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jeff061
11-15-2009, 11:41 PM
This isn't baseball. There is more to football than numbers. And far more variables.

Big Fo
11-15-2009, 11:43 PM
I wouldn't have guessed the likelihood for getting a TD from your own 30 with two minutes left would be over 50%.
I always find it surprising how efficently some teams run a 2-minute drill, especially just before the half. You see them sputter on offense all half, and then suddenly a no-huddle, all-pass 2-minute drill has them putting points on the board.

It's 30%, for some reason I remembered it wrong despite reading it just minutes ago. Still it's a fairly impressive number.

Antmeister
11-15-2009, 11:51 PM
Even before reading that, I didn't think it was a particularly stupid decision. Like it says, you make those 2 yards and you win the game. It's easier to gain 2 yards than it is to stop a Peyton Manning 2-minute drill IMO.

If it works, you're a genius, if it doesn't, you're crucified.

I'm fascinated by this. I don't have a dog in this fight, but if any other coach would have done this, no one would have looked at it this way. New England had the ball on their side of the field, was leading by more than a field goal, already had two picks off Manning and would have possibly had to have made Manning go 60+ yards with one timeout (and could have been none if they didn't pass two times beforehand). Regardless, wouldn't you take your chances on defense since Indianapolis needed that touchdown and was most likely going to be one-dimensional for a majority of the drive?

bhlloy
11-16-2009, 12:10 AM
Plus you guys are missing a big variable IMO in that the two minute warning and change of possession would have cancelled each other out and the Colts only had one time out left - plus a punt would have taken at least another 5 seconds off the clock. I'm not sure how the WP would be affected taking those two things into account but I'm pretty confident that the % of teams that have to drive 60+ yards in 1:50 and can only stop the clock once is not as high as 30%. I still think it's a dumb decision, but it is an interesting read.

EagleFan
11-16-2009, 12:12 AM
Even before reading that, I didn't think it was a particularly stupid decision. Like it says, you make those 2 yards and you win the game. It's easier to gain 2 yards than it is to stop a Peyton Manning 2-minute drill IMO.

If it works, you're a genius, if it doesn't, you're crucified.

The Colts still had a timeout left so even if they made it they would have still needed another first down to win the game.

Groundhog
11-16-2009, 12:19 AM
I'm fascinated by this. I don't have a dog in this fight, but if any other coach would have done this, no one would have looked at it this way. New England had the ball on their side of the field, was leading by more than a field goal, already had two picks off Manning and would have possibly had to have made Manning go 60+ yards with one timeout (and could have been none if they didn't pass two times beforehand). Regardless, wouldn't you take your chances on defense since Indianapolis needed that touchdown and was most likely going to be one-dimensional for a majority of the drive?

If I were coaching I'd have punted it away and trusted my defense, yes. At the same time, if I were watching the game and the Patriots punted it, I'd consider it a pretty good chance that Manning drives his team the length of the field and wins the game. If they didn't I'd actually be surprised to be honest.

So I see where he was coming from is all. If it was the Redskins that attempted that play, I'd probably be LOL'ing along with everyone else though, so I guess prestige does play a part in me thinking the way I do about that decision.

Groundhog
11-16-2009, 12:19 AM
The Colts still had a timeout left so even if they made it they would have still needed another first down to win the game.

Sure, but you've run it down so far that you'd be punting out of bounds and then basically just defending against a hail mary.

EagleFan
11-16-2009, 12:27 AM
Sure, but you've run it down so far that you'd be punting out of bounds and then basically just defending against a hail mary.

Same as the Eagles gme, they would have about 30 seconds. Enough time for 4 plays and maybe 5.

molson
11-16-2009, 12:42 AM
Exactly if you dont have enough confidence in your defense to stop them from going 60-80 yards with 1 timeout left why the hell not just let them score and go for the game winning FG. Something about that whole thing didnt make sense.

Just finished watching the game - I was really surprised they didn't let them score on that first play, that's the only way going for it on 4th down makes sense.

