OT (Politics): Who will be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008?

[flere-imsaho]

Following up from here (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=47984), let's do some early speculation on the Republican side. Again, who WILL, not should, be the candidate in 2008?

[Crapshoot]

I see Frist pulling it off - the GOP is going to win this only by playing further to the base, and I think Frist looks good to them.

[fantastic flying froggies]

I know next to nothing about US internal politics.

When in doubt, go with the trout!

[Noop]

For some reason I can see them going toward a moderate nominee...

[stevew]

Allen has really impressed me when i've seen him talk. Pretty much the anti-bush when it comes to rocking the mic. I think he can present himself as enough of a moderate to be appealing to undecideds.

[JPhillips]

Allen has a decent amount of baggage that will come out during the primaries. I'm not sure he can win enough of the non-South primaries.

It looks to me like McCain is doing everything he can to get the nomination. The Repubs, much more so than the Dems, like to control the process by lining up the party heavyweights behind one candidate. This seems to be happening with McCain. What will be interesting is seeing if the party can convince Repub voters that McCain should be the choice.

[King of New York]

It's Giulliani's if he wants it--his 9/11 credentials are just unbeatable. Despite a messy personal life and some questionable personnel recommendations, he still does not have a scratch on him. If Giuliani does not want it, then it'll be George Allen, I think. His Virginia background will help--being from the upper south, he can appeal to deep south and to mid-Atlantic voters. He is very photogenic, and he has something of Clinton's soft political touch. Elizabeth Dole might have a shot--after eight years of W, a lot of republicans would welcome her understated style. McCain has angered too many party activists, and that will hurt him in the primaries. Frist's role in the Terri Schiavo case alienated a lot of moderates--the tapes of him making a long-distance diagnosis, and of him subsequently denying having done so, will doom him.

[Butter]

I'm surprised so many are picking McCain... I figured his day had passed. I can't see him ever getting the nomination. Giuliani would make much more sense, frankly.

[ice4277]

I see Frist pulling it off - the GOP is going to win this only by playing further to the base, and I think Frist looks good to them.

If there is a Clinton/Frist final, I am moving to Somalia.

[CamEdwards]

damn. I don't know what happened to my post, but it basically said the same thing as King of New York.

I think Giuliani would be a horrible candidate, and the only things that makesme think he might not get it would be a) his position on abortion and b) his position on gun control. I could see a GOP candidate who's pro-choice, and I could see a GOP candidate who's anti-gun, but I don't know if a candidate who's both has a real chance in the primaries.

[MalcPow]

It's Giulliani's if he wants it--his 9/11 credentials are just unbeatable. Despite a messy personal life and some questionable personnel recommendations, he still does not have a scratch on him. If Giuliani does not want it, then it'll be George Allen, I think. His Virginia background will help--being from the upper south, he can appeal to deep south and to mid-Atlantic voters. He is very photogenic, and he has something of Clinton's soft political touch. Elizabeth Dole might have a shot--after eight years of W, a lot of republicans would welcome her understated style. McCain has angered too many party activists, and that will hurt him in the primaries. Frist's role in the Terri Schiavo case alienated a lot of moderates--the tapes of him making a long-distance diagnosis, and of him subsequently denying having done so, will doom him.

It's not Giuliani's if he wants it at this point, he would have to do a ton of work and really isn't even on the same plane as McCain, Frist, Allen, or even Brownback at this point. The media's fascination with Giuliani at this point is a lot of smoke and not much of an advantage considering the media loves McCain more. Allen is a solid candidate, and don't discount that he's a former governor, that is still important in a Republican nominee. But Frist has all the money and seems to really want the Presidency, and that is going to be tough to overcome. It's too bad because he is a lockdown, 100% VP if he wants it, but people on the right see a lot of problems with a Frist v. Clinton showdown and he might get cut up for it. He also, for someone who is so careful not to make enemies, has a number of them. Lott and Graham both do not like Frist and will back McCain out of varying amounts of spite, and the southern primaries, particularly South Carolina, look to be very important.

So I think Allen sets up well, but it's going to be very interesting. Giuliani as the frontrunner is pure fiction right now though.

[Ryche]

I think it comes down to McCain vs. Frist and it sounds like McCain actually has a lot of Bush's donors backing him at this point. I certainly think he's the most electable of the above, I'm not sure anyone outside McCain, Giuliani and Rice on that list could win. I don't see how anyone else there can 'excite' the electorate, which I believe is the only way the presidency stays Republican.

But Clinton against anyone on the list outside McCain will make the 2004 race look civil in comparison. It will be vicious.

