Survivor:Challenge/Common Thread (GAME OVER! FEED BACK WELCOME)

[Poli]

Hmm...let me look something up.

[Passacaglia]

Chief complaint was I didn't want the wolves to know we were "wolfless"...though if you talked about it amongst yourselves, then a wolf likely knew, right?

Oh, you mean that was your chief complaint with us revealing the info? Yeah, we talked about it among ourselves, so definitely one wolf knew. But it we didn't want to tell the other two wolves, in case they didn't know.

[Poli]

Researching, but my run time errors have momentarily stopped so here's a post in red for you.

[SnDvls]

Oh, you mean that was your chief complaint with us revealing the info? Yeah, we talked about it among ourselves, so definitely one wolf knew. But it we didn't want to tell the other two wolves, in case they didn't know.

point of clarification: we didn't want the other 2 wolves to know and only Helsing if the wolves could talk.(3 wolves vs 5 villagers in this case) if they couldn't then only one wolf knew, but we also knew all of Oz was in the clear too and 1of 3 in Lupus was bad. (so to clear 5 and as it turns out Lathum so 6 helps to track down the wolves too.)

did any of that make sense?

[Poli]

I'm not going to find what I'm looking for before I have to leave.

[Passacaglia]

I'm not going to find what I'm looking for before I have to leave.

Maybe if you tell us what you're researching and why, we can help? Or at least just know what you're talking about?

[Poli]

Just trying to find what cronin said, but i'm hitting a thousand and one run time errors nearly every time i open a page here at work. I have to go in 5 minutes as is.

[Poli]

Found it. Meh, I don't have anything to add. Thought he may have forgot to say something.

[Passacaglia]

Heh, sorry!

[Poli]

I hate run time errors. I get them every time the page reloads or that I post, like now.

[Passacaglia]

point of clarification: we didn't want the other 2 wolves to know and only Helsing if the wolves could talk.(3 wolves vs 5 villagers in this case) if they couldn't then only one wolf knew, but we also knew all of Oz was in the clear too and 1of 3 in Lupus was bad. (so to clear 5 and as it turns out Lathum so 6 helps to track down the wolves too.)

did any of that make sense?


Not to me -- and I was there for the whole thing. :)

[Passacaglia]

I'll try my best to explain Howard's thinking in all this.

The fake post by SnDvls is pretty close to how we expected you guys to bid. When BK mentioned that one of the teams had changed their bids, we assumed it was Helsing. When the bids were announced, they were very close to ours.

Helsing:
Lesser Werewolvia - 6
Hornidia - 4
Lupinia - 5
Garouvia - 7
Lower Fang - 7


Howard:
Middle Werewolvia - 3
Hornidia - 4
Lupinia - 5
Garouvia - 3
Lower Fang - 6
Upper Fang - 5
Alpovia - 3

The bid that really caught our attention was the Lower Fang bid. A bid of 7 just beats our bid of 6. And while this was probably a coincidence, I hope you can see how this seems odd to us, especially since we thought you guys were the ones who had the redone bid. We thought that the wolves were communicating with each other and had fudged your bid to defeat ours. A Helsing win for that challenge would be huge for the wolves. Depending on how many wolves you have, the wolves could lie about the number of wolves in game, find out who had the idols, etc.

That was our thinking.


JE, can you help me out a little and explain how you guys came up with your bids?

[Mr. Wednesday]

The debate on whether (and how much) to disclose basically came down to this:
If the wolves can't communicate and the ones not in Helsing were to learn that Oz has no wolves, it would be valuable information for them.

It's interesting that path should bring up the bit about the switch, because we did make a switch relatively late on. It wouldn't have altered us winning, though, because we would have gotten 33 instead of whatever it was we landed.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Er, sorry, it was JE that posted it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Anyway... as it turns out, we were winning the challenge anyway, so the only question is whether our swap produced any side effects among the non-winning teams.

[Alan T]

The debate on whether (and how much) to disclose basically came down to this:
If the wolves can't communicate and the ones not in Helsing were to learn that Oz has no wolves, it would be valuable information for them.

It's interesting that path should bring up the bit about the switch, because we did make a switch relatively late on. It wouldn't have altered us winning, though, because we would have gotten 33 instead of whatever it was we landed.



Yep, my apologies on that. Earlier I said that we hadn't made any changes since about 3pm on. Evidentally a change was made after I left that I didn't realize. It sounds like it didn't change the end result of the contest, but the change was made at 7:07pm EST. If that sets off any alarms for people, figured it was best to get that correction out there.

[path12]

I guess we mainly are trying to figure out why we havent seen any signs of the wolves at night so far this game.

I've been pondering whether or not the wolves might not be able to night kill until the merge. If so that would explain the lack of night kills. They may have to survive until the merge to gain their full powers. Or if they can communicate now, they could help to sabotage here and there.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Multi-dola, as far as the questions go...
I verified Alan's count on Lupus.

Two players could have conspired to lie about the number of wolves in Helsing; lying about a third tribe would basically require three liars (unless someone did it as a non-wolf for reasons of their own). And anyone doing so was risking random.org calling out their question to me. :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

path, if they can't night-kill until then, why has Barkeep been handing out wolf-kill immunities in the challenges?

[SnDvls]

path, if they can't night-kill until then, why has Barkeep been handing out wolf-kill immunities in the challenges?

to throw everyone off???
to help the wolves given they only seem to have 4 members from what we've discovered??

[Jonathan Ezarik]

JE, can you help me out a little and explain how you guys came up with your bids?

No.

To expand on that lovely bit of an answer (:)), I wasn't around when the bids were decided. We talked throughout the day on a strategy, but as for the actual bids, that happened late in the day when I was gone. I got back about 30 minutes before the deadline and basically agreed with what was already in place.

[path12]

We talked back and forth about various strategies during the day. We were torn for awhile between big bids on the top few, spread out bids to pick up orphan areas, or a more focused middle approach. We were also trying to figure out a) what you guys were planning to do and b) what the other tribes might suspect we would do.

In the end I had proposed a middle strategy of 6/5/5/5/4/4 hoping to pick up four areas. I thought about tweaking that to be $3 bids on the bottom two and make the top two $7 and $6. It was suggested later (and after your fake posting) to make the bottom three bids 4/3/3 and take that extra 3 dollars and shoot for Gouvia or whatever it was called. We agreed to that. But as to the original areas, that was basically my proposal.

[path12]

path, if they can't night-kill until then, why has Barkeep been handing out wolf-kill immunities in the challenges?

I don't think it would be publicized if the wolves were under that restriction. But you have a valid point.

[Passacaglia]

Well, I think you guys were sabotaged. We would have won either way, but I think that there could have been a reason for your suspicions.

[Abe Sargent]

Hey all, just got back. My day was UBERbusy, doing intervfiews from a little after 8:00 am until a few minutes ago when I came back with my dinner - spicy chicken tenders and fries. Trying to get caught up, but I see our team basically outed our voes. I to voted CR and Blade, because I was asked to in both occasions.

-Anxiety

[path12]

Well, I think you guys were sabotaged. We would have won either way, but I think that there could have been a reason for your suspicions.

The odds of so many bids in the same places, as well as the closeness of the dollar amounts seem to be high enough to suggest more than coincidence to me. That was my reasoning last night, and why I tend to believe that the wolves can communicate.

But you guys now say that yours were set, so I guess it could be chance since I came up with most of our areas and I know I'm not a wolf. But man, there's just something really fishy about it.

[Alan T]

Path - Would you have won if you hadn't changed your bid? What time did you change your bid? Who asked you to change your bid?


Lupus team - Did you all decide if you would help protect the Seer by sending both of your protection idols to someone on team Oz to pass out?

[Alan T]

The odds of so many bids in the same places, as well as the closeness of the dollar amounts seem to be high enough to suggest more than coincidence to me. That was my reasoning last night, and why I tend to believe that the wolves can communicate.

But you guys now say that yours were set, so I guess it could be chance since I came up with most of our areas and I know I'm not a wolf. But man, there's just something really fishy about it.


Well, I was wrong on the being set, they did change one value at 7:07. The rest were set well before 3pm, but only agreed upon between 3-4pm for sure.

[Passacaglia]

The odds of so many bids in the same places, as well as the closeness of the dollar amounts seem to be high enough to suggest more than coincidence to me. That was my reasoning last night, and why I tend to believe that the wolves can communicate.

But you guys now say that yours were set, so I guess it could be chance since I came up with most of our areas and I know I'm not a wolf. But man, there's just something really fishy about it.

That was a mistake -- ours weren't set, really. We did change them. Sorry -- that's probably something I should have mentioned earlier.

[path12]

Path - Would you have won if you hadn't changed your bid? What time did you change your bid? Who asked you to change your bid?


Lupus team - Did you all decide if you would help protect the Seer by sending both of your protection idols to someone on team Oz to pass out?

I'll need to go back and see exactly how it would have changed. I do know that the original idea of adding dollars from our lower bids to our upper bids would have tied us on the $7 property and I think given us the $6 property, but I don't remember for sure on that one. And I think the one we tied at $4 would have been $5.

I do not want to mention anyone at this time. We all ended up agreeing to the changes, and I don't want to place suspicion somewhere where it might be misplaced. I have no idea which of our team is a wolf at this time.

