Injuries and the 4000+ yard passing issues.

[Ben E Lou]

Well, it is pretty clear that injuries, set at 100, are unrealistically low, which is what most people apparently want. However, I'm wondering if it is the low injuries that are resulting in the high passing yardage totals. Someone else pointed this out, but at 100, too many QB's are starting 16 games. I count 13 QB's who started 16 games in the NFL last year. Here are the numbers for the four years of my career with injuries set at 100.

2003: 25, 13 >4000 yards
2004: 27, 10 >4000 yards
2005: 25, 13 >4000 yards
2006: 22, 09 >4000 yards

So, I'm averaging 24.75 QB's per season starting all 16 games, and 11.25 passing for >4000 yards. Granted, the 45.4% ratio is higher than the 30.8% ratio in the 2002 NFL. I wonder if the difference is that our FOF QB's are getting to throw to top-of-the-line wide receivers more often now because of the reduced injuries.

It seems odd that a game engine that up to now has produced very accurate stats would suddenly get out of whack. I wonder if too many good QB's and WR's are getting to play too many games.

[Ben E Lou]

While I was typing the above post, I did a run of the 2003 season with injuries set to 200. 21 QB's played 16 games, but only 6 threw for 4000+ yards. Gonna run a few more tests on this...

[cthomer5000]

speak for yourself - I'm getting plenty of injuries at the 100 setting (every season). My top RB has gone down 3 years in a row to a season-ending injury, my linebackers have had serious injury issues, and I can't keep my starting tackles healthy. Aside from that I also have plenty of minor injuries.

If anything, I was thinking the injuries where a bit high at 100.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by SkyDog
While I was typing the above post, I did a run of the 2003 season with injuries set to 200. 21 QB's played 16 games, but only 6 threw for 4000+ yards. Gonna run a few more tests on this...

and for reference, there were 4 4,000 QB's in the NFL last year, with 3 or 4 very close behind.

[Ben E Lou]

Link (http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=16762)

Check out my post in the thread linked to above, and check out the link in that thread to the current NFL injury report. It is my contention that while gamers may not LIKE the number of injuries in the game, the FOF injured list is still quite a bit lower than the real-life one.

[cody8200]

I dont think it has to do with injuries. Real players are set up in the real player file as having too much potential and being too good I think. Check and see which of these players are still real players and which are game generated players. In my game Carson Palmer and David Carr and Harrington are all 3 absolutely MAXED out to 100 in nearly all of the categories. That's why their stats are so high, not because of injuries( althought that may have something to do with it). For computer generated players ( I have one of the leagues best QB's) and he rarely gets over 3700 yards ina season. I'm in year 2009(4 games in) by the way. Heres my career leaders in passing.

name gp gs yards

Carson Palmer 98 98 29156
David Carr 100 100 28471
Kerry Collins 100 100 27759
Tom Brady 98 98 27579
Trent Green 100 100 26821


now for number 24th in all time yards but first place when considering computer generated QB's , the first overall pick in 2004(my QB)

Will Snell 84 84 19377 (has hit 3950) but never had a year over 4000 yet

[cody8200]

Just a little trivia here for ya guys. Football is a violent sport as you said SkyDog. I am researching sports history at IU right now and I picked up this interesting fact. In 1905 there were 18 deaths by playing football...that's right Deaths. There were also 28 very serious injuries...such as crushed skulls, spinal fractures, etc nationwide. In fact it was such a dangerous sport that Teddy Roosevelt said that if football didn't change the rules (allow passing as an option) then he would ban the sport.

[Darkiller]

This HAS to be tweaked.

Last testing season played :
12 QBs >4000 yards passsing
1 > 5000 yards.

almost HALF OF THE LEAGUE QBS threw for over 4000 !

[bbo]

In my 3 seasons I have lost one play each year for the season and have had many 1 to 7 game injuries also. They have been great for me so far.
Also, each season I have had 3 to 5 4,000 yard passers. I am loving this game.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Darkiller
This HAS to be tweaked.

Last testing season played :
12 QBs >4000 yards passsing
1 > 5000 yards.

almost HALF OF THE LEAGUE QBS threw for over 4000 ! I'm not done with my testing yet, but I'm about halfway through with it set at 200. I'm becoming more and more convinced with each test run that I'm on to something here. Injuries look much closer to the real NFL, and stats are falling in line too. I should be done with the 200 run in about 5 minutes.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by bbo
In my 3 seasons I have lost one play each year for the season and have had many 1 to 7 game injuries also. They have been great for me so far.
Also, each season I have had 3 to 5 4,000 yard passers. I am loving this game. Fun playability and realism may be, in the case of injuries, two different things.l

[Pacersfan46]

I've noticed that QB's are a bit inflated, and RB's are a bit unimportant, and interchangable.

I dumped Edgerrin James after 5 years, only 2 of which he got 1,000 yards, and then plugged in Ladell Betts (who was rated a 24 overall) the next year as I needed to dump salary somewhere .... Ladell ran for 1,600 yards, and it remained the best rushing season I had seen for a good dozen years. I like the unpredictability .... but 1600 is the best total for 12 years? While QB's are getting 5000 yards, and mid thirty TD totals with single digit INT's?

I also agree it has some to do with ratings, but on the game I'm playing right this second ... I have Drew Brees who is currently rated a 48 overall ... with his best 2 ratings being accuracty (73), and two minute offense (63) and just had 29 TD's, and 6 INT's for me. While Ladanian Tomlinson is rated a 73 overall, and his 3 year high for me isn't even 1,000 yards.

[cody8200]

I think you right about rushing yardage. Seems a bit low. But I'm wondering if it;s because of lack of rushing attempts or just a low yard per rush ratio. I'm betting its because of lack of attempts. The ai's gameplans seem focused on the pass. If you guys are interested i'll list my career leaders for rushing in 2009.

[Pacersfan46]

Well, this is Tomlinson's YPC in every season I've played in this.

Year 1 - 3.7
Year 2 - 4.0
Year 3 - 3.9
Year 4 - 3.8
Year 5 - 3.0

Not very Tomlinson esque. This is ... of course ... just one example though.

[cody8200]

gotta factor in the x factor.

Heres my top 5 in career in 2009 4 games in

name gp gs yards ypc
Green, William 100 100 7110 4.2
Lewis, Jamal 95 95 7030 4.4
Williams, Ricky 98 94 6467 3.9
Green, Ahman 97 97 6351 4.4
Holmes, Priest 100 100 6216 3.8

Tomlinson is 7th

Tomlin, Ladan 100 100 6034 3.9


all in all the numbers look pretty decent.

[Ben E Lou]

OK. I just did 14 runs of the 2003 season, using Prime's real player file. I threw out the two highest and lowest 4000+ yard season totals, and used the middle 10 results. Here's what things looked like:

AVERAGE NUMBER OF 16-START QB's: 21.3 (2002 NFL: 13)
AVERAGE NUMBER OF 4000+-YARD QB's: 7.4 (2002 NFL: 4)
RATIO OF 4000-yarders to 16-game starters: .3474 (2002 NFL: .3077
RANGE OF 16-START QB's: 19-24
RANGE OF 4000-yard QB's: 6-9

At 200, things look quite a bit better. Still, QB's are playing 16 games MUCH more often than in the real NFL.

On my last three runs, I copied the regular season ending injury report, just to take a quick glance if injuries are too high or low. Here they are:From: Personnel Department

Injury Report:

Norbert Meadows, FB, is now 100%.

Quentin McCord, SE - Strained Deltoid Muscle, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Justin Griffith, FB - Hyperextended Knee, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Gerald McBurrows, SS - Shoulder Tendinitis, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Keith Brooking, WILB - Hyperextended Knee, Doubtful, full strength in about 2 weeks.

T.J. Duckett, RB - Stress Fracture in the Foot, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Terrence Edwards, FL - Strained Elbow Tendon, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Michael Vick, QB - Bruised Sternum, Questionable, full strength in 2004.

Ellis Johnson, NT - Plantar Fasciitis, Questionable, full strength in 2004.

Keion Carpenter, FS - Torn Thumb Ligament, Questionable, full strength in 2004.

Alge Crumpler, TE - High Ankle Sprain, Out, full strength in 2004From: Personnel Department

Injury Report:

Ellis Johnson, NT, is now 100%.

Keith Brooking, WILB, is now 100%.

Keion Carpenter, FS - Strained Patellar Tendon, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Chris Hope, FS - Strained Elbow Tendon, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Todd McClure, C - Separated Shoulder, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Alge Crumpler, TE - Hyperextended Knee, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Todd Weiner, RT - Hyperextended Elbow, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Sam Rogers, WLB - Ruptured Achilles Tendon, Out, full strength in late 2004.

Tyrone Williams, RCB - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return to full strength unknown.

Twan Russell, WILB - Turf Toe, Probable, return to full strength unknown.

Kynan Forney, RG - Turf Toe, Probable, return to full strength unknown.

Roberto Garza, RG - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return to full strength unknown.From: Personnel Department

Injury Report:

Todd Weiner, RT, is now 100%.

Peerless Price, FL, is now 100%.

Travis Hall, RDE - Hyperextended Elbow, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Keion Carpenter, FS - Hyperextended Elbow, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Bryan Scott, RCB - Hyperextended Knee, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Travis Jervey, RB - Strained Elbow Tendon, Out, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Todd McClure, C - Pulled Quadriceps Muscle, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Roberto Garza, RG - Broken Ribs, Questionable, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Warrick Dunn, RB - Torn Quadriceps Muscle, Out, full strength in 2004.

Sam Rogers, WLB - High Ankle Sprain, Out, full strength in 2004.

Tyrone Williams, RCB - ACL Damage to the Knee, Out, full strength in 2004.

Ray Buchanan, LCB - Torn Quadriceps Muscle, Out, full strength in late 2004.

T.J. Duckett, RB - Compound Leg Fracture, Out, full strength in late 2004.My head coach was Good in Avoid Injuries, and the Coordinators were Good and Average.

[CraigSca]

I don't have the statistics in front of me, but can anyone pro-rate last year's quarterback statistics to see how many 4000 yard passers there would have been had there been no quarterback injuries?

My thinking is quarterback injuries are very low at the 100 injury setting, but I'm also getting the impression that the AI for gameplans is pre-disposed to be pass-happy.

Did no one see the high number of 4000 yard passers in beta testing? Or the lack of QB injuries? The first year of my first dynasty I noticed the entire league had a total of ONE quarterback injury that caused the player to miss a game. No one finds this odd?

[Ben E Lou]

Thoughts:

EVen at 200, injuries still look to be overall a little lower than the NFL. I'll bet if they were brought into line (which I freely admit for many would make the game well nigh unplayable), you'd see the number of 4000-yard passers become much closer to the real NFL.

[CraigSca]

One other thing to look at - doesn't it SEEM (and I admit I have no data here) that it's much easier to find a better head coach/coordinator in this game.? That being the case, could it therefore be easier to find a coach with a high "Avoid Injury" rating? Could that then also influence the amount of injuries we're not seeing?

It still doesn't answer why QBs are not getting injured in this game compared to other positions...but could be part of the reason that the 100 setting just doesn't cut it as far as realism is concerned.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
I don't have the statistics in front of me, but can anyone pro-rate last year's quarterback statistics to see how many 4000 yard passers there would have been had there been no quarterback injuries?That would be a bit of a pain. I can't find any listing that has the games started listed, other than by looking at individual player stats. Here (http://nfl.com/stats/leaders/NFL/PYDS/2002/regular) is an example of what I'm talking about. I had to click on each player's name to find out how many games he played.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by CraigSca
I'm also getting the impression that the AI for gameplans is pre-disposed to be pass-happy.

Well, there are a few things to check there.

How many total plays are being run? This being too high alone could result in statistics being out of whack.

How does the pass/run ratio compare with the NFL?

How is the passing success rate (I think ypa is a good measure there)? In a related check, how is the ypc in the run game?

If it is true that the passing game is indeed emphasized at the expense of the run game, all these metrics need to be computed.

[amdaily]

Here are 2014 QB stats with injuries at 200. Note their 15 QB's started all games. I'm still getting 8 4000+ yarders and 9 guys with a rating above 95. Even the percentage of passes complete seems a bit high, especially for the top 5 QB's. I don't think it's the injuries that are the problem here.



Front Office Football 2004
Passing Statistics

Player Pos Team GP GS Att Cmp Pct Yards Avg Lg TD Int
McHugh, Thurman QB DEN 16 16 480 311 64.7 4441 9.25 54 38 10
Leftwich, Byron QB PIT 16 16 479 318 66.3 4158 8.68 63 31 9
Bookout, Ricky QB CHI 16 16 506 340 67.1 4068 8.03 80 36 13
Grove, Renaldo QB DAL 11 11 326 217 66.5 2438 7.47 38 24 7
Carr, Terry QB SDO 11 11 313 215 68.6 2529 8.07 80 18 6
Scherer, Tito QB SEA 15 9 366 246 67.2 3164 8.64 73 24 13
Schultz, James QB JAX 10 10 360 240 66.6 3097 8.60 47 21 11
**Dawson, Zack QB ATL 16 15 523 344 65.7 4269 8.16 79 25 12
Pennington, Chad QB GBY 8 8 235 156 66.3 1927 8.20 90 14 8
Weinke, Chris QB CIN 11 11 363 233 64.1 2842 7.82 53 16 7
Kraus, Rob QB ARI 13 13 404 254 62.8 3296 8.15 80 18 14
Vick, Michael QB MIA 15 15 432 274 63.4 3175 7.34 66 18 13
Irwin, Morris QB SDO 8 5 237 137 57.8 1619 6.83 46 17 9
Moose, Bryant QB HOU 16 16 539 343 63.6 4020 7.45 50 27 21
Hasselbeck, Matt QB CAR 16 16 523 319 60.9 3648 6.97 67 21 12
Cortez, Van QB NOS 16 16 535 334 62.4 3916 7.31 66 23 17
Burroughs, Charles QB KCY 16 16 495 327 66.0 3275 6.61 68 15 12
Bulger, Marc QB STL 13 12 429 255 59.4 2862 6.67 48 22 13
Megna, Derrick QB BUF 16 16 528 326 61.7 4203 7.96 77 25 24
Gray, Lincoln QB CLE 16 10 361 225 62.3 2266 6.27 53 11 6
Gryboski, Eddie QB NED 16 16 542 324 59.7 3701 6.82 61 22 16
Galloway, Courtney QB SEA 13 7 272 145 53.3 1866 6.86 44 18 11
Hastings, Dennis QB TEN 10 10 343 209 60.9 2429 7.08 75 12 12
Ramsey, Patrick QB NYK 16 16 621 369 59.4 4160 6.69 74 21 18
Swensen, Bryant QB IND 11 11 380 208 54.7 2901 7.63 66 18 16
Hopper, Glen QB DET 16 16 605 379 62.6 3871 6.39 65 26 26
Brady, Tom QB OAK 14 14 492 287 58.3 3420 6.95 63 20 19
Branch, Bryan QB WAS 16 16 454 273 60.1 2809 6.18 55 11 11
Hiam, Vernon QB MIN 16 16 572 344 60.1 4087 7.14 68 17 29
Brees, Drew QB NJY 11 11 348 194 55.7 2400 6.89 47 12 15
Stewart, Fernando QB PHI 16 16 490 308 62.8 3266 6.66 75 14 26
Richardson, R.J. QB TBY 15 15 529 317 59.9 2973 5.62 80 13 20
Lofton, Glenn QB SFO 16 16 573 325 56.7 3572 6.23 73 17 26
Schwartz, Kim QB JAX 8 6 248 134 54.0 1590 6.41 61 3 8

