WW LXXXVI - The Charmed Ones (Game Over - Innocents Win)

[EagleFan]

As of post 250:

Chief Rum 5 - Barkeep49 (214), jeheinz72 (240), hoopsguy (244), Lathum (245), RendeR (246)
Barkeep49 4 - Chief Rum (210), Danny (213), PackerFanatic (219), Chubby (225)

[Barkeep49]

Why does everyone keep saying that CR revealed before deadline? He threatened to reveal right before deadline, but then didn't actually do until almost 3 hours later (post #192), after all was said and done. Sure, I still don't know why he felt it important to reveal so early in the game, but that is his play and I believe him.

Is he really going to "Don't make me reveal..." and then reveal as a villager? I say no, he's not. And why even threaten to reveal? He was, at that moment, in NO danger. All he needed to do was cast his vote.

[Lathum]

I'm out for a while, I would be curious to discuss the concept of a tie at further length.

[Chubby]

I'm not a fan of a tie.

Heading back out for more xmas shopping but what I want to know from the people is if they are voting for CR then why was there no kill last night?

I'm kind of closer to not knowing what is going on vs this morning (I thought this morning it was a no brainer but now not sure at all) but I'm very curious about the votes on CR before I move (if I do)

[The Jackal]

vote BK

[jeheinz72]

Why does everyone keep saying that CR revealed before deadline? He threatened to reveal right before deadline, but then didn't actually do until almost 3 hours later (post #192), after all was said and done. Sure, I still don't know why he felt it important to reveal so early in the game, but that is his play and I believe him.

Basically saying he can and will reveal is as good as a reveal at that moment in time.

It's like flashing a big sign that says "Don't vote for me, don't switch your vote to me last minute but oh, I'm not going to tell you actually WHY until later"

He basically marked himself as a huge night target with what realistically if he was a villager, there wasn't much reason to do.

[jeheinz72]

I'm not a fan of a tie.

Heading back out for more xmas shopping but what I want to know from the people is if they are voting for CR then why was there no kill last night?

I'm kind of closer to not knowing what is going on vs this morning (I thought this morning it was a no brainer but now not sure at all) but I'm very curious about the votes on CR before I move (if I do)

My theory on that is that CR's story is true, he's just swapped the players in it. I'd surmise that CR attacked BK, who is Leo, and was seen (and was told he was seen). Since his reveal was half-done he just finished it off since he knew he'd be under duress anyhow and doing so will give him the 1st-revealer benefit of the doubt that we've already seen some people give him.

Granted, that's pure theory and I have *zero* fact to base it on, but it's a completely plausible play.

[EagleFan]

As of post 256:

Chief Rum 5 - Barkeep49 (214), jeheinz72 (240), hoopsguy (244), Lathum (245), RendeR (246)
Barkeep49 5 - Chief Rum (210), Danny (213), PackerFanatic (219), Chubby (225), The Jackal (255)

[jeheinz72]

I'm out for a while, I would be curious to discuss the concept of a tie at further length.

I don't think I'm a fan of a tie, at least not with my internal thoughts on Pro's and Con's. I mean let's say we effectively check here. What's to stop the wolves from just going off the map for the next night kill? Then we're right back where we started for tomorrow's vote with the issue unresolved and now we're down another villager. What's worse is if they do that, I'd bet they have a pretty whittled list of possibilities of who might hold our other roled villager spots.

I think we have to break this egg, even if we're wrong, we've got a clear lynch for tomorrow and I think that is something we have to maintain.

I'd give my ever famous "I'm not going to allow a tie" line, but while I'm working late today, I still won't be around at deadline.

[RendeR]

I distinctly dislike Jackal's voting us into a tie. Depending on the result of the lynch (assuming we do get a lynch) it pus jackal up high on my list of suspects.

My vote really isn't FOR Rummy, its not against him either. At this point we have two people with identical stories. One of them is obviously lying. We lynch one, we find out who that is.

I voted for Chief because I already had voted for chief yesterday. might as well see it through.


Chief turns up bad: My vote then falls on jackal tomorrow.

Chief turns out good, we all vote BK tomorrow.

Seems simple enough at this point.

[Danny]

Unvote Barkeep
Vote ChiefRum

I will not let us have a tie, if we do, the wolves will kill a different villager and then we are back where we were at down 1 more villager. I still think objectively it is more likely Chief is telling the truth, but a tie is the worst result we could have.

[Danny]

Another reason voting Chief off first may make sense. If he is bad, it tells us a lot about day 1 and we have a lot to go on for the following day. If bk is bad and we lynch him, it tells us nothing from day 1.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, feel free to change the vote back if it is for tie-breaking purposes.

I just put the vote on Rum to see what kind of movement might emerge behind it. I'm going to be voting for Barkeep tonight.

[hoopsguy]

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE BARKEEP

[jeheinz72]

Hoops, if you're around, what are you seeing that maybe I"m missing

[hoopsguy]

1.) The amount of complexity involved in Chief Rum making up the story.

2.) The fact that he revealed that Chief revealed that he cannot guard himself tonight, thus taking away his out (if he was a bluffing wolf) for being alive on D3.

3.) My feeling that BK's indicated "reveal" was nothing of the sort, but only best effort to find something that could be used later.

4.) The fact that BK has not made an effort to dispute details of Chief's account if he in fact feels that his role had been assumed by a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Finally, we are going to learn about the D1 vote by no later than the end of Day 3, barring any really strange stuff going on with roles. Because Chief is going to be dead one way or another. Right????

[jeheinz72]

I'm going to try and re-read again, sans the likely blinders, and see if it's worth it to me to break the tie.

[Danny]

I agree that is makes more sense that Chief is telling the truth and since there won't be a tie, I will switch back.

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote Barkeep

[Danny]

Finally, we are going to learn about the D1 vote by no later than the end of Day 3, barring any really strange stuff going on with roles. Because Chief is going to be dead one way or another. Right????

You're right, my train of thought there was not very good.

[Danny]

Chief Rum 4 - Barkeep49 (214), jeheinz72 (240), Lathum (245), RendeR (246)
Barkeep49 6 - Chief Rum (210), PackerFanatic (219), Chubby (225), The Jackal (255) Hoopsguy (264) Danny (269)

At this point if any villager a late switch off BK to vote CR you will pretty much be linking yourself to CR in the case he is bad. If you are a villager, you shouldn't be doing this unless multiple switches are going to happen.

[jeheinz72]

Re-reading it's tough. This all would be made so much easier if CR didn't needlessly reveal at deadline.

I'll set this in stone here though, I think I've got a better read on things this time.

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote Barkeep49

[EagleFan]

As of post 272:

Barkeep49 7 - Chief Rum (210), Danny (269), PackerFanatic (219), Chubby (225), The Jackal (255). hoopsguy (264). jeheinz72 (272)
Chief Rum 3 - Barkeep49 (214), Lathum (245), RendeR (246)

[Chubby]

I distinctly dislike Jackal's voting us into a tie. Depending on the result of the lynch (assuming we do get a lynch) it pus jackal up high on my list of suspects.

My vote really isn't FOR Rummy, its not against him either. At this point we have two people with identical stories. One of them is obviously lying. We lynch one, we find out who that is.

I voted for Chief because I already had voted for chief yesterday. might as well see it through.


Chief turns up bad: My vote then falls on jackal tomorrow.

Chief turns out good, we all vote BK tomorrow.

Seems simple enough at this point.

I actually like this train of thought... what about the converse?

BK turns out good: vote Chief
BK turns out bad: ???

[jeheinz72]

I'm outta here gents...

[EagleFan]

deadline

[hoopsguy]

Tick tock.

[EagleFan]

After yet another sressful day accusation are running wild. Chief Rum speaks up first. "I was attacked. I think I know who it was. It was Barkeep, he attacked me last night. I survived because I am a white lighter, a guardian angel."

"Lies!" claims Barkeep. "He attacked me last night. I am Leo."

The debate began. Who is telling the truth? Who is lying? One must go. We have a 50/50 shot at getting an attacker. It went back and forth. Who dies first? If we are right we may have eliminated the evil which holds us here. We may be able to get back to our lives.

Finally the crowd decides upon Barkeep. If he is not evil we will go after Chief Rum. The crowd begins to form and track down Barkeep. As they near him he begins to chant. A swirl of smoke begins to fill the room. A spirit arises next to him and takes form. That spirit raises a croww bow and without warning fires a shot.

Chief Rum is hit in the chest and drops to the floor.

The spirit quickly fades. Barkeep laughs "Fools, you will not survive! Everyone will die!!!"

The crowd now forms into a mob an fear is replaced with fury. They swarm toward Barkeep. In a flash he is gone. Where? You turn around as he unleashes a bolt of fire from his hand. It soars past the crowd, nearly striking several of you and crashes into the waitress and she is instantly vaporized.

Th crowd charges again. Again Barkeep vanishes. He pops up at the bar behind everyone again.

"Enough!!!" A loud crash is heard and he drops to the ground. The bouncer was behind him as he materialized and taking a Hank Aaron swing with his baseball bat took Barkeep off his feet.

Before anyone can react the bouncer plunges the knife which had earlier killed the bartender through the chest of Barkeep. The crowd rushed towards him only to witness Barkeep turn to ash. You have killed him. Is the evil gone?

You try to leave the club but cannot. Your nightmare continues but you have eliminated one of the deadliest beasts you will ever encounter. The Source is dead.

You remember Chief Rum and rush to his side. It is too late. He is dead. Upon searching his body you find dog tags from WW2 with a name on it... Leo. He was a white lighter, a guardian angel.

[EagleFan]

Night 2 begins, deadline 11 PM EST.

[Chubby]

well I'm glad my guy reaction was right. Nice to get the source, a big bummer we had to lose Leo tho :(

[Danny]

Good to see we made the right call on Barkeep, too bad he took down Chief Rum which gives them another night kill now.

I think we have to put some trust into Hoopsguy. He could have easily stayed on Chief Rum and I would have been the one who looked bad because I switched. Instead he made the switch allowing me to also and avoid the tie.

[hoopsguy]

So day 1 was a waste, at least the final votes. Maybe there is something to be found on votes on Lathum earlier, or trying to discern "known good" on the candidates. But obviously it ended as villager/villager.

If I was the seer I would take a longer look at the people who made the move over to Barkeep when it looked like he might be saved. I was mildly surprised to see as much of a swing as there was over to Chief Rum in the votes.

Going from memory, I believe that Jackal laid down a fairly late vote on Barkeep when the outcome was in doubt. So he probably deserves a fair amount of trust for this.

