FOF7 GroupThink Project

[MalcPow]

I'm just introducing this as a concept for now, and we can get cranked up with an appropriate universe or situation in the coming days. For context, in other iterations of the game the community would occasionally band together to play a sort of collaborative career with a focus on sharing ideas and possibly learning a thing or two. Many of the usual characters would engage or take an interest, and I'm hoping we can stir up something similar here. Files from each progression of a single-player career are posted in the thread, and everyone can follow along by updating to the latest stage and checking things out in their own game (or just following along in the thread). I will happily cede control over the general advancement of things to someone with a slightly better track record of attention, care, and large, meathook hands, but for now, let's figure out what we'd want to accomplish.

Potential areas of deeper discussion, in no particular order:

-The Draft
-General Roster Construction
-Scouting and Player Rating Progression Observations
-Gameplanning?
-Other stuff?

My intuition is that a career where we move relatively quickly through the simming games portion of things and focus on evaluating and following drafted players would be pretty interesting for most of us. I also tend to think that an empty cupboard roster situation is a good way to capture our attention and create some early investment in the group of players we're watching. It may also make sense for us to commit early to some philosophical choices about the type of offense or defense we want to run, if for no other reason than to give us all a shared vision of what we might be doing.

I'll open it up to thoughts there. Are there other things we should take a look at? Are there advantages to keeping our goals a bit more narrow?

-------------

Initial File: Dropbox - groupthk_start_140909.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/rfbqskqfmk8l0zf/groupthk_start_140909.zip?dl=0)

Pre-Draft File: Dropbox - groupthk_140910_predraft2014.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/ojaifjeszxqszks/groupthk_140910_predraft2014.zip?dl=0)

Latest File: Dropbox - groupthk_140916_End19Draft.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/v6a95k8t5jnymja/groupthk_140916_End19Draft.zip?dl=0)

[QuikSand]

I would be interested, and willing to contribute anywhere. I think "roster construction" is likely my strongest suit, but I'll either take one role or else join a generalized pool.

[Olsson]

I would probably contribute here and there, but probably won't be a regular poster.

I definately like the idea :-)

[Yoda]

I'd be up for some data mining.

[MalcPow]

Cool. I will put together an empty cupboard start where we have a bunch of draft picks and post stuff later today. I will probably pick a random sadsack NFL franchise unless someone burns this place to the ground with some hot fire reasons to play as a specific team.

[MalcPow]

Ok... I simmed a random universe file through a season (with a fair amount of trading shenanigans) to give us a base to start this thing. Try unzipping the attached file into your AppData/Roaming/Sole.../Front.../universe folder and see if you can open things up. The whole "groupthk" folder should be placed there. I'm not sure if people will need anything else, so go ahead and speak up if you're not able to open things up as an SP career.

We start with a good number of picks for this first draft, but hopefully not too many. We also have an empty roster and we're sitting at the first stage of FA1. I'm open to discussing any house rules that people would like to enact at this point. I'm not opposed to us looking to sign some position leaders or other "fits" to give us some kind of base to work from before the draft. We've got the 1.3, and four other 1st rounders, so thinking about guys we want to interview makes sense as well.

First things first, can you guys open the league with what's in the zip?

**I'm having trouble attaching to the post, give this dropbox link a try for now: Dropbox - groupthk_start_140909.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/rfbqskqfmk8l0zf/groupthk_start_140909.zip?dl=0)

[RGVicedo]

I'm in too (sounds like fun!)

Be sure to create a folder in the league data directory called "groupthk" in order to export Personal Scouting Data

The Browns coaching staff has an average scouting ability of 40.75 :popcorn:

[MalcPow]

Some quick screenies of the top of the draft class we'll be digging into.

First, sorted by Adjusted Grade:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/673/zmDmuc.png

And then sorted by Raw Bureau Grade:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/913/Zbnieo.png

I'll spend more time walking through drafting ideas as we go through this career, but I wanted to highlight the straight Raw Bureau Grade sort as a good reality check that a lot of us got away from in the 2k7 version of the game. Combine scores were often an extremely accurate way to distinguish between players in those days. Now that things are a little less clear, I weight the raw grade pretty heavily when I'm trying to figure out what kind of player a guy might be.

This is actually a kind of crappy class by that check, especially with us sitting here holding the 1.3 pick. Punter Steve Wanat is probably the best player in the draft, with an 8.3 Grade that makes him a likely 80+ type player. QB Levon Strong stands out on the Adjusted rankings, but a 6.5 QB is the kind of guy you see in almost every draft. (The last IHOF draft had 3 QBs in the 6.3 to 6.6 range.) Strong is almost definitely a good solid starter, and his bars and combines would back that up as well. But we're not really getting any information right now that should make us believe he is a superstar.

He's also probably going 1.1 anyway, but we should almost definitely see what an interview has to say. Extending the raw grade logic even further... we're looking at a pretty shaky QB class behind Strong. We'll probably dig in with more detail in a future post, since finding a QB is kind of a big deal, but a quick scan shows a crop of guys with not great bars, some scary or weird combines, a just ok raw grade, or all of the above. We'll probably burn most of our interviews here and hope to get lucky.

[aston217]

Three QBs in the 6.3 to 6.6 "grade" and not "adjusted" grade? A 7.4 adjusted grade is pretty high, albeit not conclusive for a QB.

However, this QB also has a number of extremely good combine scores (though not in bench, broad jump, or PSPEC) and is only 18% developed. Which tells me that his grade should be even higher, he's just discounted for the low development. I feel he ought to be interviewed, but there's only 12 so it's tough.

That OG Zorich stands out to be with red scores in dash and agility (as well as strength), while being only 26% developed with a 6.5 adjusted grade. Further down the list, OG Deion Montes falls much in the same category, just with a 5.7 adj grade and 27%. Seems like you could wait and potentially still pick up a stud guard.

WR Anthony Wells looks like he's probably the top WR here, although Murphy could also be good. Hard to say without seeing the bars. If they have super high bars and it's a good scout I'm inclined to believe it. If it's less than that, on Murphy, it would cause me to reconsider.

OT Corbin Bullock certainly looks like a good tackle with a 6.8 grade at only 19% developed. However, my problem with him is that his dash is far better than his agility. Would have to make a guess about where his pass blocking is. If he's an 80/80 tackle with 60 PB, that's not nearly as worth it in my opinion. OT Bob Clinton merits a look, too, probably later in the round.

RBs Benitez and Feusse are guys to watch for. Both have rocking combines (Benitez with edge in sole, Feusse with edge in Broad jump; both are important). They're both on the lower side for development in RBs, Feusse more so, and have identical 6.6 grades.

DE Alan Rhoden looks like another Top 10 pick, but he'd have to have really high bars everywhere, because with that combine he could also be a fairly flawed player / average pass rusher.

Lastly, QB Phillip Kandel interests me. His combines are good, and 28 sole is lower, but fine. He might not be an option at 1.3, but depending on his bar profile / interview result could definitely be one of the other 1st round selections in hopes of landing a franchise QB.

In summary, in my eyes without the bars:

1.3
1. RB Gage Feusse
1a. RB Henry Benitez
3. QB Levon Strong
4. WR Anthony Wells
5. OG Mateo Zorich

[MalcPow]

Good thoughts. I'll be curious to see if downloading the file and getting a look at any of the bars changes your rankings or brings any new players into the conversation. I'll probably post a few more impressions later as well. My guess is that QB Strong is going to top my pref list, even with some of the caveats mentioned above. I think there's already enough there to feel pretty confident that he's a 50-70 player or something, with an interview probably pointing us toward the high or the low end. I'm just pretty sure he's not the kind of guy who is better than that. Probably still very worthy of a 1.1 pick with the value of QBs, but just trying to make my best guess at what he is.

That probably opens up a little bit of a roster construction discussion. I'm pretty sure we're not gonna grab the punter if we miss out on Strong. How do we value WR, CB, DE, OL, or any particular position in the new game? Should we be taking shots at getting good players at certain positions even if there's some risk of missing as we move through the draft? Or should we load up on some no brainer good or very good Gs, TEs, and LBs if that's what's there? We've got a blank slate. Some decisions will probably be made for us, but how would we want to build things if we had our druthers?

[Julio Riddols]

A good OL and a killer RB can be the basis of an outstanding offense. Just look at the Cheetahs of WOOF. Imagine that team with a QB even remotely close to average.

[MalcPow]

Worth noting that RB Henry Benitez is a Red Flag guy.

[MalcPow]

My first pass at the top of the draft narrowed things down to the group below for me for early consideration. (Sorted by position and not in any ranked order.)

QB Levon Strong
RB Gage Feusse
RB Drew Kurogi
SE Anthony Wells
SE Brody Murphy
LT Corbin Bullock
LT Peter Linquist
RG Mateo Zorich
LDE Damian Pulley
RDE Les Dole
RCB Dan Newsome
SS Brantley Godfrey

There aren't a lot of controversial choices there. It's basically the draft's top rated consensus players. I won't really let us take a guard at 1.3, but Zorich looks like a good player. WR Anthony Wells is probably the weirdest of the bunch, with a good grade, monster combines, and a set of bars that don't fit with those other pieces of information. His very low endurance scares me and a guy with those combines should have monster bars or at least a profile that looks masked. I'm going to struggle to articulate that, but I would expect the version of Wells who matched his combines to look mostly flat in his ratings (other than maybe a high BPR no matter what), even if they were muted downward. And I really wouldn't expect him to have an Endurance bar that was masked more than everything else like we're seeing here. Wells's bars are probably who he actually is, which might not be so bad really for another part of the draft, and his combines are just a smokescreen. If we wanted to go WR early, I'd rather go Murphy. All that said, I feel like the AI could give two craps about WRs in SP, and they seem to routinely slip later than I'd expect.

[Julio Riddols]

Getting the file now so I can dive deeper with ya.

[Julio Riddols]

Scouting the FA class before I look at the draft.

I think strong consideration has to be given to signing 34/45 6th year QB LeVar Bishop. His sense rush is 83, his accuracy is 80/96, and his two minute offense is way up there. I think he has potential as a starter. If he isn't looking for a boatload of cash (although he might be, considering he started 16 games last season..) then I think he deserves heavy consideration. No other FA QB strikes me as a potential long term starter.

RB Trenton Meadows is probably a solid guy to target as a RB 2/3. His special teams skills alone merit a look.

RB Shaun Jeffries is another guy with multiple applications who could make a strong addition. He should come cheap with only 2 carries last season. He has return skills on kicks and punts, picks up the blitz like a boss, and can play ST as well. I think he is a must grab, honestly. Perfect candidate for a cheap 3 year deal who can play a significant role and make an impact that is worth more than what he is paid.

RB Lance Davis strikes me as a potential starter, but his salary demands will probably be an issue. He has bars that make me think he doesn't usually fumble every 30 carries or so like he did last season.

FB Wes Clayton is an obvious guy to look at. Might be pricey though. Blocks like an O-lineman, catches everything thrown his way.

FB Melvin Quinn might be a decent second option in the absence of Clayton.

TE Hunter Moss might be a cheap add, and looks like he has room to grow. I don't really get a good vibe from the rest of the available TE's, they mostly seem like they will come with a prohibitive price tag. Moss only played a couple hundred plays last year. He probably won't steal many targets but I think he can do something with them. Wouldn't put a lot of years on a deal for him though, maybe a one or two year evaluation deal to get a feel for his development direction.

If you wanna blow big money on any one offensive guy, I think you go with WR Melvin Duncan.

SE Greg Bach might also be worth a look, depending on his asking price.

SE Norman Madison is interesting. His bars moved all over the place last year.

SE Griffin Tyson is a ST stud. Should come cheap.

Likewise for Leo Regalia, who also doubles as a mentor.

There are good Centers out there, but almost all of the good ones also started 16 games.

LG Bobby Nelson might come cheap. He only started 7 games. Good technique for RB and PB, but not a mauler. Also a mentor.

LG Donald Rogers is another guy to look at. Might not cost much at all, he played 29 regular season snaps last year. Starting caliber bars.

RT Andrew May is a young guy who might be worth a test deal.

RT Eddie Razor is a potential mentor.

I wonder how much P Duane Waits wants.

Lots of good K prospects out there too.

LDE Jordan Roberson is a guy I would want on my roster to see if he stays on the development path he started on. I doubt he will, but his PT was minimal, so maybe he comes cheap.

NT Harvey Bickler is highly recommended. Didn't see the field last season, looks like one of those guys that scouts have a good idea about.

MLB Russell Danielson for ST

MLB Derrick Geiger has to be on the radar for a switch to WLB if you want to run a 3-4. He only played 28 downs, his PRT is 100, his PRS is 68, and his ST is 100. Could be outstanding value if he isn't asking much.

WLB Darryl Flowers is a mentor with great zone coverage skills who has incredible special teams skills as well. He could make a solid SLB. PLayed quite a bit though, might be looking to get paid.

Overall, lots of solid OLB depth in FA. probably could find a couple guys there if none fall to value spots in the draft.

CB Francisco Meadows could be a strong nickel or even start if necessary.

CB Junior Staton as a possible cheap mentor.

SS Steven Parise might be a fairly cheap stop gap type.

FS Peter Andersen has a very high personality, might make a nice pairing with a position leader he meshes with. He can also play ST.

Next I'll look at the draft class.

[Julio Riddols]

I think you have to scout Levon Strong for sure. If he is anything like his bars suggest, he is well worth the top pick. I feel like the CPU will grab him with one of the top 2 picks though. Probably better not taking him.

Dennis Turner is intriguing at QB as well.

I think the decision at QB is ultimately better left for another year though. The FA LeVar Bishop could be the best solution.

