CraigSca
09-06-2007, 07:55 AM
I'm a big fan of "The Book" and the guys who put it together (tangotiger, MGL, Dolphin). For those who don't know, "The Book" is a very detailed, sabermetric view of baseball and (with full math) explain a lot about the game. It's kind of like Bill James, but with a double-shot of mathematics.
Anyway, I'm a big fan of tangotiger's blog (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/), and was surprised to find I missed this entry, because this stuff fascinates me. In this entry (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/true_talent_levels_for_sports_leagues/#comments), Tango explains the role of luck in the major sports, and from this, they determine how long the sports schedule should be in order to weed out the chaff from the truly deserving. Just to summarize, here's the role of luck, in order of major sport effected on a per-game basis:
1) Baseball
2) Hockey
3) Football
4) Basketball
Interestingly, here are the equivalent number of games played per sport to get a reasonable differentiation between teams (r = .5):
MLB Baseball: 69
NHL Hockey: 36
NBA Basketball: 14
NFL Football: 12
In summary, luck plays a huge role in football standings and therefore needs the number of playoff teams it currently allows, just in case a team worthy has been knocked down a few pegs due to luck. The other thing to notice is, from a pure talent differentiation standpoint, the NBA is completely out of whack from a length of season standpoint, as well as number of playoff teams.
Anyway, I thought you'd all find this interesting, especially when it comes to FOF MP leagues and "why isn't my team doing better?!" You might have to take luck into account :).
Anyway, I'm a big fan of tangotiger's blog (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/), and was surprised to find I missed this entry, because this stuff fascinates me. In this entry (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/true_talent_levels_for_sports_leagues/#comments), Tango explains the role of luck in the major sports, and from this, they determine how long the sports schedule should be in order to weed out the chaff from the truly deserving. Just to summarize, here's the role of luck, in order of major sport effected on a per-game basis:
1) Baseball
2) Hockey
3) Football
4) Basketball
Interestingly, here are the equivalent number of games played per sport to get a reasonable differentiation between teams (r = .5):
MLB Baseball: 69
NHL Hockey: 36
NBA Basketball: 14
NFL Football: 12
In summary, luck plays a huge role in football standings and therefore needs the number of playoff teams it currently allows, just in case a team worthy has been knocked down a few pegs due to luck. The other thing to notice is, from a pure talent differentiation standpoint, the NBA is completely out of whack from a length of season standpoint, as well as number of playoff teams.
Anyway, I thought you'd all find this interesting, especially when it comes to FOF MP leagues and "why isn't my team doing better?!" You might have to take luck into account :).