WW - Nightmare Before Christmas (Game Over - Wolves Win!!!)

[Coffee Warlord]

Unvote Autumn

Vote Martin

[EagleFan]

As of post 501:

Coffee Warlord 3 - thejuggler3 (470), Autumn (484), MartinD (491)
Danny 2 - Lathum (468), Raiders Army (478)
MartinD 2 - DaddyTorgo (500), Coffee Warlord (501)
Autumn 1 - Danny (476)

[Lathum]

Unvote Danny
Vote MartinD

Don't want things to close. The tie dynamic really messes with the votiing being close.

[Autumn]

Heading off to dinner then dealing with the kids tonight. I should be on before deadline, but it might be later.

[Lathum]

err, didn't realize we were onto a new page and screwed up. Gonna leave it as is for now and see what shakes.

[Raiders Army]

Well, my vote won't make a difference.

UNVOTE DANNY
VOTE MARTIND

[Danny]

Really? You guys are voting MartinD after he and Jackal exchanged early votes on eachother yesterday almost making sure both would be lynch candidates?

I will not be voting MartinD at this point.

[EagleFan]

As of post 507:

MartinD 4 - DaddyTorgo (500), Coffee Warlord (501), Lathum (503), Raiders Army (506)
Coffee Warlord 3 - thejuggler3 (470), Autumn (484), MartinD (491)
Autumn 1 - Danny (476)

[Danny]

Unvote Autumn
Vote CoffeeWarlord

Not sold on him, but I think he is a better vote than MartinD

[Danny]

And Autumn, there were two primary reasons I switched to Jackal. One is that I reread his posts and he pinged me as a wolf. I've generally been good at reading Jackal, so I trusted my gut to some degree on that. The second reason I am still not willing to say at this point, just in case.

[Danny]

Also, people keep claiming that I never provided any reasoning for my Saldana vote, but I backed up that vote with my reasons multiple times. I think he was the best vote day 1 and was a better vote day 2 than either Packer or Darth and I stand by that despite the fact he obviously was good.

[Coffee Warlord]

So that puts all 4 people who are on my shit list voting for me. Heh.

[Coffee Warlord]

Wait, no. I've got RA on my side, god help me.

[Danny]

So that puts all 4 people who are on my shit list voting for me. Heh.

FWIW, I actually think both you and MartinD are villagers.

[EagleFan]

As of post 514:

MartinD 4 - DaddyTorgo (500), Coffee Warlord (501), Lathum (503), Raiders Army (506)
Coffee Warlord 4 - thejuggler3 (470), Autumn (484), MartinD (491), Danny (509)

[Danny]

Not taking into account any potential seer information, I will be back to voting Autumn tomorrow.

[Raiders Army]

Wait, no. I've got RA on my side, god help me.

Sorry, Al Davis is the Prince of Darkness. Danny should know that.

[Coffee Warlord]

Sorry, Al Davis is the Prince of Darkness. Danny should know that.

Al Davis is not Ozzy Osbourne!

[Coffee Warlord]

Dammit, I need dinner.

[Raiders Army]

Hey, I forget. Does Jay Cutler have diabetes? I never hear it mentioned anymore.


(on a side note, every time we see Cutler on TV, my wife mentions the fact that he has diabetes. All those announcers talked about it every game a few years ago)

[thejuggler3]

Off for dinner as well. Will be back in time for deadline to talk stalemate breaking.

[Lathum]

So what happens if there is a tie and there are only 2 candidates?

[Raiders Army]

I hope someone breaks the stalemate. Anyhow, I'm gone for the night. Good luck village.

[Danny]

Random player is lynched. I think I'd rather take a random shot than lynch the player I have the most trust in (except for DT obviously)

[Lathum]

Random player is lynched. I think I'd rather take a random shot than lynch the player I have the most trust in (except for DT obviously)

My understanding of the rule is if there is a tie another player who has votes on them will be randomly lynched

[Danny]

It says those not tied for the lead, so basically a random player EXCEPT for Martin or Coffee would be lynched.

[Danny]

I'm out now, probably won't be back before deadline.

[DaddyTorgo]

Aaargh.

[Lathum]

Unvote MartinD
Vote CW

[Coffee Warlord]

Please don't do that.

[Autumn]

Also, people keep claiming that I never provided any reasoning for my Saldana vote, but I backed up that vote with my reasons multiple times. I think he was the best vote day 1 and was a better vote day 2 than either Packer or Darth and I stand by that despite the fact he obviously was good.

FWIW, my point is not that you gave no reason for your vote (though you did give less than I expect from you normally) but that you stuck with votes on him even when he wasn't really a candidate. That seemed odd.

Thanks for answering my question about Jackal. I guess you saw something different than I did then. I didn't read anything in his play, thought you had seen what I saw in Chief's post.

I'm not sure I get why you're saying you'd like to vote me - if it's because I piggybacked on you, I most certainly did. I explained it's because I thought you were the seer and were trying to tell us something. I also had voted Saldana earlier days and thought he was a good candidate as well.

[EagleFan]

As of post 530:

Coffee Warlord 5 - thejuggler3 (470), Autumn (484), MartinD (491), Danny (509), Lathum (529)
MartinD 3 - DaddyTorgo (500), Coffee Warlord (501), Lathum (503), Raiders Army (506)

[thejuggler3]

I was going to wait for another 15 minutes then offer to change to break the stalemate, but Lathum saved me from that. Well, guess I'll just sit right here. Still am pretty sure we've got a wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

I was going to wait for another 15 minutes then offer to change to break the stalemate, but Lathum saved me from that. Well, guess I'll just sit right here. Still am pretty sure we've got a wolf.

I'm doubting it frankly..

[EagleFan]

I was going to wait for another 15 minutes then offer to change to break the stalemate, but Lathum saved me from that. Well, guess I'll just sit right here. Still am pretty sure we've got a wolf.

You still could... I've been wanting to get a chance to use the tie break mechanic... :)

Edit: Switch your vote that is...

[thejuggler3]

Okay, I'll lay it out there (the couple of beers with dinner helps).