RB Feusse looks like a freak, but I think wasting a high pick on a RB would be short sighted when it may be a few years before the team even becomes competitive. If he fell to 1.22 or 1.24 though and no other studs were there... I think Kurogi is also solid, despite not being what the other top RB's might be.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if FB Hayden Hampton could carry the load as a conversion to RB. Maybe he is available in the second?

Might want to scout TE Ariel Preimsburg. Wanna know where his intelligence sits. Might be able to get him with either 3.14 or even 4.1

Gotta scout Anthony Wells at WR. if he has low intelligence, I suspect he is a great choice if he falls to 1.3

Josue Shields is another WR I would look at closely. Could be a steal as a second rounder or early third rounder.

SE Steve Glover might be there in the later rounds as a good value pick.

C is terrible, I don't think I would even consider one before round 6.

A lot to like about Mateo Zorich at G

RG Brad Kramer is a possible sleeper for the late rounds.

Lots of T depth, I think you let FA dictate how high you start looking for a guy there.

If you can get P Steve Wanat or Myles Meier at 5.1, I think you do it.

Might as well grab an FA kicker or just wait for a UDFA.

Not a real standout at DE, I think you can get a couple good ones in the middle rounds.

I like MLB Kevin Terrell as a mid-late round guy who could possibly start.

OLB Logan Abdullah is also a nice idea for a later round pick. Might be the best OLB in the draft.

CB Dan Newsome looks good. Don't think I would take him til 1.15 though.

Skip Kimsey, Bucky Wayne, Kerry Way are later round considerations.

Chester Hughes.. Don't know what to think of him.

I think my favorite guy in this class aside from the WR is S Brantley Godfrey. Great candidate to move to CB and be a shutdown guy for years. Probably available with 1.3. I think he has to be the number 2 option at 1.3 behind the WR. I think the QB is the number 3 option.

Ivan Coles is no slouch either, but strictly as a Safety. Him at 1.15 would be a steal.

[Julio Riddols]

If I had to map out the first round

1.3 - WR Wells / S Godfrey (Move to CB) / QB Strong
1.15 -G Zorich / RB Feusse / S Coles / T Bullock
1.22 -T Bullock / T Linquist / DE Dole / FB Hampton
1.24 - T Linquist / DE Dole / FB Hampton (Move to RB) / WR Shields

[Olsson]

Gotta scout Anthony Wells at WR. if he has low intelligence, I suspect he is a great choice if he falls to 1.3

Josue Shields is another WR I would look at closely. Could be a steal as a second

Did I miss something?

What would the Intelligence determine?

[Julio Riddols]

Well, if it means the same as it did last version, which I suspect it does since I have yet to hear otherwise, low intelligence plus a high solecismic score for WR is typically indicative of good to great route running skills.

[QuikSand]

I have loaded the file, and will try to get into it today.

I will contribute some thoughts on chemistry guys who could make for a leadership/affinity structure... as is my general wont. I don't insist that we do things this way, but if this is supposed to be a learning experience for all of us, this might shed some light on this sort of thing along with the other (more important) stuff that would generally make sense. My guess is with a start-over roster, we are going to have plenty of dead-ish slots on the roster that we could throw away on ballgagged affinity gimps, if we so choose.

Note - this would be very much helped out if we have a sense of our top pick in the draft fairly soon, as I wouldn't want to build a chem structure around a grouping that is bad for a cornerstone player.

[QuikSand]

...would it be a better learning experience for us to basically do unlimited rookie interviews? We all have the original file, could do our own interviews and reload - post results here. Limiting to 12 increases the challenge, but we don't get to see the interview results from most of the guys we'd end up watching or drafting. I like taking the lid off there.

[QuikSand]

Quick chemistry thought -- quickly, it looks like we could assemble a pretty respectable trio of offensive leaders all in the 9-10 birthdate group. If we spent some money, we could land a very nice looking TE (Sartori, 7th year guy, 67/67) who would be part of this structure and likely a leader for some time.

If we went that way, we could have a chemistry match with any of the very top offensive players I see on the board without any study.

Doing this would also make it pretty easy to mentally filter out offensive conflict -- the only bad sign would be 4/21-5/21 guys.

Details, hope the abbreviations are clear enough:

WR10 Lankford 9-10 70 80
WR9 Shonek 9-10 59 74
OG6 Dexter Sherrod 9-10 84 97
TE7 Sartori 9-10 56 84

FA QB Klaus Hansen would be a 3x affinity here, cheapo vet Lionel Fix also

[QuikSand]

Guys who would be affinity fits within a chemistry structure built on 9-10 leaders:

RB 7th Jeffrey White (38/38) - meh

FB 6th Wes Clayton (67/67) - JR top pick above, weak affinity

WR 9th Irving Rahn (57/57) - not a great bar distribution
WR 10th Christian Kinney (45/45) - downfield threat BPR 81
WR 7th Griffin Tyson (38/38) - PR 74, ST 92 = MUST GET PLAYER
(not much to see here, really)

TE 11th Doug Buckley (49/49) - downfield threat, value older player
TE 9th Desmond Corbett (45/45) - run blocker and ST guy
TE 2nd Garrett Kappers (28/40) - nothing too special

T 13th Jorge McGregor (44/44) - short term solid
T 5th Brantley Swatek (30/41) - solid rotation caliber guy, big affinity
G 7th Patxon Dattillo (48/48) - pass blocker, pretty solid
G 9th Dixon Andre (45/45) - rotation caliber guy, unexciting
C 2nd Marc Summers (30/38) - decent run-first reserve-caliber

In all honestly... if this were a team I were running myself, I'd probably get dejected enough after looking at this FA haul and start to look for another position grouping to build around. But I don't have any expectations that this team is going to be built "the QuikSand way" so a few of these guys seeded in among our uber-rookies and other fill-ins would probably be enough to make my heart happy.

Note (for educational purposes) - I am leaving off some guys here who will show up in-game as affinities, but who will pose chemistry problems (mostly guys who would take the chemistry leadership either immediately or eventually). This is a pretty important part of having a plan here.

[QuikSand]

multi-dola...

I think a plan for going forward would be:

-work today on a plan for free agency, develop a list of targets, and hand the reins to one person to execute (maybe with some commentary here) and post a new file at the top of the draft

-then we work through the draft together - this ought to be collaborative, as this is where many of us really want to immerse, I presume

-then we fill in the roster in late free agency - we'll have something like 10-15 targeted free agents and around 21 draft picks - so this should mostly be position-related (do this in one swoop, similar to early free agency)

-then we sort out who's going to do with with gameplanning, etc

[MalcPow]

Just catching up quickly...

I really like Quik's idea to go with a "learning experience" approach and just let everyone interview as many people as they are interested in, with an eye toward posting and keeping tabs on that information as we progress. So fire away on interviews and reload as necessary.

And I'm completely on board with Quik's outline of a plan going forward. I also think Quik's pretty good at being the guiding hand of these sorts of projects, and I think he's a good candidate to handle a lot of our simming.

I'm going to backtrack and look at some of the guys JR brought up and give my thoughts there as well. I really like the idea of handing Quik a list of our FA targets/general plan and letting him get us advanced to the start of the draft in short order.

[QuikSand]

One thoughts for added realism/challenge (longer term effect if this catches on) - this is a"house rule" that BEL and I both use when playing solo.

-When signing any free agent, we cannot vary the length of his requested contract

So no below-market cheap 3yr deals (mainly that's what this means). Sign him cheap for one year and if he performs, then we'll have to decide whether he's worth actually paying some real money.

[QuikSand]

DT 5th Gene Harding could be an outstanding D7 leader - he's a5th year guy with 92 leadership and 98 personality. He wants to be paid like a starter (about $5m/yr) but would be good enough to start at RDT/NT I think, in the absence of a serious stud there. I'm considering him seriously as a build-around guy for chemistry purposes.

Another option would be DE 9th Troy Pena (88/92). Run-stopper only, might not be heavy enough to move to DT, but would be able to play anywhere on the DL I think. Under $2m/yr, and likely locks in as the D7 leader for the first few years, I'd guess. Probably a better value there - would crowd out fewer cap dollars with my silly chemistry set stuff.

[QuikSand]

D7 affinity targets if we lock up DE Pena (or DE Billy Lucas) as our D7 chemistry leader:

WANTS: 5-6, 10-11 BAD: 1-2

DE 3rd Jordan Roberson (46/60) - MUST GET
DE 8th Joshua McClintock (35/35) - reserve caliber pass rusher
DT 11th Eric Lockett (44/44) - decent but old and weak affinity

ILB 6th Derrick Geiger (54/54) - big pass rusher, ST stud = TARGET
ILB 5th Corbin Gordon (32/32) - cheap rotation guy big affinity
OLB 7th Shawn Grasso (42/42) - coverage guy, mixed bars, i like him
OLB 7th Alan Benson (39/39) - cheap guy, no coverage, meh

[MalcPow]

If we went with QB LeVar Bishop as our de facto starter, would that fit with the affinity structure we're looking at? I do think it's not a bad idea to plan on that.

[MalcPow]

Hmm, actually, reading Quik's post more closely and looking in-game... I like Klaus Hanson about as much as I like Bishop. Might as well go Hanson if he's the triple-affinity.

[QuikSand]

If we went with QB LeVar Bishop as our de facto starter, would that fit with the affinity structure we're looking at? I do think it's not a bad idea to plan on that.

He's neutral, and I think getting the right guy would make that plenty worthwhile, especially in this setup. It's easy enough to fill in with a roster filler here or there if we want to add QB chemistry.

[Ben E Lou]

I hate Hanson as a starter. Low Sense Rush. Low Accuracy. What good is that guy?

[Ben E Lou]

Dola:

BUT I GUESS I CAN MANAGE TO GAME PLAN AROUND IT!!1

[QuikSand]

I think this is our DB leader:

CB 10th Gary Rhodes (95/89) - good mtm guy, can play ST, mediocre cover man

With him at the top, target guys:

WANT: 8-9, 11-12 BAD: 12-1

CB 8th Blake Seigneious (36/36) - solid, ST guy, good fit
CB 2nd Herman Newsome (33/33) - decent coverage, KR 33, reserve caliber
CB 8th Josh Garrett (32/32) - reserve caliber, good zone/bump
S 9th Easton Gargnac (maybe not)
S 4th Ed Stamm (47/47) - intriguing with switch to CB?
S 2nd Shawn Carpenter (30/30) - ST guy and ballhawk, great depth pickup

[MalcPow]

I'd call that our first grand debate... Bishop or Hanson? Bishop would seem to be the better player, and he's tickling Ben's interest with high accuracy and sense rush I'm guessing. I don't know how to value the affinity stuff. Feel free to weigh in if you have thoughts.

[MalcPow]

Affinity chart for reference:

http://www.bearsruletheworld.com/vnfl/images/filmroom/affinities-table.jpg

[MalcPow]

I like the idea of using FA to establish the affinity structure that Quik is talking about, with all of the priority fits he identifies. It probably even makes sense to sign Bishop, Hanson, and Fix as well. We can debate who our starter is down the line (probably Bishop), but Hanson is a mentor and Hanson/Fix both give us the affinity stuff. I'm really not impressed with the QBs in the class other than Strong, and he's almost definitely going 1.1. I'm sure we'll draft one, but there isn't a guy we're likely to get that should impact our affinity building.

I think we can then use the draft to fill in our "talented players" who we follow over time.

[QuikSand]

I'd call that our first grand debate... Bishop or Hanson? Bishop would seem to be the better player, and he's tickling Ben's interest with high accuracy and sense rush I'm guessing. I don't know how to value the affinity stuff. Feel free to weigh in if you have thoughts.

I'll vote to go with the guy we like best here, and for the group that sounds like Bishop. Not worth upending the serious guts of the team to fluff up my chemistry stuff - we can add good vibes in plenty of other ways.

[QuikSand]

A few interviews to share:

QB Strong - O pers 37
WR Wells - O pers 70
WR Murphy - AS
DE Dole - U
RB Feusse - HTR pers 52
S Godfrey - AS
G Zorich - OR
T Howard - AS
DE Cheatham - O pers 85
DE Lane - U pers 84
G Montes - HTR
S Coles - VO pers 78

[timmae]

Just want to say I am following this closely... good stuff so far. I'll be very interested in where this ends up FA wise!

[MalcPow]

A few others:

CB Newsome VU
WLB Abdullah U
ILB Chambers HTR
DE Pulley AS
WR Shields O
RB Kurogi U

[Olsson]

At 1.3 I like the following in the order listed:

DE Les Dole
RB Gage Fausse
WR Anthony Wells (If interviewed and dumb as wood)
QB Levon Strong
RB Henry Benitez

Besides what most said I like the following for sleeper picks:

TE Damien Griffith - Considered in 7th/UDFA - Useful in the passing game. Nice blocking strength and 3 blue bars

LG Brendan Kubis - Considered in 5th or lower - Not the greatest upside but will probably develop into a decent starter

DE Mel Kocher - Considered in 7th/UDFA - Nice upside. Good physical bars and good volatility

WLB Logan Abdullah - Considered 6th or lower - Nice 3-4 pass rusher with good upside due to his physical skills.

CB Jerry Shepard - Considered 5th or lower - He just seems a lot better than his grade.

