Werewolf CLIX- Haunted Hotel

[Chief Rum]

Even as the cultist, Narc is gonna trip out.

Actually, considering he presumeably won't be able to change his vote tomorrow evening, I will be curious to see where his vote ends up.

[EagleFan]

The key word in his statement was "my chances"; not the "village's chance" but "my chance". The words of a lone remaining wolf usually.

Willing to listen as it wasa ballsy move at least.

[murrayyyyy]

oh and I guess my only defense is I would have put the vote on Lathum yesterday instead of moving my vote to Danny for the tie.

[murrayyyyy]

The key word in his statement was "my chances"; not the "village's chance" but "my chance". The words of a lone remaining wolf usually.

Willing to listen as it wasa ballsy move at least.

Or the words of someone who doesn't last this long. Poor word choice maybe but I want to win a game.

[Chief Rum]

There are a lot of permutations to this. I'm going to have to think it over some.

I am convinced the last wolf is either brit or murrayyyyy, given the latest results.

[EagleFan]

Even as the cultist, Narc is gonna trip out.

Actually, considering he presumeably won't be able to change his vote tomorrow evening, I will be curious to see where his vote ends up.

Not sure how much weight we can put on his vote. He could either mess with our heads and vote the wolf thinking that we won't follow him or pick a random villager.

Or I guess not vote at all and leave us all in the dark.

[EagleFan]

Or the words of someone who doesn't last this long. Poor word choice maybe but I want to win a game.

Like I said, willing to listen.

Going offline for a while; to continue to deal with this adware virus issue.

[britrock88]

and now I feel bad for changing the vote because Brit has gone silent.

I'm not staying silent. Not by any stretch of the imagination! :)

[britrock88]

But I might wait a little longer to come back to the thread and start trying to make sense of today.

[EagleFan]

Any suggestions. Hearing advertisements playing in the background. Norton finds nothing. Running an AVG scan now.

[PackerFanatic]

Apologies for my lack of...well, anything this game, village. Good luck!

[murrayyyyy]

Any suggestions. Hearing advertisements playing in the background. Norton finds nothing. Running an AVG scan now.

closed all the web connections? I had the same thing happen the other day and I shut down chrome and it went away. Was watching firstrow for the soccer at work the other day.

[EagleFan]

Closed, rebooted, powered completely off for a while and restarted. Keeps coming back. Let the last scan close it down last night so I will see if it was successful when I get home. It's getting aannoying.

[Chief Rum]

Clearly, Narc decided to wait before voting. It's also possible he won't choose to vote, but in the end, I doubt it. He knows a vote by him is a vote helping the wolf, so why would he withhold it. But he will want to know what we will do.

[murrayyyyy]

Alright, looking back at it I know I'll get some funny looks for this vote but when I go back at looking down the stretch last night Brit was the only one who wanted the tie to be forced and had the weakest case. Maybe I should have went this way last night but I've been convinced after a night of thinking about everyone's reactions down the stretch.

vote britrock

[Chief Rum]

I'm looking at scenarios here, trying to bring clarity to last night's actions.

I think there are three distinct decision points to analyze.

First off, I think we should agree on a timeline. This is nothing but a restating of what happened, but I am hoping it puts everything from last night into a tighter perspective.

I am accepting two facts--we have just one remaining ghost, and Narc is the cultist. Of course, we can also accept that PF was a villager.

Here is the timeline.

1 hour to deadline-- EF is leading the lynch over Narc, 3-2-1 (the 1 is EF's vote on me, and the two on Narc were Narc himself and PF villager). There is little apparent movement from the group to change this. SCENARIO ONE

20 mins to deadline-- I question that we're making the right decision lynching EF and make a case for britrock. After some discussion, murrayyyyy and EF switch with me to britrock. britrock leads the lynch now, 3-2-1, with me, EF and murrayyyyy on brit and brit on me at 1 (and Narc and PF remain the same at 2). SCENARIO TWO

1 min to deadline-- murrayyyyy switches to me at the last second, forcing a 2-2-2 tie between me, brit and Narc, with unknown results to come. SCENARIO THREE

What we need to ask ourselves is who benefits from what scenario.

[murrayyyyy]

My only solid defense has to be when I moved my vote to Danny from Lathum. If I was a ghost I would have left it on Lathum and not forced a tie. I think with the 3 way tie happening and everyone not dying, the ghost is in the final two players(not Narc) so it's not me or EF.

[EagleFan]

Three of us need to be certain of which way to vote. That way Narc and the remaining wolf can't screw us at deadline. (though I still doubt that Narc would wake up just to do that, so that would leave just the remaining wolf)

[Chief Rum]

Before we look closely at the decisions in those scenarios, I determined there were seven possible results from yesterday's lynch (throwing out a weird tie dynamic, which we can't possibly gameplan for). There were three straight lynch results, and four reasonable "tie" results.

Technically, there is an eighth result, which I will take a look at, but since it didn't happen, I think the hypothetical eighth result can only be used to reflect on EF's allegiance. More on that later...

The three basic result possibilities, pretty simple:

Result A: A villager is lynched
Result B: The cultist is lynched
Result C: The ghost is lynched.

The above three and the other "EF result" which didn't happen (EF tie with Narc) were the only expected results to consider through the FIRST SCENARIO.

After we shifted things around, and got to the potential for a three way tie, here are the four possible results, two common tie dynamics with two lynch candidate groups.

