OT - Road to the Roses, Fantasy horseracing game

[QuikSand]

We've tossed this around here in the last couple years - and it's time once again:

http://www.roadtotheroses.com/


Can't stop thinking about Kentucky Derby Day? Want to see the best 3-year-old Thoroughbreds in the world charge down the homestretch at Churchill Downs under the famed Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May? Then don't miss this opportunity to get your hands around one of the toughest tickets to find in sports - not to mention a chance to win other premium prizes. Play the 2004 Kentucky Derby "Road to the Roses" Fantasy Challenge! In this free game of skill, fans use their Thoroughbred racing knowledge and handicapping skills or rely on recommendations from our list of handicapping pros to draft a mythical "stable" consisting of:

· 12 horses from the official list of Visa Triple Crown nominees - 10 from an initial draft and two (2) from a supplemental draft.

· Two (2) trainers

· Two (2) jockeys


Your stable will score points based on the results of Kentucky Derby prep races contested throughout the country, starting with the Grade II Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on February 14. The final scoring race in the competition - with the largest number of available points - is the Kentucky Derby on May 1st, 2004. New features to this year's game include the ability to get creative and name your stable, choose your own user name and the opportunity to choose any jockey and trainer that you desire from an expanded listing that includes more than 90 riders and 200 trainers. Also, we've improved the navigation, look and feel to make the game more user friendly. There's no better way to keep track of all the contenders (and pretenders) along the twisting, turning road that paves the way to Louisville on May 1 than to play the Kentucky Derby "Road to the Roses" Fantasy Challenge. Even if you're not in the hunt for the grand prize, you'll have a leg up on your friends and fellow horseplayers on Derby Day, and could turn your keen equine insight into wagering profits or bragging rights for an entire year! Think you're a better trainer than Bobby Frankel or Todd Pletcher? A better racing manager than Demi O'Byrne or Richard Mulhall? Then prove it! Get on the "Road To The Roses" and saddle up for the ride of a lifetime!



This is a contest for some real prizes, and is free to enter. I fully intent to post my thinking here as I develop my list... but I'll offer one statement. If you decide to play, and you win the top prize, and you honestly feel that my input had a lot to do with your winning, I insist that you take me with you to next year's Derby.

With that... Hope some of you have a look - maybe we can keep a group together and watch this as the season goes by (i.e. have a discussion thread as each race weekend arrives).

[rkmsuf]

I've been out of touch since the Breeder's Cup but will focus in on a play...

[Franklinnoble]

I have no real idea which horses are real contenders this year. There have been over 400 nominees to the Triple Crown. How exactly do you come up with a list of 10 by next week?

[rkmsuf]

I have no real idea which horses are real contenders this year. There have been over 400 nominees to the Triple Crown. How exactly do you come up with a list of 10 by next week?

Please tell me you bet regularly into the Golden Gate Fields pool...

[Franklinnoble]

Please tell me you bet regularly into the Golden Gate Fields pool...

I do not.

However, my wife is taking me to Golden Gate Fields for Valentine's Day (she rules). I won't do more than a $2 bet here or there, though... and I'm not too bad when it comes to reading the DRF PP's. Not to mention that my wife is a horse trainer, and is bloody lethal when it comes to judging a horse's conformation, condition, and attitude right before a race.

[QuikSand]

I'll rustle up some links to background on the major players... as I recall, there are a few that work pretty well for this sort of thing.

If you are a member of the online PP service BRISnet, they have past performances for their top 50-75 contenders available, also. Costs a couple of bucks, but well worth it I think -- it really lets you get a sense of who's who.


One piece of global, unsolicited advice... excluse Nick Zito from your trainer pairing at your own peril this year. He is absolutely loaded.

[Chubby]

Entered.

[Franklinnoble]

I'll rustle up some links to background on the major players... as I recall, there are a few that work pretty well for this sort of thing.

If you are a member of the online PP service BRISnet, they have past performances for their top 50-75 contenders available, also. Costs a couple of bucks, but well worth it I think -- it really lets you get a sense of who's who.


One piece of global, unsolicited advice... excluse Nick Zito from your trainer pairing at your own peril this year. He is absolutely loaded.

How do the BRISnet PP's compare to the ones you read in the DRF? How much does it cost? Do you have a monthly subscription, or do you pay for just what you read? Isn't a bris a jewish circumcision?

I know Zito's got some runners this year (I'm not TOTALLY oblivious... just haven't been following as close as most years)... what do you think of Baffert's and Lukas's stables? I think Baffert is probably hurting bad after the demise of the Thoroughbred Corporation.

[Chubby]

Once guys set your stables I'll be interested to see if we have any of the same horses.

[The Afoci]

However, my wife is taking me to Golden Gate Fields for Valentine's Day (she rules). I won't do more than a $2 bet here or there, though... and I'm not too bad when it comes to reading the DRF PP's. Not to mention that my wife is a horse trainer, and is bloody lethal when it comes to judging a horse's conformation, condition, and attitude right before a race.

My future wife is horse trainer in training currently. She is either deadly and picks about two or three box trifectas or she can't pick a show to save her life. Needless to say, we have a few two dollar bets to test the waters until about race 4...

[QuikSand]

How do the BRISnet PP's compare to the ones you read in the DRF? How much does it cost? Do you have a monthly subscription, or do you pay for just what you read? Isn't a bris a jewish circumcision?

-Similar, with a few additions that I really like.

-$3 per card for the top-of-the-line PPS, with various promotions at any time

-I pay for what I download

-Yes, it is... weird, eh?

[QuikSand]

Here is a nice link that might be helpful in building a stable... it shows a few "expert" rankings of the top contenders, including their trainers... that might be enough to work with for the fairly uninitiated.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2004/derby_coverage/derby_news/derby_news_01012004.html

[Bill Abner]

I'm still ticked that Funny Cide won 3-year old of the year over Empire Maker.

This does look interesting, though.

[QuikSand]

My first draft of my list of ten horses:

ACTION THIS DAY
BIRDSTONE
CHAPEL ROYAL
EUROSILVER
GRADEPOINT
LION HEART
MASTER DAVID
READ THE FOOTNOTES
SECOND OF JUNE
SIR OSCAR
SMARTY JONES
ST AVERIL
TAPIT
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
TIGER HUNT

If you're a real sticker for math, you might notice that my first draft of ten includes fifteen horses. I have some more work to do... and in all likelihood, I'll end up adding at least one who isn't even on this list yet.

[Cringer]

My first draft of my list of ten horses:

ACTION THIS DAY
BIRDSTONE
CHAPEL ROYAL
EUROSILVER
GRADEPOINT
LION HEART
MASTER DAVID
READ THE FOOTNOTES
SECOND OF JUNE
SIR OSCAR
SMARTY JONES
ST AVERIL
TAPIT
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
TIGER HUNT

If you're a real sticker for math, you might notice that my first draft of ten includes fifteen horses. I have some more work to do... and in all likelihood, I'll end up adding at least one who isn't even on this list yet.

Wow, i was just goning to randomly select names.
:D

[Chubby]

My first draft of my list of ten horses:

ACTION THIS DAY
BIRDSTONE
CHAPEL ROYAL
EUROSILVER
GRADEPOINT
LION HEART
MASTER DAVID
READ THE FOOTNOTES
SECOND OF JUNE
SIR OSCAR
SMARTY JONES
ST AVERIL
TAPIT
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
TIGER HUNT

If you're a real sticker for math, you might notice that my first draft of ten includes fifteen horses. I have some more work to do... and in all likelihood, I'll end up adding at least one who isn't even on this list yet.


Cool, I have a bunch of horses on my roster that you have listed :)

[QuikSand]

I think Nick Zito and Todd Pletcher have the strongest stables from where we stand right now, but nearly every year both Baffert and Lukas manage to turn one or more of theirs into contenders...so they would be sensible trainer picks as well. And then if you like a certain horse, picking his trainer to "double up" isn't an awful idea either. Several ways to go.

