Katrina hits Category 5.

[Eaglesfan27]

to avoid Katrina which seems to be heading very close to New Orleans. Right now, they are predicting it is going to be a Category 4 Hurricane and that it is going to head right towards New Orleans. My mother-in-law who is a certifiable weather phobic just called me and woke me up so I can check the 10:00 update with her which will be happening in a few minutes.

If the track stays the same, we'll have to decide on whether to evacuate or not soon. Mayor Nagin was just on TV and said the state will likely call for mandatory evacuations of the New Orleans area later this evening or tomorrow morning. Last time it took us about 18 hours just to get to Houston :(. Complicating things is my wife's grandparents who don't want to leave. They say the last one missed us, and they aren't going through the hassle of evacuating again.

If it does hit the city, I hate to see what is going to happen to this giant bowl of a city.

[Ksyrup]

This is like the 4th hurricane in the past year to have been headed straight for Tallahassee at one point, only to slip off to the west. Good luck.

[capsicum]

wow, that sucks. Sure hope it turns and weakens, and if it dosent that your wifes grandparents change theyre mind and head to dryer safer ground, even if for no other reason to save the misery of worrying about your loved ones. I pray that this storm will cause little to no damage and head on out back over water until she peters out. Stay Safe and drive carefully if it becomes necessary for you to leave.

[Eaglesfan27]

Sheesh. I just went to top off my tank (I'm only down a gallon or two) but there were over 100 cars in line at each of my 3 local gas stations. Also, gas prices seemed suspiciously higher than they did 2 days ago.

[Flasch186]

go now!! why not...a little mini vaca if it doesnt hi you and if it oes hit you, you were gone and safe.

[Eaglesfan27]

go now!! why not...a little mini vaca if it doesnt hi you and if it oes hit you, you were gone and safe.

Because neither my work nor Mrs. Eaglesfan's work will let us leave unless there are mandatory evacuations. They are delaying making that call until either this afternoon or perhaps as late as tomorrow morning :(

[HomerJSimpson]

Because neither my work nor Mrs. Eaglesfan's work will let us leave unless there are mandatory evacuations. They are delaying making that call until either this afternoon or perhaps as late as tomorrow morning :(


Well, do either of you have to work tommorow? Go and get a hotel room tonight, and you can always drive back tommorow afternoon if there is no evac. Your still going to get a jump on some. I imagine traffic after the announcement will be much worse than it is now.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Let us not forget last year's warning....

Direct hit by Ivan could submerge New Orleans tree-top deep

NEW ORLEANS — The worst-case scenario for New Orleans — a direct strike by a full-strength Hurricane Ivan — could submerge much of this historic city treetop-deep in a stew of sewage, industrial chemicals and fire ants, and the inundation could last for weeks, experts say.

If the storm were strong enough, Ivan could drive water over the tops of the levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River and vast Lake Pontchartrain. And with the city sitting in a saucer-shaped depression that dips as much as 9 feet below sea level, there would be nowhere for all that water to drain.

<!--endclickprintinclude--><table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="175"><tbody><tr><td>
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/B/01/95/88/image_888951.jpg (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/39989167_norout0915.html)
Alex Brandon/Times-Picayune

(ENLARGE) (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/39989167_norout0915.html)
</td></tr><tr><td class="caption">Traffic on the Interstate10 is bumper to bumper as evacuees head away from New Orleans to escape Hurricane Ivan.
</td></tr><tr><td><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="170"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc" width="170"><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0" width="168"> <tbody><tr> <td width="148">http://img.coxnewsweb.com/C/08/26/62/image_262268.gifEMAIL THIS (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/15ivannorleans.html#)
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/C/03/27/62/image_262273.gifPRINT THIS (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/15ivannorleans.html#)
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/C/04/27/62/image_262274.gifMOST POPULAR (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/15ivannorleans.html#)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td><td width="5">http://www.ajc.com/shared-local/images/1pix_trans.gif</td></tr></tbody></table><!--startclickprintinclude--> Even in the best of times, New Orleans depends on a network of canals and huge pumps to keep water from accumulating inside the basin.

"Those folks who remain, should the city flood, would be exposed to all kinds of nightmares from buildings falling apart to floating in the water having nowhere to go," Ivor van Heerden, director of Louisiana State University's Hurricane Public Health Center, said Tuesday.

LSU's hurricane experts have spent years developing computer models and taking surveys to predict what might happen.

The surveys predict that about 300,000 of the 1.6 million people living in the metropolitan area would risk staying.

The computer models show a hurricane with a wind speed of around 120 mph or more — hitting just west of New Orleans so its counterclockwise rotation could hurl the strongest surf and wind directly into the city — would push a storm surge from the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain over the city's levees. Ivan had sustained wind of 140 mph Tuesday.

New Orleans would be under about 20 feet of water, higher than the roofs of many of the city's homes.

Besides collecting standard household and business garbage and chemicals, the flood would flow through chemical plants in the area, "so there's the potential of pretty severe contamination," van Heerden said.

Severe flooding in area bayous also forces out wildlife, including poisonous snakes and stinging fire ants, which sometimes gather in floating balls carried by the current.

A rescue of people who stayed behind would be among the world's biggest since 1940, when Allied forces and civilian volunteers during World War II rescued mostly British soldiers from Dunkirk, France, and carried them across the English Channel, van Heerden predicted.

Much of the city would be under water for weeks. And even after the river and Lake Pontchartrain receded, the levees could trap water above sea level, meaning the Army Corps of Engineers would have to cut the levees to let the water out.

"The real big problem is the water from sea level on down because it will have to be pumped and restoring the pumps and getting them back into action could take a considerable amount of time," said John Hall, the Corps' spokesman in New Orleans.

Hall spoke from his home — 6 feet below sea level — as he prepared to flee the city himself. The Corps' local staff was being relocated 166 miles north to Vicksburg, Miss.

New Orleans was on the far western edge of the Gulf Coast region threatened by Ivan, and forecasters said Tuesday that the hurricane appeared to moving toward a track farther east, along the Mississippi coast.

If the eye came ashore east of the city, van Heerden said, New Orleans would be on the low side of the storm surge and would not likely have catastrophic flooding.

The worst storm in recent decades to hit New Orleans was Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which submerged parts of the city in water 7-feet deep and was blamed for 74 deaths in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. That storm was a Category 3, weaker than Ivan is expected to be.

Even if New Orleans escapes this time, van Heerden said, it will remain vulnerable until the federal and state governments act to restore the coastal wetlands that should act as a buffer against storms coming in from the Gulf.

Louisiana has lost about a half million acres of coast to erosion since 1930 because the Mississippi River is so corralled by levees that it can dump sediment only at its mouth, and that allows waves from the Gulf to chop away at the rest of the coastline.

"My fear is, if this storm passes (without a major disaster), everybody forgets about it until next year, when it could be even worse because we'll have even less wetlands," van Heerden said.

[Tigercat]

Luckily it looks like the Hurricane will go somewhere east of the city instead of just west and up the river, which is the doomsday scenario. (One of two worst case natural disaster scenarios already planned out by the federal government alongside another San Francisco great earthquake.)

The thing to worry about for people outside of New Orleans and Southern Louisiana is the number of oil refineries in SE Louisiana. A hurricane hitting in the right spot could also shut down at least 4 major refineries for at least a week.

[Eaglesfan27]

Well, do either of you have to work tommorow? Go and get a hotel room tonight, and you can always drive back tommorow afternoon if there is no evac. Your still going to get a jump on some. I imagine traffic after the announcement will be much worse than it is now.Mrs. Eaglesfan is supposed to be at work by 3:00 PM today if there is no mandatory evacuation order. I have a job that requires me to go to a local hospital for about 20-30 minutes every single day. However, we just booked a room for ourselves and my mother-in-law and her 2 teenagers. Unfortunately, the closest room (that takes pets) we could find in a "safe" place was Little Rock, AR. We are prepared to leave VERY early tomorrow morning (and hopefully avoid some of the traffic.)

Specifically, we are planning on leaving about 4:00 AM if we are leaving.

[Eaglesfan27]

Little Rock and safe? That is an oxymoron. :)
:D

Actually, just about anywhere is more safe than New Orleans. I'm not talking about just the hurricanes :( Our murder rate has been ridiculous this year.

[GoldenEagle]

Luckily it looks like the Hurricane will go somewhere east of the city instead of just west and up the river, which is the doomsday scenario. (One of two worst case natural disaster scenarios already planned out by the federal government alongside another San Francisco great earthquake.)
I have never heard that before. I could see why though. It would cause all sorts of problems. It will happen sometime down the road I am sure. These hurricanes are nuts.

[GoldenEagle]

:D

Actually, just about anywhere is more safe than New Orleans. I'm not talking about just the hurricanes :( Our murder rate has been ridiculous this year.
What part of Little Rock is your hotel in?

[Eaglesfan27]

The hotel is in the "Medical Center Area" on Fair Park Blvd.

[Lathum]

Good luck Eaglesfan, You'll be in my thoughts.

[Eaglesfan27]

Good luck Eaglesfan, You'll be in my thoughts.

Thanks. Right now, we are just getting prepared to leave if needed.

[Young Drachma]

Let us not forget last year's warning....

Direct hit by Ivan could submerge New Orleans tree-top deep

NEW ORLEANS — The worst-case scenario for New Orleans — a direct strike by a full-strength Hurricane Ivan — could submerge much of this historic city treetop-deep in a stew of sewage, industrial chemicals and fire ants, and the inundation could last for weeks, experts say.

If the storm were strong enough, Ivan could drive water over the tops of the levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River and vast Lake Pontchartrain. And with the city sitting in a saucer-shaped depression that dips as much as 9 feet below sea level, there would be nowhere for all that water to drain.

<!--endclickprintinclude--><table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="175"><tbody><tr><td>
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/B/01/95/88/image_888951.jpg (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/39989167_norout0915.html)
Alex Brandon/Times-Picayune

(ENLARGE) (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/39989167_norout0915.html)
</td></tr><tr><td class="caption">Traffic on the Interstate10 is bumper to bumper as evacuees head away from New Orleans to escape Hurricane Ivan.
</td></tr><tr><td><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="170"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" bgcolor="#cccccc" width="170"><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0" width="168"> <tbody><tr> <td width="148">http://img.coxnewsweb.com/C/08/26/62/image_262268.gifEMAIL THIS (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/15ivannorleans.html#)
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/C/03/27/62/image_262273.gifPRINT THIS (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/15ivannorleans.html#)
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/C/04/27/62/image_262274.gifMOST POPULAR (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/breaking/ivan/15ivannorleans.html#)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td><td width="5">http://www.ajc.com/shared-local/images/1pix_trans.gif</td></tr></tbody></table><!--startclickprintinclude--> Even in the best of times, New Orleans depends on a network of canals and huge pumps to keep water from accumulating inside the basin.

