FOF7 GroupThink Project

[Julio Riddols]

Do it, in my opinion.

[MalcPow]

Huard went #2? That's awesome.

I'm fine with that trade. I think WR Freddie Flynn will be there at our 2nd round pick as well. He's not spectacular but we'd probably have a solid set of weapons with Reilly, Shields, Flynn, our TEs, and the backfield depth we have.

[Julio Riddols]

Won't have a whole lot of downtime today, getting down with that weekend dad thing.

That said, I had a thing about return guys.. And this is purely anecdotal. I think guys with high return bars alone suck. Return bars plus special teams bars is what I look for. In the absence of return bars, I go strictly with special teams bars. Seems like special teams is a more important bar than the return bar.

[MalcPow]

The whole point was to leave AI out of this. It's just for practice.

And this was an unacknowledged chuckle that should be acknowledged.

[MalcPow]

Won't have a whole lot of downtime today, getting down with that weekend dad thing.

That said, I had a thing about return guys.. And this is purely anecdotal. I think guys with high return bars alone suck. Return bars plus special teams bars is what I look for. In the absence of return bars, I go strictly with special teams bars. Seems like special teams is a more important bar than the return bar.

For what it's worth, when you don't have a guy with return bars, the AI rec button puts really high special teams bar WR/CBs in the return spots. Might be something there.

[Julio Riddols]

Just look at the league leaders in MP leagues.

[MalcPow]

It would make very little sense for us, but TE Randy Negrelli is a guy to keep an eye on. He has outlier height/weight. He has a really high static blocking strength bar (a good tell). He has a solid big play bar for a TE. His combines are good. It's an Underrated interview.

He would be valued highly by me in a vacuum because he has good bars and then a number of those plusses mentioned above that give him some chance of being better than his bars.

He's probably a 2nd rounder.

Edit to add screenie for reference...

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/673/whYgP5.png

[QuikSand]

I doubt my target list will offer that much here, but:

Late round G Philip Brown is low dev, but would be an affinity and (maybe) has intriguing bars

QB Francisco Russell would be an affinity plus, a combine skipper with two blues, and looks like he could run around a bit (but not throw)...depth project here, right? (Gus Frerotte anyone?)

S Omar Feret - have a look. I see an affinity guy who can play special teams and likely slides neatly to play CB and possibly slot as a nickel/dime guy (some zone/in skills). I love these guys. If you agree, worth a flier.

You think ILB Lenny Truglio might fall to our second rounder? His board rating (Adj 5.0) seems to suggest he might - or does that alone put you off him? Does the possible void at play diagnosis mean he can't play inside?

[QuikSand]

Huard went #2? That's awesome.

I'm fine with that trade. I think WR Freddie Flynn will be there at our 2nd round pick as well. He's not spectacular but we'd probably have a solid set of weapons with Reilly, Shields, Flynn, our TEs, and the backfield depth we have.

Fire when ready, Cap'm.

[MalcPow]

Well, ok, we take Dustin Adachi at 1.1...

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/902/lUJkfu.png

And in our "official" draft run... Jacksonville trades the 1.2 to New Orleans and they promptly take... The Red Flag DE Wyatt Barlow. Ok. I guess that lends some credence to the thought that there can be some randomness from draft sim to draft sim. Either because of some timestamp RNG seeding or some sort of machine-specific seed.

The Giants still like our 134+1 deal for the 1.3. So we do it and draft Reilly.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/745/WTIRob.png

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Cu2gVjiE6Uw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Just roll with it people.

[MalcPow]

The rest of the board goes...

1. Cleveland - Adachi, Dustin, QB, Florida
2. New Orleans - Barlow, Wyatt, DE, Brigham Young
3. Cleveland - Reilly, Rex, WR, Mississippi State
4. Cincinnati - Branch, Emmett, QB, Southern California
5. Oakland - Kirkhughes, Eugene, RB, Maryland
6. Atlanta - Pascal, Alan, CB, Georgia Tech
7. St. Louis - Huard, Bobby, G, Nebraska - Omaha
8. Arizona - Codina, Chance, DT, Boston College
9. Carolina - Biggs, Oscar, DT, Kansas State
10. Buffalo - Joseph, Angel, WR, UCLA
11. New York - Harmon, Sawyer, T, Tennessee - Martin
12. San Diego - Andrews, Greg, RB, Arkansas - Pine Bluff
13. Arizona - Kotler, Tommy, OLB, Michigan
14. Minnesota - Leopold, Bert, WR, Missouri
15. Miami - Samuels, Lonnie, C, St. Cloud State
16. Tennessee - Lynch, Scott, C, Texas
17. Houston - McNeil, Wyatt, DT, Wofford
18. New Orleans - Carpenter, Skip, G, Wake Forest
19. Seattle - Horton, J.B., S, Mississippi
20. Washington - Bauer, Dixon, G, Rutgers
21. New England - Fike, Ted, RB, Miami, Florida
22. Chicago - Gilstorf, D.J., QB, Minnesota - Duluth
23. New Jersey - Donaldson, Walt, DT, Navy
24. Philadelphia - McKnight, Blaine, T, Missouri
25. Pittsburgh - Kolb, Anthony, TE, Virginia Tech
26. San Francisco - Negrelli, Randy, TE, Western Illinois
27. Dallas - O'Reilley, Shane, DT, Buffalo
28. Indianapolis - Turnbull, Heath, QB, Syracuse
29. Green Bay - McCrea, Kurt, T, Wisconsin
30. Baltimore - Baker, Chance, T, Michigan Tech
31. Denver - Hoffman, Landon, CB, Mississippi
32. San Francisco - Melvin, Bernie, WR, California
33. New Orleans - Bradley, Carter, OLB, Missouri
34. New York - Hochstein, Parker, DE, Kansas

Negrelli gets popped at 1.26. G Huard goes 7th. The two Centers go 15th and 16th.

The tough call for me near the top of the 2nd is DE Alexis Akbar and FL Freddie Flynn.

[MalcPow]

We go Freddie Flynn as a no combine interesting guy...

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/540/QZfEVQ.png

[Julio Riddols]

Flynn is my choice.

[MalcPow]

It's a long cruise until our next pick in the 5th.

35. Cleveland - Flynn, Freddie, WR, Washington
36. Atlanta - Krykhtine, Allen, FB, UCLA
37. Atlanta - Crump, B.J., RB, Texas A&M
38. Cincinnati - Podolyak, Adam, FB, Washington
39. Arizona - Douglas, Angel, CB, Northwestern
40. St. Louis - Gladden, Carter, ILB, Oregon
41. Buffalo - Akbar, Alexis, DE, West Virginia
42. Detroit - Reynolds, Fred, QB, Duke
43. Carolina - Truglio, Lenny, ILB, North Carolina State
44. Kansas City - Mason, Buddy, CB, Alabama - Birmingham
45. Minnesota - Pathon, Howard, DE, Virginia
46. Miami - Miles, Maxwell, G, Alabama
47. San Diego - Strickland, Adrian, DT, Hampton
48. Houston - Cowles, Rod, QB, Columbia
49. Tennessee - Foster, Darryl, T, Temple
50. Seattle - Woodson, Nicholas, OLB, Auburn
51. Washington - Mason, Monty, DE, Memphis
52. New Orleans - Garner, Robert, DT, Utah
53. New England - McDaniel, Leonardo, CB, Alabama
54. Chicago - Van Pelt, Mike, RB, Louisiana State
55. Philadelphia - Carr, Myron, DT, Ball State
56. New Jersey - Jones, Iker, WR, Northwestern
57. Pittsburgh - Strange, Howie, DT, Louisiana - Monroe
58. San Francisco - Hudson, Kennedy, FB, Missouri
59. Dallas - Clark, Norm, RB, Penn State
60. Indianapolis - Ogden, Hudson, WR, Missouri
61. Green Bay - Wright, Fred, RB, Memphis
62. Baltimore - Champagne, Lincoln, DE, Northwestern
63. Denver - Cote, Myron, OLB, Arkansas
64. Tampa Bay - Buvinov, Cooper, RB, Cincinnati
65. New York - Russell, Darrell, S, Northeastern
66. New York - Burns, Jaylen, C, Auburn
67. Jacksonville - Baxter, K.C., T, Hampton
68. Atlanta - Kruk, Elias, DE, Northwestern
69. Cincinnati - Kelley, Mickey, OLB, Washington
70. Atlanta - Gogan, Wesley, DT, Jackson State
71. St. Louis - Kinney, Bill, FB, Oregon
72. Arizona - Parisi, Nathaniel, RB, Michigan
73. Detroit - Borders, Carlton, CB, Washington
74. Carolina - Schweigert, Russell, T, Oklahoma
75. Seattle - Mikell, Carter, ILB, Michigan State
76. Atlanta - Merritt, Rickey, DT, Purdue
77. Miami - Krzys, Otis, T, Southern Methodist
78. New Orleans - Barkley, Donovan, CB, Arkansas
79. Kansas City - Yount, Seth, DT, Wisconsin
80. Tennessee - Peterson, Jaden, K, Kansas
81. Houston - Gibson, Josue, OLB, Southern Mississippi
82. Washington - Cassidy, Johnny, CB, Rutgers
83. Jacksonville - McDonald, Kenyon, CB, Davidson
84. Tampa Bay - Summers, Gael, TE, Utah State
85. New England - Bishop, Dan, G, Iowa
86. Chicago - Pettersson, Roderick, ILB, Idaho State
87. New Jersey - Richard, Jerald, WR, Texas Christian
88. Philadelphia - Humphries, Jameson, FB, Virginia Tech
89. Tampa Bay - Fredrickson, Harold, OLB, Pittsburgh
90. San Francisco - Ragsdale, Leon, RB, California
91. Dallas - Jasso, Earl, ILB, Virginia Military
92. Indianapolis - Hochstetler, Micah, T, Arkansas Tech
93. Green Bay - Fleming, Riddick, DT, South Carolina
94. New England - Titone, Isaiah, S, Kentucky
95. Denver - Morrell, Peter, S, Western Michigan
96. Tampa Bay - Ozols, Donovan, OLB, Arkansas
97. New York - Everett, Jayce, RB, Clemson
98. Jacksonville - Long, Billy, RB, Tennessee
99. New York - Rodriguez, Wally, G, Vanderbilt
100. Cincinnati - Blackburn, Reuben, S, San Jose State
101. New Orleans - Stargell, Connor, T, Arizona
102. Atlanta - Myers, Chad, C, Troy
103. Arizona - Carrington, Shannon, S, Miami, Florida
104. Miami - Fox, Jeremiah, TE, Stanford
105. Carolina - Sweeney, Trent, DE, Arizona State
106. San Diego - Kennedy, Dennis, P, Michigan State
107. Detroit - Bradley, Percy, OLB, Virginia
108. Miami - Woodson, Kenneth, DT, Texas
109. San Diego - Stargell, Raymond, T, Ohio
110. Atlanta - Marsh, Kelly, DE, Miami, Florida
111. Minnesota - Arnold, Rob, CB, Utah
112. Houston - Aberdeen, Ezra, CB, Arizona
113. Tennessee - Campbell, Roderick, OLB, Indiana State
114. Jacksonville - Petkovich, Malik, QB, Oklahoma State
115. San Francisco - Shepard, Bryant, S, Iowa
116. Philadelphia - Johnston, Christopher, P, Indiana
117. New England - Samson, Blaine, DT, Notre Dame
118. Detroit - Stephenson, Herb, FB, Kansas State
119. Philadelphia - McClelland, William, QB, Illinois
120. Dallas - Branch, Zack, CB, S. Connecticut St.
121. Tampa Bay - Grier, Lenny, DT, Florida
122. San Francisco - Coffey, Lionel, G, Auburn
123. Dallas - Dalman, Lewis, WR, Mississippi State
124. Indianapolis - Chenard, Iker, DT, Lane
125. Green Bay - Boyd, Andrew, DT, Virginia Tech
126. Baltimore - Hobart, Blaine, ILB, Memphis

[MalcPow]

We take LT Jimmy Ramsey in the 5th. He's going to be a wuss, there's no doubt about that. But he was a potential affinity. And his 7.58 Agil score was by far the best on the board, and a pretty darn good score generally. It looks like he'll have good endurance too. I don't know exactly how to value blocking strength (or pass rush strength for that matter), but Ramsey is going to be one of those guys with very little of it. Not a bad 5th I don't think.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/673/imXxIJ.png

He hits the roster at 11/44. And then I check the Personality tab and he's a 6 personality guy. I'm not so great at the affinity building apparently.

We take S Omar Feret in the 6th. He's an affinity who hits the roster with an 87 personality. And I agree with Quik, he probably has the right bars to make him a useful role guy.

And lacking much else of interest, we pop WR Sammie Arnold in the 7th as a return skills test case. It looks like he might have some PR and KR, but his ST is low. Something to follow.

We also had an extra 7th from my initial trade shenanigans I think. We take WR Deron Patell for having a 4.46 dash, a 16 bench (just plain rare at this point), and a nice BPR bar. He looks like a total zero for getting downfield. But maybe he makes our team as a 5th WR deep threat or something. Or an easy cut.

Dropbox - groupthk_140913_End15Draft.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/6hv73wqialycwuc/groupthk_140913_End15Draft.zip?dl=0)

[QuikSand]

I don't see a ton to get excited about in late FA, and since we have decided to focus on our own pickups, I will run this stage and get us... hmm, maybe all the way to the final cutdown?

[MalcPow]

I like it. That G you mentioned, Phil Brown, made it through. We are light on Guards I think.

[QuikSand]

I'm going to pick up my G and QB projects and hold them through the preseason, at least. Ought to have this step done fairly quickly, actually, no much to see here.

[aston217]

I don't value blocking strength. That tackle looks like a pretty darn promising prospect for Round 5.

[QuikSand]

tidbit...4 hours in the film room and Adachi is up +1 to 13 formations...

[QuikSand]

New file here: Dropbox - groupthk - start 2015 reg season.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/7yteyc5hcjlj7fr/groupthk%20-%20start%202015%20reg%20season.zip?dl=0)

I will run a CT report in a bit, I hope. Will add some notes on minor decisions as well.

