Beware the Fat Man in Red (Game Over: Village Wins!)

[Zinto]

The whole GE is a seer or is not the seer will take care of its self so I am not inclined to spend any more time trying to figure out what happened last night. GE is the only person I would not look at voting for thus far regardless of who was on when he revealed or not.

[britrock88]

Seems that if Britrick was a wolf, pushing a villager to 3 where he did D1 would be somewhat bold and unusual, unless another wolf was on the block and he was trying to protect him, which would make Autumn look worse (DT also, but then they've voted for each other to start the day, so it would be a little unusual).

Hehe. I got destroyed in a previous WW game for tying an early vote at 2-2-2-2, and was just voting to avoid that. Can I do no right?!?

[JAG]

Hehe. I got destroyed in a previous WW game for tying an early vote at 2-2-2-2, and was just voting to avoid that. Can I do no right?!?

Welcome to Werewolf. ;)

[Zinto]

Haha Brit, every vote you place is going to be suspicious that is how the game works.

[Zinto]

I guess I kind of agree with DT that him, Abe, and Jag where all around to unvote and could have changed the kill order to GE when he revealed. I just don't see this as an admission of being good or bad since they could have changed the kill order and the kill could have been blocked from an earlier order.

[CrimsonFox]

Hehe. I got destroyed in a previous WW game for tying an early vote at 2-2-2-2, and was just voting to avoid that. Can I do no right?!?

not at all :). everyone makes their own excuses for whatever vote you make to be a wolfy vote. :)

[Chief Rum]

Hehe. I got destroyed in a previous WW game for tying an early vote at 2-2-2-2, and was just voting to avoid that. Can I do no right?!?

Wait a sec. Your screen name is britrock88?!? The audacity! You're a wolf!!!

[Chief Rum]

The whole GE is a seer or is not the seer will take care of its self so I am not inclined to spend any more time trying to figure out what happened last night. GE is the only person I would not look at voting for thus far regardless of who was on when he revealed or not.

I think whatever happened last night will turn out to be one of the more important and telling things to happen in the game. But we won't know what that is for sure without more days and votes and kills happening, and by then it might be too late.

[Zinto]

Oh, undoubtedly it will be important going forward but we are not going to figure out what happened today and I don't think spending much more time trying to figure it out is going to help us right now.

[Zinto]

So Mau still has not checked in? Can you PM him again EF if you have not done so already?

[Zinto]

I am not inclined to vote for Mau today, since I know this is meta gamey but I assume that if he was a wolf he would be getting a bunch of PMs during the wolf talk.

[Zinto]

Oh and we learn nothing if Mau is a villager and we lynch him since he did not vote yesterday and it is looking like he will not be voting today.

[EagleFan]

Trying to find mau. Have to go grab something to eat and head to my shift so I will jump back online after things settle down (maybe I'll be lucky and everything will be settled when I get there... not holding my breath though).

[Chief Rum]

What is annoying is I have seen mau posts today in the Off Topic forum, so he is around. He just isn't checking in here. Not sure if he's just super busy and not really paying attention or if he just forgot.

[Zinto]

I think I am going to vote for Abe. He has an early vote that stuck until he changed it up and voted for Mau which I just do not see as a good play right now.

Vote Abe

[Zinto]

I am sad that now that I am here there is almost no one else around. Oh and I have work at 10:30 again so I won't be around at the deadline again.

[Autumn]

time post voter votee #
22:57 159 Abe mauboy 1
23:21 168 brit DT 1
09:14 185 DT brit 1
09:26 188 Autumn CF 1
11:55 211 CF mauboy 2

1 mauboy - Abe (159), CF (211)
1 DT - britrock (168)
1 britrock - DT (185)
1 CF - Autumn (188)

I think this vote count, plus a vote on Abe is the recent count. That means we have 5 candidates at 7 o'clock. No likey.

I also voted CF partly because he always gets flustered when he's a wolf and gets even a single vote. I didn't see any freakout, so I feel better about him anyway. I'm not going to vote Mauboy at the moment, too much danger of him having a role. DT I voted for yesterday, and I'd rather see folks D2 and get more history. So it's either Brit or Abe to consolidate on. No offense to Brit, but I value Abe as a villager, so I'm going to hope he is and keep him around.

<b>unvote crimsonfox
vote britrock88</b>

[Chief Rum]

I am falling into the trap of allowing the previous votes to make my vote easier. As in, I'll choose from the options currently available.

I don't really have a good feel on a candidate yet. After work, I will take a closer look and maybe switch to another candidate. But for now I want to put in a vote so that I have one in here.

I agree with the current thinking that it is dangerous to vote mau right now, and not likely to produce a wolf. And Autumn just voted britrock, so I don't ant to piggyback on him. That leaves DT, who I voted for yesterday. My vote yesterday was a Day One vote, essentially meaningless, but I haven't seen anything yet to think DT isn't a decent enough hold over vote for now.

VOTE DADDY TORGO

I should revisit this before the deadline and look closer at yesterday's vote.

[Autumn]

So I think it's this:

2 mauboy - Abe (159), CF (211)
2 DT - britrock (168) Chief Rum (268)
2 britrock - DT (185) Autumn (267)
1 Abe Sargent - Zinto (265)

[DaddyTorgo]

I am falling into the trap of allowing the previous votes to make my vote easier. As in, I'll choose from the options currently available.

I don't really have a good feel on a candidate yet. After work, I will take a closer look and maybe switch to another candidate. But for now I want to put in a vote so that I have one in here.

I agree with the current thinking that it is dangerous to vote mau right now, and not likely to produce a wolf. And Autumn just voted britrock, so I don't ant to piggyback on him. That leaves DT, who I voted for yesterday. My vote yesterday was a Day One vote, essentially meaningless, but I haven't seen anything yet to think DT isn't a decent enough hold over vote for now.

VOTE DADDY TORGO

I should revisit this before the deadline and look closer at yesterday's vote.

If I was a wolf the seer would be dead right now. What about that don't you get?

[Chief Rum]

If I was a wolf the seer would be dead right now. What about that don't you get?

I have been pretty open in my doubts about GE being the seer, especially in the wake of what didn't happen last night.

No one is cleared in my mind (although I am certainly not going to lynch GE, he's last on the list).

[Autumn]

If I was a wolf the seer would be dead right now. What about that don't you get?

That kind of absolute talk just makes you look suspicious though. It's good evidence in your favor, sure, but you play enough to know that there's other possibilities.

[mauchow]

Holy crap I forgot about this!

[mauchow]

Villager checking in, for real!

I'm really sorry for not being here. I will catch up on the thread and ensure I am a part of this for the rest of the way.

[DaddyTorgo]

That kind of absolute talk just makes you look suspicious though. It's good evidence in your favor, sure, but you play enough to know that there's other possibilities.

True.

[Abe Sargent]

I think whatever happened last night will turn out to be one of the more important and telling things to happen in the game. But we won't know what that is for sure without more days and votes and kills happening, and by then it might be too late.

Sounds right to me

[Abe Sargent]

I am not inclined to vote for Mau today, since I know this is meta gamey but I assume that if he was a wolf he would be getting a bunch of PMs during the wolf talk.