For the timing -- we waited until the last 5 or 10 minutes to place our bid.

[path12]

Dola, I did put out my original proposal at 3:41 Pacific yesterday.

[path12]

Double dola, it was this:

M. Lower Fang - 23 - $6
N. Upper Fang - 21 - $5
H. Lupinia - 16 - $5
G. Homidia - 15 - $5
B. Middle Werewolvia - 14 - $4
O. Alpovia - 13 - $4

Then further suggested the tweak of taking a dollar off the bottom two and adding to the top two.

[Grammaticus]

I asked how many wolves were in Tribe Howard and the answer was 1

[path12]

So anyway, looking at that original bid above would have tied us on Alpovia and won Homidia for us outright. If we would have done the tweak to those number we would have tied for Lower Fang and won Upper Fang and Homidia outright. So yeah, it made a difference. But like I said, we all agreed to the changes so we're all to blame.

But you can certainly see where I get the sabotage idea from, can't you?

[SnDvls]

So anyway, looking at that original bid above would have tied us on Alpovia and won Homidia for us outright. If we would have done the tweak to those number we would have tied for Lower Fang and won Upper Fang and Homidia outright. So yeah, it made a difference. But like I said, we all agreed to the changes so we're all to blame.

But you can certainly see where I get the sabotage idea from, can't you?

did you re-figure out the numbers to see if a different winner or loser would have come with your original bids?

[Passacaglia]

So anyway, looking at that original bid above would have tied us on Alpovia and won Homidia for us outright. If we would have done the tweak to those number we would have tied for Lower Fang and won Upper Fang and Homidia outright. So yeah, it made a difference. But like I said, we all agreed to the changes so we're all to blame.

But you can certainly see where I get the sabotage idea from, can't you?

Definitely. Regardless of who came up with the idea, your numbers could have been reported to someone in our tribe, which brought about our evening change.

[path12]

did you re-figure out the numbers to see if a different winner or loser would have come with your original bids?

Yeah, but I clicked out of the sheet without saving. I can figure it again.

[SnDvls]

Yeah, but I clicked out of the sheet without saving. I can figure it again.

just did a quick one...double check me

1st Helsing w/ 68.5
2nd Howard w/ 62.5
3rd Lupus w/ 58
4th Oz w/ 57

we still would have won, but you would have been #2 and Oz would have been in tribal...double check me, but interesting

[path12]

Crap, it's gonna have to wait though. I've got to take care of something here and then I'll be heading home. I'll look at it again sometime tonight.

[SnDvls]

dola - this is with our original #'s before the late change that is being reported.

[path12]

just did a quick one...double check me

1st Helsing w/ 68.5
2nd Howard w/ 62.5
3rd Lupus w/ 58
4th Oz w/ 57

we still would have won, but you would have been #2 and Oz would have been in tribal...double check me, but interesting

That sounds about right. I think with the original tweak it might have actually have put us on top.

[Passacaglia]

just did a quick one...double check me

1st Helsing w/ 68.5
2nd Howard w/ 62.5
3rd Lupus w/ 58
4th Oz w/ 57

we still would have won, but you would have been #2 and Oz would have been in tribal...double check me, but interesting

Would the wolves want to get Oz out of tribal? They didn't know RA was going to die yet, so maybe they were hoping to get the seer?

[SnDvls]

or did RA know he was outed already? don't know I guess Oz might be able to help us here. Did RA know he was outed already before tribal?

[Passacaglia]

For the record, our change from 6 points in Greater Werewolvia to Lower Fang was proposed at 6:49 Eastern. How does that jive with what was going on in the other tribes? I'm specifically looking at Howard (who also tweaked their results at some time) and Oz (who had a known wolf in RA, and was spared tribal council because of this).

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Definitely. Regardless of who came up with the idea, your numbers could have been reported to someone in our tribe, which brought about our evening change.

What were the circumstances behind your change?

[Passacaglia]

What were the circumstances behind your change?

Someone thought that 6 points wouldn't be enough to win us GW -- that some tribe would probably bid at least 9 on it, and we'd be wasting the points. There was a fair bit of analysis done on this in the morning, yet the change was made kind of suddenly.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Someone thought that 6 points wouldn't be enough to win us GW -- that some tribe would probably bid at least 9 on it, and we'd be wasting the points. There was a fair bit of analysis done on this in the morning, yet the change was made kind of suddenly.

What happened to that $6?

[KWhit]

I'm going to give my idol to one of the Oz team members. I'm sending BK the message now.

It needs to find its way to the seer asap.

[KWhit]

Okay. It is sent.

[Passacaglia]

What happened to that $6?

It went to Lower Fang.

[Passacaglia]

It went to Lower Fang.

Oh, and obviously, it was not 6 -- actually 7. My bad.

[Lathum]

I'm going to give my idol to one of the Oz team members. I'm sending BK the message now.

It needs to find its way to the seer asap.

good move.

Oz needs to not finish last this challange, otherwise a wolf will be able to see who the seer is ( if they don't alread know)

[Lathum]

what do you all think about lupin throwing the challenge?

[KWhit]

I think it's a horrible idea.

[KWhit]

I think it's a horrible idea.


Although maybe I'm being a little hasty. If I had some idea of who the wolf was in my team I'd be all for it. But I just don't know who it is.

[Lathum]

Although maybe I'm being a little hasty. If I had some idea of who the wolf was in my team I'd be all for it. But I just don't know who it is.

my line of thinking is it guarentees oz doesn't finish last and it mathmaticaly gives us the best shot at getting a wolf

[path12]

Oh, and obviously, it was not 6 -- actually 7. My bad.

And if your timing is correct, that's less then ten minutes after I made the original proposal with Lower Fang at $6.

[Swaggs]

Although maybe I'm being a little hasty. If I had some idea of who the wolf was in my team I'd be all for it. But I just don't know who it is.

If it isn't you, I think I have a pretty good idea who it is.

[Passacaglia]

If it isn't you, I think I have a pretty good idea who it is.


hahahahahahaha

[Passacaglia]

And if your timing is correct, that's less then ten minutes after I made the original proposal with Lower Fang at $6.


When did you make your proposal? In what time zone? How likely was it that your proposal be passed through the entire tribe? When did it become finalized?

[Mr. Wednesday]

We had already decided on the basic strategy, so I did not involve myself much in the particulars of how it was implemented.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Grammaticus proposed the modification around 7 pm EST. SnDvls was fine with that, Lathum also signed off, and it went through shortly thereafter.

[Grammaticus]

Actually, I talked about a few modifications prior to that and discussion had about died down. SnDvls said that he was going to send the PM to Barkeep and I said that I really thought we needed to stay away from the highest point province. My concern (posted in our thread) was that other teams may try a high bid strategy that would cut us out with our $7 bid. Why risk it and said we should move that bid.

Nobody replied for a while, Then SnDvl said he could go with that and asked where to shift it. Looking at the provinces that still had points in the 20s range, Lower Fang looked like the best one that we did not already have.

SnDvls said cool, then I think Lathum did too and SnDvls sent in the PM.

[Grammaticus]

Also, earlier in the day I had proposed that we post a fake bid in the challenge thread to try and throw people off. Everyone thought that was a good idea. Basically we were trying to do well in the challenge. We were all hoping it would sow confusion and make people change their bids.

There was speculation on whether or not anyone would even believe it was a mistake or not.

[st.cronin]

or did RA know he was outed already? don't know I guess Oz might be able to help us here. Did RA know he was outed already before tribal?

Not sure if this has been answered, but it was very close to deadline when he was outed. No idea if he knew he had been scanned or not.

[Grammaticus]

I think SnDvls wants to know if it was before 7pm. Can you check the time he was "outed"?

Can you share how he was outed?

[st.cronin]

It was right around that time, maybe a little bit before.

[KWhit]

If it isn't you, I think I have a pretty good idea who it is.

Heh.

Just in case there is an empath around.

I am not a wolf.

[Swaggs]

I am not a wolf.

[GoldenEagle]

I guess Anxiety's a wolf then. :)

[Alan T]

Can the Helsing wolf let us know who they are? Would make it easier for us.

Thanks.

[Barkeep49]

The ability to edit posts is ONLY for this thread an only to add color. Otherwise there is to be NO editing of posts, whether in this thread or in the tribal thread.

[Barkeep49]

Also a request: If possible please hold off sending me a private message until tomorrow morning. My inbox is perilously full and I want to back it up before I delete anything and will not be home until later tonight.

[Grammaticus]

It was right around that time, maybe a little bit before.

Can you check the exact time?

At 7:49, SnDvls said he was going to post our bid, I responded at 7:49 indicating we should avoid the big point province.

[GoldenEagle]

Can you check the exact time?

At 7:49, SnDvls said he was going to post our bid, I responded at 7:49 indicating we should avoid the big point province.

Why is the information relevant?

[Grammaticus]

Because there is speculation that my change was a wolf move to screw another team. When in fact it was a suggestiong to try and solidfy the overall strength of our bid.

If RA was identifyied or under suspicion as a wolf in your thread prior to 7:49 it takes the gas out of that theory. If you all thought RA was a wolf prior to 7:49, it would have been crazy for a wolf to change things and send Oz to tribal council which would ensure a fellow wolf gets voted out.