For the seer, I would start with the voters on Chief Rum in Post #258 when considering a scan. I do not think, for the reasons that Danny outlined, that I'm the best option here to scan but I'm fine if you want to do it. However, I would add Danny to the list to scan as he did switch his vote over to Chief Rum to break the tie just after Post #258.

So, the people I would be considering would be Heinz, Lathum, RendeR, and Danny. Personally, I do not have all of these guys rated equally but I'll wait to see what the deadline brings before trying to sort them out. I'm hoping we have the remaining wolves in that group. If not, good job by them of not over-reaching to try and save BK.

[Danny]

So day 1 was a waste, at least the final votes. Maybe there is something to be found on votes on Lathum earlier, or trying to discern "known good" on the candidates. But obviously it ended as villager/villager.

If I was the seer I would take a longer look at the people who made the move over to Barkeep when it looked like he might be saved. I was mildly surprised to see as much of a swing as there was over to Chief Rum in the votes.

Going from memory, I believe that Jackal laid down a fairly late vote on Barkeep when the outcome was in doubt. So he probably deserves a fair amount of trust for this.

For the seer, I would start with the voters on Chief Rum in Post #258 when considering a scan. I do not think, for the reasons that Danny outlined, that I'm the best option here to scan but I'm fine if you want to do it. However, I would add Danny to the list to scan as he did switch his vote over to Chief Rum to break the tie just after Post #258.

So, the people I would be considering would be Heinz, Lathum, RendeR, and Danny. Personally, I do not have all of these guys rated equally but I'll wait to see what the deadline brings before trying to sort them out. I'm hoping we have the remaining wolves in that group. If not, good job by them of not over-reaching to try and save BK.

This is good analysis for our scan. If there was more than two wolves I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was here and the other an early vote for barkeep thinking they could get in early on what they thought might be a run.
Of course I am on Hoopsguy list and I was the second original vote for BK, so I fit under both categories.

[hoopsguy]

This is good analysis for our scan. If there was more than two wolves I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was here and the other an early vote for barkeep thinking they could get in early on what they thought might be a run.
Of course I am on Hoopsguy list and I was the second original vote for BK, so I fit under both categories.

Danny, if you have some time on your hands (I'm actually working from home tonight) would you be able to take a look at the vote history from the first two days? This would include the "unvotes', as they may be interesting for both days.

[Danny]

So building upon Hoopsguy lists, I think there are the two groups

Danny, PackerFanatic and Chubby
Heinz, Lathum, Render and Danny

[Danny]

Danny, if you have some time on your hands (I'm actually working from home tonight) would you be able to take a look at the vote history from the first two days? This would include the "unvotes', as they may be interesting for both days.

Sure

[Danny]

Day 1

Barkeep votes Hannibal (#79)
The Jackal votes Hannibal (#83)
Hannibal votes Barkeep (#86)
Danny votes Lathum (#96)
Packer Fanatic votes Chief Rum (#97)
Lathum votes Hannibal (#101)
jeheinz votes Chief Rum (#109)
Render votes Chief Rum (#111)
Hannibal unvotes BK abd votes Lathum (#118)
Chubby votes jeheinz (133)
Chubby unvotes jeheinz and votes Chief Rum (138)
Danny unvotes Lathum and votes Hannibal (140)
Hannibal unvotes Lathum and votes CR (146)
Hoopsguy votes Hannibal (152)
Chief Rum votes Hannibal Lecter (166)

Day 2


Chief Rum votes Barkeep (#210)
Danny votes Barkeep (#213)
Barkeep votes Chief Rum (#214)
Packer Fanatic votes Barkeep (#219)
Chubby votes Barkeep (#225)
jeheinz votes Chief Rum (#240)
Hoopsguy votes Chief Rum (#244)
Lathum votes Chief Rum (#245)
Render votes Chief Rum (#246)
jackal votes Barkeep (#255)
Danny unvotes Barkeep and votes Chief Rum (#261)
Hoopsguy unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#264)
Danny unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#269)
jeheinz unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#272)

[RendeR]

Gah, talk about a rough lynch. Is it just me or are we as a village in the midst of a nasty losing streak?

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, I did not feel that way. We got an important bad guy and should have some kind of path to finding the other bad guys.

That said, the last few games the wolves have taken it to the villagers. Hopefully we are in position to change that in the very near future.

[Danny]

I was happy with the lynch as well. Getting a wolf on day two is a good thing.

[The Jackal]

Still pissed at me for voting BK, RendeR? ;)

I didn't want to put us in a tie but I didn't think CR was bad.

[hoopsguy]

I'm interested to see what happens with this night action.

[hoopsguy]

Still pissed at me for voting BK, RendeR? ;)

I didn't want to put us in a tie but I didn't think CR was bad.

Knowing that I was going to switch, I was very pleased to see you put your vote there at that point in time. Welcome to my near-trust list.

[The Jackal]

We should be able to build up a decent near-trust list based on voting analysis movin forwards.

[EagleFan]

About 10 minutes until the night move deadline. Glad to see there weren't any recent questions to answer. Have been watching the Victoria Secret fashion show so my mind has been wondering. ;)

[EagleFan]

Night move deadline. Results shortly.

[EagleFan]

Everyone tried to settle in for the night, or everyone appears to. Thenight is quiet, almost too quiet. There are a few sounds heard but nothing that seems out of the ordinary.

As day breaks you begin to gather to see if everyone is okay. Danny? Where is Danny?

You being to search frantically. Maybe he is still asleep somewhere. Behind he bar? Nothing. Back office? Nothing.

You enter the supply room. Oh, there he is, sleeping on the floor.

Wait, he is not breathing, that look on his face, it's frozen in terror. You take a closer look and find that he is dead. You cannot see any physcial evidence of foul play but he is definitely dead.

You search him and notice that his body feel warm, almost as if microwaved.

In the search you find only a few clues. There is a hand written note that fell out of his pocket (a shopping list, strange hand writing style though) and an ID. It looks like he worked at the DMV and led a normal life. The last thing you find is a pamphlet, some religious pamphlet condemning witches and anything magical.

Danny was an innocent.

[Danny]

Wait, I'm alive! *falls dead again*

Good luck innocents

[Chief Rum]

Since I am dead now, can I be reincarnated as Alyssa Milano's favorite sexy bra? Thanks!

Glad to see the village made the right call. I figured I was dead tonight no matter what. Too bad BK ended up being a brutal, and taking me down at the lynch.

Good luck to the village the rest of the way.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, Danny is not at all who I thought the wolves would kill. While he was not at the top of the distrust list, he was someone that I thought required some scrutiny. I guess not anymore ...

Lathum, Render, and Heinz are the three that voted for Chief Rum yesterday (Heinz with a late switch over to BK after helping build the case for Rum most of the day). Also, none of those three voted for Barkeep on Day 1 when he had an early vote on him. So no real point of separation here either.

I'm hoping one of those three was scanned last night, wolf or no wolf. I also know whose lead I will likely follow in the thread based on my presumption of seer. So for right now I'll sit back and wait for other folks to check in for the day before moving into voting mode.

[Chubby]

I'm headed to work now (until 4pm EST). There's one person I'll be watching closely and most likely be putting my vote on when I get home pending any revelations thru the day.

[hoopsguy]

Twiddles thumbs while waiting for people to show up and post.

[PackerFanatic]

Very nice to see we got the Source, and nice to know that CR was telling the truth. I think we have a lot to go sift through for a decent vote tonight.

[jeheinz72]

I'm here, sucks about the brutal but at least we got a wolf.

I'd echo the strange kill on Danny, I figured he'd get some heat today.

I figure I'll get some, and that's ok, I hope I was scanned frankly. Big vote today, I have to look at voting history big time for today. I'd think I'd get a small bit of favor for putting the nail in BK's coffin, but it appears to not be the case.

[hoopsguy]

Heinz, since you are around and someone who is usually kind of chatty ... what do you think about Lathum and RendeR at this point?

[jeheinz72]

Day 1

Barkeep votes Hannibal (#79)
The Jackal votes Hannibal (#83)
Hannibal votes Barkeep (#86)
Danny votes Lathum (#96)
Packer Fanatic votes Chief Rum (#97)
Lathum votes Hannibal (#101) - went from 2-1-1-1 to 3-1-1-1
jeheinz votes Chief Rum (#109)
Render votes Chief Rum (#111) - went from 3-2-1-1 to 3-3-1-1
Hannibal unvotes BK abd votes Lathum (#118)
Chubby votes jeheinz (133)
Chubby unvotes jeheinz and votes Chief Rum (138)
Danny unvotes Lathum and votes Hannibal (140)
Hannibal unvotes Lathum and votes CR (146)
Hoopsguy votes Hannibal (152)
Chief Rum votes Hannibal Lecter (166)

Day 2


Chief Rum votes Barkeep (#210)
Danny votes Barkeep (#213)
Barkeep votes Chief Rum (#214)
Packer Fanatic votes Barkeep (#219)
Chubby votes Barkeep (#225)
jeheinz votes Chief Rum (#240)
Hoopsguy votes Chief Rum (#244)
Lathum votes Chief Rum (#245) - From 4-3 to 4-4
Render votes Chief Rum (#246) - From 4-4 to 5-4
jackal votes Barkeep (#255)
Danny unvotes Barkeep and votes Chief Rum (#261)
Hoopsguy unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#264)
Danny unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#269)
jeheinz unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#272)

Bolding mine.

I'd say I'm very confident that one of the two is a wolf. Not only does pure odds suggest it as I know I'm good and I'm pretty positive you're good but those votes are pretty meaningful votes.

Looking at Lathum's we had a group of 4 people with a vote on them, a confirmed wolf, 2 confirmed villagers and himself. I think it's a reasonable vote given the timing and the purported reason for it (though that reasoning of course works if he's a Villager or Wolf).

His 2nd vote is probably more interesting. The vote was 4-2 for a long while and then Snap, Crackle, Pop it's now 5-4. Granted your vote in there was changed and explained. He was the first in the sequence and I think if I'm a villager in that spot, I make the same decision. Putting it at 4-4 would just naturally lend itself to getting more out of the days discussion than had he made it 5-3. Of course if he's a wolf it makes sense since he's helping his pal out and making it a game again.


Looking at RendeR's votes. Day One he ties it up, and admits to just wanting a tie and to see what shakes. Makes some sense as a villager of course, to see where votes go after. Makes perfect sense as a wolf since they wouldn't really care as it's villager-villager and he avoids giving a villager a dreaded 2-vote lead.

Day Two he breaks the tie voting for the villager in the showdown.


I'd say looking at votes and actions I believe one of the two to be a wolf and it's more likely to be RendeR.