[QuikSand]

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Lamont, Conrad Cleveland WLB -12
Adachi, Dustin Cleveland QB -11
Stevens, Vince Cleveland RB -10
Sinclair, Luke Cleveland RCB -9
McNeil, Blaine Cleveland FS -8
Russell, Francisco Cleveland QB -8
Rhodes, Gary Cleveland LCB -7
Cassell, Matthew Cleveland LDE -7
McGee, Lamont Cleveland SLB -7
Lyons, Tanner Cleveland TE -6


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
Ramsey, Jimmy Cleveland LT 13
Patell, Deron Cleveland SE 9
Shields, Josue Cleveland SE 8
Dubey, Harvey Cleveland C 6
Way, Kerry Cleveland LCB 4
Brown, Phillip Cleveland LG 4
Flynn, Freddie Cleveland FL 4
Hampton, Hayden Cleveland FB 4
Dole, Les Cleveland LDE 3
Kedwell, Zachary Cleveland K 2

[QuikSand]

Cleveland Maroons Player Report
(GTCLE2015c - GTCLE2015e)


Name Pos Team GTCLE2015c Current GTCLE2015c Future GTCLE2015d Current GTCLE2015d Future GTCLE2015e Current GTCLE2015e Future Overall Current Change Overall Future Change
Curtis, Scottie LS Cleveland 12 12 12 (0) 12 (0) 11 (-1) 11 (-1) -1 -1
Adachi, Dustin QB Cleveland 37 80 44 (7) 78 (-2) 41 (-3) 69 (-9) 4 -11
Bishop, LeVar QB Cleveland 42 42 42 (0) 42 (0) 42 (0) 42 (0) 0 0
Meador, Cornelius QB Cleveland 24 38 27 (3) 38 (0) 27 (0) 37 (-1) 3 -1
Russell, Francisco QB Cleveland 2 39 5 (3) 34 (-5) 5 (0) 31 (-3) 3 -8
Solorio, T.J. RB Cleveland 39 51 42 (3) 51 (0) 40 (-2) 47 (-4) 1 -4
Stevens, Vince RB Cleveland 37 37 37 (0) 37 (0) 27 (-10) 27 (-10) -10 -10
Hampton, Hayden FB Cleveland 55 69 61 (6) 69 (0) 60 (-1) 73 (4) 5 4
Lyons, Tanner TE Cleveland 9 13 10 (1) 13 (0) 6 (-4) 7 (-6) -3 -6
Preimsberg, Abel TE Cleveland 52 66 57 (5) 66 (0) 59 (2) 65 (-1) 7 -1
Sartori, Xavier TE Cleveland 67 67 67 (0) 67 (0) 67 (0) 67 (0) 0 0
Arnold, Sammie FL Cleveland 18 39 20 (2) 36 (-3) 25 (5) 35 (-1) 7 -4
Flynn, Freddie FL Cleveland 41 57 44 (3) 55 (-2) 46 (2) 61 (6) 5 4
Gaffney, Raymond FL Cleveland 47 47 47 (0) 47 (0) 47 (0) 47 (0) 0 0
Reilly, Rex FL Cleveland 41 67 44 (3) 66 (-1) 44 (0) 62 (-4) 3 -5
Bach, Greg SE Cleveland 42 42 42 (0) 42 (0) 42 (0) 42 (0) 0 0
Glover, Steve SE Cleveland 17 41 20 (3) 41 (0) 19 (-1) 37 (-4) 2 -4
Patell, Deron SE Cleveland 23 32 26 (3) 37 (5) 28 (2) 41 (4) 5 9
Shields, Josue SE Cleveland 37 50 41 (4) 50 (0) 42 (1) 58 (8) 5 8
Tyson, Griffin SE Cleveland 41 41 41 (0) 41 (0) 39 (-2) 39 (-2) -2 -2
Dubey, Harvey C Cleveland 32 34 34 (2) 34 (0) 40 (6) 40 (6) 8 6
Patterson, Victor C Cleveland 24 47 28 (4) 47 (0) 30 (2) 48 (1) 6 1
Rogers, Stan C Cleveland 34 48 38 (4) 48 (0) 37 (-1) 45 (-3) 3 -3
Brown, Phillip LG Cleveland 10 29 13 (3) 30 (1) 14 (1) 33 (3) 4 4
McKyer, Bryce LG Cleveland 32 32 32 (0) 32 (0) 28 (-4) 28 (-4) -4 -4
Maxwell, Britt RG Cleveland 41 41 41 (0) 41 (0) 41 (0) 41 (0) 0 0
Linquist, Peter LT Cleveland 55 77 61 (6) 77 (0) 64 (3) 77 (0) 9 0
Ramsey, Jimmy LT Cleveland 11 44 15 (4) 43 (-1) 18 (3) 57 (14) 7 13
Clinton, Bob RT Cleveland 40 55 44 (4) 55 (0) 45 (1) 54 (-1) 5 -1
Kedwell, Zachary K Cleveland 70 77 72 (2) 77 (0) 79 (7) 79 (2) 9 2
Loendorf, Greyson P Cleveland 69 74 71 (2) 74 (0) 70 (-1) 75 (1) 1 1
Cassell, Matthew LDE Cleveland 14 35 16 (2) 36 (1) 14 (-2) 28 (-8) 0 -7
Dole, Les LDE Cleveland 64 77 69 (5) 77 (0) 77 (8) 80 (3) 13 3
Lockett, Erik LDT Cleveland 47 47 47 (0) 47 (0) 44 (-3) 44 (-3) -3 -3
Shea, Wes LDT Cleveland 51 60 54 (3) 60 (0) 55 (1) 55 (-5) 4 -5
Park, Jack RDT Cleveland 51 58 55 (4) 55 (-3) 55 (0) 55 (0) 4 -3
Pena, Troy RDE Cleveland 28 28 28 (0) 28 (0) 25 (-3) 25 (-3) -3 -3
Roberson, Jordan RDE Cleveland 52 52 52 (0) 52 (0) 53 (1) 53 (1) 1 1
Flowers, Daryl SLB Cleveland















28 28 0 0
McGee, Lamont SLB Cleveland 14 14 14 (0) 14 (0) 7 (-7) 7 (-7) -7 -7
Hardy, Irv SILB Cleveland 16 34 20 (4) 34 (0) 22 (2) 35 (1) 6 1
Danielson, Russell MLB Cleveland 35 37 36 (1) 36 (-1) 37 (1) 37 (1) 2 0
Geiger, Derrick MLB Cleveland 41 41 41 (0) 41 (0) 41 (0) 41 (0) 0 0
Abdullah, Logan WLB Cleveland 35 41 39 (4) 41 (0) 41 (2) 42 (1) 6 1
Bensen, Alan WLB Cleveland 24 24 24 (0) 24 (0) 23 (-1) 23 (-1) -1 -1
Lamont, Conrad WLB Cleveland 14 30 16 (2) 29 (-1) 12 (-4) 18 (-11) -2 -12
Garrett, Josh LCB Cleveland 32 32 32 (0) 32 (0) 29 (-3) 29 (-3) -3 -3
Godfrey, Brantley LCB Cleveland 50 65 57 (7) 65 (0) 60 (3) 61 (-4) 10 -4
Rhodes, Gary LCB Cleveland 31 31 31 (0) 31 (0) 24 (-7) 24 (-7) -7 -7
Seignious, Blake LCB Cleveland 39 39 39 (0) 39 (0) 37 (-2) 37 (-2) -2 -2
Springer, Jackson LCB Cleveland 47 47 47 (0) 47 (0) 47 (0) 47 (0) 0 0
Way, Kerry LCB Cleveland 32 43 35 (3) 43 (0) 37 (2) 47 (4) 5 4
Christiansen, Kendall RCB Cleveland















11 27 0 0
Feret, Omar RCB Cleveland 12 34 13 (1) 30 (-4) 15 (2) 28 (-2) 3 -6
Sinclair, Luke RCB Cleveland 13 34 16 (3) 31 (-3) 17 (1) 25 (-6) 4 -9
Heimburger, Damian SS Cleveland 30 43 34 (4) 43 (0) 38 (4) 42 (-1) 8 -1
Carpenter, Shawn FS Cleveland 38 38 38 (0) 38 (0) 38 (0) 38 (0) 0 0
McNeil, Blaine FS Cleveland 38 63 44 (6) 63 (0) 45 (1) 55 (-8) 7 -8
Poole, Ross FS Cleveland 18 32 21 (3) 32 (0) 18 (-3) 27 (-5) 0 -5
Witt, Jason FS Cleveland 19 33 21 (2) 33 (0) 22 (1) 34 (1) 3 1

Hope this formatting is workable...

[QuikSand]

As usual, great job by MP and no help from yours truly. My rookie hunches all suck, save the G who MP seconded after the draft. The 5th round OT made the typical MP boom, and will be worth a look for me and others trying to learn more.

I pared down our backfield to get to 60 and sort out chemistry, and settled on Vice Stevens as our leader and RB2. He takes a nasty dump in preseason, but remains a good leader with a productive past. Note: WR Sammie Arnold switches to RB fairly well, becomes an affinity there, and keeps his return skills. Maybe a better fit than we'd find on the waiver wire, and is under a long term contract.

[MalcPow]

Eh, so Reilly kind of settled instead of popping. I am guessing that means that route running bar doesn't really get too far. I think that's still ok. I think he's still a better player than Flynn, even if our scouts seem to like them the same now.

Really good to see T Peter Linquist hold his pop from last year and stick at a 77 future. Conversely, as great as it was when S Blaine McNeil popped last year, he gave -8 back this year. Those are the sorts of development stories I hope we hone in on over time.

We'll definitely be rooting for the alternative kind of correction from Adachi after a -11 in his first preseason. It's still awesome if he's a 69 future QB. I just hope he wobbles back the other way instead of sliding downward again obviously.

[QuikSand]

Do we play the rookie T at guard this year?

[MalcPow]

Some of the LT Ramsey bet goes all the way back in some part to the popularity tell observations from (what, six, real time) years ago? The combine thresholds were a helpful tell, but different positions had a combine or two that weren't nearly as important. You could still have a popularity tell guy (which I think we always speculated was somehow related to the 0-9 scale, where 0 is a scrub and 9 is a superstar), that had a bad combine in certain spots. They definitely weren't superstars in that case, but maybe they could still be "average starters" or whatever the terminology in the game files is and trigger the popularity boost. For a lot of positions, the bench score was one of these "more flexible" scores (which I think is why we'd sometimes see good QBs with less than 10 bench, etc). For others, like WRs, TEs, and I think RBs, CBs, and Ss, the agility score might also not matter as much (but the correlated bar would be brutal). Those 7.6 agil WRs might still be good players, but they were going to be of a certain sort, with no ability to Get Downfield at all. (This was most of the logic behind our 7th round flyer who looks like a very limited guy, but had good combines in a couple spots.) Popularity went away as a tell, but these sorts of flawed but quality-ish player types seem to still be around. And you can sometimes spot them through their combines.

Ramsey's bench sucked, but he looked like he'd be able to do everything else. If you can make that work, he's probably an acceptable starter without any real chance at being a good or impact player.

I hope that first paragraph can be followed by more than five people or something. A lot of long-time semi-under-the-hood speak in there that I know will be confusing to new players. And I'd call most of it really strong suspicion, but it seems to make sense.

[aston217]

7.58 is pretty damn quality in a T. All his combines were quality, the bench and BS being irrelevant in my eyes, and he was super low developed. Neither his RB nor his PB bars were so high it made me skeptical of how they looked off the bat, though I suppose the theory goes if our scouts are great, sometimes it will look that high and be right.

One thing I'm keying in on more is that one high bar in endurance (seems like we talked about this for another player early on in the first year). *Given* all the signs suggesting a fairly strong result was possible, that makes me think, what if this player is masked in a way where his RB/PB bars pull up closer to the level of the END bar that we do see?

In the case of OL, I've never considered it even rare to see a player with very high skill bars but low block strength. You could argue on the other hand that it was somewhat rare to see, let's say, a bombs' out QB with garbage accuracy, or a megastud RB with no hole rec.

[MalcPow]

It's almost definitely far more productive to think about this in the way aston is describing here. He had certain good combines and the bars seemed to match the "shape" of those combines. If you're comfortable with valuing blocking strength at a very low level, this guy's a no brainer.

Probably no real need to put yourself in the weeds of some of the shit I was talking about to make better draft decisions there. :)

[QuikSand]

Okay...I will plan to run the cutdown stage, and get us through the season. I suspect I will use a BELCo library gameplan and a Rex defense in doing so.

[QuikSand]

Dropbox - groupthk end 2015.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/uprnjutsyx49rnc/groupthk%20end%202015.zip?dl=0)

http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/gt_cle_2015.jpg

Yuck.

[aston217]

Oh man, hope Adachi recovers from that fall (and this season). Remember when we were talking about

What are the pass distances? If this is a BELCO library from 2k7 it's possible that the 0-4 is being ignored, which it shouldn't be any longer, and we are expecting to throw deep too much with impunity, which is no longer quite the case.

Stands out that we are 32nd in the league in pass rush surrendered. And under 3 YPC on the year, are we doing 20-20-5-5-5-5-20-20? Another thing that should be avoided if so. Those outside runs are a little riskier. There's an article in one of the Help files about it.

[MalcPow]

Disaster, dang. So we traded next year's 1.5 pick to go get Reilly this year. I told you guys I wanted a Center...

Kind of cool that the Bowl was a matchup between 18-0 Dallas and 18-0 Denver.

[QuikSand]

....uneventful offseason, FA1:2 stage here:

Dropbox - groupthk 2016 start FA.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/bs1odaiormbeojc/groupthk%202016%20start%20FA.zip?dl=0)

We will need to decide how we want to proceed... my guess is this OL is murdering us.

[QuikSand]

Really tempting to run out and sign a top tier LB and G... but I feel like we don't really want to do that here. I'll do a low-impact FA stage and get us to the draft for a handoff.

[QuikSand]

So, I do a few re-signings, a little chem work, sign one fill-in ST guy to replace two walkaways, but do little else. Resist the urge to solve serious roster problems via free agency.

Here's the top of the draft...not quite to our pick:

1. New Jersey - Barckert, Billy, DT, Buffalo
2. Houston - Crowley, Gus, DE, Miami, Florida
3. Seattle - Wiggins, Gabriel, QB, Cincinnati
4. Oakland - Sieber, Lamar, WR, Michigan State
5. New York - Gonzalez, Maurice, QB, Nebraska
6. Carolina - Dzarnoski, Joshua, OLB, Eastern Kentucky
7. Indianapolis - Taylor, Collin, RB, Kansas State
8. San Diego - Beyer, Karl, T, Florida
9. Cincinnati - Kiser, Bob, WR, Kansas
10. Green Bay - Sanders, Scottie, DT, Tennessee
11. Tennessee - Durden, Glen, CB, Texas Tech
12. Atlanta - Brown, Deron, WR, Alabama
13. Detroit - Hill, Antonio, CB, Houston
14. Kansas City - Offerman, Chris, DT, Stanford
15. Seattle - Benson, Todd, T, Washington State
16. Buffalo - Lehmann, Reuben, RB, North Carolina
17. Miami - Worthy, Ayden, RB, Notre Dame
18. Washington - Sanford, Parker, T, Yale
19. Philadelphia - O'Donnell, Edwin, RB, Clemson
20. San Francisco - Lash, Wyatt, DT, Mississippi State
21. Houston - Whiting, Conrad, CB, Stanford
22. Minnesota - Hume, Marlon, CB, Ohio
23. Jacksonville - Fountain, Brock, WR, Auburn
24. Arizona - Morton, Brock, DE, Louisville
25. New Orleans - Clayton, Cornell, TE, Miami, Florida
26. Baltimore - Anglin, George, OLB, Western Michigan
27. New England - Mayhew, Tanner, G, Arizona

At 27, the first G goes off the board - there are three I like, including one guy left who looks excellent, and another who looks very good plus an affinity match. Two OT top the overall board, so OL is looking promising.