[Raiders Army]

RUDY! RUDY! RUDY!

[molson]

Here's the current odds on one betting website:

John McCain 2.75
Rudy Giuliani 3
Condoleeza Rice 6
Jeb Bush 8
Bill Frist 8.5
George Allen 9
Chuck Hagel 10
George Pataki 10
Newt Gengrich 10
Tom Ridge 10
Mitt Romney 12
Bill Owens 14
Haley Barbour 14
Norm Coleman 14
Lindsey Graham 16
Sam Brownback 21
John Ashcroft 26
Arnold Schwarzenegger 41
Dick Cheney 41
Laura Bush 101

[Raiders Army]

LOL. Laura Bush! And Arnie is equal to Dick!

[Bee]

I'd think the conservative arm of the Republican Party would have a hard time accepting Giuliani or McCain (although I'd be happy with McCain).

[Crapshoot]

damn. I don't know what happened to my post, but it basically said the same thing as King of New York.

I think Giuliani would be a horrible candidate, and the only things that makesme think he might not get it would be a) his position on abortion and b) his position on gun control. I could see a GOP candidate who's pro-choice, and I could see a GOP candidate who's anti-gun, but I don't know if a candidate who's both has a real chance in the primaries.

Cam, what's the story with Frist ? Over at the corner, they're laughing at the idea that he could win this - is this just a blue-state Republican thing, or what ? I thought Frist appeals to the base, and to the anyone but McCain conservatives- especially since Brownback is probably too far to the right.

[molson]

LOL. Laura Bush! And Arnie is equal to Dick!

The Democratic odds on the same site have Bill Mahr at 151-1.

[st.cronin]

Of the longshots, Lindsey Graham would be the most amusing.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm in the "too early & too close to call" camp on this one right now.

I think it's likely that both the Pres. nominee & his running mate will come from this group: Allen, Brownback, Frist, and Romney.

The wildcard in the whole thing is Rudy, who could probably get whatever slot he wanted right now.

[Bee]

I'm in the "too early & too close to call" camp on this one right now.

I think it's likely that both the Pres. nominee & his running mate will come from this group: Allen, Brownback, Frist, and Romney.

The wildcard in the whole thing is Rudy, who could probably get whatever slot he wanted right now.

Allen with a Frist VP candidate would be pretty sweet IMO.

[Solecismic]

McCain will turn 72 just before the next election. I don't see him getting the Republicans to rally around him, either. He's notorious for not toeing the party line.

For that reason, I hope he does pull it off. If the Democrats put up another nabob of negativity, it would be nice to have someone interesting to vote for.

Giuliani would be a fun president, but I'd be a little worried what he'd do with the Iran crisis, however. He seems about as nuanced as Bush himself.

Given what he did for New York, I bet he'd be a real throwback to the Rockefeller Republicans when it comes to domestic policy. That would be welcome. But it would upset the radical right to the point where they might put up a third-party candidate in protest.

[Senator]

McCain at 72 is rough, especially after what he has been through in his life, though I respect the man and like the Teddy Roosevelt wing of the party.

My spies keep telling me Allen, so I watch and wait. One year is a lifetime in politics.

[Crapshoot]

I'm in the "too early & too close to call" camp on this one right now.

I think it's likely that both the Pres. nominee & his running mate will come from this group: Allen, Brownback, Frist, and Romney.

The wildcard in the whole thing is Rudy, who could probably get whatever slot he wanted right now.

You think Brownback has the cred to get the nomination on his own ? I could see him as a McCain or Rudy running mate as a sop to the Christian right, but I'm not sure how he beats Allen, Frist, McCain and Romney for the top spot.

[JPhillips]

Isn't Allen up for reelection this year? I thought he was the guy that Webb was running against. His whole presidential campaign may boil down to that race. What happens to his money if he loses or just squeaks by a former Reagan appointee?

[st.cronin]

A Rudy-Brownback ticket would be absolutely unbeatable. Against Hillary, they might win all 50 states running away.

[JPhillips]

In a theoretical primary with many of these guys, how does Rudy win? He just doesn't seem to have a constituency that someone else doesn't have a stronger hold on.

[Young Drachma]

Guillani is too liberal, too New York and there is no way they'll rally behind him. Plus, I think he realizes he can make a lot more money right now, rather than running a tight race and getting beaten..or having all his baggage brought back to the surface.

[st.cronin]

In a theoretical primary with many of these guys, how does Rudy win? He just doesn't seem to have a constituency that someone else doesn't have a stronger hold on.