[jeheinz72]

FTR, in that 2nd to last paragraph I could've sworn it I had typed

Day Two he breaks the tie voting for the villager in the showdown. Enough Said.

[hoopsguy]

Heinz, you are seeing pretty much what I saw - that these guys ended up voting in tandem, close together each day. Honestly, I think we have one wolf here and one villager but I'm not sure which is which.

I'll go ahead and vote for RendeR for now, because I think there is slightly less chance of him having been scanned at this point. Lathum, by virtue of being "the world's greatest wolf" seems a little more likely of the two to have been scanned by now.

VOTE RENDER

[jeheinz72]

Well that's good, here I thought I was one of your top untrusted. I've basically already laid my case, I might as well do this now

Vote RendeR

[PackerFanatic]

That is some pretty good analysis, and pretty much what I was seeing too. I am still intrigued by Jackal's voting, but not enough to pursue anything against him (I could see a reason why a wolf would vote for a fellow wolf - Barkeep - if he knew he was brutal and would be likely to die anyway) I am going to wait a little to see if Render has any defense, but my vote will likely go there.

[hoopsguy]

Well that's good, here I thought I was one of your top untrusted.

You are, but that shrinks up quite a bit if RendeR = wolf. I'm more than willing to pursue this line of thought for today and re-assess tomorrow based on the results.

[jeheinz72]

That is some pretty good analysis, and pretty much what I was seeing too. I am still intrigued by Jackal's voting, but not enough to pursue anything against him (I could see a reason why a wolf would vote for a fellow wolf - Barkeep - if he knew he was brutal and would be likely to die anyway) I am going to wait a little to see if Render has any defense, but my vote will likely go there.

Jackal is definitely down my list a bit, I still don't get his hop to make it 2-0 on Hannibal so early.

But I like his vote from yesterday. He put the wolf back to a tie. Brutal or not, that's a solid vote.

[jeheinz72]

You are, but that shrinks up quite a bit if RendeR = wolf. I'm more than willing to pursue this line of thought for today and re-assess tomorrow based on the results.

Fair enough. Put up or shut up sounds like a reasonable enough deal at this juncture. :D

[The Jackal]

Interesting, I'll reserve judgement for a bit like I did yesterday, worked out well that time.

[The Jackal]

Jackal is definitely down my list a bit, I still don't get his hop to make it 2-0 on Hannibal so early.

I'll take some heat later on if I must, but it was merely an early vote. Hopefully I nail a wolf with my vote today so you'll all continue to near-trust me. :)

[jeheinz72]

I'll take some heat later on if I must, but it was merely an early vote. Hopefully I nail a wolf with my vote today so you'll all continue to near-trust me. :)

Yeah, like I said, you're down the list for sure. Just seemed strange to go 1-2 so early without really anything to go on.

[The Jackal]

Yeah, like I said, you're down the list for sure. Just seemed strange to go 1-2 so early without really anything to go on.

Yeah, I dislike voting day one. It was just to stir the pot, unfortunately it was a vote allied with the brutal wolf's.

[Lathum]

Just waking up.

I figured I would get some heat for voting a villager 2 days in a row.

Day one I felt I needed to put some distance between myself and HL. Anyone who says there was enough time left for things to change when I made it 3-1 can kiss my rear. I was the 6th person of 11 to vote, putting us past the halfway point. People don't change their day 1 votes often, so I needed to take myself out of the running, also Render hadn't voted yet, and he has a day 1 hard on for me.

Day 2 I think I was pretty clear I wanted a tie. or at least the possibility. I went to class after my vote, came home and played WoW with Saldana. By the time I could have changed my vote to BK it wouldn't have mattered anyway and would have looked worse. FWIW I did mention earlier in the day I think BK is the way to go.

[jeheinz72]

Just waking up.

I figured I would get some heat for voting a villager 2 days in a row.

Day one I felt I needed to put some distance between myself and HL. Anyone who says there was enough time left for things to change when I made it 3-1 can kiss my rear. I was the 6th person of 11 to vote, putting us past the halfway point. People don't change their day 1 votes often, so I needed to take myself out of the running, also Render hadn't voted yet, and he has a day 1 hard on for me.

Day 2 I think I was pretty clear I wanted a tie. or at least the possibility. I went to class after my vote, came home and played WOW with Saldana. By the time I could have changed my vote to BK it wouldn't have mattered anyway and would have looked worse. FWIW I did mention earlier in the day I think BK is the way to go.

Got a post #?

[Lathum]

I think we need to take a close look at Heinze, especialy based on his actions from today.

You look at the way voting shook down. Day 1 he votes CR, making it look like he doesn't want a runaway.

Day 2 votes CR, making it 4-2, keeping it from turning into a total runaway. If he votes BK there it is 5-1 and people prety much give BK up for dead. Instead he makes it a 2 vote swing, at least giving people who doubt CR's story a hope BK could live.


Now to today. It's pretty obvious me, Render and Heinze are going to be looked at. I know I am good so lets say they are both bad, Heinze throws Render under the bus to make himself look good, Render buys it today then I buy it tomorrow becuase Heinze has added trust.

It's their only play, they can't both vote me, because when I come back innocent, they both go down 1-2.

[Lathum]

Got a post #?

this should say with, not for. Meaning why not vote BK.

here ya go!

[jeheinz72]

I think we need to take a close look at Heinze, especialy based on his actions from today.

You look at the way voting shook down. Day 1 he votes CR, making it look like he doesn't want a runaway.

Day 2 votes CR, making it 4-2, keeping it from turning into a total runaway. If he votes BK there it is 5-1 and people prety much give BK up for dead. Instead he makes it a 2 vote swing, at least giving people who doubt CR's story a hope BK could live.


Now to today. It's pretty obvious me, Render and Heinze are going to be looked at. I know I am good so lets say they are both bad, Heinze throws Render under the bus to make himself look good, Render buys it today then I buy it tomorrow becuase Heinze has added trust.

It's their only play, they can't both vote me, because when I come back innocent, they both go down 1-2.

Understandable. I don't pretend to think I don't deserve a look today. No doubt.

Hoops asked me a pointed question though about you two, and I answered with my honest opinion. I don't know any other way to play a vanilla other than honest. It's like Rule #1A of being a vanilla. Not sure how you'd rather I'd of answered really...

And for the record, I don't know if I think that BOTH you and RendeR could be wolves. I think if we're looking at a starting group of wolves of you, BK and RendeR, that the 3 of you are much much smarter than to give up so much trust-capital in the first two days. If RendeR bites it and is a wolf, I'd almost say I won't be looking to vote you tomorrow

[jeheinz72]

here ya go!

Thanks (I was lazy)

[jeheinz72]

As far as my votes, I'll give my reasoning, only fair.

Day One.
I wasn't a big fan (as I've stated) of the 1-2 on Hannibal. Not enough to (at the time) think of going down the road of voting BK/Jackal for it, but I basically decided that I'd pass on following them with a vote on HL or voting BK for doing it (Jackal wasn't an option as I didn't want a whole new candidate). That left my options as you or Chief as people who I'd consider. I chose Chief more or less on gut at the time. I was pretty well in agreeance with your reasoning for your vote (I had asked you directly)

Day Two
It was 4-1. I still had an incorrect hunch on CR from Day One. I probably got a bit caught up in sticking to my Day One vote and took the facts of the reveal and tried to apply them to it. Frankly, the main reason I flipped was that hoops did. Not because of the vote count that made it, but because going into Day Two I was getting a good vibe off of hoops being a villager. I'd think putting the icing on the cake and removing hopes of any tie shenanigans would at least get me a slight tick towards favorable.

[Lathum]

Vote JeHeinze


2 quick votes for Render and I would rather this didn't turn into a runaway.

[EagleFan]

As of post 325:

RendeR 2 - hoopsguy (309), jeheinz72 (309)
jeheinz72 1 - Lathum (325)

[EagleFan]

Yet another night trapped inside this nightmare. You do not know what is real anymore and pray that you will open your eyes at some point and this will have all been a dream. Demons, witches, guardian angels... They can't really exist, can they?

Until two days ago you would have laughed at the thought of these things existing. Until two days ago you were blissfully ignorant of true terror. Until two days ago you could close your eyes without seeing horrible sights burned into you mind. Until two days ago you had a band to provide entertainment.

Who can you trust? You could trust Hannibal, Chief and Danny but they are all dead. The bouncer? He killed an evil one. He must be worthy of your trust? Right? But how did he kill such a monster?

Where is the bouncer anyway? He is not in the main room with everyone. You start to look for him...

[The Jackal]

Nice touches with the storyline, EF.

So it looks like we might have a 3-way battle with Lathum, RendeR, and Heinz on our hands.

[hoopsguy]

Well, not much of a three way battle just yet ... only three votes in on two candidates. But the three you mention are the guys that I have either voted for or would consider moving to later today.

[jeheinz72]

FYI, I'm around for another 2-3 hours. I'd hope anyone who is considering voting for me would ask any questions now

[hoopsguy]

Heinz, I'm probably not going to vote for you today unless there is something late-breaking. So far I do not believe we have had everyone check in yet, so I can't make a promise not to vote for you. But I think I have made my thought process for today pretty clear.

So you've got that going for you ... which is nice.

[jeheinz72]

Hey I'll take it!

[hoopsguy]

Pretty quiet day.

[PackerFanatic]

Very quiet day, which is depressing...

I think Heinz is on the straight on narrow and I liked his and Hoops analysis of the Render/Lathum vote situation. So since I don't want to miss the vote tonight...

VOTE RENDER

This is a vote I am more than willing to move if the need arises.

[Chubby]

You are, but that shrinks up quite a bit if RendeR = wolf. I'm more than willing to pursue this line of thought for today and re-assess tomorrow based on the results.

heinz was who I was looking at purely based on his voting record which has already been talked about. I'm not against the above train of thought tho

today vote RendeR, if good tomorrow vote heinz. if bad trust heinz a lot more and look elsewhere.


I'm trying to play K.I.S.S. this game (keep it simple stupid) as I think I tend to overthink things in WW. It's worked so far (with BK, thought he was no brainer after CR revealed then had some doubt but also wanted to see if anyone would jump and my questions and ultimately stuck with BK because I thought CRs version was more plausible)

I'm leaning RendeR tonight but want to see what he says before voting.

[EagleFan]

As of post 335:

RendeR 3 - hoopsguy (309), jeheinz72 (309), PackerFanatic (334)
jeheinz72 1 - Lathum (325)

[jeheinz72]

heinz was who I was looking at purely based on his voting record which has already been talked about. I'm not against the above train of thought tho

today vote RendeR, if good tomorrow vote heinz. if bad trust heinz a lot more and look elsewhere.