Result D (cultist/villager/villager with all dying)

Result E (cultist/villager/villager with all living)

Result F (cultist/villager/ghost with all dying)

Result G (cultist/villager/ghost with all living)

Here is what would happen with each of these results. Before the lynch, we were 4 V, 1 C and 1 G (4-1-1):

RESULT A Villager dies to make it 3-1-1. NK takes out another villager. 2-1-1. This becomes village vs ghost/cultist, not the easiest arrangement for the ghost but definitely not bad.

RESULT B The cultist dies to make it 4-1. NK takes out a villager. 3-1. Three villagers versus one ghost. This isn't as bad spot for the ghost, but short of being dead, this is the worst result to get out of the lynch if you're the ghost.

RESULT C The ghost dies. Game over. Obviously, the ghost will do whatever he can to avoid this.

RESULT D The cultist and two villagers die. This makes it 2-1. Nightkill villager. 1-1. Ball game, ghost wins. Obviously, this is highly desirable result for the ghost.

RESULT E/G: I combined the "living ties" because the end result is the same. This is, of course, exactly what happened and is our current situation. We came out of the lynch at 4-1-1, and PF got lynched, so now it's 3-1-1, three villagers, the cultist and the ghost.

RESULT F: The cultist, a villager and the ghost dies. Game over, again. The wolf will want to avoid this.

Now, when the ghost had to consider Result Possibilities D thru G (the ties), he would have known it was either D and E, or F and G, since he knew if the two non-cultists were two villagers or two wolves.

So if me and brit and both villagers (Results D/E), the ghost either gets the automatic win, or at worst gets today's scenario. That is highly desirable.

If either brit or I am a ghost (Results F/G), the ghost in choosing a tie is facing either a definite loss or today's scenario. Today becomes the best case scenario for Results F & G, while it becomes the worst for Results D & E.

[britrock88]

I may be behind the posts at the bottom of the page, but I'll react as I catch up.

I'm looking at scenarios here, trying to bring clarity to last night's actions.

I think there are three distinct decision points to analyze.

First off, I think we should agree on a timeline. This is nothing but a restating of what happened, but I am hoping it puts everything from last night into a tighter perspective.

I am accepting two facts--we have just one remaining ghost, and Narc is the cultist. Of course, we can also accept that PF was a villager.

Here is the timeline.

1 hour to deadline-- EF is leading the lynch over Narc, 3-2-1 (the 1 is EF's vote on me, and the two on Narc were Narc himself and PF villager). There is little apparent movement from the group to change this. SCENARIO ONE

20 mins to deadline-- I question that we're making the right decision lynching EF and make a case for britrock. After some discussion, murrayyyyy and EF switch with me to britrock. britrock leads the lynch now, 3-2-1, with me, EF and murrayyyyy on brit and brit on me at 1 (and Narc and PF remain the same at 2). SCENARIO TWO

1 min to deadline-- murrayyyyy switches to me at the last second, forcing a 2-2-2 tie between me, brit and Narc, with unknown results to come. SCENARIO THREE

What we need to ask ourselves is who benefits from what scenario.

EF benefits from the change from 1 to 2, I benefit from the change from 2 to 3. That's fairly straightforward. The wolves also benefit from the tie in that we gave up our opportunity for a second lynch chance.

[britrock88]

My only solid defense has to be when I moved my vote to Danny from Lathum. If I was a ghost I would have left it on Lathum and not forced a tie. I think with the 3 way tie happening and everyone not dying, the ghost is in the final two players(not Narc) so it's not me or EF.

Very villagerish, unless you were hoping for a decent tiebreak (like last night?) or (as a ghost) wanted to put yourself in a favorable position down the stretch.

[britrock88]

Result-oriented analysis

This is much more thought-provoking than I would have expected.

[britrock88]

Now trying to figure out if I should feel bad for trying to avoid Result A, allowing murra5y the opportunity to create a D-G result that he might have seen coming.

[murrayyyyy]

If either brit or I am a ghost (Results F/G), the ghost in choosing a tie is facing either a definite loss or today's scenario. Today becomes the best case scenario for Results F & G, while it becomes the worst for Results D & E.

I was with you until the end, so E/G are the same scenario and are the best and worst scenario?

[Chief Rum]

We'll look at the tie results again when we analyze Scnearios 2 & 3. For now, let's stick to Scenario One.

In Scenario One, EF is likely to die with the status quo.

If EF is a villager, we have Result A (villager is lynched). This would result in two villagers versus the ghost/cultist today.

If EF is the ghost, we have Result C (ghost lynched, game over).

We can throw out the possibility of Result B (cultist lynched) because Narc wasn't going to be lynched unless with a tie result.

Which brings me to my fourth possibility--EF forcing the tie result, himself versus Narc. If everyone dies and EF is a villager, it becomes two villagers versus one ghost today. That is better than if EF is a ghost, though, and everyone dies, since the game would have ended. And if everyone lived, we would have today's scenario, three villagers versus the cultist/ghost.

EF did NOT force the tie. What does this mean?

If EF is a villager, he had the choice of allowing himself to be lynched alone for sure, which would have resulted in two villagers versus the wolf/cultist, or forcing the tie with Narc, which could save them both or kill them both. If it save them both, we have three villagers versus the ghost/cultist, if it kills them both, we have two villagers versus one ghost.

Both of the tie scenarios are better for the village than EF going down alone. So I think EF as a villager would have eventually realized this and switched his vote to Narc and force the tie.