As someone else said, if they punt there, I expect Manning to win the game, and I expect him to take all of the clock with him. I figured this way, even if they don't get the 4th down, then I definitely like Brady's chances with 1:45 or whatever when they only need a field goal.

Ah well, I think going for it on 4th and short is a good move more often than football coaches actually do it. The game's not over if they get that two years, but at worst, Manning just has a couple second left and zero timeouts.

larrymcg421
11-16-2009, 12:54 AM
There's nothing wrong with the decision to go for it on 4th and 2. If they make it, they win. That's a high percentage chance with Tom Brady.

The problem is (as has been pointed out above) that they didn't leave themselves any time on the clock. Now I don't agree that you let them score from the 30. But they tackled Addai twice at or near the 1 yard line.

It's sort of the reverse of the situation I described earlier with Maurice-Jones Drew. Here you are weighing your chances of stopping the Colts three straight times when they only need one yard versus giving Tom Brady 1 minute or so to get into FG range. I think almost anyone would take the latter. Once Addai got inside the 5, the only defense they should have been playing was to try and strip the ball.

JonInMiddleGA
11-16-2009, 12:59 AM
Hmm, I wonder if Belichick was using this handy device tonight
http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/files/2009/11/spinner.JPG

stevew
11-16-2009, 02:13 AM
I don't get how teams will let the opposition nickle and dime them down the field. If I trust my offense, I would play very aggressive defense inside the last 2-3 minutes. If for some reason you do get burnt deep, the TD would hopefully only take a little bit of time off the clock.

Instead you're content to let them get 4 yards here, 12 there, 10 there....pretty soon they are in your red zone, and you will get the ball back with no time on the clock. Better to dial that shit up, and if you get burnt deep, so beit.

Karlifornia
11-16-2009, 02:32 AM
Yeah, I liked the call by Belichick. I was just surprised by it, as NFL coaches are renowned for their conservative decisions.

As far as the improvement of offenses in the two minute drill, I think it has something to do with adrenaline, and knowing that "this is it". When you feel like you're about to fall off something tall, your reflexes go into overdrive, and you focus solely on one thing: Not dying. I think anyone gets anything done more efficiently when urgency is involved.

fantom1979
11-16-2009, 04:47 AM
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ksxjg7CFQxA/SwDlPXh9WII/AAAAAAAAJqE/gTrgLEDaaCY/s1600/pic.jpg

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 07:27 AM
There's nothing wrong with the decision to go for it on 4th and 2. If they make it, they win. That's a high percentage chance with Tom Brady.

The problem is (as has been pointed out above) that they didn't leave themselves any time on the clock. Now I don't agree that you let them score from the 30. But they tackled Addai twice at or near the 1 yard line.


This is pretty much how I saw it. The call was ballsy, but not even the first time he's done it this season. It worked last time, and he was a genius.

The real mistakes were using the timeouts unnecessarily (something that seems to be becoming more of a habit) and tackling Addai at the one. Pats let Addai score and they've got a bunch of time to get an indoor field goal.

Dr. Sak
11-16-2009, 07:32 AM
Both the Steelers and the Pats lost :)

Too bad the Eagles suck :(

Chubby
11-16-2009, 07:55 AM
hahaha what a shithead, trying to be a "genius" cost him the game

ISiddiqui
11-16-2009, 08:28 AM
I'm just amused by Belichek's stupidity cost them the game. Giving Peyton Manning the ball at that spot in that context is ridiculously dumb. It's funny that Manning has turned into the QB that can win in any way (kind of like what Brady's rep is/was).

Arles
11-16-2009, 08:42 AM
I agree that it was a poor decision. As said above, if you punt the 2 min warning goes over the change of possession and Peyton is forced to start from his 35 (needing a TD) with 1 TO. Given he had picks in 2 of the 3-4 prior possessions, I think the odds are fairly good that NE stops them.