I'm trying to play K.I.S.S. this game (keep it simple stupid) as I think I tend to overthink things in WW. It's worked so far (with BK, thought he was no brainer after CR revealed then had some doubt but also wanted to see if anyone would jump and my questions and ultimately stuck with BK because I thought CRs version was more plausible)

I'm leaning RendeR tonight but want to see what he says before voting.

I can't say I love being linked to my one analysis today, but I guess I've *earned* that for my votes Days One and Two.

Not for nothing, if RendeR does indeed come up good, I'll have to wonder if this is a set-up post for end-game

[EagleFan]

Screams fill the air. Not again!!! You turn to find the hostess in tears. What has happened? You rush to her side. There is nothing there.

She hesitates and points. Nothing, you see nothing. "Can't you see it?" she screams. "It's right there!"

You look closer, the room grows silent, very silent, too silent. Still nothing. "Near the wall!!! It's right there!!!"

You move closer to the wall. Movement!!! You jump. You look again shaken but you can't hold back a smirk as you crush the spider crawling on the wall.

"You've got to be kidding me." You now feel a bit angry at the drama over a little spider and spin around towards in hasgte. You find yourself face to face with a blank stare swinging in front of you, a blank stare of the bouncer suspended from the ceiling by a cord.

You gasp, overwhelmed, and drop to the ground. You look back up as the rest of the crowd rushes to see if you are okay. As you look up, nothing. No bouncer hanging, just pieces of a spider web which you fell through.

The hostess gives you a puzzled look. "I hate spiders."

[RendeR]

There is nothing worng with Heinz analysis, but it doesn't actually show evidence of wolf-dom. it just shows that I picked a person to vote for day 1, that person was on the line again day 2 and I never changed it.

Flip flopping votes is far worse, IMO than sticking with what you voted and seeing how things fall.

I voted CR on day 1 because he played a great game recently and generally gets a LOT of leeway early in teh voting due to his schedule. I felt it was time to put some pressure there and seeing as my vote tied things up it made for some interesting information as people changed votes and voted after me.

Day 2 we had the reveal, it was CR or BK, I had voted CR day 1 so I went with it. Nothing more, nothing less.

I am not a wolf, Not that my saying so makes any real difference. Lynch me and we're setup for endgame overnight or at the latest tomorrow. Our numbers are getting tight, we can't afford to lose more innocents.


I KNOW I'm good, so I'll take the other side of Heinz guesswork and:

VOTE LATHUM

[RendeR]

I can't say I love being linked to my one analysis today, but I guess I've *earned* that for my votes Days One and Two.

Not for nothing, if RendeR does indeed come up good, I'll have to wonder if this is a set-up post for end-game


As I know you're wrong about me, I would like to know why you would choose me over lathum at this point. What makes me a better candidate than Lathum right now?

[jeheinz72]

As I know you're wrong about me, I would like to know why you would choose me over lathum at this point. What makes me a better candidate than Lathum right now?

Basically, the short version:

I think your votes are a tick worse than his, as laid out above.

[Chubby]

RendeR - how are lathum's votes worse than jeheinz's?
jeheinz - how are RendeR's votes worse than lathum's?

I'm still leaning towards what I said above but will be voting soon depending on responses

[jeheinz72]

Heinz, since you are around and someone who is usually kind of chatty ... what do you think about Lathum and RendeR at this point?

Bolding mine.

I'd say I'm very confident that one of the two is a wolf. Not only does pure odds suggest it as I know I'm good and I'm pretty positive you're good but those votes are pretty meaningful votes.

Looking at Lathum's we had a group of 4 people with a vote on them, a confirmed wolf, 2 confirmed villagers and himself. I think it's a reasonable vote given the timing and the purported reason for it (though that reasoning of course works if he's a Villager or Wolf).

His 2nd vote is probably more interesting. The vote was 4-2 for a long while and then Snap, Crackle, Pop it's now 5-4. Granted your vote in there was changed and explained. He was the first in the sequence and I think if I'm a villager in that spot, I make the same decision. Putting it at 4-4 would just naturally lend itself to getting more out of the days discussion than had he made it 5-3. Of course if he's a wolf it makes sense since he's helping his pal out and making it a game again.


Looking at RendeR's votes. Day One he ties it up, and admits to just wanting a tie and to see what shakes. Makes some sense as a villager of course, to see where votes go after. Makes perfect sense as a wolf since they wouldn't really care as it's villager-villager and he avoids giving a villager a dreaded 2-vote lead.

Day Two he breaks the tie voting for the villager in the showdown.


I'd say looking at votes and actions I believe one of the two to be a wolf and it's more likely to be RendeR.

RendeR - how are lathum's votes worse than jeheinz's?
jeheinz - how are RendeR's votes worse than lathum's?

I'm still leaning towards what I said above but will be voting soon depending on responses

Chubby, here is my analysis on RendeR vs Lathum from earlier, when hoops directly asked me to compare the two.

[jeheinz72]

FYI, last call for me, I'm outta here in 10

[The Jackal]

VOTE LATHUM

[Lathum]

Unvote Heinze
Vote Render


Is Jackal trying to protect render?

I think his day one vote plus this bear some scrutiny

[Lathum]

Jackal- care to explain the hit and run on me withoug giving any reason or analysis?

[Chubby]

today vote RendeR

if good tomorrow vote heinz.
if bad trust heinz a lot more and look elsewhere (lathum)

that's my thought process right now as I think there's a wolf between render/heinz. not counting lathum out but he's not as on high on my baddie list as the other two right now.

[RendeR]

If heinz believes there is a wolf between myself and lathum, then Why would I vote heinz? he's not making any glaring mistakes, he's simply misinterpreting the data he has available.

Should I suddenly vote Heinz because he did a decent job of analysis? Or should I vote Lathum because he has just as much against him at this point as I do and the original statement was lathum or me?

Now lathum also threw a bone out there about jackal "IS he trying to protect render?" how is Jackal putting a second vote on lathum (and not tying the vote at all) protecting me? yes it brings us closer, but it doesn't actually help me in any way. I find this rather suspicious as it is a very simple way for him to cast two people under suspicion (or more so) and make himself appear better.

[hoopsguy]

I think I may have the wrong horse in this race. This vote change was not calculated in advance, like my move yesterday. But if I'm picking up my signals from players correctly then I think Lathum is the likely wolf out of these two. I'm not going to clarify much more (yet) because I do not want to jeopardize people that I'm rapidly moving into my somewhat secret trust list.

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE LATHUM

[hoopsguy]

Also, I'm not anticipating being on a whole heck of a lot between now and the deadline. So this vote is likely staying put.

[The Jackal]

Sorry I had to go upstairs and help prepare dinner. Having to choose between the three of you was tough for me. I wasn't prepared to put a nail in the coffin for RendeR, so I figured I'd provoke some movement.

[The Jackal]

Is anyone going on more than a feeling or self-defense? I know people have talked about why each person's vote might be worse than the other, but nothing really stands out horribly to me.

[Chubby]

I think I may have the wrong horse in this race. This vote change was not calculated in advance, like my move yesterday. But if I'm picking up my signals from players correctly then I think Lathum is the likely wolf out of these two. I'm not going to clarify much more (yet) because I do not want to jeopardize people that I'm rapidly moving into my somewhat secret trust list.

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE LATHUM

You are pretty high on my trusted list even tho I don't have anything concrete to go on for anyone.

That's fine if you don't want to explain your move but I don't see the logic. I'm not saying you're right or wrong because I really don't know any hard facts and suck at reading people.

I am comfortable with my vote and how it will affect my vote tomorrow providing I don't get night killed. I will be very interested to see why you switched especially considering (as you posted later than this) there probably won't be a lot of activity tonight (maybe that's wrong tho)

[The Jackal]

I'm asking the villagers that might be around, because if we do screw up this vote and lose another villager in the night phase, I think we're probably down to 5 with 2 wolves left, and that's not desirable.

[Chubby]

Is anyone going on more than a feeling or self-defense? I know people have talked about why each person's vote might be worse than the other, but nothing really stands out horribly to me.


I'm not, like you said there's not a lot go on unless your roled and have inside info.

[The Jackal]

Right, and they must have good reason for not saying who they are, which means they likely haven't discovered anything. I imagine if the seer is still around tomorrow they'll come out, they'll be forced to really.. but hopefully they aren't killed before then.

[Lathum]

Now lathum also threw a bone out there about jackal "IS he trying to protect render?" how is Jackal putting a second vote on lathum (and not tying the vote at all) protecting me? yes it brings us closer, but it doesn't actually help me in any way. I find this rather suspicious as it is a very simple way for him to cast two people under suspicion (or more so) and make himself appear better.

He cast a total hit and run vote with no reason, and by not voting you he helps you.

You dont think he should get a closer look based on some of his actions?

[The Jackal]

I just answered about why it was hit and run, Lathum, and why I didn't vote for RendeR. My vote isn't set but I don't have a reason to move it atm.

[PackerFanatic]

So by quick count, the vote is 5 - 3, Render over Lathum.

[PackerFanatic]

And evidently I can't count because we only have 7...

[PackerFanatic]

RendeR 4 - jeheinz72 (309), PackerFanatic (334), Lathum (346), Chubby (348)
Lathum 3 - Render (339), Jackal (345), hoopsguy (350)

This looks better - missed an unvote by Hoops.

[EagleFan]

As of post 362:

RendeR 4 - jeheinz72 (309), PackerFanatic (334), RendeR (346), Chubby (346)
Lathum 3 - RendeR (339), The Jackal (345), hoopsguy (350)

[hoopsguy]

Back, and interested to see how this one goes down. Kind of surprised not to see any other active players around at the moment.

[EagleFan]

3 minutes until deadline

[Chubby]

Back, and interested to see how this one goes down. Kind of surprised not to see any other active players around at the moment.
I've been off and on while the gf plays pokeman before her stupid tv show at 9 but there's not much to talk about IMO. Still waiting to hear while you switched tho...

[hoopsguy]

Pretty sure it is Lathum voting for RendeR, not RendeR voting for himself.

[hoopsguy]

I've been off and on while the gf plays pokeman before her stupid tv show at 9 but there's not much to talk about IMO. Still waiting to hear while you switched tho...

If RendeR ends up being a wolf, I'll spill it now. If not, I'll probably sit tight on the theory until right before the night deadline passes.

[EagleFan]

Sorry, that was supposed to say Lathum.