I though it very unlikely we would trade way way up...but given our needs, this seems like a fair place to start the debate.

[Julio Riddols]

Weird that Adachi dropped like that. Will he pop back up?

[Julio Riddols]

Or are we going to end up calling him 'Bustin'?

[MalcPow]

This is the latest file:

Dropbox - groupthk - 2016 draft underway.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/r138o9725ggmzw2/groupthk%20-%202016%20draft%20underway.zip?dl=0)

[QuikSand]

Oh dear, thanks.

[Julio Riddols]

So are we going to get an offensive line this year?

[Julio Riddols]

G - Weadock, Cales, Wyant - I'd be hoping we can get one of the first two and Wyant in round 3.

Wonder if T McGarrity could play C. Maybe G Caiden Floyd?

LB Brandon Ehlert - Is he a MLB? I think he could be. Will he be there in round 4 or 5?

No manlier name than OLB Butch Steel. Maybe he also makes a decent later round LB.

FS Norbert Zabriskie as a CB?

FS Lonnie Mathews

DE Corey Lyons

The above are guys I like.

[Julio Riddols]

I think it is good the team is struggling though, shows that things aren't just cut and dried like they were with 2007.

Looks like our QB is going to be fine. We're deep at WR/TE.

I like the D-line more than any other particular part of our defense.

I think we might be better served by letting Rex cover the O until it starts showing promise, unless Ben has a custom GP he thinks would work here.

[QuikSand]

FWIW, if you haven't played a true "empty cupboard" career (or not in a while) let me offer - this early struggle is totally normal. Almost no matter what talent you have, with zero cohesion and tons of young players, it's very hard to stay competitive. I'm not that disappointed, and the rise (when it comes) can be fairly abrupt, this doesn't have to be a 5 year plan from here.

[QuikSand]

And FWIW, in serious leagues I have fielded defensive secondaries (with some regularity) that don't have any more apparent talent than this one. Usually I pair them up with a fierce pass rush, but overall I don't feel like this unit is "the problem." I'm fine with value additions, but it would take a major play for me to use a Rd 1/2 pick soon on a DB.

We obviously need to improve on the interior OL, at LB, and probably at RB. That's pretty much my order of priority.

A move to a 4-3 front might be in order unless we jackpot the LB position.

[QuikSand]

So, it seems like we really need a roster filler or two at LB. Right now, we have OLB Abdullah who is playing well as a rushbacker, but likely could start at SLB also. Geiger is a starter partially due to lack of alternatives, plus he's a ST standout and an affinity guy - so he stays. Past that, the only guy I value is 2nd year guys Hardy, but he's clearly nothing special (the sort I like at MLB2 or ILB3 who is an affinity plus and cheap to re-sign). LB Flowers has been starting at SLB, but I'd like to do better there, so he sits unsigned.

Even if we move to a 4-3, we still need a guy or two. I'd love to land another affinity match who can play special teams, but I'd settle for a one-skill guy we could slot at run-stopping WILB or even WLB in a 4-3 front, or alternatively pick up a coverage guy to use at SLB.

Some possible value draft targets:

OLB Farrens (Adj 5.3) interviewed as VU, and I think has a nice mix of combines and bars...but he's the #2 OLB remaining, and I wouldn't pass up a star OL to take him. If he falls to our 3rd somehow, I'd be interested.

Top remaining ILB Griffin Hicks is the template big-combine, small-bar player, who'd also be an affinity. Similar to the guy we talked about in draft #1 a while back. If he slides...???

ILB Mario Browning grades as VU, has a max affinity, and his 42 PSpec suggests some coverage skill. No ST, though. Would really like him in round 6/7 if there aren't compelling alternatives.

I also like OLB Ehlert, big PRS bar and lift, no idea what he becomes though.

[Julio Riddols]

FWIW, if you haven't played a true "empty cupboard" career (or not in a while) let me offer - this early struggle is totally normal. Almost no matter what talent you have, with zero cohesion and tons of young players, it's very hard to stay competitive. I'm not that disappointed, and the rise (when it comes) can be fairly abrupt, this doesn't have to be a 5 year plan from here.

Last time I played a true empty cupboard it was on FOF 2007, and my team was winning within 2 seasons with no FA signings allowed except for UDFAs.

I'm not put off by the struggle at all though, I like that we were basically dead last in every category last season. I think it shows that this version of the game is simply that much more challenging than the last version. Typically, with the team we were able to assemble last season with the FA additions and all, I would have expected 7-9 or 8-8 in 2007, followed by a slow rise into playoff contention and then dominance.

[MalcPow]

I am taking a look at things and will be ready to integrate these thoughts and get us through the draft at some point soon.

[MalcPow]

Ok... so I saw multiple guys I liked where we were in the file start. I felt like the Guards would be good picks. RB Juan Elliot was another guy I looked at as being pretty darn good value for our 2nd. The guy I really wanted though, who was setting off some serious (positive) alarm bells, was RB Oliver Fredrickson.

Here he is in the draft pool:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/907/ghVBu9.png

10'10" is a near max BJump for an RB (11' is max) and a 34 PosScr is a very high number (max is technically 40, but it's really rare to see a mid 30s score in an actual class). And BJump for an RB is correlated to Endurance, one of the most important attributes for the position in my opinion. The fact that he has those attributes and doesn't appear to be one of the "across the board super combines" guys we have been talking about with suspicion is a good thing. He also already has pretty good bars. He's a 21 yr old draftee.

With that many interesting guys still in the mix, I didn't think we needed to trade up. And I think we got lucky...

28. Chicago - Gabay, Otis, QB, San Diego State
29. St. Louis - Weadock, Jeffrey, G, North Carolina State
30. Pittsburgh - Greene, Mason, DT, Penn State
31. Denver - Gomez, Quentin, T, Wyoming
32. Houston - Syron, Reuben, TE, Syracuse
33. Dallas - Money, Bob, S, Temple
34. Seattle - Cales, Harvey, G, West Virginia
35. Oakland - Riley, Courtney, S, Texas Tech

The Guards come off the board. (I promise we will draft some Guards.) But Fredrickson makes it to us.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/909/O0Gi1M.png

Hitting the roster at 43/60 seems like a good sign to me. Our 25% developed rookie is the most talented current rating RB on the roster? I think we got a good one.

[MalcPow]

And just looking at the two screenshots... is it me or did Fredrickson's Endurance bar jump pretty significantly just in the move to the roster?

[MalcPow]

36. Cleveland - Fredrickson, Oliver, RB, Southern California
37. Houston - Barrett, Deron, RB, Purdue
38. Carolina - LaMontagne, Burt, TE, Colorado State
39. San Diego - Farrens, Avery, OLB, Tennessee State
40. Cincinnati - Flynn, Vincent, DE, Wake Forest
41. Green Bay - Castillo, Jeff, DE, Auburn
42. Indianapolis - Knight, Josue, DT, Utah
43. Tennessee - Sawyer, Diego, WR, Florida State
44. Detroit - Hasselbach, Oscar, WR, Arizona
45. Kansas City - Delgado, Terrance, T, Northwestern
46. Seattle - Jennings, Bernard, CB, Texas Christian
47. Atlanta - Gustafson, Kai, CB, Dayton
48. Miami - Hicks, Griffin, ILB, Miami, Florida
49. Washington - Andrews, Santiago, DT, Temple
50. Philadelphia - Westbrook, Francisco, DT, Michigan
51. San Francisco - Kinney, Brayden, CB, Houston
52. Seattle - Elliott, Juan, RB, Nicholls State
53. Minnesota - Banks, Lionel, TE, Kentucky
54. Tampa Bay - Gold, Mateo, DT, Navy
55. Arizona - Butler, Damian, DT, Southern California
56. Jacksonville - Bridges, Jaxon, T, Georgia Tech
57. Jacksonville - Hammer, Iker, CB, Purdue
58. Baltimore - Danforth, Scottie, CB, Houston
59. Chicago - Lissvall, Courtney, T, Michigan State
60. New England - Dunlap, Kirk, S, Rutgers
61. St. Louis - Black, Miguel, OLB, California
62. Pittsburgh - Mason, Miles, DE, Purdue
63. Denver - Brost, Carl, RB, Vanderbilt
64. Dallas - Legette, Jaden, CB, Duke
65. Kansas City - Downs, Orlando, ILB, N. Carolina Central
66. Oakland - Mathews, Lonnie, S, Minnesota

Guard Bradley Wyant is still on the board, as Julio contemplated he might be, and he's one of the "lower bench" guys we've been talking about. I really don't see a better fit and he's the highest Guard on the board. So we pop him.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/633/yieGoU.png

Hitting the roster at 8/53 reminds us he's got a ways to go, but nothing so far to think we don't have an ok player.

[QuikSand]

In MP we trust.

[MalcPow]

67. Cleveland - Wyant, Bradley, G, Oregon State
68. Tampa Bay - Warren, Josue, G, Georgia Tech
69. Seattle - Emerson, Eric, OLB, Purdue
70. Carolina - Collins, Jude, S, Illinois State
71. Cincinnati - Poston, Henry, DE, Washington State
72. Green Bay - Brocklebank, Casey, DE, Georgia
73. Indianapolis - Barnes, Tom, DE, Southern Mississippi
74. Houston - Sauter, Howie, OLB, Clemson
75. Tennessee - Barreras, Jerone, WR, South Carolina
76. Kansas City - Roose, Edgar, S, Tulsa
77. Seattle - Kovacs, Josiah, DT, Idaho State
78. Atlanta - Stephens, Lester, WR, San Jose State
79. Detroit - Dunn, Lewis, WR, Georgia Southern
80. Washington - Murray, Leonard, DT, Mississippi State
81. Philadelphia - Hoover, Maddox, CB, Holy Cross
82. San Francisco - Everett, Donnell, ILB, Pittsburgh
83. Buffalo - Musgrove, Dean, DT, Navy
84. San Francisco - Dawkins, Kirk, T, Northwestern
85. Houston - Freysinger, Garrett, C, Arizona
86. Minnesota - Wormeck, Bryce, RB, Michigan State
87. Jacksonville - Parrillo, Nicholas, WR, Wake Forest
88. Arizona - Mesa, Marty, CB, Boston College
89. San Diego - Largent, Carson, WR, SW Oklahoma St.
90. Baltimore - Flynn, Mercury, S, Pittsburgh
91. New England - Marsh, Jason, TE, Tennessee
92. Chicago - Holliday, Hudson, OLB, Jackson State
93. St. Louis - Joscelyn, Avery, OLB, Tennessee State
94. Pittsburgh - Clancy, Otis, RB, Southern California
95. Denver - Hairston, Sawyer, K, Virginia
96. Dallas - Douglas, Eric, T, Texas Christian
97. Kansas City - Clemons, Jaxon, WR, Vanderbilt

I'm not entirely sure what we get here in the 4th, but I tried to go need again and get an LB in a class that looked a little weak for finding help there at this point.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/631/5BBIkD.png

[aston217]

Awww yeah, that's my type of guard.

LB looks extremely promising too as a 3-4 pass rusher.

[MalcPow]

A little uninspired for our last three, honestly.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/746/J2ZP0n.png

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/901/wLnwMH.png

And then our 7th rounder is more G depth. I think I blew that 6th on McCall. I had it in my head we needed interior OL. We really didn't need another passable C though. DE Hodges is a good no combine pick who should be able to pass rush. Solid value there.

I feel really good about the RB. I'm not sure we'll look back at any of these other guys with really fond memories.

[MalcPow]

File: Dropbox - groupthk_140914_EndDraft2016.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/44o3xk1vnl53tii/groupthk_140914_EndDraft2016.zip?dl=0)

[aston217]

The Round 5 looks promising too. NC, high PRT bar, no complaints at all. He could be something.

Yeah the 6th round, looks nothing special. The combine scores are probably okay enough, but his bars are low. Of course, *somebody* never got around to finishing his combine benchmarks for centers....;)

[QuikSand]

Ratings movers in training camp only:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Garrison, Jaiden Cleveland LDE -10
Hampton, Hayden Cleveland FB -4
Wyant, Bradley Cleveland LG -4
Browning, Mario Cleveland SLB -2
Wilson, Grant Cleveland FS -2
Adachi, Quentin Cleveland WILB -1
Linquist, Peter Cleveland LT -1
Seignious, Blake Cleveland LCB 0
Godfrey, Brantley Cleveland LCB 0
Rhodes, Gary Cleveland LCB 0


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
Coyle, Spencer Cleveland LCB 7
Fredrickson, Oliver Cleveland RB 5
Ellard, Freddie Cleveland LG 5
Hodges, Kaiden Cleveland RDE 3
Giles, Roderick Cleveland RB 2
Rosales, Mitchell Cleveland RG 2
McFall, Luca Cleveland C 2
Way, Kerry Cleveland RCB 1
Clinton, Bob Cleveland RT 1
Solorio, T.J. Cleveland RB 0

[QuikSand]

Post-draft through preseason week 3:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Garrison, Jaiden Cleveland LDE -16
Stevens, Vince Cleveland RB -9
Carpenter, Shawn Cleveland FS -8
Godfrey, Brantley Cleveland LCB -7
Rhodes, Gary Cleveland LCB -7
Ramsey, Jimmy Cleveland LT -7
Kedwell, Zachary Cleveland K -7
Blair, Eugene Cleveland TE -6
Bensen, Alan Cleveland WLB -6
Meador, Cornelius Cleveland QB -6


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
McFall, Luca Cleveland C 15
Fredrickson, Oliver Cleveland RB 13
Rosales, Mitchell Cleveland RG 8
Adachi, Dustin Cleveland QB 6
Giles, Roderick Cleveland RB 5
McNeil, Blaine Cleveland SS 5
Loendorf, Greyson Cleveland P 3
Way, Kerry Cleveland RCB 2
Ellard, Freddie Cleveland LG 2
Hodges, Kaiden Cleveland RDE 2

[QuikSand]

..anyone want me to stop for debate here?

[MalcPow]

My only thoughts would be to think about some of the points Aston brought up about the Belco gameplans from 2k7 if that's what we're using. Other than that, fire away.

[QuikSand]

Dropbox - groupthk 2017 start reg season.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/5bhkmgpegzllvkw/groupthk%20%202017%20start%20reg%20season.zip?dl=0)

[QuikSand]

Basically, at this point:

-2 more cuts to make
-no clue what to do at LB
-new happier backfield

Really nice camp for Team MalcPow.