[Chubby]

Well like you said, to not take Zito would be kinda dumb with the # of top horses he was this year...

[Raven Hawk]

Ok,

I'm hooked. I'm a relative beginner, so I may have some questions for you. But, this sounds like fun. :)

It gives me more reasons to go to Arlington Park.

[Raven Hawk]

Dola,

From the rules, it would seem silly not to pick up Pletcher as a trainer as well. Since he has nominated 35 or so horses for Triple Crown, doesn't that mean that you have more chances of scoring trainer points? Just my first question of many. I see that Baffert has quite a few nominations (17) as well.

[Raven Hawk]

Ok, I've already spent too much time on this. :)

Here are my top 15.

Eurosilver
Action This Day
Birdstone
Lion Heart
Second of June
St Averil
Tiger Hunt
Mr Jester
Master David
Capac
Sir Oscar
Hosco
Perfect Moon
Shiloh Bound
Tapit

[QuikSand]

A tough call is whether to include HALFBRIDLED. She has looked very good, and may well run against the boys, but since the contest doesn't include any of the fillies-only prep races, I think the most sensible thing to do is to exclude her, and use her as a supplemental pick later if it looks like she is rolling toward the Derby rather than the Oaks.

[rkmsuf]

Mandella has a good deck with Minister Eric, Action This Day and maybe Spellbinder. If those develop I believe he steers the Halfbridled connections in another direction.

Yes the victory from post 14 was impressive in the BC but the figures leading up to the race were nothing special...and yes I'm bitter...

[QuikSand]

I, on the other hand, used ACTION THIS DAY as my key horse in the BC Juvenile, my biggest hit of the day. (Owing to my cowardly bet on CAJUN BEAT in the sprint) I probably should be partisan for this horse at this point, but find myself looking elsewhere.

I like what I have seen of ST AVRIL so far, and I'd like for READ THE FOOTNOTES to have some distance ability. Anyone know or read anything about the Euro breeding of the latter? If they can get Smoke Glacken's speed into the blood of a horse with some staying power, they might really have something. (I think SG might end up being a great sire for precocious brilliant colts)

[rkmsuf]

I, on the other hand, used ACTION THIS DAY as my key horse in the BC Juvenile, my biggest hit of the day. (Owing to my cowardly bet on CAJUN BEAT in the sprint) I probably should be partisan for this horse at this point, but find myself looking elsewhere.

I like what I have seen of ST AVRIL so far, and I'd like for READ THE FOOTNOTES to have some distance ability. Anyone know or read anything about the Euro breeding of the latter? If they can get Smoke Glacken's speed into the blood of a horse with some staying power, they might really have something. (I think SG might end up being a great sire for precocious brilliant colts)

Smoke Glacken was my favorite sprinter of his day...the DeFrancis Dash hasn't been the same since.

I've read snippets hinting at that very distance ability for Read the Footnotes but I can't recall the specifics. That sire and the highish dosage has to make you wonder though.

I'm going crazy trying to find a way to leave off Eurosilver but I've come to the conclusion that would be foolish. For the record I'm not a Zito bandwagon rider but as much as it pains me I can't discount him...

[rkmsuf]

dola

as far as the West I've only settled on Borrego and Master David thus far but St. Averil is interesting...

[Chubby]

Here is my roster, didn't post it earlier so I could see how I matched up with QS' picks. I haven't changed them since I posted "Entered"...

Horses:
Action This Day*
Birdstone*
Chapel Royal
Cuvee
Eurosilver*
Lion Heart*
Read The Footnotes
St Averil
Tapit
The Cliff's Edge*

(* = active at the moment)


Jockeys:
Jerry Bailey
Kent Desormeaux

Trainers:
Bob Baffert
Nick Zito

[Chubby]

dola, is there an online Racing Form? I'd feel kinda dumb if I started a horse and he wasn't even racing that weekend :(

[QuikSand]

Chubby, you can check it out at DRF.com

In fact, here's an article from the DRF online, covering the Sham Stakes from this weekend - where four nice contenders all ran pretty well, with MASTER DAVID finishing on top. (And I do love horses who can rally back after being passed)

hxxp://www.drf.com/news/article/53252.html

[rkmsuf]

Chubby, you can check it out at DRF.com

In fact, here's an article from the DRF online, covering the Sham Stakes from this weekend - where four nice contenders all ran pretty well, with MASTER DAVID finishing on top. (And I do love horses who can rally back after being passed)

hxxp://www.drf.com/news/article/53252.html

It was a good effort but by all accounts was a fairly moderate pace. Good race but you could definately make the case that Action This Day was compromised and short. I'm leaving off Action This Day so everyone else should take him to the bank...it's a lock now...

[Chubby]

Chubby, you can check it out at DRF.com

In fact, here's an article from the DRF online, covering the Sham Stakes from this weekend - where four nice contenders all ran pretty well, with MASTER DAVID finishing on top. (And I do love horses who can rally back after being passed)

hxxp://www.drf.com/news/article/53252.html

awesome, thanks! bookmarked!

[Raven Hawk]

Ok, here's what I decided to go with:

Birdstone*
Capac
Eurosilver
Hosco
Lion Heart*
Master David*
Mr Jester
Second of June*
Shiloh Bound*
St Averil

Trainers:
Zito
Mandella

Jockeys:
Shane Sellers
John Velazquez

I really fretted over Action This Day, Tiger Hunt, and Sir Oscar. I figured that I could cover the Action This Day/Halfbridled angle by taking Mandella as a trainer. I know that he only has 7 horses nominated, but 4 of them look strong.

Tapit's injury scared me away and I decided to wait until supplemental to pick him up if he showed well in Florida.

Shiloh Bound is my longshot, he's been doing well and seems to have the competitive grit that I love in a horse. His 3 consecutive wins have not been by much, but he seems to be able to do just enough to win. Hopefully he races well at Risen Star this weekend.

* = Active

[Chubby]

Yeah I read about Tapit's injury, it doesn't seem serious but you never know... I still went with him :)

[QuikSand]

There are some interesting horses in this year's crop who have yet to prove themselves over any distance. HOSCO is one of them, and I will be betting against, due to breeding concerns and the fact that he was just "holding on" at 6f his last two times out.

[FishFan]

From the thread I posted earlier (http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showthread.php?t=21117)

Right now, here's my preliminary stable:

Second of June - Cesare
Lion Heart - Biancone
Birdstone - Zito
Action This Day - Mandella
Cliff's Edge - Zito
Tapit - Dickinson (the Mad Scientist)
St. Averil - Becerra
Read The Footnotes - Violette
Master David - Frankel
Eurosilver - Zito

First few out:

Minister Eric - Mandella
Halfbridled(f) - Mandella
Spellbinder - Mandella
Hosco - O'Neill
Grand Score - Ward
Capac - Bell

Right now my trainers are Mandella and Zito; I am undecided on my jockeys.

[FishFan]

A note on Tapit. Dickinson is very, very conservative with his horses and will only run them if they are 100%. But, if he stays on the Derby trail and that horse winds up in the gate on Derby day, I will definitely put a chunk of change on him. Dickinson will only run that horse in the Derby if he really, really likes his chances.

I'll probably tweak my above list before this weekend's races, including another Mandella horse. While Pletcher is loaded with a ton of horses, I don't see one horse in his barn that can get it done. But, I still might replace Mandella with Pletcher at the trainer position.

[rkmsuf]

A note on Tapit. Dickinson is very, very conservative with his horses and will only run them if they are 100%. But, if he stays on the Derby trail and that horse winds up in the gate on Derby day, I will definitely put a chunk of change on him. Dickinson will only run that horse in the Derby if he really, really likes his chances.

I'll probably tweak my above list before this weekend's races, including another Mandella horse. While Pletcher is loaded with a ton of horses, I don't see one horse in his barn that can get it done. But, I still might replace Mandella with Pletcher at the trainer position.