[MalcPow]

DE Les Dole is making a run up the board for me as I'm digging in a little. CB Dan Newsome as well.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/742/kYVA2E.png

Dole has great bars, even after an interview, and he's given an Underrated review from our scouts. The combines are good. The raw grade is good. He's also a 1993 birth year guy, which makes him one of the much smaller number of 21 yr old draftees in a game-generated class. His 30% developed number is a little lower than the average DE, but it's pretty good for a guy who is young like this. He has crept into the 1.3 conversation for me. If you see great bars and the combines, interview, and raw grade don't scare you in some other way, you can start to buy in pretty hard.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/537/drHky7.png

Newsome checks some similar boxes as a younger draftee, but he's also very developed. The VU interview is obviously a very good sign. And the fact that the interview is telling us he has some maxed or near-maxed bars is also a good thing, especially when one of those bars is Endurance. It's a fair question whether Newsome or a converted SS Brantley Godfrey is the best corner in the class. But I think I'm buying that they'd both be really good.

My working list is probably:

QB Strong
WR Murphy
DE Dole, RB Feusse, CB Newsome, SS Godfrey (all fighting for that 3rd spot based on positional value or some other reasoning)

And I still don't really want WR Anthony Wells. :)

[MalcPow]

WR Wells has 70 Intelligence according to the interview by the way. Screenie:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/540/ajcUui.png

[Julio Riddols]

So we'll have to figure out who signs in FA and what kind of chemistry structure we have before making final decisions on the rookies. I agree that overvaluing chemistry vs pure talent is a bad idea, but if there is a choice between 2 guys and one is an affinity, the affinity is the one to go with, certainly.

My scouted rookies, from lower in the draft:

Preimsberg, TE : AS, INT 11, L/P=41/75 (If we don't go with 9-10 position leaders, as he fits the conflict profile there. He looks like a solid TE though, and he could be had later in the draft.)

Hampton, FB : U, INT 21, L/P=10/90 (Not quite in the 9-10 category, but not a conflict)

Steve Glover, WR : O, INT 21, L/P= 34/10 (A wet noodle, non conflict. Late round prospect in the event we're still WR less after the good guys are gone.)

Phil Seelig, WR: He sucks according to our scout. No hidden gem.

Brad Kramer, RG: VO according to scout, but fits chemistry profile and will be available late in draft. L/P=58/65, so a decent chemistry guy. I disagree with the scout rating on him. His combines and bars seem to match up to me, but he is 1% developed.

Cody Moore, LT: VU. Non conflict, possible late round steal.

Nick Fleming, RT: O. Non conflict, born exact same day as Moore, one year earlier. Thought that was an interesting coincidence, but means nothing ultimately. Just another solid late round T prospect.

Bryant Miskiewicz, RT: O, but great pass blocking combines and a minor affinity with a birthdate of 10-7.

Mike Alcorn, LDE: U, maybe candidate for pick 7.11. Fits affinity structure for defense but is a minor affinity at that.

Bucky Wayne, CB: O, fits affinity structure, can play a little ST and I tend to believe he is more AS than O.

Jason Witt, S: O, Fits affinity structure, looks like a ST stud. Has interesting bars. 59/60 L/P

[Julio Riddols]

FWIW I think Dole could possibly be there at 1.15. Risky proposition, but there will be some strong talent at each of our 4 first round spots.

Maybe consider trading 1.15 and 1.24 for 1.5 or 1.6?

[MalcPow]

At 1.3 I like the following in the order listed:

DE Les Dole
RB Gage Fausse
WR Anthony Wells (If interviewed and dumb as wood)
QB Levon Strong
RB Henry Benitez

Besides what most said I like the following for sleeper picks:

TE Damien Griffith - Considered in 7th/UDFA - Useful in the passing game. Nice blocking strength and 3 blue bars

LG Brendan Kubis - Considered in 5th or lower - Not the greatest upside but will probably develop into a decent starter

DE Mel Kocher - Considered in 7th/UDFA - Nice upside. Good physical bars and good volatility

WLB Logan Abdullah - Considered 6th or lower - Nice 3-4 pass rusher with good upside due to his physical skills.

CB Jerry Shepard - Considered 5th or lower - He just seems a lot better than his grade.

Good stuff. Both you and JR have brought up WLB Abdullah, and I like what I see there as well. We will almost definitely burn a 4th or 5th on him.

[QuikSand]

Here's a new game file, after running through free agency with a lot of input and guidance from above. I didn't really engage in any battles - we put in a big offer to the top WR JR wanted, but lost out there. We did get QB Bishop, and came away (I think) with a pretty decent starting group. There will be a sizable number of still-worthwhile veterans to consider after the draft.

On quite a few veterans, I put in very cut-friendly deals... so my initial decisions don't necessarily have to bind our hands too much. We do have one big chem conflict in the secondary (my bad) that I didn't remedy, thought that would be better as a group decision.

But this gets us to the draft in earnest, and with our affinity leaders in place it is now much easier to assess chemistry effects, etc.

http://sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/groupthk.zip

[MalcPow]

Thanks Quik. Nice. I updated the initial post with a link to the latest file as well. I will try to keep that post up-to-date for ease of following along.

[MalcPow]

I think I'm going to take the lead on getting us through the draft. I'll probably aim to finish the first round by the end of the day tomorrow, but keep sending thoughts on later round guys as well. It may end up making sense to move pretty quickly. But I want to have some discussion and for people to have time to offer some thoughts on interesting guys.

I'm going to leave open the debate on 1.3 guys as well. I'm intrigued by the idea of a trade up to be in position to get DE Dole somewhere other than 1.3. It feels like our top 3 is really something like QB Strong, WR Murphy (or is that me pushing), and RB Gage Feusse. The fact the WR Murphy is also an affinity now makes him an even better fit for me.

I'll probably "start the draft" and see who goes off the board in front of us in a little bit. It will be funny when Strong falls in our lap or something.

[Julio Riddols]

I ran the first two picks on my end and Murphy and Strong went 1,2.

According to the CPU you apparently are not reaching there.

[Julio Riddols]

If the same happens on your end I think we gotta go with Godfrey and try trading up to get Dole. I think those two could be defensive cornerstones. Not glamorous, but I think it pays off in the long term.

[MalcPow]

I ran the first two picks on my end and Murphy and Strong went 1,2.

According to the CPU you apparently are not reaching there.

Wow. Yeah... Murphy goes ahead of Strong...

1. Tampa Bay - Murphy, Brody, WR, Florida State
2. Oakland - Strong, Levon, QB, Notre Dame

I have a handful of scattered thoughts on that.

1) I generally agree with Julio's earlier point about drafting a good RB being a bit of a waste for a bad team. That said, we aren't really as bad looking as we might have expected.

2) I think I also agree with JR that DE Dole probably doesn't need to go at 1.3. Maybe we consider trading down?

3) There are some good players right here staring us in the face.

I'll look at some trade options for us to consider.

[MalcPow]

I don't want to waste too much time with trade machinations, but here are some quick concepts:

1) We trade 1.15 and 3.1 FOR 1.10
2) We trade 1.3 FOR 1.9, 2.8, and 3.9
3) We trade 1.3 FOR 1.9 and DET 2015 1st

Let's pretend like those are our only trade options. I think we get Dole at any of those spots.

[Julio Riddols]

I like option 1 and 3 combined, but I worry that dropping to 1.9 is going to cost us someone. Still, it might be the right move.

if we just do 1.15 and 3.1 and get Dole at 1.10, awesome. I say we use 1.3 on Godfrey in that instance.

[Julio Riddols]

If we do drop to 1.9/1.10, I bet the RB we like is there if the other guys we want aren't. Might be able to grab him and Dole with back to back picks, and an extra first next year is something that could come in very handy, especially if Detroit happens to suck.

[Julio Riddols]

Very intriguing position we're in though. I was coming around on the WR Murphy for 1.3 too.

[MalcPow]

I like it. We probably won't make other trades just to keep us from getting too cute. I can already hear the imaginary Quik on my shoulder asking me to stop pretending this is a real career and to just do whatever the hell to make sure we get the guys we are interested in following.

For me, Dole is one of those guys. If we can get Godfrey, Newsome, or Feusse as well, then that's a cool start for us.

[Julio Riddols]

Also, looking at their roster, I say there is a high likelihood Detroit blows ass next year. Definitely think it is a good idea to pull the trigger on that deal the more I look at it.

[Julio Riddols]

I'm ok with Dole at 1.3 though.

[MalcPow]

Well, if we miss out on Dole, I'm going to come find you JR. Most people would just reload and fix it BUT NOT ME.

[MalcPow]

We make two separate trades.

1.3 FOR 1.9 and DET 2015 1st
1.15 and 3.1 FOR 1.10

We have both the 9th and 10th picks now. And, depending on your perspective, the board either takes away all the drama or pushes us to the brink of an indecision breakdown...

3. Detroit - Wells, Anthony, WR, Mississippi State
4. Tennessee - Kandel, Phillip, QB, Louisville
5. New York - Covey, Kirk, QB, Washington
6. Carolina - Bullock, Corbin, T, Washington State
7. St. Louis - Caldwell, Bert, DT, Texas State
8. New Jersey - Pulley, Damian, DE, Western Illinois

Detroit takes Wells. Tennessee and New York take bad QBs. Carolina takes the top LT. Basically all the guys we wanted at 1.3 are still on the board.

[Julio Riddols]

Godfrey and Dole. No brainer at this point IMO.

[Julio Riddols]

I think we made out like bandits with those two still being there.

[Julio Riddols]

I wonder what the chances of our RB falling to 1.22 are.

[MalcPow]

CB Newsome and SS Godfrey are a tough call for me. DE Dole at 1.10 is a done deal...

We'll go Godfrey. Our first two draftees:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/674/SR7QFV.png

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/743/Mubn5F.png

[Julio Riddols]

What if we get Newsome and Feusse at 1.22 and 1.24?

[MalcPow]

What if we get Newsome and Feusse at 1.22 and 1.24?

I will find you to high five you this time.

[Julio Riddols]

Already pretty excited to see what these guys do in action.

[QuikSand]

Really glad we got Dole, and for such value there. Great work. Now land that RB (Feusse), don't fuck around trying to pick up 3rd rounders.

[MalcPow]

We got too lucky with our last picks.

11. Atlanta - Coles, Ivan, S, Eastern Washington
12. San Diego - Rhoden, Alan, DE, Arkansas - Pine Bluff
13. New York - Zorich, Mateo, G, Stanford
14. Philadelphia - Carter, Josiah, T, Clemson
15. Jacksonville - Newsome, Dan, CB, Miami, Florida
16. Buffalo - Montes, Deion, G, Central Michigan
17. Cincinnati - Feusse, Gage, RB, Bowling Green
18. St. Louis - Kurogi, Drew, RB, Syracuse

This certainly isn't a disaster. But it clears out a good number of the names we've been talking about. And we've got 1.19, 1.22, and 1.24 coming up in short order. I'll take a look and post some thoughts.

[QuikSand]

Ok then, carry on.

[Julio Riddols]

Damn, tough run there..

[MalcPow]

LT Peter Linquist is the next guy on the board for me. I like the other T Bob Clinton a little as well, but he's an enormous RT who can't make the move over to the LT spot very well.

[Julio Riddols]

I liked Linquist in early scouting, he seems like a solid pick. What do you think about taking both Tackles?

Edit: Misread, thought you said the big guy would make a solid transition to RT. Maybe Linquist moves instead? What about kicking the big guy inside?

[Julio Riddols]

Also.. Is RB Benitez worth a gamble with 1.24 assuming he remains?

[MalcPow]

There's obviously a scenario here where we get Newsome, Feusse, and Linquist with a reload and some very painless trades. Or we can stick to the INTEGRITY OF THE GAME and get Linquist, some guy, and wut.

Any thoughts?

[QuikSand]

VOTE INTEGRITY

[MalcPow]

*hangs head in shame*

Perfect segue... Our next Brown!

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/742/wDeLGS.png

If anybody has the game open, I feel like his bars look slightly different on our roster than they did off of it.

[MalcPow]

And the Red Flag RB Benitez goes off the board right in front of us. Probably a blessing.

19. Cleveland - Linquist, Peter, T, Stephen F. Austin
20. Baltimore - Spry, Joshua, DT, Southern California
21. Miami - Benitez, Henry, RB, Hawaii

[MalcPow]

The mix of guys I'm looking at right now includes the crop of RTs Clinton, Howard, Congdon, and Peele. Maybe DE Dixon Cheatham as a solid player plus affinity guy. DT Wes Shea is really intriguing for me as a potential big time pass rusher.

I'm also just noticing that FB Hayden Hampton is probably the best non-kicker on the board and that he is freakishly light for a FB. I understand JR's conversion idea there now.

[Julio Riddols]

I like Hampton.. I think he is there at 1.24 though. Who do you think we like that has the highest chance of being picked between here and 2.1?

Bookend tackles would certainly be nice.

An affinity DE would be as well.

I am very interested in WR Josue Shields at 2.1

[Julio Riddols]

Would DE Shaun Edwards be an affinity match? He seems just as solid as some of the higher end DE's, but could probably be had in the 3rd or 4th.

[MalcPow]

I'm assuming the Tackles start getting popped here. They don't all make it to 2.1. Those 4 are basically the top of the Adj Grd sort right now.

WR Shields is going to be a Brown. I guess it's either at 2.1 or 2.10 because it's probably too much risk to wait until the 3rd. Same with Hampton if we want to get cute there with some kind of FB conversion or FB playing as RB thing. (Anybody have any success with anything like that?)

I might be leaning toward Tackle to be determined, the pass-rushing DT, and then Hampton and Shields as our plan for these four picks.

[MalcPow]

Heh, we also paid a bunch for a FB in FA. So if we take Hampton at 2.1 or something, it's to be a RB. Conversion or otherwise.

[Julio Riddols]

Hampton is probably the best RB on the board at this point, IMO.