[QuikSand]

The gameplan fro last year was okay in both run direction and pass distance (at least not overlooking shorter stuff). I'm taking that element out of play, and putting the gameplans on Rex for the season. We're running a 3-4, but past that, I have no clue.

[MalcPow]

Got it, we were just that bad then.

[QuikSand]

3-1 start, just sayin'

[MalcPow]

I like the idea of playing Park at NT, at least in normal situations. It might even make sense to get Shea in the DE depth chart in certain situations. I need to get us an LB in our top couple of picks next year... that much seems clear.

And nice to see Dustin Adachi come back up.

[MalcPow]

3-1 start, just sayin'

Attababy

[QuikSand]

I like the idea of playing Park at NT, at least in normal situations. It might even make sense to get Shea in the DE depth chart in certain situations. I need to get us an LB in our top couple of picks next year... that much seems clear.

And nice to see Dustin Adachi come back up.

we're together on this, I made Shea the super-sub at DE/DT

[MalcPow]

Yeah we just can't have the Run D void in there with the LBs we have.

[QuikSand]

Dropbox - groupthk 2016 end reg season.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/svc1ybbmjqa8n3k/groupthk%202016%20end%20reg%20season.zip?dl=0)

We have some things to discuss...

[MalcPow]

The file is in Week 16... ah, I think I see the discussion...

[QuikSand]

...ahh fuck it.

We drop our last two under Bishop (giving up 38 pts in each) and fall to the wildcard. We open at 10-6 KC with Adachi still out-4.

[QuikSand]

...and ballgame, great googily moogily, we got painted over in Arrowhead.

[MalcPow]

Defense is still awful, geez.

[QuikSand]

Okay, the real end of the story here:

Dropbox - groupthk - 2016 end.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/bo1m6ki5tz8fyjj/groupthk%20-%202016%20end.zip?dl=0)

http://sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/2016_gt_cle_team_summary.jpg

[QuikSand]

Basically, we passed fairly well, didn't turn it over, and were very meh otherwise.

[QuikSand]

Start of free agency in 2017: Dropbox - groupthk 2017 start FA.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/csz8d3v93e4ga2q/groupthk%202017%20start%20FA.zip?dl=0)

I will get us to the next draft tonight at some point...

[aston217]

Pass Rush #2 in the league
Pass Rush Allowed #4 in the league

That's what I like to see, especially the second one. Last season I believe it was #32.

[QuikSand]

OL chemistry at a crossroads, C Rogers (44/44, 3yr starter) has now become our chem leader (led 95, pers 11, trainwreck combo if you give a damn about this stuff). On my own team, I'd cut him, but here I guess we just suck it up if we want him to stick around.

[johnnyshaka]

Persons of interest:

RB Darrell "Uncle" Rico
G Ricky Patton
DE Alejandro Money
DE Ethan Ziemak
DT Harold Roach
ILB Melvin Degley
OLB Donovan Patton
FS Dexter Woods

[MalcPow]

OL chemistry at a crossroads, C Rogers (44/44, 3yr starter) has now become our chem leader (led 95, pers 11, trainwreck combo if you give a damn about this stuff). On my own team, I'd cut him, but here I guess we just suck it up if we want him to stick around.

Definitely not one of the guys I'm invested in. Do your thing.

[MalcPow]

You've got carte blanche on that stuff. I'm interested in understanding the rough break points for your play with regard to the chemistry/talent tensions. So no regulators on that front here.

[QuikSand]

Overall, it seems to me like C Rogers is the guy you (MP) are able to spin from straw at will. He's rated in his 40s, nothing too special, but more useful than the guys most of us get in round 4 of any draft. He's about to ask for a $4-5m/yr contract, and if we were playing "all out" I assume you'd probably balk at that...right? At some point you're just overpaying for cohesion there...he's 44/44 but in the last draft you landed McFall in the 6th who probably has a similar arc ahead.

[QuikSand]

FWIW, current OL leader Dubey is only a short term play there anyhow...Ldr of 64 makes him vulnerable to losing the role. Now it's Rogers (95/11) but next/soon it will be Patterson (85/90) who actually sizes up (in general) as a great long term leader type - good enough to play a bit, shouldn't ever ask for real money, and good combo of ldr/pers.

Problem there is Patterson hates McFall, So, if there's a lesson here, this might be a teachable moment of sorts. If you want uber-chemistry, you have to think far ahead. If I liked (but not loved) McFall, I would have in mind that not only a 3-4 leader matters at OL, but also 5-6 (since I built the chem empire around a 10-11 QB, and those two signs both work with him). The shadow conflict (even more present when I see my current leader is either retirement prone or subject to losing his perch) would likely be enough to keep me from drafting him.

[QuikSand]

...along a similar note here, we face a sink-or-swim moment with DE Roberson, who has played adequately at the boring RDE slot. We can clearly afford his demands of $3-4m/yr, and I have a bid in to keep him as I type this.

However, chemistry looms here too. DE Pena is a lynchpin right now, and he'll retire soon, likely after this year. Then Roberson and his uninspiring 90/54 slides into he leadership slot, and could be tough to unseat (in FOF7 it's far tougher to find perfect fits). So that's a worry too. Roberson as our leader would set the dial to nearly zero with this group - he's a 5-6 like most everyone else, and he's low enough personality to get little from the couple of 10-11 guys we do have.

(Searching) ... no silver bullet guys out there that I can see...

[Julio Riddols]

Getting the new file now.. Have to say after a glance at the summary, defense has to be a point of emphasis.

[QuikSand]

Ok, prelim offseason stuff tended to. Ran through soe of the first round, but since I didn't study hard, I wanted to leave us an option to trade up if needed.

1. Miami - Welch, Zayden, QB, Arkansas State
2. Atlanta - McCormick, Lorenzo, DE, Northern Illinois
3. Washington - Falls, Jayce, CB, Tenn. - Chattanooga
4. Cincinnati - Thompson, Blaine, OLB, Nevada
5. Buffalo - Preston, Monty, DE, Middle Tennessee St.
6. Chicago - Katz, Reuben, ILB, Duke
7. Green Bay - Talmadge, Henry, T, Ohio State
8. Oakland - Kerska, Reggie, G, Texas - El Paso
9. New York - Somogyi, Vince, ILB, Duke
10. Philadelphia - Luke, J.J., WR, Maryland
11. Tampa Bay - Buckley, Rex, RB, Georgia Tech
12. Tennessee - Quinn, Walt, S, Southern California
13. Seattle - Gardner, Tim, ILB, St. John's, NY.
14. New England - Koenig, Terry, RB, South Carolina

Dropbox - groupthk 2017 draft underway.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/uc8etv8safisgsh/groupthk%202017%20draft%20underway.zip?dl=0)

[johnnyshaka]

Now that the football game is over I decided to have another look with an eye on defense.

CB Jacob Lowe - no combine guy with big bars and two red combine numbers.
CB Amari Lindenmuth - solid combine and looks to be at least a nickel guy, borderline starter.
ILB Frank Winkler - Well developed with decent coverage bars
ILB Brent Springer - Potential leader with coverage skills

[MalcPow]

Good stuff. And I agree on pretty much everything. Rogers has the benefit of being positionally developed and a cohesion boost, but he's an overpay from a talent standpoint. McCall is a different flavor of the same guy and I think this 40-50 OL space is extremely replaceable late in the draft or even in UDFA. It's actually a frustration as I think it's a spot where you really do want to keep bringing back under the radar FAs on cheap veteran deals instead of paying these guys who want starter money for being developed and played. The chance that some of them turn into 60ish guys keeps me drafting them, but I think in general it's a losing play and a trap starts to develop as they stick on your roster. You probably need to be disciplined, particularly when they show you pretty clearly they're a 40s guy like Rogers.

Good perspective on the chemistry implications of a McCall too.

[johnnyshaka]

Probably need to start talking about who gets a 2nd contract and who doesn't.

[MalcPow]

I'll catch up and take a look at the class quickly here as well. I'll try to push us through the draft here tonight. Fire away with other thoughts you guys have.

[MalcPow]

Ok, we're 8 picks away at the start of the file. CB Lowe looks like a very good pick for us with a strong chance of making it to us. He's 4th CB on the board by grade right now. MLB Melvin Degley is another good player and at a position of serious need. I'd say he has a chance to get to us. DT Harold Roach is another guy who might solve our NT issues. Good combines, young, and the run stopping might be truly elite with that 7.18 agil and max-looking RD bar. He's not my first choice, but he's another guy I'd take who has a real chance to get to us. If it all goes sideways, I see some WRs I'd like as well (what's new).

I feel comfortable keeping our picks with options like this... I think I really want CB Lowe though.

[johnnyshaka]

Love the CB.

[MalcPow]

15. Carolina - Ramsey, Jacob, QB, Wake Forest
16. San Francisco - Van Pelt, Thurman, DT, Clemson
17. Denver - Agree, Dana, T, San Diego State
18. Pittsburgh - Roach, Harold, DT, Louisiana - Lafayette
19. Indianapolis - Bailey, Ivan, WR, Notre Dame
20. Tampa Bay - Lyons, Javier, WR, Buffalo
21. Minnesota - Walsh, Dana, OLB, Navy
22. Jacksonville - Murray, Harris, RB, Stanford

The WRs go, so I'm not even tempted. And DT Roach gets popped. Lowe is still the 4th CB on the board by grade but I don't feel comfortable risking a trade down. Quik's point about bargain secondaries is well-taken, but this guy has a bunch of maxed bars post-interview and an As Scouted review from our staff.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/538/JfiZ6v.png

He hits the roster at 27/83 and I feel really good about this one. He may wobble around like Adachi did, but I think he's an elite player at one of the big spots.

[Julio Riddols]

Thoughts on 2nd contract guys:

First, I think we should move to a 4-3 defense. Minimize the use of our weakest link on defense. Yeah, we have a good pass rushing LB, but Dole is probably an even better pass rusher. I think we're making it harder on him by running a 3-4. We also have enough depth on the D-Line to go 4-5 deep on that area.

Sartori has been valuable for his leadership.. But should we let him walk? Preimsberg can clearly handle more work and would cost 5 million less per year. I think Adachi has enough weapons that we can afford to let Sartori go after this season. If anyone offered to trade for him this season, I would jump on it.

I think we should probably extend Adachi now. Waiting might cost us another 10 million a year.

Could probably cut Bishop and find a young backup QB in the draft or a cheap guy at about the same level in FA 2. That would cover most of Adachi's raise.

Solorio and Fredrickson hate each other, I think we gotta cut ties with Solorio.

I think we should re-sign Rex Reilly now. I think we save significant money doing that.

Why is WR Deron Patell on the team? He looks like a target eater who we would not want on the field and has no affinities and replaceable special teams skills.

I think Josue Shields is worth that 5 year deal he is requesting. He actually developed into a nice number 2.

I think we have too much depth to sign Farrior unless we have everyone else taken care of already and still have funds left over. He is a really good PR though, and he adds a lot on special teams. Is that worth a few mil a year?

At C I think we sign Patterson for another year and let Rogers go.

Probably just cut G Brown outright.

T Linquist is sturdy and a bookend caliber guy. I think he deserves to be paid. That said, franchise salary for a T is lower than what he is requesting.

I think Bob Clinton is only worth resigning if we have money left over after signing higher priority guys.

K Kedwell is statistically replaceable.

DE Dole I think might be better to re-sign now before we unleash him in a 4-3 if it is decided that we should make the switch.

RDE Jordan Roberson is worth keeping around for a couple mil a year.

I could see paying DT Shea 5 million a year.

We save a million if we re-sign Geiger at LB right now.

LS Marshall Ward only wants pennies.

The secondary guys, I think they are a toss up. If we have the money after re-signing the big studs, then I think they are asking for modest enough salaries to keep them around. It is likely they would play better with time to build cohesion. Heimburger seems like the best we have back there statistically, I'd bet on him continuing to produce at near the same level he did this past season. We might be ok with him and McNeil as our starting S's if we can find one more good CB.

[MalcPow]

23. Cleveland - Lowe, Jacob, CB, Southern California
24. Jacksonville - Sherman, Cornell, G, Georgia Tech
25. Detroit - Bashford, Carter, QB, West Virginia
26. San Diego - Danila, Damien, S, Mississippi State
27. Kansas City - Meyer, Devin, WR, Boston College
28. St. Louis - Degley, Melvin, ILB, Texas Southern
29. Arizona - Guerrieri, Horace, DT, Miami, Florida
30. New Jersey - Weyand, Jacob, WR, Rutgers
31. Dallas - Boone, Ernest, ILB, Indiana
32. Baltimore - Money, Alejandro, DE, UCLA
33. Miami - Gabay, Dana, WR, Houston
34. Atlanta - Pagnotti, Jeremiah, T, Baylor
35. Washington - Forbes, Kenyon, G, Wyoming
36. Buffalo - Scotti, Shane, DT, Northwestern
37. Cincinnati - Solis, Mitchell, CB, Wake Forest
38. Chicago - Hogue, Lamont, FB, Rice
39. Oakland - Ussery, Ike, RB, Michigan
40. Green Bay - Irwin, Jayce, OLB, Arizona
41. Philadelphia - Taylor, Jay, DT, Michigan State
42. Tampa Bay - Beverly, Joey, OLB, Florida State

I really wanted to get a LB here, and I stupidly thought we had a chance at one of ILBs Degley and Boone or OLBs Irwin and Beverley. The last OLB that I had in this tier of guys was WLB Donovan Patton. So when Beverly went off the board, we traded our 3rd to move up to get Patton. I don't feel bad about it. We can probably move him inside. I think there was a big dropoff after him for us to have any chance at addressing our LBs.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/537/WJU45s.png

I feel pretty good about this. We get some no combine upside. He's young but fairly developed. I think he's either a coverage SLB or we move him inside, but he gives us more options.

[Julio Riddols]

I like Patton. Move him to MLB and let out other 3 decent LBs play outside. I think the defense looks a TON better than it did already. Now I would just look for value guys, regardless of position. Maybe replacements for guys we don;t plan to pay, maybe a backup QB to take Bishop's spot so we can pay Adachi.

[Julio Riddols]

Is QB Connor Contois still out there?

Actually screw Contois, Joey Sutter has 99 leadership and is an affinity with personality in the 60's. Maybe he is a better choice.

[Julio Riddols]

RB Rod Lynn would be a good guy to grab to let us cut ties with Solorio.

[Julio Riddols]

LG Jackson Kramer I like.

T Kendrick Bruggeman looks like a solid swing tackle.

[MalcPow]

It feels like a long drop to the 4th and I don't really see any particular fits for our needs, so I'm just going value from here.

LT Drake Hoffman has combines that come in under the thresholds, a big strength score (sorry, aston), and a bar profile that I think is good. He also came back Underrated and a potential affinity.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/661/3KJKZR.png

5th rounder ILB Axel Butler had the highest grade for any ILB and looks just enough like he might be able to be a 45ish solid piece for us at a place where we need bodies. OLB Runnels is similar. Solid-ish combines, position of need, sounds good. And DT Brantley Danek is another pass-rushing DT because I just haven't learned my lesson yet with the 3-4.

