Werewolf XII: Mafia Returneth

[MrBug708]

Anything is possible, according to NC

[SackAttack]

Retired Officer - You are a retired police officer, living your life out in this small village. Thanks to your police training, you are skilled in the ways of gunslinging. You may choose to protect one person each night from being killed by the Mafia. You may choose yourself, but cannot choose the same person in consecutive nights.

Just reading this from the first post. If the Retired Officer protects somebody, would we know?

[Poli]

Or else the Mafia figured "Hell, they aren't onto us yet anyway, why risk exposing ourselves? Let 'em do it themselves."

(Can they do that?)I would guess they could. I wouldn't imagine Neon stopping them. Wouldn't make much sense, IMO. I think they found the son, bribed someone, heck maybe they kidnapped someone.

All I know is we're sucking.

[Poli]

Just reading this from the first post. If the Retired Officer protects somebody, would we know?Ooh! I hadn't thought of that! Would we know?

[SackAttack]

Ooh! I hadn't thought of that! Would we know?

That's the thing. I figure if protecting = killing assailant, then yes, we would.

Otherwise...unless either the protected or protectee knows (and outs the knowledge), then we'd be blissfully unaware.

Now, the problem is that we can't be sure the guardee would be telling the truth if he says "Yes, I was protected from death last night," because what's going to prove it if we wouldn't otherwise know? He could be telling the truth, or he could be a Mafioso.

If he's telling the truth, where's his percentage in attracting the spotlight to himself? If he's a Mafioso, that goes double.

[MrBug708]

It would be a huge coincidence though, if the mafia went to kill the person that the police went to protect.

Seems like they probably went to bribe or found the mafia's son...

[illinifan999]

I don't think we can ask the police guy to come out since he'd probably be a target for the mafia so I don't think we'll know if it was that. Leaning towards bribery/lost son myself.

[SackAttack]

It would be a huge coincidence though, if the mafia went to kill the person that the police went to protect.

Seems like they probably went to bribe or found the mafia's son...

About one chance in 200, by my calculations, that the officer and mafioso chose the same person. Again, always assuming we don't know the event occurred.

I'd imagine the Mafia role allows them to check one person per night for ties to the Don, but what I wonder is, with multiple Mafia members, can one search for the Don's son, while another kills a random villager? Or do they have to act in concert, whatever their night action?

[SackAttack]

I don't think we can ask the police guy to come out since he'd probably be a target for the mafia so I don't think we'll know if it was that. Leaning towards bribery/lost son myself.

Agreed. I would prefer he stay incognito, as he'd be too valuable to lose the way things are going right now.

[Blade6119]

About one chance in 200, by my calculations, that the officer and mafioso chose the same person. Again, always assuming we don't know the event occurred.

I'd imagine the Mafia role allows them to check one person per night for ties to the Don, but what I wonder is, with multiple Mafia members, can one search for the Don's son, while another kills a random villager? Or do they have to act in concert, whatever their night action?

Id assume they can do both...one guy scanning, the whole group killing...but remember there are sure to be at least a few hidden roles(witness for one)...NEON'S last game was riddled with them, every person having a role...id imagine were missing, or not sharing, quite a few...for good or bad...

[SackAttack]

Id assume they can do both...one guy scanning, the whole group killing...but remember there are sure to be at least a few hidden roles(witness for one)...NEON'S last game was riddled with them, every person having a role...id imagine were missing, or not sharing, quite a few...for good or bad...

I'm certain there are hidden roles, but I'm just as certain that a few of us are plain vanilla.

[korme]

Vote Shorty
Vote didn't count, but that's cool. I have legit questionmarks on a certain player and you don't like it because I half-assedly called us idiots for voting someone off who didn't seem like anything more than a villager. Smooth, Schmidty.

[Aesyrqwe]

Gah I come home and find my first WW cut short on day two. I finally came up with a theory though, after getting a chance to really look through all the posts. I'll have to just keep up and see if any of it had some truth. Thanks for the invite to the game

Oh and sorry about the post from the dead, I rarely post on this board so you gotta give me slack on this one

-Aes

[illinifan999]

Save it and post it at the end of the game. It'll be cool to see what you came up with.

[MrBug708]

Sorry man, just had to pick someone....

[Aesyrqwe]

Save it and post it at the end of the game. It'll be cool to see what you came up with.
Yeah I had no intention of talking about the game like that after I was lynched

-Aes

[Fouts]

I'm not sure what to think about the no kill, but with 15 of us left we need to come up with some incriminating information. I know I don't look good with the kill of Aesyrqwe, but I was trying to stir up some chatter and we did get some talk going at the end of the day. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

*I won't be on until tomorrow afternoon as I have some appointments in the morning.

[kingfc22]

Go mafia!!!

[Bek]

We are really running on a bad streak here...we need to turn things around quickly...the no kill was very interesting...props to the officer if he really did protect someone

*might not be on tommorw as my new job training is taking up most of my time, ill see what I can do...unitl then...

[Schmidty]

Vote didn't count, but that's cool. I have legit questionmarks on a certain player and you don't like it because I half-assedly called us idiots for voting someone off who didn't seem like anything more than a villager. Smooth, Schmidty.

Are you sure that's why I voted for you Shorty? If so, you know more than I do.

[Blade6119]

This is from a PM i recieved from bek..time stamp was:

Private Messages in Folder: Inbox
Messages: 9 Today


08-15-2005 Mafia?!?!?!?!?
11:35 PM Bek


Us mafia are staying low well arent we...you villagers have no idea whats going on...and I'm loving it...just watch out for this next night...because we are coming

--Bek

[Blade6119]

anyone else have any reason to not lynch him, tell me...but i cant ignore that evidence...i know its early, and regardless of whether or not bek is one of my off-board friends, i just can't let him get away with this. Pending amazing evidence to change my mind:

Vote Bek

[SackAttack]

Why would he reveal himself like that, though? That's what doesn't make any sense to me.

Either Bek is a Mafioso, and was amazingly stupid to think he could send a PM like that and not have it posted, or you're a Mafioso betting that since we have no idea what's going on right now, that we'll flood to the first sign of a breakthrough.

I'm going to have to hold off for now and watch how the rest of the day unfolds.

[korme]

Are you sure that's why I voted for you Shorty? If so, you know more than I do.
You already criticized me in a prior post, it's not hard to go from Point A to Point B. That's real funny how you try to say as you little as you can to provoke me. Interesting.

[Blade6119]

Why would he reveal himself like that, though? That's what doesn't make any sense to me.

Either Bek is a Mafioso, and was amazingly stupid to think he could send a PM like that and not have it posted, or you're a Mafioso betting that since we have no idea what's going on right now, that we'll flood to the first sign of a breakthrough.

I'm going to have to hold off for now and watch how the rest of the day unfolds.

I think the thing you forget is bek is one of my best friends...we talk about the game when we hang out, and he has repeatedly told me he couldnt tell me his role...after i called him a mafia bastard when i got mad at him for voting me(a friendly insult, but still a jest) he sent that back...i fet it proper to share..do with it what you will, but i thought that any evidence i had should come forward for the benefit of the group...if i dit on it it only leads to more death, and coming out with it in three days would meet the same spectisim...i also dont think it makes the mafia want to kill me, since it doesnt allow me info on other members...its a mistake he made, and i hope you take it as such :(

[korme]

Wow, Blade. Pretty strong conviction on bek right there if you aren't hosing us. I'll be curious to see how other people feel about this, but it's about the only thing we might be going on right now, so yeah...

[SackAttack]

I think the thing you forget is bek is one of my best friends...we talk about the game when we hang out, and he has repeatedly told me he couldnt tell me his role...after i called him a mafia bastard when i got mad at him for voting me(a friendly insult, but still a jest) he sent that back...i fet it proper to share..do with it what you will, but i thought that any evidence i had should come forward for the benefit of the group...if i dit on it it only leads to more death, and coming out with it in three days would meet the same spectisim...i also dont think it makes the mafia want to kill me, since it doesnt allow me info on other members...its a mistake he made, and i hope you take it as such :(

Not criticizing you, don't misunderstand.

I'm just saying that if we take it at face value, as it appears intended, it can only go one of those two ways.

A third possibility is that he's trying to fuck with your mind, but again, he has to have realized the possibility of it getting posted, and I have to wonder why he would do that - and leave hard evidence - if he's an innocent villager just pulling your leg. It'd be much safer to say something like that man-to-man where it's just your word against his.

That last seems the least likely, so it still boils down to that either-he-is-or-you-are scenario. I hope somebody else has some information that can shed light one way or the other, because we can't afford another "oops."

[SackAttack]

dola,

I also didn't know previously that you and Bek were buds, but it still comes down to the same thing. Either he is, and screwed up, or you are, and overplayed your hand too soon, or he's trying to screw with you outside the game and picked a really dumb way to do it.

I'd almost prefer the first option. It would at least be a break in an otherwise stone-cold case.

[Bek]

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. I may be new to the forum, but im not stupid. Why in the world would i reveal me role. I think that the real threat here is blade...he saw my last comment about maybe not being able to get on and thought he would try to take out another villager tonight...well let me tell you something... he got caught red-handed. I was just heading off for the rest of the evening and decided to check it one more time... and to my surprise i see this stunt trying to be pulled...with this stunt I can only believe that blade is mafia so im going to make my vote now...

Vote Blade6119

[SackAttack]

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. I may be new to the forum, but im not stupid. Why in the world would i reveal me role. I think that the real threat here is blade...he saw my last comment about maybe not being able to get on and thought he would try to take out another villager tonight...well let me tell you something... he got caught red-handed. I was just heading off for the rest of the evening and decided to check it one more time... and to my surprise i see this stunt trying to be pulled...with this stunt I can only believe that blade is mafia so im going to make my vote now...

Vote Blade6119

Do you deny sending him that PM, then?

[Bek]

I dont deny sending it but he took it out of context...he was calling me a mafia bastard out of forum(like he said a friendly jest)...i just happend to return the favor and play along with him thinking I'm mafia and send that wonderfully crafted PM back to him...If I'm to be faulted for anything then its for returning the jest in forum...If you do kill me you will find out that I'm not mafia, and once again us villagers have made another "oops"

[Schmidty]

You already criticized me in a prior post, it's not hard to go from Point A to Point B. That's real funny how you try to say as you little as you can to provoke me. Interesting.

I jokingly called you a rookie. Didn't realize you were that sensitive or that you were taking the game so seriously. I'm actually not trying to provoke you at all. If you can't handle getting voted for in a game, maybe you shouldn't play. :)

[korme]

I jokingly called you a rookie. Didn't realize you were that sensitive or that you were taking the game so seriously. I'm actually not trying to provoke you at all. If you can't handle getting voted for in a game, maybe you shouldn't play. :) ^
|
Man with history of sensitivity issues. You can play it off, but you were trying to bait me, I will not play along, and suspicion for you mounts!

[Blade6119]

I dont deny sending it

enough said....you cant say that...simple as black and white

[jeff061]

Frikken wierd.

Why would Bek send that and why would Blade twist it when there is no need to get aggressive like that.

The whole situation makes no sense.

[digamma]

So, the summary for last night is we have three options (and two of them don't look so good):

1. Don's son was found. Add one more to the mafia total.
2. Some sort of secret bribe. Add one more to the mafia total.
3. The retired officer blocked the kill. Things remain the same. (A win for the villagers.)

Now, onto today, this Bek-Blade thing makes absolutely no sense.

Why would Bek send a truthful PM like that?
If Bek didn't send the PM, why would Blade make it up?
Is Bek screwing with Blade?
Where can I get a good cup of coffee?

[RealDeal]

:p

[pennywisesb]

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. I may be new to the forum, but im not stupid. Why in the world would i reveal me role. I think that the real threat here is blade...he saw my last comment about maybe not being able to get on and thought he would try to take out another villager tonight...well let me tell you something... he got caught red-handed. I was just heading off for the rest of the evening and decided to check it one more time... and to my surprise i see this stunt trying to be pulled...with this stunt I can only believe that blade is mafia so im going to make my vote now...

Vote Blade6119

I agree with Bek here. Seems alittle fishy that Blade would wait until Bek says he won't be back for some time to release this "evidence" to us. Plus, I'm still trying to figure out why Bek would reveal himself in this manner and not think it was going to get back to the forum. I think Blade is trying to pull something here. Any ideas?

[Bek]

Just ask, apparently im quite good at that ;)

This being to Jeff's first post of With a lack of a seer we need to spark confrontation, I think.

