NBA Lottery....tonight [Archive] - Front Office Football Central

stevew

05-22-2007, 05:33 AM

8pm, before the Spurs/Jazz game. Finally the reckoning day for all the tanking that went on this season. Obviously picks 1/2 are Oden/Durant. Then it gets a bit fuzzy based on need. One thing to watch is the Hawks, their pick goes to the Suns if it isn't in one of the top 3 selections. The Hawks will be ecstatic if they aren't called at selections 6, 5 or 4. The Pacers can only keep their pick if it is among the top 3 selections, but I'm guessing they have in the neighborhood of a 3% chance of that happening.

Going into it, most odds to least odds. For those keeping track at home, as soon as a team is not called at or worse than it's proper inverse order spot, they have moved into the top 3. Each team can drop a maximum of 3 selections. The only way to move up in the draft order is to make the top 3, otherwise your spot becomes worse.

Team Combos 1st Pick 2nd 3rd
1 Memphis 250 25.0% 21.5% 17.8%
2 Boston 199 19.9% 18.8% 17.1%
3 Milwaukee 156 15.6% 15.7% 15.6%
4 Atlanta(to PHX if not 1,2,3) 119 11.9% 12.6% 13.3%
5 Seattle 88 8.8% 9.7% 10.7%
6 Portland 53 5.3% 6.0% 7.0%
7 Minnesota 53 5.3% 6.0% 7.0%
8 Charlotte 19 1.9% 2.2% 2.7%
9 New York(to Chicago) 19 1.9% 2.2% 2.7%
10 Sacramento 18 1.8% 2.1% 2.5%
11 Indiana(to ATL if not 1,2,3) 8 0.8% 0.9% 1.2%
12 Philadelphia 7 0.7% 0.8% 1.0%
13 New Orleans 6 0.6% 0.7% 0.9%
14 LA Clippers 5 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%

stevew

05-22-2007, 05:37 AM

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/new/story/2007_nba_draft_lottery_odds40802

2007 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
May 18th, 2007 NBA Draft
By Shawn Siegel
The 2007 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday night, May 22nd. Despite all the hype about the Grizzlies and Celtics dividing up Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, there's actually a substantial chance both teams will most out on those guys. Included in the top chart is each team's chance of getting the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. These are official numbers supplied by NBA.com.
Memphis obviously has the best chance at #1 with 25% odds. Notice however, that they have less than a 50% chance combined of getting the Top 2 picks. There's actually a better chance (53.5%) that they will get the 3rd pick or below. The same goes for the Celtics who have a 61.3% chance of getting the 3rd pick or below. In fact, the most likely pick that both the Grizzlies and Celtics will get is the 4th pick. Memphis has a 36% chance of getting the 4th pick, while Boston has a 32% chance.

Both Milwaukee and Atlanta, who have the 3rd best odds, are actually most likely to end up with the 5th pick. Milwaukee has a 23% chance of getting this pick, while Atlanta has 35%.

QuikSand

05-22-2007, 05:56 AM

Math skills not his strong suit. Hope he's good with basketball.

stevew

05-22-2007, 06:07 AM

Math skills not his strong suit. Hope he's good with basketball.

I don't follow? I believe that's the commonly accepted math on the lotto breakdown? There are 1000 "balls" in the lottery. Pick #1 is selected first IIRC.

QuikSand

05-22-2007, 06:09 AM

It just felt like regurgitation to me. I don't know of there are eny actual errors in there, it just felt like typing without understanding. Sorry if I implied that he was wrong with the numbers he clearly just copied from the press release.

My point is that if this is his best "insight" with regards to math, I hope he's more insightful with regards to actual basketball.

bulletsponge

05-22-2007, 07:28 AM

8pm, before the Spurs/Jazz game. Finally the reckoning day for all the tanking that went on this season

quoted for thruth

MylesKnight

05-22-2007, 07:38 AM

How about those Knicks? Watch Isiah's Boys get one of the top two picks and see the agony of NYK fans as this pick gets shipped to Chicago. Unintentional Comedy at it's finest folks.

But hey, they did get Randolph Morris though. There's your consolation prize I suppose.

Personally, I'd like to see Kevin Garnett get some help with the T'Pups. Hopefully Oden or Durant heads up that way... That, or the Clippers getting up to #1 or #2, just to p___ off Lakertown.

TroyF

05-22-2007, 07:53 AM

So if Indiana gets into the top 3 and the Hawks are out of the top 3, they are pretty much screwed.

The Nuggets may not be even in the realm of a championship team yet, but I'm so glad we aren't back here. Over a decade in the lottery and not one time did they ever get the pick or above the pick they were supposed to. How horrific.

Please, keep the top three picks out East. That conference is a joke. The West has to much talent already.

Huckleberry

05-22-2007, 08:05 AM

If it doesn't end up:

1. Milwaukee
2. Portland
3. Memphis

Then it was rigged.

JPhillips

05-22-2007, 08:06 AM

I'll go out on a limb and guarantee the Celtics pick no better than third. Call it the Pitino curse.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 08:08 AM

Well this is the quintessential NBA conspiracy event. Let’s take a look at some of the ones I have read or heard so far.

1.Boston will win the lottery because the NBA wants to have the Celtics back at the top of the East.

2.New York will win the lottery so the Bulls can take that pick, draft Oden and recreate the Bulls dynasty of the past.

3.Seattle will win the lottery to pick Oden, so the NBA can try to convince the city/state to give them a new arena.

4.Charlotte will win because David Stern wants the Bobcats to succeed so the league can trumpet the success of the franchise that is owned by a black man.

5.Minnesota will win because the league wants KG to finally get a chance to compete after indirectly screwing him over in the Joe Smith fiasco.

6.New Orleans will win the lottery to ensure sellouts in the team’s first full season in the Big Easy after Katrina.

7.The Kings will win to ensure they have a rising star in tow when they make their move to Las Vegas.

Any more?

Pumpy Tudors

05-22-2007, 08:10 AM

Memphis will win the lottery because... because... because I'm the only Grizzlies fan in the universe?

rkmsuf

05-22-2007, 08:27 AM

Not long now before the C's are irrelevant for another 10 years. If they don't get #1 cross them off until 2015.

stevew

05-22-2007, 08:27 AM

If the Hawks could somehow get Oden, and then also put together a trade for Conley Jr.....that would be the type of way an elite team could be built.

albionmoonlight

05-22-2007, 08:32 AM

rkmsuf

05-22-2007, 08:37 AM

They should go back to the "every team out of the playoffs has an equal chance at the top three picks" lottery.

The obvious tanking this season was a disgrace.

And I agree with Bill Simmons--is it the worst thing in the world if a team that is on the cusp of the playoffs gets a player that can make them into an elite team? Isn't that more entertaining than watching the best players go to the worst teams and either have their spirts broken by losing or end up toiling for four years before they bolt for New York or LA or Boston or Chicago?

There's always been tanking. This notion that it's suddenly a problem is a bit odd to me. This year wasn't much different than any year where an "elite" player is entering the league. Just the nature of the game.

Where are all these players bolting for Boston?!!?!! Sign some up dammit!

albionmoonlight

05-22-2007, 08:44 AM

There's always been tanking. This notion that it's suddenly a problem is a bit odd to me. This year wasn't much different than any year where an "elite" player is entering the league. Just the nature of the game.

Where are all these players bolting for Boston?!!?!! Sign some up dammit!

If Boston had even an average front office, the team would be just fine. I think that the passionate fans and the history would be enough to keep the team above water.

Gross mismanagement, however, can sink any team. As you know.

And, I am not the world's biggest NBA watcher by any stretch, but the media certainly talked about taking a lot more this season. There were not articles written about how tanking might be happening, but articles written that just assumed that it was and went from there.

But, again, I don't really know anything because I get most of what I know secondhand from the media.

rkmsuf

05-22-2007, 08:51 AM

It was a nice issue to write about to generate some attention but to me was similar to most years. And really who cares if the worst 5 or 6 teams are losing. Do you really think that the teams out of it in any given year are going all out over those last 10 games?

My only beef with the NBA is that the cycle of going to the bottom and back to the top is way too long given perfect management. Throw in some clunker moves and you have 20 years of meh. Boston has become irrelevant. Some of it is poor moves but much is the nature of basketball and one guy meaning everything. Also, could the rules be any more restrictive in terms of trading? Something is out of whack when a guy with one year left on a deal and not playing is a highly sought after asset.

DaddyTorgo

05-22-2007, 09:06 AM

Not long now before the C's are irrelevant for another 10 years. If they don't get #1 cross them off until 2015.

QFT

Maple Leafs

05-22-2007, 09:07 AM

For those keeping track at home, as soon as a team is not called at or worse than it's proper inverse order spot, they have moved into the top 3.
Oh neat, I didn't know that.

So if they announce the tenth pick and Sacramento hasn't been called yet, they're definitely in the top three?

P.S. Are they still doing the show where each team sends one guy to sit there awkwardly and we get to watch them react when they're team is picked? That is gold, I love that part.

stevew

05-22-2007, 09:15 AM

Oh neat, I didn't know that.

So if they announce the tenth pick and Sacramento hasn't been called yet, they're definitely in the top three?

P.S. Are they still doing the show where each team sends one guy to sit there awkwardly and we get to watch them react when they're team is picked? That is gold, I love that part.

Yes, that is correct.

For example, if the order is

14. Clippers
13. New Orleans
12. Philly
11. Indiana(to ATL)
10. New York(to Chicago)

That means that the SAC front office is jumping for joy, since they have one of the top 3 "lotteried" selections.

Yeah, each team has one representitive at the draft.

stevew

05-22-2007, 09:20 AM

So if Indiana gets into the top 3 and the Hawks are out of the top 3, they are pretty much screwed.

I can't remember much about how to do permutations or statistics anymore, but the hawks have about a 66% chance of ending up 4th or worse, and the Pacers have a 97% chance of that happening. So, I think that the odds of that happening would have to be pretty small, anyways. It'd be funny as hell, however.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 09:22 AM

Most exciting thing about the NBA season, really. lol

Fighter of Foo

05-22-2007, 09:34 AM

If the Hawks could somehow get Oden, and then also put together a trade for Conley Jr.....that would be the type of way an elite team could be built.

Maybe if they thought about drafting a point guard that would help too.

wbatl1

05-22-2007, 09:40 AM

As an Hawks fan, this lottery could be spectacular or it could be miserable. We could end up with two lottery picks, or none (although thats not likely). Then again, Billy Knight will probably draft another 6'9'' swingman to go with our 6 others....

Logan

05-22-2007, 09:43 AM

P.S. Are they still doing the show where each team sends one guy to sit there awkwardly and we get to watch them react when they're team is picked? That is gold, I love that part.

I'm a Knicks fan...but can you imagine how amazing it would be for Isiah Thomas to be sitting there and having to force a "Now I'm really fucked" smile after they win the lottery?

Haven't read it anywhere yet, but I'm assuming he's going to send someone in his place just so he doesn't have to be subjected to that. Maybe he'll hire Don Chaney for the night.

Sublime 2

05-22-2007, 09:55 AM

Need some Irish Luck from Tommy Heinsohn tonight!!

stevew

05-22-2007, 10:00 AM

I'm a Knicks fan...but can you imagine how amazing it would be for Isiah Thomas to be sitting there and having to force a "Now I'm really fucked" smile after they win the lottery?

Haven't read it anywhere yet, but I'm assuming he's going to send someone in his place just so he doesn't have to be subjected to that. Maybe he'll hire Don Chaney for the night.

Remember Jerry West's face when he was thisclose to getting the LeBron pick, and instead he had to sit there knowing that the Pistons were getting his selection. For a trade made like 7 years prior, under a different regime. A trade for Otis F'n Thorpe.