But even if you are thinking about going on 4th and 2, you need to run the ball on 3rd and 2. The Colts had struggled stopping the run and even if you just get one yard on 3rd and 2 - it opens a ton of options on 4th. Plus, you will get to the 2 min warning before the 4th down. Then, if it's 4th and 1, you can do a QB sneak, FB dive, HB run or even a high percentage pass. At 4th and 2, most people thought the Pats would pass. I think that also cuts down on the % for success.

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 08:43 AM
Running a route that barely crosses the first down line with no potential for a challenge also cuts down that success percentage.

To refine the point, I actually have NO problem with going for it on fourth down, its all the surrounding decisions that were fucked up that made it an issue.

Kodos
11-16-2009, 08:56 AM
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ksxjg7CFQxA/SwDlPXh9WII/AAAAAAAAJqE/gTrgLEDaaCY/s1600/pic.jpg

"I'm gonna have to start cheatin' again."

jbergey22
11-16-2009, 09:45 AM
Am I missing something in that article? If the Patriots would make it 60 percent of the time on 4th on 2(still seems high but whatever) and a team scores 30 percent of the time from the field position the article states they would have started at. Doesnt that mean punting was the right play? (70 percent chance of success vs 60 percent chance of success)

I love how they give the Colts more credit for having a great offense but disregard the Patriots strong defense.

OK now I see what I missed. They are claiming that percentage jumps to 53 percent when a team needs a TD to win or tie.(I would love to know what all is in this). No way in hell do teams starting in their own territory score over half the time when the game is on the line in 2 or less minutes. How many times did it not happen yesterday?

Besides in the first half the Patriots were down 10 and went into the 2 minute drill and were stopped 3 and out.

My numbers say Patriots were 45/55(since this is what the NFL average on 2 point conversions is) to make the 1st down and 60/40 to stop the Colts. Bellichek gave the Colts a 15 percent better chance of winning IMO. Screw these numbers I have no idea where they came from or what they consist of.

If any these numbers are really true Id have a hard time believing every team wouldnt just play every down like it was a 2 minute drill since apparently you have a 23 percent better chance of getting a TD.

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 09:47 AM
Where did your numbers come from?

The numbers you are trying to attack are actually pretty cut and dry, I'm not sure where your confusion comes from. The only real way to attack those numbers is that they are all NFL-average and not Colts/Pats specific, but considering that both the Colts and Pats are strong offensively that would only tilt the discussion towards going for it.

jbergey22
11-16-2009, 10:06 AM
Where did your numbers come from?

The numbers you are trying to attack are actually pretty cut and dry, I'm not sure where your confusion comes from. The only real way to attack those numbers is that they are all NFL-average and not Colts/Pats specific, but considering that both the Colts and Pats are strong offensively that would only tilt the discussion towards going for it.

45 percent is the league average of making 2 point conversions. Much more of an indicator of that type of situation than any common 4th and 2 when the game isnt on the line.

They come up with 53 percent as the chance the Colts score a TD there? Where did that come from? They are trying to say that inside of 2 minutes there is a 23 percent better chance of scoring a td from that same part of the field? Im not buying that.

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 10:09 AM
They come up with 53 percent as the chance the Colts score a TD there? Where did that come from? They are trying to say that inside of 2 minutes there is a 23 percent better chance of scoring from that same part of the field? Im not buying that.

They are saying that, statistically, with two minutes left and down by 4 to 7 points, teams score a touchdown 53 percent of the time when starting from the 28 yard line. I'm not sure you are allowed to not buy it, its a statistic.

jbergey22
11-16-2009, 10:14 AM
They are saying that, statistically, with two minutes left and down by 4 to 7 points, teams score a touchdown 53 percent of the time when starting from the 28 yard line. I'm not sure you are allowed to not buy it, its a statistic.

And what is the sample size? Its pretty important when making claims that a team has a 23 percent better chance of scoring in more difficult situations other than that that of a normal situation.

