NFL Prediction Contest

[QuikSand]

THIS POST WAS A CONTEST WE RAN IN 2010.

SKIP TO PAGE 3, POST #128 TO SEE THOUGHTS ON A 2012 REVIVAL



Here’s the basic setup:

$20 to enter, covers the whole season
The core of the game is how many games will an NFL team win this year
The starting point for buying and selling is the number of games they won last year - 2009 Standings (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/regularseason/2009)
You “buy” teams that you think will do better than last year
You “sell” teams that you think will not do as well as last year
You can buy/sell the same team again, but it gets more expensive
Use up your budget, and the entry with the most total net wins… WINS

The specifics
You will be started off with a $20 budget to work with
Build your budget by “selling” shares of a team that you think will decline
When you “sell” a team, you get a dollar added to your budget for each game they won last year
If you want to sell the team again, you can… but you get a dollar less for the next sale (and so on)
Once you have a final budget to spend ($20 base plus yield from your sales) you can buy teams
When you “buy” a team, you spend a dollar from your budget for each game they won last year
If you want to buy the team again, you can… but you spend a dollar more for the next sale (and so on)

Your score at the end of the year will be the total of:
+1 point for each regular season win by the teams you bought (including multiples of the same team)
-1 point for each regular season win by the teams you sold (including multiples of the same team)
+1 point for every dollar you left unspent at the beginning of the season

An example:
I start with $20 to work with, and all I really know about are the NFC East teams (to keep things simple here)
I think the Cowboys are not as good as last year, so I sell them for $11.
I think about it more, and decide that I really think they stink, so I sell them again for $10, and again for $9.
I now have $20+11+10+9 = $50 to spend on the teams that I like.
I think the Giants will do much better this year, so I buy three shares for $8+9+10 = $27.
I think the Eagles will improve, and buy them for $11+12 = $23.
I don’t have any opinion on the Redskins for some reason, so I leave them out.

Final entry looks like this, in abbreviated format:
DAL -3
NYG +3
WAS +2
$0 balance

So, let’s say the season ends up this way:
DAL 10-6
NYG 12-4
PHI 9-7

Then, I end up losing 30 points for my selling DAL 3x, but I gain 36 points for having bought the Giants 3x, and another 18 points for buying PHI 2x. Total score = -30 + 36 + 18 = 24 points.

The Details:

If you want to play, here’s what you need to do:

-kindly post something here that you’re playing (but not your picks), it will help momentum for the contest, and I think this thing is basically the more the better

-send your entry as clearly stated as possible, in an email to my gmail address msanderson 313 at gmail dot com, telling me who you are (screen name is fine) and from what email address I should be expecting your PayPal transaction of $20

-send me $20 via paypal to the above address no later than Monday, September 6

-it is my intention to post all entries in a thread at FOFC sometime shortly after that deadline, for our collective amusement, to create some game accountability (I will likely get some entries from non-FOFC people, but I will post them here as well in advance of the season starting), and also for some public math-checking

-it is your responsibility to submit a legal entry and not overspend your budget, I will make reasonable efforts to accommodate problems, but if you enter and do not correct, your entry may be voided

Other general rules:

-I’m in charge, period. If you are not comfortable with that, or demand some sort of grievance appeals process, then sit it out.

-It’s PayPal, that’s the list. I am not interested in getting personal checks from far flung corners of the world and spending my free time managing them. If you don’t like or trust PayPal, sorry.

-I will create a prize structure based on the number of entries, but all entry fees will go back to the winner(s). If it ends up just being a handful of players, then it will likely be winner-take-all. If we get 20 or 30 players, then I will most likely set up something like 65%/25%/10%. If it matters to your strategy, assume a top-heavy distribution of the prize winning.

[kurtism]

I am past due to donate again to the Sanderson Institute of Baller Studies. Count me in.

[wade moore]

in.

[kingfc22]

Interesting. I might have to give this a go.

[QuikSand]

Bumping, with two "in" and a "might" so far. *shurg*

[panerd]

Count me in on this. Love playing around with over/unders (though this is a little different). About to own a lot of stock in St. Louis, may need to re-read these rules a few times though. :)

[molson]

In! - But ya, I need to make sure I get the rules also.

[albionmoonlight]

In

[QuikSand]

I'll use the Rams as an example, to help out. Thinking in the hypothetical first person here...

Seems like a fairly safe bet to buy a share of STL at $1. So, I'll do that for sure. As long as they win 1 game, I break even, and every game they win beyond the 1 is an extra point for me.

Now that I have bought my first share of STL, it's as if they had a "2" in their W-L record last year. I can still buy them again, but buying another share costs mr $2 from my budget. Now, rather than being the cheapest team out there, they cost as much as DET. Let's say I still like them, and buy another share for $2. As long as they win 2 games I break even on this second share, and every win past that is a net gain.

Okay, now if I want to buy STL again, it's $3. Same decision process, only it's now that they cost more than DET, and as much as TB. My call, whether I want to keep buying them at the increasing price, or whether I now think that another team represents a better value now.

Buying a team for $X is worth it if you believe that the team will win more than X games.

Selling a team for $X is worth it if you believe that the team will win fewer than X games.

That's the core concept here.

[albionmoonlight]

Bump.

Picks made and money sent.

I hope that more of you join up so that I can win more of your money.

And, really, if you think that you know a lot about the NFL, what better way to show it than a contest like this--a low cost affair that lets you pick and choose which teams you think will do well and which ones will do poorly?

[wade moore]

So, I think in spreadsheets, not formulas, common sense, etc..

I went to start doing this and put together a spreadsheet.

You can use it here:

Welcome to Google Docs (https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AkycEocqEbT5dDhxVnlyLS00YmgyRnVIRmg5SGFCUEE&hl=en&authkey=CLmsxYwO)

It's open to edit by the public, so, be careful on what you save here. You can pull it down to an .xls file or make a copy on your own google account if you want.

Anyway, how it works:

You should only modify fields that are GREY. The other columns have formulas and you'll screw things up if you modify them.

So, you are entering three things:

Buys
Sells
Projected Wins

So, if you go to the "sell" tab, you will put an X for each time you want to sell a team.

If you go to the "buy" tab, you will put an X for each time you want to buy a team.