Maple Leafs

05-22-2007, 10:44 AM

I still remember watching the lottery from the Lebron draft. I don't really follow the NBA but I remember everyone agreeing that Lebron was a franchise player, and that Darko and Carmello were also studs, then there was a huge drop at #4.

So the Raptor, who finished third last, of course get the #4 pick. They had sent Vince Carter as their representative and the look on his face was just classic. This half-hearted (is there any other kind from him?) smile with a thinly-disguised "We're are so fucked" look.

Damn I wish they'd gotten Darko. Wonder whatever happened to that kid we drafted instead?

Desnudo

05-22-2007, 10:56 AM

Not long now before the C's are irrelevant for another 10 years. If they don't get #1 cross them off until 2015.

I blame the Fleet Center

Anthony

05-22-2007, 10:57 AM

don't you wish the Draft Lottery and the actual draft could be held on the same nite? that'd be awesome.

Logan

05-22-2007, 11:16 AM

don't you wish the Draft Lottery and the actual draft could be held on the same nite? that'd be awesome.

Yeah, it would be cool to watch a bunch of heavyset executives and scouts start scampering around once they find out what pick they have. Sign me up.

Anthony

05-22-2007, 11:41 AM

Yeah, it would be cool to watch a bunch of heavyset executives and scouts start scampering around once they find out what pick they have. Sign me up.

especially if you're Isaiah Thomas and you just lost out on a good pick, tell me that doesn't just poo poo on your whole day. wouldn't that make the odds of making horrible draft decisions even more likely having just been screwed at the Lottery? imagine GM's being fired from the time the Lottery is over to when the actual Draft starts like 30 minutes later. that'd be awesome. even the chaos of teams scurrying to make trades in the time between the lottery and the draft. that'd be fun to watch.

molson

05-22-2007, 12:17 PM

don't you wish the Draft Lottery and the actual draft could be held on the same nite? that'd be awesome.

And have every team eligible for the loterry - you have an equal chance of picking 1 - 29 (or whatever). Not only would I watch that, I'd buy 10 products of every commerical advertisor for the event.

Logan

05-22-2007, 12:18 PM

Stop getting me excited for something that will never happen.

molson

05-22-2007, 12:20 PM

They should go back to the "every team out of the playoffs has an equal chance at the top three picks" lottery.

The obvious tanking this season was a disgrace.

And I agree with Bill Simmons--is it the worst thing in the world if a team that is on the cusp of the playoffs gets a player that can make them into an elite team? Isn't that more entertaining than watching the best players go to the worst teams and either have their spirts broken by losing or end up toiling for four years before they bolt for New York or LA or Boston or Chicago?

Agreed - the lottery's original purpose was to avoid tanking. So the heavy weighting (which encourages tanking) is just silly and pointless.

A horrible team can become a bad team (just missing the playoffs) without the aid of the #1 overall pick.

rkmsuf

05-22-2007, 12:26 PM

And have every team eligible for the loterry - you have an equal chance of picking 1 - 29 (or whatever). Not only would I watch that, I'd buy 10 products of every commerical advertisor for the event.

they also should have to pick immediately. the first envelope is revealed and that team picks #1. They have 3 minutes to make a pick. Then there is a minute interval to allow any trading amongst the remaining teams. You want to roll the dice and get two chances to be the next pick then give up a player! Then the next envelope is drawn. Now that's entertainment.

General Mike

05-22-2007, 12:30 PM

Is it wrong to want the Knicks to win the draft lottery?

albionmoonlight

05-22-2007, 12:37 PM

These are awesome ideas. Also, all of the executives should be right next to the green room with all the players (and vice versa) so they can listen in on each other.

albionmoonlight

05-22-2007, 12:43 PM

And every player, every executive, and every player's baby momma(s) should be miked.

If all of this came true, they could put the lottery/draft on Pay Per View and people would get it.

Logan

05-22-2007, 12:45 PM

st.cronin

05-22-2007, 12:48 PM

Stern made some comments when Boston was openly tanking that he was considering taking pingpong balls away from teams that were tanking. So, I'd be pretty surprised if Boston (or Milwaukee) finished in the top 3.

Coffee Warlord

05-22-2007, 12:53 PM

Is it wrong to want the Knicks to win the draft lottery?

Not. At. All. :)

Maple Leafs

05-22-2007, 12:55 PM

If Boston gets the #3 pick, I will go to Simmon's page on ESPN tomorrow morning and hit refresh every five seconds until his column and/or obituary appears.

Logan

05-22-2007, 01:02 PM

If Boston gets the #3 pick, I will go to Simmon's page on ESPN tomorrow morning and hit refresh every five seconds until his column and/or obituary appears.

I emailed him a few months back and said that he has to set up a camcorder to watch him watch the draft and put it on Youtube when it was over.

His response was simple: "too dangerous."

Ryche

05-22-2007, 03:38 PM

We know the Twolves won't win, they have never moved up in the lottery and the one time they got in the top three they ended up with Laettner after O'Neal and Mourning went 1-2.

Arles

05-22-2007, 03:38 PM

If Boston gets the #3 pick, I will go to Simmon's page on ESPN tomorrow morning and hit refresh every five seconds until his column and/or obituary appears.
That would be great comedy. As would watching David Stern's face if the Knicks end up with the top pick - knowing full well they have to give it to Chicago.

Maple Leafs

05-22-2007, 04:00 PM

Wait... I'm not an NBA fan, but I thought traded draft picks were always protected in case they were top-three, etc. Are you telling me Isiah's pick isn't protected at all?

Brian Swartz

05-22-2007, 04:04 PM

Most of the time they are ... but not in this case. There is no protection on the Knicks-Bulls trade.

Ksyrup

05-22-2007, 04:11 PM

There is no protecting the Knicks from Isaiah.

bulletsponge

05-22-2007, 04:13 PM

There is no protecting the Knicks from Isaiah.

LMFAO!!!!

Isaiah is the worst GM in pro sports. Mchale and Millen are grasshoppers next to the master

Neuqua

05-22-2007, 04:21 PM

albionmoonlight

05-22-2007, 04:28 PM

For some odd reason, I can't recall why, the NBA wouldn't let the Bulls own the Knicks two draft picks in the Eddy Curry trade.

I think, though I could be mixing up stories, that a team (Cleveland?) back in the day had a GM so bad that it was hurting the competitive balance of the league. This guy would trade multiple first round picks for average players and put his team in impossible holes for years. The NBA basically put in rules limiting how many assets teams could include in trades in order to protect teams from themselves.

Though, as Isiah has shown, a crafty GM can get around the rules designed to protect him.

larrymcg421

05-22-2007, 04:28 PM

To be fair to Isiah, Eddy curry did have a pretty strong season. Still, I don't think anyone will care if Oden or Durant are pounding the glass for the Bulls next year.

Anthony

05-22-2007, 04:35 PM

To be fair to Isiah, Eddy curry did have a pretty strong season. Still, I don't think anyone will care if Oden or Durant are pounding the glass for the Bulls next year.

i always say if Thomas was able to get Ben Gordon thrown in - and at the time Gordon was just a 6th man - this trade would not seem so bad. and instead of flip flopping 2 draft picks, just have made it one (for '06). and if Curry didn't have a heart ailment. and if Jim Dolan wasn't allowed to run the team. and if Thomas was never hired. if all these things had just happened then the Curry trade wouldn't have seemed so bad.

JHandley

05-22-2007, 04:36 PM

3.Seattle will win the lottery to pick Oden, so the NBA can try to convince the city/state to give them a new arena.

2. Landing Oden or Durant would save pro basketball in Seattle -- after all, how could they move under those circumstances -- but we're not sure if Team Stern believes this would be a good thing or a bad thing, so I'm giving them seven points for "rigging potential" as a compromise grade. No franchise has more riding on those Ping-Pong balls tonight. If they don't get a top-two pick, they're almost definitely gone.

Whoever started this rumor has never spent any time in the Northwest, let alone Seattle. Landing Oden or Durant will mean great things for the good people of Oklahoma City. If Seattle were able to draft God Almighty, the people of Seattle will never approve of a plan to give Clay Bennett $500M for a stadium while he contributes.. well, I'm pretty sure he'd contribute a double latte to the courier to delivers the check. That's iffy, he wouldn't walk too far to get the latte.

Also, can someone explain these two quotes to me?

7.The Kings will win to ensure they have a rising star in tow when they make their move to Las Vegas.

(Note: I gave the Kings a "6" for rigging potential just in case the league wants to grease the skids for a Vegas move by giving them a young superstar to sell in Sin City. You never know.)

Miami_fan, I'm not calling you out personally. But how come Seattle winning the lottery keeps the team in Seattle, but the Kings winning the lottery almost guarantees they're leaving?

chris3627

05-22-2007, 04:58 PM

For some odd reason, I can't recall why, the NBA wouldn't let the Bulls own the Knicks two draft picks in the Eddy Curry trade. So John Paxson got a bit creative, and what he did was in the 2007 draft, he included a clause that gave the Bulls the option to swap picks with the Knicks.The Bulls obviously took Tyrus Thomas with the #2 pick last year (which belonged to the Knicks.) And hopefully tonight we can really hit the jackpot, though I'm not counting on it.

It's called the Ted Stephin rule, you have to keep at least one future 1st rounder every other draft. He kept trading away 1st rounders, I looked up the past rather pathetic results of the trades (1981-1986)

From the Professional Basketball Transactions Archive
> 76ers — Traded Terry Furlow to Cavaliers for 1981 first round pick (#4-Al Wood), 1983 first round pick (#3-Rodney McCray) on 10/3/77

> Lakers — Traded Don Ford, 1980 first round pick (#22-Chad Kinch) to Cavaliers for Butch Lee, 1982 first round pick (#1-James Worthy) on 2/15/80

> Mavericks — Traded Richard Washington, Jerome Whitehead to Cavaliers for Bill Robinzine, 1983 first round pick (#11-Derek Harper), 1986 first round pick (#7-Roy Tarpley) on 10/30/80

> Mavericks — Traded Mike Bratz to Cavaliers for 1984 first round pick (#4-Sam Perkins) on 9/16/80

> Mavericks — Traded Geoff Huston, 1983 third round pick (#56-Larry Anderson) to Cavaliers for Chad Kinch, 1985 first round pick (#8-Detlef Schrempf) on 2/7/81

larrymcg421

05-22-2007, 05:15 PM

It's called the Ted Stephin rule, you have to keep at least one future 1st rounder every other draft. He kept trading away 1st rounders, I looked up the past rather pathetic results of the trades (1981-1986)

From the Professional Basketball Transactions Archive
> 76ers — Traded Terry Furlow to Cavaliers for 1981 first round pick (#4-Al Wood), 1983 first round pick (#3-Rodney McCray) on 10/3/77

> Lakers — Traded Don Ford, 1980 first round pick (#22-Chad Kinch) to Cavaliers for Butch Lee, 1982 first round pick (#1-James Worthy) on 2/15/80

> Mavericks — Traded Richard Washington, Jerome Whitehead to Cavaliers for Bill Robinzine, 1983 first round pick (#11-Derek Harper), 1986 first round pick (#7-Roy Tarpley) on 10/30/80

> Mavericks — Traded Mike Bratz to Cavaliers for 1984 first round pick (#4-Sam Perkins) on 9/16/80

> Mavericks — Traded Geoff Huston, 1983 third round pick (#56-Larry Anderson) to Cavaliers for Chad Kinch, 1985 first round pick (#8-Detlef Schrempf) on 2/7/81

Wow, that guy was playing with some mad house rules.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 05:26 PM

Whoever started this rumor has never spent any time in the Northwest, let alone Seattle. Landing Oden or Durant will mean great things for the good people of Oklahoma City. If Seattle were able to draft God Almighty, the people of Seattle will never approve of a plan to give Clay Bennett $500M for a stadium while he contributes.. well, I'm pretty sure he'd contribute a double latte to the courier to delivers the check. That's iffy, he wouldn't walk too far to get the latte.