I've seen that meta game strategy backfire before. Plus, I'd rather vote for a non-participant over a participant every single time.

[Abe Sargent]

I think I am going to vote for Abe. He has an early vote that stuck until he changed it up and voted for Mau which I just do not see as a good play right now.

Vote Abe

Baby's first vote!!!!


:)

[Abe Sargent]

Villager checking in, for real!

I'm really sorry for not being here. I will catch up on the thread and ensure I am a part of this for the rest of the way.

unvote mauboy

[Abe Sargent]

Lol, I love that I was getting caught up and defended my mauboy vote only t ofind that he had already checked in earlier!!!

[Abe Sargent]

Alright, who do I want to vote for let me look at the count and stuff

[Abe Sargent]

Man I'ma half more posts than JAG!

[Abe Sargent]

So I think it's this:

2 mauboy - Abe (159), CF (211)
2 DT - britrock (168) Chief Rum (268)
2 britrock - DT (185) Autumn (267)
1 Abe Sargent - Zinto (265)

Well, with me moving off mauboy, that puts pressure on DT and br right now.


vote britrock

I don't buy DT as a wolf right now. BR could be the quieter stealthier wolf we often see.

[JAG]

Glad to see Mau showed up. We need a fake reveal. :)

Still not really sure what to do with my vote.

[Zinto]

Well I guess my Abe vote is not going to stick so I am going to move it. Since it is looking to be between Brit and DT I need to go back and reread and look at the votes yesterday.

[mauchow]

vote abe

Too quick to get on me and too quick to get off me.

[Zinto]

Ooops I forgot to....


Unvote Abe

[Zinto]

Of course Mau would vote for Abe right when I unvote him :)

[mauchow]

Abe and Zinto are the wolves. BOom! Nailed it.

[mauchow]

Okay where were we? I gotta catch up in the post count department, damn it!

First game in months and I fall asleep at the wheel. Dummy me.

I actually nearly checked in Sunday night when PMs were going out but wanted to wait until CF got their PM before posting and then.. not sure what happened. Packer game I guess

[Abe Sargent]

Abe and Zinto are the wolves. BOom! Nailed it.

You still need to get caught up

[mauchow]

You still need to get caught up

Defensive, nice!

[Chief Rum]

Okay, I finally found time to re-read the voting last note, and I'm more in line with DT's thinking, although I still view GE as suspect. He waited way too long to reveal, IMO, although i guess it worked out, since there were enough people around to save him.

I will go with the candidate from DT's no evidence list who has gotten votes.

UNVOTE DADDY TORGO

VOTE BRITROCK

[Abe Sargent]

Defensive, nice!

I was referring to Zinto, not me

[mauchow]

Okay, caught up.

So Zinto scanned good by the supposed GE seer, which at this point we'll go ahead and believe.

For now I will stick with the Abe vote.

[britrock88]

1 mauboy - CF (211)
1 DT - britrock (168)
4 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293)
1 Abe - mauboy (286)

Sigh...

[britrock88]

Let me do something for my own cause...

unvote DaddyTorgo

vote Abe Sargent

[britrock88]

1 mauboy - CF (211)
4 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293)
2 Abe - mauboy (286), britrock (297)

[Zinto]

Well I will make this a two horse race again...

Vote Abe

[JAG]

If you weren't facing execution Brit, who would you vote for and why?

[DaddyTorgo]

Okay where were we? I gotta catch up in the post count department, damn it!

First game in months and I fall asleep at the wheel. Dummy me.

I actually nearly checked in Sunday night when PMs were going out but wanted to wait until CF got their PM before posting and then.. not sure what happened. Packer game I guess

Note this post.

[mauchow]

Note this post.

Explaining that I completely forgot about the game? Got it!

[GoldenEagle]

VOTE ABE

I would like to see where the voting goes.

[britrock88]

1 mauboy - CF (211)
4 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293)
4 Abe - mauboy (286), britrock (297), Zinto (299), GE (303)

Working on my answer for ya, JAG.

[Autumn]

Still trying to get kids to bed. Glad to see you Mauboy.

[mauchow]

Still trying to get kids to bed. Glad to see you Mauboy.

So, our date tonight, we still on?

[britrock88]

If you weren't facing execution Brit, who would you vote for and why?

It's only a hunch, but I still feel most wary about DT. He based his initial D1 vote against Simbo on Simbo's "either DT's lying or he isn't" line. He also shot back at my vote on him today by voting me -- but in the very early going, far before self-preservation would have been the prevailing rationale.

Yeah, he's been active, which is nice, but he's stirred up a lot of doubt thus far. Wolves win by obfuscating things from the village. Yeah, he switched his vote at the deadline. What wolf wouldn't, if it was already obvious that he was in the thread and had a vote sitting on the revealed seer? Also remember that GE had to cajole DT into moving the vote. And all this talk about the wolves changing their NK in response to the reveal? Remember that in this game, only 1 wolf at any given time makes the call for the kill (to my knowledge). So it could easily be the case that a wolf was in the thread, but couldn't get a hold of the other wolf responsible for the kill order before deadline.

[Autumn]

Never mind, no I'm not.

[Autumn]

Good points, Brit, particularly about the kill order thing. Typically the other wolves would be allowed to change kill orders, but it does depend a lot on the ruleset, so that's a possibility.

[mauchow]

Never mind, no I'm not.

lol, you're not glad to see me? :(

[DaddyTorgo]

Explaining that I completely forgot about the game? Got it!

was thinking more the part where you linked yourself to CF in your post...only one reason you'd know somebody else who got a PM...

[mauchow]

CrimsonFox needs to make space in his inbox. Then I can sinish sending out the roles and the game can begin.

I hopped into the thread on this post -- I didn't want to post until it was official that CF got a pm so I bowed out for the night and never checked in again until tonight.

[GoldenEagle]

A really sick play of the wolves would be to keep me alive and have the village guess if I am or not.

We should get some night 1 answers tonight though.

[Autumn]

Yes, you should really do that wolves! That would show us!

[DaddyTorgo]

I hopped into the thread on this post -- I didn't want to post until it was official that CF got a pm so I bowed out for the night and never checked in again until tonight.


Aaaah - nevermind - I missed that post earlier in the thread obviously.:D

[Abe Sargent]

1 mauboy - CF (211)
4 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293)
4 Abe - mauboy (286), britrock (297), Zinto (299), GE (303)

Working on my answer for ya, JAG.

Ummm....okay.....

[britrock88]

Ha, sorry, Abe. I don't think there's a real beef on you. Mau had a vote, I moved to have someone within 2 votes of me, and Zinto and GE made a real race out of it.

[britrock88]

If I had my way, neither of us would go down tonight...

[DaddyTorgo]

Not liking all these votes on Abe...

[Zinto]

Who would you rather have votes DT? Clearly we cannot all pile on Brit or we will have no meaningful analysis of today.

[Zinto]

I will be on for tenish minutes and then it is off to work I go.

[JAG]

It's only a hunch, but I still feel most wary about DT. He based his initial D1 vote against Simbo on Simbo's "either DT's lying or he isn't" line. He also shot back at my vote on him today by voting me -- but in the very early going, far before self-preservation would have been the prevailing rationale.

