A Wererolf, a Vampire, and a Villager Walk Into a Bar (Game Over, Vampires Win)

[bhlloy]

It’s day 1. What is there to conclusively say?

There's always lots to say, even on day 1. For example why you are voting or unvoting people. Quiet people who are trying very hard to not piss anyone off, and go with the crowd multiple times without much explanation have a habit of being a bit suspect.

[Telle]

A death with no information about it is a complete and utter waste. That's what a default-vote for a no-show would be.

And the number of deaths only matter if they're good guys that are dead. With the bandwagonning on voting for bhlloy because he hadn't shown up yet, it's likely he was a good guy and you and your bad guy friends were hoping to get an easy kill.

[RendeR]

If my spreadsheet is accurate.. 6 of the first 10 votes were for bhlloy, with the other 4 votes split on 2 people.

At any given time it was never more than a 2 vote difference. 5-3 was where it maxed out, then things leveled out more and there hasn't been a more than 1 vote difference since.

[GoldenEagle]

UNVOTE bhlloy
VOTE henry296

I want to see where things go from here and force those who have an inconsequential vote at the moment to make some decisions.

[Telle]

At any given time it was never more than a 2 vote difference. 5-3 was where it maxed out, then things leveled out more and there hasn't been a more than 1 vote difference since.

You're right. Looking closer at the spreadsheet, one of the votes for henry was an unvote of bhlloy. So the net number on him only got to 5, but there were still 6 votes for him within the first 10 votes.

[bhlloy]

I'm very interested to know why RendeR and Henry aren't on me right now. Either very bad bad teammates who have been caught with their pants down and are waiting to try to find the right time to sacrifice one if needed, or genuine villagers who we might not want to lose. Hmmmmm.... we'd be very lucky if we had 2 of the baddies in the top 3 day 1.

[RendeR]

A death with no information about it is a complete and utter waste. That's what a default-vote for a no-show would be.

And the number of deaths only matter if they're good guys that are dead. With the bandwagonning on voting for bhlloy because he hadn't shown up yet, it's likely he was a good guy and you and your bad guy friends were hoping to get an easy kill.


I'm pretty sure I've made it clear that learning his role would be a very important piece of information, thats not nothing, along with the fact that it keeps all the active players alive at the same time, is also not nothing

It negates your entire argument.

And now you're blatantly accusing me of being bad on night 1? Interesting.

[GoldenEagle]

It is probably too late to get much momentum going on Telle today, but I certainly think that is somewhere we can look tomorrow.

[bhlloy]

unvote LSG
Vote henry296

No point in being the only vote on somebody 20 mins before deadline, and interested to see some movement between the 2 up there

[EagleFan]

As of post 259:

henry296 4 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), GoldenEagle (254), bhlloy (259)
RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221)
bhlloy 1 - LoneStarGirl (231)

No current vote - henry296, RendeR

[henry296]

vote Telle

That is my best guess. I don’t have any reason to strongly suggest anyone else. We are all blind and she is making something out of nothing.

[britrock88]

As of #239:

RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221)
bhlloy 2 - GoldenEagle (112), LoneStarGirl (231)
henry296 2 - Autumn (82), timmae (93)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (230)

No current vote - henry296, RendeR

UNVOTE bhlloy
VOTE henry296

I want to see where things go from here and force those who have an inconsequential vote at the moment to make some decisions.

RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), GoldenEagle (~255)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (230)
bhlloy 1 - LoneStarGirl (231)

RendeR and henry holding onto their votes; LSG and bhlloy locked onto each other with maybe the more consequential outlying votes as things stand.

[RendeR]

I'm very interested to know why RendeR and Henry aren't on me right now. Either very bad bad teammates who have been caught with their pants down and are waiting to try to find the right time to sacrifice one if needed, or genuine villagers who we might not want to lose. Hmmmmm.... we'd be very lucky if we had 2 of the baddies in the top 3 day 1.


I've stated this, multiple times. My entire reasoning was based on you being a no-show.

That is no longer the case, so I moved my vote.

As stated above I'd have it on Telle right now based on her specious arguments the entire time and her atypical aggressive tone in everything she's been posting.

Unfortunately I like staying alive, so until I am safe I have to save my vote for defense.

[britrock88]

RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), GoldenEagle (~255)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (230)
bhlloy 1 - LoneStarGirl (231)

RendeR and henry holding onto their votes; LSG and bhlloy locked onto each other with maybe the more consequential outlying votes as things stand.

Dang, this was current as of 258 and obviously out-of-date by the time I finished it.

[Telle]

We already know that at least one role isn't in the game. It's not unlikely that multiple roles aren't in the game. How would knowing one role that's no longer in the game help anything? The vote record is the most important piece of data in this game. If people default-vote, that data for day 1 becomes meaningless.

[bhlloy]

FWIW if i'd really been inactive night 1 I'd have expected to be voted off, and would 100% vote that way as a goodie. But I also think it's stupid to think a baddie would defend the inactive baddie in that situation, so I don't like RendeR's logic here.

(and yes I've conflated wolf and villager like seventeen times already, so I'll be using generic goodie/baddie terms moving forward)

[LoneStarGirl]

Unvote Bhlloy

Vote Render

A tie this late can cause some interesting movement. I’m staying by my computer until 9:00

[Telle]

#267
RendeR and henry296 tied w/ 4 votes each, 1 for me

[Autumn]

Can I really not get anyone to come with me on LSG? Quiet as hell, lots of posts saying stuff but not really saying stuff. Unvoted me with the herd after I showed up but didn't really explain it. Defensive when I just put the first vote on earlier today?

I'm not feeling RendeR particularly, but I'll switch in a bit unless the situation changes. Sorry buddy. I'd rather be on LSG or GE.

Funny enough, now that bhlloy is here, I'm having the same problem. Why does the above post make it seem like there are no other options, when Henry is there with votes on the table? It feels like people are actively avoiding choosing him as an option. So many people that I now feel like I'm missing something.

[EagleFan]

Soon they will bring one to us, we will be one step closer...

[henry296]

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

[RendeR]

As I said, I will break or cause a tie in self defense. I am willing to consider other votes if I know I am safe near deadline. I agree with GE, Telle needs to be seriously studied for tomorrow.

[EagleFan]

As of post 273:

henry296 4 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), GoldenEagle (254), bhlloy (259)
RendeR 4 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221), LoneStarGirl (267)
Telle 1 - henry296 (261)

No current vote - RendeR

[Autumn]

We've seen lots of votes, that will be useful eventually. Does someone have the vote count as of "deadline" last night handy?

[Autumn]

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

What does "same point of view" mean?

[Telle]

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

? If you're considering self-voting, that makes no sense whichever side of the game you're on. If you're a good guy, don't be stupid and cause us to lose one! If you're a baddie, your numbers are already limited so why would you do that? Unless you're a baddie and know that RendeR is one too but he's a more powerful one so if it comes down to the two of you then it's better for you to die than him?

[GoldenEagle]

Maybe it is not to late to get something going on Telle.

UNVOTE henry296
VOTE Telle

[bhlloy]

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

This is a strange take. Even a vanilla villager is very valuable in this format. And yeah, what exactly do you mean?

[britrock88]

vote Telle

That is my best guess. I don’t have any reason to strongly suggest anyone else. We are all blind and she is making something out of nothing.

This reads as a good guy giving an honest read.

[bhlloy]

? If you're considering self-voting, that makes no sense whichever side of the game you're on. If you're a good guy, don't be stupid and cause us to lose one! If you're a baddie, your numbers are already limited so why would you do that? Unless you're a baddie and know that RendeR is one too but he's a more powerful one so if it comes down to the two of you then it's better for you to die than him?

Feels like the classic "go passive aggressive close to deadline to save self" move to me. I'm actually feeling better about this vote right now.

[Autumn]

GE, to me part of what makes Telle suspicious is her defense of Henry yesterday, so I'm happy with a Henry vote tonight as that will tell us whether that was actually suspicious or not.

[GoldenEagle]

My vote was never solid on henry. I just wanted to see what the movement looked like. I find Telle's reasoning of defending the no show vote very strange. I think she pushed that narrative a bit too hard.

[RendeR]

VOTE TELLE

[Telle]

As of #146:

bhlloy 4 (henry, GE, render, LSG)
henry 3 (autumn, timmae, CR)
render 2 (britrock, telle)

Post #149 last night, shortly before 10pm. No votes after that before what was then the deadline.

[henry296]

What does "same point of view" mean?