Rudy gets the nomination by announcing that he is seeking the nomination. As JimGa pointed out, Rudy gets whatever Rudy wants.

[JPhillips]

Rudy is pro-choice, pro-gun control and lived with another woman while he was still married. You really think he could win the nomination just by announcing?

[Young Drachma]

A Rudy-Brownback ticket would be absolutely unbeatable. Against Hillary, they might win all 50 states running away.

No way. The liberals would raise millions just digging out all the shady stuff he did while he was mayor of New York and a prosecutor, not to mention his less than stellar credentials on race.

He's attractive to people who don't know him and think he was the sole saviour of 9/11 in NYC, which is absurd and just not true at all. His image outside the northeast is completely different and he's just as polarizing to folks in the NYC area, as Dianne Feinstein is in the Senate.

His candidacy is DOA.

[Young Drachma]

Rudy is pro-choice, pro-gun control and lived with another woman while he was still married. You really think he could win the nomination just by announcing?

Maybe the Democratic nomination. ;)

[st.cronin]

Rudy is as polished a public speaker as Bill Clinton and has less baggage than Clinton did. But, you might be right.

I think, in the GOP, he gets whatever job he wants, and I don't think the Dems have a candidate that can possibly compete with him. Remember, when he was running head to head for the Senate against Hillary in New York he was polling at something like 65-35 ahead. And that was BEFORE 9/11.

[JonInMiddleGA]

You think Brownback has the cred to get the nomination on his own ?

Today? No, I don't think he does.

But he's one of the two (Romney the other) that I believe have good potential to get a lot stronger between now & the finish line. And there's a lot of steps to be taken between now & then. I figure either Frist or Allen (who I consider the front-runners) do something to take themselves out of the hunt between now & then (somebody usually stumbles). If it's something verbal that bounces them I'd figure that to be Frist, if it's something on paper (some scandal or whatever) I'd bet on Allen.

And if the one who doesn't suffer a setback that's fatal to their hopes but rather something fairly minor, then that opens the door for one of the others like Brownback to end up on the top of the ticket.

The only combination I don't believe is very likely is Frist/Allen or Allen/Frist.
That just feels too Southern to me, I think there's a need to either go west or north for at least the bottom half of the ticket.

But heck, this far out? It's not much more than educated guesswork AFAIC, which is probably why I'm indulging in it, sort of in the spirit of all the brackets to be filled out in the next few days.

[Subby]

Gerge Allen v. Mark Warner would be fantastic!

[GrantDawg]

I just don't see McCain or Rudy winning a Republican nomination. Unless your suggesting the Christian right is going to sit this one out?

[st.cronin]

I just don't see McCain or Rudy winning a Republican nomination. Unless your suggesting the Christian right is going to sit this one out?

Who is the Christian right going to get behind? Jeb Bush? There's no way the GOP would allow that to happen. Compromises will be made, etc. The next GOP nominee will not be much like Bush.

[Young Drachma]

Maybe the GOP will tell the Christian Right that they ruled for 8 years and now the party has to move on a bit.

[SFL Cat]

I'd support a George Allen ticket.

[kcchief19]

McCain at 72 is rough, especially after what he has been through in his life, though I respect the man and like the Teddy Roosevelt wing of the party.

My spies keep telling me Allen, so I watch and wait. One year is a lifetime in politics.
Forced to choose now, I'd go with Romney, in part because he's pretty much already running and you'd figure he'd have the inside kick in New Hampshire. to jump out early. But I think Allen may prove to be the ultimate choice.

The far-right wing of the Republican Party is so opposed to McCain getting the nomination they will stop at nothing to defeat him, so he literally has no chance. All the early polls show strength for McCain and Guliani, but moderates simply will not choose the Republican nominee. There will be family value conservatives coming out of the woodwork to oppose Guliani.

I think Frist has too much baggage; it would be like Tom Daschle trying to win the Democratic nomination. House and Senate leaders have to play their roles so partisan that it tarnishes them when it comes to running for president.

I'm amused at Brownback's mention. To me, he's a less charasmatic Dick Gephardt -- if that's possible. He appeals to a niche of the party and that's it. He might play well in Iowa, but he has no chance after that. He's a lightweight.

[Swaggs]

I think that Giuliani, and probably McCain, would lose the presidential election if they manage to win the GOP nomination because a far-right, third party candidate would run against them and pick up a fairly significant sized chunk of the vote.

I think Frist will end up winning the nomination.

[st.cronin]

I'm amused at Brownback's mention. To me, he's a less charasmatic Dick Gephardt -- if that's possible. He appeals to a niche of the party and that's it. He might play well in Iowa, but he has no chance after that. He's a lightweight.