I converted a FB to RB in fof 2007, Howie Gornitsky. He was a 220 pounder with similar combines. He ended up being a stud for years. Haven't had a real opportunity to do it in FOF 7, but I think this guy would be the ultimate case study.

I agree that he could fall to 2.1 and Shields may even make it to 2.10.

[MalcPow]

Well, I'm in for the Hampton experiment just for the novelty of it then. We'll see what happens. He looks like a stud FB, even if he loses 20 points he should still be an ok RB and better than what we've got.

Anybody have strong feelings on these Tackles? I may give some summary thoughts, but they look like different flavors without a ton of total value separation.

[Julio Riddols]

I like Clinton a lot as RT, and I think Howard would make a fine Guard.

[MalcPow]

They are all RTs. Grade has them ordered:

Clinton
Howard
Congdon
Peele

Clinton looks like the solid guy with big strength. Howard looks like he has elite endurance but may have at best 50ish blocking ratings. Congdon is a potential affinity who looks good with everything but endurance. Peele is the wussy technical guy who probably has the best pass blocking bar of the bunch by a decent margin and pretty good endurance too. They're all in the 5.5 to 5.8 raw bureau grade range.

Probably Clinton because we don't really have a great reason to go against the Grade order, or Congdon because the affinity breaks what's pretty close to a tie.

[Julio Riddols]

If we decide to wait, T Cody Moore looks good for later as well.

I'm just having a hard time putting a real value on the T and DE spots because there seems to be a good deal of quality depth at both positions.

[Julio Riddols]

I think Clinton is a solid choice. The mountain that blocks.

[QuikSand]

...tied up w kid stuff, likely of little help here, sorry

[MalcPow]

I think Clinton is a solid choice. The mountain that blocks.

Yeah, I'm going to see if I can land this run of guys for us. There really isn't a whole lot to say. I think all four of these Ts are probably in the 50-60ish range. No fatal mistakes here.

[MalcPow]

Things go as planned. Mostly because we probably over-drafted Hampton and Shields by half a round or something, but I like those guys and I'm glad we got them.

22. Cleveland - Clinton, Bob, T, Elon College

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/674/Dp0Bt4.png

The mountain that blocks.

23. Houston - Cheatham, Dixon, DE, Minnesota
24. Cleveland - Shea, Wes, DT, Memphis

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/674/3eb0Tr.png

Just a really good potential pass-rusher at a position where we don't really have anyone. Fired up that he hits the roster at 40/50. He may be one-dimensional, but I think he's going to be good at creating pressure.

25. Indianapolis - Lane, Grady, DE, Virginia Tech
26. New Orleans - Mathews, Brody, DE, Southern Mississippi
27. Green Bay - Savickas, Michael, DE, Arizona State
28. New England - Manning, Jimmie, TE, North Carolina State
29. Washington - Chambers, Leo, ILB, Baylor
30. Denver - Howard, Braxton, T, Arkansas
31. Pittsburgh - Shepard, Harris, DE, Clemson
32. Dallas - Coleman, Leroy, DT, Mississippi State
33. Cleveland - Hampton, Hayden, FB, Vanderbilt

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/674/ikpUzi.png

We'll see how our experiment goes. He's got the right weight, or as close as you'll see at least.

34. Oakland - Peele, R.J., T, Minnesota
35. Tennessee - Congdon, Leland, T, Wake Forest
36. Tampa Bay - Rasmussen, Axel, S, Tulsa
37. Carolina - Morton, Ken, DT, California
38. Chicago - Kerner, Lewis, CB, Siena
39. Buffalo - Broderick, Wayne, RB, Nebraska
40. Detroit - Jason, Kaleb, CB, Virginia Tech
41. New Jersey - Rollin, Ian, T, Lafayette
42. Cleveland - Shields, Josue, WR, Ohio State

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/540/NQItRm.png

5% developed but hitting the roster at 26/58? That's another good sign. Shields is a guy whose combines are good pretty much across the board and the bars seem to match up. Probably not a star, but a starter caliber WR who gets lost a little. A 4.43 is good, and it's different than a 4.48 even if they look really similar when we're skimming through these things. Same with the other combines. Shields has basically all blues and bars to match. It's just smoke to have guys like Doggett in front of him.

43. San Diego - Garrison, Brian, OLB, Oregon State
44. New York - Brooks, Ernie, ILB, Utah
45. Philadelphia - Conley, Dale, G, East Carolina
46. Jacksonville - Reid, Rex, ILB, Florida State
47. Buffalo - Fajardo, Maximus, DT, East Carolina
48. Cincinnati - D'Amico, Zack, DE, Nebraska
49. Chicago - Fjelstad, Drake, S, Duke
50. San Francisco - Chapman, Jared, DT, East Carolina
51. Kansas City - Hughes, Chester, CB, Virginia
52. Baltimore - Sanders, Ezekiel, DE, Oklahoma State
53. Miami - Kimsey, Skip, CB, Illinois
54. Minnesota - Stephenson, Les, DE, Temple
55. Houston - Petry, Everett, DT, Southern California
56. Arizona - Hopper, Steven, DT, Illinois State
57. Indianapolis - Francis, Roman, DE, Arizona
58. Green Bay - Kemp, Jake, DE, Massachusetts
59. New England - Stephenson, Pat, WR, Missouri
60. New Orleans - Pritchett, Bo, OLB, Louisiana - Lafayette
61. Washington - Hatcher, Grant, OLB, Baylor
62. Denver - Summers, Miguel, T, Oklahoma State
63. Pittsburgh - Banks, Jacob, DE, Illinois
64. New Jersey - Darusmont, Donovan, DT, Stanford
65. Jacksonville - Jacomy, Mo, WR, Georgia Tech
66. Oakland - Wanat, Steve, P, Rutgers

And that takes us to 3.3 and our next pick. Gonna pause here for a bit.

[MalcPow]

Haha and I just noticed that the stud Punter got popped at 3.2. I wanted him too!

[Julio Riddols]

Wow, Wanat went that high, huh...

[Julio Riddols]

Might need another file before we continue on, unless you pretty much have all the info you need.

Gotta think "Day 1" was a huge hit. Tons of talent hitting the roster, and hopefully all of it sticks. Very interested in Hampton and intrigued by that DT. I had overlooked him because his endurance is about 0. Really weak draft at DT overall, IMO.

I have no complaints about any of the selections, I think they are all sound and they will all play major roles right out of the gate.

[Julio Riddols]

Not only that, but we get to keep tabs on Detroit this year and see where our extra 1st rounder ends up being.

[MalcPow]

Updated File: Dropbox - groupthk_140910_MidDraft.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/kvx9qv6w8sr0kn5/groupthk_140910_MidDraft.zip?dl=0)

[MalcPow]

Might need another file before we continue on, unless you pretty much have all the info you need.

Gotta think "Day 1" was a huge hit. Tons of talent hitting the roster, and hopefully all of it sticks. Very interested in Hampton and intrigued by that DT. I had overlooked him because his endurance is about 0. Really weak draft at DT overall, IMO.

I have no complaints about any of the selections, I think they are all sound and they will all play major roles right out of the gate.

Yeah, roster is loving our Rookies at the moment. The Steelers lost in the Bowl last season in this universe, but it will be interesting to see how competitive we are early on.

Probably not a bad time to start putting out the call for a hero with some good gameplans they'd like to toss into the mix for this thing.

[Julio Riddols]

I feel like Ben already has much saliva generating within his maw.

[MalcPow]

I'm probably going to finish up some dinner here and then just crank through the draft. I've got a couple guys targeted that have been mentioned and then a few more flyers. We've got too many picks to really drag things out too much. Let's get through it, and we can talk about some of these guys when they're on the roster. Feel free to go back and grab some interviews for interest's sake or compare and contrast these guys pre and post-draft.

[MalcPow]

The last of the picks:

67. Cleveland - Kedwell, Zachary, K, Missouri
68. Tennessee - Borders, Doug, FB, Alabama
69. Chicago - Lloyd, Elias, T, Missouri
70. Seattle - Doggett, Giovanni, WR, Miami, Florida
71. Carolina - Whalen, Derek, TE, Missouri
72. New Jersey - Curtis, Harry, TE, Baylor
73. Chicago - Lane, Jayce, T, South Carolina
74. Buffalo - Griffith, Ellis, ILB, Memphis
75. New York - Moore, Cody, T, Fairfield
76. Philadelphia - Joseph, Ken, RB, Florida State
77. New Orleans - Price, Luther, CB, Alabama
78. Cleveland - Preimsberg, Abel, TE, Minnesota
79. Cincinnati - Duncan, Ike, T, Illinois
80. St. Louis - Svitak, Emmett, CB, Stanford
81. Miami - Walker, Kenneth, CB, Texas Christian
82. San Diego - Sims, Trent, WR, Hawaii
83. New Jersey - Rolfe, Ernest, T, Ohio State
84. Baltimore - Skelton, Griffin, OLB, Florida State
85. Miami - Davis, Orlando, ILB, Tennessee
86. Minnesota - Sawyer, Landon, CB, Michigan
87. Houston - Griffith, Joey, OLB, UCLA
88. Arizona - Bryant, Kim, CB, Louisiana - Lafayette
89. Indianapolis - Galloway, B.J., RB, Vanderbilt
90. Baltimore - Kurowski, Mike, OLB, Cincinnati
91. New Orleans - Duffy, Daniel, WR, Jacksonville
92. Green Bay - Ogden, Howie, CB, Oklahoma
93. Washington - England, Ian, OLB, Michigan State
94. Denver - McCracken, Cary, RB, Purdue
95. Pittsburgh - Wayne, Bucky, CB, Murray State
96. Dallas - Nyboer, Perry, FB, Middle Tennessee St.
97. Cleveland - Patterson, Victor, C, Cincinnati
98. Oakland - Mascarenas, Asher, OLB, Fordham
99. Tennessee - Cochrane, Monty, WR, Penn State
100. Tampa Bay - Thomas, Jerald, S, North Carolina
101. Seattle - Sheen, Phillip, WR, Tennessee
102. Carolina - DeGroot, Mason, RB, Wagner
103. Detroit - McCarthy, Joe, G, Tulane
104. Detroit - Meier, Myles, P, Nebraska
105. Kansas City - Jordan, Randy, WR, Temple
106. New York - Garrison, Ron, TE, Boston College
107. Cleveland - Abdullah, Logan, OLB, Furman
108. Jacksonville - Newhart, Ezekiel, TE, St. Mary's, Cal.
109. Atlanta - Harden, Levon, S, Michigan State
110. Cleveland - Rogers, Stan, C, Florida
111. Chicago - Shephard, Brian, QB, North Carolina State
112. San Francisco - Walters, Shane, ILB, Ohio State
113. Buffalo - McDaniel, Jake, DT, Arizona
114. Cincinnati - Dalzell, Larry, WR, Washington State
115. Buffalo - Foley, Phil, DE, Miami, Florida
116. New Orleans - Hickey, Nolan, DT, Mississippi
117. Chicago - Stevens, Karl, G, Tennessee State
118. St. Louis - Low, Al, K, Minnesota
119. Houston - Banfield, Vernon, CB, Georgia Tech
120. Arizona - Turner, Dennis, QB, Stanford
121. Indianapolis - Dotson, Alvin, DT, Navy
122. New Orleans - Darchi, Howie, DT, Louisville
123. Green Bay - Summers, Xander, CB, Northwestern
124. Miami - Godfrey, Mike, K, Arizona
125. Washington - Walker, Grady, CB, Jacksonville
126. Denver - Ficek, Gino, K, Washington State
127. Baltimore - Garris, Brock, K, Northern Colorado
128. Dallas - Edwards, Shaun, DE, Virginia Military
129. Cleveland - Way, Kerry, CB, Mississippi State
130. Oakland - Goodwin, Joey, DT, Maryland
131. Tampa Bay - Woods, Mercury, T, Florida State
132. Tennessee - Alexander, C.J., DT, North Carolina State
133. Carolina - Braico, Kaiden, QB, Tx. A&M - Commerce
134. Cleveland - Glover, Steve, WR, Northwestern
135. Seattle - Hatch, A.J., P, Arizona
136. New Jersey - Bryant, Harold, P, Louisiana State
137. Detroit - Stahl, Harrison, DE, Vanderbilt
138. Cleveland - Loendorf, Greyson, P, Michigan
139. Jacksonville - Sorrells, Harry, OLB, Mississippi State
140. Atlanta - Drexler, Ronnie, CB, North Carolina
141. San Diego - Poole, Conner, T, Notre Dame
142. New York - Aliabadi, Shawn, DT, Southern California
143. San Francisco - Fleming, Nicholas, T, East Carolina
144. Kansas City - Schulz, Nathaniel, QB, New Mexico
145. Cincinnati - Anderson, Rodney, QB, Western Washington
146. Chicago - Joyner, Brayden, DT, Syracuse
147. Kansas City - Young, Ellis, ILB, Oregon State
148. Baltimore - Alcott, Clay, T, Bucknell
149. Miami - Davison, Trent, DE, Southern California
150. Minnesota - Holmes, Dale, S, Florida State
151. Houston - Terrell, Kevin, ILB, Texas
152. Arizona - Lane, Roger, G, Western Michigan
153. Indianapolis - Lynch, Scottie, OLB, Northern Iowa
154. Green Bay - Bernard, Ray, ILB, Stanford
155. New England - Fadiman, Drake, OLB, California
156. Pittsburgh - Richard, Reggie, T, North Texas
157. Washington - Halapin, Antonio, T, North Carolina
158. Denver - Mathews, Jonathan, DT, East Carolina
159. Pittsburgh - Levine, Terrell, WR, Abiline Christian
160. Dallas - Alcorn, Mike, DE, Air Force
161. Cleveland - Thibodeaux, Sherman, DT, Alabama - Birmingham
162. Oakland - Harness, Rickey, DE, South Carolina
163. Tennessee - Sutton, Ellis, G, Tennessee Tech
164. Tampa Bay - Haworth, Danny, T, Kansas State
165. St. Louis - Durkin, Ed, G, Arkansas
166. Seattle - Saleski, Les, OLB, Oklahoma State
167. Carolina - Bergen, Dylan, OLB, Pittsburgh
168. Detroit - Webster, Lorenzo, DE, Wake Forest
169. New Jersey - Burgess, T.J., DT, Ferris State
170. Jacksonville - Butler, Mercury, DE, Memphis
171. Atlanta - Raymond, Randal, ILB, Texas
172. Cleveland - McNeil, Blaine, S, Brigham Young
173. New York - Creel, Alexander, DT, Auburn
174. Cleveland - Heimburger, Damian, S, Clemson
175. Buffalo - Griffin, Sammy, T, Miami, Florida
176. Cincinnati - Netter, Artie, ILB, Minnesota
177. Miami - Marriott, Archie, WR, Oklahoma State
178. San Francisco - Casper, Liam, T, Arizona
179. Kansas City - Crownhart, Zachary, WR, Southern California
180. Baltimore - Wilkins, Ryder, T, Tennessee
181. New England - Isaia, Randy, G, Army
182. Minnesota - MacLean, Jayce, QB, Cincinnati
183. Houston - Fleming, Jumbo, RB, Arizona
184. Arizona - Crane, Tyler, DE, Clemson
185. Indianapolis - Donovan, Kirk, T, Maryland
186. New England - Preston, Keegan, S, Brigham Young
187. Baltimore - Blanchard, D.J., RB, Temple
188. Green Bay - Kerr, Amos, QB, Louisiana State
189. Washington - McCarthy, Marco, G, Fresno State
190. Denver - Urpsis, Vince, DE, North Carolina
191. Pittsburgh - De Rooy, Perry, RB, Southern California
192. Dallas - Duffy, Jude, S, Oklahoma State
193. Cleveland - Solorio, T.J., RB, Duke
194. Oakland - Washington, Van, OLB, Colorado
195. Tampa Bay - Daniels, Donald, QB, Florida State
196. Tennessee - Hughes, Emmanuel, G, Purdue
197. Seattle - Swift, Freddie, OLB, Louisiana Tech
198. Carolina - Reynaud, Jon, C, Rutgers
199. St. Louis - Leonas, Jeffrey, DT, UCLA
200. New Jersey - Mathis, Josue, DE, Mississippi
201. Detroit - Stitt, Terrell, T, Southern California
202. Atlanta - Sievers, Brian, QB, Miami, Ohio
203. Cleveland - Miskiewicz, Bryant, T, North Texas
204. New York - Hamiter, Bentley, DE, Ohio State
205. Philadelphia - King, Sammy, FB, Baylor
206. Jacksonville - Brantley, Grayson, FB, Louisiana State
207. Cincinnati - Osborne, Billy, T, Georgia Tech
208. Chicago - Wynn, Max, DE, Cincinnati
209. San Francisco - Furman, Lamont, WR, Indiana
210. Seattle - Pontbriand, Terrance, S, Boise State
211. Kansas City - Harner, Terrell, OLB, North Carolina
212. Baltimore - Wiggins, Gary, DT, Arkansas
213. San Francisco - Austin, Burt, OLB, Notre Dame
214. Minnesota - Murray, Eduardo, OLB, Michigan
215. Houston - Seelig, Phillip, WR, Syracuse
216. Arizona - Keith, Darrell, RB, Hawaii
217. Indianapolis - Brennan, Adrian, TE, South Carolina
218. Jacksonville - Brown, Jason, S, Ball State
219. Green Bay - Dick, Caden, OLB, Nevada - Las Vegas
220. New England - Klatt, Hudson, G, Wisconsin
221. Washington - Caldwell, Jay, TE, Idaho State
222. Denver - Hathaway, Jeremy, WR, Georgia Tech
223. Pittsburgh - Duffy, Abel, WR, Wake Forest
224. Dallas - Van Cleave, James, CB, Southern Mississippi