Yeah, he's been active, which is nice, but he's stirred up a lot of doubt thus far. Wolves win by obfuscating things from the village. Yeah, he switched his vote at the deadline. What wolf wouldn't, if it was already obvious that he was in the thread and had a vote sitting on the revealed seer? Also remember that GE had to cajole DT into moving the vote. And all this talk about the wolves changing their NK in response to the reveal? Remember that in this game, only 1 wolf at any given time makes the call for the kill (to my knowledge). So it could easily be the case that a wolf was in the thread, but couldn't get a hold of the other wolf responsible for the kill order before deadline.

1. Most D1 votes are based on nothing so I don't take much from that.
2. He did vote you early, but his reason was for more than self-preservation, as you were in a group of suspects he had.
3. I think instead of creating doubt, DT's been trying to create order from chaos. I'm not sold on his theory, but I see the logic of what he's saying and can't say for sure he's wrong (he's right about me at least, so that's a good start).

I don't think it necessarily makes you a wolf that I don't agree with your opinion of DT, just trying to work out who to vote for. Not sure I really time or inclination to make a case for third party, so I'm probably going with you or Abe. On one hand I had some minor suspicion of you earlier today, Abe not so much though I'm pretty much just neutral on him. Out of time for now, so I'll go Brit for now and hopefully pop back in to see if anything comes up closer to deadline.

Vote Britrock88

[britrock88]

1 mauboy - CF (211)
5 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293), JAG (322)
4 Abe - mauboy (286), britrock (297), Zinto (299), GE (303)

[DaddyTorgo]

Who would you rather have votes DT? Clearly we cannot all pile on Brit or we will have no meaningful analysis of today.

Someone on my list of suspects. Hell...put two of them up against each other and we'd learn a whole hell of a lot - if we had two of them up and lynched one we'd be a long way towards uncovering the wolves.

[DaddyTorgo]

3. I think instead of creating doubt, DT's been trying to create order from chaos. I'm not sold on his theory, but I see the logic of what he's saying and can't say for sure he's wrong (he's right about me at least, so that's a good start).


Yes, this. Just trying to create some order out of this and give us a direction to go on that seems the most logical based on the evidence we have so far.

[mauchow]

We have two players that at this point in time have about the same chance of being a wolf in my opinion so I'm not sure why your top two suspects would be the best to put up compared to what we've got.

[Zinto]

I would be willing to move off of Abe since enough people do not seem to think that he is a wolf at this point but I need to make a quick decision.

[DaddyTorgo]

We have two players that at this point in time have about the same chance of being a wolf in my opinion so I'm not sure why your top two suspects would be the best to put up compared to what we've got.

Based on my analysis of last night.

[britrock88]

I would be willing to move off of Abe since enough people do not seem to think that he is a wolf at this point but I need to make a quick decision.

I know that the odds are higher that Abe's a wolf than I am...

[Abe Sargent]

I know that the odds are higher that Abe's a wolf than I am...

Lol

[britrock88]

So who do we go after, Abe?

[Abe Sargent]

So who do we go after, Abe?

I wish for self serving-ness I had a great answer, something really insightful ,but I don't have it, sorry

[mauchow]

Quiet deadline.

[britrock88]

I'd be happy to talk.

[britrock88]

DT, it might be worth knowing at least one of the two people you suspect (other than me).

[DaddyTorgo]

Quiet deadline.

typically means villager vs. villager...especially if it's close. not always though.

[mauchow]

Two from here according to DT:



brit
CR
CF
mau
autumn

[DaddyTorgo]

DT, it might be worth knowing at least one of the two people you suspect (other than me).

I named them earlier.

Autumn, you, CF, Chief Rum, and mauboy were the five

[britrock88]

Well, we have five in the thread, so perhaps enough to get some momentum going...

[mauchow]

unvote abe
vote bitrock

[britrock88]

unvote Abe Sargent

vote CrimsonFox

If I explained, it'd render this useless.

[mauchow]

I'll probably take hell for that, but it's all good!

Abe and britrock..wait I thought it was bitrock?

[britrock88]

as of 341:

1 mauboy - CF (211)
6 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293), JAG (322), mau (340)
2 Abe - Zinto (299), GE (303)
1 CF - britrock (341)

[Abe Sargent]

unvote Abe Sargent

vote CrimsonFox

If I explained, it'd render this useless.

.....

[GoldenEagle]

UNVOTE ABE

VOTE CRIMSONFOX

[GoldenEagle]

Oops

UNVOTE ABE

VOTE CRIMSONFOX

Let's see what happens.

[britrock88]

.....

Put it this way... either you, DT, or CF is getting lynched.

[Abe Sargent]

What the hell is going on?

[britrock88]

as of 347:

1 mauboy - CF (211)
6 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293), JAG (322), mau (340)
1 Abe - Zinto (299)
2 CF - britrock (341), GE (347)

[Abe Sargent]

It's like everyone is moving and shifting all of the sudden - makes me start doubting my views of who is what

[mauchow]

Super Man!

[britrock88]

for page 8 reference:

1 mauboy - CF (211)
6 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293), JAG (322), mau (340)
1 Abe - Zinto (299)
2 CF - britrock (341), GE (347)

[Abe Sargent]

Well hello, basically, everyone

[britrock88]

Hello to 5 of the 6 of you with votes on me.

[britrock88]

I am the duke.

[GoldenEagle]

I am just trying to get some movement. I think everyone piling on BR is a bad thing. It allowed the wolves to hide votes.

[mauchow]

If Brit is who he says he is then we should keep it on him and let him join the COT tomorrow, right? Or am I wrong?

[britrock88]

We best figure out someone else quickly, or else I'm taking a shot in the dark.

[JAG]

Mmkay.

Unvote Britrock88
Vote CrimsonFox

[DaddyTorgo]

If Brit is who he says he is then we should keep it on him and let him join the COT tomorrow, right? Or am I wrong?

Yes

[Abe Sargent]

If Brit is who he says he is then we should keep it on him and let him join the COT tomorrow, right? Or am I wrong?

I actually agree.

BR, let us know before you take a shot in the dark who you have as your top target, juts in case....

[JAG]

Don't feel great about a CF vote. Obviously if Brit is lying, the real duke should duke to him.

[DaddyTorgo]

Put in a duke order to somebody else brit

my preference would be someone on the list of names i put out there earlier obviously, as i think that really would help narrow stuff down

[britrock88]

1 mauboy - CF (211)
5 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293), mau (340)
1 Abe - Zinto (299)
3 CF - britrock (341), GE (347), JAG (359)

[britrock88]

Thinking on the order...

[JAG]

So here is where everyone's initial votes were yesterday (pre-reveal and DT vote swap to Simbo), assuming GE isn't lying for purposes of below colors for both he and Zinto:


2 Autumn - Abe Sargent (47), Zinto (78)
3 DaddyTorgo - Autumn (49), Chief Rum (84), GoldenEagle (122)
3 GoldenEagle - JAG (50), Simbo Klice (81), britrock88 (98)
2 Simbo Klice - CrimsonFox (71), DaddyTorgo (102),

For reference, again the green for GE + Zinto are assumptions, not true greens like Simbo. I also put Brit in green since a duke would be a horrible fake reveal.