This is all he is doing to us villagers. Sending us down a road that is only going to get another one of us killed. We have to look who started this whole confrontation...which leads us the the doorstep of blade's house...lets not let a mafia member slip through our fingers when we have the chance to lynch one

[SackAttack]

I agree with Bek here. Seems alittle fishy that Blade would wait until Bek says he won't be back for some time to release this "evidence" to us. Plus, I'm still trying to figure out why Bek would reveal himself in this manner and not think it was going to get back to the forum. I think Blade is trying to pull something here. Any ideas?

Bek has already confirmed that he sent the PM.

I dont deny sending it but he took it out of context...he was calling me a mafia bastard out of forum(like he said a friendly jest)...i just happend to return the favor and play along with him thinking I'm mafia and send that wonderfully crafted PM back to him...If I'm to be faulted for anything then its for returning the jest in forum...If you do kill me you will find out that I'm not mafia, and once again us villagers have made another "oops"

But he maintains it was taken out of context, that he isn't really a Mafioso, but that a joke he was playing on Blade backfired. Why he would do so on the board instead of in person since the two are apparently off-board friends makes no sense. If you aren't, what can it profit you to make such a comment?

Never mind the possibility that Blade himself is a Mafioso, thus giving him a prime opportunity to offer you as the sacrificial lamb and make himself appear more trusted.

If Bek IS Mafioso, then his buddies have to be pretty pissed off with him right now.

[jeff061]

Well to be honest, you shouldn't be PMing someone you are currently engaged in the game with, unless your role dictates it.

Bolded for someone else ;).

In anycase I'm of the opinion they are both villagers, just doesn't make sense otherwise.

[digamma]

In anycase I'm of the opinion they are both villagers, just doesn't make sense otherwise.
This is the only conclusion I can come to as well.

[illinifan999]

I agree with digamma and jeff. Just seems way to weird to be true, but I guess ya never know...

[SackAttack]

I can't come to any conclusion where Bek is a Mafioso. It just doesn't make any sense for him to out himself this way.

The problem is, I can't come up with a profitable line of reasoning for why Blade would up and post the PM right away, rather than - if he truly believes Bek is guilty - try and build another argument and bring up the PM if he needs something to buttress it.

By posting the PM immediately, he achieves one of three results:

1) Immediate condemnation of Bek followed by his subsequent lynching. This is followed by either:
1a) Cheers as Bek turns out to be Mafia, or
1b) Blade's immediate lynching for what seems to be a frame-up of a villager. If Blade is Mafioso, after all, he would know who his cohorts are, and thus he would know if Bek is truly Mafia.
2) General apathy because of the oddness of the scenario (which seems to be unfolding so far)
3) Suspicion of Blade himself because of the immediacy of his vote.

I did some thinking about this during my statistics class.

If the Mafia did convert somebody last night, either by finding the Don's Son, or by bribing somebody, then they potentially number as high as 4 of the remaining 15 players. Their end-game is to reach a 1:1 ratio, meaning they only need to off seven of us, plus one additional for any of theirs that die.

Assuming that there are four Mafioso right now, and 11 villagers, consider this scenario: Blade is Mafioso, and seized on an innocent joke from his friend as an opportunity to lynch a villager. The Mafia get an opportunity to kill somebody tonight (unless the Retired Officer saves the day), and this time tomorrow morning, there are still 4 Mafia, but now only 9 villagers. Where things go at this point depend largely upon whether people give Blade a pass for his reading of the PM, or if they determine he is Mafioso and lynch him. And, most importantly, whether he actually IS Mafioso.

If both Bek and Blade are innocent, then two days hence we could conceivably be in a 7-4 situation, and in deep, deep doo-doo.

But I keep coming back to the fact that if Blade were innocent, why would he stick his neck out so far, so quickly, based on a PM from someone with whom he's friendly off-board - someone who might be expected to engage in some tomfoolery?

I can respect the "I wanted to get the information out there in case it was important" line, but why not play your cards a little closer to the vest in the first place and try to draw Bek out, rather than go all-in on your hole cards?

vote Blade6119, until we get some better information.

[jeff061]

Well, as far as I can tell I'll probably end up sticking with my vote from yesterday. I think yesterdays voting was even less helpful than day one. Hopefully it will benefit more towards the end of the game.

[Blade6119]

I can respect the "I wanted to get the information out there in case it was important" line, but why not play your cards a little closer to the vest in the first place and try to draw Bek out, rather than go all-in on your hole cards?

vote Blade6119, until we get some better information.

As i stated, sitting on this would only delay this same problem...if i brought it up on three days, you would just not believe me then and we would have already lost a few more villagers. Im in no way trying to be overtly aggressive, but after bek had given me countless hints and clues he was mafia during our off-board time, i waited for something concrete and this was it. I can guarantee you one thing, not about bek but about me...if you kill me it will help the mafia...the ratio will get tighter as i count as a villager(and dont yet know any of the mafia...i could soon though if i keep searching at night) and you will lose another tonight...do what you will, but after days of him saying he was mafia, he finally gave me some written evidence and i used it.

At the end of the day, bek is still my buddy, and who you kill wont affect that...i just wanted to help the team and teach him a lesson of what not to do when your mafia...if he isnt mafia, then hes been playing with me for quite some time...and did a damn good job. Oh well, either way ill see you all next game
:p

[jeff061]

As an observation, I think any seers we have left should not even hint at their role unless they are about to be lynched or it's late in the game.

[SackAttack]

Blade, if you are truly a villager, you might still be giving away too much.

[digamma]

I seem to be always a few minutes behind jeff with my comments, but I too am uncomfortable with a witness reveal this early and with no solid evidence against anyone.

[jeff061]

I'd also add, if there was a bribe(I'm assuming this is a convert?) the #1 target would be Sak :). Just because he was cleared yesterday and now he's playing up the real/blade situation.

You Mafia veterans know what all these roles and actions are and I'm left in the lurch :).

[SackAttack]

I'd also add, if there was a bribe(I'm assuming this is a convert?) the #1 target would be Sak :). Just because he was cleared yesterday and now he's playing up the real/blade situation.

You Mafia veterans know what all these roles and actions are and I'm left in the lurch :).

Not me! I wish I had been bribed, though. Then I could afford some lunch.

[illinifan999]

I'm leaning towards Blade just because of the randomness about that, but I'm gonna wait to see other people's opinions. The last thing we need tonight is a rushed vote leading to us losing another villager.

[Blade6119]

As an observation, I think any seers we have left should not even hint at their role unless they are about to be lynched or it's late in the game.

Blade, if you are truly a villager, you might still be giving away too much.

I seem to be always a few minutes behind jeff with my comments, but I too am uncomfortable with a witness reveal this early and with no solid evidence against anyone.

I bloody have to, since just like last game with real deal, the second i come into the limelight i get lynched...it happens every bloody game, i try to help the group and they lynch me for sticking my head out there..since i posted, 2 votes have gone through and both for me. Tell me why i shouldnt hint at my role or go into the spotlight to help the group again...its a game of survival, and as usual the good guy is going to die

[digamma]

Because the seer is the most valuable resource villagers have. It's a role you have to protect and reveal at the right time.

[Blade6119]

dola, *never go into the spotlight to helpthe group again*...mistype, sorry

[pennywisesb]

I bloody have to, since just like last game with real deal, the second i come into the limelight i get lynched...it happens every bloody game, i try to help the group and they lynch me for sticking my head out there..since i posted, 2 votes have gone through and both for me. Tell me why i shouldnt hint at my role or go into the spotlight to help the group again...its a game of survival, and as usual the good guy is going to die
Well, because now, unless the mafioso are complete idiots, you're their prime target! We've already lost a very important role right off the bat, and now we might lose another because of your little outburst. :mad:

[jeff061]

Seems to me you have more people declaring your innocence than the other way around. You don't have to until 8:00pm and you have 4+ votes and are in the lead.

I mean you think you will survive the night now?

[jeff061]

Blade, where exactly did you get the impression you were in any danger to be lynched tonight? Because you got 1 vote and three other guys saying you are a villager?

Tell me why i shouldnt hint at my role or go into the spotlight to help the group again...its a game of survival, and as usual the good guy is going to die

I don't quite understand how that helps you survive...

[Blade6119]

Because the seer is the most valuable resource villagers have. It's a role you have to protect and reveal at the right time.

Ya, cant do that when im dead though, so ill share this...(note, im not the newspaper reporter, i have a different role)

Night one - Shorty - hes clean, nothing on him

Last night - Sack Attack - hes clean too, which makes me think he wasnt bribed because if he was im sure neon would have hinted at it occuring or something

[Blade6119]

Blade, where exactly did you get the impression you were in any danger to be lynched tonight? Because you got 1 vote and three other guys saying you are a villager?



I don't quite understand how that helps you survive...

Last game, i accused real deal and got the vote count to be 4-1 in my favor with an hour to go(and one useless vote on ardent)...i leave for a half hour and came back to see all those votes switch sides because he said the same argument i did..."if im wrong, kill me"...i know all too well how quickly public opinion can change, especially if the most trusted source is the game is one of the two votes

[Blade6119]

Seems to me you have more people declaring your innocence than the other way around. You don't have to until 8:00pm and you have 4+ votes and are in the lead.

I mean you think you will survive the night now?

I sure hope so, either by the police protection, or the thinking that will happen and take someone else

[jeff061]

Ok, Let me break it all down. Before the hint you at worst have a 50% chance of being voted off, yes, higher than others. I think you would of survived though. Then you had the same chance as all of us to be killed at night.

Now you have a 100% chance of being killed tonight at the mafia's hands and we all lose a role we couldn't afford to lose.

And Edit:

I forgot about protection in this game :). Still doesn't change my opinion of this situation though.

[pennywisesb]

Ya, cant do that when im dead though, so ill share this...(note, im not the newspaper reporter, i have a different role)
NO MORE HINTS! At least if you don't hint at what role you are, the mafioso has to at least guess.

[pennywisesb]

I'm at least glad we got the info that shorty and sack are on our side from him before his dramatic death tonight...

[korme]

shit be crazy

[jeff061]

Yeah, bribery makes it so it doesn't mean to much though. Though I don't see Shorty as a likely target.

Would Neon hint at something if Sack was converted last night, is that something he can answer for us?

[korme]

I'm at least glad we got the info that shorty and sack are on our side from him before his dramatic death tonight...
Yeah, especially when he dies and if it does prove he is the seer, I guess that makes me and Sack safe from one night action. Narrows it down a bit, to say the least.

[SackAttack]

Yeah, especially when he dies and if it does prove he is the seer, I guess that makes me and Sack safe from one night action. Narrows it down a bit, to say the least.

unvote Blade6119.

Seems clear to me at this point that he isn't Mafia, but was rather just a little hasty with his various revelations.

I'm not sure what I think about Bek, though. I still don't see any percentage in his alleged behavior, but what else have we got to go on right now?

[Poli]

I just find it hard to believe he'd be foolish enough to reveal himself like that. Heh, who knows. Blade has to be cleared now, I would think. I'll have to make a decision on who I'm voting for soon, as it's softball night. Student game at 5:30, my game at 6:30, and another game for me at 8:30.

At least my night is mapped out. :)

[MrBug708]

I dont think Blade is mafia. He tends to give info way to easily about his role in order to protect himself....

Vote - Jeff

[MrBug708]

Yeah, especially when he dies and if it does prove he is the seer, I guess that makes me and Sack safe from one night action. Narrows it down a bit, to say the least.

I think Sack is safe, but Im not sold on Shorty at this point...

[dubb93]

I'm going to have to Vote Bek

He doesn't deny sending the PM, and has done nothing to help us so far. Seems to me he is playing the mafia role, but doesn't quite know how to play it so he's keeping to himself. I TRIED to voted him yesterday and after the evidence from Blade today I see no reason to switch.

[SackAttack]

Something that just occurred to me.

Ya, cant do that when im dead though, so ill share this...(note, im not the newspaper reporter, i have a different role)

Night one - Shorty - hes clean, nothing on him

Last night - Sack Attack - hes clean too, which makes me think he wasnt bribed because if he was im sure neon would have hinted at it occuring or something

My question is, given the above, and given

Im in no way trying to be overtly aggressive, but after bek had given me countless hints and clues he was mafia during our off-board time, i waited for something concrete and this was it.

that, if Bek had been hinting for some time that he might be a Mafioso, why didn't Blade use his ability to check Bek out? Wouldn't that have been more concrete than a PM? The PM came ~3-5 hours after the voting deadline, so either all the hinting took place in an incredibly compressed period, or else Bek was hinting to Blade well before then, at least early enough that Blade could have used his night action to see if Bek was on the level or not.

