Legends of Sri Lanka [Archive] - Page 4 - Front Office Football Central

Brian Swartz

01-10-2018, 06:57 PM

December

World Team Cup Finals
Sri Lanka vs. Spain

#1 vs. #2. Last two world champions. Couldn't have a better setup here. Everything pretty much went as expected, leading up to the critical clash on Thursday between Ritwik Dudwadkar and Martin Zarco. We faced elimination with Spain up 2-1, but in reality they were in just as much jeopardy as Edward Cortina(45th) was a sure bet to lose the final rubber to Mooljee. Winner of this match would take it. Ended up being fairly anticlimactic, with Dudwakar wrapping up a perfect 7-for-7 year against Zarco with his most dominant win of the group, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2. Points were 93-59 ... this was not even remotely close.

Sri Lanka wins 3-2, and regains the title! World champions for the 9th time -- and Prakash Mooljee clinches it in his final professional match under my direction, a 6-1, 6-0, 6-1 bloodbath against Cortina on Friday. That's a great way to go out -- Mooljee is the only player to be involved in all of our titles. The first three just on the doubles team, but still.

World Team Cup Playoffs

** Finland vs. Bulgaria -- Two low-ranking Level 1 nations trying to hang on to their top-level status. Both have Top 50 singles player and nobody else in the Top 200. Finland took the doubles, and then got the headline with Aikio over Trashilov in straight sets. Bulgaria goes down, 4-1.

** Peru vs. Croatia -- The once-proud Peru team is back after a thrashing in the promotion playoffs last year. They got another one here, with Croatia skunking them 5-0. The combination of the aging Cojanovic(43rd) and the young Svajnovic(49th) makes them more than good enough to hang at the top level.

** Russia vs. Hungary -- Sucks that this was the draw. Russia is ranked 6th in the world and it's merely a lousy group that even has them participating; meanwhile the Hungarians are a solid 14th and the Level 2 champs this year. I'd like to them both up, but that's not going to happen. Bottom line is nobody for Hungary can match up with #18 Alexey Alenichev, who was the difference in powering the Russians to a 3-2 victory. Hungary was in the demotion playoffs a year ago so this was much better, but with Jeno Maitra(47th) 31 and not getting any younger, it would seem they've done what they are going to do for the time being.

** Slovak Republic vs. Australia -- Somebody was going up here in a matchup of the last two nations Hungary beat in the Level-2 playoffs. This was another whitewash, with the Australians dropping just a single set. Just a few years ago, the land down under was all the way down at Level 4. That seems ancient history with the talents of Jeffrey Lusher(28, 45th) and Liam Curran(27, 62nd) giving them two capable players and a claim at being a legit Level-1 country. And now, it's official for the Aussies.

Brian Swartz

01-10-2018, 06:58 PM

Final WTC Rankings

1. Sri Lanka -- 2854
2. Spain -- 2312
3. United States -- 2250
4. Argentina -- 2114
5. France -- 2101
6. Russia -- 2077
7. Czech Republic -- 2036
8. Germany -- 2033
9. Morocco -- 1946
10. Croatia -- 1938

I'm pretty certain this is the first time I've ever seen Morocco in the Top 10. The tough draw this year ended up working in our favor; because we got through it unscathed, we were able to open up a record-high margin. That's a couple years worth of buffer, over 500 points. Next year we start in Group 4, along with the United States(3rd), Germany(8th), and Croatia(10th). Not as tough as this year, but still rougher than average.

Brian Swartz

01-10-2018, 07:02 PM

The big news for me at the end of the year was the expected termination of services for 32-year-old Prakash Mooljee. He's shown he can still play, but I need a new youngster. Here's how his career titles break down:

** WTF -- 2
** Slam -- 8
** Only player on all 10 WTC world championship teams(first three as doubles only)
** Masters -- 15
** Olympics -- 1
** 500 -- 12
** 250 -- 11
** Challenger -- 17
** Futures -- 8
** Juniors -- 17

143 weeks as #1 is a national record, and 8th all-time. #2 in the Sri Lanka Legends rundown, after Mehul. Quite a career for Mooljee, but he'll soldier on without me(as I write this a few weeks later, he is still without a manager unfortunately).

Our newcomer is Amrik Kasaravalli(14y 28w)

** Endurance -- 3.2(horrible)
** Talent -- 4.4(decent)
** Strength -- 3.6(pretty good)
** Speed -- 2.6(poor)
** Mentality -- 4.0(good)
** Aging -- 97%(worst for late-peaking you can get, same as Mooljee)

7.6 TE is by far the worst I've had for a created player. 6.2 SS isn't terrible, but pretty subpar. 13.8 total, similar to Chiba but with the low endurance I expect him to be the worst player I've had. I could fire and try again, but I'm saving everything for when Mehul goes trainer. So I'll just need to do the best I can with him. That's just an abysmal endurance when I go for being as good as possible there. Ugh. By comparison, here's a few other on the TESS scale(though it doesn't include mentality,. which IMO is as important as strength/speed):

Mateo Kaspar -- 9.3 TE, 7.6 SS, 16.9 total

Prakash Mooljee -- 9.0 TE, 6.9 SS, 15.9 total
Anil Mehul -- 9.1 TE, 6.7 SS, 15.8 total
Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 8.9 TE, 6.6 SS, 15.5 total
Girish Girsh -- 8.6 TE, 6.1 SS, 14.7 total
Sushant Chiba -- 8.7 TE, 5.2 SS, 13.9 total

Kasaravalli will definitely struggle, relatively speaking. Of course, until Chiba I did multiple players and tossed the inferior ones. So it's luck of the draw -- just bad luck this time out.

Brian Swartz

01-10-2018, 07:04 PM

Top Player Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(FRA, 28) -- 17,710

Another dominant year, faltering only on clay.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(SRI, 26) -- 10,330

The clear #2, and inching closer.

3. Guus Dircx(NLD, 26) -- 7,550

4. Martin Zarco(ESP, 28) -- 7,460

5. Hsuang-tsung Teng[b](NZL, 27) -- 6,750

Briefly cracked the Top 4, but couldn't stay there. Still the odd man out of this elite grouping.

6. [b]Gillo Fangio(ITA, 29) -- 4,130

The big finish put him back in the 'best of the rest' spot.

7. Ruben Piazzola(CHI, 25) -- 4,090

8. Prakash Mooljee(SRI, 32) -- 3,980

No longer in my control. We'll see what happens to him, but still important for us in the World Team Cup, as he'll be the representative there for another year or two.

9. Gilberto Chinaglia(ITA, 24) -- 3,260

Playing challengers a year ago, and now world no. 9. Time to see what he's got.

10. Alexey Nikitin(UKR, 24) -- 2,990

Still appears that his manager went AWOL. If so, we won't see him after the AO, and he'll be so out-of-shape by then that it'll be a quick departure.

11. Dick Blake(USA, 24)

13. Karl Kaspar(FRA, 22)

Definitely the best of the young guns, and looking like the best bet to succeed his older brother.

17. Cristian Castegali(MEX, 24)

20. Hmal Sbai(23, MOR)

24. Stuart Pargeter(24, USA)

28. Rob Lock(22, USA)

29. Hugo Cordova(22, USA)

Lots of Americans, as ever.

54. Stanley Edleman(20, USA)

And here's another one.

64. Sushant Chiba(20, SRI)

224. Anil Mehul(40, SRI)

53rd in doubles.

Brian Swartz

01-13-2018, 11:58 AM

2057 Preview

1. Mateo Kaspar(88%, 8.97, -0.14)

First big decline ... and a little too big, I think his skill will bounce back up a bit. Still there's no question that Kaspar is going to start being more vulnerable. He may even lose the rare match on hardcourts this year. In his favor is the fact that almost all of the other top players are in decline as well. It's been a great era, but it's now clearly on the far side of the peak. I didn't bother with the Gorritipe comparion post this year, but suffice to say if Kaspar has another year like the last one, he'll draw virtually even.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(92%, 8.81, -0.02)

Not actually worse, it just looks like it. Skill/service are still at 5.3/4.0, but serve made it to 4.1 briefly and they did improve slightly over the course of the year. Just not enough to register as a higher amount, and athleticism of course dipped a bit which is the reason for the small decrease. This next year is actually probably going to be his best. Dudwadkar is the one player not over the hill yet, but the slowdown in xp gains has started to be noticeable and will become more so.

All of which means he will be playing the role of legacy spoiler now, much like Mehul did with Iglar many years ago. Ritwik will still lose to Kaspar most of the time, even almost all of the time, but he probably gets in another win or two here or there to take a bit of his thunder and slow down his record-setting pace.

3. Guus Dircx(88%, 8.67, -0.13)

Still quite good. These guys aren't falling off a cliff at this point; they're just a step back of what they used to be.

4. Martin Zarco(88%, 8.64, -0.09)

5. Hsuang-tsung Teng(89%, 8.52, -0.03)

Teng hasn't fallen off as much, but still looks like the odd man out.

6. Gillo Fangio(84%, 8.49, -0.23)

That's pretty ugly, but Fangio and Zarco have both trained their doubles abilities up at least halfway. Fangio dropped three spots to 8th and nearly further, but a big finish gained him almost all the territory he lost. Temporarily, anyway.

7. Ruben Piazzola(91%, 8.39, -0.04)

Despite a small drop here, this should be Piazzola's best year. In any case he's not falling as fast as those ahead of him will, so I expect the top Chilean to see somewhat better results. Not much though; he's still just not as good as the older players around him.

8. Prakash Mooljee(78%, 8.23, -0.11)

As good as one can expect. It'll be interesting to see who picks him up, and what happens to him over the next couple of years.

9. Gilberto Chinaglia(95%, 8.14, ??)

Rare to have a Top-10 player who wasn't even ranking high enough to garner an evaluation the year before. Chinaglia is unquestionably the surprise player of 2056. He's overrated somewhat for his abilities. Athleticism is decent but nothing special and skill isn't on the same par as other elite players. An excellent serve and clay mastery are an unusual tandem, but he's going to improve for at least two more years so he'll be around a while as his betters decline.

10. Alexey Nikitin(94%, 8.50, +0.03)

Still no evidence of activity, which is unfortunate. He could really have made some more headway and been an interesting force. Still could be to a lesser degree, if his manager returns, but after several months off that seems unlikely.

7 of the Top 8 are in significant decline now, and add Nikitin into the mix and the quality of top-flight tennis will take a nosedive here. For the first time in several years, fresh blood is badly needed.

11. Dick Blake(94%, 8.37, +0.01)

Disappointing; one would hope for greater improvement from a still-young player. Still should be enough for Blake to move up a couple spots and get onto the first page.

12. Matthew Panter(90%, 8.33, +0.03)

Briefly made it up to 10th this year, but he's now seen his best tennis. Hanging out just beyond the first page is about the best we can hope for from him.

13. Karl Kaspar(99%, 8.16, ??)

Runner-up for surprise of the year. Only 22 and already knocking on that Top-10 door. Not nearly the player older brother Mateo is, but my pick for heir apparent. Karl is strong and has very well-developed technique for his age. I don't think he's good enough to push much higher just yet, but time is most definitely on Karl's side, and we already have proof that his manager knows what he's doing.

15. Gregory Mackenzie(93%, 8.36, -0.02)

Like Blake, he just didn't get the job done training this year. On the court, he's ranked exactly where he was as well. Elite serve but hasn't improved his play at the back of the court as he should have. I said last season he'd soon become the top American. Should have, and probably still should, but not yet.

17. Cristian Castelgali(94%, 8.30, ??)

For the first time in memory, Mexico has a top-quality player. Has the technique of a guy ready to challenge at the top level, and a good mental game, but athleticism holds him back somewhat. Still ready to challenge for the Top 10, though perhaps not quite there yet.

20. Hamal Sbai(96%, 8.44, ??)

Sbai is the reason for Morocco's rise, and is that rare player who actually hasn't put enough effort into his serve. Elite baseline play, good mental game and above-average speed. Sbai is somewhat underrated where he is, and should be Top 10 before the year's out. Good endurance gives him plenty to work with in continuing to improve. Definitely ought to be Top 5 at a minimum eventually. Hamal is already the second-best player in Morrocan history; none have ever done better than 14th, a record that should fall soon. Rates as the world's 8th-best on paper right now.

24. Stuart Pargeter(96%, 8.17, +0.02)

Surprised to see him slip a spot in the rankings last year. Pargeter should be improving more than this, but he's still got time to make a move higher.

29. Rob Lock(97%, 7.96, ??)

Here come the new Americans. Lock is 22 years old, athletic and reasonably dedicated. Still has work to do.

30. Hugo Cordova(97%, 7.86, ??)

Here's a strange profile. Also 22, Cordova already has the best serve I've ever seen(4.4!). He also is slow with a poor mental game, and really has nothing else much to recommend him yet, having put all of his eggs in that one basket. It does make him a frustrating opponent because of how hard it is to break him. I forsee many tiebreak-heavy matches in Hugo's future.

54. Stanley Edleman(100%, 7.79, +0.39)

Edleman has been slightly surpassed in the rankings for the moment by juniormate Svajnovic(49th). Nearly cut last year's mark of 100th in half, winning a pair of Slam matches along with four Challenger titles and numerous finals. This year he should continue moving upwards, probably cracking the Top 32.

64. Sushant Chiba(99%, 7.69, +0.53)

Edleman's been good; Chiba's improvement has been better, and he should at least pull even with the US prodigy this year. Both figure to be among the top Challenger-level players and, along with Svajnovic, Prachuab(in the low 80s), and a few others, pushing to break into the big-time. Chiba had six Challenger titles this year, none of them larger than tier-2. One final, two semis, four QFs, and one exit earlier as well. He'll be looking to be more consistent -- most of the early losses were as he was breaking in first half of the year -- and push into the bigger tournaments. He's got a little over half the necessary points to escape Challenger level, and exceeded expectations(Top 100 is all I was looking for). I figure he's close to breaking out but not quite at the end of the year, somewhere around 40th.

thehitcat

02-09-2018, 03:25 PM

Hamal is my oldest player and my first to crack the top 20 (and hopefully top 10.) My young'uns (Hart and Hughes of Ireland) are still only 19 so I'm still in the building phases. Thrilled that you are keeping this going and that I can be a small part of it.

Brian Swartz

02-13-2018, 07:06 AM

Thanks for your generous comments. I'm going to try to keep updating this on a quarterly basis, even though I don't have time to do the monthly ones anymore. I should have time to get things caught up this weekend, though perhaps not before that.

thehitcat

02-22-2018, 07:08 AM

And now to add to my thrills. My youngest current player 19 year old John Hart, is playing doubles with the man that drew me in 41 year old Anil Mehul in about an hour in a Futures match. Sadly I can't pull the screenshot in but it's a very cool moment for me. :) Thanks again Brian.

And now after advancing to the SF together in doubles we are playing against one another in singles in the QF. True changing of the guard? Or wise old hand keeping on course? We shall see...

After the unlikely pair moved through to the doubles final 3 and 2 they met again in the singles QF match that was all about the Sri Lankan and his first serve (81%.) Mehul ran away 2 and 1, converting nearly half of his potential break points and dominating total points 58-36. Maybe next time for the young Irishman.

Brian Swartz

02-22-2018, 09:43 PM

Made the finals in doubles! That's not half bad.

Brian Swartz

03-01-2018, 09:55 PM

I'm now a full year behind in reporting. What a slacker. Let's see what I can get caught back up on.

Q1 Rankings

This is how things are(were) just after Indian Wells and Miami.

1. Mateo Kaspar(28, FRA) -- 18,210

Still good enough to win everything on hardcourts, at least so far.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(26, SRI) -- 10,810

Runner-up in all the big events; 29-3 with all losses coming against the King. Just keep that going. Keep giving yourself every opportunity ... and now we're headed back into the time of year when he'll arguably have the upper hand.

3. Guus Dircx(27, NLD) -- 8,030

Clear #3 right now.

4. Hsuang-tsung Teng(27, NZL) -- 6,450

Takes advantadge of Zarco's absence in Indian Wells.

5. Martin Zarco(28, ESP) -- 6,400

A brief hiatus cost him a Top-4 placing.

6. Dick Blake(24, USA) -- 3,870

Best ranking for an American player in a while, but it's a mountain to climb for him to press further.

7. Ruben Piazzola(26, CHL) -- 3,790

Still solid.

8. Prakash Mooljee(32, SRI) -- 3,760

Someone forgot to tell him he's done.

9. Gilberto Chinaglia(24, ITA) -- 3,605

10. Gillo Fangio(29, ITA) -- 3,540

Looks like the bottom is finally falling out for this old war-horse.

12. Karl Kaspar

Gradually gaining ground.

15. Alexey Nikitin

Hasn't been heard from now in almost six months. Sad.

16. Cristian Castegali

17. Hamal Sbai

Sbai continues to make steady progress.

20. Stuart Pargeter

25. Rob Lock

30. Veini Aikio

Finland has a new hope.

31. Hugo Cordova

No huge changes in the up-and-comers.

44. Stanley Edleman

Was as high as 40th.

47. Uglesa Svajnovic

Holding steady.

58. Sushant Chiba

One spot below his peak. It's been a pretty good start for him but not perfect. He's got very few points to defend for the next three months; just 46 of them spread over three events. The chance is there to move up into the Top 50 by mid-season if he does well.

72. Shyam Senepathy

Holding on for now.

75. Chalerm Prachuab

The other elite juniors player from Edleman's class is not faring as well as the first three.

1202(J). Amrik Kasaravalli

At 1-5 in both singles and doubles, he hasn't found his footing just yet.

Brian Swartz

03-29-2018, 06:51 PM

These are for after Wimbledon. Because I'm lazy, I neglected at the time to do the Race stuff. We all know who's on top anyway.

Top Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(FRA, 28) -- 17,830

Kaspar has now tied the once-untouchable singles Slam record, and it appears he has every intention of smashing it to bits. So far this has been a bounce-back season, with only a lone loss(Zarco in the Madrid QF).

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(SRI, 27) -- 11,070

Won Madrid and made the final everywhere else, but even on clay could not fell the King. Staying right where he is as the clear, highly distant #2.

3. Guus Dircx(NLD, 27) -- 7,690

Also pretty-much locked in place.

4. Hsuang-tsung Teng(NZL, 27) -- 6,210

The clear pecking order continues.

5. Dick Blake(USA, 25) -- 4,280

Blake continues to lead the next generation, but they aren't ready yet.

6. Gregory Mackenzie(USA, 26) -- 4,255

America's young studs are starting to assert themselves as they approach their prime.

7. Matthew Panter(USA, 26) -- 4,090

8. Martin Zarco(ESP, 28) -- 3,910

Falling fast, like many of the old guard.

9. Gilberto Chinaglia(ITA, 24) -- 3,800

Just treading water.

10. Cristian Castegali(MEX, 25) -- 3,535

11. Karl Kaspar(FRA, 22) -- 3,375

The younger Kaspar is coming, make no mistake about it.

12. Ruben Piazzola(CHI, 26)

Pretty sharp fall, and an early one for him.

13. Prakash Mooljee(SRI, 33)

Free-falling now.

15. Stuart Pargeter(USA, 24)

Only fourth in his own country, but Pargeter figures to pick up some more positions soon with all of the declining vets.

17. Hamal Sbai(MOR, 24)

20. Serge Cardone(FRA, 25)

Cardone was 33rd at the start of the year; he's really charging.

22. Veini Aikio(FIN, 23)

Him too.

28. Hugo Cordova(USA, 23)

Up-and-down, and still underachieving but has time.

32. Lucas Kaspar(FRA, 22)

Third of the clan joins the inner circle. I'd like them to go away, but that's not happening.

38. Stanley Edleman(USA, 21)

Close to his next goal; made the third round at Wimbledon. He appears to have left the challenger ranks a bit early; it's been a few months since he played any.

44. Sushant Chiba(SRI, 21)

Not far off Edleman's heels now, but losses in the final of Braunschweig(second year in a row) and Kosice(tier-2 CH) show that Sushant is close ... but not there yet. This is as expected. Improving his skills, not rankings, is most important for the rest of the year. He's about where he should be, and will probably make the jump next season unless he does great in the end-of-year push.

222. Anil Mehul(SRI, 41)

The challenger days are over now, and he hasn't played doubles in a while. Last two futures events he went out in the semis and quarterfinals, and I figure him to stay at the futures level the rest of the way now.

970(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(SRI, 15)

He's about on track for his young age, but has won only a single main-draw match. Not quite up to the tier-5 juniors level of competition even, but he should be soon. The usual even skill/service training split is ongoing, and mostly finished.

Brian Swartz

04-02-2018, 02:05 PM

Top Rankings
After USO

1. Mateo Kaspar(FRA, 28) -- 17,980

USO run while exhausted, losing a set in SF and F only, was a fitting capper. Broke the all-time Slams record, and there's really no debate now; he's the greatest of all time.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(SRI, 27) -- 11,580

Regular trips to the finals pretty much everywhere continue.

3. Guus Dircx(NLD, 27) -- 7,615

Holding steady in third.

4. Hsuang-tsung Teng(NZL, 27) -- 6,330

5. Gregory Mackenzie(USA, 26) -- 4,525

6. Dick Blake(USA, 25) -- 4,180

This solid American pair is still miles behind the top 4.

7. Matthew Panter(USA, 26) -- 4,030

Err, make it a trio then.

8. Cristian Castegali(MEX, 25) -- 3,800

9. Karl Kaspar(FRA, 22) -- 3,780

The big story is here. The junior Kaspar is three years younger than anyone else in the Top 10. Right now betting on anyone else to be the next #1 is foolishness.

10. Gilberto Chinaglia(ITA, 25) -- 3,590

11. Stuart Pargeter(USA, 25)

Just 4th in his own nation, Pargeter is inching close to the first page but needs at least one more big event to get there.

12. Martin Zarco(ESP, 28)

The latest former standout(was a clear no. 2 at one point) to crash and burn.

13. Prakash Mooljee(SRI, 33)

14. Hamal Sbai(MOR, 24)

Sbai continues to climb gradually.

20. Serge Cardone(FRA, 25)

22. Veini Aikio(FIN, 23)

23. Hugo Cordova(USA, 23)

25. Henri Sorel(CAN, 23)

27. Chad Duncan(GBR, 23)

A couple of new faces here in Sorel and Duncan.

31. Lucas Kaspar(FRA, 23)

Even the Kaspar cast-offs are getting in the act now.

32. Tristan Allende(USA, 23)

34. Stanley Edleman(USA, 21)

He's close, and the top-ranked player his age. During a dip in his rankings Chiba passed him briefly, but a run to the 4th round of the USO took care of that. He'll look to crack the Top 32 in the year-end push no doubt.

46. Sushant Chiba(SRI, 21)

High so far has been 42nd. Since Braunschweig he's won the last three Challengers he's entered. I still think the prediction at he start of year will hold; I figure him to push into the Top 40 but not quite make it out of Challengers. Doing well, just not quite ready for the jump. Soon though. Soon.

255. Anil Mehul(SRI, 41)

Showing no signs of leaving the futures level and now his doubles ranking is low enough for him to enter both sides of the draw. The grind continues.

651(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(SRI, 25)

Amrik has been making further inroads, with two finals and a SF showing in his last three JG5 events. Skill/service are up to 0.8 in training, and before year's end I think he'll hit the 1.0 line at which time we'll switch to the standard approach and start boosting skill more.

Brian Swartz

04-05-2018, 06:57 PM

YEAR-END WTC

1. Sri Lanka -- 2710
2. France -- 2497
3. Spain -- 2329
4. United States -- 2210
5. Argentina -- 2200
6. Germany -- 2006
7. Russia -- 2005
8. Croatia -- 1988
9. Morocco -- 1917
10. Chile -- 1896

Our lead was cut in half by a SF loss, so we'll be in real danger of losing the top spot in a couple years if we don't improve on that. It will happen eventually, but Chiba is definitely urgently needed to make the national team stronger.