That's interesting because I like both Brownback and Gephardt.

[sabotai]

If Rudy Giuliani or John McCain gets the nomination, it won't matter who the Democrats put up to run for President (they'll lose).

[kcchief19]

Rudy is as polished a public speaker as Bill Clinton and has less baggage than Clinton did. But, you might be right.

I think, in the GOP, he gets whatever job he wants, and I don't think the Dems have a candidate that can possibly compete with him. Remember, when he was running head to head for the Senate against Hillary in New York he was polling at something like 65-35 ahead. And that was BEFORE 9/11.
Sorry, I have to issue an evidence press here. A Quinipiac poll just before Guliani pulled out put it at 44-43 in Hillary's favor. In fact, almost every poll before Guiliani's exit showed the race as a dead heat. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11372.xml

[Swaggs]

If Rudy Giuliani or John McCain gets the nomination, it won't matter who the Democrats put up to run for President (they'll lose).

I would disagree with that. Particularly on Giuliani.

I really believe a far right candidate would oppose Giuliani in the general election because he is pro-choice and pro-gun control. I think any gains Giuliani would make on moderate voters would be offset by the combination of a far right third party candidate and voter apathy based on those two issues. I think he would only win if the democrats also put up a candidate that would divide their base.

[st.cronin]

Sorry, I have to issue an evidence press here. A Quinipiac poll just before Guliani pulled out put it at 44-43 in Hillary's favor. In fact, almost every poll before Guiliani's exit showed the race as a dead heat. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11372.xml

My memory may be faulty there, but the point still stands. That he was able to fight Hillary to a draw, pre 9/11, in Hillary country, is to me quite impressive.

[flere-imsaho]

New York was Hillary country? Especially in light of Giuliani's exploits there?

[flere-imsaho]

If I can over-generalize for a moment, I think Frist winning the nomination would be like Kerry winning the Democratic nomination in 2004. :)

[Solecismic]

Romney is not very popular up here. They're joking that he wants to run for president because he knows he can't keep his current job. He's definitely getting the flip-flop label over the abortion issue.

[ISiddiqui]

A lot of the Bush guys are getting behind McCain. He may be a tough sell to the far right guys, but as Bush's campaign showed, if you get the right guys behind you, you can sail into the winner's circle. If Allen can score an impressive win this year, it may be his. We'll have to see, though.

[Raiders Army]

Ru---Dee! Ru---Dee! Ru---Dee!

[Solecismic]

George Allen has taken the lead role in the telemarketing industry's push to overturn the national no-call list legislation.

I don't think Allen would be able to get very far trying to overturn it - after all, more than half of the country's households signed up for the list. But the telemarketers are trying to get more exceptions added to the legislation. It's already fairly feeble - just a couple more execeptions and all it will affect is the window glass people and the rug cleaning people.

Anyhow, for that reason, I see Allen as just another greedy career politician.

[Ryche]

If I can over-generalize for a moment, I think Frist winning the nomination would be like Kerry winning the Democratic nomination in 2004. :)

Or Dole in 1996. A decent man, but unable to generate any excitement or interest from the general public.

[Warhammer]

Romney is not very popular up here. They're joking that he wants to run for president because he knows he can't keep his current job. He's definitely getting the flip-flop label over the abortion issue.

A lot of people down here said the same thing about Clinton in Arkansas.

[Warhammer]

The Republicans need to move to the right. Bush has taken the party too much to the center and is right now reaping the rewards of that. Mc Cain talks a good game, but what has he really DONE? Not only that, what has he really done that has been GOOD?

[Glengoyne]

I heard a piece on NPR a couple of weeks ago on Sam Brownback. This is a guy whose positions on social issues, I'm completely opposed to. He is aggressively anti-abortion, anti gay marriage, against Stem Cell research. In short, he is pretty much opposite me on nearly every social issue.

I really liked what he had to say, and appreciated how he has voted in the past. He is one of the few guys I think we could count on actively trying to reduce spending. I started listening thinking that this guy was a nut-job, and after twenty minutes of the aired interview, I was ready to declare my fealty. I'm hoping he surprises me in the primary.

I think the most electable Republican is McCain. A Republican that can win California, I don't think the Dems actually have a counter to that.

I think Frist goes down harder in the general than Dole did.

[Glengoyne]

Who is the Christian right going to get behind? Jeb Bush? There's no way the GOP would allow that to happen. Compromises will be made, etc. The next GOP nominee will not be much like Bush. I hope you are right. I know that, at least against Gore, I was hoping for a Bush loss, with the hopes that the power brokers in the party might change. I'd love to see the GOP move a generous step away from the social conservatives.