Also, can someone explain these two quotes to me?

Miami_fan, I'm not calling you out personally. But how come Seattle winning the lottery keeps the team in Seattle, but the Kings winning the lottery almost guarantees they're leaving?

First off I see that the Sports Guy reads some of the basketball rumor websites I do!:D

Honestly, I don't expect the Sonics to be in Seattle any longer than they have to. I remember when Schultz was looking for a new arena, there was a thread on her talking about how little chance he had. But that is why it is a NBA conspiracy theory.;) The ping pong balls couldn't just pop up that way.

Now as far as the Kings go, there is circumstantial evidence that make it a possibility. Again what else do you need for a conspiracy? Seriously, I really believe the NBA (among other pro sports leagues) would love to put a franchise in Las Vegas. The Maloof brothers obviously have ties to Vegas. Arco is one of the smallest arenas in the NBA. Finally, there is a battle between the team and the city over getting a new arena built. Over what? You guessed it. Funding. Even without winning the lottery I could see the Kings moving from Sac-town.

Neuqua

05-22-2007, 06:02 PM

3,000th post in the draft lottery thread. Hopefully this means something significant...

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 06:18 PM

I hope Memphis wins the #1, because I think Oden could do well there.

If Phoenix (via Atlanta) win the #1, I'll be sick to my stomach, and that co-owner of Atlanta that wanted to veto the Boris Diaw-Joe Johnson trade will loook like a genius.

Brian Swartz

05-22-2007, 06:23 PM

Won't happen, Atlanta's pick is protected: if it is top three they keep it.

If Oden goes to Memphis the Southwest Division will be obscenely tough next year.

DaddyTorgo

05-22-2007, 06:23 PM

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 06:41 PM

What if Minnesota gets the #1 pick. What will that do for the Big Ticket KG? Can one of those kids be a difference maker for him?

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 06:44 PM

Draft lottery viewing party? What the heck? What does the NBA think this is, the NFL? lol...

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 06:47 PM

I don't like the new rules that don't give every losing team a chance a high pick. I liked the old way better. Sure, it made San Antonio huge and it also helped Orlando, even if they squandered it.

I like that losing doesn't necessarily get rewarded, especially in a sport where the draft actually can help a lot.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 06:47 PM

i'm not an nba fan at all, but I can honestly say, if the celts get the #1 pick that would actually make me watch oh a good...~50% of celts games next year, provided oden isn't a total bust.

course if they don't (as I fear they won't), you won't even catch me stopping on the games as I flip through the channels.

I think the Celtics might actually be better off with Durant next year. Al Jeff stepped it up last season, and a frontcourt of Perkins (boards and blocks), Al Jeff (scoring and rebounding), Durant (scoring), combined with Pierce and West/Rondo/whoever in the backcourt would be a pretty decent lineup IMO.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 06:53 PM

Won't happen, Atlanta's pick is protected: if it is top three they keep it.

If Oden goes to Memphis the Southwest Division will be obscenely tough next year.

Ahh, I didn't know that. Would be interesting if Atlanta grabbed Oden at #1, because several mocks have Atlanta taking Conley at #11. I don't know that he'll still be there, but that'd be neat if it happened. Atlanta would fill it's two biggest holes with two college teammates.

Then all they'd have to do is trade away about 16 or 17 of their excess swingmen.

Vince

05-22-2007, 06:54 PM

It's really odd to have no reason to be interested in the NBA during the lottery. We never really seemed to have a good chance to win the lottery, but Golden State's been involved in it for a long while now. Nice to not be worrying about it :)

EDIT -- How is the playoff team draft order determined? Inverse by record?

larrymcg421

05-22-2007, 07:00 PM

I think the Celtics might actually be better off with Durant next year. Al Jeff stepped it up last season, and a frontcourt of Perkins (boards and blocks), Al Jeff (scoring and rebounding), Durant (scoring), combined with Pierce and West/Rondo/whoever in the backcourt would be a pretty decent lineup IMO.

I like Al Jeff, Oden, and Green, with a Pierce/West backcourt.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:01 PM

Sublime 2

05-22-2007, 07:02 PM

I like Al Jeff, Oden, and Green, with a Pierce/West backcourt.

I'd put a healthy Tony Allen in there for Green and move Pierce to the 3. Also a healthy Wally S. could be a great contributor.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:03 PM

An interesting tidbit I just got from Wikipedia about the current NBA age limit and how it would affect a particular past player and a current HS phenom:

Under current NBA Draft rules, late 1980s and early 1990s star Brad Daugherty would not have been eligible until two years after his high school graduation, because he graduated from high school while still 16. On the other hand, current highly-touted high school prospect O.J. Mayo is already 19, but will not be eligible until the 2008 draft.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:04 PM

I realize it's not that different than what the NFL does, to some degree and of course, college baseball. But...it's still interesting since there weren't any restrictions for a while and now there are.

It's certainly better for the teams, at least on paper this way. Even if it's kinda goofy for everyone else involved.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 07:13 PM

Anyone see any chance that the team with the #1 pick trades down? I don't see it myself.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:13 PM

Durant is a smart kid. Didn't take any of the bait that Dan Patrick tried to give him to talk trash.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:13 PM

Anyone see any chance that the team with the #1 pick trades down? I don't see it myself.

No chance in hell. Nobody wants to be known as the GM that traded away Greg Oden.

Atocep

05-22-2007, 07:14 PM

Anyone see any chance that the team with the #1 pick trades down? I don't see it myself.

No way in hell.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:15 PM

Wow, it's a pretty big drop from 2 to 3 though. I mean, who do you even go with?

Maple Leafs

05-22-2007, 07:16 PM

Anyone know if this is being shown live in Canada?

Coffee Warlord

05-22-2007, 07:17 PM

Anyone see any chance that the team with the #1 pick trades down? I don't see it myself.

I do, however, bet that whoever gets the #2 will be entertaining some offers.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 07:19 PM

As a fan, I would be scared if my team picked Yi Jianlian. Call it the Darko factor.

Atocep

05-22-2007, 07:20 PM

Wow, it's a pretty big drop from 2 to 3 though. I mean, who do you even go with?

Its a big dropoff in comparison to Durant and Oden, but when you compare 3-10 to previous drafts and this one pretty strong. I don't see anyone trading out of the top 10 this year. Yi and Brandan Wright would get solid consideration for #1 in most years. Noah was considered a top 3 pick last year and he may fall out of the top 10 in this draft.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:22 PM

As a fan, I would be scared if my team picked Yi Jianlian. Call it the Darko factor.

Aye. As I said in the regular season thread, Jianlian is my personal '2007 NBA Draft Prospect that I'd hate my team to pick'.

SackAttack

05-22-2007, 07:23 PM

Atocep

05-22-2007, 07:25 PM

As a fan, I would be scared if my team picked Yi Jianlian. Call it the Darko factor.

I think the difference between Yi and Darko/Tskitishlivi is Yi has a well rounded game and I would hope he gets playing time. Darko rotted on the bench as Larry Brown tried to change him from being a 3-4 to being a 4-5. Tskitishlivi was strictly a shooter that sat the bench on his pro team.

Yi has shown a well-rounded game and produced in China. He also had a 13 point 7 rebound game against the U.S. in the world championships. I don't think he's a safe pick, but I think he's a much safer pick than either Darko or Tskitishlivi were.

Logan

05-22-2007, 07:26 PM

How does the protected clause work?

I mean, is this "We'll trade you X for Y, and you have to give us Z if it's #4 or lower, but if it's #1-3, the trade is just straight X for Y," or does Phoenix get some other compensation if Atlanta's pick is top three?

In most cases, it's pushed back a year. So if Atlanta lands in the top 3, Phoenix will then have their 2008 1st rounder. Normally, the amount of "protectedness" decreases as you go down the road. That pick might just be protected for the #1 overall.

Crapshoot

05-22-2007, 07:26 PM

How does the protected clause work?

I mean, is this "We'll trade you X for Y, and you have to give us Z if it's #4 or lower, but if it's #1-3, the trade is just straight X for Y," or does Phoenix get some other compensation if Atlanta's pick is top three?

What happens generally is protection is temporary - IE, we'll give you our pick in 2007 unless its top 10, 2008 unless its top 3, or 2009 no matter what. Its not perpetual.

Atocep

05-22-2007, 07:28 PM

How does the protected clause work?

I mean, is this "We'll trade you X for Y, and you have to give us Z if it's #4 or lower, but if it's #1-3, the trade is just straight X for Y," or does Phoenix get some other compensation if Atlanta's pick is top three?

If Atlanta's pick is top 3 Atlanta's pick next year is unprotected. Usually its a sliding scale that will go something like; year 1 - lottery protected, year 2 - top 3 protected, year 3 - no protection.

Just an example, but its usually something similar to that.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:28 PM

Its a big dropoff in comparison to Durant and Oden, but when you compare 3-10 to previous drafts and this one pretty strong. I don't see anyone trading out of the top 10 this year. Yi and Brandan Wright would get solid consideration for #1 in most years. Noah was considered a top 3 pick last year and he may fall out of the top 10 in this draft.

Yeah, this is a pretty deep draft talent wise, but it seems tough to distinguish who the better prospects are amongst the rest. Guys like Brewer, Conley, Wright, Hortford, Noah, et al could all really go anywhere in the lottery.

Should be at least one or two decent prospects that slide out of the lottery this year too, and I think the Sixers, having 3 1st rounders, could come out of this draft looking pretty good if they pick wisely.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 07:30 PM

Yeah, this is a pretty deep draft talent wise, but it seems tough to distinguish who the better prospects are amongst the rest. Guys like Brewer, Conley, Wright, Hortford, Noah, et al could all really go anywhere in the lottery.

Should be at least one or two decent prospects that slide out of the lottery this year too, and I think the Sixers, having 3 1st rounders, could come out of this draft looking pretty good if they pick wisely.

You are asking a lot of Billy King!;)

larrymcg421

05-22-2007, 07:31 PM

I'd put a healthy Tony Allen in there for Green and move Pierce to the 3. Also a healthy Wally S. could be a great contributor.

Yeah, that will definitely work too, but we need to get Green some more minutes. He's got tons of potential, but needs some floor time to reach it.

SackAttack

05-22-2007, 07:32 PM

Thanks for all the responses, guys. I haven't seen anything written pertaining to protection except for the fact that THIS year's pick is top 3-protected.

Learned something about the draft today!

Logan

05-22-2007, 07:39 PM

If Atlanta's pick is top 3 Atlanta's pick next year is unprotected. Usually its a sliding scale that will go something like; year 1 - lottery protected, year 2 - top 3 protected, year 3 - no protection.

Just an example, but its usually something similar to that.

Well, Memphis definitely was able to get #1 overall protection after years of pushing back the Otis Thorpe deal discussed earlier. They didn't get the #1, so they had to give the pick to Detroit.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 07:46 PM

Where is Elgin Baylor?!!!

Sublime 2

05-22-2007, 07:47 PM

CMON TOMMMYYY!

Atocep

05-22-2007, 07:47 PM

Well, Memphis definitely was able to get #1 overall protection after years of pushing back the Otis Thorpe deal discussed earlier. They didn't get the #1, so they had to give the pick to Detroit.

You can protect a pick any way you want when the trade is being discussed. I know Atlanta's pick is unprotected next year because I happened to be listening to Phoenix's owner talking about the Atlanta pick on the radio a while back. He was telling fans to hope for Atlanta to get the 4th pick because of how deep this draft is and Atlanta will probably be a lot better next year with a top 3 pick this year.

Logan

05-22-2007, 07:48 PM

You can protect a pick any way you want when the trade is being discussed. I know Atlanta's pick is unprotected next year because I happened to be listening to Phoenix's owner talking about the Atlanta pick on the radio a while back. He was telling fans to hope for Atlanta to get the 4th pick because of how deep this draft is and Atlanta will probably be a lot better next year with a top 3 pick this year.

