Werewolf XXXIII: Animal Farm (SEE POST #4 FOR ALL UPDATES)

[Chubby]

I've never said they took the night off, I think the only kill was a Pilkington kill last night.

I'd love to see the seers communicate with Swaggs so we could clear more people. I think we're very close to winning with 3 baddies killed.

Off to work, be back around 11pm EST :(

[hoopsguy]

Grey, that has been my opinion. There has only been one kill per night. If there had been two attacks then I would have either blocked one or we would have had two deaths if both succeeded.

I'm frustrated that I have not been successful in getting a block so far this game. I realize that this will likely lead people to question my claims of being the bodyguard and there is not a lot that I can do to refute those claims. If/when I am successful in getting a block, then this will no longer be an issue but the longer it takes for me to get to the point, the more suspicious I look.

[hoopsguy]

We have an extended period today so I'm hopeful that we will see some information emerge.

I'm really, really surprised that Swaggs has been left alive this long. He is the natural target for the "dead seers" to PM with information. That information, or a seer reveal, could really open this game up. Because right now I feel like we are making a ton of assumptions, and several of them are going to be wrong.

[hoopsguy]

Here is the data I'm looking at right now, trying to understand what it could mean:

1.) We have seen rules updated on the lynchings of Cronin and Bek. We have not seen updates on the lynchings of Bullet, BrianD, and GoldenEagle.
2.) We have seen messages with the night kills of Saldana, Anxiety, and Grammaticus. We have not seen messages with Lathum or Blade.
3.) Lathum and Blade died on Night 2 and Night 5 - the nights that would make sense for Pilkington to kill. Assuming he was in place to do so, he had a 90% chance of success on his first attempt and a 50% chance of success on his second.
4.) There have been no nights with multiple kills.
5.) Pilkington and the Revolutionaries cannot PM each other.
6.) Pilkington and the Revolutionaries win when they get to a 1:1 ratio - instinctively, I would expect them to kill at every opportunity they get.

[hoopsguy]

So, here are the questions:
1.) Why, if Pilkington is alive, have we not seen multiple kills on any evening?
2.) What do the changes in the Rules imply after a lynch?
3.) What do the night kills without a message from the Revolutionaries mean?

[Passacaglia]

I gotta agree with hoops. I mean, I can't imagine the Revs are sitting there thinking that they should skip a kill on nights 2 and 5 to make us believe that Pilkington is dead just to confuse us more. We're plenty confused as it is, so they might as well start blasting.

[hoopsguy]

1. Anxiety - killed Night 3, message left by Revolutionaries
2. Greyroofoo -
3. Swaggs - turned vote on Day 1, near 100% that makes him Benjamin
4. Chubby - claims to be simple villager, wants ties on votes
5. Alan T - claims to be simple villager
6. BrianD - lynched Night 4, no rules changes, invoked tie-breaker Day 3 (on Bek)
7. RealDeal -
8. GoldenEagle - claims to be simple villager, won tie-breaker Day 5
9. Blade6119 - night kill night 5
10. ardent enthusiast/Fouts - claims to be simple villager
11. Dodgerchick -
12. saldana - killed Night 1, message left by Revolutionaries
13. st. cronin - duked by Cronin Day 1, rules updated
14. hoopsguy - claims to be bodyguard, no blocks in 1st five nights
15. Grammaticus - killed Night 4, no message left by Revolutionaries
16. Passacaglia -
17. Conflaguration/Thomkal -
18. Lathum - killed Night 2, no message left by Revolutionaries
19. Bek - lynched Day 3 (lost tie-breaker), rules updated
20. bulletsponge - lynched Day 2, no rules updated

[hoopsguy]

Please help me update the above list with claims people have made, including any facts that will make this more useful for everyone.

Depending on what assumptions you make, we could be doing really well (three good lynches out of five?) or we could be on the brink of losing the game.

[hoopsguy]

Updates to list above:
7. RealDeal - lynched Day 5 (lost tie-breaker)

[Greyroofoo]

I really don't know why the wolves would attack swaggs, with his duke ability expended, he is really nothing more than a common villager now.

If I was a wolf, I'd hit someone else hoping s/he was a seer.

[hoopsguy]

We have had three ties - Days 1, 3, and 5.

BrianD claimed the tie-breaker on Day 3. We still have not heard anyone claim it for Days 1 or 5.

[hoopsguy]

Well, given that I have protected Swaggs two times (Days 2 and 4) I can give you the reasons I think a wolf would attack Swaggs:

1. He is a known good in the game, no one else is
2. As such, he is a natural target for the "dead seers" to PM with information
3. As the number of players shrink, the importance of #1 above increases. On Day 2, when there were 18 players, he was 5.5% of the overall potential vote. Today, on Day 6, with 10 players, he is 10% of the overall potential vote. He also will not attract votes, meaning that the wolves have less people to provide cover for them. With each passing day, the value of that known good magnifies.

Let me know if I'm not doing a good job of explaining that concept, that the value of the known good increases as we get later in the game.

[Swaggs]

I think Clover and Moses must be dead.

I hope the seer is still alive.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, if we assume we are going to have to go it alone then what are your thoughts on the messages we have been receiving - lynch and the night kill?

[Blade6119]

Good Luck Everyone, was fun playing you all

[Lorena]

Well, it's disappointing to see Blade get killed, I'm sure it's some sort of relief for him since he didn't seem to be enjoying himself :(

I doubt I'll be around much this weekend as it seems a few people are dominating the conversation... I have nothing to add:

Vote Greyroofoo

I was considering GE heavily, but I will stick with the person I really think is a wolf. You guys know how I feel about it.

[Greyroofoo]

wow, dodgerchick has it in for me

[Lorena]

wow, dodgerchick has it in for me

Yup, unless you prove otherwise

[Lorena]

*sigh*

I say I leave and I keep getting sucked in.

After GE and Chubby's strange actions yesterday, I couldn't help to think that they might be aligned... good or evil so I looked at their voting history:

GE's voting history:
Day 1 - voted for me, unvoted and ended up not placing a vote
Day 2 - bulletsponge
Day 3 - Greyroofoo
Day 4 - BrianD (actually voted past the deadline and claimed he forgot)
Day 5 - realdeal

Chubby:
Day 1 - bulletsponge
Day 2 - bulletsponge
Day 3 - greyroofoo
Day 4 - hoopsguy
Day 5 - realdeal

3/5 votes for the same people, twice GE forgot: once I think he was sick and the other he forgot because of the misunderstanding in the deadline.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[Lorena]

**crickets**

[Fouts]

I'll be out doing birthday stuff, so I'm going to get my vote in on the most suspicious player to me. For info, look back at my voting history post a couple pages back.

vote grey

[hoopsguy]

DC, based on your voting history lineup between GE and Chubby, here are the results:

Day 1 - neither is on a vote leader
Day 2 - both vote Bullet, who is lynched. Rules don't change
Day 3 - both vote for Grey, who is tied for lead. Bek is lynched, rules don't change
Day 4 - Chubby votes for me early, isn't back after my reveal. GE has very late vote for BrianD, who is lynched, rules don't change
Day 5 - both vote for RealDeal, who is lynched. Rules don't change

If you buy into the notion that no rules changes on lynch = bad guy lynch, then both of these guys have very strong voting records, both together and separately.

If you don't buy into this notion, then I'm not sure what to make of this but it definitely is not as promising.

More to follow in next post ...

[hoopsguy]

Theory #1: lynch + no rules changes = bad guy lynch
- what constitutes a bad guy? I would assume a Revolutionary, Pilkington, and Squealer. How about the Sympathizer?
Theory #2: night kill without note = Pilkington
- why the heck would the Revolutionaries not attempt a kill on Nights 2 and 5?

If you combine both of these theories, then we saw a bad guy death on three of our lynches: Day 2 (Bullet), Day 4 (BrianD), Day 5 (RealDeal). But none of these deaths were Pilkington, since he was responsible for kills on Nights 2 and 5. But the Revolutionaries, who are already losing numbers, did not kill on Night 5.

I'm going to go find the post #, but I recall Path posting that the Revolutionaries kill before Pilkington in the night actions. So there is no way that Pilkington could have deprived the Revolutionaries of their kill by them both targeting the same person.

CURRENT POSITION:
I can't buy this overall scenario - it just does not add up for me. I wish it did, as it suggests that we are doing pretty well at taking out bad guys with very limited information. And that there is more information for us to extract from voting patterns, with Revolutionaries protecting each other.

So I don't accept that BOTH of these theories are correct. Which is where I'm stuck on how to proceed today. If people do think that BOTH theories are correct, then please respond to this post and I'll try to work out some scenarios following the aforementioned train of thought.

If you agree with my current position, then chime in on what (if either) of the two theories you think is correct.

Also, still looking for feedback on my player chart in Post #1757. What information am I missing in my player summaries that should be considered?

[hoopsguy]

Happy birthday, Fouts!

[Thomkal]

Okay hoops, here's my Pilkington theories.

Theory #1-St. Cronin was Pilkington and was "duked" by Swaggs on Day 1.

-The odds are very long on this theory, but would explain why there was only one kill on nights 2 and 5 which should be the only nights he can use his kill power (am I correct there?)

1a) Saldana or Bullet was Pilkington, and got killed before he could use his power.

-Again long odds against this, but possible. I would have thought by now if either were Pilkington they would have tried to "signal" the wolves to his identity so they wouldn't kill him by accident.

2) Pilkerton was not one of the early kills and chose not to use his power on Day 2 because he/she was unsure of who the wolves were and wanted to wait until he/she felt more confident, perhaps hoping the seers would reveal some information that would help. He/she then used their attack on Day 5, and had very bad luck the die roll.

2a) Pilkerton chose not to use his attack on Night 2, and was killed or lynched by the time Night 5 came around.

-Again its likely the wolves know who Pilkerton is by Night 5, so likely would work to not get him/her lynched and wouldn't kill him of course. 90% chance of success would make him one very unlucky Pilkerton if he missed on Night 5.

3) The Night Kill on Night 2 and/or possibly Night 5 were Pilkerton's kills and the wolves in a gutsy, risky strategy chose not to attack to created an added level of confusion as the poor barnyard animals try to figure out what the heck happened.

-I could see the wolves doing this on Night 2, but you would have thought Pilkerton would go after the supposedly bodyguarded Swaggs. Night 5 seems much more riskier due to the reduced chance of success if he used the power on Night 2. Or maybe it was the wolves kill on Night 2, and they held off on Night 5 knowing Pilkerton would use his power then.

4) Pilkerton has had horrible luck and missed both kills on Night 2 and 5.