Certainly, if we accept that Blade is what he says he is and can do what he says he can, an implication via the ability would be more damning than the PM?

Not leaning either way right now. I just wanted to toss that out there and see what you all make of it.

[jeff061]

Vote Fouts Same reasons I gave yesterday. Nothing pointing to anyone else, couple people cleared, but none I was strongly considering.

Yes, unlike someone else, I give reasons for why I vote ;).

[Blade6119]

that, if Bek had been hinting for some time that he might be a Mafioso, why didn't Blade use his ability to check Bek out? Wouldn't that have been more concrete than a PM? The PM came ~3-5 hours after the voting deadline, so either all the hinting took place in an incredibly compressed period, or else Bek was hinting to Blade well before then, at least early enough that Blade could have used his night action to see if Bek was on the level or not.

Why waste a scan? He had been saying things around mafiaish, and i was convinced i could get him to give it up on his own...he did, sent the pm, and i posted it...why waste a scan on him when i can get it out of him without it...now i know two good people and one bad...why scan to see if his lying to me for fun when i can scan the people i have no idea about...?? If bek is or isnt mafia, hes not the one whos going to win it...its the ones we have no suspicion of yet that will bite us in the ass...hence my scan ideas...

[digamma]

Fine, Blade.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt here. I don't think we're advancing the ball by continuing to spread votes over five or six candidates.

Vote Bek

[Poli]

I'll go with Bek as well.

Vote Bek

[SnDvls]

I can't believe Bek would do something like that if he was mafia, I think it might just be an innocent PM that is getting twisted. I guess we'll see. I'm going to stick with BearCat per my prior reason (attacking someone who I think is helping) and because he is very quiet today, not even on as a viewer.

vote BearCat

[Fouts]

Just got home and read all the new information. The best information we can receive is from our seers, so I have a hard time doubting blade. From experience as a seer, I know that you have to be pretty sure about someone to condemn them in the game. Otherwise, you are gonna pay the ultimate price.

I am going to take a shot and believe blade is a seer and giving us good information, but if you are wrong, I will assume you are part of the mafia.

I vote Bek

[korme]

Yeah, I can see how Bek could just be joking with Blade though, friends and all he's just messing around.

But we really have no other leads. Unless something more convincing comes up, I vote Bek

[pennywisesb]

I hate to do it, but I'm going to vote bek based simply on the fact that he is the only individual we have a lead on. I'm not sure why Blade did what he did, but I don't think we can look past the fact that Bek said what he did in that PM.

[illinifan999]

I'm gonna keep my vote the same from yesterday.

I vote dubb

He just seemed so ready to try to discredit Sack and point the finger at people trying to defend him.

[Blade6119]

From experience as a seer, I know that you have to be pretty sure about someone to condemn them in the game. Otherwise, you are gonna pay the ultimate price.

FYI, bek wasnt a seer view...he was just a friendly PM...Sack and shorty were my scans

[jeff061]

Well I see this situation clearing Bek more than painting him guilty, which is why I'd rather take a stab elsewhere even if it's the only "lead" we have.

[Fouts]

FYI, bek wasnt a seer view...he was just a friendly PM...Sack and shorty were my scans

Hmmm, ok. Still, I gather you feel pretty strongly that he is mafia. At least thats what it sounds like.

Well I see this situation clearing Bek more than accusing him, which is why I'd rather take a stab elsewhere even if it's the only "lead" we have.

I'd really like to know how this clears him? I must be missing something.

[korme]

Well I see this situation clearing Bek more than painting him guilty, which is why I'd rather take a stab elsewhere even if it's the only "lead" we have.
Any ideas?

[jeff061]

Because he admitted to it right away, said it was a joke in a string of out of thread comments and mostly because I just don't see any situation where the mafia would send PM's like that.

I guess I could be over estimating Bek, but I don't think so.

[jeff061]

Though if you guys are going to focus on these comments and nail me if he is mafia I might as well bandwagon :D.

[Fouts]

Because he admitted to it right away, said it was a joke in a string of out of thread comments and mostly because I just don't see any situation where the mafia would send PM's like that.

I guess I could be over estimating Bek, but I don't think so.

That is a good point, but what other avenue does the accused have? There is a chance that he isn't mafia, but how can he make us believe that? I can see someone joking around and if my friend set me up I'd smack him next time I saw him. :)

But really, I don't see any other leads.

[SackAttack]

Because he admitted to it right away, said it was a joke in a string of out of thread comments and mostly because I just don't see any situation where the mafia would send PM's like that.

I guess I could be over estimating Bek, but I don't think so.

Either he is, and fucked up, or he isn't and Blade is and is seizing the opportunity to make it look like Bek is, or neither one of them is and it's all one cosmically horrendous misunderstanding.

I can't see any scenario where it profits Bek to do as he's done if he's a villager, but I'm inclined to give Blade the benefit of the doubt for the time being. It seems like Bek is already the likely target for a lynching tonight, so I'm going to side with illini on this one. vote dubb93.

[dubb93]

He just seemed so ready to try to discredit Sack and point the finger at people trying to defend him.

True enough. I was wrong about Sack, but it seemed odd that 3 people, the number of "presumed" mafia were banning together and insisting that Sack was innocent when I saw no proof(due to the PM being deleted b/f I got a chance to see it). I was wrong and you are more than welcome to you opinion but I'm trying to help out here and I give you my word that I am just a villager.

[SackAttack]

I just got called in to work. Hopefully my vote ends up only being symbolic, and hopefully whichever way it goes, we nail one of those damned Mafia.

Back around 9:30 PST.

[Bearcat729]

Vote dubb93

[dubb93]

Vote dubb93

May I ask why? Your behavior this game has been VERY odd so far. Votes without an explanation contribute nothing to the game.

[Bearcat729]

May I ask why? Your behavior this game has been VERY odd so far. Votes without an explanation contribute nothing to the game.

I haven't a whole lot to go on. Reading over the thread so far I'm not so sure that Blade or Bek are mafia, and as that seems to be the way that tonights bandwagon vote is going. I vote for you because it's not going to get you killed and I have nothing else that points me in any other direction.


As for my random voting pattern. Being a villager with nothing to do until someone slips up is pretty boring. So making everyone wonder why I keep voting for the people I do is the only real form of entertainment I have got from the game so far.

[Neon_Chaos]

Bek - Blade6119, dubb93, digamma, ardent enthusiast, Fouts, pennywiseweb, Shorty3281
Blade6119 -Bek
dubb93 - Illinifan999, Bearcat729, SackAttack
Jeff061 - MrBug708
Fouts - jeff061
Bearcat729 - SnDvls
No Vote - Schmidty

You all gather around Bek and drag him towards the Slaughter Shed. He starts pleading for his life.

"It was a joke! It was a joke! I'm not Mafia! I'm not M-"

A clubbing blow to the side of the head silences Bek. And you start carving him up. After the bloody deed is done, you all head for Bek's room... hoping to find something... anything. You look around, and see nothing of note. It's clear that Bek was a Villager!

Current Players:
1. dubb93
2. ardent enthusiast
3. SackAttack
4. Fouts
5. <STRIKE>RealDeal</STRIKE> - Villager, Lynched Day 1
6. Bearcat729
7. illinifan999
8. MrBug708
9. SnDvls
10. <STRIKE>Mr. Wednesday</STRIKE> - Witness, Killed By Mafia Night 1
11. digamma
12. <strike>bek</strike> - Villager, Lynched Day 3
13. <STRIKE>Aesyrqwe</STRIKE> - Villager, Lynched Day 2
14. Shorty3281
15. pennywisesb
16. Schmidty
17. Blade6119
18. jeff061

It's now Night (3), kindly send in your Night Actions as soon as possible. Deadline for Night Actions is at 9AM EDT.

[digamma]

Damn.

I sort of thought so, but we didn't have anything else to go on. Assuming we lose one tonight, our numbers aren't looking so good.

We need a break.

[Poli]

Ugh!

[dubb93]

I assure you guys I'm still alive and kickin :), might wanna change that Neon.

[dubb93]

Now on to the more important matters, why would a villager send a PM to another one and lie about being mafia? Sounds stupid even if it is a friend. Anyone got any ideas at this point?

[Poli]

:) Good call. Dubb's a villager for sure now. :)

[SnDvls]

ouch

[Blade6119]

ah crap is matt(bek) ever going to kick my ass tonight when we hang out...if i dont post tomorrow please give me your prayers...

Sorry to the group, the PM just sounded sketch...ill prob. check dubb tonight, but im open to any ideas since my role is fairly pupblic knowledge now,...

[illinifan999]

Didn't really think Bek would be that stupid....

[Blade6119]

wait, so did neon slip up and tell us dubb was a villager or just did the wrong name???

[Bek]

*Raising from dead*
I'm glad that no one takes my word when I say that you all are making a mistake and voting for me...but live and learn..good luck to the rest of you
*Devil comes and takes Bek back to Hell*

[kingfc22]

Go Mafia Go!!!

[dubb93]

wait, so did neon slip up and tell us dubb was a villager or just did the wrong name???

I'm a villager. I would prefer you choose someone else for your viewing so we can possibly get a mafia person, but you are more than welcome to clear me if you wish.

[Neon_Chaos]

wait, so did neon slip up and tell us dubb was a villager or just did the wrong name???
I just did the wrong name. I was editing it on the quick reply box and was in a hurry.

[Neon_Chaos]

You wake up in morning, look around and notice that one of you is missing. MrBug708 is nowhere to be found. You head for his room, and do not find him. You do find tons of notes, articles and whatnot. There is a small tape recorder and a camera on the dresser. You hear water running from the bathroom and go inside. MrBug708's lifeless body is hanging from the roof, a rope tightly wound around his neck. With what you have seen in his room, you can only surmise that MrBug708 was the Newspaper Investigator!

Current Players:
1. dubb93
2. ardent enthusiast
3. SackAttack
4. Fouts
5. <STRIKE>RealDeal</STRIKE> - Villager, Lynched Day 1
6. Bearcat729
7. illinifan999
8. <strike>MrBug708</strike> - Newspaper Investigator, Killed By Mafia Night 3
9. SnDvls
10. <STRIKE>Mr. Wednesday</STRIKE> - Witness, Killed By Mafia Night 1
11. digamma
12. <STRIKE>bek</STRIKE> - Villager, Lynched Day 3
13. <STRIKE>Aesyrqwe</STRIKE> - Villager, Lynched Day 2
14. Shorty3281
15. pennywisesb
16. Schmidty
17. Blade6119
18. jeff061

It is now Day (4). Votes are due at 9PM EDT.

[illinifan999]

Boy we just keep getting fucked. :(

[Poli]

I'm trying to trust you blade...I just don't know what to say.

[digamma]

That does suck.

So much for having anything to go on for tomorrow's vote.

[Fouts]

WTF. I am really confused now.

[dubb93]

Wouldn't they have killed the known seer if he really was a seer? What the hell is Blade's role that lets him view people anyway? I must have missed that somewhere.

[hoopsguy]

This is like the bizzaro version of the quick vampire game - the villagers are getting mauled.

[illinifan999]

Unless he's another witness....

[illinifan999]

Unless he's another witness....
That was meant for the speculation about blade. I'd rather think that he wouldn't lie about something that could so easily be disproved.....

[dubb93]

Right now my 2 main suspects are Blade and Bearcat, I will make a big post with my views on everyone sometime 2morrow. I'll give ya real quick reasons right now....

Blade: Claims he is a seer. "sold" out his friend who was joking, we had no way to know if he was joking as we don't know how they joke between each other. I will say this, if my friend was BS'n me I would be able to tell, or atleast confront him about it b/f I went public. And if he was really a seer and not with the mafia they would have killed him last night....unless that is what they want us to think. Anyway he "claims" to have viewed me last night, it will be interesting to see if he tries to frame me next. Something tells me he may be a mafia seer looking for the son of the don.

Bearcat: Just flat out weird. Voted Realdeal on day 1 without giving a reason. This is no suprise as nearly everyone including myself voted Realdeal on day 1(although it wasn't counted b/c he didn't bold his vote), but WE ALL GAVE A REASON! His post contained no reason, just the vote. Votes Sack on day 2, again, no reason given. He unvotes Sack saying he didn't have a reason...and votes Shorty claiming his joke of calling us idiots is "fishy." Day 3, votes me, gives no reason. I call him on it and he says he voted me b/c it isn't going to get me killed and acknowledges he has had a completely random voting patern.

Bearcat is flying under the radar, trying not to make enemies and trying to go unnoticed. His behavior has been very erratic, but I'm not 100% sure it's enough to label him mafia yet.