If Nick Punto starts next year 6 for 12 that doesnt make him a .500 hitter.

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 10:20 AM
He's saying they have a 23 percent better chance of scoring from the NE 28 than from the IND 34 with 2:00 and the game within a touchdown.

Thanks for the point about small sample size, I imagine his sample size is larger than Nick Punto's. He explicitly states that his fourth down research is based on larger sample sizes than previous studies, I imagine with the lack of statistical research in the NFL you could probably imagine that he has the largest sample size available.

jbergey22
11-16-2009, 10:24 AM
He's saying they have a 23 percent better chance of scoring from the NE 28 than from the IND 34 with 2:00 and the game within a touchdown.

Thanks for the point about small sample size, I imagine his sample size is larger than Nick Punto's. He explicitly states that his fourth down research is based on larger sample sizes than previous studies, I imagine with the lack of statistical research in the NFL you could probably imagine that he has the largest sample size available.


"A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP."

Im fine with the 4th down research. Id use 2 point conversions as a percentage because I doubt the Colts are worried about a deep threat when the game is being decided on that play. Im sure the Colts would have been fine with the Pats chucking one 40 yards down the field in that situaton.

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 10:25 AM
Yes, that's what I said. 53% from the NE 28, 30% from the IND 34.

Arles
11-16-2009, 10:37 AM
I think the best course to win would have been:

1. With 2:11 left, run the ball on 3rd and 2. If you get the first, great. If you get a yard, it makes the 4th down easier. Even if you get stuffed, you hit the 2 minute warning and can think about what to do on 4th (save your own TO and take away the 2 min warning from Manning).

2. If you didn't get it on 3rd, it's 4th down at the 2 Min warning. If it's 4th and 1, I can see maybe going for it. But I would probably still punt if it's more than inches. So, after the punt and change of possession, Manning probably has to go 65-70 yards with 1 TO and 1:50ish left.

The key to me is not running on 3rd and 2. I think you have to draw up a quick hit power run on that play with multiple TEs and try to get atleast a yard if you are thinking about on going on 4th down.

jbergey22
11-16-2009, 10:38 AM
Yes, that's what I said. 53% from the NE 28, 30% from the IND 34.

Oh ok, sorry I was confused on the 53 percent part. I was thinking they meant from the Indy 34 which made no sense at all.

So if we run the numbers with 45 percent converstion rate instead of 60 does that still make it the correct call?

I realize the stats on 4th downs are correct however its much different converting a 4th and 2 down 10 at your own 28 rather that the situation we seen last night. Being the game was being decided on that play the colts had to be very aggressive much like stopping a 2 point conversion.

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 10:40 AM
You may have a point that not all 4th and 2s are equivalent, but I'm not sure that using 2 point conversions is the right way to attack it. I definitely understand your point, but goal line defense vs. open field defense (even if a downfield attack is unlikely) are two very different beasts.

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 10:41 AM
I think the best course to win would have been:

1. With 2:11 left, run the ball on 3rd and 2. If you get the first, great. If you get a yard, it makes the 4th down easier. Even if you get stuffed, you hit the 2 minute warning and can think about what to do on 4th (save your own TO and take away the 2 min warning from Manning).

2. If you didn't get it on 3rd, it's 4th down at the 2 Min warning. If it's 4th and 1, I can see maybe going for it. But I would probably still punt if it's more than inches. So, after the punt and change of possession, Manning probably has to go 65-70 yards with 1 TO and 1:50ish left.

The key to me is not running on 3rd and 2. I think you have to draw up a quick hit power run on that play with multiple TEs and try to get atleast a yard if you are thinking about on going on 4th down.

The fact that it played out as it did makes me think that the decision to go for it was impulsive and not well thought out. If the plan was always to go for it, a run on third down is a no brainer.