DT, I trust you and somwhat Lathum. You both went Martin, and you both have more experience with the game than I do.

If you're very confident, I'm willing to switch over. I think Coffee is a wolf, and I don't get the wolf vibe from Martin, but I'll trust you guys if you'd like.

[DaddyTorgo]

I'm not sold on Martin either frankly...based on what Danny pointed out about him and Jackal exchanging votes...but we're too late now to get a move to any other candidate...not sure that CW is the way we want to go...he's put forth a lot of ideas to the village that have been very helpful that frankly I don't think he would have pointed out as a wolf...tie might be in our best interest...i dunno.

[thejuggler3]

I just get a bad feeling from CW. So far the only one I've been suspicious of that has been a wolf has been Jackal, so my instincts are a bit rusty. All things help equal, I'm ahppy where the votes are and don't want to change.

Just wanted to try to see if you felt strongly enough to ask me to change. DT, if you said you felt confident, I would switch. Because you're not feeling confident on Martin, that increases my resolve for CW.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm not sold on Martin either frankly...

Here's the deal why I'm still gunning on Martin. Many, many games ago, I was the vigilante. I second guessed myself. I switched my night kill action not once, but twice. Three different targets.

Target 1? Wolf.
Target 2? Wolf.
Target 3? Villager.

I pretty much decided from then on out I would never second guess myself again. It works...oh, occaisonally. :)

I could be wrong. I could be very, very wrong. But I'm not a wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

Here's the deal why I'm still gunning on Martin. Many, many games ago, I was the vigilante. I second guessed myself. I switched my night kill action not once, but twice. Three different targets.

Target 1? Wolf.
Target 2? Wolf.
Target 3? Villager.

I pretty much decided from then on out I would never second guess myself again. It works...oh, occaisonally. :)

I could be wrong. I could be very, very wrong. But I'm not a wolf.

I put more stock in Danny's reasons not to vote Martin frankly. But I feel you might be just as bad a vote...

[Coffee Warlord]

AND.

Let's face it. If you want to earn trust by moving votes to a wolf...it's the brutal you wanna move it to. Especially since we were already hurting.

[Lathum]

I would be more than willing to move back to Danny if the interest as there.

[Coffee Warlord]

Laaaaaaaaathum.

Change your vote back. Pretty please, with yaks on top.

[Coffee Warlord]

Or to Danny.

[Coffee Warlord]

Hey Juggler! Do Christmas a favor and re-force a tie.

[DaddyTorgo]

CW - do you have a preference between MartinD and Danny?

[Coffee Warlord]

CW - do you have a preference between MartinD and Danny?

I honestly don't. I wish I did.

The one and only reason I've stayed on Martin's case is because he hit a nerve with me, and come hell or high water, I'll stick on it. But Danny could very well be a better vote.

[Autumn]

My vote is Danny or CoffeeWarlord. So if for some reason people want to switch to Danny I'll follow. I'm not going to vote Martin though over those two.

[thejuggler3]

Grrrrr, if we can all agree on Danny, then fine. I still think Coffee, but I'm willing to negotiate because I find Danny suspicious as well.

[Coffee Warlord]

Sigh.

I can't wait any longer.

[Coffee Warlord]

This post has been sitting in my clipboard all night. Either it'll come out within the last hour to save me, (and sign my death warrant for the night kill), or 9pm CST, so unless the wolves already ordered my death, they won't have time to change their kill order.

So. Guys.

I'm Santa.

Night 1 - Scanned Passa. Yeah. That sucked.
Night 2 - Scanned Juggler. Good.
Night 3 - Scanned Danny. Good.

I am fairly certain Danny or Juggler is the cunning. A case could be made for either.

If by some miracle I survive, I'm scanning Autumn tonight.

By the way, I've been perfectly happy taking heat once I lost Chief. I figured the more heat I could get on me, the less likely the wolves would be to night kill me. Of course, I got a little bit TOO much heat, but them's the breaks.

[DaddyTorgo]

I don't think CW is a good vote...

[DaddyTorgo]

This post has been sitting in my clipboard all night. Either it'll come out within the last hour to save me, (and sign my death warrant for the night kill), or 9pm CST, so unless the wolves already ordered my death, they won't have time to change their kill order.

So. Guys.

I'm Santa.

Night 1 - Scanned Passa. Yeah. That sucked.
Night 2 - Scanned Juggler. Good.
Night 3 - Scanned Danny. Good.

I am fairly certain Danny or Juggler is the cunning. A case could be made for either.

If by some miracle I survive, I'm scanning Autumn tonight.

By the way, I've been perfectly happy taking heat once I lost Chief. I figured the more heat I could get on me, the less likely the wolves would be to night kill me. Of course, I got a little bit TOO much heat, but them's the breaks.

Kinda figured this was the case - saw some lil things in your posts - not sure why others didn't get the memo or move in other directions tonight...ugh.

[Coffee Warlord]

I don't think CW is a good vote...

How 'bout now? :P

[DaddyTorgo]

Tried to push it off onto others or at least to force a tie.

*sighs*

[thejuggler3]

Unvote CoffeeWarlord
Vote Danny

[DaddyTorgo]

How 'bout now? :P

I picked up on some hints earlier and some stuff I saw the past couple days...was trying to get guys off you as you can see, without being too overt about it.

[Coffee Warlord]

Tried to push it off onto others or at least to force a tie.

*sighs*

Yep, I held off as long as I possibly could, but we're just too close to the deadline now.

Losing the bodyguard AND Mrs Clause sucked. Hard.

[Autumn]

Sorry DT, CW. I seem to be pretty oblivious to the right hints this game.

Given that you're buying this DT, I'll move, although normally I'd be worried about such a late reveal.

<b>unvote Coffee Warlord</b>

[thejuggler3]

Damn! Daaaaamn!

Well, I guess I owe you an apology, Coffee. Beer's on me this weekend. :eek:

[thejuggler3]

Unvote Danny


Whoops, read your post closer, Coffee.


So who to go to?