[Vince]

Is there a mercy rule?

:)

[Blade6119]

Blade: Claims he is a seer. "sold" out his friend who was joking, we had no way to know if he was joking as we don't know how they joke between each other. I will say this, if my friend was BS'n me I would be able to tell, or atleast confront him about it b/f I went public. And if he was really a seer and not with the mafia they would have killed him last night....unless that is what they want us to think. Anyway he "claims" to have viewed me last night, it will be interesting to see if he tries to frame me next. Something tells me he may be a mafia seer looking for the son of the don.

A couple things, i havent yet submitted my scan for tonight since i thought i would die...secondly, my bet is i didnt die because they knew the cop would protect me and they didnt want to waste a kill....my assumption is the don's son was night two..with him out there i cant imagine neon would let them bribe, so i think they got him on night two during the no-kill and we have four up against us. I spoke with matt this evening, and he expressed his concern over me killing him...i cant tell when hes joking usually, but he sent this over PM and not in person...no smilies, nothing...i couldnt decode that. Im not going to scan you, as i still think neon tipped his hand, but were at the point where we cant miss even one day now since the reporter is gone...

I can reiterate to you, killing me wil help the ratio of mafia-villager ratio...im not a villager, but im not a mafia either...i do count as a villager though, so killing me will only hurt the ever decreasing ratio(i think its 8-4 now...thats means tomorrow and maybe another) I will continue to scan, and hope the cop didnt protect me last night and will do so tonight so we can try and win this still. if you doubt that, well, act on it...were already soo fucked over it wont matter...

[dubb93]

A couple things, i havent yet submitted my scan for tonight since i thought i would die...secondly, my bet is i didnt die because they knew the cop would protect me and they didnt want to waste a kill....my assumption is the don's son was night two..with him out there i cant imagine neon would let them bribe, so i think they got him on night two during the no-kill and we have four up against us. I spoke with matt this evening, and he expressed his concern over me killing him...i cant tell when hes joking usually, but he sent this over PM and not in person...no smilies, nothing...i couldnt decode that. Im not going to scan you, as i still think neon tipped his hand, but were at the point where we cant miss even one day now since the reporter is gone...

I can reiterate to you, killing me wil help the ratio of mafia-villager ratio...im not a villager, but im not a mafia either...i do count as a villager though, so killing me will only hurt the ever decreasing ratio(i think its 8-4 now...thats means tomorrow and maybe another) I will continue to scan, and hope the cop didnt protect me last night and will do so tonight so we can try and win this still. if you doubt that, well, act on it...were already soo fucked over it wont matter...

I'll take this post under consideration, and I didn't mean to sound like an ass which it kinda sounds like I did re-reading what I posted about you being able to tell if yur friend was BS'n. I know it doesn't seem you took offense to it, but I'll just throw that out that I didn't mean anything personal about that.

I'm not going to cast a vote for a while, I want to write up a report on everyone 2morrow, see what I can gather and hope to get some other peoples feedback. We REALLY need to get a mafia person 2morrow, even if it turns out to be you ;)

[MrBug708]

Man...

[SackAttack]

I'm a little bit surprised the Mafia have nailed major roles in successive nights. That just doesn't seem statistically probable.

[jeff061]

Wait, so yo didn't scan anyone last night Blade?

[digamma]

Wait, so yo didn't scan anyone last night Blade?
That's how I read it. What a disaster.

[jeff061]

Well the deadline is 9am, so by the rules he had another 9 hours to get his viewing in.

[digamma]

I guess that's true, but Neon is halfway across the world and usually isn't up during our "day."

[Bearcat729]

I'm a little bit surprised the Mafia have nailed major roles in successive nights. That just doesn't seem statistically probable.


It could be luck. With every vote so far resulting in the death of a normal villager the chances of the mafia picking a major role would have to increase. It seems to me that the people who nobody is talking about would be the more likely candidates to be mafia.

[jeff061]

I tend to agree. That doesn't mean they are all being quiet though, just that this early in the game they are not going to take any actions that stick out.

[SackAttack]

Upon further reconsideration, I'm suspecting Blade and Shorty are Mafia.

Why? Blade, we already know, has claimed to be a seer. He has further claimed that it was unnecessary to view Bek because he "knew" Bek was a Mafioso, and said that such a viewing would have been wasted in light of that knowledge.

Bek, of course, turned out to be a villager, and despite Blade's "revelation," he wasn't the prime target of the Mafia last night. There's really no way they could have known Bug was the Newspaper Reporter unless one of their players has a similar role and just managed to hit the jackpot, so I don't see any other logical reason for them to choose to leave Blade alive while they take out random villagers.

Also, he apparently did not view anybody last night (although this is probably the flimsiest straw in my case against him).

So why do I think Shorty is also a Mafioso?

Well, Blade claimed to have viewed both Shorty and myself in the first two nights, and declared both of us "clean." If most of the villagers already trusted me before that point - and I'd like to think that's the case - what better way to slip another Mafioso inside the "circle of trust" than to label him "clean" along with another player already known or suspected to be safe?

And yet...we really have nothing to go on to this point but Blade's word that he isn't a Mafioso. We have claims that he's viewed Shorty and myself, but we also have an assertion that viewing Bek was unnecessary, when we now know that if he's on the level, and had he acted on his suspicions and viewed Bek, an innocent villager could have been saved. We have either a failure to scan anybody last night, or else the following proposition:

The Mafia are incredibly lucky, hitting on two important villagers in successive attacks, while our own seer is either incompetent, or simply so mistrustful of his fellow villagers that he's selecting safe people each night to view, on the hypothesis that it's "always the ones you wouldn't otherwise suspect.

That I suspect Shorty isn't because of anything Shorty has or hasn't done, but simply because I believe Blade to be a Mafioso at this point, and that being so, it would make perfect sense to me for him to try and slip Shorty inside the village's "circle of trust."

So I vote Shorty.

My reasoning here is that if my hypothesis is true and correct, uncovering Shorty will expose Blade in a major way. After all, if Bek was innocent and Shorty guilty - both the opposite of Blade's assertions - then we know Blade is lying, and we have our target for tomorrow night.

If I'm wrong, then we've made another horrible mistake, but we've made quite a few of those this game, and it isn't as though I have anything better than this to go on right now thanks to the witness and newspaper reporter croaking.

[jeff061]

That's a possibility. I also know if I was Mafia I would of attacked Blade last night, and two nights in a row if he was protected. His role is more than powerful enough to risk going one night without a kill.

[illinifan999]

Part of me wants to believe that Blade is a witness role and is telling the truth about Sack and shorty being clean.

The other part thinks that Sack is onto something but that maybe he is a mafia role. I know I defended you early on, but I just don't know. Your theory is great if blade isn't really a witness, but if he is telling the truth and is just playing the role as poorly as some people told me in the last game when I was a duke but ended up nailing someone on the first day then maybe you're the lost son and shorty is clean. Or maybe you're both clean and this is going to send another one of us into the lynching which is the last thing we need. I'm looking pretty suspicious at bearcat right now for the same reasons as dubb, but there is just a feeling I have that dubb might be mafia.

So at the end of this post, I'm just very paranoid and think pretty much everyone but me is in the mafia. :(

[pennywisesb]

Part of me wants to believe that Blade is a witness role and is telling the truth about Sack and shorty being clean.

The other part thinks that Sack is onto something but that maybe he is a mafia role. I know I defended you early on, but I just don't know. Your theory is great if blade isn't really a witness, but if he is telling the truth and is just playing the role as poorly as some people told me in the last game when I was a duke but ended up nailing someone on the first day then maybe you're the lost son and shorty is clean. Or maybe you're both clean and this is going to send another one of us into the lynching which is the last thing we need. I'm looking pretty suspicious at bearcat right now for the same reasons as dubb, but there is just a feeling I have that dubb might be mafia.

So at the end of this post, I'm just very paranoid and think pretty much everyone but me is in the mafia. :(
I agree with Illinifan here. At this point its so hard to tell who is who. I still can't believe what Blade's doing at this point, but I have to feel its more attributed to mistakes made by him, rather than him actually being a part of the mafia.

I also like the point Sack made about Shorty. So, at this point, I'm leaning towards Shorty but I'm gonna wait to cast a vote. I also feel that Sackattack is in my circle of trust because at this point, it seems as though him and I are analyzing along the same lines.

[Blade6119]

I submitted my scan of fouts last night and he turned up clean...i wont be around today since i have to help my sister move into her new apartment, but were at the point in the game where we have to hit jackpot every day(if my math is right)...Now if i was mafia, and bek agreed over dinner last night, why target me last night? The cop would have been protecting me, and they would have wasted a night...you then can kill me easy and clean tonight since he cant protect the same person two nights in a row...instead of getting 1 block and a kill, they get 2 kills(by amazing luck it looks like both seers...). The mafia are a day or so away from having a 1-1 ratio, think long and hard before you act...fyi though, sack, dubb, penny are all talkative...i havent heared too much from fouts or ardent...either way could mean mafia, but going over that list i didnt even know fouts was playing...thats why i scanned him...I wont be around, so ill stick to my new prime target that fouts is clear...

Vote Ardent

havent heared more than a short word here or there all game from an ardent who is certainly on the board alot...

[Poli]

Sorry, ain't me, bud. I've been caught up way too much in the other werewolf game as of late. I'll admit I should be reading and posting here more. In fact, the latest mistake by you has me thinking either you or shorty.

[jeff061]

Like I said, if I was mafia I would attack you both nights without hesitation, just to make sure.

I don't buy into the "Vote the Quiet ones" strategy.

[Blade6119]

Sorry, ain't me, bud. I've been caught up way too much in the other werewolf game as of late. I'll admit I should be reading and posting here more. In fact, the latest mistake by you has me thinking either you or shorty.

Might in inquire as to my latest mistake? I got my scan in last night at 9:00 my time(pacific)...neon was on, replied to a few questions i had besides the scan, and i went to a movie knowing fouts was in the clear..i didnt post it immediately after i got it, so if thats a mistake im sorry, but i had it last night and didnt miss any deadlines...on night one i submitted my scan after the night results went up as well, no worries...Id like you to inform me of my other mistakes so i can learn or not make them again...thanks for you help old friend

[Poli]

Might in inquire as to my latest mistake?
Well, it wasn't about the scan, but that did have me worried as well. Your wording was, well, not good. A few of us definitely were concerned. I was talking about the bek situation, actually.

[Blade6119]

Like I said, if I was mafia I would attack you both nights without hesitation, just to make sure.

I don't buy into the "Vote the Quiet ones" strategy.

Fair enough, then stick to your guns and take shorty or i...but god, trust sack attack..because if he says so he has to be clean(and note, he posted his role on day two...if he was mafia and they have a seer, he could just repost the role exactly as i did in the x-com game...in my mind his role reveal didnt mean squat..hence why i scanned him...and since you all doubt me and shorty i dont see how he gets by inspection...but anywho, hope you do well...just remember, i count on the villager tab for the ratio that will end the game...killing me only helps the mafia(hell, even makes tonight easy for them)

[jeff061]

You know it is possible to be suspicious of more than two people. I already mentioned Sack would be the top candidate for conversion.

[Poli]

To be honest, I find it really hard to believe you could be 0-3 in scans.

[jeff061]

18 players and maybe 3-4 mafia? I don't think that' would be odd.

[dubb93]

Here is some food for thought....Bugs last 2 actions before death were voting for Jeff and saying he doesn't trust Shorty. Those are from a CONFIRMED seer. Something tells me he hit something on atleast 1 of them.

[jeff061]

And Blade you go to stop being so dramatic :) You haven't even got a single vote towards you, and no one said they would vote for you.

[pennywisesb]

Here is some food for thought....Bugs last 2 actions before death were voting for Jeff and saying he doesn't trust Shorty. Those are from a CONFIRMED seer. Something tells me he hit something on atleast 1 of them.

I agree with this too. For some reason whenever I'm analyzing whats going on I keep coming back to Shorty.

[jeff061]

Here is some food for thought....Bugs last 2 actions before death were voting for Jeff and saying he doesn't trust Shorty. Those are from a CONFIRMED seer. Something tells me he hit something on atleast 1 of them.

Yeah I see where your coming from, I know(well think) he did not hit anything because I'm innocent and he voted for me over Shorty.

Yeah, I know that's far from considered fact from anyone but me :D.

[jeff061]

I agree with this too. For some reason whenever I'm analyzing whats going on I keep coming back to Shorty.

This is my likely vote. But I think if Bug had anything solid he would of voted on Shorty. Certainly doesn't wipe out ofher existing suspicions though.