Then the summary tab gives you your summary. Tells you how much cash you have, etc. You can then modify the "Projected Wins" column to figure out how many points you would have based on your projected wins.

If you have questions, let me know. This may be MORE confusing for some, but it helps me wrap my head around it.

[wade moore]

picks sent.

[QuikSand]

guess the setup here is a bit too clumsy to attract a dozen or two people like I had hoped, but I'll bump it for yuks.

Maybe a public "trial" here with chitchat on who picked whom (once it's all laid out) can spur this into a lasting event. *shurg*

[wade moore]

Yeah - there were a lot of directions to go with this. I'm skeptical on whether mine was "right", so I'm curious to see the thought process of others.

I know I mentioned it to one or two people and got a "that's too complicated" response - but really it's not that complicated if you really understand it.

[Suicane75]

I'm pretty sure i'm in on this. I just need a day or two make sure I don't make myself look stupid.

[albionmoonlight]

The short of it is if you think that a team will do better than last season, buy them. If you think that a team will do worse than last season, sell them.

The +/- stuff looks a lot harder than it actually is.

[albionmoonlight]

It might also help to ask why people who might have been interested didn't sign up. If you are reading this post, then you are someone who is at least interested enough to read this thread. Why didn't you sign up? Don't like gambling for real money? Rules were too convoluted? Just didn't have time? Not a member of PayPal?

I realize that people may not want to post here that they didn't get it or didn't want to send money, etc. But any insight we can get on why contests like this don't take off will help us all to make better versions of contests like this.

[Masked]

Not a member of PayPal?



Basically this

More accurately, I have no idea how to access my old account and don't want to set up a new one.

[Suicane75]

Money and Predictions sent. Come on folks, join in.

[kurtism]

Selections in and paid.

[QuikSand]

Based on traffic here and feedback from a few people I know personally, I'm guessing 9-12 entries here. If we're in that range, we'll probably give $40 to second place, and the rest to the winner, FYI.

[lynchjm24]

Basically this

More accurately, I have no idea how to access my old account and don't want to set up a new one.

Mine was paypal as well, but then I ended up having to set up an account to buy tickets on ebay, so now I'm probably in. Just need to sit down and think about it.

[QuikSand]

I have about 5-6 entries already received, and commitments for at least a couple more, plus my own sitting in draft form.

[albionmoonlight]

I am really curious to see how folks approached this.

[Maple Leafs]

Totally missed this until now. Any chance of an extension past today?

[lynchjm24]

Totally missed this until now. Any chance of an extension past today?

It turns out it takes a few days for the money to move from my bank to paypal - so let us know if you are ok with the payment coming later in the week.

[QuikSand]

Yes, I will take entries until tomorrow night.

[TRO]

Entry (donation) submitted.

Thanks Quik.

[panerd]

snet. Let me know if you didn't get the paypal or the picks e-mail.

[lynchjm24]

Entry sent.

[QuikSand]

Trying to get through these to post a summary here. May be sometime fairly late tonight before I get to it, but it looks like we have roughly ten entries.

[QuikSand]

Ok, I got entries in just about every format imaginable. Pasting some, some had to be parsed out a bit, but here's the raw data. Sorry in advance for any formatting messes.

- - -

wademoore

Sell:
San Diego x1
Minnesota x2
Arizona x1

Buy:

Washington x3
Detroit x2
St. Louis x2

$ left = a lot, i'll add it up whenever

- - -

dbjuppe

Sell:
ARZ 10,9
IND 14
SD 13
MIN 12
NO 13

Buy:
SF 8,9
Stl 1,2,3
NYJ 9,10
MIA 7,8
BAL 9
TEN 8
WAS 4,5,6
DET 2,3,4

- - -

Suicane75

*SELLS*
Sell Minnesota X3
$12, $11, $10= $33
$33 + $20= $53

Sell Pittsburgh X1
$9= $9
$9 + $53= $64

Sell Indianapolis X2
$14, $13= $27
$27 + $64= $91

Sell Philadelphia X1
$11= $11
$11 + $91= $102

Sell Seattle X1
$5= $5
$5 + $102= $107

Sell Cincinnati X1
$10= $10
$10 + $107= $117

Sell Chicago X1
$7= $7
$7 + $117= $124

Sell Arizona X1
$10= $10
$10 + $124= $134

Sell Buffalo X1
$6= $6
$6 + $134= $140


*BUYS*
Buy Washington X3
$4, $5, $6= $15
$140 - $15= $125

Buy NY Giants X2
$8, $9= $17
$125 - $17= $108

Buy Detroit X7,
$2, $3, $4, $5, $6, $7, $8= $35
$108 - $35= $73

Buy San Fransisco X1
$8= $8
$73 - $8= $65

Buy KC X2
$4, $5= $9
$65 - $9= $56

Buy Baltimore X2
$9, $10= $19
$56 - $19= $37

Buy St. Louis X3
$1, $2, $3= $6
$37 - $6= $31

Will leave $31 Unused.

- - -

kurtism

Sell:

Colts
Chargers
Vikings
Eagles
Cardinals*2

Buy:

Rams*4
Lions*3
Redskins*4
Chiefs*2
Raiders*3
Ravens
Seahawks
Dolphins

- - -

TRO

Sell:
IND x2
NO
SD x2
MIN
PHI
ARZ x2
CIN
DEN x2
CHI
BUF

Buy:
BAL x2
MIA
OAK
KC x3
WAS x2
TB
DET x2
STL x2

- - -

panerd
*
Indy Sell 3 $39
New Orleans Sell 2 $25
San Diego Sell 2 $25
Minnesota Sell 3 $33
Dallas Sell 1 $11
Green Bay Sell 1 $11
Philly Sell 3 $30
Arizona Sell 3 $27
Cinci Sell 2 $19
Houston Sell 1 $9
Pittsburgh Sell 1 $9
Net Sales $238
*
Baltimore Buy 1 -$9
NY Giants Buy 1 -$8
Chicago Buy 3 -$24
Miami Buy 1 -$7
Oakland Buy 2 -$11
Seattle Buy 2 -$11
KC Buy 2 -$9
Washington buy 4 -$22
Tampa Buy 3 -$12
Detroit Buy 3 -$9
St. Louis Buy 8 -$36
Net Purchases -$158
*
Cash on hand $100