-Again long odds against this, but possible, and yeah for us barnyard animals if it happened.

Which one do I think happened? 2 or 3 seems the most likely if I've got my head straight about how Pilkerton works. But honestly with no role reveals, I'm not sure its worth worrying anymore about him.

[hoopsguy]

Thomkal, a couple of thoughts:

- the kills on Night 2 and Night 5 did not contain messages. The kills on Nights 1,3, and 4 did. Night 2 and Night 5 (90% and 50%) are the nights that line up with Pilkington if he is in the game.
- If Pilkington was not available for Night 2, then he could have been Cronin (duked by Swaggs, rules updated), Saldana (killed by wolves), Bullet (Night 2 lynch, no rules update), or even Lathum (killed by wolves, but not "autotgraphed").
- If you accept that Pilkington is alive, and that the lynch flavor indicated a good or bad lynch, then Bullet was a bad guy but not Pilkington. That would make him a Revolutionary or the Squealer.

One more thought I had (NEW IDEA HERE!!!)- perhaps the rules are no longer being updated because we got the Squealer? Wikipedia suggests that the Squealer updates the rules. We haven't seen a rules update since the Day 3 lynch. So it is possible that we (or they) tagged the Squealer, removing this mechanic from the game. Of course, if this proves true then we don't have as much information on the Day 4/5 lynches.

If we have another day tomorrow where we don't see the rules updated on lynch then I'll lean more towards accepting this idea. Given our lack of information, I'm going to have a hard time swallowing that we got three straight good lynches.

[hoopsguy]

Also, it is worth worrying about him because if we have not killed him, but have information on the quality of the lynches (at least Day 2) then we may have worthwhile voting patterns from that day.

Finally, he still has a 50% chance for a kill on Night 8 if he is around.

[Passacaglia]

The Squealer idea is a good one, hoops.

What about Minimus? Does anyone seem to have changed their game drastically at some point, maybe after the first rev was killed? I'm looking at Chubby for that one.

It would suck if both Clover and Moses were dead. If one died, there's a 75% chance that the other received all that info. You'd think that if one died, and we hit that 75%, the other would have chimed in loudly. Although, I wonder -- what good does a bunch of night kill info do for us? Whether they're good or evil, anyone killed at night is not communicating with the Revs.

[hoopsguy]

The night kill information lets us know roles. The bad guys do not all know each other, so there is plenty of room for an inadvertant kill.

Pilkington - knows one Revolutionary at the outset. This also means he will not know the Sympathizer when they are activated.

Revolutionaries - know each other, not Sympathizer, Squealer, or Pilkington.

After five night kills, it is becoming more likely that there has been a "bad luck" night kill for the forces of evil.

[hoopsguy]

I'm trying to figure out what kind of player would be holding onto information as either of the night seers or the true seer at this point in the game. We have lost half of our players, so from a pure math perspective the chances are 1/8 (12.5%) that all of those roles are dead. A little higher if you take the known roles (I consider Swaggs and I in that category, but mileage may vary for other players on these assumptions) being alive into account.

On another note, I really want to talk to Chubby during this day cycle about his confidence level in the Lynch/Night messages.

Post #1751 by Chubby:
I'd love to see the seers communicate with Swaggs so we could clear more people. I think we're very close to winning with 3 baddies killed.


I want this to be true, but I'm inclined to play against a worst-case scenario without any information.

[hoopsguy]

There have been a couple of questions PM'd to me regarding the order in which night actions are performed. Basically it comes down like this:

Views are resolved
Bodyguard is assigned
Revolutionary kill
Pilkington kill

Hope that helps clarify. Out for a bit, let me know if there are questions about this.

This is Post #577 from Path. This took place after Day #2. I know that I was one of the people who posed this question to Path, but he states that there were "a couple of questions".

Inductive leap ... anyone think that the Revolutionaries might have posed this question as well, expecting to see two kills for Night #2?

[hoopsguy]

Dola - this took place early in Day #3. Post #529 was the Night 2 kill (Lathum).

Post #529 at 8:23 AM (using CST again, it is how all of my stuff is listed)
Post #577 was at 1:44 PM

[Greyroofoo]

from the pure fact that there hasn't been 2 night kills, I believe that pilkerton is dead

[hoopsguy]

Grey, since you are around and it is a little early for the Ping: Drunk Guy :)

I've shied away from voting for you the last couple of days because I was thinking you might be the seer. You warned Blade and I that we should back away from each other earlier in the game - the type of message that I thought might be a seer talking to two people he cleared.

But I also think that other people may have picked up on this ... I know Blade and I have both danced around this in the thread. Yet you are still alive on Day 6 and I have not yet spent a night protecting you. So the longer you live, the more inclined I am to think you were making a play as a wolf with information instead of seer or harmless villager with strong impressions.

I'm past the point in this game of trying to protect players during the Day phases. I'm desperate for information on the structure of this game so we can make semi-informed decisions as we start moving towards end game. If you can clear people, I would love to hear what you have to offer. If you aren't the seer, coming strong with your views on the game would be very helpful in steering people away from voting you.

You've already won a tie-breaker. I'm not sure it is going to be a tie this time around without some give on your part today or tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Grey, if Pilkington is in fact dead do you have any thoughts on the lack of messages on Nights 2 and 5, compared to Nights 1 and 4? I'm full of theories, most of which I post, but I suspect many of them are flawed and the product of an overly active imagination coupled with a Werewolf obsession and a healthy dose of paranoia.

[Greyroofoo]

don't worry, with 4 long island iced-teas in me, it probably won't be long until i make some posts in the ping: drunk guy thread

immediately followed by posts in the weight lost dynasty about how I blew my weekend

[hoopsguy]

Working on some Sierra Nevada Summerfest here, but have yet to dip my toe in the water on either of those two threads.

[Fouts]

Ok, just got back from picking up some Seinfield cd sets (19.99 each for seasons 4 and 5 at Best Buy).

It was the first time I have seen that post #577, which suggests to me that the Revolutionaries and Pilkington picked the same target. Does this line up time wise? (were they both able to attempt a kill?)

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, it is possible they both picked Lathum on Night 2, although the odds are pretty remote.

Day 1 lynch, Night 1 kill, Day 2 kill = 17 players
Pilkington knows himself and one revolutionary = 15 players to choose from
Revolutionaries know each other and Sympathizer = 13-14 players to choose from

Odds of them choosing the same player = 1 in 13 or 1 in 14.
Two people are protected each night - Night 2 it was me and Swaggs.
So they had to both select the same person, and it could not have been me or Swaggs.

Possible? Absolutely. Likely? Not mathematically, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen.

[Greyroofoo]

screw it, i'm drunk, and I probably won't last another night

I am either clover/moses

squealer and pilkington are both dead

[Fouts]

screw it, i'm drunk, and I probably won't last another night

I am either clover/moses

squealer and pilkington are both dead

Well, well. Who was who. You need to define each person.

[hoopsguy]

Grey, have a couple of questions for you to answer, either tonight or when you are sober:

1. Why didn't you ever PM anyone up to this point?
2. What day/night did Pilkington die?

Have more than that, but lets start off with some of the easier ones.

[Greyroofoo]

1. I can only pm once, I wanted to have as much information as possible
2. 2

[Fouts]

1. I can only pm once, I wanted to have as much information as possible
2. 2

Why would moses/clover reveal before using his pm ability? Why would moses/clover say I am moses/clover? What is the purpose of not picking one?

The only purpose I can think of is that one of them are still alive and he doesn't want to pick the wrong one.

[Chubby]

Why is grey saying he's "either clover/moses"?

Why not say who he is and PM Swaggs with his info???

I'm confused on that post.



Anywho, I had the tiebreak on RealDeal, my vote counted twice hence I knew RealDeal was toast no matter what, I was hoping for RD or GE to post something useful for the farm but they didnt.

[Thomkal]

A question and a couple comments before heading off to bed.

1)Hoops can you post that bit from the Wiki that suggests Squealer is the one behind the rules?

2)The messages from the night kills could mean absolutely nothing. Path may be letting the wolves submit a message with their kills if they so choose. The might have chosen not to have a message on Night 2 and 5. Not sure if I agree with this or not, but thought I'd throw it out there.

3)Nice spot Hoops on the bit from Path about multiple questions about the timing of Pilkerton's action.

4) I have to reverse my course on the importance of Pilkerton. I just reread the victory conditions, and he counts towards the revolutionaries.

5) Fouts, if they both had the same target on Night 2, that would be Lathum, which seems an odd choice given the possibility of Swaggs getting Clover/Moses info.

[Thomkal]

of course I post all that and come back to a potential clover/moses reveal. :)

[hoopsguy]

Thomkal, here you go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Orwell/Animal_Farm


The pigs rewrite history in a way that villainizes Snowball and glorifies Napoleon even further. Each step of this development is justified by the pig Squealer, who on several occasions alters the Seven Commandments on the barn in the dead of night — for example, "No animal shall drink alcohol" becomes "No animal shall drink alcohol to excess."

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I agree with you on the "either/or" aspect of this allowing greater flexibility for a fake reveal. But I'm inclined to play this out and see where it goes for now.

With Pilkington dead on Night 2 that means that he was not able to attempt any of his kills. Grey, do you have any thoughts on why we might have seen different messages on Nights 2 and 5 - no message from the revolutionaries accompanying the bodies?

[Greyroofoo]

Why would moses/clover reveal before using his pm ability? Why would moses/clover say I am moses/clover? What is the purpose of not picking one?

The only purpose I can think of is that one of them are still alive and he doesn't want to pick the wrong one.

i reveal because I really don't think I can survive the next day/night and I want to hopefully throw out some wrong theories

[hoopsguy]

Grey, just to clarify on the dead - no Revolutionaries dead so far?

[Greyroofoo]

i can and will pm swaggs this night if any of you think I am lying

[Greyroofoo]

Grey, just to clarify on the dead - no Revolutionaries dead so far?

none that I know if :(

[hoopsguy]

Grey, you can absolutely validate your status by establishing PM contact with someone during the next night action. At that point you become 100% cleared. I would recommend that you submit a conditional order, with Swaggs being either your primary or secondary selection. But have two people listed, as Path stated that you have to PM on the day you choose to go that route and that you are not denied the ability to do so based on your target dying.

[Fouts]

Grey, since you are around and it is a little early for the Ping: Drunk Guy :)



Hoops, can you explain how you connected Grey to the Ping: Drunk Guy thread before he mentioned he was drinking?

[Greyroofoo]

i am probably the leading poster in the ping:drunk guy thread after amdaily

[Fouts]

Also, there is no harm in stating which of moses or clover you are, at this point. Please choose one Grey.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, Grey has it exactly right :) Although I have yet to participate in that thread I do read it from time to time and that is where I know Grey from prior to seeing him in Werewolf games.