Gotcha. Thanks for the description.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:48 PM

This guys isn't as cool as Russ Granik.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:50 PM

Hahaha. Fifth pick for Boston. Tanking ain't easy.

Logan

05-22-2007, 07:50 PM

WOW!!!!

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:50 PM

I just ran a mock draft lottery generator on ESPN.com and the winners of the #1 pick were as follows out of 5 tries:

Portland (5.3% chance)
Portland (5.3% chance)
Seattle (8.8% chance)
Memphis (25%)
Bucks (15.6%)

DeToxRox

05-22-2007, 07:50 PM

Good to see Boston fall to 5.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 07:50 PM

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

Logan

05-22-2007, 07:51 PM

Unreal.

Atocep

05-22-2007, 07:51 PM

We'll either get a 30 page rant from Bill Simmons tomorrow or nothing at all.

bulletsponge

05-22-2007, 07:51 PM

LOL F-U Celtics!

molson

05-22-2007, 07:51 PM

Now Danny Ainge has an excuse to coast another 5 years without results.

Edit - Just like Rick Pitino, who claimed he never would have taken the Celtics job if he knew he wouldn't get Tim Duncan. Like everything else after that wasn't his fault.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 07:52 PM

Thank you for the lottery!

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:52 PM

Can someone please post the current draft order?

vex

05-22-2007, 07:52 PM

Insane. Go OKC Sonics!:)

Neuqua

05-22-2007, 07:52 PM

Bulls got 9th. Oh well.

And yes, I'm laughing at the Celtics right now.

cmp

05-22-2007, 07:52 PM

Can't wait for Simmons article tomorrow.

Karlifornia

05-22-2007, 07:53 PM

LMAO@The Celtics

Logan

05-22-2007, 07:53 PM

Anybody figure the odds of those teams getting the 1-3 picks?

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:53 PM

The final three are Portland, Atlanta and Seattle.

st.cronin

05-22-2007, 07:53 PM

Atocep

05-22-2007, 07:53 PM

The look on the Celtics fan's face was perfect.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

3rd pick - Atlanta
2nd pick - Seattle
1st pick - Portland

MikeVic

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

Haha.

Logan

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

Portland is officially stacked.

bulletsponge

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

portland?!?!

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

Oden might demand a trade out of Portland. Don't put it past his agent. They might pull an Eli.

Atocep

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

Durant and Oden go to the West. Lovely....

Neuqua

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

Sucks that that the two studs are going out West. Though its good for the Bulls I guess.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

The final three are Portland, Atlanta and Seattle.

Wow.

molson

05-22-2007, 07:54 PM

Anybody figure the odds of those teams getting the 1-3 picks?

I imagine the odds of any particular 3-team combination would be pretty slim. (Except perhaps the very top 3 in terms of odds)

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:55 PM

See ya later Rashard Lewis.

Brian Swartz

05-22-2007, 07:55 PM

Wow. The West will even be more ridiculously dominant now.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:55 PM

The NBA surely didn't rig this. I mean, Oden in a non-major market? The Pacific Northwest was blessed

Schmidty

05-22-2007, 07:55 PM

Seattle is the true winner, because Durant is the best player in the draft. By far.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 07:56 PM

1 Portland
2. Seattle
3. Atlanta
4. Memphis
5. Boston
6. Milwaukee
7 Minnesota
8. Charlotte
9. Chicago
10. Sacmento
11. Indiana
12. Philly
13. New Orleans
14. Clippers

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:56 PM

That's a pretty great spot for Oden to land, and my ESPN generated Lottery was a little too close to perfect... CONSPIRACY!!!@!

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:57 PM

Yeah, even after broadcasting it, ESPN only had it on the screen for a few seconds.

CraigSca

05-22-2007, 07:57 PM

Oden might demand a trade out of Portland. Don't put it past his agent. They might pull an Eli.

You mean an Elway.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 07:58 PM

You mean an Elway.

Well, no. Unless Oden can play 3rd base.

Logan

05-22-2007, 07:58 PM

Well, the Knicks might have a shot to win the East soon.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 07:59 PM

Oden might demand a trade out of Portland. Don't put it past his agent. They might pull an Eli.

I don't know why. He has a chance to step in straight away and contribute on a team that figures to be at least decent next season.

Maybe it's not a "basketball market" city or whatever, but it's not like the Knicks/Lakers/Whoever are going to be able to offer anythign even remotely plausible in a trade.

Young Drachma

05-22-2007, 08:03 PM

I don't know why. He has a chance to step in straight away and contribute on a team that figures to be at least decent next season.

Maybe it's not a "basketball market" city or whatever, but it's not like the Knicks/Lakers/Whoever are going to be able to offer anythign even remotely plausible in a trade.

I thought about it and you're right. He can be his own Garnett, there aren't many expectations there and he can leave his imprint on a team that wasn't too long ago the NBA's version of the Cincinnati Bengals.

So...yeah. I think he'll do well there. It's probably a better fit than a high-pressure city that would ask him to do stuff he's not prepared to yet.

digamma

05-22-2007, 08:04 PM

For all the conspiracy theorists, Portland's web site was updated awfully quickly.

www.portlandtrailblazers.com (http://www.portlandtrailblazers.com)

MylesKnight

05-22-2007, 08:07 PM

The Hawks get toyed with again.

Kind of like playing a big money hand of Blackjack, getting two faces, with the dealer laying on 16..... and the dealer pulling a 5.

SirFozzie

05-22-2007, 08:07 PM

HOLY FUCK that sucks.

Brian Swartz

05-22-2007, 08:07 PM

Portland is a great fit for Oden I think. They've got a lot of young players getting better there, and McMillan will be good for him I think. Seattle much less so for Durant, he'll be expected to do a lot more right away.

Surtt

05-22-2007, 08:08 PM

Could some one list the whole order? I can not find it anywhere.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 08:09 PM

Blazers actually look pretty good on paper. Jack had a good year at PG though still needs to prove he's a starting quality PG on a winning team, Roy is a great young versatile guard who figures to be, at worst, a quality complimentary player, Zach Randolph has his issues but is one of the better PFs in the league, and Oden is Oden.

Still some dead weight, like Miles in particular, that they need to get rid of, but all in all this is a solid foundation.

MylesKnight

05-22-2007, 08:09 PM

Hard to feel real sorry for the Celts.. What was that I heard on the pre-Lottery broadcast, Boston won the 16 Times in a 30 Year Span.

Share the wealth folks.

Atocep

05-22-2007, 08:09 PM

It's probably a better fit than a high-pressure city that would ask him to do stuff he's not prepared to yet.

I wouldn't have considered Cleveland a high-pressure city before Lebron got there....

MylesKnight

05-22-2007, 08:10 PM

Could some one list the whole order? I can not find it anywhere.

From Miami Fan's earlier post. :)

1 Port.
2. Sea
3. Atl
4. Mem.
5. Bos.
6. Mil.
7 Min.
8. Cha.
9. Chi.
10. Sac.
11. Ind.
12. Phi.
13. N.O.
14. Clips

kurtism

05-22-2007, 08:14 PM

Could be far worse for the Hawks - get the 3 and 11, can secure from frontcourt depth and perhaps finally land a true PG...

Sublime 2

05-22-2007, 08:15 PM

How very boo!

Not sure what the options are for #5 but I'd like to see one of the following in green next season:

Corey Brewer
Al Horford
Yi
Mike Conley

Now time to get shit-blasted.

Crapshoot

05-22-2007, 08:17 PM

The good news for the Hawks is that they keep their pick - at no 4, it would have gone to Phoenix.

SirFozzie

05-22-2007, 08:18 PM

How very boo!

Not sure what the options are for #5 but I'd like to see one of the following in green next season:

Corey Brewer
Al Horford
Yi
Mike Conley

Now time to get shit-blasted.

95% sure it gets traded away. We have way too many young players as is.

Neon_Chaos

05-22-2007, 08:18 PM

The Hawks are breathing a sigh of relief. If they didn't make it into the Top 3 the pick would have gone to the Suns (Joe Johnson trade).

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 08:20 PM

95% sure it gets traded away. We have way too many young players as is.

Good call.

GoldenEagle

05-22-2007, 08:21 PM

I am glad Memphis did not get the #1 pick (I do not think anyone thought that they would). They sooner the Griz get out of Memphis, the better.

Sublime 2

05-22-2007, 08:21 PM

95% sure it gets traded away. We have way too many young players as is.

As long as there getting a very good player in return, that's great. But I'd rather keep it if we're just going to get Tony Delk - Rodney Rogers crap in return (obviously).

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 08:22 PM

15. Orlando (To Detroit) 40-42
16. Washington 41-41
17. New Jersey 41-41
18. Golden State 42-40
19. LA Lakers 42-40
20. Miami 44-38
21. Denver (To Philadelphia) 45-37
22. Toronto (To Charlotte via Cleveland) 47-35
23. Chicago 49-33
24. Cleveland (To Phoenix via Boston) 50-32
25. Utah 51-31
26. Houston 52-30
27. Detroit 53-29
28. San Antonio 58-24
29. Phoenix 61-21
30. Dallas (To Philadelphia via Denver and Golden State) 67-15

JonInMiddleGA

05-22-2007, 08:22 PM

Could be far worse for the Hawks - get the 3 and 11, can secure from frontcourt depth and perhaps finally land a true PG...

I think it'll probably be the other way around (if someone with a brain somehow takes over the draft). Conley and then whatever big is still around.

Of course, given the ineptitude in the front office, it's also reasonable to believe that both picks will come from the following group: Brandan Wright (6'9"), Glen Davis (6'9"), Jeff Green (6'9"), Julian Wright (6'8"), Thaddeus Young (6'8"), Al Thornton (6'8"), Corey Brewer (6'9")

RedKingGold

05-22-2007, 08:31 PM

As a 76er's fan, having Boston fall to the 5th overall pick greatly makes up for the 76er's non-sucky enough season ruining its chances.

DaddyTorgo

05-22-2007, 08:31 PM

molson

05-22-2007, 08:35 PM

95% sure it gets traded away. We have way too many young players as is.

With young players comes job security for a GM. Your team can always be considered "improving". I'm convinced Ainge will blow up the team again and trade for yet more younger draft picks and younger players. And the Boston media and fans still haven't blinked - he's had the longest honeymoon period I can remember.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 08:37 PM

where'd all this celtics-hatred come from anyways? I mean I understand that prior to the 90's they were the yankees of basketball, but excepting those marginally-decent teams they've had that have snuck into the playoffs and made runs to the conference finals, it's not like they've scared anyone for the past...15 years or so. Is this all residual hatred from your childhood or something?

It comes more from the fact that Paul Pierce spent most of 2006-07 nursing his broken nails on the sideline in the hopes that they'd get Oden or, worst case, Durant.

DaddyTorgo

05-22-2007, 08:38 PM

With young players comes job security for a GM. Your team can always be considered "improving". I'm convinced Ainge will blow up the team again and trade for yet more younger draft picks and younger players. And the Boston media and fan still haven't blinked - he's had the longest honeymoon period I can remember.

fixed for you

Capital

05-22-2007, 08:40 PM

I think it'll probably be the other way around (if someone with a brain somehow takes over the draft). Conley and then whatever big is still around.

Of course, given the ineptitude in the front office, it's also reasonable to believe that both picks will come from the following group: Brandan Wright (6'9"), Glen Davis (6'9"), Jeff Green (6'9"), Julian Wright (6'8"), Thaddeus Young (6'8"), Al Thornton (6'8"), Corey Brewer (6'9")

I doubt that the Hawks will take Conley...my guess is Al Horford to play power forward. He may be a little undersized but the "experts" don't believe it will be a problem. It will be interesting to see if Hibbert gets any excitement as a center.