[Grammaticus]

Of course that is even assuming that my suggested change could have even had that kind of effect.

[path12]

When did you make your proposal? In what time zone? How likely was it that your proposal be passed through the entire tribe? When did it become finalized?

Like I said, my proposal was made at 3:41 Pacific, 6:41 Eastern. I believe we were all around in that time frame, but do not remember for sure.

[st.cronin]

Because there is speculation that my change was a wolf move to screw another team. When in fact it was a suggestiong to try and solidfy the overall strength of our bid.

If RA was identifyied or under suspicion as a wolf in your thread prior to 7:49 it takes the gas out of that theory. If you all thought RA was a wolf prior to 7:49, it would have been crazy for a wolf to change things and send Oz to tribal council which would ensure a fellow wolf gets voted out.

There is a flaw in your thinking. Oz was already IN tribal council, and once RA was outed, it was a sure thing that he was getting voted off. So the wolves would, in fact, have had good motivation to try to get Oz back in tribal council.

RA's first post after being outed was, I think, 8:07 Eastern Time.

[Abe Sargent]

I guess Anxiety's a wolf then. :)

I'm not a wolf, just busy on weekends :)

[Grammaticus]

There is a flaw in your thinking. Oz was already IN tribal council, and once RA was outed, it was a sure thing that he was getting voted off. So the wolves would, in fact, have had good motivation to try to get Oz back in tribal council.

RA's first post after being outed was, I think, 8:07 Eastern Time.

After RA was outed? How was he outed and more importantly at what time?

Also, what do you mean by BACK in tribal council? I thought your tribal council ended at 10pm or the same time as the bid challenage. Is that not true? That is what was in your tribes title thread in the WW Lobby.

[Grammaticus]

Also, what did RA say at 8:07pm? Would it have any bearing?

[Alan T]

I think what Cronin is saying, the flaw with the logic is: Why would the wolves purposely try to fix it for Oz to lose the next tribal council if the wolf in Oz was already outed?

If the wolves already knew that Raiders was going down that day's tribal council, and nothing from that day's immunity challenge would stop that, the wolves would want to rig it for Oz to go back to tribal council again the next day instead of Howard (as was what happened).

Since the wolves would want a tribe with no wolves to be in tribal challenge.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Am I correct in thinking, then, that the switch we made in no way favored the wolves?

It didn't alter us winning (more questions to ask = more information) and it might have gotten a no-wolf tribe out of tribal council in favor of a tribe that has a wolf in it?

[st.cronin]

After RA was outed? How was he outed and more importantly at what time?

Also, what do you mean by BACK in tribal council? I thought your tribal council ended at 10pm or the same time as the bid challenage. Is that not true? That is what was in your tribes title thread in the WW Lobby.

Maybe I'm not understanding your thinking. When the bids were being submitted, we were in tribal council. An ozzite was getting voted off REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME OF THAT CHALLENGE. Had we lost that challenge, and RA been voted off, we would have been the only tribe without a wolf (I believe), and been going back to tribal council.

[Grammaticus]

Maybe I'm not understanding your thinking. When the bids were being submitted, we were in tribal council. An ozzite was getting voted off REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME OF THAT CHALLENGE. Had we lost that challenge, and RA been voted off, we would have been the only tribe without a wolf (I believe), and been going back to tribal council.

Alright, I understand.

[Passacaglia]

There is a flaw in your thinking. Oz was already IN tribal council, and once RA was outed, it was a sure thing that he was getting voted off. So the wolves would, in fact, have had good motivation to try to get Oz back in tribal council.

RA's first post after being outed was, I think, 8:07 Eastern Time.

Thanks, cronin. When was RA outed by the seer? I see what you're saying about Oz being the tribe with no wolves, however -- at 7:07 Eastern, could the wolves have still been thinking RA would survive?

[Passacaglia]

Geez, I think I may be overconfusing myself here. So this change we made sent Howard to the tribal council instead of Oz -- can anyone in the Howard tribe think of why the wolves would have wanted to send you to the tribal council?

[st.cronin]

Thanks, cronin. When was RA outed by the seer? I see what you're saying about Oz being the tribe with no wolves, however -- at 7:07 Eastern, could the wolves have still been thinking RA would survive?

Probably not. He didn't put up much of a fight. It's possible that he was taking one for the team, but without being in the other tribes, it's not easy for us to make sense of HOW.

[Passacaglia]

Probably not. He didn't put up much of a fight. It's possible that he was taking one for the team, but without being in the other tribes, it's not easy for us to make sense of HOW.

How could you say 'probably not'? As far as we know, RA hadn't acknowledged he was outed until 8:07? How could the wolves not think he survived at 7:07?

[st.cronin]

How could you say 'probably not'? As far as we know, RA hadn't acknowledged he was outed until 8:07? How could the wolves not think he survived at 7:07?

Ah, sorry, I had my times confused. At that time, the wolves would not have known RA was outed, UNLESS he knew that he had been scanned. Let me see if RA had posted earlier in the day.

[Passacaglia]

Ah, sorry, I had my times confused. At that time, the wolves would not have known RA was outed, UNLESS he knew that he had been scanned. Let me see if RA had posted earlier in the day.

Why won't you just mention when he was actually outed? Instead, you keep focusing on when RA posts. I can understand that he might not have seen that he was outed until he was "on the board" but he also might have seen it before he logged in or something.

Also, why do you think he didn't put up much of a fight?

[st.cronin]

Sorry, I'm trying to be helpful, but I'm in a different time zone than most of you.

He was outed around 7:50. He had posted earlier in the day, so depending on how likely you think it is that he knew he had been scanned...

And he didn't put up much of a fight at all. He didn't deny that he was a wolf, for one thing.

[ImTheCrew]

why is it so dead on the weekends?

[st.cronin]

It usually is. Some people don't have net access on the weekends, some people go away on the weekends.

[Lathum]

so what does everyone think about every tribe but OZ throwing the challange?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Geez, I think I may be overconfusing myself here. So this change we made sent Howard to the tribal council instead of Oz -- can anyone in the Howard tribe think of why the wolves would have wanted to send you to the tribal council?


One of the things I brought up in our thread when path told us his concerns was that I couldn't see how us going back into tribal council benefited the wolves. Oz, yes, that would make sense. But us? Especially if the wolves know that there is one wolf in our tribe and with only four members, there's a 25% chance the wolf will be voted off. So why not try to sabotage Oz or even Helsing, since the chances of getting a wolf are more remote than us or Lupus?

The only thing that makes any sense is if there is someone in our tribe with a special role that the rest of us don't know about. Otherwise, I have absolutely no idea why this happened.

[st.cronin]

It's possible the wolves weren't attempting to sabotage any particular team. At this point in the game, there just doesn't seem to be enough reward to justify the risk.

I think the most sensible "wolf" strategy at this point in the game is to appear to actually be helpful.

[Lathum]

It's possible the wolves weren't attempting to sabotage any particular team. At this point in the game, there just doesn't seem to be enough reward to justify the risk.

I think the most sensible "wolf" strategy at this point in the game is to appear to actually be helpful.

I agree

[ntndeacon]

Geez, I think I may be overconfusing myself here. So this change we made sent Howard to the tribal council instead of Oz -- can anyone in the Howard tribe think of why the wolves would have wanted to send you to the tribal council?


This is nothing but wild speculation. so should be taken with a pretty large bit of salt. what if the wolf in Howard believes himself safe from the vote, and can demonstrate it to his compatriots by his help to his tribe. AAnd maybe that he is in the bast position in terms of most trusted.

[Abe Sargent]

so what does everyone think about every tribe but OZ throwing the challange?

I'm not okay with that because this is a challenge that has an impact beyond this game. Oz wins or loses - its a game. The challenge, on the other hand, lasts. So why throw it?


-Abe

[Lathum]

I'm not okay with that because this is a challenge that has an impact beyond this game. Oz wins or loses - its a game. The challenge, on the other hand, lasts. So why throw it?


-Abe

I have no idea what that means

[Grammaticus]

Anxiety,

After the challenge is over, the Wiki can still be updated for general support of text sims, etc.

Right now Oz should not go to tribal council.

[Alan T]

I can tell by the underwhelming response from the Lupus and Howard tribes that they aren't interested in letting Oz win the contest and then just fully update the wikipedia articles after the deadline is over.

Its ashame, since that seems to be the best way to help the survivors this game, since this is a very critical challenge to make sure Oz doesn't finish in last place. My guess is whoever on Howard or Lupus is pushing to try to beat everyone on this challenge is the wolf.

[Alan T]

Well either way, we likely will only be submitting something only partial for our entry. We have a much more full entry completed, however the worst thing in this particular contest would be for Oz to lose. I will just go after the contest is over and finish submitting the full entry for wikipedia for our topic so the work doesn't go to waste.

I am not saying every contest from here on needs to be tossed for Oz, as we are still playing survivor, but in this contest specifically Oz needs to not finish last. I'll encourage Howard and Lupus to look at whoever is pushing to try to beat Oz in this contest as a candidate to vote off later.