[mauchow]

For reference, again the green for GE + Zinto are assumptions, not true greens like Simbo. I also put Brit in green since a duke would be a horrible fake reveal.

Yeah, a wolf would gain nothing by fake revealing as a duke. For that reason alone do we make a last minute switch?

[Abe Sargent]

Don't feel great about a CF vote. Obviously if Brit is lying, the real duke should duke to him.

What a bad call. Jus keep the vote on him. OIf hes the duke, he dukes iut. If he is lying, then the duke doesn;t have to waste the duke, so no they shouldn;t

[Autumn]

I agree, no reason to switch off Britrock. He dukes it, proves he's who he says, and no harm no foul.

[DaddyTorgo]

Yeah, a wolf would gain nothing by fake revealing as a duke. For that reason alone do we make a last minute switch?

Absolutely not. We let him use his duke powers and join the COT.

[JAG]

Unvote CF
Vote Britrock

[DaddyTorgo]

DEADLINE

[britrock88]

Okay, I put in for CF. JAG following me along and arguing against a CF vote pinged me.

[mauchow]

Got it. I just wanted to make sure as the deadline approached is all.

My refresh button got good work though.. missed these moments of WW history!

[DaddyTorgo]

Okay, I put in for CF. JAG following me along and arguing against a CF vote pinged me.

Cool. Hopefully we get some good info out of all this. IMO we're narrowing it down pretty well I think.

[Autumn]

Yes, it's not Werewolf until you're refreshing like crazy.

We're good at voting for roled players at least!

[JAG]

Disagree with what you guys are saying, no way any respecting wolf comes out with a fake duke reveal there, but whatever.

[britrock88]

Cool. Hopefully we get some good info out of all this. IMO we're narrowing it down pretty well I think.

I hope so, too... I went against my gut choice, which was you... :devil:

[Abe Sargent]

CF is not a bad shot,he's one of DT's five but i wish you had given people a chance, i don't want to Duke off the bodyguard ,you know?

[Chief Rum]

Our ability to root out roled villagers is extremely impressive.

[Abe Sargent]

Well nm, it doesn;t even look like he's ehere

[britrock88]

CF is not a bad shot,he's one of DT's five but i wish you had given people a chance, i don't want to Duke off the bodyguard ,you know?

That's why I started asking for ideas 30-45 minutes ago...

[DaddyTorgo]

I hope so, too... I went against my gut choice, which was you... :devil:

i'm vanilla villager, so all that would have done is shut up someone who is (hopefully) getting on the wolves' nerves

[DaddyTorgo]

That's why I started asking for ideas 30-45 minutes ago...

yep

[Abe Sargent]

That's why I started asking for ideas 30-45 minutes ago...

Good point, it becomes clear in hindsight.

[Autumn]

Disagree with what you guys are saying, no way any respecting wolf comes out with a fake duke reveal there, but whatever.

Well, sometimes wolves try to get too clever, or can't think fast on their feet. It's also possible he's the sorceror and just trying to confuse the issue. A duke who has used his powers though is fully cleared, and also no longer dangerous ;-) Dukings almost never go well.

[JAG]

Okay, I put in for CF. JAG following me along and arguing against a CF vote pinged me.

True, that is a classic wolf move.

[Abe Sargent]

Well JAG, suppose he didn;t duke, now you are forcing teh BG to choose who to block, a revelaed seer or a revealed duke instead of himself and the revealed seer.

[Abe Sargent]

Well, sometimes wolves try to get too clever, or can't think fast on their feet. It's also possible he's the sorceror and just trying to confuse the issue. A duke who has used his powers though is fully cleared, and also no longer dangerous ;-) Dukings almost never go well.

Precisely

[Abe Sargent]

Well, sometimes wolves try to get too clever, or can't think fast on their feet. It's also possible he's the sorceror and just trying to confuse the issue. A duke who has used his powers though is fully cleared, and also no longer dangerous ;-) Dukings almost never go well.

Clearly we thinkt he same on teh duke issue, and you won;t be isolated on that.

[Abe Sargent]

Did EF say he was going to be late tonight? I want to go back and play some more King's Bounty

[britrock88]

Well JAG, suppose he didn;t duke, now you are forcing teh BG to choose who to block, a revelaed seer or a revealed duke instead of himself and the revealed seer.

There's no good reason to protect me at this point other than belonging to the COT. I don't have a renewable power like the other roled players.

Well, sometimes wolves try to get too clever, or can't think fast on their feet. It's also possible he's the sorceror and just trying to confuse the issue. A duke who has used his powers though is fully cleared, and also no longer dangerous ;-) Dukings almost never go well.

Clearly we thinkt he same on teh duke issue, and you won;t be isolated on that.

Heh. I invite you two to be assigned the Duke and face a Day 2 lynch to see if you would act differently.

[britrock88]

Did EF say he was going to be late tonight? I want to go back and play some more King's Bounty

He did, yeah.

[Chief Rum]

Our ability to root out roled villagers is extremely impressive.

Presuming you're referring to EF, he said after the Day One deadline that he might not be here at deadline tonight, but would run the deadline as soon as he could.

[Autumn]

A mad rush off of Britrock is going to be just as random and possibly dangerous as Britrock duking, so I think it's fine. Or as fine as we can get.

[Abe Sargent]

There's no good reason to protect me at this point other than belonging to the COT. I don't have a renewable power like the other roled players.





Heh. I invite you two to be assigned the Duke and face a Day 2 lynch to see if you would act differently.

Right, i meant if we moved off of you post reveal, and then you said well, no need to Duke then, and didn;t use your power, then the BG has a difficult choice and the wolves have a tempting target.

[Chief Rum]

That was supposed to refer to Abe's looking for EF. And you guys figured it out anyway.

[Autumn]

I wasn't saying you should have acted differently, Britrock. I was responding to the comment about a wolf not claiming Duke.

[britrock88]

True, that is a classic wolf move.

Then again, I am terrible at voting and vote analysis... :(

[britrock88]

Eh, okay, understood now. Sorry to indict you two.

[Abe Sargent]

He did, yeah.

Alright, I'm loading up King's Bounty - the legend then. I'ma up in the mountains with the Dwarves after delivering the peace treaty and I just took some demon-y castle. I'll be back in an hour-ish.

In the meantime, let's hope that our good duke target is ensconced in crimson or with pointed ears, and barring that, at least not the BG if he's a villager.

[JAG]

Well JAG, suppose he didn;t duke, now you are forcing teh BG to choose who to block, a revelaed seer or a revealed duke instead of himself and the revealed seer.

If he's not the real duke, the real duke can reveal at any convenient point during the next day and remove that difficulty.

But Autumn's point is well-taken. Probably was the best move after all.

[Autumn]

My only qualm would be with you telling us who you're duking to, if you actually told the truth. I think the less info in the wolves hands the better. But I am kind of looking forward to CF showing up if you did duke to him. I bet he flips his lid.

[britrock88]

Well, I mentioned it at deadline (I think) for that reason.

[britrock88]

Also, to be fair in noting that JAG followed me to CF, GE did it, too. But JAG also moved back to me at the deadline...

[Autumn]

Well, I mentioned it at deadline (I think) for that reason.

Oh good. I wasn't really paying attention to when deadline was I guess.