[Poli]

18 players and maybe 3-4 mafia? I don't think that' would be odd.You're right, I guess I didn't think that through. I was thinking along the lines or remaining villagers. There's 12 villagers available, since he wouldn't scan himself. There's 2 he says he's scanned, so cut them out. Of the 10, there's 3-4 mafia. I would think those odds are good myself. But as I think of it, Bug was probably still alive and a possibility, so that reduces the probability.

[dubb93]

Bearcat has been lurking for a long time.....

[digamma]

Blade's "act" just isn't adding up for me.

I'm not convinced about Shorty.

If we think Blade is mafia, why aren't we just voting for him? Why take a shot at the short one here?

[pennywisesb]

and the second you posted that he signed off......

[pennywisesb]

Blade's "act" just isn't adding up for me.

I'm not convinced about Shorty.

If we think Blade is mafia, why aren't we just voting for him? Why take a shot at the short one here?

I understand what you are saying. I'm still trying to figure out my the mafia wouldn't try to take Blade out last night and took a shot in the dark on Bug. I'm getting more and more suspicious of Blade.

[jeff061]

If we think Blade is mafia, why aren't we just voting for him? Why take a shot at the short one here?

On the off chance that he's telling the truth it would hurt.

[Blade6119]

And Blade you go to stop being so dramatic :) You haven't even got a single vote towards you, and no one said they would vote for you.

I cant change how paranoid i am of dying...my idea is if i drill it into there wil lbe no doubt...since it looks like their leaning to shorty now, and for all i know shorty was the dons son and got taken on night two im nervous...because if shorty is bad, the next day vote wont even be two seconds, regardless of how fair it is...I am never the guy no one notices, and i like it that way since it more fun to be talkative as hell, but its frustrating since im always on the chopping block. I put myself there to make the game more fun, as i dont find it fun to sit there quiet and not post, but its still seems like im always fighting for my life...and if im to die, i shall do so as dramatic as possible to make everyone feel bad for doing so wrongly afterwards lol...gotta get the hollywood dramatics in, adds excitement for the gameto me...at the end of the day its a game, and no matter how dramtic you think i am your wrong...its all me trying to make the game more exciting and fun...it takes controversy like me/realdeal or me/bek or the split x-com vote near the end to make a game truly great...and great games are more fun...everything you see from me is probobly me trying to dramaticize and make my role more fun...if it gets me killed, on to next game :) Know what i mean?

i thought i would explain my irrational behavior...and i highly doubt any of you found the bek or real deal situations didnt add anything to the game...hell, were basing our votes today for shorty off the fact that i said he was clean becuase i got bek killed...the whole game is shaping around me dropping one PM into the thread...and everyone is having more fun for it i hope. Im off for the day, vote well boys

[pennywisesb]

I cant change how paranoid i am of dying...my idea is if i drill it into there wil lbe no doubt...since it looks like their leaning to shorty now, and for all i know shorty was the dons son and got taken on night two im nervous...because if shorty is bad, the next day vote wont even be two seconds, regardless of how fair it is...I am never the guy no one notices, and i like it that way since it more fun to be talkative as hell, but its frustrating since im always on the chopping block. I put myself there to make the game more fun, as i dont find it fun to sit there quiet and not post, but its still seems like im always fighting for my life...and if im to die, i shall do so as dramatic as possible to make everyone feel bad for doing so wrongly afterwards lol...gotta get the hollywood dramatics in, adds excitement for the gameto me...at the end of the day its a game, and no matter how dramtic you think i am your wrong...its all me trying to make the game more exciting and fun...it takes controversy like me/realdeal or me/bek or the split x-com vote near the end to make a game truly great...and great games are more fun...everything you see from me is probobly me trying to dramaticize and make my role more fun...if it gets me killed, on to next game :) Know what i mean?

i thought i would explain my irrational behavior...and i highly doubt any of you found the bek or real deal situations didnt add anything to the game...hell, were basing our votes today for shorty off the fact that i said he was clean becuase i got bek killed...the whole game is shaping around me dropping one PM into the thread...and everyone is having more fun for it i hope. Im off for the day, vote well boys

What the hell?

[Blade6119]

What the hell?

My style of play was repetively criticized by some people...so i responded to it...this isnt just this game penny, people think im too open with my role and ideas in every game...bug jeff and henry have all said along these lines, and there have been others...just answering my critics before i leave

[dubb93]

todays vote is going to be interesting, so many suspects....bearcat....blade....shorty....some people suspect me, i'm off for a couple hours, be back with my analysis so if it looks like I'm lurking in a couple hours its b/c I'm writing that up.

[jeff061]

Open with your roles, yes, you need to stop that :).

Ideas are fine, just realize if you take these ideas and forcefully state someone is guilty because of it you'll be scrutinized when they are innocent. Other than you revealing your roles I have no problem with your style.

[Fouts]

Just got online and after researching MrBug's posts, he didn't say a whole lot. He did post that he believed in blade. His votes were;

Day 1 - no vote
Day 2 - Aesyrqwe
Day 3 - jeff

I believe Blade, mostly because he knows I am a villager, and I think the 3 guys he has scanned are all villagers. Right now I am leaning towards voting for jeff. Jeff ran us down the realdeal track, and has voted for me the last two days with nothing to base it on. Going to look over some recent posts and see if anything else pops up.

[jeff061]

I'll wait :D. I have no defense to being voted on by a seer role, but he was just suspicious of me for whatever unstated reason, nothing more.

I don't know what RealDeal has to do with anything or how it is inciminating, I mean you voted him as well.

[jeff061]

and has voted for me the last two days with nothing to base it on

I stated what I based it on. Which is more than the reasons you have given for who you have voted on.

[SackAttack]

I was working on a nice long post before my journalism class started, but I didn't get it finished in time to post it, so I'm basically starting from scratch here.

There's just too many things that don't add up about Blade's play lately, and the talk of "being paranoid because of criticism of my play in recent games" makes a fine cover for erratic play here.

As to why Shorty, well, I have deep concerns about both players, but there's the possibility that Blade is telling the truth about being a seer of some kind. If that's the case, I'd prefer not to make a mistake on that.

I think that pretending to be a seer is a great way to try and slip a Mafioso into the 'trusted' circle, and we've not seen much of substance from Shorty. If I'm wrong, then Blade is either innocent, or since he knows who the villagers are, he's throwing two confirmed names out there to try and gain trust (well, I guess three by now).

That's getting overly paranoid, though, and I prefer not to get into that because it just confuses the issue.

I'm going to stick with my vote for Shorty. I don't have anything other than my analysis to back me up, but my gut is screaming at me that my hunch is correct. I hope it is, because I don't want to see any more innocent villagers lynched.

[Fouts]

Well, I don't know much about shorty other than what blade posted. I agree that shorty has been quiet, but the basis of your vote is that blade is mafia, so shorty must be mafia? It is possible, but if you want us to not believe blade, then you and I are suspects as well in blade's mafia posse.

[jeff061]

What had me swing more in Shorty's direction, from Sack's earlier post:


Well, Blade claimed to have viewed both Shorty and myself in the first two nights, and declared both of us "clean." If most of the villagers already trusted me before that point - and I'd like to think that's the case - what better way to slip another Mafioso inside the "circle of trust" than to label him "clean" along with another player already known or suspected to be safe?

Whether Fouts is implicated in this I'm not sure, would Blade try the trick a second time after he had some heat on him? And I do realize Sack could be converted, I've been saying that since early day two.

[SackAttack]

Well, I don't know much about shorty other than what blade posted. I agree that shorty has been quiet, but the basis of your vote is that blade is mafia, so shorty must be mafia? It is possible, but if you want us to not believe blade, then you and I are suspects as well in blade's mafia posse.

Not that he *must* be, but rather that I think there's a high likelihood of it.

Look, if Blade is Mafia, having every single person he "clears" be Mafia would be stretching belief. If you want to hide something in plain sight, you need to make sure that you're providing good camouflage. "Clearing" two or three truly innocent villagers and then trying to slip a wolf in sheep's clothing in the group would be a smart play. If he gets proven right about one of them being a villager, then perhaps suspicion drops away from the others - including the one who's really a Mafioso.

And honestly, I probably wouldn't even suspect Shorty if not for Blade's nonchalance about trying to ascertain Bek's true identity. If he's really a seer, it should have been a simple matter to scan Bek, but instead he chose to rely fully on what we now know was a joke PM, and to totally eschew any other form of evidence that might have convicted or cleared Bek.

That smells fishy to me. I have strong doubts about Blade, stronger than I do Shorty, but given the nature of the role Blade is claiming, it's "safer," if you will, to vote for the other person about whom I have suspicions (and, not coincidentally, somebody Blade has "cleared") and see if my hypothesis is right or wrong.

If I'm wrong, better to be wrong about a villager than a seer.

But if I'm right, exposing Shorty automatically exposes Blade. It's a two-for-one special.

[jeff061]

And as a side note, just something to keep in mind for the future(depending how things turn out), Digamma put the feelers out there to lynch Blade.

[Fouts]

What had me swing more in Shorty's direction, from Sack's earlier post:



Whether Fouts is implicated in this I'm not sure, would Blade try the trick a second time after he had some heat on him? And I do realize Sack could be converted, I've been saying that since early day two.

My point is that if we don't trust blade as a seer, then the 3 people he has viewed as a villager (shorty, sack, myself) can't be trusted. I choose to believe him, since I think all 3 are villagers and I have no information that he isn't a seer. Unfortunately, he hasn't given us any information to go on for voting.

The dead seer (mrbug) voted for you (jeff). Which is why I am voting this way. I wish he could confirm this vote, but he was conveniently killed.

I vote jeff

[jeff061]

Well, I was going to vote this anyways, but just to hopefully stem a bandwagon.

Vote Shorty

The other person bug voted for was innocent and so am I.

[jeff061]

And I hope people think enough of me as not to think I'd kill the lone guy that votes for me without knowing his role, if i were guilty :).

[digamma]

So, there are 13 of us left:

Current Players:
1. dubb93
2. ardent enthusiast
3. SackAttack
4. Fouts
5. <strike>RealDeal</strike> - Villager, Lynched Day 1
6. Bearcat729
7. illinifan999
8. MrBug708
9. SnDvls
10. <strike>Mr. Wednesday</strike> - Witness, Killed By Mafia Night 1
11. digamma
12. <strike>bek</strike> - Villager, Lynched Day 3
13. <strike>Aesyrqwe</strike> - Villager, Lynched Day 2
14. Shorty3281
15. pennywisesb
16. Schmidty
17. Blade6119
18. jeff061

If Blade is to be believed, then he, SackAttack, Fouts and Shorty are all clean (unless Shorty or Sack were converted). Of that, I'm very confident that SackAttack is clean.

So, again, if Blade is to be believed, then the mafia must be among dubb, ardent, Bearcat, illinifan, Bug, SunDvls, pennywisesb, Schmidty and me.

[Bearcat729]

It seems to me that it is possible that Sack going for Shorty could backfire. If we all vote for Shorty and then it comes out that he was a villager it will make Sack look a little more guilty.

To me that after showing that Bek was innocent that Blade became a little bigger of a target for scrutiny. Perhaps the cop was going to protect him which means that it would be a wasted night for the mafia. Perhaps the reason no one died on night 2 was because the cop protected someone and we just don't know it because the cop didn't feel that it was good to let the mafia know who he was.

The more I think about it the less I trust Blade. It seems easy that I could have pretended to be a seer and said so and so was a normal villager, but the way I've played the game so far hasn't worked out to my advantage at all. So I Vote Blade6119

[Fouts]

And I hope people think enough of me as not to think I'd kill the lone guy that votes for me without knowing his role, if i were guilty :).

Normally, I would agree with this, but with a huge lead the mafia could feel they can overcome the direct implication. Like last game, the mafia probably has a seer of their own, which would explain them nailing the witness and reporter.

My theory is that the mafia saw mrbug and took him down immediately because they couldn't afford to keep him looking around. They think they can overcome any votes in jeff's direction. Now if I'm wrong, then its unfortunate for jeff because he was "randomly" picked by mrbug.

[jeff061]

Just keep in mind if your wrong you've lynched a seer. Which is the only reason Shorty is the target.

[jeff061]

Like last game, the mafia probably has a seer of their own, which would explain them nailing the witness and reporter.

I was going to ask this. No luck for me :).

[illinifan999]

There's this lurking suspicion brought out by Sack that blade might just be a mafia seer which makes me really nervous. This vote isn't set in stone as I usually like to wait about an hour before the deadline to finalize my vote, but

I vote blade6119

[Bearcat729]

Just keep in mind if your wrong you've lynched a seer. Which is the only reason Shorty is the target.