[Fouts]

Also, there is no harm in stating which of moses or clover you are, at this point. Please choose one Grey.

Oh, and choose wisely, my friend.

[Greyroofoo]

Oh, and choose wisely, my friend.

i'll tell you what, if hoopsguy agrees that I should reveal, then I should tell you which one I am

[hoopsguy]

I've been stewing on the Moses/Clover aspect of this and trying to think about pros/cons of clarifying:

1.) Clarification means we can discuss people cycle by cycle, rather than "one of two" like we have to right now
2.) Clarification makes it less likely that there is a fake reveal - someone could emerge to challenge if he picks one
3.) Chances for a fake "challenge" increase if he specifies the role. Assuming he is telling the truth, we have no Revolutionaries in the 5+ roles he knows. They may want to try going 1:1 with one of the seers at this stage in the game if they have 2+ Revolutionaries and the Sympathizer still around.

[hoopsguy]

Grey, what day/night did the Squealer die?

[Fouts]

i'll tell you what, if hoopsguy agrees that I should reveal, then I should tell you which one I am

Hoops, do us a favor and push the button that makes him talk.

[Greyroofoo]

so yea or nay?

[hoopsguy]

LOL, I think it involves mentioning what alcohol you are drinking - helps with bonding :)

[Greyroofoo]

i have some cheap long island iced tea mix.

Almost as cheap as the "Military Special" brands

[hoopsguy]

Grey, I'll say go ahead with it.

Your information should help you avoid a lynch today.
You send a PM to Swaggs and (insert conditional selection) tonight
I protect you this evening

If you are bluffing you may get challenged during this day cycle.
If you are bluffing and go unchallenged, I will waste a guard on you but no one will have a PM from you and we then have an easy decision tomorrow.

[Fouts]

I've been stewing on the Moses/Clover aspect of this and trying to think about pros/cons of clarifying:

1.) Clarification means we can discuss people cycle by cycle, rather than "one of two" like we have to right now
2.) Clarification makes it less likely that there is a fake reveal - someone could emerge to challenge if he picks one
3.) Chances for a fake "challenge" increase if he specifies the role. Assuming he is telling the truth, we have no Revolutionaries in the 5+ roles he knows. They may want to try going 1:1 with one of the seers at this stage in the game if they have 2+ Revolutionaries and the Sympathizer still around.

C'mon, seriously. If he is one of moses/clover, and he has exposed himself, then there is no reason he should not reveal everything he knows. His going to you for permission really makes you look like the ringleader.

Where is blade when you need him? He would be all over this.

[Greyroofoo]

i am moses then

Lathum was Mr. Pilkington
Grammaticus was squealer

also, do you know if I get a message that you are protecting me?

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I'm 90% agreeing with you. I've been trying to think of reasons where we would be putting him at risk as a good guy by forcing a more specific reveal.

The question I'm dying to know is if he has both sets of information at this point (other role dead, hit his 75% role to get the info). But I'm not pushing on that yet as it gives information to the other side as well. Right now I'm willing to work with the information he feels like sharing and see how that fits with the facts as I understand them.

We've got almost 24 hours between now and lynch, so there is time to chew on the right way to go with this.

[Greyroofoo]

as you can see, the wolves have done some of the dirty work for us :)

[hoopsguy]

also, do you know if I get a message that you are protecting me?

Grey, Swaggs could answer that question as I have protected him twice so far this game.

[Fouts]

i am moses then

Lathum was Mr. Pilkington
Grammaticus was squealer

also, do you know if I get a message that you are protecting me?

All 5 nights please.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, lets think about all five nights. Do we want him to reveal that the Seer is dead, for example?

He should absolutely come forward with information like "Swaggs is not Benjamin" or "Hoops is not Boxer". But I'm not sure I want him putting out information that our roles are dead without us collectively thinking it through.

[hoopsguy]

Grey, can we safely assume that the kills on Nights 1, 3, and 5 did not involve killing their allies?

I'm trying to understand why there would be different information posted on Night 2 and Night 5 than the other three nights. It does not match up with the nights that they killed their allies, which shoots down one theory.

[hoopsguy]

Since Gram was the kill Night 4, as Squealer he could have updated the rules on Day 4.

We know he updated rules on Days 1 (Cronin) and 3 (Bek) , but not on Days 2 (Bullet) and 4 (BrianD).

If we indeed got Revolutionaries with those lynches then we are in very good shape right now. But as of right now we still do not have information to confirm/deny the meaning (if any) behind the 7 Rules updates.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum cast a critical vote on Day 2, when Bullet was up for lynch against GoldenEagle. If he was Pilkington then he knew the identity of one Revolutionary. Going hunting for post #'s.

[Thomkal]

And Lathum thought he might die as the result of that vote. Makes little sense why he would put himself in danger of being killed by the wolves if he was Pilkerton.

Alright this time I really am off to bed. :) See ya in the morning.

[hoopsguy]

Post #440 by Lathum, 3 minutes before deadline:
unvote realdeal
vote bulletsponge

Post #443 by RealDeal, 2 minutes before deadline:
unvote GE
vote bullet

Post #445 by Lathum, 5 minutes after deadline:

Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by BrianD http://fof.sportplanet.gamespy.com//forums/images/styles/sideline/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://fof.sportplanet.gamespy.com//forums/showthread.php?p=1245423#post1245423)
Was that a coordinated shift, or two people that didn't want to deal with a tie?
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

http://fof.sportplanet.gamespy.com//forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif



the only way it could be coordinated is if we were both wolves with communication abilities and that would be the worst play in the history of werewolf.

Most of the conversation, up to the results are announced at Post #467, are kind of interesting looking at the exchanges between people who are dead now.

[hoopsguy]

So if we believe Grey, then the Revolutionaries killed all of their allies that they did not know in the first four days.

Chubby, are you buying the Grey role reveal? Because it seems to conflict pretty strongly with your stance that Pilkington was completing kills on Nights 2 and 5.

Of course, I was suggesting that Bullet was Pilkington based on the results of the Day 2 lynch (Bullet), not the Night 2 kill (Lathum) ...

[hoopsguy]

I'm heading to bed now as well.

If Clover is still alive, and we have actually gotten Revolutionaries on Day 2 and 4, then I would urge them to come forward. I would have to believe with four bad guy kills that we are on the verge of winning this game.

If the seer is still alive and can clear 3+ people who are still alive, or burn a Revolutionary, I would urge them to come forward.

And, obviously, if someone can contradict the events posted by Greyroofoo then they almost have to come forward at this time. Otherwise, we (well, at least I) will accept his events as fact.

[Thomkal]

Yes I'm especially interested in what Chubby has to say since according to him we've killed three evils already....

[Chubby]

i buy his role reveal if Swaggs gets a PM from him.


I see no point in saying your either clover or moses. Why wouldn't someone just pick one? It smells fake to me. He's already put a target on his back if in fact he is good so keeping the specific role secret does no good but create suspicion.

I could buy the Squealer being dead = no more rule changes.

Whoever the seers are need to PM Swaggs with their findings and he can publish them, there really wasn't a "need" for grey to come out when he did...

[Chubby]

Until he clears himself I have no choice but to...

vote greyroofoo

if he's cleared before I leave for work I can switch my vote, otherwise it won't be til I get home at around 8pm EST

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, the way I understand it Grey would submit a night action that he wants to be able to PM someone the next day - it isn't something that he can just start doing now. So while I wish that he had initiated this action earlier on, I'm pretty sure that if we lynch him today we won't have a chance to clear him via the PM route.

If you don't believe him, then the vote makes perfect sense. But I don't see how he is 100% cleared today unless he sent his PM during Night 5 (or earlier) and neither he nor the target have shared that info yet.

[Passacaglia]

Fouts, I'm 90% agreeing with you. I've been trying to think of reasons where we would be putting him at risk as a good guy by forcing a more specific reveal.

The question I'm dying to know is if he has both sets of information at this point (other role dead, hit his 75% role to get the info). But I'm not pushing on that yet as it gives information to the other side as well. Right now I'm willing to work with the information he feels like sharing and see how that fits with the facts as I understand them.

We've got almost 24 hours between now and lynch, so there is time to chew on the right way to go with this.

I buy the reveal.

1. Maybe it's a ploy, but he seemed too drunk to be clever enough to fake it.

2. From other posts last night, it sounds like Clover is alive, so no need to worry about the 75%.

[hoopsguy]

Also, the need to come out is to avoid dying today without releasing his info.

He already had the first two votes today. I posted that I was looking hard at voting for him because I thought he was either "roled villager" or "wolf" and the longer he survived the night kills the more I was leaning towards the latter.

Since revealing you put the 3rd vote on him. So he is now holding a 3-0 lead.

I'm not going to vote for him today. I hope we are not in end-game mode at this point - we definitely are not if Grey is telling the truth and we correctly interpreted the 7 Rules Change stuff for Day 2/4 lynches. So I'll wait until tomorrow to lynch if there is no PM.

[Passacaglia]

I'm not voting for him, either. At this point, giving him another day is no big gamble.

Vote GoldenEagle

Maybe his meanderings were due to drunkenness as well, but they were more backtracking than just weird, and that seems wolfish.

[Chubby]

Does anyone have an explanation for why he would not just say who he was but instead say "i'm moses/clover"?

[Passacaglia]

Does anyone have an explanation for why he would not just say who he was but instead say "i'm moses/clover"?

Maybe he wants the other to out themselves?

[Greyroofoo]

vote chubby

[Greyroofoo]

I would like to say, that unlike anyone else, I can verify who I am. I will do so tonight.

[Chubby]

I would like to say, that unlike anyone else, I can verify who I am. I will do so tonight.


This is what I don't get.

Why come out today and reveal when you can't prove it til tomorrow. You've painted a giant bullseye on yourself. Clearly your going to be guarded tonight if you weren't last night...

There's no way you will be cleared tomorrow. It's impossible since you "revealed" for no reason "today" (day cycle).

By coming out when you did you've doomed Swaggs who will most likely get killed tonight, eliminating your chance to be cleared. I'm certainly sticking with my vote for now. I'll be home from work around 8pm EST.

[Thomkal]

vote chubby

Sorry not buying it Chubby. You were so certain that you knew who the bad guys were that I voted with you on Real Deal last turn. Now someone has stepped forward with a Moses claim that Real Deal was not a bad guy and you want to vote him out before it can be verified? Not a very barnyard animal kind of mindset.