[Warhammer]

I hope you are right. I know that, at least against Gore, I was hoping for a Bush loss, with the hopes that the power brokers in the party might change. I'd love to see the GOP move a generous step away from the social conservatives.

Bush is a pretty liberal socially, at least when it comes to spending money. I thought his compromise on stem cell research was good, although I know a lot of people don't agree with it, but he could have completely kaboshed it.

[JPhillips]

A strong Romney run would be very interesting. I wonder what the Christian right would do with a Mormon candidate.

[stevew]

A strong Romney run would be very interesting. I wonder what the Christian right would do with a Mormon candidate.

Vote for the other guy.

[Swaggs]

Bush is a pretty liberal socially, at least when it comes to spending money.

I can understand this sentiment, but I think you are misguided in classifying irresponsible spending as liberal.

I will not try to mask the fact that I am a democrat (and socially liberal), but I do not think that the federal spending under Bush's presidency (and I realize he is partnered with congress in this) is liberal or conservative. Cutting taxes without cutting spending is not a practice that either side of the political spectrum would claim to be one of its "traits."

Classifying Bush's (and congress's) poor economic track record as liberal is like calling Bill Clinton's infidelity conservative. One has nothing to do with the other. They are the results of an individual (or individuals) performance.

[Glengoyne]

Bush is a pretty liberal socially, at least when it comes to spending money. I thought his compromise on stem cell research was good, although I know a lot of people don't agree with it, but he could have completely kaboshed it. I dunno. I think his "compromise" was a weak kneed stand that pretty effectively Keeboshed the whole thing from the perspective that it made it much more difficult for folks to actually receive federal funding for the research. I can see someone saying that Bush is fiscally liberal, but not socially.

[st.cronin]

Bush is a pretty liberal socially, at least when it comes to spending money. I thought his compromise on stem cell research was good, although I know a lot of people don't agree with it, but he could have completely kaboshed it.

His 'compromise' was not a compromise, and is easily the dumbest thing he's done as President, politically or otherwise.

[JonInMiddleGA]

...and is easily the dumbest thing he's done as President, politically

Erm ... I'd say that his direction on immigration tops this by a pretty big margin.
I've heard more grassroots level grousing about that than anything else I can recall in either term.

[Glengoyne]

Erm ... I'd say that his direction on immigration tops this by a pretty big margin.
I've heard more grassroots level grousing about that than anything else I can recall in either term.

Taking my obligatory chance to state that I think this is one of the few issues G.W. gotten right. I just wish he had done more than pay lip service to it.

[SirFozzie]

Romney was a strong 2nd in the straw poll behind the homestate Frist.. and he's definitely playing to the conservative base, with his flip flop on abortion, and now trying to slip a bill into the State House that would exempt the group Catholic Charities from discrimination laws with regards to adoption (they recently said they would place no more children in adoptive homes because they could not honor the state's anti-discrimination laws with regards to gay parents).

He's gathering strength, and has a rep as a fiscal conservative, which I agree that he's done a good job on that issue (despite my viewpoint on his other issues). He could poll strong

[JonInMiddleGA]

Romney was a strong 2nd in the straw poll behind the homestate Frist.. He's gathering strength, ... He could poll strong

I agree completely.

[Crapshoot]

Taking my obligatory chance to state that I think this is one of the few issues G.W. gotten right. I just wish he had done more than pay lip service to it.

Ditto.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I just wish he had done more than pay lip service to it.

If he had, he would have probably killed himself politically in some of his strongest states. We're talking about a guy who has a 67% approval rating in Georgia right now, but this was panned by pretty much everyone who likes him here. I don't there's any question that it would be viewed here as THE biggest misstep of his entire tenure, I can't recall anything else that made more people at the grass roots of his support angry/disappointed than this.

[stevew]

Romney may be a great guy and all, but his LDS connections will turn off a sizeable enough amount of the base that winning would be hard/nearly impossible. Unless the perception of the Mormons as a cult has radically changed over the last decade.

[st.cronin]

Jimga, at a certain level of civic awareness, you might be right. But ask a typical American what GWB's immigration policy is (particularly in a non-border state) and I think you get blank stares. The stem-cell thing is much more reviled by typical Americans, regardless of political affiliation, afaict.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Romney may be a great guy and all, but his LDS connections will turn off a sizeable enough amount of the base that winning would be hard/nearly impossible. Unless the perception of the Mormons as a cult has radically changed over the last decade.