- - -

lynchjm24
Sell Minnesota $12* - $32
Sell New Orleans $13 - $45
Sell Arizona $10 - $55
Sell Arizona $9 - $64
Sell Indianapolis $14 - $78
Sell Indianapolis $13 - $91
Sell San Diego $13 - $104
Sell San Diego $12 - $116
Sell San Diego $11 - $127
Sell Buffalo $6 - $133
Sell Pittsburgh $9 - $142
Sell NYG $8 - $150

Buy Washington $4 - $146
Buy Washington $5 - $141
Buy Detroit $2 - $139
Buy Detroit $3 - $136
Buy Detroit $4 - $132
Buy Tampa $3 - $129
Buy Tampa $4 - $125
Buy StL $1 -$124
Buy StL$2 - $122
Buy StL $3 -$119
Buy StL $4 - $115
Buy KC $4 - $111
Buy KC $5 - $106
Buy Oakland $5 - $101

Start with 101

- - - - -

QuikSand

Start 20

SELL
ARZ 10
SD 13
SD 12
IND 14
IND 13
BUF 6
JAX 7

95 to spend

BUY
STL 1
STL 2
STL 3
STL 4
DET 2
DET 3
DET 4
DET 5
OAK 5
OAK 6
WAS 4
WAS 5
NYG 8
TEN 8
SF 8
SF 9
BAL 9
NYJ 9

Spent 95

[QuikSand]

have one more offline friend who got me $ but i cant find an entry, so possibly one more pending

[albionmoonlight]

I don't know if that list is supposed to be complete, but I (think that I) emailed you this list on the 26th:

Sell:

BENGALS X2 = $19
CHARGERS X3 = $36
COWBOYS X2 = $21
VIKINGS X3 = $33

Buy:

PANTHERS X1 = $8
DOLPHINS X2 = $15
CHIEFS X3 = $15
LIONS X4 = $14
RAMS X4 = $10
BROWNS X1 = $5
BRONCOS X1 = $8
OAKLAND X1 = $5


Sells = $109 + $20 buy-in.
Buys = $80
$129 - $80 = $49 cash remaining

Eric/albionmoonlight

[wade moore]

Ok, I got entries in just about every format imaginable. Pasting some, some had to be parsed out a bit, but here's the raw data. Sorry in advance for any formatting messes.

- - -

wademoore

Sell:
San Diego x1
Minnesota x2
Arizona x1

Buy:

Washington x3
Detroit x2
St. Louis x2

$ left = a lot, i'll add it up whenever


Sorry - should be $43 remaining.

[QuikSand]

I don't know if that list is supposed to be complete, but I (think that I) emailed you this list on the 26th:

Sell:

BENGALS X2 = $19
CHARGERS X3 = $36
COWBOYS X2 = $21
VIKINGS X3 = $33

Buy:

PANTHERS X1 = $8
DOLPHINS X2 = $15
CHIEFS X3 = $15
LIONS X4 = $14
RAMS X4 = $10
BROWNS X1 = $5
BRONCOS X1 = $8
OAKLAND X1 = $5


Sells = $109 + $20 buy-in.
Buys = $80
$129 - $80 = $49 cash remaining

Eric/albionmoonlight

Confirmed that I received this, but failed tro dig back far enough in my email last night to append it. Apologies to albionmoonlight. This is in also.

[albionmoonlight]

So, talking strategy, my first question is what did people think about spending all of your cash v. leaving some in your pocket.

For me, I just had a stronger sense of teams that I felt would underperform than about teams that I felt would overperform. I didn't really have a plan to leave $49 in hand. I just could not find a place to put it that I felt comfortable with.

Anyone have a more general game-theory approach to that question?

[wade moore]

Trying to put this in a spreadsheet for quik - I've gone through the first three, and dbjuppe and Suicane both have errors...

No math-doin' fools ;).

[wade moore]

Ok.

I'll get this up in a summary sheet later, but I have dbjuppe at -$7 and Suicane at $29 (if you look at his math, you can see where he had "$9 + $53= $64", so that's the $2 difference there.

[panerd]

So, talking strategy, my first question is what did people think about spending all of your cash v. leaving some in your pocket.

For me, I just had a stronger sense of teams that I felt would underperform than about teams that I felt would overperform. I didn't really have a plan to leave $49 in hand. I just could not find a place to put it that I felt comfortable with.

Anyone have a more general game-theory approach to that question?

I went with Vegas over/unders and then tweeked a couple of teams like the Rams and Lions. I figure Vegas may not be spot on but the general collective betting public probably has a better idea of what might happen than I do. I may have gone too low on some of the elite teams (sold the Colts, Saints, etc) but it seemed like teams like the 1 win Rams have the most to gain if I loaded up on them and they actually pull out 5-6 wins. (Big if obviously :) )

Quiksand: You can just send the money to me if you want. :)

[wade moore]

Here's the link to the spreadsheet to show how I came up with this:

Welcome to Google Docs (https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AkycEocqEbT5dFVURTZPNTZzUzEwb0k2c2xmMlFyeUE&hl=en&authkey=CNOhtssF)

Player Total $ Score
wademoore $43 43
dbjuppe ($7) -7
Suicane75 $29 29
kurtism $0 0
TRO $99 99
panerd $100 100
lynchjm24 $101 101
Quiksand $0 0
albionmoonlight $49 49

[Suicane75]

I knew i'd mess something up. :blush:

[wade moore]

I knew i'd mess something up. :blush:

Yeah, yours doesn't seem like a big deal - dbjuppe's appears a bit more problematic.

[lynchjm24]

So, talking strategy, my first question is what did people think about spending all of your cash v. leaving some in your pocket.

For me, I just had a stronger sense of teams that I felt would underperform than about teams that I felt would overperform. I didn't really have a plan to leave $49 in hand. I just could not find a place to put it that I felt comfortable with.

Anyone have a more general game-theory approach to that question?

I found it easier to choose teams I thought would regress versus teams that would improve. The teams I bought just won so few games last year it would be hard to not win more.

I did not go in with a plan to keep $101... it just sort of happened because I didn't see a lot of value.

[QuikSand]

The dbjuppe entry error is mine - I translated his horrifying spreadsheet into the list of buys and sells, and missed an entry: SELL CHI 7

Thanks for checking, fellas.