Player Pos Team Sck Yards Rating
McHugh, Thurman QB DEN 46 308 112.3
Leftwich, Byron QB PIT 39 244 107.3
Bookout, Ricky QB CHI 29 171 104.5
Grove, Renaldo QB DAL 22 125 104.2
Carr, Terry QB SDO 17 112 104.1
Scherer, Tito QB SEA 31 198 101.1
Schultz, James QB JAX 18 110 100.1
**Dawson, Zack QB ATL 43 249 97.2
Pennington, Chad QB GBY 20 129 97.2
Weinke, Chris QB CIN 28 188 94.8
Kraus, Rob QB ARI 40 245 88.8
Vick, Michael QB MIA 29 183 86.8
Irwin, Morris QB SDO 25 147 86.8
Moose, Bryant QB HOU 54 359 86.5
Hasselbeck, Matt QB CAR 59 394 85.7
Cortez, Van QB NOS 60 393 85.6
Burroughs, Charles QB KCY 48 282 84.6
Bulger, Marc QB STL 38 242 83.8
Megna, Derrick QB BUF 55 342 83.5
Gray, Lincoln QB CLE 31 203 83.3
Gryboski, Eddie QB NED 61 370 81.5
Galloway, Courtney QB SEA 24 149 80.2
Hastings, Dennis QB TEN 32 208 79.4
Ramsey, Patrick QB NYK 51 295 78.6
Swensen, Bryant QB IND 41 248 77.6
Hopper, Glen QB DET 48 289 77.3
Brady, Tom QB OAK 40 225 77.0
Branch, Bryan QB WAS 42 258 75.9
Hiam, Vernon QB MIN 45 286 70.7
Brees, Drew QB NJY 29 172 70.7
Stewart, Fernando QB PHI 51 310 69.6
Richardson, R.J. QB TBY 45 253 67.8
Lofton, Glenn QB SFO 39 236 66.2
Schwartz, Kim QB JAX 20 116 64.3

[Ben E Lou]

One run does not a conclusion make. Plus, if injuries are still a little low, and game plans are skewed towards passing a bit, that makes 8 a reasonable result.

[amdaily]

Alright then, contrast those results to FOF 2001, where 3 more QB's start every game. Note only 4 4,000 yards. and zero 100 ratings, while there are mutiple below 70, something that rarely happen in FOF004.



EA.com Front Office Football 2001
Name Tm GP GS Att Comp Pct Yards Avg Lg
Favre, Brett GBY 16 16 519 327 63.0 4304 8.29 85
Beuerlein, Steve CAR 16 16 502 302 60.1 4011 7.99 77
Warner, Kurt STL 16 16 564 330 58.5 4092 7.25 84
Chandler, Chris ATL 16 16 421 231 54.8 3108 7.38 85
Brister, Bubby MIN 16 16 577 311 53.8 4018 6.96 90
Dilfer, Trent BAL 16 16 493 295 59.8 3519 7.13 89
Bledsoe, Drew NED 16 16 397 235 59.1 3158 7.95 56
Brunell, Mark JAX 16 16 456 270 59.2 2939 6.44 65
Miller, Jim CHI 16 16 560 355 63.3 3837 6.85 80
Johnson, Rob BUF 16 16 510 300 58.8 3725 7.30 64
Aikman, Troy DAL 16 16 494 291 58.9 3451 6.98 83
Gannon, Rich OAK 16 16 501 292 58.2 3560 7.10 72
Frerotte, Gus DEN 16 16 528 305 57.7 3344 6.33 48
Garcia, Jeff SFO 16 16 467 269 57.6 2600 5.56 87
Testaverde, Vinny NYJ 16 16 492 275 55.8 3016 6.13 94
Zeier, Eric TBY 16 16 461 247 53.5 2956 6.41 70
Garrett, Jason NYG 16 16 498 275 55.2 3080 6.18 44
Foley, Glenn SEA 16 16 530 294 55.4 3086 5.82 44
Graham, Kent PIT 16 16 436 247 56.6 2295 5.26 56
Mitchell, Scott CIN 16 16 512 275 53.7 3423 6.68 57
Batch, Charlie DET 15 15 439 264 60.1 3341 7.61 60
Manning, Peyton IND 15 15 279 168 60.2 2267 8.12 57
McNair, Steve TEN 15 15 440 260 59.0 3187 7.24 61
Pederson, Doug PHI 15 15 509 280 55.0 2749 5.40 51
Blake, Jeff NOS 15 14 464 259 55.8 3175 6.84 48
Moon, Warren KCY 13 13 417 245 58.7 2940 7.05 84
Johnson, Brad WAS 13 12 448 275 61.3 3241 7.23 49
Couch, Tim CLE 13 10 311 167 53.6 1806 5.80 52
Harbaugh, Jim SDO 11 11 349 205 58.7 2057 5.89 80
**Plummer, Jake ARI 11 11 315 184 58.4 1991 6.32 76
Holcomb, Kelly IND 11 1 229 122 53.2 1324 5.78 71
Moreno, Moses SDO 9 5 239 123 51.4 1437 6.01 80

Name TD Int Sack Yards Rate
Favre, Brett 30 17 41 245 94.7
Beuerlein, Steve 25 15 39 253 89.6
Warner, Kurt 29 17 50 310 85.6
Chandler, Chris 22 11 39 246 85.0
Brister, Bubby 35 16 40 247 84.6
Dilfer, Trent 25 17 23 144 84.2
Bledsoe, Drew 18 18 30 187 80.7
Brunell, Mark 17 12 48 308 79.6
Miller, Jim 20 22 38 234 79.0
Johnson, Rob 17 17 34 218 78.7
Aikman, Troy 19 18 37 227 77.8
Gannon, Rich 16 19 38 238 75.0
Frerotte, Gus 14 15 30 181 73.5
Garcia, Jeff 13 13 43 250 70.9
Testaverde, Vinny 14 17 54 340 69.2
Zeier, Eric 16 19 36 226 67.8
Garrett, Jason 17 21 43 266 67.6
Foley, Glenn 15 22 39 242 64.6
Graham, Kent 12 17 26 160 64.1
Mitchell, Scott 17 27 37 231 63.7
Batch, Charlie 19 15 36 218 84.0
Manning, Peyton 12 16 15 99 76.5
McNair, Steve 12 16 30 197 75.4
Pederson, Doug 10 19 45 279 61.4
Blake, Jeff 16 20 50 312 70.5
Moon, Warren 18 12 25 152 82.8
Johnson, Brad 16 16 36 229 80.3
Couch, Tim 7 14 39 248 59.7
Harbaugh, Jim 5 12 27 177 66.0
**Plummer, Jake 9 24 32 211 54.8
Holcomb, Kelly 5 8 26 163 63.2
Moreno, Moses 6 13 21 138 55.7

Key: GP = Games Played, GS = Games Started, Att = Passes Attempted,
Comp = Passes Completed, Yards = Passing Yards, Avg = Yards per Attempt,
Lg = Longest Pass, TD = Touchdowns Passing, Int = Passes Intercepted,
Sack = Times Sacked, Yards = Sack Yards, Rate = Quarterback Rating.

[Ben E Lou]

One more comparison:
2001 NFL Rushers >1,200 yards: 10
2002 NFL Rushers >1,200 yards: 12

FOF
2003: 9
2004: 8
2005: 7
2006: 8

[amdaily]

While I admit this finding needs researched further (I have to go to workright now), FOF2004 had 872 more league wide pass attempts that FOF2K1 with an average yards per attempt an entire .5 yards longer on each one.

As for rushing, FOF2004 had 497 more attempts then 2K1 with the same average of 3.8.

Also, FOF2004 had a league wide completeion percentage of 61.7, while 2K1 had it of 57.3.

The probem is obviously with the stats here, not the injuries. FOF2004 has more QB's making longer passes, and completing them at a much high rate, thus accounting for the large number of 4,000 yarders and 100+ ratings.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by amdaily
While I admit this finding needs researched further (I have to go to workright now), FOF2004 had 872 more league wide pass attempts that FOF2K1 with an average yards per attempt an entire .5 yards longer on each one.

As for rusing, FOF2004 had 497 more attempts then 2K1 with the same average of 3.8. How did you find the FOF league-wide numbers. I have some time to take a look today, but don't want to add 'em all up. ;)

[Ben E Lou]

Never mind....team stats page. I almost never look at that. :p

[Ben E Lou]

First glance at rushing:

2002 NFL >500 attempts: 4 teams
2002 NFL >450 attempts: 14 teams
2002 NFL >400 attempts: 27 teams
2002 NFL >=5.0ypc: 3 teams
2002 NFL >=4.5ypc: 9 teams
2002 NFL >=4.0ypc: 24 teams

2003 FOF >500 attempts: 4 teams
2003 FOF >450 attempts: 13 teams
2002 FOF >400 attempts: 26 teams
2002 FOF >=5.0ypc: 0 teams
2002 FOF >=4.5ypc: 0 teams
2002 FOF >=4.0ypc: 20 teams

At first glance, it appears that rushing attempts are about right, but rushing yards per carry is low. (That was with a 200-injury season.)

[JonInMiddleGA]

I can't say that I've seen a shortage of QB injuries in my massive sample of one complete season.

Of course, my perception could be skewed by a torn something or other that, combined with the X-factor, reduced Mike Vick to a 40's potential QB who looks to be my 3rd-string QB in the second season (behind some scrub & newly signed FA Tim Couch).

[Chubby]

take a look at completion percentage, I am running into very numbers in my career for QBs

[oykib]

I think this is getting to the business with the rel player file. If the talent is distributed differently than Jim's plan, initially, perhaps that affects later player generation.

It's like how the OPU used to affect FOF4 for years-- until the generation routines normalized ten or so years down the line.

I've only played one season. I set my O-Line and RBs way high during the preference draft. I got a 2,000 yard back. Also my QB didn't last the full season. Small sample size, I know. But I haven't used the real player file.

[Ben E Lou]

Jon:

Check the overall stats. In my most recent run at 100, there were 25 QB's who started all 16 games. Not only that, on 24 of those teams, the backup threw less than 27 passes all year long. These guys aren't even getting banged up for a few plays.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by oykib
I think this is getting to the business with the rel player file. If the talent is distributed differently than Jim's plan, initially, perhaps that affects later player generation. I'm fairly certain the only change in the real player file is that the names have been changed.

[Ben E Lou]

Just ran one quick season with the original player file, injuries at 100. Same issues:

27 QB's played all 16 games. 9 >4,000 yards. No teams >4.5ypc.

As far as completion percentage goes, here's how that played out:


2002 NFL >65%: 3 teams
2002 NFL >60%: 18 teams
2002 NFL >55%: 25 teams
2002 NFL >50%: 31 teams

2003 FOF >65%: 6 teams
2003 FOF >60%: 17 teams
2003 FOF >55%: 29 teams
2003 FOF >50%: 32 teams

Hmm..it looks a little high, but probably needs a few more runs before we can say for sure that it is.

I can't find what the overall completion percentage was in 2002. Anyone?

[Samdari]

Originally posted by SkyDog
I'm fairly certain the only change in the real player file is that the names have been changed.

This is true. The player ratings are the same in both files (at least the published CSV files).

There is one "problem" with the initial/real player file though. The frequency of upper-echelon players is higher than the percentages laid out it the csv.txt file. The frequencies go as follows (apologies for the roughness of the table). FYI the initial file has 1758 players.

Rate Players %actual %theory
0 640 36.4 53.4
1 496 28.2 23.9
2 274 15.5 12.2
3 105 6.0 3.9
4 70 4.0 2.6
5 58 3.3 1.5
6 46 2.6 1.1
7 32 1.8 0.6
8 27 1.5 0.4
9 9 0.5 0.3

Now, as is clear, the talent skews higher than described in the csv.txt file. Every rating has a higher percentage of players that described by the file, except 0. Particularly disturbing is the number of players rated 5 and above. According to the file, this should be 4% of the player pool. In the initial file, 10% of players are rated 5 or higher. Note that I do not really know this is a problem, as Jim may have simply changed his intended distribution and not rewritten the file, as this is the kind of hard to find mistake that can easily happen with a one man show (and in fact, has happened with Microsoft). I make no claims as to knowledge of what the distribution of players should be, only what it is, and what the file says.

As I cannot get a csv file of game-generated drafts, nor of player distributions in, say 2033, when all players have been draft generated. Can those doing such analysis give passer statistics for 2003-2005 with the default/real player file, and compare those to 2033-2035 with draft/randomly generated players? Ben, are your statistics done in the first few years with the initial file, or with a fictional, 20 years + history universe.

By the way, Ben, after playing with these ratings/distributions, I have decided to ask if I can get my title changed to "roster filler." I think I've earned it.

[CraigSca]

Data for the last season I have available (1997), from "The Hidden Game of Football"...

Avg. Yards Per carry: 3.98
Avg. Comp. Rate: 56.2
Yards per Pass: 6.69
TD Pct: 3.9
Int Pct.: 3.0
Avg. QB Rating: 77.22


It should be noted that average yards per carry has hovered at 4.0 for the years 1963 through 1997. Completion percentage has hovered at 54-58% since 1981. Average yards per attempt was 6.8 to 7.1 through 1992. In 1993, they started going down and were in the 6.6 to 6.8 range.

Gonna look for avg. pass attempts and rush attempts for the league as a whole as well...

[Ben E Lou]

Good thought Samdari. I wonder if you've hit the nail on the head. I just ran a test season with the fictional universe generator, and lo and behold, there were 2 QB's throwing for over 4,000 yards, and only 12 of them started all 16 games. I'm going to sim ahead 20 years and see what things look like.

--Ben

[CraigSca]

Also from "The Hidden Game of Football"...

This is all per team...and from 1997.