[JAG]

If he's not the real duke, the real duke can reveal at any convenient point during the next day and remove that difficulty.

But Autumn's point is well-taken. Probably was the best move after all.

I take that back too Abe. I'm a bit embarrassed at my thought process here, not up to my standards.

[Autumn]

We're sending JAG back to the minors.

[britrock88]

The Narc-style voting table is ready, but I'll wait for the end-of-day actions to color a couple more names.

[Abe Sargent]

I take that back too Abe. I'm a bit embarrassed at my thought process here, not up to my standards.

's ok, it's a bit later than normal. :)

[britrock88]

Okay, going to bed.

time post voter votee #
22:57 159 Abe mau 1
23:21 168 brit DT 1
09:14 185 DT brit 1
09:26 188 Autumn CF 1
11:55 211 CF mau 2
17:40 265 Zinto Abe 1
17:58 267 Autumn xCF 0
brit 2
18:08 268 CR DT 2
19:18 279 Abe xmau 1
19:23 283 Abe brit 3
19:34 286 mau Abe 2
19:34 287 Zinto xAbe 1
19:53 293 CR xDT 1
brit 4
20:07 297 brit xDT 0
Abe 2
20:11 299 Zinto Abe 3
20:19 303 GE Abe 4
21:05 322 JAG brit 5
21:46 340 mau xAbe 3
brit 6
21:47 341 brit xAbe 2
CF 1
21:49 346 GE xAbe 1
CF 2
21:53 359 JAG xbrit 5
CF 3
22:00 360 JAG xCF 2
brit 6

[EagleFan]

Running late. It has been crazy since i started tonight. I will hope to make time in about a half hour to run the results.

[CrimsonFox]

back from work. Hey neat! a game of werewolf! One of these days, I'll have to play a game.

[CrimsonFox]

um.....LOL...okay....

[Abe Sargent]

night all

[EagleFan]

Time has come, you all decide. britrock must be the one. You gather and as you head towards him he tries to claim a role of duke but you ignore him. He must be lying.

Just then you hear. Wait, don't do it. Almost like a voice in your head. You stop to listen.

Not me, you must take out CrimsonFox.

You decide that you must listen to that voice in your head, you can worry about the potential psychological issues later but will listen to the voice THIS time.

You grab him but before you get a hold of him he lunges at GoldenEagle and with a hearty HO HO HO, MERRY F******** HOLIDAY!!!!! GoldenEagle is no more. Then you finish off CrimsonFox, white beard, red hat and all. Nol toys for you this year...

GoldenEagle was the seer role.

CrimsonFox was the Fat Man in Red.

[EagleFan]

You wake up the next morning and britrock can no longer be found. You search and search until you find the most gruesome of sights and you learn the definition of overkill. Someone had a major grudge against him.


britrock was the duke roll.

[EagleFan]

Sorry for the late results. I think it should start to slow down enough that I can grab a few moments earlier in the night as the week continues.

Unfortunately I decided to start this game the day after being told that I wasn't going to need to go on this trip only to find out several days later that I would be on this trip and I didn't want to see another game get cancelled.

[CrimsonFox]

HO HO HO!
That's THREE HO's!

[EagleFan]

That sounds like one hell of a present... ;)

[Autumn]

Wow, that's a mess. Good call, Britrock. Sucks to lose two roles, but worth it for a baddie, particularly with one block under our belt.

[EagleFan]

Presuming you're referring to EF, he said after the Day One deadline that he might not be here at deadline tonight, but would run the deadline as soon as he could.

Wow, this was confusing as I was reading backwards through the thread to see what I missed out on. ;)

[JAG]

Alright, one down and one to go. Nice work Britrock.

[JAG]

Day 1:

So here is where everyone's initial votes were yesterday (pre-reveal and DT vote swap to Simbo), assuming GE isn't lying for purposes of below colors for both he and Zinto:


2 Autumn - Abe Sargent (47), Zinto (78)
3 DaddyTorgo - Autumn (49), Chief Rum (84), GoldenEagle (122)
3 GoldenEagle - JAG (50), Simbo Klice (81), britrock88 (98)
2 Simbo Klice - CrimsonFox (71), DaddyTorgo (102),

Day 2:

for page 8 reference:

1 mauboy - CF (211)
6 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293), JAG (322), mau (340)
1 Abe - Zinto (299)
2 CF - britrock (341), GE (347)

[JAG]

Zinto's in green above due to GE's scan, but he could potentially be the sceptic too I suppose.

So at 1-1-1-1 DT-Brit-Mau-CF, CF put a second vote on Mau D2, which gives Mau a bit of a trust boost seeing as there was one sure villager he could've moved his vote to and one in DT that is leaning villager. Autumn had a vote on CF but then moved off and seemed to imply CF didn't seem like a wolf due to his reaction.

If I give Mau a bit of a pass due to CF's vote on him, from DT's list there would be CR and Autumn left.

[GoldenEagle]

Good luck village! Hopefully another game starts up after the holidays.

[JAG]

Something I just thought of (and I'm hesitant to put this out there after my thought process last night)...

Does it make sense for the BG to reveal who they protected today after tonight's deadline? The only wolf that should be left is an elf which the BG is able to slut if he protects them. So if the BG protects someone other than themselves and there is still a night kill, we can eliminate that player as a suspect. If the BG doesn't reveal who they protected and they die tonight, we won't be able to eliminate that player as a suspect.

I think the only way it wouldn't work is if there's more than one wolf left. I'm not sure how much value a protection is at this point since the numbers are 5-2 (assuming wolf + sceptic or wolf), so two wrong lynches potentially ends the game even if there is a block, though a block with a sceptic + wolf would leave us with a 2-2 situation which might still be winnable.

Now that I've thought through it, I'm not sure about it, but I'm going to put it out there anyway.

[JAG]

Oh right, we won't know for sure if the person the BG was guarding was attacked or was the attacker, so I guess that's not very helpful.

[Autumn]

Well, that would still work, JAG. Either the person is an elf, or they've been attacked. No actually, yo'ure right. It seems like that should help but it doesn't. With enough data of nights there might be a way to figure something out, but not from just one or two.

[Autumn]

Well it's still useful actually, if the BG guards someone and then there is an attack, that person is cleared, right?

[Autumn]

So yeah, the bodyguard can serve as a semi-seer. If there's no kill we won't know for sure what happened, but if there is one we get a scan.

[Autumn]

Zinto's in green above due to GE's scan, but he could potentially be the sceptic too I suppose.

So at 1-1-1-1 DT-Brit-Mau-CF, CF put a second vote on Mau D2, which gives Mau a bit of a trust boost seeing as there was one sure villager he could've moved his vote to and one in DT that is leaning villager. Autumn had a vote on CF but then moved off and seemed to imply CF didn't seem like a wolf due to his reaction.

If I give Mau a bit of a pass due to CF's vote on him, from DT's list there would be CR and Autumn left.

CF certainly didn't give me much to suspect him on as the day went on. I usually find him squirmy if he gets votes as a wolf. I know when I'm on a wolf team with him he panics as soon as he gets a vote.

I agree that CF's vote on Mauboy looks good, though CF was a voter and may have been thinking second level there.