We are making the same argument about Telle.

[britrock88]

Maybe it is not to late to get something going on Telle.

UNVOTE henry296
VOTE Telle

This frees up others to move in response.

UNVOTE RendeR
VOTE Telle

[bhlloy]

GE, to me part of what makes Telle suspicious is her defense of Henry yesterday, so I'm happy with a Henry vote tonight as that will tell us whether that was actually suspicious or not.

I think it also gives us a pretty good read on britrock, given that drive by above

[henry296]

This is a strange take. Even a vanilla villager is very valuable in this format. And yeah, what exactly do you mean?

There is at least some chance the RendeR has a more valuable role than me and therefore it is better for him to stay.

[Telle]

GE, to me part of what makes Telle suspicious is her defense of Henry yesterday, so I'm happy with a Henry vote tonight as that will tell us whether that was actually suspicious or not.

When was I defending henry?

[LoneStarGirl]

Vote update??

[bhlloy]

My spidey sense is tingling right now with BR showing up 10 before deadline to move heat off henry, I have to say

[Telle]

If you all jump on me now, PLEASE "vote RendeR" tomorrow after you see that I come up good. No, this isn't desperate effort to sway you vote now. Just DO NOT FORGET tomorrow. Please.

[britrock88]

I think it also gives us a pretty good read on britrock, given that drive by above

I haven’t left...

[Autumn]

When was I defending henry?

Well, what I mean is your seeming allergy to voting Henry.

[henry296]

If you all jump on me now, PLEASE "vote RendeR" tomorrow after you see that I come up good. No, this isn't desperate effort to sway you vote now. Just DO NOT FORGET tomorrow. Please.
I agree with that.

[bhlloy]

4-3 Telle over Henry? I'm not moving, I think over the last 30 mins I'm feeling really good about a henry lynch

[britrock88]

Vote update??

4-3-3, Telle on the block.

[Telle]

Me 4, RendeR 3, henry 3

[Telle]

Well, what I mean is your seeming allergy to voting Henry.

? Because I wanted to vote RendeR? Honestly at this point I'm thinking they're both on the bad side.

[EagleFan]

As of post 300:

Telle 4 - henry296 (261), GoldenEagle (277), RendeR (283), britrock88 (286)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), bhlloy (259)
RendeR 3 - Telle (145), Chief Rum (221), LoneStarGirl (267)

[GoldenEagle]

4-3 Telle over Henry? I'm not moving, I think over the last 30 mins I'm feeling really good about a henry lynch

I feel the same way about Telle, but it is day 1 and its a random guess.

[britrock88]

Day 1 rarely offers much, but henry and render have called telle into question in a persuasive way. Unsure whether we would look next at render (as telle wishes) or bhlloy voters if telle turns up good.

[Telle]

Ok... we don't know the tie mechanism but I know I'm good and I know if I don't switch then I'm dead. Sooo..

unvote RendeR
vote henry296

[RendeR]

I saw THAT coming.

[bhlloy]

Day 1 rarely offers much, but henry and render have called telle into question in a persuasive way. Unsure whether we would look next at render (as telle wishes) or bhlloy voters if telle turns up good.

I wouldn't look at me voters day 1 as voting off the inactive is 100% the right strategy. I would however look at who moved the voting off henry late

[EagleFan]

Deadline

[bhlloy]

deadline?

[britrock88]

A tie!?

[RendeR]

10:01

[Autumn]

Day 1 rarely offers much, but henry and render have called telle into question in a persuasive way. Unsure whether we would look next at render (as telle wishes) or bhlloy voters if telle turns up good.

It seems to me that Render and Telle were having a spat, but even if one of them is bad, i don't see any reason they would go out of their way to argue with the other and get them voted out. Neither knows each other role either way.

[EagleFan]

Day 1 Final:

Telle 4 - henry296 (261), GoldenEagle (277), RendeR (283), britrock88 (286)
henry296 4 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), bhlloy (259), Telle (303)
RendeR 2 - Chief Rum (221), LoneStarGirl (267)

[Telle]

I'm beginning to realize I'm likely the only data analyst by trade in this group....

[EagleFan]

We have a tie... thank you for this wonderful welcome back gift...

Results pending...

[RendeR]

I'm beginning to realize I'm likely the only data analyst by trade in this group....

And you are an amazing data analyst, however you put far too much emphasis on day 1 votes which, while they can offer some information, is mostly garbage anyway because, Day 1.

The best move was the plan I stated, keep everyone safe and still gain information lest we make a bad judgement call and kill off someone valuable by accident with no real info.

[henry296]

I'm beginning to realize I'm likely the only data analyst by trade in this group....
Me too

[RendeR]

We have a tie... thank you for this wonderful welcome back gift...



Was that sarcasm? :lol: :lol: :lol:

[EagleFan]

The deadline has approached. You cannot make up your mind on who is the evil among you. Is it Telle, is it TendeR, is it henry... Telle is on the blocks but a last minute attempt to save herself is made... Did it work? Or did it cause havoc? Major havoc?

The gate opens. Everyone is summoned to a different location in the yard by a different member of the village.

The elder recites a chant in some ancient dialect... All light is gone...

Everyone feels weird, they feel a change from within... what is happening...

[EagleFan]

Was that sarcasm? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Not sarcasm at all... :devil:

[RendeR]

Oh no he didn't.........

[EagleFan]

These results may take a few... a bit longer than a normal night... and this is only the 1st tie mechanic... it changes if there is another tie...

[Telle]

is it TendeR

RendeR, we totally missed an opportunity when naming our children!

[bhlloy]

Let's stay away from ties moving forward, mkay?

[RendeR]

LOL

[RendeR]

TendeR Vittles Moyer?



obviously a cat lover?

[Autumn]

If you had asked, telle, I could have warned you a tie in an EF game was not going to be a good idea.

[Telle]

If you had asked, telle, I could have warned you a tie in an EF game was not going to be a good idea.

Without the tie, I'm guaranteed dead. With the tie, I'm guessing at worst it's both of us? Started thinking towards the end that henry's in league with RendeR, so figured that was better than just me dead... and there's a chance I live through this. Or we're both good guys and I fucked it all up :)

[Telle]

TendeR Vittles Moyer?



obviously a cat lover?

How could our child NOT be a cat lover? And if it had been our first? That girl can't pass by a cat without stopping to pick it up and smother it with love... and with four cats in the house, it's a wonder she ever gets anything done :)

[Chief Rum]

The deadline has approached. You cannot make up your mind on who is the evil among you. Is it Telle, is it TendeR, is it henry... Telle is on the blocks but a last minute attempt to save herself is made... Did it work? Or did it cause havoc? Major havoc?

The gate opens. Everyone is summoned to a different location in the yard by a different member of the village.

The elder recites a chant in some ancient dialect... All light is gone...

Everyone feels weird, they feel a change from within... what is happening...

"Everyone is summoned..."

This sounds like any one of us could be goners tonight.

[RendeR]

Without the tie, I'm guaranteed dead. With the tie, I'm guessing at worst it's both of us? Started thinking towards the end that henry's in league with RendeR, so figured that was better than just me dead... and there's a chance I live through this. Or we're both good guys and I fucked it all up :)


"But this is what actually happened...."


Yer both baddies and we caught you.

[RendeR]

How could our child NOT be a cat lover? And if it had been our first? That girl can't pass by a cat without stopping to pick it up and smother it with love... and with four cats in the house, it's a wonder she ever gets anything done :)

This does explain a LOT....

[EagleFan]

The light has returned. You are all still here and everyone has a puzzled look on their face.

"We dislike indecision. Another tie may not be met so kindly."

You all feel somehow different... maybe...

[EagleFan]

Day 2 has begun

Deadline 10 PM EST 4/30

[RendeR]

SON OF A>>>>>>

[bhlloy]

"Everyone is summoned..."

This sounds like any one of us could be goners tonight.

I have a feeling the entire game is about to be turned on it's head. You were very quiet up to and around deadline tonight Chief...

[Autumn]

A lot to unpack but one thing is that there was no apparent night action, so the idea that the villagers do not have a night kill by default seems legit. Might be coincidence and it was forgotten or blocked or something also

[bhlloy]

Or it was blocked or cancelled by whatever the tie mechanic was?

[RendeR]

Welcome to day 1B......

[henry296]

Groundhog day

[britrock88]

...it just goes on and on, my friend...