And all our guys...

Amateur Draft Report:

Rnd 1 - Peter Linquist, T, Stephen F. Austin
Rnd 1 - Bob Clinton, T, Elon College
Rnd 1 - Les Dole, DE, Wake Forest
Rnd 1 - Wes Shea, DT, Memphis
Rnd 1 - Brantley Godfrey, S, Colorado State
Rnd 2 - Hayden Hampton, FB, Vanderbilt
Rnd 2 - Josue Shields, WR, Ohio State
Rnd 3 - Abel Preimsberg, TE, Minnesota
Rnd 3 - Zachary Kedwell, K, Missouri
Rnd 4 - Victor Patterson, C, Cincinnati
Rnd 4 - Stan Rogers, C, Florida
Rnd 4 - Logan Abdullah, OLB, Furman
Rnd 5 - Steve Glover, WR, Northwestern
Rnd 5 - Greyson Loendorf, P, Michigan
Rnd 5 - Kerry Way, CB, Mississippi State
Rnd 6 - Sherman Thibodeaux, DT, Alabama - Birmingham
Rnd 6 - Blaine McNeil, S, Brigham Young
Rnd 6 - Damian Heimburger, S, Clemson
Rnd 7 - T.J. Solorio, RB, Duke
Rnd 7 - Bryant Miskiewicz, T, North Texas

Yes, I overcame my disappointment with missing out on that Punter by taking a stud Kicker in the 3rd.

Dropbox - groupthk_140910_EndDraft.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/epc5scwlzszlfta/groupthk_140910_EndDraft.zip?dl=0)

[Julio Riddols]

UDFA

Zane Turnbull, QB - Kick holder, affinity.

Wesley Biddle, SE - 4.43, 13 reps, 7.10 agility, 50 position drill? Won't eat targets but will eat yards when he does get targeted.

Scottie Curtis, LS

Brad Kramer, G 1% developed, solid combines, 12/41, affinity

Jerry Shepard, RCB (maybe move to S?) good combines, affinity. could replace the non affinity safety we currently have.

Jason Witt, FS - Interesting bars, no combine. Affinity. Special teams.

[Julio Riddols]

I think this was a really strong draft for the Groupthink Browns. Probably 15-16 significant contributors there.

I think we need a new team name.

[MalcPow]

I like those UDFA suggestions, JR. I might pass the baton to Quik (or at least leave it hanging out there for him to grab) for some of our FA2 roster clean-up and pushing forward.

I'm realizing now that I'm home from the office and looking back through some of this stuff that our 3rd round TE, Abel Preimsberg, is a strong conflict. Just a total whiff there as I was trying to quickly sort through different lists and make those picks. Doubly frustrating because Preimsberg is a guy who multiple people mentioned and my weights liked. We'll have to chew on what to do there. My bad obviously.

I also wanted to pick up on something that I thought looked weird when I was posting the pick for T Peter Linquist.

Here he is after we drafted him:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/742/wDeLGS.png

Here he is just sitting in the draft class:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/673/XkUKNU.png

Here he is after an interview pre-draft:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/540/HcBxbG.png

I'm sure this stuff happens all the time, but I'm rarely moving this slowly and never taking multiple screenshots of a guy. I mean this looks like three different players though. I'll take some solace from the fact that the one that is sitting on our roster looks the best, but still, fascinating. Something to keep an eye on/think about.

[aston217]

Checking in...

Nice pair of tackles, you guys. And holy cow, Josue Shields looks like a get.

[MalcPow]

I also wanted to highlight two LBs with good raw grades and pretty awesome combines who are very high probability busts in the new game.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/912/o6ygTt.png

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/673/03GhE9.png

Chambers is the top rated ILB in the class with a 5.9 raw grade. Mascarenas is the second rated OLB in the class with a 5.1 raw grade. Chambers pops an Overrated interview and Mascarenas is Very Underrated. They both have, frankly, great combines. They also both have dumpsterfire bar profiles that should scare you away from drafting them.

A lot of things have changed about the way the game handles masking (and I'm not going to pretend to have a real handle on that), but I strongly believe that certain fundamentals are generally still in place. If you have the bar profile of a 15/15 player like Mascarenas does, you're not really breaking 50 no matter how underrated a scout thinks you are. Your static bars like PRStrength and Punishing Hitter are still pretty solidly within the realm of the bars visible in the draft screen. It's just too far to go from a development standpoint and a really strong indicator that the guy is not the sort of player his raw grade or combines are saying he is.

FOF7 has made more prominent the combine stud with dud bars, and the new combine uncertainty setting seems to have created some real extremes here. In 2k7, you could bank pretty heavily on these kinds of stud combine scores. Now they make me suspicious. A real stud is almost more likely to look like a DE Dole, with great bars and good combines, than the off the charts combine guys of old. Things like 99 Pos Scores for QBs and 4.3 dash times for WRs are suspicious now. Look for (at least some) elite bars if you want to dream that a guy might be an elite player.

Now all that said... Mascarenas slipped way down the board somehow and we almost took him at 4.1. :)

[Julio Riddols]

In 2k7, Mascarenas would have probably been a nice late round grab who blooms into a real solid backup after about 4 or 5 seasons, but yeah, combine warriors are a thing now. Lots of Vernon Gholston types.

I like the TE you drafted, but maybe we can flip him for a pick next year.

[Julio Riddols]

Lots of interesting studies to be done with the way this is being done. I like it.

One thing we could test is how many times teams draft the exact same guys across multiple simmed drafts. Like if we ran the draft over and just drafted the same guys with our picks, would the CPU still take the same guys they did?

[MalcPow]

I think generally, yes. There were a bunch of trades between AI teams in some of those middle rounds though. I'm not sure if there's a random element to those that might start to create some variance.

[aston217]

Mascarenas' combine looks almost too good to go with a bad player. I've seen combine warriors to an extent, but 4.46 LBs, I don't know about that...

In the one FOF7 I've done on my own, I've come to the conclusion that very bad combine scores, those below the MalcPow Cliff (TM), are still probably guarantees. I saw a couple players with these scores and really high bars and, unsurprisingly, they came way back down. This is at 50 accuracy. I would assume that those in the upper stratosphere, which a 4.46 is along with solid to very solid scores elsewhere, is still a strong if not total guarantee. I may not know my stuff here, though. And volatility does seem more rampant, on top of just unmasking.

Chambers I don't have a good feel on.

[Alf]

Good idea to use the Browns for that GroupThink !

[QuikSand]

With the TE, I'd say we keep him..more valuable to see how he develops and plays than to try to max out our chem stuff, for these purposes.

Not sure when I'll get to a computer to run anything though. Don't hold things up for me. (Seems safe with you left coasters and/or night owl types)

[QuikSand]

5% developed but hitting the roster at 26/58? That's another good sign. Shields is a guy whose combines are good pretty much across the board and the bars seem to match up. Probably not a star, but a starter caliber WR who gets lost a little. A 4.43 is good, and it's different than a 4.48 even if they look really similar when we're skimming through these things. Same with the other combines. Shields has basically all blues and bars to match. It's just smoke to have guys like Doggett in front of him.

I'd be interested in more elaboration here. This guy, to me, really feels like a learning opportunity.

4.43 v 4.48 -- does that cliff still trace back neatly to the now legendary thread on combine benchmarks?

Any broader takeaways on the %dev vs. current rating observation?

[Yoda]

With my school schedule/homework/real life stuff (like my laptop being down), it will be Saturday before I get a chance to dig into the file, sorry.

[QuikSand]

Mascarenas' combine looks almost too good to go with a bad player. I've seen combine warriors to an extent, but 4.46 LBs, I don't know about that...

He seems like a great guy to keep an eye on. In FOF 2007, he'd almost certainly be a sleeper type of some real consequences. In this career...I remain open to him being a complete turd now and forever (and if he fails to get playing time on an AI team, the chances escalate).

[Julio Riddols]

VOTE COMPLETE TURD

[Julio Riddols]

There once was a backer name Asher Mascarenas
Combines were good, but his bars they were no bueno
we didn't draft, he was picked up by the Raiders
Heeeeeyyy Mascarenas, Aaaiiieee

[QuikSand]

Things picking up around here.

[Julio Riddols]

Is it up to whoever to scramble through FA 2? I'll go ahead and knock it out.

[Julio Riddols]

Dropbox - groupthk.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/pxw1a679273ilpo/groupthk.zip?dl=0)

Ready for TC

[Julio Riddols]

I signed all the guys on my list plus a 4th DT, a no combine affinity guy. Looked at adding a LB, but none really struck me as being worth it. Currently 58 on roster.

[QuikSand]

Okay, I am putting in bids for the UDFAs that JR pointed out, and a few other guys worth kicking the tires on (by my eye). Not sure how far I ought to go with this next update.

I could run us all the way through training camp... but I think that involved making some decisions on a few guys and their ideal positions for this year, on which we haven't discussed much.

This would be my thinking:

-LB Geiger seems like a lock to move to the Will in a 3-4 if we're going that way. Since most seem to prefer the 3-4 front, I would make that switch, which in-game is 92% and a drop from 9 to 7 in experience. That guy's a born pass rusher.... unless we want to put rookie Abdullah into that role.

-I'd move WLB Flowers to SILB, and slot in Abdullah as the WILB. That leaves us without a good option at the Sam. I'd also be okay with Flowers there (actually prefer that, I think). I'm also signing FA Lincoln Cooley for a look as a possible WLB guy.