[wade moore]

The dbjuppe entry error is mine - I translated his horrifying spreadsheet into the list of buys and sells, and missed an entry: SELL CHI 7

Thanks for checking, fellas.

Ah, okeedoke - I'll change that on the thing I have.

I guess the advantage to me playing around in excel is it will be VERY easy to calculate points at the end.

[QuikSand]

Have a thought on this, for wade or anyone who might want to help out. I may get to it myself at some point.

I think this would be more fun if we had some sort of "projections," and here's my best idea on that front. For each NFL team, take the current total of wins they have in the standings, and then project that they will play out their remaining games with a win% identical to that from last year.

So, for instance, the Titans were 8-8 last year, and sit at 2-1 right now. For that team, their "projected win total" would be equal to 2 (current wins) + [ 8/16 (last year's win ratio) * 13 (games remaining this year)] = 8.5

Essentially, by being 2-1 already, TEN has earned a half point increase above their record from last year, and by projecting them out to that figure, we could come up with a projected total points for each entry, based on performance to date this year.

Make sense? Anyone interested in chipping in?

[wade moore]

Have a thought on this, for wade or anyone who might want to help out. I may get to it myself at some point.

I think this would be more fun if we had some sort of "projections," and here's my best idea on that front. For each NFL team, take the current total of wins they have in the standings, and then project that they will play out their remaining games with a win% identical to that from last year.

So, for instance, the Titans were 8-8 last year, and sit at 2-1 right now. For that team, their "projected win total" would be equal to 2 (current wins) + [ 8/16 (last year's win ratio) * 13 (games remaining this year)] = 8.5

Essentially, by being 2-1 already, TEN has earned a half point increase above their record from last year, and by projecting them out to that figure, we could come up with a projected total points for each entry, based on performance to date this year.

Make sense? Anyone interested in chipping in?

I should be able to do this pretty easily. I can probably work on it during the games today.

[QuikSand]

sweet, thanks...i think it will add to the contest setup

[wade moore]

If anyone wants to spot-check me, that would be great, but here's what I got:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 210pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=280 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 83pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4059" width=111><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 79pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840" width=105><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 83pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=111 height=21>Player</TD><TD class=xl64 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Total $</TD><TD class=xl75 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 79pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=105>Predicted Score</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>wademoore</TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$43 </TD><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>10</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>lynchjm24</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$101 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>-1</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>TRO</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$99 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>-13</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>kurtism</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>-32</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>albionmoonlight</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$49 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>-32</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Quiksand</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>-46</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>dbjuppe</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>-48</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Suicane75</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$29 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>-58</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21>panerd</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$100 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>-80</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[QuikSand]

That smells funny to me, but without the component data in front of me I won't be able to do any checking for a while. I wouldn't expect the results to have varied all that much from 20, to be honest (at least the way I had envisioned the projections).

[wade moore]

Quik helped me find a mistake in my math (actually, bad copy-paste on a formula):
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 210pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=280 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 83pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4059" width=111><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 79pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840" width=105><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl75 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 83pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=111 height=21>Player</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Total $</TD><TD class=xl76 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 79pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=105>Predicted Score</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>TRO</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$99 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>33</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>lynchjm24</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$101 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>28</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>wademoore</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$43 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>24</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>kurtism</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>21</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>dbjuppe</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>17</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>albionmoonlight</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$49 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>17</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Quiksand</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>14</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>panerd</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$100 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>6</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21>Suicane75</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$29 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[QuikSand]

thanks, wade

[wade moore]

I know there's a game left this week, but here's where we stand. Looks like so far the "leave money on the table" strategy has been the most successful. May be something worth looking at down the road to make more incentive for making hard decisions. Maybe even requiring you to be at $0 when you're done.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 210pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=280 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 83pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4059" width=111><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 79pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840" width=105><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 83pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=111 height=20>Player</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Total $</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 79pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=105>Final Score</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>panerd</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$100 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>132</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>TRO</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$99 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>109</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>lynchjm24</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$101 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>108</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>albionmoonlight</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$49 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>73</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>wademoore</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$43 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>54</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Suicane75</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$29 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>48</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>kurtism</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>42</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Quiksand</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>33</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>dbjuppe</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>30</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[QuikSand]

Sorry, I still don't see how anyone can possibly be projecting to a final score of $132 (or anything close to that) at this point, with this projection method.

[wade moore]

Sorry, I still don't see how anyone can possibly be projecting to a final score of $132 (or anything close to that) at this point, with this projection method.

ugh, ok.

I didn't do any double checking, let me look into it. Wonder if I didn't save the changes we made before.

[wade moore]

This was an easy one.

I was using the wrong thing. "Final Score" is based on, well, the final score calculation and has no validity right now.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 210pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=280 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 83pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4059" width=111><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 79pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840" width=105><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl75 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 83pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=111 height=21>Player</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Total $</TD><TD class=xl76 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 79pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=105>Predicted Score</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>TRO</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$99 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>55</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>lynchjm24</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$101 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>49</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>panerd</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$100 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>45</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>kurtism</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>41</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>albionmoonlight</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$49 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>40</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>wademoore</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$43 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>36</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Quiksand</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>34</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>dbjuppe</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>33</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21>Suicane75</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$29 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>20</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

That pass the sniff test?

[QuikSand]

Certainly better, thanks.

[QuikSand]

Oh, and by the way... I'm not sure that this sample size will tell us anything, even at season's end. But inherent in this projection system is a presumption that things won't change much from last year... meaning anyone (like me) who made multiple purchases/sales of the same team is at an inherent disadvantage, during these early/intermediate phases.

I think it's fun to have a set of "standings" but that's an admitted bias of the system we're using.

[stevew]

I wish I would have played. Aren't there only a few scoring plays that can be calculated as of now? Selling Indy at 13, buying the Rams at 3.

[stevew]

Wouldn't it be better to sell based on losses and buy bases on wins(or vice versa). I may need to re-read the rules, but Indy sold at 14 is a much better bet than say buying the rams at 2/3/4/5 wins.

[QuikSand]

I wish I would have played. Aren't there only a few scoring plays that can be calculated as of now? Selling Indy at 13, buying the Rams at 3.