If EF was a ghost, he had his back against the wall. He gets lynched, it's game over. He absolutely switches to forcing the tie and prays for a "everyone lives" situation.

The point is, EF would have switched his vote to Narc eventually and forced the tie, whether he is a ghost or a villager. Which means we really can't tell anything from his actions prior to my re-thinking (unfortunately).

But we can tell something from MY actions.

If EF is a ghost, the rest of us our villagers. So if you accept that scenario, you have to assume I am a villager.

If EF is a villager, one of us is a ghost. What result is preferable to the ghost? Status quo. He wants EF the villager to be lynched, because that's the best scenario for the ghost. If EF switches to force the tie, it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing either (still scenarios the ghost can work with), but there would be no compelling reason for a ghost to "save EF".

So basically in both scenarios, I have to be a villager. If EF is a ghost, I am obviously a villager. And if EF is a villager, it makes no sense for me as a ghost to "re-think" the EF lynch decision 20 minutes to deadline. EF's lynch is my preferred result as a ghost.

My point is, and while I'll admit it's a self-serving one, I am hoping that my actions last night essentially clear me as a ghost, and we can concentrate on the rest of the village for a possible ghost.

[britrock88]

Thinking about yesterday...

I'll admit that I don't know who the last ghost is. But I was and am convinced that lynching Narc (PF, murra5y, and EF had put votes on him overnight) was the wrong way to go. So I tried to build momentum to vote for others.

I started with EF. Nobody followed onto EF, but murra5y moved his vote to CR. CR was the lone voting holdout at this point, and he obviously wasn't going to vote himself into a 3-3 tie with Narc, so when he chose EF, I saw fit to follow (to try to draw EF off Narc). Murra5y switched soon after I did, and EF jumped off Narc in turn, making a case for CR as the other wolf. Then I'm out of the thread for a couple hours. 20 minutes before deadline, CR moves to me and makes a case as to why I'm the other wolf. To break the paragraph, I'll quote the one part of CR's analysis I take issue with:

Then when Lathum got lynched D3, brit didn't push Danny up to 3 until I pushed Lathum up to 4. And that was with Danny with a vote switch in his back pocket. Again, no risk.

I didn't move my vote until late because I was out of the thread. I think/hope that posts from earlier on D3 show my suspicion of Narc's reveal, along with bullet and Lathum. I think my vote hung on Narc for a few hours before I moved to Danny.

So CR's move to me made it Narc 2 - EF 2 - CR 1 - brit 1. I get in the thread 10 minutes before deadline, see CR's rationale, and don't like it at all. So I move my vote from EF back to CR. Narc 2 - CR 2 - EF 1 - brit 1. Then, unfortunately, EF and murra5y follow CR's lead 5 minutes before deadline, making it brit 3 - Narc 2 - CR 1.

Perhaps, at this point, I should have given myself up, leaving you 3 to fight amongst yourselves today when it would have turned up that I'm a villager. But talk of the tie comes up, and murra5y moves to CR at the deadline to knot us up where we finished.

What to take from all this? Great question...

[britrock88]

I think at this point, I'm most interested in EF's opinion about the 3 of us.

CR and I seem naturally opposing forces, but we could be mistaking each other; I wonder, though, that CR's recent emergence as a village thought leader is him making his last stand.

And then there's murra5y, who seems to be a vote-follower, and who made the possibly incriminatory remarks about last night's tie, but who has had the most exculpatory voting record in past days.

[Chief Rum]

I was with you until the end, so E/G are the same scenario and are the best and worst scenario?

Well, same result. In both cases, everyone lives, regardless of whether brit/I are villagers (Result E) or one of us is a ghost (Result G).

So regardless of our allegiances, Results E and G end up the same, three villagers versus the cultist and ghost.

For the ghost, these results are mutually exclusive. He knows who he is. We don't. So the ghost knows if a "living tie" was Result E or Result G.

If it was Result E (brit and I are villagers), then the ghost is bummed because Result D didn't happen (he would ahve won), but he's not too upset. If it was Result G (brit or I==ghost), then the ghost is pretty thrilled with living, since the game would have ended if the tie resulted in death for all.

[Chief Rum]

Thinking about yesterday...

I'll admit that I don't know who the last ghost is. But I was and am convinced that lynching Narc (PF, murra5y, and EF had put votes on him overnight) was the wrong way to go. So I tried to build momentum to vote for others.

I started with EF. Nobody followed onto EF, but murra5y moved his vote to CR. CR was the lone voting holdout at this point, and he obviously wasn't going to vote himself into a 3-3 tie with Narc, so when he chose EF, I saw fit to follow (to try to draw EF off Narc). Murra5y switched soon after I did, and EF jumped off Narc in turn, making a case for CR as the other wolf. Then I'm out of the thread for a couple hours. 20 minutes before deadline, CR moves to me and makes a case as to why I'm the other wolf. To break the paragraph, I'll quote the one part of CR's analysis I take issue with:



I didn't move my vote until late because I was out of the thread. I think/hope that posts from earlier on D3 show my suspicion of Narc's reveal, along with bullet and Lathum. I think my vote hung on Narc for a few hours before I moved to Danny.

So CR's move to me made it Narc 2 - EF 2 - CR 1 - brit 1. I get in the thread 10 minutes before deadline, see CR's rationale, and don't like it at all. So I move my vote from EF back to CR. Narc 2 - CR 2 - EF 1 - brit 1. Then, unfortunately, EF and murra5y follow CR's lead 5 minutes before deadline, making it brit 3 - Narc 2 - CR 1.