[Autumn]

I've got to get back to work so I need to work up a vote right quick. I'd like to think Danny's the cunning since I was sure one of you two were bad. But obviously my gut's not working. I'm not sure where to go next.

[Coffee Warlord]

Danny (or you Juggler), could still be the cunning.

[thejuggler3]

True, the cunning is still out there, but the question is: what do we do tonight? We have 18 minutes to decide or let Martin get it.

[EagleFan]

As of post 563:

Coffee Warlord 3 - MartinD (491), Danny (509), Lathum (529)
MartinD 3 - DaddyTorgo (500), Coffee Warlord (501), Raiders Army (506)

[Autumn]

Well as much as I'd like to stick to my list, CW, I can't really see voting someone you've actually scanned. We have to assume one more wolf out there. I don't have a sense from Lathum, Martin or RA. And I don't have the time to go back through posts right now.

[Autumn]

I'll just vote Martin rather than risk a tie or CW getting it. If we're moving elsewhere we'll need to organize fast.

[Autumn]

<b>VOTE MARTIND</b>

[DaddyTorgo]

If that's the case Autumn, then you should go Martin I assume - otherwise you're leaving it up to the randomness and it could end up biting someone who's not on the list of lathum/ra/martin

[Autumn]

Okay, I'm sticking that there because I don't know how much longer I can stay in thread. DT and CW are both on him, so that feels the most solid place to go without much thought. I'll try to check back in ten minutes.

[thejuggler3]

DT, Lathum, thoughts? The only one I still have suspicion of that hasn't been scanned (or isn't FREAKING SANTA) is RA. Granted, Danny (or I) could be the Cunning, but I'd rather go after RA over anyone, but I don't think we have the votes to pull it off.

[Autumn]

I guess the rest of the CW voters are probably gone for the night actually now that I look at it, so I'll do that and assume that works.

[Coffee Warlord]

So, now that the cat is out of the bag.

DAMN YOU PEOPLE! YOU KILLED BY RED NOSED PET AND MY WIFE ON THE SAME NIGHT!

More importantly...


The Jackal 5 - Lathum (353), saldana (381), Chief Rum (388), Danny (395), DaddyTorgo (416)
Coffee Warlord 3 - thejuggler3 (378), MartinD (379) , The Jackal (422)
saldana 2 - Autumn (364), Raiders Army (384)
MartinD 1 - Coffee Warlord (362)

If Lathum is good, and his analysis is accurate (that being at least one wolf on Jackal), Danny is the cunning.

Which puts Juggler, Martin, Autumn, and RA on the list. If Danny is the cunning, that leaves Martin, Autumn, and RA.

You guys are on your own after that. I've got nothing past this point.

[DaddyTorgo]

Lathum and Juggler both in-thread...

[EagleFan]

As of post 570:

MartinD 4 - DaddyTorgo (500), Coffee Warlord (501), Raiders Army (506), Autumn (570)
Coffee Warlord 3 - MartinD (491), Danny (509), Lathum (529)

[DaddyTorgo]

So, now that the cat is out of the bag.

DAMN YOU PEOPLE! YOU KILLED BY RED NOSED PET AND MY WIFE ON THE SAME NIGHT!

More importantly...


The Jackal 5 - Lathum (353), saldana (381), Chief Rum (388), Danny (395), DaddyTorgo (416)
Coffee Warlord 3 - thejuggler3 (378), MartinD (379) , The Jackal (422)
saldana 2 - Autumn (364), Raiders Army (384)
MartinD 1 - Coffee Warlord (362)

If Lathum is good, and his analysis is accurate (that being at least one wolf on Jackal), Danny is the cunning.

Which puts Juggler, Martin, Autumn, and RA on the list. If Danny is the cunning, that leaves Martin, Autumn, and RA.

You guys are on your own after that. I've got nothing past this point.

You've done enough all game. We'll see if we can't bring it home...

[thejuggler3]

Vote RA

Heh, figure I'll give it a shot. Don't think Martin is a wolfie. If I'm wrong, this is going to look bad for me (voted Seer, didn't vote Wolf). Hahaha, but might as well go all out. :lol:

[Lathum]

Had to give my son a bottle, just caught up.

I think we lay off Danny for now, we can always go get the cunning.

Unvote CW
Vote MartinD

[DaddyTorgo]

Interesting vote by Juggler...

[DaddyTorgo]

Had to give my son a bottle, just caught up.

I think we lay off Danny for now, we can always go get the cunning.

Unvote CW
Vote MartinD

Aww - how is the lil kiddo? I see from the FB pics that he's already getting huger!

[Coffee Warlord]

AND. More to dwell upon before I activated my secret passage and flee for my life...

Back when my wife was ALIVE (grrrr)....

His last message suggested I scan Danny. Which I did. His other three people he was suspicious of, (by gut feeling), was Jackal (nice!), RA, and Autumn.

[Coffee Warlord]

FWIW's, he wasn't on board with my Martin Jihad either. But hey, what does a woman know. :)

[EagleFan]

As of post 580:

MartinD 5 - DaddyTorgo (500), Coffee Warlord (501), Raiders Army (506), Autumn (570), Lathum (578)
Coffee Warlord 2 - MartinD (491), Danny (509)
Raiders Army 1 - thejuggler3 (577)

[thejuggler3]

I'm kind of suspicious about Danny due to the odd voting at the start and that Jackal move once things were basically settled. I'm nervous about RA because it seems like I don't have much info on him, and I don't like unknowns.

Figured RA would be the best alternative to Martin. I've had three suspicions today: Coffee, Danny, and RA (in that order, I'll admit it...) Danny may be the cunning, but I'd rather vote for someone not scanned. That's why I thought I'd throw RA out there.

[Lathum]

Aww - how is the lil kiddo? I see from the FB pics that he's already getting huger!

This trip has been a little rough on him but he is doing great, he is huge.

[DaddyTorgo]

Figured RA would be the best alternative to Martin. I've had three suspicions today: Coffee, Danny, and RA (in that order, I'll admit it...) Danny may be the cunning, but I'd rather vote for someone not scanned. That's why I thought I'd throw RA out there.