I'm very skeptical of Tapit's usefulness in this contest. No one questions Dickinson's ability to ready a horse but the 3 yo, Triple Crown scene is all new to him. Maybe the horse has ability but it's already started with the mild ailments. Throw in another prep race and who knows how conservative they get...it has to go perfect which is unlikely...

I do agree if he shows up at Churchhill it's a clear sign you'll get a top effort though...

[FishFan]

They are still pointing the horse to the G2 Louisiana Derby on Mar. 7 or the G1 Florida Derby on Mar. 13. He's just skipping the FoY or Risen Star, which won't kill you if you have other candidates in those races. If I had to pick a Derby favorite for myself right now, it would be TAPIT.

[rkmsuf]

They are still pointing the horse to the G2 Louisiana Derby on Mar. 7 or the G1 Florida Derby on Mar. 13. He's just skipping the FoY or Risen Star, which won't kill you if you have other candidates in those races. If I had to pick a Derby favorite for myself right now, it would be TAPIT.

The 1.80 dosage is certainly encouraging. I was a big fan of Pulpit back when he ran the big figs...

[FishFan]

Quik:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/51951.html
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/tc/contenders/detail.asp?ContenderID=1447

[rkmsuf]

Quik:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/51951.html


"As a stallion, Smoke Glacken is dominating his mares..."

I'd want them to say that about me when I was a stud...

[FishFan]

Heh.

Sellers, Solis or Smith as my second jockey to Bailey?

[rkmsuf]

I went with Bailey and Solis.

Solis because of the Frankel connection. I wanted to get away from Bailey but it's a guessing game so I went with him since he usually ends up on live mounts no matter the connections...obvious play but can't make much of a case for anything else.

I really don't like Smith and who is Sellers on right now?

[FishFan]

Sellers is on Cliff's Edge and Fire Slam.

[FishFan]

Solis is also on a Mandella horse, MINISTER ERIC, who is returning from a layoff next month.

[rkmsuf]

Those are two contenders...go with Sellers and Solis...screw Bailey...

[rkmsuf]

Solis is also on a Mandella horse, MINISTER ERIC, who is returning from a layoff next month.

Maybe he can improve and beat his stablemate this time...supposedly the Minister has fired a couple good works...

[FishFan]

Yes, MINISTER is the horse that will break into my top 10 and knock out someone else. SECOND OF JUNE?

[rkmsuf]

I have Second of June in there for the mere fact that many probably won't. He's a June foal named after the trainers birthday. No June foal has won the Derby at least in 25 years. I'm bucking all the trends here...

You'll like this article...it also has a blurb about Mike Gill and Tapit...

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=20171

[FishFan]

So, this horse could win the Kentucky Derby before he is literally three years old. That would be an accomplishment. I'll check out the article.

[rkmsuf]

As a bonus in this thread we literally have the rare correct usage of "literally"...

[FishFan]

Weird to see sons of SILVER CHARM already training and winning races. Great read and interesting to note that TAPIT had a reported $3mil purchase offer.

[rkmsuf]

Gill is a total wild card. He's been banned or denied stalls up and down the East coast for raiding the claiming races at Gulfstream, Calder, Delaware(and more) and posting ridiculous winning percentages. He'll claim for like 16K and drop the horse to 6250 or something to steal the purse. He deals in volume and the fellow horsemen detest him.

Silver Charm was one of my all time favorites. After his Santa Anita Derby I rode him(figuratively) in the Derby and Preakness and was heartbroken he lost the Belmont. He by far was the most deserving of the several Triple Crown near misses of late.

The only other time I was actually emotionally invested that I can recall was when Dare and Go beat Cigar...

Cigar, Lure and Silver Charm top my list that comes to mind right now...

[FishFan]

POINT GIVEN was the most deserving of the Triple Crown near misses. A insane speed-biased track on Derby day allowed MONARCHOS to score an upset. To this day, I think POINT GIVEN is the best horse I have ever seen. A true freak.

[rkmsuf]

POINT GIVEN was the most deserving of the Triple Crown near misses. A insane speed-biased track on Derby day allowed MONARCHOS to score an upset. To this day, I think POINT GIVEN is the best horse I have ever seen. A true freak.

If that's the case Point Given should have romped. Monarchos is a dead closer and would have likely failed had the track been speed biased.

Rarely is a Derby affected by a bias...

Point Given was talented but in my opinion no where near the racehorse Silver Charm was; I guess that's what racing is about...opinions...

[FishFan]

I came real close to hitting the superfecta that year.

From what I remember from watching the undercard that day, hardly anyone overcame the early leaders. I recall standing on top of a concession trailer, watching MONARCHOS get away and thinking no one is going to catch him today. The track was just not set up for horses to rally.

[rkmsuf]

I came real close to hitting the superfecta that year.

From what I remember from watching the undercard that day, hardly anyone overcame the early leaders. I recall standing on top of a concession trailer, watching MONARCHOS get away and thinking no one is going to catch him today. The track was just not set up for horses to rally.

According to this he was outrun for 6 furlongs. Look at other Monarchos races...clearly a closer. Balto Star would have won on any kind of conveyor belt...even Invisble Ink closed for a piece...

Silver Charm was was more versitle and had a certain Cigar like quality to contest a fast pace, stalk or come from the second flight...

MONARCHOS, bumped by POINT GIVEN at the start and forced in on JAMAICAN RUM, was outrun for six furlongs, raced five or six wide, commenced a sweeping run five abreast on the second turn, came out a bit farther entering the stretch, caught CONAGREE approaching the final sixteenth and drew clear under steady left-handed encouragement. INVISIBLE INK, unhurried to the far turn, moved up between foes approaching the stretch, angled outside the winner to secure room in the upper stretch, couldn't menace MONARCHOS but closed with good determination to wear down CONAGREE for second. CONAGREE, in hand early while the way into the final furlong but weakened gradually thereafter. THUNDER BLITZ, bumped at the start when BALTO STAR came out, was outrun to the far turn while along the inside, angled between rivals soon after while advancing, split foes approaching the final quarter, then improved position with a mild late run. THUNDER BLITZ returned bleeding from the mouth. POINT GIVEN broke to the inside bumping the winner, moved up steadily to gain a striking position five wide on the backstretch, made a threatening run on the second turn, then flattened out when straightened for the drive. JAMAICAN RUM, bumped at the start and squeezed back, was outrun for seven furlongs while racing well off the inside, leaned in while advancing six wide tightening it up on DOLLAR BILL at the three-eighths pole, then closed some ground while not a threat. AP VALENTINE, in behind rivals while unhurried into the backstretch, was checked when bumped by TALK IS MONEY at the half-mile ground, steadied between foes and was shuffled back at the three-eighths pole and rallied belatedly. EXPRESS TOUR settled in striking position while near the inside between foes on the backstretch, made a menacing run after angling out slightly on the second turn, then failed to sustain the needed momentum. FIFTY STARS, outrun until the stretch while in behind rivals, angled out at the eighth pole but wasn't a factor. STARTAC failed to reach contention and was eight wide on the second turn and into the stretch. MILLENIUM WIND, forwardly placed along the rail, was checked behind SONGANDAPRAYER about the five-sixteenths pole and failed to threaten thereafter. ARCTIC BOY, squeezed a bit at the start, failed to threaten. SONGANDAPRAYER was hustled to the front along the rail soon after the start, made the pace under pressure to the second turn, then tired from the effort. BALTO STAR forced the pace between rivals for seven furlongs and gave way. DOLLAR BILL, angled in behind horses soon after the start, eased out a bit on the backstretch, was forced to take up sharply, lost his action at the three-eighths pole when in tight quarters and was finished. KEATS pressed the leaders three wide to the far turn and gave way thereafter. TALK IS MONEY exchanged bumps with AP VALENTINE leaving the half-mile ground, gave way soon after, was distanced before going a mile and eased through the stretch. A foul claim by rider of INVISIBLE INK against the winner for alleged interference at the quarter-mile ground was disallowed.