Capital

05-22-2007, 08:41 PM

For a fraction of a second, I thought that Hawks just might win the lottery (or at least get second)...but alas not to be. While still grateful, getting 3rd in this lottery is like being invited to the dance but not being allowed to dance.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 08:42 PM

I doubt that the Hawks will take Conley...my guess is Al Horford to play power forward. He may be a little undersized but the "experts" don't believe it will be a problem. It will be interesting to see if Hibbert gets any excitement as a center.

Don't they already have their undersized PF of the future in Shelden Williams?

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 08:43 PM

Hawks will probably blow it and draft the Chinese dude.

JonInMiddleGA

05-22-2007, 08:53 PM

I doubt that the Hawks will take Conley

Actually, I suspect you're right.

He's the only (possibly) NBA-ready PG in this year's draft, and they won't have their 1st rounder next year, so drafting him would simply make waaaaay too much sense for the dumbest GM in the entire league, perhaps in the history of the league.

Eh, what am I thinking? It's the Hawks, the draft picks won't matter. They don't have anybody to coach 'em anyway.

Neon_Chaos

05-22-2007, 08:54 PM

Hawks will probably blow it and draft the Chinese dude.

I'd take Yi Jian Lian in the top 5.

JonInMiddleGA

05-22-2007, 08:54 PM

Hawks will probably blow it and draft the Chinese dude.

Might be. Depends upon whether they think he can also play the point, and both forward spots.

Groundhog

05-22-2007, 09:03 PM

I'd take Yi Jian Lian in the top 5.

It's an unnecessary risk IMO, but I agree that he'll go top 5 or 6 due to all the same old reasons... mainly because teams just seem to love gambling in the draft rather than picking players that figure to be able to help straight away.

Crapshoot

05-22-2007, 09:04 PM

Actually, I suspect you're right.

He's the only (possibly) NBA-ready PG in this year's draft, and they won't have their 1st rounder next year, so drafting him would simply make waaaaay too much sense for the dumbest GM in the entire league, perhaps in the history of the league.

Eh, what am I thinking? It's the Hawks, the draft picks won't matter. They don't have anybody to coach 'em anyway.

Now now - can't we agree that Isiah has a reasonable claim here?

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 09:08 PM

I'd take Yi Jian Lian in the top 5.

I am assuming that you have seen him play. What kind of game does he have and what sort of real expectations should we have of him?

Like I said earlier, the Darko pick makes picking him a scary prospect for any fans of a team in the lottery.

Neon_Chaos

05-22-2007, 09:09 PM

It's an unnecessary risk IMO, but I agree that he'll go top 5 or 6 due to all the same old reasons... mainly because teams just seem to love gambling in the draft rather than picking players that figure to be able to help straight away.

But if you're Memphis or Boston, I sincerely think that there aren't any players outside of Oden/Durant who can help straight away and right the ship. Might as well draft the Chinese dude, get a ton of publicity and ensuing $$$.

Add to that the fact that I find a 7-ft SF/PF amusing.

edit:

I hope Memphis drafts Marc Gasol just for the sake of having him play with his older brother. :)

chris3627

05-22-2007, 09:17 PM

Anyone see any chance that the team with the #1 pick trades down? I don't see it myself.

It's probably not going to happen for either of the top 2 picks unless if you can get an all-nba type talent in return. If Phoenix starts talking Stoudemire, you at least have to check out his knees and think about it.

Although I was glad to see the Sonics and Blazers in the top 2. They didn't give off the stink of tanking and incompetence like the 4 teams after them.

stevew

05-22-2007, 09:21 PM

The Hawks have to take Conley. Which means that they will probably opt to pass on him.

MrBug708

05-22-2007, 09:35 PM

So the Lakers are now going to miss the playoffs unless they get better

Logan

05-22-2007, 09:39 PM

Add to that the fact that I find a 7-ft SF/PF amusing.

Have you been laughing at Kevin Garnett for 12 years?

Logan

05-22-2007, 09:41 PM

It's probably not going to happen for either of the top 2 picks unless if you can get an all-nba type talent in return. If Phoenix starts talking Stoudemire, you at least have to check out his knees and think about it.

Although I was glad to see the Sonics and Blazers in the top 2. They didn't give off the stink of tanking and incompetence like the 4 teams after them.

I don't know enough about the Sonics (or the Celtics, to be honest)...would any type of package with the #4 pick entice them to move down 2 spots? Something like Jefferson, Green, and the pick? A future 1st rounder as well? Just brainstorming...no dog in this.

MrBug708

05-22-2007, 09:49 PM

Portland will probably find away to trade Randolph (Probably to NY) just to clear out the salary, draft Oden, and then sign away Rashard Lewis from Seattle.

Of course, I think Seattle getting the top 2 pick is certainly a way to try and persuade the owners to stay in that market.

stevew

05-22-2007, 09:51 PM

I don't know enough about the Sonics (or the Celtics, to be honest)...would any type of package with the #4 pick entice them to move down 2 spots? Something like Jefferson, Green, and the pick? A future 1st rounder as well? Just brainstorming...no dog in this.

While in past years when the talent wasn't so well known, you could probably do this. But I strongly doubt Seattle or Portland move out of their slots, it'd be crushing to their fanbase for starters.

miami_fan

05-22-2007, 09:53 PM

While in past years when the talent wasn't so well known, you could probably do this. But I strongly doubt Seattle or Portland move out of their slots, it'd be crushing to their fanbase for starters.

In the case of Seattle, their future fanbase.

stevew

05-22-2007, 09:59 PM

Portland will probably find away to trade Randolph (Probably to NY) just to clear out the salary, draft Oden, and then sign away Rashard Lewis from Seattle.

Actually a straight up trade of those two players would help each team quite a bit.

stevew

05-22-2007, 10:07 PM

dola

I'm not sure I could have hoped for the lottery to go any better IMO. The only thing I would have liked to see is Philly getting a top 2 pick, since they had every reason to tank, but didn't.

I was afraid the Bulls would get a top 2 pick....didn't happen.
Didn't want to see the Celtics or Bucks rewarded....check
Didn't want to see PHX get another high draft pick....check

Warhammer

05-22-2007, 10:15 PM

I am glad Memphis did not get the #1 pick (I do not think anyone thought that they would). They sooner the Griz get out of Memphis, the better.

What is wrong with the Grizzlies in Memphis?

stevew

05-22-2007, 10:17 PM

he doesn't want competition for the other memphis pro basketball team.

Warhammer

05-22-2007, 10:23 PM

Good Lord, do people actually think that the Griz are taking fans away from U of M? I've been to both and the fans are completely different.

DaddyTorgo

05-22-2007, 10:34 PM

st.cronin

05-22-2007, 10:36 PM

Atocep

05-22-2007, 10:40 PM

DaddyTorgo

05-22-2007, 10:54 PM

people are fine with their own team tanking, they're just pissed when someone else tanks, or when someone tanks more effectively than them.

it's so hippocritical

Chief Rum

05-22-2007, 11:34 PM

What happens generally is protection is temporary - IE, we'll give you our pick in 2007 unless its top 10, 2008 unless its top 3, or 2009 no matter what. Its not perpetual.

Yup.

I have been waiting for us (the Clips) to get the Wolves' pick from the Cassell deal two years ago. Somehow they keepavoiding giving it to us (it was top ten protected). I hope it's not protected at all next year. Three years seems way too long to wait for a first round pick from a trade.

MrBug708

05-22-2007, 11:40 PM

he doesn't want competition for the other memphis pro basketball team.

Well, to be fair, the Griz players get paid much much less :)

Chief Rum

05-22-2007, 11:41 PM

Actually, I suspect you're right.

He's the only (possibly) NBA-ready PG in this year's draft, and they won't have their 1st rounder next year, so drafting him would simply make waaaaay too much sense for the dumbest GM in the entire league, perhaps in the history of the league.

Eh, what am I thinking? It's the Hawks, the draft picks won't matter. They don't have anybody to coach 'em anyway.

I know the Hawks haven't made too many bright moves, but, honestly, how can your GM possibly be the dumbest when his peers are the likes of Isaiah Thomas and Kevin McHale?

path12

05-22-2007, 11:47 PM

Of course, I think Seattle getting the top 2 pick is certainly a way to try and persuade the owners to stay in that market.

I'm going to be shocked if the Sonics end up staying in Seattle. This city is just not interested in building a new arena, plain and simple. And I really can't disagree with that view either -- I mean, I love Safeco and Qwest Field, but there's nothing wrong with Key Arena from a fan standpoint, it's from an ownership standpoint that there's a problem with it (luxury boxes, parking, etc).

mckerney

05-23-2007, 12:00 AM

Yup.

I have been waiting for us (the Clips) to get the Wolves' pick from the Cassell deal two years ago. Somehow they keepavoiding giving it to us (it was top ten protected). I hope it's not protected at all next year. Three years seems way too long to wait for a first round pick from a trade.

Wolves protection to Clippers:
2007 - Top 10
2008 - Top 5
2009 - Top 3
2011 - #1 overall
2012 - None

Two points though:
1. You're getting a first rounder for Marko Jaric, you shouldn't be allowed to complain about not getting it soon enough. :p
2. You're getting the pick from a team that gave up a first rounder for Marko Jaric, it could be a few years.

EDIT: Oh, I forgot that Randy Wittman just got an extension, and a trade of Ricky Avis is unlikely. Wolves picking top 5 should be a lock for next year.

Izulde

05-23-2007, 12:10 AM

Damn, I was hoping the Celtics would get the #1 pick :( I really wanted to see Oden in green.

Izulde

05-23-2007, 12:11 AM

dola,

Had that happened, I might've actually started watching the NBA again.

Arles

05-23-2007, 12:13 AM

Chief Rum

05-23-2007, 12:14 AM

Wolves protection to Clippers:
2007 - Top 10
2008 - Top 5
2009 - Top 3
2011 - #1 overall
2012 - None

Two points though:
1. You're getting a first rounder for Marko Jaric, you shouldn't be allowed to complain about not getting it soon enough. :p
2. You're getting the pick from a team that gave up a first rounder for Marko Jaric, it could be a few years.

EDIT: Oh, I forgot that Randy Wittman just got an extension, and a trade of Ricky Avis is unlikely. Wolves picking top 5 should be a lock for next year.

lol...all too true.

It's funny, last week I was thinking about the lottery and our rights to your pick, and I must have been addled, because I remember thinking, "It seems right giving up a first rounder for Cassell." Then I realized my mistake and laughed at how ridiculous that trade was (and we all knew it when it went down two years ago, too).

Personally, I think we should deal our rights to that pick for more immediate help.

chris3627

05-23-2007, 12:15 AM

so all of a sudden now, the C's have been tanking because they have a roster that is 95% under the age of 22 and so were forced to play their kids all year? not like they had anyone else that could play. But I don't necessarily KNOW this, as I've said, I didn't watch a minute all season. I'm relying on the opinions of people who did watch the games, versus the "PTI Crowd" and "ESPN storyline" that you all are buying into.

and if you were paul pierce wouldn't you shut it down too? not like he's the first star to shut it down (in various sports)

Pierce is, and should be, more than 5%. I don't follow the Celtics that much, so I might not be entirely correct, but it seemed to me that they were in a division that at the midpoint of the season anyone had a chance to win and the effort just wasn't there. I'm not indicting Pierce personally, I don't think he would tank. Look at how he played all 82 games (and probably led the league in minutes played) six weeks after he got stabbed nearly to death. But as happened with Jordan the year he broke his foot, the team didn't want to risk his health and wanted to tank the season, and MJ told them to screw off. The management wanted to tank because they didn't think they would have a good season. But the celtics weren't alone in tanking, all the teams that ended up 3 thru 7 just seemed to absolutely wave the white flag at the end and make it look so obvious.

Now I'm thinking it's a shame that the Sonics got the second pick (assuming it's Durant). When I first saw the result and imagined Durant with Allen and Lewis, wow, talk about a three amigos of outside shooters/scorers. But it probably won't be, oh well.