Interesting idea

[Lathum]

RA and MArtinD were on my list with CW so I am ok with either,.

[Coffee Warlord]

This trip has been a little rough on him but he is doing great, he is huge.

Thanks for reminding me I have only 2 months till I get one of those. :)

[DaddyTorgo]

This trip has been a little rough on him but he is doing great, he is huge.

I can tell! I feel like when I saw you this summer he was like...not huge at all. Now he looks...much much bigger.

Babies are crazy!!

[EagleFan]

deadline

[Coffee Warlord]

I don't want to go in the cart!

[EagleFan]

You gather yet again with hopes very high of finding a "wolf". The early line of thinking is that Coffee Warlord must be the one to go. But a late development canges your mind. The vote swings to MartinD.

You all turn his direction. "You! You must be one of them!"

Thoughts of Rudolph and Mrs. Clause are in your head as you make your move on him.

"Oh bloody hell..." are the last words that he utters...

You search him and then you see the pointy ears. He was just an elf.


MartinD was a vanilla villager.

[Lathum]

Thanks for reminding me I have only 2 months till I get one of those. :)

life will never be the same

[DaddyTorgo]

Aaaargh. Predictable I guess?

[EagleFan]

As night turns to day the mood is grim. Everyone has a sinking feeling in the bottom of their stomach as you make your way to the Workshop. Just why do you go back to your rooms to sleep instead of staying together? That is a question for another day.

You begin to survey your remaining group...

Lathum? Where is Lathum?!?!


"I'm right here, the kid kept me up late and I overslept..."

Phew, you all made it?

Wait?

Where is Coffee Warlord?

You find him motionless, his beard trimmed (was it taken as a trophy?). He was the next victim. He is gone, kids everywhere will suffer.

Santa is dead....

Shock overwhelms everyone and all stand motionless with an emtpy feeling in the pit of your stomach.


Where do you go from here?


Coffee Warlord was Santa.

[EagleFan]

Day Five Begins

[Lathum]

I am now at my folks house and hope to to dive in to more analysis tomorrow. The good thing is we know DT is good. I think we steer clear of Danny and Juggler for tomorrow. That leaves myself, Autumn, and RA. I will likely be going RA.

[Autumn]

Well, that's basically what we expected. I was kind of hoping the wolves would forget their kill or something.

I too will probably have to wait until tomorrow, or late, to post anything indepth. All I can say is we need to get this next one right!

[thejuggler3]

Well, I guess it's as expected.

Hmmm... I'm still a bit suspicious of Danny, but I'm not going to make the wild guess that he's the cunning. RA is still the one I was suspicious of yesterday, but I don't want to jump on that yet. Time to go over yesterday's posts, check the voting record, and see what I come up with before placing a vote.

[Danny]

Vote Autumn

[Danny]

Didn't read Coffee as Santa, but I figured both he and Martin were villagers. I feel very strong about Autumn being a wolf. He made strong effort to link CW to Jackal and has tried to piggy back on others sticking their neck out while laying under the radar himself.

[Danny]

Just a note here, but we are at en end game scenario now. There are three players we should not vote tonight. DT (cleared) and Juggler and I. There is at least one wolf (and possibly two) out of the other three players. Those players are

Lathum
Autumn
Raiders Army

Votes should only be for those players to increase our chances of getting a wolf.

[Danny]

If we happen to a hit a wolf tonight that is not the cunning, then Juggler and I get thrown back into the mix with everyone else for finding the last wolf.

[thejuggler3]

Looked over all the posts from today. Gotta go with:

Vote Raiders Army

His actions are just way too suspicious. Can't believe I spent the last two days on the freaking seer. Anyway, who I would consider my best suspect is Danny, but with him passing the scan, he's either the cunning or safe. I'll go with a surer bet.

Since he came in, RA put the capstone on PackerFanatic, tried to start an early run on Chief the day the wolves took him out, went with sal instead of Jackal when this didn't pan out, and then went with Martin (to be fair, on this one both the prime suspects were villagers). Some of that is excusable for him coming in late to the game, but either he's the unluckiest guy or something is just wrong. I can't help but see the wolves using his late entry to try to get some more obvious votes in. I just can't write off all the misteps. He's hit #1 on my list.

Have more detailed thoughts, but head says it's sleepy. We'll see where things come up tomorrow.

G'night folks.

[Danny]

Just to see if my gut is right, my guess is the last two wolves are juggler and Autumn. I wont be voting Juggler today for the reasons I posted, but throwing this out there in case I end up right :)

[thejuggler3]

Didn't catch the new page, Danny. It'd sure be nice to get the cunning today :) . That would pretty much be the nail in the coffin, but that's just my positive attitude.

Agree that we need to go with one of the three non-scanned, non-guaranteed villagers.

Open to some discussion if there's something I'm missing, but I still think RA is the best bet of the bunch.

That early Chief vote and switch when it went nowhere sells it for me.

Gnight folks!

[Lathum]

what is the plan for weekend play?

[Raiders Army]

Well, that didn't go well.

[Raiders Army]

Well then, in my mind I'm convinced. There are six players left. DT, Juggler, and Danny are all cleared. I know I'm good, so that means that Lathum and Autumn are the remaining wolves.

[Raiders Army]

Wait...okay. Only DT is cleared right? Juggler and Danny could be the cunning.

Being that I don't think Lathum is a wolf...I'll have to go with Autumn for today.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Autumn]

I'll be out most of the morning, gotta take my youngest to get his stitches out. I'm not sure who I'll vote, but obviously it won't be me. I will argue against myself when I have time, since I think a vote for me ends the game, but I'll have to do that later. All I can say is that a vote like Raider's, picking me over Lathum for no reason, isn't going to win us the game.

It's entirely possible we have two wolves out of the three of us, something I'll be keeping in mind as I look that over. Also possible Juggler's playing the quiet wolf and I'm barking up the wrong tree with Danny. I certainly haven't done too good so far. Though I have to say Danny's strange play makes a lot more sense if he's the cunning looking for a scan. That's the only explanation that's made sense to me so far.