Average rushing attempts per game: 28
Average Yards rushing: 113
Avg. passes attempted: 33
Avg. Completions: 18
Average Yards Passing: 219

Avg. rushing attempts have fluctuated between 27-28 since 1990. Yards rushing on those attempts: 104-114. Pass attempts...since 1980 have fluctuated between 31 and 35. Last 31 was 1991, last 35 was 1995. Completions since 1980 have been between 17 and 20. Last 17 year was 1992, last 20 year was 1995. Passing yards since 1980: 205 to 236. 205 in 1992, 236 in 1995.

edited for grammar/spelling issues

[albionmoonlight]

I say wait until the real players get out of the league before you begin looking at stats too much.

That said--in my career (only 4 years old) the league rushing average is down around 3.4 ypc.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Good thought Samdari. I wonder if you've hit the nail on the head. I just ran a test season with the fictional universe generator, and lo and behold, there were 2 QB's throwing for over 4,000 yards, and only 12 of them started all 16 games. I'm going to sim ahead 20 years and see what things look like.

--Ben

Would this mean that better quarterbacks (from the original player file) have less injuries? I'm not sure how the fictional universe would impact injuries -- unless injuries are tied to the player's talent in some way.

Wait a sec...are they not starting because they're bad quarterbacks? That would explain it... Not an injury reason, but a talent one.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
Would this mean that better quarterbacks (from the original player file) have less injuries? I'm not sure how the fictional universe would impact injuries -- unless injuries are tied to the player's talent in some way.

Wait a sec...are they not starting because they're bad quarterbacks? That would explain it... Not an injury reason, but a talent one. My guess is that it is a little of both. Good players tend to have high "endurance" ratings. I think this rating has an effect on injury frequency.

[Daimyo]

When I use the fictitious rosters I'm creating I do not get the problem of stat inflation at all. I follow exactly Jim's help file for talent distribution (the "theory" column of the chart Samdari posted above). My guess is that in the initial rosters Jim inflated the talent level a bit. Probably so he wouldn't have to deal with so many "Why is insert my favorite player here so bad in FOF?" questions.

Please give this player file a try if you have time. I hope to release the script later today (when i get home from work basically) that I'm using to create these.

Fictious Player File (http://pubweb.acns.nwu.edu/~sws057/playerfile1.zip)

[Maple Leafs]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Fun playability and realism may be, in the case of injuries, two different things.l Bingo.

If FOF actually simulated realistic NFL injury totals, people would be screaming that it was unplayable. The Colts had 20 players on their injured list last week, 13 who were Questionable or worse. If that happened to an FOF team, most of us would scrap the season and start over (after posting a nasty message on FOFC).

People say they want a realistic NFL sim, but they really want something that's as realistic as possible while still being fun. By my count, at least three real-life NFL teams (Lions, Jets, Falcons) have had their seasons completely derailed by major injuries in the pre-season. Two other teams (Raiders, Ravens) have recently had to IR the QBs they've banked their future on. And of course we've had major injuries to big names like Faulk, Shockey, Harrison, Dillon, Plummer, etc. And that's just the offensive players!

I get the feeling that the typical FOFC player wants to have three or four injuries at any time, maybe one or two serious. Just enough to produce a challenge, but not so much that their carefully selected roster is decimated and the season is a writeoff. That's fine, and it's probably more fun, but it's not realistic and we shouldn't pretend that it is.

[cody8200]

That is exactly what I was saying earlier this thread. It's real players file that is bringing the statistical trouble. I figured if you created a random universe thing would revert back to normal solesismic numbers.

[Samdari]

Initial QB talent:

Same chart as before, but with only QBs (94 total) counted:


Rating Number %QB %Overall %Theory
0 35 37.2 36.4 53.4
1 21 22.3 28.2 23.9
2 12 12.7 15.5 12.2
3 6 6.3 5.9 3.9
4 5 5.3 4.0 2.6
5 3 3.2 3.3 1.5
6 3 3.2 2.6 1.1
7 5 5.3 1.8 0.6
8 4 4.3 1.5 0.4
9 0 0.0 0.5 0.3


I am not sure what conclusions to draw from this. Obviously, there are more QBs with 7/8 ratings that the league as a whole. That could help explain the high passing numbers being seen in initial seasons. Also, the top 15 QBs are rated 5 and above, which is ~half the starters (but only supposed to be 4% of the league) and if 12 of them play the whole season, there will be a lot of passing success.

In addition to not knowing if the initial player distribution does not match the draft distribution, we also do not know if the QB talent distribution of draft generated players matches that of the rest of the positions. It is obvious to me that QBs are handled differently from the other positions in certain circumstances (development, e.g.) so they might have a different talent distribution.

Are the editors being generated only for editing/reading initial player files? I would love to have a utility which could generate .csv player files from games in progress, and do similar rating counts for careers 20-30 years down the road.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Samdari
I would love to have a utility which could generate .csv player files from games in progress, and do similar rating counts for careers 20-30 years down the road. I think that is the crucial missing piece.

[cuervo72]

I know there was talk of the ability to export files from a league, but I haven't checked to see if it was there or not.

I've been wondering with the initial player file how often some of those lower-end guys get playing time, the guys in the teens and single digits. I know they are supposed to be a large chunk of the league, but aren't most of these guys gone in OPU careers? Could the worst players being worse inflate numbers of some of the best players (just throwing out theories)?

[Samdari]

Originally posted by cody8200
That is exactly what I was saying earlier this thread. It's real players file that is bringing the statistical trouble. I figured if you created a random universe thing would revert back to normal solesismic numbers.

I hope so.

But, one thing I feel I need to reiterate is, without the ability to generate some sort of text file with ratings in it from in-progress careers, we have no idea if the game is generating players from the distribution described in csv.txt, or if Jim changed the distribution without changing the file describing it.

[CraigSca]

Someone made a player editor - it sounds like it wouldn't be hard to create a report showing the talent distribution if you could create an application that can read and write to the data file. Just sounds like the next step.... :hint, hint: :)

[Samdari]

Well, all the editors I have seen so far have edited player files used to start games. The data for careers in progress is stored in entirely different files - thus requiring more work for our "hackers" than simply adding a utility to write csv files. I believe it would require writing an entirely new "reader" module.

Heck, I am not even sure that the rating of 1-9 is saved in the career save game files. Once the current and future is generated for each player, this could possibly be a superflous piece of data. This rating being missing would make the comparisons I want to do impossible.

[Daimyo]

It would probably be very easy to adapt the script I'm using to create fictitious starting universes to create fictitious draft files with the same talent level Jim describes in the help files. If the talent the game is creating is too high that is one way to go.

From my experience the draft is pretty low talent. To get a stud out of the draft you need 1) a high pick, 2) luck, 3) a coach who can develop the player, and 4) a roster that allows you to give him playing time. I've probably drafted 50 players and had one guy develop to be a stud (league best QB drafted at 1-17), one other guy who became a top tier starter (WR drafted at 2-17) and a bunch of average starters (drafted 20-30). The two guys I managed to really develop both started from rookies with very good or excellent coaching. Looking around my league I don't see too many great drafted players.

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by Samdari
Well, all the editors I have seen so far have edited player files used to start games. The data for careers in progress is stored in entirely different files - thus requiring more work for our "hackers" than simply adding a utility to write csv files. I believe it would require writing an entirely new "reader" module.

Heck, I am not even sure that the rating of 1-9 is saved in the career save game files. Once the current and future is generated for each player, this could possibly be a superflous piece of data. This rating being missing would make the comparisons I want to do impossible.

I think somewhere Jim states that these are stored internally in the game from 0-1000 (I might be mistaken here)? So by time they are in the game they are a completely different format?

[Fritz]

I have been seeing the QBs pass like this for a few versions.

[3ric]

In the game the ratings are stored as values between 375 and 625, with 375 being 0 and 625 being 100. We know this from the draft files, the save games aren't different in this regard.

The 1-9 values are just markers to make player creation easier, the actual ratings are generated to a level given by that value (1-9)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Fritz
I have been seeing the QBs pass like this for a few versions. I just checked 6 seasons I have saved in FOF4. I only am seeing three instances. The number of 4000+ yard QB's ranges from a low of 1 to a high of 7, with most years being 2-4. Granted, I'm only looking at 6 seasons.

[RPI-Fan]

I'm going to use HR's utility to generate a fictional universe, and sim 15 2003 seasons with it. I'll report the results soon.

[Ben E Lou]

Dola---and I just opened a FOF2K1/2 career in 2023, and there were only 18 instances in the record book of a QB throwing for more than 4,000 yards, and that's in 20+ seasons.

[Ben E Lou]

In my farthest-out FOF4 savegame (end of 2019), it had happened 84 times in 18 seasons (4.7 times per season).

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by RPI-Fan
I'm going to use HR's utility to generate a fictional universe, and sim 15 2003 seasons with it. I'll report the results soon. I'm already doing just that, although I'm also trying to get some work done, so I'm only in 2014 even though I've been doing it for maybe 3-4 hours. :p

[Ryche]

I'm just curious if nobody else noticed that the NFL players, quarterbacks especially, had rather inflated numbers using FOF4 too. It annoyed me enough that I started using OPU almost exclusively with new dynasties. I don't have the game in front of me to confirm this, but I'm pretty sure that is the source of the yardage and lack of injuries. Comparison with an OPU or a league using the default players would be helpful.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Ryche
I'm just curious if nobody else noticed that the NFL players, quarterbacks especially, had rather inflated numbers using FOF4 too. It annoyed me enough that I started using OPU almost exclusively with new dynasties. I don't have the game in front of me to confirm this, but I'm pretty sure that is the source of the yardage and lack of injuries. Comparison with an OPU or a league using the default players would be helpful. 4.7 4,000-yard passers per year might be a little inflated, but not by much, if you're looking at the past few seasons.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by SkyDog
I'm also trying to get some work done

Well, knock it off, and get those results out!

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Samdari
Well, knock it off, and get those results out! ;)

I'm at 2015 now, and moving along more quickly. (Just waiting for some phone calls to be returned right now, work-wise.) I have a relatively fast machine. Sim speed is a non-issue. It is more of an issue of how much attention I can give to moving from stage to stage.

[amdaily]

I'm composing an excel table contrasting HeavyReign's roster vs the real player name file vs FOF2001 (don't have FOF4). Thus far it's still looking like a gameplan or statistical problem as HeavyReign's results compare much more closley to the real player file than FOF2K1.

[Ben E Lou]

Well, I saw only 2 4,000-yard passers in 2003 with HR's file, but that number is increasing as I go farther into this career. However, I definitely want to see how things look when everyone in the universe is draft-generated. I'll need a few more seasons for that. I'll have something definitely within the hour to look at.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Well, I saw only 2 4,000-yard passers in 2003 with HR's file, but that number is increasing as I go farther into this career.

Preceisely! The real playe file does this too. The people reporting they see no problems are the ones that are simming game by game and only mid way though the inital season. Once you get 3-5 years and beyond the stats grown more absurd.

[amdaily]

Alright, here is the data for the first 3 seasons.

HeavyReigns fictious rosters are similar to the real player file, so inital player ratings do not appear to be causing the stat inflation.

I thought the low rushing average in FOF2001 was interesting vs the latest vesrion.

Also look at the total of 0 players reaching a 100 QB rating in 3 full seasons of FOF2001, despite that far less injuries occured in FOF2001 (I have it set at 175 in my FOF2004 tests).

As I mentioned earlier yards per pass attempt is far higher in FOF2004 than 2001 (with the exception of season 1). When also considering pass attempts league wide are up approx. 800 per season vs FOF2001 these two stats must be invlooved in the inflated numbers.

Lastly, notice the increasing number of top level QB's as the career progresses. Based on personal experience thus far, the number of elite QB's in both of the FOF2004 careers will continue to increase in future seasons.

ps. I forgot to track % of passes complete, but as I wrote ealier FOF2004 QB's are completing about 5% more of their passes than QBs on FOF2001.



Season 1 HR Real Players FOF 2001 Daimyo
Rush attempts 14182 14158 13545 14330
Rush avg 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8
Pass attempts 17994 17098 16498 17280
Pass avg 6.7 6.7 6.6 5.8
100+ ratings 1 2 0 1
4000+ yards 6 5 2 0

Season 2 HR Real Players FOF 2001 Daimyo
Rush attempts 14105 13984 13479 13993
Rush avg 4 4 3.6 3.7
Pass attempts 17471 17375 16695 17932
Pass avg 7 7 6.4 6.1
100+ ratings 5 3 0 0
4000+ yards 6 6 1 0

Season 3 HR Real Players FOF 2001 Daimyo
Rush attempts 13975 13955 13408 14163
Rush avg 4 4 3.6 3.8
Pass attempts 17786 17438 16794 17698
Pass avg 7.1 7.1 6.5 6.2
100+ ratings 4 3 0 0
4000+ yards 7 10 3 1

[Daimyo]

Try my fictitious universe sample. HR said he based his talent on the talent in the real roster file so it will be just as inflated. I based mine off Jim's help file so they should be very different.

Sample fictitious player file (http://pubweb.acns.nwu.edu/~sws057/playerfile1.zip)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Daimyo
Try my fictitious universe sample. HR said he based his talent on the talent in the real roster file so it will be just as inflated. I based mine off Jim's help file so they should be very different.

Sample fictitious player file (http://pubweb.acns.nwu.edu/~sws057/playerfile1.zip) Daim:

The problem I'm seeing right now, though, is that the universe is almost completely "pure", now that my fast sim is in 2020. 12 guys threw for 4,000+ yards this year.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by Daimyo
Try my fictitious universe sample. HR said he based his talent on the talent in the real roster file so it will be just as inflated. I based mine off Jim's help file so they should be very different.

Sample fictitious player file (http://pubweb.acns.nwu.edu/~sws057/playerfile1.zip)

Crap :), that means I have to start all over. Didn't know about that.

[Ben E Lou]

{Slaps head}

If, as I hypothesized in the first place, it is partially due to less injuries, then I should have been running this with injuries set to 200. It would stand to reason that a higher percentage of the game-generated draftees who are potential stars would develop into actual stars, and remain stars longer, if they aren't getting injured as frequently as they should.

I'll run this a few more years, then re-run it with injuries set to 200.

[Daimyo]

Well.. if its the case that the draft is inflated I can adapt my fictional player script to create draft files too I bet. :)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Daimyo
Well.. if its the case that the draft is inflated I can adapt my fictional player script to create draft files too I bet. :) That may be the solution. I probably won't be able to run the 200-injury test until late tonight.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Dola---and I just opened a FOF2K1/2 career in 2023, and there were only 18 instances in the record book of a QB throwing for more than 4,000 yards, and that's in 20+ seasons.

in the group think (FOF4) file (23 years) all of the top passing totals are over 4387. They start around 2009 with fairly mature QBs.

My games at home, which I will be happy to check later, probably have even more..