[Autumn]

Well, I am probably the only person who can viably discuss what happened due to the tie because of my particular position. When the game started, I was a newly converted werewolf, meaning I was a neutral party. I won by surviving to the end if my Maker died. If my Maker died, I would become a villager, or a werewolf, depending on how the Maker died.

I say this because as of Night 1, I am now a Wolf. It seems clear to me that the magic spell "reset" everyone's roles, as if restarting the game. Because I had a neutral role but am now on the side of good, I can come clean about my switch. Understandably, others may not be able to discuss it.

This will make analyzing the votes of Day 1 nearly impossible. But we at least know the neutral role exists in the game. Hopefully others have something useful they can share. We may eventually be able to learn something from Day 1.

I am going to bed now but will answer any questions for me in the morning.

[GoldenEagle]

I can confirm what Autumn said. I was the wolf seer but now I am just a vanilla werewolf. Hopefully we didn't lose the seer, but if we did then that tie might be pretty costly.

[Chief Rum]

I have a feeling the entire game is about to be turned on it's head. You were very quiet up to and around deadline tonight Chief...

I wasn't around for most of it. Was back not long before lynch. What exactly did you want me to do or say?

I put in my vote for Render earlier, and saw no reason to switch. Unless you wanted me to jump on the suspicious Telle bandwagon that for some reason no one is talking about now? Four last hour votes?

[Chief Rum]

Ah crap, just read my PM from EagleFan. Yup looks like a reset.

I'll gladly tell you all I was a villager! But now I'm a plain vanilla wolf too. Feels weird to say that.

[RendeR]

Well SOMEONE is lying already......

There can't be that many vanilla wolves out there. 10 players? 3 people claiming to be good guys right away?

ponderous indeed.

[bhlloy]

Took the words right out of my mouth - I would be very certain at least one of those 3 claims is shady if not more.

Very suspicious of anyone rushing in to claim vanilla right now, as it’s the one role that can’t really be CC’d. Even if telling the truth, potentially all you are doing is prompting the potential reveal of more important good guy roles that can then be targeted.

[Chief Rum]

I'm speaking the truth. I can't speak for the others.

That said, understand there are those playing the game who will jump on someone NOT saying they're a vanilla wolf, even if they are. At first, I wasn't going to add that part and then I decided on at least a couple of players in our game today who would be silly enough to jump on the omission. So I decided to be clear.

[bhlloy]

If you are vanilla, I’m not sure you mind getting jumped on to protect those who have more critical roles, if you get what I’m saying. Maybe if there’s no really no NK mechanism then the seer has time to work through these claims, but I don’t like them.

[Chief Rum]

If you are vanilla, I’m not sure you mind getting jumped on to protect those who have more critical roles, if you get what I’m saying. Maybe if there’s no really no NK mechanism then the seer has time to work through these claims, but I don’t like them.

I don't mind getting jumped on, if a critical role is indeed at risk. But if I know I'm good, it doesn't do the good guys much good to kill me. It would better instead to kill a villager or a vampire.

As a former villager, my understanding is that we had a kill. We should plan for that eventuality again.

I suspect EF will have changed it up completely, as in where before maybe we had a vampire AND villagers, and this time we have just villagers. He probably re-rolled the entire game. That would be my guess.

But I have to believe villagers are a non-negotiable part of the game. Assuming that is true, and knowing what I understand from my time as a villager, they have a kill.

We need to be prepared for that and not act like it possibly won't happen.

[LoneStarGirl]

The light has returned. You are all still here and everyone has a puzzled look on their face.

"We dislike indecision. Another tie may not be met so kindly."

You all feel somehow different... maybe...


Eaglefan games always have amazing twists... I am for another tie just to see what ominous fate we will be met with

[LoneStarGirl]

Well SOMEONE is lying already......

There can't be that many vanilla wolves out there. 10 players? 3 people claiming to be good guys right away?

ponderous indeed.


Well I agree this is highly suspicious.... especially since I just checked my PMs and I am also a 'vanilla wolf'

[LoneStarGirl]

How can we have ten players and four are now claiming to be vanilla? And we already agreed there are roles that aren't being used, correct?

[timmae]

Way too many people jumping into the vanilla pool... and I think some people are too smart to jump vanilla and may do it just to make sure the villagers or vamps don't hunt outside of that pool. I also think some baddies will use that for cover D1. For that I..

vote LoneStarGirl

[timmae]

Do we have any people who have jumped from a baddie to the wolf team? I ask because I think a few of us switched within the wolf team but I am not sure yet if people can switch from good to bad and bad to good. Autumn played this exactly the way I would have played it so is in my "good" column for sure.

I need to hear from everyone today as I agree it could be a fresh start for all of our information building. If we use any info from D1 it could be misleading unless it is to compare to tone and types of discussion a player has between D1 and now. i.e. who has changed teams if anyone.

[henry296]

For now, I'm assuming it is a brand new game.

[henry296]

Do we have any people who have jumped from a baddie to the wolf team? I ask because I think a few of us switched within the wolf team but I am not sure yet if people can switch from good to bad and bad to good. Autumn played this exactly the way I would have played it so is in my "good" column for sure.



ChiefRum just implied that he switched from bad to good.

[timmae]

agree henry, new game with a reroll of everything seems likely. and I just reread all of D1 extended and the early morning start of D2. Chief is claiming to have done exactly what I questioned everyone about. We'll see if it holds true.

Weird question... would it help if we all provided what we were originally on D1? Or does that break the game a bit? If it is a reroll then it doesn't really matter but I guess it could just muck up our D2 information gather. Maybe we just leave it for the aftermath.

[Chief Rum]

ChiefRum just implied that he switched from bad to good.

Not implied.

I flat out said I did.

[timmae]

How can we have ten players and four are now claiming to be vanilla? And we already agreed there are roles that aren't being used, correct?

Absolutely roles that are not being used... initial ad states 11 roles for 10 people.

The advert states we will have wolves and villagers and maybe vampires. A reroll could mean that we originally had vamps and now do not or vice versa. I think all roles may be in play and it is likely that we have some vanilla villagers but not a ton.

[timmae]

Not implied.

I flat out said I did.

Sorry, bad wording on my part. It is possible, maybe not likely but possible, that it is subterfuge is what I wanted to say.

[Chief Rum]

agree henry, new game with a reroll of everything seems likely. and I just reread all of D1 extended and the early morning start of D2. Chief is claiming to have done exactly what I questioned everyone about. We'll see if it holds true.

Weird question... would it help if we all provided what we were originally on D1? Or does that break the game a bit? If it is a reroll then it doesn't really matter but I guess it could just muck up our D2 information gather. Maybe we just leave it for the aftermath.

I don't think that would be a good idea.

First off, if the game was re-rolled but the exact rolea are the same from one game to the next, we give the bad guys that info for free. Right now, they're guessing what dangerous rolea are out there.

Second, if we reveal that info, we will probably be opening ourselves up to being manipulated by the baddies, who will know if the game is the same or not, just re-rolled.

[Chief Rum]

Sorry, bad wording on my part. It is possible, maybe not likely but possible, that it is subterfuge is what I wanted to say.

Of course. It's a game of werewolf after all. :devil:

I don't expect anyone to take it at face value.

[timmae]

Thanks Chief... just realized I was using 'reroll' instead of using 'complete reset' in some of my posts. I figured a reroll would mean EF not only rolled who had what role but also rolled what roles were in the game.

Ughh.. I need coffee.

[henry296]

Of course. It's a game of werewolf after all. :devil:

I don't expect anyone to take it at face value.

That is why I said implied. Probably insinuated is a better word. I'm not sure yet if I believe you based on what I know.

[Telle]

Ah crap, just read my PM from EagleFan. Yup looks like a reset.

I'll gladly tell you all I was a villager! But now I'm a plain vanilla wolf too. Feels weird to say that.

So was RendeR a villager before too?? I'm 99% certain, but there's always room for doubt in my brain...

[LoneStarGirl]

so if CR went from bad to good then its a solid assumption the entire game just flipped around. Which means a good guy or two are now on the evil side of things.

On day one (or two) I thought Brittrock was a good guy and even had him followed since that was my skill. Unfortunately I lost that skill and learned nothing from it as I am now a vanilla wolf.

Following that logic

vote brittrock

[Telle]

So, I apologize for creating the tie that caused this mess. As a true data geek, I am cringing at what happened. I could not even imagine EF would get anywhere near THIS creative. I just assumed that I should not let a good guy die (me) if I could avoid it at all. And yes, I still am a good guy.. just not quite the same as before.