[Passacaglia]

One of the things I brought up in our thread when path told us his concerns was that I couldn't see how us going back into tribal council benefited the wolves. Oz, yes, that would make sense. But us? Especially if the wolves know that there is one wolf in our tribe and with only four members, there's a 25% chance the wolf will be voted off. So why not try to sabotage Oz or even Helsing, since the chances of getting a wolf are more remote than us or Lupus?

The only thing that makes any sense is if there is someone in our tribe with a special role that the rest of us don't know about. Otherwise, I have absolutely no idea why this happened.


Maybe your wolf feels least likely to be voted out in tribal council.

[Passacaglia]

It might be too close to deadline for this, but Howard and Lupus -- do you realize why Oz should not lose THIS challenge in particular?

[Poli]

I do. :)

[GoldenEagle]

Can we get a two hour extension on the entry? Honestly, I did not feel like doing this challenge on the weekend. It seemed more like "work", instead of fun, which is what I look for in WW.

I meant to do it this morning but I slept in. If we can get an extension, I will put something together.

[Lathum]

can we trade our entry with Oz?

[Alan T]

I'm ok with Oz getting our entry

[Barkeep49]

Can we get a two hour extension on the entry? Honestly, I did not feel like doing this challenge on the weekend. It seemed more like "work", instead of fun, which is what I look for in WW.

I meant to do it this morning but I slept in. If we can get an extension, I will put something together.

An extension should be fine. I've heard some negative feedback about this challenge. On the board from which I got the survivor concept this was one of the most popular challenges, so I'm sorry it's felt like work here.

[GoldenEagle]

An extension should be fine. I've heard some negative feedback about this challenge. On the board from which I got the survivor concept this was one of the most popular challenges, so I'm sorry it's felt like work here.

I do not think it would have been a bad challenge if it was done during the weekday. But on the weekend I (and most of Oz) wanted to party.

[GoldenEagle]

I am putting together something now for the wiki.

[Alan T]

I am putting together something now for the wiki.



Please do something good at least. We went in to this trying to make it so you all won't finish last.. but you have to submit something. If you all lose, then this is a bad thing for all of the survivors in this game

[Swaggs]

It might be too close to deadline for this, but Howard and Lupus -- do you realize why Oz should not lose THIS challenge in particular?

Absolutely. It makes very good sense, numerically, to get a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance to knock out a wolf, rather than forcing Oz to make the decision to vote out a non-wolf.

However, from our end, it also gives each of us a 1 in 3 chance to get voted out. We have put a lot of time and effort into this competition and I don't think any of us want to leave the game if we can help it.

I would want us or Howard (hell, I still want Howard to toss it :) ) to lose if I were on the other side, but it is not easy to be chivalrous, after competing like we have in this game, when the odds are pretty good that the game will end for you as a result. If I knew for certain that we would get the wolf with a loss, I would be much more likely to consider it, but I know that I am not the wolf and I also know that (based on past votes and discussions) I am likely next on the chopping block.

[Alan T]

Absolutely. It makes very good sense, numerically, to get a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance to knock out a wolf, rather than forcing Oz to make the decision to vote out a non-wolf.

However, from our end, it also gives each of us a 1 in 3 chance to get voted out. We have put a lot of time and effort into this competition and I don't think any of us want to leave the game if we can help it.

I would want us or Howard (hell, I still want Howard to toss it :) ) to lose if I were on the other side, but it is not easy to be chivalrous, after competing like we have in this game, when the odds are pretty good that the game will end for you as a result. If I knew for certain that we would get the wolf with a loss, I would be much more likely to consider it, but I know that I am not the wolf and I also know that (based on past votes and discussions) I am likely next on the chopping block.

You didn't get the point.

The point isn't that oz has to win. The point is Oz can't finish last. I never said any other team should have to finish last, but Oz can't finish last.

However even with all of this effort we've tried to keep this from happening, if Oz doesn't even submit anything.. well bleh.

Because of the reward of this challenge, oz just can't finish last. Since then a wolf can see who the seer is, and that would be disasterous.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Because of the reward of this challenge, oz just can't finish last. Since then a wolf can see who the seer is, and that would be disasterous.

I take it you don't think the wolves can communicate with each other?

[Swaggs]

You didn't get the point.

The point isn't that oz has to win. The point is Oz can't finish last. I never said any other team should have to finish last, but Oz can't finish last.

However even with all of this effort we've tried to keep this from happening, if Oz doesn't even submit anything.. well bleh.

Because of the reward of this challenge, oz just can't finish last. Since then a wolf can see who the seer is, and that would be disasterous.


I get the point.

I'm just explaining why we did not volunteer to to finish last, even though it has repeatedly been suggested.

I can live with people disagreeing with it and not liking it, but I was just explaining why, since the suggestion had been repeated and not really addressed.

[Alan T]

I take it you don't think the wolves can communicate with each other?


Thats one of the theories thats been brought up several times.

[Passacaglia]

I take it you don't think the wolves can communicate with each other?

I have no idea, and I think the rest of my tribe has no idea as well -- but we've been mulling over all the possibilities. In this case, if Oz's thread is revealed, and the wolves can communicate with each other, then they find out who the seer is.

[KWhit]

I have no idea, and I think the rest of my tribe has no idea as well -- but we've been mulling over all the possibilities. In this case, if Oz's thread is revealed, and the wolves can communicate with each other, then they find out who the seer is.

I just want to reiterate that I gave my idol to Oz, so the seer should be protected from a wolf attack anyway.

Also, Oz has 5 people in it. We have 3. If they can't put together a decent enough article to beat our entry when they have almost twice as many people to split the load, then they deserve to lose the challenge.

[KWhit]

I have no idea, and I think the rest of my tribe has no idea as well -- but we've been mulling over all the possibilities. In this case, if Oz's thread is revealed, and the wolves can communicate with each other, then they find out who the seer is.

If they can communicate with each other, then don't you think RA has already told the other wolves who the seer is?

[KWhit]

If they can communicate with each other, then don't you think RA has already told the other wolves who the seer is?

Before he was voted off, I mean.

[path12]

Its ashame, since that seems to be the best way to help the survivors this game, since this is a very critical challenge to make sure Oz doesn't finish in last place. My guess is whoever on Howard or Lupus is pushing to try to beat everyone on this challenge is the wolf.

Considering the fact that Howard hasn't even decided on which game, much less put anything together, it's safe to say that we're not really pushing much to beat anyone on this challenge. It's been a busy weekend and none of us has been around much.

[Passacaglia]

If they can communicate with each other, then don't you think RA has already told the other wolves who the seer is?

That's a good point.

[SnDvls]

I just want to reiterate that I gave my idol to Oz, so the seer should be protected from a wolf attack anyway.

Also, Oz has 5 people in it. We have 3. If they can't put together a decent enough article to beat our entry when they have almost twice as many people to split the load, then they deserve to lose the challenge.

can you pass the idol to a group and it protects them as a whole? I thought you had to pass it to a specific person?
I thought I read you pass it to a person...I'll have to double check it again.

[Barkeep49]

Pages have been submitted to the judges. Howard has been DQ for failing to submit a topic. If Oz has not updated their page prior to my receiving both judge's scores, they will also be DQ.

[Barkeep49]

Night actions are being accepted between now and 9 AM tomorrow morning.

[KWhit]

can you pass the idol to a group and it protects them as a whole? I thought you had to pass it to a specific person?
I thought I read you pass it to a person...I'll have to double check it again.

I passed it to a specific person. That person (presumably) passed it to the seer.

[Grammaticus]

Barkeep, what happens if two teams are DQ'd? Does the winning team get to read both threads or is their a tie breaker?

[Alan T]

Lupus team, I think whoever wins the challenge should make an agreement if possible to choose Howard's thread to review as opposed to Oz's thread. It appears Oz didn't do anything and will be DQ'd also unless there was an entry update I didn't see.

[Poli]

Sorry, fellas. Taking care of a wife who is having a colon something surgery tomorrow while I'm on my way back to Chicago. I'd have tried my hand at something, anything, if I had the time.

[Poli]

Dola:

She likely has Crohn's disease, the surgery I believe is to confirm it.

[Marathoner]

Dola:

She likely has Crohn's disease, the surgery I believe is to confirm it.

Sorry to hear that, I hope she does well.

[SnDvls]

Sorry, fellas. Taking care of a wife who is having a colon something surgery tomorrow while I'm on my way back to Chicago. I'd have tried my hand at something, anything, if I had the time.

OOC: sorry to hear that AE...take care of her and yourself...it's much more important than a game

[Alan T]

OOC: sorry to hear that AE...take care of her and yourself...it's much more important than a game

"

[st.cronin]

Good luck ardent.

[Poli]

Rough part is having burned what leave I had when Will passed a few weeks ago, I have absolutely no options as to be with my wife during this time except the weekend.

It really sucks I can't be there for her tomorrow.

[Swaggs]

Lupus team, I think whoever wins the challenge should make an agreement if possible to choose Howard's thread to review as opposed to Oz's thread. It appears Oz didn't do anything and will be DQ'd also unless there was an entry update I didn't see.

I think that is definitely a good idea.

I'm on board with that and cannot see why my teammates would not be.

[Swaggs]

Sorry to hear that, AE.

Thoughts will be with you and your wife.