[DaddyTorgo]

Chief Rum vs. Autumn...Chief Rum vs. Autumn...hmmm

[DaddyTorgo]

Oh yeah, and hooray for duking to CF! That worked out hella well britrock - nicely done!

[JAG]

So yeah, the bodyguard can serve as a semi-seer. If there's no kill we won't know for sure what happened, but if there is one we get a scan.

Right, unless there is more than one wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

Leaning towards Autumn, but part of me thinks that's just because he's been more active, so maybe I should lean towards CR.

[Autumn]

Right, unless there is more than one wolf.

If there's more than one wolf left, I quit. I think that would be severely imbalanced. I guess it's possible not all roles are in the game, and we have no skeptic, but htat's not the impression I get from the rules.

[Autumn]

I haven't examined who to vote for yet, so maybe this will become apparent, but I'm not sure how it got narrowed down to me and CR so quickly. Is this still based on DT's list of people in thread on night one? Or not in thread I guess.

[DaddyTorgo]

I haven't examined who to vote for yet, so maybe this will become apparent, but I'm not sure how it got narrowed down to me and CR so quickly. Is this still based on DT's list of people in thread on night one? Or not in thread I guess.

It's served well so far.

I mean don't get me wrong - I can see how it could certainly fail us, and I'm not trying to shut down discussion of other candidates, but it does seem to be one data point for us to look at, combined with the Narcizo-style voting record. In fact, if someone wants to cross-reference the two and see if any conclusions can be drawn, or look at just the Narcizo-style thing and suggest alternatives, I'm open to it.

[JAG]

I tend to agree with you Autumn that there's probably not another wolf and there is a sceptic, I just am not sure what happened N1.

I haven't gone back to look at the deadline yesterday, but we know whoever the other wolf is was around because Britrock was killed and CF wasn't around at deadline. The other wolf had to have put in that order.

[DaddyTorgo]

Autumn/Abe/Chief/JAG/Mau are the 5 uncleared, right?

-Of those, JAG and Mau made the late moves onto the duke to join the pile.
-Didn't brit say something right before deadline about CF & JAG. I need to go back and look, but that might actually make me feel better about JAG if I remember it right, because that would be an unlikely wolf play.

How do I personally rank those names (in descending order of trust)

Abe
JAG

Mau (based on JAG's analysis in #425)

Autumn/Chief Rum

Based on this and what JAG said, I think maybe I lean toward Autumn, as he moved his vote off of CF and implied he didn't seem like a wolf.

Just trying to organize my thoughts.

[DaddyTorgo]

I tend to agree with you Autumn that there's probably not another wolf and there is a sceptic, I just am not sure what happened N1.

I haven't gone back to look at the deadline yesterday, but we know whoever the other wolf is was around because Britrock was killed and CF wasn't around at deadline. The other wolf had to have put in that order.

This also leads me towards Autumn.

The evidence seems to be trending in that direction...

[Autumn]

I tend to agree with you Autumn that there's probably not another wolf and there is a sceptic, I just am not sure what happened N1.

I haven't gone back to look at the deadline yesterday, but we know whoever the other wolf is was around because Britrock was killed and CF wasn't around at deadline. The other wolf had to have put in that order.

Or CF was around and staying out of the thread. I'm not crazy about how we seem to be putting so much weight on this stuff this game. That's why I worry about paying much attention to DT's list. Maybe the wolves just screwed up the order in the last minutes. If DT, or anyone else on the list, was a wolf they'd know that and be happy to propagate that theory. It wouldn't be the first time a wolf used a screwup to lead the village away.

So I'm going to look at everyone, but I need to do some reading. I just wish we'd focus on posts and votes and vibe, not presence in thread.

[Autumn]

that's some reasoning there...

VOTE SIMBO KLICE



Reading back through day one. One thing I like about DT is that with his neck somewhat on the line, he went with Simbo, who wasn't really a candidate at that point. First level is he's not overly worried about his own neck. Could be second level, trying to make it look like he's not worried, but you know.

[DaddyTorgo]

Or CF was around and staying out of the thread. I'm not crazy about how we seem to be putting so much weight on this stuff this game. That's why I worry about paying much attention to DT's list. Maybe the wolves just screwed up the order in the last minutes. If DT, or anyone else on the list, was a wolf they'd know that and be happy to propagate that theory. It wouldn't be the first time a wolf used a screwup to lead the village away.

So I'm going to look at everyone, but I need to do some reading. I just wish we'd focus on posts and votes and vibe, not presence in thread.

We're not just focusing so much on that. It's useful in the case of last-minute reveals though, which unfortunately we've had a couple of this game, as we've picked out roled villagers on our two nights.

[Autumn]

And actually I like his moves the rest of that evening too. HE doesn't seem overly concerned with his safety.

Unfortunately there's not much to read on anyone else who's still up for suspicion in that evening.

[Autumn]

I got through page 5. But I do actually have to work. Leaving this here so I remember where to pick up.

[Abe Sargent]

Mornign all.


Look like we did well yesterday!!! Let me get caught up on everything else, but so far, this game has been pretty smooth sailing for us. Let's find the Elf and wrap thi thang up!

[Abe Sargent]

Alright, he's been a bit quieter than usual, he's on DT's short list, which has worked so far, so let's



Vote Chief Rum

[britrock88]

The carnage! :popcorn:

Oh, wait, I was part of it... Good luck, believers!

[Abe Sargent]

CR is here, can't wait to hear from you

[Chief Rum]

Okay, with one wolf left (likely), I think I have too much information to keep quiet any longer.

I am the Selfless Believer (BG).

Last night, I protected GE. Unfortunately, CF brutaled to GE, and of course, that traditionally sidesteps BG protection (since it is technically a day action).

Had I known that, of course, I would have protected britrock.

But my role and what happened last night isn't even the most important bit of information I have. On Night One, I did not submit a protection order.

Yet no one died.

I worked a double Monday night, and I was rushing out the door in between jobs when I put in my Day One vote. I totally spaced on a protection order (I had been thinking it was a two deadline game, bad Chief, bad).

Lots of food for thought there. It's the primary reason I had doubts on GE's reveal. I didn't know what to make of it.

Anyway, there you go.

[Autumn]

Heading out to class, I'll be gone until late afternoon. Big reveal from Chief, I'll have to chew it over when I get back.

[Abe Sargent]

I take that back too Abe. I'm a bit embarrassed at my thought process here, not up to my standards.

Okay, with one wolf left (likely), I think I have too much information to keep quiet any longer.

I am the Selfless Believer (BG).

Last night, I protected GE. Unfortunately, CF brutaled to GE, and of course, that traditionally sidesteps BG protection (since it is technically a day action).

Had I known that, of course, I would have protected britrock.

But my role and what happened last night isn't even the most important bit of information I have. On Night One, I did not submit a protection order.

Yet no one died.

I worked a double Monday night, and I was rushing out the door in between jobs when I put in my Day One vote. I totally spaced on a protection order (I had been thinking it was a two deadline game, bad Chief, bad).

Lots of food for thought there. It's the primary reason I had doubts on GE's reveal. I didn't know what to make of it.

Anyway, there you go.



You are such a liar! I don't even understand why you would make this bad story up this soon!

Folks, I am the Selfless Believer. I am the bg.