"Those folks who remain, should the city flood, would be exposed to all kinds of nightmares from buildings falling apart to floating in the water having nowhere to go," Ivor van Heerden, director of Louisiana State University's Hurricane Public Health Center, said Tuesday.

LSU's hurricane experts have spent years developing computer models and taking surveys to predict what might happen.

The surveys predict that about 300,000 of the 1.6 million people living in the metropolitan area would risk staying.

The computer models show a hurricane with a wind speed of around 120 mph or more — hitting just west of New Orleans so its counterclockwise rotation could hurl the strongest surf and wind directly into the city — would push a storm surge from the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain over the city's levees. Ivan had sustained wind of 140 mph Tuesday.

New Orleans would be under about 20 feet of water, higher than the roofs of many of the city's homes.

Besides collecting standard household and business garbage and chemicals, the flood would flow through chemical plants in the area, "so there's the potential of pretty severe contamination," van Heerden said.

Severe flooding in area bayous also forces out wildlife, including poisonous snakes and stinging fire ants, which sometimes gather in floating balls carried by the current.

A rescue of people who stayed behind would be among the world's biggest since 1940, when Allied forces and civilian volunteers during World War II rescued mostly British soldiers from Dunkirk, France, and carried them across the English Channel, van Heerden predicted.

Much of the city would be under water for weeks. And even after the river and Lake Pontchartrain receded, the levees could trap water above sea level, meaning the Army Corps of Engineers would have to cut the levees to let the water out.

"The real big problem is the water from sea level on down because it will have to be pumped and restoring the pumps and getting them back into action could take a considerable amount of time," said John Hall, the Corps' spokesman in New Orleans.

Hall spoke from his home — 6 feet below sea level — as he prepared to flee the city himself. The Corps' local staff was being relocated 166 miles north to Vicksburg, Miss.

New Orleans was on the far western edge of the Gulf Coast region threatened by Ivan, and forecasters said Tuesday that the hurricane appeared to moving toward a track farther east, along the Mississippi coast.

If the eye came ashore east of the city, van Heerden said, New Orleans would be on the low side of the storm surge and would not likely have catastrophic flooding.

The worst storm in recent decades to hit New Orleans was Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which submerged parts of the city in water 7-feet deep and was blamed for 74 deaths in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. That storm was a Category 3, weaker than Ivan is expected to be.

Even if New Orleans escapes this time, van Heerden said, it will remain vulnerable until the federal and state governments act to restore the coastal wetlands that should act as a buffer against storms coming in from the Gulf.

Louisiana has lost about a half million acres of coast to erosion since 1930 because the Mississippi River is so corralled by levees that it can dump sediment only at its mouth, and that allows waves from the Gulf to chop away at the rest of the coastline.

"My fear is, if this storm passes (without a major disaster), everybody forgets about it until next year, when it could be even worse because we'll have even less wetlands," van Heerden said.


Gosh.

[Eaglesfan27]

According to noaa and the national weather service, the hurricane track has shifted slightly west. The chance that it might go slightly west of the city has convinced me that it is definitely necessary to leave as that could lead to the worst case scenario described above. Also, some models suggest that it might reach a category 5 in intensity. Others suggest that it will remain a category 3, but I'm not taking any chances.

Mrs. Eaglesfan went to work today, and I'm going to do that daily job today, but I'm calling my boss in a few minutes and letting him know that I'm evacuating unless there is a drastic shift in the track by the 10 PM update tonight. Mrs. Eaglesfan is telling her boss that she won't be in tomorrow (or potentially for the next few days.)

Another factor pushing me to leave is that a friend of mine is a police officer. He told me that Mayor Nagin has told all of the officers to evacuate their families today.

[HomerJSimpson]

According to noaa and the national weather service, the hurricane track has shifted slightly west. The chance that it might go slightly west of the city has convinced me that it is definitely necessary to leave as that could lead to the worst case scenario described above. Also, some models suggest that it might reach a category 5 in intensity. Others suggest that it will remain a category 3, but I'm not taking any chances.

Mrs. Eaglesfan went to work today, and I'm going to do that daily job today, but I'm calling my boss in a few minutes and letting him know that I'm evacuating unless there is a drastic shift in the track by the 10 PM update tonight. Mrs. Eaglesfan is telling her boss that she won't be in tomorrow (or potentially for the next few days.)

Another factor pushing me to leave is that a friend of mine is a police officer. He told me that Mayor Nagin has told all of the officers to evacuate their families today.


Sadly, it is too late to miss the traffic, as I've seen the picks of people leaving, and it is already bumper to bumper. They should be shutting down the in-bound lanes soon, so all lanes will be outbound in the next couple of hours.

[duckman]

I hope you make it out of there okay, EF. Keep us updated!

[terpkristin]

Hmm. This is mildly distressing. My brother lives in New Orleans and isn't exactly of the type that would "be careful"...... :( ?

/tk

[Doug5984]

I'm about 2 hours west of New Orleans- and people around here are even starting to think about evacuating. The latest update I have seen has it going right over New Orleans, this could be bad- thankfully all my friends got out or are on their way home right now. :(

[Eaglesfan27]

Tk, I hope your brother ends up being ok.

My mother-in-law is already driving me crazy and we are just discussing plans right now.

My boss was very cool with me evacuating as he is evacuating too.


Hopefully, Mrs. Eaglesfan's boss will be as cool, but if not... oh well. We are definitely leaving tonight/tomorrow morning.

As far as traffic, the contraflow (sp?) is working now, and traffic is flowing nicely at times. However, I realize we may hit heavy traffic even at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

I'll try to update you all. Hopefully, the hotel will have internet access.

[FrogMan]

doc, got you and yours in my thoughts.

Same goes for your brother, tk.

FM

[Lathum]

EF, I was gonna ask you about internet access. Please be safe and remember you can replace possesions, you can't replace family

[jackyl]

Good luck, EF. Get you and yours the hell away from there.

[terpkristin]

Well, we just heard from my brother. He's planning on evacuating to visit friends in Austin, TX, but seems at the moment that he has no idea when he's going to leave (we're hoping sooner rather than later). He said that the roads are kind of crazy right now, with everybody trying to get out. He lives in the "lower bywater" area of New Orleans, which I'm not sure what that means, but so far their evacuations are only "recommended" though everybody seems to be getting out. I'm glad we heard from him (granted we had to call him and wait for him to call us back).

Doc, Doug, anybody else in that area (or area-ish), I'll be thinking about you getting out safely and coming back safely, and not much damage, same as I am for my brother.

/tk

[Buccaneer]

I'm about 2 hours west of New Orleans- and people around here are even starting to think about evacuating. The latest update I have seen has it going right over New Orleans, this could be bad- thankfully all my friends got out or are on their way home right now. :(
I pray that it doesn't or if it does hit, it would be like the one recently that greatly lost its strength before coming onshore.

[Eaglesfan27]

EF, I was gonna ask you about internet access. Please be safe and remember you can replace possesions, you can't replace family
I completely agree. I'm leaving behind some costly possessions so that we can fit my mother-in-law, brother-in-law, and sister-in-law in our two cars. I'm not too concerned about the possessions. They will eventually be replaced if they get destroyed.

[GoldenEagle]

Make sure you don't forget the cats!

[Eaglesfan27]

Make sure you don't forget the cats!Not a chance :)

However, my sister-in-law is allergic to cats which made some interesting decisions in fitting every one and every pet's carrier in the cars. However, we've figured it out. Besides our two cats in one car, their two dogs will be traveling in the other car (fortunately they are both small dogs in small carriers.)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Thoughts & prayers for you EF, and your family, and anybody else down there I'm missing right now

Ya'll just get gone & we'll see you all back here when that bitch Katrina has left town.

[Pumpy Tudors]

You know, I don't really keep up with the news much, and I don't even know what the weather forecast is for Greensburg most of the time. I had no idea that this storm was headed toward New Orleans until this evening. The only time I even heard "Hurricane Katrina" before that was during the Jags-Falcons game the other night. EF and everyone else in Louisiana, please keep safe. I've only evacuated once in my life, and that was last year for Ivan. I can guarantee that if my wife and I were still in New Orleans, though, we'd be gone for Katrina. It looks really bad.

terpkristin, the lower Bywater area isn't a terribly dangerous area during a storm, but the problem is that there wouldn't be any easy access to the interstate if the storm is very close. The only two ways onto the interstate involve driving through the French Quarter (always a mess) or getting onto one of the busiest on-ramps in the city. Good luck to him and everybody else down there right now.

[Airhog]

Something you might not of thought of, but bring a list of all your stuff, and the serial numbers. If your stuff is destroyed it will make getting it replaced that much easier with your insurance company...

[Buccaneer]

Pumpy, what are you doing in Greensburg?

[DaddyTorgo]

jeezus EF, I hadn't been keeping up with the weather to hear that this bitch was going to be so bad. Safe drive and all the best to you and yours (as well as everyone else in NO of course). I can't imagine the chaos and the sense of fear/panic down there, especially after last year.

[Ragone]

this brings me to a maybe silly question...

Why would people choose to live in a area thats gonna be a constant evacuation/flood/hurricane threat.... besides the obvious family being there..

And please be safe all who are caught in this

[Eaglesfan27]

this brings me to a maybe silly question...

Why would people choose to live in a area thats gonna be a constant evacuation/flood/hurricane threat.... besides the obvious family being there..

And please be safe all who are caught in this
Well, I'm about to go to sleep to get up in 6 hours, but I'll answer this:

My wife is from here. She is happy to be back here. She is still very good friends with two of her best friends from elementary/high school and she is much happier now that we have moved back here. She wasn't happy in NJ at all. Also, from my understanding, storms like this only head towards New Orleans once in a generation if that.

However, I think it is a valid question that I might find myself wondering about even more if the city is severely devastated by this storm.

Thanks for the well-wishes and prayers everyone.

[Buccaneer]

this brings me to a maybe silly question...

Why would people choose to live in a area thats gonna be a constant evacuation/flood/hurricane threat.... besides the obvious family being there..

And please be safe all who are caught in this
Constant? At one locale along the Gulf and Florida, there would be 0-4 hurricanes per year. Many other places have more frequent threats of extreme weather events (tornados, damaging blizzards, ice storms) or you would also wonder why anyone world live on a major fault zone. My in-laws live in S. Florida and even with the 3 hurricanes that hit them last year, the other 95% of the time it's nice.