[Autumn]

I don't mind getting jumped on, if a critical role is indeed at risk. But if I know I'm good, it doesn't do the good guys much good to kill me. It would better instead to kill a villager or a vampire.

As a former villager, my understanding is that we had a kill. We should plan for that eventuality again.

I suspect EF will have changed it up completely, as in where before maybe we had a vampire AND villagers, and this time we have just villagers. He probably re-rolled the entire game. That would be my guess.

But I have to believe villagers are a non-negotiable part of the game. Assuming that is true, and knowing what I understand from my time as a villager, they have a kill.

We need to be prepared for that and not act like it possibly won't happen.

Chief, what is your understanding then of why there was no night kill?

[Autumn]

So, I apologize for creating the tie that caused this mess. As a true data geek, I am cringing at what happened. I could not even imagine EF would get anywhere near THIS creative. I just assumed that I should not let a good guy die (me) if I could avoid it at all. And yes, I still am a good guy.. just not quite the same as before.

The most common tie mechanics are that both targets are lynched, or that a random player is lynched, both of which are terrible outcomes for the village, so I would not suggest ever going for the tie unless you are a bad guy.

[timmae]

I have two thoughts regarding Telle's original D1 role... it'll be interesting to find out which way she falls. She certainly made this game interesting! Do we think the restart will help the good team or the bad team more? Chief had some good initial thoughts in post #360.

[britrock88]

Some probability exercises.

Let's assume there are 3 total baddies. If there was a total role reassignment last night, the players have a 70% chance of being assigned good, 30% of being assigned bad. For those 7 who were good on D1.0, you can expect 5 of them to still be good. For those 3 who were bad on D1.0, you can expect 1 to still be bad (with whatever alignment). And 2 players on each side (4 total) would have switched alignment.

If there are only 2 total baddies (1 each of villager/vampire?, no vampire team?), you're likelier only to have 1 pair of players swap alignment, though you could still have 2 pairs do so.

[henry296]

Adding to the probabilities, we need to make an assumption on if just roles changed or if team's changed. If team's stayed the same, Chief Rum's play is a great one to save himself for a day or two. I'm going to vote for him now, to test that theory.

Vote Chief Rum

[Autumn]

Certainly if no one else comes clean about having swapped sides, it starts to look bad for Chief. I'm waiting to see if anyone else has anything to say about their previous team. I know that someone here is now a neutral role, as I was, they're not going to want to come clean. Neither are however many bad guys we have. But if you've switched from bad to good, that's good for us to know. If no one else is coming out, perhaps the bad guys only switched bad guy roles, or swapped bad guy teams or something, in which case we can actually use Day 1 info.

[bhlloy]

I don't think that would be a good idea.

First off, if the game was re-rolled but the exact rolea are the same from one game to the next, we give the bad guys that info for free. Right now, they're guessing what dangerous rolea are out there.

Second, if we reveal that info, we will probably be opening ourselves up to being manipulated by the baddies, who will know if the game is the same or not, just re-rolled.

I'd agree with that. Additional reveals just force the reveal of information... although I don't agree with folks revealing vanilla it's somewhat harmless. More reveals will either force CC's for people who have valuable roles or put bad info out there if the person doesn't choose to CC.

I see 2 strategies for today... treat like a regular day 1 and let the chips fall where they may, or concentrate on the group that claimed vanilla with the strong suspicion that there just isn't room for 4 vanilla in this game. I like the latter strategy quite a bit because a lynch gives us good information, we're not hitting a seer or lookout and if that group gets whittled down the seer can concentrate one of the others for tonight.

I'll put up somebody who hasn't got any heat, either yesterday or so far today I guess.

[bhlloy]

Vote GoldenEagle

GE - as you claimed seer before the switch, maybe you could tell us who you were planning to look at N1 and why?

[Autumn]

I'd agree with that. Additional reveals just force the reveal of information... although I don't agree with folks revealing vanilla it's somewhat harmless. More reveals will either force CC's for people who have valuable roles or put bad info out there if the person doesn't choose to CC.

I see 2 strategies for today... treat like a regular day 1 and let the chips fall where they may, or concentrate on the group that claimed vanilla with the strong suspicion that there just isn't room for 4 vanilla in this game. I like the latter strategy quite a bit because a lynch gives us good information, we're not hitting a seer or lookout and if that group gets whittled down the seer can concentrate one of the others for tonight.

I'll put up somebody who hasn't got any heat, either yesterday or so far today I guess.

I have a couple thoughts on that. First, I want to dispute that there are 4 vanilla wolf claims. I did not claim vanilla.

Second, you're saying "we're not hitting a seer or lookout" as if it is possible anyone was going to come out and claim they had a good guy role. Teh fact that those three people claimed vanilla to me means very little. If we want to examine the fact that they decided to claim a side, or claimed a previous role, I find that very useful information. But i don't see any reason to expect it's "safer" to vote these folks because they claimed vanilla.

Third, I do think it's useful to consider who claimed a previous role and who did not, and if those claims hold up. This is what I'm looking at right now.

[Autumn]

so if CR went from bad to good then its a solid assumption the entire game just flipped around. Which means a good guy or two are now on the evil side of things.

On day one (or two) I thought Brittrock was a good guy and even had him followed since that was my skill. Unfortunately I lost that skill and learned nothing from it as I am now a vanilla wolf.

Following that logic

vote brittrock

This is an example of a reveal that I don't think helps us, as it outs a role that previously may or may not have been in the original role set. However, it ironically makes me feel better about LSG because if she had swapped to a bad guy role, she'd keep that info to her bad guy team.

On the other hand, voting people we think were good D1 on the assumption they've flipped sides I don't think is a strategy.

[RendeR]

All I can see is a whollllllee lot of bullshit being slung around here today.....


We can't all be vanilla wolves.

[Autumn]

How is that different than any day though? Doesn't everyone check in every normal game by saying, "regular old villager here" ...

[Autumn]

To me what's interesting is what they claim to have been in the past.

[Telle]

Second, you're saying "we're not hitting a seer or lookout" as if it is possible anyone was going to come out and claim they had a good guy role. Teh fact that those three people claimed vanilla to me means very little. If we want to examine the fact that they decided to claim a side, or claimed a previous role, I find that very useful information. But i don't see any reason to expect it's "safer" to vote these folks because they claimed vanilla.

Very much in agreement here. If someone has a special good guy role, they can't publicly say that. That would just be giving the bad guys an easy target for a night kill! Assuming there is a night kill.. this game has been so weird already, it's not outside the realm of possibility that that's different too.

[GoldenEagle]

Vote GoldenEagle

GE - as you claimed seer before the switch, maybe you could tell us who you were planning to look at N1 and why?

I had planned to scan CR and if he is telling the truth, he would have came back as a villager. The reason I chose CR is because I think he is very influential and I wanted to know where he was at.

The post-analysis of this game is going to be crazy.

[GoldenEagle]

VOTE CHEIF RUM

Two reasons:
1. The fact that no else has claimed they switched sides.
2. He set on his vote at deadline and didn't anything. That essentially became a wasted vote. We can say the same for LSG.

Furthermore, if CR was a villager, it implies that the villagers do not know who each other are. I guess that is possible. Maybe the villagers have to unlock some sort of condition to get to communicate. Either way, it smells funny.

[bhlloy]

Very much in agreement here. If someone has a special good guy role, they can't publicly say that. That would just be giving the bad guys an easy target for a night kill! Assuming there is a night kill.. this game has been so weird already, it's not outside the realm of possibility that that's different too.

In which case why claim villager at all in a game with potentially three teams and mechanics we don’t really understand? It’s not a smart decision and I still strongly suspect there’s a baddie or two in there.

I can respect Autumns reveal somewhat as he did give info on confirming a previous role, but as he’s now got a target on his back I still wouldn’t have done it. We also don’t know that all the n1 roles are even still in the game so the info he revealed for might not even help us.

[bhlloy]

Ugh, I said villager again when I mean goodie. Force of habit.

[timmae]

Remember, no confirmed sources for vampire sightings yet. That's not to say they aren't in there but just that we have had wolf (obviously), villager and recently converted wolf claims. We may or may not have had a full restart with all roles opened back up between D1 and D2. At some point we can start assembling better possibilities as to what roles may be present.

Thus we also do not know exact night actions as EF was so nice in providing the list with the following caveat, "if the associated roles exist".

[timmae]

And... do we know if the killed player roles will be exposed after night actions?