Dropbox - groupthk_140914_EndDraft2017.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/o0gj56o2vhil341/groupthk_140914_EndDraft2017.zip?dl=0)

[Julio Riddols]

DT Levon Watkins - nice run stuffing ability.

Could SLB Norm Clinton be an interesting guy to move to SS?

Could SLB Gavin Kroner move to DE?

[MalcPow]

Just seeing those notes now, JR. The QBs got popped, but a couple of those guys slipped through to UDFA.

[Julio Riddols]

Really think we should have re-signed Adachi this year.

[Julio Riddols]

I like UDFA WR Rayburn

UDFA C Sherman Blow

[Julio Riddols]

LG Ross Patterson probably drops, but is an affinity.

[aston217]

Ew, Hoffman. Hehe.

Tbh it's a little hard to tell with him. I'd feel better if his dash and agility scores were solid to good as opposed to just "doesn't rule him out." Especially with such a good bench, it makes me think he could be exactly how he looks, only with RB and PB inflated some. But we'll see.

I drafted a pretty similar looking guard recently and now Im feeling burned. But I really thought he would be great, so I'm hopeful I am totally off on this guy.

[MalcPow]

I was just catching back up a little. Julio's long notes post on the last page about guys to sign and other general roster thoughts is worth revisiting. It probably makes sense to sign Adachi in particular, coming off a year where he missed a couple starts. And who are we kidding, Adachi is going to be part of this party regardless, might as well save a few bucks.

Just flagging that post. A lot of good stuff in there and I mostly missed it posting draft things.

[MalcPow]

Ew, Hoffman. Hehe.

Tbh it's a little hard to tell with him. I'd feel better if his dash and agility scores were solid to good as opposed to just "doesn't rule him out." Especially with such a good bench, it makes me think he could be exactly how he looks, only with RB and PB inflated some. But we'll see.

I drafted a pretty similar looking guard recently and now Im feeling burned. But I really thought he would be great, so I'm hopeful I am totally off on this guy.

Heh, yeah. I don't really have high hopes for him, but he made the most sense at the time. We gotta have a couple guys who can bench, bro.

[QuikSand]

I will use the JR novella as a major guide in working some contracts ahead.

FWIW, I have been deliberately making several contracts cut-friendly when we have had big cap space and I have been acting basically on my own. Done of these guts wanted fewer dollars, but stronger guarantees. I suspect that party will be over soon as we lock up a few stars to real deals.

[QuikSand]

So are we going to get an offensive line this year?

We still can after the preseason moves...or do you know of a specific pivot on reneg demands that we have passed?

[QuikSand]

We have two holdouts, WR Shields and SS McNeil - both were on the re-up list anyway, so I will tend to those here, among others. I like JR's thinking on our long term commitment, but I might be more eager to lock up the RT than he is -- but I will be cautious in doing so.

[QuikSand]

Thoughts on 2nd contract guys:

First, I think we should move to a 4-3 defense. Minimize the use of our weakest link on defense. Yeah, we have a good pass rushing LB, but Dole is probably an even better pass rusher. I think we're making it harder on him by running a 3-4. We also have enough depth on the D-Line to go 4-5 deep on that area.

Sartori has been valuable for his leadership.. But should we let him walk? Preimsberg can clearly handle more work and would cost 5 million less per year. I think Adachi has enough weapons that we can afford to let Sartori go after this season. If anyone offered to trade for him this season, I would jump on it.

I think we should probably extend Adachi now. Waiting might cost us another 10 million a year.

Could probably cut Bishop and find a young backup QB in the draft or a cheap guy at about the same level in FA 2. That would cover most of Adachi's raise.

Solorio and Fredrickson hate each other, I think we gotta cut ties with Solorio.

I think we should re-sign Rex Reilly now. I think we save significant money doing that.

Why is WR Deron Patell on the team? He looks like a target eater who we would not want on the field and has no affinities and replaceable special teams skills.

I think Josue Shields is worth that 5 year deal he is requesting. He actually developed into a nice number 2.

I think we have too much depth to sign Farrior unless we have everyone else taken care of already and still have funds left over. He is a really good PR though, and he adds a lot on special teams. Is that worth a few mil a year?

At C I think we sign Patterson for another year and let Rogers go.

Probably just cut G Brown outright.

T Linquist is sturdy and a bookend caliber guy. I think he deserves to be paid. That said, franchise salary for a T is lower than what he is requesting.

I think Bob Clinton is only worth resigning if we have money left over after signing higher priority guys.

K Kedwell is statistically replaceable.

DE Dole I think might be better to re-sign now before we unleash him in a 4-3 if it is decided that we should make the switch.

RDE Jordan Roberson is worth keeping around for a couple mil a year.

I could see paying DT Shea 5 million a year.

We save a million if we re-sign Geiger at LB right now.

LS Marshall Ward only wants pennies.

The secondary guys, I think they are a toss up. If we have the money after re-signing the big studs, then I think they are asking for modest enough salaries to keep them around. It is likely they would play better with time to build cohesion. Heimburger seems like the best we have back there statistically, I'd bet on him continuing to produce at near the same level he did this past season. We might be ok with him and McNeil as our starting S's if we can find one more good CB.

Quoting for my own reference... I will summarize below.

[QuikSand]

We lock up new serious long-term deals with:
WR Shields
S McNeil
DE Dole

We sign shorter or simpler deals with:
FB Hampton
TE Preimsburg
SS Heimburger

We decide to wait on:
LT Linquist (we will pursue aggressively or tag next year)
CB Godfrey
DT Shea
RT Clinton
RB Solorio
LB Abdullah
S Carpenter
...and anyone else not mentioned above

I think we can play the DB market by ear - even in FOF7, it's still fairly predictable what it will take to re-sign your own players. I will do a re-assessment at the end of this season, but I think this is good for now.

[johnnyshaka]

QB Adachi?

[QuikSand]

QB Adachi?

waiting to see what happens in preseason with both him and the WR

[QuikSand]

Training Camp movement (minimal)

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Weagle, Frankie Cleveland FB -3
Meador, Cornelius Cleveland QB -3
Patterson, Ross Cleveland LG -2
Lowe, Jacob Cleveland LCB -2
Whisman, Duane Cleveland LCB -1
Lynn, Rod Cleveland RB -1
Seignious, Blake Cleveland LCB 0
Godfrey, Brantley Cleveland LCB 0
Roberson, Jordan Cleveland RDE 0
McNeil, Blaine Cleveland SS 0


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
Emmons, Nathan Cleveland SLB 6
Hofmann, Drake Cleveland LT 3
Runnels, Joshua Cleveland WLB 3
Butler, Axel Cleveland SILB 3
Dudgeon, Clarence Cleveland RDT 2
Danek, Brantley Cleveland LDT 2
Bensen, Elliot Cleveland RDT 1
Flynn, Freddie Cleveland FL 1
Bellucci, Rufus Cleveland FL 1
Solorio, T.J. Cleveland RB 0

[QuikSand]

Hofmann, heh... TAKE NOTE. "Bar profile" FTW.

[QuikSand]

Ratings movement from pre-camp to mid-preseason:


Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Sartori, Xavier Cleveland TE -11
Seignious, Blake Cleveland LCB -10
Patterson, Ross Cleveland LG -10
Blair, Eugene Cleveland TE -9
Reilly, Rex Cleveland FL -8
Hodges, Kaiden Cleveland RDE -7
Lynn, Rod Cleveland RB -7
Dubey, Harvey Cleveland C -7
Shields, Josue Cleveland SE -5
Lowe, Jacob Cleveland LCB -5


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
Coyle, Spencer Cleveland LCB 10
Hofmann, Drake Cleveland LT 9
Runnels, Joshua Cleveland WLB 8
Butler, Axel Cleveland SILB 8
Danek, Brantley Cleveland LDT 7
Godfrey, Brantley Cleveland LCB 7
Heimburger, Damian Cleveland SS 4
Park, Jack Cleveland RDT 4
Dudgeon, Clarence Cleveland RDT 3
Rayburn, Don Cleveland SE 3

Whoa, big dumps from both starting WRs...

[QuikSand]

Quick thoughts here:

-I see no point in cutting QB Bishop. We have no use for the $7m in cap space (the way we are playing) and that would leave us just barren behind Adachi. I'm keeping him around. Next year we can target a backup QB in the draft, perhaps, as the affinity stiffs we have aboard now are not noteworthy.

-I'll contemplate what to do at TE, I don't think we re-sign Sartoti after this year anyway, but I think he's obviously better than the guy whose roster spot he'd be taking, even after an age-related bad camp. He's still a high caliber guy.

-Sorting out who plays where at LB will take a bit of thinking, but at least we are out of the void we had there until now - both rookies look good (duh)

-This team has probably arrived at the point of having credible quality guys everywhere. It's bittersweet for me, I really love the "OMG WE HAVE NOBODY TO PLAY THE SAMBACKER" stages of the building process.

[QuikSand]

And once again, while the long term jury is out, it's really clear that MP really understands how to pick guys who are going to start having their bars move in the right direction.

Whether they actually keep up those bars or play like stars isn't clear from what we have in hand... but his ability to land 50-rated guys in every round of the draft is something to behold.

[johnnyshaka]

And once again, while the long term jury is out, it's really clear that MP really understands how to pick guys who are going to start having their bars move in the right direction.

Whether they actually keep up those bars or play like stars isn't clear from what we have in hand... but his ability to land 50-rated guys in every round of the draft is something to behold.

Agreed. I often think MP is actually Jim's "other" account here at FOFC. :)

[QuikSand]

Love the pull on WR Rayburn, JR... great fit.

[QuikSand]

RB Giles does us a solid by blowing out a knee in preseason. Affinity gimp not counting against the 53-man limit - GOLD.

[Julio Riddols]

I love the term Affinity Gimp.

[MalcPow]

And once again, while the long term jury is out, it's really clear that MP really understands how to pick guys who are going to start having their bars move in the right direction.

Whether they actually keep up those bars or play like stars isn't clear from what we have in hand... but his ability to land 50-rated guys in every round of the draft is something to behold.

Yeah, it feels like a bit of a parlor trick at times. Obviously a lot of the feedback I've used to hone my drafting comes from looking at who moves in the right direction. I don't really know if that means I end up with all the guys who scouts "like" but aren't really much better than the other guys taken around them. I try to watch these things to draw performance impressions, but I honestly don't know. Will just keep fishing for pretty looking ratings I guess.

[MalcPow]

Also, I'm Gindin.

[Julio Riddols]

Glad to hear good things about Rayburn at WR. I like guys who don't eat targets and are also affinities. Him going up a few points is just some icing.

My comment about the O-line was actually before last off season got underway, I think we did a pretty decent job addressing that spot actually. I think we have just about the right guys up front, except for maybe at C. I think the run game would really take off if we found a big time C to fill that slot for a decade or so.

[QuikSand]

2-0 start, we look unstoppable...

...until Adachi goes down again. 5 weeks with a concussion.

Lots of injuries piling up, but we are 7-2 upon Adachi's return - and tied with PIT in the division...

[Julio Riddols]

I also think Reilly and Shields will be fine. They'll probably bounce back.... hopefully.

[Julio Riddols]

The rise of the Browns is at hand!

[QuikSand]

We are 9-6 heading into the last game, in position for a WC but could blow it... injuries everywhere.

But we get the win at home over Baltimore and get in...

[QuikSand]

One and out - this time in a nailbiter to NE, sorry gang.

I'll do late season contract stuff and post a file shortly.

[QuikSand]

End 2017 file

Dropbox - groupthk - end season 2017.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/vwng5ul463k4zb7/groupthk%20-%20end%20season%202017.zip?dl=0)

I have to run for a while... would be happy if there's progress, but if not I will probably pick back up late afternoon ET.

[johnnyshaka]

A guy I mentioned in the last draft, RB Darrell "Uncle" Rico, was picked by the Titans later in the 2nd round and looks to be a beast in the making. Fun watching guys like that.

Another guy I liked a few drafts back was CB Buddy Mason and watching how he's used in KC cracks me up...85 ST rating and he doesn't play ST. SMH.

[Julio Riddols]

Wow, our kicker really made some fantasy players happy.

[johnnyshaka]

Wow, our kicker really made some fantasy players happy.

57 attempts!?!?

[Julio Riddols]

Looking at the summary, I really think next year can be our year if we can stay healthy. You weren't kidding about those injuries. Yowza.

I feel like we could stand to land a stud OLB if we can't get our hands on a strong interior OL or stud S in the draft. The run game looks to be in good hands, WR has good depth, Preimsberg had a nice first year as starter, Dole is a handful for opponents and our rookie MLB acquisition from last season has an outstanding future.

[aston217]

Malcpow, you are truly a god among men. I hang my head in shame at my inadequacy : D

[QuikSand]

Okay, draftniks. I'm back at the desk, will get to 2018 FA shortly.

[QuikSand]

No other NFL team will have us, by the way. If you had designs on taking the reins at the 3-13 Jags (heh), SORRY WE'RE ALL SET BUT THANKS JUST THE SAME.

(note to self - that might make for a fun challenge, though - knowing what we know/love about these players, make a franchise change and see what we could harvest from the CLE roster)

[QuikSand]

So, I had to make a few moves in the name of chemistry, invoking my "carte blanche." DE Roberson is gone, traded for a move-up this year... semi-sorry about that, but I actually like the guys we have to use at the pass rusher slots (Hodges and Bensen, maybe DT Shea) so I don't feel like we're in trouble due to the loss.

I also didn't sign C Patterson, expecting to leave that to the group to decide whether to pursue him in late FA - then he signed right before the draft. So it goes.

Here's the file up to the start of the draft. There's a C there that I **love** and would love to land, but I don't want to (1) risk losing him without a discussion, or (2) make any decisions about the value of draft picks without group input. So, here's the full file... have at it.

Dropbox - groupthk - 2018 start draft.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/gs9mmbne3f116xu/groupthk%20-%202018%20start%20draft.zip?dl=0)

p.s. I love that center.

[QuikSand]

FWIW, give where our team is overall, and the relative ease of landing "good enough" players... I think landing a clearly elite player at a pretty important position is fairly high for us.

Here's a trade that it looks like we could pull off, if the C fell as far as pick 7:
CLE sends 1.24 + this years 2+3+3 + next year's 3

[MalcPow]

Just downloading the file now. I'm expecting Bill Brasky.

[Julio Riddols]

You know you have my vote, I am all about C's.

[MalcPow]

Ok, yeah, so... that's about as good as they look.

[MalcPow]

Why the hell not... if he falls to 7, we will do the trade. At the very least it will let us attribute any success we have to our Center addition.