Top Player Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(29, FRA) -- 17,830

As dominant as ever, he equalled his record of 95-1 from two years previous. There is no longer any debate; Kaspar is the GOAT.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(27, SRI) -- 11,160

The top opposition, he had an almost identical record to the year before(same losses, one extra win to 79). Now a bit over the hill, he isn't going to get any closer to Kaspar than he is ... and clearly that isn't close enough to slow down the King.

3. Guus Dircx(27, NLD) -- 7,380

Dircx is also holding steady.

4. Hsuang-tsung Teng(28, NZL) -- 5,810

This Top 4 has been intact for years now. Eventually something's got to give.

5. Gregory Mackenzie(26, USA) -- 4,995

6. Dick Blake(25, USA) -- 4,820

7. Stuart Pargeter(25, USA) -- 4,460

A trio of talented Americans waits for an opportunity.

8. Cristian Castegali(25, MEX) -- 4,380

9. Matthew Panter(27, USA) -- 3,980

10. Karl Kaspar(23, FRA) -- 3,710

And here's the heir apparent. His ascension brought France the WTC crown, and is going to make them awfully tough to top for the time being,.

11. Gilberto Chinaglia(25, ITA) -- 3,410

The only guy really close to getting back into things.

13. Hamal Sbai(24, MOR)

Sbai is a thousand points shy of Chinaglia. Close in the rankings, but he's got a lot of work to do to move up further.

14. Prakash Mooljee(33, SRI)

Seems to have found a secure landing spot.

17. Serge Cardone(25, FRA)

No Kaspar, but Cardone is another example of French resurgence.

19. Ruben Piazzola(29, CHI)

Really fell off before his time.

21. Damian Cortecedo(26, CHI)

Was in the high 30s a year ago, and now figures to pass Piazzola for the top spot in his nation soon.

22. Chad Duncan(23, UK)

A steady season for this newcomer included three second-half forays into the business end of 500-level events. Still a work in progress.

24. Hugo Cordova(23, USA)

Gradual progress continues for another young American.

25. Veini Aikio(23, FIN)

The new young guns are starting to make a push as you can see by the number of them here.

26. Lucas Kaspar(23, FRA)

Too many Kaspars.

28. Stanley Edleman(21, USA)

Still the top-ranking player his age. And only like 6th or 7th among the US guys.

29. Henri Sorel(23, CAN)

30. Tristan Allende(23, USA)

As you can see, there are really a ton of 23-or-under players here. Could be a new great generation on the rise.

39. Ugljesa Svajnovic(21, CRO)

The third wheel.

41. Sushant Chiba(21, SRI)

I said his goal was 40th this year, and he hit 38th before settling here. Pretty darn close.

233. Anil Mehul(41, SRI)

Holding steady in the 'good futures players' category, though his doubles(702nd) mark has fallen more rapidly. That's temporary though.

333(J). Amrik Kasaravilli(15, SRI)

Inferior endurance has him still unable to handle a full JG5 tournament effectively. Even in his first year, it's already noticeably slowing his progression.

Brian Swartz

04-06-2018, 06:17 PM

2058 Preview

1. Mateo Kaspar(86%, 8.94, -0.03)

Slowly returning to the mortal realm. His on-court results dispute that conclusion.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(89%, 8.83, +0.02)

This equals the best mark of Dudwadkar's career, two years ago. He's at the tail-end of his prime, and it's rather quite astonishing that he still couldn't dent Kaspar at all.

3. Guus Dircx(86%, 8.62, -0.05)

4. Hsuang-tsung Teng(87%, 8.45, -0.08)

Looks like the allure of doubles is starting to draw Teng. All of the top players with the exception of Dudwadkar are unambigiously past their best tennis, and yet they remain clearly the Top 4. That's a testament to just how good they have been. I'm not even certain this is the year that situation changes.

5. Gregory Mackenzie(91%, 8.44, +0.08)

A solid year of improving after a disappointing one the year before, and on the court Mackenzie moved through traffic 10 spots from 15th. He's got a chance to surpass Teng but I think the odds aren't great. Maybe 1 in 3.

6. Dick Blake(91%, 8.34, -0.03)

More classically trained, in contrast to Mackenzie's focus on the serve, Blake lacks power compared to most top players. He's significantly up from 11th a year ago, but it's a real question whether or not his ascent ends at this point.

7. Stuart Pargeter(94%, 8.31, +0.14)

A nice year off the court obviously, and Pargeter holds a significant edge over his slightly-more-accomplished compatriots; he's got at least a year in development time on them, while Blake & Mackenzie are in their prime right now. That's also another year waiting for the Top 4 to further decline. Pargeter seems certain to ascend at least one more level into that elite quartet himself. Another calendar of preparation first though, most likely. After starting the yeaer 24th, he's feeling quite good about himself.

8. Cristian Castegali(92%, 8.31, +0.01)

Two years ago Castegali wasn't even on the radar. Last year he was 17th, this year he made the Tour Finals. I think that train ends here, but it is interesting to see the first four guys remain intact while the second four are completely replaced. I'm quite sure that's a quirk I've not seen before. In general this group should all be improving, so they ought to remain relatively stable and put increasing pressure on the top guys. How much pressure exactly is hard to say. Only Teng really looks vulnerable at this point.

9. Matthew Panter(87%, 8.30, -0.03)

Panter is another declining player, yet he pushed his way to new heights(7th at one point, 12th a year ago). The improvements of the players just above him seems to have passed him by though -- it was a short-lived moment in the sun.

10. Karl Kaspar(97%, 8.39, +0.23)

Only a three-spot jump in the rankings, but what Kaspar Jr. here did off the court is a lot more important and impressive. His merely-average mental abilities will hold him back some, but he's already no worse than third in the world when it comes to technical skills. Karl seems a shoo-in for this year's WTF, and the question about him taking over for Mateo at #1 someday is looking a lot more like a 'when' than an 'if'.

11. Gilberto Chinaglia(93%, 8.25, +0.11)

Rare to see a guy drop two spots and out of the Top 10 with this kind of improvement, but objectively it was a regression to where he belongs. Chinaglia is the only player currently in striking range of getting back on the first page soon, and he's far from done. Panter is an obvious target for him, and I expect him to be a fixture in the 8-10 range for a couple years at least.

13. Hamal Sbai(95%, 8.61, +0.17)

Sbai continues to progress much better in his abilities than he does on the court; up some from 20th but he should be ranked higher. A weak serve is at least part of the reason, but he counters that with the fact that only Dudwadkar is better from the back of the court. Among higher-ranking players, only the younger Kaspar is younger. On paper he's the world's 4th-best, and nearly third with Dircx just a hair ahead. It's time for the best Moroccan ever in the global tennis competition to start playing like it.

15. Prakash Mooljee

16. Martin Zarco

Didn't bother evaluating their current abilities, but it's worth noting these two veterans as they fade from the game.

17. Serge Cardone(93%, 7.99, ??)

It seems almost a sacrilege to speak of French players without the last name of Kaspar. But here's one worth noting. And I do really like the name 'Serge'. He's also the best player who was still in Challenger ranks a year ago, so this is a true introduction. As his score here suggests, there's nothing particularly special about him. Solid from the back but not at the elite level, good mental game, limited athleticism and subpar serve by these standards. Definitely looks to be over-ranked. But he has a cool name, so there's always that.

19. Ruben Piazzola

Falling like a rock. Only 26 but already past his prime -- the meteoric career path being demonstrated here(take note, Edleman! :)).

21. Chad Duncan(96%, 7.88, ??)

Another newcomer, and this one from the British Isles. Another one not really worth noting, at least not yet. Younger than Cardone, he's got a quality serve but too much time spent on doubles and not enough on his all-court game. Pretty slow and not known for his mental prowess either. So at the top levels, he's got a powerful, accurate serve. And that's all. Not enough. He does start a veritable wave of the new generation though.

23. Damian Cortecedo(91%, 7.93, ??)

First, and possibly last, go-round for Cortecedo on the rundown here. Too much doubles, not enough athleticism, and he's already near his peak. Really the walking, breathing dictionary definition of a journeyman.

24. Hugo Cordova(95%, 8.03, +0.17)

A nice season of improvement, and up a few spots from 30th. Cordova continues to be a fascinating experiement; he has one of if not the best serves ever seen, at a very high price to the rest of his game.

25. Veini Aikio(96%, 8.03, ??)

Aikio matches up well with Cordova. He's also serve-heavy, though not to as much of an extreme. They are nearly copies of each other.

27. Lucas Kaspar(97%, 7.76, ??)

Abandoned after creation, this cast-off Kaspar is still good enough to now force his way up. He'll only go as far as his technique and talent can take him, lacking the athletic ability to be a transcendent player.

28. Stanley Edleman(98%, 7.95, +0.16)

For one week a few months back, Edleman was actually surpassed by Chiba in the rankings. That gap has now widened, but it's a temporary thing. That's particularly true with Edleman now past his physical peak. He's still got much he can do on the pro tour though, as he's reached the elite tier faster than any of his generational rivals and is the top-ranking player of his age.

29. Henri Sorel(95%, 7.70, ??)

A poor man's Cordova. Looks like the tour is going back serve-bot philosophy, at least in part. It's not a good look.

30. Tristan Allende(95%, 8.34, ??)

Allende is a horse of a different color. Technically pretty well-balanced, quite fast with decent strength and mental ability, he's got Top 10 player written all over him unlike most of the other youngsters. I expect Allende to rise above, as he's borderline-Top 10 material right now. A big year for him I would think is upcoming, and he'll be a significant foil for Chiba for at least a while.

41. Sushant Chiba(99%, 7.98, +0.29)

This comports with his positioning as one of the top handful of Challenger players in the world. He's also surpassed Edleman is theoretical ability by a hair. Call it even for now. It's time to graduate yet another Sri Lankan to the elite class. There will be two chances to do so early, with a big challenger and the Australian Open first up on the docket. Right now Chiba has just over 84% of the required points(short just over 200) to make the Top 32. The 17 players closest ahead of him are all either 29 and above, or 24 and below. 7 are in the older category, but he still needs pass other improving players to reach his next goal, which largely explains why he hasn't done so yet. Of course there is also the fact that he's too slow to deal with top serves effectively, and so he must compensate in other ways.

As can be seen, Chiba and Edleman have the abilities right now to be in the 15-20 range. They just have to work their way up through the pack.

233. Anil Mehul(58%, 6.59)

Seems I neglected to calculate him last year.

333(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(69%, 3.06)

Just starting to increase skill to the normal ratio, as the initial serve investment is now complete.

Brian Swartz

04-09-2018, 12:59 PM

Player Rankings, Q1

1. Mateo Kaspar(29, FRA) -- 17,430

Kaspar just doesn't lose on hardcourt, but it finally happened. First time in almost five years! And the first real evidence that maybe he's returning to mortality. At least partially.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(27, SRI) -- 10,750

Points-wise, the early loss in Indian Wells(Pargeter in the 4th round) and then the history-making win over Kaspar in Miami are a wash -- but I'll take that tradeoff anytime.

3. Guus Dircx(28, NLD) -- 7,995

He's had some real close ones with Dudwadkar the last couple of years, and is a fixture in the SF at any big tournament.

4. Gregory Mackenzie(27, USA) -- 5,340

The eldest of the next-gen Americans, Mackenzie is the first to crack into the Top 4. QF showings in all the big events so he's really just been consistent enough to take advantage of the opportunity.

5. Hsuang-tsung Teng(28, NZL) -- 4,765

A good ride is finally ending. Spent years at #4 but never rose higher than that. Teng was good, but he played in a tough era, an era when good wasn't good enough.

6. Dick Blake(25, USA) -- 4,590

7. Karl Kaspar(23, FRA) -- 4,540

Still coming ...

8. Stuart Pargeter(25, USA) -- 4,410

9. Cristian Castegali(25, MEX) -- 4,335

There's not a lot to say about these guys individually. Instead, look at the fact that 5-9 are separated by only 430 points in the standings. The collective competitiveness is what to see here. Those below them have a hard time in breaking into this group.

10. Matthew Panter(27, USA) -- 3,740

11. Gilberto Chinaglia(25, ITA) -- 3,480

Chinaglia is still reasonably close.

13. Hamal Sbai(25, MOR)

Quality, but hasn't made his move yet.

14. Tristan Allende(24, USA)

As predicted at the start of the year, Allende is on the move. In the three months so far he's halved his ranking(30th), making the quarters at the AO before semifinal showings in both American masters. Clay won't be very kind to him I don't think but I figure he'll finish the year strong as well, and he's already made quite the impression.

15. Serge Cardone(25, FRA)

Up a couple spots.

18. Prakash Mooljee(33, SRI)

Slipping a bit further, but helped Sri Lanka narrowly escape in group play to advance in the WTC. Tied with Italy and Spain at 2 wins apiece, we still win the group based on tiebreakers. Lost to Italy, who lost to Spain, who lost to us -- and the Italians are the unlucky ones out. Don't even advance after having defeated the group champion ... those 3-way ties always have someone feeling yucky.

19. Hugo Cordova(24, USA)

Moving up well, was 24th.

20. Veini Aikio(23, FIN)

Also +5. Another youngster starting to rise.

21. Chad Duncan(23, GBR)

28. Kenneth Brasher(23, GBR)

Just 23, Brasher is +9 this year so far. He looks to be one of the newcomers in next season's rundown. A good young pair for the Brits ...

29. Stanley Edleman(22, USA)

Treading water just above the Challenger ranks. It's tougher up here.

31. Henri Sorel(24, CAN)

Down a couple spots and just hanging on.

32. Lucas Kaspar(23, FRA)

Down from 26th, but this whole group of players is churning and constantly shifting.

37. Sushant Chiba(21, SRI)

About to turn 22. Did well enough in the challengers and got a first-round win at the AO to be seeded in the IW/Miami Masters for the first time. In both cases he won a match, lost to a higher-ranking player, and then lost points compared to the challenger victories he was competing against from last year. High rank was 32nd. Looks like he's going to bounce up and down a bit, hanging in the low-mid 30s until he sticks in the elite circle.

Should be seeded at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and RG in particularly should be an opportunity. Almost all the results in his points right now are challenger wins, or finals in a few cases. Tough to replace that point level outside of the Slams, until he sticks in the Top32 for a bit and can start playing some 250s and whatnot. Then maybe he can push up a little.

38. Uglesa Svajnovic(21, CRO)

The third wheel in this Edleman-Chiba tale is hanging right around as well ... and Prachuab is on the rise also, just three spots back. They are coming.

95. Jorgen Henrikkson(19, SWE)

Top 100 before your 20th birthday. We don't see that often Jorgen. Profiles as a meteoric, fast-burning talent, solid athleticism, pretty good mental game, weak from the back as he's focused a bit much on the serve. Only decent endurance and no trainer, so probably not an overwhelming future.

291. Anil Mehul(42, SRI)

Mehul plays doubles and singles futures and doesn't have the endurance to get through the draw in both, so he's plummeting. Of course the point is to get as many matches as he can, so that's fine. 508th and rising in doubles, and I think he'll have more longevity in that discipline as expected. Less than three years now. Tick tock.

256(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(15, SRI)

Took a couple months longer than most due to endurance issues but he's on now to the JG4 level. Lost his first event at that level in the first round both singles and doubles ... but won the singles title the second time around. Kasaravalli looks to be tracking like most players have, just a little behind, all of which is fitting with his abilities.

Brian Swartz

04-11-2018, 02:50 PM

Q2 Top Player Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(29, FRA) -- 15,610

Kaspar has come up short in the last two Slams, losing to different players at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. It's clear now his reign of terror is beginning to fade. He's got five losses on the year already, more than he lost in the previous three combined, and it's only halfway over.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(28, SRI) -- 12,470

A first-ever Wimbledon title, in which he came back from two sets down to stun King Kaspar, is definitely going to be a highlight of this season. RG was a surprise in the other direction, as he played Chinaglia as tough as anyone before losing a four-set battle in the SFs. Overall though, Dudwadkar has actually probably been the year's top player at 54-4 overall. If he can continue to be a threat to Kaspar even on hardcourts and get another win or two, it's possible that gap might continue to close, even as both players are declining.

3. Guus Dircx(28, NLD) -- 7,090

The personification of consistency, and sort of the forgotten man in this Era of Kaspar. He's won only a single Masters, but has 66 or more wins six straight years and probably a seventh here.

4. Gilberto Chinaglia(25, ITA) -- 5,345

Just a hair above the pack for the coveted 4th spot, Chinaglia is the flavor of the month after battling past Pargeter and Dudwadkar, then easing through Kaspar in the final to win at Roland Garros. He's a clay specialist and with that has earned his moment in the sun. Should be a force on that surface for at least a couple more years.

5. Karl Kaspar(23, FRA) -- 5,190

Kaspar's quality results continue as he claws his way upwards. Semifinalist at RG, QFs at Wimbledon. I expect Karl to be 4th by the end of the year, and then we'll see if he can make any inroads against the other top players. Just a matter of time before he takes Mateo's throne I think.

6. Gregory Mackenzie(26, USA) -- 5,040

A SF appearance at Wimbledon is his highlight on the year. Mackenzie has been anywhere from 4th to 8th in this volatile grouping.

7. Dick Blake(27, USA) -- 4,920

8. Hsuang-tsung Teng(28, NZL) -- 4,525

A hard fall after being a solid #4 for years.

9. Stuart Pargeter(25, USA) -- 4,450

I'm surprised at Pargeter being down here, but he's got exacdtly 10 fewer points than he did at the start of the season ... when he was 7th. Once again it's just brutal competition.

10. Cristian Castegali(26, MEX) -- 4,020

Castegali has a lead of exactly a thousand points over the next-closest player. In other words, this Top 10 is here to stay for a while.

12. Matthew Panter(27, USA)

Looks like his days of being an important factor are done.

13. Tristan Allende(24, USA)

Pretty much just held his spot, +1 from the last rankings. Allende figures to make a strong push upwards to close the year though on the US hardcourts.

14. Kenneth Brasher(23, GBR)

Somebody tell him he's not really this good.

15. Hamal Sbai(25, MOR)

Still waiting for ... something? I'm not sure what. Thought he'd be up a bit more by now.

16. Hugo Cordova(24, USA)

17. Serge Cardone](26, FRA)

18. Veini Aikio(24, FIN)

Don't miss the forest for the trees. 6 straight in a row here on page 2, just jockeying for position much like the 4th-9th ranked guys are.

19. Prakash Mooljee(34, SRI)

Several years older than all but Besson, who is falling much more quickly. Gotta hand it to the 'geezer' here, and his new management.

21. Chad Duncan(23, GBR)

Making the Brits happy.

23. Adam Hagans(23, GBR)

Ok, really happy.

24. Lucas Kaspar(23, FRA)

Of course.

26. Esteban Cortina(26, ESP)

Such as he is, the new hope of Spain.

27. Stanley Edleman(22, USA)

+2 from the last set. Again for the Americans, it's the upcoming set where they'll make or break their seasons.

28. Henri Sorel(24, CAN)

31. Ugljesa Svajnovic(22, CRO)

Oh, hello there. The 'third wheel' from Chiba's class doesn't want to be left behind in the Challengers.

32. Sushant Chiba(22, SRI)

Just barely has his foot in the door after making the third round(expected) at both RG and Wimbledon. At the first he lost to Dudwadkar in straight sets -- a tough matchup. On the grass it was almost as tough, drawing 6th-seeded Blake and a four-set loss included ending up on the wrong side of two tiebreakers. So he's knocking on the door of being able to shoot up the rankings I feel -- but not quite there yet.

331. Anil Mehul(42, SRI)

Dang he's an old fart. Been running him for nearly three decades now. Doubles is at 347th, so it's basically equalized now for him. Endurance is no better than a decent first-year junior. He's just ... well, he's old. But still getting out there in the futures circuit.

179(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(16, SRI)

After the first-round exit in his first attempt, Kasaravalli has won three straight tier-4 juniors events. Won't be long before he starts eyeing the next level. Skill has been trained up enough to get him close to the desired ratio. The 'growing pains' stage appears to be behind him.

britrock88

04-12-2018, 10:28 AM

You're right that the 5-10 range is close quarters. Any advice on maximizing Pargeter's chances would be appreciated!

Brian Swartz

04-13-2018, 07:57 AM

Two things really:

** Don't start the year off in a slump. Third-round loss to Allende at the AO really hurt.

Of course there's not much you can do about that, which means it's more about:

** Don't be unlucky :P. Pargeter has just had a rough year. QF loss to Chinaglia at RG was as good as anyone played him, and then the 5th-set TB defeat against Dudwadkar at the USO, also in the quarters. Shanghai/Canada/Miami early losses ... just had some bad matches in unforunate spots and then narrow misses at opportunities to break through and gain back some of the lost ground.

Even with all that still a year away from hitting your best play, but yeah it's just been a hard-luck season. I don't see anything wrong with scheduling and my calculations show your rating at 8.37(+0.06 so far over the start of the year) so you are still training and improving. Stay the course and things will eventually starting swinging your way again. As said, it's a packed field and unfortunately you were one of those who got pushed out. I have been surprised that you weren't able to stick in the Top 8 but I don't think it's anything more than bad luck.

Brian Swartz

04-13-2018, 05:15 PM

This brings us almost up to current time. Right now we are in the Paris Masters, or just over halfway between this set of rankings(post-USO) and the end of the year.

Top Player Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(FRA, 29) -- 14,710

After losing in the Canada final, Kaspar took Cincinatti off which was enough to freshen him up for a run through the USO in which he didn't lose a set. It was risky though -- if he'd lost there again he would have lost the #1 ranking. That lead ain't what it used to be. Another record he set recently is becoming the first player to win two singles Olympic gold.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(SRI, 27) -- 13,720

Despite the fatigue, Dudwadkar made the Olympic final and the same at the USO, where Pargeter and Teng both had a shot and both took him to five sets before losing. In between he got another victory over Kaspar to win in Canada, then took Cincinatti as top seed to close the gap. It's very possible, even likely now, that he'll actually ascend to #1 for at least a week -- if everything stays the same it'll happen right before the WTF when last year's points for it drop off. I never thought that would happen and it's not a sure thing, but Ritwik's done very well in taking advantage of a down year for the King.

3. Guus Dircx(NLD, 28) -- 6,480

Slowly starting to fade now.

4. Karl Kaspar(FRA, 23) -- 6,150

Another SF showing at the USO has Kaspar thinking year-end #3, and he's opened up a gap to solidify his placing.

5. Dick Blake(USA, 26) -- 5,330

6. Gilberto Chinaglia(ITA, 26) -- 5,315

Fallen off a bit after the RG triumph, but mostly others have just improved making it look worse than it is.

7. Gregory Mackenzie(27, USA) -- 4,920

8. Hsuang-tsung Teng(28, NZL) -- 4,775

Still a tightly-packed group here, with Teng 555 points short of 5th place.

9. Stuart Pargeter(26, USA) -- 4,360

Up and down, a disappointing year so far to an extent.

10. Cristian Castegali(26, MEX) -- 3,765

11. Tristan Allende(24, USA)

Still charging, and less than 400 points now from the Top 10. Allende could well make it by the end of the year.

14. Kenneth Brasher(23, GBR)

15. Serge Cardone(26, FRA)

16. Prakash Mooljee(34, SRI)

Made the fourth round at the USO, which he skipped last year. Mooljee refuses to totally go away.

17. Hugo Cordova(24, USA)

18. Veini Aikio(24, FIN)

19. Hamal Sbai(25, MOR)

Should still be improving, but was several spots higher. Has Sbai already seen his best days??

20. Adam Hagans(23, GBR)

21. Chad Duncan(24, GBR)

The youngsters continue to amass. Of the 11 players ranked 11-21st, 8 are still on the rise. Six, more than half, are yet to reach their 25th birthday. We'll find out over the next couple of years which of them are for real.

24. Lucas Kaspar(24, FRA)

26. Stanley Edleman(22, USA)

Two big challengers come off his points totals in the next month, but he's almost totally transitioned over. Hasn't broken through at anything bigger than a 250 -- he won Winston-Salem just before the USO. But no QF or better in any larger events.