[Grammaticus]

Hang in there AE, I hope all goes well.

[Grammaticus]

Another approach to take in case the winner gets to view both threads is to agree that nobody will view Oz's thread. That way if they (Oz) catch anyone in there from the winning team, they can pretty much assume that is the wolf.

[Abe Sargent]

Another approach to take in case the winner gets to view both threads is to agree that nobody will view Oz's thread. That way if they (Oz) catch anyone in there from the winning team, they can pretty much assume that is the wolf.

A valid point.

[st.cronin]

Another approach to take in case the winner gets to view both threads is to agree that nobody will view Oz's thread. That way if they (Oz) catch anyone in there from the winning team, they can pretty much assume that is the wolf.

It might be a good idea to post this in the individual tribal threads, as well. That way somebody would be less likely to use "I didn't see that post!" as an excuse.

[SnDvls]

so do we know the results yet?

[Poli]

Made a few calls. I begged, borrowed, and dealed my way into having tomorrow off.

[Passacaglia]

Sorry to hear about your wife, AE. Hope all goes well.

[Barkeep49]

Made a few calls. I begged, borrowed, and dealed my way into having tomorrow off.
I'm glad to hear that. I know several people with Chroen's and it's tough, that's for sure. Good luck.

[Barkeep49]

Well it looks like it was a tough weekend for our tribes. Poor Oz seems to have slowly fallen apart. While there were those who wished to throw the challenge for them, Oz couldn't even minimally update their page. This on top of Howard's inability to even select a topic. It looks like not one, but two tribes will be heading to council.

But we must still have a winner.

We had two pages, and two judges: Eaglesfan and Hoopsguy.

Let's look at what they had to say about each of the pages:

For Lupus there was an update of the Text Sim (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Text_sim) page. Here are our judges' comments:
Depth of Information: Very nice addition to what was there. Also, this is a nice balance of additional information without getting caught in minutiae. Also, I applaud the very nice list of links for text sims. Would have been a 5 if there were more blurbs about other text sims besides FOF and FM.

Clarity of Writing: I took this category to include accuracy of information as well as style and grammar of writing. The style and grammar are good and at some spots excellent. However, I don't buy the argument that Starship Tycoon or the other listed games are really text sims, even though their graphics are rudimentary. Therefore, accuracy of information hurt this score.

Presentation/Organization: Very nice presentation on the links. I like the organization throughout the links. The organization in the main article is logical as well. Overall, very good but could have had a bit more flow in the transition from the 2nd paragraph to the 3rd.

Overall: The paragraph on tycoon games hurt this effort, but I do appreciate the strong quality of writing, organization, and additional information that was added to this article. Very solid.

And hoopsguy

Depth of Information: there is information on a number of games here, as well as a ton of links. I like the updated definition of "text sims" much better than the original. The topic makes it challenging to provide depth, but at the very least there is width of information.

Clarity of Writing: I liked the introduction and the conclusion quite a bit, but struggled with the body of this document. There were parts that definitely felt like they were written by members of FOFC rather than a random Wiki person (games as spreadsheets).

Presentation/Organization: I think this was a pretty daunting task, as there are so many games that can be classified as text sims. The author tried to group them under four categories (sports sim, tycoon, political sim, real world) with moderate success. Some games really defy easy classification, challenging these arbitrary barriers. There is a good collection of links provided for someone to review existing text sims.

Overall Improvements (or lack thereof): had a ton of ground to cover, page is significantly better than the relative placeholder that previously existed. However, the efforts to classify the text sims felt a little bit forced - where would you classify something like Space Rangers 2? Is this strictly a "tycoon" game? Don't many of the sports games involve a "tycoon" mode? That categories just didn't work for me. I like the new page a ton better than the old one, but it still does not feel quite polished yet.

The scores were (with the three sub-categories out of five and the overall score out of ten)


Depth of Information:
Eagles 4
Hoops 4
Clarity of Writing:
Eagles 3
Hoops 3.5
Presentation/Organization:
Eagles 4
Hoops 4
Overall:
Eagles 7
Hoops 7.5

Total Score: 37

And then we had Helsing's OOTP entry. First the comments.


Depth of Information:
Good history of the franchise. Right-pane graphic gives current game information. Covers other OOTP spin-offs, merger. Given the length of the page, I think there is appropriate depth.

Clarity of Writing: best aspect of this article. I checked against the OOTP site to see if they were directly lifting content from there, but if so I didn't find it. It jumped nicely from topic to topic, with good balance given to past/present/future.

Presentation/Organization: By and large, the page feels like a Wikipedia page. The graphic for the system requirements is hardly innovative, but it helps space the page in a comfortable manner. The content within the sub-headings is consistent with what is promised (game play paragraphs talk about game play, customization, and management options).


Overall Improvements (or lack thereof): Strong offering. I would have liked to see a little more content across the board, but I wonder if I'm just nit-picking here.

And Eagles

Depth of Information: Very solid information about the game play, the background of the series, and external links.

Clarity of Writing: I don't see any grammatical mistakes. The writing is clean, descriptive, and flows nicely.

Organization/Presentation: The sidebar on the right side with the logo and key information below it is very informative and looks great. I would have liked to have seen more of this from the other 2 efforts.

Overall: Markus should be very glad that this competition inspired some talented people to improve on the OOTP's Wiki entry which was so bad that it was heading for deletion based on the link the WW Mods gave me.

The scores were:
Depth of Information:
Eagles 5
Hoops 4.5
Clarity of Writing:
Eagles 5
Hoops 5
Organization/Presentation:
Eagles 5
Hoops 5
Overall:
Eagles 10
Hoops 9.5

Total: 49

And so with a near perfect performance Helsing is once again our winner and continues its streak of avoiding tribal council.

Tomorrow's challenge is neither time sensitive nor time intensive. It will be up a little late (blame Alan for keeping me until 2 AM). Night results will also be up at that time.

[Alan T]

Sure, always my faault!

[Lathum]

Good job Helsing!!

[Alan T]

For Howard/Oz .. what we were told is we can view both of your temporary threads, but not your normal tribe only thread. So nothing from the past, and only new stuff today.

I've tossed out the idea among my tribe that we all make a pact to not look in the Oz thread today to give you all freedom to talk about things, but that hasn't been agreed upon yet, so just a heads up.

[KWhit]

Wow. Oz couldn't even make a single update to their pages?

Please don't ask anyone to throw a challenge for Oz again.

[Passacaglia]

Just throwing out an idea for Oz. Even though we've all agreed not to read your thread, I wouldn't assume that you guys are safe -- it's a fair bet that the wolf in our midst will violate that agreement. Does everyone in Oz know who the seer is? Perhaps everyone in the group can reveal that a particular person is or is not a wolf -- everyone else will be submitting a fake reveal, and you guys only have to pay attention to the seer's. Of course, if you guys tell us who has been scanned in public, then whoever sees your thread will know who the seer is -- so maybe it's all worthless. Just tossing out ideas.

[Barkeep49]

C'mon in everyone. You'll notice that ntn was voted off last night.

Today's challenge is a simple reward challenge. In Werewolf you must learn to think like others. Knowing how to predict people's actions and thoughts gives you a large advantage, especially as a wolf. And so for this challenge we'll be playing a game of "Family Feud".

I surveyed people about various questions. Who I surveyed is a little different for each question and is noted. I multiplied the actual answers so each question had a possible 100 points (so if I surveyed 20 people, and you guess an answer which got 2 responses, you'll get 10 points). At least two people had to list an answer in order for it to appear on the board.

Questions were:

30 library patrons in the Youth Services section of a library were asked: Which is the best Harry Potter book? (6 answers)

40 fourth graders were asked: What is your favorite food? (5 answers)

20 teachers were asked: Which movie will win best picture? (5 answers)

20 poker players were asked: Who is the best poker player? (4 answers)

30 adults (combination of library patrons and teachers) were asked: What time do you get up in the morning (to the nearest half hour)? (6 answers)

The winning tribe will receive the ability to stay strong for a couple of the tribulations which await you. Survivors ready? Go!

[st.cronin]

Wow. Oz couldn't even make a single update to their pages?

Please don't ask anyone to throw a challenge for Oz again.

C'mon in everyone. You'll notice that Raiders and Blade were voted out at yesterday's tribal council.

Today's challenge is a little different. It's time to give back. In a moment I am going to list 5 wikipedia articles all about different sports text sims, or even the text sim page itself. All are rather sad examples compared to such good articles as the one on FM. Your job is as a tribe to chose one of the articles and to improve it. One of the articles is in such dire straights that it is being considered for deletion. Articles will be given on a First Come, First Serve basis, so once a tribe claims an article another tribe may not claim it. Since this is a more time intensive challenge, you have until Sunday at Noon to complete it. You may continue to work on it after that, but there is no guarantee that judges will see any changes after that time. After that time our panel of guest judges will rate you on:
Depth of Information
Clarity of Writing
Presentation/Organization

The titles you have to chose from are:
FOF Taken by Oz
OOTP Taken by Helsing
Text Sims
MF
Fast Break Basketball/Fast Break College Basketball (Page needs to be started)

This is both a reward and immunity challenge. The losing team will go to tribal council. Only one catch. The tribal council and their tribal thread for the day, will be accessible by the winning team and all voting will be done publicly. So the winning tribe should gain some real insight into how the losing team is operating. Not to mention the winning team is once again immune from wolf attack.