[FishFan]

Wonder which race I was watching. I must have still been upset about my horse, DOLLAR BILL, who clearly was out of the running way before entering the stretch.

[FishFan]

I was thinking of WAR EMBLEM's run...

[rkmsuf]

Wonder which race I was watching. I must have still been upset about my horse, DOLLAR BILL, who clearly was out of the running way before entering the stretch.

Dollar Bill had the exciting talent of getting into some sort of trouble in 90% of his races...

[FishFan]

Oh, yeah. I'm still waiting for the perfect trip for him, but I think he's currently out of training right now in Frankel's barn.

[rkmsuf]

They are talking me into him...105 Beyer number; wasn't aware that race was so fast...

http://www.drf.com/news/article/53293.html

[FishFan]

READ THE FOOTNOTES was one of my first "locks" for this contest. I am really looking forward to this weekend's races.

[rkmsuf]

I'm on the fence...if I leave him out it ensures a 10 length romp over my Second of June in the Fountain of Youth. If I use him he's up the track...I can guess which way you are rooting for...

[FishFan]

I'll keep both those horses in my barn so I don't mind. :)

[rkmsuf]

Didn't use him...this will be interesting...

[rkmsuf]

dola

I don't know why I find this amazing but in 1999 Charismatic opened at 4-1 in Pool 1 of the Future Wager...seems odd...

PREVIOUS PAYOUTS

Year Winner Pool 1 Pool 2 Pool 3 Derby
2003 Funny Cide $188 $120.80 $107.40 $27.60
2002 War Emblem $7.60 $16 $24 $43
2001 Monarchos $36.60 $13 $15.80 $23
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus $27.80 $26.40 $8 $6.60
1999 Charismatic $10.20 $30.20 $26.60 $64.60


EDIT --- nevermind...just realized he must have been in the "field"...

[FishFan]

That explains WAR EMBLEM's $7.60 price in pool one, too.

[QuikSand]

READ THE FOOTNOTES is pegged at 20-1 in the opening round of Derby future betting, this weekend. Nice.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/53276.html


2004 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Official Field - Pool One

No. Name Odds
1 Action This Day 15-1
2 Birdstone 15-1
3 Borrego 30-1
4 Capac 50-1
5 Eurosilver 10-1
6 Fire Slam 30-1
7 Gradepoint 50-1
8 Gran Prospect 50-1
9 Halfbridled (f) 20-1
10 Lion Heart 15-1
11 Lucky Pulpit 50-1
12 Master David 20-1
13 Minister Eric 30-1
14 Mr. Jester 30-1
15 Read the Footnotes 20-1
16 Second of June 12-1
17 Shaniko 50-1
18 Silver Wagon 15-1
19 Sir Oscar 30-1
20 St Averil 20-1
21 Tapit 15-1
22 The Cliff's Edge 20-1
23 Tiger Hunt 30-1
24 All Other 3-y-o's 3-1


Actually, the field bet at 3-1 would be pretty spicy, too... but I reckin that will come down a bit, probably to 5-2 or so. But no individual horse in single digits... that's a first.

GRADEPOINT might be worth a bomber, too.

[FishFan]

MASTER DAVID and MINISTER ERIC aren't bad prices.

Don't know that much about GRADEPOINT.

[FishFan]

Dola.

Are there expected entries for the FoY, Risen Star, and Hutcheson this weekend anywhere? I know READ THE FOOTNOTES and SECOND OF JUNE are likely for the FoY.

[rkmsuf]

Outside of the field any of them is an overlay. If your horse isn't in the field this is the leg you bet it. I'm not sure how you come up with the bet but overall(exept for Fupeg) Derby day odds have been better...

[QuikSand]

I'm not sure how you come up with the bet but overall(exept for Fupeg) Derby day odds have been better...

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Surely you're not saying that the "field" bet is a bad bet just because individual horses from the field who went on to win the Derby went off at higher race-day prices than the "field" bet...

[QuikSand]

READ THE FOOTNOTES, by brilliant speedster Smoke Glacken, has clocked a nice win in the Remsen Stakes on 29 Nov 03, clipping the 1 1/8 miles in 1:50-3, and earning a very respectable speed figure for the effort (BRIS gives him a 109). He is a front-running type, but maybe not need-the-lead type (he sat just behind another horse in the Remsen, running from PP #9, before taking the lead at about the half mile). With Bailey a commited mount, he'll get good handling, and should LOVE the surface at Gulfstream Park.

When he won the Nashua Stakes in early November (also at Aqueduct) he led the whole way, set a solid pace of :46-1 and still finished clear.

Knocks would be the questionable stamina influence -- he has Euro underbreeding (out of Baydon Belle, who in turn was by French broodmare Al Nasr, whose average winning distance was well over a mile) but it's questionable how much classic influence he might pick up there. He does have a "qualifying" dosage index of 2.00, but the speed influences are everywhere (daddy's line is to Mr. P by way of Two Punch). He gets his stamina points exclusively from Northern Dancer, who is a 4x4 cross for him, but other influences on the dam side suggest a bit more stretch might be okay (Caro and Nearco).

All in all - I can't imagine setting up a stable for this contest without him, he ought to assume the role taken by BOOKLET last year -- definitely a tough customer on the front end in Florida and maybe also in the Blue Grass (thinking ahead a bit) where he'd at the very least be tough to pass. Even if he doesn't have 1 1/4 in him, he's bound to catch you some points in this multi-week contest.

[QuikSand]

Thirteen dual qualifiers in this year's field... though we won't see them all carry forward. That's the most I can recall.

[QuikSand]

One minor thing to keep in mind with READ THE FOOTNOTES - Jerry Bailey jumped off him in last years Champagne to instead ride Zito's BIRDSTONE (good move). Odds are pretty good that even if this horse makes it to the Derby, he'll have another rider.

I'd nominate Edgar Prado - he'd handle him perfectly, and doesn't seem to have a high profile mount at the moment.

[QuikSand]

Well.. here is the QuikSand Ranch, 2004 edition:


ACTION THIS DAY
BIRDSTONE
» EUROSILVER
GRADEPOINT
MASTER DAVID
» READ THE FOOTNOTES
» SECOND OF JUNE
» SILVER WAGON
» ST AVERIL
TAPIT

Edgar Prado
Jerry Bailey

Nick Zito
Richard Mandella

[FishFan]

Here's my confirmed stable:

1) READ THE FOOTNOTES
2) SECOND OF JUNE
3) ST AVERIL
4) TAPIT
5) THE CLIFF'S EDGE
6) BIRDSTONE
7) EUROSILVER
8) LION HEART
9) MASTER DAVID
10) MINISTER ERIC

My Jockeys
1) Alex Solis
2) Jerry Bailey

My Trainers
1) Nick Zito
2) Richard Mandella

I hope the exclusion of ACTION THIS DAY does not come back to bite me in the ass. I can always add him in as a supplmental selection. The three horses I have different that Quik's stable are LION HEART, MINISTER ERIC, and THE CLIFF'S EDGE. This was a tough year to narrow a good crop of 15-20 horses down to 10.

[Chubby]

drf doesn't have the pages up for the 1st races in the contest yet, should be up tomorrow i would assume. will have to see if i need to make any last second adjustments to my starting lineup.

[Raven Hawk]

Hey! Can an ignoramus like myself get a little help. :)

>The 2004 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
>Official Field - Pool One

Are these odds on the horse making the field, or on them winning the derby?

Also, its good to know that I made a better decision than I thought I did. I thought that taking Mandella as a trainer may not have been smart. I'm glad to see that Quik and Fish did the same.

One last thing . . . let's say somebody wanted to make an online wager on a horse race . . . does anybody know a good place to do so, or should said person stop by the OTB?

Edit: Poor grammar.

[Chubby]

Hey! Can an ignoramus like myself get a little help. :)

>The 2004 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
>Official Field - Pool One

Are these odds on the horse making the field, or on them winning the derby?