Perhaps, at this point, I should have given myself up, leaving you 3 to fight amongst yourselves today when it would have turned up that I'm a villager. But talk of the tie comes up, and murra5y moves to CR at the deadline to knot us up where we finished.

What to take from all this? Great question...

Yeah, it's a lot more intricate than it may have seemed, huh?

Review my analysis of my action when EF was about to be lynched. I make what is, IMO, a very strong argument for being a villager. Obviously, I know I am a villager, but it would help us all if we agreed to that and were able to concentrate on the others.

I understand, though, that it takes a leap to accept what someone is saying which is also inherently self-serving. I am just asking you to consider my actions in switching the vote away from EF and ask yourself if I as a ghost would do that from a villager EF.

[Chief Rum]

In Scenario Two, brit is the one who is going to be lynched. Late in the deadline, the only apparent options are brit dies or we go for the tie.

So let's look at brit as the lynch target. We know that whether brit is the villager or the ghost, he will want to live. So it's no surprise he would push for the tie or support himself there. A tie is the only way he lives. So brit's actions can't really be determined to be those of a ghost or a villager.

I pushed for brit to be lynched, and was the main person influencing the village to go that way. Clearly, I did not want a tie.

If brit is a villager, you might say, oh Chief could be the ghost, but remember, if I am a ghost, I already had EF up for lynch and changed things around. What would be the point of doing that for the same result (a villager dying)? So for argument's sake, let's put aside that I am a ghost.

Let's say brit is a villager, and I am too. What do a ghostly EF or murrayyyyy care if brit dies? Either way, they get a villager. So they will support brit being lynched.

If brit is a ghost, then unfortunately, a villager murrayyyyy bought into brit's plea and kept him alive through the living tie.

Assume I am a villager.

BRIT=VILLAGER ==>> there is little incentive for the ghost to force the tie. He can't lose with a tie, and he could win (the best scenario is with a tie). But he knows that at worst, it will be him and the cultist against three villagers, and a move to tie it up will make him look suspicious to a group that will have the votes to lynch him. If brit is a villager, I don't think the ghost forces a tie.

So if brit is a villager, so is murrayyyyy (he forced the tie), and EF is our ghost.

BRIT=GHOST==>> Obviously, the ghost will do whatever he can to survive. Unfortunately, so would a brit villager try to survive, so we can't tell anything from his actions.

Obviously, if brit is the ghost, then we need to lynch him.

So the strongest scenarios has us at brit versus EF. Again.

[Chief Rum]

There is an outside possibility for murrayyyyy to be the ghost. He knows if he let's brit die, it will be him and Narc versus me and EF today. Tie results would not be known, and deadline voting shenanigans would likely be required to give him the best chance of winning in that scenario today. So today would have been a lot of work with an uncertain result.

But weigh that against the tie scenario. Results D & E. In Result D, he has the possibility to put an end to it yesterday by switching to a tie. The previous tie ended in all death, so there is some evidence that will happen again. But if it fails, if he switches and everyone lives, it will be 3-2 villagers versus bad guys, with him seeming the most suspicious for forcing the tie.

So you have to ask yourself, is murrayyyyy the kind of player to take a chance on that tie, going for Result D at the risk of Result E, or would he play it safe and stick with brit dying (Result A)?

[Chief Rum]

More food for thought re: brit at the deadline.

His vote was on me. It was 3 for brit, 2 for Narc and then brit's vote on me.

As it turns out, brit was facing the same situation as EF in Scenario 1. He could force the tie with Narc and take his chances with the tie gods.

Here's the thing, though--he didn't do that. Remember, I said EF in Scenario One would have eventually switched to Narc and forced the tie, if I hadn't changed my mind on him.

And brit was here. He was clearly desperately trying to survive, but he didn't opt for the Narc tie.

Brit as a ghost knows the game will end if he dies, and up until the last minute of the deadline, that was what was going to happen. Instead of forcing the simple tie (brit versus Narc), he tried to talk murrayyyyy or EF into forcing the tie.

I don't think a ghost brit would do that. He would just force the tie with Narc and hope that this time everyone would live. He wouldn't put his fate in the hands of a villager murrayyyyy to produce a tie he could do himself. The only advantage of having murrayyyyy do it would be to have me in the tie, and that does nothing. If the tie is death, doesn't matter. If the tie is life, I am alive either way. So if brit went that route to include me, there doesn't seem to be much point to it.

So I don't think brit is a ghost.

in my mind, I am thinking it is EF after all, or it is murrayyyyy taking a chance with the tie result.

[Chief Rum]

I think Narc is playing a waiting game, or he has decided not to vote at all.

[EagleFan]

Jeez, I expected there to be maybe 1 post since I last posted.

Quick check in at work.


Thoughts on those remaining:

Narc - If he is actually the remaining ghost he deserves the win; have to stay with believing he is the cultist at this point.

murrayyyyy - Having never played against him I can't get a good read. He made a gutsy move last night. Aside from that his game has looked a lot like an UTR wolf. His reaction to last night reminded me of his reaction when he thought that he was lynched in the previous game, but to the other direction. He clearly seemed to think that he had just won the game. I have not yet been convinced to move my vote.

Chief - he is really making me uncomfortable with his sudden involvement in trying to help. He is playing a lot like wolf Chief. Stay UTR until he can try to hit the winning homerun.

brit - No real feel for him at the moment. He seems to have been gunning for me but that doesn't make him a wolf.