[amdaily]

SkyDog - I still don't see how this could be related to injuries. FOF2001 had very few injuries for QB's. In my particular test, 21 started all their games vs 15 in FOF2004 with injury setting at 175. Yet, the results I posted three posts back are so diametrially opposed they can't be reconciled. Additionally, the yards per attempt and completion percentage have no bearing on injuries.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by Daimyo
Well.. if its the case that the draft is inflated I can adapt my fictional player script to create draft files too I bet. :)

Ack, but I don't want to HAVE to do this!

I think what needs to be done, along with comparing individual stats, is to take a look at the stats on a more macro level. Are league averages out of whack, or is it individuals? If it's individuals only, then it's most likely an injury issue.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Fritz
in the group think (FOF4) file (23 years) all of the top passing totals are over 4387. They start around 2009 with fairly mature QBs.

My games at home, which I will be happy to check later, probably have even more.. All are over 4,456 here (FOF4) in 18 seasons. However, it is still pretty much limited to the studs, with only 4.7 per year average. Right now we're seeing barely above-average QB's getting 4000+ yards.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by CraigSca
Ack, but I don't want to HAVE to do this!

I think what needs to be done, along with comparing individual stats, is to take a look at the stats on a more macro level. Are league averages out of whack, or is it individuals? If it's individuals only, then it's most likely an injury issue.

That's just it, this is a league wide problem. Completion percentage, average pass attempt length, total pass attempts, and even rushing attempts are way out of wack. I still think it's a gameplan issue.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by amdaily
Additionally, the yards per attempt and completion percentage have no bearing on injuries. Well, yes and no. If more QB's in the universe were getting their ratings knocked down by injuries, and more scrub QB's were having to play, you'd see yards per attempt and completion percentage go down some.

I'm not saying that it is a purely injury-related issue, but I do have a feeling that it is at least partially injury-related.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by amdaily
That's just it, this is a league wide problem. Completion percentage, average pass attempt length, total pass attempts, and even rushing attempts are way out of wack. I still think it's a gameplan issue. I thought rushing attempts looked pretty good. Yards per carry, however, is a problem.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Well, yes and no. If more QB's in the universe were getting their ratings knocked down by injuries, and more scrub QB's were having to play, you'd see yards per attempt and completion percentage go down some.

I'm not saying that it is a purely injury-related issue, but I do have a feeling that it is at least partially injury-related.

True, but if that's the case both of those stats should be decreasing as more scrubs get into the lineup. My macro testing indicates these stats are significantly higher than FOF2001 where starters played more often.

I'll have to test it, but I'll bet 5-6 games into an FOF2004 season (before the scrubs get in these), those specific stats are much higher than the season ending averages I posted above.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by amdaily
That's just it, this is a league wide problem. Completion percentage, average pass attempt length, total pass attempts, and even rushing attempts are way out of wack. I still think it's a gameplan issue.

Sigh - if it's a gameplan issue, there's nothing we can do except hope Jim sees it as a problem and decides to fix it.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by CraigSca
Sigh - if it's a gameplan issue, there's nothing we can do except hope Jim sees it as a problem and decides to fix it.

I'm going to contrast FOF2001 vs 2004 gameplans now...

Daiymo - I updated my chart with three seasons of your stats.

While they are inline with FOF2001, pass attempts are way to high still. As SkyDog has suggested, as better QB's arrive though the draft they will be able to exploit those increased attempts for more yards and a higher rating. So it doesn't look like that the player files are at fault.

[Ben E Lou]

Hold the phone. I've seen a significant drop in 4,000-yard passers as my universe has moved into the 2020's.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Hold the phone. I've seen a significant drop in 4,000-yard passers as my universe has moved into the 2020's.

With what inital rosters?

Also, can you post the league wide passing attempts and completion percentage?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by amdaily
With what inital rosters? H.R.-generated (first version with bad contracts)

[amdaily]

Here's my game plan study. The total was calculated by adding together the run percentage on all down and situations except for 4th down.

I see this as the main, but not only, problem in so many QB's in FOF2004 having 4000 yard seasons.

League wide passing attempts in FOF2004 are approx 800 more than FOF2001 and on the surface, it looks like that is due to the game planning.

Note that these study does not take into account all of the specific game plans for FOF2004 - just the normal situation version.

Also, while I'm not taking the time to study it, I suspect FOF2004 gameplans have higher values for longer passes as the league wide FOF2004 yards per pass attempt is .5 - .7 yards greater than FOF2001.


Arizona FOF2004
80 64 28 20
65 59 27 27
57 12 6 7
61 0 0 0
Total = 452

Arizona FOF2001
75 72 53 41
86 54 34 45
57 14 6 20
68 26 12 26
Total = 557

Atlanta FOF2004
76 76 54 18
71 49 23 17
58 10 7 4
57 0 0 0
Total = 463

Atlanta FOF2001
75 72 69 41
83 63 37 29
67 24 14 17
68 26 13 26
Total = 591

Baltimore FOF2004
70 60 53 53
58 63 38 18
45 8 5 18
33 0 0 0
Total = 489

Baltimore FOF2001
75 72 55 41
73 53 37 40
75 20 24 20
68 26 13 26
Total = 585

[Ben E Lou]

Looks like it was just a temporary blip.

2025:
10 4,000-yard passers
14,042 rushing attempts (4.0ypc)
17,474 passing attempts
.615 completion pct.
7.2 yards per passing attempt

[Icy]

If it is a gameplan issue, i will be so dissapointed because the engine won't be as perfect as i thought, lets say i have an average QB, what you're saying is that if i set my gameplan to unreal passing amount he would be a super QB vs the league averages?? if a QB is bad, if you set more passing plays he should get tons of interceptions or incompleted passes, not a higher yardage.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by SkyDog
2025:
14,042 rushing attempts (4.0ypc)
Well, this part is right :)

[Ksyrup]

Is it possible that the increase in yards per passing attempt and increased passing attempts are being caused principally by the yards per carry being below normal?

Fewer yards being gained on the ground means more passes in certain circumstances, based on the game plans. If teams have further to go, the attempted passes are more likely to be medium and long, rather than short - hence, more yards per pass attempt.

The reason for the higher success rate of the QBs may have to do with fewer injuries to the starters, meaning that the best QBs are throwing more often and having their usual success doing so - it's just that now, with a bunch of 2nd and 3rd and long situations, they are throwing more and for more yardage.

Overall, how does team yardage compare with previous versions? Are teams gaining more yardage overall, or is it just a split in passing/rushing yardage that is the problem? For example, if the typical stats are 2,000 rushing, 3,500 passing, are we seeing 1,500 rushing, and 4,000 passing, or 1,500 rushing and 5,000 passing? Just wondering if the effectiveness of the QBs is leading to longer drives, and more yardage.

On the same track, how does league scoring compare to "normal?"

Just some ideas. It seems to me, though, that the decreased effectiveness of the running game is related to the increased effectiveness of the passing game, combined with fewer injuries to starting QBs.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Samdari
Well, this part is right :) Yup. It doesn't appear to be a game planning issue.

I'm continuing my test run, and bumped injuries up to 200. In 2026, it dropped to 9 QB's >4000 yards. In 2027, it is down to 5. Let's see what happens...

[Ben E Lou]

If anyone can find, or calculate, league rushing and passing totals for 2002, it would be VERY helpful.

[CraigSca]

You may be right, Ksyrup...but then wouldn't completion percentages from an overall standpoint be lower, as the quarterbacks are forced to throw longer to make up for the shorter gains on the ground?

I tell ya...putting a football sim together is like the celestial dance of the universe. If TPF is able to get an engine together that doesn't fall flat on it's face, I'd be surprised (since it's just the first iteration of the app). Unlike other event-driven sports (like baseball) football is complicated on so many levels.

[Icy]

Also about injuries, mybe the problem is not just the amount but which position gets more injuries, mybe QB aren't getting as much injuries as in the NFL but RB are getting more for example?

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by SkyDog
If anyone can find, or calculate, league rushing and passing totals for 2002, it would be VERY helpful.

it's all available on ESPN.com.

passing totals:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statistics?stat=teampass&pos=off&league=nfl&order=true&season=2&year=2002

rushing totals: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statistics?stat=teamrush&sort=ypg&pos=off&league=nfl&season=2&year=2002

[Ben E Lou]

Right, but I don't see league totals, just team totals.

[CraigSca]

Took the stats and imported them into a spreadsheet...


2002 Passing

Attempts: 17292
Comp.: 10314
Comp. PCT: .596
Yards per Attempt: 6.28
Yards per. Comp.: 10.53

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
Took the stats and imported them into a spreadsheet... I was trying my best to figure out how to do that. How'd you do it?

[CraigSca]

Rushing totals for 2002 season:

Rushing Attempts: 14102
Yards: 59459
Yards per carry: 4.21 :eek:

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Right, but I don't see league totals, just team totals.

add them up. do I have to hold your hand? :p

[Samdari]

Originally posted by SkyDog
If anyone can find, or calculate, league rushing and passing totals for 2002, it would be VERY helpful.

Funny, I was coming here to do that

Pass Attempts: 17292
Completions: 10314
Percentage: 0.5965
YPA: 6.72
Rush Attempts: 14102
Rush Yds: 59459
YPC: 4.21

Two things jump out at me from those numbers. The number of pass attempts and rush attempts over a season are stunningly accurate for SkyDog's 2003 season and for the 2002 NFL season.

Looks like the comp% and ypa are a bit higher than the NFL's, and the YPC are a bit lower. Note that the actual 2002 NFL stats shatter one of my long held beliefs on NFL statistics - that yards per rush was almost exactly 4.0 from 1963 through 2002.

[CraigSca]

It seems to me...the YPC is causing the teams to pass more often on 2-3rd down. However...since the quarterback has to throw longer (as well as the defense expective a pass more often in these 2nd/3rd and long situations), you would think comp. percentages would go down. So...after the yards per carry gets fixed, it seems that QB completion percentages need to be toned down across the board as well.

[Daimyo]

Originally posted by amdaily
Daiymo - I updated my chart with three seasons of your stats.

While they are inline with FOF2001, pass attempts are way to high still. As SkyDog has suggested, as better QB's arrive though the draft they will be able to exploit those increased attempts for more yards and a higher rating. So it doesn't look like that the player files are at fault.
Are you accounting for 2k1 having 31 teams and 2k4 having 32 teams when comparing total pass attempts? :)

EDIT: Or did 2k1 have expansion after the first season? Can't even remember...

[CraigSca]

One other thing...I noticed in the NFL 2002 data that the league average 10.5 yards per completed pass. Just looking at the FOF2004 statistics from someone's league posted on the first page of this thread, and after an admittedly cursory look, I saw not a single quarterback who posted an average of 10.5 or lower. ALL of them were higher.

It just seems that passes are being completed too often and for too many yards.

[Daimyo]

I don't have access to FOF2k4 at work, but didn't someone post above that 50% of the starting QB's in the real roster file are rated 5 or above? Accordoing to Jim's help file it should be 3.9% of all total QB rated 5+. At most that would probably be something like 10% of starting QB's rated 5+. If 50% of starting QB's are really 5+ it seems that must obviously be the problem, in which case I invite you try my roster file (sorry to sound like a broken record here, but it seriously fixes the problem for me). If HR based his roster file off the real players file like he said than it will also be inflated just like the real rosters.

For reference here are the player ratings, their meaning, and the frequency they SHOULD occur:

9 - Rare Superstar - 0.3%
8 - Superstar - 0.4%
7 - Near Superstar - 0.6%
6 - Elite Starter - 1.1%
5 - Excellent Starter - 1.5%
4 - Very Good-Plus Starter - 2.6%
3 - Very Good Starter - 3.9%
2 - Good Starter - 12.2%
1 - Replacement-Level Starter (decent backup) - 23.9%
0 - Roster Filler - 53.4%

I would interpret an excellent starting QB to be a guy who could pass for 4000+ yards... (We're talking the top ~4 or 5 QB's in the entire NFL here! That's like half the QB's being Manning quality!) if half the starting QB's are at least that good, you'll probably see 10 of them get 4000 yards every season...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Daimyo
I don't have access to FOF2k4 at work, but didn't someone post above that 50% of the starting QB's in the real roster file are rated 5 or above? Accordoing to Jim's help file it should be 3.9% of all total QB rated 5+. At most that would probably be something like 10% of starting QB's rated 5+. If 50% of starting QB's are really 5+ it seems that must obviously be the problem, in which case I invite you try my roster file (sorry to sound like a broken record here, but it seriously fixes the problem for me). If HR based his roster file off the real players file like he said than it will also be inflated just like the real rosters.

For reference here are the player ratings, their meaning, and the frequency they SHOULD occur:

9 - Rare Superstar - 0.3%
8 - Superstar - 0.4%
7 - Near Superstar - 0.6%
6 - Elite Starter - 1.1%
5 - Excellent Starter - 1.5%
4 - Very Good-Plus Starter - 2.6%
3 - Very Good Starter - 3.9%
2 - Good Starter - 12.2%
1 - Replacement-Level Starter (decent backup) - 23.9%
0 - Roster Filler - 53.4%

I would interpret an excellent starting QB to be a guy who could pass for 3500-4000+ yards... if half the starting QB's are at least that good, you'll probably see 10 of them get 4000 yards every season... Daimyo:

I started with HR's file, which worked just fine in the early seasons, but when the newly-generated draftees started playing, the passing totals started going up. I'll give it a try with yours tonight/tomorrow morning, but I think it is a bigger issue than just the initial player file composition.

[McSweeny]

well if we could get some draft files that fit the suggested rating frequencys wouldn't that fix things? Of course presuming that this problem is talent based

[Ksyrup]

This would explain why QBs are more successful on 2nd and 3rd down passing. The remaining question in my mind is, why are yards per carry so low? I think that is what is causing the passing numbers to be inflated, in combination with inflated QB ratings and possibly fewer injuries, leading to more successful passing attempts by players rated above the norm.

[korme]

Does anyone agree that rushing averages are a bit low?

[Ben E Lou]

Well, ypc has gone up very recently in football apparently, but up until the late 90's, I agree that 4.0 was about the norm. I'm still getting the same rushing yardage averages (around 4.0) that I got in all previous versions of FOF. It was 4.2 in '02, but I wonder if that is an anomaly. Anybody got '01?

[Ben E Lou]

Just found 2K1

4.059ypc

[TroyF]

I'm finding the same things wrong as other people are.

The longer I go into a career, the more bigtime passers there are. In 2020 of my career, there are now 15 4,000 yard passers. To me, the problem isn't the yardage stats. Those can be skewed by the injury setting. I'm having a problem with the QB "ratings"

In 2002, the NFL had 5 guys at a 90.0 or higher rating. In 2003, that number is at 6.