[Thomkal]

Grey,

I'd like to know why you didn't come out with this information with the last vote when you could have saved Real Deal?

[Passacaglia]

vote chubby

Sorry not buying it Chubby. You were so certain that you knew who the bad guys were that I voted with you on Real Deal last turn. Now someone has stepped forward with a Moses claim that Real Deal was not a bad guy and you want to vote him out before it can be verified? Not a very barnyard animal kind of mindset.

When did grey say RealDeal was not bad?

[Thomkal]

Forget the last post, you wouldn't have known.

[Greyroofoo]

This is what I don't get.

Why come out today and reveal when you can't prove it til tomorrow. You've painted a giant bullseye on yourself. Clearly your going to be guarded tonight if you weren't last night...

There's no way you will be cleared tomorrow. It's impossible since you "revealed" for no reason "today" (day cycle).

By coming out when you did you've doomed Swaggs who will most likely get killed tonight, eliminating your chance to be cleared. I'm certainly sticking with my vote for now. I'll be home from work around 8pm EST.

Swaggs couldn't have been protected today so my "dooming" him makes no sense.

Plus I am of the opinion that the bad guys are going to want to hit Snowball much more than Swaggs or I.

[Passacaglia]

Forget the last post, you wouldn't have known.

What?

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, I'll look for Path's post on the topic, but essentially the PM ability is not lost if the intended target is night killed. The "dead seer" has to pick another target to communicate with on that day.

So, in essence they will communicate with someone the next day if they are not night killed. So this mechanic will not be thwarted by killing Swaggs. That is why I have asked the "dead seers" to submit a conditional order with a primary/secondary choice so that time is not lost in the morning with Path/dead seer trying to figure out who a 2nd person would be if the first is killed.

Path's post on the matter coming up shortly ...

[hoopsguy]

Pass, pretty sure he was saying that Grey would not have known about RealDeal on Day 5 - only learned about him after he died.

Thus, not able to "save" him because he is not a seer who knows roles, but instead learns roles from the dead.

[Thomkal]

Yes Hoops has it right, I was trying to do three things at once here and confused myself in the process of writing that post. Going off to watch the pregame football shows now, so I can't post any more idiotic questions.

[Lorena]

I haven't had a chance to catch up, but I skimmed really quick and noticed that Greyroofoo possibly made a role reveal.

So in the meantime

unvote Greyroofoo

until I catch up of course.

[Alan T]

Sorry I have been so quiet this weekend.. like I said on Friday, its just hard for me to get around on Weekends. .I spedread through what I missed and hopefully didn't miss alot but here are my thoughts.

I don't know who I believe more Greyroofoo or Chubby... but their stories both don't seem to work out together.. it feels like one is telling us the truth and one isn't right now.

Chubby claims he is nothing important
Chubby was sure that Hoops (the bodyguard) was bad
Chubby was sure BrianD was bad (after many of us had already been pointing him out for days already)
Chubby was sure RealDeal was bad (which we haven't verified one way or the other yet)
Chubby claims Pilkington is making kills in what seems like a reach of a scenerio right now and is still alive.

Grey claims to be moses
Grey claims Pilkington is actually dead and has been dead.
Grey claims that he will verify his role tonight


I guess I can see some scenerio where they both are good, but right now they are very opposite ideas. I had planned on voting Goldeneagle again today for the third time, but it appears today is all about Grey vs Chubby.

My vote will be for Chubby only because if we lose him, as he says he doesn't have an important role.. and his "Facts" all seem to be really off. If I voted for Grey today, we would have no ability to verify Chubby or him and it would be a bigger loss if Grey is telling the truth.

If grey is lying and doesn't verify himself tonight/tommorrow then the lynch is an easy choice.

Vote CHubby

I'll try to get back before the lynch to see where things are or if I should move my vote for some reason. I can't promise anything though :(

[hoopsguy]

Warning, very long timeline post coming up! Summary to follow in next post.

Having a hard time finding the post by Path on the PM/kill stuff. But while looking for it I'll pull up some timeline information on the discussion.

Post #532 (Day 3, 9:16 AM CST)- Swaggs is first to propose the PM option

Post #533 (Day 3, 9:18) - Blade is very opposed to this idea (refers to BOXER'S one-time PM, which amused me at the time. He corrects this in next post).

Post #538 (Day 3, 9:34) - Anxiety tells Pass to emerge from his ass today. Pass, any idea at all what he meant here?

Post #542 (Day 3, 10:19) - Pass tells Anxiety "Your ass reminds me of Ypsilanti". Huh? I'm pretty sure I'm missing something here. Bringing this up because Anxiety was the Night 3 kill.

Post #550 (Day 3, 11:36) - I caution against the PM option to Swaggs, saying the bodyguard may not be able to protect him (I know this for a fact, as I protected him Night 2). I also raise the idea that Pilkington may be dead (I know I have not blocked a Night 2 attack).

Post #573 (Day 3, 1:39) - Anxiety responds to an AlanT post voting for BrianD, asking for other opinions on him. Another reason I thought he might be seer, was thinking about viewing him that night. Given that he was the night kill, I'm guessing I was not only one thinking this. Looking back, I think this has been my biggest mistake of the game so far, not going back to guarding him again on Night 3.

Post #617 (Day 3, 3:57 PM) - Blade and I have been discussing Bullet as Pilkington. Re-reading this, he seems pretty insistent that Bullet was not Pilkington and strongly suggesting that Bullet was good. Could he have been Clover and gone through an elaborate ruse of painting Bek in this role? For most players I would say no, but with Blade? Hmm ... he immediately opposed the PM Swaggs in #533.

Post #651 (5:51 PM) - Swaggs returns to the "PM me" discussion.

Post #652 (5:55 PM) - Blade again opposes it.

Post #654 (6:01 PM) - Alan is in favor of this plan. I believe these are his first comments on it, although he was around earlier in the day when it was discussed.

Post #655 (6:07 PM) - Swaggs expands on the merits of this plan.

Post #660 (6:18 PM) - Anxiety posts that he was beginning to suspect Lathum of being evil, encourages us to look at his actions/posts in context of Pilkington or Squealer.

Post #662 (6:30 PM) - Bek asks Alan why he has changed his thoughts on revealing, citing two posts.

Post #664 (6:34 PM) - Alan says he is being consistent, sending a PM is not revealing.

Post #668 (6:42 PM) - I again mention that we can not assume Swaggs will be guarded tonight. I ask Path for the clarification on how the PMs work if the intended target is killed.

Post #669 (6:42 PM) - Bek is against the reveal (cited by Blade in his belief that Bek was Clover).

Post #672 (6:50 PM) - Anxiety talks about merits of a reveal.
I think its too early too. We have three reveals total. That's three goes in the bidet. Maybe a pm reveal through another as well. After that, we're done.

Now, if they have something good, then by all means reveal. If you have found that two baddies were lynched, then let us know.
What if Anxiety viewed me on Night 1 and Lathum on Night 2? His posts make a ton of sense to me in this context. Again, I want to be wrong on this because if I'm right we lost our seer.

Post #673 (6:51 PM) - Anxiety says he would prefer that Moses/Clover NOT send their PM to Swaggs on Night 3. If he was seer, he would know I'm bodyguard and could see where I was headed with my warnings to Swaggs.

Post #676 (6:55 PM) - Swaggs talks about the concept of us having "5 reveals". Really good post.
Wrong. We potentially have 5 reveals.

The seer when they out themself.

Moses, via PM.

Moses when they out themself.

Clover, via PM.

Clover when they out themself.

Post #679 (7:00 PM) - Alan asks who will be in position of trust later in game if we don't use Swaggs now?

Post #681 (7:02 PM) - I vote for Bek.

Post #683 (7:05 PM) - Anxiety follows me in voting for Bek (I'm the only person he has viewed that he trusts, so he follows my lead).

Post #685 (7:09 PM) - Swaggs is concerned that Anxiety is following me on vote, thinks we are making a move.

Post #689 (7:12 PM) - Anxiety responds to Swaggs moving his vote to him, says I've already announced that hoops is on my trust list with you. You are not revealing anything I haven't already said.

Post #690 (7:15 PM) - AlanT moves his vote to Bek.

Post #704 (7:43 PM) - I ask Bek if he only has 20 minutes to live then what kind of information would he leave us?

Post #720 (7:51 PM) - Chubby wants a tie

Post #723 (7:53 PM) - I post vote count, Bek is ahead by 2

Post #724 (7:53 PM) - Bek says it is hopeless, he is a barnyard animal (dude, a reveal here would help if you have info!)

Post #731 (7:56 PM) - I move my vote to AE

Post #732 (7:57 PM) - Chubby wants a tie, votes for Grey

Post #734 (7:58 PM) - Anxiety does not like Chubby's "vote for tie" logic, moves vote off of Bek to Chubby. Again, he follows my lead. I'm pretty convinced at this point he is seer or wolf.

Post #736 (7:58 PM) - Chubby wants the tie, asks Anxiety to move his vote off of Bek (already happened)

Post #760 (8:28 PM) - Bek asks if he can discuss things while we wait for Path to show up. He knows he is in tie-breaker at this point.

Post #771 (9:01 PM) - the post I was looking for at the start of this timeline read. Path rules on the PMs and night kill
Just catching up. Frankly, I didn't think of how to handle that. My feeling is that I would allow them to choose another target, but to be fair I think it would have to be another target that same day -- in other words, they couldn't just decide to use it at some future time when they have someone else to trust.


I would encourage everyone to review this day, as I think it was by far the most interesting vote we have seen and you get a sense for where battle lines have been drawn in this game. I obviously selected the posts I thought were most important to my views on the game, along with providing my comments. But I would love for others to review them and point out where they differ with my thoughts.

[hoopsguy]

Summary:
1. I believe that Anxiety was the seer and hope that I have done a better job of illustrating it now than I did earlier
2. If someone does come out with a seer "reveal" I'm going to be grilling them pretty hard, so hopefully they can very clearly illustrate their views and why they chose now (as opposed to earlier/later) to come out.
3. I'm less convinced now that Bek was Clover. Blade had me strongly considering this point, but I'm back under 50% accepting this
4. I still do not quite understand Chubby's tie logic and I really want to understand where he was headed with this.
5. I do not necessarily see this as Chubby vs Grey today, but if Grey is telling the truth then Chubby has to re-examine his premises with Pilkington dead.

[Passacaglia]

Post #538 (Day 3, 9:34) - Anxiety tells Pass to emerge from his ass today. Pass, any idea at all what he meant here?

Post #542 (Day 3, 10:19) - Pass tells Anxiety "Your ass reminds me of Ypsilanti". Huh? I'm pretty sure I'm missing something here. Bringing this up because Anxiety was the Night 3 kill.