Survivor's ready? Go!


Maybe I'm dense, but I don't see where it says the article has to be posted to wikipedia. We had an article posted in the other thread. I'm pretty dismayed by this ruling.

[Passacaglia]

I know it was asked somewhere if it had to be updated on wiki, or just submitted somewhere, and Barkeep answered to submit it. It might have been in our tribal thread, though.

[Passacaglia]

Er, he answered to submit it to wiki.

[Barkeep49]

C'mon in everyone. You'll notice that Raiders and Blade were voted out at yesterday's tribal council.


Maybe I'm dense, but I don't see where it says the article has to be posted to wikipedia. We had an article posted in the other thread. I'm pretty dismayed by this ruling.
I'm responding in your temp tribal thread

[Alan T]

Just throwing out an idea for Oz. Even though we've all agreed not to read your thread, I wouldn't assume that you guys are safe -- it's a fair bet that the wolf in our midst will violate that agreement. Does everyone in Oz know who the seer is? Perhaps everyone in the group can reveal that a particular person is or is not a wolf -- everyone else will be submitting a fake reveal, and you guys only have to pay attention to the seer's. Of course, if you guys tell us who has been scanned in public, then whoever sees your thread will know who the seer is -- so maybe it's all worthless. Just tossing out ideas.


Eh, the more I think about it, the more to me its either a "you risk outing yourself today" or "don't risk outing yourself today" type thing. After thinking about it a bit, its probably best just to play it safe and even if the seer found another wolf last night, just don't come out with it today and wait till tommorrow back in your own tribal thread to do it.

I still think its best to follow through with a pact to not view Oz's thread as there is no wolf there, and focus mainly on Howard's thread today.

[SnDvls]

it was asked by me in this thread post # 1294 I believe and the response was the next post.

Barkeep - do we need to put our entry in wikipedia or in our tribe thread or where?



On wikipedia

[Passacaglia]

Eh, the more I think about it, the more to me its either a "you risk outing yourself today" or "don't risk outing yourself today" type thing. After thinking about it a bit, its probably best just to play it safe and even if the seer found another wolf last night, just don't come out with it today and wait till tommorrow back in your own tribal thread to do it.

I still think its best to follow through with a pact to not view Oz's thread as there is no wolf there, and focus mainly on Howard's thread today.

I agree that it is best to follow through with this pact -- I just don't trust the wolf to follow it, and want to advise the seer of that.

[st.cronin]

Does it make sense for the seer to come out if he found a wolf in the tribe which is in council? (Howard, I believe)

After all, there might be another situation like this, where the seer can tell a tribe who to vote for.

[Passacaglia]

Does it make sense for the seer to come out if he found a wolf in the tribe which is in council? (Howard, I believe)

After all, there might be another situation like this, where the seer can tell a tribe who to vote for.

That's a tough one. I want to say yes, depending on the seer's comfort level, or the tribe's comfort level. But I don't trust this pact to stop our wolf, who wouldn't be breaking any rules by logging into Oz as a guest or something. Also, Howard had 1 wolf out of 4 -- I have a feeling I know who's getting voted out this time there (not from reading their temporary thread, just a hunch), so if it's someone other than him, you might want to consider it.

[st.cronin]

That's a tough one. I want to say yes, depending on the seer's comfort level, or the tribe's comfort level. But I don't trust this pact to stop our wolf, who wouldn't be breaking any rules by logging into Oz as a guest or something. Also, Howard had 1 wolf out of 4 -- I have a feeling I know who's getting voted out this time there (not from reading their temporary thread, just a hunch), so if it's someone other than him, you might want to consider it.

Obviously though if the answer is yes, we would want people to view the oz thread. Otherwise there's no point - the wolf already knows who the wolf is.

Also it might be helpful if Howard indicated who was most likely (and least likely) to get voted off.

[Alan T]

Without knowing more about the situation in Oz, I personally think if you all don't plan on voting off your seer today (which I assume is the case), and the seer has both idols that Lupus said they passed, he should be safe to last another day.

I think the safe route is just hold on to the information today and try to find the next wolf. I think the seer is in a very safe position right now as long as no one does anything foolish, so just play it safe.

[Passacaglia]

Obviously though if the answer is yes, we would want people to view the oz thread. Otherwise there's no point - the wolf already knows who the wolf is.

Also it might be helpful if Howard indicated who was most likely (and least likely) to get voted off.

I'm not sure if I follow you here, but my concern is that the Helsing wolf will find out who the seer is.

[Alan T]

To clarify my last statement.. if the seer has both wolf idols, he theoretically should be safe until tribes merge later on. So I just wouldn't do something that puts him at later risk before you need to. This likely isn't a case where the seer could possibly die any night.. he has wolf protection.

[st.cronin]

I'm not sure if I follow you here, but my concern is that the Helsing wolf will find out who the seer is.

Right, but in the hypothetical scenario we want the howard non-wolves to read the thread. Otherwise they won't know who to vote for.

[Passacaglia]

Right, but in the hypothetical scenario we want the howard non-wolves to read the thread. Otherwise they won't know who to vote for.

Howard can't read your thread -- only Helsing. So I guess we're saying it's up to you guys to tell Howard in here, since none of us are looking at it.

[st.cronin]

ah

well, still, Howard should post in here who is most likely/least likely to get voted off ... that way our seer can have a say, if appropriate

[Passacaglia]

ah

well, still, Howard should post in here who is most likely/least likely to get voted off ... that way our seer can have a say, if appropriate

Yeah, it shouldn't be too hard for them to do that, since there are only three of them. I can tell you who I think is off next, but I probably shouldn't try to affect their votes.

[Lathum]

So is anyone else on board with me that the wolves can't communicate and there won't be any night kills until we merge?

[Alan T]

So is anyone else on board with me that the wolves can't communicate and there won't be any night kills until we merge?

Well so far with no night kills, I'm begining to believe that there are no night kills till merger. I still am not sure about the thought that wolves can't communicate to each other, but I think it has to remain a possibility that we keep in mind.

Initially I thought there might be other explanations for no wolf kills, but the longer this goes, the less likely I think that is.

[Passacaglia]

if the wolves can't kill (or do anything) until the merger, I wonder if they even know that they are wolves? Maybe that's why RA didn't really say anything when he was outed -- he was surprised as the rest of us?

[Alan T]

if the wolves can't kill (or do anything) until the merger, I wonder if they even know that they are wolves? Maybe that's why RA didn't really say anything when he was outed -- he was surprised as the rest of us?


My recollection might be wrong, but I thought Oz said that Raiders did admit to being a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Sorry, I'm trying to be helpful, but I'm in a different time zone than most of you.

He was outed around 7:50. He had posted earlier in the day, so depending on how likely you think it is that he knew he had been scanned...

And he didn't put up much of a fight at all. He didn't deny that he was a wolf, for one thing.

This is post 1593. I think that's where I assumed that he didn't outright admit he was a wolf -- just that he didn't deny it. You could be right, that he knew he was a wolf -- but to neither admit nor deny it seems weird.

[Passacaglia]

I'm trying to think how I would respond if I were RA, and I thought I was a villager, and someone said they were the seer, and I was a wolf. Would I think it a wolf ploy? Probably. But maybe as close to deadline as he found out about it, he figured that there was nothing he could do, anyway? Even saying "I'm not a wolf" after you're voted out would be pointless -- who would believe him anyway? Just some thoughts.

[Barkeep49]

Team answers may either be PM'ed to me or clearly posted in the tribal thread. Deadline is 10 PM

[path12]

So is Oz saying that we didn't get the wolf yesterday? I just want to make sure of that, because I felt pretty confident that we got one in ntn.

[Alan T]

I'm trying to think how I would respond if I were RA, and I thought I was a villager, and someone said they were the seer, and I was a wolf. Would I think it a wolf ploy? Probably. But maybe as close to deadline as he found out about it, he figured that there was nothing he could do, anyway? Even saying "I'm not a wolf" after you're voted out would be pointless -- who would believe him anyway? Just some thoughts.



Well remember at the time, none of us knew that he wouldn't be revealed as a wolf when he died. If he did, I am pretty sure he could have performed some other trickery or caused doubt.

If you remember the way they posted it, he gave them a "shocker" and I could swear I remember a few times where they say he finally admitted he was a wolf.

[Alan T]

So is Oz saying that we didn't get the wolf yesterday? I just want to make sure of that, because I felt pretty confident that we got one in ntn.


Can I ask out of curiosity why you felt ntn was the wolf? Just as an outside observer so far, if I had to guess who the wolf in Howard was, it was your actions that made me feel the most wolfish. However I was only limited to what I saw in this thread, so no idea if things changed for within your thread.

[Passacaglia]

Can I ask out of curiosity why you felt ntn was the wolf? Just as an outside observer so far, if I had to guess who the wolf in Howard was, it was your actions that made me feel the most wolfish. However I was only limited to what I saw in this thread, so no idea if things changed for within your thread.