[JeeberD]

Take care, Doc!

[HomerJSimpson]

It is probably too late for EF to answer, but a question just hit me...what do they do with the people in the mental hospitals in the path of storms like these? Do they evacuate them?

[TargetPractice6]

A friend of my mine just left for UNO a few weeks ago. I'm worried about him.

[Tigercat]

HJS, they do indeed evacuate patients to "sister" hospitals that have been chosen in advance. At least one Mental Health facility I know of in the New Orleans area usually evacuates its patients to Houston. Likewise, if something serious enough was going on in Houston and the travel to New Orleans was possible, they would evacuate patients there.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Pumpy, what are you doing in Greensburg?
I've mentioned on the forum a few times before, but it's understandable that a lot of people missed it. My wife has become an assistant professor at a university up here. It is her first job out of grad school. We arrived here on August 1, and I'm sure that we're going to be here for at least a few years. It's unlikely that we'll ever move back to New Orleans, but I'm slowly adjusting to living somewhere else.

[HomerJSimpson]

HJS, they do indeed evacuate patients to "sister" hospitals that have been chosen in advance. At least one Mental Health facility I know of in the New Orleans area usually evacuates its patients to Houston. Likewise, if something serious enough was going on in Houston and the travel to New Orleans was possible, they would evacuate patients there.


Interesting. It just dawn on me I wonder what happens to them.

[LloydLungs]

As far as traffic, the contraflow (sp?) is working now, and traffic is flowing nicely at times. However, I realize we may hit heavy traffic even at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

Shoot, Eaglesfan, *I* was going to leave at 4:00 AM. Does everybody have this same plan? Might have to bump it up to 3:00. :-)

This is the first time I've evacuated for a hurricane genuinely thinking I might not have a home to come back to. Short of that, I'm at least expecting extensive damage. Whew. I'll tell you what, if this *doesn't* hit New Orleans, they're going to have a big "crying wolf" issue to deal with next time, more so than usual. But, at this point, that sounds like a nice problem to have.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I'm watching the webcast from WWL right now, and this is really the first time in my 28 years that I've seen a newscast so serious about a storm. I don't mean that they're never serious, but everyone is being very blunt and direct about this one. There are constant warnings that southeastern Louisiana will not avoid this storm. This storm is not going to completely miss the area. New Orleans will not be spared miraculously again. It may not be a direct hit, and they make sure to say that they don't know yet, but something is definitely going to happen in New Orleans. It's not a matter of whether the storm will affect the city; it's a matter of how strongly the storm will affect the city. I have never heard a newscast urge everyone to evacuate like this. It's 4am here right now, and I meant to go to bed two hours ago, but I can't stop watching this. I think my family down there has evacuated, but now I'm just watching because New Orleans still feels like home to me. I'm so scared that I can't sleep, and I'm over a thousand miles away. Like I said earlier, I had only evacuated once in my entire life, and to be honest, my wife had to drag me away (she's originally from Memphis, so every nearby hurricane spooked her, since these were new experiences for her). I've never really been scared of a hurricane before. This morning, I am.

Please, everybody down there, leave. Urge your extended family and friends to leave. I know the people on this forum are taking it seriously, but please do everything you can for the people you love. I know that there will be people who just won't go, but maybe hearing from the right people will help them make the right decision. I am really scared for my hometown right now, because many people there don't know how to handle this. They think they know, but they don't know. Too many years and too many storms have led to that "crying wolf" effect that LloydLungs mentioned, but now is not the time to be brave. Now is not the time.

:(

[GoldenEagle]

Let's hope the blunt of the storm hits the Gulf Coast of Mississippi. This is also could very well become a Cat 5 storm. It is going to get stronger, no doubt. I am up the road in Mississippi and if I can do anything for anyone, let me know.

[ScottVib]

The Weather Channel interviewed the mayor of Biloxi and he seems devastated about the storms strength and forecast, mandatory evacuations expected later this morning in the area. They keep reiterating that its a "Camille-type storm".

Winds 160 Mph, pressure 908 mb. Should hit tomorrow, current forecast essentially puts it into New Orleans, meaning Gulfport/Biloxi would be on the most dangerous side of the storm. (As they keep reiterating, this storm will completely change the landscape of the shoreline)

Best wishes and good luck to anyone in the storms path, be safe.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/115900W_sm.gif

[terpkristin]

She's a category 5 now, I hope everybody is out safely or on their way.

Good luck to all, let us know when you get back.

/tk

[Flasch186]

my prayers are wih you!!

get out!!!

[jackyl]

Mandatory evacuation announced by the Mayor.

[Ryche]

Has anyone seen the projections of what a Cat 5 storm could do if it were to hit New Orleans properly? I can't believe they have just now called a mandatory evacuation. I hope no one here is in New Orleans right now.

[Ryche]

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane1.html

An article about the possibilities.

[Lathum]

Damn. I'll be driving through Tennessee on Tuesday-Wednesday :(

[ScottVib]

The Mayor of New Orleans reported that Bush called to ask him to evacuate the city. They are expecting the entire city and levees to be submerged under a 20-25 foot storm surge, 30-40 feet waves on top of that. They are expecting much of Southern Louisiana's electrical distribution system to be decimated (weeks to months to restore power).

And the wind speed estimate has been upped to 175 mph.

Hopefully there is an eyewall regeneration cycle that can moderate the storm a bit prior to landfall (FWIW there is expected to be at least some slight weakening, as hurricanes rarely maintain such a potent wind field, but the current forecast keeps it a Category 5 upon landfall).

[Ksyrup]

If it gained even a couple of miles per hour, it could be the first entry in Category 6 on the S-S scale. Every category is about 21 MPH, and 175 is right at 20 MPH above the 155 for Category 5.

If that thing doesn't start moving NW and then N soon, it will hit NO. I'm not putting muh faith in their projections...too many storms have been predicted to come our way and then end up nowhere near us. They are pretty much reacting to movement after the fact as opposed to predicting anything, IMO. It's only when it comes down to the last 12-24 hours and the storm can't go anywhere but a small area that they really have any idea where it's going.

[Tigercat]

The good news for New Orleans is that the bulk of the projections continue to move to the East since yesturday. New Orleans could be spared the very worst. And this isn't the worst case scenario storm simply because of its angle, the worst case storm works up the the river a little more ending up just west of the lake, forcing water up the river and south out of the lake.

It looks like the Mississipi/LA boarder may get the worst of this sucker. I fear that my grandparents house on the gulf will not survive the storm. (They lost a house in Camille to thanks to the 26 foor surge then.) But at least they got out and are safe.

[Tigercat]

There isn't a 6 on the SS scale, if there was Andrew would have been a 6 and Camille would have been around a 7. And boy do I hope that the projections are correct. If this thing doesn't turn at all this will be worse than Andrew was for Florida.

[Ksyrup]

I still don't see this thing moving off its WNW track. If that track doesn't change at some point in the next 12 hours, a move NW and even N is not going to spare NO. It's just like when it went through South Florida, and they kept projecting the Florida Panhandle. It was still moving W and WSW, making that a virtual impossibility. I knew by Friday morning that thing wasn't coming anywhere near us.

[Lorena]

I'm watching the webcast from WWL right now, and this is really the first time in my 28 years that I've seen a newscast so serious about a storm. I don't mean that they're never serious, but everyone is being very blunt and direct about this one. There are constant warnings that southeastern Louisiana will not avoid this storm. This storm is not going to completely miss the area. New Orleans will not be spared miraculously again. It may not be a direct hit, and they make sure to say that they don't know yet, but something is definitely going to happen in New Orleans. It's not a matter of whether the storm will affect the city; it's a matter of how strongly the storm will affect the city. I have never heard a newscast urge everyone to evacuate like this. It's 4am here right now, and I meant to go to bed two hours ago, but I can't stop watching this. I think my family down there has evacuated, but now I'm just watching because New Orleans still feels like home to me. I'm so scared that I can't sleep, and I'm over a thousand miles away. Like I said earlier, I had only evacuated once in my entire life, and to be honest, my wife had to drag me away (she's originally from Memphis, so every nearby hurricane spooked her, since these were new experiences for her). I've never really been scared of a hurricane before. This morning, I am.

Please, everybody down there, leave. Urge your extended family and friends to leave. I know the people on this forum are taking it seriously, but please do everything you can for the people you love. I know that there will be people who just won't go, but maybe hearing from the right people will help them make the right decision. I am really scared for my hometown right now, because many people there don't know how to handle this. They think they know, but they don't know. Too many years and too many storms have led to that "crying wolf" effect that LloydLungs mentioned, but now is not the time to be brave. Now is not the time.

:(

I felt the anguish in your post Pumpy, hope you slept well.

Everyone in Katrina's path, you'll be in my thoughts and prayers. Best of luck and definitely keep us posted.

[Buccaneer]

Please prepare to send aid and help in anyway you can. Also pray that the levees will hold.

Pumpy: I had missed that, sorry. How are you adjusting to life in the Northeast? Will you be ok once the winter storms start?

[Doug5984]

They have cancelled all classes monday at UL-Lafayette- for them to do that it cant be good. They never call off class, especially this early in advance.

[JeffR]

Holy crap, I've been through a few hurricane watches in Florida but have never seen the National Weather Service put out a bulletin like this:

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz062 (scroll down)

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-
ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-
ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

[Tigercat]

That sounds like a forecaster at the national weather center went off his meds and started having a panic attack. "THEY ARE ALL GOING TO DIE! NOTHING WILL SURVIVE! WE ARE ALL DOOMED!" For God's sake NO is enough inland and this thing will weaken enough right before impact that the city won't experience anything greater than 150MPH winds sustained, maybe not worse than 125. And thats even with a direct hit. Horrible, yes, but not enough to knock down buildings that were built with possible hurricane force winds in mind.

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Umm.. holy crap!! Best wishes for everyone involved.

[Buccaneer]

Forget Iraq and wasteful pork spending projects, let the Federal Govt put our money to where it is most needed.

[bronconick]

Wow.

Good luck guys. http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/frown.gif

[Solecismic]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15

This board is fascinating, though they're certainly more doomsday than most of us are used to, as I would expect from professionals and dedicated amateurs.

Katrina had better make a sharper NNW turn in the next couple of hours, or this is worst possible scenario for New Orleans. I wonder if the Saints have an alternative home site for the first half of this season.