So far every bandwagon vote has done nothing but save the mafia in the game some time, and allow them to kill more useful villagers. If I'm wrong it will mean my death tomorrow because there are enough people who don't trust me as it is.

[Poli]

I'm having a tough time trusting blade myself, but I'll reserve my vote for later. Something just isn't adding up. If he's dirty, I'd have to think shorty or Sackattack is as well.

Softball practice and my flag football game isn't until later tonight.

[jeff061]

So far every bandwagon vote has done nothing but save the mafia in the game some time,

I'm not sure how you'd classify a "bandwagon vote" to make that statement. I certainly don't consider a vote against Shorty, at least mine, a bandwagon vote. I see risks and benefits, either way, and think it's a good choice.

Also on the plus side, if he is innocent, we haven't lost a heavy contributor.

[korme]

Upon further reconsideration, I'm suspecting Blade and Shorty are Mafia.

So why do I think Shorty is also a Mafioso?

Well, Blade claimed to have viewed both Shorty and myself in the first two nights, and declared both of us "clean." If most of the villagers already trusted me before that point - and I'd like to think that's the case - what better way to slip another Mafioso inside the "circle of trust" than to label him "clean" along with another player already known or suspected to be safe?

And yet...we really have nothing to go on to this point but Blade's word that he isn't a Mafioso. We have claims that he's viewed Shorty and myself, but we also have an assertion that viewing Bek was unnecessary, when we now know that if he's on the level, and had he acted on his suspicions and viewed Bek, an innocent villager could have been saved. We have either a failure to scan anybody last night, or else the following proposition:

The Mafia are incredibly lucky, hitting on two important villagers in successive attacks, while our own seer is either incompetent, or simply so mistrustful of his fellow villagers that he's selecting safe people each night to view, on the hypothesis that it's "always the ones you wouldn't otherwise suspect.

That I suspect Shorty isn't because of anything Shorty has or hasn't done, but simply because I believe Blade to be a Mafioso at this point, and that being so, it would make perfect sense to me for him to try and slip Shorty inside the village's "circle of trust."

So I vote Shorty.

My reasoning here is that if my hypothesis is true and correct, uncovering Shorty will expose Blade in a major way. After all, if Bek was innocent and Shorty guilty - both the opposite of Blade's assertions - then we know Blade is lying, and we have our target for tomorrow night.

If I'm wrong, then we've made another horrible mistake, but we've made quite a few of those this game, and it isn't as though I have anything better than this to go on right now thanks to the witness and newspaper reporter croaking.

Oh my God, how brilliant you are.

" That I suspect Shorty isn't because of anything Shorty has or hasn't done, but simply because I believe Blade to be a Mafioso"

Sherlock, you've done it again. You're just trying to string anything together. That's kind of bullshit.

Here's my take:

I don't know what Blade is, but he claimed to be the Seer. He called out me and you, said we were clean. Felt re-assuring. Then he says Bek is a mafia-member. Turns out he isn't. Kinda makes you take a step back and re-analyze the situation- why would Blade do that? Was it a misunderstanding? Lots of questions to figure out today.

I just know that if the reason you think I'm not a freakin' villager is because you don't think Blade is either, that's not fair to me because simply he chose our names and no one elses.

I like this quote too- " My reasoning here is that if my hypothesis is true and correct, uncovering Shorty will expose Blade in a major way."

You are basically suggesting we take one for the team by lynching me, and then we can really get to the bottom of this and see what Blade is! http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

[SackAttack]

It seems to me that it is possible that Sack going for Shorty could backfire. If we all vote for Shorty and then it comes out that he was a villager it will make Sack look a little more guilty.]

If I'm wrong - and I don't think I am - but if I am wrong, then it backfires in two ways. 1) we lose an innocent villager, and 2) if it makes me look guilty enough that you guys vote for me tomorrow, we lose another. In short, we make quick enough work of ourselves that the Mafia hardly have to do anything.

So, yes, there is a risk inherent in my analysis, which is the assumption that Blade is savvy enough to make a play to get one of the Mafia inserted into a trusted position.

If Blade is Mafia but I've overestimated him and Shorty is clean, then we've nuked an innocent villager and Blade escapes.

But I really don't see the percentage in Blade making sure that the only people he labels as 'clean' really are. If he's Mafia, he's whittling down the list of suspects for us. Why narrow down the list of who might be Mafia? It's like looking at the villagers and going "Oh, they're sucking right now, let's help them out and make it interesting," and maybe in the process he blows the whole endgame.

He could be clean.

He could be dirty.

But what my vote, and others', comes down to is simply this: Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt.

The problem is that it doesn't work the other way. If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty. Voting for Shorty is just the higher percentage play in my book.

[Fouts]

If it weren't for that mistakenly posted PM by you, we could replace shorty's name with yours and your theory would be the same.

[SackAttack]

I don't know what Blade is, but he claimed to be the Seer. He called out me and you, said we were clean. Felt re-assuring. Then he says Bek is a mafia-member. Turns out he isn't. Kinda makes you take a step back and re-analyze the situation- why would Blade do that? Was it a misunderstanding? Lots of questions to figure out today.

Which is precisely what led to my line of reasoning and analysis.

I just know that if the reason you think I'm not a freakin' villager is because you don't think Blade is either, that's not fair to me because simply he chose our names and no one elses.

Doesn't have to be fair if I'm right. My analysis is my reason for voting the way I am. If the others trust me and my reasoning enough to join me, so be it. If they don't, so be that, too.

I'm only posting what my gut is telling me is the case.

I like this quote too- " My reasoning here is that if my hypothesis is true and correct, uncovering Shorty will expose Blade in a major way."

You are basically suggesting we take one for the team by lynching me, and then we can really get to the bottom of this and see what Blade is! http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

If you're innocent, it doesn't do a bit of good as far as getting to the bottom of Blade's true role. I admit that. But what I'm saying is, if you're guilty, it means that Blade almost certainly has to be as well, since he cleared you. It's the best I have to go on right now, and it's certainly a better way to proceed than to just start voting for random villagers on absolutely no grounds whatsoever.

[SackAttack]

If it weren't for that mistakenly posted PM by you, we could replace shorty's name with yours and your theory would be the same.

True. The theory makes sense either way, but only IF Blade is a Mafioso.

I know I'm clean. That leaves Blade, who I've suspected for a couple of days, and Shorty, who I suspect primarily because of some of the ideas that have occurred to me in recent days.

I'm no seer. I can't condemn or clear anybody. All I can do is post what I see, what I think, and why I think it.

I think they're both Mafia, but I think the safest play - just on the chance I'm wrong - is Shorty. Lynching Blade today, even though I think he's Mafia, proves absolutely nothing other than, yay, we got one. If I were to get lynched, you guys would still be facing the same doubts tomorrow: was Sack right? was one of the 'clean' guys clean and the other dirty? You lose a villager, you still haven't caught a Mafioso, and there's the chance for another death tonight.

Now consider this. If either myself or Shorty were to get lynched tomorrow, that doesn't prove anything, because there's the possibility one of us gets converted tonight.

Today, we are still what we are. If Shorty gets lynched today and is innocent, and I get lynched tomorrow and am Mafia at that point, all that means is that I may have been converted during the night actions. And, yes, the same is true in reverse.

So what it comes down to is:

Does my theory make enough sense to warrant going after either myself or Shorty?

Would I post such a theory if I were guilty, knowing it might swing attention my way?

If there's reasonable suspicion of Blade, is it better to go after him directly and worry about other potential Mafiosos later, or try and knock out one of the underpinnings first?

I believe they're both guilty. I mean, if I'm wrong, screw the possibility of getting lynched tomorrow, because if I'm wrong about this, it means we're fucked. We simply haven't got the luxury of a buffer anymore at this point.

[illinifan999]

What I'm thinking if that there is indeed a mafia seer role and blade is it, then he can find out who the cop is, everyone's roles which could really fuck us over. It is a pretty big coincidence that Bug out of everyone is chosen to be killed by the mafia and turns out to be the newspaper investigator. So I guess we have to ask ourselves do we lynch shorty, find out whether he is innocent or a mafia and give blade, a possible mafia seer, another night to check out someone with a possibly important role leading the mafia to get another "lucky" kill? That's pretty much my reasoning behind voting for blade instead of shorty right now. If blade turns out to be a mafia then we have nabbed a mafia and we probably can have shorty the next night giving us a lot better chance than we have right now.

[Fouts]

I believe they're both guilty. I mean, if I'm wrong, screw the possibility of getting lynched tomorrow, because if I'm wrong about this, it means we're fucked. We simply haven't got the luxury of a buffer anymore at this point.

This I agree with, which is why we cannot make a mistake. Either you feel blade is guilty and vote for him, or you believe he is telling the truth and vote for somebody else. I think he is telling the truth, based on his viewings, therefore I choose to vote for somebody else with some guilt attached. If he is mafia, then all three of us are no longer cleared.

I'm heading out for class soon, so I won't be back before the deadline. I hope we get this one right.

[korme]

Well, I was going to vote this anyways, but just to hopefully stem a bandwagon.

Vote Shorty

The other person bug voted for was innocent and so am I.

I'm glad you aren't lazy and really want to get to the bottom of this.. oh wait. "Hopefully bandwagon votes will come! Who cares if we lynch another villager! Atleast it's not my ass!"

If I'm wrong - and I don't think I am - but if I am wrong, then it backfires in two ways. 1) we lose an innocent villager, and 2) if it makes me look guilty enough that you guys vote for me tomorrow, we lose another. In short, we make quick enough work of ourselves that the Mafia hardly have to do anything.

So, yes, there is a risk inherent in my analysis, which is the assumption that Blade is savvy enough to make a play to get one of the Mafia inserted into a trusted position.

If Blade is Mafia but I've overestimated him and Shorty is clean, then we've nuked an innocent villager and Blade escapes.

But I really don't see the percentage in Blade making sure that the only people he labels as 'clean' really are. If he's Mafia, he's whittling down the list of suspects for us. Why narrow down the list of who might be Mafia? It's like looking at the villagers and going "Oh, they're sucking right now, let's help them out and make it interesting," and maybe in the process he blows the whole endgame.

He could be clean.

He could be dirty.

But what my vote, and others', comes down to is simply this: Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt.

The problem is that it doesn't work the other way. If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty. Voting for Shorty is just the higher percentage play in my book.
Solid wordplay Sack. Notice how you lump "Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt. " only MY name into the guilt party. But then you include yourself as you should have done in the first quote: "If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty."

What I'm getting at is that why does my guilt prove Blade's guilt but not yours? You're saying kill me and then we'll know if Blade is guilty or innocent. If we killed you, it'd prove him guilty if you were a mafioso as well. Why are you trying to make it like I'm the only possible person that Blade was lying about, which he wasn't, which makes it even more frustrating. I'm starting to think you might be the Don's Son.

If it weren't for that mistakenly posted PM by you, we could replace shorty's name with yours and your theory would be the same.
Exactly.

[dubb93]

So, yes, there is a risk inherent in my analysis, which is the assumption that Blade is savvy enough to make a play to get one of the Mafia inserted into a trusted position.

If Blade is Mafia but I've overestimated him and Shorty is clean, then we've nuked an innocent villager and Blade escapes.

But I really don't see the percentage in Blade making sure that the only people he labels as 'clean' really are. If he's Mafia, he's whittling down the list of suspects for us. Why narrow down the list of who might be Mafia? It's like looking at the villagers and going "Oh, they're sucking right now, let's help them out and make it interesting," and maybe in the process he blows the whole endgame.

He could be clean.

He could be dirty.

But what my vote, and others', comes down to is simply this: Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt.

The problem is that it doesn't work the other way. If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty. Voting for Shorty is just the higher percentage play in my book.

Here is my problem with this, if you vote Shorty and he's clean it proves nothing, however if you vote Blade and he's dirty then we have something to work with. If Blade is clean then it saves us killing Shorty.

I will say this right now, I'M NOT VOTING BLADE 2Nite, even though he is in my top 2 suspects, b/c I don't think we can risk losing a seer right now. However if it came down between Shorty and Blade, I would vote Blade.

Your theory is that Blade is mafia and that some people he has thrown in there are mafia too, but some are clean. The safe play would be to vote Blade, and if he's dirty you vote Shorty next time, if he's clean then it clears EVERYONE he has said is clean. Either way we learn something. If you lynch Shorty and he's clean we learn nothing, Blade could still be mafia, but Shorty could have been one of the innocent ones.