What we are doing above is taking results in hand, and then projecting that the rest of the season's games would play out with the same winning % as the team had last season. It's not perfect by any means, but it's a decent default for "what we know so far."

[QuikSand]

Wouldn't it be better to sell based on losses and buy bases on wins(or vice versa). I may need to re-read the rules, but Indy sold at 14 is a much better bet than say buying the rams at 2/3/4/5 wins.

Not sure I get your logic, exactly. SELL teams you think will do worse, BUY teams you think will do better. That's basically the setup.

If you sell 1X IND and gain $14 for doing so... you end up ahead if they win fewer than 14 games. You end up behind if they win more than 14.

If you buy 1X STL at 2, it's the reverse... you come out ahead if they exceed last year's win total of 2, and you would have lost had they been unable to get to 2 wins.

The escalating pricing is just a way to keep the game open after you have made obvious (to me) picks... sure,I'm buying STL at 2... but what about at 3...4..5..etc? We had most people deciding to buy STL, but the real variation came in how many times to do so.


I'm certainly open to thoughts about how to reformat the game itself for next year. The only thing I'm 100% sure if is that I need a simpler and clearer up front explanation.

[stevew]

I'm probably being illogical. Let's just say I sell the colts at 14 and 13. Then sold the saints at 14 and 13. And did nothing else. I'd have $74 if they each win only 12.


You do your whole well thought out series of buys. I'm guessing you don't make 74 dollars.


Agreed with Wade suggesting you need to spend all your money.

What I meant earlier is that if you buy the Rams, you're making the right move. I think if you sell Indy, you should be selling them based on losses. Meaning I bank 2 for selling Indy at 2 losses, etc. Instead of 14/13/12.

Or if you're going with the current system base the bets on the Vegas win/loss over unders.

[CU Tiger]

I'm probably being illogical. Let's just say I sell the colts at 14 and 13. Then sold the saints at 14 and 13. And did nothing else. I'd have $74 if they each win only 12.


You do your whole well thought out series of buys. I'm guessing you don't make 74 dollars.


Agreed with Wade suggesting you need to spend all your money.

What I meant earlier is that if you buy the Rams, you're making the right move. I think if you sell Indy, you should be selling them based on losses. Meaning I bank 2 for selling Indy at 2 losses, etc. Instead of 14/13/12.

Or if you're going with the current system base the bets on the Vegas win/loss over unders.

This was my concern and my whole reason I guess for not entering.
If I think STL will increase by 8 wins and buy x8 (a major move by any account) that costs me 2+3+4+5+6+7+8= 35...but if I think they Colts are only 3 games different then thats a wash 14+13+12=39...not nearly as big a move.

In retrospct every buy and sell should cost 1 point I think.
Or maybe I just dont understand all this yet...

[stevew]

You have 7 shares of STL so you'd make 56 if they win 8. But you would have had to sell stuff to make an extra 15 bucks.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Bummed that I missed this before the season, would have been fun to see how I did. Based on my predictions scores so far (and the 49ers' record), I'm guessing it would have been atrocious.

[QuikSand]

I'm probably being illogical. Let's just say I sell the colts at 14 and 13. Then sold the saints at 14 and 13. And did nothing else. I'd have $74 if they each win only 12.


You do your whole well thought out series of buys. I'm guessing you don't make 74 dollars.

Okay, let's say these are the only moves you made in the game:

SELL IND 14, 13
SELL NO 14, 13

So, you're right, you end up starting off with $54 in proceeds, that's what you'd have from selling the two teams twice... 14+13+14+13=54. Plus the $20 you started with is $74.

What you seem to be forgetting is that when you SELL a team against last year's win total, you are incurring a deduction of 1 point per actual win this year, per share.

So, in your example, if both teams go 12-4, you will have to give back 48 points from your total of 74. You're left with $26. That's a modest shade better than the $20 you stared with (makes sense, as you basically made a few choices that all worked out modestly positive), but let's not get carried away and declare this a brilliant strategy.

[QuikSand]

Mostly this is just reinforcing my impression that my presentation of the rules (which really are not that complicated) is the big problem here. I think it's pretty clear that I just missed the mark (badly) in trying to lay out how it works.

[stevew]

Okay, let's say these are the only moves you made in the game:

SELL IND 14, 13
SELL NO 14, 13

So, you're right, you end up starting off with $54 in proceeds, that's what you'd have from selling the two teams twice... 14+13+14+13=54. Plus the $20 you started with is $74.

What you seem to be forgetting is that when you SELL a team against last year's win total, you are incurring a deduction of 1 point per actual win this year, per share.

So, in your example, if both teams go 12-4, you will have to give back 48 points from your total of 74. You're left with $26. That's a modest shade better than the $20 you stared with (makes sense, as you basically made a few choices that all worked out modestly positive), but let's not get carried away and declare this a brilliant strategy.

ok, yeah, I obviously thought the rules were more complicated than they actually were. My bad.

[albionmoonlight]

Some thoughts to simplify rules:

Don't start out with $20. Since we are just being judged relative to each other, the $20 may as well be $0 or $200. May as well keep it simple and make it 0.

Allow people to start in the hole. Let's say that I start with 0 (see above). And my only move is to buy St. Louis. I would start the season with -$1. If St. Louis won 8 games, my final score would be $7.

Now, the part that seems to be giving everyone trouble--the multiple picks part . . . I am not sure how to make that more simple. Once I got it, it clicked. But I am not sure how to make it so that someone gets it.

[wade moore]

Now, the part that seems to be giving everyone trouble--the multiple picks part . . . I am not sure how to make that more simple. Once I got it, it clicked. But I am not sure how to make it so that someone gets it.

Maybe somehow use an actual entry this year to illustrate the flow?

[QuikSand]

Some thoughts to simplify rules:

Don't start out with $20. Since we are just being judged relative to each other, the $20 may as well be $0 or $200. May as well keep it simple and make it 0.

Yes, I totally agree with this. The $20 seed money is unnecessary, and is definitely gone. Either that, or we start with a much larger starting point.

I think one concept that is too esoteric for a contest like this is that of "selling short." I tried to explain what I meant by that, and to then walk through how it would work... but I need a better way to articulate it.