[EagleFan]

There is an outside possibility for murrayyyyy to be the ghost. He knows if he let's brit die, it will be him and Narc versus me and EF today. Tie results would not be known, and deadline voting shenanigans would likely be required to give him the best chance of winning in that scenario today. So today would have been a lot of work with an uncertain result.


I look at his reaction after the deadline. That was just like his reaction from the previous game but instead of upset villager being lynched it was one of someone who seemed to truly believed they just won. The only way to believe in that outcome would be if he knew that there were 2 villagers in that lynch vote.

[EagleFan]

Back to work, will check back in when I can. Have a couple hours of meetings ahead of me but I will check in before leaving. If my laptop has been cleared of whatever that was then I will be online for a little while tonight to discuss.

[Narcizo]

To be honest I already consider myself to be out of the game. I'm with Danny on the sidelines cheering on the ghost. Don't expect anything from me today. Unless you all want to vote nightfall before I go to bed. Then I'll be happy to decide where to vote if it makes a difference. :)

Or you can all vote no lynch and nightfall now. I promise to judge everyone's cases carefully on their merits before making my decision.

[murrayyyyy]

Here is the problem with looking at all 3 (from my perspective).

Chief and Eagle have the same voting record at the end of every day. Both usually placed right behind each other.

D1 - 113 and 118 (EF) are the votes. (2 of the last 5 votes)
EF votes for Lathum then bullet, chief for bullet only. (all village votes)

D2 - 203 and 223 (EF) are the votes (2 of the last 3 votes)
EF votes for Brit, Danny, Autumn, Chief votes for Autumn only.

D3 - 292 and 317 (CW) are the votes
EF votes Brit and then Lathum. CH votes Lathum only.

D4 - Both on Brit

[Chief Rum]

So, we're both ghosts? :)

[murrayyyyy]

Brit and I were the last 2 votes on Danny that created a tie with 6 mins left and Brit didn't move off Danny. That's a big risk since he has played more and this was my first tie ever in a vote. He had plenty of time to move off Danny. That would be ballsy of both of us to vote late on Danny when we didn't have to.

In fact all me, Brit, and EF have voted for Danny during the game and Danny had a hanging vote on EF most of day 2.

Ugh, I'm thinking chief has played as a UTR ghost the whole game. Not much of a voting record, always on the body. Only one vote a day. Would he play that sloppy on purpose?

[murrayyyyy]

So, we're both ghosts? :)

Day two keeps screwing with my mind...

[murrayyyyy]

Day two keeps screwing with my mind...

I mean d3, Brit should have moved off Danny if he was a ghost.

[murrayyyyy]

unvote Britrock
vote Chief Rum

It came down to D2 and D3 for me. I don't think me or Brit had the balls to vote off Danny that late D3 and Danny left EF out there all day by not moving off him D2.

[Chief Rum]

unvote Britrock
vote Chief Rum

It came down to D2 and D3 for me. I don't think me or Brit had the balls to vote off Danny that late D3 and Danny left EF out there all day by not moving off him D2.

What I keep pointing out about my ghost candidacy that no one seems to want to take in is this. Why as a ghost would I work to save a villager EF?

If you can make a compelling and reasonable case for me as a ghost and still explain that, hell, I'll vote myself!

[britrock88]

Chief, who would be your choice between EF and murrayyyyy?

[britrock88]

(EF, who would be your choice between Chief and murrayyyyy?)

[Chief Rum]

Chief, who would be your choice between EF and murrayyyyy?

I haven't 100% decided, but even if I was, I'm planning to wait until a little later because I want to be sure Narciszo is in bed and asleep, so he can't affect things. :)

[Narcizo]

I haven't 100% decided, but even if I was, I'm planning to wait until a little later because I want to be sure Narciszo is in bed and asleep, so he can't affect things. :)

Time Zone Facist! :mad:

[Chief Rum]

Time Zone Facist! :mad:

Okay, here you go.

VOTE NARCIZO

:D

[EagleFan]

Quick moment between meetings.

I keep waffling between Chief and five y.

Chief has played wolf Chief 101. UTR until the last moment then start steering things.

I still can't get last night's reaction from murrayyyyy out of my head. I always play this game on gut reaction to others' posts and I think I have a decent amount of success doing that. My gut reaction to his reaction is that he is a wolf.

As of now I am staying with my gut. Though my head is saying Chief.

If Narc is the final wolf and is laughing his @$$ off at us I humbly bow to his greatness.

[Chief Rum]

If there is a wolf Chief 101, I would be easier to catch, lol.

Actually, I think this is classic Chief, period. I have a history of starting slow in a game, usually because of being busy, but then finding something to analyze later in the game which can be illuminating.

There have been a handful of games I have done that that have really caught some wolves before.

No one seems to want to answer my question about my actions yesterday re: your lynch candidacy.

You guys need to start using your heads as well as your guts. Read my analysis. Make your call.

[EagleFan]

up to you EF, I just know I have to vote to keep Narc alive...

This also troubles me. I didn't see it yesterday.

I am feeling very good about my vote at this point.

[EagleFan]

I'm not changing my mind from here. Every time I second guess myself I end up guessing wrong.

[Narcizo]

OK everyone. Good luck to one of you, crap luck to the rest. I shan't bother voting, I'm trust you all to sort this out between yourselves.

I could vote nightfall but you guys haven't so sod yer.

[Narcizo]

"I'm trust" - go me!