I just took his remark to mean that I had been accusing him a lot lately. Which I had -- two days in a row, I had some crackpot theory that involved him being a rev. As for my reply, well, Ypsilanti (where Anxiety is from) looks like ass.

[hoopsguy]

Very, very dead here during the football games. Hope to see a few people around between now and deadline so we can try to make a good decision today.

I will not be voting for myself or Swaggs today and, short of another person claiming Moses, won't be voting for Grey. So that leaves seven people to evaluate for today.

Chubby - claims to be simple villager, wants tie on votes, cast tie-breaker on RealDeal.
Alan T - claims to be simple villager
GoldenEagle - claims to be simple villager, won tie-breaker Day 5
Fouts - claims to be simple villager
Dodgerchick -
Passacaglia -
Thomkal -

[Greyroofoo]

i'll probably vote for whoever you're voting for

[hoopsguy]

While I appreciate the vote of confidence, I'm not exactly owning the wolves this game. I'm 0-5 on the bodyguard block and I don't have any idea how good my voting record is. I would encourage you to offer up your thoughts on that list of seven players and tell me which ones concern you the most. Even if it is strictly gut.

[Swaggs]

Hoops, I think we need to look real hard at Golden Eagle and Chubby today.

Golden Eagle has used, what I would consider, some very standard WW tactics to keep himself out of trouble in this game. He comes in and does a pile-on vote five minutes late one day, claiming he thought the deadline was later. Also, when in danger, stating that he has something to share later...which ended up being a theory. These are things that just stand out to me as desperate to stay alive, when the heat on him was really not all that intense, in my opinion.

Chubby, I'm not sure on. He has been a very outspoken attack dog for the past few days, but so far he hasn't delivered much. I'm leaning towards thinking that he is just playing this game aggressively, stepping on toes to see how people respond, but he has gotten us off task for the past few days, in my opinion, which is a very good play for an evil player.

[Swaggs]

In fact, I am going to vote right now, just so I don't end up missing again:

Vote Golden Eagle.

Nothing concrete, but I just feel like he has tried to play us for the last several days.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not voting for him, either. At this point, giving him another day is no big gamble.

Vote GoldenEagle

Maybe his meanderings were due to drunkenness as well, but they were more backtracking than just weird, and that seems wolfish.

Pass, can you cite the posts you were referring to in your vote?

[Fouts]

i'll probably vote for whoever you're voting for

Why do you trust hoops so much? Nobody has confirmed his role. I could understand if you would connect yourself to swaggs, but hoops?

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, in my list of seven players are a couple that I would prefer not to move on for at least another day. GoldenEagle is not one of them; he seems like as good a candidate as any right now.

[Swaggs]

How many revelutionaries do we think are remaining?

I am hoping no more than two and cautiously hoping on maybe just one.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, I don't know how to really estimate this without knowing what the lynch flavor implies. If the D2/D4 ones that did not involve rules changes implied that we got Revolutionaries then I would think we are down to 1-2 Revolutionaries left.

But if we are misreading the lynch stuff, and have been a little unlucky, there could be as many as three + Sympathizer left. I think this would represent some extreme bad luck, but I don't know he we learn more on this topic without Clover emerging to tell us.

[Swaggs]

I think we should put the real heat on Golden Eagle tonight and see if he comes out with anything. I'm guessing he will, although I'm not sure I will believe him.

[hoopsguy]

Vote count as of Post #1868:

Chubby 3 -- Grey (1841), Thomkal (1844), Alan (1854)
Grey 2 -- Fouts (1771), Chubby (1834)
GE 2 -- Pass (1838), Swaggs (1862)

Not voted - Hoops, GE, DC

[hoopsguy]

GE will vote to preserve himself. I do not want to see Grey go today, as I think we get resolution on him tomorrow. So I'm going to do what I can to keep Grey out of danger for today.

Fouts and Chubby - I think it makes sense for us to decide on Grey tomorrow. The way the vote stands right now basically forces a Chubby/GE showdown. I'm OK with this, but it feels like my hand is forced rather than getting to pick one or two on my own.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[hoopsguy]

Path, can the tie-breaker randomly go back to someone who has already had it or will it always move to a new person?

[Fouts]

Fouts and Chubby - I think it makes sense for us to decide on Grey tomorrow. The way the vote stands right now basically forces a Chubby/GE showdown. I'm OK with this, but it feels like my hand is forced rather than getting to pick one or two on my own.


I'm not chaning my vote from one of the lamest role reveals ever.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, Grey had two posts yesterday, prior to the role reveal, where he basically stated that Pilkington was not in the game. I'll dig up the post numbers if it helps you to believe that we should wait one day before deciding on Grey.

[hoopsguy]

Found this one while going back to look at Grey posts from earlier in the game, looking to persuade Fouts ... suffice it to say, this does not help with the "reveal".

Post #1153, on Day 4
vote anxiety

Grey, if you were Moses then why would you cast a vote for a person who died the night before? Who you should have learned their role?

[Alan T]

I'm finally back, but I really should re-read everything from friday night till now to make sure I'm on the same page. I have alot of comments, but I found while driving on the highway, the more I thought about this game the more I ended up suspicious of everyone.. I have alot of thoughts.. played alot of scenerios through my head while on the road.. so next post will likely be really long.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, welcome back.

Grey, you posted on this when it was brought up - suggesting something along the lines of "it would be stupid for me to plan a night kill, then forget about it". I agreed with that line of thought, but it is at least equally as stupid to see the body of Anxiety as Moses and then vote for him the next day.

[Fouts]

I think there is a good chance that Grey is squealer. He could know roles of people, who have since been killed, and then claim them as his own. While lynching him would not help us in the ratio, it would stop the misinformation.

If he is moses, then I agree lynching him before he can prove PM with swaggs is a mistake.

I can't see a revolutionary claiming the Moses role. How could a rev have enough information to claim he is Moses, and pin a couple other roles on dead people.

I just can't think of a good reason to vote for somebody else.

[hoopsguy]

I felt like it was easier to decide on Grey tomorrow, but I'm quickly reconsidering:
1.) He comes out with reveal when he is leading on votes
2.) He initially does not specify which role he is - Clover/Moses
3.) Review of older posts shows that he voted on Day 4 for the Night kill from Day 3 which he would have viewed as Moses

Going back to look for earlier posts that suggest Pilkington was dead on Day 3 ... but I'm quickly moving into agreement with Fouts that this smells.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I'm pretty sure the Squealer only learns Seer/No Seer and not roles. Going to double-check rules on this, then go look at Grey's Day 3 posts.

[hoopsguy]

Squealer the Propagandist -- Can view one player per night via PM. Result of view is seer/not seer only. Squealer counts as a villager in the overall ratio but will scan as (and win with) evil. Has no PM privledges.


Here is the rule.

[Fouts]

I felt like it was easier to decide on Grey tomorrow, but I'm quickly reconsidering:
1.) He comes out with reveal when he is leading on votes
2.) He initially does not specify which role he is - Clover/Moses
3.) Review of older posts shows that he voted on Day 4 for the Night kill from Day 3 which he would have viewed as Moses

Going back to look for earlier posts that suggest Pilkington was dead on Day 3 ... but I'm quickly moving into agreement with Fouts that this smells.

Is it possible for a Rev to know the roles he claims to know?

If he is Squealer/Moses, maybe we should wait until tomorrow.

[Greyroofoo]

Grey, if you were Moses then why would you cast a vote for a person who died the night before? Who you should have learned their role?

It was simply a case of me not paying attention

[Thomkal]

looks like I need to use another "save my skin vote"

vote Alan T

I would vote for hoopsguy, but I trust him and believe it would be a huge mistake to lynch him.

You might ask him about this quote from Page 25 too Hoops.

[Greyroofoo]

hoopsguy was a leading vote getter at the time

[Thomkal]

i would hate to change my vote to hoopsguy, but if its to save my skin.......

And this one from the same page.

[Fouts]

You might ask him about this quote from Page 25 too Hoops.

Hmm, how can Moses feel so strongly about a player that is still alive?

[hoopsguy]

Grey didn't say anything about Pilkington on Day 3, despite the fact that he was in a tie for the vote that day.

[hoopsguy]

I had re-read these posts earlier. I had made my bodyguard reveal earlier that day, but I also thought they came out pretty strong in their level of support. This is where I thought he might be seer (thinking I may have been mistaken on Anxiety, who I initially thought was seer) and it is why I have not gone hard after him earlier in the game.

He also made a post in that same general area stating he thought both Blade and I were good and he hoped we would stop fighting each other.

[Fouts]

Grey didn't say anything about Pilkington on Day 3, despite the fact that he was in a tie for the vote that day.

Any idea who had the tiebreaker? You would think moses would reveal if he were going down.

[Swaggs]

Grey is going to be proven by his actions tonight.

I'd prefer we get a solid block on GE and see how he reacts.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so I'm a little torn right now. We know about Grey tomorrow with 100% certainty. Unless we are in end game right now (don't know how we could know this) it makes sense to hold off on him.

On the Anxiety vote, he either made a really bad play as a Revolutionary (or one of their allies) or a really bad play as Moses. I'm not sure how to determine which one.

The fact is that no one has emerged to challenge his claim. Either the real Moses or the Seer could have done so, if they are alive. We do still have 50% of the players in the game alive, so it is far from a sure thing that these roles would be gone.

Grey was behind on the vote and maybe he thought it was worth taking the risk of a fake reveal. But it only buys him one day, so I don't think the risk/reward was quite worth it. I would expect a fake seer play before I would expect a fake Moses play because they can then target a player instead of leaving us to pick the alternative player in the 1:1 trade.

[Greyroofoo]

unvote chubby
vote GoldenEagle

[hoopsguy]

Dodgerchick, GoldenEagle, and Chubby are going to control the vote as it stands now. I'm hoping people do show up to get their votes in.

[Chubby]

if Swaggs is killed tonight, and grey alive

IF grey is seer

who does he tell?
whoever he tells won't be known good, the only known good guy by all is Swaggs.

[Chubby]

vote count?

[Swaggs]

if Swaggs is killed tonight, and grey alive

IF grey is seer

who does he tell?
whoever he tells won't be known good, the only known good guy by all is Swaggs.

In my opinion, I would be surprised if either Grey or I are targetted tonight.

The revs will be playing a potentially very costly game of chance with hoops if they do. If I'm a rev, I doubt I risk a botched kill attempt AND a chance of getting revealed.

[Fouts]

Ok, after reading the posts on the Bek/Grey tie, it became obvious to me that Bek was a good guy. One guy (Chubby) kept pushing for a tie, but for the life of me I can't understand why. Maybe he knew who had the lynch vote.