[EagleFan]

deadline

[Chubby]

If RendeR ends up being a wolf, I'll spill it now. If not, I'll probably sit tight on the theory until right before the night deadline passes.


Which is fine. I just didn't see much point to moving when you don't think many people will be on/talking. if it's a move to see other's move/react I don't see much benefit, if it's to try and save RendeR then there's not much benefit if people aren't on. idk, maybe you see something i don't

[hoopsguy]

Normally I'm pretty damn chatty, but these thoughts are predicated on the actions of people that I think are villagers. Potentially villagers with roles. So I do not want to inadvertantly compromise them by connecting the dots, on the off chance that one of my theories actually is correct.

I was not so convinced that I was right that I felt compelled to push hard on it today to get a (sure) wolf. But I moved from being maybe 52/48 RendeR/Lathum this morning to about 40/60 when I moved the vote.

Anyway, I'll either reveal my busted theory in the next couple of minutes or else sit on my 'still in play' theory for another 110 minutes depending on results.

[Chubby]

Normally I'm pretty damn chatty, but these thoughts are predicated on the actions of people that I think are villagers. Potentially villagers with roles. So I do not want to inadvertantly compromise them by connecting the dots, on the off chance that one of my theories actually is correct.

I was not so convinced that I was right that I felt compelled to push hard on it today to get a (sure) wolf. But I moved from being maybe 52/48 RendeR/Lathum this morning to about 40/60 when I moved the vote.

Anyway, I'll either reveal my busted theory in the next couple of minutes or else sit on my 'still in play' theory for another 110 minutes depending on results.Like I said, that's fine. I think part of the problem this game is those of us not in the know don't have anything to go off of, I'm reaching by looking at voting records (as I've said, not a huge fan of day 1 votes being meaningful) and trying to link people...

[EagleFan]

Accusations fly. There is an evil one still among us. One of you stands up and declares that he has narrowed it down. It must be either Lathum or RendeR. Mob mentality takes over, but it becomes quickly split between the two.

In a tightly contested vote it is decided upon that RendeR is the one who is responsible for what has happened the past couple days. If he dies we will be free!!!

The crowd forms and drags RendeR to the middle of the room. A hand is raised against him. As the first swing is taken at him you notice that it's not a him, it's a her. Either way this cross dresser must die. The crowd's fury reigns supreme against her until her body lies motionless and lifeless.

Who is this woman? How is she responsible for what has happened?

You begin to seach her for a clus, any clue. You find little to go on, just a license which reads Paige Matthews.


RendeR was Paige, a potential Charmed One in the waiting. Your terror continues.

[Chubby]

well that f'n sucks :(

[hoopsguy]

Bummer - will spill my thoughts right before deadline.

I suggested earlier that the identical voting patterns of Lathum/RendeR suggested one wolf and one villager. I still think this is the case, although it is obviously possible that both are villagers.

The wolves could have fun taunting me by killing Lathum tonight, I suppose :) But somehow I do not think that is going to happen ...

[RendeR]

I TOLD you you were wrong people =)

[PackerFanatic]

Fuuuuck...

[RendeR]

I didn't even get pissed off, THAT alone shoulda been a clue ;)

[Lathum]

oops

[hoopsguy]

Also, upon further review Lathum's idea of a Day 2 tie would have been very bad for the village.

Tie = no lynch
Night = defenseless Chief Rum
Next day = Barkeep unleashes brutal on another villager as he goes down

Obviously this is results-oriented thinking if he turns out to be a villager, but I'm thinking his intentions as a wolf were to have the above scenario unfold.

[Lathum]

I dont like the way hoops is operating here.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, if you are a villager then I'm keeping you alive overnight :)

Anyway, short of a seer declaring that you scanned as a villager I'm going to be voting for you tomorrow.

[The Jackal]

Not good.

[hoopsguy]

Mccollins, are you going to be able to play again one of these days?

[hoopsguy]

today vote RendeR

if good tomorrow vote heinz.
if bad trust heinz a lot more and look elsewhere (lathum)

that's my thought process right now as I think there's a wolf between render/heinz. not counting lathum out but he's not as on high on my baddie list as the other two right now.

Here is the post that tipped me to changing my vote. I'll lay out my scenario up to this point.


1.) PackerFanatic changed his vote from D1 to D2, moving from Rum to Barkeep and never deviating from this. He also posted that he trusted Rum's version of events. I believe him to be the seer.
2.) PackerFanatic appeared to trust Heinz today, saying that he thinks he is on the up and up. So I believe he scanned him last night. I did not pick up on this until re-reading posts later this afternoon.
3.) Jackal put the tying vote on Barkeep when he appeared to be in position to avoid a lynch on D2. So I trust him a fair amount. This is only enhanced by Lathum suggesting that Jackal is a bad guy based on his vote earlier today.
4.) I obviously trust myself - so these are the four people that I think are villagers at this point in the game.


I believed earlier that either (but probably not both) Lathum or RendeR were wolves, based on their identical votes that upon review were decidedly anti-village. I also believe that there are three wolves in the game.

In the quoted post above Chubby seems to set the stage for going after Heinz tomorrow when RendeR turns out to be a villager.


Anyway, this is how I think the game sits at this point in time. I may be drawing some bad conclusions ... guess we will find out tomorrow. But I think we have to go after Lathum with the lynch tomorrow unless the seer can reveal another player as a wolf. We can then determine if Chubby is the best option on the following day; right now I would lean in that direction but I'm less convinced about him than I am about Lathum.

OK, done typing this up at 9:46 PM so have to kill some time waiting to post this (twiddles thumbs).

[EagleFan]

deadline

[Lathum]

you are WAY off about me.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, we'll have night kill in a minute. Care to start this conversation now prior to the night kill, on the off chance one of us is not around to finish it?

[Lathum]

Lathum, we'll have night kill in a minute. Care to start this conversation now prior to the night kill, on the off chance one of us is not around to finish it?

If there is a night kill I am in the clear...

[hoopsguy]

Why would there not be a night kill, given that there is not a bodyguard to block it?

[RendeR]

hurry up damnit EF =)

[Lathum]

Why would there not be a night kill, given that there is not a bodyguard to block it?

lets wait and see what happens

[EagleFan]

Everyone has a restless night. There seemed to be a lo of footsteps heard throughout the night. A gasp was heard, later footsteps followed by a thump, then the sound of running.

You wake, afraid of what you may find. Is everyone okay? Is everyone alive?

You count, no one is missing.... It's PackerFanatic, where is he. You begin to search. One of you soon yells "Over here!" You run to see what has been found.

Just outside of the back office you find PackerFanatic laying lifeless. His body begins to blur, it morphs into the shape of three females. There are now three bodies where one once laid. The Charmed Ones are dead!!! How can you survive now?

PackerFanatic was The Charmed One(s).

[hoopsguy]

Crap - was hoping that either Jackal or I would be the kill.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE LATHUM

[Lathum]

VOTE LATHUM

why the hell would you make such a quick vote?

[Lathum]

something isn't right with the way hoops is playing, it is such a set up right now him coming out and voting like this

[RendeR]

DOOOOMED YOURS ALLLS DOOOOOOOMED

[hoopsguy]

VOTE BARKEEP49

CR's reasons are to be pretty cut and dry to me.

It would be interesting to hear if the seer actually did this, since this would greatly impact today's vote.

Why does everyone keep saying that CR revealed before deadline? He threatened to reveal right before deadline, but then didn't actually do until almost 3 hours later (post #192), after all was said and done. Sure, I still don't know why he felt it important to reveal so early in the game, but that is his play and I believe him.

Very quiet day, which is depressing...

I think Heinz is on the straight on narrow and I liked his and Hoops analysis of the Render/Lathum vote situation. So since I don't want to miss the vote tonight...

VOTE RENDER

This is a vote I am more than willing to move if the need arises.


Here are the PackerFanatic posts that suggest his scans (italics added by me):
N1: Chief Rum
N2: Heinz

So do not even think of voting for Heinz.

Lathum is going to suggest that he is the convert and has not been converted. However, if we are to believe this then we would have to accept that both wolves voted against Barkeep when he was in a tight run-off with Chief Rum on Day 2 (Chubby and Jackal). Nope, not the case. Other option is two wolves in 11 player game with uber-powerful good guy roles in The Three and Leo. Again, not the case. Three wolves.

Vote Lathum and vote Chubby. I would prefer to vote them in this order, but if other feel strongly about voting Chubby out first then I'll do what I need to do in order to make sure we get a wolf today. The wolves are going to have to vote together (at the end of the day, if not initially) to get their win. We can stop them if we vote together.

[hoopsguy]

something isn't right with the way hoops is playing, it is such a set up right now him coming out and voting like this

Because it is end game and because I've got this one figured out.

Be happy that I'm not going to Nightfall :) I'm at least going to try and play nicely with the other villagers and Heinz will not be around until tomorrow AM.

[Lathum]

well, I guess no reason not to lay my cards on the table.

I'm Cole. As per the rules if there is an attack on me I may be converted. Since there has been action everynight I obviously have not been converted.

[hoopsguy]

So if you are Cole then do you believe there is only one wolf/demon left? If so, who do you think it is?

[Lathum]

So if you are Cole then do you believe there is only one wolf/demon left? If so, who do you think it is?

I think heinze is the best candidate for tomorrow, though the way you are acting isn't helping

[hoopsguy]

This seems like a very tough game for the bad guys with Leo being uber-tough and the extra-powerful seer if they started 9-2 (with brutal) even if there was an option to get a convert with a brutal ability.

If the game started 8-3 with you being Cole then it is already game over. Cole has the brutal when converted, so 2-2 = game over.

Like I said, I'll try to play nicely with the other villagers rather than going Nightfall in an effort to push my version of events through. But there is a big part of me that thinks you are bluffing here as a wolf/demon.

[hoopsguy]

I think heinze is the best candidate for tomorrow, though the way you are acting isn't helping

Look at the post I quoted from Packer - we know he was the seer. Does that sound like he was wavering at all on Heinz?

[hoopsguy]

On the off chance that Cole is out there, and is someone besides Lathum - you have the chance to pick which side wins. If you reveal, then the wolves have the chance to come get you and you can win with them. Or you can help us uproot the wolves and win with the villagers.

Your choice, but I'm hoping you side with the village and do not reveal to counter Lathum.

[Lathum]

Hoops, not sure how much you know about the show but do you really think there would be a charmed game without Cole?

And why would I fake reveal as Cole when we have lost 2 good guys and the list of them to choose from to fake reveal would be much eaiser?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, the problem with your reveal is that it screws the good guys unless you assume that the starting ratio was 9-2.