Chief Rum

05-23-2007, 12:16 AM

This may be the worst 7-day period in the history of the Phoenix Suns. We have the bench episode that loses game 5, get beat in game 6 by SA. Then, with a 62% chance at getting the 4-7 pick, Phoenix loses out completely. Robert Sarver must have slept with Stern's wife or something...

At this point, you have to hope the Suns can get one more contributor from the 24 and 29th picks they have. You also have to hope atlanta somehow drafts big Yi and some stiff center like Hibert and hope neither help next season and the Hawks still finish in the top 12. But, at this rate, Stern would add another 10-15 wins to get them to the tail end of the lottery.

Some other things Stern could do this offseason to hurt the Suns:

1. Revoke Nash's ability to work in the US and the Suns can only play him in a few games against Toronto.
2. Decide to remove the handcheck from the rulebook alltogether.
3. Penalize a team with a technical foul if they score with more than 18 seconds on the shot clock.
4. Add in a rule that once you reach 100, you start back at 0 on the scoreboard.
5. Schedule 30 back-to-back for Suns in the first month, give them a month off then schedule another 30 back-to-backs (although, this may actually make D'Antoni play his bench. On second thought, who am I kidding).
6. Suspend Amare and Marion for half the 07 season because they "left the bench" after losing to SA in game 6. Stu convinces Stern that there's nothing in the rule book that says the game has to still be going on for the "bench rule" to take effect.

Wouldn't worry about 6. From all the rumors I am hearing, at least one of those guys won't even be on the Suns.

Arles

05-23-2007, 12:26 AM

Wouldn't worry about 6. From all the rumors I am hearing, at least one of those guys won't even be on the Suns.
Please tell me you aren't putting any credence to "Sam Smith" and the other crap from Chicago?

Amare's not going anywhere and Marion's been rumored to be traded in each of the past three seasons. Neither are going anywhere.

Chief Rum

05-23-2007, 12:45 AM

Please tell me you aren't putting any credence to "Sam Smith" and the other crap from Chicago?

Amare's not going anywhere and Marion's been rumored to be traded in each of the past three seasons. Neither are going anywhere.

I haven't heard anything about Chicago actually. I am just hearing that Pheonix's owner doesn't want to pay three superstars anymore, with the luxury tax looming. Since Nash is untouchable, that means Amare or (more likely) Marion will be on their way out, especially with your GM lacking a contract extension past June (he seems to be the main guy standing against making any attempt to move either of those guys).

Arles

05-23-2007, 12:55 AM

I haven't heard anything about Chicago actually. I am just hearing that Pheonix's owner doesn't want to pay three superstars anymore, with the luxury tax looming. Since Nash is untouchable, that means Amare or (more likely) Marion will be on their way out, especially with your GM lacking a contract extension past June (he seems to be the main guy standing against making any attempt to move either of those guys).
Uh, Phoenix's GM is Mike D'Antoni and he loves Marion and is on the record as stating he won't trade Marion unless the Suns get a very good player in return. If the Suns need to save money, guys like Banks, James Jones, Kurt Thomas and Diaw will go long before Marion.

Mr. Wednesday

05-23-2007, 12:56 AM

so all of a sudden now, the C's have been tanking because they have a roster that is 95% under the age of 22 and so were forced to play their kids all year?
I think they tanked once it was obvious (post-Pierce injury) that the team was in the running for a good lottery position. An analogy might be San Antonio's pre-Duncan season (though obviously Boston wasn't as good in the previous season as San Antonio).

Mr. Wednesday

05-23-2007, 12:58 AM

Pierce is, and should be, more than 5%. I don't follow the Celtics that much, so I might not be entirely correct, but it seemed to me that they were in a division that at the midpoint of the season anyone had a chance to win and the effort just wasn't there.
No, that's not true. They were doing OK, then Pierce got hurt, and they just couldn't win without him. It wasn't until they were already way in the hole that they went in the tank to consolidate or improve their lottery position.

DeToxRox

05-23-2007, 01:02 AM

Shawn Marion is the most underused player in the NBA and he should be featured a helluva' lot more then Amare Stoudamire.

Stoudamire is the weak link on the Suns and I know I'll take flack for it but they need to get get rid of him and let Marion be the focal point of the offense. Amare can go to some inconsequential team and be the stat filler he is and always will be, because if you invest too much in him, you better keep Nash in his prime equally as long, otherwise Amare will be out there like a WR with no QB to get him the ball.

albionmoonlight

05-23-2007, 05:30 AM

I don't know if it's good for a guy whose already as mellow as Oden to go to the weed capital of the NBA. He might end up in a coma.

stevew

05-23-2007, 06:53 AM

This may be the worst 7-day period in the history of the Phoenix Suns. We have the bench episode that loses game 5, get beat in game 6 by SA. Then, with a 62% chance at getting the 4-7 pick, Phoenix loses out completely. Robert Sarver must have slept with Stern's wife or something...

At this point, you have to hope the Suns can get one more contributor from the 24 and 29th picks they have. You also have to hope atlanta somehow drafts big Yi and some stiff center like Hibert and hope neither help next season and the Hawks still finish in the top 12. But, at this rate, Stern would add another 10-15 wins to get them to the tail end of the lottery.

Some other things Stern could do this offseason to hurt the Suns:

1. Revoke Nash's ability to work in the US and the Suns can only play him in a few games against Toronto.
2. Decide to remove the handcheck from the rulebook alltogether.
3. Penalize a team with a technical foul if they score with more than 18 seconds on the shot clock.
4. Add in a rule that once you reach 100, you start back at 0 on the scoreboard.
5. Schedule 30 back-to-back for Suns in the first month, give them a month off then schedule another 30 back-to-backs (although, this may actually make D'Antoni play his bench. On second thought, who am I kidding).
6. Suspend Amare and Marion for half the 07 season because they "left the bench" after losing to SA in game 6. Stu convinces Stern that there's nothing in the rule book that says the game has to still be going on for the "bench rule" to take effect.

Who would you have targetted at 4th or worse? Conley Jr? a big guy? Just curious as to what your opinon was.

Gary Gorski

05-23-2007, 09:27 AM

This may be the worst 7-day period in the history of the Phoenix Suns. We have the bench episode that loses game 5, get beat in game 6 by SA. Then, with a 62% chance at getting the 4-7 pick, Phoenix loses out completely. Robert Sarver must have slept with Stern's wife or something...

At this point, you have to hope the Suns can get one more contributor from the 24 and 29th picks they have. You also have to hope atlanta somehow drafts big Yi and some stiff center like Hibert and hope neither help next season and the Hawks still finish in the top 12. .

Don't sweat it Arlie, Phoenix wasn't going to win that series whether or not Stern enforced the "leaving the bench rule" :) For as vanilla and methodical as the Spurs are there's not a better team in the NBA than they are. While I'm sure the NBA (and probably alot of fans) would have liked to see a run and gun Phoenix/Chicago final those teams just aren't as complete as San Antonio and Detroit.

I think Phoenix has to make some kind of move. They're fun to watch, they score a bunch of points, Steve Nash has turned guys like Boris Diaw into known players but it just doesn't seem to work. They're not going to trade Nash and obviously the owner doesn't want to pay a 4th guy big money since they traded Joe Johnson so the only way to shake things up is move Marion or Amare. How many times do you want this group to finish behind San Antonio (or Dallas) and now Portland is going to be a beast with Roy and Oden (not to mention their other good young guys like Aldridge). The window is closing for them.

To be honest I would hate to see them trade either of those guys though. I don't know what kind of financial situation Sarver's in but why not open the checkbook one time, grab that 4th high priced player and take one shot at it and if it doesn't work blow it up? Zach Randolph will likely be available now, Rashard Lewis is a free agent, Gasol has been available for months, maybe even try to make a run at Indiana and see if they'll move O'Neal. One more big guy who can rebound, run the floor and play some defense and they might get there but that's going to make them pay the luxury tax. They might as well fill the bench with guys playing for the league minimum anyways since the bench doesn't play :)

Arles

05-23-2007, 09:53 AM

Who would you have targetted at 4th or worse? Conley Jr? a big guy? Just curious as to what your opinon was.
Brewer. A starting lineup of Nash - Bell - Brewer - Marion - Amare with Barbosa, KT, Grant Hill and Diaw would have been a very good offseason. Maybe Al Horford as well, but I wanted Brewer.

Arles

05-23-2007, 10:02 AM

Don't sweat it Arlie, Phoenix wasn't going to win that series whether or not Stern enforced the "leaving the bench rule" :) For as vanilla and methodical as the Spurs are there's not a better team in the NBA than they are. While I'm sure the NBA (and probably alot of fans) would have liked to see a run and gun Phoenix/Chicago final those teams just aren't as complete as San Antonio and Detroit.
That's fair, but I think game 5 in Phoenix would have been much different with Amare and Diaw playing. If the Suns win that game, you have a game 7 in Phoenix where anything goes.

I think Phoenix has to make some kind of move. They're fun to watch, they score a bunch of points, Steve Nash has turned guys like Boris Diaw into known players but it just doesn't seem to work. They're not going to trade Nash and obviously the owner doesn't want to pay a 4th guy big money since they traded Joe Johnson so the only way to shake things up is move Marion or Amare. How many times do you want this group to finish behind San Antonio (or Dallas) and now Portland is going to be a beast with Roy and Oden (not to mention their other good young guys like Aldridge). The window is closing for them.
The Suns have under 26 key players in Amare, Diaw, Barbosa. They have Bell and Marion who are still at a high level and Nash who should have 2-3 more years left. They also have a large expiring contract (Kurt Thomas), a "nice" tradeable player in James Jones (making $2.5 mil), 2 first round picks this season and 2 first round picks next season.

With decent management, the Suns should be competitive for a while. What it comes down to is deciding if you want to extend Marion after next season. If the answer is "No", maybe package him, Kurt and a pick for a bigtime player (ie, Garnett). If the answer is "Yes", maybe move Kurt and Jones to save some cash and sign guys like PJ Brown and Grant Hill to provide experience from the bench.

To be honest I would hate to see them trade either of those guys though. I don't know what kind of financial situation Sarver's in but why not open the checkbook one time, grab that 4th high priced player and take one shot at it and if it doesn't work blow it up?
That's probably what will happen. We will try to move Kurt, James Jones and Banks (maybe throw in the 29th pick) to get 1-2 bench options. Then, it looks like the Suns would like to bring in Grant Hill to be their 8th guy. So, you are looking at Nash, Bell, Marion, Amare, Diaw, Barbosa, traded player, Grant Hill and No. 24 pick. That's not horrible and you can see how this season goes.

Zach Randolph will likely be available now, Rashard Lewis is a free agent, Gasol has been available for months, maybe even try to make a run at Indiana and see if they'll move O'Neal.
O'Neal is basically an older Amare with worse knees and a bad shoulder - no thanks. The Suns don't need another soft Euro who can shoot (Gasol), Lewis will cost to much in FA and Randolph isn't a good compliment for Amare. The Suns need a shotblocker, vet scorer off the bench and a little more mental toughness. These guys offer none of that. The positive is what the Suns need isn't all that expensive (mental tough vets off the bench). They are fine from a talent stanpoint but need guys like Horry, Finley, Grant Hill, McDyess and others.

JPhillips

05-23-2007, 10:11 AM

I just saw a clip of Ainge saying, "We're a playoff team right now."

Did I miss the NBA switching to a 29 team playoff?

miami_fan

05-23-2007, 10:16 AM

I just saw a clip of Ainge saying, "We're a playoff team right now."

Did I miss the NBA switching to a 29 team playoff?

Maybe he is just saying that his "playoff" team just did not play to its potential this year?:D

MylesKnight

05-23-2007, 10:16 AM

I just saw a clip of Ainge saying, "We're a playoff team right now."