[Chief Rum]

Watch Narc set his alarm for 15 minutes before deadline and drop a game-changing vote, lol.

[Narcizo]

Hi - I'm back!

Vote Narcizo

See you soon.

[britrock88]

This game is so silly.

[Chief Rum]

My gut tends to agree with EF here, and on how murrayyyyy has done some things. My analysis certainly supprots the possibility as well, although if he is a wolf, kudos to murrayyyyy for playing such a ballsy wolf.

UNVOTE NARCIZO

VOTE MURRAYYYYY

[murrayyyyy]

So we are destined to tie again or the wolves win...

[EagleFan]

I may be out for the evening. Hopefully no late wolf shenanigans. My laptop may be hosed, going to be reinstalling that tonight. Stupid facebookFacebook crap, think that is what did it. May boot up the work laptop in a bit to get on.

[murrayyyyy]

Can I ask this question? Why are we even debating the vote today? If we kill narc and the ghost gets a night kill then it is two villagers versus one ghost. Let the three sort it out tomorrow. Seems like better odds than the four of us taking crazy stabs tonight.

[EagleFan]

The more he talks the more positive I am.

[murrayyyyy]

unvote chief rum
Vote narcizo

[EagleFan]

Will check back once in a while but at this point I am totally pissed about my laptop and will be either tending to that on on the PS3 letting out some frustration with UFC3 while the wipes and installs run.

[EagleFan]

closed all the web connections? I had the same thing happen the other day and I shut down chrome and it went away. Was watching firstrow for the soccer at work the other day.

It wouldn't even boot up tonight. Wiping and re-installing.

My own stupid fault for not paying attention. Thought I was clicking on a legitimate CBS link for The Big Bang Theory on Facebook. Took me to some weird page and next thing I knew my laptop restarted and the sounds started in the background.

No virus scanned found anything. Tried a safe mode scan and found a couple files that it said were locked and unable to scan.

Then tonight lockups and blue screen whenever I tried to boot.

Pissed at myself and even more pissed at a**holes that get off making crap like that. I would completely be in favor of the death penalty for people like that right about now. :eek:

[murrayyyyy]

Try search and destroy in safe mode yet? I've saved some people computers that way.

[EagleFan]

Tried last night but today it locks up just trying to boot.

I feel so out dated. I knew just how to handle these things back when Windows 95 was the OS of choice. :)

[EagleFan]

Is there a vote count?

[EagleFan]

2-2 with brit yet to vote from what I see?

[murrayyyyy]

Is brit brave enough as a wolf to not vote?

[murrayyyyy]

Tried last night but today it locks up just trying to boot.

I feel so out dated. I knew just how to handle these things back when Windows 95 was the OS of choice. :)

Got a new one with windows 8 and hate using it.

[britrock88]

Oh, Narc did vote. Well, gee.

I can't say I'm confident in choosing from among the 3 of you, but I think I'm on board with Chief (and EF) at this point.

Vote murrayyyyy

[EagleFan]

Got it to boot to safe mode command prompt. Trying one last scan. Cross your fingers!!!!

[murrayyyyy]

Welp pencil in a win for the bad guys then. I tried.

[britrock88]

Mnn...

[murrayyyyy]

I was vanilla. Game is over

[Zinto]

Deadline

[EagleFan]

Scan has already found not one but two trojan horses. How did Norton miss them?

[britrock88]

I didn't like that I spent yesterday trying to play Chief and Eagle off each other, only to end up voting for the 3rd guy today.

[EagleFan]

FWIW I'm certain you made the right choice. My gut can;t be that far off.

[murrayyyyy]

Scan has already found not one but two trojan horses. How did Norton miss them?

Some have later dates and times established to start. Glad to hear you found them

[EagleFan]

Some have later dates and times established to start. Glad to hear you found them

I'll feel better when I get it all the way back up. Thanks though. It does at least feel good that something was found. Though it still pisses me off at people that think they are fun to write.

[murrayyyyy]

FWIW I'm certain you made the right choice. My gut can;t be that far off.

Nah. I'm really vanilla. Game is over.

[britrock88]

FWIW I'm certain you made the right choice. My gut can;t be that far off.

Based on the end-game dynamics, we had to lynch one of the 4 of us. So it was right in that sense.

[Zinto]

As you gather around Murray, pointing at him you hear a body drop to the floor. Britrock is lying lifelessly on the floor looking like he had been scared to death.

"You have chose Murray so away he goes" the voice over the PA anounces.

When you turn back around Murray is gone and Narcizo smirks as he hits Chief Rum in the back of the head with a pool cue. EagleFans body stops as the ghost of Baron Von Baron leaves his body and moves to Narcizos.

" I am finally free from this accursed hotel!" he screams as he walks out of the front door.

Murray was a vanilla villager.
Britrock was a vanilla villager.

The ghosts win!

[britrock88]

Chief 1.0'd us. Sigh.

[britrock88]

Wait. Misread that. Crap.

[EagleFan]

Oh, crap, I guess I was a ghost. Must have misread the PM. :)

[Danny]

Wasn't chief read again

[EagleFan]

Thanks for the game Z. Sorry I was a little preoccupied the past couple nights with that laptop issue. If I had noticed murrayyyyy's move in time I would have switched last night.

[Danny]

Way to bring us home eagle and narc. Very well done

[britrock88]

Damn, and after having pointed the finger at you to start yesterday, EF!

[EagleFan]

I thought we were screwed at the point of the reveal.