The tiebreaker had to come from one of the following: BrianD, Alan, Realdeal, or Grey. Chubby's vote tied it up, allowing the tiebreaker to make the decision (which was not his vote).

unvote Grey

vote Chubby

[Alan T]

I think this is a good point to re-look at alot of the players both past and present..

1. Anxiety -- KILLED NIGHT 3 - When hoops first brought up his thoughts that Anxiety was the seer, I didn't put alot into it, didn't really see it. The posts Hoops made today about Anxiety's behavor seem to make me feel definitly something was up there.. either Anxiety knew hoops's allegiance due to being bad or the seer as hoops said. I had partially assumed that the seer had just stayed quiet up till recently since he most likely wasted several days during the middle of the game scanning Hoops, Blade and myself due to all of the ruckus we caused days 3-5. I started backing off Blade a bit during the middle of that after thinking things through that it was very unlikely if the seer had found any of us 3 to be bad we would have known it by then. I also felt fairly comfortable with Hoops's reveal due to that, and I started paying a bit more attention to some of Blade's hints and thought he was hinting that he was moses. Even to right now I partially wonder if he was moses and Grey is lying to us.. Blade is sometimes really subtle about things, but I've played enough with him I thought I picked that up there. (Ie: transfering that he thought Chubby was moses and used that for his beliefs even if some of them Chubby didnt actually believe). I hope Anxiety wasn't the seer, but the points Hoops made and the fact we have not heard from him either clearing many of us or damning anyone at this point in the end game just makes me fear he is gone.

6. BrianD -- LYNCHED DAY 4 - When Brian died, I was convinced that he was bad, the rules did not change only reassured me of that. Even to this day I strongly feel that Brian might have been Napolean. I wondered if Brian was indeed a revolutionary if the other revolutionaries would be out in front of the discussions like Brian was. Brian was very active involved in every conversation, voted early but never provided original material. He rode on the coattails of every single idea. One thing I have been intrigued about however is watching a couple people (1 still in the game in Chubby) who jumped on the Brian bandwagon after it started and trying to use that as leverage for trust.

7. RealDeal -- LYNCHED DAY 5 - I'm not really sure what his death told us.. I voted for Goldeneagle yesterday, and every time I have voted for Goldeneagle some tiebreak or last minute moves came out to save him. (Usually ironically enough Grey and Chubby were involved if I remember right). I guess we don't really have any way to confirm what Realdeal was, but he swore even after his death (perhaps even not in the spirit of the game) that Chubby set him up. Chubby also was 100% certain Hoops is bad, and still does not acknowledge him as the bodyguard.. I'm not sure exactly what that means.

19. Bek -- LYNCHED DAY 3 - When Bek died, Blade swore up and down that he was Clover. We still haven't seen any sign of clover, and all this talk about Grey coming out and his reveal makes me wonder... Grey is Clover still alive or have you gotten his information as well? If Clover is out there somewhere, thats something that could damn Grey if this is a false reveal.

9. Blade6119 -- KILLED NIGHT 5 - I was trying to figure out why Blade was still alive on day 5. For that matter I was trying to figure out why i was still alive. Its unusual for me to go this far into any game and there has to be some reason. One thought I had was because I've said repeatedly that I have no special role, perhaps the bad guys were so focused on trying to find the seer(s). Another part of me wondered if its because I either was dead right about my thoughts that GoldenEagle is bad and killing me would increase suspicions.. but after a bit I think I just settled that Blade and I and our fussing for 3 days at each other was doing the wolves job for them. I don't find it a coeincidence that finally when Blade started believing some of what I was saying and changed his opinion about others that Suddenly Blade was killed. I have a bad feeling this means bad news for me tonight too :( Either way I'm not important enough to guard so if I'm the choice so be it.

3. Swaggs - Not much to say here, there is no way that you can deny his being good. I wonder why he is still alive though, it can't help the wolves by having a known good guy here that will never collect votes. My only guess is that they just don't want to run the risk of running into the bodyguard. This might be a sign they are down to low numbers (perhaps 1 wolf left even) if they are unwilling to take any risks on this.

14. hoopsguy - I said a few days ago that if Hoops really is bad and pulled a gusty reveal without any way of knowing if the bodyguard was dead yet or not.. then he deserves to win. That said, I think it has to be pretty much assumed that he's what he says he is by this point. Chubby pushed at him for days, and continued to push even after the reveal until he didnt have enough backing any more and changed directions.

The next three get lumped together for a special reason:
11. Dodgerchick
16. Passacaglia
17. Conflaguration -- replaced by Thomkal night 4

All three get lumped together because.. well I honestly can't remember much about any of them as far as stances they have taken. All three have participated in conversations and tossed out ideas, but for the majority of the game all three have stayed pretty low key and under the radar. For that reason, I don't have much feel good or bad about any of them.. but once I run out of people I have bad feelings about I likely will look at this group.

10. ardent enthusiast -- replaced by Fouts day 4 - Fouts is intriguing me some.. I pushed him pretty hard right as he entered the game. I think if there is any chance Pilkington is still around in the game (as small as there is of that at this point), its Fouts. If what Grey said is true, then that obviously isn't the case anyways. Fouts coming in and messing up the PM message set off my alarms since I kind of trapped him there. I let off when Path supported him however, and if I had to guess I would guess 80% that Fouts is likely good. I'm still trying to get a feel for him though in a shorter time now.

The last three are the ones I have negative feelings about right now..

8. GoldenEagle - Its no secret that I've hammered GE about his inconsistancies, his poor votes and poor timing. I think if BrianD was indeed a wolf, it wouldn't suprise me at all if GE was his quiet buddy.

4. Chubby - I've said alot about Chubby in many of the other references above. I don't usually take well to people saying they are completely sure about someone and it turns out being false. Thats either someone really hampering the village or a wolf in most cases. I don't have much else to say about Chubby that I haven't already said above in other references.

2. Greyroofoo - This is the toughest one.. with someone revealing a role like he says he is, it begs to buy another day. I can't possibly see why he would reveal that role if he's only going to get lynched the next day. I guess my biggest concern here is , is there any end game strategy where just buying one more day will help the wolves win? What if he is actually Squealer and his bodycount counts against his team, he likely will want to die to lynch instead of a night action anyways.. This role reveal would be the perfect reveal to buy an extra day, get a non-wolf lynched, get another person who doesn't count for them lynched (him) the next day.. and basically give the wolves three more kills.. Either way this is a huge gamble, there are so many holes in his story I really really feel that he is making it up.. but I just don't see how I can force myself to vote for him here just in case he is telling the truth, and just played the role poorly (ie: he's been on the line almost getting lynched several times. You mean to me he wouldn't have passed his info to swaggs at some point by now?) I really think grey is playing a gamble that moses and clover are both dead due to no one PMing Swaggs and now with his butt on the line today he makes up a drunken reveal to buy himself another day and buy the wolves 3 kills.

I dunno.. but like I said, its very hard to not give him that day just in case.

[Greyroofoo]

The tiebreaker had to come from one of the following: BrianD, Alan, Realdeal, or Grey. Chubby's vote tied it up, allowing the tiebreaker to make the decision (which was not his vote).



I find that logic slightly flawed.

To me the tiebreaker could've come from ANYONE who didn't vote for me.

[Alan T]

Great, in the time it took me to type that all up, you all bring up the points I was going to bring up about grey! Well I guess I came up with the same concern about grey that hoops and fouts did!

Ok, after reading the posts on the Bek/Grey tie, it became obvious to me that Bek was a good guy. One guy (Chubby) kept pushing for a tie, but for the life of me I can't understand why. Maybe he knew who had the lynch vote.

The tiebreaker had to come from one of the following: BrianD, Alan, Realdeal, or Grey. Chubby's vote tied it up, allowing the tiebreaker to make the decision (which was not his vote).

unvote Grey

vote Chubby

If Im not mistaken Fouts, BrianD (who I still today feel was bad) came out admiting he had the tiebreaker that day that lynched bek on that tie vote with grey

[Swaggs]

Do we know the order of night operations?

If Grey orders to send his PM AND gets killed tonight, will his PM get sent?

[Thomkal]

Hey Chubby,

Why do you think Blade was chosen for the night kill over you? If you were right about Real Deal, why would the revs keep you alive?

[Greyroofoo]

well hoops said he was protecting me, so hopefully that won't happen


and the night order has been posted I just don't know where

[Fouts]

I find that logic slightly flawed.

To me the tiebreaker could've come from ANYONE who didn't vote for me.

Maybe I got it wrong. I thought it came from someone who voted for Bek. Is this not the case?

[Greyroofoo]

dola

There have been a couple of questions PM'd to me regarding the order in which night actions are performed. Basically it comes down like this:

Views are resolved
Bodyguard is assigned
Revolutionary kill
Pilkington kill

Hope that helps clarify. Out for a bit, let me know if there are questions about this.

[Alan T]

Maybe I got it wrong. I thought it came from someone who voted for Bek. Is this not the case?

Im pretty sure unless I have the wrong day in mind that BrianD came out and said he had the tiebreaker on the Bek vs Grey vote.

[Swaggs]

That doesn't really clarify when the PMs are sent, though.

[Fouts]

Im pretty sure unless I have the wrong day in mind that BrianD came out and said he had the tiebreaker on the Bek vs Grey vote.

Ok. I think I am confused about the tiebreaker. Can anyone have the tiebreaker, and if they are not involved in the vote, they have to choose between the two?

Somebody tell me why a player will push for the tie, when they know the duke has already used his switch.

[GoldenEagle]

<b>Vote Chubby</b>

A self-preservation vote.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I can't explain that. Chubby was very insistent on a tie that day, saying that the information revealed would help the village.

The information revealed could be helpful if we knew the roles of the dead, but without Clover providing this I'm not sure how to derive value from ties (after Swaggs used his Duke, that is).

Path, can you clarify when the PMs are sent, as this does appear to be unclear at the moment.

[Fouts]

One reason is, they know who has the tiebreaker and that person has already cast their vote for somebody who is not with the bad guys.

From the bek vote, I see a connection between brian, chubby and grey.

[path12]

Path, can the tie-breaker randomly go back to someone who has already had it or will it always move to a new person?

It will always go to a new person.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, the challenge there is that you have to assume that there are three Revolutionaries at one time for them to be able to communicate like that.

At most, I think we started with three Revolutionaries plus the Sympathizer.