[korme]

I believe they're both guilty. I mean, if I'm wrong, screw the possibility of getting lynched tomorrow, because if I'm wrong about this, it means we're fucked. We simply haven't got the luxury of a buffer anymore at this point.
Hell yea! Let's risk the entire game on Sack's well-thought out hunch! http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

[SnDvls]

all I know is I'm more confused now than I was when we started.

1) Believe Blade is a villager and is telling the truth (Clears Shorty, Sack, & Fouts)
2) Believe Blade is a mafia and is lying (puts a ? on all three)

It looks pretty simple right? How can you say that by killing one in the clear sets everyone else as good/evil? How can we lose a big role like Blade's?

The witness could view a kill - he's dead
The newspaper reporter could view one person - he's dead

could there be three seer roles for the villagers?

[dubb93]

I believe they're both guilty. I mean, if I'm wrong, screw the possibility of getting lynched tomorrow, because if I'm wrong about this, it means we're fucked. We simply haven't got the luxury of a buffer anymore at this point.

Yes if you are wrong we are fucked, that is why you start at the top and work your way down, vote Blade this time if you must and then vote Shorty....if you vote Shorty first and Blade is telling the truth then we lose 2 villagers[b/c u will still vote Blade next time] to prove that point instead of just 1.

[illinifan999]

could there be three seer roles for the villagers?
That's what I'm having trouble believing. He claims to be a seer for the villagers but so far we've lost 2 key players with viewing capabilities and we have nothing except his say-so on clearing 3 players. I'm thinking there is 2 seer roles for villagers, 1 mafia seer. And since both of our seer's have been killed off by the mafia at the start of the game......

[Fouts]

Why are you trying to make it like I'm the only possible person that Blade was lying about, which he wasn't, which makes it even more frustrating. I'm starting to think you might be the Don's Son.


Wow, now that would be a brilliant play if he were. He would have the safety of his PM, plus the viewing of blade. Perfect.

[Schmidty]

Wow!! I neve thought that Shorty would become the next RealDeal!! You pay the price when you get too emotional in these games, as I can attest to.

Vote Shorty

[Schmidty]

Wow!! I neve thought that Shorty would become the next RealDeal!! You pay the price when you get too emotional in these games, as I can attest to.

Vote Shorty

Nothing personal, by the way Shane.

[SackAttack]

Solid wordplay Sack. Notice how you lump "Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt. " only MY name into the guilt party. But then you include yourself as you should have done in the first quote: "If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty."

*I* know I'm innocent.

I *don't* know that about you.

If I'm trying to explain why I'm voting for you, why further confuse the issue?

After tonight, the ultimate status of the lynchee proves absolutely nothing with regards to Blade. How's that? Whether it's you or me, if we don't get a Mafioso tonight, then whatever happens tomorrow is meaningless because if we WERE both innocent, there's the potential for one of us to get converted tonight after the other one is lynched. Which still leaves questions about Blade.

The problem is that if we lynch Blade tonight and get lucky, it's still down to you and me with no real idea of where to go from there, and we give the Mafia an extra day to keep whittling away.

[quote]What I'm getting at is that why does my guilt prove Blade's guilt but not yours?

Do you really think Blade would be foolish enough to put the majority of the Mafia in his same circle of trust, knowing that if he was found out and lynched, the others would be suspects as well? If he did that, and got caught at it, it would basically gut the Mafia. Why would he do that?

You're saying kill me and then we'll know if Blade is guilty or innocent.

It can only prove him conclusively guilty. Not conclusively innocent.

If we killed you, it'd prove him guilty if you were a mafioso as well. Why are you trying to make it like I'm the only possible person that Blade was lying about, which he wasn't, which makes it even more frustrating.

If I believe Blade is guilty - which I do - and I believe that one of his two 'clean' nominees is actually dirty, but I happen to be one of them, in which direction am I going to look? I know I'm innocent. Even if I weren't, why would I vote for myself? It boils down to either my hunch is correct, or I'm completely off-base.

Posting this hunch if I'm guilty is a terrible idea, because it lets people think exactly what you're thinking: "Maybe Sack is the guilty one!" Like Bek's Mafia joke, it would be a poor play that made absolutely no sense if true.

Maybe I'm wrong. I freely admit that's a possibility. But can anybody show me a scenario in which Blade is not only guilty, but actively clearing true villagers of any Mafia ties rather than trying to use his role to protect his teammates somehow?

[korme]

I'm trying to save my ass. Heh, I guess I am getting too emotional, how? What would you do if you were the prime canidate in this situation, Schmidty? Have a few drinks and laugh it off? I know you too well. You'd be whining your ass off. And how could anyone blame you.. afterall, this is a game of survival, if you don't do anything you can to prove your innocence, then you ought not to be playing.

[korme]

Nothing personal, by the way Shane.
Wow, good one

[dubb93]

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

[korme]

*I* know I'm innocent.

I *don't* know that about you.

Heh. I know I'm innocent. And I certainly don't know about you anymore. Trying so hard to kill off a person in the same predicament as you.



Do you really think Blade would be foolish enough to put the majority of the Mafia in his same circle of trust, knowing that if he was found out and lynched, the others would be suspects as well? If he did that, and got caught at it, it would basically gut the Mafia. Why would he do that?

I never insinuated he was grouping more than one. If I did that, I'd be framining my own name. Way to think that one through, Sack.



If I believe Blade is guilty - which I do - and I believe that one of his two 'clean' nominees is actually dirty, but I happen to be one of them, in which direction am I going to look? I know I'm innocent. Even if I weren't, why would I vote for myself? It boils down to either my hunch is correct, or I'm completely off-base.

Your logic has holes in it, it doesn't check out. Since you believe 100% Blade is a member of the mafia, why risk taking me out? I still don't even know how to vote, because I believe Blade was telling the truth about his Seer role. Otherwise, I'd be voting for you right now. But that doesn't make much sense for me since I think Blade is telling the truth.

[illinifan999]

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/eek.gif

[SackAttack]

Yes if you are wrong we are fucked, that is why you start at the top and work your way down, vote Blade this time if you must and then vote Shorty....if you vote Shorty first and Blade is telling the truth then we lose 2 villagers[b/c u will still vote Blade next time] to prove that point instead of just 1.

If I'm wrong at ANY point here, we're fucked.

If I'm wrong that Blade is Mafia, and we lynch him, then we've potentially lost a seer.

If I'm right that he's Mafia, but wrong that Shorty is too, and we lynch Shorty first, then somebody potentially dies or gets converted tonight, and then we lose Shorty as a villager tomorrow, and then another villager possibly dies or gets converted. Being wrong on that count means we risk losing three villagers while knocking off one Mafioso. We don't have the numbers at this point for that to be a viable strategy.

If I'm wrong that either of these guys are Mafia, and we lynch Shorty first, then we're going to end up being in one crappy-ass situation two days from now.

You'll notice I haven't tried to sway anybody to change their vote. All I'm doing is defending my theory, the reasoning behind it, and why I'm voting the way I am. I realize this is a risky hunch to act on, and I'm not going to strong-arm anybody into following me. If you trust me, and you believe that my reasoning is sound, great. Vote Shorty.

If you trust me but don't think my reasoning is sound enough to vote the way I am, follow your own gut, whether that means Blade first, or somebody else entirely. Do what you think is right.

If you don't trust me, don't lynch Shorty or Blade.

Simple as that.

[SackAttack]

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

I'm confused. If I believe Blade is Mafioso, how does that make me the Son of the Don?

[Schmidty]

I'm trying to save my ass. Heh, I guess I am getting too emotional, how? What would you do if you were the prime canidate in this situation, Schmidty? Have a few drinks and laugh it off? I know you too well. You'd be whining your ass off. And how could anyone blame you.. afterall, this is a game of survival, if you don't do anything you can to prove your innocence, then you ought not to be playing.

You're wrong dude. I've learned that getting too emotional in thses games gets you killed. I've learned that the hard way.

[SackAttack]

Heh. I know I'm innocent. And I certainly don't know about you anymore. Trying so hard to kill off a person in the same predicament as you.

I'm not trying to kill anybody off. I believe both of you are Mafia, and I'm voting accordingly, but the last thing I want is for an innocent villager to get lynched.

I wish both of our seers weren't dead. :(

[korme]

I'm not trying to kill anybody off. That's like shooting a basketball and saying you're not trying to make it. What, you're just fucking around by voting for me? That vote for me was for shits and giggles? Obviously, you're trying to kill me off. Fair enough, I know you'll be disappointed by the results, but fair enough Sack.

[Schmidty]

Now dubbs calling me mafia? Hilarious. That's cool though. What's your evidence against me Mr. Dubb? I'd love to see that, since I am most certainly not Mafia.

Unvote Shorty

Consider yourself called out dubb. I'll be looking at the evidence, and if I see one thing against you, you've got my vote. :)

[dubb93]

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

I might add, Bearcat could easily be re-placed with Jeff, not 100% sure on that one yet, and it would make alot more sense since Bearcat did vote Blade while Jeff is trying to railroad people so let me try again....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Jeff

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

[Schmidty]

I might add, Bearcat could easily be re-placed with Jeff, not 100% sure on that one yet, and it would make alot more sense since Bearcat did vote Blade while Jeff is trying to railroad people so let me try again....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Jeff

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

Again - What's your evidence against me?

[digamma]

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....
Considering the Don's Son doesn't know he's the Don's Son, I think you're talking completely out of your ass.

[Schmidty]

Considering the Don's Son doesn't know he's the Don's Son, I think you're talking completely out of your ass.

Exactly. Don's Son isn't even revealed to him until/unless the mafia convert him.

[dubb93]

Now dubbs calling me mafia? Hilarious. That's cool though. What's your evidence against me Mr. Dubb? I'd love to see that, since I am most certainly not Mafia.

Unvote Shorty

Consider yourself called out dubb. I'll be looking at the evidence, and if I see one thing against you, you've got my vote. :)

Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

Add in the fact that he used the term "OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....", yet doesn't even have the rules of the game clear, makes him look really bad. Add in the fact that I know that I'm a villager (I know, everyone says that, but still I am), and I think I know my vote for the day:

Vote dubb

[pennywisesb]

That's what I'm having trouble believing. He claims to be a seer for the villagers but so far we've lost 2 key players with viewing capabilities and we have nothing except his say-so on clearing 3 players. I'm thinking there is 2 seer roles for villagers, 1 mafia seer. And since both of our seer's have been killed off by the mafia at the start of the game......

Wow, this brought an all new revelation to me. There's no way the villagers started out with 3 seer roles in my opinion. Blade has moved WAY up on my suspicion list (above Shorty at this point).

[SackAttack]

Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

I'm still waiting for a logical explanation of how exactly I'm the Don's Son.

[Schmidty]

Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

Actually, I consider myself to be a pretty poor player at this game even though I enjoy it.

You still have shown me ZERO evidence, other than to label me as mafia out of nowhere. Makes you look extremely bad in my book. If you admit that you were just going on a gut-instinct (like my initial vote for Shorty), I'd be alright with it, but the fact that you "see things clearly", yet have no evidence pretty much indicts yourself.

[pennywisesb]

Dubb, give us your evidence against Schmidty and Bearcat. I'd like to hear it. Both have been pretty quite and I'm interested in hearing what you have to say.

[dubb93]

Considering the Don's Son doesn't know he's the Don's Son, I think you're talking completely out of your ass.

Except the fact he was converted on day 2 and became mafia. Re-read the rules one more time, why was there no kill on night 2? At that point Sack had posted a PM proving he was innocent, made no sense to leave him alive from the mafia standpoint. Why take a shot at getting someone else and leaving A KNOWN, PROVEN innocent around? It make no sense, they went after sack and he was converted. You need to re-read the rules, he is automatically converted if attacked by the mafia.

[Schmidty]

I'm still waiting for a logical explanation of how exactly I'm the Don's Son.

He can't. He made a major mis-step and he knows it.

[Schmidty]

Except the fact he was converted on day 2 and became mafia. Re-read the rules one more time, why was there no kill on night 2? At that point Sack had posted a PM proving he was innocent, made no sense to leave him alive from the mafia standpoint. Why take a shot at getting someone else and leaving A KNOWN, PROVEN innocent around? It make no sense, they went after sack and he was converted. You need to re-read the rules, he is automatically converted if attacked by the mafia.

Hmm. This sounds interesting. I'll have to go back and read some old posts.

[dubb93]

Dubb, give us your evidence against Schmidty and Bearcat. I'd like to hear it. Both have been pretty quite and I'm interested in hearing what you have to say.