(bleh)

I'm not going to worry too much about position switching with these things unclear right now, I don't want to fence us in with my decision. Other than completely obvious things, I will leave this untouched and we can make that stuff part of the after-camp cutdown-to-60 (and then 53) discussions. We'll lose some immediate position familiarity gains, but I think this is the more catholic approach.

Only two areas I can see for an early move:

-Switch S Stamm to CB, and see how he looks? (I don't think he'd make the team at S if I were in charge... but he might at CB, but I want to see how he looks and fits after an 82% drop)

-Switch rookie FB Hampton to RB before training camp, or do we wait until after we try to drop his weight? (I'm guessing he won't be eligible to lose weight anyhow)

[QuikSand]

Ok, thanks JR, no worries... my questions about position switches still apply. I think I want to pick up a few more affinity/ST rookies, so we at least have guys like that in play for what could be an interesting cutdown discussion.

[Julio Riddols]

Feel free to disregard my update too, I just wasn't sure if anyone was going to run through it any time soon, figured I could real quick before I hit the sack.

[Julio Riddols]

I think guys can still be signed, so whether you want to work off my file or the previous one, I say go for it. Expectus Affinitus!

[QuikSand]

I'm working with your file, I'll take us through camp. Thoughts on the last two position switch questions above?

[QuikSand]

FB Hampton will indeed trim down, so I am choosing that for camp and will hold off on the position switch (I think this is a no brainer).

[QuikSand]

Post-TC file here: http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/groupthk_2014_postcamp.zip

Biggest (and possibly most intriguing) thing before us is the rookie FB/RB. He's down to 207 lbs, but in-game he makes a pretty steep drop. I'll try to post a pic if I get a chance.

[MalcPow]

Yeah, the funny thing with Hampton is I think he's already in the "ideal" weight range. He'll still take a dive to 78% of his ratings in a switch. We're definitely in uncharted territory for me on the optimal approach for a FB-RB switch, so I'm just along for the ride. Interesting to see how it turns out. Weird height-weight combos are another thing I'm following right now. Even T Linquist is one of those guys who is really light for his position but also very talented. There's something generally positive about "weird" guys. (I swear that's not just me projecting...)

[MalcPow]

Heh, yeah, Hampton gets crushed. I mean he's still playable. Is it more interesting to just start him as a FB in the RB spot or to make the conversion?

I think we actually did pretty well with RB Solorio too. Good endurance and his bars don't look quite good enough for the 32/46 rating. I'm pretty sure that means he at least won't be a horrific fumbler. Always a big unknown.

And edit to add: I guess we don't really know until we get through some preseason games and the ratings reveal.

[Julio Riddols]

Is it possible to start a FB as the top RB? If not, I think we have to bite the bullet and see what happens with the position switch. I think he'll be fine, his bars might not be pretty but I think he will produce.

[MalcPow]

We can definitely just slot him in as the top RB. I think there are (well, there definitely were, haven't tried this stuff in FOF7) some stiff penalties to playing guys in more significantly different position groups like this. It's something to think about.

[QuikSand]

There's something generally positive about "weird" guys.

I have long assumed/believed that the guys who are at outlier positions in weight (either really heavy or really light for their positions, and often unable to weight train in the desired direction) are a product of some "other" player generation system in-game, and that they are more likely to provide unexpected results (back in the day, this meant they were more likely to be creepers, I don't know wtf is the current equivalent of that assessment).

[QuikSand]

To MP - what did you like about WR Steve Glover? I don't know what to expect from him in the preseason movement - but I recall him seeming like an aberration to me as I sifted through pre-TC. No bars of real consequence, and no combines that seemed interesting, I don't recall. Have anything to go on there? (I know he was just a 7th rounder - but that looks like a guy I'd immediately pass over when I do my usual late-draft searching)

[QuikSand]

By the way, S Godfrey switches to LCB at 97% and looks perfectly fine there, so that seems like an easy move for us to make (that was, I believe, the plan when he was selected with an early pick).

I think moving him and cutting S Parise (which I advocate) would leave us thin at safety, but not unmanageable. We could move a guy like CB Springer over to play SS, as the three guys we have at S who look playable to me right now all seem better suited for the FS role (or maybe I'm just overvaluing run defense there).

[MalcPow]

I'd be interested in more elaboration here. This guy, to me, really feels like a learning opportunity.

4.43 v 4.48 -- does that cliff still trace back neatly to the now legendary thread on combine benchmarks?

Any broader takeaways on the %dev vs. current rating observation?

I don't want to let stuff like this get lost in the shuffle. The combine benchmarks thread was a great entree into understanding what was really good or really bad or comfortably in the realm of debate. Sorting a position group by different combine scores in any particular draft also presents a pretty clear picture that these scores are generated in a way that creates a normal distribution (occasionally with hard-coded cut-off points that remove a portion of the distribution but leave the rest of the distribution with its normal shape). There might be one WR with a 4.3 type 40 time in a draft (although seemingly more now with some of the FOF7 classes), but then there four or so in the 4.4ish range and then eight in the 4.45ish and then twelve or more in the 4.48ish range, etc etc. And it really doesn't take a research project to see this stuff. A quick sort by each combine in any given draft class will give you a sense of the smoothed shape of the distribution for that particular combine.

In this case, where a lot of WRs are clustered between the low 4.4s and 4.51, it's easy to find rough equivalence between 4.49 and 4.43 because we're not conditioned to see those as all that different. Others have used standard deviations as a good check in the past, and I think Greg's Analyzer even provides that sort of information. It's just a better way to look at things. Ok, this guy has pretty good bars. Hey, he's also one of the ten best players in the class in many of these combines. That should give you some confidence.

[MalcPow]

To MP - what did you like about WR Steve Glover? I don't know what to expect from him in the preseason movement - but I recall him seeming like an aberration to me as I sifted through pre-TC. No bars of real consequence, and no combines that seemed interesting, I don't recall. Have anything to go on there? (I know he was just a 7th rounder - but that looks like a guy I'd immediately pass over when I do my usual late-draft searching)

I'm looking back now too. I was trying to find bodies.

JR mentioned him as a late round guy.

SE Steve Glover might be there in the later rounds as a good value pick.

I didn't have much left in the bag o' interesting fellas and he didn't stand out in a negative way. So we threw him into the mix. We'll probably have to keep an eye on him. He's almost definitely a fringey talent guy. If the high route running is real, we might want to cut him just to avoid the target sucking.

[MalcPow]

I think our next steps are:

Cut S Parise.
Switch SS Godfrey to CB.
Sim Preseason.
Post a post-Preseason file for us to look at and possibly discuss (probably briefly) our cuts/starters.
Blast our way to the end of the season.
Talk it all out and sip our champagne.

[QuikSand]

I think our next steps are:

Cut S Parise.
Switch SS Godfrey to CB.
Sim Preseason.
Post a post-Preseason file for us to look at and possibly discuss (probably briefly) our cuts/starters.
Blast our way to the end of the season.
Talk it all out and sip our champagne.

Agree with this plan.

[MalcPow]

I will sim us through those steps here in a bit. Going to let our staff set gameplans unless somebody wants to offer something.

And don't feel like you can't speak up if you haven't been involved so far. These things work because people hop in and out. We'll definitely try to keep this going for enough of a career to see things take shape.

[aston217]

I'd be interested in more elaboration here. This guy, to me, really feels like a learning opportunity.

4.43 v 4.48 -- does that cliff still trace back neatly to the now legendary thread on combine benchmarks?

Any broader takeaways on the %dev vs. current rating observation?

I don't know what the combine accuracy slider does for that, but I did track a 5.29 dash OT with a monster RB bar by my (poor) scout in the latest CyFL draft, and after Ex2 (or maybe even before) it had come waaaaaaaaaay down.

The cliff for OTs is at 5.27, and his other combine scores were neither bad nor great. My guess is the cliff still stands. There might be exceptions, but a combine score that falls outside the boundaries this way is still a big red flag to me.

[Pyser]

this seems as good a place to ask as any.

somewhere along the way, maybe from jim, maybe a complete myth in my head, i thought i read combines are for that position only. meaning, if a s has combines of 4.45/16/7.30, lets say, and you move him to cb, those numbers change (but are hidden).

is that true? i've always ignored it, and based the switch mostly on size, but since i see a lot of swapping position talk here, felt it was a good time to ask.

[MalcPow]

Only Jim would be able to say for sure, but I think that's absolutely the case. The combines are some sort of representation of the underlying skill bar and they're generated in a position-specific way. Which I take as meaning I should care more about how different a guy's combines are relative to the position type they were generated for so I have some insight into what his actual ratings might be.

[aston217]

I think it's a safe assumption. The combines are generated based on the player's true bars (obviously with a range of randomness along the way). The rules for the bar-to-combine translation vary by position. So, you can't look at a 4.45 CB and think, "Well, that's a GREAT number of a safety, he's super fast for a safety".

The correct way to think instead would be, "A 4.45 (and all the other signs I can see) probably mean ____ bars for the CB. Given his weight, he will convert to S at 100%, so those bars will be the same."

Etc...

[QuikSand]

Back in the old days, when you could let rookies go unsigned -- we had a few cases of players getting drafted, position-switched, tossed back, and re-drafted at the new position. Their raw combine numbers changed dramatically (the guy I'm thinking of remained a pretty impressive pass rusher after switching from LB to DE, but his 40 time was much, much slower in absolute terms as a DE than it had been as an OLB).

[QuikSand]

edit - here's that guy, from FOF 2004:

theFOFL.com : Player >> Rex Pint (http://www.thefofl.com/players/player.php?player=11216)

OLB dash time 4.44
DE dash time 4.74 (the following year)

[MalcPow]

Haven't looked really but here's the end of PreSeason File:

Dropbox - groupthk_140911_EndPreSeason.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/abvdxd8br8h7ogv/groupthk_140911_EndPreSeason.zip?dl=0)

I ended up just playing Hampton out of position and having our staff handle gameplans. And I really was not used to having 70 guys... ended up mostly trying to keep our draft picks in place as I was moving through roster casualties. I will probably take a similar approach to final cuts. I might even let some of our "better" veterans go if it's close and they don't seem to be adding much more in the way of chemistry or something.

[MalcPow]

Here's a change tracking CSV for the whole league from the league scout's perspective. We are team 30. I think there's some fruitful work to do here cross-checking the league scout's view with our own scout's view. I may not be able to do that for awhile, but others feel free to dig in...

Dropbox - ChgTrck2014Ex.csv (https://www.dropbox.com/s/7vvcjy8b54c5xns/ChgTrck2014Ex.csv?dl=0)

[MalcPow]

For quick reference, we apparently crushed that draft, bros.

[MalcPow]

Mascarenas did a +13. Check him out on the Raiders roster. He looks very different. He's an 18/32 by our scout and inactive for them right now. Good chance he dies on the vine there and we never really get to see what happens with him. Guess we'll keep an eye out. *shurg*

[Julio Riddols]

Some huge jumpers there, wow.

[Julio Riddols]

Mascarenas did a +13. Check him out on the Raiders roster. He looks very different. He's an 18/32 by our scout and inactive for them right now. Good chance he dies on the vine there and we never really get to see what happens with him. Guess we'll keep an eye out. *shurg*

Maybe we should try and acquire him when he becomes free of their tyranny.

[MalcPow]

Looking a bit more closely... we had some misses too. WR Josue Shields went -11 by the league scout. I still think that's a starter for us, and the 46 future (league scout) vs 51 future (our scout) might be telling us that. We also took some hits on a number of flyer types, while hitting big on a few others.

So a mixed bag in some ways, which is to be expected with the number of picks we had.

[Julio Riddols]

Immediate thoughts:

Maybe we should have Solorio be the top RB with Hampton as the main backup. I feel like getting Hampton on the field as much as possible is a good idea. I think running our two stud FB's as frequently as possible out of the FB spot is also a good idea.

Preimsburg turned out way better than I expected. I wonder if that is where he will stay. If so, sweet. He and Sartori hate each other, but they look like they make a hell of a tandem.

I think Glover looks decent with a +3/+3. Wonder what others' opinions on him are. I see him as just a depth guy who can play in a pinch if injuries hit hard.

Griffin Tyson looks like a strong PR candidate.

Not too stoked about our G situation, but I think we have at least 2 passable guys there.

T looks solid though. Linquist especially.

Loendorf and Kedwell give us a pair of incredible specialists right out of the gate, so they were scores.

Love Dole at DE. Looks like a guy you just pencil in for the next 10-12 years at that spot.

Shea really boomed, and I have to say I am surprised. His END even has potential.

Abdullah actually came out looking like the better pass rusher from WLB, so I think we can just leave the pieces in place at LB.

FS Blaine McNeil, nice.

I have to say there only look to be a few weaknesses on this squad. Depth is a slight issue, but I feel like LB, G, WR, S are the main areas where improvement could be made.

Interested to see what Bishop does in the reg season, he was clearly our best QB in pre season.

Solorio looks like a find at RB.

[aston217]

Mascarenas 11/21->18/34. Will he get even better, or is he just a 30/30 kinda guy?

[Julio Riddols]

Shields is one of those guys that just confuses the hell out of me. Combines seemed to match bars, good in both.. Then he drops like that. I wonder if the drop sticks, or even continues.

[MalcPow]

I agree with a lot of that, Julio. Our LBs are pretty shaky... I'm actually tempted to run a 4-3. Abdullah looking like an interesting 34 WLB is my only real hesitation.

[MalcPow]

And starting Hampton over Solorio at RB would really just be for experiment purposes at this point. I may give it four games or something to start the year or give us some kind of mixed sample.