Arles
11-16-2009, 10:44 AM
IMO, a run on third down is a no brainer even if you intend to punt. You want to take the 2 min warning or Indy's last TO out of the picture. It's just too risky to pass when everyone on Indy will be jumping the short route. The clock is just as much of a factor as yardage and the risk of an incomplete pass is killer on 3rd and 2.

Noop
11-16-2009, 10:53 AM
It was not a stupid decision but I am glad the Patriots lost.

Young Drachma
11-16-2009, 11:01 AM
Who'll Drink from the Hampton Cup on Sunday? : New York Jets Week 10 (http://www.newyorkjets.com/news/articles/show/3408-who-ll-drink-from-the-hampton-cup-on-sunday-)

I was wondering what Maurice Jones-Drew was carrying after the game. This explains it.

Radii
11-16-2009, 12:13 PM
ESPN on in the background while I'm working, the following ticker item just ran by:

"Breaking News: Former Chiefs RB Larry Johnson expected to sign today with Bengals"

DataKing
11-16-2009, 12:27 PM
'Monday Night Football' analyst Jon Gruden agrees to multiyear contract extension with ESPN - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4659441)

Sweet. I have to say, while he's prone to exaggeration, I've really enjoyed listening to Gruden during games this year.

Radii
11-16-2009, 12:28 PM
ESPN on in the background while I'm working, the following ticker item just ran by:

"Breaking News: Former Chiefs RB Larry Johnson expected to sign today with Bengals"

Source: Johnson expects to sign with Bengals - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4660283)

Ronnie Dobbs2
11-16-2009, 12:28 PM
Sweet. I have to say, while he's prone to exaggeration, I've really enjoyed listening to Gruden during games this year.

He exaggerates roughly 5000 times a broadcast.

Kodos
11-16-2009, 12:39 PM
Good for him. Gotta believe being an announcer is a sweeter gig than coaching. Has to be a lot less stress involved.

JPhillips
11-16-2009, 12:50 PM
ESPN on in the background while I'm working, the following ticker item just ran by:

"Breaking News: Former Chiefs RB Larry Johnson expected to sign today with Bengals"

NOOOOOOO!

Daimyo
11-16-2009, 02:21 PM
Im fine with the 4th down research. Id use 2 point conversions as a percentage because I doubt the Colts are worried about a deep threat when the game is being decided on that play. Im sure the Colts would have been fine with the Pats chucking one 40 yards down the field in that situaton.

With 2 pt conversions the pass defense only has to cover about 10 yards and has the back of the endzone on its side. The Colts had to defend the entire field. I don't think the 2-pt conversion rate is really applicable here.

Big Fo
11-16-2009, 03:00 PM
I just caught TB-MIA highlights for the first time, what an awful pick for Henne to throw up six with so little time remaining. At least he recovered and had a few good ones on the winning drive shortly after and Ricky's 20+ yard run was huge.

Arles
11-16-2009, 03:56 PM
With 2 pt conversions the pass defense only has to cover about 10 yards and has the back of the endzone on its side. The Colts had to defend the entire field. I don't think the 2-pt conversion rate is really applicable here.
I would gather that a lot of 2-point conversions are done when the offense is in a state of panic (a la onside kicks) and the defense has a nice cushion. It's one of those things were the offense needs a TD, 2-point, onside kick and another TD to tie.

For example, if Dallas had gone for 2 against GB yesterday when the score was 17-6 and less than a minute left (as Troy Aikman recommended) - it's a completely different situation than the Colts/Pats play. The Packers wouldn't have cared all that much on D as they still would have needed 2 additional scores in a minute. That's not going to be the same level of defensive intensity/focus as the Colts D would have on the 4th and 2.

Again, it's like looking at %s for a 3rd and 5 when the team is tied in the fourth or when it is down by 3 TDs late in the game. It's a much different situation. I'd be more interested in 2-point conversions that would tie or take the lead than the chance one works when the offense is down 14+ points. I'm not sure how to separate these factors when looking at the percentages being thrown around today.