Did I miss the NBA switching to a 29 team playoff?

Being in the East, it's not that far fetched. Somewhere in the area of 36-38 wins can get you the #8 Seed on that side of the League on a pretty regular basis.

rkmsuf

05-23-2007, 10:22 AM

Being in the East, it's not that far fetched. Somewhere in the area of 36-38 wins can get you the #8 Seed on that side of the League on a pretty regular basis.

whoopdee damn doo

Gary Gorski

05-23-2007, 10:29 AM

The Suns have under 26 key players in Amare, Diaw, Barbosa. They have Bell and Marion who are still at a high level and Nash who should have 2-3 more years left. They also have a large expiring contract (Kurt Thomas), a "nice" tradeable player in James Jones (making $2.5 mil), 2 first round picks this season and 2 first round picks next season.

With decent management, the Suns should be competitive for a while...That's probably what will happen. We will try to move Kurt, James Jones and Banks (maybe throw in the 29th pick) to get 1-2 bench options. Then, it looks like the Suns would like to bring in Grant Hill to be their 8th guy. So, you are looking at Nash, Bell, Marion, Amare, Diaw, Barbosa, traded player, Grant Hill and No. 24 pick. That's not horrible and you can see how this season goes.

Competitive sure - you're competitive now but wouldn't you like to win a championship? Diaw, Barbosa and Amare is not championship material - remove Nash from this team and they're competitive as in 7th seed in the playoffs. If they're going to win a title they have to do it while Nash still can play at the level he's at now. The team you listed above will score points, win plenty of games and be sitting at home next year again during the conference and NBA Finals.

O'Neal is basically an older Amare with worse knees and a bad shoulder - no thanks. The Suns don't need another soft Euro who can shoot (Gasol), Lewis will cost to much in FA and Randolph isn't a good compliment for Amare. The Suns need a shotblocker, vet scorer off the bench and a little more mental toughness. These guys offer none of that. The positive is what the Suns need isn't all that expensive (mental tough vets off the bench). They are fine from a talent stanpoint but need guys like Horry, Finley, Grant Hill, McDyess and others.

O'Neal is an older Amare except he plays defense (2.6 BPG - twice that of Amare) and Jermaine plays with a ton of heart - he struggled through his knee injury to still put on a hell of a performance against Detroit a few years back. Gasol is also a good shotblocker (2.14 BPG) who has gotten much more aggressive the past two seasons to shed that "soft" label and still has many seasons left in him. Lewis will cost alot but what difference does that make? You're going to have to trade for any of those players so you're moving out salary you want to dump anyway like Kurt Thomas.

The Suns need a starting big man to get over that hump - not a broken down Grant Hill. Phoenix needs what Rasheed Wallace was to Detroit. How many titles did Detroit win after acquiring the mentally tough sixth man Antonio McDyess? None. But we pick up another starter in Webber and we're back in the hunt. It's not like team Nash/Marion/Amare just finally got on the verge of winning - they've been there for three seasons now and tinkering with the bench (that he's not going to play anyway) isn't going to help get them to the title.

Arles

05-23-2007, 10:49 AM

It's not like team Nash/Marion/Amare just finally got on the verge of winning - they've been there for three seasons now and tinkering with the bench (that he's not going to play anyway) isn't going to help get them to the title.
I completely disagree. If Amare and Diaw play, there's a good argument that the Suns beat SA in game 5 and game 7. Last season, they were 1-2 wins from the NBA finals without Amare. If this team has it's full 6-7 man team available for all games, they have yet to lose a playoff series. It's just when Amare, Diaw, Joe Johnson and Raja Bell are injured/suspended where they've faltered.

Saying the Suns are not on the verge of winning a title is simply not true. There are *maybe* two better teams than the Suns right now in Detroit and SA. Detroit will be older next year and who knows what will happen with Billups and Webber. The Suns were in a very competitive series with SA and without the bad break in game 5, they might have beaten the Spurs this season. You add another year of development to Amare, Barbosa, Diaw and a few better bench options and there's every reason to believe the Suns can be a title contender in 07.

Anthony

05-23-2007, 10:55 AM

i'm rooting for the Jazz cuz i can't stand the Spurs anymore. and i really hate the Pistons. i could have rooted for the Bulls. Bulls/Jazz would have been an awesome rematch from '98. 98 Finals had 3 Hall of Famers (MJ, Malone and Stockton). a Bulls/Jazz Finals this year would have been funny in comparison to that.

JPhillips

05-23-2007, 10:59 AM

HA: Four HOFers. Pippen will eventually make it.

korme

05-23-2007, 11:24 AM

I am assuming that you have seen him play. What kind of game does he have and what sort of real expectations should we have of him?

Like I said earlier, the Darko pick makes picking him a scary prospect for any fans of a team in the lottery.

It's unfortunate that Darko Milicec has made you frown upon the prospects overseas. Yes, he didn't even turn out to be the 15th best player in that draft, but all in all, consider these draft picks, who at the time were complete unknowns, with everybody shaking their "WTF" sticks:

1998, #9 overall: Dirk Nowitski, Germany
1999, #24 overall: Andrei Kirilenko, Russia
1999, #57 overall: Emanuel Ginobili, Argentina
2001, #3 overall: Pau Gasol, Spain
2001, #28 overall: Tony Parker, France
2001, #37 overall: Mehmet Okur, Turkey
2002, #1 overall: Yao Ming, China
2002, #7 overall: Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, Brazil
2002, #24 overall: Nenad Krstic, Serbia & Montenegro
2003, #21 overall: Boris Diaw, France
2003, #28 overall: Leandrinho Barbosa, Brazil
2003, #42 overall: Zaur Pachulia, Georgia
2006, #1 overall: Andrea Bargnani, Italy

Look at that influx of talent. Besides Yao, how much did we know about them, as fans? GMs, despite most of their incompetencies, are doing their homework on Yi.

I see only one top 10 foreigner that, aside from Darko, has been considered a bust (Nikoloz Tskitishvili to Denver @ #5).

st.cronin

05-23-2007, 11:28 AM

Don't forget Frederic Weiss.

larrymcg421

05-23-2007, 11:29 AM

With a healthy Pierce and Tony Allen, I don't see why the Celtics can't make the playoffs. Last year, they had just started finding their footing in mid-December by going on a 5 game winning streak to bring their record to 13-18. This is when Pierce got injured. After that, they went on a 6 game losing streak and any minimal chance they had left was destroyed when Tony Allen went out for the season.

A lineup of Jefferson, Gomes, Pierce, Allen, West with Szczerbiak, Green, and Perkins coming off the bench should be more than enough to get the 8th seed.

Atocep

05-23-2007, 11:29 AM

Hibbert is reportedly pulling out of the draft and going back to Georgetown. Wondering if Jeff Green will follow him or stay in.

rkmsuf

05-23-2007, 11:38 AM

st.cronin

05-23-2007, 11:44 AM

Also didn't Dallas draft the "Russian Shaquille O'Neal" with like the 5th pick a couple of years ago? Whatever happened to that guy?

mckerney

05-23-2007, 11:46 AM

For as vanilla and methodical as the Spurs are there's not a better team in the NBA than they are. While I'm sure the NBA (and probably alot of fans) would have liked to see a run and gun Phoenix/Chicago final those teams just aren't as complete as San Antonio and Detroit.

Funny with all the complaining about the lack of fundamentals and defense in the NBA no one seems to want to see teams that win with fundamentals and defense move on in the playoffs.

albionmoonlight

05-23-2007, 11:51 AM

Also didn't Dallas draft the "Russian Shaquille O'Neal" with like the 5th pick a couple of years ago? Whatever happened to that guy?

It was the 21st pick. And I guess he's got lots of time to work on his Russian cover of Shaq Diesel.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Podkolzin

DeToxRox

05-23-2007, 11:52 AM

Assuming Detroit keeps Billups, that pick at fifteen is huge for them this year in hopes they finally land a guy who can play 20 minutes a game and score, as well as run the point effectively enough. My dream pick is the Pistons landing Acie Law, though I am not sure he'll last that long. I think a pick like that though could keep Detroit's dominance of the East going for a few more years.

Pumpy Tudors

05-23-2007, 11:55 AM

Can Memphis trade the #4 pick for a coach?

st.cronin

05-23-2007, 12:02 PM

Can Memphis trade the #4 pick for a coach?

I bet Ainge would trade Doc Rivers for the pick.

Pumpy Tudors

05-23-2007, 12:05 PM

I bet Ainge would trade Doc Rivers for the pick.
Shit. Never mind.

Gary Gorski

05-23-2007, 12:26 PM

I completely disagree. If Amare and Diaw play, there's a good argument that the Suns beat SA in game 5 and game 7. Last season, they were 1-2 wins from the NBA finals without Amare. If this team has it's full 6-7 man team available for all games, they have yet to lose a playoff series. It's just when Amare, Diaw, Joe Johnson and Raja Bell are injured/suspended where they've faltered.

OK I'll bite - what's the good argument that they win games 5 and 7? They got beat at home in game 1 and if it wasn't for a 12-1 run at the end of game 4 they lose that one too. They were ahead by as many as 16 during game 5, again at home and without Amare, and couldn't close it out. The Suns also have never won a best of seven playoff series when it was tied 2-2 so saying they would have won games 5 (with Amare and Diaw) and 7 isn't such a given.

Nash has made comments during the playoffs about some people giving effort and others not and I've also read comments that Amare is a problem in the locker room because he thinks people give Nash too much credit for his play and that he should be looked at as the superstar on the team. Don't know if that's true or not but they sure looked alright without him for a good chunk of game 5. I'm sure its possible that Phoenix wins games 5 and 7 - they're a good team - but I don't see this Spurs team losing game 7 to anyone. I remember the Pistons prior to winning the title - we had some phenomenal years with a great nucleus of Billups, Rip, Prince and Ben but it wasn't enough to get over the hump. We needed Sheed and I think the Suns, for as good as they are, still need somebody of the calibur of a Rasheed Wallace to add to that lineup. Bench guys are great but in the end it comes down to your best 5 vs their best 5 and I think it would serve Phoenix well to add one more to their best 5.

miami_fan

05-23-2007, 12:44 PM

It's unfortunate that Darko Milicec has made you frown upon the prospects overseas. Yes, he didn't even turn out to be the 15th best player in that draft, but all in all, consider these draft picks, who at the time were complete unknowns, with everybody shaking their "WTF" sticks:

1998, #9 overall: Dirk Nowitski, Germany
1999, #24 overall: Andrei Kirilenko, Russia
1999, #57 overall: Emanuel Ginobili, Argentina
2001, #3 overall: Pau Gasol, Spain
2001, #28 overall: Tony Parker, France
2001, #37 overall: Mehmet Okur, Turkey
2002, #1 overall: Yao Ming, China
2002, #7 overall: Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, Brazil
2002, #24 overall: Nenad Krstic, Serbia & Montenegro
2003, #21 overall: Boris Diaw, France
2003, #28 overall: Leandrinho Barbosa, Brazil
2003, #42 overall: Zaur Pachulia, Georgia
2006, #1 overall: Andrea Bargnani, Italy

Look at that influx of talent. Besides Yao, how much did we know about them, as fans? GMs, despite most of their incompetencies, are doing their homework on Yi.

I see only one top 10 foreigner that, aside from Darko, has been considered a bust (Nikoloz Tskitishvili to Denver @ #5).

At the time I made my first comment about him, ESPN was doing a story talking about him as a top 5 pick. As a top 5 pick, he scares the hell out of me if I were a fan of the Blazers, Sonics, Hawks, Grizzlies, or the Celtics. Like most of the fans of those teams, I have not seen him play. He may be the 7 foot version of Michael Jordan for all I know. I have no problem with overseas prospects. This overseas prospect in this top five scares me if my team were in the top five.