I'm also planning to sim this year at something silly like 25 on the injury setting. No reason to stay there going forward, I just want to crank through this first year quickly but still pay some sort of half-assed homage to randomness.

[Julio Riddols]

I'm on board with that.

[aston217]

Shields is one of those guys that just confuses the hell out of me. Combines seemed to match bars, good in both.. Then he drops like that. I wonder if the drop sticks, or even continues.

His bars were high enough that the drop could be legitimate. I'm thinking it is one of three things:

- our scout rated him better than advertised, but he'll recover modestly from the steep camp drop

- the drop is fake entirely and in another camp or two he'll be back closer to his original heights

- the drop has nothing to do with unmasking and we just got hit with volatility. he won't be what he should have been.

[QuikSand]

Guys of mine I think are easy cuts, just in case you're worried about that:

CB Stamm
one rookie QB (your pick)
T Miskiewicz (I actually like him, but with two serious rookies, not so much)
DT Lockett (old guy, we like our young fellas, so go young why not)

[MalcPow]

And ok... simmed us to the end of Season 1. Don't want to ruin the surprise just yet. Hampton started the first 4 games at RB and then we flipped it to Solorio.

Dropbox - groupthk_140911_EndSeason2014.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/lsak0go44fiq0ox/groupthk_140911_EndSeason2014.zip?dl=0)

[MalcPow]

We sucked basically. At one point we were 3-2, and, well, I thought we might have something. We did not in fact have something.

I think a few decent gameplans might have helped us. But I think I also underestimated how important it might be to have a run stopping NT in a 3-4. I've been running the 4-3 lately, and I feel like that's a bit more forgiving of a Shea type on the inside. We couldn't stop the run at all. We also couldn't run the ball. Or stop the pass. We... well, our punter was solid I think.

[QuikSand]

The TE was a welcome impact player, but that's not exactly what you build around. Lots here we can forgive as a function of abysmal cohesion and lots fo guys with low position experience. We have an intriguing core of guys to work with going forward... but we're going to have to improve quickly, as the bill comes due on all these rookies after only three more seasons.

[QuikSand]

We need to talk through S Blaine McNeil. What happened there?

[MalcPow]

TE Sartori took home the 2nd Team TE award. It looks like we had the easiest schedule of the other 3-13 teams. So we'll have the 1.1 and 1.11 (from DET) picks.

[QuikSand]

FWIW, if we want to move DT Shea outside, doing it during his rookie year (at 96%) is our best shot... at least I think that's still true. Worth talking through, I'd think, before someone turns over the season.

[MalcPow]

FWIW, if we want to move DT Shea outside, doing it during his rookie year (at 96%) is our best shot... at least I think that's still true. Worth talking through, I'd think, before someone turns over the season.

Good idea on Shea... and it actually looks like he can move to LDE with no change in ratings according the popup dialog.

Going back to look at McNeil as well.

[Julio Riddols]

I like those picks. I also was impressed with McNeil. Had a hell of a season, seems like quite a find for a 6th rounder.

I think it might behoove us to look for coaching upgrades. I think HC, DC, and Assistant could easily be improved on.

I also agree with the sentiment that most of the struggle was due to poor cohesion and a ton of youth. This team wasn't ready for prime time yet. Having the 1.1 and 1.11 picks though, I think we can make some serious progress this year.

[Julio Riddols]

Geiger really put up some numbers too.

[Julio Riddols]

I think I am glad Levon Strong didn't fall to us.

[Julio Riddols]

Brody Murphy though.. He looks like he was worth the 1.1.

[Julio Riddols]

We're going to have lots of money to play with next year too, I think we'll make a big leap.

[MalcPow]

It looks like McNeil was an "interesting" pick who still had all combines in the plausibly "good" ranges and a middling 50ish or better static punishing hitter bar at a point in the draft where those two ingredients start to become pretty rare. 4.59 is right there on the edge of the cliff (in the benchmarks thread), as is the 15 bench, but they're both still in the mix for fairly high potential ratings. The other combines are more comfortably in good ranges. (Other than BJump, which is almost entirely correlated to return ratings for DBs as I understand it.)

If we're talking about the combine settings creating more guys who get scores that are artificially pinned really high, there might also be guys who are getting some scores pinned artificially low (but without crossing certain thresholds). That could be who McNeil is.

Pre-Draft Screenie:

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/745/yb9Ia4.png

[Julio Riddols]

Man, that really does throw some clouds over the certainty that the draft in 2007 used to have. I think I really like it.

[QuikSand]

With McNeil, the only thing my glance picks up is that PSpec 43, not as rare as it used to be, that suggests he's got either zone or int better than the blue ranges... but I don't get the leap from there to all-around quality player. I'll try to fit in his combines more clearly later I guess.

[QuikSand]

So, MP, say you saw S McNeil exactly as he was, but with one change...benched 11 not 15. Then he's probably all mirage, undraftable (with a normal draft complement, at least)since that's below a threshold level?

[aston217]

A 43 PSPEC for a safety, is that even a blue score? 37 is the cutoff below which it's awful. I would expect 43 to be pretty typical and could mean any of a big range of scores, including very low ones.

For me if he had benched below a cutoff (is 11 below that for safeties? I don't remember), then yeah, particularly as PH is a higher bar and BnR isn't too low either.

What stands out to me here is just a really high ST bar, and low development, and no bad combines. Don't think I could have predicted a jump, though.

[MalcPow]

So, MP, say you saw S McNeil exactly as he was, but with one change...benched 11 not 15. Then he's probably all mirage, undraftable (with a normal draft complement, at least)since that's below a threshold level?

Probably. The reality of my process is that I've tried to set up some tools that flag guys like this for me (whose important combines aren't outside certain thresholds) and then I look more closely at those guys. If McNeil benched 11 or ran a 4.69 dash, he probably doesn't get flagged for me as interesting unless he's got tremendous bars or some other particularly incredible combine or other weird/intriguing attribute. In which case, I just don't end up looking at him. I don't really classify those guys as undraftable or guaranteed to suck, I just don't really start trying to look at them until I run out of interesting guys. It's a time-saving thing more than anything.

I didn't look at McNeil and see a guaranteed star. But he had some things going for him at a point in my quick rankings where "interesting" was starting to mean no combine type guys who didn't have 2.5 raw grades. And no combine is definitely an interesting attribute. I almost always look at those guys.

[MalcPow]

The old benchmarks thread lists high and low ranges for Grade and Adj Grade by position as well. The kind of cool little nugget in there is that the low end of the Grade threshold for the really talented players was always no combine guys. The high end of the Grade threshold for the really crappy guys was also no combine guys. No combine is kind of a variance play. When you get to certain parts of the draft, they can definitely be your best chance at some upside if their bars look at all interesting.

[MalcPow]

A 43 PSPEC for a safety, is that even a blue score? 37 is the cutoff below which it's awful. I would expect 43 to be pretty typical and could mean any of a big range of scores, including very low ones.

For me if he had benched below a cutoff (is 11 below that for safeties? I don't remember), then yeah, particularly as PH is a higher bar and BnR isn't too low either.

What stands out to me here is just a really high ST bar, and low development, and no bad combines. Don't think I could have predicted a jump, though.

43 is not a blue pos score for a Safety. I think it might be helpful to start thinking of the combines as being "masked" or "not masked" now as well. I'm not really saying anything about McNeil's combines offers reason to believe there's a direct correlation between those scores and the bars he's now showing. Maybe it's more like the point I was trying to make about Mascarenas (which may end up being wrong), which was essentially that even with a heavy mask, his bars were too low (looking like a 15/15 player) to let him be a 70/70 player or something. The parallel logic here would be that a 4.59/15/7.21/43 Safety has the combines of say a 45/45 player or something. If those combines are heavily masked downward, he could still be a 65/65 player. Or conversely, if heavily masked upward, a 25/25 player.

I offer all that for discussion. I don't mean to imply I have heavily tested this and absolutely believe it. It just seems plausible in multiple ways, and it has been generally working for me. And it may be helpful as context for others as they develop their own thoughts.

[MalcPow]

And Quik or JR, if one of you guys wants to push us through staff hiring and stuff to FA1-2 or something, feel free. Maybe post that you've got it so there's no duplicate effort.

[aston217]

That's helpful. In that example I wouldn't think of it as masked scores, just the variability possible (as always has been) with middle regime combines.

The LB being poor at pass rush or a 4.53 corner being good at cover would sound more like a masked score. As either the ranges changed, or more likely something wacky happened the day the player went through the combine score generator function.

[Julio Riddols]

I'll handle it right now then.

[Julio Riddols]

Our New Head Coach:

<a href="http://imgur.com/LEAVEeZ"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/LEAVEeZ.png" title="Hosted by imgur.com"/></a>

The theory here is that he is young, great with young talent, discipline, and scouting/interviewing are high. Hopefully he will develop further.

I ran with the same kind of theme for our other coaches, basically wiping everyone out except the Strength and Conditioning coach.

<a href="http://imgur.com/YzRs4qK"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/YzRs4qK.png" title="Hosted by imgur.com"/></a>

Young, decent play caller, works well with young players, scouts as well as most of the other available OC Candidates. at 33, I am hoping we caught this guy on his way up.

<a href="http://imgur.com/Wxr3pHI"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/Wxr3pHI.png" title="Hosted by imgur.com"/></a>

35 year old DC, same reasoning as above.

<a href="http://imgur.com/fuPq0fz"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/fuPq0fz.png" title="Hosted by imgur.com"/></a>

Another 35 year old coach, all our coaches are under 40. disregarded playcalling since he is an assistant coach, main focus here was scouting and young talent.

[Julio Riddols]

I am hoping intelligence doesn't mean anything for coaches, as I seem to recall Jim saying it is basically a useless bar at this point. As you can see, I basically said no to intelligence.

[Julio Riddols]

Our ticket prices barely changed, not even worth noting really. Just hit recommend on them.

[Julio Riddols]

Holy balls, I think we have a QB. Ever seen a guy like this? LOOK at that Sole score. Is he also an affinity match?

<a href="http://imgur.com/Me0XRmf"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/Me0XRmf.png" title="Hosted by imgur.com" /></a>

[Julio Riddols]

Couple stud WR in the class as well. I'll get the file up so we can all take a look.

[MalcPow]

Good stuff, and sweet looking bars on the coaches. And I love seeing that the color scheme I always set when I play transferred over with the files! It's basically a rip-off of a cuervo set-up. I love me some shades of blue I guess.

[MalcPow]

And then you blind me with yellow! Come on man. :)

[Julio Riddols]

Dropbox - groupthk.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/pxw1a679273ilpo/groupthk.zip?dl=0)

[Julio Riddols]

That QB is giving me a man crush. I have never seen a no combine guy rated that highly.

[Julio Riddols]

A couple reallly nice C's in this draft too. If one of those WR doesn't fall to 1.11...

[MalcPow]

A couple reallly nice C's in this draft too. If one of those WR doesn't fall to 1.11...

We talkin' bout Centers? Not the offensive skill weapons that I die for... We talkin' bout Centers?

[Julio Riddols]

Haha, these C's are that good I guess.

[Julio Riddols]

I actually believe C is one of the most important positions for an offense, but I'm weird that way.

[MalcPow]

I actually believe C is one of the most important positions for an offense, but I'm weird that way.

I'm up for being convinced. It's certainly a place where we can improve.

[Julio Riddols]

I wanna talk about that QB.

[Julio Riddols]

I'm pretty glad we have the number 1 pick, slightly upset we paid for Bishop, but by the time the rook is ready to get paid, Bishops contract will be up.

[Julio Riddols]

I just don't think I have ever seen 1: A QB with 49 sole, and 2: A no combine guy rated as the number 2 player in the draft.

[MalcPow]

Interview says he is... Hard to Read...

[Julio Riddols]

Haha.. Do you think he is the guy at 1.1 or are you hesitant?

I feel like he is a freak.

[Julio Riddols]

I also thought he was an affinity before, but his birthday is close, not actually within the realm it would need to be. Thankfully he is not a conflict.

[aston217]

I just don't think I have ever seen 1: A QB with 49 sole, and 2: A no combine guy rated as the number 2 player in the draft.

Cary Money was definitely up there. Maybe not 49, though...

I think QB's gotta be the pick here. Good thing we didn't pick QB last year, right?

[Julio Riddols]

Friggin' Cary Money. He was still good even with those shit bars, but he did have some nice combines.

[MalcPow]

He's definitely a no-brainer 1.1 pick for me. The only argument against would be a self-inflicted challenge of some sort.

[MalcPow]

Interview also revealed his 99 Intelligence. And he has a female agent. This is a pretty enlightened cat we're talking about here.

[Julio Riddols]

I don't think we should let the CPU corrupt this kid. But if the goal is to win without a stud QB, well, lets get that WR instead then.

[aston217]

I suppose if the goal is learning about roster construction and how to draft a good team, we should avoid high picks in general and pick numerous players in the mid-rounds and later. There isn't much mystery to "Incredible QB on team with stars does well", I suppose. But what if he's somehow not? That would be informative too, perhaps.

In short, I think what this team really needs at 1.1 is a capable long snapper.

[MalcPow]

WR Rex Reilly is inspiring some Martin Lawrence "Mike Lowery" voicing for me over here. Which is a double-plus attribute. That said, the dangerous similarity to Rick Reilly makes me think this guy is capable of a long career of churning out massive turds each week and stealing giant paychecks. TOSS-UP.

I don't think we've really laid the groundwork for a challenge career here. Adachi makes total sense. There will still be plenty of time to talk about mid-round draft picks. Probably more now that we don't have fifty of them.