Daimyo
11-16-2009, 04:41 PM
The thing that really stuck out to me about the end of the Colts-Pats game was how disorganized New England looked in the final drive and their lack of confidence. In that situation they should have come out composed and confident. You get the ball on your opponents 20-yard line with a 6 point lead and 2:30 left in the game and you're at least an 80% favorite to win. Good teams thrive in those situations.

Instead New England came out looking scared and disorganized, like they were the underdogs. How do you call two timeouts on that drive if you're New England? How do you not run up the middle on 3rd-and-2 if you know you're in a 4 down situation and you're trying to run out the clock? How do you run only 2-yard routes on 3rd and 4th down when you need 2 yards for the first down?

I don't question the decision to go for it on 4th-and-2. It was almost certainly the play with the highest expected value. But I do question just about everything else about that possession.

jbergey22
11-16-2009, 07:35 PM
Sorry Browns fans but why exactly is this game on Monday Night? I cant think of a worse football game to end the week. I cant see this being anything other than a 21+ point Ravens win.

Abe Sargent
11-16-2009, 07:50 PM
Have they shown the Dog Pound yet to see what happened with the protest?

CleBrownsfan
11-16-2009, 07:52 PM
Sorry Browns fans but why exactly is this game on Monday Night? I cant think of a worse football game to end the week. I cant see this being anything other than a 21+ point Ravens win.

I'm embarrassed that we get to "show case" this debacle tonight

tucker rocky
11-16-2009, 08:13 PM
Wrestling might be more entertaining than this steaming pile of a MNF game.

bhlloy
11-16-2009, 08:29 PM
Holy crap. I know it's a pretty subjective stat but still, that is absolutely incredible when you consider how advanced the game is offensively in the last 20 years (the last team to score as few TD's as the Browns have in their last 14 games were the 32/33 St. Louis Browns, who were so bad they folded after that season)

Oh, and why does Steven Hauschka still have a job in this league? If the Ravens lose this by less than 6 that's three games he's cost them this year already. Leg doesn't matter if you aren't accurate from 40 on in.

DataKing
11-16-2009, 08:52 PM
http://home.comcast.net/%7Ej.hoag/Smileys/sleep.gif

stevew
11-16-2009, 09:01 PM
I can't believe they are booth reviewing this touchback. When Cleveland is going to kneel it out.

BishopMVP
11-16-2009, 09:03 PM
There's nothing wrong with the decision to go for it on 4th and 2. If they make it, they win. That's a high percentage chance with Tom Brady.

The problem is (as has been pointed out above) that they didn't leave themselves any time on the clock. Now I don't agree that you let them score from the 30. But they tackled Addai twice at or near the 1 yard line.

It's sort of the reverse of the situation I described earlier with Maurice-Jones Drew. Here you are weighing your chances of stopping the Colts three straight times when they only need one yard versus giving Tom Brady 1 minute or so to get into FG range. I think almost anyone would take the latter. Once Addai got inside the 5, the only defense they should have been playing was to try and strip the ball.Part of the reason they may not have was the 2003? game where Willie McGinest stuffed Addai on the goal line to win 38-34. If they were up 2 points or less they certainly should (and would imo) have let him score, but up 6 I can see the argument that a goal-line stand is possible.hahaha what a shithead, trying to be a "genius" cost him the gameHmmmm.... playing the percentages rather than acceding to conservative NFL groupthink is a bad thing? Ironic coming from a message board centered around FOF. (And like others said last page, there were a number of bad decisions on that drive - going for it on 4th and 2 probably wasn't one of them.)

bhlloy
11-16-2009, 09:43 PM
Wow, the Browns offense has actually made me stop hating Brady Quinn with every fiber of my being and made me just feel sorry for him. Can the Browns blow the team up and ask to be entered into the Expansion Draft again? Other than Joe Thomas is there anybody on the entire team you would actually want to be starting on your favorite franchise?

larrymcg421
11-16-2009, 09:44 PM
Part of the reason they may not have was the 2003? game where Willie McGinest stuffed Addai on the goal line to win 38-34. If they were up 2 points or less they certainly should (and would imo) have let him score, but up 6 I can see the argument that a goal-line stand is possible.