27. Esteban Cortina(25, ESP)

30. Sushant Chiba(22, SRI)

The draws at the Slams haven't been great -- Pargeter at the USO, and also Edleman at the Winston-Salem semis, both brushed him aside easily. Third round at RG, Wimbledon, and USO. Right where he was supposed to get to, and no further. Getting through the horde of Americans with the favorable crowds they often have won't be easy. Neither will compensating for his cement feet. Partway through transitioning from challengers to the elite ranks and no breakthrough performances here yet either.

32. Leo Kaspar(23, FRA)

Gimme a break. There's no end to these guys.

38. Ugljesa Svajnovic(22, CRO)

The third wheel takes a step back, at least for the moment.

48. Mike Rhodes(20, PHI)

Top-50 at age 20. He's got a fine manager who is reloading with some new players(alablues, ranked 14th). Great power, clay specialist, mental game is poor and decent endurance. Serve is good for his age, but baseline play not so much. I'm sure we'll hear more from him in the future.

91. Jorge Henrikkson(19, SWE)

Latest in the Top-100 teenagers category. Looks like a versatile all-around player with a strong mentality. Too early to tell much more.

367. Anil Mehul(42, SRI)

307th doubles. Still slipping and plugging away.

154(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(16, SRI)

Fatigue is still an issue at the business end of full-length tournaments. Amrik is just about ready to boost up to JG3s, and has fully entered the standard training approach now.

Brian Swartz

04-13-2018, 05:16 PM

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-USO Edition

In

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 12,610
Mateo Kaspar -- 11,460
Gilberto Chinaglia -- 5135*

Do not adjust your browsers. Dudwadkar is actually poised to perhaps steal away the #1 ranking before the younger Karl can come grasp it. That would be a heck of a thing, even if fleeting. It's a big gap to the rest of the players after these two. A REALLY big gap. Chinaglia hasn't done diddly-squat off of clay ... but if you win a Slam, you don't need to.

Probable

Karl Kaspar -- 5550
Guus Dircx -- 4940
Dick Blake -- 4570
Hsuang-tsung Teng -- 4265
Gregory Mackenzie -- 4105

Karl Kaspar is 23 years old and #3 in the Race. Just ponder that for a moment. And then tremble in fear. Dircx is also basically a sure thing, Blake with a bit of work to do but I expect him to make it. Teng on the other hand is just barely off the bubble and declining.

Contenders

Long Shots

Stuart Pargeter -- 3380
Tristan Allende -- 3360

Surprised to see Pargeter this low, but he has a couple of good 500 results that will be going away soon. It's just been inconsistent for him -- knocked out early in two Slams and two Masters, and a lot of close QF exits. It's just him and the fast-rising Allende though with any real chance of crashing the party. The invitees look to be pretty well-established.

Brian Swartz

04-15-2018, 02:22 PM

The game hasn't reached the end of the year yet, but this was worth reporting in a rare screenshot post. First, the World Tour Finals qualifiers:

https://i.imgur.com/6PhKaIt.png

I'm dubbing the younger Kaspar Prince Karl, since Mateo is the King it seemed fitting. And he's looking to lock down the #3 spot ... but the big news here is that Ritwik Dudwadkar has ascended to the #1 against all odds. He lost some ground in the WTC, as France moved on to the final but he only managed a split in a 4-1 defeat against the United States in the semis. Blake beat him in a five-set epic. But then came the Paris Masters, where Ritwik had made three straight QF exits, then a SF last year. This time he made the final and nearly won, a 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 loss to guess who in which he fell just short despite being slightly the better player. One would presume Kaspar will retake the top spot after the Finals, but that is suddenly an open question. It's also a very important one in terms of history ...

https://i.imgur.com/k3zRa3e.png

King Kaspar could fail to set the record for longevity in the top spot if he does not rise to the occasion here once again. Even if he does, I'm still pretty ecstatic over Dudwadkar getting to the #1 spot for however brief a time(minimum two weeks). I thought the string of Sri Lankans to hit the pinnacle of tennis was sure to be broken as I've mentioned a number of times, but at least for now it continues, and the expected Kaspar transition is interrupted. Playing spoiler against the best player to ever wield a racket is a cool thing.

britrock88

04-17-2018, 03:55 PM

32. Leo Kaspar(23, FRA)

Gimme a break. There's no end to these guys.

*laughs* *sobs*

Izulde

04-17-2018, 10:51 PM

It's House Kaspar's world, and we're all just living in it.

Brian Swartz

04-19-2018, 06:14 PM

You have spoken well and wisely, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Brian Swartz

04-20-2018, 08:13 PM

In a few hours another year will be in the books. Hopefully tomorrow I'll have time to end-of-year stuff. For now ...

World Tour Finals

It started badly for Dudwadkar when he dropped his first round-robin match to Hsuang-tsung Teng, 6-4, 6-1. Teng hasn't been a real threat for a couple of years, but really shut him down on this day. Dudwadkar rallied to win his next two and move on to the semis, where he met King Kaspar earlier than hoped. In a match that would determine the year-end #1, Dudwadkar played well enough to win but lost thanks to failing on 11 of 12 break-point chances. Kaspar's ability to come through in the clutch makes him a champion again, a title won more between the ears than through physical ability. In the final it was King over Prince in three, an all-Kaspar matchup.

The two leading members of House Kaspar* would go on to lead France to a dominant victory over the United States in the WTC final. It's the second title in a row for the French. Last time someone other than Sri Lanka accompnlished that was 15 years ago, when the Iglar-led Czechs accomplished the feat.

*Patent Pending by Izulde

Final Country Rankings

1. Sri Lanka - 2565
2. France - 2414
3. United States - 2323
4. Spain - 2235
5. Argentina - 2177
6. Russia - 2025
7. Croatia - 1988
8. Chile - 1932
9. Italy - 1842
10. Morocco - 1825

France's back-to-back titles have brought them within striking distance. If they manage a 3-peat, and I wouldn't be against that with two of the top three players, we stand a fair chance of losing the #1 spot. After a 12-year run in which Sri Lanka was the champion at least once in any 2-year period, we have now lost in three of the past four. And with all the Kaspars coming in, things are about to get real, as they say.

Next year we'll face them early. #2 France is in Group 4 along with us, a true travesty. #9 Italy and #38 Finland fill out that draw, so making sure we get past the Italians will be vital. Chiba is fairly close to surpassing Mooljee for the second singles spot ... but isn't there yet. The sooner that happens the better.

Brian Swartz

04-21-2018, 06:31 PM

2058 Top Player Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(30, FRA) -- 14,910

King Kaspar lost six times last year, as many as he'd suffered in the previous four seasons combined. And still finished the year on top, claiming two Slams, three Masters, the Olympics, a second straight WTC, and the World Tour Finals. Now though the watch begins in earnest to see how long he remains there. I think he's likely to stay on top this year, but it's no longer a sure thing.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(28, SRI) -- 13,910

I didn't realize until I looked back, but Dudwadkar actually won six Masters in a row(Miami through Cincinatti). Given that he'd acquired a total of just two Shields prior to this year, that was a heck of a thing. And still it wasn't quite enough. The best chance was probably in the RG semifinals, where he was even with Chinaglia after two tiebreaks and would have had a good chance in the final had he prevailed there. But with margins this small, one can really only celebrate that he did become #1 in the world ... even for just a couple weeks. Nobody else has yet been close to interrupting Kaspar's reign of terror. 88 wins on the year, 9 more than his previous high. That's often enough to be the best.

3. Karl Kaspar(24, FRA) -- 7,000

Prince Karl made the QFs or SFs pretty much everywhere, including a bronze in the Olympics, and then made the WTF final along with helping France defend their WTC title. Now he sets his sights on closing the considerable gap keeping him from being a legitimate challenger for #1.

4. Gilberto Chinaglia(26, ITA) -- 5,675

The Roland Garros champion made it to the quarters or better just twice in the rest of the big events. He'll either need to repeat or improve drastically on those other performances. This year could go either way; his improved seeding could aid him in gaining momentum, or(probably more likely) he could crash like a rock.

5. Dick Blake(26, USA) -- 5,190

6. Guus Dircx(28, NLD) -- 5,010

The long-time #3 made his move into doubles this year. I think it was early, but it's certainly understandable. Dircx will be best known for being a key member of the 'loyal opposition', and also for his lone RG title six years ago. It's time for him to say good-bye now as he falls through the rankings, and probably not particularly slowly.

7. Hsuang-tsung Teng(29, NZL) -- 4,895

Still hanging on as a danger, as he showed Ritwik in the WTF.

8. Gregory Mackenzie(27, USA) -- 3,980

A disappointing year as Blake was essentially left alone as the US standard-bearer.

9. Tristan Allende(24, USA) -- 3,660

Closest thing the crown Prince has to a rival, and Allende will of course have the backing of favorable crowds in multiple venues. It'll be curious to see whether he can do what Blake/Mackenzie/Pargeter have failed to do, and crack the Top 4 this year.

10. Cristian Castegali(26, MEX) -- 3,600

Just hanging out basically, and appears to be just past his best tennis.

11. Stuart Pargeter(26, USA) -- 3,435

Unquestionably the biggest disappointment, though I do think mostly it was likely a hard-luck case. Regardless, if he is to be relevant and fulfill his potential it needs to happen this year. The next two should be his best ... but will they be, or has his psyche been permanently damaged?

13. Kenneth Brasher(25, GBR)

Wasn't even on the radar last year. We'll see if he can back up that impressive rise.

14. Hamal Sbai(25, MOR)

I was close to writing him off, but a late-season bounce gained him several positions. Is Sbai ready to finally make good on his skills, or is this just a blip on the screen of a terminally-ill patient?

15. Veini Aikio(24, FIN)

Mid-20s last year; Finland's latest good-but-not-great player is pushing upwards.

16. Serge Cardone(26, FRA)

Almost exactly where he was last year, and many think he's gone as far as he can go.

17. Hugo Cordova(24, USA)

A second straight year of steady progression, from 30th to 24th and now another half-dozen or so spots. Hugo's still young; can he keep it up?

20. Prakash Mooljee(34, SRI)

Still the #2 in Sri Lanka's national efforts, but that probably will finally end in a few months.

21. Adam Hagans(23, GBR)

Another new Brit.

22. Lucas Kaspar(24, FRA)

Slowly ascending.

23. Chad Duncan(24, GBR)

There were no notable English players last year, and now they are three. Probably got sick of all the fun the Kaspars were having and decided to do something about it.

24. Sushant Chiba(22, SRI)

41st last year, so this is quality if unspectacular progress. Chiba particularly showed signs that he's getting over the hump against moderately higher-ranking players at the year's end with his showing in Paris(d. Chinaglia). He'll make his WTC doubles debut this week, and with any luck it won't be long until he does the same in singles. I would imagine Sushant has now passed his juniors nemesis(all of them) for good.

25. Esteban Cortina(25, ESP)

Spain at least is not completely gone.

27. Leo Kaspar(24, FRA)

Latest to join the throng from House Kaspar.

31. Stanley Edleman(22, USA)

No longer the most-accomplished player his age, Edleman actually drops two spots from a year ago. It's far too early to even consider writing him off though -- treading water isn't that unusual when breaking into the elite class. We haven't heard the last of Stanley.

32. Chalerm Prachuab(22, THA)

Also in that same junior class, he just took a little longer to get going as a pro. Despite his relative youth, Prachuab is already considered the top Thai player ever. His career-high of 30th equals the national record, one that is certain to fall before long.

36. Mike Rhodes(20, PHI)

Normally I stop at 32nd for the most part, but this is pretty unusual; knocking on the door before his 21st birthday. We'll need to take a closer look at this phenom.

Svajnovic and Bochette, other members of the Edleman juniors class, have dropped into the mid-40s. They may well be back, but they are off the radar screen for now.

389. Anil Mehul(42, SRI)

Continues to do well enough in doubles(223rd) to hang right around the 200 mark while gradually slipping in singles. The current training evaluation is 5.38. Continuing on pace for the expected 'high' 5.4 or 'low' 5.5 ending point, hopefully the latter, with just over two years to go. After this year, I need to be cautious in making sure I don't over-shoot the mark. If I get to 45 without enough xp in the bank to become a trainer, he just retires and I lose all the effort. That would be the stuff nightmares are made of, so caution will definitely be in order.

65(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(16, SRI)

Kasaravalli stayed at the JG4 level all last year and it ended up for the best as he didn't win his final few events. Endurance is still an issue. It's looking like a weak class with only two players ranked higher that are younger than Amrik right now.

Manager: 4th, 28.2k points. This has been staying steady for a while. Hugoboy, manager of the Kaspars, is over 50k but everyone else is pretty much in contact. And I expect to more or less tread water until Mehul is made into a trainer. Then things will get more interesting.

Brian Swartz

04-21-2018, 06:42 PM

Surpassing Gorritepe
Kaspar's Coronation

The title of this section is not an accident. All debate is now over as to who is the GOAT. It's already been cataloged that he has the two best seasons in history, the longest string of Slam success, etc. Here are the relevant shortlists:

Slam Titles

1. Mateo Kaspar - 26
2. Eric Gorritepe - 23
3. Nicholas Sullivan - 17
4. Martin Prieto - 16
5. Antonin Iglar - 14
6. Oliver Haresign - 11

WTF Titles

1. Mateo Kaspar - 9
2. Eric Gorritepe - 6
3. Martin Prieto - 5
4(t). Antonin Iglar - 4
4(t). Marcelo Rios - 4

This one in particular is just ridiculous. Half-again better than anyone else. Nobody but Mateo has won the year-end event in almost a full decade. This last year he was just a few weeks younger than Gorritepe's record for the oldest to win the title there. I'm not betting against him setting that mark with a 10th crown this season.

Masters Titles

1. Mateo Kaspar - 55
2. Eric Gorritepe - 52
3(t). Antonin Iglar - 32
3(t). Nicholas Sullivan - 32
5. Martin Prieto - 30
6. Oliver Haresign - 23

This is where his legacy was dented the most this year. Of course it's still just a matter of how high his record goes. And we might just mention here that he's the first ... ever ... to win multiple Olympic singles golds. Just for some icing on the cake.

Weeks at #1

1. Eric Gorritepe - 393
2. Mateo Kaspar - 391
3. Martin Prieto - 340
4. Nicholas Sullivan - 304
5. Antonin Iglar - 247
6. Oliver Haresign - 228

This might be the best record of them all, and it's guaranteed to fall. There's no way he loses the top spot until at least after the Australian Open, at which point he'll have added a minimum of four to his mark.

Prize Money

1. Martin Prieto - $122.9M
2. Eric Gorritepe - $105M
3. Mateo Kaspar - $96.6M
4. Oliver Haresign - $82.5M
5. Marcelo Rios - $80.0M
6. Nicholas Sullivan - $78.4M
7. Antonin Iglar -- $78.3M

Soon he will become the sport's third $100 million-dollar man, long held as a cross-world standard of greatness.

What more is there to be said? Mateo stands alone at the pinnacle, the standard by which all future legends will be judged. I expect it will be decades anyone sees the like of him again.

Brian Swartz

04-21-2018, 09:34 PM

2059 Preview

1. Mateo Kaspar(83%, 8.87, -0.07)

30 years old, and still slightly better than any player I have every had was at their peak. I think he overachieved two years ago, underachieved last year, and I expect a middle ground this year with Mateo being a comfortable #1 probably the whole way.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(87%, 8.67, -0.16)

Wasn't quite as good last year as this indicates and I don't think he's fallen quite this far either, but definitely past his best tennis now. All evidence indicates we've seen his best shot, but Ritwik should still be quite good for at least another couple years.

3. Karl Kaspar(96%, 8.51, +0.12)

Only a merely-average mental game prevents him from being a real threat to the #2 spot at least. I think Prince Karl will have to spend another year of apprenticeship closing the gap before he ascends further. He should easily be able to hold off any challenge from the rest of the Top 10.

4. Gilberto Chinaglia(91%, 8.33, +0.08)

Clay expertise, big-time serve, strong mentality ... but he doesn't have the baseline play or power to consistently back it up. I honestly think he caught lightning in a bottle last year and I don't think he can do it again at RG. I usually avoid such bold predictions since you never know what can happen; but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

5. Dick Blake(88%, 8.32, -0.02)

Continuing a barely-perceptible slide, Blake is doing well staving off Father Time.

6. Guus Dircx(83%, 8.43, -0.19)

This is what switching to doubles training can do to you. Even his mental strength won't arrest this, though there's still enough ability to hang in the Top 10 most likely.

7. Hsuang-tsung Teng(84%, 8.31, -0.14)

The lure of doubles has caught Teng, also down three spots from last year, as well. His prognosis is likewise similar.

8. Gregory Mackenzie(88%, 8.31, -0.13)

Mackenzie doesn't have that excuse, and he shouldn't be declining this fast yet.

9. Tristan Allende(93%, 8.30, -0.04)

That's definitely not what I expected to see. A slight decline at his age ... yet he rocketed up here from 30th position a year ago?? One of those two things will definitely need to revert to the mean, but at this point I wouldn't expect Allende to be a threat for much more unless he is able to grow his skills.

10. Cristian Castelgali(90%, 8.27, -0.04)

8th a year ago, and he's probably near the end of his days on the first page.

11. Stuart Pargeter(92%, 8.33, +0.02)

I do have to say Pargeter should be improving somewhat more than this -- but also, that he's right there with anyone that isn't in that Top 3. Almost all of the others are declining so I still think he should spend significant time in the Top 10 this year. Any small factor could tip the scales for him in either direction.

13. Kenneth Brasher(96%, 7.80, ??)

Time to get to know the Brits. Brasher has a fine serve but is weak from the back of the court and slow. It's a mystery to me how he's risen this far this fast, but I do expect some manner of regression.

14. Hamal Sbai(93%, 8.63, +0.02)

I've never seen a player rated this high not be able to make progress. I think it's the weak serve that has cost Sbai, though it is improving. Baseline play is exceeded only by Dudwadkar, and he has the potential according to this to be the world's third-best player, ahead of Prince Karl. Hamal will need to continue his strong play at the end of the last year though -- he is quickly running out of time here.

15. Veini Aikio(94%, 8.12, +0.09)

Aikio is essentially the opposite of Sbai; he has the best serve on the tour currently, and it has brought him steady improvement.

16. Serge Cardone(91%, 8.04, +0.05)

17. Hugo Cordova(93%, 8.16, +0.13)

Cordova looks set to follow the same course as Aikio, an elite serve and a better(and quicker-improving) overall package. Not by much, but he's the one player in this range right now that seems a solid bet to make the Top 10.

20. Prakash Mooljee(73%, 7.96)

21. Adam Hagans(96%, 7.86, ??)

Hagans isn't much different from Brasher, although not as over-ranked. He also depends more on athleticism, and less on his technical abilities.

22. Lucas Kaspar(95%, 7.93, +0.17)

Limited athletic ability means Lucas will need to rely on improving his technical abilities, especially in rally situations, to continue advancing.

23. Chad Duncan(94%, 7.94, ??)

Third Brit and they are all in the same ability range. Duncan appears to be a little better technically; his serve is already quite effective. I think he could actually well end up being the best of the trio.

24. Sushant Chiba(98%, 8.26, +0.28)

I'm quite pleased with this level of improvement. At this point Chiba should reasonably expect to continue moving up. I figure he should be around 15th before long, and be on the doorstep of the Top 10 by year's end.

25. Esteban Cortina(93%, 8.18, ??)

Another newcomer. Cortina has a lot going for him, but also an abysmally-bad serve; much more inadequate than Sbai's(it's at 3.3 right now, with 4.0 the standard for top players). It'll be hard for him to produce quality results at this level so long as that continues, and he has very limited time to change his development.

27. Leo Kaspar(96%, 8.12, ??)

Leo definitely has a brighter future than Lucas in my view. He's no Mateo or even Karl, but good athleticism and mental abilities make him a near shoo-in for the Top 10 so long as he keeps developing.

31. Stanley Edleman(96%, 8.08, +0.13)

Still showing solid gains. Further evidence that last season's stall in the rankings should be considered merely an anomaly.

32. Chalerm Prachuab(97%, 8.03, ??)

Slow but a strong mental game and solid technical skills for his age. Prachuab is another meteoric player, and figures to have a very similar career path to Edleman from this point out.

36. Mike Rhodes(99%, 7.47, ??)

Rhodes is clearly not as good as his ranking would indicate, though he certainly could still be a major factor. Immensely strong and a clay expert, he's emphasized those assets and an already-quality serve into some early good results. Problem is a totally anemic baseline game that needs a ton of work. How well that works out for him will be an interesting thing to watch, but I think it will be a while before we hear anything big from him.

389. Anil Mehul(55%, 6.33, -0.26)

Even pretty-good futures players have now surpassed Mehul. His days as a champion are a long time in the rear-view mirror indeed.

65(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(76%, 4.11, +1.05)

This is somewhat below the typical improvement rate, demonstrating once again the inferior endurance issue here.

There continues to be a horde of young players coming up, while most of the Top 10 is declining. Only a couple(Karl Kaspar, Tristan Allende) are currently in place, but more will come soon.

Brian Swartz

05-08-2018, 12:03 AM

Q1 Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(30, FRA) - 15,310

Mateo has shown the heart of a champion in the early going this year. He's unblemished so far, but it has been far from easy. An epic AO final saw Dudwadkar push him to 8-6 in the 5th, and both hardcourt Masters went the distance as well. Indian Wells was a 6-4 triumph of Prince Karl, and Dudwadkar was back for a tiebreak in Miami. But each time the King found a way to win.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(28, SRI) - 13,350

That Australian final would have put Ritwik back in the #1 spot for several weeks had he managed to pull it off. It was close(200-194 in points) and he served well(25 aces) but it wasn't enough. He's doing more than enough to stay in the runners-up spot so far.

3. Karl Kaspar(24, FRA) - 7,800

A steady rise for the Prince, and more of the same expected. The hill to climb is a large one though. His record against Dudwadkar is 12 matches, 12 defeats -- including one in the WTC already this year and a match in Paris last season. They've been close recently, but until he starts winning those consistently he's staying right where he is.

4. Dick Blake(26, USA) - 5,600

Steady results for the already-declining phoenix; Blake was a semifinalist at both IW and Miami, taking advantage of the home crowd.

5. Gilberto Chinaglia(26, ITA) - 5,330

Soon we'll see if the Italian can repeat last year's clay-court dominance, or if he's just a one-hit wonder.

6. Hsuang-tsung Teng(29, NZL) - 4,400

After Australia he and Dircx began to focus on doubles exclusively, so it's over for Teng in terms of these rankings.

7. Cristian Castegali(26, MEX) - 3,910

A couple of quarterfinals in the big events have Castegali continuing to show himself a steady player.

8. Gregory Mackenzie(28, USA) - 3,835

Hasn't looked particularly great this year(just the one QF at Indian Wells), but so far just enough to keep him ahead of the pack.

9. Tristan Allende(25, USA) - 3,660

Hard to complain about a SF showing at AO(l. Dudwadkar); a couple of QFs on his home turf weren't spectacular, but not terrible either. Not the explosion I thought we might see, but the rise of Karl has made it tougher to break through any further. He's still a comer.

10. Kenneth Brasher(24, GBR) - 3,395

Continuing to play WAY above his head.

11. Stuart Pargeter(26, USA)

And this guy's still the opposite. Third round in Australia(l. Edleman in five sets). R3 in Indian Wells(l. Sorel??) and R2 in Miami(l. Svajnovic). All close defeats, but only one at most is excusable. He did win the Rotterdam 500 in between there, but that doesn't come close to compensating for this kind of epic choke-job. Pargeter is frittering away what should be one of his best seasons.

12. Hamal Sbai(26, MOR)

Gradually showing signs. He's supposed to be a quality player on clay, so let's see him demonstrate it this year and vault into the Top 10 finally.

14. Hugo Cordova(25, USA)

Over 3k points. That's rather astonishing - there have been times when you barely can find 10 guys at that level. This is as many as I've ever seen, and it was more before Dircx plummeted past. It's really tough to bash your way further up here, as multiple players have and are discovering. For Cordova, he's up another three spots in the early months, continuing his gradual ascent.