Also, its good to know that I made a better decision than I thought I did. I thought that taking Mandella as a trainer may not have been smart. I'm glad to see that Quik and Fish did the same.

One last thing . . . let's say somebody wanted to make an online wager on a horse race . . . does anybody know a good place to do so, or should said person stop by the OTB?

Edit: Poor grammar.

winning the Derby

[rkmsuf]

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Surely you're not saying that the "field" bet is a bad bet just because individual horses from the field who went on to win the Derby went off at higher race-day prices than the "field" bet...

I'm saying that if you like someone in the field you will most definately get better odds either in pool 2 or pool 3 and on Derby Day.

[QuikSand]

I'm saying that if you like someone in the field you will most definately get better odds either in pool 2 or pool 3 and on Derby Day.

Sure, I can't disagree with that. Betting the field because you like one partiular horse not listed is foolish. Betting the field because you think that the listed horses are collectively vulnerable to a late-developing entry might not be.

[rkmsuf]

Took a couple late bloomers. I'm hoping Mr. Jester can get some points on the Rebel trail...

Leaving off Read the Footnotes is very risky but perhaps Second of June, Eurosilver, or Master David asserts himself in the Florida Derby. Double bonus if Second of June comes up big in the Fountain of Youth...

In the West it's a bunch of logical contenders excluding stablemates Action This Day and Minister Eric.

There's potential for disaster or an interesting lineup...

My Horses
» BIRDSTONE
BORREGO
EUROSILVER
» GRAND SCORE
» IMPERIALISM
LION HEART
MASTER DAVID
» MR. JESTER
» SECOND OF JUNE
ST AVERIL

My Jockeys
Alex Solis
Jerry Bailey


Trainers
Bobby Frankel
Nick Zito

[rkmsuf]

Sure, I can't disagree with that. Betting the field because you like one partiular horse not listed is foolish. Betting the field because you think that the listed horses are collectively vulnerable to a late-developing entry might not be.

Agreed. Overall I'm not much for the whole future wager other than a couple of flyers.

[rkmsuf]

Here are your FOY entries.


Gulfstream Park - February 14th, 2004 - Race 11
Fountain of Youth S. - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 5:44 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred race
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $250,000
Distance:One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Sir Oscar (FL) 3 Colt 122 Julio A. Garcia
2 Frisky Spider (MD) 3 Colt 116 Edwin L. King, Jr.
3 El Prado Rob (KY) 3 Colt 120 Edgar S. Prado
4 Broadway View (KY) 3 Colt 116 Rene R. Douglas
5 Hopefortheroses (FL) 3 Colt 116 Manuel Aguilar
6 Silver Wagon (FL) 3 Colt 120 Jose A. Santos
7 Second of June (FL) 3 Colt 120 Cornelio H. Velasquez
8 Read the Footnotes (NY) 3 Colt 122 Jerry D. Bailey


They better be careful with Frisky Spider inside. It's possible Bailey gets cute and lets him take command too easily.

This should be an interesting the way the pace plays out...I'm hoping Cornholio finds the garden spot for Second of June...

[QuikSand]

I'm glad to see Edgar Prado on one of the El Prado horses.

[rkmsuf]

I'm glad to see Edgar Prado on one of the El Prado horses.

He's in pretty deep here as he went at it with Second of June early in the Holy Bull and ended up 14 lengths beaten. Does have an explosive pattern and a good work though so I wouldn't be shocked at a major improvement. Even so he might still fall short if the top choices have repeat efforts...

[Chubby]

The Hutcheson on 2/14 is also a race in this contest...


10th (5:12)
Hutcheson S. (G2)
7 Furlongs Dirt Open 3 Year Olds
Stakes - Purse:$150,000
Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Silver Rapt Cruz M R 116 0 L
2 Limehouse Velazquez J R 122 0 L
3 Weigelia Penalba C 116 0 L
4 Saratoga County Coa E M 116 0 L
5 Harbour Gate Velasquez C 116 0 L
6 Deputy Storm Bailey J D 118 0 Blk-Off L
7 Wynn Dot Comma Bravo J 122 0 L
8 Blushing Indian Santos J A 116 0 L
9 Ghost Mountain Prado E S 118 0 L
10 Bourbon N Blues Garcia J A 116 0 L
11 Bachelor Blues Day P 122 0 L

[Chubby]

is FG = Fair Grounds? Is that where the Risen Star race is held on the 15th?

[rkmsuf]

I considered Wynn Dot Comma but he wasn't on the list...he's the likely winner and the only reason would be to steal these points and the others to this point offer little value going forward...

Quick could hit a daily double in this race though with both Bailey and Prado...I only have Bailey so unfortunatley I'll be putting the hex on Prado by bathing in vinegar and adorning myself with garlic necklaces...

[rkmsuf]

is FG = Fair Grounds? Is that where the Risen Star race is held on the 15th?

You are correct sir...

[Chubby]

You are correct sir...

ok, that's what I thought. drf doesn't have the info up for that race yet then...

[Chubby]

Rosters lock tonight for the 3 races this weekend, don't forget to make any adjustments to your starting 5 before then.

[rkmsuf]

$30K plunge into Derby Pool 1
By MARTY McGEE
The opening odds in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager took on a decidedly lopsided tilt when $30,000 was bet on the mutuel field just minutes after wagering opened Thursday.
According to Churchill Downs officials, one or more people betting through a hub in Maine accounted for "most of" the big wager shortly after windows opened at noon Eastern on Thursday. Maine serves as the hub for numerous offshore and Internet wagering sites.

As of 5 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, the field was the 1-10 favorite, followed by Lion Heart (35-1), Master David (40-1), Eurosilver (45-1), and Tapit (50-1). The handle at that point was more than $78,000.

As of 5 p.m. Thursday, handle in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Oaks futures had barely surpassed $3,300. Halfbridled was the 5-2 favorite over the field (7-2).

Betting on Pool 1 for both the Derby and Oaks continues through Sunday at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

[FishFan]

50-1 on Tapit may not be a bad wager. I'll have to keep my eye on the tote.

[rkmsuf]

50-1 on Tapit may not be a bad wager. I'll have to keep my eye on the tote.

If I see it go to 20-1 on the next flash I'll know what happened...

[FishFan]

*get out wallet*

[QuikSand]

Please don't be fooled by these bogus odds. You're not going to get 50-1 on TAPIT. Some clown dropped $30K into the field right off the bat, and that's still more than half the money in the total pool. All the prices are ridiculously distorted by that.

TAPIT will be right back down to 12-1 or so when it's all over, and (of course) that price is what counts -- not where it stands when you make your bet.

Recall, the overwhelming share of the money in the pool will come on late Saturday and on Sunday - after the FoY results (and perhaps the Risen Star's) are known. You'll see the winner and other good showers in the FoY have a plunge in their prices, too.

[rkmsuf]

Please don't be fooled by these bogus odds. You're not going to get 50-1 on Tapit. Some clocm dropped $30K into the field right off the bat, and that's still more than half the money in the total pool. All the prices are ridiculously distorted by that.

TAPIT will be right back down to 12-1 or so when it's all over, and (of course) that price is what counts -- not where it stands when you make your bet.

Recall, the overwhelming share of the money in the pool will come on late Saturday and on Sunday - after the FoY results (and perhaps the Risen Star's) are known. You'll see the winner and other good showers in the FoY have a plunge in their prices, too.

That's why Fishfan's 20 dollars would have knocked Tapit all the way down to 20-1...

[FishFan]

That's why I said I would watch the tote. If he's around 50-1 near the close of the pool, I would take a shot at him.

[QuikSand]

That's why I said I would watch the tote. If he's around 50-1 near the close of the pool, I would take a shot at him.

I'll give you 50-1 odds on him staying at 50-1.