As for purchasing a team multiple times... I'd hate to let that go in the name of simplification, as I think it's one of the more clever parts of this setup. But I'm contemplating whether that element is just too much trouble to keep. Not sure.

[QuikSand]

Maybe somehow use an actual entry this year to illustrate the flow?

For anyone who read that far, I actually walked through an entire hypothetical entry in my setup explanation, one that had both SELL and BUY moves, not not too many. Perhaps using an actual example with actual NFL records would be more approachable, I suppose.

[albionmoonlight]

Maybe a chart that just gives people the numbers to use, even if they don't understand them.

If you want to buy a team X times, then you pay

X[number of wins last season] + Y

Then, have a chart saying

If X = 1, then Y=0
If X = 2, then Y =1
If X = 3, then Y = 3
If X = 4, then Y = 6
Etc.

So, if I want to buy a team with five wins last season 3 times, then I can just plug in 15 + 3 and see that it will cost me 18.

[lynchjm24]

I just looked at my picks and projected what I thought they would do going forward on a very conservative basis (i.e. I had San Diego going 9-7) and I came up with a projection of $89 for my entry.

[wade moore]

For anyone who read that far, I actually walked through an entire hypothetical entry in my setup explanation, one that had both SELL and BUY moves, not not too many. Perhaps using an actual example with actual NFL records would be more approachable, I suppose.

Yeah - that's what I mean.

I mean, I understood it (even if I didn't take a good strategy), so it's hard for me to figure out what would make it easier to understand.

[QuikSand]

wade, easy to do an update here?

[wade moore]

wade, easy to do an update here?
Sure, think I can do it now.

[wade moore]

Duh.

The excel sheet with these calculations is on my work machine. I'll try to do them tomorrow at work.

[albionmoonlight]

Bump?

[QuikSand]

work machine <<< sex machine

[wade moore]

Heh.

I was just thinking about this as I ate my lunch. I'll work on it now.

[wade moore]

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 210pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=280 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 83pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4059" width=111><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 79pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840" width=105><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl75 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 83pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=111 height=21>Player</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Total $</TD><TD class=xl76 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 79pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=105>Predicted Score</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>panerd</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$100 </TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>123</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>TRO</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$99 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>91</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>lynchjm24</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$101 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>84</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>albionmoonlight</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$49 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>74</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>kurtism</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>73</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Quiksand</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>57</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>dbjuppe</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>52</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Suicane75</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$29 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>51</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21>wademoore</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$43 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>48</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Sanity check?

[lynchjm24]

I was thinking about this game the other day, and I think it works better picking the teams against their Vegas over under. Otherwise it's a simple formula. If you work against the over/unders it's real handicapping.

[panerd]

Ooh, I forgot about this pool. That would be a nice win. Unfortunately I think all it will take is a few more wins from the teams I sold and I will move quickly down.

[lynchjm24]

I have me at

start 101
rams 4x6 = 125
lions 3x2 = 131
bucs 2x7 = 145
skins 2x5 = 155
chiefs 2x8 = 171
raiders 1x6 = 177
colts 2x6 = 165
saints 1x9 = 156
chargers 3x6 = 138
vikings 1x5 = 133
cards 2x3 = 127
steelers 1x9 = 118
giants 1x8 = 110
bills 1x1 = 109

[panerd]

I have me at

start 101
rams 4x6 = 125
lions 3x2 = 131
bucs 2x7 = 145
skins 2x5 = 155
chiefs 2x8 = 171
raiders 1x6 = 177
colts 2x6 = 165
saints 1x9 = 156
chargers 3x6 = 138
vikings 1x5 = 133
cards 2x3 = 127
steelers 1x9 = 118
giants 1x8 = 110
bills 1x1 = 109

I think Wade and Quiksand had a formula that predicted what would happen if the season's remaining 4 games played out like last year. You are basing your on a 12-game season.

[QuikSand]

I think it works better picking the teams against their Vegas over under. Otherwise it's a simple formula.

Not really sure that I follow. I guess I agree that a "regression to the mean" formula in general seems to work, but what simple formula determines exactly when you should have stopped buying the Rams or selling the Colts?

Not saying this system is perfect... but I am interested in the theory behind the game for future use.

[lynchjm24]

I think Wade and Quiksand had a formula that predicted what would happen if the season's remaining 4 games played out like last year. You are basing your on a 12-game season.

Yes, I remember, I just think 75% of the way thought the season it might not make sense to consider the Rams a 1-15 team.

[lynchjm24]

Not really sure that I follow. I guess I agree that a "regression to the mean" formula in general seems to work, but what simple formula determines exactly when you should have stopped buying the Rams or selling the Colts?

Not saying this system is perfect... but I am interested in the theory behind the game for future use.

If you just bought 3 shares of the 5 worst teams and sold 3 shares of the 5 best teams, most years you'd find yourself with a pretty good answer.

I think it would be much more interesting if you were looking at over/unders and the Rams were say 5 instead of 1.

You are right, in this format it's about how many shares to buy. In an over/under situation it's about which teams to buy.

[lynchjm24]

For ease I'll use 4 teams each way because there were a bunch of teams with 11 wins and I took the worst of the 4 win choices (WAS).

NO 13
Min 12
Indy 14
SD 13

52 x 3 = 156 sold

Stl 1
Det 2
Tampa 3
Was 4

10 x 3 = 30 bought

146 to start

6 + 2 + 8 + 5 won = 21 x 3 = 63 + 146 = 209

6 + 6 + 5 + 9 lost = 26 x 3 = 72

209-72 = 137 season date

I'd be awfully suprised if 137 season to date isn't a pretty big lead

[lynchjm24]

With the current format everyone would be forced to use the same strategy. It would just come down to who bought the magic number of shares of the 1-4 win teams.

[QuikSand]

I'm not completely sold yet, though I see your general point. I wonder whether this year is an unusually good one for that approach (IND, SD, MIN faltering, STL and TB excelling).

Maybe a floor/ceiling approach might make it better?

[panerd]

Hindsight is 20/20. Why didn't you stick with that strategy? Hope I am not coming across as a dick or anything but it's a contest to win money. If that was the clear play than you should play it and be in the lead.

[QuikSand]

Yes, I remember, I just think 75% of the way thought the season it might not make sense to consider the Rams a 1-15 team.