Lathum and RA are two players I don't have a strong read on right now, so I'll have to come back to this later.

[EagleFan]

what is the plan for weekend play?

No weekend deadline. Monday will be the next day.

[Passacaglia]

life will never be the same

Word.

[Autumn]

I guess I haven't missed much. My time will be limited today, customer's are breathing down my neck and so are the kids.

I hate being targeted as I'm not sure Raider's Army is where I'd want to go with a vote, and I don't want to be forced into the wrong vote just because I'm on the block. The place I feel surest about is Danny, who's been pinging me all game, and him being cunning makes a lot of sense. That feels the highest percentage play for me, versus choosing randomly between Lathum and Raider's Army, neither of whom have struck me as wolf-like.

I'm not going to have a lot of time to pore over votes. I'd love to hear people's arguments for Raider, those who are voting him. Those who are voting me I'd love to hear your arguments too, as I feel I've played the way I always do. I know I usually get heat as I talk a lot in thread. Other guys slide by without saying much and somehow that makes me more wolfish than them.

Certainly if I was a wolf I would have piled onto Jackal along with Chief and Danny. I didn't in order to keep it closer and see if we could draw a wolf out. No wolf is going to stick their neck out like that when there's a simple play that can draw them trust.

Raider's Army just doesn't have much evidence either way, having come in late and essentially missed two day's voting. Lathum I would be more likely to vote. He's been quieter than usual at spots, playing the helpful villager other spots with his analysis. I'd have to look back at it to see whether I still would trust it or whether it's a wolf guiding us.

[Lathum]

Vote count?

[EagleFan]

As of post 615:

Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610)
Raiders Army 1 - thejuggler3 (604)

[Lathum]

I have to ask myself why would Autumn not want to vote RA and instead look at me. Either he and RA are both wolves and he wants to push it my way, or RA is a wolf.

If Autumn is a wolf why not just vote RA and be done with it?

I am thinking maybe they are both wolves but don't want to tip their hands but RA is the more likely choice.

VOTE RA

[Lathum]

I hope someone is around at deadline to break ties

[Autumn]

In before dinner and kids. I know I should just vote RA to save myself, and maybe I will. But I'd like to make an educated choice - not being sure who the wolves are, I don't know if they're the ones encouraging the RA vote. I haven't had time today to sit and look at things myself, and I hate to be led by the nose to voting him instead of you, Lathum.

I'll be back after the kids are in bed.

[EagleFan]

As of post 619:

Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610)
Raiders Army 2 - thejuggler3 (604), Lathum (617)

[Autumn]

All right, the rest of the family went out for a bit so I have a couple moments to post something. And I had the time doing dishes to think things through. Unfortunately I can't read posts while I do the dishes, but I realized I don't need to if I just examine the end game scenarios. We know the situation, know what the wolves have to do and so we should be able to ID them. I did this thinking for my own benefit so you'll have to excuse me leaving myself out of the analysis.

I have two scenarios to examine. One is if there is one cunning wolf among the scanned and one among the rest of us. The other is that there are two wolves among the non-scanned. In either case the wolves just need to escape today and they win. If they get caught today then they have to escape one more lynch vote tomorrow. We have to factor in that they're playing for the end game then: hopefully escape lynch tomorrow, but if not make sure that the last wolf is out of the running tomorrow.

Let's take the first: either Danny or Juggler3 is a wolf, and then one of Raider's Army or Lathum. Both Danny and Raider's Army have had a lot of attention before today, they would both be likely targets, Lathum and Juggler are more under the radar. The wolf strategy here depends mostly on whether the wolf is Lathum or RA. If Lathum is the wolf, then all they have to do is avoid attention today, keep the vote focused on me and RA. Danny went into the day saying he was heading my direction. Lathum expressed an intention to vote RA last night. Juggler voted RA fairly early. So everything matches there.

If RA was the wolf, not Lathum, then the wolf strategy would be to have the scanned wolf vote RA, but try to lean things to me. They can always switch their vote last minute to swap the lynch if possible - if not they go into tomorrow looking clear for voting for a wolf. If the scanned wolf votes me but RA gets lynched and is a wolf, the scanned wolf looks bad and goes down the second day. Here, Juggler voted RA, so could be following this scenario. Danny however voting me would stand out tomorrow if RA gets lynched, and probably get himself lynched. Danny/RA seems an unlikely combination.

Now let's assume both Danny and Juggler are good guys. Lathum and RA are the last two wolves. They're in a tighter position - they have to get me lynched today to win, but RA is a likely target. If RA gets lynched, Lathum's got to look good enough tomorrow to deflect the vote to Danny or Juggler. So obviously Lathum votes RA, RA votes me, and if they can Lathum switches later. Again this matches with what's happening.

So the vote situation we're in now matches either Danny and Lathum as the wolves, Juggler and RA or Lathum and RA. I'm not sure which of those is the most likely, but 2/3 of them involve Lathum, so it makes more sense for me to vote Lathum than RA.

<b>VOTE LATHUM</b>

[Raiders Army]

I'm not sure how you can vote Lathum being that he was key to bagging a wolf (IIRC).

I'm sorry I'm not more help right now, but to be honest if I were voting for someone, it'd probably be me. My voting record is beyond abysmal. I don't really have anything in my defense other than I'm a vanilla villager, which isn't anything at all.

I think we'll have to hit a wolf tonight and it'll be hard to root out the cunning.

[Autumn]

Well, again I haven't been able to look back at voting history, this is all based on endgame stuff. I don't recall how Jackal's lynch went down. If someone has voting history? I'll look at it but i think we all know wolves sometimes have great voting histories. This seems to me a way to get around that.

And frankly in one of those three scenarios you and Lathum are pack mates ;-)

[Raiders Army]

OK, so going off this list

Saldana-Casts first stone on DT D1, D2 switches off Darth and onto PF, both known villagers. Don't really see a point in a wolf doing this since either way they get a villager lynched.

Martin D-D1 casts an early second vote for DT, D2 casts 3rd vote for PF, putting him 2 votes ahead of RA and breaking a tie with DV, who at the time Could it be a ploy to protect RA and set up an early DV/ PF showdown?