So, I'll ask again:
1.) Do you believe that the starting ratio is 9-2, or are you just throwing in with the bad guys?
2.) If you believe it started 9-2, then why do you believe Heinz is the remaining wolf when the dead seer appears to have cleared him with his posts?

I'll continue this discussion tomorrow morning; need to get some sleep.


FWIW, I'm not all that well versed on the show but do recognize that Cole was a significant character on the show. Read up on him on Wikipedia while preparing for the start of the game.

[Lathum]

I agree Heinze is probably in the clear.

Lets look at the 5 left.

I know I am good.
Heinze can be elevated based on PF's statements.


That leaves

Hoops, Chubby and Jackal.


Jackal- Day 1 he cast a very suspicous quick vote on Hannibal day 1. Then he makes it 5-5 on day 2 when he votes BK, now a known baddie, so he either was hoping for a tie, that someone would swing to CR, or he knew it would swing to BK and wanted to get in early.

Hoopsguy- Day 1 makes a late vote for hannibal. Day 2 also waits to make a late vote, this time to BK.

Chubby- Votes Heinze day one and day 2 he makes an early vote for BK making it 4-1. At the time it looked like it was gonna be a BK runaway and maybe he wanted to get in early. By the time he could have made a switch to save BK it would have looked suspicous, plus up until the end it was a toss up.


All being said, Chubby looks worst.

VOTE CHUBBY

[The Jackal]

VOTE LATHUM

too fishy to me

[Lathum]

I think Jackal and Chubby are the last 2 wolves if there are 2 left. It may not matter at this point.

[Lathum]

VOTE LATHUM

too fishy to me

whats fishy?

Do you think I was bold enough to fake reveal as the most popular person in the series then get lucky enough to NOT have him actualy in the game?

[Lathum]

It's late on the east coast so I will give Jackal a break, but thats a crazy hit and run.

Hoops, if you are a good guy and want to win this game you need to believe me.

[The Jackal]

I'll take that into consideration, what you said about Cole, my vote isnt set in stone.

[Chubby]

I am heading off to work soon, won't be home til 4:30 pm EST so I'll lay what I think is going on out on the table.

I'm a vanilla villager, nothing more. Kinda sucks but it is what it is. With the roles that have been shown by death and knowledge of the show I'm pretty sure that yes Cole is in the game, most likely it was 9-2 start for us good guys because of Cole being in the game, and that the other baddie is most likely Christy (as she takes down the power of three in the show if I remember correctly).

Because of this I'm not sold on the heinz clear with Christy being cunning. I'm pretty sure of the above scenario, I just don't know who is who outside of myself being good. Hopefully there will be some discussion when I get home so i can try and sort this out

For the sake of promoting discussion I'll Vote The Jackal based on multiple hit and runs but it's by no means set in stone.

[Chubby]

last thoughts before I go...

If you do think we started 9-2 with cole in play as I do, what would the 2nd demon be to make it fair? Charmed Ones + 2 potential BG (Leo and Paige) vs Source + ??? I don't see Source + Dark Lighter being fair, plus the Source could summon a dark lighter so it comes down to Christy vs seer. If the 2nd demon was a seer then they wouldn't be able to scan and kill in the same night which means they haven't scanned once (night kill attempt each night), I really think we started off against Source + Christy. I hope this gets fleshed out more while I'm at work but I don't see how we could have started any different.

[PackerFanatic]

De-frickin'-pressing. I was going along so well too!

Good luck villagers :)

[Lathum]

Chubby brings up a good point about the cunnng, Heinze may not be in the clear at all.

[Lathum]

I need to go back through Heinzes posts and look at them closer, the cunning usualy intentionaly draws attention to themselves in an attempt to get scanned.

[Lathum]

and hoops has been championing the Heinze being cleared bandwagon.

Unvote Chubby
Vote heinze

[jeheinz72]

Quite an interesting evening.

My thoughts are that I 100% trust hoops and Jackal, have all game really. I thought one of them was the Seer initially. My theory was that at N1 hoops laid out his "this is what the Seer should do plan" he was really depicting what he himself was going to do. Jackal had a chance to save BK basically and didn't instead making it a tie. Now a tie isn't a villager beneficial thing, but it would've been better than us losing that showdown altogether.

I'm fairly certain Lathum and Chubby are the two remaining wolves. I think 9-2 with Cole and the wolves being a Cunning and a Brutal is a tough road for the village to hoe. I'm thinking 8-3 with Source, Cunning, Regular Demon is more fair given Leo's strength

Also the two-wolf play of "You bring something up (cunning in this case) and I'll run with it (Lathum's above post)" is a pretty standard move.

Vote Lathum

[jeheinz72]

So Chubby/Lathum - You are surmising that we had

8 villagers
2 wolves (Source and me as the cunning)
1 Cole (lathum)

That would mean we've got left

3 villagers (Chubby, Jackal, hoops)
1 Wolf (Me)
1 Cole (Lathum)

left, right?

Then let's make this easy Chubby, let's lynch Lathum. If he's telling the truth we'll know it and it'll be 2 villagers after the night kill and me going into tomorrow. You can lynch me and the village would win (they actually wouldn't since I'm not a wolf, but we'd pay out on whichever of Jackal/Hoops played a magnificent game)

If he's lying, well, then it's pretty clear that hoops version of events was accurate.

[Lathum]

Also the two-wolf play of "You bring something up (cunning in this case) and I'll run with it (Lathum's above post)" is a pretty standard move.


Kind of what you and hoops are doing?

anyone who thinks Cole isn't in the game is crazy. It would be like having an I love lucy game without Lucy or a Gilligans Island game without Gilligan.

[jeheinz72]

Kind of what you and hoops are doing?

Fair enough point I suppose. Touche' my good man. Untrue, but fair point



anyone who thinks Cole isn't in the game is crazy. It would be like having an I love lucy game without Lucy or a Gilligans Island game without Gilligan.

I don't know about the show like at all, but I think my above plan "works". Yeah, it'd suck for you taking one for the team, but isn't that what being a villager is all about?

And if you are indeed Cole (and Chubby is actually the wolf) then I'll have a big road to overcome for the comeback and owe you 1000 virgins in the afterlife.

[Lathum]

So Chubby/Lathum - You are surmising that we had

8 villagers
2 wolves (Source and me as the cunning)
1 Cole (lathum)

That would mean we've got left

3 villagers (Chubby, Jackal, hoops)
1 Wolf (Me)
1 Cole (Lathum)

left, right?

Then let's make this easy Chubby, let's lynch Lathum. If he's telling the truth we'll know it and it'll be 2 villagers after the night kill and me going into tomorrow. You can lynch me and the village would win (they actually wouldn't since I'm not a wolf, but we'd pay out on whichever of Jackal/Hoops played a magnificent game)

If he's lying, well, then it's pretty clear that hoops version of events was accurate.

this screams desperation.


Lynch me today and the game is over. I am 99% convinced of that. Heinze knows that and is throwing anything he can against the wall to make that happen.


Lets look at the roles.

A charmed one- very powerfull charecture.

Leo- can only be night killed by 1-2 players in the game, and if he was attacked by a different player he was given clues identyfying that player. Thats really powerfull, it just happened to be bad luck the brutal got him.

Paige- a backup charmed one.

Thats 3 really powerfull roles. It is far from inconceivable the would be the source, a dark lighter and a demon. Which means there are 2 bad guys left.

It was also made clear to me I would have choices if I was attacked at night, so it isn't so cut and dry I would be converted.


Heinze and Hoops are the last 2 wolves, lynch me and it's game over.

[jeheinz72]

So you actually think it was 7 villagers, 3 wolves and Cole? So hell, the wolves could've lucked into a 6-4 game heading into Day two? No way man. No bleepin way.

[Lathum]

I don't know about the show like at all, but I think my above plan "works". Yeah, it'd suck for you taking one for the team, but isn't that what being a villager is all about?


your "plan" is predicated on the fact there is only 1 wolf/demon left. If thats not the case then it is game over.

[Lathum]

So you actually think it was 7 villagers, 3 wolves and Cole? So hell, the wolves could've lucked into a 6-4 game heading into Day two? No way man. No bleepin way.

I (cole) start the game as a villager so it is 8-3. Then factor in the roles.


You are completly discounting the power of the roles.

1 wolf can only kill a certain villager ( CR ). If another wolf attempts the kill they are outed.
1 villager has crazy powers and another inherits those powers if the first one dies

[Lathum]

dola- do you really think it started 9-2? the wolves could have been at an 8-1 disadvanvantage after day 1.

No way man. No bleepin way.

[Lathum]

4X dola-

why are the 2 west coasters the only ones talking right now?

[jeheinz72]

dola- do you really think it started 9-2? the wolves could have been at an 8-1 disadvanvantage after day 1.

No way man. No bleepin way.

I think it was either 9-2 and you're Cole who has been converted or 8-3 and no Cole at all.

4X dola-

why are the 2 west coasters the only ones talking right now?

I was thinking that myself.

I (cole) start the game as a villager so it is 8-3. Then factor in the roles.


You are completly discounting the power of the roles.

1 wolf can only kill a certain villager ( CR ). If another wolf attempts the kill they are outed.
1 villager has crazy powers and another inherits those powers if the first one dies

And for wolves to get a brutal and a cunning in a small game (it usually takes some time to sniff out a cunning) is a big advantage. Much less a conversion chance which can blow everything up in a 4-5 day game

[Hannibal Lecter]

cuz everyone else is dead :(

[jeheinz72]

I mean realistically, your vote doesn't matter Lathum. You've cast doubt upon all 4 of the rest of us now at some point in the last 12 hours. Wanna talk desparation, there it is.

Basically it's like 95% I'm voting with hoops/Jackal. I'm hoping it's for you. It's then up to Chubby if he wants to acquiesce (horrid spelling there) or fight it today.

[jeheinz72]

I should add, that if I was a lone wolf left, why would I want to lynch you? Wouldn't I be trying to cast doubt on one of the other 3?

Clearly if I was the only wolf left, I'd be doing my best to somehow keep both you and I alive through today, attack you tonight and hope you decide to take the easy win with me be joining me.

That path, if I were the only wolf, is surely a better bet than just hoping I survive back-to-back lynches, seer clearing me or not.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I've did some thinking on this on the way into work and I'll come clean with the one piece of information that I've held onto up to this point in time.

I KNOW THAT COLE IS IN THE GAME

I also know one player who is alive that is not Cole.

Consider this a large check-mark for Lathum's version of the events. Also, given that the night actions have been accounted for on each night (1 - attacked Leo, 2 and 3 were night kills) I guess I believe that he is in fact who he says he is. I do not know that he is Lathum, but there is a shrinking number of people who could have this role.