17. Veini Aikio(25, FIN)

Perhaps hitting the wall now.

18. Serge Cardone(26, FRA)

Also down a couple spots.

20. Lucas Kaspar(24, FRA)

+2.

21. Adam Hagans(23, GBR)

Holding steady, unlike his countryman Brasher who can do no wrong.

22. Sushant Chiba(22, SRI)

Not up a huge amount in terms of position(was 24th), but a four-set loss to Sbai in the Australian 3rd round was followed by making a round better at Indian Wells, then his first QF in Miami -- where he beat Svajnovic and then #8 Mackenzie in a third-set tiebreak. That could prove to be a defining, spring-board upset for Chiba. It did put him on the WTC team, where he contributed to a 4-1 win over Italy that put Sri Lanka into the knockout rounds. A loss, and we would have been sent out in group play with France the victors.

23. Leo Kaspar(23, FRA)

Still moving upo.

24. Stanley Edleman(22, USA)

Stanley leapt above Chiba for a month or so thanks to a run to the Acapulco(500) final - he's done treading water apparently and joining the upwards push.

25. Esteban Cortina(25, ESP)

26. Chalerm Prachaub(22, THA)

A couple of early-season trips to 250 semis have Prachuab the third wheel now in the Edleman class. Svajnovic, not so much -- it's all he can do to stay in the Top 50 these days.

28. Jacek Andrejova(22, CZE)

A new one here -- the Czech Republic perhaps making a return? It's almost all Challengers for young Jacek, so we'll see how well he sticks.

31. Chad Duncan(31, GBR)

Down from 23rd already. Not all of the Brits finding it easy going here .

32. Prakash Mooljee(32, SRI)

Sinking, but new management is focusing more on doubles. He's got himself back on the national team there at Chiba's expense.

34. Mike Rhodes(21, PHI)

Holding just outside, although he was up to 32nd briefly.

390. Anil Mehul(43, SRI)

Briefly made it back into the Top 100 with some good WTC doubles results. Holding in singles and now slipping to the lower futures tiers. And of course now less than two years to go for training.

105(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(16, SRI)

Down 40 spots but it's not that unusual for juniors here. So far in tier-3 he has one final and a couple of QFs to show for it. I'm also experimenting with a new training approach with him. I'm going for a 'smoother' training path - more even skill/service at the start with the gap between them gradually widening. Based on what I've seen from other players(Sbai's struggles, big servers moving up quickly) I think this will help get through the challenger ranks a little better. No change to what I'll do for players once they reach the top, it's just a question of how best to do things while they are getting there. I'm also emphasizing clay a little more as that tends to decline in top player -- gotta practice where the best are and most of the year athat's on hardcourts. So we'll see how that works out.

law90026

05-08-2018, 06:46 AM

Why age 45 to be a trainer btw?

Brian Swartz

05-08-2018, 06:55 AM

Players automatically retire at 45. If you don't make them a trainer by that time, you lose the option. You can do it earlier of course, but that limits how much they can improve their abilities and therefore the quality of training they'll provide.

law90026

05-08-2018, 10:30 AM

Ah ok was wondering what the thought process was behind that.

Separately I recall you said you create new players on week 52. Is there a reason for that?

Brian Swartz

05-08-2018, 01:06 PM

That's more personal preference -- I like to have them begin at the start of a calendar year. It would probably be a little more optimal not to do it then though. To get the most benefit from juniors you could aim to have players turn 18 just after the start of the year -- that would mean creating them between Wimbledon and the USO as most of them come in at about 14 and a half.

Brian Swartz

05-20-2018, 09:00 PM

Q2 Rankings Update

It was pretty much a bizarre, topsy-turvy spring on the tennis courts this year.

1. Mateo Kaspar(FRA, 30) - 15,230

King Mateo is still the unquestioned #1. He only added one Masters(Rome), losing a tight Wimbledon final to Dudwadkar that he should have won for the second straight year(nine straight finals there, but it should be eight straight titles as well). In Madrid, his clay season got off to a rocky start as none other than Chiba bounced him in the third round. At RG, a straight-set loss to Prince Karl in the semis was a lot more palatable. Those are his only three losses of the year, and kept him in a safe lead but not nearly the dominance we've seen in the past.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(SRI, 29) - 10,850

Ritwik looked to be falling off a cliff in the clay season; third-round exits in both Masters, then a 4th-round departure at Roland Garros, straight-sets to Stuart Pargeter. Clearly Dudwadkar was no longer in the conversation of the tour's best players -- until he won the Halle(500) warmup and then trounced his way through the Wimbledon draw, coming back from two sets down against the King in the final for a second straight year. This season's scoreline was 6-7(4), 4-6, 6-1, 6-4, 8-6. Second slam this year with an 8-6 final set between these two; the first was Kaspar's triumph in Australia. In any case, Sri Lanka's current senior statesman ensured he'd be relevant for at least another year with this surge, which saw him also beat Mackenize in five in the semifinals beforehand. There's not much in Mateo's career to quibble with, but his late-career Wimbledon results are a real sore spot - and Ritwik's responsible. Enough to keep him in the top-challenger spot for now.

3. Karl Kaspar(FRA, 24) - 9,360

Karl could well be #2 by year's end or before. After semifinal exits in Rome and Madrid, he staked to claim to being arguably the best clay player on the planet with a run to claim his first Slam title at Roland Garros. Didn't lose a set until the final, which could have gone either way; 10-8 in the 5th over Pargeter who definitely needed it more. A great tournament by both players, but the heir apparent is stepping forward here. He's closed most of the gap needed to move up to #2.

4. Dick Blake(USA, 27) - 4,890

Look at the points gap here; Karl Kaspar has almost double Blake's total. It looks like it's going to be a merry-go-round for this 'best of the rest' spot until someone separates themselves from the herd.

5. Gilberto Chinaglia(ITA, 26) - 4,840

Chinaglia proved to be a one-hit wonder as the best on the dirt, but beat a couple of pesky Brits to get to the Wimbledon semis and stay in contention for the 4th spot.

6. Stuart Pargeter(USA, 26) - 4,350

Better late than never? Showed a lot more moxie on clay than I thought he possessed, inches away from winning RG and also making the final in Rome. He figures now to peak somewhere in the 3rd-5th range, depending on how things go for him the next couple of years. This is the break he needed two years ago.

7. Tristan Allende(USA, 25) -- 4,040

Easy to forget about him this time of year. It'll be a lot harder in the summer.

8. Hamal Sbai(MOR, 26) -- 3,860

Another player finally pulling his cranium out of his posterior. Final at Monte Carlo, SF at Madrid, then kind of fell flat in the Channel Slams. Overplaying was part of it, but he's taken another step here for sure.

9. Hugo Cordova(USA, 25) - 3,660

Trying to have his cake and eat it too by playing in doubles, Cordova got away with it; SF at RG, QF at Wimbledon. That's enough to vault him into WTF contention, but eventually he's going to have to choose.

10. Gregory Mackenzie(USA, 28) - 3,595

Half of this Top 10 hails from the United States.

12. Kenneth Brasher(GBR, 24)

Interesting situation now with the top players from Great Britain good enough for that homecourt edge at Wimbledon to get them a round or two. Haven't run into that before in this dynasty because none of them have been strong enough players for it to matter. That's no longer the case.

13. Sushant Chiba(SRI, 23)

The defining moment for Chiba was his shocking run to take the title at the Madrid Masters. King Mateo and Prince Karl both were victimized, as was Chinaglia in the final. The one thousand points he got there is still just over a third of his total. I definitely wouldn't give the title back, but it also had some negative side effects. I wasn't planning on him going that far obviously, and it played into an early Rome loss and a third-round defeat to Prachuab in four at Roland Garros. Then at Wimbledon, third-round out again, 21st-seeded Chad Duncan in a close four. Chiba is never going to be a great player on grass with how slow he is, and combine that with the crowd edge to Duncan and it's a understandable loss. Sushant is now at his career-high ranking, knocking on the edge of the Top 10, and has yet to make it past the third round of a Slam(six straight losses at that stage). It's no real secret what he needs to do now for the next step.

14. Veini Aikio(FIN, 25)

19. Chalerm Prachuab(THA, 23)

A surprisingly strong year for him.

20. Adam Hagans(GBR, 24)

21. Chad Duncan(GBR, 24)

23. Esteban Cortina(ESP, 26)

Looking like perhaps he has peaked. Spain sure ain't what it used to be.

24. Jacek Andrejova(CZE, 23)

Big jump already from 35th last year.

26. Stanley Edleman(USA, 24)

Seems to be treading water here, but still has time.

27. Venicio Penni(ITA, 26)

Only 48th at the start of the year, Penni is making a bid to come this year's 'surprise newcomer/journeyman'.

28. Tomas Guadiana(ARG, 24)

A 4th-round showing at Wimbledon was his best in a Slam yet, and has Guadiana thinking bigger thoughts. Up from 40th.

30. Nino Tarkhan-Mouravi(GRG, 23)

Umm, who??? After hovering just outside the Top 32 last year this foreigner is moving up. He's got established management and is playing an eclectic mix of events, mostly losing early in big ones. Still, one to watch for the future.

31. Brian Meikeljohn(IND, 21)

Top 32 at age 21. That's impressive. I kept seeing this name as a qualifier in various events. Figures that those days are largely over now. He was just 74th at the start of the year. A quick survey of his abilities shows that he could be a great one. Possibly the best returner-of-serve ever, with speed topping at out ... brace yourself ... 5.4 right now. Endurance and strength are quality but not great, fairly good mental game, and a good technical balance for his age right now. Manager doesn't have a long track record, but clearly doing something right here. Quality but not great trainer(4.8). As I write this he prepares the final of another 250.

I'm solid. Watch the name Brian Meikeljohn. Great first name(*snicker*) and for us Sri Lankans, he hails from nearby India. What else is weird? Not a created player, a natural regen. Who was hired by hugoboy(the House Kaspar manager) early on, then fired two years later. Then the current manager picked him up right away, and has stuck with him for over five years now. To impressive effect I might add. He's my 'too-early' favorite for the next non-Kaspar to sit on the throne of international tennis.

32. Henri Sorel(CAN, 25)

Despite his somewhat youngish age, Sorel's basically at his peak. Clearly wasn't quite good enough.

33. Mike Rhodes(PHI, 21)

This phenom is stuck in 'not quite there yet'. But he's close.

442. Anil Mehul(SRI, 43)

Up to 132nd in doubles now that he's back on the national team for that. Generally not making it very far even in tier-3 futures.

112(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(SRI, 17)

Endurance really showing itself to be a problem; still has issues at the end of the JG3 events. Two finals and two semis in the last four though, so I think it's just the being worn out that is stopping him from winning them.

Izulde

05-21-2018, 03:30 PM

What's the current worst country in the world?

Brian Swartz

05-21-2018, 11:37 PM

Interesting question. It's Malaysia, and it's not close. They have the minimum 100 points, and have had that amount for as long as the game tracks history(a few decades, so not all the way back to the beginning). At other points there have been countries tied with them for worst, but their national best is 100 points so they've literally never won a WTC tie, even at the lowest tier, in the entirety of their history. They suck every bit as much as Sri Lanka did when I began this (mis)adventure.

They're so bad, the list ranks them 88th … out of 86 nations :P. Top player in their history, by far, is Kasem Chutimant, who 'flourished' about 15 years ago and reached 153rd in singles, 205th in doubles. A low-level challenger player at his peak. Another guy decades earlier was a low-level futures performer; nobody else in the Top 1000(meaning they were amateur level at best). Another way of looking at that; my players, when they emerge from the junior level and go pro at age 18, with about four years of physical maturation and nearly a decade of skill development ahead of them, are at least as good as the third-best player Malaysia has produced. Ever.

Or as Emilio Estevez's character in The Mighty Ducks might have put it: "They REALLY suck"

Izulde

05-21-2018, 11:39 PM

Maybe I should give this another go then and try to bring Malayasia to uh, comparative glory by their standards.

Brian Swartz

05-28-2018, 09:59 PM

Q3 Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(FRA, 30) - 14,860

Skipped Cincinatti again because reasons, but took the Canada Masters and the USO -- the latter in yet another 5-setter over Dudwadkar. These two just keep battling it out in the twilight of their careers, with the King still winning most of them. Two more Slam titles would give him an unfathomable 30, and he's less than $1 million in winnings from passing Gorritepe for #2 on that list.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(SRI, 29) - 10,000

Took the gift of the Cincinatti title with three competitive matches to finish it off, then really should have won the US Open after getting crushed by Kaspar at Canada 2 & 1. In Flushing Meadows he out-aced the legend 27-16 but won just 1 of 10 BP chances. Definitely had his chances, and they've had some real wars this year in what is becoming a real rivalry.

3. Karl Kaspar(FRA, 24) -- 9,080

Prince Karl went into the US Open with a real shot at the #2 spot in the rankings, but instead regressed a bit with a QF exit to Mackenzie. He also lost 6-4, 6-4 to Dudwadkar in Cincinatti so he had his chances. Third loss on the year, 0-14 lifetime ... and yet he's still in striking distance.

4. Gilberto Chinaglia(ITA, 27) - 4,970

Made the semis in Cincinatti but otherwhise did very little over the last few months(third round at the USO). Mostly he's here because others fell enough.

5. Hamal Sbai(MOR, 26) - 4,790

A strong year continues(QF loss to M. Kaspar most recently) and he could well snag the #4 by the end of it. As could others.

6. Dick Blake(USA, 27) - 4,780

Too early to be sure, but it looks like he's reached the beginning of the end.

7. Tristan Allende(USA, 25) - 4,110

Won Winston-Salem and made the semifinals at the US Open to finish up his summer with aplomb. Notable there was a 5-set victory in the fourth round over Pargeter, a tough matchup for both players.

8. Stuart Pargeter(USA, 27) - 4,090

Early losses at the USO and Canada(3R to Prachuab?) have this year looking too much like the previous ones. He's at his peak right now it appears so it's not at all clear he's going to get another chance.

9. Hugo Cordova(USA, 25) - 3,930

Continues to gradually make his mark ... and play too many events.

10. Gregory Mackenzie(USA, 28) - 3,865

Quite possibly back in the WTF race after a fine run to the USO semis. Five Americans in a row from 6-10 here. That's a heck of a thing.

11. Veini Aikio(FIN, 25)

Canada semi was his high point, otherwhise just staying solid.

13. Sushant Chiba(SRI, 23)

Yet another third-round Slam loss, this one to Meikeljohn. Told you that guy was a menace. It was close in the last two sets, but still lost in three ... 2-1 overall now against him but this one was the biggie.

14. Kenneth Brasher(GBR, 24)

17. Chalerm Prachuab(THA, 23)

QF in Canada and the win over Pargeter bumped him up quite a bit. He's making a run at it.

19. Brian Meikeljohn(IND, 21)

Top 20 at age 21. That's not done much.

20. Adam Hagans(GBR, 24)

24. Chad Duncan(GBR, 25)

25. Jacek Andrejova(CZE, 23)

28. Mike Rhodes(PHI, 21)

Oh, hi there. Two 21-year-olds in the elite circle. Still hasn't played anything other than Challengers/WTC since the AO in January, so let's not get too excited.

29. Stanley Edleman(USA, 23)

Still stuck it seems. Lost in three tiebreaks to Irishman John Hart in the opening round of his home Slam. That stings.

30. Henri Sorel(CAN, 25)

31. Tomas Guadiana(ARG, 24)

32. Ugljesa Svajnovic(CRO, 23)

Told you he'd be back. Beat #4 Chinaglia and Brasher as well en route to the USO quarterfinals. Heady stuff for an unseeded player. And by the way the youngsters keep on coming; next four players after him are also 25 or younger.

416. Anil Mehul(SRI, 43)

148th doubles. More importantly, a year and a half to go on his training work. Tick-tock.

125(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(SRI, 17)

Pretty well stuck here until he manages to win some tier-3 events, which hasn't happened yet. Definitely behind schedule, though it's not surprising.

britrock88

06-04-2018, 11:25 AM

This year's WTF race is nuts.

britrock88

06-04-2018, 11:46 AM

There's a closely bunched set of players starting at #4 in the world and ending at about #12. Here's how the group stacks up heading into the Paris Masters, a 1000-point tournament and the last of the year before the rankings for the World Tour Finals are set.

(For reference, #3 Karl Kaspar has 9720 points, and #13 Cristian Castelgali has 2810.)

4. Gilberto Chinaglia (ITA) - 5000 (10)

After last year's first-round crash-out in Paris, he has almost nothing to lose, so he should be safe.

5. Hamal Sbai (MAR) - 4775 (90)

A title at the Japan Open 500 (H) a few weeks back, followed by a QF appearance (180) at the Shanghai Masters (H), has put Sbai in a strong position.

6. Dick Blake (USA) - 4480 (90)

Recently finished as runner-up in the China Open (300) (H) and a quarterfinalist (180) in the Shanghai Masters (H) to recapture his position as the top American.

7. Stuart Pargeter (USA) - 4405 (10)

A run to the semifinals (180) of the China Open (H) and the Shanghai Masters (H) (360) have helped Pargeter maintain an inside track to a WTF berth.

8. Tristan Allende (USA) - 4340 (180)

Has been playing catch-up throughout hard-court season; wins at 250s in Atlanta and Winston-Salem led into a SF (720) at the US Open. He's also since been the runner-up (300) at the Japan Open (H) and a semifinalist (360) at the Shanghai Masters (H). Despite all that, he is obviously the most vulnerable, with the most points to defend and positioned at #8.

9. Gregory Mackenzie (USA) - 4125 (90)

Has a couple 500 SFs (180) since his SF run (720) at the US Open. Has a strong history at Paris, with SF and QF appearances 2 and 3 years ago.

10. Hugo Cordova (USA) - 4000 (10)

Has not done much since grabbing the title at the Shenzhen 250 (H), skipping both 500 opportunities since then.

11. Veini Aikio (FIN) - 3615 (360)

Aikio has skipped Paris and has a SF finish from last year coming off the books, so he is on the outside for the WTF.

12. Sushant Chiba (SRI) - 3570 (90)

Chiba has come on strong of late, with a title at the Open de Moselle 250 (I), a QF (180) at the Shanghai Masters (H), and a runner-up finish (300) at the Swiss Indoors 500, but he will need to make hay in Paris to leap into the Top 8.

---

All in all, there may not be much movement after Paris. But this group, particularly the American-stacked #6-#10 range, is just so tightly packed!

As of this writing, everyone here has made the third round/round of 16, good for 90 points. Matchups of interest are Blake/Mackenzie, Chinaglia/Cordova, Pargeter/Chiba, Allende/Leo Kaspar (WC), and Sbai/Meiklejohn (15).

britrock88

06-04-2018, 02:19 PM

Winners are Mackenzie (in a rout), Cordova, Pargeter, Allende, and Sbai. Heading into the QFs, the standings would be:

5. Sbai - 4855
6. Pargeter - 4575
7. Blake - 4480
8. Allende - 4340
9. Mackenzie - 4215
10. Cordova - 4170

Sbai (along with Chinaglia) are locked in, and Pargeter is safe with Mackenzie and Cordova on the same half of the bracket.

QF matchups are Mateo Kaspar (1)/Mackenzie, Pargeter/Cordova, Dudwadkar (2)/Allende, and Karl Kaspar (3)/Sbai.

britrock88

06-04-2018, 02:22 PM

Brian Swartz

06-04-2018, 06:18 PM

Good writeup! I'm really glad those Americans can't just pool their talents into a truly great player or two.

thehitcat

06-05-2018, 12:35 PM

Congrats to all three of us having a player in the upcoming finals. Probably old hat for you Brian but these are heady times for me.

britrock88

06-06-2018, 09:57 AM

Either Mackenzie or Cordova can oust Allende by advancing one round farther than Allende, though it would be the winner of that potential SF that would take the WTF spot (moving ahead of Blake and Pargeter in the process), supposing Allende doesn't make the final. If Allende does make the final, winner takes the last spot up for grabs.

Just to complete the thread, the tourney went scratch from there (though there were some tight three-setters). Allende made the cut; when the WTF results from last year are taken out, Chinaglia fell to 6 and Blake to 8.

Brian Swartz

06-06-2018, 11:25 AM

Blake's on his way out, the WTF is particularly important for the players the two of you coach I would think. There's a chance Prince Karl overtakes Dudwadkar for the #2 spot but that ship mostly sailed I think with the Paris SF going my way. He'd need to basically win it to make that happen. The #4 though and early advantage next year could easily go to Sbai, Pargeter, or Chinaglia, all of whom are within a single round-robin win of each other. Similar indoor proficiencies and I'd favor Sbai right now based on his serve and the fact that he'll win the tie if all of them do the same since he's got the spot right now.

Bouchlaghem

06-06-2018, 03:10 PM

Brian Swartz

06-07-2018, 03:36 PM

Good to have you join the discussion! I only play in the one gameworld(RR1). I dabbled in others briefly for testing purposes but that's about it.

The World Tour Finals have been interesting so far. Blake and Allende didn't win a set, and Chinaglia only did against Allende. So those three earn the 'I'm here to collect a paycheck' award, leaving five others to contend for semifinal berths. In Group 1 Hamal Sbai runs the table, beating the only guy to win this event in almost a decade 6-4, 6-4, and a perfect 5-for-5 on break points to boot. I want some of what he's smoking. Group 2 is a three-way tie as everyone beats Blake, Pargeter beats Dudwadkar, Dudwadkar beats Karl Kaspar, and Prince Karl beats Pargeter to complete the circle. The 'Black Prince of Kaspar' is odd man out though which guarantees Dudwadkar he'll stay #2. At 29 and a half, he's pretty darned happy with that.

Semifinal matchups:

** (4) Sbai vs. (2) Dudwadkar -- Hamal's got the #4 at year-end just about wrapped up and should clinch it here. His serve should be good enough to get him through on my weakest surface, although Ritwik will be fresher which makes thing interesting.

** (5) Pargeter vs. (1) M. Kaspar -- It's a weird world when winning your round-robin ground gets you the 9-time defending champion. King Kaspar is set up better for the final couple of rounds and it's hard to see him losing this.

Looks like a Sbai-Kaspar final rematch of the group play to me. I'm not betting against the King, who is bidding here to become the oldest player ever to win this event(by almost a full year over Gorritepe).

thehitcat

06-07-2018, 06:57 PM

What a run! What a first set! What an implosion!!! Ugh... Good luck against the King.

Brian Swartz

06-07-2018, 11:59 PM

LOL. I feel even sorrier for you after the final; it could have been you. Or Pargeter, who beat me in the group stage.

So to complete the story of the World Tour Finals, both first-timers bow out in the semis after doing very well to get there. Hamal Sbai takes the first set against Ritwik Dudwadkar, but it got worse for him as the match wore on. Despite a 14-7 ace edge he falls 3-6, 6-4, 6-1. Stuart Pargeter got himself good and truly stomped by King Kaspar in the earlier matchup. Which sets up Dudwadkar's first-ever final in this event … and he ends Mateo Kaspar's reign of terror and bid for an even more ridiculous legacy, 7-6(6), 6-4! Only 11 total aces and one break of serve in the entire match, six points separating the players but Ritwik deserved the win, being a little more effective in his return games than Kaspar was. First tour finals title at 29. I don't know if I've ever seen that before. That'll make it a lot easier to hold on to his position.

At the end of the year, Kaspar will still have about a 2,000-point lead over Dudwadkar, a little less than that back to Prince Karl. Sbai(4th) and Pargeter(5th) also strengthen their grip on those positions, putting a bit of distance between themselves and the rest of the Top 10. Chiba is 11th, ready to pounce on any stragglers. Usual end-of-year writeup in a few days but it promises to be an interesting 2060 season. This was definitely a most unexpected result.

Bouchlaghem

06-09-2018, 07:26 PM

Have you ever tried voting on gaming sites from different IPs in the same 24 hour window? Haven't tried myself, but not sure why they would be so against it since a vote IS a vote for them, regardless of where it comes from.