[Tigercat]

There is talk of Saints games in Tiger Stadium if necessary. BR is only an hour and a half away. Tiger Stadium has its own problems right now though, the west upper deck was torn down at the end of last year to build a new upper deck on that side to match the new upper deck that was put on the East last year. The construction has experienced delays, however. And the best case scenario before this hurricane was that MOST of the thousands of people with season tickets in that upper deck would be seated for North Texas and Arizona State, with all seats available by the LSU Tennessee game. Who knows what that timetable becomes when 70-80mph winds hit the construction site. Hopefully Tiger Stadium is useable for LSU at least by the first game of the season.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

If the worst happens then New Orleans as we know it will be completely different.

[ScottVib]

I'm so conflicted... the meteorologist part of me is just fascinated and in awe of the size and scale of the storm, the satellite images showing a textbook hurricane, etc.

On the other hand, the human part of me is simply horrified at the potential for shear destruction that this storm possesses, if it continues on it's current heading.

[Solecismic]

184 mph, pressure down to 902 mb. And much bigger than Camille in 1969. I hope people in low-lying areas aren't dumb enough to think they can ride this one out.

I also hope the National Guard is already being mobilized to bring supplies to shelters. This is just far beyond anything I've ever seen.

[ScottVib]

Was just about to post the same stats Jim. Simply Amazing.

This indicates that the storm is likely still strengthening. If it hit at this pressure it would be the second lowest pressure hurricane to strike the US. (to the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935)

Edit - BTW the 184 mph is the flight level winds. The surface wind speeds will be slightly lower (probably still around 175).

[Ksyrup]

I know this isn't something to joke about, but I found this post over at that site Jim posted to be pretty funny:


"Maybe if we put it in terms southerners can understand more ppl will evacuate....

Hurricane Katrina packing NASCAR speed winds."

[Buccaneer]

If the worst happens then New Orleans as we know it will be completely different.
Much of the charm of New Orleans lies in the older French Quarter as well as St. Charles. They have survived before but I fear that they could lose their authentic historicalness upon rebuilding and renovations.

I do wonder, as a cartographer, how the coastline will look afterwards.

[Airhog]

Thanks for the link up there Solecismic. I enjoyed reading that forum, they seem to know what they are talking about at least...

[sachmo71]

Hopefully, the troops will get everyone out. I'm starting to freak out a little, because when that hurricane was supposed to hit NO last year, my former brother-in-law was going to ride it out. His reasoning for this was because he didn't have homeowners insurance. Good luck holding the roof down, dumbass. Unfortunately, his daughters were going to stay with him to "help" him. :(

[Tigercat]

If y'all will notice, the track continues to inch East on the track at the top, all the computer models seem to be making this gradual shift. I think this sucker will hit hardest in just about the same section of Mississippi as Camille did.

I have personal conflicting emotions about this, it will spare the houses of family members in New Orleans, but I have no doubt that such a hit would destroy my grandparents house. (They lost their first house in Mississippi to Camille's 25 foot tidal surge.) But better property than loss of life.

[ScottVib]

The hotels evacuation now is sending those inside to the 5th floor or higher. - MSNBC

(Hotels were exempted from the evacuation order as tourists were unable to get flights out and there weren't any rental cars left available)

[ScottVib]

Model forecasted wind speed at landfall - 179 mph at Sunrise tomorrow.
The center near New Orleans at around noon.

From the NHC.

[finkenst]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.klix.shtml

[Tigercat]

I'm really cautiously optomistic that this won't be a direct N.O. hit. I think
plaqumines parish will get the first major hit. East New Orleans and Slidell
might be hit significantly too. East New Orleans won't get tons of water
damage, but wind damage could mean some loss of lives; water and wind could
be a problem for Slidell. Then the storm moves up into coastal Mississippi, where
we can only hope that MS residents evacuated from the coast. Tidal Surge
could be as high as 28 feet.

Here are some projection models:

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_model.gif
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

[JonInMiddleGA]

The NWS forecast advisory contains language that I've never seen them use before.
I'm no weather expert by any means, but I spent 13 years reading forecasts a half dozen times a day from NWS & know their routine (and their not-routine) phrasing like the back of my hand. I was pretty worried before, go ahead & upgrade me to OMG. Like someone else said, it looks to me like there's still a chance it'll at least turn enough to avoid a direct hit, but if it doesn't, I think we're looking at destruction like we've never seen here period.

[GoldenEagle]

My sister's fiancée is in the National Guard and he is not sure yet if he is going to get called up. They usually let him out of stuff like this because he is in college and already done a tour in Iraq. We will see though as they may have to have him.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

The hotels evacuation now is sending those inside to the 5th floor or higher. - MSNBC

(Hotels were exempted from the evacuation order as tourists were unable to get flights out and there weren't any rental cars left available)
OMG! Wouldnt that leave them vulnerable to projectiles and such when it hits?

[fantastic flying froggies]

Hope everything turns out all right...

Good luck to everyone down there.

[ScottVib]

The storm is still following the forecasted track taking it into New Orleans. If you notice the majority of the tracks are right on or just to the East of New Orleans. Just to the East is not a good thing either.. as this allows the winds to push water into Lake Ponchitrain. (In fact the worst case would be a storm that hit from the South Southeast, allowing the winds and surge both to come right into the Gulf access for the Mississippi and into Lake Ponchitrain)

This storm is so massive that even if the eye doesn't score a direct hit, the impact will be incredible throughout the area. Looking at the tracks and the models, it looks like landfall in Louisiana, the eye tracking between New Orleans and the Mississippi border.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

I didnt realize how BIG this Hurricane was until I looked at a Natl geographic map and comparing it to the Hurricane. That thing has to be 400 miles across.

[ScottVib]

People are idiots. Listening to the locals on the Fox News channel is frightening. At least this idiot has no clue what is about to happen. He doesn't feel that he's vulnerable in New Orleans, expects it to miss like everyone else. He figures the pumps will work and everything will be ok.

If these people don't leave the death toll will be significant (unnecessarily). All you can do is warn and hope.

[kcchief19]

OMG! Wouldnt that leave them vulnerable to projectiles and such when it hits? I'm sure they will keep them in interior hallways without windows. The biggest threat will be the water and drowning. Better to have them up high and eliminate the most severe threat even if it makes them more vulnerable to some other threats.

The NWS statement is ominous. They pulled out the Charlie warning from last year and it was much less dire although still severe. It certainly could be that they are using the strongest language possible to motivate as many people as possible to leave even if the disaster scenario is remote.

Maybe someone here with more knowledge and understanding can clarify this for me -- thus far, it sounds as though the storm is continuing to push further west before finally heading north, making landfall in New Orleans or slightly west more likely. Is it correct that I understand that the damage is more severe from the eye and to the east than it is to the west of the storm? If so, it's not making the forecast any more cheery for the city.

I hope this thing weakens somehow.

[Mr. Sparkle]

People are idiots. Listening to the locals on the Fox News channel is frightening. At least this idiot has no clue what is about to happen. He doesn't feel that he's vulnerable in New Orleans, expects it to miss like everyone else. He figures the pumps will work and everything will be ok.

If these people don't leave the death toll will be significant (unnecessarily). All you can do is warn and hope.

Seriously. It's ridiculous. My g/f is from Louisiana, about 2 hours from NO, and up until this morning, she was of the same mindset. Luckily, her brother who lives there got out a couple days ago. He's pretty much resigned to the mindset that he's not going to go back to much of anything.

[SunDevil]

I was under the impression that New Orleans was below sea level, and that it was gradually sinking, and in about 100 years that city would be under water. How does this Hurricane not speed up this scenario? And how does New Orleans under that much water 20/25 feet ever get rebuilt?

[Buccaneer]

This is almost like anticipating a major terrorist event - only we know when and where.

[ScottVib]

Maybe someone here with more knowledge and understanding can clarify this for me -- thus far, it sounds as though the storm is continuing to push further west before finally heading north, making landfall in New Orleans or slightly west more likely. Is it correct that I understand that the damage is more severe from the eye and to the east than it is to the west of the storm? If so, it's not making the forecast any more cheery for the city.

I hope this thing weakens somehow.

Actually it's still on the same track. The last few images hint at the expected more northerly jog, which should take it towards New Orleans or just to the East.

The wind does in fact tend to be worse on the eastern side of the storm, this is also the side that tends to have more tornadic activity.

In the case of New Orleans topography, it's actually slightly better for New Orleans if the storm were to come ashore to the west of the city. A westerly jog would force less water up the mouth of the Mississippi and into Lake Ponchitrain, reducing the flooding risk.

However the likely track presently is an area from New Orleans to the east (about to the Mississippi - Louisisana border)


Simply put this storm is massive. At this point it is nearly certain the storm will hit shore as a category 5 (weakest case a very potent Cat. 4). It's almost a certainty that New Orleans on east to Gulfport, Biloxi, Passcagoula, and even Mobile will receive a very significant impact from this storm.

BTW some hotels are trying to keep people a bit lower then the 5th floor, depending on the elevation of the hotel and it's architecture.

[Mustang]

This is almost like anticipating a major terrorist event - only we know when and where.

Good analogy... unfortunately, some are still sticking around.

[ScottVib]

One of the scariest things for me so far was watching the various political officials who would typically be trying to keep their citizens calm, so visibly impacted and scared of this storm.

[Ksyrup]

My sister's fiancée is in the National Guard and he is not sure yet if he is going to get called up. They usually let him out of stuff like this because he is in college and already done a tour in Iraq. We will see though as they may have to have him.
My brother-in-law is a Florida Highway Patrol officer just north of West Palm Beach, and he's been told to get ready to go to LA to assist in the aftermath.

[Cringer]

This is f'ing nuts.

I look at the pictures shown on TV, and they need to be doing a lot more then they are, to get people out of there. Why are most of the pictures I am seeing of the of only one side of the freeway being open? They say all lanes are open for out bound only, but it sure doesn't look like it. If it is just in the New Orleans area then it needs to be drastically expanded to about a 100 miles radius. Screw any inbound traffic.

This is the worst place I can imagine this happening. And all the roads out are some of the last places I would want to get stuck in such a situation. To much damn water, to many damn bridges.

Good luck to everyone. I hope it isn't as bad as it looks. I drive through this area all the time and it is an area I enjoy going through. I hate to see this happen.

[wbatl1]

I was looking at the map Skydog stickyed. When is the projected landfall? It looks really close, but these things don't move too fast, do they?

[ScottVib]

Landfall is expected to be early tomorrow morning. The current forward speed is estimated at 13 mph.

[wbatl1]

Landfall is expected to be early tomorrow morning.

Thanks.

[Ben E Lou]

FWIW, the map above *is* self-updating.

[Buccaneer]

What is bugging about the news coverage (esp. CNN) is that they keep talking about New Orleans and its 485,000 people are ordered to evacuate. The New Orleans Metro Area has a population of over 1,300,000 people. Don't they count?