The bad part about this is that if there are two wolves, we have lost the game. Because they convert him tonight and we are 2-2 with one wolf being brutal.

So, for this to even be worth playing out we have to, more or less, approach this like there is just one wolf left.

Keep in mind, I'm basically throwing away my chance at a major victory by divulging this information on Cole. If there are two wolves left they would have backed me on Lathum and it would have ended the game today. I would have had a partial victory based on achieving one of my win conditions. But I would rather win with the village (hoping that is still possible) and lose the individual win condition than lose the game and take the partial win.

UNVOTE LATHUM

[jeheinz72]

I'd agree that if there are 2 wolves left and one is an unconverted Cole then we're fucked.

Could Jackal be Cole? He waited to make his vote until late in the day every day but the first. Could that have been a ploy to try and get night-killed? (just theorizing)

[Lathum]

I think it was either 9-2 and you're Cole who has been converted or 8-3 and no Cole at all.


when exactly was I converted then?

[Lathum]

Could Jackal be Cole? He waited to make his vote until late in the day every day but the first. Could that have been a ploy to try and get night-killed? (just theorizing)

Jesus Christ dude, how bad do you want me lynched?

I just happened to fake reveal as Cole, hoops confirms Cole is in the game, and the ONE player yet to check in happens to be the real Cole, gimme a break...

[Lathum]

Hoops, based on what I have been told I will basicly be given the choice if I want to be converted or not.

If I choose to not be converted I believe I will be told the identity of my attacker.

Another thing I was told is if I decide to become a demon, I become a demon the following night and the demon that attacked me is night killed, I basicly steal their powers. Which also lends to the theory we started with 3 wolves.

[Lathum]

Does anyone think Jackal cast that odd day 1 vote in an attempt to get scanned and cleared as the cunning?

[hoopsguy]

I've basically got to discount the two wolves scenario to have any fun playing this out today. So, here are possible scenarios:

Lathum - believe him to be Cole (who has cast horrible votes for village, although yesterday was survival mode)

Heinz - miserable voting record, but appears to have been seer scanned. Less likely to be wolf, but possibility exists of cunning

Chubby - had good vote on BK, although was certainly not first to the party. Otherwise, votes have been bad for village. Brought up idea of cunning wolf, which may be red herring to distract from notion of him as wolf

Jackal - very good vote in BK/Chief showdown on D2, went against the grain again yesterday too (in what now appears to have been villager-friendly move, given RendeR/Lathum revealed info)

Me - you guys get to be the judge, but I will not be voting for me

[EagleFan]

As of post 439:

Lathum 1 - The Jackal (411)
heinz72 1 - Lathum (421)
The Jackal 1 - Chubby (416)

[hoopsguy]

Does anyone think Jackal cast that odd day 1 vote in an attempt to get scanned and cleared as the cunning?

Nah, voting out the bad guy is not a quick path to being scanned. I pretty much discount this motivation.

[hoopsguy]

Let's add a little more variety to the votes - plenty of time for "villagers" to consolidate later.

I'll go with Chubby because he is the easiest choice based on what I know - I know there is a wolf left, but do not know that there is a cunning wolf in the game.

VOTE CHUBBY

[Lathum]

Hoops, how exactly do you know Cole is in the game?

This seems like info a wolf may have been given based on some of the PM's I have received.

[Lathum]

Nah, voting out the bad guy is not a quick path to being scanned. I pretty much discount this motivation.

he voted HL day 1

[Lathum]

dola- If you think there is only 1 wolf left then it is probably a cunning wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Hoops, how exactly do you know Cole is in the game?

This seems like info a wolf may have been given based on some of the PM's I have received.

I got a PM on Day 2 giving me information about my new win condition. I learned that Cole Turner is a lawyer who defended/freed some guy who killed a college friend of mine. I want vengeance on Cole Turner because of this.

[jeheinz72]

Jesus Christ dude, how bad do you want me lynched?

I just happened to fake reveal as Cole, hoops confirms Cole is in the game, and the ONE player yet to check in happens to be the real Cole, gimme a break...

Dude, I said I was just theorizing!

What, we're not allowed to suggest ideas in Werewolf now? Or only you are?

[Lathum]

I got a PM on Day 2 giving me information about my new win condition. I learned that Cole Turner is a lawyer who defended/freed some guy who killed a college friend of mine. I want vengeance on Cole Turner because of this.

so is your solo win condition getting me lynched?

[Lathum]

Dude, I said I was just theorizing!

What, we're not allowed to suggest ideas in Werewolf now? Or only you are?

thats a pretty far fetched theory

[hoopsguy]

dola- If you think there is only 1 wolf left then it is probably a cunning wolf.

I just have a hard time thinking that way - if that is the case then the village was pretty unlucky.

But if that is the case then you could refuse to be turned tonight (right?) and we can win the game tomorrow by voting out Heinz. I'm not counting on this happening (you would take the win, I expect) but I'll throw it out there as long as we are constructing scenarios.

[hoopsguy]

so is your solo win condition getting me lynched?

Well, I did not know it was you until last night after the deadline. But yeah, that is how it works.

[Lathum]

I just have a hard time thinking that way - if that is the case then the village was pretty unlucky.

But if that is the case then you could refuse to be turned tonight (right?) and we can win the game tomorrow by voting out Heinz. I'm not counting on this happening (you would take the win, I expect) but I'll throw it out there as long as we are constructing scenarios.

I don't think I can, since I don't become a demon until the following night I don't think I would get the win.

Plus if I am decline the conversion I am believe I am told who attempted to convert me.

[jeheinz72]

thats a pretty far fetched theory

This coming from the guy who has tried to implicate each of the other 4 players in the last 12 hours...:D

[Lathum]

This coming from the guy who has tried to implicate each of the other 4 players in the last 12 hours...:D

not implicating anyone.

I just know I am good so I am bouncing around theories. At least my theories are plausable...;)

[jeheinz72]

not implicating anyone.

I just know I am good so I am bouncing around theories. At least my theories are plausable...;)

Sure, if you name everyone surely you've gotta be right with something! ;)

[hoopsguy]

I don't think I can, since I don't become a demon until the following night I don't think I would get the win.

Plus if I am decline the conversion I am believe I am told who attempted to convert me.

FWIW, I do not think I believe the details you are sharing about Cole. I struggle to believe that you could decline the conversion and be around the following day.

But that really does not matter - if you are Cole and have not been converted (and I do not see where this would have happened) then you are not the right person to kill today.

[Lathum]

Unvote Heinze
Vote Chubby

I dont feel great about it but I am gonna go back to my original line of thinking. I just dont trust Heinze as far as I can throw him, and I am a pretty strong guy.

[mccollins]

Mccollins, are you going to be able to play again one of these days?

Hopefully. I decided against playing in this one at the last minute because I'm in a game on TSW and I've just started moderating a game on another forum.

But, yeah, I've been reading along and miss you all.

Continue! :popcorn:

The Clap reminds me I'm playing in his game!

[jeheinz72]

Unvote Heinze
Vote Chubby

I dont feel great about it but I am gonna go back to my original line of thinking. I just dont trust Heinze as far as I can throw him, and I am a pretty strong guy.

In your defense, I'm no small man.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Hopefully. I decided against playing in this one at the last minute because I'm in a game on TSW and I've just started moderating a game on another forum.

But, yeah, I've been reading along and miss you all.

Continue! :popcorn:

The Clap reminds me I'm playing in his game!


Thats Dr. Lecter to you!

[The Jackal]

unvote lathum

vote chubby

I was already going to do this before hoops switched, I like what lathum laid out this morning, it makes sense.

[The Jackal]

Oh and no, I'm not Cole. Though I am as attractive as Julian McMahon.

[EagleFan]

As of post 439:

Chubby 3 - hoopsguy (445), Lathum (460), The Jackal (464)
The Jackal 1 - Chubby (416)

[jeheinz72]

I actually voted earlier, but it's moot anyhow. I'm with the group

Unvote Lathum
Vote Chubby

[hoopsguy]

There is a big part of me that is tempted to "Nightfall" this but I do think that Chubby deserves a chance to argue his case.

[EagleFan]

The day has been quiet. Everyone begins to wonder, is this nightmare almost over? Are we all about to be free? Yet there is odd tension in the air. Everyone can feel it, it feels like grief, anger and hatred all rolled into one tightly knit package.

It is easily dismissed as something caused by this unexplainable week which has left everyone both physically and emotionally exhausted. Fingers point around the room more than ever. No-one wants to be the next target, of the evil which lurks inside or the angry mob. You ponder your next move.

A scream echoes through the club. "No one gets out alive!!!"

The lights dim. Evil laughter fills the air. Though you can see little it is apparant that everyone has the same expression as you look around the room, a soulless, emotionless expression.

"Fools, all of you!!!"

Everyone drops to the ground, exhausted, a hollow shell. You struggle back to your feet and then you see it. The body of the bouncer now sways in the air, suspended from a beam in the ceiling by a rope.

You are too drained to even move.

Sparks, a flash of light, puffs of smoke fill the air making it too dense to breath, let alone see. You sink slowly back to the ground, now wishing for it all to be over. Your will to go on is almost entirely gone. You close your eyes...

Soon there is the sound of movement. Everyone slowly staggers back to their feet. Your eyes focus where you saw the bouncer but there is nothing. He is nowhere to be seen.

How can you escape this. There is one way, but that is the cowardly way. You must push on...

[EagleFan]

As of post 469:

Chubby 3 - hoopsguy (445), Lathum (460), The Jackal (464), jeheinz72 (467)
The Jackal 1 - Chubby (416)

[jeheinz72]

What's the plan for over the weekend? I might be able to hop on for a few minutes Sunday, but that'd be it.

[EagleFan]

The weekend will most likely be off, unless those remaining agree to have a cycle sometime over the weekend. I can arrange my schedule for weekend play around the players.

[hoopsguy]

I can certainly play over the weekend if others can ... assuming we are on, there will not be many players left.

I'm honestly trying to envision a scenario where we have a game still going over the weekend.
1.) There is one wolf, we do not get him, he converts Lathum = game over.
2.) There are two wolves, we do not get one, game way over.
3.) There is one wolf, we get him, game over.
4.) There are two wolves, we get one, the remaining one converts Lathum = game over.

Always fun playing games with incomplete information :) End result is usually me spinning my wheels, frequently in the wrong direction.