In my FOF2004 league, I'm seeing an average of 12-15 QB's with a 90+ rating. I'm usually seeing 5 at over 100. I'm routinely seeing guys finish their careers with ratings in the mid 90's. That just doesn't happen in real life.

I'm also seeing the lower rushing totals. Rarely do I see a guy go over 1600 yards. Even top notch backs don't have those 1800+ yard seasons.

I think it's a combination of a lot of things, but I do think some of it is in the core game engine. I hope Jim can look into this.

TroyF

[CraigSca]

I'm seeing QBs in my quick-simmed FOF2004 league (I'm in 2008) who aren't really considered great (ratings wise). However, they still complete 50-60% of passes for close to 4000 yards (or more). It seems ALL quarterbacks in FOF2004 can pass for 4000 yards easily, throw a lot of touchdowns, complete 55%-60% of their passes and average higher than the 2002 NFL average of 10.5 yards per completion. The only differentiating statistic I see when it comes to quarterbacks is the number of interceptions thrown.

[Ben E Lou]

2K1 Passing:

58.97 Completion Percentage
6.776 yards per attempt
11.490 yards per completion

[Ksyrup]

It just occurred to me that at some point in the past, I recallJim suggesting that football in the future would become more of a passing-oriented game, with rushing taking a clear back seat to passing in terms of game planning. Does anyone else recall this? I don't remember when this was, or what form it took - it might have been a post, part of an interview, a chat, I just don't remember.

However, if I'm not just dreaming this, perhaps Jim has purposely set the game up so that the further out we go, the more passing-oriented teams get. Now, I'm not sure that in and of itself would explain why the passing attacks are more successful. But, maybe game plans are being set up to maximize each QB's efficiencies, so more and more of them are successful.

Just a thought.

[korme]

I am in 1979, the 15th season of my OPU career. I will examine my own passing/rushing totals after the season and post them here for you all.

[Daimyo]

As anyone else had considerably more luck developing QB's than other positions? I've developed two QB's into studs (one picked 17 and the other at 31) despite neither looking all that special at draft time. Conversely I've had very little luck with other positions. I had a maxed out potential OT who ended up being something like 99/40/40/40.

The OT didn't play much his first two years because of poor currents and he quickly lost potential whereas my QB's didn't lose it so fast. In the help Jim lists QB's as having 5 seasons to peak whereas most other positions happen in years 2 or 3. I wonder if that is partially why drafted QB's tear it up? Maybe studs at other positions get buried in the depth chart early and it stunts their development while QB's almost always eventually develop?

Or maybe the ai puts a premium on OC's with good skill developing QB's since its such a primo position?

[Ben E Lou]

Hmmm...interesting thought.

Just FYI, I'm up to 2033, with the last 8 seasons having been done with injuries=200. Passing has come down a bit, but not to present-day totals. Most recent season totals (2033):

Completion Percentage: 61.2% (higher than normal)
Yard/Completion: 11.5 (right in line with real-life totals)
Yards/Attempt: 7.0 (a little higher than real life)
Rushing Yards/Attempt: 3.9 (in line with pretty much every season but 2K2)

Looks like the problem is becoming isolated to being too high of a completion percentage. Passing and rushing attempts 31 years into the game are still so ridiculously close to real-life, it ain't even worth talking about attempts any more.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by CraigSca
One other thing...I noticed in the NFL 2002 data that the league average 10.5 yards per completed pass.

Be careful here when using team stats. Team net yards passing have sacked yards lost subtracted, but the individual passer getting sacked does not have that subtracted. At least, that is what happens in the NFL does, I have not verified this for FOF2004.

So, we have to be careful when discussing these things, that we are comparing the same numbers. The numbers I used for 2002 only counted the individuals passing totals, thus the 10314 completions for 116201 yards equals 11.27 yds per completion. I believe that most of these discussions are the numbers without sack yards subracted from the team totals.

To preemptively settle the inevitable "the NFL does not do that with team passing stats" posts, look here (http://www.nfl.com/teams/stats/IND/2003/regular). Note that the Colts are shown as having 2433 passing yards, but that Colts QBs have passed for 2488. The Colts have been sacked 8 times, presumably for 55 yards. This discrepancy occurs on every team's stat page.

[Ben E Lou]

Yards per carry so far in the 2003 real NFL season is 4.10.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Passing and rushing attempts 31 years into the game are still so ridiculously close to real-life, it ain't even worth talking about attempts any more.

I beg to differ. I purchased a game meant to simulate the NFL. Not a game which I have to sit back and sim 31 years, or three generations of players, in order to start playing. There is no valid reason why passing attempts should decrease over the span of 30 years. They should be approximently the same in 2003 as they are in 2034.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Samdari
Be careful here when using team stats. Team net yards passing have sacked yards lost subtracted, but the individual passer getting sacked does not have that subtracted. At least, that is what happens in the NFL does, I have not verified this for FOF2004.

So, we have to be careful when discussing these things, that we are comparing the same numbers. The numbers I used for 2002 only counted the individuals passing totals, thus the 10314 completions for 116201 yards equals 11.27 yds per completion. I believe that most of these discussions are the numbers without sack yards subracted from the team totals.

To preemptively settle the inevitable "the NFL does not do that with team passing stats" posts, look here (http://www.nfl.com/teams/stats/IND/2003/regular). Note that the Colts are shown as having 2433 passing yards, but that Colts QBs have passed for 2488. The Colts have been sacked 8 times, presumably for 55 yards. This discrepancy occurs on every team's stat page. My 2001 stats were calculated by adding up the passing totals of every individual QB in the league.

Fyi, the reason I was having copy and paste problems into Excel was that I was using Opera instead of IE. When I switched to IE, everything copied very easily.

Here (http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/stats.nsf) is a great site for NFL stats for a whole bunch of seasons, easily copied into excel.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Yard/Completion: 11.5 (right in line with real-life totals)


FYI...Yards/Comp. in NFL 2002 was 10.5. 11.5 may look "in-line" but 1 yard is actually a huge difference.

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by Ksyrup

However, if I'm not just dreaming this, perhaps Jim has purposely set the game up so that the further out we go, the more passing-oriented teams get. Now, I'm not sure that in and of itself would explain why the passing attacks are more successful. But, maybe game plans are being set up to maximize each QB's efficiencies, so more and more of them are successful.

Just a thought.

That was my initial thought.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by amdaily
I beg to differ. I purchased a game meant to simulate the NFL. Not a game which I have to sit back and sim 31 years, or three generations of players, in order to start playing. There is no valid reason why passing attempts should decrease over the span of 30 years. They should be approximently the same in 2003 as they are in 2034. Ummmm....you have GOT to be kidding me.

NFL 2K2: 14102 rushing attempts
FOF 2K3: 14074 rushing attempts

NFL 2K2: 17292 passing attempts
FOF 2K3: 17480 passing attempts


(The FOF 2K3 numbers came from my saved career with real player names file.)

Are you seriously trying to suggest that you have a problem with that minute of a variance???? :confused:

[CraigSca]

I'd have to give more though whether I accept that Jim purposely made the game to evolve to a more passing-oriented style. However, the still doesn't explain two things.

1) This passing-oriented style hits on day 1 of the simulation...not 20-30 years into it.

2) EVERY QB excels in this situation and rarely gets hurt. Ok...not EVERY QB...but, is anyone finding it hard to draft a pretty darned good quarterback in this game? Is that representative of the NFL in ANY time period?! Since when is a good quarterback a commodity?

[Samdari]

Originally posted by SkyDog
My 2001 stats were calculated by adding up the passing totals of every individual QB in the league.

All of mine were. In fact, I did the 2001 season and got the same numbers as yours.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
FYI...Yards/Comp. in NFL 2002 was 10.5. 11.5 may look "in-line" but 1 yard is actually a huge difference. No. Actually it was 11.266, and 11.490 in 2001. You used team stats, which take into account sacks. FOF team stats to not take into account stats. To compare apples to apples, you've got to add up the individual players' passing yardages, not the team totals.

[korme]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Hmmm...interesting thought.

Just FYI, I'm up to 2033, with the last 8 seasons having been done with injuries=200. Passing has come down a bit, but not to present-day totals. Most recent season totals (2033):

Completion Percentage: 61.2% (higher than normal)
Yard/Completion: 11.5 (right in line with real-life totals)
Yards/Attempt: 7.0 (a little higher than real life)
Rushing Yards/Attempt: 3.9 (in line with pretty much every season but 2K2)

Looks like the problem is becoming isolated to being too high of a completion percentage. Passing and rushing attempts 31 years into the game are still so ridiculously close to real-life, it ain't even worth talking about attempts any more.

Disagreed.3.9 is close, but on the low end of realism. Get that average consistently to 4.0-4.2 and I will be pleased with rushing. But right now it is dipped too low.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by CraigSca
EVERY QB excels in this situation and rarely gets hurt. Ok...not EVERY QB...but, is anyone finding it hard to draft a pretty darned good quarterback in this game? Is that representative of the NFL in ANY time period?! Since when is a good quarterback a commodity?

how do you define a "good qb", or a good player for matter in FOF terms?

[Fritz]

Ben,

my pet theory is that there may be too many plays in a season.

[Samdari]

Repetitive post deleted.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by SkyDog
No. Actually it was 11.266, and 11.490 in 2001. You used team stats, which take into account sacks. FOF team stats to not take into account stats. To compare apples to apples, you've got to add up the individual players' passing yardages, not the team totals.

Whoops...Ok, thanks! That's one less thing to work on then :)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Shorty3281
Disagreed.3.9 is close, but on the low end of realism. Get that average consistently to 4.0-4.2 and I will be pleased with rushing. But right now it is dipped too low. In the four season of my "real" career, it has been:

2003: 4.0
2004: 4.1
2005: 3.9
2006: 4.1

Haven't seen a 4.2 yet, but I'm not sure there's been a 4.2 besides 2002 in the NFL.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Fritz
Ben,

my pet theory is that there may be too many plays in a season.

Well, initial results suggests that is the number that best matches real NFL data.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Ummmm....you have GOT to be kidding me.

NFL 2K2: 14102 rushing attempts
FOF 2K3: 14074 rushing attempts

NFL 2K2: 17292 passing attempts
FOF 2K3: 17480 passing attempts


(The FOF 2K3 numbers came from my saved career with real player names file.)

Are you seriously trying to suggest that you have a problem with that minute of a variance???? :confused:

Perhaps that came out a bit to strong. It turns out Daimyo pointed out a huge flaw in my chart on page one - I did the FOF2001 control without the 32nd team :eek:. So disregard that post. The attempts do check out when adding in the first expansion team.

That also tosses out my theory on run % in the gameplans as being the culprit.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Fritz
Ben,

my pet theory is that there may be too many plays in a season.

NFL 2K2: 14102 rushing attempts
FOF 2K3: 14074 rushing attempts

NFL 2K2: 17292 passing attempts
FOF 2K3: 17480 passing attempts

That's 31,394 plays in real life, versus 31,554 in an FOF season. Pretty close. I don't think an extra 160 plays, spread out over 256 games in a season is going to make the big difference we're seeing.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by Fritz
how do you define a "good qb", or a good player for matter in FOF terms?

Loaded question :) Well...not by ratings, by their statistical output in the game.

Again...just looking at my 2008 statistics, there are 32 qualifying quarterbacks. 16 of them have a passing rating of 90 or more. There were 4 in the NFL last year. Passing is just too efficient in FOF2004.

[Ben E Lou]

Got it amdaily. At this point I think it is a fairly simple combination:

1. completion percentages are too high
2. QB injuries are too low

[Fritz]

then it would seem to be yards per attempt ought to be what is high.

[CraigSca]

Ok....so it's solved then.

Jim, if you could add the following line to your code, everything will be fine:

completionPercentage -= 0.05

:D

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Fritz
then it would seem to be yards per attempt ought to be what is high. It is. In FOF2004, I am seeing a four-season average of 7.0 yards per attempt, while in 2001 and 2002 in the NFL, it was 6.7.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Got it amdaily. At this point I think it is a fairly simple combination:

1. completion percentages are too high
2. QB injuries are too low

Not to throw a wrench into that theory (or potentially bring more embarassement upon myself because I leave out a variable :)), but have you added up the total TD's thrown by all QB's?

In FOF2004, I totaled 755 TD's, vs a FOF2001 league (yes, with all 32 teams :)), that threw for a total of 586 TD's.

Could it be the yards/completion that makes for the 4,000 yards seasons, and this TD discrepiecy that accounts for the high QB ratings?

[John Galt]

Originally posted by CraigSca
Ok....so it's solved then.

Jim, if you could add the following line to your code, everything will be fine:

completionPercentage -= 0.05

:D

Until someone tests Daimyo's league file, can this conclusion be reached? It could be that the player ratings is the culprit and not the statistical output. Lowering the completion percentage would be a bandaid fix for the modified default roster, but I'm just wondering how it would affect fictional leagues with rosters using the Help file distribution.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by John Galt
Until someone tests Daimyo's league file, can this conclusion be reached? It could be that the player ratings is the culprit and not the statistical output. Lowering the completion percentage would be a bandaid fix for the modified default roster, but I'm just wondering how it would affect fictional leagues with rosters using the Help file distribution.

I thought Skydog was testing a 20 year old league. If that's the case, Daimyo's fictional league would be a nice start for a future dynasty, but would have very little impact on what's wrong with the statistical output of the game (although it would comfirm what Skydog is seeing 20 years down the road). Of course...the talent level of draft picks could be skewed as well as the initial player file. If that's the case, all bets are off and the game is, for all intents and purposes as an NFL simulation, "broken" for lack of a better word. I hope not, and I have all the confidence in the world that if that *IS* the case, it will be corrected.

[JonInMiddleGA]

All this talk made me curious (it's been a busy day around here, I hadn't been able to look sooner)

My only completed season, with the current NFL players as my starting crop.

One 4k+ passer (Favre, 4,338, league MVP)
Nine other 3500+ (Brunnel, Gannon, Manning, Carr, Harrington, Culpepper, Green, B.Johnson, Collins)

Looking at my QB's by game
19 QB's played 16 games
4 played 15 (Carter, Weinke, Collins, Maddox, Bulger)
1 played 14 (B.Johnson)
1 played 13 (Garcia)
1 played 12 (Chandler: 9 with Chi, 3 w/Buf)
1 played 11 (Warner)
1 played 10 (Vick)
3 played 9 (Bledsoe, Boller, Dilfer)

I also had 12 RB's at 4.0 YPC or higher (no idea how that matches reality) and 14 w/ 1000+ yards

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by amdaily
Not to throw a wrench into that theory (or potentially bring more embarassement upon myself because I leave out a variable :)), but have you added up the total TD's thrown by all QB's?

In FOF2004, I totaled 755 TD's, vs a FOF2001 league (yes, with all 32 teams :)), that threw for a total of 586 TD's.