Chief Rum-D1 CR puts out a "self preservation" vote even though there were only 4 total votes cast but he had to leave for the day. He pushed DT up by 2 at that point over PF, both villagers. Don't see a wolf pulling that move early D1. D2 votes DV creating a tie with PF and DV, both villagers. This move looks bad considering both are villagers, any way you slice it you can spin that move to look bad. Leaning towards trusting CR for now

Lathum- LAte vote on DT D1, late vote on PF D2. Could be wolfy based on the late votes.

theJuggler-Votes DT late D1 putting it pretty much out of reach using the argumenthe didn't want a tie. D2 unvotes PAss and votes PF, putting more distance between PF and DV. Don't see a wolf making this move, really no point there since he knows as a wolf they both are villagers and it makes him look bad.

CoffeeWarlord-D1 unvotes Saldana and votes PF, kind of a strange move, especially since we know PF is now a villager and Sal and CW are both unknowns. Could the D1 Sal vote be to attempt to buy trust? D2 early jump on PF and leaves it there. Something doesn't sit right with me about him. It also seems like he was trying to play the helpful villager early.

RA-no D1 vote-D2 late vote on PF doesn't give us much to go with. The connection that interests me is a potential one between him and MartinD

So that is all the people with votes on known villagers both days.

The others

Danny- D1 casts vote for Saldana, making him the 4th candidate. Claims he isn't a fan of voting DT because he has 3 votes already. Also doesn't want to vote CR or PF, no idea why not. Instead he goes Saldana. Now we know PF and DT are both villagers, could he possible have been protecting CR? Or was he bringing in Sal, confident he likely doesn't get lynched but can buy trust down the road? D2 he goes Saldana and sticks with it despite there being no traction. Not sure if he came back to the thread prior to deadline. all in all not looking like great moves from Danny.

The Jackal- Late vote on Sal D1 bringing us closer to a tie, a very bad thing. If Sal and Jackal are both wolves this is actually a brilliant move for Jackal. A tie ensures Sal isn't lynched, and eithre PF or CR are. A DT lynch and Jackals vote is completely justifiable, a Sal lynch would require a come from behing and would make Jackal very trusted. D2 votes DV, claiming he doesn't want to nail PF, and brings DV a notch closer. At that time RA, Pass and Sal also had votes. Something about him doesn't seem right to me.


Autumn- D1 vote on an unknown Sal after unvoting DV. I don't see this as a wolf play, why switch your vote from a known villager when you could easily leave it buried there. D2 casts an early vote for PF, a known villager and leaves it there. Nothing to fishy here.

Going off my analysis the people who look worst are JAckal, CW, Danny, and MartinD.

Now of that group they were all on eithe DT or Sal D1 except CW. I have to wonder if the wolves would leave him on an island like that or if all the wolves were on DT/Sal D1.

For now I am tossing CW out.

Based on my analysis I am gpoing to

VOTE JACKAL

These two. He stayed on Jackal the whole time when CW could've been a viable lynch.

[Raiders Army]

I'm not sure why I'm defending him either. :)

[Autumn]

That does look pretty good, doesn't it. Huh. Well that makes me lean towards the RA/Juggler theory I guess.

[Autumn]

I've got to get the kids to bed. It's not looking like we're going to have an active night, so I guess I'm going to hope that you guys are right ( and RA is right, in some sense) and switch for now. If they go down fast enough I'll be back to think some more.

<b>unvote lathum
vote raider's army</b>

[Raiders Army]

That's funny and ironic. Anyhow, I can't switch my vote (in self-defense), but I can guarantee you all that we will lose the game if I'm lynched.

[EagleFan]

As of post 627:

Raiders Army 3 - thejuggler3 (604), Lathum (617), Autumn (627)
Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610)

[Lathum]

So at this point DT has a meaningless vote.

[Raiders Army]

The only defense I have is why would I vote for MartinD and push him over CW yesterday prior to CW's reveal?

The bad thing is that MartinD was a villager as well, which doesn't help my case. :)

[Raiders Army]

So at this point DT has a meaningless vote.

Yes, and if I were a wolf at this point, I'd say good game villagers.

But as I am a vanilla villager, I will say good game wolves. You played well. Congrats on your win.

[Danny]

I have to ask myself why would Autumn not want to vote RA and instead look at me. Either he and RA are both wolves and he wants to push it my way, or RA is a wolf.

If Autumn is a wolf why not just vote RA and be done with it?

I am thinking maybe they are both wolves but don't want to tip their hands but RA is the more likely choice.

VOTE RA

Or he voted you initially because you're the other wolf and in the case he lynched, you look better.

[thejuggler3]

Spent a bit reading up. I'm not sure who the other wolf is. I'm still gold on my vote for RA (and I think we've got a wolf). If we're lucky, he's the cunning.

If RA is the cunning, then it's I'm torn betwen Autumn and Lathum. Autumn is a bit more likely due to Lathum's vote on Jackal, but I'll have to re-read all their posts this weekend.

If RA's not the cunning, that brings myself and Danny into the mix. I'v been suspicious of Danny on and off the whole game. He's always been my #3 or so suspcious person, and I'm going to kick myself if he turns out to be a wolf (given my #1 choices have been a pile of you know what.)

[Autumn]

Whereas if RA's a wolf I think we look straight to Juggler. No way that Danny votes me if RA and he are in cahoots. However, I'm not sure how to determine between Juggler and Lathum. I guess if Lathum's voting record looks as good as RA suggests, then we vote Juggler. If Lathum offed Jackal like that as a wolf, more power to him.

[Lathum]

I would have no reason at that point in the game to vote Jackal, if I am going to throw a fellow wolf under the bus it would be with a late deciding vote.

[Autumn]

I'll take a couple minutes and read back now. Kids are asleep and I should be working but I feel lame not having a vote history down at this point.