Bearcat: Bearcat: Just flat out weird. Voted Realdeal on day 1 without giving a reason. This is no suprise as nearly everyone including myself voted Realdeal on day 1(although it wasn't counted b/c he didn't bold his vote), but WE ALL GAVE A REASON! His post contained no reason, just the vote. Votes Sack on day 2, again, no reason given. He unvotes Sack saying he didn't have a reason...and votes Shorty claiming his joke of calling us idiots is "fishy." Day 3, votes me, gives no reason. I call him on it and he says he voted me b/c it isn't going to get me killed and acknowledges he has had a completely random voting patern.

***Must be pointed out I believe Bearcat is just being quite right now and I no longer believe he is mafia...

Schmidty: Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

***I now believe Jeff is the 4th mafia member:

Jeff: Bug, a known seer voted him as his last act and died for it. Jeff is also trying to railroad Shorty when it makes no sense. Like I said, you start at the top of that little conspiracy and that is Blade. You don't start in the middle where Shorty is.

[illinifan999]

Unvote Blade
Vote Jeff

I just think it's too risky if Blade is in fact a villager seer, and that bug as a seer voted for jeff seems a little fishy.

[SackAttack]

Schmidty: Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

How is one of your own posts conclusive proof against Schmidty? I'm just curious.

[Schmidty]

Schmidty: Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

Yet another post with no evidence....yet things are "clear to you now"? You must be psychic.

The fact that you jumped all over me as soon as I voted Shorty, makes you and Shorty look bad to me.


edit: Grammar

[digamma]

Except the fact he was converted on day 2 and became mafia. Re-read the rules one more time, why was there no kill on night 2? At that point Sack had posted a PM proving he was innocent, made no sense to leave him alive from the mafia standpoint. Why take a shot at getting someone else and leaving A KNOWN, PROVEN innocent around? It make no sense, they went after sack and he was converted. You need to re-read the rules, he is automatically converted if attacked by the mafia.
There are two possibilities for no kill on night 2:

1. Conversion.
2. Protection by the retired cop.

If the mafia hit a witness on night one, got a conversion on night two and got the newspaper reporter on night three, it's probably the greatest run in the history of the Werewolf games. I don't put it past them, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

[korme]

My best hunch is that it is someone that we haven't paid as much attention to as of late. I don't think it's Blade or Sack, since Blade was telling the truth with me I have to assume Sack is a villager too, even though his extreme push to get me out makes me a little more wary.

I'm going to go ahead and vote jeff061, based on what dubb says and to continue that I have thought jeff was sketchy since day 1.

[SnDvls]

I'm more confused than ever on who to vote for now.

can someone give me a vote count/breakdown?

[dubb93]

There are two possibilities for no kill on night 2:

1. Conversion.
2. Protection by the retired cop.

If the mafia hit a witness on night one, got a conversion on night two and got the newspaper reporter on night three, it's probably the greatest run in the history of the Werewolf games. I don't put it past them, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

Very unlikey to get the witness and nespaper reporter yes. But IF Sacks was the Son of the Don, and I believe he was, there is NO OTHER REASON HE IS AROUND, then its not as unlikely as you make it sound. It would have made no sense to have 14 people left and us KNOWING that 1 was innocent. You kill that person and make it 14 left with us not knowing for sure who is innocent.

the fact that you jumped all over me as soon as I voted Shorty, makes you and Shorty look bad to me.

The fact that you would vote Shorty knowing that the only evidence against him depends on Blade being mafia is shady. Like I said, no point in voting Shorty first b/c IF he was innocent it proves nothing, Blade could still be mafia. You start at Blade, if he's innocent everyone in that group(with the exception of Sack since he was viewed on night 1 and converted on night 2) would be cleared, but if he's guilty then you can start weeding through his "cleared" list. Just makes no sense, thats why ALL of you are mafia, you, Sack, Blade, and Jeff.

[dubb93]

Vote Jeff

My above reasoning stands, and it seems the majority of villagers want to take him out 2nite so I'll right along with them.

[digamma]

Jeff: Bug, a known seer voted him as his last act and died for it. Jeff is also trying to railroad Shorty when it makes no sense. Like I said, you start at the top of that little conspiracy and that is Blade. You don't start in the middle where Shorty is.
Bug wasn't known as a seer until after he was dead. The person you've targeted as the mafia seer says he didn't scan Bug. Maybe he did.

I understand you're just trying to move the ball forward, but your methods could use some work. You're just drawing suspicion on yourself.

[dubb93]

Bug wasn't known as a seer until after he was dead. The person you've targeted as the mafia seer says he didn't scan Bug. Maybe he did.

I understand you're just trying to move the ball forward, but your methods could use some work. You're just drawing suspicion on yourself.

It doesn't matter when Bug was known as a seer, his last act was to vote Jeff. We have 1 newspaper reporter, Bug, 1 witness Mr. Wednesday, the odds of us having another are slim to NONE. If I draw suspicion on myself I don't care, feel free to vote me.

[SackAttack]

Very unlikey to get the witness and nespaper reporter yes. But IF Sacks was the Son of the Don, and I believe he was, there is NO OTHER REASON HE IS AROUND, then its not as unlikely as you make it sound.

Really? If they're capable of determining who the Son of the Don is that early in the game, then isn't it just as possible that the reason I'm still around is that they figured out who he was, and in the night they made the conversion, also learned that Bug was the Newspaper Reporter?

In other words...let's say they got lucky on night one, nailed the witness. Bam. Somehow, they discover who the Son of the Don is seriously early, and make the conversion on night two.
Perhaps they have their own seer, who learned Bug's role on night two as well, and Bug was killed on night three.

So there are two possibilities: one, I'm the Son of the Don, which is why I'm not dead, or two, I'm not dead because they've found bigger fish to fry. Which, pretty clearly in nailing a Witness and Reporter and potentially finding the Don's son, they have.

Now...if I'm the Son of the Don, and they've found me already, why am I targeting Blade, somebody who keeps popping up on other people's lists, since he would be on my side?

Let's even say that I'm the Son of the Don, and don't know it yet (which, by the nature of the role, is certainly possible). If I don't know it, I certainly can't be deliberately acting in the Mafia's best interests, because if I don't know it yet, they haven't attacked me yet. so why finger me as the Don's Son without, by your own admission, analysis of the day's events?

[SnDvls]

vote jeff


I'd like to stick to bearcat, but looks like we'll get him tomorrow.

[Schmidty]

Just makes no sense, thats why ALL of you are mafia, you, Sack, Blade, and Jeff.

You seem so sure of yourself, but you are so horribly wrong.

First off, as I said before, I voted Shorty because of my gut feeling. As most people in WW know, I have been extremely busy the past few weeks. I'm with my daughter all day, and then my wife comes home in the evening, and then I go to work at night. I leave FOFC up, but I don't have much to to read everything. I have a lot of hobbies and such to cram into the hour or two I get everyday to myself. Frankly, I didn't know about this Blade/Shorty connection until you mentioned it and I looked back.

Once again, I'm not mafia, and the fact that you are scapegoating 4 people without much/any evidence makes it look like you're trying to draw attention from yourself and Shorty.

[dubb93]

Jeff(5): Fouts, Illinifan999, Shorty 3281, Dubb93, SnDvls
Shorty(2): Sackattack, Jeff061, ****Schmidty voted and then unvoted
Ardent(1): Blade6119
Dubb93(1): Schmidty
Blade6119(1): Bearcat, ***Illinifan999 voted and then unvoted

[Schmidty]

FWIW, the other 3 people you lumped me in with may very well be mafia, I have no idea, and I'm not going to pretend to (like you seem to be).

[dubb93]

Let's even say that I'm the Son of the Don, and don't know it yet (which, by the nature of the role, is certainly possible). If I don't know it, I certainly can't be deliberately acting in the Mafia's best interests, because if I don't know it yet, they haven't attacked me yet. so why finger me as the Don's Son without, by your own admission, analysis of the day's events?

I have analyzied the days events, just didn't go back through the whole thing and write down everything everyone has done. I had intended to, but then you guys came out and gave yourselves up. :D

If I'm wrong about you guys lynch me tomorrow, makes no difference to me, hell lynch me 2nite, I just know I fingered out the 4 mafia. Blade isn't a seer, lets get real, if he is he isn't good. He tried to act like he was when he know all of ours were dead but it failed. Now you realize its failed, and are going to have to sacrifice him, and it would make sense to do it now, but when you kill shorty and he's proven to be innocent you are going to use faulty logic to claim blade must be innocent too. You hadn't counted on me pointing out what I did about your vote, jeff's vote and schmidty's vote. You guys all decided to go out today and thought you could railroad an innocent and not draw attention to yourselfs, but it backfired.

[jeff061]

I'm glad you aren't lazy and really want to get to the bottom of this.. oh wait. "Hopefully bandwagon votes will come! Who cares if we lynch another villager! Atleast it's not my ass!"

I think you misread what I said. I meant stem one against me, not for you.

I'm going over everything now.

[dubb93]

FWIW, the other 3 people you lumped me in with may very well be mafia, I have no idea, and I'm not going to pretend to (like you seem to be).

I could be wrong, people have been wrong before, BUT I REALLY DON'T THINK I AM. Lets be real, the villagers are getting fuckin PWN'ed here and someone has to step up and be a leader and use the evidence to point fingers at people. You can take what I've said how you want, and if you are innocent I'm sorry, but I don't really think you are. If we had just set here and played the vote Shorty game to "clear" Blade I have a feeling that we would have just been falling into another mafia trap. I may be sticking my head out there, but it is better to die trying then to set back, make it to the end and get over ran by mafia.

[jeff061]

Jeff is trying to railroad people so let me try again...

I am? I am try to throw out facts and let people decide for themselves. I'm not yelling at people to vote Shorty. I'm not yelling at people not to vote Blade. I am laying out my thoughts for it.

Just show me one spot where i am railroading. Be careful what you say, hyperbole wil get you in trouble should my role(villager) be found out tonight.

Dubb you are throwing suspicion at anyone and everyone. Everyday it's a different set of three people.

[jeff061]

And Shorty, much like Fouts, is only voting in retaliation. Not the best way to play the game.

[jeff061]

I think this is the first time I've ever had more than two votes cast my way in a WW game :). I'm better at avoiding them when I'm nasty guy. Indeed, it's frustrating.

[dubb93]

Dubb you are throwing suspicion at anyone and everyone. Everyday it's a different set of three people.

Thats the only way I know how to play the game.
;) But I'm pretty confident at the group of 4 I have labeled now.

[jeff061]

Maybe you have a %75 lock, but if you rally people on me your confidence is going to take a hit.

I still think everything you said about me is a lie/bull shit. Shorty's pissed at me for voting on him and being mean to Real. Fouts is going on the fact that a seer voted on me, which is the only thing against and is still far from solid.

[dubb93]

I'm going out to eat, be back before the deadline(hopefully), I just hope all the villagers get on here, weed out the mafia lies and see that what I'm saying makes sense, and is the truth. If not you can't see that, then vote me, simple as that.

[dubb93]

Maybe you have a %75 lock, but if you rally people on me your confidence is going to take a hit.

I still think everything you said about me is a lie/bull shit. Shorty's pissed at me for voting on him and being mean to Real. Fouts is going on the fact that a seer voted on me, which is the only thing against and is still far from solid.

I didn't rally them around you, I named who I believe are the 4 mafia, they voted and I followed suit. Makes no sense for me to believe you are mafia, let 4 villagers vote u, and then me vote someone else on my list. The villagers need to rally together and weed out the mafia.

[jeff061]

If not you can't see that, then vote me, simple as that

It's thinking like that which will keep us in this retarded downward spiral, everyone voting on each other for revenge and black and white nonsense reasons. I am a villager. I suggest you, Dubb, come up with an alternate line of thinking that doesn't end in your own death.

Be careful though, thinking gets you lynched.

And no that's not a "mafia 'I give up'" trick. Maybe next time I'll be bad and survive the whole game :).

[jeff061]

Just makes no sense, thats why ALL of you are mafia, you, Sack, Blade, and Jeff.

Can I get a summary on this? Your line of thought seems to be absent, yet people are still piling on.

[SackAttack]

I had intended to, but then you guys came out and gave yourselves up. :D

You must have better eyesight than me, because I've looked at it seven ways from Sunday, and don't see any examples of anybody "giving themselves up."

[SnDvls]

unvote jeff

vote bearcat

I was hasty in my voting. After rereading the posts and "evidence" jeff doesn't look so bad. I think some of the people mentioned by dubb do though. I can't honestly vote for someone I think/feel is on our side so I have to throw my vote back to my origian gut feeling.