I am interested in more stuff like what JR mentioned about Centers though. I haven't quite figured out when to just draft a very talented player and when to make sure I get certain very important spots filled with the right sorts of guys. I don't think stud WRs are overpowered anymore like they were in the last game, for example, but I do think you can surround a mediocre QB with a lot of offensive talent and get very good success.

[Julio Riddols]

I think my opinion on C's is a carryover from 2007. It seemed like (and kind of still seems like) centers were the most valuable piece of the offensive line. When I have had really good teams, I have had really good Centers.

[Julio Riddols]

And given where this roster is, a killer O-line is going to make it really pop. I almost unfailingly value the trenches more than the skill positions unless there is an obvious stud at a skill spot.

[aston217]

I always feel that centers get passed over (in MP at least) and there are quality centers available later. Sometimes, really great centers available in round 2-3. But I agree that they're an important part of the line. Particularly the run game, I've thought.

IMO it starts with the trenches on both sides of the ball. Ideally you have everything, but you can try to make do with skilled WRs, RBs, LBs, even DBs who aren't necessarily 70/70. But there's little substitute for a line full of 70/70 dudes on either side of the ball -- JMO.

[QuikSand]

We talkin' bout Centers? Not the offensive skill weapons that I die for... We talkin' bout Centers?

The whole point was to leave AI out of this. It's just for practice.

[QuikSand]

Okay, thoughts on moving ahead.

-I want to learn. I want to try to win, but if don't think we learn and see the max by going out and signing sure thing veterans everywhere we feel we have some need. I want to build up young players, and maybe learn about getting value from marginal players.

-We have a nice base in place, clearly. I'd rather see some of these young marginal guys "play out" than see them all just get jettisoned for incrementally shinier objects in the name of winning 9, not 7, games this year.

-I think the answer here is to put some limits on our ability/willingness to sign free agents...meaning our own picks should remain the core of the team going forward.

-and that says draft the QB, accept the dead cap space from Bishop as a fair price, then work out the specifics for the goals above (like we can only sign 3 FA a year, one open, one under a certain $ amt, and one minsal).

[johnnyshaka]

Read this thread last night but didn't have game access so I couldn't really dig in but I've downloaded the file and will try to have a look at things today.

Love this sort of thing and it's been a long time since the last one I've seen.

[MalcPow]

Okay, thoughts on moving ahead.

-I want to learn. I want to try to win, but if don't think we learn and see the max by going out and signing sure thing veterans everywhere we feel we have some need. I want to build up young players, and maybe learn about getting value from marginal players.

-We have a nice base in place, clearly. I'd rather see some of these young marginal guys "play out" than see them all just get jettisoned for incrementally shinier objects in the name of winning 9, not 7, games this year.

-I think the answer here is to put some limits on our ability/willingness to sign free agents...meaning our own picks should remain the core of the team going forward.

-and that says draft the QB, accept the dead cap space from Bishop as a fair price, then work out the specifics for the goals above (like we can only sign 3 FA a year, one open, one under a certain $ amt, and one minsal).

I'm in pretty much total agreement. Should we just rule out FA1 entirely? I end up playing that way most of the time.

[QuikSand]

I'll be around to do something here around 5ET.

[johnnyshaka]

Just doing a quick run through of the draft class and noting a few guys that catch my eye...in no particular order:

QB Adachi - Obviously.
CB Buddy Mason - potential masked pair with a high PH...combine is pretty good but might not live up to the bars. Scouts say VU.

Crap, have a meeting I forgot about...more later.

[MalcPow]

I'll be around to do something here around 5ET.

I'd like to give you the lead role on this thing, if you're willing. I'm up for handling draft strategy and advice, but I think you'd bring a better heartbeat to our pacing. I'll try to dig into the class a bit and maybe post a list of guys for us to think about or discuss. Very much on board with you driving our progress through things though.

[johnnyshaka]

More guys who caught my eye:

RB Tanner Garner - perhaps a candidate to switch to WR?

FS Andre Greeley - late round flyer on a masked pair who should be able to make the move to CB and could be a special teams allstar

CB Paxton Durand - Looks like a nickel/dime guy with ST skills

More in a bit...

[QuikSand]

Okay, here's my plan. Tonight, I will get into the game, and run through early free agency. If you want me to do something, let me know.

Absent any specific input, my plan is to:

-rearrange our offensive chemistry system to build it all around QB Adachi, no great loss - we never really did a lot with the group we have in place now

-pick up a small number (like 3 split up as above) actual new signings, along with re-signing a decent number of our own pending free agents

-get us up to the rookie draft (and maybe even a few picks deep into it, unless I hear an objection), so you guys can have at it with your rookie salivation escapades

Might be 9-10ET before I can get through this stuff - so go do your interviews and so forth while you still have an easy pre-draft file up and running.

[MalcPow]

Sounds good. I'll put a pref list together with some notes that should help with the draft stuff.

[QuikSand]

-rearrange our offensive chemistry system to build it all around QB Adachi, no great loss - we never really did a lot with the group we have in place now

By the way, if the leadership comes together as I hope, we will also bring aboard impact rookies WR Shields and RT Clinton into this grouping, which would be nice as well. Stay tuned.

[MalcPow]

Adachi does only have a 36 personality for what it's worth. Will that make him a semi-useless core chemistry guy? Or do the really boisterous leader types still find a way to muster affinities?

[Julio Riddols]

I think holding on to Bishop as a backup for the first contract of the rookie's career is a good idea. The timing would be perfect, we let Bishop walk when it is time to re-sign Adachi.

[QuikSand]

Adachi does only have a 36 personality for what it's worth. Will that make him a semi-useless core chemistry guy? Or do the really boisterous leader types still find a way to muster affinities?

It depends on the personality of the leaders... guys up into the 90s brig the best out of everyone. A leader with pers of only 50-60 wouldn't even register with Bishop. I will try to build something, but might let the triple affinity structure go, since we're really not that committed to it.

[QuikSand]

Jotting down:

possible leaders
RB9 Stevens 3-4 34 97 +with 10-11 QBs only so far
TE7 Tanner Lyons 5-6 98 64 +with 10-11 QBs only so far
C6 Harvey Dubey 3-4 64 95 ++RT Clinton ++C Patterson

QB5 Cornelius Meador strong triple affinity

this is pretty bleak.

[Julio Riddols]

What if we just stick with the current affinity structure and just build everything around Adachi without catering to his lacking personality?

[MalcPow]

Draft Thoughts

1.1 QB Dustin Adachi - Pretty obvious franchise QB for us. The no combine does open up some small amount of uncertainty I suppose, but we'd be silly to pass him up.

1.11

We spent some time talking about interior OL types earlier in the thread. I'm not entirely sure who will or won't be a conflict/affinity under our new structure, but this is how I see some of the interior OL guys at the top of the class.

LG Bobby Huard - As safe a bet as you will find. 80/80 type G. Value of that is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
C Scott Lynch and C Lonnie Samuels - I have Lynch and Samuels as basically the same kind of impact. Both are going to be very good Centers. Lynch looks like he'd become a crappy leader if he stayed with us forever or something. I'd let affinity/coin-flip settle the difference between these two.
LG Skip Carpenter - Another very high probability 70 type player.

Other guys to consider...

WRs Rex Reilly and Angel Joseph - Think they are both 60+ type players at a position where we are lacking.
RDT Chance Codina - Endurance is a little unsettling but I'm still in.
LDT Oscar Biggs - Similar to Codina. Probably similar value.
RCB Alan Pascal - He looks really good to me.
RDE Wyatt Barlow - The Red Flag is the only thing stopping me.
RB Greg Andrews - Got a VU interview (and Kirkhughes was VO).

It's really a roster construction question. I think we can get a very good interior OL guy. We probably have no chance at WR Rex Reilly but I wouldn't be shocked if Angel Joseph got to us. RB Greg Andrews looks intriguing, but I'm not sure there's enough "true stud" potential to bring him in when we already have some solid options. The DTs would both be upgrades for us, especially if we're considering a move to 4-3 (which we may not be). I don't think we're going to want a Red Flag guy like DE Barlow if we have really good alternatives, but I think he's going to be good. The CB Pascal probably goes in front of us, but I feel really good about him being another guy who is a 60+ type player.

My general experience with SP (and MP too I think, in large part) is that certain positions, namely DE and CB, require a top of the 1st round kind of investment to get 60 or 70 type players. Looking back, we probably should have just taken CB Dan Newsome last year instead of doing the Godfrey position switch. I may be over-valuing Pascal because of that, but I think Pascal is basically this year's Newsome, a 60 floor CB with some upside at being better. That just feels more rare to me. TEs, FBs, interior OL, I've had success landing those sorts of guys later, but the four guys discussed above are in a separate class from the 3rd round 50ish types I think we can find, the G Huard especially.

I would probably rank things:

WRs
CB Pascal
Stud OLs (Huard, Lynch/Samuels, Carpenter)
DTs Codina/Biggs
DE Barlow
RB Andrews

A few names who should or might be around for our 2nd rounder...

TE Randy Negrelli
DE Alexis Akbar
RB Norm Clark
LT Blaine McKnight
WR Freddie Flynn

And I'd probably want to see what happened and re-assess from there.

[QuikSand]

Details to come. This chem shit likely not worth the trouble here. QB looks good but not breathtaking on roster.

http://sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/groupthk_2014_postcamp.zip

Have at it, boys.

[QuikSand]

OL chem setup is obvious

At RB, we have options... if we're willing to cut FB Clayton, we'd open up a leadership spot for one of Stevens (fits QB scheme) or Burdge (aff with Solorio), both of whom are guys I think could be fairly effective as a RB2/RB3.

At WR/TE, Lyons just covers up the conflist between our other TEs, and is a plus with our QBs, though not a great leader himself

I could be persuaded to just dump this whole effort and just sit back and watch you guys draft.

[QuikSand]

I burned a "free" FA pickup on a nice young DT, I think he gives is nice options at DL.

I'd really like to add a quality CB
C/G clear needs, but when in draft?
Let's get a KR guy out of this draft
One more good LB
WR, as always

[QuikSand]

Notes on KR rookies

RB Fike 6.4 53
WR Arnold 4.3 63 <---
WR Reilly stud
CB Wheeler 4.4 49 <---

[MalcPow]

I think the file is from postcamp last year? The file name seems to imply that as well. Link it again?

[QuikSand]

sorry...try this

Dropbox - groupthk -start 2015 draft.zip (https://www.dropbox.com/s/uqj4qimk65pd6l7/groupthk%20-start%202015%20draft.zip?dl=0)

[QuikSand]

Sorry about the file last night, must have been over my upload limit. Resorted to DropBox, guess that works fine.

[QuikSand]

Notes on KR rookies

RB Fike 6.4 53
WR Arnold 4.3 63 <---
WR Reilly stud
CB Wheeler 4.4 49 <---

Is there any special trick to rafting return specialists? With WR and DB, I think it's the broad jump that correlates, right? And with RB we have nada, as I recall.

So...with a guy like Arnold, I think he had the best jump at WR, and let's say his interview reinforced the good blue range. Then what? We draft him with high confidence at KR? Or is this still partially crapshoot?

[QuikSand]

Anyone feel like exploring what trade it would take to move up to pick 1.3 to try to land the WR? That would feel like a monster combo to build around right there. Of course we'd have to start paying them both right as they start to peak...

[QuikSand]

The Giants want out picks at 1.11 and 2.03, plus next year's 1st rounder to move up to 1.3. If Reilly is on the board, I think that could be worth doing.

[MalcPow]

The return stuff is still a bit of a crapshoot in my experience. There are some guys with ridiculous BJump scores at the positions where that is a tell, with a potentially maxed return bar as well, and you can be confident about them. I think we can be confident that the guys we're looking at here will actually have some return skills, but they're all in a "nothing all that special" combine range and they're not even showing an uninterviewed bar that touches the max. The best KR bar of the guys with good BJumps is WR Bert Leopold. He looks a fine receiver, but the conflict and the fact he probably goes off the board in the 1st make me think he's not our guy for this role.

I don't have a ton of confidence that we'd definitely be getting something better than the handful of guys still in FA with 70ish scores. But I also don't really have this angle figured out.

[MalcPow]

And I'm cool with trading up if Reilly is there. Interview calls him Overrated and knocks his bars down a tick into "this guy is very good but not an 80+ guy" range, but still, he's a high endurance playmaker and my offenses tend to suck without at least one guy like that.

[QuikSand]

You okay if I run the draft, trade up for Reilly pending availability, and then run it to our early 3rd rounder?

[Ben E Lou]

I don't have time to follow as quickly as y'all move at times, but I'll jump in where I can, and would love to contribute a game plan some seasons.

As far as PR/KR, I just get good scouts and look for high bars + high % developed. Grab a guy like that in the later rounds and you have a solid return guy for 4 years at a low cost.

[QuikSand]

I'd really rather MP take the draft segments, if you're willing. If there's an intriguing guy you like, I'd rather you be there to call the audible and trade/whatever to land him, rather than us sit around and see how he looks in Bills' camp.

[MalcPow]

I'd really rather MP take the draft segments, if you're willing. If there's an intriguing guy you like, I'd rather you be there to call the audible and trade/whatever to land him, rather than us sit around and see how he looks in Bills' camp.

That works. I'll run us through the draft and post a file in the next hour or two. You guys throw out targets that tickle your fancy and I'll integrate with my own stuff.

[QuikSand]

Okay...to keep the dialog going, NY will take our 134+1 for the pick at 1.3, with G Huard off the board at 1.2, and Reilly there. Let's consider that specifically - that saves our early 2nd here, which I had real reservations about losing.

Do it?