I don't remember the circumstances of that game, but this required several stops. They ended up with 1st and goal from the 1. Also is the fact that if Belichik doesn't have the confidence that his team could prevent Manning from going 80 yards, why would he have the confidence they could prevent them from going 1 yard in 4 plays?

Lathum
11-16-2009, 09:45 PM
Anyone else get the feeling Gruden wants the Browns to throw the ball down the field?

jbergey22
11-16-2009, 09:50 PM
I don't remember the circumstances of that game, but this required several stops. They ended up with 1st and goal from the 1. Also is the fact that if Belichik doesn't have the confidence that his team could prevent Manning from going 80 yards, why would he have the confidence they could prevent them from going 1 yard in 4 plays?

Just to add after the Pats didnt make the 4th down ALL the momentum was on the Colts side. If they had punted they still had lost the momentum however a couple of big plays and they could have gotten some back. The game was lost as soon as the Pats came up a half yard short IMO.

NFL games follow momentum just like any other professional sport and once its lost its hard to recover.

Who knows Bellichek knows his team and maybe he thought the only way to win that game at that point was with his offense and he may have been right.

stevew
11-16-2009, 09:54 PM
Wow, the Browns offense has actually made me stop hating Brady Quinn with every fiber of my being and made me just feel sorry for him. Can the Browns blow the team up and ask to be entered into the Expansion Draft again? Other than Joe Thomas is there anybody on the entire team you would actually want to be starting on your favorite franchise?

Cribbs, Rogers, Mack, Steinbach. But that's about it.

bhlloy
11-16-2009, 10:02 PM
I don't remember the circumstances of that game, but this required several stops. They ended up with 1st and goal from the 1. Also is the fact that if Belichik doesn't have the confidence that his team could prevent Manning from going 80 yards, why would he have the confidence they could prevent them from going 1 yard in 4 plays?

Exactly. If you are playing the percentages that the 4th and 2 gives you a better shot than giving Manning the ball back that's fine (and I'm coming around to the board's thinking on that even though I think the odds are closer to a wash than people are stating), you can't then turn around and ignore the huge likelihood of a team scoring on 1st and goal from inside the 2 yard line.

BishopMVP
11-16-2009, 10:03 PM
I don't remember the circumstances of that game, but this required several stops. They ended up with 1st and goal from the 1. Also is the fact that if Belichik doesn't have the confidence that his team could prevent Manning from going 80 yards, why would he have the confidence they could prevent them from going 1 yard in 4 plays?Almost the same circumstance. Colts drive starting at the NE 47 down 38-34 with 2:57 to go.
And that last stand began on a first-and-goal from the New England 2. James ran at right tackle for 1 yard. James ran up the middle for no gain. Timeout Colts. Manning threw an incomplete pass.
James meets McGinest.
Game over.
''The Colts live and die with the big play,'' Patriots cornerback Ty Law said. ''They can lose 2 yards and then hit you with 20. But as the field shortens up, when you get down in the red zone and there is only so much field left to play with, we get tougher and we get tighter. In a situation like that, 1 yard can seem like 100.''It could go both ways - even I was saying they should have let Addai score on the 1st one when there was 1:15-1:30 left on the clock. But almost the exact same thing happened in the past, with the Pats D winning. Either way, with the Jets losing this was only huge for home-field purposes - and I think we showed we could play with them in Indy (particularly if their entire secondary is still injured.)

Kodos
11-16-2009, 10:21 PM
Holy awkwardness, Batman.

stevew
11-16-2009, 10:47 PM
Cribbs leaves the field on a stretcher. Hopefully he will be okay

Quinn is such a pile of shit too. Although he probably could have converted that 4th and 2 vs the colts. He throws a mean 2 yard pass.