[Raven Hawk]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>Risen star field:


9th (4:09)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent>Risen Star S. (G3) </TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>1 1/16 Miles Dirt Open 3 Year Olds </TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=left>Stakes - Purse:$150,000</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Post #</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Horse</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Jockey</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Weight</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Claim Price</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Equip.</TD><TD class=white-bold vAlign=center bgColor=#666666>Med.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>1</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Gradepoint</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Albarado R J</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>114</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>2</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Mr. Jester</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Chapa R</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>122</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>3</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Assault Commander</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Smith V L</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>117</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>4</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Nightlifeatbigblue</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Martin E M Jr</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>114</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>5</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Oneverycoolcat</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Lanerie C J</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>114</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>6</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Polish Rifle</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Sellers S J</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>122</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smContent align=middle bgColor=#cccccc>7</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Shiloh Bound</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>Riquelme J</TD><TD class=smContent align=left>122</TD><TD class=smContent align=right>0</TD><TD class=smContent align=left></TD><TD class=smContent align=left>L</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[rkmsuf]

Mr. Jester looks really good here. I just looked at the past performances and it's an ideal spot...

How many times have I said that before...

[Raven Hawk]

I was hoping that Shiloh Bound would have gotten a better slot than 7, but I can't disagree with your Mr.Jester analysis.

[rkmsuf]

yeah Nitelifeatbigblue on the inside is not going to help Shiloh's chances...

Keep an eye on Frisky Spider at Gulf for a stretch out front running score in the FOY...not saying it will happen but I think that horse gets the early lead because Bailey will be hesitant to engage him early with Read the Footnotes...

[QuikSand]

Do not overlook GRADEPOINT, who has been training very well and is getting a very generous eight pounds from the highweights. He should love the long home stretch at the Fair Grounds, too - he's definitely carrying the AP Indy bloodline.

[Raven Hawk]

Hahah,

You read my mind. I was looking at that and thinking that Frisky Spider could be player this weekend. He has an excellent position, plus doesn't he have a 6 lb allowance to Read the Footnotes and Second of June?

[rkmsuf]

Do not overlook GRADEPOINT, who has been training very well and is getting a very generous eight pounds from the highweights. He should love the long home stretch at the Fair Grounds, too - he's definitely carrying the AP Indy bloodline.

He's in the mix but I'm not a big fan of that style. I'm guessing Mr. Jester gets the jump on him...

[Raven Hawk]

My mistake. Frisky Spider gets 6 lbs from Sir Oscar and Read the Footnotes and only 4 lbs from Silver Wagon and Second of June.

[rkmsuf]

Hahah,

You read my mind. I was looking at that and thinking that Frisky Spider could be player this weekend. He has an excellent position, plus doesn't he have a 6 lb allowance to Read the Footnotes and Second of June?

I guess but one thing I am not is a weight guy. I find no meaningful correlation in weight differences of 6 lbs on a 1,000 lb animal.

This traces back to my roots as a speed figure guy though and I recognize methods differ. I do find humor though in the continued static from trainers of top horses who bitch and moan about being assigned 5 lbs more than they think they should. History suggests only imposts of near 130 seem to matter but as the bloodlines deteriorate in North America maybe that has to be rethought.

[QuikSand]

I generally don't put all that much stock into weights, either... but like most horseplayers (horse-talkers) I'll throw out any bit of insignifica that supports my current theory. Right now, I'm on GRADEPOINT so I'm all about that eight pounds. Had I decided to support Mr Jester, I'd probably have written your last post. Such is racing.

[rkmsuf]

I've maintained that I'm one of the greatest handicappers ever 30 seconds after the wire...

[Raven Hawk]

Well, it can't hurt the horse to be 8 lbs lighter, right? :)

[Raven Hawk]

I've maintained that I'm one of the greatest handicappers ever 30 seconds after the wire...
Well, I can't pick 1 horse in ANY race. My indecision leads to a lot of trifecta boxes. :)

[FishFan]

I'll give you 50-1 odds on him staying at 50-1.

No bet.

[FishFan]

I like READ THE FOOTNOTES, SHILOH BOUND, and LIMEHOUSE (or, the entry) this weekend.

[Chubby]

WOOHOO! I only had 1 horse going in the contest races and he won!


11th Race Off: 5:44

1 1/16 Miles. 3 Year Olds Stakes Purse:
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
8 Read the Footnotes Bailey J D 122 6.20 3.20 2.20
7 Second of June Velasquez C 120 2.60 2.20
6 Silver Wagon Santos J A 120 2.60
Finish Time: 1:42.71

Also ran: and El Prado Rob
Winning Trainer: Violette Richard A Jr - Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc.
$1 Exacta (8-7) Paid $6.80
$1 Trifecta (8-7-6) Paid $17.10
$1 Superfecta (8-7-6-3) Paid $79.10
$1 Pick 3 (2-2-8) 3 Correct Paid $78.60 Pick 3 Pool

[QuikSand]

Really nice showing from READ THE FOOTNOTES. There was a good deal of early speed in the race (or rather, several horses were forwardly placed - they ran the half in only 47.70) and having come from the far outside post, Baliey had to settle for a fairly wide 3rd lane trip in the first turn. He then settled in right off the hip of SECOND OF JUNE, who was running well in second place on the backstretch. Into the stretch, they had lost the early front-runner, and those two were well ahead of the field - it was clearly a good two-horse race. In the final paces, it was clear that RTF was gradually gaining, but that he might not catch the leader to win. I'm guessing the final margin was by a "head" but it was a solid stretch drive.

I think it's tough to come from that race with a conclusion other than READ THE FOOTNOTES > SECOND OF JUNE. The latter had an ideal setup, garden trip, and still got outrun down the stretch. I don't know if RTF has enough in him to get 1 1/14 miles, but he was the best of that pretty solid field yesterday.

[QuikSand]

At the Borgata, I had planned ot play the exacta with READ THE FOOTNOTES over SECOND OF JUNE, as I was pretty convinced the other major interests were a full step behind them (particularly SIR OSCAR, who had never faced tough competition). But I was shocked at the low payouts for the chalk exacta... the winning combo ended up paying only $6.80... hell, my win ticket paid $6.20. So it goes.

[Chubby]

At the Borgata, I had planned ot play the exacta with READ THE FOOTNOTES over SECOND OF JUNE, as I was pretty convinced the other major interests were a full step behind them (particularly SIR OSCAR, who had never faced tough competition). But I was shocked at the low payouts for the chalk exacta... the winning combo ended up paying only $6.80... hell, my win ticket paid $6.20. So it goes.


Yes I noticed that too when I posted the results, must have had a lot of money on RTF to be involved in the top 2 but not a lot to win.

[Raven Hawk]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=heading1>Doh!


Second of June fractures cannon bone
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=content height=337><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=200 align=right border=0 vspace="4" hspace="4"><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR align=left><TD height=50>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>By JAY PRIVMAN
HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. - Second of June, who finished second to Read the Foototes in Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, came out of the race with a condylar fracture of a cannon bone and was scheduled to have surgery at noon on Sunday, trainer Bill Cesare said Sunday morning.

The surgery was going to be performed by Dr. Stephen Selway at a clinic at Gulfstream Park.

"The fracture's not displaced, and it's not real wide, but it's there," Cesare said. "It shouldn't effect him, other than time." Cesare said Second of June would likely need two screws inserted in the fracture to promote healing. He estimated the colt would be sidelined until the end of the year.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[FishFan]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=heading1>Doh!


Second of June fractures cannon bone
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=content height=337><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=200 align=right border=0 vspace="4" hspace="4"><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR align=left><TD height=50>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>By JAY PRIVMAN
HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. - Second of June, who finished second to Read the Foototes in Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, came out of the race with a condylar fracture of a cannon bone and was scheduled to have surgery at noon on Sunday, trainer Bill Cesare said Sunday morning.

The surgery was going to be performed by Dr. Stephen Selway at a clinic at Gulfstream Park.