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

People are idiots. Listening to the locals on the Fox News channel is frightening. At least this idiot has no clue what is about to happen. He doesn't feel that he's vulnerable in New Orleans, expects it to miss like everyone else. He figures the pumps will work and everything will be ok.

If these people don't leave the death toll will be significant (unnecessarily). All you can do is warn and hope..
Saw it as well and with the number of fools watching Fox news these days.... :(

[ScottVib]

Even worse, more and more people seem to be gathering at the bars to party. It's aggrevating to see. Direct quote. Shep Smith to people just walking their dogs: Why are you guys still here? Person: None of your fucking business.

Another guy what are you going to do tonight? I'm going out for dinner and I'm going to watch a movie.

[ScottVib]

5pm Eastern Advisory:

902 MB
165 MPH Winds
NW at 13 MPH
150 Miles South of the Mississippi

Still on track for New Orleans.

[HomerJSimpson]

5pm Eastern Advisory:

902 MB
165 MPH Winds
NW at 13 MPH
150 Miles South of the Mississippi

Still on track for New Orleans.


Wind speeds dropped, but the same pressure?

[ScottVib]

Scary thought: New Orleans evacuation plan is a 72 hour plan.

The mayor went to be Friday night thinking it was a "Florida storm".
Woke up Saturday to a whole new issue....

Mandatory order was issued this morning.

[bronconick]

Wind speeds dropped, but the same pressure?
I thought the update with the 175 winds was 906 mb?

[Ksyrup]

5pm EST, 165 MPH and 902 MB.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Even worse, more and more people seem to be gathering at the bars to party. It's aggrevating to see. Direct quote. Shep Smith to people just walking their dogs: Why are you guys still here? Person: None of your fucking business.

Another guy what are you going to do tonight? I'm going out for dinner and I'm going to watch a movie.
Needless to say there will be alot of uneccessary deaths due to stupidity.

[HomerJSimpson]

I thought the update with the 175 winds was 906 mb?

No, what Scottvib posted is what they just said on CNN. 902mb and 165 mph.

[GoldenEagle]

So they dropped 10 MPH? Does this mean it will continue to weaken?

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

The pressure is still the same though, and the waters are mighty warm.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Dola: Arent there alot of Offshore Oil Rigs and Refineries in and around the projected path of destruction?

[bronconick]

No, what Scottvib posted is what they just said on CNN. 902mb and 165 mph.
Oh, I meant the 2pm update that it replaced- ie, the winds dropped but pressure dropped as well.

[ScottVib]

Wind speeds dropped, but the same pressure?
This isn't unusual, it typically takes a little while for the wind speed to respond to a stronger circulation center. (Additionally the wind speed is a function of the pressure gradient, so if the gradient is not as tight, even if the pressure is lower the winds won't pick up)

Looking at the radar there was a brief warming of the cloud tops (typically would signify a slight weakening of the system) earlier this afternoon, but that trend seems to have reversed itself.

It would actually be very unusual for a hurricane to maintain such strength for a long time, there will be some fluxuations in the wind speed prior to landfall and it is very possible (the earlier forecasts called for it) to have some minor weakening prior to landfall. But it still is expected for the landfall to occur with Katrina still a Category 5 or best case, a very strong Cat. 4 storm. Either way the impact would/will be devastating.

[Buccaneer]

Even worse, more and more people seem to be gathering at the bars to party. It's aggrevating to see. Direct quote. Shep Smith to people just walking their dogs: Why are you guys still here? Person: None of your fucking business.

Another guy what are you going to do tonight? I'm going out for dinner and I'm going to watch a movie.
That's the good thing about civil liberties. The govt can adequately warn, prepare and supply aid but they cannot force, unless a law is broken. Personal responsibilities - until the lawyers get involved.

Now who is going to force the weather channel numbnuts, esp. that bitch standing in Gulf Shores, to leave or are they going to keep showing these "reporters" telling us how windy it is?

[Pumpy Tudors]

That sounds like a forecaster at the national weather center went off his meds and started having a panic attack. "THEY ARE ALL GOING TO DIE! NOTHING WILL SURVIVE! WE ARE ALL DOOMED!" For God's sake NO is enough inland and this thing will weaken enough right before impact that the city won't experience anything greater than 150MPH winds sustained, maybe not worse than 125. And thats even with a direct hit. Horrible, yes, but not enough to knock down buildings that were built with possible hurricane force winds in mind.
Please remember that the only thing between New Orleans and the Gulf of Mexico is low-lying, eroding swampland. Expecting that land to break up Katrina is like asking a toddler to tackle Jamal Lewis.

For Buccaneer: I'm adjusting to the Northeast just fine so far, but I haven't been here long yet. I was here in February for my wife's job interview, and I got to experience sustained sub-freezing temperatures. It wasn't so bad. Now, I don't really know how the hell to shovel snow, but I'll learn it pretty quickly!

[Buccaneer]

Dola: Arent there alot of Offshore Oil Rigs and Refineries in and around the projected path of destruction?
Don't be surprised to see a spike to $4/gallon.

[ScottVib]

BTW the forecast track shifted so that the eye would be forecasted to go right over New Orleans and would have landfall occur a bit earlier (4-5 am).

[ScottVib]

That's the good thing about civil liberties. The govt can adequately warn, prepare and supply aid but they cannot force, unless a law is broken. Personal responsibilities - until the lawyers get involved.

Now who is going to force the weather channel numbnuts, esp. that bitch standing in Gulf Shores, to leave or are they going to keep showing these "reporters" telling us how windy it is?

In New Orleans the media was exempted from the evacuation order so that they could continue to disseminate information to the public.

With respect to the Weather Channel, they are pulling their reporters back a bit. Jim Cantore's group have been moved to Gulf Shore Civic Center in Mississippi, where they will end up putting all their equipment. The staff will all be on the second floor inclosed in concrete.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

FOX NEWS: It's too late to leave N.O. Bridges closed.

[ScottVib]

BTW they are closing the bridges to New Orleans now. More or less if you haven't gotten out yet, it's too late.

Good luck to everyone left/who is staying in New Orleans.

[HomerJSimpson]

Some, how deep in my heart, I believe that what generally happens in this kind of mass hysteria will prove to be true: it will end up being much less than expected. I know that is very wishfull thinking, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next few hours the whole storm starts falling apart, or that it stops and suddenly turns even further west, or something else happens that weakens the damage significantly.

[Ben E Lou]

Should I combine this thread with the "Katrina hits Category 5" thread?

[Buccaneer]

BTW they are closing the bridges to New Orleans now. More or less if you haven't gotten out yet, it's too late.

Good luck to everyone left/who is staying in New Orleans.
Why close the bridges now?

[ScottVib]

Some, how deep in my heart, I believe that what generally happens in this kind of mass hysteria will prove to be true: it will end up being much less than expected. I know that is very wishfull thinking, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next few hours the whole storm starts falling apart, or that it stops and suddenly turns even further west, or something else happens that weakens the damage significantly.
I hope you are right, but right now every indication is that this is not the case.

[ScottVib]

Why close the bridges now?
Don't know but that's what was reported.

Edit - My guess, and purely my guess, is that they closed them with the first rain band coming in (which just hit New Orleans).

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Why close the bridges now?
Apparently te winds are getting too gusty. Are there estimates of how many ae trapped in N.O., AND is The Superdome in a higher elevation as compared to the French Quarters?

[Buccaneer]

Some, how deep in my heart, I believe that what generally happens in this kind of mass hysteria will prove to be true: it will end up being much less than expected. I know that is very wishfull thinking, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next few hours the whole storm starts falling apart, or that it stops and suddenly turns even further west, or something else happens that weakens the damage significantly.
Didn't that happen last year (or earlier this year) with one of the hurricanes?

[HomerJSimpson]

I hope you are right, but right now every indication is that this is not the case.


I know, I'm just hoping/praying past experience will bear out.

[HomerJSimpson]

Didn't that happen last year (or earlier this year) with one of the hurricanes?


Charlie.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Two comments from me:

1. We New Orleanians generally consider our city to have only half a million people. We just don't count the additional areas that are included in the metro area (Metairie, Kenner, Harahan, St. Bernard Parish). I'm new to Greensburg, but there don't really seem to be any major cultural differences between people in Greensburg and people in Jeannette (5 miles away) and the people in Irwin (8 miles away). New Orleans is completely different. Adjacent cities and areas have completely different personalities and practically different cultures. To me, New Orleans has x number of people, Kenner has y number of people, Harahan has z number of people, etc. I don't really know if the media understand that, but when they say that New Orleans only has 485,000 people, it makes sense to me.

2. Also, regarding the "contra-flow" system, the cameras I've seen have shown the interstate between Causeway Blvd. and Clearview Blvd. This is a 4- or 5-mile stretch of interstate with no entrances or exits in between. You really can't get people onto the other lanes right there. You have to do it at the points that actually lead out of the city, and that's what contra-flow is designed to do. The point is pretty much moot now, though, because they have to get the police officers who are monitoring the interstate out of the area. At any minute now, New Orleans will be completely shut down.

[Ben E Lou]

What part of Louisiana is Dutch in?

[Pumpy Tudors]

Should I combine this thread with the "Katrina hits Category 5" thread?
Works for me.

[Pumpy Tudors]

What part of Louisiana is Dutch in?
I don't know for sure, but I think he's in northwestern Louisiana. I hope I'm right, because that's expected to be a safe spot.

[Doug5984]

What part of Louisiana is Dutch in?


If I remember correctly I think he is in Shreveport...

Also- we are starting to get some bad weather here in Lafayette already.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

My GOD! That's alot of people in line to get in the Superdome.

[TredWel]

Want to know how serious this is? I haven't heard one reference to "Katrina and the Waves".

Good luck to everybody involved - I'm pulling for you.

[Ben E Lou]

(Threads merged.)

[Galaril]

Good bless all you FOFC board members, your families and all the people in the path of this beast. Having been an Air Force meteorologist for 6 years and done my undergrad in the field I can say I haven't seen an eye that defined and or a wall cloud that huge.

[Doug5984]

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad


a live news feed from WWLTV out of new orleans, a good source of local news.

[ScottVib]

BTW for those interested Tropical Depression 13 formed today in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression 14 may not be far behind.

[Noop]

Wow this is crazy. The other night my area got a direct hit from Katrina although it was not as strong as what is coming toward N.O. and M.S. direction.

[Noop]

BTW for those interested Tropical Depression 13 formed today in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression 14 may not be far behind.

:(

[Dutch]

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad


a live news feed from WWLTV out of new orleans, a good source of local news.

Thanks for the link.