So you argue it's a better forecast to assume that each NFL team will lose each of its 4 remaining games? Okay, then.

[lynchjm24]

Hindsight is 20/20. Why didn't you stick with that strategy? Hope I am not coming across as a dick or anything but it's a contest to win money. If that was the clear play than you should play it and be in the lead.

Um, I pretty much did play that strategy, I just shouldn't have sold a share of Pittsburgh and the Giants.

[lynchjm24]

So you argue it's a better forecast to assume that each NFL team will lose each of its 4 remaining games? Okay, then.

How does my forecast assume that everyone will lose the rest of it's games? I figured out where I was today and didn't assume anything for the last four games.

I can guarantee that if you took the standings as of today, they will be much closer to the final standings then any projection that uses last year's records for the last 4 games.

If you took today's standings and called them a projection they wouldn't even be assuming that everyone would lose their last four games, they would assume that your +1s would cancel out your -1s.

[QuikSand]

How does my forecast assume that everyone will lose the rest of it's games? I figured out where I was today and didn't assume anything for the last four games.

When you "didn't assume anything for the last four games" you actually made a huge assumption. You assumed that no team will win any further games -- including all those high-dollar teams that you and most entries shorted as part of the strategy. Every time IND or SD or another frequently-picked "short" wins another game, it very meaningfully alters the standings.

I'm not trying to argue that the system I suggested and wade implemented is perfect (in my view, its imperfections are a trade-off for its simplicity) -- but when you basically argue that our proxy method of predicting final records is completely absurd, and that your "just look at where we are right now" is incontrovertibly better, I'm going to disagree with you. Nobody is getting paid for who has the most points in hand after week 13, the game is and always was about where the scores are when the season ends.

[QuikSand]

-I will create a prize structure based on the number of entries, but all entry fees will go back to the winner(s). If it ends up just being a handful of players, then it will likely be winner-take-all. If we get 20 or 30 players, then I will most likely set up something like 65%/25%/10%. If it matters to your strategy, assume a top-heavy distribution of the prize winning.

Sadly, it appears this is the last I said publicly about the payouts. As things are more shaped-up than I'd prefer, I apologize.

Consistent with this general statement, I propose that we have two payouts... $40 for 2nd place, and the rest ($160? $140?) for 1st place. I am disinterested here as I don't figure to be in the mix, but if there is open revolt among the participants I am open to being overruled.

[wade moore]

Sadly, it appears this is the last I said publicly about the payouts. As things are more shaped-up than I'd prefer, I apologize.

Consistent with this general statement, I propose that we have two payouts... $40 for 2nd place, and the rest ($160? $140?) for 1st place. I am disinterested here as I don't figure to be in the mix, but if there is open revolt among the participants I am open to being overruled.

Seems like a fair payout structure to me, and like you, I'm out of the mix.

[albionmoonlight]

I support that payout structure.

[panerd]

How about 100% for first. :)

No, I am cool with the $140/$60 payout. I think my points lead is going to start falling apart if New England and a couple of the other teams keep winning. I think your initial message was clear enough that it was going to be something along those lines. (3rd place doesn't make a lot of sense with only 7-8 guys)

[TRO]

Since I'm in the mix, I'll avoid any comments on the %'s.

I think Panerd is going to be the clear winner though. Some real strong bets on most of the surprise teams.

[panerd]

Since I'm in the mix, I'll avoid any comments on the %'s.

I think Panerd is going to be the clear winner though. Some real strong bets on most of the surprise teams.

I would say everything but the Rams was a wild guess. I figured with 1 win and the atroious NFC West they were a lock for a lot of buys.

This is gravy money, i had forgotten about this so if you guys want a different payout I would be cool with whatever.

[albionmoonlight]

I would say everything but the Rams was a wild guess. I figured with 1 win and the atroious NFC West they were a lock for a lot of buys.

This is gravy money, i had forgotten about this so if you guys want a different payout I would be cool with whatever.

Basically, $40 for second and the rest to the winner seems closest in spirit to what Q laid out, considering the number of entries. No need to over-think this, IMHO.

[lynchjm24]

When you "didn't assume anything for the last four games" you actually made a huge assumption. You assumed that no team will win any further games -- including all those high-dollar teams that you and most entries shorted as part of the strategy.

Looking at the 12 games standings and assuming they will be closer to the final standings then the projected standings above is not the same thing as assuming every team will lose every game the rest of the season. It's not even close to the same thing.

[panerd]

So how did this pan out anyways? I think I did pretty well with STL, Seattle, Tampa, and Chicago continuing to win but I don't know how much some of the top flight teams impacted the overall standings.

[Maple Leafs]

I missed the original deadline, but my entry is ready to now. Where do I submit it?

[QuikSand]

If we don't hear from the grid guru, I will tally things up myself and post results. But I am by nature a free rider, and always happy to defer to the more enthusiastic than myself.

[wade moore]

Home sick today, I should be able to do it tomorrow.

[QuikSand]

Thanks, wade!

[Suicane75]

I think I won.

[wade moore]

Ended up out sick for 3 days.

Here's what I come up with, I spot-checked and I think it's good:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 266pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=354 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 83pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4059" width=111><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 79pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840" width=105><COL style="WIDTH: 56pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2706" width=74><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl76 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 83pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=111 height=21>Player</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Total $</TD><TD class=xl77 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 79pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=105>Predicted Score</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 56pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=74>Final Score</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>panerd</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$100 </TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>165</TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>165</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>TRO</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$99 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>114</TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>114</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>lynchjm24</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$101 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>107</TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>107</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>albionmoonlight</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$49 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>99</TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>99</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>kurtism</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>95</TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>95</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Suicane75</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$29 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>89</TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>89</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Quiksand</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>76</TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>76</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>dbjuppe</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$0 </TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>66</TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>66</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21>wademoore</TD><TD class=xl75 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>$43 </TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>61</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right>61</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[wade moore]

Obviously predicted and final are the same now cause of how the formula was designed.

But, I'm thinking Quik won't be the biggest fan of the fact that leaving money on the table seemed to be the best strategy. Maybe next year you have to end with $0?

[panerd]

Right on! In case anyone was wondering I went with Vegas's over/unders and just bought and sold the amount that number differed from last year. I think I may have added a few for the Rams and subtracted a few for the Bengals due to my familiarity with both teams but otherwise that seems to be the winning strategy.