"The fracture's not displaced, and it's not real wide, but it's there," Cesare said. "It shouldn't effect him, other than time." Cesare said Second of June would likely need two screws inserted in the fracture to promote healing. He estimated the colt would be sidelined until the end of the year.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Yeah, I saw that earlier today. Nice to have my stable down to nine horses after the first weekend, but I'm sure plenty of other stables are in the same predicament. At least he got us some points before coming up lame.

[Chubby]

Yeah, I saw that earlier today. Nice to have my stable down to nine horses after the first weekend, but I'm sure plenty of other stables are in the same predicament. At least he got us some points before coming up lame.

Course not as many pts as RTF and Bailey got me :)

[QuikSand]

Nice effort by GRADEPOINT to win the Risen Star...


9th Race, Next Post 5:05 Off: 4:16

1 1/16 Miles. 3 Year Olds Stakes Purse: $150,000
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
1 Gradepoint Albarado R J 116 5.80 2.60 2.10
2 Mr. Jester Chapa R 122 2.40 2.10
4 Nightlifeatbigblue Martin E M Jr 118 2.10
Times in 5ths: :242 :481 1:132 1:384 1:451
Times in 100ths: :24.45 :48.37 1:13.45 1:38.92 1:45.36

Scratched: Shiloh Bound
Also ran: Polish Rifle, Oneverycoolcat and Assault Commander
Winning Trainer: Howard Neil J - Owner: Mount Brilliant Stable, LLC and Farish, William
$2 Exacta (1-2) Paid $12.80
$2 Quinella (1-2) Paid $4.80
$2 Trifecta (1-2-4) Paid $44.20
$2 Superfecta (1-2-4-6) Paid $72.80
$2 Pick 3 (7-1-1) 3 Correct Paid $249.80 Pick 3 Pool $10,825


Pretty good weekend for the QuikSand Ranch, aside from the injury to SECOND OF JUNE.

[rkmsuf]

Well that was fun...wake me up next year...

[QuikSand]

I'm a shade disappointed that I am only in about the 88th percentile so far, with 36 points. I had the first and second finishers in the FOY, plus the winner of the Risen Star (plus Bailey aboard RTF). I expected that I'd be in pretty good stead with that -- but I'm now guessing that I'm behind people who really loaded up for the opening weekend. Exclusing LIMEHOUSE and Pletcher left me without some achievable points... but I have to think I'm stronger out West than most of these people ahead of me who might have hit the East Coast contingent pretty hard.

[Raven Hawk]

I agree. I think that there are a lot of people that hit the opening weekend pretty hard. You can stick a fork in Ravenhawk Ranch, though. It sounds like Shiloh Bound scratched Risen Star due to an injury. Along with the Second of June injury, I now have 8 horses.

However, Gradepoint made me some decent cash this weekend. I was split between betting on Mr Jester or Gradepoint. Gradepoint's jockey, Alvarado, was having a stellar day, so that swayed me. :)

[FishFan]

Course not as many pts as RTF and Bailey got me :)

Yeah, I got those, too.

[FishFan]

I'm a shade disappointed that I am only in about the 88th percentile so far, with 36 points. I had the first and second finishers in the FOY, plus the winner of the Risen Star (plus Bailey aboard RTF). I expected that I'd be in pretty good stead with that -- but I'm now guessing that I'm behind people who really loaded up for the opening weekend. Exclusing LIMEHOUSE and Pletcher left me without some achievable points... but I have to think I'm stronger out West than most of these people ahead of me who might have hit the East Coast contingent pretty hard.


I agree. I wanted to add a Pletcher horse and Pletcher himself, but wanted Mandella to represent me out west and I could not leave off Zito. And, I did not think Pletcher had a horse that was a sure shot for the Derby.

With 25 points, I need to make a splash the first weekend in March.

[rkmsuf]

113 Beyer for Read the Footnotes in the Fountain of Youth. Very impressive and if he continues that level of performance is almost unbeatable...

Very possible it's a too early peak though...

[QuikSand]

The whole thing with RTF is distance. Daddy had brilliance to spare, but couldn't get a classic distance if he got to ride in a wagon. We'll have to see about the rest of the bloodline. If he can take that brilliance out to a real distance, he might be the most promising 3yo colt with this running style to come through the Florida circuit since Neil Howard had LIL'S LAD (to drop a name) a few years ago (now that was a brilliant colt).

[rkmsuf]

I was a Lil's Lad fan but wasn't he more one-dimentional? RTF seems like he is adaptable to a led, stalk second flight scenario...

[QuikSand]

I don't think Lil's Lad was exactly a need-the-lead type... I think he was just so full of brilliance that his natural effort put him ahead of the field. (I see a difference there) I think that had he developed fully, he might well have ended up with a running style a lot like that of Cigar or maybe Holy Bull -- tending to be on or near the lead, but able to carry it out to nearly any distance. Not quite the same as a pure front-runner.

Alas, we'll never really know. Shame.

[rkmsuf]

Coronado's Quest was a good one and Lil wired him in the FOY...would have been nice to see that battle play out...

I was pulling for Favorite Trick to be able to go a distance that year...

[QuikSand]

I was pulling for Favorite Trick to be able to go a distance that year...

...but you couldn't have been sold after the finish in the Arkansas Derby. Victory Gallop, as I recall, looked like the better horse in that race, with someone else in the mix at the wire (some name like Hot Salsa or Hot Pepper or something with a similar association).

Hell, when the Derby ended up rolling around that year (I had thrown out Real Quiet on account of his dosage, ignoring all the signs in the Santa Anita Derby) decided to back Cape Town, mostly because he was the only horse I saw all year who had managed to pass Lil's Lad.

[rkmsuf]

...but you couldn't have been sold after the finish in the Arkansas Derby. Victory Gallop, as I recall, looked like the better horse in that race, with someone else in the mix at the wire (some name like Hot Salsa or Hot Pepper or something with a similar association).

Hell, when the Derby ended up rolling around that year (I had thrown out Real Quiet on account of his dosage, ignoring all the signs in the Santa Anita Derby) decided to back Cape Town, mostly because he was the only horse I saw all year who had managed to pass Lil's Lad.

No I wasn't at all. I wasn't convinced after the 2 yr old campaign. I was hoping against hope...

That was a terrible Triple Crown year. I hated Real Quiet and was going to burn down Belmont Park if he won the Triple Crown...

[QuikSand]

That was a terrible Triple Crown year. I hated Real Quiet and was going to burn down Belmont Park if he won the Triple Crown...

In retrospect, I guess I'm glad that he didn't win (as everyone in my seciton thought he had). Dying in a mighty blaze might have put a bit of a crimp into my day's plans there.

[rkmsuf]

In retrospect, I guess I'm glad that he didn't win (as everyone in my seciton thought he had). Dying in a mighty blaze might have put a bit of a crimp into my day's plans there.

Looking back I may have overreacted a bit to the implications of the race.

I was still smarting from my last trip to the Belmont when I stood up as they hit the far turn and exclaimed for all to hear "Go For Gin can't lose!!!"

Uh...yeah...

[QuikSand]

-"Go For Gin can't lose!!!"

:: politely stares down, avoids eye contact ::

[FishFan]

That was a classic exchange between you guys. Well done.

[FishFan]

Anybody have a list of probables for the San Felipe and the Tampa Bay Derby on Sunday? I need to have a big weekend with THE CLIFF'S EDGE, TAPIT, and READ THE FOOTNOTES going in the Florida Derby and EUROSILVER in the Swale. I am sure I will have a couple other horses going in Sunday's races.

Also, when I make my horses active on Saturday are those the same runners who will be active on Sunday? Can I change them for Sunday's races if I have more than five going all weekend?

Just wondering...

[QuikSand]

You may not change active horses on a race day - so you will be stuck with the same five for the whole weekend.

Still searching for entries for you...

[QuikSand]

from ESPN:




Wednesday, March 10


Eight for Tampa Bay Derby

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Mike Welsch
Daily Racing Form


Kentucky Derby hopefuls Limehouse and Swingforthe-fences will head a field of eight 3-year-olds expected to start in Sunday's $250,000 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Fla.