Totally random observation here, I mean really unrelated (or is it?) ... Dale Murphy was pretty much beloved in Georgia & still is. I know that baseball & politics are two different animals but at the same time, if he was universally accepted in spite of it, in an area that it would seem likely there would be backlash ... well, it isn't entirely unthinkable that Romney could overcome this too.

(What he would have to sell is a separation between him personal religion & his political activism. If he wants to bust hell wide open when his time comes, that might be overlooked ultimately ... as long as he accomplished enough good on a national level otherwise.)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Jimga, at a certain level of civic awareness, you might be right. But ask a typical American what GWB's immigration policy is (particularly in a non-border state) and I think you get blank stares. The stem-cell thing is much more reviled by typical Americans, regardless of political affiliation, afaict.

We disagree completely I guess. I'd say his immigration stance has 10x the profile here that stem-cell does, and I really have a hard time believing that stem-cell stuff is even on the top 10 list of 5% of the voters in this country -- the same cannot be said for immigration.

[st.cronin]

We disagree completely I guess. I'd say his immigration stance has 10x the profile here that stem-cell does, and I really have a hard time believing that stem-cell stuff is even on the top 10 list of 5% of the voters in this country -- the same cannot be said for immigration.

troll:D

[st.cronin]

dola

my write-in vote for the poll is Phil Plantier. I know a lot of people don't like that +3 throwing arm, but that obp against right-handers is just unreal. Very few outs on that card.

[JonInMiddleGA]

troll:D

;)

(Although it probably does bear noting that I'm not dogging the issue if it's that important to somebody, I'm more relating that I simply haven't encountered really anyone outside of media coverage who gives a particular damn about it relative to a number of other things)

[Buccaneer]

I would vote for McCain as the libertarian-minded third-party candidate. Bill Owens would be the only red/blue candidate I would vote for. All the rest would be status quo.

[Bee]

So according to our polls it looks like McCain vs Hillary in 08....does anyone think this would be even close? I'd almost bet that McCain could win if only Democrats voted.

[JonInMiddleGA]

So according to our polls it looks like McCain vs Hillary in 08....does anyone think this would be even close?

McCain might be the one person that Hillary could beat, as he's the one person who would keep the GOP base at home. Hell, even I would have to take a pass or vote 3rd-party if he was the nominee (and you know my feelings for Hillary).

[Bee]

Hell, even I would have to take a pass or vote 3rd-party if he was the nominee (and you know my feelings for Hillary).

Well luckily for us, you're not the typical Republican. ;)

:D

[Ryche]

McCain would draw a huge number of people from the middle who would otherwise stay home and a lot of moderate Democrats. I think McCain and Guiliani would beat Hillary easily, Rice probably would as well. Romney and Huckabee would probably have a shot, the rest of the serious nominees would be seen as good old boy beltway conservatives.

[Glengoyne]

Well luckily for us, you're not the typical Republican. ;)

:D

nicely played. If McCain gets the nomination, I'd become a Republican in a second.

[GrantDawg]

McCain would draw a huge number of people from the middle who would otherwise stay home and a lot of moderate Democrats. I think McCain and Guiliani would beat Hillary easily, Rice probably would as well. Romney and Huckabee would probably have a shot, the rest of the serious nominees would be seen as good old boy beltway conservatives.

All true, but when was the last time a non-establishment candidate won the Republican nomination? Reagan? Until that happens, guys like McCain and Guiliani have no shot. Frist will probably be the candidate, and will win if Hillary takes the nomination. Against someone less polarizing, he'd have a slim chance.

[flere-imsaho]

In a McCain vs. Hillary battle, I'd give it to McCain, barring the emergence of an X factor (I'll get to that in a second).

Both go into the election with energized bases. McCain because the Republican base can be energized as anti-Hillary, Hillary because the Democratic machine can work things up and she has a ton of money to get things moving.

Both go into the election with other parts of their electorate sitting out. Staunch conservatives who aren't spurred by the anti-Hillary vote sit out. Disillusioned Democrats who don't like Hillary sit out.

I think McCain wins this one because a) the Republican base is better organized and b) the anti-Hillary factor gets a lot of people to vote for him only so she won't get elected (people who would stay home otherwise).

The X Factor is whether a Conservative runs as an Independent in reaction to McCain's nomination. In such a scenario McCain could end up losing enough votes to the right to not be able to overcome Hillary.

[Ryche]

McCain winning the nomination would be surprising to me, but so far he is doing what is needed and a lot of the pundits have him the favorite to win the nomination.