If he doesn't fall to 7... has anyone ever seen a Center go top 5?

[MalcPow]

Welcome aboard.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/674/HrLY8u.png

Here's a draft list for anyone using analyzer or the like:

1. Jacksonville - Thomason, Skip, WR, Kansas State
2. Kansas City - Bergmann, Bernie, QB, Stanford
3. Minnesota - Dole, Xander, QB, North Carolina
4. Tampa Bay - Addy, Deion, T, Arkansas State
5. Tennessee - Ta'Amu, Ricky, T, Rutgers
6. Miami - DeLong, Jackie, ILB, Tulsa
7. Cleveland - Buchanan, Irv, C, Hawaii
8. Dallas - Szaton, Dan, DT, Duke
9. Washington - Cochrane, Arnie, DT, Southern Mississippi
10. Green Bay - Riley, Grant, CB, Baylor
11. Buffalo - Bean, Monty, DT, West Virginia Tech
12. Cincinnati - Benner, Harrison, DE, Central Florida
13. New Jersey - Roberts, Miguel, OLB, Minnesota
14. Carolina - Viera, Todd, QB, Texas Tech
15. San Francisco - Beitelspacher, Gerald, WR, Delaware
16. Detroit - Clovis, Abel, WR, Alabama - Birmingham
17. Seattle - Bradford, Andy, G, North Carolina
18. Baltimore - Bates, Alexis, DT, Virginia
19. Indianapolis - Bradford, Hugh, OLB, Notre Dame
20. San Diego - Poston, Mel, CB, Mesa State
21. Atlanta - Horner, Dale, QB, Arizona
22. Arizona - Clarke, Cameron, G, William & Mary
23. Denver - Stanton, Quentin, OLB, Arizona State
24. New York - Sciullo, Keegan, RB, Stanford
25. Philadelphia - Owens, Jaden, DT, Duke
26. New England - Messer, Ezekiel, OLB, Iowa State
27. New Orleans - Maxwell, Courtney, DT, Stanford
28. Oakland - Oliver, Derek, T, Duke
29. St. Louis - McGregor, Christian, OLB, Stanford
30. Pittsburgh - McKeehan, Jumbo, CB, Kansas
31. Baltimore - Woodard, Mateo, RB, Virginia
32. Chicago - Booker, Sebastian, S, Eastern Tenn. St.
33. Jacksonville - Barrett, Dixon, TE, Boston College
34. Minnesota - Brady, Vernon, RB, Alabama
35. Kansas City - Jaffe, Ricardo, DT, Eastern Michigan
36. Tennessee - Necaise, Grant, G, Baylor
37. Tampa Bay - Hayakawa, Ivan, CB, East Carolina
38. Baltimore - Henderson, Deron, CB, Penn State
39. Dallas - Ulrich, Charlie, OLB, Oregon
40. Washington - McKenzie, Ricardo, DE, Syracuse
41. Green Bay - Norris, Ryker, OLB, Purdue
42. Buffalo - Widner, Sam, QB, Oklahoma State
43. Cincinnati - Pierce, Jamie, QB, Maryland
44. Miami - Spencer, Ronnie, FB, New Mexico
45. Carolina - Wolfe, Hang Time, ILB, Northwestern
46. San Francisco - Stanton, Chase, ILB, Arizona State
47. Detroit - Russell, Chester, CB, Tulane
48. Seattle - Coburn, Hayden, DE, Colorado
49. Dallas - Williamson, Peyton, TE, Penn State
50. Indianapolis - Kanou, Jameson, RB, Oregon State
51. New Jersey - Ballard, Darren, DT, Nicholls State
52. San Diego - Malecki, Greg, DE, Virginia Military
53. Atlanta - Shalon, Shannon, DE, Georgetown
54. Denver - Gaddis, Johnnie, T, Wyoming
55. Arizona - Fleming, Earnest, WR, Arkansas State
56. New York - Pressey, Harrison, G, Southern California
57. Philadelphia - Vanags, Conrad, G, Western Michigan
58. New England - Reitz, Reuben, WR, Liberty (Va.)
59. New Orleans - Masters, Horace, DT, Penn State
60. Oakland - Batteaux, Leonardo, CB, Villanova
61. St. Louis - Call, Parker, CB, North Carolina A&T
62. Pittsburgh - Crane, Gabe, G, Louisiana State
63. Tampa Bay - Corbett, Sherman, S, Wake Forest
64. Chicago - Burgess, Brody, RB, Virginia Tech
65. Jacksonville - Monroe, Gabriel, G, Mississippi State
66. Kansas City - Vance, Lincoln, G, Kansas
67. Minnesota - Cunningham, Hayden, WR, Notre Dame
68. Tampa Bay - Battle, Roman, S, Kansas
69. Tennessee - Fields, Lester, T, Michigan State
71. Washington - Ours, Cedric, RB, Alabama
73. Buffalo - Stuart, Sherman, RB, Alabama
74. Cincinnati - Whalen, Jaylen, G, Marshall
75. Miami - Hatcher, Jermaine, S, St. John's, NY.
76. New York - Montgomery, Tristan, C, Texas Tech
77. San Francisco - Riley, Amir, S, Penn State
78. Detroit - Mallow, Darnell, WR, Louisiana State
79. Seattle - Moss, Shannon, CB, Northwestern
80. New York - Tamm, Clarence, WR, Temple
81. Indianapolis - Kenfield, Scott, WR, Iowa State
82. New Jersey - Everett, Britt, RB, Illinois
83. Carolina - Benson, Vernon, CB, Louisiana Tech
84. San Diego - Joyner, Ken, CB, Purdue
85. Atlanta - Seibert, Jessie, CB, Georgia Tech
86. Arizona - Ferguson, Kenny, CB, Baylor
87. Denver - Renes, Ricardo, OLB, Maryland
88. New York - Lyubashevsky, Graham, DE, Miami, Florida
89. Philadelphia - Feeney, Wally, RB, Indiana
90. New England - Heinrich, Lonnie, ILB, UCLA
91. New York - Fortmann, Matt, T, Oregon
92. Oakland - Hartman, Bob, T, Notre Dame
93. St. Louis - Anglewicz, Braxton, DT, UCLA
94. Pittsburgh - Wheatley, Marc, ILB, Oregon
95. Tampa Bay - Horner, Damien, CB, Colorado
96. Chicago - Desantis, Bobby, CB, Vanderbilt
97. Jacksonville - McNally, Byron, WR, Alabama
98. Minnesota - Thomson, Calvin, P, North Carolina
99. Kansas City - Weese, Lionel, WR, Oregon
100. Tennessee - Ford, Troy, FB, Oregon
101. Tampa Bay - Lehr, Ayden, OLB, Stanford
102. Jacksonville - Carter, K.C., ILB, Fresno State
103. Green Bay - Swedberg, Chad, T, Michigan
104. Buffalo - Farrow, Logan, CB, Notre Dame
105. Cincinnati - Danek, Kenneth, RB, New Haven
106. Miami - Richard, Marco, RB, California
107. New York - Oleary, Tito, TE, Georgia Tech
108. Dallas - Wheelock, Harrison, DT, Canisius
109. Detroit - Nichols, Darren, ILB, Tennessee
110. Seattle - Ramsey, Byron, RB, Wisconsin
111. Dallas - Hambly, Chance, WR, Penn State
112. Indianapolis - Blackwell, Mateo, P, Oklahoma
113. New Jersey - Williams, Horace, K, Colorado State
114. Carolina - Kemp, Luke, S, Northern Iowa
115. San Francisco - Jalbert, Levon, S, North Carolina
116. San Diego - Kemp, Eduardo, TE, Oregon State
117. Atlanta - Najera, Horace, G, Penn State
118. Denver - Greer, Spencer, RB, Florida
119. Arizona - Zimmerman, Dean, CB, Arkansas

I'll pause here for half an hour or so if anyone wants to offer thoughts for our 4-7th rounders with that info.

Buchanan does look awesome.

[Julio Riddols]

After looking at the file I say YES PLEASE.... and thank you.

[MalcPow]

You may also find it interesting to note that Buchanan has a 7.8 raw grade. Apparently the highest Center raw grade I saw while doing the combine benchmarks stuff was a 7.5. Now that was the old game, 5+ years ago, things can change, etc... but damn.

That 91 that he hits the roster at sounds very realistic.

[MalcPow]

+ Exceptional Affinity. No big deal.

[Julio Riddols]

Irv is just what the doctor ordered.. I anticipate a STRONG offensive performance coming around the bend.. Maybe not this year, but next year for sure.

[Julio Riddols]

I gotta believe a couple of those stud Guards fell to our next pick.

[Julio Riddols]

Jaylen Whalen in particular.

[QuikSand]

+ Exceptional Affinity. No big deal.

#whoknew

[Julio Riddols]

LCB Ken Joyner is interesting.

[Julio Riddols]

Juan Cambini as a backup QB?

[QuikSand]

I'm without game access, but love this draft anyway.

[QuikSand]

By the way, what file do I need to copy into the GT file to get our CLE color scheme the more Cleveland-y brown and orange rather than the sky blue? Just trying to immerse...

*puts on dawg helmet and barks*

[MalcPow]

By the way, what file do I need to copy into the GT file to get our CLE color scheme the more Cleveland-y brown and orange rather than the sky blue? Just trying to immerse...

*puts on dawg helmet and barks*

I think if you drag your frfoot.fcc file in the universe folder into the groupthk subfolder, you'll get the orange and brown rippling on the rough, textured papyrus of the default aesthetics.

[MalcPow]

Our picks

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/538/QUwxzI.png

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/537/8U2AUI.png

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/540/3buvk4.png

The file: Dropbox - groupthk_140915_End18Draft.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/wlfxmwg7tssw9hp/groupthk_140915_End18Draft.zip?dl=0)

[QuikSand]

I get a special tingle seeing orange ranges in your screenshots.

You liked that QB? Or just placated my chem longings?

[QuikSand]

Training camp movement:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Freeman, Wade Cleveland RB -2
Sevcik, Winfred Cleveland RG -2
Rice, Nate Cleveland LDE -2
Giles, Roderick Cleveland RB -2
Foreman, Maxwell Cleveland RB -1
Godfrey, Brantley Cleveland LCB 0
McNeil, Blaine Cleveland SS 0
Park, Jack Cleveland RDT 0
Russell, Francisco Cleveland QB 0
Witt, Jason Cleveland FS 0


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
Hodges, Kaiden Cleveland RDE 5
Griffith, Lenny Cleveland SS 4
Walters, Santiago Cleveland LDE 3
Sperr, Lawrence Cleveland MLB 2
Gibson, Donnell Cleveland QB 2
Buchanan, Irv Cleveland C 1
Mattocks, Bucky Cleveland RG 1
Adachi, Dustin Cleveland QB 1
Levine, Nick Cleveland RB 1
Fredrickson, Oliver Cleveland RB 1

[QuikSand]

shit, i misclicked something and now have to watch/click the whole first week of preseason...wtf

[Julio Riddols]

Irv got even better? Nice.

[QuikSand]

Preseason movers:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Coyle, Spencer Cleveland LCB -19
Lowe, Jacob Cleveland RCB -11
Geiger, Derrick Cleveland SLB -9
Sevcik, Winfred Cleveland RG -8
Buchanan, Irv Cleveland C -8
Freeman, Wade Cleveland RB -7
Vilnit, J.J. Cleveland FS -7
Butler, Axel Cleveland MLB -6
Levine, Nick Cleveland RB -6
Blair, Eugene Cleveland TE -4


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
Kedwell, Zachary Cleveland K 7
Walters, Santiago Cleveland LDE 7
Hodges, Kaiden Cleveland RDE 6
Gibson, Donnell Cleveland QB 5
Danek, Brantley Cleveland LDT 4
Mattocks, Bucky Cleveland RG 3
Rosales, Mitchell Cleveland RG 3
Feret, Omar Cleveland RCB 3
Hofmann, Drake Cleveland LT 2
Ehlert, Brandon Cleveland SLB 2

[Julio Riddols]

shit, i misclicked something and now have to watch/click the whole first week of preseason...wtf

This is an egregious error. Think we need to have a team wide vote on whether or not to allow further participation from Quik.

[Julio Riddols]

I'm becoming a big fan of Hodges, the DE.

[QuikSand]

I'm becoming a big fan of Hodges, the DE.

over under of 7.5 sacks this year...

[QuikSand]

wow, injury bloodbath again... both OTs out, cripples everywhere...

[QuikSand]

...both defensive affinity gimps are suiting up in week 5...

[QuikSand]

Injury Report:

Blaine McNeil, SS - Strained Foot Ligament, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Jack Park, RDT - Sprained Ankle, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Damian Heimburger, SS - Hyperextended Elbow, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Bob Clinton, RT - Broken Fibula, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Brandon Ehlert, SLB - Torn Knee Cartilage, Doubtful, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Nathan Emmons, SLB - Hyperextended Elbow, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Derrick Geiger, SLB - Hyperextended Knee, Out, full strength in about 4 weeks.

Peter Linquist, LT - Torn Lateral Knee Ligament, Out, full strength in about 9 weeks.