[Chubby]

So Chubby/Lathum - You are surmising that we had

8 villagers
2 wolves (Source and me as the cunning)
1 Cole (lathum)

That would mean we've got left

3 villagers (Chubby, Jackal, hoops)
1 Wolf (Me)
1 Cole (Lathum)

left, right?

Then let's make this easy Chubby, let's lynch Lathum. If he's telling the truth we'll know it and it'll be 2 villagers after the night kill and me going into tomorrow. You can lynch me and the village would win (they actually wouldn't since I'm not a wolf, but we'd pay out on whichever of Jackal/Hoops played a magnificent game)

If he's lying, well, then it's pretty clear that hoops version of events was accurate.


Catching up (just got home)

I don't know who is the other wolf (most likely cunning) but yes, I agree that lynching Lathum today is the villages best play. I'll post more when I catch up (in case someone already listed the scenarios so I don't repeat)

unvote The Jackal
Vote Lathum

[EagleFan]

I am an idiot!!!

I forgot entirely about previous plans tonight. I will probably be out from around 7 until 1-2 in the morning. I appologize whole heartedly about this.

Can we either run the deadline earlier or later? If 7:00 is okay with everyone I could do that (I can leave a little late). We could have the night phase right after the day phase with conditional night orders based upon the day results.

Would 7:00 be acceptable?

[Chubby]

Here's the scenarios as I see it:

We start with 3 wolves + cole (very unlikely) - The game is basically alreayd over regardless of who is lynched tonight. Villager/Cole goes down, it's 2-2 and game over. Wolf goes down, they convert Lathum and it's 2-2 game over.

We start with 3 wolves, no Cole (very unlikely) - I believed Lathum when he said he's Cole even before hoops swearing he knows Cole is in the game. We lynch a villager/Cole then it's over. We lynch a wolf then we keep playing.

We start with 2 wolves + Cole (very likely) - Obviously if we get the last wolf it's game over we win. If we lynch a villager (3 out of 5 left) then Lathum gets converted and it's 2-2 game over. I think this is where we are, not sure on who is the wolf.

[b]We start with 2 wolves and no Cole (very unlikely) - Even if you ignore logic and hoops vouching for Cole, why does Lathum claim Cole unless he's a wolf? It puts a target on his back.

Lathum coming out - Lathum wants to win the game, I think he thought he'd be safe from the villagers and if he survives the vote, gets converted to win with the wolves.

Based on the above, I think our best play is lynch Lathum today ensuring we're playing another day and go from there. With Cole lynched today, the wolves can't win today/tonight.

[Lathum]

I am fine for an early deadline.

An for those of you saying I will be converted tonight I am being honest that I believe I can make the choice.

[Chubby]

I am fine for an early deadline.

An for those of you saying I will be converted tonight I am being honest that I believe I can make the choice.

So let's say you can choose, you would turn it down and give up an automatic win? I highly doubt that.

[jeheinz72]

I'm fine with an early deadline...since, I'm outta here until Sunday anyhow...

[hoopsguy]

Fine with early deadline as well.

[Lathum]

So let's say you can choose, you would turn it down and give up an automatic win? I highly doubt that.

I mentioned this before, my PM's have led me to believe I would be told the identity of my attacker, so I would get a win either way.

[hoopsguy]

OK, here is what I see right now:
1.) Hopefully EagleFan would not allow this day to drag out if we were mathematically eliminated (2 wolves + revealed Cole)
2.) If there is one wolf, and we miss then the ratio slides to 2-1-1 (villager/wolf/Cole) and we count on Lathum telling the truth about how his ability works to keep the game going. And we count on him to choose "villager"
3.) If there is one wolf and we get him right we win.

That pretty much cover it?

[EagleFan]

A few minutes to go. Going to start preparing the write up. Will slighly alter it if the vote changes between now and the time I finish it.

[EagleFan]

Sorry, typos on this laptop seem to be frequent. :(

[hoopsguy]

I would think about creating a tie today if there was someone around to help make that happen. That could potentially allow the Lathum situation to play out.

Oh well, hopefully we have our guy in Chubby.

[EagleFan]

deadline

[EagleFan]

The mob begins to form. "We need to end this tonight!!! It cannot be allowed to continue!!!" bellows hoopsguy. He points at Lathum and Chubby. Everyone glares in their direction.

Lathum shakes his head. "It's not me. I have a dark and evil secret. My name is Cole Turner and most know me as a lawyer."

"Bast@#d!!!" shouts hoopsguy. "My best fried is dead and his killer is free because of you! You must die!"

jeheinz72 calms hoops down "We must get out of here, we cannot proong this. Let's hear him out, but I am ready to see him die if he is responsible for this."

Lathum continues "I am half demon."

jeheinz72 grabs the knife which killed The Source and charges.

The Jackal stops him before he reaches Lathum. "Wait, we must hear him out. Why would he tell us this if he was responsible for this?"

"Because then he win!!!" decries hoopsguy.

"I did not do this. I fight against evil every day. I have powers, I can feel them. They are strong. Only once did I use them this week, I saved the waitress when she was attacked."

"But she is now dead!!!" another voice speaks up, it's Chubby. "She is dead and you are the only person among us who claims to have these abilities. The choice is easy."

"Chubby seems too willng." says hoops. "If we kill Chubby we will know where Lathum lies and if we have a chance to survive."

"I am voting we kill Chubby"

"I agree"

"I agree"

"I am okay with that."

"Wait, I'm not okay with that." says Chubby. "Look, here are reasons why it is not me. Here is why we must kill somene else. We must kill. We HAVE to KILL. EVERYONE MUST DIE!!!"

Then you notice Chubby looks different. It's not a man but a woman. Her face becomes clear and her attractive features slmost seem to calm everyone at first.

Chubby turns towards Lathum and he begins to glow red in pain as if burnign frothe inside. Then a flick of Lathum's hand snds Cubby flying across the room.

"I loved her!!!" screams Lathum. "You killed her!!! You must die!!!"

Fire begins to leap from Lathums palms. A fireball is hurled towrds Chubby. It's a direct hit. Chubby falls to the ground. "Noooooo!!!"

Lathum walk towards her with rage in his eyes. He extends his hands towards her and she lifts into the air. His hands begin a choking motion and she gasps for air. Soon the gasping stops. He throws her to the ground and one last fireball leaves only ash where she once was.

It's over. You have survived.

You turn towards Lathum still in shock. He kneels on the charred ground. "It's.... over" is all me can mutter.



Game over.... Innocents win.

[EagleFan]

I have to bolt out the door in a minute. I will post any major win conditions and results as well as any more details after I get back tonight. Post any questions what you may have.

I have a lot to say, and some to appologize for. I made a few rookie mistakes but I hope you had an anjoyable game. Any and all feedback would also be greatly appreciated.

[Danny]

Yay! Good job innocents

[Lathum]

WOOHOOO!!!

I thought it was a very good game EF!!

[The Jackal]

Nice.

[hoopsguy]

The one thing Chubby said that was correct was that we could kill Lathum today and come back around for the last wolf (him) tomorrow. Clearly that appealed to me based on my win conditions.

If the wolves only had Source + standard Demon (haven't looked at first page yet) that was potentially a pretty tough road. A lot depended on getting Lathum converted.

I do think this would have been pretty interesting with all the original roles in play.

Man, there were some bad villager voting patterns this game :)

[RendeR]

wooohooo, win win win win win GO GOOD GUYS!!!

[Hannibal Lecter]

I must say I liked the fact that all the wolves had the major condiion of being the only one left... that made for some interesting votes!

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, were you being honest about how the night attack would work? Or at least as far as you knew?

[Lathum]

Lathum, were you being honest about how the night attack would work? Or at least as far as you knew?

yes I was

[The Jackal]

Question to hoops and heinze, who appear to be the other vanilla villagers, did you get EF's vanilla major victory condition also?

[hoopsguy]

Only victory condition I had, outside of "win with village" was "major victory: outlast Cole".

[Danny]

Chubby was actually Christy the cunning wolf.

[EagleFan]

Day two all vanilla villagers got a major victory condition. I will detail them more tomrrow morning. It's been a long day/night and I am a lot more tired than I anticipated. It was to add a little flavor.

In addition the wolves each had amajor wivtory condition of outlasting the other.

The Cole character had the most action. I was bugging the hell out of Lathum this game. He had several ways to be converted and several conditoins depending upon game circumstances.

Originally he could have been tempted by The Source to turn evil. He would have become a full fledged demon at that point with a condition of outlasting Christy for major victory.

He was also being tempted with chances to respond to situations. When he responded using his powers (saving the waitress) he was given his gretest temptation. Turn evil and become the next source.

Finally he could have been turned by an attack but would have been given a choice to die or turn at that point (originally).

When the Charmed One(s) got killed this activated his rage due to his connection to Phoebe. He was given an option then. Remain good, if he did this it would result in any night attack on him leading to the death of the demon. Or turn bad and he would have killed the demon who killed the Charmed One(s) that night and become the new Source.

My plan for a big game was that if Cole turned with The Source alive he would have received a condition of becoming the new Source by killing the current Source.

The Paige character was going to have a win condition similar to hoops in getting rid of Cole (she distrusted him in the show big time) as a major win condition if she became a Charmed one.


I probably didn't convey enough for people to try things on their own. I was hoping people would think outside of teh box based on some of the events that happened. There were crystals which fell to the floor after one NPC was killed and they could have been used by either side (different ability depending on who) if someone asked to pick them up. There was a knife (actually my mistake as it was supposed to be a dagger but I called it a knife first so I had to stay with it) which could also have been picked up and served a purpose. I added the use of that same knife to the write up of the Source being killed to highlight it and get people thinking that maybe it had something special about it to be able to kill The Source.


The clue that CR received contained a mistake on my part, for that I am very sorry. I was going to do a write up about the bartender earlier that day which would contain a few misleading clues. The intention of the CR bartender clue was to hopefully direct him towards that write up and a potential dead end. The DI was supposed to be the true clue (49). I had written up the bartender storyline while at work but I timed out when I submitted it so it never posted. Bad timing pulled me away from my desk and I forgot that I had never posted that write up until after I sent the PM to CR.


I tried to mute Leo's power by having there be a lot of chances to discover him. An attack on him which is survived became one of those ways. Once discovered he would be helpless the following night as he could not block an attack from a dark lighter.


Hopefully I didn't try to do too much with the game. I had a lot of that prepared for the larger game and had to cut a lot back but hope I didn't make it too unbalanced by not cutting out the right things.


What I really wanted to try was a couple of things. One being free thinking (people trying out various objects, maybe they are beneficial, maybe not). Having an ongoing story (the various NPC encounters), having a convert with the ability to have a say in things and having a struggle among the individuals on each side.