I think even if you had a 3rd party conservative, the hardcore right would see McCain as the lesser of two evils against Hillary. Against a less polarizing Democrat, I could see some conservatives shunning McCain.

I don't think Republican hatred of Hillary alone can beat her. They still need a good candidate. 2004 showed that didn't work with for the Democrats.

[King of New York]

All true, but when was the last time a non-establishment candidate won the Republican nomination? Reagan? Until that happens, guys like McCain and Guiliani have no shot. Frist will probably be the candidate, and will win if Hillary takes the nomination. Against someone less polarizing, he'd have a slim chance.
Under normal circusmstances, I would agree that "atypical" republicans such as McCain and Giuliani would have little hope against establishment insiders.

BUT: the president's approval rating is in the mid-30s right now. The Republican establishment has been hurt by the Abramoff scandal. Given these conditions, I bet that the Republicans will be savvy and flexibile enough to recognize that going with an "establishment" candidate is bad strategy. They'll embrace, with a hard swallow and a forced grin, someone who can position himself as something of an outsider: either McCain or, more likely (because he has not attacked or challenged W directly), Giuliani.

There won't be a third-party conservative challenger to either of those two, I think. Not with the examples of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan fresh in everyone's minds. Pat Robertson has nothing but nice things to say about Rudy Giuliani--that's not an accident.

[ISiddiqui]

I think McCain will get enough moderate and center-right votes to beat down any Democrat nominee, unless they change the Constitution to allow Bill Clinton to run again.

[Glengoyne]

All true, but when was the last time a non-establishment candidate won the Republican nomination? Reagan? Until that happens, guys like McCain and Guiliani have no shot. Frist will probably be the candidate, and will win if Hillary takes the nomination. Against someone less polarizing, he'd have a slim chance.

This I agree with. I will be stunned if McCain wins the nomination. I still remember the Republican political Machine grinding him up and spitting him out last time around. Guys like Rush and Hannity will be campaigning full time against the guy as well.

McCain wins the general election in a landslide. It would be a Reaganesque victory. The problem is, that he won't get out of the primaries. Some people can't see the forrest for the trees.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think emerging through the primaries on top of the heap will be an insurmountable task for McCain and company.

[Bee]

This I agree with. I will be stunned if McCain wins the nomination. I still remember the Republican political Machine grinding him up and spitting him out last time around. Guys like Rush and Hannity will be campaigning full time against the guy as well.

McCain wins the general election in a landslide. It would be a Reaganesque victory. The problem is, that he won't get out of the primaries. Some people can't see the forrest for the trees.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think emerging through the primaries on top of the heap will be an insurmountable task for McCain and company.

I completely agree (which scares me). ;)

[Glengoyne]

Under normal circusmstances, I would agree that "atypical" republicans such as McCain and Giuliani would have little hope against establishment insiders.

BUT: the president's approval rating is in the mid-30s right now. The Republican establishment has been hurt by the Abramoff scandal. Given these conditions, I bet that the Republicans will be savvy and flexibile enough to recognize that going with an "establishment" candidate is bad strategy. They'll embrace, with a hard swallow and a forced grin, someone who can position himself as something of an outsider: either McCain or, more likely (because he has not attacked or challenged W directly), Giuliani.

There won't be a third-party conservative challenger to either of those two, I think. Not with the examples of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan fresh in everyone's minds. Pat Robertson has nothing but nice things to say about Rudy Giuliani--that's not an accident.

I don't think the Republican political establishment can really be considered savvy with regard to this particular issue. Look at what they did to McCain in 2000. They had one candidate that would cruise through the general election almost without opposition, and one that might actually eke out a victory. We know which road they took, and with the disdain they showed McCain, I just don't them changing that much in 2008.

[st.cronin]

I don't think the Republican political establishment can really be considered savvy with regard to this particular issue. Look at what they did to McCain in 2000. They had one candidate that would cruise through the general election almost without opposition, and one that might actually eke out a victory. We know which road they took, and with the disdain they showed McCain, I just don't them changing that much in 2008.

They won, didn't they? Hard to fault their strategy in that case.

[GrantDawg]

I bet that the Republicans will be savvy and flexibile enough


You lost me right there. Conservatives are conservatives for a reason. They can spin, they can trick, but they will not bend. McCain doesn't play well with others. He is not controllable by the power-brokers. They want someone they can have their thumb on, and there is no way they are giving hundreds of millions of dollars to McCain for him to screw them once he is in office. Guiliani is a better bet, but that almost guarantees the party splits (without the religious right, the Republicans have no shot, and the religious right would split off in a second if a pro-choice candidate won the nom).