[murrayyyyy]

nice job Eagle and Danny... how much did you sweat D2 or was DAnny just not around?

[Danny]

Nk change n2 saved us

[murrayyyyy]

I also think it's the first time I've voted ghost on D1, D2 and D3...

[britrock88]

If I hadn't let Chief take over the village thinking... ;)

[EagleFan]

We almost NK'd Narc the night we hit on clap. Made a late change to him on a hunch that he was the seer.

[Zinto]

I will apologize that I was barely around also. I forgot classes end in about two weeks and I feel the pressure from all the procrastination I have done this semester but at least it almost summer.

[murrayyyyy]

so who was you nk going to be if Brit went with Narc tonight?

[EagleFan]

I will apologize that I was barely around also. I forgot classes end in about two weeks and I feel the pressure from all the procrastination I have done this semester but at least it almost summer.

No worries Z. Thanks for the game.

Oh, we hate your tie mechanic. :)

[Danny]

nice job Eagle and Danny... how much did you sweat D2 or was DAnny just not around?

D2 was interesting. I felt like the odds were stacked against us a bit in the game and I knew I was a possible early scan, so I wanted some trust for EF or vice versa if one of us was caught.

[EagleFan]

Was still going to be brit; though I had considered not sending in a kill to mess with things a bit.

[Danny]

FWIW, I thought lynching Narc today was clearly the right play for the village.

[murrayyyyy]

If you no voted on the NK I would have voted Chief tomorrow.

[Danny]

I also think it's the first time I've voted ghost on D1, D2 and D3...

I actually thought having my vote on EF for 80% of day 1 and all of day 2 would have bought him even more trust then it did, but I guess everyone had some stuff in their favor.

[murrayyyyy]

FWIW, I thought lynching Narc today was clearly the right play for the village.

I put it up too late. I didn't want to put it up early where Narc could pull back his vote. After I forced a tie last night I knew no one would trust me but it seemed like a perfect risk to take.

[EagleFan]

Day one almost hurt us. I was just about to switch my vote and I refreshed first to see that Danny had just done so. I didn't want to follow him up so I stayed where I was.

Then day two I had to stay put as long as possible; was feeling a little pressure at that point.

I completely missed the deadline for the tie with Lathum and Danny but I was already on Lathum so I couldn't have done anything anyway.

We were hoping murrayyyyy's move last night was going to have the same result as the previous tie. Sadly we weren't that lucky.

[murrayyyyy]

at least I beat Danny in post this game ;-)

[EagleFan]

FWIW, I thought lynching Narc today was clearly the right play for the village.

So did I but I didn't want to say anything and accidentally talk everyone into it.


If you no voted on the NK I would have voted Chief tomorrow.

That was part of my line of thinking. That I wanted to keep the group at everyone's throat but then didn't want to risk another tie break unknown.

I actually thought having my vote on EF for 80% of day 1 and all of day 2 would have bought him even more trust then it did, but I guess everyone had some stuff in their favor.

I had hoped but instead it turned into "I bet he was trying to gain trust for EF."

[EagleFan]

I think Narc's fake reveal may have worked better if he outed a different villager other than Lathum. Lathum may have gone with the first to reveal theory at that point.

[EagleFan]

Lathum had me paranoid with his day one play. Thought for certain he was the seer trying to mess with our heads.

[claphamsa]

I knew Danny was a wolf! boo

[britrock88]

Probably should have reassessed lynching Narc in more detail today after yesterday's no-lynch, but time can get in the way of things. :(

[Danny]

I knew Danny was a wolf! boo

You think I am a wolf every single game, so sometimes you will be correct :D

[Narcizo]

I think Narc's fake reveal may have worked better if he outed a different villager other than Lathum. Lathum may have gone with the first to reveal theory at that point.

Yeah - I knew I wanted it to be someone who hadn't voted Autumn and I didn't think Bullet was the seer because of his "night action" comment so that left murra5y or Lathum. I actually thought Lathum could be the seer and had scanned you so I felt that that was the way I had to go. My main concerns were preventing the person who hadn't been scanned getting lynched on day three and outing the seer - so I guess I met the objectives. Would have been nice to kill a villager without losing Danny but that was always going to be a reach.

Day two was horrible - two games where the wolves have sailed through and then the one where I'm on their side BOTH of them were on the block. Luckily Chief saved us there. :) And again when he steered the vote off of you on day four. Got to say that I was impressed with Chief's reasoning the last couple of days, even if it did lead him wrong on day four. I was sure he was going to suggest a tied Eagle/murra5y vote last night. But yeah voting me was clearly the right play on the last day - as clearly right as voting me the day before was wrong. Glad I wasn't around day four because I'd have probably panicked - that was crazy stuff down the stretch.

Unfortunately the cultist is probably the role that REALLY has to be around at deadline to be fully effective. Had I been here I could have been the one to vote Eagle and then move my vote off of him on day one and let Danny stay on Eagle all day. The general lack of discussion made it pretty hard for me to do what I wanted as a cultist (gain suspicion). I actually tried but I just couldn't come up with the sort of stuff that would get me doubts - survival from the lynch is too deeply ingrained in me I guess.

I think the tie rules should be explicit - and in a game like this where there should be odd numbers all the way I'd stick with first vote wins a tie. Other than that good game Zinto - sorry about the lack of activity, I guess that's a result of a vanilla game.

[Narcizo]

Oh and I had my usual luck with scan targets

1. Fontisian
2. Claphamsa

Go me!