[Telle]

In which case why claim villager at all in a game with potentially three teams and mechanics we don’t really understand? It’s not a smart decision and I still strongly suspect there’s a baddie or two in there.

Because this is werewolf and everyone's paranoid and paranoid about everyone else being paranoid? I don't think it's uncommon in these games to proclaim oneself a good guy. Obviously doesn't mean anything though since the bad guys will say the same thing. So not really much there to go on.. but if this is almost like a redo of Day 1 then we don't have much to go on beyond that either.

[timmae]

Just reread D1a (and D1b) to get any insight into Chief's claim and who he may have been a villager with and the interactions with Henry seem to indicate a pattern where the two may have been working together. Chief sits votes bhlloy and then switches to henry late in D1a. Only others on henry were autumn and me. Then D1b when henry gets voted up 4-2-2 chief evens it out 3-3-2. Henry then starts a run on telle. If chief flipped to wolf then odds may say henry is still a baddie. I am not sure he would vote chief like he did D2 but still worth tracking maybe.

[Telle]

And... do we know if the killed player roles will be exposed after night actions?

At this point I feel safe in saying that unless EF stated a rule clearly, we can make absolutely no assumptions about the game mechanics. This seems to be anything but a normal werewolf game, which is just so much fun for our first game back after eons of no play! :) </sarcasm>

[Telle]

It's easy enough to test Chief's statement of previously being a villager. He has to supply us a list of his original fellow villager(s). Then we see if they confirm that or not. If not then we've identified a small group where at least one person is lying, and that's a good place to start.

[timmae]

Are we willing to put any stock into probability exercises at this point???

[GoldenEagle]

My assumption is that if CR is telling the truth (a big IF....) that he didn't know who the other villagers were or if he did all those roles have switched to.

[Chief Rum]

That is why I said implied. Probably insinuated is a better word. I'm not sure yet if I believe you based on what I know.

What do you know haha?

[Chief Rum]

So was RendeR a villager before too?? I'm 99% certain, but there's always room for doubt in my brain...

I'm not outing anyone out unless they do it thenselves. It's not going to help the current villagers to know there were previous villagers. They know that. It could help the villagers if they know how many there were, allowing them to have information on the game we don't have. They would then know if it's the same number of villagers as before.

[Chief Rum]

So, I apologize for creating the tie that caused this mess. As a true data geek, I am cringing at what happened. I could not even imagine EF would get anywhere near THIS creative. I just assumed that I should not let a good guy die (me) if I could avoid it at all. And yes, I still am a good guy.. just not quite the same as before.

i wouldn't sweat it. If I was good, I would have risked the tie too.

[timmae]

My assumption is that if CR is telling the truth (a big IF....) that he didn't know who the other villagers were or if he did all those roles have switched to.

The villagers or vamps would almost certainly know each other wouldn't they though? I guess whichever of the two is assuming the typical wolf role. It is certainly possible that all bad roles have switched to good roles but not very likely.

[EagleFan]

As of Post 396:

Chief Rum 2 - henry296 (371), GoldenEagle (382)
LoneStarGirl 1 - timmae (352)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)
GoldenEagle 1 - bhlloy (374)

[Chief Rum]

Chief, what is your understanding then of why there was no night kill?

I am merely guessing here, but I would suppose it is because the lynch happened first. The tie triggered the re-role, or whatever it is, and EF wouldn't then turn around and ask newly made baddies or good guy roles to make decisions on no information. No night kill because the game reset meant no night actions for anyone.

FTR, you were our target. We decided you were a combination of dangerous but playing too quiet to likely be protected.

[EagleFan]

We can't all be vanilla wolves.

I like it... a tie mechanism for a future game...

[Chief Rum]

VOTE CHEIF RUM

Two reasons:
1. The fact that no else has claimed they switched sides.
2. He set on his vote at deadline and didn't anything. That essentially became a wasted vote. We can say the same for LSG.

Furthermore, if CR was a villager, it implies that the villagers do not know who each other are. I guess that is possible. Maybe the villagers have to unlock some sort of condition to get to communicate. Either way, it smells funny.

Better reread the lengthy Day 1. In neither case did I make a deadline vote. And in the tie vote, I made my vote hours before, and well before the whole run on Telle happened.

Not really going to argue the whys of my votes, as I was a villager then and I have my reasons, which now no longer matter.

Good call though to scan me. That would have worked out well for you.

[timmae]

Did GE claim seer D1a/b and his scan?

[Chief Rum]

Just reread D1a (and D1b) to get any insight into Chief's claim and who he may have been a villager with and the interactions with Henry seem to indicate a pattern where the two may have been working together. Chief sits votes bhlloy and then switches to henry late in D1a. Only others on henry were autumn and me. Then D1b when henry gets voted up 4-2-2 chief evens it out 3-3-2. Henry then starts a run on telle. If chief flipped to wolf then odds may say henry is still a baddie. I am not sure he would vote chief like he did D2 but still worth tracking maybe.

In the first vote, bhlloy was a runaway vote leader as an inactive player. I wanted more conversation (and said so in my change of vote post). "Only others on henry" implies that it was a throwaway vote. Henry was actually the second leading votegetter, and it moved him into a tie with bhlloy. Also I would argue "late" on that one. I made that vote switch more than an hour before deadline as I recall.

Ironically, the D1b vote was similar for me. I wanted a closer vote, so I flipped off of henry to Render. The Telle run came out of nowhere from my perspective. I don't think she had a single vote when I switched on D1b.

As a villager, I wanted close votes and to hide in the confusion. Runaway votes don't really help "villagers" once roles start to come out.

[Chief Rum]

Did GE claim seer D1a/b and his scan?

Yes. He said he was going to scan me.

Assuming he's telling the truth of course. Note, his previous role reveal came before mine, so he might be using my reveal to build trust himself. Heck, even if he was indeed the seer before, he could be a villager now.

[Chief Rum]

Yes. He said he was going to scan me.

Assuming he's telling the truth of course. Note, his previous role reveal came before mine, so he might be using my reveal to build trust himself. Heck, even if he was indeed the seer before, he could be a villager now.

Correction, his previous role came AFTER mine, not before.

*forehead slap

[Chief Rum]

Previous role reveal.

Wow.

:banghead:

[bhlloy]

I see a couple of posts saying it's important whether CR was telling the truth about being a villager (baddie) yesterday and trying to figure out who else was to see whether he was lying - is it remotely relevant and why do we think he would lie considering it could easily be disproved for no disadvantage for the player who disproved it?

The assumption I guess is that everybody switched teams, but assuming the teams weren't equal to start with that can't be a valid assumption anyway.

I'm not sure it matters what people were yesterday. What they are today is more important, and we still have people who claimed good team for no apparent reason and probably at least one more vanilla goodie than is actually out there. Unless I'm missing something with the latest round of questioning. Seems to me like we're back at another day 1, except for some reason a bunch of people decided to reveal so we have a good place to start.

[bhlloy]

Heck, even if he was indeed the seer before, he could be a villager now.

Right - no matter what people were before they could presumably be anything now. I asked GE about his scan just because I was interested in getting in his head and seeing if we could shake something loose, but realistically I believe he was the seer, there's no point or advantage in him lying about it.

[Autumn]

In the first vote, bhlloy was a runaway vote leader as an inactive player. I wanted more conversation (and said so in my change of vote post). "Only others on henry" implies that it was a throwaway vote. Henry was actually the second leading votegetter, and it moved him into a tie with bhlloy. Also I would argue "late" on that one. I made that vote switch more than an hour before deadline as I recall.

Ironically, the D1b vote was similar for me. I wanted a closer vote, so I flipped off of henry to Render. The Telle run came out of nowhere from my perspective. I don't think she had a single vote when I switched on D1b.

As a villager, I wanted close votes and to hide in the confusion. Runaway votes don't really help "villagers" once roles start to come out.

This is the crazy world that we're in now where supposed good guy Chief is now defending the vote history of bad guy Chief. It's odd that you're attempting to make your votes seem reasonable when you acknowledge you were a bad guy at the time. I assume you dispute the theory that you were helping Henry, yet you don't say so here. Were you, as a bad guy at the time, trying to defend Henry-at-the-time?