Thanks to Quik for running this and to Wade for doing all the spreadsheets. Any extra "found" money this time of year definitely comes in handy!

[albionmoonlight]

Props to the winners, and thanks to Q and Wade.

[wade moore]

panerd - fwiw - I would wait for Quik to double-check my math before buying any hookers or anything ;).

[QuikSand]

Okay... I'm looking to revive this idea for the coming season. Before officially doing so, I'm in search of:

-Revisions to the structure. Definitely plan to dump the initial stake of $100, we'll just start at $0 and you can buy/sell whatever you like. Am open to broader sweeps, but I remain pretty fond of this core idea.

-Some device/spreadsheet for people to use to submit their entries, to make results calculation simpler


Any thoughts on either front?

[lynchjm24]

I think I said it somewhere back in the thread, but instead of using last year's actual wins and losses as the baseline, I think it's a better challenge to use Vegas over/unders.

Instead of Carolina being a 1 win team, you use 4 or 5 (I saw 4.5 posted the one place I looked).

Otherwise it's just pick the worst records and fade the best records and the 'skill' is just hitting picking Carolina 5 times instead of 4 or 6.

Every entry will be almost identical - just use the same strategy that won last year. There is certainly no way to beat that strategy in the long run.

[TRO]

I would be more in favor of against the spread as well.

[Suicane75]

Brother, I just wanna gamble.

[TRO]

Brother, I just wanna gamble.

Over or Under on participants this year? Line is 9.5 - go!

[Suicane75]

Give me $100 on the over.

[albionmoonlight]

If we go with Vegas spreads, then we might consider a more fundamental reworking of the game. The whole "buy multiples" thing makes more sense when you are starting from some numbers that are going to be far off expected wins and losses.

It might be nice if this game were something different than just picking overs/unders. But, if people want to keep it simple, that might be the best way to do it.

Any ideas of how to add a twist (like multipliers or something) to traditional over/under picking that might add a bit more strategy?

[QuikSand]

I'm out of new ideas. I don't buy the notion that everyone's entry would end up being the same... I think there's a great deal of subtlety in deciding how many shares of CAR to buy, as the obvious example.

I have no real interest in just betting against the Vegas win total O/U, nor in running a game that does so. Even less so in betting against the spreads.

Will have something set up fairly soon, and I'm glad to have it be a "if you like it play, if not, don't" deal, which sounds inevitable anyway.

[wade moore]

Quik - I'd be more than willing to help with attempting to "automate" this with google spreadsheets if you need assistance.

[QuikSand]

FYI, I am thinking about running a similar contest again this year. I have a thought about how to re-do something along similar lines, in a way that would seem more approachable.

Here's my quick sketch of the idea:

-Get in something like 10-12 paying owners who could commit to a draft-style setup (meaning on the forum regularly enough to keep things moving)

-Start every team out with an OVER number and UNDER number, each set initially at the same number of wins they had last year

-General concept is that every Over/UNDER bet pays off in the number of regular season wins by which it prevails... if you bet MIAMI UNDER 6 and they win 3 games, you earn 3 points... if you bet MIAMI UNDER 6 and they win 8 games, you earn -2 points

-Hold a snake-style draft, where you are able to "draft" a wager at either OVER or UNDER the team's current line for that bet

-Once a bet has been placed, the NFL team's line in that direction moves forward by 0.5 wins, and that wager is now eligible to be drafted by any player (e.g. I draft MIAMI UNDER 6, now nobody else could own that exact bet... but now anyone who would still like to draft MIAMI UNDER may do so, but their line will be 5.5 wins, if you wanted to bet MIAMI OVER that remains at 6 but would move upward if it gets action)

-Draft continues, snake style, until all teams declare they are complete


Thoughts? Still too hard?

[wade moore]

FYI, I am thinking about running a similar contest again this year. I have a thought about how to re-do something along similar lines, in a way that would seem more approachable.

Here's my quick sketch of the idea:

-Get in something like 10-12 paying owners who could commit to a draft-style setup (meaning on the forum regularly enough to keep things moving)

-Start every team out with an OVER number and UNDER number, each set initially at the same number of wins they had last year

-General concept is that every Over/UNDER bet pays off in the number of regular season wins by which it prevails... if you bet MIAMI UNDER 6 and they win 3 games, you earn 3 points... if you bet MIAMI UNDER 6 and they win 8 games, you earn -2 points

-Hold a snake-style draft, where you are able to "draft" a wager at either OVER or UNDER the team's current line for that bet

-Once a bet has been placed, the NFL team's line in that direction moves forward by 0.5 wins, and that wager is now eligible to be drafted by any player (e.g. I draft MIAMI UNDER 6, now nobody else could own that exact bet... but now anyone who would still like to draft MIAMI UNDER may do so, but their line will be 5.5 wins, if you wanted to bet MIAMI OVER that remains at 6 but would move upward if it gets action)

-Draft continues, snake style, until all teams declare they are complete


Thoughts? Still too hard?

My initial reaction is I really like it. I think one aspect of the old games was that you didn't necessarily have a ton of "hard decisions". I think this will warrant that quite a bit more.

How many rounds were you thinking? With 10-12 people you could quickly get to where the later rounds are a losing venture, that would be my biggest concern.

[Vince, Pt. II]

From the sound of it, people can stop drafting whenever, so I don't know that length of draft matters.

[wade moore]

My initial reaction is I really like it. I think one aspect of the old games was that you didn't necessarily have a ton of "hard decisions". I think this will warrant that quite a bit more.

How many rounds were you thinking? With 10-12 people you could quickly get to where the later rounds are a losing venture, that would be my biggest concern.

From the sound of it, people can stop drafting whenever, so I don't know that length of draft matters.

So it does. And I get to officially be the first one that can't read directions.

[Chief Rum]

Ooh, I like that concept. And I would be down for participating if there are openings after last year's owners check in (or out).

[panerd]

Yeah count me in. I almost always find Quik's contests fun and interesting and am willing to give this one a try. Hopefully we can get a group together that can get this thing done quickly though. (Maybe a clock for picks where you lose your turn but can still make picks later to keep things moving along?)

[albionmoonlight]

Sounds fun.