Could it be the yards/completion that makes for the 4,000 yards seasons, and this TD discrepiecy that accounts for the high QB ratings? Let's see....

Just looked at one FOF2004 season, got 781 TD passes. There were 634 in 2001, and 694 in 2002. Of course, this may be the result of more factors being added in. Most significantly, I wonder if the AI is throwing inside the red zone more often than in real life, and the jacked up completion percentages result in more TD's. Lower rushing ypc totals than in 2001 and 2002 in the NFL could come into play here as well. The AI may be facing more 3rd and goal from the 4 yard line situations, and then hitting more TD's. That one is probably too hard for us to isolate.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
I thought Skydog was testing a 20 year old league. If that's the case, Daimyo's fictional league would be a nice start for a future dynasty, but would have very little impact on what's wrong with the statistical output of the game (although it would comfirm what Skydog is seeing 20 years down the road). Of course...the talent level of draft picks could be skewed as well as the initial player file. If that's the case, all bets are off and the game is, for all intents and purposes as an NFL simulation, "broken" for lack of a better word. I hope not, and I have all the confidence in the world that if that *IS* the case, it will be corrected. I'm looking at two different leagues now (desktop and laptop running). One is in 2034, the other is in 2007. Most of the specifics I've given have been from the 2007 league (Primelord rosters), BUT the 2034 league numbers are very, very close to numbers at the beginning of the simulation, so there's a problem either way.

[John Galt]

Originally posted by CraigSca
I thought Skydog was testing a 20 year old league. If that's the case, Daimyo's fictional league would be a nice start for a future dynasty, but would have very little impact on what's wrong with the statistical output of the game (although it would comfirm what Skydog is seeing 20 years down the road). Of course...the talent level of draft picks could be skewed as well as the initial player file. If that's the case, all bets are off and the game is, for all intents and purposes as an NFL simulation, "broken" for lack of a better word. I hope not, and I have all the confidence in the world that if that *IS* the case, it will be corrected.

I'm not sure, but it is quite possible that the draft files operate on the talent distribution of the existing league which means it would be a good NFL simulation, but that the initial talent skew messes up the stats. I'm just saying that until someone tests a league file like Daimyo's, then I don't think we can say for certain that the problem is completion percentage (but instead may be the underlying player ratings).

[John Galt]

Originally posted by SkyDog
I'm looking at two different leagues now (desktop and laptop running). One is in 2034, the other is in 2007. Most of the specifics I've given have been from the 2007 league (Primelord rosters), BUT the 2034 league numbers are very, very close to numbers at the beginning of the simulation, so there's a problem either way.

I don't think anyone would dispute that. I think it is better, though, if we can isolate the exact source for Jim to work on.

[Chief Rum]

Touchdowns and completion percentage are both huge parts of the QB rating and cutting them down some would certainly decrease the number of 90+ ratings passers we are seeing.

It might be a good idea to check out both rushing and passing touchdowns and compare them to their NFL totals, and also their ratios to each other.

CR

[Ben E Lou]

Example (end of 2034)

14199 rushing attempts
4.0 yards per carry
17205 passing attempts
61.9 completion percentage
11.6 yards per completion
7.1 yards per attempt

[Samdari]

Wow, in fact FOF2004 is a closer approximation to total plays in NFL 2002 than NFL 2001 is.

NFL 2002: 122.63 plays (rushes + attempts) per game
FOF 2003: 123.26
NFL 2001: 120.35

and so far this year: 120.74

I guess that skews slightly towards too many plays (with 2002 being slightly high?). I think the higher comp% and YPA are the more likely culprits.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by John Galt
I'm not sure, but it is quite possible that the draft files operate on the talent distribution of the existing league which means it would be a good NFL simulation, but that the initial talent skew messes up the stats.Hmmm...hadn't thought of that. Now that I recall, that is how Baseball Mogul works in game-generated players. If you create a superstar shortstop with incredible ratings across the board, the game will generate the occassional guy just like him going forward.

[John Galt]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Hmmm...hadn't thought of that. Now that I recall, that is how Baseball Mogul works in game-generated players. If you create a superstar shortstop with incredible ratings across the board, the game will generate the occassional guy just like him going forward.

Jim knows the answer to this, I'm sure. I just think that is how I would design a game because it would allow the league to drift away from the set talent distribution targets by some amount so that each league and game develops its own personality. Sometimes, your league will move toward passing, sometimes to running, sometimes to offense, and sometimes to defense. Either way, I think testing Daimyo's league will show whether this is the way FOF2K3 works. I would test myself, but I'm work and haven't bought the game yet (because I'm always at work :().

[John Galt]

dola, or then again, Jim could just be using the existing talent distribution over and over. So I can think of at least 3 possibilites:

1) Talent distribution hardcoded (as listed in help file).
2) Talent distribution based on initial league players.
3) Talent distribution based on previous year's players.

If it is 1), then the solution is probably messing with the stats like completion percentage. It it is 2) or 3), the solution probably lies in adjusting the initial ratings.

[amdaily]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Let's see....

Just looked at one FOF2004 season, got 781 TD passes. There were 634 in 2001, and 694 in 2002. Of course, this may be the result of more factors being added in. Most significantly, I wonder if the AI is throwing inside the red zone more often than in real life, and the jacked up completion percentages result in more TD's.

I think you hit the nail on the head!

In FOF 2004 all QB's combined for 778 TD's.
In FOF 2001 all QB's combined for 657 TD's.

As for the red zone, while I can't break it down in terms of run pass (we suspect they must be pass), there are appear to be to many TD's in FOF2004 from the red zone:

Red zone TD's in FOF2004: 913 out of 1533 (60%)
Red zone TD's in FOF2001: 730 out of 1350 (54%).

I haven't ran this test multiple times yet, but a 6% TD differencial sure adds up.

[Samdari]

Five years of our chosen metrics, for those interested in comparing to more than 2002.

Note 1: Pass yds is the sum of QB stats - no sacks.
Note 2: Plays per game is rushes and pass attempts. Sacks and ST plays are not counted.

2002 (32 teams):
Completions: 10314
Attempts: 17292
Yards: 116201
Comp%: 0.5965
YPA: 6.72
YP compl: 11.26
Rushes: 14102
Yards: 59459
YPC: 4.21
Plays/Game: 122.63

2001 (31 teams):
Completions: 9542
Attempts: 16181
Yards: 109639
Comp%: 0.5897
YPA: 6.78
YP compl: 11.49
Rushes: 13665
Yards: 55451
YPC: 4.06
Plays/Game: 120.35

2000 (31 teams):
Completions: 9496
Attempts: 16321
Yards: 110131
Comp%: 0.5818
YPA: 6.75
YP compl: 11.60
Rushes: 13677
Yards: 55843
YPC: 4.08
Plays/Game: 120.96

1999 (31 teams):
Completions: 9567
Attempts: 16760
Yards: 113254
Comp%: 0.5708
YPA: 6.76
YP compl: 11.84
Rushes: 13548
Yards: 52819
YPC: 3.90
Plays/Game: 122.21

1998 (30 teams):
Completions: 8766
Attempts: 15489
Yards: 106086
Comp%: 0.5660
YPA: 6.85
YP compl: 12.10
Rushes: 13568
Yards: 54093
YPC: 3.99
Plays/Game: 121.07

[korme]

Maybe at quick glance I consider rushing stats to be a tad low, then by our own math, it comes out to league average, because in the game, numbers are rounded down, so a 3.9 could be a 4.0, etc. I don't know. Maybe it ought to round up if needed.

[Ben E Lou]

Starting with Daimyo roster...

Year 1:
Completions: 10155
Attempts: 17580
Yards: 106837
Comp%: 0.577
YPA: 6.0
YP compl: 10.5
Rushes: 14255
Yards: 53637
YPC: 3.7


Passing and rushing totals are pretty low.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Shorty3281
Maybe at quick glance I consider rushing stats to be a tad low, then by our own math, it comes out to league average, because in the game, numbers are rounded down, so a 3.9 could be a 4.0, etc. I don't know. Maybe it ought to round up if needed. Worth checking. Going back to my primelord career:

2003: 4.084
2004: 4.130
2005: 3.994
2006: 4.127

There is some rounding down, apparently.

[Ben E Lou]

Year 2:
Completions: 10500
Attempts: 17593
Yards: 114653
Comp%: 0.596
YPA: 6.5
YP compl: 10.9
Rushes: 14352
Yards: 54448
YPC: 3.7

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by John Galt
I'm not sure, but it is quite possible that the draft files operate on the talent distribution of the existing league which means it would be a good NFL simulation, but that the initial talent skew messes up the stats. I'm just saying that until someone tests a league file like Daimyo's, then I don't think we can say for certain that the problem is completion percentage (but instead may be the underlying player ratings).

If Jim's draft files are based on the initial player file then it's even more reason for him to make the initial player file conform to the suggested distribution he published.

Personally, I would highly doubt that the draft's are made this way. If they are, leagues could very quickly skew towards a very non-NFL looking simulation and you would need safeguards to tone down this effect.

More than likely, the draft's are hard-coded based on his Superstar vs. Scrub discribution, and the particular positions that get the "superstar" rating are solely the work of a random number generator.

I could be wrong, but to base the drafts on the current talent distribution of the league sounds unnecessarily complex. Why not let random numbers take care of it for you?

[korme]

Ok, this is not pretty. Season 15 of my OPU ('79), and QBs are very good, albeit with most playing the majority and a ton playing all 16 games. But the stat that stands out? LOOK AT THOSE COMPLETION PERCENTAGES. Geez. Only 5 qualifying Qbs throw less than 60% completion. That is atrocious.


Front Office Football 2004
Passing Statistics

Player Pos Team GP GS Att Cmp Pct Yards Avg Lg TD Int
Coakley, R.J. QB NFK 16 16 557 360 64.6 4798 8.61 50 33 11
Manning, Toby QB BUR 16 16 584 376 64.3 4790 8.20 85 30 14
Grider, Dusty QB ANA 16 16 525 331 63.0 4242 8.08 84 30 7
Ostrowski, Tommy QB LIN 16 16 578 373 64.5 4213 7.28 60 23 12
Hume, Kyle QB TAL 16 16 563 376 66.7 4203 7.46 70 31 9
Minter, Cornell QB BTR 16 16 494 325 65.7 4184 8.46 80 26 7
Cash, Mitchell QB ROC 16 16 565 320 56.6 4121 7.29 80 14 19
Domingo, Reuben QB TOL 16 16 495 348 70.3 4107 8.29 48 30 13
Thornhill, Desmond QB WIC 16 16 616 374 60.7 4099 6.65 51 18 10
Collier, K.C. QB DSM 16 16 583 358 61.4 4074 6.98 96 22 25
Valentin, Luke QB LRK 15 15 489 306 62.5 4055 8.29 78 25 13
Melino, Bucky QB MGM 16 16 545 328 60.1 3933 7.21 79 27 13
Kesi, Al QB SAC 16 16 524 342 65.2 3775 7.20 90 33 14
Madison, Kim QB HON 16 16 517 333 64.4 3732 7.21 80 19 15
Krosney, Marty QB TUC 16 16 509 355 69.7 3704 7.27 47 24 7
England, Eddie QB OKC 16 16 480 311 64.7 3674 7.65 58 19 9
Warren, Lenny QB PRE 14 14 464 285 61.4 3540 7.62 59 30 16
Brennan, Chester QB NJY 16 16 530 341 64.3 3485 6.57 71 21 15
Portilla, Bernard QB KNX 16 16 535 325 60.7 3440 6.42 49 15 12
**Hatcher, Phil QB MAD 13 13 413 268 64.8 3378 8.17 54 19 6
Battle, Wally QB IWC 16 16 477 280 58.7 3348 7.01 46 17 21
Shields, Rod QB CHE 14 13 427 274 64.1 3300 7.72 49 18 15
Giron, Oscar QB LEX 13 13 437 253 57.8 3260 7.45 62 19 4
Sawickis, Melvin QB FAR 16 16 485 280 57.7 3100 6.39 51 20 10
Cushman, Erik QB OMA 11 11 423 255 60.2 2943 6.95 46 13 17
Benson, Quardy QB AUS 16 16 463 290 62.6 2910 6.28 76 15 7
Gray, Trent QB RAL 11 11 358 229 63.9 2579 7.20 57 19 12
Baker, Dave QB SPK 12 12 372 225 60.4 2567 6.90 50 15 9
Weary, Jackie QB EUG 12 11 388 211 54.3 2432 6.26 95 13 12
Scott, T.J. QB MOB 8 8 285 198 69.4 2154 7.55 43 11 11
Valentin, Pete QB MOB 9 8 312 199 63.7 2149 6.88 44 11 10
Wayne, David QB SHR 9 8 324 207 63.8 2125 6.55 49 8 13
Fraley, Floyd QB SHR 8 7 248 157 63.3 1900 7.66 50 10 15
Lofton, Lenny QB CSP 8 8 255 158 61.9 1688 6.61 36 16 10
Wayne, Quentin QB OMA 6 5 227 138 60.7 1482 6.52 72 10 10

Player Pos Team Sck Yards Rating
Coakley, R.J. QB NFK 34 238 103.3
Manning, Toby QB BUR 40 265 97.0
Grider, Dusty QB ANA 36 227 101.7
Ostrowski, Tommy QB LIN 64 422 90.7
Hume, Kyle QB TAL 34 205 100.5
Minter, Cornell QB BTR 52 322 103.8
Cash, Mitchell QB ROC 72 456 73.8
Domingo, Reuben QB TOL 41 249 104.4
Thornhill, Desmond QB WIC 47 309 83.3
Collier, K.C. QB DSM 45 288 77.0
Valentin, Luke QB LRK 44 276 94.7
Melino, Bucky QB MGM 48 315 88.8
Kesi, Al QB SAC 31 175 96.3
Madison, Kim QB HON 45 280 85.9
Krosney, Marty QB TUC 44 294 100.4
England, Eddie QB OKC 44 294 93.3
Warren, Lenny QB PRE 34 207 92.2
Brennan, Chester QB NJY 54 332 84.4
Portilla, Bernard QB KNX 57 352 79.4
**Hatcher, Phil QB MAD 20 115 99.4
Battle, Wally QB IWC 42 260 73.7
Shields, Rod QB CHE 33 205 87.1
Giron, Oscar QB LEX 27 181 92.0
Sawickis, Melvin QB FAR 41 248 81.9
Cushman, Erik QB OMA 24 148 74.7
Benson, Quardy QB AUS 45 295 84.9
Gray, Trent QB RAL 23 146 89.0
Baker, Dave QB SPK 36 232 84.6
Weary, Jackie QB EUG 35 230 71.7
Scott, T.J. QB MOB 20 124 88.2
Valentin, Pete QB MOB 28 169 82.3
Wayne, David QB SHR 25 158 74.0
Fraley, Floyd QB SHR 17 119 75.0
Lofton, Lenny QB CSP 24 143 85.8
Wayne, Quentin QB OMA 11 67 76.2

Att - Attempts, Cmp - Completions, Pct - Completion Percentage, 
Front Office Football 2004
Yards - Passing Yards, Avg - Yards per Passing Attempt, Lg - Longest
Completion, TD - Passing Touchdowns, Int - Passes Intercepted,
Sck - Times Sacked, Yards - Sack Yards Lost, Rate - Quarterback Rating. 