I don't see a real reason to be cagey about your time as a bad guy. The new bad guys are aware of how many of them there are, but the good guys are in the dark. The new bad guys can share with each other what their previous roles were, so they know how many switched sides. The good guys knowing who was working against the good guys in the previous timeline helps make sense of what was happening in thread. The good guys having a better idea of how many bad guys there are in the game helps the good guys. The argument that somehow we're giving info to the bad guys if the previous iteration of bad guys is revealed seems iffy. No one, including presumably Chief's fellow ex-villagers, know if there are other bad guys in the game. And no one at all knows what roles people have been re-assigned to, so nothing revealed about the past timeline reveals anything to the bad guys about the new one. Presumably every single person in game will claim that they are now a good guy.

All that to say, I find it odd that Chief, a very clever player, would not take advantage of his sudden switch to empower the good guys. I think we have to consider the idea that he claimed to have changed sides but did not, and is being careful to not say too much to back himself into a corner.

vote Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

This is the crazy world that we're in now where supposed good guy Chief is now defending the vote history of bad guy Chief. It's odd that you're attempting to make your votes seem reasonable when you acknowledge you were a bad guy at the time. I assume you dispute the theory that you were helping Henry, yet you don't say so here. Were you, as a bad guy at the time, trying to defend Henry-at-the-time?

I don't see a real reason to be cagey about your time as a bad guy. The new bad guys are aware of how many of them there are, but the good guys are in the dark. The new bad guys can share with each other what their previous roles were, so they know how many switched sides. The good guys knowing who was working against the good guys in the previous timeline helps make sense of what was happening in thread. The good guys having a better idea of how many bad guys there are in the game helps the good guys. The argument that somehow we're giving info to the bad guys if the previous iteration of bad guys is revealed seems iffy. No one, including presumably Chief's fellow ex-villagers, know if there are other bad guys in the game. And no one at all knows what roles people have been re-assigned to, so nothing revealed about the past timeline reveals anything to the bad guys about the new one. Presumably every single person in game will claim that they are now a good guy.

All that to say, I find it odd that Chief, a very clever player, would not take advantage of his sudden switch to empower the good guys. I think we have to consider the idea that he claimed to have changed sides but did not, and is being careful to not say too much to back himself into a corner.

vote Chief Rum

That's a rather bold and long diatribe to justify a vote on me.

I have been honest and forthcoming, holding back only on baddie information that I think might help the new bad side.

You and I seem to have a fundamental disagreement on the value of that information. I think whether or not this game is a complete re-roll, with new roles not in the first iteration, is important information for the new bad guys as they may hold previous roles they can then feel fairly confident about what other roles are in the game.

That is why I'm being cagey. You disagree. I'll tell you now, killing me won't get you a villager. It will just waste a day.

[Telle]

It's also entirely within the realm of possibility that some people have switched from one kind of baddie to the other kind. Maybe Chief was a villager before and isn't now, but that doesn't necessarily make him a wolf.

vote Chief Rum

[Telle]

And sorry to vote and run, but I gotta go cook dinner. I should be back well before deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Also, I find different temperaments from one day to the next to be curious.

Autumn, you were barely around for two days while you were the claimed contained wolf. Now, you're around a lot. Perhaps you have a good guy role now, but if so, you're being rather forward with your business if you are.

You were the first to come out with your previous role and you have been on the attack from the start of Day 2.

That seems silly if you're an important role, and you're no5 dtupid. To me, that means you are a vanilla wolf (which you sorta denied) or you're not a good role or a vanilla wolf. I don't like the options you have left.

It makes me wonder if a bold and smart player would come completely change around his play like this. Autumn is a bild and smart player.

Other temperament changes I am noticing. GE is around more. Telle has dialed it back some.

[Autumn]

That seems a bit overblown. I posted once at 4:30, and was able to post a bunch of times around noon, and that's it. I posted my reveal after deadline and then went to bed.

That said, I certainly am feeling more engaged now--as the newly converted werewolf, my win condition just involved making it to the end of the game. I therefore hung back a bit in thread as I know posting a lot is a great way to become a target. Now I don't have to worry about that.

[Chief Rum]

To clarify that second to last paragraph, it makes me wonder if a bold and smart VILLAGER would make this play. I think Autumn is the kind of player who would.

Also, I am brought to mind looking at his long vote post oneme, "Thou dost protest too much."

[bhlloy]

I think that’s actually solid logic CR, looking at how people have posted pre and post switch. I’d add that while I was and remain suspicious of LSG, she is playing the exact same game as far as I can see.

Autumn still is my “most likely to be good” of the early reveals. It’s a hella ballsy move by a bad guy to come out and be the first to reveal like that. Although if bad guys can communicate maybe it’s a plan they came up with and if they got into trouble with it to reinforce among themselves in thread... hmmm. Autumn is a good enough player to pull that off.

[Chief Rum]

That seems a bit overblown. I posted once at 4:30, and was able to post a bunch of times around noon, and that's it. I posted my reveal after deadline and then went to bed.

That said, I certainly am feeling more engaged now--as the newly converted werewolf, my win condition just involved making it to the end of the game. I therefore hung back a bit in thread as I know posting a lot is a great way to become a target. Now I don't have to worry about that.

So, you're claiming you still have your old role, merely converted, rather than just being assigned a vanilla wolf role?

That runs contrary to everyone else so far. Are you the only one who kept your role then? And if no other night actions were processed, how did the one that converted you go through?

This stinks. I'm not buying it.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Autumn]

You're coming on pretty strong, Chief.

Now, my old role was called "newly converted werewolf".

[Chief Rum]

You're coming on pretty strong, Chief.

Now, my old role was called "newly converted werewolf".

Lol.. hey pot! I'm kettle.

This is the crazy world that we're in now where supposed good guy Chief is now defending the vote history of bad guy Chief. It's odd that you're attempting to make your votes seem reasonable when you acknowledge you were a bad guy at the time. I assume you dispute the theory that you were helping Henry, yet you don't say so here. Were you, as a bad guy at the time, trying to defend Henry-at-the-time?

I don't see a real reason to be cagey about your time as a bad guy. The new bad guys are aware of how many of them there are, but the good guys are in the dark. The new bad guys can share with each other what their previous roles were, so they know how many switched sides. The good guys knowing who was working against the good guys in the previous timeline helps make sense of what was happening in thread. The good guys having a better idea of how many bad guys there are in the game helps the good guys. The argument that somehow we're giving info to the bad guys if the previous iteration of bad guys is revealed seems iffy. No one, including presumably Chief's fellow ex-villagers, know if there are other bad guys in the game. And no one at all knows what roles people have been re-assigned to, so nothing revealed about the past timeline reveals anything to the bad guys about the new one. Presumably every single person in game will claim that they are now a good guy.

All that to say, I find it odd that Chief, a very clever player, would not take advantage of his sudden switch to empower the good guys. I think we have to consider the idea that he claimed to have changed sides but did not, and is being careful to not say too much to back himself into a corner.

vote Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

And again, I want you to be absolutely clear. You are claiming you are still your old role, just merely fully converted now. You did NOT receive a change role. Your role changed as a result of a night action on a night when no othe rnight actions appear to have occurred?

Do I understand that right?

[Autumn]

No, I"m not sure how I gave you that impression. Go back and read my original post. My original role was the "newly converted werewolf". It's a neutral role. I'm now a regular wolf on the wolf team, due to the tie debacle.

[Chief Rum]

If the village thinks it is best for me to reveal the rest of the information I know from when I was a villager, I will. I think it's better kept under wraps because it gives too much old game info to the new villagers.

But if the choice is to reveal that to keep you all from lynching a vanilla wolf, and wasting a day which will likely only go 3-4 more days at best, then I will.

I'll let a couple hours pass and see what everyone thinks.

[Chief Rum]

That seems a bit overblown. I posted once at 4:30, and was able to post a bunch of times around noon, and that's it. I posted my reveal after deadline and then went to bed.

That said, I certainly am feeling more engaged now--as the newly converted werewolf, my win condition just involved making it to the end of the game. I therefore hung back a bit in thread as I know posting a lot is a great way to become a target. Now I don't have to worry about that.

Okay, I did misread. My apologies. You are correct, and have been consistent with your reveal. The wording was a bit confusing, but I should have paid closer attention.

This doesn't mean you're not a villager now, but you shouldn't get any flack for this part.

UNVOTE AUTUMN

[Chief Rum]

You're still absolutely wrong about me though. If I was a villager now, why would I have revealed my old allegiance in the first place?

I did that to help the village. And you want to hang me for it.

[bhlloy]

I think you should use your best judgement about whether there’s anything in there that could be detrimental to the good guys, but also I don’t know if it really changes much because just because you can prove you were bad yesterday doesn’t necessarily mean you have to be good today?