Interesting...path seemed the least wolf-like in Howard to me. Just shows that I am getting more and more list in this game. :confused:

[path12]

Can I ask out of curiosity why you felt ntn was the wolf? Just as an outside observer so far, if I had to guess who the wolf in Howard was, it was your actions that made me feel the most wolfish. However I was only limited to what I saw in this thread, so no idea if things changed for within your thread.

Well Alan, let's be fair -- I usually seem wolfish to you, so you can't be surprised by your feelings there. ;)

You know my feelings about the bid challenge. ntn drove the changes to our original bid. Combined with some suspicious comments in hindsight to that challenge, and that he later tried to distance himself somewhat from those changes, I felt he was by far our most likely wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Well Alan, let's be fair -- I usually seem wolfish to you, so you can't be surprised by your feelings there. ;)

You know my feelings about the bid challenge. ntn drove the changes to our original bid. Combined with some suspicious comments in hindsight to that challenge, and that he later tried to distance himself somewhat from those changes, I felt he was by far our most likely wolf.

So you're still looking at those changes as being wolfish? Why would a wolf want to put himself in danger by putting his own tribe in council?

[Alan T]

I don't understand that either. Why would a wolf want to purposely put himself at danger and give life to another tribe that had 0 wolves in it? I still don't get that, and no one has given me a good answer to it yet 3 days later.

[Passacaglia]

I don't understand that either. Why would a wolf want to purposely put himself at danger and give life to another tribe that had 0 wolves in it? I still don't get that, and no one has given me a good answer to it yet 3 days later.

Word. I feel like I have to take a lot of responsibility for bringing this to the forefront, but it's really just looking like an unfortunate coincidence.

[path12]

I don't understand that either. Why would a wolf want to purposely put himself at danger and give life to another tribe that had 0 wolves in it? I still don't get that, and no one has given me a good answer to it yet 3 days later.

I don't have a good answer to that either, and admit that's the big hole in my theory. I just feel that what happened was far too high of odds to just have been coincidence. I could be wrong, but it really just seems way improbable that we just happened to land on the same things with such close bids.

[Passacaglia]

Path, this is the first time you've mentioned any kind of change by you guys. Can you tell us more about that -- what the change was, and when it happened? That might help.

[Alan T]

Eh, I think the bids thing is just beating a dead horse. The way it ended was probably the best possible for the villagers (non-wolves). Oz was protected from tribal council, the team with the most questions won and got to find out how many wolves there were everywhere, and one of the teams with the best chances at catching a wolf ended up going to tribal council.

If the wolves did influence it any, then we can just thank them for that since it hurt them more than us I think.

I really really wish Oz wasn't in tribal council today. With the number of Oz members left, I felt it pretty easy for their seer to scan through the members of Lupus and the remaining members of Howard for those two wolves.

Then once tribes do eventually merge, there would be enough remaining non-wolves in Howard, Lupus plus the non wolves in Helsing and all of Oz to smoke out the last wolf (if they aren't found before the merger).

I just think we need to focus on getting rid of the wolves before a merger, as it seems more and more likely once a merger happens, we'll start seeing night kills, conversions and other nasty stuff.

[st.cronin]

RA did eventually admit to being a wolf - I assume because he didn't realize that Barkeep wouldn't describe him as "voted off - wolf."

I don't know what to think of no night kills yet. I disagree with Lathum, I think it's foolish to assume the wolves are not in communication with each other. It's possible, I guess, but not something I want to try to assume yet.

[Lathum]

RA did eventually admit to being a wolf - I assume because he didn't realize that Barkeep wouldn't describe him as "voted off - wolf."

I don't know what to think of no night kills yet. I disagree with Lathum, I think it's foolish to assume the wolves are not in communication with each other. It's possible, I guess, but not something I want to try to assume yet.

at least I am coming up with a theory and trying to be helpfull.

Why do you disagree with me?

[Lathum]

dola- I didn't mean to sound harsh

[Alan T]

RA did eventually admit to being a wolf - I assume because he didn't realize that Barkeep wouldn't describe him as "voted off - wolf."

I don't know what to think of no night kills yet. I disagree with Lathum, I think it's foolish to assume the wolves are not in communication with each other. It's possible, I guess, but not something I want to try to assume yet.


Any ability to provide more information about what was said in regards to Lathum from the other day? We would like to work on the assumption he is not a wolf based on the seer saying so. Alot of ideas in our tribe's thread in how to interact with your tribe specifically is based upon the idea that Lathum is 100% cleared of being a wolf. I'm just curious to what the hesitation is to saying so when you almost came out admitting as much the other day.

[st.cronin]

at least I am coming up with a theory and trying to be helpfull.

Why do you disagree with me?

Because it would be unusual, and there's not really anything to support it, as far as I can tell. It's like suggesting that there are two seers. Sure, there might be, but what's the point in playing that way?

[Lathum]

I would just like to point out I am 100% clearing myself. I am not a wolf.

[st.cronin]

Bombshell: Lathum is not cleared. That was a bluff move on our part.

[Lathum]

Because it would be unusual, and there's not really anything to support it, as far as I can tell. It's like suggesting that there are two seers. Sure, there might be, but what's the point in playing that way?

sorry but that makes no sense. At least there is some evidence (no night kills, yet we know there ARE werewolves in the game) that point towards them not being able to communicate.

[Alan T]

Bombshell: Lathum is not cleared. That was a bluff move on our part.


Ok, well i don't understand your purpose in saying it at the time... at least thats cleared up now.

[st.cronin]

sorry but that makes no sense. At least there is some evidence (no night kills, yet we know there ARE werewolves in the game) that point towards them not being able to communicate.

No night kills points to them not being able to make a night kill. It doesn't say anything about their ability to communicate. Why are you trying so hard to convince us of this?

[st.cronin]

I am out for the day. Mondays have just been killer lately. Will check back sometime tomorrow.

[Lathum]

Bombshell: Lathum is not cleared. That was a bluff move on our part.

why?

[Poli]

Lathum, the easy answer is we didn't want to lay all our cards down on the table.

I'll be back in later this afternoon, we just got back in from STL.

Good news! It's not Crohn's disease. We don't know exactly what it is, diet or whatnot. Two biopsys were taken and we'll have the results in a week.

[Lathum]

can someone from Oz explain to me why they would "bluff" about me being cleared. It makes no sense and can only hurt the village.

Lets say I was a wolf and have been trusted for a few days now, that could cause alot of damage.

I was willing to throw the challange the other day, yet you guys didn't even put an entry in when we WANTED you to win.

Your tribe has done nothing to help the other tribes this game and your actions have been at best questionable.

[Passacaglia]

can someone from Oz explain to me why they would "bluff" about me being cleared. It makes no sense and can only hurt the village.

Lets say I was a wolf and have been trusted for a few days now, that could cause alot of damage.

I was willing to throw the challange the other day, yet you guys didn't even put an entry in when we WANTED you to win.

Your tribe has done nothing to help the other tribes this game and your actions have been at best questionable.

Word. Here I've been pushing for our tribe to let lathum view your thread, thinking he was cleared by you! That really let the villagers down.

[Lathum]

AE, glad to hear the good news.

Lathum, the easy answer is we didn't want to lay all our cards down on the table.

[COLOR=red]COLOR]



That is a bullshit answer. If you didn't want to lay your cards on the table you keep information to yourself, not make shit up. It seems more to me that you guys feel you fucked up by clearing me and you are trying to back pedal.

[Passacaglia]

Lathum, the easy answer is we didn't want to lay all our cards down on the table.

I'll be back in later this afternoon, we just got back in from STL.

Good news! It's not Crohn's disease. We don't know exactly what it is, diet or whatnot. Two biopsys were taken and we'll have the results in a week.

Good news, AE!

[Grammaticus]

Well, if you would lie about this, why should we trust you on RA or the seer being outed, etc?

[Passacaglia]

Anyway, no one was asking Oz to lay their cards on the table. I, for one, would have been perfectly happy with just knowing whether or not the seer had spoken up -- just to see how much protection you guys needed from us. Why you felt you had to lie to us in return for that is beyond me.

[Poli]

AE, glad to hear the good news.





That is a bullshit answer. If you didn't want to lay your cards on the table you keep information to yourself, not make shit up. It seems more to me that you guys feel you fucked up by clearing me and you are trying to back pedal.
I don't have time to answer this, but I'm in the party of 1) I never commented on you that I remember and 2) I actually believe RA told us the truth about you.

As far as it being BS, meh. So be it.

[Poli]

Well, if you would lie about this, why should we trust you on RA or the seer being outed, etc?
Not sure I ever commented on Lathum...but I understand your point. Not sure who won the right to view our thread, but have at it. You'd see for yourself.

[Lathum]

[QUOTE=ardent enthusiast;1390257] 2) I actually believe RA told us the truth about you.


about who?

what does this mean?

[Passacaglia]

Looks like the deal is off -- the majority of Helsing now sees the Oz thread as fair game.

[Lathum]

hey IMTHECREW, I see you are in the thread, will you please answer some questions about your tribe. Explain to me why it makes any sense to try and fool all of us?

[KWhit]

I actually believe RA told us the truth about you.

Huh?

What does that mean?

[KWhit]

Now I'm starting to question everything I've heard out of the red team and I'm sorry I sent my idol their way.