[ScottVib]

Curfew coming at 6pm in New Orleans, also is the last pickup for the Rescue Centers.

[Ben E Lou]

Is this the mayor speaking on the WWL link now?

[vtbub]

Is this the mayor speaking on the WWL link now?

Yep. Riveting stuff.

[ScottVib]

Is this the mayor speaking on the WWL link now?
Yes.

[kcchief19]

Yep.

[Ben E Lou]

Yep. Riveting stuff.It really is. He's really being straightforward and honest.

[Rizon]

A few questions:

1) What causes the hurricane predictions to make it curve back east, and not follow the path of Rizon's blue arrow here?

http://home.comcast.net/~rizon1976/KATRINA.JPG

2) On the AL12 map on page 2, what is the XTRP path and why is it so different from the other ones?

3) Do they duplicate names for hurricanes/storms/depressions/puffs of wind? (It looks like they do).

4) I can't find a good site that has previous hurricane paths, I keep finding different paths for the same (old) hurricane (which makes me think they use old names for these things)

[korme]

It really is. He's really being straightforward and honest.
Can you give us any sort of commentary on what he's saying?

[Rizon]

5) Wasn't this a movie a few months ago?

[vtbub]

Dear lord,, you see the kids in the Gulfport shot?

[Pumpy Tudors]

The mayor is doing a good job right now, from what I can tell. It's a shame that I don't like the man. He cost New Orleans its hockey team 3 years ago, and I still haven't forgiven him. :D

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

BTW for those interested Tropical Depression 13 formed today in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression 14 may not be far behind.
There is anpther one forming off the coast of W. Africa too. Looks like its gonna be a long month. :(

[Ben E Lou]

Can you give us any sort of commentary on what he's saying?He finished a few moments ago. I'll see if I can recap. Others , please feel free to help me out here. Here are the things that stood out to me, as best as I remember them...


He's estimating 6 weeks to get power back on.
He expects to see a lot of boats in the streets of New Orleans.
He told people who are staying in their homes that, if they go to the attic to escape rising water, to make sure to take an axe or some other device to break through the ceiling in order to get on the roof.
He had one slip-up, I think. He said something along the lines of, "after a certain point this evening, if you've decided to stay you must understand that the winds will be so bad that there will be no services whatsoever. No fire. No police. Uh, no, excuse, there will be police out patrolling...." Methinks he realized right then that it probably wasn't a good idea to tell everyone that there would be no police.
The President got his cell phone number and he also has satellite phone contact with the White House now.
All in all, he was very blunt and straightforward about what New Orleans is probably facing.

[Ben E Lou]

1) What causes the hurricane predictions to make it curve back east, and not follow the path of Rizon's blue arrow here?Prevailing winds/jet stream?

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

He finished a few moments ago. I'll see if I can recap. Others , please feel free to help me out here. Here are the things that stood out to me, as best as I remember them...


He's estimating 6 weeks to get power back on.
He expects to see a lot of boats in the streets of New Orleans.
He told people who are staying in their homes that, if they go to the attic to escape rising water, to make sure to take an axe or some other device to break through the ceiling in order to get on the roof.
He had one slip-up, I think. He said something along the lines of, "after a certain point this evening, if you've decided to stay you must understand that the winds will be so bad that there will be no services whatsoever. No fire. No police. Uh, no, excuse, there will be police out patrolling...." Methinks he realized right then that it probably wasn't a good idea to tell everyone that there would be no police.
The President got his cell phone number and he also has satellite phone contact with the White House now.
All in all, he was very blunt and straightforward about what New Orleans is probably facing.
He's being honest though and thank goodness not sugar coating things.

[ScottVib]

A few questions:

1) What causes the hurricane predictions to make it curve back east, and not follow the path of Rizon's blue arrow here?

The general air flow in the middle latitudes is from West to East, so weather tends to go that way once you get away from the southern US coast. (The Jet Stream would start to steer the system)

2) On the AL12 map on page 2, what is the XTRP path and why is it so different from the other ones?

This is the current motion and an extrapolation of where it would go if it continued to follow that motion.

3) Do they duplicate names for hurricanes/storms/depressions/puffs of wind? (It looks like they do).

Hurricane names in the Atlantic an Pacific Basins are rotated on a 6 year cycle. However very strong hurricanes (like Andrew and looking like Katrina) have their names retired and never used again.

4) I can't find a good site that has previous hurricane paths, I keep finding different paths for the same (old) hurricane (which makes me think they use old names for these things)

You can get these from the National Hurricane Center Here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml Look in the second heading from the bottom of the page for yearly track maps.

Hope this helps

[kcchief19]

He had one slip-up, I think. He said something along the lines of, "after a certain point this evening, if you've decided to stay you must understand that the winds will be so bad that there will be no services whatsoever. No fire. No police. Uh, no, excuse, there will be police out patrolling...." Methinks he realized right then that it probably wasn't a good idea to tell everyone that there would be no police.
Sadly, there is likely a small percentage (less than 1 percent, hopefully) of the people staying behind because either consciously or subconsciously they think they will be able to score some free goodies during the aftermath ...

[Ryan S]

3) Do they duplicate names for hurricanes/storms/depressions/puffs of wind?
Yes, there is a six year loop of names, but sometimes names are retired.

According to the NHC, "<!--StartFragment -->The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate"

<!--StartFragment -->Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne were retired after 2004.

[GoldenEagle]

A few things:

1) The water temperature here I think is critical. If it is warm it will continue strengthen. I think it lost a little organization but the water is warm enough it will it will get back organized.
2) The winds have to stay below 200 MPH. At this time, it does not look like it will do that. The Superdome, which will have nearly 100,000 people in it, can take winds up to 200 MPH. Anything more than that could cause a huge number of casualties.
3) In my brief experience watching these storms, one they get to a certain point, they pretty much bare down and do not change direction. I think the land probably prevents it from changing but I am no expert. It is getting very close to that point.
4) Camille went straight up the Mississippi River and did not change directions. It also sent the water in the Mississippi the other direction (it moved north). This has so many of the same characteristics of Camille and I think it will be very similar. IF it goes up the river, it will maintain some its strengthen and be a hurricane all the way to Memphis.

There is still no word from sister’s fiancée. The unit in his town got called up but is with a different unit in a neighboring town. I am sure they will be in shelters but you still do not want to get in the way of this sucker.

[Cringer]

A few questions:

1) What causes the hurricane predictions to make it curve back east, and not follow the path of Rizon's blue arrow here?


There was a cold front crossing Texas, not that it made things cold. I would say this has an effect in pushing it back east.

[ScottVib]

A few things:

!) The water temperature here I think is critical. If it is warm it will continue strengthen. I think it lost a little organization but the water is warm enough it will it will get back organized.

The water temperatures are near or above 90 degrees F. There is little in the upper levels available to disturb the hurricane. In actuallity this is one of the best organized storms I can remember. It's just rare for a storm to maintain such a high wind speed. In actuality even though the storm's wind speeds are lower, the circulation itself is more potent as evidenced by the extremely low pressure.

2) The winds have to stay below 200 MPH. At this time, it does not look like it will do that. The Superdome, which will have nearly 100,000 people in it, can take winds up to 200 MPH. Anything more than that could cause a huge number of casualties.

This is highly likely IMO. The system is so large it's unlikely that it will have sustained winds above 200 MPH. However, it would not be surprising for there to be a few gusts over 200, particularly several stories above street level.

3) In my brief experience watching these storms, one they get to a certain point, they pretty much bare down and do not change direction. I think the land probably prevents it from changing but I am no expert. It is getting very close to that point.

The upper level steering is likely to have the storm bear down. But there is nothing inherent to hurricanes or the land that prevents it from turning. There have been storms that make sudden 90 degree turns (think Charley last year). Hurricanes more or less are stuck going in whatever direction the prevailing upper winds blow.


4) Camille went straight up the Mississippi River and did not change directions. It also sent the water in the Mississippi the other direction (it moved north). This has so many of the same characteristics of Camille and I think it will be very similar. IF it goes up the river, it will maintain some its strengthen and be a hurricane all the way to Memphis.

Following the river would not in and of itself extend the lenght of time that the storm maintains hurricane strength. The friction of the land tends to tear the circulation apart. The bigger determinant is a) the strength the hurricane hits with (the stronger it is the longer to weaken) and b) the speed it is moving (the faster it is, the further inland it can maintain hurricane strength).

Current forecasts take it through Jackson, Mississippi, as a tropical storm before weakening to a depression in Tennessee and the Ohio Valley.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Why is Shepard Smith still reporting from the French Quarter? He sure sounds pretty pissed off that he's still there...

[Rizon]

Are these wind patterns enough to push it (mostly) away from NO?

http://home.comcast.net/~rizon1976/us_wind_cur_720x486.jpg

[ScottVib]

Are these wind patterns enough to push it (mostly) away from NO?
No they aren't (in fact the winds on that map are mostly caused by the hurricane). The upper level winds are more critical, not the surface winds. The upper level winds are coming from the south.

[Rizon]

No they aren't. The upper level winds are more critical, not the surface winds. The upper level winds are coming from the south.

Maybe now would be a good time for me to go the gas station instead of waiting until tomorrow.

[Rizon]

No they aren't (in fact the winds on that map are mostly caused by the hurricane). The upper level winds are more critical, not the surface winds. The upper level winds are coming from the south.

Ah, I finally found a good map. Everything does look like it's pushing east.

This animated map takes a few minutes to load:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Darwin at work - idiots surfing the Alabama coast right now.

[Dutch]

He's being honest though and thank goodness not sugar coating things.

I don't think you can sugar coat a CAT 5 hitting the low-lands of Louisiana. This one is gonna be ugly. I hope everybody who can leave will.

The mayor also said they were going to flush the entire sewer system out to sea this evening to allow for additional water build-up.

Which prompted the newscaster to ask, "So, will we be able to flush our toilets only once then?"

I thought that was kind of funny. Of course, he responds, "No, you should be able to flush your toilets multiple times."

lol. Way to get the heart of the situation, lady. :) I know, I'm being critical of newscasters who are asked to report live for hours on end. I know that's not easy.

[ScottVib]

BTW for what it's worth the satellite does show the cloud tops warming (typically an indication of a weakening) recently. However, fluxuations in hurricanes are not uncommon, and the warming hasn't continued long enough to call it a trend. (And even then the "weakening" isn't likely to drop the storm below Category 4.)