[QuikSand]

Front Office Football: The Seventh Edition
2018 Summary for Cleveland Maroons

Year 2018
Record 11-5
Winning Pct. .687
All-Time 39-57
Winning Pct. .406
Playoffs 0-2
Playoff Visits 3
Bowl Wins 0
Head Coach Joe DeCamillis
Record 32-18
Winning Pct. .640
Off. Coord. T. Steinberg
Def. Coord. T. Gilmore
Asst. Coach O. West
Stren. Coord. B. Chandler

Cleveland Maroons Team Rank
Rushes per Game 28.8 13 (T)
Rushing Yards 116.3 16
Yards Per Carry 4.04 25
Pass Attempts 36.6 14
Completions 22.4 15 (T)
Completion Pct. 61.2 17
Passing Yards 260.3 10
Yards Per Attempt 7.12 13
Yards Per Catch 11.63 7
Total Yardage Gained 364.1 9
3rd Down Conversions 32.6 23
Points Per Game 24.2 11
Pass Rush Pct. 25.8 1
Pass Defense Pct. 57.7 6
Turnovers 18 6 (T)
Turnover Margin +12 4

Opponents Team Rank
Rushes per Game 24.2 5
Rushing Yards 99.5 4
Yards Per Carry 4.11 7
Pass Attempts 38.6 28 (T)
Completions 22.0 20 (T)
Completion Pct. 57.0 4
Passing Yards 254.0 24
Yards Per Attempt 6.58 14
Yards Per Catch 11.55 25 (T)
Total Yardage Gained 335.3 10
3rd Down Conversions 36.7 22
Points Per Game 19.6 7 (T)
Pass Rush Pct. 18.1 7
Pass Defense Pct. 50.5 19 (T)
Turnovers 30 3 (T)

Week Team Versus Oppnt
1 26 at PIT 14
2 28 ATL 17
3 14 at NJY 16
5 24 DEN 23
6 23 OAK 28
7 17 at SDO 13
8 33 at KCY 10
9 14 at BAL 41
10 27 PIT 23
11 13 CIN 21
12 31 at NOS 14
13 37 IND 24
14 24 CAR 21
15 23 BAL 10
16 23 at TBY 26
17 30 at CIN 12
$$WC PIT

Passing Pos Att Comp Yards Y/Att TD Int Rate
1 D. Adachi QB 497 307 3446 6.93 17 12 83.8
10 L. Bishop QB 88 51 718 8.16 6 0 107.0
**Team --- 585 358 4164 7.12 23 12 87.2
$$Opp --- 618 352 4064 6.58 20 16 76.9 
Front Office Football: The Seventh Edition

Rushing Pos Att Yards Y/Att TD Fum
36 O. Fredrickson RB 324 1170 3.61 7 1
35 M. Foreman RB 60 243 4.05 3 2
1 D. Adachi QB 46 367 7.98 4 4
**Team --- 461 1861 4.04 15 13
$$Opp --- 387 1592 4.11 13 20

Receiving Pos Targ Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop TD
8 F. Flynn WR 164 93 1244 13.38 7.59 18 7
36 O. Fredrickson RB 88 66 565 8.56 6.42 2 4
89 J. Shields WR 121 62 810 13.06 6.69 13 3
87 A. Preimsberg TE 68 43 432 10.05 6.35 6 4
80 B. Farrior WR 46 29 415 14.31 9.02 2 1
3 R. Reilly WR 44 27 366 13.56 8.32 3 2
33 H. Hampton FB 29 24 195 8.13 6.72 0 0

Defense Pos Tack Asst Sack Hurr Ints Defn PDPct
50 D. Patton ILB 108 36 2.5 4 2 8 77.5
38 B. McNeil S 77 24 1.0 0 0 10 80.2
34 K. Way CB 62 12 0.0 0 2 6 76.8
27 J. Witt S 57 17 3.5 0 2 9 79.4
40 B. Godfrey CB 51 9 1.0 1 3 5 77.8
95 L. Dole DE 48 16 14.0 29 0 1 81.1
23 J. Lowe CB 48 16 0.0 0 4 16 84.1
45 B. Ehlert OLB 41 9 0.0 1 1 4 75.5
98 W. Shea DT 40 14 12.0 17 0 1 82.5
90 K. Hodges DE 40 12 7.0 26 0 0 81.3
96 B. Danek DT 30 11 2.0 6 0 0 81.1
57 L. Abdullah OLB 25 6 0.0 1 1 2 75.0
92 J. Park DT 24 9 2.0 11 0 0 81.6
56 N. Emmons OLB 17 5 1.5 0 0 2 74.4 

[QuikSand]

We get our first playoff win at home over PIT, but get shellacked at 14-2 Denver. Not bad, overall, but the injury thing feels like it's nonrandom. Every week I got the error message meaning another guy or two OUT. Setting is 100, not outrageous (or maybe that is).

[QuikSand]

End of 2018 file: Dropbox - groupthk end 2018.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/lernlk1vzc23ygt/groupthk%20end%202018.zip?dl=0)

[MalcPow]

Bah, dropbox keeps telling me the file is uploading. Any issues for anyone else?

[aston217]

dropbox says uploading...

We get our first playoff win at home over PIT, but get shellacked at 14-2 Denver. Not bad, overall, but the injury thing feels like it's nonrandom. Every week I got the error message meaning another guy or two OUT. Setting is 100, not outrageous (or maybe that is).

I think injuries can be pretty brutal, but it's perhaps tied to staff.

I notice the CCFL has it at 75 (although the GML says it has it at 125?...maybe that's from 2k7 days?).

In the OSFL, I simmed this season at 100 and ended up with 64 players on the roster at the end of Week 17. In the CyFL last season, I joined at around the halfway point and I think I averaged one star knocked out per game, some of them extensively. But there were other teams who were pretty injury free.

[QuikSand]

Sorry guys, had family crisis, my laptop might have battery-died while it was still uploading. I will try to get a file up shortly, I think my Cubby system worked at least.

[QuikSand]

I hope this works: Dropbox - groupthk - end 2018.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/9ob8gs5323mo9ef/groupthk%20-%20end%202018.zip?dl=0)

[QuikSand]

I think I will have a window of time to run us up to the next draft by about 10am ET.

[QuikSand]

File for draftniks: Dropbox - groupthk - 2019 start FA.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/qevw7lophly3d5g/groupthk%20-%202019%20start%20FA.zip?dl=0)


2019 offseason musings...

Nobody out there would have any part of us running their franchise, natch.

We are last in the staff draft (renovations underway, and lots of bonuses handed out, I guess) but don't lose anyone - we lock up our HC with a raise.

I contemplate tagging K Kedwell at $3.8m (I paid him more than that last year on a one year cut-friendly deal) but decide against. Our top free agent is WR Flynn, whom I will aggressively pursue in free agency (I don't want the stigma of the tag and the $11.5m amount as the starting point for our renegotiations).

We lost our stopgap DB chemistry leader - I may need to rabbit/hat this one.

...more to come, file up to start of draft by lunchtime here.

[johnnyshaka]

Loading up, I'll have a quick look at the draft and post some thoughts.

[QuikSand]

I arbitrarily run through the first 15 picks of the draft, to get us to a point where we might conceivably want to move up - though I don't have anyone targeted. (There's an uber TE, and another really good affinity center, but no strong feelings here)

1. Kansas City - Criblez, Glenn, RB, South Carolina
2. Carolina - Foreman, Vinny, S, Wisconsin
3. Houston - Rhodes, Ken, QB, Ohio State
4. Buffalo - Griffin, Elias, T, South Carolina
5. Miami - McQuaig, Cody, OLB, Kentucky
6. Jacksonville - Sharpton, Colton, RB, Oregon
7. Cincinnati - Jacoby, Theodore, QB, Southern California
8. Baltimore - Heath, Herman, DT, Johnson C. Smith
9. New Orleans - Torricelli, Mason, ILB, Oklahoma
10. Tennessee - Ross, Clifton, S, Nicholls State
11. Oakland - Wilson, J.B., WR, Kentucky
12. Arizona - Head, Vince, DT, Arizona
13. Tampa Bay - Dotson, Scott, OLB, Miami, Florida
14. Washington - Cooper, Nolan, S, Army
15. Detroit - Schwartz, Bruce, CB, Houston

Here's the updated file:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/vk8qvmtmt16b7h1/groupthk%20-%202019%20draft%20underway.zip?dl=0

[QuikSand]

To the extent anyone gives a rat's ass, our DB leader is going to be the stiff LB Bernier - but he can't move to safety until I trim him down during camp. He's an 11th year guy, though, so we likely don't get to build around him forever (like we sort of do with LB Harding along the D7).

So, you won't see it in game, but among DBs, we would have:

Affinities: 8/24-9/23, 11/13-12/22
Conflict: 12/23-1/20

[johnnyshaka]

DE Nicholas Doyle - 4.55 dash and well developed.

[johnnyshaka]

OLB Scott Dotson - No combine and As Scouted with big bars all over the place

[QuikSand]

FYI, the link in post #434 has been updated - it's now correct, I think, and updated through the mid-first round. The older file would give you the ability to do rookie interviews, if you were so inclined.

[johnnyshaka]

RB Adrian Wayne - Could be a nice back to spell our stud from time to time.

[QuikSand]

As far as impact players - what are our major needs at this point? Maybe another DB - a stud safety might be nice, or I could always go for a top drawer CB. Maybe depth at WR? RDE? RDT?

[johnnyshaka]

We could probably use a solid coverage LB and more depth in the secondary. And backup QB is going to be a big need seeing how fragile Adachi is. Guard could use an upgrade, too.

[johnnyshaka]

OLB Dana Reinert - Nice combine with some decent coverage bars but shows as VO. Like the ST bar, too.

[johnnyshaka]

FL Everett Jolie - Big bars with a decent enough combine and a potential masked pair.

[johnnyshaka]

CB Mitch Turpin - great combine and could be our next big deal at CB or at least a shutdown nickel guy

[johnnyshaka]

FS Ernie Corbett - could be a great free safety but no run stuffing skills whatsoever

[johnnyshaka]

G Everett Young - All the makings of a solid guard.

[MalcPow]

I am here and will download in a bit. Keep the names coming.

[johnnyshaka]

QB Preston Wolin - VU with 48 INTEL

[johnnyshaka]

TE Peyton Hopson - If he slides some he could be a nice find with the big static bars.

Sorry for all the posts but didn't want to leave one post open and then have to run abruptly and not be able to get the names out in a timely manner.

[johnnyshaka]

SS Jordan Hickman - Mid to late rounder with nice PS and could be decent depth.

FS Ernie Corbett - Nice ST bar with a combine that should see the bars stay close to what we see.

[MalcPow]

Probably going to be light on commentary and screenshots today.

Here's the file: https://www.dropbox.com/s/v6a95k8t5jnymja/groupthk_140916_End19Draft.zip?dl=0

I tried to integrate proposed guys with some of our more general needs. Kind of took a shot at finding another safety for us. I do think that's a need. We'll see what we have. Will post screenies for tracking if some time opens up.

[QuikSand]

hmmm... not sure the file is updated past the last one, though I may just be erring on my end.

[johnnyshaka]

Not working for me either.

[MalcPow]

Should be fixed now.

[johnnyshaka]

Interesting that WR Duran is 30/56 and only 5% developed. Nice.

[QuikSand]

FS Ernie Corbett - could be a great free safety but no run stuffing skills whatsoever

I am going to at least give him a look at RCB - he is very underdeveloped, but does have some legit bump skills.

[QuikSand]

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Way, Kerry Cleveland RCB -13
Bellucci, Rufus Cleveland FL -9
Giles, Roderick Cleveland RB -9
Godfrey, Brantley Cleveland LCB -8
Rayburn, Don Cleveland SE -7
Feret, Omar Cleveland RCB -6
Park, Jack Cleveland RDT -5
Blair, Eugene Cleveland TE -5
Foster, Jon Cleveland QB -4
Walker, Lance Cleveland TE -4


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
Wyoming, Kim Cleveland FS 20
Kelley, Herb Cleveland RDE 14
Rose, Paxton Cleveland SE 13
Young, Everett Cleveland RG 12
Lowe, Jacob Cleveland RCB 7
Duran, Dusty Cleveland FL 6
Ramsey, Jimmy Cleveland LT 4
Bensen, Elliot Cleveland LDE 3
Hampton, Hayden Cleveland FB 3
Dole, Les Cleveland LDE 3


Holy snot.

[QuikSand]

By the way...3hrs in the training room this season. Injuries still at 100. We'll see.

[QuikSand]

Front Office Football: The Seventh Edition
2019 Summary for Cleveland Maroons

Year 2019
Record 11-6
Winning Pct. .647
All-Time 50-62
Winning Pct. .446
Playoffs 1-4
Playoff Visits 4
Bowl Wins 0
Head Coach Joe DeCamillis
Record 44-25
Winning Pct. .637
Off. Coord. T. Steinberg
Def. Coord. T. Gilmore
Asst. Coach O. West
Stren. Coord. B. Chandler

Cleveland Maroons Team Rank
Rushes per Game 29.2 11
Rushing Yards 149.1 4
Yards Per Carry 5.11 3
Pass Attempts 36.8 11 (T)
Completions 23.0 8 (T)
Completion Pct. 62.5 11
Passing Yards 278.1 2
Yards Per Attempt 7.55 3
Yards Per Catch 12.09 3
Total Yardage Gained 417.6 2
3rd Down Conversions 42.4 2
Points Per Game 27.3 2
Pass Rush Pct. 22.8 7 (T)
Pass Defense Pct. 49.5 20
Turnovers 27 25 (T)
Turnover Margin +3 12

Opponents Team Rank
Rushes per Game 23.5 5
Rushing Yards 99.3 6
Yards Per Carry 4.23 11
Pass Attempts 35.9 18
Completions 22.1 23
Completion Pct. 61.7 24
Passing Yards 245.6 24
Yards Per Attempt 6.85 23
Yards Per Catch 11.10 22
Total Yardage Gained 326.0 14
3rd Down Conversions 36.2 20
Points Per Game 20.3 20 (T)
Pass Rush Pct. 20.2 17
Pass Defense Pct. 51.9 17
Turnovers 30 1

Week Team Versus Oppnt
1 20 at BAL 27
2 38 at SFO 20
3 41 DEN 21
4 24 at BUF 19
5 38 PIT 26
6 41 MIA 10
7 20 NJY 13
8 11 at NED 30
9 21 BAL 24
11 31 at CIN 13
12 27 at STL 21
13 10 at IND 24
14 27 SEA 16
15 27 CIN 5
16 29 ARI 32
17 31 at PIT 24
$$WC 24 at IND 27

Passing Pos Att Comp Yards Y/Att TD Int Rate
1 D. Adachi QB 568 357 4362 7.68 30 17 91.5
**Team --- 589 368 4449 7.55 31 18 90.4
$$Opp --- 574 354 3930 6.85 22 13 85.3

Front Office Football: The Seventh Edition
Rushing Pos Att Yards Y/Att TD Fum
36 O. Fredrickson RB 328 1680 5.12 12 3
1 D. Adachi QB 53 334 6.30 3 2
35 M. Foreman RB 48 187 3.90 2 0
**Team --- 467 2386 5.11 17 13
$$Opp --- 376 1589 4.23 10 30

Receiving Pos Targ Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop TD
8 F. Flynn WR 140 83 1125 13.55 8.04 7 11
36 O. Fredrickson RB 85 67 705 10.52 8.29 1 4
87 A. Preimsberg TE 89 63 677 10.75 7.61 2 5
89 J. Shields WR 95 48 668 13.92 7.03 5 4
80 B. Farrior WR 69 39 454 11.64 6.58 6 2
3 R. Reilly WR 54 26 353 13.58 6.54 3 4
33 H. Hampton FB 31 25 242 9.68 7.81 0 0

Defense Pos Tack Asst Sack Hurr Ints Defn PDPct
50 D. Patton ILB 100 25 3.0 3 1 7 78.0
38 B. McNeil S 90 36 0.5 2 6 5 82.5
45 B. Ehlert OLB 55 17 2.5 1 0 4 73.2
23 J. Lowe CB 55 9 0.0 0 3 21 83.1
49 K. Wyoming S 55 20 0.5 2 3 4 79.5
40 B. Godfrey CB 53 14 0.0 0 0 8 75.9
29 E. Corbett CB 52 12 0.0 0 0 6 72.2
95 L. Dole DE 41 16 11.0 22 0 0 81.2
30 D. Heimburger S 36 9 0.0 0 0 1 67.0
98 W. Shea DT 33 13 8.5 13 0 1 82.2
57 L. Abdullah OLB 30 11 1.5 1 0 2 74.7
92 J. Park DT 27 10 2.0 3 0 0 81.3
96 B. Danek DT 25 8 3.5 8 0 0 79.6
91 S. Walters DE 20 12 5.0 10 0 0 80.9
90 K. Hodges DE 16 1 5.0 8 0 0 81.4 

[QuikSand]

So, bottom line - there's really not much point to this, right? The real thing the Group needs to be Thinking about is this relentless wave of draft geniuses we have selected, and try to better understand what's going on there.