Limehouse enters the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby off a convincing 2 1/4-length victory in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 14. The outing was the first for Limehouse since his third-place finish to Eurosilver in the Lane's End Breeders' Futurity on Oct. 4. Advertisement Swingforthefences has the same connections as Read the Footnotes, who will be favored in the $1 million Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream. Swingforthefences, trained by Rick Violette, comes off his best effort yet, a 5 1/4-length entry-level allowance victory at Gulfstream on Feb. 14.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has lined up Pat Day to ride Limehouse while Edgar Prado will be aboard Swingforthefences for the first time. Among the others considering the Tampa Bay Derby are Kaufy Mate and Zakocity, first and third in Tampa's Sam Davis Handicap on Feb. 21; Very Formal M.D.; Capejinsky; Misguided Left; and Tap Dancer.

[FishFan]

Thanks, QS. I thought that was the case with setting your active horses, but wanted to verify.

I've been looking all over DRF for an article listing the expected entries for Sunday's races, but could not find anything anywhere. It looks like I won't have anyone running in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I imagine Zito will have one of his horses going in the San Felipe.

I need about 50 points this weekend...

[QuikSand]

I'm pretty sure ST AVERIL is running in the San Felipe... but I don't know anything about the rest of the field. I think Zito has BIRDSTONE waiting until the next race at Turfway (I can't recall which race is coming up there).

[FishFan]

Yeah, I think BIRDSTONE is running somewhere on 3/20 and I had read something about ST AVERIL and ACTION THIS DAY (who I kept off my stable) in the San Felipe. I should have exactly five horses running this weekend:

ST AVERIL
TAPIT
READ THE FOOTNOTES
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
EUROSILVER

I'm hoping for a big score, led by READ THE FOOTNOTES, in the Florida Derby.

[rkmsuf]

Yeah, I think BIRDSTONE is running somewhere on 3/20 and I had read something about ST AVERIL and ACTION THIS DAY (who I kept off my stable) in the San Felipe. I should have exactly five horses running this weekend:

ST AVERIL
TAPIT
READ THE FOOTNOTES
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
EUROSILVER

I'm hoping for a big score, led by READ THE FOOTNOTES, in the Florida Derby.

You and about 90% of the other participants. You need St.Averil and Tapit to come up big...

[rkmsuf]

dola, I think it's kind of funny how Zito is scared of Footnotes and elects to run Eurosilver in the Swale...

[FishFan]

You're right, everyone will have READ THE FOOTNOTES and Bailey. I thought Zito was doing a great job of keeping his runners from facing each other and had said that the plan was to always run EUROSILVER in the Swale. Not sure if he's just bullshittin or not, though.

[rkmsuf]

You're right, everyone will have READ THE FOOTNOTES and Bailey. I thought Zito was doing a great job of keeping his runners from facing each other and had said that the plan was to always run EUROSILVER in the Swale. Not sure if he's just bullshittin or not, though.

Total bullshittin. Eurosilver has been his #1 contender with the Cliff's Edge clearly inferior. Zito will give you all kinds of mularky about only wanting to give Eurosilver one two turn prep which will be the Blue Grass but that's crap.

He saw Footnotes race and knows he needs to duck him until the Derby. Throw Cliff's Edge out there and see what happens but a repeat of the Sammy Davis and he's beaten 20 lengths...

Value Plus could upset the apple cart in the Florida Derby. Clear lone speed. We'll see if he wants a mile and an eighth...

[QuikSand]

Value Plus could upset the apple cart in the Florida Derby. Clear lone speed. We'll see if he wants a mile and an eighth...

I agree it's possible, but hope to see FRSKY SPIDER keep it honest up front, and I do't expect RTF to be too far behind, from the nearly-ideal 3 spot.

[rkmsuf]

I think if the 8 Value Plus can break cleanly(not a given) then he'll smoke his outside rival into the first turn. That really has to be Pletcher's plan.

Regardless RTF will be right in it as he's fast enough to stay within striking distance. Those are the only two logical winners I think...say Tapit all you want but it would be an upset to improve 15 or so lengths...

[FishFan]

Okay, I just saw the entries for the San Felipe and am kicking myself right now. I noticed a horse entered named CHEIRON whose name rang a bell. After looking back through my notes from Del Mar's meet last fall (I am a big fan of playing that meet), I noticed I had noticed CHEIRON in a maiden special wt. He did not win, but my notes read "Impressive looking colt. Wants to run longer. Triple Crown worthy?" I must have promptly filed this away and forgot about the horse until I saw him break his maiden awhile back. After struggling to break his maiden (took a few tries), I thought he would be a nice allowance horse or maybe break into some minor stakes, if he's lucky. Looking at his past performances, he may be a sleeper in the San Felipe this weekend.

[rkmsuf]

Man that Del Mar meet is tough. Congrats if you can make money there...

[FishFan]

If TAPIT is fit and there is a speed duel between FRISKY SPIDER and RTF, then I think TAPIT has a legitimate shot coming from the back. I've always considered this weekend the weekend that weeds out Derby contenders and pretenders. Hopefully, Pletcher's barn fails miserably and Zito flourishes. After this, there are only a handful of big races left (the Wood, Bluegrass, and Illinois to name a few).

[FishFan]

Man that Del Mar meet is tough. Congrats if you can make money there...

I do alright if I can see the first few races and know how the track is playing. Last year, one day it would favor early speed and the next it would favor the closers w/o any real change in weather. Not sure what they do out there. I always seem to make good prices out there. I'm actually going to be in San Diego this summer and will see Del Mar in person for the first time, albeit without live racing.

[FishFan]

I hate this game.

[rkmsuf]

Value Plus just can't get out of the gate...

[QuikSand]

My stable took a beating this weekend... as did most, I suspect, who went with the strong-looking players for the early races. But with SILVER WAGON and SECOND OF JUNE already on the sideline, READ THE FOOTNOTES now a distance question, and TAPIT and ACTION THIS DAY looking pretty shaky - my options for a breakthrough are looking very shaky.

[rkmsuf]

Maybe the loose horse impacted Action This Day...he's said to have received a gash on his leg by Laditute...

Tapit looked dreadful and I'll reserve judgement on RTF...while I don't usually buy trainer-speak I do concur with their analysis of the FOY knocking him out a bit. If they can crank him back up he'll be a serious threat in May...

[QuikSand]

I don't think Dickinson would have run TAPIT werehe not under pressure to get onto the Derby trail. One thing Dickinson rarely does is send out a horse who isn't ready - and by all appearances, the best you could say about TAPIT was "he needed that race."

[rkmsuf]

I don't think Dickinson would have run TAPIT werehe not under pressure to get onto the Derby trail. One thing Dickinson rarely does is send out a horse who isn't ready - and by all appearances, the best you could say about TAPIT was "he needed that race."

He said as much in the interview I saw where he talked about the break in his races and then him missing something like 19 days of training. He admitted to not expecting to win the Florida Derby but wanted his charge running at the end.

I wouldn't characterize Tapit's finish as strong so it will be interesting if they proceed...

[FishFan]

Anyone paying attention to this weekend's races?

I have six horses running, but would need a miracle to get back in the hunt...

[QuikSand]

I'm pretty much out of the hunt, too -- I'm still in the top 25% overall, but am nowhere near the front group.

I'll get a free night of drinks from my two friends, though, as I have them both easily beaten.

[Raven Hawk]

My chances went down the drain when I came to the conclusion that Wimbledon was a stronger horse than Imperialism and that Value Plus is a contender.

I suck.

However, there are some really good races this weekend that I would like to watch. :)

[FishFan]

I leapfrogged ~ 3000 contestants this weekend when my runners finished 1-2 in both the Wood and the Bluegrass. I had $25 win bets on TAPIT and THE CLIFF'S EDGE and hit a nice exacta in the Bluegrass, as well. Overall, a nice weekend...