[Autumn]

I have to agree, Lathum, that's a stretch to imagine you pushing Jackal that early in the day. There was a vote on Raider's Army, but if you two were the wolves that shouldn't have spooked you so much that you'd push the brutal with so many other candidates out there. Though I have seen in the past you pull some amazing wolf moves.

I wish DT would get here and vote RA - I'm afraid that Juggler might be the other wolf and swap at the last second.

[Coffee Warlord]

....you better watch out....you better not cry....

ZOMBIE SANTA KNOWS ALL.

[Autumn]

That should be the sequel to this game. Zombie Santa.

[thejuggler3]

Zombie Santa! I left out some warm brains for ya!

[Autumn]

Apparently Raider's Army offed EagleFan. That's one method we didn't expect.

[Lathum]

Long write ups like this in an endgame scenario always make me nervous

[Autumn]

I hope we're not about to get paid back for the Christmas Miracle. It's the Christmas Massacre.

[Raiders Army]

As I said before. Good game wolves. Even if we had been able to get one of you today, the cunning would've been difficult.

Nicely played. I'm guessing Lathum and Juggler are the wolves.

[EagleFan]

Quite sorry, I got caught up in something and lost track of time. Processing now.

[DaddyTorgo]

Sorry guys - was in an offsite retreat for work all day and didn't even get online. Ended up stopping in to say hi to my parents when I got back to my car from being in the city, and before i knew it it was 10PM and I hadn't left there.

My bad.

[Autumn]

I hope you were getting laid, EF, because you were killing us here.

[EagleFan]

Time draws near again. You have two suspects in mind. It must be Raiders Army or Autumn... both?

You finally decide on Raiders Army in a close vote (again depriving the Christmas spirit of his tie breaker).

You find him and he just sits there and seems to have accepted his fate. "Silly fools" are his final words. Soon he is just a memory and you search him and find that he has an Al Davis fan club membership.

"See, a wolf, we got one!!!!!"

No, sadly it is just a misguided elf. Raiders Army was a vanilla villager.

Then Autumn leaps towards DaddyTorgo and before anyone can react DaddyTorgo is down and no longer moving.

DaddyTorgo was Jack Skellington, but you all knew that.

Autumn and Lathum stare eye to eye, then thejuggler3 steps forward to stand next to Autumn. The two begin to laugh. They look at each other and utter one final word before launching themselves at Danny and Lathum... "fools..."


Game Over!!!

Wolves Win!!!

[EagleFan]

I hope you were getting laid, EF, because you were killing us here.

Could be... ;)

[Autumn]

Hooray!

[Autumn]

Could be... ;)

I knew it!

[EagleFan]

Well played wolves.

Though I thought you were about to be caught yesterday when you both jumped off CW right away as only you two would know that CW wasn't a wolf with a fake reveal trying to lure the real santa out.

[Autumn]

Yeah, DT coming on strong in favor of the reveal and saying CW had been dropping hints is what made me move. Though I have to admit, I missed them. That was a huge Christmas gift in our lap because we weren't going after CW and he would have had me.

[EagleFan]

Thoughts on the Christmas Miracle on day one? I remember there was talk a while back about coming up with a way that there was no day one lynch and yet still have the vote mean something. I figured if everyone voted thinking there was going to be a lynch that would be the best way for it to mean something.

I had a plan in place for how to handle each side being "screwed" by that. Then you go and lynch the "Jack". Was hoping to see how his role was going to play out.

[Lathum]

I had my vote changed to autumn and erased the post. Him wanting go go after me fir ne real reason threw me off for sure. Juggler I wouldn't have gotten. Always hard to nail a first timer as a wolf. Still. Well played by all. Thanks for running it ef.

[Lathum]

Dola- just s little soap box but I hate it when people post their alligence before the fm can do a write up. Really takes away from the flavor of the game. Not trying to single out ra as others have find it as well b

[Lathum]

Stupid iPhone.

[thejuggler3]

That was fun. I know it must have been hard with me being a new guy. Coffee had me dead to rights. I didn't think that my whole "this is my first time, so I'll go with the flow a bit" had him thinking I was a wolf right away (he scanned me night 2). Luckily, I was the cunning, so I was trying to give myself a little heat for a scan.

[thejuggler3]

Just to give some insight, I was playing sort of how I normally play (with the exception of early in the game when I milked the new player thing a bit.)

I tend to do what I think is right. I have no problem switching if need be, especially to break ties. I usually lay out who I think is guilty as best I can. The only big difference is when I'm a villager, I'm willing to be swayed by others more if they make good arguments. Often that gets me voted out as a wolf, but I tend to be a colaborator and compromiser. People get suspicious of vote switchers, especially since it usually turns out bad when I switch.

Figure that may help for another game.

All in all, this was deinitely the most intense game I've played. I guess I can say it really did take me a few days to get in the flow. By the end of day 2 I had a chart with everyone's votes, movements, suspicions, etc.

I've only ever done werefolf live before (Gencon Indianapolis). You'll probably see me in other games here. Thanks everyone, for the good time! And thanks to my fellow wolves. What big teeth you have!

[thejuggler3]

One last fun fact: one of the reasons I wanted to get Coffee out is because he inroduced me the game here, and I couldn't help but feel it would be funny if I got him killed for it.

Merry Christmas, CW :D

[Autumn]

I had my vote changed to autumn and erased the post. Him wanting go go after me fir ne real reason threw me off for sure. Juggler I wouldn't have gotten. Always hard to nail a first timer as a wolf. Still. Well played by all. Thanks for running it ef.

Juggler will attest that I was expecting you to change your vote right up until the very last second. I never quite know if I've got you snowed. I was glad that DT didn't show up because I thought the two of you might talk yourselves back over to me.

Yeah, I did the whole Lathum thing today to try to throw you guys for a bit of a loop. Danny had us nailed and I wanted to at least sow confusion for tomorrow if I did get voted off. I figured it would look like I was trying to save RA or you and maybe get Juggler of the hook tomorrow.

Really i slipped up last night. I should have had juggler come out today voting me along with Danny. I think that would have worked very well, but I was too busy to really figure out a strategy.

I hate being a wolf against Danny. Sorry, but I will probably just night kill you day one next time.