The big challenges ahead are basically deciding which 65/65 guys we re-sign, and which 50/50 guys we simply replace with the infinite supply of others like them in every round of the draft.

Well done, sir.

[Julio Riddols]

There's that strong O and killer run game.

[QuikSand]

...oh, and I did have to reset depth charts pretty nearly every week. Not as awful as last year, but lots of guys dropping out.

[johnnyshaka]

Not sure why our defense is so bad? Or are teams putting up yards and points in garbage time?

[QuikSand]

Dropbox - groupthk - 2019 end.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/8k78k6egrjabiqj/groupthk%20-%202019%20end.zip?dl=0)

[johnnyshaka]

Dropbox - groupthk - 2019 end.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/8k78k6egrjabiqj/groupthk%20-%202019%20end.zip?dl=0)

Uploading...

[QuikSand]

seems to be complete, and working here...hope it's resolved...

[johnnyshaka]

Good now, thanks.

[johnnyshaka]

So, looks like we got beat deep with regularity and didn't do the best job shutting down the underneath stuff. So, to me, that suggests we need a good cover SLB to keep the RB/TE stuff in check and perhaps the new FS will help with the deep stuff going forward. CB depth could be better, though.

And we could probably use another run-stuffing DT.

How about that Dallas team with the highest scoring offense and 2nd stingiest defense...15-1 through the regular season and then one and done in a blowout at home. Ouch.

[johnnyshaka]

Haha...our stud kicker missed 40% of his kicks this season!

[Julio Riddols]

It doesn't help that 3 of our CB's dived in ratings last year. I think we have one good one though. And I'm coming very close to believing that kickers are totally interchangeable. I don;t know that I will ever pay more than minsal for one the way I have been seeing things go.

[Julio Riddols]

Punters though, they're worth investing in.

[QuikSand]

2020 offseason notes:

-CB Kerry Way retired - had dropped in ratings, but was one of those good-enough guys who got a solid run with us until even more genius-y picks started showing up

-no franchise has any interest in taking us on, still (FOOLS)

-we have a new OC (by choice) and Asst (ours hired away)

-stadium expansion should put us in better shape for staff drafts to come

-I decide not to tag T Linquist at $10m... but I do decide to lock up RB Fredrickson short term (also about $10m), as he seems like an important piece for a team that is in "win now" mode as we had better damned well be

-The file at FA 1:2 is below - for anyone paying any attention at this point, the RB/WR chem leaders are accurate, but the rest of the groups are unsettled. I likely am out of gas trying to patch this stuff up for this career, so no need to follow it.

FILE
Dropbox - groupthk - 2020 start FA.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/a168a6cxcujzpge/groupthk%20-%202020%20start%20FA.zip?dl=0)

[QuikSand]

The big challenges ahead are basically deciding which 65/65 guys we re-sign, and which 50/50 guys we simply replace with the infinite supply of others like them in every round of the draft.

So, in all seriousness.. this was a min-rant, only about half serious.

But there's one kernel I want to pull from this, making itself really clear in this career. With MP drafting, we clearly can just grab playable 40/40+ guys at most positions any time we want. If you play solo FOF without serious house rules, that's basically true too (via free agency).

I will confess that while I don't have any sort of history drafting like MP... I do get a lot of mileage out of a different breed of guy. And in FOF 7 there might be a subtle premium on guys like this.

CB Omar Feret is the shape of guy I'm thinking about - maybe if he were just one click better. But a guy who does not really boom up to 48/48 looks useless in the game, and is likely to re-sign for peanuts unless he got a lot of playing time.

Comparing two late-round picks at CB... the typical MP guy is going to run his rating from 19/28 up to 46/46 by the end of his rookie contract, gets significant playing time, and then he's going to want a $4m/yr contract to stick around. The typical QS guy is going to show up with one or two usable skills (this guy is perfect - some zone, some special teams) and an affinity. The QB guy is going to wrap a rookie contract having played a bit here and there as a CB4 or so, and with his final rating of only 26/26 is going to likely be a minsal guy or pretty close to it. It's certainly possible that a serious team discards that better MP guy after 4 years actually gets *less* out of its better player than the team who drafts the QB guy and keeps him on the team for 10 years of depth, sparse on-field contributions (with a little skill and eventual cohesion), and affinity.

I make no claim that my approach is better. I do it because I don't understand stuff well enough to do it his way. But I think there are some subtle merits to having a "good fit" guy that you can keep around for a decade due to nobody else giving a damn.

[MalcPow]

Very well said. I lean pretty strongly toward agreeing with you. I don't think it's a strong play to give snaps to developing these guys who are going to get too expensive for their role as soon as they reach full positional experience. I should probably adjust accordingly.

[QuikSand]

In free agency, I make what I think is a strong offer to our LT, but he bolts for a monster offer elsewhere. Hang that one on me if need be.

Here's a file at the start of the draft, take it way if you all are so inclined.

Dropbox - groupthk - 2020 start draft.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/ttz44phg4lf5vb2/groupthk%20-%202020%20start%20draft.zip?dl=0)

[Pyser]

quik kinda touched on it, but what are we really learning about drafting when the late rounds are run, with fairly little input, by the best drafter known to the game?

seems this challenge would be more...challenging...if it wasnt so easy to coast on MP's amazing late round drafting.

i am enjoying the first round debates, though, fwiw.

[MalcPow]

Yeah, I've been mostly trying to offer tips/observations as a way to give insight into some of the things that help my process. The challenge aspect has been second to that for me, but, certainly for the last draft, my "take things over" approach might not really be yielding much other than good selections. I'll take a step back for this one and give others the space to do more debating and sharing.

I'm not sure I've got much else to offer other than:

1) Look to the raw grade.
2) Look to the bars.
3) Look at the bars and grade relative to some of the combine thresholds to get a sense for what may be real, fake, or just weird.
4) [inaudible]
5) Profit.

[johnnyshaka]

I think I'm more like QS in that I tend to find guys that I think will fit what I need and sometimes that means I'll sacrifice some overall rating to do so.

With that said, if I could draft like MP does, maybe I'd be singing a different tune...lol!

I'm going to have a look the draft class and post my thoughts later on.

[zbuckley]

Just read this thread start to finish. Fantastic work in here and Thanks MP for sharing your thoughts on the drafting process in the new game. It's hilarious looking at your first two points for drafting players, that wouldn't have worked so well in 2k7 :lol:

[zbuckley]

as different as the drafting process is the player contract model is even more challenging now. I think how you guys adjust once all these rookie contracts end is going to be extremely valuable. You can't keep the MP 4-7 round gems any more and it's certainly debatable if you're better off with the situational affinity player instead of the mid 40s who wants way too much money.

[johnnyshaka]

I'm going to have a look the draft class and post my thoughts later on.

Got sidetracked last night so I'll try and have a look today.

[Pyser]

one more thought i dont know where else to put:

does anyone else find ilb's criminally hard to find in the draft? i feel like it's a carryover from fof2k7, where most of the time i'd have to move an outside guy inside...but to me there's usually about 5, max, draftable ilb's in every single draft. no idea why.

[aston217]

That's a great point, Psyer. In almost every FOF2k7 draft I can remember, I'd finish going through the list of MLBs and think, "What?! That's it? Well, that sucks."

I'd also end up having to move a lot of OLBs inside.

[Ben E Lou]

That's primarily a multi-player issue. FOF generates ILBs assuming most of the league plays a 4-3. On average, there are around 60 DTs, 36 ILBs, and 60 OLBs per draft class. Everything we know about FOF's draftee creation model indicates that the dice are rolled independently for each player to determine his talent level, so if you only have 36 ILBs and 60 DTs/OLBs in a class, you're going to get more talented OLBs and DTs. But significantly more people play the 3-4 in MP than FOF expects, thus the dearth of ILB talent relative to the need.

[Ben E Lou]

This year's WOOF class, for example:

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><th>count</th><th>position_group</th></tr> <tr> <td>58</td><td>QB</td></tr> <tr> <td>57</td><td>RB</td></tr> <tr> <td>35</td><td>FB</td></tr> <tr> <td>42</td><td>TE</td></tr> <tr> <td>81</td><td>WR</td></tr> <tr> <td>23</td><td>C</td></tr> <tr> <td>57</td><td>G</td></tr> <tr> <td>58</td><td>T</td></tr> <tr> <td>22</td><td>P</td></tr> <tr> <td>23</td><td>K</td></tr> <tr> <td>58</td><td>DE</td></tr> <tr> <td>57</td><td>DT</td></tr> <tr> <td>35</td><td>ILB</td></tr> <tr> <td>57</td><td>OLB</td></tr> <tr> <td>69</td><td>CB</td></tr> <tr> <td>56</td><td>S</td></tr> <tr> <td>14</td><td>LS</td></tr></tbody></table>

[aston217]

That makes so much sense, it just might explain it. ;)

[QuikSand]

Is there any serious harm moving OLBs inside? Seems so seamless to do, I barely acknowledge the labels as different, other than with very rare heavy/light guys.

[Ben E Lou]

Is there any serious harm moving OLBs inside? Seems so seamless to do, I barely acknowledge the labels as different, other than with very rare heavy/light guys.Not that I've been able to notice. I mean, I suppose it's possible that there's some "position-switched guys don't live up to their potential" code, but with all the other variables involved in FOF, if so, I suppose we'd never know.

[Pyser]

interesting analysis, thanks

[crusher78]

Training camp movement:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name Team Pos Change
Freeman, Wade Cleveland RB -2
Sevcik, Winfred Cleveland RG -2
Rice, Nate Cleveland LDE -2
Giles, Roderick Cleveland RB -2
Foreman, Maxwell Cleveland RB -1
Godfrey, Brantley Cleveland LCB 0
McNeil, Blaine Cleveland SS 0
Park, Jack Cleveland RDT 0
Russell, Francisco Cleveland QB 0
Witt, Jason Cleveland FS 0


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name Team Pos Change
Hodges, Kaiden Cleveland RDE 5
Griffith, Lenny Cleveland SS 4
Walters, Santiago Cleveland LDE 3
Sperr, Lawrence Cleveland MLB 2
Gibson, Donnell Cleveland QB 2
Buchanan, Irv Cleveland C 1
Mattocks, Bucky Cleveland RG 1
Adachi, Dustin Cleveland QB 1
Levine, Nick Cleveland RB 1
Fredrickson, Oliver Cleveland RB 1

Where can I find the Busts & Breakouts report?

[QuikSand]

Where can I find the Busts & Breakouts report?
In the old (obsolete perhaps) version of ChangeTracker... might be locatable via a search on this site.

[QuikSand]

Try here:
Change_Tracker Updated to Version 1.2 1/13/2K5! - Front Office Football Central (www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=34488)

[crusher78]

Try here:
Change_Tracker Updated to Version 1.2 1/13/2K5! - Front Office Football Central (www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=34488)

Thanks! Appreciate it.

[crusher78]

OK... I hate to post this...but I've got a Newb question. Where do I need to save the Groupthink files so that FOF7 can find it. Thanks!

[garion333]

I feel like this thread turned into a drafting thread about getting studs. We probably shouldn't have kept trading up in the 1st or into the 1st to get sure fire studs. Mid to low 1st round is harder to draft in than the top of the 1st.

That said, what I think we're really missing in this discussion is tracking the guys whose ratings go up and down and all around.

Eh, so Reilly kind of settled instead of popping. I am guessing that means that route running bar doesn't really get too far. I think that's still ok. I think he's still a better player than Flynn, even if our scouts seem to like them the same now.

Really good to see T Peter Linquist hold his pop from last year and stick at a 77 future. Conversely, as great as it was when S Blaine McNeil popped last year, he gave -8 back this year. Those are the sorts of development stories I hope we hone in on over time.

We'll definitely be rooting for the alternative kind of correction from Adachi after a -11 in his first preseason. It's still awesome if he's a 69 future QB. I just hope he wobbles back the other way instead of sliding downward again obviously.

I also think Reilly and Shields will be fine. They'll probably bounce back.... hopefully.

Also, I'm curious about Adachi. He seems an okay QB, not a great one. Where could he be better? Did we see that based on his combines/bars? Etc.

FYI: I have yet to pull the file down, hypocritical I know, but it took me days to read through the whole thread. :p

[aston217]

OK... I hate to post this...but I've got a Newb question. Where do I need to save the Groupthink files so that FOF7 can find it. Thanks!

If you're on Windows 7 and probably later, it'll be under Users\yourusername\AppData\Roaming\Solecismic Software\Front Office Football 7\universe.

[crusher78]

As far as player development goes, how do pre-season games factor in. I assume that rookies and young players would reach their development sooner (good or bad) with additional playing time during the pre-season. How do others manage their 60 man rosters during the pre-season. Do you rotate the inactives between rookies and veterans from game to game? Get the rookies active for the early games, then get the veterans into games later during pre-season to got of the rust?

[crusher78]

If you're on Windows 7 and probably later, it'll be under Users\yourusername\AppData\Roaming\Solecismic Software\Front Office Football 7\universe.

Thanks!

[Ben E Lou]

As far as player development goes, how do pre-season games factor in. I assume that rookies and young players would reach their development sooner (good or bad) with additional playing time during the pre-season. How do others manage their 60 man rosters during the pre-season. Do you rotate the inactives between rookies and veterans from game to game? Get the rookies active for the early games, then get the veterans into games later during pre-season to got of the rust?Most players require roughly 1.5 full games to remove all of the rust. In SP, just in the interest of moving things along, I use the default settings (60% first half and 15% second half, I think), and that usually gets 45 of my 46 players (the #3 QB being the exception) pretty much rust-free.

In MP, where things move more slowly and I'm more competitive, I play rookies who are expected to contribute this season as much as possible. And yes, the more they play, the more they develop.

[aston217]

I accept a little bit of rust from my veterans. It's only one game, and I've got a) rookies to develop, and b) injuries to avoid.

So I'll play them in the first game (and with only 60 on the roster, it's unavoidable that some of them will get playing time anyways throughout). From there on out, it's usually the rookies / guys I don't mind getting hurt getting all the time they can.

Big caveat: if a guy is on a 2+ year deal, you can't cut him if he's injured. And you can't IR guys unless they are 'Doubtful' or worse. So if a roster bubble guy sprains his thumb in Exhibition 5, he is stuck on your regular season roster unless he's on a 1-year deal. It's pretty annoying, but unfortunately, something you have to live with hoping to avoid.