[ScottVib]

Here is a satellite image focused on the hurricane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[Rizon]

Scott:

The clouds seem to be following my drawn in red pattern (using my awesome artistic skills). Is this caused by the hurricane or is it normal for them to travel across the Trailer States up to/swirling around in Canada?

http://home.comcast.net/~rizon1976/Swirl.JPG

[Buccaneer]

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad


a live news feed from WWLTV out of new orleans, a good source of local news.
Been watching this for the last hour and a half and it is excellent coverage.

[Buccaneer]

I was fascinated by the meteorologist talking about the "stadium effect" of the eye.

[ScottVib]

Scott:

The clouds seem to be following my drawn in red pattern (using my awesome artistic skills). Is this caused by the hurricane or is it normal for them to travel across the Trailer States up to/swirling around in Canada?

These are two seperate and unrelated systems. But the atmosphere is very fluid so air flow and airmasses are constantly circulated throughout the globe. In actuallity the air is flowing towards both swirls. (Think of them as whirlpools. Air flows from high pressure to low pressure, both swirls are low pressure systems)

[Pumpy Tudors]

This is completely unrelated to the hurricane, but I've seen the female news anchor, Karen Swensen, in person. She has a really big head.

[CamEdwards]

there's a guy (I have no idea of his bonafides) named Dr. Jeff Masters who's blogging at Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html). Here's a portion of his last post.


put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since the evacuation order was given too late to get all the people out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knoick down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

Not good at all.

[Buccaneer]

I like it when they talk on the phone to parish sheriffs and levee supervisors because they provide a true local flavor instead of anchors that talk and act like they could be in Boston or Seattle.

[ScottVib]

there's a guy (I have no idea of his bonafides) named Dr. Jeff Masters who's blogging at Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html).

Dr. Jeff Masters is the co-founder and director of Meteorology at Weather Underground.

[Cringer]

And now is a perfectly horrible time to bring this up.

Anyone seen the Air Force? storm chaser woman. I think she was on FOX or TWC. Blonde woman. She's hot.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Fox News reported that oil tankers have been abandoned off gulf of mexico, looks like there's also potential for environmental problems.
Oh and OIL FUTURES Prices are now up to $ 4.00 as per MSNBC

[Wolfpack]

Latest advisory is out and they've knocked the speed down just a touch more, to 160 MPH, but still 160 is nothing to sneeze at. It was never expected to stay at 175, and I do expect it'll fluctuate more. At worst, however, we're still talking about 145-150 at the bottom end at landfall. 155-165 is more likely at this point.

Hurricane KATRINA Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Chrts Archive

US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS
OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE
NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
904 MB...26.69 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...27.2 N... 89.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Craptacular]

And now is a perfectly horrible time to bring this up.

Anyone seen the Air Force? storm chaser woman. I think she was on FOX or TWC. Blonde woman. She's hot.
LOL. Nicole Mitchell is an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter, and a Weather Channel meteorologist. She's usually on in the morning with Marshall Seese (sp?) and Heather Tesch.

On a serious note, I hope everyone in the area has heeded the warnings and gotten the hell out of the way. Let Jim Cantore and his pals show you what it's like from a couple hundred miles away.

[Cringer]

Let Jim Cantore and his pals show you what it's like from a couple hundred miles away.

Loren just pointed out he hasn't been on for a while that we have seen, and maybe he is taking a nap so he is well rested for later tonight.

[Wolfpack]

Dola...should also note pressure has crept up to 904 from 902. However, this storm will not just fall apart before landfall. Just too little water left. Admittedly, storms like Opal and a couple of others have come undone just hours before landfall, but there's nothing here to indicate Katrina will do so in such a short amount of time.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Loren just pointed out he hasn't been on for a while that we have seen, and maybe he is taking a nap so he is well rested for later tonight.

I didn't catch exactly where he was, but my wife mentioned earlier that he was taking shelter at a retirement home or some such place. (no that's not a punch line, I'm serious).

[Craptacular]

I believe Jim is in or near Biloxi. Whatever place he was was going to hole up in was not a public shelter, but could be made available if necessary at the last minute.

[Cringer]

at a retirement home or some such place. (no that's not a punch line, I'm serious).

That reminds me of something I thought of earlier, and I wish they would cover at some point during one of these hurricanes.

What do places like retirement homes do, and hospitals, that are vulnerable to large amounts of damage and have I high number of people who are difficult to move. I hope they have some kind of way to help these people, or protect them in a decent area......

[GoldenEagle]

Jim is in Biloxi.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Oil futures are trading at over $70 a barrel. Get ready for a roller coaster week on Wall Street.

[Wolfpack]

Yep. Went out and tanked up both cars today. I'm assuming the 2.65 it's going for now up here in MI will be closer to 3.00 later this week as the extent of the damage in Louisiana becomes better known.

[Doug5984]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Wave height of 30 ft 64 miles south of Dolphin Island, AL

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf_inset.shtml

a page with some more info

[Dutch]

I don't know for sure, but I think he's in northwestern Louisiana. I hope I'm right, because that's expected to be a safe spot.

Yeah, I'm in nw la. Shreveport area, near Texas and Arkansas border. Probably will miss the entire thing as it gets pulled east.

We could use the rain, however.

[Galaxy]

There is anpther one forming off the coast of W. Africa too. Looks like its gonna be a long month. :(


What does "Tropical Depression " mean, and how does it form?

Did Eaglesfan27 get out in time? When is the main part of the hurricane suppose to hit?

[sterlingice]

I could easily be wrong, but my guess is that it refers to a depression in barometric pressure.

(and from dictionary.com: )
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr><td align="right" valign="bottom">Main Entry: </td><td align="left" valign="bottom">tropical depression</td></tr> <tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">Part of Speech: </td><td align="left" valign="bottom">noun</td></tr> <tr><td align="right" valign="top">Definition: </td><td align="left" valign="bottom">a cyclone in a tropical region that is more intense than a disturbance but less than a storm, with wind speeds of 38 mph or less</td></tr></tbody> </table>

SI

[sachmo71]

I'd worry more about gas prices if the hurricane were heading for Lake Charles.

[sachmo71]

dola...how about the Louisania homeland security director saying that when the power goes out in the Superdome, it will be 120-130 degrees and RAINING.

:eek:

[Craptacular]

As sterlingice noted, a TD is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph. A tropical cyclone is defined as:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#CENTER). Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#EXTRA) cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

[Craptacular]

10 PM CDT advisory ... the usually more interesting discussion from the NHC to follow



000
WTNT32 KNHC 290250
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE
CENTER OF KATRINA VERY SHORTLY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.6 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

</pre>

[Craptacular]

Discussion:



000
WTNT42 KNHC 290249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA.
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT NEAR 00Z REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 155
KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO 140 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
PRESSURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW...904 MB AT LAST REPORT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...OR
SFMR...SUGGESTED WINDS WERE IN THE 120-130 KT RANGE...AND LIMITED
DROPSONDE DATA ALSO SUGGESTED SOMETHING A LITTLE BELOW 140 KT.
THERE ARE ENOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SFMR AT
THESE SPEEDS FOR ME TO STICK WITH THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT
ADJUSTMENT FOR NOW.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER
EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW
A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS IS
RELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT
LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY ARE
GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THAT
EVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THAT
EXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 335/9. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING JUST A BIT
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. WHILE THERE IS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...TRACK
ANOMOLIES OF 30-50 MILES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN 12-18 HOURS OUT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 27.6N 89.4W 140 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 29.2N 89.7W 135 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 31.8N 89.5W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/1200Z 34.8N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0000Z 37.7N 85.9W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0000Z 43.5N 78.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z 50.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED</pre>

[Craptacular]

Crappy's summary from above:

Winds still estimated at 160, but some signs of weakening. However, if eyewall replacement is in fact underway, it could expand the wind field, which means a greater area of destructive winds. More bad news is that the forward movement of the storm has slowed to 10 mph (it was 11 last advisory), which means it could hang around just a little longer.

[Wolfpack]

They're kinda guessing at the intensity because Katrina isn't fitting the model they normally use. I imagine they'll get better info overnight to firm up whether she is indeed weakening in any meaningful way. They have for the moment dropped her to a very powerful Cat 4 at landfall, scheduled for just after 8 AM EDT (7 PM CDT) tomorrow morning.

Unfortunately, the latest track is putting Katrina on a course to do the worst lakeside flooding from Pontchartrain into New Orleans, which is a path just east of the city. Gulf water will be forced into the lake and then as Katrina moves past, the wind will drive lake water into the city. There's a lot more water in the lake than the Mississippi. I don't know how devastating it'll be (I have to hope that the news is exaggerating somewhat to get eyeballs watching), but this will not be a pretty sight come Tuesday when the storm is finally out of the area and they can get up in the air to see what's left.

[GoldenEagle]

Why is it weakening? Is there any indication as to that? Does the slowing down of the storm mean that it could gain wind strength? Does all this really matter?

[Rizon]

Yep. Went out and tanked up both cars today. I'm assuming the 2.65 it's going for now up here in MI will be closer to 3.00 later this week as the extent of the damage in Louisiana becomes better known.

I filled mine up tonight. $3.00/g

[Buccaneer]

Why is it weakening? Is there any indication as to that?
Not sure, probably due to the reforming of the eye-wall.

Does the slowing down of the storm mean that it could gain wind strength? Does all this really matter?
Yes, absolutely. I believe a faster more powerful storm would cause marginally less damage than a slower less powerful storm. Going from 14 mph down 10 mph means at least one more hour of heavy winds and rain and with the expanding area, the damage could be more widely felt.

[Craptacular]

Why is it weakening? Is there any indication as to that? Does the slowing down of the storm mean that it could gain wind strength? Does all this really matter?
According to the latest NHC discussion, there are some data sources that are showing slightly lower winds. Also, there are signs of eyewall replacement, where the area of storms immediately outside the eyewall contracts, and basically sucks the moisture out of the inner eyewall. The hurricane is usually weakening during the replacement. HOWEVER, once the outer eyewall completely replaces the inner eyewall and contracts, the storm is often as strong (or even stronger) than it was beforehand. This happened in Andrew, and the storm stengthened right at landfall. If the eyewall in Katrina is replaced, the question is, how long will it take? It could really suck if it completes the cycle right before landfall.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

I hope it doesnt turn into The Lost City of New Orleans, but for a few weeks it just might.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Dola: What Im worried about are those with heart conditions and those that are diabetics in the superdome and within the path of destruction. Heart conditions can be exacurbated by the stress caused by the events, heat, etc. and for those that depend on insulin, no power could mean no insulin to ctrl diabetes. AI hope their meds are on ice buckets right now and there's plenty available.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Yep. Went out and tanked up both cars today. I'm assuming the 2.65 it's going for now up here in MI will be closer to 3.00 later this week as the extent of the damage in Louisiana becomes better known.
Last night when I topped off Premium was $ 2.88, I just got back from the gym and gas (premium) is noW $ 2. 99....wonder what it will be tomorrow.