The more I think on it, the more I think Frist is a shoe-in.

[MalcPow]

McCain winning an election against Hillary is pretty darn likely. He could probably beat her in a number of Democratic primaries, and his election as a Republican would probably be a crippling blow to a Democratic party that has been lacking a unifying vision and has become more and more an incoherent collection of disparate groups following frustrations with lost campaigns and political outmaneuvering. The problem is, a lot of conservatives see a McCain presidency as a crippling blow to the Republican party, and that his centrism would dilute entirely whatever it might mean to be a Republican anyway. His biggest hurdle is going to be winning the nomination, and it will be very difficult for him to do that. He's also going to have problems because he won't get the nice lift of bandwagon support that a lot of candidates who start well end up getting. A lot of party support will hold off until it looks like there's no one else for the reason mentioned above. He also has the most to lose in New Hampshire because his established popularity there means that anything other than a very convincing victory there will be spun as a slip-up. If a couple people fall down he could get it, but otherwise, it will be tough.

[st.cronin]

McCain should just run as a 3rd party candidate, a la Perot. He'd probably win, and have many fewer headaches along the way.

[GrantDawg]

McCain should just run as a 3rd party candidate, a la Perot. He'd probably win, and have many fewer headaches along the way.


He'd get more votes than Perot, but I wonder if he could win.

[MalcPow]

McCain should just run as a 3rd party candidate, a la Perot. He'd probably win, and have many fewer headaches along the way.

If he were a billionaire a la Perot he probably would. :D

[JonInMiddleGA]

a lot of conservatives see a McCain presidency as a crippling blow to the Republican party

DingDingDing.

and that his centrism would dilute entirely whatever it might mean to be a Republican anyway.

The phrase "what's the point?" sums it up very nicely I think.

Pretty good analysis there MalcPow, IMO anyway.

[Ryche]

Under normal circusmstances, I would agree that "atypical" republicans such as McCain and Giuliani would have little hope against establishment insiders.

BUT: the president's approval rating is in the mid-30s right now. The Republican establishment has been hurt by the Abramoff scandal. Given these conditions, I bet that the Republicans will be savvy and flexibile enough to recognize that going with an "establishment" candidate is bad strategy. They'll embrace, with a hard swallow and a forced grin, someone who can position himself as something of an outsider: either McCain or, more likely (because he has not attacked or challenged W directly), Giuliani.

There won't be a third-party conservative challenger to either of those two, I think. Not with the examples of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan fresh in everyone's minds. Pat Robertson has nothing but nice things to say about Rudy Giuliani--that's not an accident.

I really hope this is the way it turns out. Knowing as many Republican party hacks as I do though, there are far too many who would rather support a hardcore conservative and get 40% of the vote than support someone more moderate who can win easily.

The midterm elections could go a long way in determining what direction the Republicans take. If they serious losses in Congress, they may be desperate enough to give McCain a chance.

[ISiddiqui]

He'd get more votes than Perot, but I wonder if he could win.

He'd probably have the best shot since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 of a 3rd party candidate winning the general election. Probably in that case, he'd just prevent a candidate from getting 270 electoral votes and sending it to a straight party line Congressional vote.

[flere-imsaho]

Bill Frist has pulled ahead of Trout Bush. :)

[Glengoyne]

They won, didn't they? Hard to fault their strategy in that case.

two words

Photo Finish


They had a sure thing Republican President, but he wasn't in the mold they desired.

[Grammaticus]

two words

Photo Finish


They had a sure thing Republican President, but he wasn't in the mold they desired.
True, but they still got a higher percentage of the popular vote than slick willey ever got. The best democratic president in the last 50 years won the same type of photo finish in 1960. A win is a win.

[flere-imsaho]

True, but they still got a higher percentage of the popular vote than slick willey ever got. The best democratic president in the last 50 years won the same type of photo finish in 1960. A win is a win.

:rolleyes:

I'll add you to the list of people on this board whose outrageous lies I've had to correct with, you know, actual facts. To whit, Clinton in 1996 got a higher percentage of the popular vote than Bush in 2000 (not to mention that Gore in 2000 did as well, lol.)

Popular Vote Percentages:

Bush 2004: 50.73%
Bush 2000: 47.87% (Gore: 48.38%)
Clinton 1996: 49.23%
Clinton 1992: 43.01%
Bush 1988: 53.37%
Reagan 1984: 58.77%
Reagan 1980: 50.75%
Carter 1976: 50.08%
Nixon 1972: 60.67%
Nixon 1968: 43.42%
LBJ 1964: 61.05%
Kennedy 1960: 49.72%