Arles
11-16-2009, 11:12 PM
I heard tonight's game will be replayed tomorrow on ESPN classic for those who missed it.

Groundhog
11-16-2009, 11:16 PM
Hopefully the Lions and Browns can meet on a Monday night next season!

Samdari
11-17-2009, 07:13 AM
Wow, the Browns offense has actually made me stop hating Brady Quinn with every fiber of my being and made me just feel sorry for him. Can the Browns blow the team up and ask to be entered into the Expansion Draft again? Other than Joe Thomas is there anybody on the entire team you would actually want to be starting on your favorite franchise?

Shaun Rogers is an elite caliber NT, a tough position to find. The other guys Stevew mentioned I'd want on my team too.

Maiva has looked good since taking over for backup caliber Eric Barton, and D'Quell Jackson is an NFL starter (albeit out for the year). David Veikune was the Browns best player during preseason, but they won't put him on the field when every other LB is injured?

Moreso even than lack of talent, the lack of effort and fight in the Browns was apparent to me. Anyone with the ball in their hand dove to the ground at first contact last night (especially Quinn). Noone fought to get off blocks, hold blocks, break tackles, get open - anything. They have absolutely quit.

RedKingGold
11-17-2009, 07:57 AM
I thought the Browns defense was pretty good. Heck, even last night they held a pretty decent offense to low production.

That offense is just, well, offensive.

I normally don't listen to Mike & Mike, but did so this morning on an odd chance. They had a relatively humorous stat that the last NFL team who had 5 offensive touchdown in 15 games or so was the Cincinnati Reds in 1933 and they were disbanded after that season.

jbergey22
11-17-2009, 07:58 AM
Brady Quinn is a bust. I hate to admit it because I thought he was going to be good and actually wanted the Vikings to take him instead of AP with the 7th pick in the 07 draft sadly enough. He plays with no confidence.

And I agree with RkG that the defense is actually pretty decent. Ive seen them hold teams in check for first halves and likely get tired from being on the field the majority of the game in the 2nd half.

RendeR
11-17-2009, 09:29 AM
Cribbs leaves the field on a stretcher. Hopefully he will be okay

Quinn is such a pile of shit too. Although he probably could have converted that 4th and 2 vs the colts. He throws a mean 2 yard pass.

Nevermind, I just found a writeup. I heard it wrong I guess.

stevew
11-17-2009, 10:00 AM
Eric Wright is decent too.

cougarfreak
11-17-2009, 04:47 PM
Brady Quinn is a bust. I hate to admit it because I thought he was going to be good and actually wanted the Vikings to take him instead of AP with the 7th pick in the 07 draft sadly enough. He plays with no confidence.

And I agree with RkG that the defense is actually pretty decent. Ive seen them hold teams in check for first halves and likely get tired from being on the field the majority of the game in the 2nd half.

Would you play with confidence in the situation he's in?

Apathetic Lurker
11-17-2009, 04:57 PM
And Jauron is thrown out with the bathwater

MacroGuru
11-17-2009, 05:58 PM
And Jauron is thrown out with the bathwater

There will be a major overhaul here next year. I am excited for it as it has to happen...we need a coach with fire.

jbergey22
11-17-2009, 05:59 PM
Would you play with confidence in the situation he's in?

Probably not

RainMaker
11-17-2009, 06:02 PM
As a Bears fan, Jauron is a horrible coach. I am shocked he has been able to keep that job for so long.

rowech
11-17-2009, 06:23 PM
As a Bears fan, Jauron is a horrible coach. I am shocked he has been able to keep that job for so long.

I'm continuously amazed at how many crappy coaches get 2nd, 3rd, and in some cases 4th chances to destroy a team.

jbergey22
11-17-2009, 06:40 PM
I'm continuously amazed at how many crappy coaches get 2nd, 3rd, and in some cases 4th chances to destroy a team.

It does seem like bad teams just keep passing around crappy coaches. Slow learners I guess.