[Autumn]

Your choice of what to reveal is a part of my reasoning for my vote, but to be fair, no one else mentioned it before me, so I'm not sure it's THE reason why you are in the lead.

[bhlloy]

I’m not sure I really follow your logic there Autumn. If he’s bad, why does the reveal that he was bad yesterday matter? He’s either telling the truth, or he’s lying - doesn’t seem to be much upside if he’s telling the truth and if he’s lying there’s a ton of downside, because he can be counterclaimed on that role with no impact on the person who actually had it and then he’s done for.

[Chief Rum]

Your choice of what to reveal is a part of my reasoning for my vote, but to be fair, no one else mentioned it before me, so I'm not sure it's THE reason why you are in the lead.

No, the reason is you guys are grasping at straws and you want to vote out an old villager, who is not a no power wolf. The good guys want to hang me because they don't have enough information and they would rather be lazy thinking about it and just hang the old villager. The bad guys are loving it because they can hide their votes amongst the wolf numbskull voters.

[Chief Rum]

Who is NOW a no power wolf.

I really need to start proofreading my posts.

[Chief Rum]

Speaking of attitude transitions, henry has gotten a lot more quiet.

Render is still quiet. His approach hasn't changed.

[timmae]

The reason I was questioning the chief and henry relationship was to put pressure on opening up discussion. We need to talk in order to create a basis for future investigation. I honestly don't care that chief was a villager, I do care what that could mean for who may still be a villager. I don't believe probabilities should be our sole reason for a vote but it could be a starting point when we have not a lot of other information.

I agree on those who have been eerily quiet... both D1a/D1b and D2. Speak up people... my vote will likely be in that pool (which is where it currently sits). We don't have much to go on for a few people yet!!

[timmae]

Right now my gut tells me autumn and chief are wolves of some kind. RendeR questioning was ok. GE was at least around and read ok. Maybe ok on bhlloy.

Henry, lsg, telle and brit maybe questionable.

[LoneStarGirl]

This is how I understood it as well since my action didn't go through.

I am merely guessing here, but I would suppose it is because the lynch happened first. The tie triggered the re-role, or whatever it is, and EF wouldn't then turn around and ask newly made baddies or good guy roles to make decisions on no information. No night kill because the game reset meant no night actions for anyone.

FTR, you were our target. We decided you were a combination of dangerous but playing too quiet to likely be protected.

[LoneStarGirl]

Other temperament changes I am noticing. GE is around more. Telle has dialed it back some.

I was going to make the same comment. Telle was a fireball the first two hours and now she is acting more like.... me.

Does that mean she was a baddie defending her honor vehemently to prevent being killed and now she is a goodie and can relax?

Or is she bad now and wanting to keep out of the limelight?

[LoneStarGirl]

I don't have an exact vote count and I dont want a run away vote for CR'

vote Telle

She had a lot of momentum towards the end of night 1 and then a tie happened. I think she is relieved the pressure faded away so she has stopped participating as much.

[Chief Rum]

Correction, his previous role came AFTER mine, not before.

*forehead slap

This is going back a bit, but just want to say I also misread GE's original post coming out with his previous role, which immediately followed Autumn's post coming out of the deadline. He actually revealed the wolf seer reveal in the post before mine.

A frightening idea occurred to me as I was looking over all of the vanilla reveals. It seems unlikely, but... what if we're all telling the truth?

As in, all roles have been removed. There are still villagers because the game would be over otherwise, but what if the punishment is there are no extra roles?

[britrock88]

I'm not sure it matters what people were yesterday. What they are today is more important, and we still have people who claimed good team for no apparent reason and probably at least one more vanilla goodie than is actually out there. Unless I'm missing something with the latest round of questioning. Seems to me like we're back at another day 1, except for some reason a bunch of people decided to reveal so we have a good place to start.

This may be the most concise summary of where I think we are from a player-reading perspective.

The game setup perspective is something else. Trying to recall what we've seen for D1A roles, we have... a recently converted wolf (N), a seer, a town watch, and a villager. (Did CR specify vanillager or brutal villager?)

[britrock88]

Updating a vote tally... but a leading thought: we haven't seen nearly as much action on the voting front today. Part of that is explainable because D1A was two days long, though.

[britrock88]

As of Post 396:

Chief Rum 2 - henry296 (371), GoldenEagle (382)
LoneStarGirl 1 - timmae (352)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)
GoldenEagle 1 - bhlloy (374)

vote Chief Rum

vote Chief Rum

VOTE AUTUMN

UNVOTE AUTUMN

vote Telle

Chief Rum 4 - henry296 (371), GoldenEagle (382), Autumn (408), Telle (410)
LoneStarGirl 1 - timmae (352)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)
GoldenEagle 1 - bhlloy (374)

Yet to vote: britrock, CR, render

I don't think LSG's latest vote is legal because she has a vote sitting on me.

[Chief Rum]

I'm holding my vote to see if another candidate emerges, of course.

[britrock88]

I agree with LSG's rationale to avoid a runaway vote, but am puzzled at the misfire on the revote. Based on nothing more than that and the fact that she's one of two players other than myself that I can vote to within 2 of CR...

VOTE LoneStarGirl

[britrock88]

I'm holding my vote to see if another candidate emerges, of course.

Right, and "yet to vote" doesn't give any credit for your level of engagement or the move on/off Autumn. Maybe not the most precise phrase.

[bhlloy]

I'm down with pushing a second candidate at this time. I'm pretty happy with any of the 4 who came right out and claimed villager being up today

Unvote GoldenEagle
Vote LoneStarGirl

[bhlloy]

This is going back a bit, but just want to say I also misread GE's original post coming out with his previous role, which immediately followed Autumn's post coming out of the deadline. He actually revealed the wolf seer reveal in the post before mine.

A frightening idea occurred to me as I was looking over all of the vanilla reveals. It seems unlikely, but... what if we're all telling the truth?

As in, all roles have been removed. There are still villagers because the game would be over otherwise, but what if the punishment is there are no extra roles?

Didn't Autumn say he wasn't vanilla? And I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't fishing for another role reveal here, but that might be a baddie play if you think you are going down tonight.

[Chief Rum]

Didn't Autumn say he wasn't vanilla? And I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't fishing for another role reveal here, but that might be a baddie play if you think you are going down tonight.

No he just said he was a wolf. And if I recall correctly, it was Autumn who later countered someone saying all the reveals were for vanilla wolves, pointing out that he hadn't. He simply stated that he was a Wolf.

[britrock88]

No he just said he was a wolf. And if I recall correctly, it was Autumn who later countered someone saying all the reveals were for vanilla wolves, pointing out that he hadn't. He simply stated that he was a Wolf.

Concur with this. We're all attempting to read between the lines...

[Autumn]

I am still happy to put pressure on Chief Rum, who I have questions about. I don't see any reason to move to LoneStarGirl, and wonder about those votes. Quiet night, I'd love to see more votes and some more reasoning for them.

[henry296]

Sorry I got a little quiet, busy afternoon at work and then had dinner, went for a walk and got consumed by recruiting.

Throughout the day, I’m starting to question my own theory in Chief Rum. If he was bad, I don’t think this play was good as it would draw suspicion just like it did. With autumn somewhat changing sides maybe a complete reset is possible even though I didn’t. However, that theory means that today is essentially day 1C.

unvote Chief Rum

[henry296]

I think voting for people who gave us some information provides more information that voting for someone who is keeping their previous role quiet.

vote LoneStarGirl

[Autumn]

As in, if she's bad, we'll know not to necessarily believe her previous role?

[timmae]

I didnt like lsg's D1 with votes on bhlloy and then landing with chief. Not much to say D1 or D2 and claimed vanilla wolf a few times D2. Seems like too much of a reminder that she is just a vanilla wolf. Need some pressure here.

[Autumn]

Heading out to hang with my kid. May not make it back for deadline.

[timmae]

RendeR... we need more from you dude. Some random vanilla comment and a throwaway crap comment isn't gonna win you any points for D1b.

[bhlloy]

Yeah I haven't been comfortable with LSG all game, but paradoxically that makes me trust her a little more, because it's unlikely she's been bad both days. I guess with 3 teams and 6 bad roles in the description it could be about 50/50 shot each time that you end up on the bad side.

[Telle]

Ok, I'm back. Later than I expected.. kiddos decided it should be "family game night". Need to get them playing werewolf ;)

[timmae]

Did you cage RendeR?!

[Telle]

Did you cage RendeR?!