[hoopsguy]

Updated Votes as of Post #1913:

Chubby 5 -- Grey (1841), Thomkal (1844), Alan (1854), Fouts (1897), GE (1909)
GE 3 -- Pass (1838), Swaggs (1862), Hoops (1870)
Grey 1 -- Chubby (1834)

Not voted - DC

So Chubby can get a tie by moving his vote and having DC vote for GE. Or, obviously, vote switches.

Chubby won't have the tie-breaker, as he used it on Day 5. BrianD took credit for the Day 3 tie. And we still don't know who cast the tie on Day 1.

[hoopsguy]

GE, what are your thoughts on the game at this point? Do you trust Greyroofoo? If you didn't have to cast a self-preservation vote, then where would you go with your vote?

[Fouts]

Fouts, the challenge there is that you have to assume that there are three Revolutionaries at one time for them to be able to communicate like that.

At most, I think we started with three Revolutionaries plus the Sympathizer.

Yeah, it is a little weak. The realdeal lynch throws it all out of whack, if we assume that realdeal was bad.

[Fouts]

I'm thinking about tying it up. I want to hear from GE and Chubby.

[hoopsguy]

If I was picking between the two right now, I would go with GE at the moment. I'm more inclined to suspect a quiet player (GE) than a guy playing over-the-top aggressive (Chubby).

[path12]

Current vote count:

Chubby 4 -- Thomkal (1844), Alan T (1854), Fouts (1897), GoldenEagle (1909)
GoldenEagle 4 -- Passacaglia (1838), Swaggs (1862), hoopsguy (1870), Greyroofoo (1892)
Greyroofoo 1 -- Chubby (1834)

[Alan T]

Yeah, it is a little weak. The realdeal lynch throws it all out of whack, if we assume that realdeal was bad.

Thats the big catch, we have no way to validate that.. unless Grey is telling us the truth. Its a huge catch-22

[Fouts]

Oh, it is tied. Hmm. Either of those on the block have anything to say?

[hoopsguy]

Path, thanks for posting that - missed Grey's vote change at Post #1892.

[path12]

Regarding the question about Moses/Clover PM ability:

They submit in their night action who they would like to have PM rights with for the next day. he next They then would be able to communicate with that one person for one full day. If they did not live through the night obviously they will not be able to communicate. It's not a one PM only sort of thing.

[hoopsguy]

Alan T, Grey has no impact on evaluating Real Deal - RD was Day 5 lynch, not Day 5 night kill (that was Blade).

[Fouts]

Thats the big catch, we have no way to validate that.. unless Grey is telling us the truth. Its a huge catch-22

I'm having a very hard time believing Grey, but I will give him another day. If he doesn't PM with swaggs or somebody else (not hoops), then I say we lynch him

[hoopsguy]

Path, but what is the order of events? Does the PM choice go before or after views? Before or after bodyguard, etc.

[Lorena]

Well, I don't think I'm catching up in 10 minutes... anyone have anything really quick? Specifically for Chubby and GE

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I'm OK with him not choosing me for PMs. Especially if it is Swaggs.

[Lorena]

Or post numbers would be cool

[Fouts]

Fouts, I'm OK with him not choosing me for PMs. Especially if it is Swaggs.

I just didn't get a good vibe from the conversations you two had yesterday. I only trust a couple people right now.

[Alan T]

Alan T, Grey has no impact on evaluating Real Deal - RD was Day 5 lynch, not Day 5 night kill (that was Blade).

He would be able to tell us tommorrow though if he was telling the truth.

[Alan T]

I'm having a very hard time believing Grey, but I will give him another day. If he doesn't PM with swaggs or somebody else (not hoops), then I say we lynch him

What if Swaggs dies tonight and he chooses someone else (not hoops) to PM with because he "wasnt sure about hoops" couldn't that get staged?

[hoopsguy]

DC, I'm not sure there is new info on either GE or Chubby today. Just the same suspicions people have held on them the whole way.

Both claimed to be villagers - no special roles.

[Greyroofoo]

i will request swaggs for pm ability with hoopsguy as a secondary

[Fouts]

i will request swaggs for pm ability with hoopsguy as a secondary

Why Hoops???

[Lorena]

Was realdeal perceived to be good or evil?

[Lorena]

dola, I knew chubby said he was evil... but anyone else?

[path12]

Path, but what is the order of events? Does the PM choice go before or after views? Before or after bodyguard, etc.

Maybe I'm not understanding your question, but it really doesn't matter when the order of events is from what I see. If Moses/Clover lives through the night they would be able to PM their target, if they die during the night they can't send anything since it's a next day power. If their target dies during the night I will ask them to select another player to have rights with for the next day.

[Fouts]

What if Swaggs dies tonight and he chooses someone else (not hoops) to PM with because he "wasnt sure about hoops" couldn't that get staged?

If hoops is who he says he is, swaggs won't die tonight. And yes, it could be staged.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I get that Grey's near-complete trust for me today would be suspicious for someone that is not a seer when I have not validated my role. I would like to be the secondary choice for tomorrow because I know it would be authentic, but there is no way for you to be 100% sure.

[Greyroofoo]

hoops is probably the guy i trust the most after swaggs

[Lorena]

Oh god, I hope I did the right thing

vote chubby

[Fouts]

dola, I knew chubby said he was evil... but anyone else?

From the writeup, it looked like RD was a bad guy. GE hasn't said anything despite sitting in the thread for the last 20+ minutes.

[Greyroofoo]

besides, if not hoops then who?

[Fouts]

besides, if not hoops then who?

I'll let swaggs answer that question.

[path12]

Final vote count:

Chubby 5 -- Thomkal (1844), Alan T (1854), Fouts (1897), GoldenEagle (1909), Dodgerchick (1942)
GoldenEagle 4 -- Passacaglia (1838), Swaggs (1862), hoopsguy (1870), Greyroofoo (1892)
Greyroofoo 1 -- Chubby (1834)


A long and hectic day as hooves first pointed at Greyroofoo, until he revealed himself to have knowledge that could be of some use. Hoops and Fouts grill him, and he eventually convinces everyone to leave him alone at least for now. Suspicion then piled once again onto GoldenEagle, but finally the tide turned late and Chubby was called to the front, and was quickly killed.

You have a feeling that tonight will be pivotal. Time will tell.

CHUBBY HAS BEEN LYNCHED. NIGHT ACTIONS ARE DUE TOMORROW AT 9AM EASTERN.

[Fouts]

I don't like those results, plus nobody tried to save Chubby (including himself).

[hoopsguy]

Again no rules changes - hard to believe we have had three straight good lynches. I'm pretty sure that Squealer was responsible for the updates, which lends some credence to Grey's story ... given that he said Gram was Squealer.

Grey, are you up in the mornings before lynch is posted?

[Greyroofoo]

I start work at 7am Central, and visiting forums at work is frowned upon.

[Greyroofoo]

Anyone think that DodgerChick and GoldenEagle are in league?

[hoopsguy]

OK, was going to suggest taking out an insurance policy by posting the results from Days 1, 3, and 5 at that time in the event that something happens. I'm only 75% on my block, so there is a chance this doesn't break in our favor.

If you are dead in the morning it is obvious you were not a Revolutionary. But that information would die with you. Along with any information you may or may not have gained from Clover.

[hoopsguy]

I think GoldenEagle has been awfully fortunate this game, as he has been up for a number of lynches.

I also have no idea why he doesn't assert himself in the thread to try and address/reduce the suspicions around him.

[Swaggs]

Grey, I suggest sending the option to Alan T if I am killed tonight.

[Fouts]

Grey, I suggest sending the option to Alan T if I am killed tonight.

Concur.

[Swaggs]

At least that way, it is isn't a pre-determined person that can corroborate with him if he is lying.

[Fouts]

At least that way, it is isn't a pre-determined person that can corroborate with him if he is lying.

I like somebody other than Grey picking the person. Alan is a good choice.

[Lorena]

I should probably explain my vote for Chubby.

I haven't caught up but based on what I knew before Blade was killed and what little I skimmed through, Greyroofoo claims to know something so I'm trusting him for tonight.

I figure if Greyroofoo is telling the truth, than Chubby is lying and thus my vote. And no Greyroofoo, GE and I are not in league, I know nothing about him.

I really, really struggled with tonight's vote but I logged on and posted a quick vote after I had to log back off and tend to some RL issues. I just hope I voted for the right person.

Back offline until later. I hope I didn't blow it for us :(

[Greyroofoo]

I have chosen Swaggs / Alant as a PM partner

[Swaggs]

I hope I am around to help you all tomorrow. :(

[bulletsponge]

this thread is going thru smiley withdrawls http://www.smileyhut.com/animals/horse.gif http://www.smileyhut.com/animals/piggy.gif

[GoldenEagle]

I have been out the entire weekend. I came in and voted quickly and then went out to eat. I have some issue that I will clarify in the morning.

[Swaggs]

I have been out the entire weekend. I came in and voted quickly and then went out to eat. I have some issue that I will clarify in the morning.

Why are you so confident that you will be alive in the morning? If it is something important, why on earth would you risk getting killed by the revolutionaries tonight before sharing it with us?

[Alan T]

Why are you so confident that you will be alive in the morning? If it is something important, why on earth would you risk getting killed by the revolutionaries tonight before sharing it with us?

Its easy to be confident that you won't die if you're the one doing the killing.

[Swaggs]

Its easy to be confident that you won't die if you're the one doing the killing.

Agreed.

If I go down tonight, please someone take a long, long look at GE.

[path12]

The night passes quietly for the most part and you sleep soundly.......until the sounds of fighting erupt from one of the barns. The sounds of the battle are fierce, the air is punctuated with whinnies and barking, and you rush over to find hoopsguy standing by Swaggs' stall, breathing heavily.

DAY 7 HAS BEGUN. LYNCH DEADLINE IS 9PM EASTERN.

[Alan T]

I think we finally caught a break. Hoops, tell me you have some good news.

[Swaggs]

Excellent work, hoops. Hopefully you picked up some additional information.

I can say, without question, that hoops and Grey are on our side.

[Fouts]

Excellent work, hoops. Hopefully you picked up some additional information.

I can say, without question, that hoops and Grey are on our side.

Awesome. So they went after swaggs, and hoops stopped them. How do you know Grey is on our side?

[Thomkal]

woot Hoops! Fouts I'm assuming he got the PM from Grey?

[hoopsguy]

Why are you so confident that you will be alive in the morning?

Because the bodyguard does not have any chance to kill a Revolutionary. He attacked me.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[hoopsguy]

Down to nine players.

Trusted:
Swaggs
Hoops (I hope)
Greyroofoo

Distrusted:
GoldenEagle (soon to be lynched)

We are moving into a pretty solid position. I'll be able to cover 25% of the remaining 8 players tonight, assuming the game is still running at that point.