Brian Swartz

05-23-2007, 12:50 PM

Another thing that I think is being overlooked here with the suspensions is the fact that Diaw basically gave Phoenix nothing and without Amare, Marion played the 4 and played it very well. He's a much better player at that position than the 3, as you can see by the fact that he's pretty much invisible when they go with the Thomas/Stoudemire/Marion lineup up front. Much of the difference in personnel in Game 5 was to Phoenix's benefit, and the suspensions didn't hurt them as much as most like to believe.

Having said that I do think Phoenix is very close ... what they need is for Amare to grow up at the defensive end and start playing defense when his man doesn't have the ball, rotate to the right spots, etc. He doesn't need to become Duncan in this regard but he does need to stop being a liability. It would help if D'Antoni wasn't getting outcoached too, but I don't think there's a better coach out there for them.

With decent management, the Suns should be competitive for a while...That's probably what will happen. We will try to move Kurt, James Jones and Banks (maybe throw in the 29th pick) to get 1-2 bench options. Then, it looks like the Suns would like to bring in Grant Hill to be their 8th guy. So, you are looking at Nash, Bell, Marion, Amare, Diaw, Barbosa, traded player, Grant Hill and No. 24 pick. That's not horrible and you can see how this season goes.

If you want to beat San Antonio, this is the wrong way to go. It's a great way to guarantee Amare Stoudemire is in perpetual foul trouble -- there's no way he can guard Duncan and not be. Plus, he isn't at the level mentally and physically where he can take on the true superstar role of being a focal point at both ends of the floor, so his offense would suffer as well. Kurt Thomas is the reason this wasn't another 5-game demonstration of clear Spurs superiority, he made it possible to at many times not double Duncan. That team would score a lot of points but would get brutalized on the boards against a team like San Antonio and Detroit, wouldn't be able to stop them, and would do well to extend either to six games.

Anthony

05-23-2007, 01:13 PM

my philisophy when it comes to my teams in MP leagues is starters score points, you don't get any points for the guys being on the bench. so i invest more on the guys who'll be getting the most playing time. with that i have to agree with Gary - they need one more big name to put them over the top. not a bunch of good enough but not great enough guys getting fat salaries on the bench to play 15 minutes a game. my view is every dollar you spend on a bench player is one less dollar you could have spent on someone who could have made more of an impact as a starter. you wouldn't not take KG or Gasol because you're worried about the 7th and 8th men on your depth chart not being up to snuff.

Logan

05-23-2007, 01:23 PM

If The Sports Guy flying back home is the reason we're not getting a column today, I'm gonna be pissed. Shades of his vacation after Manning won the SB.

RedKingGold

05-23-2007, 01:26 PM

Anthony

05-23-2007, 01:39 PM

And starting in left field for tonight's game...

we're talking about the playoffs, Suns, Spurs now charlie, try to keep up. :)

miami_fan

05-23-2007, 02:03 PM

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/basketball/ncaa/05/23/hibbert.green.ap/index.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Jeff Green is staying in the draft. Roy Hibbert is staying put.

The juniors who led Georgetown to the Final Four are going their separate ways. Green announced Wednesday that he will keep his name in the NBA draft, while Hibbert said he will withdraw his name and return for his senior season.

"Just sitting down with my family and coach, I feel like we came to a decision that I should stay in this draft, and it would be the best thing for me after the season that the team had and that I had," said Green, the Big East player of the year. "I'm in a good position to go pretty high in this draft."

By staying in the draft, Green is leaving behind a shot at winning a national championship and is forsaking his long-stated goal of playing four years at Georgetown. With Green and Hibbert, the Hoyas might have entered next season as the No. 1 ranked team.

Green was selected as most outstanding player of the NCAA East Regional as the Hoyas reached the Final Four for the first time in 22 years. The 6-foot-9 forward has a versatile team-oriented game that should serve him well in the pros.

Green led Georgetown in scoring (14.3 points) and was second in both rebounding (6.4) and assists (3.2). However, he sometimes lacks aggressiveness: He took only five shots in the Final Four loss to Ohio State, further evidence that he doesn't yet know when to stop being the team player and take over the game.

Hibbert also isn't a finished product, but he has come a long way since he was a clumsy freshman. He led the Hoyas in rebounds (6.9), averaged 12.9 points and blocked 90 shots this season. At 7-foot-2, he will eventually be a coveted possession in the NBA, where big, traditional post players are becoming harder to find.

"I said to myself, 'Do I really want to go in the draft and sit on the bench?"' Hibbert said. "My heart was here."

The pair submitted their names as early entry candidates last month and have spent their time since then discerning their draft value. If anything, they've learned that the draft is far from a predictable science: Some mock drafts had Green going in the top 10 but not Hibbert, some had it the other way around, while others had both among the first 10 selections.

The draft is June 28, and Green has until June 18 to withdraw his name. He said his decision is not "set in stone," but he also said he is about to start the process of selecting an agent. If he hires an agent, he will be ineligible to return.

Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Brian Swartz

05-23-2007, 02:06 PM

Interesting, since I think Hibbert will be the better NBA player. I expect to go pretty high next year.

Atocep

05-23-2007, 02:17 PM

Interesting, since I think Hibbert will be the better NBA player. I expect to go pretty high next year.

I strongly disagree. Green is a versatile, skilled offensive player that compares to Battier, although I think Green is better offensively while Battier is a better defender. Green isn't going to be a star, but he's going to be a very valuable player with a bit more upside than Battier.

As of right now, Hibbert is an excellent college center that would have trouble adapting to the pro game. His agility is Bryant Reeves horrible right now and his conditioning is still an issue even though he's dropped a ton of weight. I think he can develop into an average NBA center, but he still needs a lot work on his conditioning and footwork if thats going to happen. As a guy that struggles to get up and down the floor right now, I think he'd end up buried on someone's bench and never really developing at all.

Maple Leafs

05-23-2007, 02:21 PM

If The Sports Guy flying back home is the reason we're not getting a column today, I'm gonna be pissed. Shades of his vacation after Manning won the SB.
His column is up now.

Logan

05-23-2007, 02:24 PM

Read it, thanks.

I'm working with a guy right now that's originally from Boston. It's been a bad day for him.

DaddyTorgo

05-23-2007, 02:44 PM

His column is up now.

honestly...that's about 1/100th of what expected from him. seems pretty...deflated.

Arles

05-23-2007, 03:30 PM

OK I'll bite - what's the good argument that they win games 5 and 7? They got beat at home in game 1 and if it wasn't for a 12-1 run at the end of game 4 they lose that one too. They were ahead by as many as 16 during game 5, again at home and without Amare, and couldn't close it out.
Surprisingly, with a 6-man rotation and no low-post scoring threat, the Suns failed to hold on to a lead in the 4th quarter. Hard to imagine why? ;) If Nash, Marion and Bell hadn't played 47 minutes each and they had Amare's ability to get high % shots down the stretch, I'd say game 5 probably turns out a little different.

The Suns also have never won a best of seven playoff series when it was tied 2-2 so saying they would have won games 5 (with Amare and Diaw) and 7 isn't such a given.
And the Spurs have never won a title with Francisco Elson on the team - would that make you bet against them this season?

Nash has made comments during the playoffs about some people giving effort and others not and I've also read comments that Amare is a problem in the locker room because he thinks people give Nash too much credit for his play and that he should be looked at as the superstar on the team. Don't know if that's true or not but they sure looked alright without him for a good chunk of game 5.
If you Amare's the problem in Phoenix, you are barking up the wrong tree. He's got an ego, but so does every other superstar not located in San Antonio. I fail to see how moving Amare makes the Suns better.

I'm sure its possible that Phoenix wins games 5 and 7 - they're a good team - but I don't see this Spurs team losing game 7 to anyone.
Just like in 2006, right?

I remember the Pistons prior to winning the title - we had some phenomenal years with a great nucleus of Billups, Rip, Prince and Ben but it wasn't enough to get over the hump. We needed Sheed and I think the Suns, for as good as they are, still need somebody of the calibur of a Rasheed Wallace to add to that lineup.
Yeah, but you didn't trade Rip Hamilton to get him. The Suns have arguably the best nucleus in the league (from an age/talent standpoint) of Nash, Bell, Marion, Amare, Diaw and Barbosa. Saying that group isn't talented enough without yet another superstar is crazy. They need Amare to continue to develop mentally (he is still 24 and coming off serious knee surgery) and a couple reliable veterans that can come off the bench and hit shots, defend and rebound. Nowhere does that equate making massive talent trades.

Bench guys are great but in the end it comes down to your best 5 vs their best 5 and I think it would serve Phoenix well to add one more to their best 5.
I would put Steve Nash, Raja Bell, Marion, Amare and Barbosa up with any 5 players in the NBA on talent. Here's how they compare to SA:

Nash > Parker
Bell = Bowen
Marion > Finley
Amare < Duncan
Barbosa < Ginobli

That's 2 for Phoenix, 2 for SA and 1 tie. The problem is Phoenix doesn't have good role players with experience like Barry, Horry, Elson and Omberto on the bench to get minutes.They just need a better supporting cast at the 3-5 spots.

stevew

05-23-2007, 08:55 PM

Portland already has 2 pretty good big men in Randolph, and Aldridge. I'll be honest, they should probably take Durant. And I wouldn't be suprised if they do. Almost anyone else in the lottery, it wouldn't even be a question. Randolph's not that great at defense, but the Jazz have gotten pretty far with Boozer, i'd consider them to be pretty comparable players. Boozer's got a better head on his shoulders, and is a bit of a better rebounder.

As long as those heart problems from Aldridge aren't serious, I think he'll be a great player pretty quickly as well.

Gary Gorski

05-23-2007, 09:44 PM

Yeah, but you didn't trade Rip Hamilton to get him. The Suns have arguably the best nucleus in the league (from an age/talent standpoint) of Nash, Bell, Marion, Amare, Diaw and Barbosa. Saying that group isn't talented enough without yet another superstar is crazy. They need Amare to continue to develop mentally (he is still 24 and coming off serious knee surgery) and a couple reliable veterans that can come off the bench and hit shots, defend and rebound. Nowhere does that equate making massive talent trades.

I'm not suggesting you trade the Rip Hamilton of Phoenix to get another guy. I say they trade away anything but Nash, Marion and Amare to do it. Barbosa Bell and Diaw would be PERFECT guys to trade one away along with Kurt Thomas and maybe a late first round pick for a big time 4/5 that wants out of his current team. Their offensive stats are inflated because of the style of play of Phoenix and having a great PG in Nash. Its like the Broncos and RBs and a perfect chance to sell high on any one of those players. And have you seen the contracts of those guys? Those 3 combined next year will make close to $19 million (at least according to hoopshype.com) and Diaw and Barbosa are under contract through 2011/12.

Why do you want a "couple reliable veterans that can come off the bench and hit shots, defend and rebound" instead of one starter to stick in the lineup full time to do that? And who are these "reliable veterans" they're going to get? You mentioned that the only reason the Suns lose playoff series is because someone always is hurt but yet they want Grant Hill to be one of those "reliable veterans"? Hill has played fewer than 30 games in 4 of his 6 seasons with Orlando. And how are veteran bench guys like a Grant Hill going to keep up with the pace the kids on the Suns like to play at? I still say that's not the answer because if it was then Jalen Rose would have been playing. The Suns play too quick a tempo for guys like you mentioned earlier. Horry, McDyess, Hill...these guys can't play that kind of pace. In fact Kurt Thomas is that kind of player - a guy who's consistently averaged close to a double double in his career and he plays 18 MPG.

I said earlier the window is closing on a championship for the Suns and I stand by that. They can lose any cog in that wheel and still be ok EXCEPT for Nash. He makes that team go and every year that goes by he's going to slow down a little. You've got to get him one more borderline all-star starter to give him one good shot at a title. Trading Diaw, Barbosa or Bell would not be catastrophic and if it could get Nash another legitmate weapon for 30+ minutes a game I think you have to do it.