Brian Swartz

06-11-2018, 10:16 AM

I have not. I did the voting thing briefly, but soon decided it wasn't worth the trouble compared to the reasonable(at least IMO) cost of just buying the VIP account.

Brian Swartz

06-11-2018, 10:39 AM

World Team Cup Finals

Headed into the final, France was hot on our tail with less than a 50-point gap, meaning that if we lost against a nation featuring two of the top three players in the world, our long reign as the #1 tennis country in the world was over. That was the expected result, but it being held on clay left us with some chances.

** Monday - Dudwadkar d. K. Kaspar, 2-6, 7-6(10), 6-4, 7-6(2). A tense and vital match to be sure, esp. that second-set tiebreak which threatened to put Ritwik down two sets. Almost dead-even by the stats; Dudwadkar was a little better after a bad first set. Overall points to the Black Prince, 145-142. A huge win here.

** Tuesday - M. Kaspar d. S. Chiba, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-2. Expected, but at least he had to work for it some. Tied at 1, it's now a best-of-three.

** Wednesday - A. Mehul/G. Kansai d. J. Ardant/I. Rumaintsev, 7-6(7), 7-5, 3-6, 6-0. I honestly expected more from the French doubles, but this puts us one win from the title. Even at 43, Mehul is still playing a key role of the national team.

** Thursday - R. Dudwadkar d. M. Kaspar, 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-3, 6-3. Incredible comeback, and even moreso to beat both of them in the same week! After going down 2-0, Dudwadkar really dominated the back end of the match. One wonders if the 31-year-old Mateo had physical issues. In any case, for the first time in three years we're back on top, and the #1 spot in the nation rankings is clinched!

** Friday - K. Kaspar d. S. Chiba, 6-7(1), 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-1. Another four-set loss. Chiba was a serious customer in both but they end up as instructive defeats. I'd hoped he could get one, as I didn't think we'd win without that happening. Fortunately I ended up being wrong about that.

Sri Lanka defeats France, 3-2!! They've been world champions the last two years so it's great to restore the 'proper place' of things.

2060 Nation Rankings

1. Sri Lanka - 2599
2. France - 2457
3. United States - 2439
4. Argentina - 2243
5. Spain - 2051
6. Germany - 1979
7. Chile - 1965
8. Croatia - 1918
9. Russia - 1827
10. Thailand - 1812

Morocco drops to 13th after making this list last year.

Playoffs

** Canada(14th) vs. Germany(6th) - Despite the rankings, Germany is trying to get back in the top tier. Henri Sorel(33rd) is the only Top 50 player on either team, but the Germans have better balance and it was enough to get them a narrow 3-2 victory. The Canadians are demoted.

** Croatia(8th) vs. Australia(22nd) - Both came in as Tier 1 nations having fallen on hard times. Svajnovic did enough to lead Croatia to a 3-2 win, and Australia goes down.

** The Netherlands(18th) vs. Finland(37th) - Veini Aikio(12th) fails in his quest to keep the Fins up with no help. He didn't lose a set, but nobody else for his country won one in a 3-2 loss.

** Thailand(10th) vs. Mexico(17th) - Interesting matchup as both are good enough to play in the top tier. They met in the Level 2 final with Thailand winning 3-2; here that result was reversed, and this is the one that matters most. The grass surface was a determiner as much as anything. Both have a high-ranking player(#13 Castegali for Mexico, #18 Prachuab for Thailand) and a second that is credible. Mexico goes up, but I'd expect to see Thailand back next year for another crack at it and hopefully a more favorable draw.

Lots of movement as someone was promoted or demoted in each matchup. Next year we're in Group 2 with the United States(3rd), The Netherlands(18th), and the Phillipines(23rd). So we might not win the group against the USA, but we're in no danger of losing early.

Brian Swartz

06-12-2018, 09:55 AM

2060 Top Player Rankings

1. Mateo Kaspar(31, FRA) - 13,560

Skipping Masters events is proving hazardous for the King. But he's still the clear #1, with several more wins and half the losses of his top competitors. The latest thing he's done is to surpass Gorritepe for #2 on the all-time prize money list; and record-holder Prieto played in an era with no form mechanic so his numbers are inflated.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(29, SRI) - 11,050

A strong finish including his first-ever WTF title helped mask the fact that Dudwadkar posted his worst record in four years at 75-13. So far though, he's managing to hold off the Black Prince quite effectively by beating him in front of his home crowd at the Paris SF and in the tour finals group plays as well.

3. Karl Kaspar(25, FRA) - 9,270

Karl actually had the second-most wins on tour(77-14). The story of his year though was a stunning 1-6 H2H against Dudwadkar, to add on to 0-11 before this year. That left him with titles in Shanghai and Roland Garros, which wasn't enough. The only question really for him now is whether he can get the upper hand in that matchup. If and when he does, he's well-positioned to becoming the elder Kaspar's top challenger.

4. Hamal Sbai(26, MOR) - 5,385

Morocco's first-ever Top 50 player has finally broken through. Better late than never for the big-serving Sbai, who was runner-up in Monte Carlo and a semifinalist in Madrid and the tour finals. Mostly though it was consistent quarterfinal showings. As holder of the critical #4 spot, aka the 'best of the rest', Hamal is well-positioned to go a round further if he can avoid upsets and strengthen his hold here.

5. Stuart Pargeter(27, USA) - 5,155

Another player reaching his potential after underachieving earlier, Pargeter will seek to challenge Sbai for that spot. He put on quite a charge late in the year, with SF showings at Shanghai, Paris, and the tour finals, the last three big events on the calendar. Finalist showings at Rome and Roland Garros earlier also helped. Becoming the top American in the world is no small feat.

6. Gilberto Chinaglia(27, ITA) - 4,880

Chinaglia continues his brand of generally unimpressive play with moments of brilliance. He won Monte Carlo, made the final at Madrid, SF at Cincinatti and Wimbledon ... but didn't have so much as a QF to celebrate anywhere else. Could rise or retreat, there's no telling.

7. Tristan Allende(25, USA) - 4,340

Modest improvement this year for Allende, who seems poised to be the #1 US player eventually .. and opted out of the national team for reasons unknown. Despite his relative youth though, he is like multiple others here basically at his peak so there's no time to waste. A very hit-and-miss season for him with SF results at the AO and USO along with Shanghai, but went out in the third round at half of his Masters showings. That's got to change for him to be a threat to the players above him.

8. Dick Blake(27, USA) - 4,280

A meteoric talent like Allende, Blake is now fading away well past his prime. His high rank was fourth.

9. Gregory Mackenzie(28, USA) - 4,215

Monte Carlo champ in '57, Mackenzie reached as high as #4 as well but is on the decline like Blake.

10. Hugo Cordova(25, USA) - 4,170

There's never a shortage of Americans rising up to take the place of guys like the previous duo. Cordova won't get much better than he is though, as yet another player with short-lived longevity.

11. Sushant Chiba(23, SRI)

A good rise from 24th a year ago, but not with consistency; the majority of his points came from a brilliant run in winning Madrid. Didn't make it past the third round at any Slam event, and he could drop a few spots before he gets past that block to make it onto the first page.

12. Veini Aikio(25, FIN)

Another option as Blake & Mackenzie fall back towards the pack. Up a few from 15th.

14. Kenneth Brasher(24, GBR)

Last year I said 'It's a mystery to me how he's risen this fast, but I do expect some manner of regression'. Only dropped one spot though.

15. Brian Meikeljohn(21, IND)

74th a year ago. Just chew on that. Quite possibly the most remarkable rise in a year I've ever seen. And it's not a fluke. He's a serious contender for the Tour Finals this year despite his age.

18. Chalerm Prachuab(23, THA)

The hope of Thailand had a strong year(up from 32nd) and appears to be on the cusp of bigger things.

20. Chad Duncan(25, GBR)

21. Adam Hagans(24, GBR)

Duncan's up a few spots, Hagans right where he was. Too bad for Britain that they can't combine three good players into someone with the the stuff of a champion.

22. Stanley Edleman(22, USA)

Up from 31st as he may be finally making his move. Needs to avoid early-round upsets in order to make that happen; more consistency.

24. Esteban Cortina(26, ESP)

Quite apparent he's not going anywhere fast.

25. Tomas Guadiana(24, ARG)

Another new entrant to the list. Won the Swiss Indoors(500) late in the year and has done little else.

27. Uglesa Svajnovic(23, CRO)

A hard fall to around 50th, but he bounced back up. The top four from Chiba's class are all solidly in the big time now; we'll see what they make of themselves.

29. Henri Sorel(25, CAN)

A journeyman it seems.

31. Jacek Andrejova(23, CZE)

A lot of challengers still on the resume of this young Czech making his debut in the inner circle.

32. Mike Rhodes(21, PHI)

Even more here. Can't really take either of them too seriously, those Rhodes is a big talent for sure, until they start playing with the big boys more regularly.

12 of the next 13 players are youngish on the upswing of their career. Their appears to be another major push coming, with the majority of them 22, a year younger than Chiba.

540. Anil Mehul(43, SRI)

147th in doubles, and a little over a year left. Still looking like a high 5.4 or low 5.5 trainer. I'd really like it to be the latter, but I don't think he's quite going to make that.

20(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(17, SRI)

Lots of finals and semis in events my other players would have won; he continues to be a step or two behind. The count of younger and better players is at 12 right now.

Brian Swartz

06-12-2018, 10:58 AM

2060 Preview

1. Mateo Kaspar(81%, 8.78, -0.09)

Four years into the decline phase, the King is still the best player in the world. It's not out of the question that he might reach the absurdly unthinkable milestone of a decade spent at #1(443 weeks right now, almost a year better than previous record-holder Gorritepe). 30 Slams(he has 28) seem likely. These are the kinds of unfathomable records that are the questions now; just how patently absurd will his legacy get before his throne finally is taken.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(85%, 8.63, -0.04)

Still good enough to be a threat on an off-day for King Kaspar.

3. Karl Kaspar(94%, 8.50, -0.01)

I ran the numbers twice to make sure. This is not encouraging for Karl. His pedestrian mental game could well keep him in the #3 spot for another year. No matter how you slice it, in terms of development this is a major disappointment after he saw good gains in the previous season.

4. Hamal Sbai(91%, 8.73, +0.10)

Nice improvement last year, and he may have a little more in him but he should be basically at the apex. On paper, the second-best player in the world and capable of challenging anyone. Whatever he's going to do in tennis, it's going to happen in the next year or two. Carpe Diem.

5. Stuart Pargeter(90%, 8.40, +0.07)

This is probably as good as it gets for Pargeter. After the struggles and bad luck of previous years though, it's nice to see him reach his potential here. Pushing any higher is too much to ask, but you never know who might have a bad season and open the door.

6. Gilberto Chinaglia(88%, 8.29, +0.02)

Strong mind and serve are keeping him relevant, but for how much longer?

7. Tristan Allende(91%, 8.29, -0.01)

Second straight small decline for a player who should be improving. Gotta chalk his poor technical development up to poor management. It looks like Allende may never become the Top-5 player he should have been.

8. Dick Blake(86%, 8.28, -0.04)

9. Gregory Mackenzie(86%, 8.36, +0.05)

Well that's surprising. A bit of mini-renaissance here. Nonetheless, look at how tight the scores are here for 5-9. You can see why it was so competitive for the WTF qualification; there's barely a sheet of paper between them. 8.3 is a real bellwether right now; you've got to surpass it to have any chance of breaking through.

10. Hugo Cordova(91%, 8.18, +0.02)

It seems to be mostly luck that Cordova managed to get this close, up from 17th a year ago. I'm not sure he sticks.

11. Sushant Chiba(96%, 8.50, +0.24)

Another strong year of improvement, and he should be able to make his share of QFs in the big events this year. It wouldn't be an actual upset for him to beat half the players ahead of him. Has to make the Tour Finals this year at a minimum.

12. Veini Aikio(92%, 8.10, -0.02)

Still has the best serve in the game, and not nearly enough to go with it.

14. Kenneth Brasher(94%, 7.96, +0.16)

Poor man's Aikio, though the gap there is definitely closing.

15. Brian Meikeljohn(99%, 8.41, NA)

The fastest player in the world. Ever, so far as I know. There's still work to do, but he's Top-10 quality at 21. Meikeljohn basically assures that Chiba will be hard-pressed to ever get to #1; the Black Prince ahead and this guy behind, he'll have to settle for probably third most of his peak years. India has never had a player in the Top 10, so Brian here is going to break all of their records, and likely spend an extended stretch at #1. It's just a matter of time while he works on his technique. Somewhat overbalanced on the serve side, but I would be too if I had that kind of speed to blunt opposing servers.

18. Chalerm Pracuab(95%, 8.15, +0.12)

I'd expect his progress to continue, but slow. Probably ends up in the 12-14 range this year.

20. Chad Duncan(93%, 8.02, +0.08)

Might inch up a bit more.

21. Adam Hagans(95%, 7.97, +0.11)

Duncan and Hagans seem destined to basically copy each other. Really virtually no difference, year after year, between these three Brits.

22. Stanley Edleman(95%, 8.15, +0.07)

Definitely had to be hoping for a little more of a boost, but he's good enough to push in another circle(Top 16 this year I'd say).

25. Tomas Guadiana(94%, 8.08, ??)

Solid all-around but technically behind the curve, and mostly a clay-court player.

27. Uglesa Svajnovic(96%, 8.01, ??)

Kind of strange here. Spent a bit of early time on doubles which is never a good idea. Weakish from the back but already has the serve of a Top 10 player. Slower even than Chiba though. So strengths and weaknesses, but he should be at least Top 20, perhaps more.

31. Jacek Andrejova(96%, 8.23, ??)

Another newcomer to the rundown, and surpringly good despite behind-the-curve technical skills. That's because of his outstanding mental toughness and physical strength. Already dumped some of his potential into doubles, so there's basically a big question mark all over this talented Czech. Could flame out, but he should be a Top 10, quite possibly Top 5 player.

32. Mike Rhodes(99%, 7.77, +0.30)

Rhodes is now arguably good enough to be ranked this high. Still going all-in on serve, power, and clay-court expertise. The kind of guy who could one day dominant the dirt and do nothing anywhere else. His baseline play is always going to be a joke. It'll be interesting to see whether management tries to remedy that to any significant degree. Extreme players are both frustrating and interesting to follow. Definitely making big strides overall though, even if his ranking is exactly what it was a year ago.

540. Anil Mehul(53%, 6.15, -0.18)

Even futures competition is now mostly superior to him. First-round exits in his last two events. The trainer projection, currently at 5.42, is the most important number for him.

20(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(84%, 5.09, +0.98)

Still lagging behind the normal pace.

britrock88

06-12-2018, 10:06 PM

Created an account just for this, I've been following this dynasty for a few months and I decided to get into RR a couple of days ago! I'm not premium yet, and I was thinking of starting a dynasty with Algerian (ALG) players, but I think I'll wait until my current players are done in 6-7 months, then convert the best ones to trainers and create a couple of Algerians with some saved up credits. Are any of you in GW2 or GW12?

I'm dabbling in GW2 (had played in both worlds in the past), but am just leaving a couple Japenese players in vacation mode to see how limiting that is to their development. (Spoiler: the AI tournament selection is lacking.)

thehitcat

06-13-2018, 09:25 AM

I'm dabbling in GW2 (had played in both worlds in the past), but am just leaving a couple Japenese players in vacation mode to see how limiting that is to their development. (Spoiler: the AI tournament selection is lacking.)

Funny I'm doing the same thing in GW3 but I can't help but at least jump in and do the occasional friendly match for my guys as I see them languishing. And you're right the AI tournament selection is occasionally downright hilariously bad.

I really appreciate the pace of GW1. I like being able to think about decisions that won't impact 3 weeks in an overnight.

Brian Swartz

06-13-2018, 07:49 PM

Since there's more interesting in RR1 right now, I thought I'd share this preview of coming attractions.

The Reaping

The long-awaited retirement to trainer duty of Anil Mehul is now just a matter of time. According to my calculations, he will be ready sometime between Paris and the World Tour Finals this year. I can confidently say that he'll get one more training in but not two, so his final trainer score looks like it will be 5.442.

At that point, I'm going to seriously skew the level of available talent in the game world. I've been saving up as many create player credits as I can for some time now: that's why I took somewhat disappointing players Chiba and Kasaravalli without trying again. I'm going to save up more by then by extending my VIP time to cover the entirety of my next player's career. Ritwik Dudwadkar will also be fired at the same time. The goal is take one final, best shot at getting a truly great player.

Mehul and Mooljee are tied for 7th in Slams, Mehul is 9th in prize money, Mooljee 8th in weeks at #1, but I've never had a really dominant player in the record books. Part of that is just timing. I think Dudwadkar was better than Mooljee, but he's been stuck in the era of Kaspar. Mehul battled against Antonin Iglar and was second-best almost the whole time. Mooljee, fitting in between, had three years at the top and may well have had a couple more if it wasn't for the rise of a dominant Kaspar. In any case, I'm hoping that with a number of shots at it I can create a player who is at least as good as my other best ones with better training to make them reach new heights; hopefully even with more potential than that, perhaps between there and a freak of nature like Kaspar or Gorritepe.

By firing Dudwadkar and moving Mehul to trainer at the same time, I'll create two open slots. By keeping one for the best player I get, I'll be able to ensure I don't actually cast off the wrong kid. Anybody who is interested in a new player around the end of this year should have some decent Sri Lanka options, with the con side of things being they'll still have to compete with whoever I end up keeping :).

Brian Swartz

06-16-2018, 01:52 PM

January

World Team Cup, Round 1

We get the United States right away, and #7 Tristan Allende did us a favor by not showing up. That meant fading Dick Blake as their second player, and we beat him twice. Lost doubles, knocking Mehul back out of the Top 200 and into futures land again in that discipline. That meant it was all up to Stuart Pargeter, #5 in the world and the top American player. We needed to beat him once to get a third win. Chiba failed on the first day in four sets, but Dudwadkar got him on Thursday, also in four.

Sri Lanka beats the United States 3-2, giving them a stranglehold on the group. It looks likely to come down to us against France once again this year.

Ritwik Dudwadkar then went on to win in Brisbane(250), barely getting by Brasher in the quarterfinals. Sushant Chiba lost to K. Kaspar 6-3, 6-4 in the Auckland semis, then won the title in Auckland. It was far from easy. A third-set tiebreak was close in the QFs against Ugljesa Svajnovic, then a blast from the past took him to three in the semis; WC Hsuang-tsung Teng. The final against Duncan wasn't actually much of a problem. Anil Mehul had a couple of first-round futures exits, though he did make a final in doubles, while Amrik Kasaravalli didn't play any competitive events over the first few weeks.

Christy

06-26-2018, 06:04 PM

Love this thread and had to join up for it. I have gone through a few youths in gw1 but will probably stick with my current two. Still takes a while to get going (which is what gw3 is for). Had some success there on clay with Arvizu but now have the ultra consistent Santa Claus (I did not name him) who makes quarter finals of masters/grand slams like a champ. Pity he has not won any of them yet but 15 masters qf and 7 slam qf and counting.

Hoping to match some of your guys in gw1 soon!

britrock88

07-02-2018, 12:13 PM

Just caught the end of (13) Chiba upsetting (5) Pargeter at the Rome Masters, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (5). Serving at 4-5 in the 3rd, Chiba went down 0-40, and Pargeter blew 4 straight match points. For the match, Pargeter converted break points at an incredible 2/26. That can happen when the mentality matchup is 2.8 to 4.4.

Brian Swartz

07-03-2018, 12:44 PM

Thanks for the comments. I bet that Pargeter match sucks even more given what happened at the end of the tournament! But yeah that had to be down to mentality, which is Chiba's greatest strength. Not so much for Stuart.

Brian Swartz

07-03-2018, 01:13 PM

Special Report: Embrace the Chaos

I was too busy to really spend the time on a ranking update after Q1, but given all the nonsense that's unfolded in the clay season(we'll get to that), I didn't want to wait till after Wimbledon. So let's take a look at the major action now as the tour prepares for Roland Garros(tomorrow and the next day).

Australian Open

Form totally held here, with Mateo Kaspar winning his 10th straight. For the fourth year in a row, it was Ritwik Dudwadkar opposing him in the final. I don't even know what to say anymore about the King winning this every season for a decade. He had to come from two sets down against the Black Prince in the semis, while Hamal Sbai reached his first Slam SF. (15) Kenneth Brasher and (14) Brian Meiklejohn were notable surprise quarterfinalists, although only by ranking in Meiklejohn's case. Soon he'll be a fixture.

Indian Wells

Stanley Edleman shows signs of life with a nice QF run. Meiklejohn made it there as well. The US gets a couple of semifinalists in Cordova and Pargeter(d. Dudwadkar in QFs), but both lost to the Kaspars. Karl Kaspar had a surprisingly easy straight-set win over the legendary Mateo, as he's making a serious push this year to throw off his shadow.

Miami

Skipping Masters events comes back to bite you. I think M. Kaspar was banned from this one due to last year's absences. Ritwik Dudwadkar was top-seeded, almost lost to Brasher in the quarters, and did lose to Stuart Pargeter in the semis. Hamal Sbai made the other semi, losing to the Black Prince. K. Kaspar takes a second straight Masters, and convincingly. He now has three for the career.

Clay Chaos

Ok so here's where it gets crazy. Almost nothing that's happened on the dirt makes any sense. I'll break this down into how the current(pre-RG) Top 10 has fared on the big clay events.

** Ritwik Dudwadkar -- Is back on top, barely, due to the failings of King Mateo. A week short of his 30th birthday and he's #1 again. Amazing. Skipped Monte Carlo, won the title in Madrid, and then lost in the first round of Rome to unseeded Irishman John Hart. How do you lose in the first round and get elevated to the top player in the world? Well, he had an early exit here last year(R3), and also ...

** Mateo Kaspar -- Skipped Monte Carlo, lost in the QFs of Madrid & Rome. That's consistent at least, and holds with the idea that on clay he's no longer elite at 31. That's making the large assumption that anyone is elite on clay these days. Unseeded Ali Kaihep and #7 Hugo Cordova beat him. Cordova is a strong clay player so that one makes sense.

** Karl Kaspar -- No Monte Carlo, second round at Madrid(Guadiana), first round at Rome(Meikeljohn). This is the guy who just pulled off the IW/Miami double and won Roland Garros last year for his maiden Slam title. Both losses were to credible clay players, but still.

** Hamal Sbai -- Won Monte Carlo, and Barcelona(500) the week after for good measure. Finalist in Madrid(l. Dudwadkar). Great so far. Then lost to Castegali in the third round of Rome. He's got the best clay resume so far, but still lost to a guy down in the teens.

** Stuart Pargeter -- Finalist in Monte Carlo, early loss in Barcelona, Madrid QF(l. Sbai), Rome R3(that epic collapse against Chiba).

** Gregory Mackenzie -- Monte Carlo QF, Madrid SF(l. Dudwadkar, winning ONE game), Rome F(l. Chiba, winning TWO games). Good results overall. Very good. But how do you fall on your face like that after getting that far??

** Hugo Cordova -- Monte Carlo SF, Madrid QF(close loss to Dudwadkar), Rome SF(3-setter to Chiba). Consistent at least, which is more than we can say for most. And the win over Kaspar is a big one.

** Gilberto Chinaglia -- Monte Carlo SF, Madrid R3(l. Kaihep), Rome R2(l. [b]Benjamin Abanades). I'm sorry, who again?? Remember two years ago that Chinaglia was RG champion.

** Tristan Allende -- Consistent at least. He hasn't gotten by the third round in any of them.

** Sushant Chiba -- Monte Carlo QF, R1 Madrid(l. Abanades), winner at Rome as 13-seed. Loses to an unknown in Madrid after winning there last year, dropping from him from as high as 9th to 14th. Then wins Rome the next week, getting back up to 10th.