On Night one, i intentionally decided to stay on myself, to game the wolves, figuring that even if one was on, they would go elsewhere. It wsa a gamble, I know, but I've won before with that gamble, and I haven;t played it in a while. I stopped bad guy, but I didn;t get any more info.

Last night, I moved to block the seer, but he was duked and thus had no target.


I bought DT's claim that the wolves couldn;t have been on at the time of the lynch N1 because the attack came on me, and why would they do that if the seer had been exposed? So the wolves could not have been on. In fact, we were right about CF.

And now I can see that CR is the other wolf. Must have been desperate to have fake revealed so early and feeling in a circle of two, so pushing to get the credit for the first revealed.


Man, that's not even a good lie about "forgetting to put in an order"


Anyway, this is why i was so cautious last night when britrock went to duke, becuase I was hoping he would not duke me, and kill a role. He mentioned I was a finalist, so i pushed.

[JAG]

Well, ok then. A double reveal and somehow mauboy is not involved.

[JAG]

The question is, do we have a sceptic or wolf fake reveal? You would think it would have to be the sceptic because a wolf fake reveal would let the BG get a guaranteed block in by guarding the fake revealer.

[JAG]

So if we believe CR's story, the only explanation is that the wolves forgot to submit a kill order.

[JAG]

I actually agree.

BR, let us know before you take a shot in the dark who you have as your top target, juts in case....

CF is not a bad shot,he's one of DT's five but i wish you had given people a chance, i don't want to Duke off the bodyguard ,you know?

I think Abe's story is a lot more believable based on his posts around deadline. Then I would question, why did the wolves come after Abe D1?

[JAG]

Hmm, curious questions upon re-readign the rules.

Questions for EagleFan:

1. Does the Fat Man have PM rights with his Elves?
2. Do we know if the Fat Man when he chooses a target and the Elf doing the killing, if he does it all himself or does the Elf in question have to submit a kill order?
3. Silly question, but do the Fat Man and Elves who the others are?
4. Do either of them know who the Sceptic is?
5. What happens if the Sceptic is attacked?
6. The rules state that the Sceptic "will find out who the evil team is". Is this information given to the Sceptic at the start of the game or does he learn it sometime during the course of the game, maybe at a certain time/day, or under certain conditions?

This post makes a good bit of sense from a sceptic's point of view (information that would be helpful to know as a sceptic).

[Chief Rum]

This post makes a good bit of sense from a sceptic's point of view (information that would be helpful to know as a sceptic).

It seems to me there are questions in there a Skeptic would know, don't you think?

[Chief Rum]

I'm going to guess Abe is the Skeptic. I doubt the last remaining wolf would do this at this point, since even if Abe as a wolf got me lynched, when I turned up as the BG tonight, he would be lynched tomorrow, game over.

[JAG]

Going to wait to hear from others before saying more.

[Abe Sargent]

CR does brin up a good point, he might be the Skeptic trying to swing the game back in his favor. I was so caught up on finding a wolf that I forget that CR might jus tbe the skeptic trying to sow some chaos.

[Chief Rum]

CR does brin up a good point, he might be the Skeptic trying to swing the game back in his favor. I was so caught up on finding a wolf that I forget that CR might jus tbe the skeptic trying to sow some chaos.

Actually, JAG said he thought my questions could be from a Sceptic. I pointed out as the Sceptic, I would not have needed to ask a lot of those questions.

My point was that you're probably the Sceptic and not the last remaining wolf.

[Abe Sargent]

Just one more thing to say and then I have to go and finish one of my textbooks for this semester -

I almost had the awesome double block in back to back nights and I was very disappointed, not only that our seer was slain, but that prevented me from blocking that night and stopping them. I was going to jump up and down if I had gotten a double block in the first two nights.

[DaddyTorgo]

Okay - so one of Abe or CR are the skeptic.

Makes no sense for the wolf to fake reveal at this point.

So I propose that we ignore the two of them and focus on the other parties who we found interesting, because if we find the wolf first it's game over, and if not we know we have the two of them narrowed down. That being said, I lean slightly more towards trusting Abe, as his story seems more believeable (although we all know CR and Monday deadlines).

Based on JAG's analysis and the slight bump he gives to Mau to elevate him out of the group at the bottom...

VOTE AUTUMN

[Chief Rum]

I think whatever happened last night will turn out to be one of the more important and telling things to happen in the game. But we won't know what that is for sure without more days and votes and kills happening, and by then it might be too late.

I posted this above yesterday afternoon.

This was in reference to the fact I alone knew, that I had not submitted a BG kill and yet no one died.

[Chief Rum]

On Night one, i intentionally decided to stay on myself, to game the wolves, figuring that even if one was on, they would go elsewhere. It wsa a gamble, I know, but I've won before with that gamble, and I haven;t played it in a while. I stopped bad guy, but I didn;t get any more info.

Wait, so not only did you protect yourself on Night One instead of GE, but you were targeted and got a block--on yourself? Not GE?

[DaddyTorgo]

Wait, so not only did you protect yourself on Night One instead of GE, but you were targeted and got a block--on yourself? Not GE?

Very good point. Perhaps Chief Rum has some legs to his reveal indeed.

[DaddyTorgo]

Yeah...liking CR's story more. But as I said, that almost doesn't matter at this point - we put those 2 in a "side pocket" and deal with them later if need be.

JAG - what are your thoughts? I liked your analysis earlier.

[JAG]

What's your assessment of the remaining players CR?

[Chief Rum]

What's your assessment of the remaining players CR?

Gonna have to get back to you after my call here and then lunch.

But I have found a lot of traction in DT's original post where he laid out the good, presumed good and unknowns. So that will play into it.

Also, I need to look at the voting with new eyes, knowing who is what (except for the last wolf). I am sure that will have an effect too.

[JAG]

Yeah...liking CR's story more. But as I said, that almost doesn't matter at this point - we put those 2 in a "side pocket" and deal with them later if need be.

JAG - what are your thoughts? I liked your analysis earlier.

Don't really have the time to put out a big think / write at the moment and I'd like to hear what CR, Abe, and Autumn have to say on their suspects.

[mauchow]

Interesting turn of events for certain.

I don't believe Abe to be the BG so that is easy for me.

Then of course that leaves the others that aren't cleared minus me since I know I'm Vanilla Villager.

[DaddyTorgo]

Don't really have the time to put out a big think / write at the moment and I'd like to hear what CR, Abe, and Autumn have to say on their suspects.

Sounds good.

[mauchow]

Eh, re-reading it over I guess I'm not sure that Abe isn't the BG but I guess it doesn't really matter since one of them is likely the sceptic so they'll count for a village win regardless. We'll let the wolves do the dirty work and guess between the two of them which is the BG if they want to try killing one of them off.

[Abe Sargent]

Sorry, just got a new externam HD in teh mail and had to spend the lsat few hours scanning it for issues. Now I'm abou tto start moving stuff there ad naeuseum

[Abe Sargent]

Doesn't look like there's been a lot of movement over the last few hours while I was away reading and working on this. I'll be back later after a few more hours to help us suss things out better.

[Chief Rum]

JAG
DaddyTorgo
Zinto
Abe Sargent
Autumn
Chief Rum
mauboy1

The above are the remaining players in the game. The key is to find the last wolf. Let's do some figuring.