[Ben E Lou]

Shorty:

League totals?

[korme]

Runningback stats from the same season. And you cannot tell me this does not look problematic. The top yardage guys all average less than 4 yards per carry. Simply put, this does_not_happen.


Front Office Football 2004
Rushing Statistics

Player Pos Team GP GS Att Yards Avg Lg TD
Hall, Matt RB TAL 16 16 339 1321 3.8 71 8
Florian, Horace RB RAL 16 16 383 1273 3.3 25 3
Westbrook, Dan RB TOL 16 16 335 1265 3.7 48 9
Walker, Nick RB SPK 16 16 316 1257 3.9 64 8
Rivera, Vernon RB FAR 16 16 313 1238 3.9 31 2
Malicki, Alvin RB TUC 16 16 317 1197 3.7 49 6
Vance, Brian RB MGM 16 16 357 1162 3.2 39 6
Floyd, Renaldo RB PRE 16 16 327 1149 3.5 36 7
Duffy, Burt RB OKC 16 16 293 1103 3.7 58 8
Tyler, Edward RB NJY 16 16 225 1062 4.7 62 4
Nelson, Donny RB EUG 16 16 316 1009 3.1 32 3
Garcia, Willie RB CHE 16 16 264 961 3.6 40 7
Behan, Marty RB BUR 16 16 265 960 3.6 30 8
Peterson, Johnny RB KNX 16 16 207 941 4.5 65 5
Gamboa, Gary RB ROC 16 16 288 931 3.2 39 7
Walero, Ralph RB OMA 14 14 207 894 4.3 45 3
Jarvis, Ike RB CSP 16 16 240 871 3.6 48 6
Talley, Terrible RB SAC 16 16 287 862 3.0 27 4
Gutierrez, Dominic RB IWC 16 16 258 853 3.3 27 4
Husak, Ed RB BTR 16 16 249 822 3.3 22 4
**Woodson, Jerry RB MAD 10 10 182 822 4.5 40 7
Kersey, Perry RB MOB 16 7 158 817 5.1 66 3
Douglas, Lawrence RB LEX 16 16 272 816 3.0 25 5
Lelie, Kent RB DSM 16 16 193 808 4.1 31 7
Logan, Wendell RB WIC 16 16 253 804 3.1 33 8
Lynch, Carlton RB AUS 16 16 271 775 2.8 54 3
Wilkerson, Fred RB ANA 14 14 224 759 3.3 25 4
Goodwin, Ian RB HON 16 16 240 734 3.0 51 3
Walton, Ralph RB LRK 16 16 219 706 3.2 33 6
Williams, Neight RB NFK 16 16 233 698 2.9 29 5
Boone, Artie RB SHR 16 16 195 688 3.5 29 4
Thornton, Don RB MOB 15 9 177 625 3.5 31 2
Bronson, Archie RB LIN 16 13 138 584 4.2 56 4
Clayton, Ronald RB OMA 16 2 136 555 4.0 31 1
Wiggin, William RB SAC 16 0 115 554 4.8 62 5
Cash, Deion RB BUR 16 0 134 529 3.9 53 4
Short, Doug RB AUS 16 0 132 517 3.9 47 0
Massengill, Norman RB SHR 16 0 131 448 3.4 22 2
Glenn, Wayne RB LIN 16 3 137 428 3.1 32 3
Zink, Jon RB NFK 16 0 146 425 2.9 36 2
Fenno, Gary RB BTR 15 0 120 418 3.4 35 1
Gonzalez, Claude RB CHE 16 0 104 408 3.9 55 4
**Skladanowski, EdwardRB MAD 16 4 112 394 3.5 28 4
Reed, Jeff RB CSP 16 0 114 380 3.3 46 2
Jordan, Xavier RB NJY 16 0 116 357 3.0 17 0
Newhart, Cornelius RB DSM 16 0 104 331 3.1 29 2
Meyer, Alonzo RB ANA 16 2 121 324 2.6 18 0
Sell, Renaldo RB LRK 16 0 103 295 2.8 20 4

Att - Rushes, Yards - Rushing Yards, Avg - Yards per Carry, Lg - Longest
Run, TD - Rushing Touchdowns. 

[korme]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Shorty:

League totals?

I'll get to that.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by Shorty3281
LOOK AT THOSE COMPLETION PERCENTAGES. Geez. Only 5 qualifying Qbs throw less than 60% completion. That is atrocious.


Going back to my 2008 league example (X-factor, orginal player file)... Of the 47 quarterbacks who threw 34 passes or more, EXACTLY ONE had a completion percentage less than 50%.

[Ben E Lou]

Looks like something is greatly skewed with rushing stats when lower-talent player files are used (like OPU and Daimyo's). I hadn't been seeing nearly the poor rushing stats that Shorty is getting, but now that I'm using Daimyo's, here we go:

Year 3:
Completions: 10571
Attempts: 17995
Yards: 115956
Comp%: 0.587
YPA: 6.4
YP compl: 10.9
Rushes: 13954
Yards: 52412
YPC: 3.7

[korme]

SkyDog, is there a way to compute these totals so easily, or do I need to use a calculator and do each player one by one?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Shorty3281
SkyDog, is there a way to compute these totals so easily, or do I need to use a calculator and do each player one by one? Go to the "Team Statistics" page. The totals are at the bottom.

I wish ESPN or NFL.com or some other site would do the same. :(

[korme]

Year 15 of an OPU, a good year because this league is now filled out.
Completions: 10995
Attempts: 17576
Yards: 127663
Comp%: 0.625 :eek:
YPA: 7.2 :eek:
YP compl: 11.6 :eek:
Rushes: 13922
Yards: 51432
YPC: 3.6 :eek:

I wonder why these stats are so off when all of these players are basically all draft-generated players at this point?

[Ben E Lou]

Year 4:
Completions: 10534
Attempts: 17584
Yards: 116132
Comp%: 0.599
YPA: 6.6
YP compl: 11.0
Rushes: 14119
Yards: 55573
YPC: 3.9

...and the offensive stats begin to rise....

[Shepp]

Hello everyone... I have tried to read the whole thread and admit not making it through the whole thing but I just wanted to interject one thing that I have noticed....

No one has made any mention of receiver quality in regard to their passing stat analysis.

The QB is very important to the equation but the quality of the guy at the other end of the pass affects this too.

I don't have any proof but I would like to enter the hypothesis that the problem has as much to do with inflated WR abilites as it does with the QB's

[Huckleberry]

I apologize, but I'm not prepared to run through an entire thread of this length.

What was the YPC leaguewide in 2001 and 2002? Why are people freaking out about 3.6 and 3.7 leaguewide YPC? I always thought that was about right.

[korme]

Originally posted by Huckleberry
I apologize, but I'm not prepared to run through an entire thread of this length.

What was the YPC leaguewide in 2001 and 2002? Why are people freaking out about 3.6 and 3.7 leaguewide YPC? I always thought that was about right.

The consensus here is that IRL ypc has nearly always been right at 4.0, with 2002 being an exception with 4.2 ypc. 3.6/.7 is much lower...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Huckleberry
I apologize, but I'm not prepared to run through an entire thread of this length.

What was the YPC leaguewide in 2001 and 2002? Why are people freaking out about 3.6 and 3.7 leaguewide YPC? I always thought that was about right. Five years of our chosen metrics, for those interested in comparing to more than 2002.

Note 1: Pass yds is the sum of QB stats - no sacks.
Note 2: Plays per game is rushes and pass attempts. Sacks and ST plays are not counted.

2002 (32 teams):
Completions: 10314
Attempts: 17292
Yards: 116201
Comp%: 0.5965
YPA: 6.72
YP compl: 11.26
Rushes: 14102
Yards: 59459
YPC: 4.21
Plays/Game: 122.63

2001 (31 teams):
Completions: 9542
Attempts: 16181
Yards: 109639
Comp%: 0.5897
YPA: 6.78
YP compl: 11.49
Rushes: 13665
Yards: 55451
YPC: 4.06
Plays/Game: 120.35

2000 (31 teams):
Completions: 9496
Attempts: 16321
Yards: 110131
Comp%: 0.5818
YPA: 6.75
YP compl: 11.60
Rushes: 13677
Yards: 55843
YPC: 4.08
Plays/Game: 120.96

1999 (31 teams):
Completions: 9567
Attempts: 16760
Yards: 113254
Comp%: 0.5708
YPA: 6.76
YP compl: 11.84
Rushes: 13548
Yards: 52819
YPC: 3.90
Plays/Game: 122.21

1998 (30 teams):
Completions: 8766
Attempts: 15489
Yards: 106086
Comp%: 0.5660
YPA: 6.85
YP compl: 12.10
Rushes: 13568
Yards: 54093
YPC: 3.99
Plays/Game: 121.07

[Daimyo]

With the player generator we can skew talent by position however we want... so we can make QBs "low talent" but make RBs "high talent" or anything in between.

[Huckleberry]

Wow. I had no idea it was that high. Thanks.

[PSUColonel1]

So, without reading this entire thread, has anyone contacted Jim as to what the potential problem is, or if there may be some sort of fix?

[Daimyo]

I was thinking earlier it might base the draft talent distribution off the veteran talent distribution, but I'm pretty sure it does not. Otherwise OPU's would forever be ultra-low talent.

[Ben E Lou]

Year 5 (Daimyo rosters):
Completions: 10825
Attempts: 17853
Yards: 124124
Comp%: 0.606
YPA: 6.9
YP compl: 11.4
Rushes: 14178
Yards: 54681
YPC: 3.8

Passing numbers continue to rise...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by PSUColonel1
So, without reading this entire thread, has anyone contacted Jim as to what the potential problem is, or if there may be some sort of fix? I'm not sure there's a consensus yet what is causing the problem. After Galt's comment about universe generation, and Shorty's very low OPU rushing stats, I'm not sure what to think.

[McSweeny]

just had a thought, maybe the reason passing numbers rise is because of the way quarterbacks and recivers develop as opposed to running backs and maybe defensive backs

[CraigSca]

Actually, that's a good point about WRs.

Of course, that opens up a whole can of worms...could it be that WRs are better across the board, and QBs have remained the same? Could it be that WRs are just not dropping as many passes?

From what I've seen, defensive backs seem to be defending more passes than in past versions. Again, no hard study to prove this, but I'm pretty sure I'm seeing higher totals. Of course, this would push completion percentages in the opposite directionn. My league-high for dropped passes in my 2008 sim is 16. Anyone have dropped pass data for previous versions?

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by Daimyo
I was thinking earlier it might base the draft talent distribution off the veteran talent distribution, but I'm pretty sure it does not. Otherwise OPU's would forever be ultra-low talent.

Good point...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
Actually, that's a good point about WRs.

Of course, that opens up a whole can of worms...could it be that WRs are better across the board, and QBs have remained the same? Could it be that WRs are just not dropping as many passes?

From what I've seen, defensive backs seem to be defending more passes than in past versions. Again, no hard study to prove this, but I'm pretty sure I'm seeing higher totals. Of course, this would push completion percentages in the opposite directionn. My league-high for dropped passes in my 2008 sim is 16. Anyone have dropped pass data for previous versions? In 2019 with FOF4, my league high is 14, with 5 players over 5. Looked at three different seasons of FOF4. Most dropped was 17. Doesn't appear likely that there are less dropped passes.

[Ben E Lou]

Year 6 (Daimyo rosters):
Completions: 10569
Attempts: 17479
Yards: 122016
Comp%: 0.604
YPA: 6.9
YP compl: 11.5
Rushes: 14244
Yards: 55443
YPC: 3.8

Both passing and rushing stayed virtually the same this year...

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by SkyDog
In 2019 with FOF4, my league high is 14, with 5 players over 5. Looked at three different seasons of FOF4. Most dropped was 17. Doesn't appear likely that there are less dropped passes.

In my 2008 league...my league high is 16. I have 8 WRs with 10 or more, and a grand total of 52 WRs with 5 or more. So, it looks like there IS a difference between 2004 and FOF4. However, that should lessen completion percentages, not make them higher.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
In my 2008 league...my league high is 16. I have 8 WRs with 10 or more, and a grand total of 52 WRs with 5 or more. So, it looks like there IS a difference between 2004 and FOF4. However, that should lessen completion percentages, not make them higher. Nah. I'd say it is virtually the same. In the season where a guy dropped 17, there were the 8 with 10+, 51 with 5+. Very similar. (and would also tend to indicate WR talent has NOT changed)

[Ben E Lou]

As far as talent, I know when I get to the 7th round, nearly always the top 10-15 guys by adjusted ratings are QB's.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Shorty3281
YP compl: 11.6 :eek:

This is not that high. I demand you remove this emoticon at once.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by SkyDog
As far as talent, I know when I get to the 7th round, nearly always the top 10-15 guys by adjusted ratings are QB's.

I find this disturbing as well.

[korme]

Good point. But I look at these runningbacks in my league, and they have good ratings like I would see in previous versions, yet their success is drastically lower.

[CraigSca]

One other thing to consider...

Didn't Jim say the grand re-write of the internal game engine for FOF was done in FOF4? I think he also made mention that very little, if anything, has changed regarding the engine in FOF2004. If that IS the case...then it would have to be the draft distribution and initial player file.

It just seems strange that completion %s would be .05 too high across the board and YPCs would be about .3 yards too low.

Could someone who has played into the 2015+ years comment on the number of player with full red ratings bars? From what I remember, this occurred a lot in versions of FOF before FOF4. However, when FOF4 was released, it was quite out of the ordinary to see a player with a full red ratings screen. In the initial player file, at least, I am seeing this a lot again (and this would also be confirmed by some of the distribution data already posted on this thread). Can anyone confirm that this continues to occur via the game's draft files 15-20 years in the future? If so, this may prove the initial player file is out of whack (like we all seem to believe) as well as each year's talent influx via the draft.

[Coffee Warlord]

Regarding the insane completion rate, there's one thing I've noticed, which may be the cause of 2 problems.

In every game I've started, the scout always reccommends an (in my opinion) insane % of screen passes. Usually in the 12-15% area, which seems high to me, considering the next line is for 0-4 yard passes, which is also around 10+% usually.