So who wins RG? Pick almost anybody in the Top 20 and I'll be hard pressed to say you're wrong. Only Top 10 player who doesn't have a realistic chance is Allende. And then there's the others who have upset multiple player in this group in recent weeks. It's been a long time, if ever, since I've seen something this wide-open. I think both of my guys could potentially win. I think they could also potentially lose in round of 32.

Brian Swartz

07-12-2018, 12:48 AM

Q3 Rankings Update

1. Mateo Kaspar(31, FRA) - 12,230

Mateo made a quality run to the RG SF, then regained the top spot by taking the title at Wimbledon for his unprecedented 30th Slam title. 10th straight year in the final, but he's lost the last two to Dudwadkar. He lost one set each in each of the last three rounds, but never trailed in any of them. Most revealing stat I think is that he played seven tiebreaks in the fortnight ... and won six of them. Which is what champions do. And so the King's assault on history continues.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(30, SRI) - 11,370

Dudwadkar was up two sets to none on Karl Kaspar in the RG final ... and then fell apart, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 in the last three. It would have been his second title on the clay. A streak of two straight Wimby titles and four finals in a row was also broken by the Black Prince, in a compelling four-set semi that saw the first three sets go to tiebreaks. Ritwik won just one of them. After winning 17 of their first 18 meetings, Dudwadkar has last the last three in a row to the younger Kaspar. It's a trend. Here's a quirky fact though; he was still #1 until the end of Wimbledon, meaning that he's the first player I've ever seen to spend more time at the top ranking after his 30th birthday(7 weeks) than before it(3 weeks).

3. Karl Kaspar(25, FRA) - 10,400

After defending his RG title(having done basically nothing on clay going into it) and making the Wimbledon final, Karl is the de facto top challenger and part of a legit Big Three. I think he's probably year-end #2(having not looked at the numbers yet) behind the King and takes the top spot next season. It's taken a bit longer than expected but it's his time if he keeps performing like he has in the past month.

4. Hamal Sbai(27, MOR) - 7,225

Sbai has gradually strengthened his grip on the #4 spot, and it's now quite secure. QF at RG, SF at Wimbledon in a strong but unspectacular spring.

5. Stuart Pargeter(27, USA) - 5,370

Another spot that's pretty well locked down. Hard to see him moving in either direction, at least for the rest of this year. He's had too many early defeats to be a serious threat to those above him.

6. Gregory Mackenzie(29, USA) - 4,380

Starts to get a lot more fluid here.

7. Sushant Chiba(24, SRI) - 3,900

Made the fourth round at Roland Garros, where he'd won two tight breakers against Dudwadkar before giving up that lead. A four-set win over Pargeter at that same stage in Wimbledon is the biggest win to date of his career, and got him to a QF for the first time ... where he lost to his countryman once more, again in a tight four. He's close to becoming Sri Lanka's top player, but not quite there yet. The H2H is 6-0 against him. Still, that run on the prestigious grass has him in strong position to make the WTF and he'll also see more favorable draws the rest of the year, which should aid his ascent.

8. Gilberto Chinaglia(27, ITA) - 3,615

QF at Roland Garros, but otherwhise he's done basically nothing this year.

9. Tristan Allende(26, USA) - 3,610

10. Hugo Cordova(26, USA) - 3,605

It's closely packed here, and Blake is just a hundred points further back. 8-11 could very well switch places a lot in the coming months, and Mackenzie could also fall down into this group. Chiba and the Top 5 should be able to stay above this fray comfortably.

12. Brian Meikeljohn(22, IND)

The young Indian is several hundred points further back. He's inching upwards but may not make a serious run at the Top 10 until next year. He's on the other side of that scrum at the bottom of the first page. Fourth round at each of the last two slams, where he lost competitively to Sbai and K. Kaspar. If he gets a bit more favorable draw over the summer in a couple events, don't count out a quicker push. He's got the goods.

13. Chad Duncan(25, GBR)

Back up to his career high after slipping to 20th last year.

14. Veini Aikio(26, FIN)

He was close, up to 11th in the spring, but has faded a bit and might be on the downside now.

15. Kenneth Brasher(25, GBR)

Briefly made it to 10th earlier, but it was apparently a happy accident.

17. Ugljesa Svajnovic(24, CRO)

Up 10 spots already this year. He may not be around long, but he's making something of his opportunity here. And as I write this I notice he just claimed a 250 clay title, beating #10 Cordova in the final.

18. Ali Kaihep(26, ALG)

Who are all the great Algerian players you know?? Me neither. Kaihep was 34th at the start of the year. Safe to say he's the most-improved shoo-in right now.

19. John Hart(22, IRE)

The young ones just keep on coming. Hart is up from 35th. So maybe Kaihep isn't a sure thing.

20. Tomas Guadiana(25, ARG)

Gradual improvement here, from 25th.

21. Seamus Hughes(22, IRE)

Good to be a tennis fan in Ireland.

22. Stanley Edleman(24, USA)

Almost back to his career high.

26. Chalerm Prachuab(24, THA)

Fourth member of the Chiba class was 18th last year, so he's not doing so hot.

27. Benjamin Abanades(23, ESP)

Like Kaihep, he's made a name for himself with some big upsets. Up from 38th.

29. Mike Rhodes(22, PHI)

Seems like he's been around here forever, despite his youth.

31. Barry Molyneaux(22, USA)

Stop the presses; it's another good young American player.

32. Willy Bochette(23, FRA)

Make that five from the Chiba class. Moving up gradually.

93. Constantino Gonzoles(19, ARG)

Latest to make the Top 100 as a teen. Very good athleticism, elite mental game and crowd favorite. Long way to go but he's got a top-quality manager. I wouldn't bet against seeing him the Top 10. Looks to be possibly the next great clay-courter.

648. Anil Mehul(44, SRI)

267th doubles. More importantly he just finished his final skill training. Still looks like it'll be a little before the end of the year when he's ready to go trainer. I've decided to let him stick around to the WTC Final to head up our doubles efforts again, should we make it that far. The draw looks friendly for that to happen; France-USA is a brutal QF matchup on the other side of things.

9(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(18, SRI)

Well whaddya know. Kasaravalli was strong at the junior RG, aided by the fact that I increasingly favor clay proficiency in young players. He won the title in doubles, and made the SF in singles, losing to the lastest dominant junior Ollie Haas of the Netherlands. And then I forgot to enter him in Wimbledon, overlooking the fact that it occurs two weeks before the senior event. Still, he's having a strong year particularly by his standards, with four JG2 titles now bolstering his points. We'll see what happens in the big events the rest of the year but it certainly looks like he's ready to make the jump to the senior tour.

3. Manager Ranking -- 27.7k. I've held in the upper 20k range for several years now, and don't figure that to change until I start getting some production out of the new youngsters I'm going to acquire in the Reaping.

Brian Swartz

07-12-2018, 01:06 AM

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-Wimbledon Edition

In

Karl Kaspar - 7570
Mateo Kaspar - 7180
Ritwik Dudwadkar - 6070

Very interesting race here at the top. I don't see the Black Prince finishing the year at #1 but you can't dismiss his chances. There's holes in the resume of all three players, but most importantly he's still(theoretically) getting better while the other two are well in decline.

Probable

Hamal Sbai - 5645
Stuart Pargeter - 4320
Gregory Mackenzie - 3210
Sushant Chiba - 3190

Sbai is just a matter of time, certainly he'll be confirmed by the end of hardcourt swing. Pargeter could get a lot closer by playing some 250s(he's got a glut of 500 results), but figures to be in a strong position regardless as well. After that it gets more hazy. The last three spots will take some work to be claimed.

Contenders

Gilberto Chinaglia - 2775
------------------------------------
Hugo Cordova - 2580

Two players on the downside of their careers currently vie for the final spot.

Long Shots

Brian Meikeljohn - 2230
Chad Duncan - 2175
Kenneth Brasher - 1850
Dick Blake - 1810

Meikeljohn looks to be the only real threat here. He's got four quarterfinals in big events this season. If he adds a couple more, he'll probably be in the mix. It's a testament to how far #9 Tristan Allende has fallen that he doesn't even make this list.

thehitcat

07-12-2018, 07:56 AM

Q3 Rankings Update

4. Hamal Sbai(27, MOR) - 7,225

Sbai has gradually strengthened his grip on the #4 spot, and it's now quite secure. QF at RG, SF at Wimbledon in a strong but unspectacular spring.

18. Ali Kaihep(26, ALG)

Who are all the great Algerian players you know?? Me neither. Kaihep was 34th at the start of the year. Safe to say he's the most-improved shoo-in right now.

19. John Hart(22, IRE)

The young ones just keep on coming. Hart is up from 35th. So maybe Kaihep isn't a sure thing.

21. Seamus Hughes(22, IRE)

Good to be a tennis fan in Ireland.

All 4 of my players made your ranking list! That is ridiculously exciting for me. Also to add something of substance. Karl Kaspar is taking flight. If he's not number one by the end of the year he should at least be extremely close. Sbai and Pargeter his nearest chasers are both older than he is and the next younger player is Sushant and then at 12 Meikeljohn. He's stepping up to the throne for the forseeable future.

Brian Swartz

07-13-2018, 05:18 PM

Karl is doing well. My vote though is that Meikeljohn overtakes him sooner rather than later. He's primed to break through, wasn't too far behind Kaspar in the overall rankings at the beginning of the year, and of the 10 other players ahead of the Indian prodigy only Chiba is still improving. The rest are either at their peak at best, most past it … some significantly past it. It's been a strong era here but the ruling class is going to collapse very soon, and that will facilitate him moving up to around 5th or so much more quickly than would otherwhise be possible. Slam losses this year are to Sbai(twice, closer the second time) and K. Kaspar.

Thought I'd just throw in my .02 there, four players in or near the Top 20 is a heck of a thing, well done! Sri Lanka's only been able to field that many once, and briefly at that.

Brian Swartz

07-14-2018, 03:04 PM

August

The short break had a whole lot of nothing going on. Sushant Chiba did play at the Washington 500, where he lost in straight-sets in the final to an old 'friend', Stanley Edleman. Edleman beat #5 Pargeter in the semis, a fine showing for him that propels him to a career-high 19th. He has a 3-1 edge against Chiba, even though Sushant has clearly surpassed him at this point.

Kasaravalli and Dudwadkar were better suited to taking the time off.

Brian Swartz

07-16-2018, 02:26 PM

Canada

Not a great deal worth mentioning from the opening rounds; the top 8 players all made the quarterfinals here. It was rough in some cases, including a third-set tiebreaker separating Dudwadkar from Hugo Cordova. In the QFs, Stuart Pargeter lost to M. Kaspar, and Karl Kaspar was a surprising upset victim to Mackenzie … after having bageled the American in the first set. A stunning collapse there. Then another upset, as Ritwik Dudwadkar lost a close straight-sets affair to Chiba, his first defeat in seven matches between them. Sbai stopped Gilberto Chinaglia to wrap things up.

Gregory Mackenzie was easily dispatched by Kaspar in the semis, but the other favorite Hamal Sbai didn't fare as well. Sushant Chiba controlled the action and saved the only break chance against his serve in a 6-3, 6-4 win to make the final. He couldn't complete the run though, with Mateo Kaspar taking a 6-2, 7-6(5) title. 61 Masters Shields.

Brian Swartz

07-17-2018, 02:03 AM

Cincinatti

There was a little more action in the early rounds this time. Tristan Allende was a bit of a surprise entrant to the late rounds, taking out 6th-ranked Mackenzie, but it wasn't a shock by any means. He's capable, just hasn't done much lately. Then there as Brian Meikeljohn getting obliterated by Sbai 6-1, 6-1, and winning just 37% of his own service points. That just doesn't happen to top players, and it comes after him nearly beating King Kaspar last week. Something's weird with Meikeljohn, and one thing is the fact that he's fallen victim to Doubles Disease. Wrong-headed investment in that discipline is really sidetracking his progress, and if it continues his big future will be very much in question. Before all of that, Sushant Chiba lost a tight one to generational rival Charlerm Prachuab. It was Prachuab's first big win that I've noticed(7-6, 7-5). It would not be his last. For Chiba it may end up as blessing in disguise, giving him a chance to be more physically ready for the USO after playing a couple more matches than expected last week. I still wasn't thrilled with it though. He forced his opponent to serve a lot more points(96 to 66) and then played a bad tiebreak(7-1) along with a horrific display on BPs(lost both he faced, won just 1 of 7). Not what I expect from a mentally strong player … he can't be happy about such a performance.

Stuart Pargeter was knocked out in the last eight again, a close straight-sets match to M. Kaspar. Then Prachuab struck again, eliminating Hamal Sbai, 7-6(9), 6-2. Didn't see that one coming at all. Dudwadkar crushed Allende's hopes, and K. Kaspar did the same to Gilberto Chinaglia. So the top three and the Thai upstart moved on. Mateo Kaspar thumped him pretty easily in the first semi, then Ritwik Dudwadkar has 13 aces but the Black Prince still had enough to handle him 6-4, 7-6(5) in the second. Four straight now in that matchup. Karl Kaspar had the goods against Mateo for once, losing just 11 points on his serve to hold off the legend and claim his 4th Masters in an all-Kaspar final. It's just his fourth win against twenty losses there ... but Karl has won three of the last four. Definitely looks like thehitcat is right here. The Prince may well be on the verge of a promotion. As it is, he moves up to #2 past Dudwadkar heading into the US Open.

Brian Swartz

07-19-2018, 01:15 PM

Q3 Rankings Update

1. Karl Kaspar(25, FRA) - 12,260

The ascension came sooner than expected. By virtue of a straight-sets win over Mateo in the US Open final, the Black Prince has deposed King Kaspar. At least temporarily. Kaspar the elder did not play Shanghai, coming up in a little over a month, last season; and the gap is narrow. But let's let him have his moment in the sun at least. Karl has earned it, and now we'll see how long he can stay at the top.

2. Mateo Kaspar(31, FRA) - 12,030

Flushing Meadows showed that France truly rules the sport of tennis, at least for right now. It's hard to imagine anyone else as WTC champs. It looks like Mateo, the standard by which all future greats will be judged, is mostly done adding to his legacy. He'll still have his moments I'm sure, but with four out of the last five matches going the way of the younger Kaspar, the torch appears to have been passed ... even though on paper Mateo is actually still a hair better.

3. Ritwik Dudwadkar(30, SRI) - 9,290

Just a few months ago, Dudwadkar occupied the top spot. Now he's no longer within shouting distance of it after a stunning fourth-round loss to Brasher; 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-7(2), 2-6, 6-3. Nearly came back and won it, and played more than well enough to win, but went 3 of 17 on BPs. The upstart Brit went on to make the semifinals, and Ritwik will be a little easier to fire at the end of the season now that his days as a contender appear to be over.

4. Hamal Sbai(27, MOR) - 7,405

Another upset at the hands of Chiba, five sets in the USO quarterfinals, is not what the doctor ordered here. Sbai still has a chance to push a bit further up with two over-30 players ahead of him, but for the moment he's staying solidly where he is.

5. Stuart Pargeter(28, USA) - 5,640

Stuart had a competitive straight-sets loss to the eventual champ at the USO, equalling his best result there in the QF round. Like Sbai he's pretty much treading water ... but it looks like he's about to slip a position.

6. Sushant Chiba(24, SRI) - 5,160

Chiba is on the move. After beating Sbai he gave M. Kaspar all he wanted to handle for the first three sets of their semifinal, before running out of gas and losing in four. He's reached the point where he's a legitimate threat to anyone in the world, and while I don't see him catching Prince Karl anytime soon, he is a year and a half younger and could well be ahead of anyone else a year from now. For the moment he's steadily moving up, working his way into position to break into the Top 4. Hard to see that happening before next year.

7. Gregory Mackenzie(29, USA) - 4,230

This is where the next break starts; the declining Mackenize is atop a heap of relatively interchangeable players.

8. Gilberto Chinaglia(27, ITA) - 3,695

9. Hugo Cordova(26, USA) - 3,430

10. Tristan Allende(26, USA) - 3,160

Mackenzie and Allende in particular did not do as well in front of their home crowd as they did a season ago.

11. Kenneth Brasher(25, GBR)

A shocking run to the USO semis has Kenneth overachieveing again.

12. Brian Meikeljohn(22, IND)

The gifted Meikeljohn has clearly 'gone doubles', leaving open the question of who will be the next #1 after the Black Prince's reign ends. He was a shoo-in for the spot, but no longer. Due to the uniqueness of his physical gifts and being from India, I was looking forward to him being a challenger. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that will materialize now.

13. Chad Duncan(26, GBR)

15. John Hart(22, IRE)

What we lose in the Indian prodigy would appear to be for the gain of others, such as this guy.

16. Stanley Edleman(24, USA)

Could well be headed towards the Top 10 yet. An important jump for him this year.

17. Ugljesa Svajnovic(24, CRO)

18. Ali Kaihep(26, ALG)

The teens remain packed with promising and improving players.

20. Veini Aikio(26, FIN)

Now just past his prime, Aikio's time in the sun appears to be over. He got close to the top page, but peaked at 11th.

21. Seamus Hughes(23, IRE)

22. Tomas Guadiana(25, ARG)

23. Charlerm Prachuab(24, THA)

24. Mike Rhodes(22, PHI)

27. Benjamin Abanades(23, ESP)

29. Jacek Andrejova(24, CZE)

30. Harald Balzer(21, SWE)

The latest young addition, Balzer was 62nd at the start of the year.

32. Livio Kaspar(26, FRA)

The trend of lots of up-and-comers continues. Far more improving than declining. I expect soon we'll reach critical mass and the majority of the current Top 10 will crumble and be replaced.

616. Anil Mehul(44, SRI)

Closing in on 4k points to go. In game terms, he's got about three months left in his playing career.

7(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(18, SRI)

Kasaravalli has really surprised with a strong last junior year. He made his second slam SF in singles at the USO, losing a close two-setter to #2 Il-sung Junb(KOR). He also won doubles for the second time.

Brian Swartz

07-19-2018, 01:28 PM

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-USO Standings

In

Karl Kaspar - 10,750
Mateo Kaspar - 9,980
Ritwik Dudwadkar - 6,790
Hamal Sbai - 6,745

Dudwadkar slips to a distant third -- and Sbai could well take that from him by year's end. Meanwhile the top spot is very much up for grabs. House Kaspar will fit it out amongst themselves.

Probable

Stuart Pargeter - 5040
Sushant Chiba - 4670
Gregory Mackenzie - 3960
Gilberto Chinaglia - 3315

Pargeter and Chiba should be locks by the end of the Shanghai Masters. Mackenzie is also looking very strong to grind out a spot. Chinaglia now has the edge for the final one ... but he's far from safe.

Contenders

Long Shots

Hugo Cordova - 3045
Kenneth Brasher - 2820
Brian Meikeljohn - 2500
Chad Duncan - 2400
Tristan Allende - 2330

Cordova really needed to not bow out in the third round of his home Slam. Now he's on the outside looking in. Brasher's first Slam semi has forced him into relevance as a long-shot candidate, while Meikeljohn also lost early at the USO and is now facing a bigger mountain. Nobody here inspires me with confidence that they will make a run at it.

Brian Swartz

07-21-2018, 02:12 PM

Just noticed this logjam in the rankings. It's early October at the moment, week 40, with the WTC SF round underway.

15. John Hart - 2300
16. Stanley Edleman - 2225
17. Ugljesa Svajnovic - 2195
18. Ali Kaihep - 2170
19. Seamus Hughes - 2155
20. Tomas Guadiana - 2140
21. Veini Aikio - 2130
22. Cristian Castelgali - 2100

Aikio and Castelgali probably drop from this group soon; they're on the far side of their peak, while the others are still improving. Still, that's eight players in a 200-point span … and who ends up on top of this is important, with the first two in this range getting better draws at the big events.

Christy

07-21-2018, 07:18 PM

So in GW1 I am happy with Perez taking a junior major. Aas is still growing slowly but I always find challenger level difficult to navigate. Always tough to tell in advance which ones are going to have high ranked players. Sometimes CH2s are easier than CH3s. Nearly, there, just need to reach the point where beats all challenger level players anyway I suppose.

I should also report a major point in gw3.

Dustov, a future no.1 has recently won in Miami. Why is this a big deal? Globenko and Balerio between them have won the last 5 wtfs, 9 slams and before Miami the last 28 majors! The fact that one of my own players spent a good chunk of time at no. 3 and was prevented from getting any major titles does not leave me at all bitter!

I think the faster game world is helping me a lot. I feel like it is currently driving home the importance of mentality since I have little of it and am frequently beaten when I generate far more break points. So hard to win if you don't get those points and it seems to have a massive effect on those points.

Brian Swartz

07-23-2018, 01:28 AM

I've estimated mentality to be roughly equal to speed and strength(a hair more important than speed, a little less then strength). It definitely makes a noticeable impact, but even top-mentality players will have matches they lose in that way. A great player with high mentality though does seem to be a true fortress, because even when you get chances against them they manage to squeeze out most of the time.

October

World Team Cup

The quarterfinals matched Sri Lanka against Argentina, on clay. Guadiana is solid player, and Fabrizio Abinati is a rising talent just reaching the age of 22. They blanked us in doubles but that was their only win; took a set each in a couple of singles matches but we had the quality to see them off 4-1. In the semis, it was Great Britain. Just stop and ponder that for a moment. Great Britian is in the WTC semifinals. That's something to celebrate all on it's own. In Brasher and Duncan they have the 11th and 12th singles players in the world, so they are a significant threat. We beat them 5-0, but that's not really fair. Chad Duncan pushed Dudwadkar to five sets in the opening match, winning the first before eventually going down 6-3 in the last. Doubles were even closer, with Mehul/Kansai eventually prevailing 3-6, 6-4, 6-1, 2-6, 8-6 in a pretty epic affair. The other three went our way in straight sets, but the Brits definitely deserved to take at least one rubber. Instead it's a 5-0 skunking.

In the final we'll face France(who else). On an Indoor court, which is unusual. I'd love to send Mehul out on top, but going against the top two players in the world on a surface that favors them? The odds are definitely not in our favor. I'd bet heavily on the French in this one, either 3-2 or 4-1 with doubles our best shot at a point, quite possibly stealing one against one of the Kaspars also. It could be close, but I think we have enough to narrowly retain the top spot in the rankings even if we lose.

Amrik Kasaravalli was ousted in the QFs of singles and doubles in the Osaka Mayors Cup(JGA), a solid but unspectacular showing. He took #2 Jung to a tough match again, pushing him to three, but the young Korean dominated the final stanza to get the win. A super-TB loss in doubles was a tough one as well. As for Anil Mehul, as Shanghai arrives he's less than 3000 points away from retirement now. Looks like he's literally going to get there probably the week of the WTC Final. A great way to go out for him, win or lose. In China, all eyes are on the Kaspars. It's expected that Mateo will regain the #1 spot there, though who knows for how long. He didn't play their last season, while Karl was the victor, and less than 200 points currently separate the two in the rankings. It's a pivotal moment in determining who ends this year on top.

Christy

07-24-2018, 06:55 AM

Very possible I notice it more as it is my player coming up short (and he does reach later rounds consistently). Plus break points are not always a fair measure given low mentality players will end up with more (think of being 0-40 up, a high mentality player will likely get 1 break point and 1 break while a low mentality player could easily end up with 3 or more in spite of both players engineering the same advantage). Will keep an eye on it.

Good luck on the finals. It will be said to see Anil have his last international after all that time. Any idea what his international record is?

Brian Swartz

07-24-2018, 03:43 PM

I'll answer that when we get there. I'm planning to do a tribute post to recap his career, I figure he deserves it.

Shanghai Masters

One upset in the early rounds, with unseeded Ugljesa Svajnovic joining the top seven in the quarterfinals; a close two-set win over #8 Chinaglia got him there. Not a great draw for Sushant Chiba, who ran into K. Kaspar at that point, suffering his 10th defeat in 11 meetings 6-4, 6-2, and one of the more lopsided of the series. Stuart Pargeter lost a close one to Sbai, Gregory Mackenzie was dismissed by the 'other' Kaspar, and Svajnovic was handed a pair of breadsticks to chew on by Dudwadkar. On we go.