[vex]

Yeah, I got scared to think of what prices will be in the next few days so I went and filled up on $2.42.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Yeah, I got scared to think of what prices will be in the next few days so I went and filled up on $2.42.
Futures still trading (http://www.nymex.com/index.aspx) at $70 per barrel... I don't think it's too far of a stretch to say that $4.00 a gallon will surface in some parts of the country.

[Wolfpack]

According to the latest NHC discussion, there are some data sources that are showing slightly lower winds. Also, there are signs of eyewall replacement, where the area of storms immediately outside the eyewall contracts, and basically sucks the moisture out of the inner eyewall. The hurricane is usually weakening during the replacement. HOWEVER, once the outer eyewall completely replaces the inner eyewall and contracts, the storm is often as strong (or even stronger) than it was beforehand. This happened in Andrew, and the storm stengthened right at landfall. If the eyewall in Katrina is replaced, the question is, how long will it take? It could really suck if it completes the cycle right before landfall.

This would be the grimmest of scenarios, but given the amount of time left before landfall, I don't think there's enough time for Katrina to replace the eyewall. At worst, she'll keep present strength or perhaps reach 165, but typically storms do weaken a little before landfall, particularly in the Gulf. I think it's more likely she'll back down to 155 or even 150, though. Then again at this sort of strength, we're talking "many houses and other structures damaged or destroyed", rather than "most houses and other structures damaged or destroyed". It just ain't gonna make much difference.

[GoldenEagle]

The 1 AM eastern update has the pressure at 908 mb. Winds are still at 160 MPH. It is still moving at 10 MPH and is 150 SSE of New Orleans.

[GoldenEagle]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15

This form made it where you have to register to view it. I guess they were getting too many hits.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

I may sound like a Doomsayer but, After tomorrow this nation will be changed economically, emotionally, and will be physically saken by what will enevitably have taken place in N.O., Mississippi, and Alabama. Landscape and lives will forever be changed. I hope Im wrong when saying this but the shock felt after Sept. 11th will pale in comparison to this if the worst comes to pass. There are countless out there who didnt heed the warning or have no means to flee, I pray for their safety and God Bless and Protect everyone in the path of destruction and God Bless America.

[Peregrine]

I may sound like a Doomsayer but, After tomorrow this nation will be changed economically, emotionally, and will be physically saken by what will enevitably have taken place in N.O., Mississippi, and Alabama. Landscape and lives will forever be changed. I hope Im wrong when saying this but the shock felt after Sept. 11th will pale in comparison to this if the worst comes to pass. There are countless out there who didnt heed the warning or have no means to flee, I pray for their safety and God Bless and Protect everyone in the path of destruction and God Bless America.

You're right, you do sound like a doomsayer. I don't think it's going to be anything so catastrophic. The shock will be worse than September 11? No way in hell.

[GoldenEagle]

Well, it was a downgraded to a four and it is moving a little bit faster at the 3 AM update. This is better news, but it still does not look good.

[ScottVib]

Now filled into 915 mb and 150 mph, strong Category 4.

Funny thing, the CNN meteorologist blew up at the anchor screaming at her to "let him talk".

The satellite is significantly less impressive, left side of the storm looks to be getting some shear.

[SackAttack]

You're right, you do sound like a doomsayer. I don't think it's going to be anything so catastrophic. The shock will be worse than September 11? No way in hell.

I dunno, you don't think people might get more outraged over $4/gallon gas than over two fallen towers?

You're less of a cynic than I am, I guess.

[Peregrine]

I dunno, you don't think people might get more outraged over $4/gallon gas than over two fallen towers?

You're less of a cynic than I am, I guess.

Yeah but that has little to do with the hurricane, it's just the latest excuse for the profiteering oil companies and refinery owners to restrict supply and hike prices. People will have the chance hurricane or no hurricane.

[sterlingice]

I dunno, you don't think people might get more outraged over $4/gallon gas than over two fallen towers?

You're less of a cynic than I am, I guess.
Yeah, but while it's a NIMBY thing (the thought process of "gas prices affect me, while terrorism, well, not so much unless i live in NYC"). It's working counter the "flag-waving, patriotism, us-against-them" mentality. Plus, it's not somewhere on the east coast or California so it's not as sexy of a story. But since there's no attractive white female missing this week, it gives the news stations something to look at.

SI

[HomerJSimpson]

Weakening and turning away from New Orleans. Good news.

[Solecismic]

It's better news for New Orleans, that's for sure. But they're by no means out of the woods. The eye is still 4-5 hours from that area, and a ten-mile jog back to the west could greatly increase the damage.

Hurricanes can change direction suddenly, and a westward jog would also be an indication of increased strength.

No one knows yet whether Lake Pontchartrain will break the levees.

[wade moore]

It's better news for New Orleans, that's for sure. But they're by no means out of the woods. The eye is still 4-5 hours from that area, and a ten-mile jog back to the west could greatly increase the damage.

Hurricanes can change direction suddenly, and a westward jog would also be an indication of increased strength.

No one knows yet whether Lake Pontchartrain will break the levees.
From everything I'm hearing, your last statement appears to be the key...

No matter how hard the storm hits, whether it's a direct hit, etc... if the levees break, New Orleans is in a world of hurt...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Dola: What Im worried about are those with heart conditions and those that are diabetics in the superdome and within the path of destruction. Heart conditions can be exacurbated by the stress caused by the events, heat, etc. ...

I thought about your post when I saw this sad blurb:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/29/hurricane.katrina/index.html
Three residents of a New Orleans nursing home died Sunday while being evacuated to Baton Rouge, said Don Moreau, chief of operations for the East Baton Rouge Parish Coroner's Office.

The 23 residents were supposed to stay at a church, where one of the bodies was found. The other body was found on a school bus and a third person died at a hospital, Moreau said.

The others were found to be suffering from various forms of dehydration and exhaustion, he said.

Moreau did not know whether authorities would term the deaths storm-related. "These people are very fragile," he said. "When they're loaded up on a school bus and transported out of New Orleans ..."

One person died in similar circumstances during evacuations from Hurricane Ivan, he said.

[Philliesfan980]

Joined this thread a little late, but hopefully this thing will pass, we really don't need any thing like this going on right now.

What are the chances that other countries will lend aid to us if this thing really does what its supposted to do?

[HomerJSimpson]

Reporting on CNN: The roof of the Superdome is failing and may possibly come off.

[Philliesfan980]

Reporting on CNN: The roof of the Superdome is failing and may possibly come off.

Could be worse than 9/11 if that happens

[HomerJSimpson]

Could be worse than 9/11 if that happens


Not reallly. They have moved people off the floor incase the roof collapses, but for the most part it just means the Saints will be looking for a new home.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Biloxi is gonna get the brunt bt New Orleans is getting hammered too.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Dola: These reporters are pretty stupid that its pathetic. HEAD INDOORS!!!!!

[Cringer]

Reporting on CNN: The roof of the Superdome is failing and may possibly come off.

Stupid FOX had me all worried with their writing at the bottom "Superdome roof has hole, lots of rain getting in."

They finally just had someone on who said the lining came off a little and the structure is just fine. Just means some water is getting in.

[HomerJSimpson]

Stupid FOX had me all worried with their writing at the bottom "Superdome roof has hole, lots of rain getting in."

They finally just had someone on who said the lining came off a little and the structure is just fine. Just means some water is getting in.


Really? The reporter from CNN said he can see daylight through the roof because a section of the roof has come off.

[sachmo71]

Can we dispense with the 9/11 comparisons?

[Cringer]

Really? The reporter from CNN said he can see daylight through the roof because a section of the roof has come off.

FOX people are reporting this too now, even though the state official they just had on was downplaying like I said.

Who knows. I am not getting going to take some of hese reports too serious as of right now I think.

Saints are moving to San Antonio....... :p

[JonInMiddleGA]

Can we dispense with the 9/11 comparisons?

{shrug} The comparisons seem pretty valid to me, as 9/11 does sort of set the U.S. benchmark for catastrophic loss of life, property, etc. And it's the same standard that the head of disaster planning in New Orleans used for perspective
in the long CNN piece that aired a lot yesterday, so it's not like this is an FOFC thing or something.

9/11 is the catastrophe that all others will be compared to (until something surpasses it).

[panerd]

{shrug} The comparisons seem pretty valid to me, as 9/11 does sort of set the U.S. benchmark for catastrophic loss of life, property, etc. And it's the same standard that the head of disaster planning in New Orleans used for perspective
in the long CNN piece that aired a lot yesterday, so it's not like this is an FOFC thing or something.

9/11 is the catastrophe that all others will be compared to (until something surpasses it).

I agree with sachmo though. Compare this to hurricane Andrew or the tsunami (as an extreme) or another NATURAL disaster, but it not a bunch of assholes who flew planes into buildings on purpose. I think the loss comparisons are valid, but I jsut feel like these events are apples and oranges.

[wbatl1]

Where is the other thread that ScottVib started?

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

MSNBC: Reports of Levy breached on North side of N.O.
No Official confirmation though.

[HomerJSimpson]

Where is the other thread that ScottVib started?


This is it. Eaglefan's thread was merged with this one.

[HomerJSimpson]

By MARY FOSTER

(AP) Some of the thousands of displaced residents take cover from Hurricane Katrina at the Superdome, a...
Full Image



NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Howling wind from Hurricane Katrina peeled holes in the roof of the Superdome on Monday morning as thousands of people huddled inside seeking shelter.

Pieces of metal sheared off, leaving two holes that were visible from the floor. Water dripped in and people were moved away from about five sections of those seats.

The development, around 8 a.m. as the storm neared its peak outside, did not create any visible fear among the estimated 8,000 to 9,000 people who spent the night in the huge arena. Some watched as sheets of metal, flapping visibly, rumbled loudly. From the floor, looking up more than 19 stories, it appeared to be openings of about 6 feet long.

General Manager Glenn Menard said he did not know how serious the problem was. "We have no way of getting anyone up there to look," he said.

[wbatl1]

This is it. Eaglefan's thread was merged with this one.

Thats what I figured after I spent 20 minutes searching for it. Thanks

[Cringer]

This FOX guy is nuts. He is outside in Gulfport. He keeps pausing as he watches stuff fly. He was talking and then just went silent....couple seconds starring off..."Oh wow, that roof just flew off." real quietly....

They just asked him where he goes when not on air, he said the hotel was locked up so they just go duck behind a wall. This guy is gonna have a long day...