[Lathum]

hmmm, it seems ImTheCrew can't answer for himself. Could that be because Oz is talking out of their asses and crew being an inexpierienced player isn't sure what the correct thing to say is?

[Lathum]

Is it possible there was never a wolf in Oz and RA was actauly the seer?

[Alan T]

Is it possible there was never a wolf in Oz and RA was actauly the seer?


If that was the case, Oz better fear for their life.

[Lorena]

Family Feud?! I LOOVE that game! When I watch it on tv, I pretend I'm one of the contestants and hit an imaginary buzzer to answer the question.

[ImTheCrew]

hmmm, it seems ImTheCrew can't answer for himself. Could that be because Oz is talking out of their asses and crew being an inexpierienced player isn't sure what the correct thing to say is?

atleast im not a wolf

[Mr. Wednesday]

Now I'm starting to question everything I've heard out of the red team and I'm sorry I sent my idol their way.

From the WW point of view, it was still the right thing to do, as they have no wolves plus they have the seer. From the Survivor point of view, I dunno. But then, we still haven't seen the wolves' play yet.

[Lathum]

atleast im not a wolf

again, why don't you answer my question?

[Poli]

That's cool. Question me. I don't have time for it. Whatever. I'm about done with this game. I almost hope to be voted out.:rolleyes:

[KWhit]

That's cool. Question me. I don't have time for it. Whatever. I'm about done with this game. I almost hope to be voted out.:rolleyes:


http://www.cheapwebsitedesign.net/thumbs-up-mangrey.jpg

[Lathum]

That's cool. Question me. I don't have time for it. Whatever. I'm about done with this game. I almost hope to be voted out.:rolleyes:

why?

[Poli]

The wheels are coming off for those of in the Oz tribe, obviously.

I've got more than enough on my plate.

Cronin's in and out.

Schmidty, I haven't heard from him since I was in Chicago on Friday...maybe even Thursday.

I'm not sure ITC has contributed anything, anything at this point other than saying something's good.

GE hit it on the head when he said something along the lines that "he didn't want to" do the challenge, and I can't blame him.

I just think this game has become rather "unfun" for those of us in the Oz tribe.

And besides, who told us that there were no wolves in our tribe? I mean, seriously, if we're lieing, if we're ALL lieing about it, then, meh, it's not worth talking about.

That's how I feel about it, anyhow.

[Lathum]

The wheels are coming off for those of in the Oz tribe, obviously.

I've got more than enough on my plate.

Cronin's in and out.

Schmidty, I haven't heard from him since I was in Chicago on Friday...maybe even Thursday.

I'm not sure ITC has contributed anything, anything at this point other than saying something's good.

GE hit it on the head when he said something along the lines that "he didn't want to" do the challenge, and I can't blame him.

I just think this game has become rather "unfun" for those of us in the Oz tribe.

And besides, who told us that there were no wolves in our tribe? I mean, seriously, if we're lieing, if we're ALL lieing about it, then, meh, it's not worth talking about.

That's how I feel about it, anyhow.

I'm sorry you aren't having fun.

I know for a fact you have no wolves, we are just trying to get to the bottom of why you guys made the play you made.

[Passacaglia]

The wheels are coming off for those of in the Oz tribe, obviously.

I've got more than enough on my plate.

Cronin's in and out.

Schmidty, I haven't heard from him since I was in Chicago on Friday...maybe even Thursday.

I'm not sure ITC has contributed anything, anything at this point other than saying something's good.

GE hit it on the head when he said something along the lines that "he didn't want to" do the challenge, and I can't blame him.

I just think this game has become rather "unfun" for those of us in the Oz tribe.

And besides, who told us that there were no wolves in our tribe? I mean, seriously, if we're lieing, if we're ALL lieing about it, then, meh, it's not worth talking about.

That's how I feel about it, anyhow.

It was Helsing who said you had no wolves -- we found out when we won the challenge that let us each ask Barkeep one question. We asked about all the tribes.

[Poli]

Duly noted. Sorry if I come across a bit pessimistic, but we obviously should have had something in for our tribe and there's no one more disappointed about it than myself.

Had personal issues not been involved this weekend, I would have dragged our team across the finish line on my back with this one.

I'm disappointed in my whole team for not getting this together, no matter who or what. Guys, don't read much into that. I know everyone on my team has/had their reasons for lack of participation.

[Raiders Army]

The game was fun for me.

[Lathum]

The game was fun for me.

must be why they voted you out. :)

[Poli]

I wish we'd have kept you around, at least you helped out. :)

[Poli]

Can someone cut me a break? I went to oscar.com, am I looking for the movie with "best picture"?

[Poli]

I'm assuming this has to be PMed as well.

[path12]

Best Picture nominees are: Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen, The Departed and Letters from Iwo Jima.

[Poli]

Thanks, that's the list I was going to go with. Sure wish I had RA around. Friggin RA.

[Poli]

Sent. Meh, we're what, 2 hours from the deadline? I'm pretty disappointed in my tribe.

[st.cronin]

Sorry dude.

I think it will be clear why we (I) lied about Lathum post game. It seemed like a pretty good play at the time, but I don't really know how it played out.

[Lathum]

Sorry dude.

I think it will be clear why we (I) lied about Lathum post game. It seemed like a pretty good play at the time, but I don't really know how it played out.

I think you did it because once you lost your wolf you guys went into survivor mode. You don't want to go into the merge undermanned so you are trying to eithier get my tribe to argue with each other or say you know I am a wolf and get the other tribes to gang up on us under the pretense you know I am a wolf.

[Poli]

No worries, cronin.

[Alan T]

Sorry dude.

I think it will be clear why we (I) lied about Lathum post game. It seemed like a pretty good play at the time, but I don't really know how it played out.

I'll be interested in seeing how it plays out post game. That action alone has caused us as a team to go from trying to look out for Oz to now being completely indifferent to the team's welfare. It feels like while we were trying to look out for the seer's best interest, Oz as a team was more interested in positioning themselves to try to mess with us.

Perhaps thats not really how things were behind the scenes, but with our limited viewpoint here, that is definitly how they appear right now.

[st.cronin]

I think you did it because once you lost your wolf you guys went into survivor mode. You don't want to go into the merge undermanned so you are trying to eithier get my tribe to argue with each other or say you know I am a wolf and get the other tribes to gang up on us under the pretense you know I am a wolf.

Not true. I've been playing werewolf, not survivor. I don't even understand the survivor stuff.

If our tribe had been playing survivor, we would have done a bit better on the challenges so far.

[GoldenEagle]

I am going to clear a few things up. I put together an entry for the wiki and asked one of the team members to put it on there. The entry was good. It reviewed each FOF game but I was not going to be late for my first soccer game of the season.

AE was with his wife and that is 100% understandable. St. Cronin I am sure was busy. Schmidty has been heard from since Day 1. There was one member of our team online when I posted that, and I fully expected him to do it. Unfortunately it was not done and that is that.

[Alan T]

Not true. I've been playing werewolf, not survivor. I don't even understand the survivor stuff.

If our tribe had been playing survivor, we would have done a bit better on the challenges so far.


Guess I will look forward to post game and finding out what the method to the madness was then. After the bluff last week, and then messing with us or pulling our strings for still an unknown reason, I guess thats just how we will have to play in return.

[Lathum]

Not true. I've been playing werewolf, not survivor. I don't even understand the survivor stuff.

If our tribe had been playing survivor, we would have done a bit better on the challenges so far.

Well thats a strange game to play. Stealing the immunity idol then admitting to lying while never being up front even though the other 3 tribes are trying to work together.

[Alan T]

I am going to clear a few things up. I put together an entry for the wiki and asked one of the team members to put it on there. The entry was good. It reviewed each FOF game but I was not going to be late for my first soccer game of the season.

AE was with his wife and that is 100% understandable. St. Cronin I am sure was busy. Schmidty has been heard from since Day 1. There was one member of our team online when I posted that, and I fully expected him to do it. Unfortunately it was not done and that is that.

At this point, I don't honestly care about the way the contest went. My feelings about Oz primarily are due to the way you all have been pulling our strings. Whether intentional or not, you all still haven't given us a straight answer when it has to do directly with our tribe's well being.

This is after we went through large effort to provide you with info that was to your benefit, and try to protect Oz and the seer multiple times.. Still the desire we see from Oz is to complety mess with us. I just don't see the reason for it other than gamesmanship.

[st.cronin]

Glad to hear the good news, ardent.

[GoldenEagle]

I will answer any questions that are asked. I will also give some information. This came straight from RA, so you can believe it or not. Call it a make-up for missing the wiki.

1. Wolfs can not communicate until they find each other. They must scan for another wolf until they find one. RA said he scanned Lathum and he was not a wolf, but who knows if that was true or not.
2. RA wanted to help us. He wanted to scan and tell us about the other wolfs. He volunteered to be another seer, basically.
3. My understanding is that each wolf can kill at night, but they may can only do once every two days or something of that effect. However, if they save up the energy they can build up to consecutive kills. RA did not say this directly, but I believe that is what he was implying.
4. RA knew he had been scanned. He denied this but why else would he come out with it. Whether or not he knew who scanned him is the million dollar question.

I think that is it. I will go review the whole thing again but that should give you enough to chew on.