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I did not initially intend to guard Swaggs last night. But I did not trust AlanT with the information, so I was going to do whatever I could to make sure that there was not an opportunity for Alan to be the one "clearing" Grey.

If we gave the information to a bad guy he says he never got the PM, and we get into a staredown between those two - I'm pretty sure I know how that would have gone. Then we would have gotten no role information on death ... potentially nasty.

The fact that they attacked me instead of Swaggs makes me feel better about Alan T, for what it is worth. By attacking me, they were conceding that Swaggs would clear Grey.

[Thomkal]

vote goldeneagle

[Thomkal]

Well I think we need to look at Dodgerchick after goldeneagle. She has been after Grey for the past few days and then just so happened to come in at the very last minute to vote for Chubby when she had the whole weekend to vote.

I also am a bit suspicious of Fouts. He seemed to be questioning Grey's Moses claim quite a bit over the weekend. Anyone else see this? Like you Hoops, I thought Alan T was the not the best choice for Grey's "safety net" if Swaggs was killed. I've been suspicious of him since I entered the game, which is why I questioned him first when I started playing.

I suppose I have to be viewed suspiciously since I voted for Chubby over Golden Eagle last night. I did not like the fact that he controlled the voting on Real Deal (and I voted with him), and then voting for Grey yesterday which no regular barnyard animal (of which I am one) should be doing in a game where we had no information on anyone's roles. Grey's information, if true, would have broken the game open, and every barnyard animal would benefit from it.

[hoopsguy]

Thomkal, I'm not sure where we head after GE quite yet. But we can now look at GoldenEagle's voting record over the duration of the game to start putting some pieces together.

Also, I'm going to be starting work on a new project today. So that will likely limit my participation. I fully expect to be here for last hour, but don't really know how much between now and then.

[Thomkal]

Bah Hoops, how can work be more important than Werewolf? :)

[hoopsguy]

Heh, I need to get company policy modified. Or get that buy-in from my clients. Perhaps we change our contract language :)

[Chubby]

boy, never would have guessed last nights happenings ;)

[Passacaglia]

hoops, right after I left yesterday, you asked me to explain what posts I was talking about with my GE vote. Do you still need me to do that? ;) It sounds like you don't need it anymore, but it was basically the whole idea that he voted for RealDeal, said he would give us some info later. Then, when later came, he said he was too afraid to give the info, lest he die -- then later said that all he was going to say was why he voted for RealDeal -- and he didn't even explain that! Anyway, I love the smell of bandwagon in the morning.

Vote GoldenEagle

[Thomkal]

Day 1 Final Votes:

Anxiety 3 -- ardent (146), BrianD (177), Swaggs (180)
Swaggs 3 -- Anxiety (107), Lathum (144), hoops (219)
BrianD 2 -- Bek (131), Passacaglia (153)
RealDeal 2 -- saldana (152), Grammaticus (169)
Blade6119 2 -- Greyroofoo (92), RealDeal (197)
Conflaguration 1 -- st.cronin (77)
Chubby 1 -- bulletsponge (74)
hoops 1 -- Alan T (75)
Bek 1 -- Dodgerchick (79)
bulletsponge 1 -- Chubby (80)
Greyroofoo 1 -- Blade (85)
st.cronin 1 -- Conflaguration (97)

Not voting: GoldenEagle
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 2 Final Voting:

bulletsponge 7 -- BrianD (364), Chubby (373), GoldenEagle (400), Anxiety (409), Swaggs (424), Lathum (440), RealDeal (443)
GoldenEagle 4 -- Alan T (296), Grammaticus (297), bulletsponge (349), Greyroofoo (432)
BrianD 3 -- Bek (343), Conflaguration (379), Blade (430)
Anxiety 1 -- Passacaglia (381)
Grammaticus 1 -- Dodgerchick (382)
Passacaglia 1 -- hoopsguy (425)

Not voting: ardent
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 3 Final Voting:

Bek 4 -- BrianD (602), Alan T (690), RealDeal (711), Greyroofoo (730)
Greyroofoo 4 -- Blade (603), GoldenEagle (630), Bek (633), Chubby (732)
Ardent 2 -- Grammaticus (634), hoopsguy (731)
Anxiety 2 -- Passacaglia (646), Swaggs (688)
Chubby 1 -- Anxiety (734)
GoldenEagle 1 -- Dodgerchick (716)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 4: Final Voting:

BrianD 5 -- Hoops (1250), Swaggs (1255), Alan T (1261), Greyroofoo (1266), GoldenEagle (1300)
Greyroofoo 3 -- BrianD (1195), Dodgerchick (1209), Fouts (1286)
Hoopsguy 1 -- Chubby (894)
Blade 1 -- Passacaglia (1056)
Ardent/Fouts 1 -- Grammaticus (1142)
Dodgerchick 1 -- RealDeal (915)

Not voting: Conflaguration. I will start looking for a replacement.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 5: Final Voting:

RealDeal 4 -- Chubby (1407), GoldenEagle (1553), Thomkal (1641), Blade (1653)
GoldenEagle 4 -- Alan T (1436), hoopsguy (1569), Greyroofoo (1637), RealDeal (1654)
Greyroofoo 2 -- Fouts (1598), Dodgerchick (1627)

Not voting: Swaggs, Passacaglia
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Day 6: Final Voting:

Chubby 5 -- Thomkal (1844), Alan T (1854), Fouts (1897), GoldenEagle (1909), Dodgerchick (1942)
GoldenEagle 4 -- Passacaglia (1838), Swaggs (1862), hoopsguy (1870), Greyroofoo (1892)
Greyroofoo 1 -- Chubby (1834)
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[Alan T]

vote goldeneagle


Well guess today's vote is pretty easy.

[Alan T]

How many bad guys do we think there are left? If they are willing to make a bold move last night, is that a sign of confidence or desperation? Grey says that they killed off both of their allies at night, and we had been working under the assumption of at least 2 dead bad guys during the day. If this is #5, thats pretty close to the max bad guys that I had figured in.

Any chance this vote might end the game?

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I was thinking through the same thing.

Worst case - the Revolutionaries started with three people + Sympathizer. We kill our first Revolutionary here, they activate the still alive Sympathizer, and we go into this evening with a 5 vs 3 scenario. They are a night kill and bad lynch away from victory, but we have three known goods at this point and my bodyguard role (now proven) complicates things quite a bit.

Medium worst case - Revs started with two people + Sympathizer. Everything else is identical to above, we go into this evening with a 5 vs 2 scenario.

I don't think we can assume they were down to their last man at this point, even if that is what we would like to see. I'm guessing they figured they would have to deal with me at some point in the game and could not keep holding out hope that I would be lynched. So they took their shot now, rather than waiting until later.

I doubt they would do this in the above worst case mode. If they really had 3+Sympathizer going into last night with 9 people left they try like heck to avoid me. Then point out that I haven't stopped anything all game, and see if they can get me for the game-ending lynch.

Most likely is that they have 1-2 right now, and we are taking one away at the end of this day.

[Alan T]

Alan, I was thinking through the same thing.

Worst case - the Revolutionaries started with three people + Sympathizer. We kill our first Revolutionary here, they activate the still alive Sympathizer, and we go into this evening with a 5 vs 3 scenario. They are a night kill and bad lynch away from victory, but we have three known goods at this point and my bodyguard role (now proven) complicates things quite a bit.

Medium worst case - Revs started with two people + Sympathizer. Everything else is identical to above, we go into this evening with a 5 vs 2 scenario.

I don't think we can assume they were down to their last man at this point, even if that is what we would like to see. I'm guessing they figured they would have to deal with me at some point in the game and could not keep holding out hope that I would be lynched. So they took their shot now, rather than waiting until later.

I doubt they would do this in the above worst case mode. If they really had 3+Sympathizer going into last night with 9 people left they try like heck to avoid me. Then point out that I haven't stopped anything all game, and see if they can get me for the game-ending lynch.

Most likely is that they have 1-2 right now, and we are taking one away at the end of this day.

Thats what I was thinking, but I was throwing it out to see if I was overthinking this. I guess my question is why you and why not grey or swaggs or even me. Maybe its wishful thinking, but to me it sounds like we're close and with GE being our likely lynch target even before this move it feels like desperation.

[Greyroofoo]

I just PMed Swaggs.

[Passacaglia]

Because the bodyguard does not have any chance to kill a Revolutionary. He attacked me.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE


Can you clarify this? He attacked YOU? Or Swaggs?

[hoopsguy]

He attacked me, not Swaggs.

[hoopsguy]

Thinking about this some more, I'm guessing there is one more Revolutionary left besides GE. They figured GE was going to come under serious scrutiny no matter what today, so why not try to take care of a role that was going to be problematic for them down the stretch.

Swaggs, any new information for either you or Grey to pass along? We still do not know about the four people who died on N1, N3, N5, and N6 - trusting you to use your best judgement on revealing them and/or anything about potential lynch information that may have been passed along to Grey.

[Swaggs]

Alright... catching up.

[Swaggs]

Has anyone claimed any of the tiebreaks yet?

I think that, if you are on the side of good, you should reveal that information at this point, as it could really close things down for us.

[Alan T]

I haven't had any tiebreaks yet.

[Swaggs]

Here are things I know for sure:

Grey is Moses/Clover. I now understand and respect why he will not say which, as it keeps the revs guessing.

Hoops is clearly Boxer, based on the writeup, the fact that no one died, and his verification.

Swaggs is Benjamin.

Lathum was Pilkington.

Gramm was Squealer.

[Thomkal]

Just a note: Have to take a family member to the doctors, so I'll be away for a couple hours, and potentially, but unlikely, I won't be here at lynch time.

[Swaggs]

I haven't had any tiebreaks yet.

Nor have I.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, here are the claimed tie-breaks so far:

Day 1 - unclaimed
Day 3 - BrianD claimed it (Bek lost against Grey)
Day 5 - Chubby claimed it (RealDeal lost against GE - I think?)

[hoopsguy]

I have not held the tiebreaker at any point this game.

[Thomkal]

I did not have any of the tiebreaks.

[Lorena]

Vote GoldenEagle

I don't think I need to explain myself as it's clear he attacked hoopsguy.

[Lorena]

dola,

I wonder why Chubby didn't vote for GoldenEagle, it might have saved him.

[Swaggs]

Hoops, do you feel pretty good about voting for GE today?

I feel pretty good that Real Deal was one of the revs. In my opinion, GE and one other person are the remaining revs, and I have a pretty good guess who the other person is, but I'll hold off on that for a bit to see how today develops.