[Danny]

Oh and I had my usual luck with scan targets

1. Fontisian
2. Claphamsa

Go me!

It means we were on the same page with who might be seer

[Lathum]

People can play the game any way they like, but I think Bulletsponge did a read disservice by not revealing.

I just don't understand his "I don't reveal" line of thinking. Revealing is every bit as much a part of the game as voting.

[Danny]

I did not understand the play either. As a wolf, it was very obvious he scanned me very early on in the day (as after not voting for me or talking much about me for two days he suddenly talked about how suspicious I was and voted me). So he was going to be nked either way, why not just full reveal early on, get your first wolf, catch the cultist and go from there.

[claphamsa]

I disagree, everyone should play how they see fit, there is no one "right way" thats one of the reasons I stopped for so long.

[Danny]

Well that's true but we can offer our opinions as well.

[claphamsa]

Well that's true but we can offer our opinions as well.

sure, but when you word it how you do, you risk running off people.

[fontisian]

Well done wolves.
FWIW, I thought lynching Narc today was clearly the right play for the village.
This.

[Danny]

I don't know, I just said I didn't understand the play and explained my reasoning, I think it hurt more because no one knew bullets style of not revealing as far as I know.

[EagleFan]

People can play the game any way they like, but I think Bulletsponge did a read disservice by not revealing.

I just don't understand his "I don't reveal" line of thinking. Revealing is every bit as much a part of the game as voting.

With that said, you also blasted Narc for revealing. Saying it would be a bad play for the seer to reveal at that time.

[EagleFan]

Though I knew he wasn't I would have so loved Narc to have been the wolf at the end. How awesome would that have been. :)

[EagleFan]

Oh, on the laptop front. I have not had any success at all. I have tried restoring from a couple months ago and starting over and once it boots, about 30 seconds later blue screen.

This sucks.

[Lathum]

With that said, you also blasted Narc for revealing. Saying it would be a bad play for the seer to reveal at that time.

Because I knew Narc wasn't the seer. This comment makes zero sense. Less than zero actually unless you look at it in a vacuum.

Once Narc fake reveals it makes perfect sense for the real seer to reveal, especially since they found a different wolf because we can nail 2 baddies.

There is a reason why rolled villagers rarely make it until the end, because at some point they have to reveal to help flush out a wolf or build a COT. It's just part of the game.

I think I'm going to try a new strategy, it's called the no vote strategy. I'm not going to vote in games. You think people will comment about it? They sure will.

FWIW I don't think anyone came off as being rude to Bulletsponge, just giving an opinion.

[Narcizo]

Though I knew he wasn't I would have so loved Narc to have been the wolf at the end. How awesome would that have been. :)

I thought about that at the end as well - but then I realised that in that scenario I wouldn't know who the cultist was and if the cultist got lynched then I would be dead the next day.

It would have made sense though as my voting record was (intentionally) crappy. Can't believe you guys even considered nking me after I'd put my vote on Autumn.

[Narcizo]

Not sure about Bullet's strategy either although I see it more as a black mark against my fake reveal that Brit and murra5y both went with him at the end. I should have pushed more for Bullet being the cultist. But I couldn't believe nobody said that if I was bad I was probably trying to incriminate Danny as a villager as that was kind of what I was going for (apart from steering the voting away from Eagles).

[britrock88]

EagleFan caught up to me on post count in the postgame! Aah! :)

[EagleFan]

Because I knew Narc wasn't the seer. This comment makes zero sense. Less than zero actually unless you look at it in a vacuum.

Once Narc fake reveals it makes perfect sense for the real seer to reveal, especially since they found a different wolf because we can nail 2 baddies.

There is a reason why rolled villagers rarely make it until the end, because at some point they have to reveal to help flush out a wolf or build a COT. It's just part of the game.

I think I'm going to try a new strategy, it's called the no vote strategy. I'm not going to vote in games. You think people will comment about it? They sure will.

FWIW I don't think anyone came off as being rude to Bulletsponge, just giving an opinion.

At the end of the day, it's a game. If everyone played exactly the same way it would be a boring game that no one would play.

[Autumn]

Nice game everyone. Sorry, I wasn't around much to make a case against myself.

[Narcizo]

Once Narc fake reveals it makes perfect sense for the real seer to reveal, especially since they found a different wolf because we can nail 2 baddies.


Actually I'm not so sure. If I don't think the wolves know my identity as the seer then it might be worth it. We lynch you and the wolves kill someone. I hope I can find the wolf during that night. Reveal next day and we lynch Danny. I get Nked the night and we have either found the other wolf or, more likely, we have a cleared villager who can lead the vote on the final day. I think that works out better (for the village) than what actually happened.

Also better would be to immediately reveal - lynch Danny and then have two shots at getting the other wolf with you cleared the next day.

[Danny]

I actually was going to fake reveal as seer on day three if I felt confident of who the cultist was.

[Danny]

Of coruse I never ran that plan by Eaglefan, so he would have been surprised. I actually often find it better not to precoordinate everything with your fellow wolves so things come out more naturally. I think people who wolf with me have noticed I dont send too many PM's other than talking about who to night kill.

[Lathum]

At the end of the day, it's a game. If everyone played exactly the same way it would be a boring game that no one would play.

Making the smart play isn't the same play every game. I am sure there are plenty of games there shouldn't be a reveal.

I don't think anyone is being critical, hell, people were equally if not more critical of my day one offer to be lynched. It's discussin the benefits or downfall of a strategy.