Top four then in the semis, and Hamal Sbai was Karl's equal for two sets, then faded in the third. On the other side, Mateo Kaspar was upset by Dudwadkar 7-5, 7-6(2), which combined with Mateo not defending a 500 title last week means he won't get back to #1 if the younger Kaspar takes the title. Ritwik Dudwadkar tried to play spoiler again, but for the second match in a row Karl 'No longer a Prince' Kaspar dominated the final set, 4-6, 7-5, 6-1. He stays on top and now I have to find a new nickname for him, because it looks quite likely that he won't be removed for quite a while. One reason for that is Mateo has switched to doubles. Too early IMO; combined with the Masters events he's missed the last couple years, he's really missed out on a chance to further cement his legacy. To my mind, if you're a living legend and the clear #1 in the record books you have to keep setting that bar as high as possible as long as you are still a threat in the big events. That's really the only criticism I can make of hugoboy as a manager though.

I'm skipping the RACE rundown since it seems very unlikey to change over the last month. I'll be surprised if the Top 8 don't finish in the same order they are in now:

1. K. Kaspar
2. M. Kaspar
3. Dudwadkar
4. Sbai
5. Pargeter
6. Chiba
7. Mackenzie
8. Chinaglia

Izulde

07-24-2018, 06:44 PM

Karl Ballkiller of the House Kaspar, First of His Name, the Unblemished, King of the Courts and the Tennis Men, Winner of Wimbeldon, Breaker of Bryans, and Father of More Kaspars

Brian Swartz

07-25-2018, 01:14 AM

I should type out that entire thing every.single.time I mention his name from now on, just to spite you.

But I won't.

Izulde

07-25-2018, 03:27 AM

I should type out that entire thing every.single.time I mention his name from now on, just to spite you.

But I won't.

Could always hotkey the text to put in with a button press. :p

Brian Swartz

07-27-2018, 03:30 PM

Paris Masters

If you needed confirmation that the current Top 8 are the correct ones, you got it as all of them made the quarterfinals, shutting out all the dreamers. Sushant Chiba faced Karl K again, and gave him a tough set before folding 7-6(5), 6-1. Stuart Pargeter was dismissed easily by Dudwadkar, Gilberto Chinaglia gave the deposed legend Mateo a battle before passing on 7-5, 6-4, and it was the flip of that score as Sbai eliminated Gregory Mackenzie. All the favorites advance again. ZZZZZZzzzzzzz.

The close to the tournament was quite competitive though. Ritwik Dudwadkar nearly derailed the KK train, 6-4, 7-6(5). Strong showing by him here, even if he did end his run a match before the final. Hamal Sbai took the first set against Mateo Kaspar before falling 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. And then #1 Karl Kaspar stumpled, with 32-year-old Mateo taking his 62nd Masters, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4. The gap at the top still increases as Karl was out in the semis here a year ago, but a nice run by the former King who adds yet one more trophy to his records.

Brian Swartz

07-30-2018, 05:28 PM

World Tour Finals

Didn't, uh, go so well for my guys. I don't think I've ever had two players involved and neither make it past group stage, but that's what happened here. Dudwadkar and Chiba each won a single match. M. Kaspar and Pargeter each had two wins in the first group, while K. Kaspar was unbeaten and Sbai won the tiebreaker in the second group, a ring around the rosy as he beat Chiba and lost to Chinaglia who also lost to Chiba so all three had one win.

In the semifinals, Stuart Pargeter put up a brave fight before losing to Karl 7-5, 7-5, while Mateo dismissed Hamal Sbai much more easily. That mean an all-Kaspar final, in which Karl Kaspar solidified his grip on the #1 and snagged his first WTF title, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.

Coming Up …

I should also mention that Amrik Kasaravalli played his first amateur a couple weeks back, making the final before losing to one of those all-skill, no-serve guys. He's got a couple more junior events before making the jump. The WTC final, Mehul's last competition, is coming up in a couple of weeks and then the end-of-year stuff. I'm still going the make him a trainer after that's over … no point in waiting and he's still on target to be ready that week. I've decided that in order to optimize my new players though(hopefully), I'm going to wait until a few months into the new year for the Reaping. That will also give me time to do a synopsis of his career, and I want to put together a comprehensive strategy guide as a legacy type of thing. So all that will be gradually coming out over the next couple of real-life weeks.

Brian Swartz

07-31-2018, 01:29 PM

WTC Finals

Our uphill battle against France was ultimately a failure. Sushant Chiba gave Karl Kaspar a royal fight before succumbing on Monday, 6-4, 4-6, 2-6, 6-2, 6-4. That was our best chance. Then Ritwik Dudwadkar lost to Mateo Kaspar, 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(4). Doubles saw Mehul/Cansai take a set off Ardant/Gravier, but they still went down to defeat 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5.

There are two more to play but they will be irrelevant to the outcome; France is world champion this year. It's their third title in four years; we beat them in the final last season but aside from that nobody has been able to stop the Kaspar train.

Also, Anil Mehul's career officially came to an end, as that doubles match put him over the top for the required xp and he was converted to a trainer shortly after it finished. I expected a high 5.4 grade, but I was wrong; he comes in at 5.5. That's a nice surprise, and it's cool to finally see it officially. Among the special reports upcoming will be a little feature on how much of a difference he will make as a supertrainer once I have an opportunity to test it out.

thehitcat

07-31-2018, 01:39 PM

Anil, the man who brought me to the game (with Brian's help of course.) He may not be the very best player who played in his time but following his career was the ultimate page turner. Thank you for bringing him to life and then bringing him to us Brian.

Brian Swartz

08-02-2018, 02:47 AM

You're very welcome - glad you've enjoyed it(and joined the game as well)!

Final 2060 Nation Rankings

1. Sri Lanka - 2603
2. France - 2550
3. United States - 2321
4. Argentina - 2154
5. Spain - 1939
6. Croatia - 1934
7. Chile - 1915
8. Italy - 1911
9. Sweden - 1902
10. Thailand - 1896

France went on to close out a humiliating 5-0 skunking of us in the WTC Final; Chiba won another set against M. Kaspar, while Dudwadkar endured a second straight close 3-set loss. More evidence that he's no longer our best player, and I can't remember the last time we were shut out. We do retain the top spot, as we have for about 15 years now. It's an unprecedented run that is about to come to an end. Hard to envisage a scenario in which France does not take the top spot from us next year. It's a short-term sacrifice made to usher in a final run that will probably, and hopefully, be our most dominant stretch yet. Also, France is just that good right now thanks to House Kaspar.

Next year, we're in Group 4 along with Italy(8th), Morocco(15th), and Mexico(17th). On paper that's a cake draw. Italy made the SF this past year(losing to France), but both of their top players are declining and only #8 Gilberto Chinaglia is even worth being worried about. Morocco of course boast the best player in the world on paper(but not on the court, sadly) in #4 Hamal Sbai … but they were relegated to having to survive in a playoff. That's basically because Sbai has no help; they lost all their group ties 3-2. Mexico has the aging #15 Cristian Castelgali and that's about it there. It shouldn't be any problem getting through unscathed, even with the retirement from active play of Mehul crippling what semblance of a doubles presence we had.

WTC Playoffs

Speaking of the playoffs, here's how the matchups shook out:

** Russia(16th) 4, Germany(12th) 1. This was a trend this year; the higher-ranking paper tiger going down to the superior lower-ranking nation. No household names for the Russians, but they do have a pair of Top-50 singles players. The Germans no longer have any. They promoted up from Level 2 last year but now they go right back down, with no tie closer than 4-1. They really didn't compete.

** Morocco(15th) 4, China(35th) 1. China did very well to get here; two years ago they were a Level 3 nation. It was a big mismatch, and they really have no realistic aim of being in the top level.

** Thailand(10th) 4, Netherlands(23rd) 1. It's been two years since the Netherlands won a Level 1 tie. Last year they escaped relegation at Finland's expense. No such luck this season, and an overdue breakthrough for Thailand after narrow 3-2 defeats in promotion attempts against Finland and Mexico the past two years. #21 Chalerm Prachuab is known already, and #45 Nintau Ariyanuntaka is on the rise as well. My guess is they stay up for the next few years and continue to gradually improve their status.

** India(11th) 5, Sweden(9th) 0. Bad luck for Sweden, who lost by the same score to the same nation in both the Level 2 semis and the playoff. They'll probably be back for another attempt at getting up next year. 11th-ranked Brian Meikeljohn powers the India effort in both singles and doubles, able to get them by most nations almost singlehandedly. But then there's Satyajit Gavaskar, just recently turned 22, and also just recently into the Top 50. It looks like they, similarly to Thailand, are primed for an extended stay in the top tier. Both nations will very much bear watching.

Brian Swartz

08-02-2018, 03:20 PM

Three Decades Between the Lines
The Career of Anil Mehul

Anil Mehul's defines Sri Lanka tennis achievement. When he arrived, we were nothing, the lowest of the low. In fact, this dynasty did not even exist. I began posting it over three years ago IRL, and 22+ in game terms(2038). That was back during the Gorritepe regime, an era long-since forgotten. It seemed best to me to recount his fortunes and the nations' together, because they are intertwined. His story is our story.

Mehul made no real waves as a junior. His highest rank was 15th, keeping him well off the radar. Of course at this time I was still in the early stages of working out my strategy, and some of my scheduling decisions were not the best.

There's a limit to how far the records for the WTC go back. I think it's set at 40 years, which at this point is just over half the tour's lifetime. Sri Lanka had some early, minimal participation in the World Team Cup during the infancy of the tour but had not been involved for decades. That changed in 2037, when Mehul and Amrik Chittoor, a surprisingly good 'naturally' generated player who would eventually make a brief foray into the Top 50 in his own right, reached sufficient heights to get the nation back in the fray. Both players were just out of their teens, but that didn't stop them from spearheading a strong march through the Level 4 tier. Nobody won more than a single rubber against them. Ecuador, Lithuania, and Egypt all fell 4-1 in the knockout rounds, then Lithuania again by the same score in the knockout rounds. Meanwhile Mehul reached the Top 100 for the first time. By the time the WTC Playoff rolled around at the end of the year, he was up to 80th.

In 2038 we met our first serious obstacle, in the form of Austria and Julian Hammerstein, a massively powerful player physically who crushes us in both singles encounters en route to a 3-2 defeat in the Level 3 semifinals. That was just enough to get us into the promotion playoffs though, where we easily beat Nigeria 4-1. Both us and Austria moved up, while Mehul's years of struggling in the low double digits were at an end. He finished the year at 37th, already a national record.

** 2039: we won our group again easily, and were cast aside 4-1 once again by Austria, this time in the quarterfinals so the ascent was stalled. We'd have to remain in Level 2 at least one more year. Hammerstein and Mehul were 16th and 15th, both clearly on their way to bigger and better things ... especially the former.

** 2040 began with an impressive run punctuated by a 7-5 fifth-set win over #4 Perry Hogue to the AO semifinals, where Mehul was beaten by one Antonin Iglar, who had won the US Open the previous fall. He was only seeded 5th here, but by year's end he would be #1 and would stay there for quite a while. Anil's solo career would, of course, long be defined by his matchups with the Czech great. In the WTC, a bad showing by Chitoor led to a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Slovak Republic in the final round of group play, but we still advanced to the knockout rounds. There we performed much better, losing just a single rubber in winning the Level 2 title. The main reason for this was the arrival of my second created player, Girish Girsh. By the end of the season, Mehul was 7th in the world, Girsh in the Top 50, and Peru was brushed aside 4-1 in the promotion playoff. Sri Lanka had arrived at the top tier.

** 2041 saw Mehul rise to #2, just ahead of deposed champ Bjorn Benda of Germany, and well behind Iglar. He was nearing his prime, and would settle in there for quite some time. Girsh was #11, three years younger at 23. And yet the WTC was not kind to us. A 3-2 loss to Spain's 'dual Davids' -- Almagro(3rd) and Alvarez(6th) were still among the world's best -- followed a 3-2 defeat to the Czech republic. In that one, Mehul suffered a rare WTC blemish, losing in five to Iglar after leading 2 sets to 1 ... all by tiebreak. We won the doubles, but with #10 Cestmir Marcek the other Czech player, we could make no inroads against them. Two of the elite in our group was just terrible luck.

** The next year I had occasion to hate the scheduling algorithm again, though for different reasons. Germany played spoiler behind Benda, still the best player in the world on clay. All three knockout rounds they had the dirt in their favor, leading to 3-2 wins over the Czech Republic(semis) and in the final(us).

** Another 3-2 loss to the Germans on clay followed in 2043, this time in the quarterfinals. I was not amused. Overall we were better than them by now(Girsh was up to #5 and we were at worst the equal of anyone), but the deck was stacked against us. Meanwhile Mehul surged just past Iglar with a strong finish to the season, finishing #1 by virtue of a 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-4 win in the World Tour Finals. It was a truly storybook ending to the season in that sense.

** Iglar struck back on both fronts in '44, as the Czech Republic narrowly beat us 3-2 in the WTC Final, while the Czech dominated the singles scene to take back the #1 spot. By more than 5000 points. Particularly annoying was his opening-day comeback victory in the WTC, where Girsh held a two-set lead but couldn't close.

** 2045 began a golden era for Sri Lanka in the World Team Cup, the likes of which have never been seen before. The next four years we won the world championship(the United States had previously won three in a row, as had Spain), and eight out of the next ten(Spain had done 7 in a decade before). So on both counts we were just ahead of history. The Czechs were the next to interrupt it, with Tomas Niklas defeating Girsh 9-7 in the 5th on the final day for a 3-2 semifinal count in '49. Three years later, with Mehul now a doubles player past his prime, we had only #2 Prakash Mooljee among the elite and an indoor match Germany tripped us up. Again it was 3-2 in the semis, and again we bounced back with the rise of Dudwadkar to win the next two. All in all, there was a 12-year period(from '45 to '56) in which we never failed to be crowned in consecutive years. Only the rise of France's Kaspars ended that streak.

** Mehul was the top singles player for that first title, then surpassed as he started to decline the next year and Girsh became our best. He actually wasn't on the final team at all for he fourth one in '48, as he was making the transition to doubles. He would be back though for the '50 return to glory, spearheading our doubles team then and for more than a decade afterwards. Two years later, at 33 he was one of the most accomplished doubles players in the world(ranked 3rd). He would remain at that level for a couple seasons, making #1 for a brief time, but once again the hands of time came for him and by his late 30s he could no longer be a significant player even in that discipline and long-time partner Lars Kroese sensibly moved on.

** Grand Slams - 8 singles titles(T-7th all-time), 4 doubles.
** World Tour Finals - 3x winner(singles)
** Masters - 8 singles titles, 8 doubles
** 500 - 7 singles titles, 1 doubles
** 250 - 10 singles titles, 1 doubles

** Total Win/Loss - 1351-365(.787 pct) singles, 567-261(.685 pct) doubles.

** WTC Record(as requested) - 118-10(.922 pct) singles, 42-43(.494 pct) doubles

Analysis

Antonin Iglar in his generation, along with several others, rank above Anil Mehul in the historical record. He's a third-tier all-time great, someone on the very periphery of the conversation when you are talking about the best ever. 1st tier(Kaspar/Gorritepe), 2nd tier(Sullivan/Prieto/Iglar/Horesign), and then a big group of players on which he is just one. Anil does rank as the clear #1 on the Sri Lanka legends list. It's not a huge list of players who have been #1 in singles and doubles, but it's not exceptionally rare either. 9th on the all-time money-list, T-7th in Slam victories, though he didn't win as many Masters as one would expect; half of his eight in that one brilliant year when he unseated Iglar. Total weeks at #1 is just over a year at 60.

Where Anil really stands out is in legacy and longevity. Nobody has ever done as much for their nation has he has. The WTC numbers are sort of a microcosm; the singles record is quite sparkling, doubles not so much, but the most impressive thing is the volume. He played in 20 years worth of ties over 24 seasons with a couple of brief breaks in there. Qualifying for a top nation for that long made him almost as reliable as death and taxes. He also holds three age-related records, which is more than any other player save Martin Prieto, who played in the early, pre-form days. Oldest singles winner of Masters event(32y 20w), oldest Olympics gold medalist in doubles(38y 19w), and oldest WTC doubles champion(43y 37w). Ultimately it's now how high Mehul's peak was, but how long he just kept coming back, year after year, that sticks with you. This last year he was 1-5 in doubles appearances, and the one win barely in five sets. But there was never any question that he was still the best we had, and as long as that was the case he would still be there each time.

More than any of my other players, he really appeared to have the heart of a champion. In the battles with Iglar(17-36 overall), he won more than he had a right to given the gap between the players in athleticism particularly, even while still being clearly inferior in the big picture. He just kept coming, and rarely lost a match in which he was a clear favorite. The other players have been more of a mixed bag, with Girsh somewhat of an underachiever and Mooljee/Dudwadkar having periods of excellence and periods of disappointment. Anil was a consummate professional 9 times out of 10 or more, making him the ideal figurehead as he moves into the trainer phase.

Brian Swartz

08-03-2018, 01:00 AM

Just one thing to add-on; another disadvantage overcome by Mehul that I meant to include is the fact that I didn't know what I was doing as much with him. Scheduling, the best way to get through certain chokepoints like the Challenger level, etc. are something I learned more about with time. He suffered a bit by being my guinea pig.

Brian Swartz

08-03-2018, 03:04 AM

2061 Player Rankings

1. Karl Kaspar(26, FRA) - 13,650

How long Karl remains on top is a subject for discussion and reasonable debate. What is sure though is that over the second half of last year he seized control of the tour, particularly with titles at the US Open, Roland Garros, and the World Tour Finals. A stellar 84-6 overall record was far better than the previous year in which he fell to defeat 14 times. Clearly it is his time now. I think I like the 'First of His Name' nickname the best.

2. Mateo Kaspar(32, FRA) - 11,990

All good things must come to an end eventually. I think Mateo will get in a blow every now and then, but now that he's gone doubles he'll probably decline significantly over the next year until he maxes that out. He's still a threat to anyone unless it's a clay match; but the reign of King Kaspar is over. What a reign it was, a thing that may well never be matched or even approached.

3. Ritwik Dudwadkar(30, SRI) - 8,350

As Karl ascended, Dudwadkar declined. He really hit the wall the second half of last year. If I wasn't about to fire him soon I'd say he had a chance at a bit of renaissance this year, but it's time for Ritwik to say good-bye to being a real challenger just six months after briefly holding the #1 ranking again. The overall mark of 70-17 was his worst in five seasons.

4. Hamal Sbai(27, MOR) - 7,165

Still somewhat of an underachiever, Sbai isn't going anywhere just yet and could move up a spot or even two depending on how quickly the aging players above him fade. He's got the ability to depose Karl, but has shown no sign of playing at the required level consistently.

5. Stuart Pargeter(28, USA) - 5,600

Stuart's held steady here for the last year or two, and is seemingly no threat to fall apart or rise significantly. He had more than his share of frustrations during his early prime, but Pargeter has become the clear #1 American and that's no small feat.

6. Sushant Chiba(24, SRI) - 5,230

Chiba's won a single clay Masters two years running(Madrid two years ago, Rome this past year). QF at Wimbledon and SF at the USO broke him out of a pattern of uninspiring Slam performances, and if he continues that level of play he will find himself pushing further upwards.

7. Gregory Mackenzie(29, USA) - 4,840

A consistent veteran who presently occupies the 'best of the rest' spot based on his experience.

8. Gilberto Chinaglia(28, ITA) - 3,815

Chinaglia eventually made his third, and probably last, WTF finals showing this season. The former #4 has no real hope of reattaining those heights.

9. Hugo Cordova(26, USA) - 3,390

Hugo is a meteoric player and despite not being particularly old, he's already definitely over the hill. He's reached as high as 7th but never made the Tour Finals. Weirdly, the only Slam he's never reached the second week of is the one in Flushing Meadows. Third-round exits in his last three Slams suggest his best days may be gone now.

10. Kenneth Brasher(25, GBR) - 3,080

The second-youngest player in the Top 10 is also just the third British player to reach these heights; and both of the other two are collecting their pensions.

11. Brian Meikeljohn(22, IND)

Meikeljohn led India through the WTC playoffs with excellence, and it looks like he may have stopped pushing the doubles angle. We'll see, but even if so a lot of damage has already been done. He's still plenty good enough to push his way onto the first page though.

12. Chad Duncan(26, GBR)

The 'other' Brit is up well from 20th, though I'm not sure he goes much further.

13. Tristan Allende(26, USA)

Much potential, but ultimately a disappointment. Clearly on his way out now.

14. John Hart(23, IRE)

Hart is the surprise player of the year. I don't even know what his ranking was last season, but it's clear he will be seen a lot more this campaign - and will not be safely ignored.

15. Stanley Edleman(24, USA)

You knew it was coming eventually. Edleman stirred the pot in the mid-20s for multiple years, and is now making his play to see what the former dominant junior can do as a pro.

16. Ali Kaihep(16, ALG)

Already the highest-ranking Algerian in singles ever by a long ways, Kaihep made the semis in Madrid but didn't do a whole lot else in the big events. We'll see what he can do with better seeding.

17. Seamus Hughes(23, IRE)

Oh look, another young Irish player that I didn't report on last year and who is now making me look stupid.

19. Ugljesa Svajnovic(24, CRO)

27th last year. I said 'He should be at least Top 20, perhaps more'. I'm not often that dead-on, but I'll take it. Thanks for making me look good on at least one call.

20. Chalerm Prachuab(24, THA)

Actually down a couple spots from 18th, so might be treading water now.

21. Mike Rhodes(22, PHI)

Won a few 250s last year but still mostly Challengers on the resume. Didn't play a single slam, one Masters and 2 500s(going 1-3 in them). When is Mike going to grow up? He was 32nd a year ago though, so something he did worked.

23. Jacek Andrejova(24, CZE)

Up 8 spots and his schedule was at least arguable, with a lot of 250 success. Still, it'll be good to see him take a step up in competiton.

26. Benjamin Abanades(24, ESP)

About to become the top Spaniard over Cortina(25th), a thing that was once a prestigious distinction. Made the SF in Rome but had a very unspectacular resume elsewhere. Let's see if he grows more consistent.

27. Tomas Guadiana(25, ARG)

Another young player stuck in neutral, it seems.

28. Valery Stachovsky(22, RUS)

Say hello to Russia's next hope. Played mostly Challengers until late in the year, when he won St. Petersburg(250) and the Kremlin Cup(250). Both on home soil, it must be said. Young, unproven, definitely interesting and new.

31. Livio Kaspar(26, FRA)

Doesn't look like he'll amount to much, certainly not by Kaspar standards.

32. Cheng-ho Geng(25, USA)

An American name if ever I've seen one ... notably won three CH+ events in dominating that level, and runner-up in Kremlin Cup to Stachovsky.

Five players who are not yet 24, and six who are. The youth movement continues.

2037. Amrik Kasaravalli(18, SRI)

Welcome to the professional tour, AK - nah, not gonna go there. Finished last year 8th in juniors, which is more than I expected of him esp. considering he missed one of the Slam events. It'll be interesting how he compares to the benchmarks for getting through futures and challengers the next few seasons with his relatively low endurance and the adjusted training plan.

Brian Swartz

08-03-2018, 04:31 AM

2061 Preview

** Aside: It feels really weird to only have three active players right now. And not to have a certain guy on that list.

1. Karl Kaspar(93%, 8.57, +0.07)

His second-half surge was fueled by just playing better more than anything else, though Karl did improve his serve this year. He's far from a dominant force, well below the peak of Dudwadkar never mind the elder Mateo, and definitely not the current best player on paper. Suffice to say, I'm not sold on him staying at the top for years to come. But, the First of His Name is there now, and still has at least another year of potential improvement.