So figure...roughly 25% of all passes thrown are screens/quick outs. Those are seriously high percentage passes, with usually very low yardarge.

That seems like...a lot, unless your Offensive Coordinator is John Shoop.

[Ben E Lou]

Year 7 (Daimyo rosters):
Completions: 10729
Attempts: 17506
Yards: 125668
Comp%: 0.612
YPA: 7.1
YP compl: 11.7
Rushes: 14037
Yards: 56654
YPC: 4.04

Both passing and rushing take significant increases, and appear to be approaching the numbers I've been seeing across the board. I've got to run now, and will be afk until around 9:30pm. I'll keep testing the Daimyo roster set when i return

[Samdari]

Originally posted by CraigSca
YPCs would be about .3 yards too low.

Hmm, I don't see this. In the NFL the last 5 years, YPC has varied from 11.26 to 12.1. Every game stat I have seen so far has fallen into this range.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by Samdari
Hmm, I don't see this. In the NFL the last 5 years, YPC has varied from 11.26 to 12.1. Every game stat I have seen so far has fallen into this range.

Sorry - I was referring to yards per carry, not yards per catch.

[Daimyo]

Originally posted by Coffee Warlord
In every game I've started, the scout always reccommends an (in my opinion) insane % of screen passes. Usually in the 12-15% area, which seems high to me, considering the next line is for 0-4 yard passes, which is also around 10+% usually.

What is your QB style? (short passing, roll out, or deep passes) I'd guess the ai designs the game plan around the QB style.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by Coffee Warlord
Regarding the insane completion rate, there's one thing I've noticed, which may be the cause of 2 problems.

In every game I've started, the scout always reccommends an (in my opinion) insane % of screen passes. Usually in the 12-15% area, which seems high to me, considering the next line is for 0-4 yard passes, which is also around 10+% usually.

So figure...roughly 25% of all passes thrown are screens/quick outs. Those are seriously high percentage passes, with usually very low yardarge.

That seems like...a lot, unless your Offensive Coordinator is John Shoop.

Hmm...another can of worms rears it's ugly head. :) If too many screen passes are being called, that would dramatically increase completion percentages, but also should lower yardage per pass attempt/completion as well. So...maybe more screen passes are being called = higher completion percentages. Then, longer passes are completed for more yardage than NFL passes, making up for the deficit of the shorter completions (because yards per attempt IS in line with the NFL).

Unfortunately, we'd need to see data by length of pass thrown, only available in the boxscores. Anyone wanna tackle THAT one? :)

[korme]

He is talking about Yards Per Carry. What YPC are you talking about that has an average of 12.1?

[RPI-Fan]

Yards per <b>Completion</b>

[yabanci]

Originally posted by Darkiller
This HAS to be tweaked.

Last testing season played :
12 QBs >4000 yards passsing
1 > 5000 yards.

almost HALF OF THE LEAGUE QBS threw for over 4000 !

Shouldn't we be looking at yards per attempt, not just total yards. If people are seeing too many 4000 yard seasons, it could either be because QBs are making too many passing attempts or are just making too many yards on their attempts. Total passing yards alone doesn't tell you where the problem is.

[RPI-Fan]

We've determined that passing attempts are _about_ right, I believe.

[Pyser]

has anyone taken a look at how many tds have been scored overall, and compared if more are being scored via a pass than a run? from some of the rb numbers i've seen posted, it doesnt look like too many of the top rbs have more than, say, 10 tds, which seems low to me.

so, if the total number of tds for the league is right, then there would be too many passing tds, inflating the qb rating.

and for what its worth, despite all these numbers being thrown around to show whats wrong with jims game, a good amount of the numbers have AMAZED me as to how close to real life this sim can be when its all working right.

[yabanci]

I don't know why he doesn't add some of you guys to the beta test teams so there could be a REAL BETA TEST that would have examined these issues in depth and would have caught not only this, but also TCY rosters not transferring, kick/punt returners not being generated, etc. I don't know what they were doing, but it sounds like the beta testers didn't look at the game in too much depth or detail.

[Pyser]

adding to my post above, IRL last year there were 10 rbs with 10 or more rushing tds. of those 10, 5 had 14 or more rushing tds.

looking at one of my 2k4 years, there were only 2 rbs with over 10 rushing tds, and of those 2, one of them had "only" 10.

[Daimyo]

I had a top 3 RB for about 5 seasons running a 75-offense and his TD numbers were around 3-3-7-3. while his yardage was around 1500 every season. I figured it was just an anamoly. Haven't looked much other than that because i virtually never have more than RB by committee of low draft picks and I was using my own gameplans ( i think you need to exlcusively look at ai gameplans for things like this )

[RPI-Fan]

Without having taken too much of an in-depth look, I agree that RB TD's are quite a bit too low.

[amdaily]

I posted a page or two back that league wide QB TD's are approximently 80-100 too many. We suspect this has to do with red zone TD's which are 6% above average (although it's only suspeted those extra 6% are passing due to the high completion percentages). But to answer your question directly, no one has looked at rushing TD's.

[Mark]

EJ for the Colts has averaged close to 90 catches a season over 3 years. Stephen Davis caught 102 passes in his first season for me with the Panthers. Once I altered the game plan he caught around 50, which I think is closer to reality.

Just looked and Charles Rogers caught 128 passes in his third year for 2157 YARDS and 13 TDs. Harrington threw for 5188 yards.

[Daimyo]

My very first sim season Marvin Harrison caught 155 passes for 2300 yards. In that league both he and Manning had pretty much maxed out ratings.

[Buccaneer]

After skimming through all of this, I am a little concerned that we are trying to come up with analyses based on a predicted result. Like had been alluded to earlier, having a more passing oriented offense 10 to 20 years down the road would perhaps fit the model with all of its complex variables. One should not force into a known static results else you would lose variability and flexibility.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Buccaneer
After skimming through all of this, I am a little concerned that we are trying to come up with analyses based on a predicted result. Like had been alluded to earlier, having a more passing oriented offense 10 to 20 years down the road would perhaps fit the model with all of its complex variables. One should not force into a known static results else you would lose variability and flexibility. I think you're right with regard to 10 or 20 years down the road. I think what people are reacting to, though, is that with the default player file, stats are skewed right outta the box. It isn't a huge deal to me personaly. (This ol' mathematics major just recalibrates his expectations for what statistically makes a "good" or "great" QB. ;)) However, I can understand that some folks want/need more realistic stats to make the game fun.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by Buccaneer
After skimming through all of this, I am a little concerned that we are trying to come up with analyses based on a predicted result. Like had been alluded to earlier, having a more passing oriented offense 10 to 20 years down the road would perhaps fit the model with all of its complex variables. One should not force into a known static results else you would lose variability and flexibility.

I don't necessarily mind the sport evolving, but make sure that the beginning reflects what we have today. If the game cannot accurately reflect the present, how do I know it's ultimate evolution is based on anything but a flawed model the continues to become more and more flawed?

Am I a stickler? I suppose so...but I loved previous versions of FOF and never felt something was wrong. I so much want to love FOF2004 - I just need it to accurately reflect, statistically, what the NFL is today.

[Front Office Midget]

I really think this discussion should have been had a year ago... I thought FOF4 did a horrible job with QB passer ratings and yardage. Actually, after one season of the new game, I thought it was fixed. But I guess not.

I can't believe no one brought this up in depth last year. My QB stats in FOF4 were horribly inflated.

[alterra]

Originally posted by Front Office Midget
I really think this discussion should have been had a year ago... I thought FOF4 did a horrible job with QB passer ratings and yardage. Actually, after one season of the new game, I thought it was fixed. But I guess not.

I can't believe no one brought this up in depth last year. My QB stats in FOF4 were horribly inflated.

Agreed.

[Buccaneer]

Can anyone predict that next season, we will not have 12+ 4,000 yds passers? Who would have predicted two 60+ HRs in one season in 1998? A couple of 5,000+ yds passers are not out of the question either. Same thing with YPC. With defenses becoming bigger, stronger and faster and with backs being very prone to injuries, maybe a 4.0+ ypc will become scarce next season or very soon. Why should 2003 (or 2002) be held up as the most perfectly balanced and acceptable statistical year?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Buccaneer
Can anyone predict that next season, we will not have 12+ 4,000 yds passers? Who would have predicted two 60+ HRs in one season in 1998? A couple of 5,000+ yds passers are not out of the question either. Same thing with YPC. With defenses becoming bigger, stronger and faster and with backs being very prone to injuries, maybe a 4.0+ ypc will become scarce next season or very soon. Why should 2003 (or 2002) be held up as the most perfectly balanced and acceptable statistical year? Because we fear change. Sit down and shut up, old man.









:D

[John Galt]

Originally posted by Buccaneer
Can anyone predict that next season, we will not have 12+ 4,000 yds passers? Who would have predicted two 60+ HRs in one season in 1998? A couple of 5,000+ yds passers are not out of the question either. Same thing with YPC. With defenses becoming bigger, stronger and faster and with backs being very prone to injuries, maybe a 4.0+ ypc will become scarce next season or very soon. Why should 2003 (or 2002) be held up as the most perfectly balanced and acceptable statistical year?

I agree with everything you say. Unfortunately, FOF2K3 ensures that these events happen EVERY time, not just as outlier possibilities. I love games that have drift and predict innovation (like BM moving from having women play to aliens in later years) even when it is a little bizarre. I just think the random drift and unpredictability should work a bit more randomly and unpredictably. Can anyone predict that we won't have any 4000 yd passers next season or that running will only yield 3.7 ypc? Unfortunately, FOF2K3 predicts it won't almost every single time.

[alterra]

My own theory is that passing is way too easy in the red zone (in the game).

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by John Galt
I love games that have drift and predict innovation (like BM moving from having women play to aliens in later years) even when it is a little bizarre.

You're joking, right? Oh, my!

I played the 99 and 2000 versions of BM, and remember women in the league. But ALIENS? Good God! That makes Jim's zodiac signs look like they came out of a scientific journal compared to ALIENS!!!

No offense, Kodos... :cool:

[John Galt]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
You're joking, right? Oh, my!

I played the 99 and 2000 versions of BM, and remember women in the league. But ALIENS? Good God! That makes Jim's zodiac signs look like they came out of a scientific journal compared to ALIENS!!!

No offense, Kodos... :cool:

If I remember right (and my memory could be wrong), you got aliens and robots as GM's, but not as players. I don't think I dreamed it. I thought it was hilarious the first time I saw it 100 years or so into a franchise.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
You're joking, right? Oh, my!

I played the 99 and 2000 versions of BM, and remember women in the league. But ALIENS? Good God! That makes Jim's zodiac signs look like they came out of a scientific journal compared to ALIENS!!!

No offense, Kodos... :cool: I can confirm this (and I think it was in '99 and '00 versions). If you played 30-40 seasons or so, you'd begin to see aliens.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by Front Office Midget
I can't believe no one brought this up in depth last year. My QB stats in FOF4 were horribly inflated.

I think we've already had more discussion in the first week of release of FOF2K4 than we've had about FOF4 since it came out. And to tell you the truth, I think that says something about the quality of the games. I know I barely touched FOF4. But FOF2K4, for whatever reason, just feels like a different and better game.

These are the discussions I remember reading around the time of FOF2 and FOF2K1 that were missing from the last version (or versions if you count FOF2K2). It's great to see everyone getting back into "grognard mode" again.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by John Galt
If I remember right (and my memory could be wrong), you got aliens and robots as GM's, but not as players. I don't think I dreamed it. I thought it was hilarious the first time I saw it 100 years or so into a franchise. John:

I'm 99.9% certain I had an alien as a closer once.

(And I don't want to hear ANY John Rocker or Mark Wohlers jokes!!! :D)

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally posted by Daimyo
What is your QB style? (short passing, roll out, or deep passes) I'd guess the ai designs the game plan around the QB style.

Doesn't seem to matter all that much. I've had stud long passers and dink and dunk passers over the seasons. The screen/short pass percentages seem about the same, with maybe a percentage point variation either way.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by SkyDog
John:

I'm 99.9% certain I had an alien as a closer once.

If you thought Al Hrabosky was an intimidating closer....!

[John Galt]

Originally posted by SkyDog
John:

I'm 99.9% certain I had an alien as a closer once.

(And I don't want to hear ANY John Rocker or Mark Wohlers jokes!!! :D)

That may be. It has been so long. I loved the original BM. I played it into the ground.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by John Galt
That may be. It has been so long. I loved the original BM. I played it into the ground. Same. I'll NEVER forget the greatest pitcher of all-time, Cy Dillon. He won his 600th game :eek: the last week of the regular season of his final season. He finished his career with a 3-hit shutout in Game 7 of the World Series that year. Couldn't have ended his career better.

[albionmoonlight]

Though I know that Jim will be extra careful to make sure that the stats approach FOF2 level normality--I want to put up a small squeaky voice for those who like the passing game. Don't let SD and his thugs bully you into skewing the stats so much that the forward pass ceases to be a viable option in the game.

(We know that's what you are really up to, SkyDog ;) )

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by albionmoonlight
Don't let SD and his thugs bully you into skewing the stats so much that the forward pass ceases to be a viable option in the game.See mckerney's quote below. ;)

[cdunlap]

Has this issue been resolved?, and if so what player file are you guys using?

Thanks

[jbmagic]

are injuries and passing better now on intial player file for fof 2k4 latest version or previous patches? how is it now better?

do you guys recommend injuries at 200 still?

thanks

[sovereignstar]

Did you used to capitalize the 't' in 'thanks' before?

[korme]

yea, jb, i'd use 200 injuries but you have to get used to adjusting your 46 men every week

[jbmagic]

yea, jb, i'd use 200 injuries but you have to get used to adjusting your 46 men every week


thanks shorty

i know this thread is old..

but is the qb passing yards and injuries better now with the newer version of fof if injuries is set to 200?

[sovereignstar]

thanks shorty

i know this thread is old..

but is the qb passing yards and injuries better now with the newer version of fof if injuries is set to 200?
Test it out. Guys like Quiksand and SkyDog didn't get to be so knowledgable about FOF by asking question after question. Simply take the time to test some things out and then share. That's how it works.

[jbmagic]

Test it out. Guys like Quiksand and SkyDog didn't get to be so knowledgable about FOF by asking question after question. Simply take the time to test some things out and then share. That's how it works.


i dont have the game yet..plan to this weekend..


just was curious how the stats are before i get it this weekend

[Franklinnoble]

i dont have the game yet..plan to this weekend..


just was curious how the stats are before i get it this weekend

No harm in asking. That's what the board is here for.

[Buzzbee]

No harm in asking. That's what the board is here for.
I thought it was so that Jeeber could have a feeling of self worth.

[Franklinnoble]

I thought it was so that Jeeber could have a feeling of self worth.

That's an undocumented feature.