[EagleFan]

Glad to have you aboard juggler, great to have new faces.

[Autumn]

Oh and kudos on CW for his seer job. I really did not suspect him at all. And scanning both Juggler, and potentially me. Right spot on.

[Danny]

Not surprised at all, I knew Autumn was a wolf and I figured Juggler was the other. I consider this a win for me ;)

[Autumn]

Just like last game was a win for me I guess ;-) Man it is hard to sneak past you.

[Danny]

Just to see if my gut is right, my guess is the last two wolves are juggler and Autumn. I wont be voting Juggler today for the reasons I posted, but throwing this out there in case I end up right :)

:D

[Danny]

Just like last game was a win for me I guess ;-) Man it is hard to sneak past you.

I'm just glad I had a good game cause I was awful in the last game.

[Danny]

You guys played well, I think you made good choices in your night kills.

[Autumn]

Thanks, Chief and Saldana were good guesses, but we were pretty loss for the seer after that.

[Danny]

I wonder if it was hard for EagleFan to resist making Lathum and Saldana Clause and Ms. Clause.

[Chief Rum]

Good game, wolves. Good thing, you got me out. I had pretty much settled on Autumn as the unscanned wolf and juggler as the scanned wolf (CW to back me up, I PM'd him that, although I admitted I wasn't sure on either of you).

I became even more sure on Autumn while reading his posts today, although juggler didn't post enough for me to firm up my suspicions there. My suspicion of juggler wasn't so much on his play, but on CW's hunch that he was a wolf, and my belief that Danny was not a wolf.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda... good game, wolves!

[Danny]

Good game, wolves. Good thing, you got me out. I had pretty much settled on Autumn as the unscanned wolf and juggler as the scanned wolf (CW to back me up, I PM'd him that, although I admitted I wasn't sure on either of you).

I became even more sure on Autumn while reading his posts today, although juggler didn't post enough for me to firm up my suspicions there. My suspicion of juggler wasn't so much on his play, but on CW's hunch that he was a wolf, and my belief that Danny was not a wolf.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda... good game, wolves!

Too bad, we could have teamed up to take them down. Of course, with you I always have a little bit of doubt as you are the toughest player for me to read

[Autumn]

I wonder if it was hard for EagleFan to resist making Lathum and Saldana Clause and Ms. Clause.

I said that to the wolves at one point when we were trying to figure out who it was, and I realized it might be them. I didn't think he'd be able to stop himself from laughing.

[EagleFan]

I wonder if it was hard for EagleFan to resist making Lathum and Saldana Clause and Ms. Clause.

Very hard to resist. But went with the random instead. :)

[EagleFan]

I said that to the wolves at one point when we were trying to figure out who it was, and I realized it might be them. I didn't think he'd be able to stop himself from laughing.

I thought about giving them role reversals and making Lathum the woman this time.... :)

[Lathum]

I consider this a victory that I wasn't lynched by day 2.

this was really fun, thanks for running it EF. Nice to have a game with active participants again. Maybe after the new year we can get some momentum going.

[Raiders Army]

Dola- just s little soap box but I hate it when people post their alligence before the fm can do a write up. Really takes away from the flavor of the game. Not trying to single out ra as others have find it as well b

Noted. Will not do so again. Thanks for the feedback.

[Raiders Army]

Again, I apologize to all for not being there for really the first two days.

[saldana]

great game guys, good job wolves...no idea how you could have had me pegged as rudolph...was that just a guess?

thanks EF, i echo the sentiments of others in the hope that this game can give us a little momentum coming out of the holidays.

[Autumn]

We knew there was something up with you Saldana, but weren't sure exactly what. I don't remember what gave it away, I think it seemed like Chief and some others were avoiding voting for you. I figured worst case scenario you'd been scanned as good.

We were hoping we'd get Mr. & Mrs. Clause in one go, so I was actually disappointed when you turned out to be Rudolph. It was good to get that out of the game though.

[MartinD]

Thanks for running the game EagleFan - was good to be able to play for the first time in a while. I do need to apologise for not being around more, particularly on Thursday - ended up having a very busy week at work, so wasn't able to spend as much time keeping up with the game as I would have liked.

[DaddyTorgo]

Thanks EF!!

Tough game for us villagers - good game wolves.

Wolves on a little run here of late...

[PackerFanatic]

Twas fun, even if only lasted two days :)

[thejuggler3]

Yeah, a lot of you were so, so close. We were walking a tight-rope the last few nights.

Sal, what got me was when you were in trouble with the vote, you switched to Jackal. I thought it was odd because for a defensive vote, you should have either went Martin of Coffee (both of who had more votes). It made us think that something was up. Because the suspicion was on Chief, we thought maybe we'd get both the clauses with you.

[thejuggler3]

I'm looking forward to trying another game. Since I was working from home, it made it easy for me to be on a lot more. If I have to travel, I'll be available less. We'll have to see when the next game comes up.

[The Jackal]

Totally watching Nightmare before Christmas on Disney right now. Until the Flyers game, of course.

Good game everyone, was nice to see this kind of participation again. Stick around juggler!

[Lathum]

I'm looking forward to trying another game. Since I was working from home, it made it easy for me to be on a lot more. If I have to travel, I'll be available less. We'll have to see when the next game comes up.

saldana has a ruleset that he never got to use and is going to post signups for after he gets home on Monday. He isnt planning on starting the game til the monday after new years so that no one is trying to play across the holidays

[Coffee Warlord]

I am now highly tempted to dig up one of my old rulesets I never used, to give Juggler a nice wacko game.

[PackerFanatic]

I was thinking the other day that we need to do another political game - the one that CR ran way back in the day (woah, just looked and it was 2 years ago, crazy!) That or the Dungeon game...or the Marvel game. There have been some really fun ones :) Not sure how you guys come up with them but I definitely enjoy getting involved.

[hoopsguy]

If anyone wants to give the Marvel game a run I'll be happy to supply them either ruleset. Both of them are pretty insane time commitments to run, but I would absolutely love to play in one of those games someday.