Zinto has been scanned by the known seer and confirmed good.

Abe and I are in a tussle over the BG spot. Even if you don't believe me on that, we all seem to agree neither of us are the last wolf.

That leaves four possibilities for wolf: DT, JAG, Autumn and mauboy1.

At this point, let me present my theory on what happened Monday night. You'll have to accept my assertion that I am the BG and did not submit a BG protection that night.

There was no BG block, but no kill. How could this happen? I can only think of three ways:

1) No kill order was submitted.
2) The kill target was dead
3) The kill target was the Sceptic.

I am throwing out #1. Crimson Fox was around on Day One and I do not believe someone as active as he is would leave for work for the night without submitting a kill order. That leaves #2 or #3. In the case of #2, Simbo Klice was lynched, so he would have had to be the kill target for there not to be a kill. This is possible--CF actually voted for Simbo Klice. #3 is possible, but I consider it unlikely, since I believe Abe is the Sceptic. I don't think Abe the wolf would make the counter-reveal play he is doing now.

So I think Scenario #2 is by far the likeliest reason for no Night One kill. CF was at work, so he could not change his kill order. So that means the other wolf needed to be present to change that order when GE's reveal put the lynch target on Simbo Klice, in order for a kill to happen.

Since a kill didn't happen, I presume the wolf wasn't present for GE's reveal and the turn on Simbo.

That brings us back to our four: DT, JAG, Autumn and mauboy1.

We know DT and JAG were around. They changed their votes to save GE. They are not the last wolf.

That leaves Autumn and mauboy1 as the possible last wolf.

mauboy1 was not around at all for Day One. Autumn as, but stepped out during the key revelation by GE, by his own admission. So both were not around, and either could be the last wolf.

I am leaning toward Autumn being the last wolf. Why? Because the Sceptic (Abe) voted for Autumn on Day One. He in fact opened up all voting by voting Autumn. It has been a tactic in the past for the cultist role to vote a wolf to try to tip off the wolves to who he is. Abe kept his vote on Autumn all day, until finally switching to Simbo Klice in the rush to save GE.

So I believe the last wolf is Autumn.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Autumn]

Catching up.

[Autumn]

Chief, why do you think #3 is a possibility? Sorceror roles aren't immune to kills typically.

[Autumn]

I don't think we can necessarily say we're dealing with BG/Skeptic reveal. If Abe is the fake, yes, he has no reason to come out as wolf. But if Chief is the fake, he seemed a likely enough target that a wolf might reveal. Not too likely, but possible.

[Autumn]

That said, Chief's story doesn't seem as plausible as Abe's, if I compare them, but I find the tone of Chief's more believable. First reveal is typically the true one, that early in the day.

[Autumn]

THe thing is, if Abe is faking the reveal, why not say he protected GE night 1? That's a simpler, more believable lie.

[Zinto]

Well, interesting that we have a reveal and a counter reveal. I am leaning towards Abe being the BG. I already assumed that at some point there was going to be a counter reveal on the seer and Chief being suspicious of GE's reveal would have allowed him to fake reveal and point to posts where he questioned GE.

[Zinto]

Is it typical in games for the sorcerer to turn when he is night killed? I am not sure I have played in a game where that has been the case.

[Autumn]

I can't argue much with the analysis I'm seeing. I guess therefore I will vote Mau, becuase outside of Chief he seems the most likely other candidate. I myself would not exclude JAG and DT from the voting. I think it's very dangerous to make assumptions about what the wolves did or would do. I will not be shocked if it turns out DT is a wolf who flubbed changing the kill order and has been trying to turn that into protection ever since.

In my defense all I can say is I'm playing my regular game. I don't think a wolf puts CF into the vote yesterday in a game this small. Yesterday's results show why. Even though I ended up switching, it put CF in the conversation. A wolf with this many villagers to choose from picks one of them there.

[Autumn]

I guess that my list of who I would be likely to vote, from most to least likely is this:

mauboy1
DaddyTorgo
JAG
Chief Rum
Abe Sargent
Zinto

I'll vote Mau because I don't think peple sound willing to vote any of the night 1 residents. I put Abe near the bottom because I think if he's not the BG he's the Skeptic. Chief if he's not the BG could possibly be a wolf so I put him before that.

<b>VOTE MAUBOY1</b>

[mauchow]

This isn't defensive even though it looks like it.

vote autumn

I like chief's reasoning even if it leaves me as one of the two he'd vote for.

[DaddyTorgo]

This isn't defensive even though it looks like it.

vote autumn

I like chief's reasoning even if it leaves me as one of the two he'd vote for.

I like your last line on this...makes me feel better about you.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, why do you think #3 is a possibility? Sorceror roles aren't immune to kills typically.

Oh, I didn't respond to this. Isn't the Sceptic as likely to be a cultist as a sorcerer? We're not really told what happens when the Sceptic is attacked by the wolves, so I would leave open the possibility of a conversion there, instead of a kill.

But in any case, I don't really think that has happened.

[Autumn]

Oh, I didn't respond to this. Isn't the Sceptic as likely to be a cultist as a sorcerer? We're not really told what happens when the Sceptic is attacked by the wolves, so I would leave open the possibility of a conversion there, instead of a kill.

But in any case, I don't really think that has happened.

Oh, I see. Yeah, I don't think that's likely, but it's a possibility.

[Autumn]

Getting the kids into bed and hoping to watch a movie with my wife, so I won't be on much. I'll try to grab the iPad nad keep an eye on things.

[Autumn]

Is it typical in games for the sorcerer to turn when he is night killed? I am not sure I have played in a game where that has been the case.

Not typical I would say. Definitely is a possibility in some rulesets but I would expect it to be laid out more clearly if so.

[Autumn]

Looks like I've got the majority of votes. I don't think there's a strong cause for either Mauboy or I, so not much I can do to argue the case. I'd just ask people to consider why they're picking me over him. Just because it's the prevailing opinion doesn't mean it's right. I cast an early vote on a wolf in an 11 person game. I'd say that's at least as good evidence in my favor than anything Mau has. But that's about all I can really point to, other than I hope generally useful play.

[Zinto]

Sorry guys it has been a long day. So, in Chief's BG scenario I cannot see Autumn falling asleep at the wheel and not sending in an order to get a kill. I can see why people would think that Mau is the wolf in Chief's scenario since I believe CF said he worked late and was not around. Mau was also not around so it is conceivable they did not send in a kill order.

[Zinto]

I don't see CF putting an early vote on Mau yesterday if Mau is a wolf since Mau was an easy place to stick a vote and could have been easily lynched if he had not shown up.

[Autumn]

I don't see CF putting an early vote on Mau yesterday if Mau is a wolf since Mau was an easy place to stick a vote and could have been easily lynched if he had not shown up.

I find it the opposite. I think these days the tendency is to not lynch someone if they haven't checked in. He'd get a lot of votes, but they'd probably move before deadline.

[JAG]

Sorry I haven't been too active today. Reading along and thinking, but haven't had the time to come to a firm conclusion. I have to put the kids down and then I'll be back to write some stuff and make a decision.

[JAG]

I'm here and re-reading the thread before posting some thoughts.