He's still running about trying to remember what he was looking for :)

[britrock88]

High time for another vote tally update.

[Telle]

High time for another vote tally update.

Working on it!

[Chief Rum]

Looks like it is 4-3-1 LSG.

Time for me to put in my self protection vote. FTR, I actually do not get a "village vibe" from LSG.

VOTE LONE STAR GIRL

[Telle]

As of #458

Chief Rum 3 - GoldenEagle (382), Autumn (408), Telle (410)
LoneStarGirl 4 - timmae (352), britrock88 (440), bhlloy (442), henry296 (448)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)

Yet to vote: Chief Rum, RendeR

[britrock88]

Chief Rum 4 - henry296 (371), GoldenEagle (382), Autumn (408), Telle (410)
LoneStarGirl 1 - timmae (352)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)
GoldenEagle 1 - bhlloy (374)

Yet to vote: britrock, CR, render

I don't think LSG's latest vote is legal because she has a vote sitting on me.

VOTE LoneStarGirl

Unvote GoldenEagle
Vote LoneStarGirl

unvote Chief Rum

vote LoneStarGirl

LoneStarGirl 4 - timmae (352), britrock88 (???), bhlloy (???), henry296 (???)
Chief Rum 3 - GoldenEagle (382), Autumn (408), Telle (410)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)
GoldenEagle 1 - bhlloy (374)

Yet to vote: CR, render

LSG with a vote hanging out there that probably isn't legal, but CR can defend himself at any rate.

Sorry I didn't record the post numbers this go-round.

[britrock88]

LoneStarGirl 4 - timmae (352), britrock88 (???), bhlloy (???), henry296 (???)
Chief Rum 3 - GoldenEagle (382), Autumn (408), Telle (410)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)
GoldenEagle 1 - bhlloy (374)

Yet to vote: CR, render

LSG with a vote hanging out there that probably isn't legal, but CR can defend himself at any rate.

Sorry I didn't record the post numbers this go-round.

Oy. Not only did Telle beat me to it, she was more accurate.

[RendeR]

RendeR... we need more from you dude. Some random vanilla comment and a throwaway crap comment isn't gonna win you any points for D1b.


Sorry folks, I had to go out to do the monthly shopping this morning so I slept most of the day (I work nights), then dinner and a game of Power Grid with teh family. I'm here now, what do we know or need to know?

I really dislike runaway votes on day 1, and trust me this is just day 1, yesterday's nonsense is worthless thanks to the tie result.

Ok, I'm back. Later than I expected.. kiddos decided it should be "family game night". Need to get them playing werewolf ;)

My son doth protest too much as he plays and then ends up winning by a good margin....gotta watch that boy.

Did you cage RendeR?!

Nobody Cages Da RendeR

He's still running about trying to remember what he was looking for :)

I found them! forgot my shoes, thrice.....

[Telle]

So with Chief's vote in #459, we have 5 on LoneStarGirl, 3 on Chief, then there's three single votes, and one yet to vote at all.

[RendeR]

I think my question at this stage is, Do we really want to end up in another tie?

The reset last night was, annoying, but not overly harmful....I'm not betting that we can expect that kind of nicety a second time....

[Telle]

No! No more ties! I've already apologized for the last one :)

But at this point it's 5 to 3 with four votes that could be moving to either... and there's still more than a half hour to deadline so who knows what the heck we'll end up doing by then :)

[RendeR]

hrm, odd thing is I'm not getting a good vibe from anyone right now...too many people claiming to be goodie goodies.

I should have put on my waders....

my vote is on hold until 9:50

[Telle]

my vote is on hold until 9:50

Gonna set a timer? ;)

[LoneStarGirl]

Vote ChiefRum

[britrock88]

I think my question at this stage is, Do we really want to end up in another tie?

The reset last night was, annoying, but not overly harmful....I'm not betting that we can expect that kind of nicety a second time....

If LSG self-defends, it's 5-4 and you hold the power to tie it. :devil:

[LoneStarGirl]

unvote bitrock88

Sorry EF! still getting the hang of the rules

[britrock88]

Vote ChiefRum

This may suffice, but I haven't counted your subsequent votes because you never unvoted me. That would be the prudent course of action.

[britrock88]

Great cross-talk, britrock. You got the hang of it, LSG!

[LoneStarGirl]

Great cross-talk, britrock. You got the hang of it, LSG!


I have also been drinking... it affects the memory I hear

[Chief Rum]

unvote bitrock88

Sorry EF! still getting the hang of the rules

You should probably unvote Telle, too, to be clear.

[RendeR]

Would it be bad to get a glass of my new single malt scotch while working?

[Chief Rum]

Okay, I am going to get this info out now, since if I am lynched I won't be able to anymore.

I was one of two villagers. The other one was Render (good call, Telle).

I was the brutal villager.

We could communicate with each other, but we did not have any knowledge about other baddies. We were (and still are) in the dark on whether vampires or the Count are in the game.

When roles changed last night, I lost the ability to communicate with Render. I have no idea what his allegiance is now.

[LoneStarGirl]

So who have I voted for at this point? everyone? Should I unvote everyone?

unvote telle

I assume my vote for Chief Rum still stands but if not

vote Chief Rum

[Telle]

So it's now 5 on LoneStarGirl and 4 on Chief Rum. The only vote remaining is RendeR's.

Honey, please do not make the same mistake I did and cause a tie :)

[Chief Rum]

So who have I voted for at this point? everyone? Should I unvote everyone?

unvote telle

I assume my vote for Chief Rum still stands but if not

vote Chief Rum

Yup, that should work.

LSG, as I said before, I don't currently get a bad vibe from you, but we're in this spot. I hope you're a bad guy because I am not. I suspect we're both goodies, though.

[RendeR]

Its different tonight though, I'm not facing death so my vote either causes another tie, creates a definitive lynch or gets wasted on a throwaway vote because I have no real info to on.

[Autumn]

RendeR, thoughts on Chief's claim?

[RendeR]

From what I knew before and what I know now, I wouldn't trust Chief, or pretty much anyone, that said, I'm not feeling that Chief is a baddie tonight. He just kind of got jumped on.

That said, I don't like the pile on LSG either, she's literally said and done nothing to make it a worthy vote, and she's historically a quiet player until more is known.

[Telle]

As of #482:
5 LoneStarGirl - timmae (352), britrock88 (440), bhlloy (442), henry296 (448), Chief Rum (459)
3 Chief Rum - GoldenEagle (382), Autumn (408), Telle (410), LoneStarGirl (478)

Yet to vote: RendeR

[timmae]

Reread henry296's D2 and not liking it.

Unvote lonestargirl

Vote henry296

[bhlloy]

Some good info in there and I don’t see any reason for CR to lie. Also doesn’t really make any major difference to today’s vote as far as I can see

[Telle]

Unusual move by timmae with less than 15 minutes to go. To be clear, we now have a tie.

[Autumn]

From what I knew before and what I know now, I wouldn't trust Chief, or pretty much anyone, that said, I'm not feeling that Chief is a baddie tonight. He just kind of got jumped on.

That said, I don't like the pile on LSG either, she's literally said and done nothing to make it a worthy vote, and she's historically a quiet player until more is known.

Is this an answer to my question?

[timmae]

I dont like the others who are voting lsg. My key likes are on chief who just came clean. Lets see what happens

[RendeR]

Is this an answer to my question?

Yes, sorry, I need to quote properly.

[RendeR]

Vote Count?

[timmae]

Hey render.. is chief legit in his statement on D1 roles?

[Autumn]

I don't get the caginess from you guys. Revealing what team you were on yesterday tells us nothing about your role today ... presumably. But I'm beginning to wonder.

[britrock88]

Reread henry296's D2 and not liking it.

Unvote lonestargirl

Vote henry296

Hrm?

4-4-1.

[Telle]

Vote Count?

TIED between LSG and Chief. You have the lone remaining vote.

[RendeR]

Hey render.. is chief legit in his statement on D1 roles?


From what little I know, yes, I believe he is being truthful.

[britrock88]

RendeR as kingmaker, potentially.

[GoldenEagle]

I am thinking now that my night 1 scan of a villager triggered all this and not the tie on D1. If there were only 2 baddies and hit one on n1, it is really not fair .

[britrock88]

From what little I know

The simple fact that you two were a village team on D1? And probably had some chatter and decided on a night action of some sort?

[Chief Rum]

It's 4-4 me and LSG, with you yet to vote. timmae has a standalone vote on henry.