2. Mateo Kaspar(79%, 8.55, -0.23)

While it hurts him in singles, the doubles focus could well make France stupid-dominant in the WTC for a while. His skills there are half-complete, but he hasn't played much. I expect he'll be on the national team in pairs by year's end. It's also easily seen that all he'd have to do is go on a hot streak at this point to knock Karl from that perch of his.

3. Ritwik Dudwadkar(82%, 8.59, -0.04)

Actually higher-rated, by a hair, than either Kaspar right now. It gets crazier, but just look at how close these three are!! This lends credence to the 'Karl's just hot right now' theorem, but it also means that really nobody knows what's going to happen next year with the top rankings. Usually when players are this close, inertia wins(higher seeds get favorable matchups and stay where they are).

4. Hamal Sbai(89%, 8.65, -0.08)

His first year of decline is now evident, but it does have to be said that Sbai is, on paper, now the best player in the world. Does he keep underachieving, or he can he catch lightning in a bottle, do something with that fact, and make a real challenge? He can't do worse than last year's record against the Top 3: 0-8, and most of them weren't close.

Also: This is the lowest-rated 'best player in the world on paper' that I've seen in a LONG time. I really think there's exciting stuff coming. More on that later.

5. Stuart Pargeter(88%, 8.29, -0.11)

Mateo's doubles partner now. Isn't that interesting. Looks like Pargeter's done being a competitive singles player, at least to a degree. It's understandable given that he's in a rut a best.

6. Sushant Chiba(95%, 8.51, +0.01)

Well, that's not a great improvement number ... but a lot of it has to do with him being a 'high' 5.1 skill, 3.9 serve guy right now. Probably will see a more significant boost next year. Looks to be just behind Karl Kaspar overall, 2% and just over 1.5 years younger. I think there's the potential for an interesting rivalry here.

7. Gregory Mackenzie(84%, 8.18, -0.18)

Moved up two spots from 9th, while dropping like this? I think it's safe to say that's not going to last.

8. Gilberto Chinaglia(86%, 8.27, -0.02)

The exact same rating he had two years ago. Chinaglia has arguably the best serve in tennis right now, and is doing everything he can to hang around. Part of me admires a guy who is refuses to go quietly into that good night. Another part just wants him to get out of the way in favor of fresh blood, but good for Gilberto for making the newcomers earn it.

9. Hugo Cordova(88%, 8.19, +0.01)

At his peak, and a big question right now is who among the over-the-hill gang drops the fastest.

10. Kenneth Brasher(92%, 7.96, --)

Riding his big serve as far as it will take him. Which is further than expected so far. Flatlining during a key prime year is not what the doctor ordered, however.

11. Brian Meikeljohn(98%, 8.57, +0.16)

Even with the doubles diversion, he's good enough to be a serious contender. What will he do with that opportunity?

12. Chad Duncan(90%, 7.98, -0.04)

Definitely an overachieving year for him ... but right now if you can serve, you have a chance. There are a lot of slow players out there.

14. John Hart(98%, 8.47, NA)

Yikes. Hart has legitimate technical skills for a top player right now, solid athleticism and mental abilities as well. Nothing special in those areas, but he's got exceptional endurance and has been well-developed. Hart is a legit candidate for future #1. A strong one.

John snuck up on me last year, but he won't do so again.

15. Stanley Edleman(92%, 8.14, -0.01)

I ran the numbers twice on this, just to be sure. The year that Edleman breaks out a bit(22nd last year, mid-20s for a couple before that) he actually doesn't get any better. Go figure. Well he's got one year of improving left to do and there are worse players ranked above him. Top 10 could still happen.

16. Ali Kaihep(91%, 8.30, NA)

Weird for a player this old to just emerge out of nowhere. He's spent far too much on doubles or he'd be better. Good mental game, solid athletically, just not quite there technically because of the doubles thing. Still has every chance to be Top 10.

17. Seamus Hughes(97%, 8.19, NA)

Hughes is a little better mentally, but doesn't have the footspeed or dedication that Hart does. He looks to be the weaker of the two Irish young guns ... but he'll find his way to the Top 5 at least I expect anyway. He's still quite good.

19. Ugljesa Svajnovic(84%, 8.08, +0.07)

A gradual climb looks sensible for Svajnovic. Borderline Top-10 potential depending on what happens with other players.

20. Chalerm Prachuab(94%, 8.28, +0.13)

Sometimes life isn't fair. Prachuab had a good year off the court, and slid two spots. His technical skills are getting close to the required level for him to make a significant jump, and I'd be very surprised if he's not at least in the low teens this year.

21. Mike Rhodes(98%, 7.89, +0.12)

The grand 'who needs baseline play' experiment with the elite-serving, powerful Rhodes made some progress last year. One would expect he'll try to make his mark on the clay events this season. I'm not betting the farm on his success, but it'll be worth watching. When going for an extreme player approach, it might be worth not doing a self-contradictory one(i.e., grind if you're going to grind). Clay is the surface on which being a big server is the least useful. Just saying.

23. Jacek Andrejova(94%, 8.36, +0.13)

Solid improvement for Andrejova, another guy who looks too good not to keep moving up. Similarly flawed from the back as Rhodes, but not to as much of a degree and while he doesn't possess the same power, he has a lot and is mentally strong at a high level also.

26. Benjamin Abanades(95%, 8.18, NA)

Opposite idea here: the next hope for Spain is fast, but has imbalanced himself towards baseline play at the expense of his serve. It's good enough for mid-level Challenge play only. Also has diversified his surface abilities too much. He's proved himself dangerous, and should keep moving up. Probably peaking in the 7-10 range I think, if even that high.

27. Tomas Guadiana(92%, 8.17, +0.09)

Looks like one of those guys who is good enough to get a mention for a few years, but not good enough to make any of the top players really sweat.

28. Valery Stachovsky(99%, 8.01, NA)

It's always interesting to look at a new, young talent. Talent he has in spades(4.9, haven't seen that stratosphere in many moons!). Good endurance as well. Someone should tell him having indoors as your primary surface isn't a real swell idea though. Not the most powerful player, but reasonably fast ... technical abilities are reasonably well-developed also. Looks pretty good, but would need a better manager to really become great. If I had to guess, I'd say probably peaks somewhere around 5th, maybe lower. There's still time to fix the biggest problems, but it's not likely to actually happen.

2037. Amrik Kasaravalli(92%, 6.20, +1.11)

Interestingly he made up some ground here. Chiba was 6.22 at this point, usually players are a bit closer to 6.3, but Kasaravalli is looking like less of a disappointment than expected which backs up the way he performed on the court. In any case, he figures to be ready to tackle the amateur level successfully and get on to futures this year.

Brian Swartz

08-03-2018, 06:11 AM

Special Report: A Wealth of Possibilities

I wanted to do a follow-up on the usual annual preview post, because this year sets up as being a wide-open competition at the top of the rankings. That's partly because of a real historical anomaly. Any of my main players, at their best, would be expected to wipe the floor with any of the current top contenders. Usually I've topped out at 8.75-8.8(Dudwadkar hit the high-water mark at 8.83). Here's the players who I think have a shot at it this season:

** Karl Kaspar(obviously) - 8.57
** Mateo Kaspar - 8.55
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 8.59
** Hamal Sbai - 8.65
** Sushant Chiba - 8.51
** Brian Meikeljohn - 8.57

First I should give an honorable mention to John Hart, who I think is a better prospect than any player I've ever managed, due to his exceptional talent and endurance. I haven't ever had a 5.0 skill, 4.0 serve player at age 23. He's just got too far to go in the rankings at 14th, and rated at 8.47 is just below this group so it'll take him some time. Starting next year though, he could well be mentioned as the 'best player on paper'.

Most years there's an obvious #1. Sometimes two candidates, at most three for a bit of a transition time. In this case though, Karl is hot right now and he's obviously got the inside track. If he slips, Mateo is there but with his work right now on the doubles he'll probably keep declining, so he'd have to start strong. Hamal can do it if he can put everything together for once, and Ritwik really seemed to hit a cold stretch which he'd have to reverse. Sushant and Brian are longer-shots but they are both still improving.

Usually this kind of thing is about management and who has the more-developed player. Proper preparation for tournaments will be massive this season; I can't stress that point enough. The bonus for being in the form 'sweet spot' will swing many matches and points I expect. Beyond that though, it should be a war and simply come down to who is playing better at the time. Karl is the flavor of the month right now but the winds of momentum could change at any time. I've never seen a year so uncertain, with so many good-but-not-great players and no vaguely dominant ones. I'm going to go into every big event not having a clear picture of who will win it. It has the potential to be highly chaotic, and fascinating.

I also rather envy thehitcat, who's done a great job with his young players and is poised, after a year or two longer, to be the top-performing manager for a while. I am of course sandbagging the situation as mentioned for my next and final generation, but Hart/Hughes are definitely superior to Chiba/Kasaravalli, and I expect to take a back seat in the interim.

thehitcat

08-03-2018, 12:39 PM

Special Report: A Wealth of Possibilities
I also rather envy thehitcat, who's done a great job with his young players and is poised, after a year or two longer, to be the top-performing manager for a while. I am of course sandbagging the situation as mentioned for my next and final generation, but Hart/Hughes are definitely superior to Chiba/Kasaravalli, and I expect to take a back seat in the interim.

Yes but now comes the hard part where I need to do something with these guys as they transition from could be to are...:popcorn:

Thanks for the kind words and from your lips to the AI's ears ;)

Brian Swartz

08-06-2018, 03:57 AM

January

The first round of the World Team Cup, on grass against Morocco, saw Hamal Sbai do everything he could. The world #4 beat Dudwadkar in straight sets(all 6-4) and Chiba in four. Unfortunately for them but good for us, their doubles partnership somehow managed to be worse than ours. And that's saying something. We have Girish Kansai(120th) and veteran Ritwik Suksma(346th). Those rankings are after getting the points from their straight-set win here, mind. Just ponder how bad you have to be to not take a set off from that in Level 1 competition. But anyway we win 3-2, and figure to decide the group title next time against 6th-ranked Italy.

Ritwik Dudwadkar played in Brisbane(250) as his warm-up event, and his toughest out was in the quarterfinals. The new Russian I mentioned in the preview, Valery Stachovsky, pushed him to 7-5, 7-6(5). The rest was easy, including the final over Kaihep, the pride of Algeria. Sushant Chiba was off to the Qatar Open(250) as the 2-seed. There was an anticipated match there against John Hart, the first of what will surely be many meetings. It went pretty much to form, a tight one which Sushant won 7-5, 7-6(4) with both players optimally prepared. He won both break points in the match(one on each player's serve) and the tiebreak. That gave him the victory despite being outplayed by a hair overall. Hart is equal technically and moves better around the court, but he doesn't have Chiba's mental game. So for now, and probably not much longer, that still gave my guy the upper hand. The final was a 7-5, 6-2 defeat to Karl Kaspar. No sign in his hardcourt dominance abating as of yet. Also notable was semifinalist Nintau Ariyanuntaka; the Thai 23-year-old started the year ranked 42nd and made a statement here that he's moving up.

Prachuab, Guadiana, and Meikeljohn won the other events, with the last of the three moving back up to #10 with his title. It's time to see who has the goods in the first Slam of the year now as the Australian Open beckons.

Brian Swartz

08-13-2018, 08:51 PM

Australian Open

The first Slam of the year twas quite the shindig. On the first day, (29)Serge Cardone of France was the first seed to fall, in four to Russian Alexey Artamov. Spaniards Cortina and Abanades barely survived, each being pushed the distance. The worst day belonged to (15)Stanley Edleman, summarily dismissed in three sets by Sweden's Ali Soiberg. A couple more low seeds departed as usual in the second round, along with 8th-ranked Chinaglia, courtesy of Nintau Ariyuntanaka, the fast-rising Thai player.

And then in round of 32 things really started getting crazy. (10)Brian Meikeljohn found an early exit thanks to Castegali, while former Top-100 teenager Jorgen Henriksson had a very, very long day before marking his first significant upset on the senior tour. 11th-ranked Kenneth Brasher was the victim, 12-10 in the 5th of this epic match. Hughes and Chiba both needed a 5th as well to advance, and there were more relatively minor upsets.

The young Swede had another long day in the fourth round, but this time Seamus Hughes stopped him, in his second straight five-setter, 9-7 in the 5th. Those two wins will really stoke the young Irish player's fortunes. In a rematch of a recent encounter, John Hart met Sushant Chiba in the match of the day. I expected another close win for my guy, given that Hart was playing doubles as well and was therefore not in optimal form. I was wrong; 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-7(1), 7-6(8), 6-4 was the final as Chiba blew an excellent opportunity to finish this one off in that fourth-set tiebreak. After 56 combined aces and 380 points, it was clear that my warning not too long ago was correct; the Irish are coming.

The top four all made the quarterfinals, but none of the next four did. First up, Seamus Hughes had five-set match number three in a row, but this one eventually ended on the short end against none other than K. Kaspar. Hugo Cordova departed in three close ones against Sbai, John Hart pushed the 'other Kaspar' the distance as well but also lost, and Jacek Andrejova, the young Czech who was the lowest-ranked in the round at #23, lost a competitive if routine encounter to Dudwadkar.

So after all that, Top 4 still hanging around. And then a stunning 6-2, 6-4, 6-3 scoreline as Karl Kaspar was informed he can no longer be comfortable at the top in a beatdown by Sbai. Ritwik Dudwadkar started slow against Mateo Kaspar with a first-set breadstick, then pushed him to two tiebreaks but couldn't win either. Hamal Sbai, at age 28, then faced the former King in what was the first Slam final of his career … and Mateo's 38th. That may have played just a bit of a role in the 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(8) score that gave Kaspar the Elder his 31st Slam crown … and made him the oldest ever to win one at 32 years, 20 weeks. Hey look, it's another record. He lost only two sets … both to Hart. Just sayin'.

Brian Swartz

08-13-2018, 08:56 PM

February

In the second round of the WTC, Italy won doubles but could take only one combined set in singles. Sri Lanka wins 4-1, securing their hold on the group. Then it was off to Acapulco(Hard, 500) for both of my top players after a few weeks off. Ritwik Dudwadkar made an early exit in the semis to Brasher, but Sushant Chiba extracted a bit of revenge with a 6-2, 6-4 win in the final. We both went here because the First of His Name was in Dubai, where he won the tournament.

Amrik Kasaravalli's second amateur event was his first non-juniors title, in routine fashion coming from qualifying position. I'm in no hurry yet to push him higher, but it was a good one for him.

Brian Swartz

08-13-2018, 09:01 PM

It is Time

The Reaping will commence at a little past 3 AM EST tomorrow morning, in just a few hours from now. For better or worse, hopefully the former, the final chapter in this story will begin then. I'll be flooding the field with several cast-offs, but that can't be helped; there's no predicting whether it's good timing or not with the quality of other players in that class anyway.

The reason I've waited until now is to optimize the ages of my players, as best I can. The three I have now were all created on the last week of the year and their birthdays come at the 25th, 30th, and 32nd week of the calendar. So basically just past the halfway point. I'd like my players to be a little bit later than that, so that they are younger than their fellow juniors. That'll make them a little weaker, all things being equal, and allow them to lose more and learn more from their peers. By waiting until week 12, they'll hit their birthdays around week 39-40 if these trends hold. Additionally of course, this gives a few more months as seniors to push their way up before reaching peak. That also gives some leeway if I get a prodigy who ends up a bit younger than that. It's sort of a calculated risk in terms of when the best time is, but this is where I came down on that.

I'll post with the results of my creations as soon as I've finished with the process and evaluated them.

SuperTrainer Testing

I've also got some results of this. Long story boring is that it appears each 0.1 of trainer rating is worth 1% in increased training efficiency. Mehul(low-5.5) is getting about 9% or a bit above improvement over Manohar(high-4.5). That means about 1.5% or so better than the existing 5.3 supertrainers I've seen around. Which isn't that much, but every tiny bit helps when you're talking about improving the peak. And the gain I'll get over Manohar's performance these past year, which already has made a difference, will be a fairly significant.

Brian Swartz

08-14-2018, 02:52 AM

Notable Past TESS Scores

Mateo Kaspar -- 9.3 TE, 7.6 SS, 16.9 total
Prakash Mooljee -- 9.0 TE, 6.9 SS, 15.9 total
John Hart -- 9.7 TE, 6.1 SS, 15.8 total
Anil Mehul -- 9.1 TE, 6.7 SS, 15.8 total
Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 8.9 TE, 6.6 SS, 15.5 total
Girish Girsh -- 8.6 TE, 6.1 SS, 14.7 total
Amrik Kasaravalli -- 7.7 TE, 6.3 SS, 14.0 total
Sushant Chiba -- 8.7 TE, 5.2 SS, 13.9 total

I threw Hart in there because, even though he's even with Mehul and below than Mooljee, he's clearly better than either. TESS is not perfect, and that powerful a mix of Talent and Endurance is tough to find ... as the Reaping would show.

Aparna Thangaraj(14y 20w)
95% aging factor
3.3 Home Adv
3.3 Mentality
4.2 Talent
3.0 Strength
2.8 Speed
3.4 Endurance

TESS of 13.4, the worst I've yet seen.

Rakesh Kayeeda(14y 18w)
97% aging factor
3.3 Home Adv
3.1 Mentality
4.3 Talent
3.4 Strength
1.7 Speed
4.6 Endurance

TESS is 14.9. That endurance is nice, and makes him a tolerable, middle-of-the-pack player compared to my past ones. Thangaraj is the first to be cut.

Girish Koritala(14y 23w)
97% aging factor
3.5 Home Adv
3.0 Mentality
4.1 Talent
2.3 Strength
2.3 Speed
4.2 Endurance

TESS = 12.9. A new low. You are the weakest link Koritala ... goodbye.

Nasir Chittoor(14y 16w)
97% aging factor
3.1 Home Adv
4.1 Mentality
4.3 Talent
3.1 Strength
2.2 Speed
4.7/4.8 Endurance

TESS is 14.3. Endurance is at Hart-like levels. Compared to Rakesh Keeda though, he has much better mentality, the same talent, 0.3 less strength, 0.5 better speed. The mentality makes the difference despite the lower TESS score. Kayeeda goes, Chittoor stays. Five more players to go, and I haven't yet found a player who is as good as my best, let alone a trailblazer. Come on, RNG ...

Shakti Vemireddy(14y 22w)
98% aging factor(grrr)
4.4 Home Adv(nice, but irrelevant for us)
3.5 Mentality
4.2 Talent
3.7 Strength
4.0 Speed
4.2 Endurance

Boy. TESS of 16.1, which is the best I've had. That's based on the athleticism, which is very nice. The more balanced aging curve isn't a positive. Basically comes down to whether nearly doubled speed(4 vs. 2.2) is better than 0.1 in talent and 0.5-0.6 in endurance. I don't think it's that close of a call; it's not. So while this is a glowing TESS score, Vemireddy still hits the waivers.

Ritwik Intodia(14y 19w)
97% aging factor
4.1 Home Adv
3.8 Mentality
4.5 Talent
3.3 Strength
2.9 Speed
4.2 Endurance

TESS comes in at 14.9. Compared to Chittoor, 0.3 less mentality, 0.2 more strength, 0.7 more speed, 0.2 more talent ... same 0.5/0.6 less endurance. It's closer, but once again I've got to stick with Nasir Chittoor and cut Intodia loose. Endurance gap is too big without enough to compensate for it.

Sushant Chivukula(14y 9w) -- If I keep him, I pay for having him actually be one of the oldest in his class.
97% aging factor
3.2 Home Adv
2.8 Mentality
4.3 Talent
2.9 Strength
3.6 Speed
3.6 Endurance.

TESS of 14.4. Pretty good athleticism but endurance is too low, even with how young he starts. Adios; two more to go.

Girish Shivakumar(14y 31w)
97% aging factor
3.9 Home Adv
3.2 Mentality
4.5 Talent
4.5 Strength
2.5 Speed
3.9 Endurance

Oh boy. If only his endurance was higher. TESS of 15.4, but I've got to toss him. Nice talent, excellent strength.

Satyajit Guha(14y 31w)
96% aging factor
3.3 Home Adv
3.7 Mentality
4.3 Talent
3.2 Strength
2.7 Speed
4.4 Endurance

I'm keeping him regardless doing to Guha being the final one. At least he didn't end up being a disaster. TESS is 14.6. Athleticism is solid but nothing to write home about. He's not quite as good as Chittoor, but about as good as everyone else I've run into.

Development Approach

So we're set, with Nasir Chittoor and Satyajit Guha my final pair of players. Chittoor will be developed as normal, while with Guha I'm going to try going for a doubles focus right away. If I had two players super-close to the same ability I was going to stick both with singles and try a rivalry approach, but I think Chittoor is definitely a cut above here. I hoped for a player who could put it all together, but I didn't really get that. That's the think about luck ... you can only optimize your odds, but in this case that wasn't enough. Both of these should have quality careers though, and Guha will ensure we always have a good national team for the WTC. I'm also curious how well I can do in singles with him getting a doubles diversion. Time will tell there.

thehitcat

08-14-2018, 08:47 AM

Oh man look at those players. I want to create a new account of server one just to pick up Kayeeda and Vemireddy so we can see what they become, sadly against the rules. I like your choices. But I don't know that I would have been able to give up on a couple of those players. :)

My most recent youth (I let Kaihep the Algerian go) clocked in with the following
Tommy Fitzpatrick(14y 18w)
96% aging factor
3.7 Home Adv (tour doesn't have many stops on the emerald isle)
3.9 Mentality (my highest for a created player ever)
4.4 Talent
2.9 Strength
3.3 Speed
4.7/8 Endurance

So a TESS ~ 15.3 better than Hughes but not as good as Hart. Still I think worthy with the long aging curve to see what I can build. He was the better of two builds.

As for current days it's time to see if either of my top players can scale the Wall Kaspar. I'm ever hopeful :) Nope pooched again...sigh.

Brian Swartz

08-14-2018, 03:46 PM

Fitzpatrick is still better than any of my guys :). You'll break through the Kaspars in time. Sbai has reason to be aggravated but the other two are just playing a waiting game as they move up. Still did very well for themselves.

Christy

08-15-2018, 12:06 PM

Intodia and Kayeeda will do nicely for me! Was beaten to the punch on Vermireddy though (could only get two anyway but would have left Intodia).

thehitcat

08-15-2018, 07:25 PM

Intodia and Kayeeda will do nicely for me! Was beaten to the punch on Vermireddy though (could only get two anyway but would have left Intodia).

Very Cool I'll be very interested to see how our young'uns all develop.

Brian Swartz

08-18-2018, 01:44 AM

Now I spose I got to add them to the list of players to update too … :P.

I did a whole big rankings update and then accidentally deleted it. Don't feel like writing it again. Short version: 'Little John' Hart won Miami, with epic matches over Pargeter in semis and Karl Kaspar in the final. He's not waiting on anything, and is up to #8. Sbai is up to #3, and Chiba beat Dudwadkar soundly in Miami, is now 5th and looking to push higher. Last two years he's stumbled at RG early after winning a clay Masters, so that'll be key as the will KK's ability to repeat there. Still lots of the young players pushing upwards; Prachuab is 13th, Andrejova 14th, Henrikkson(31st) and 21-year-old Harald Balzer(29th, SWE) on the move as well further down. Also made a bad joke about not knowing how many of them have the Hart to succeed.

Amrik Kasaravalli is past the Amateur stage at 924th, preparing for his push into futures. He's actually a little ahead of Chiba's pace, which is surprising. My new players are about to take their first events when the week flips over. Ritwik Dudwadkar has new and unproven management, but he helped us beat Mexico 4-1 to complete a perfect trip through our group in the WTC. We'll see how things sit when we get to the knockout rounds a few months down the road.

The big deal now is seeing who steps forward in the clay season. If Karl Kaspar is going to crack, this will probably be the time.

Brian Swartz

09-01-2018, 11:36 PM

Clay Masters

The year started living up to the prediction of chaos some here. Sushant Chiba won Monte Carlo in a tight match over Karl Kaspar, who didn't even play here last year. Sbai was a semifinalist, losing narrowly to Kaspar. Chiba then stumbled early in Madrid for the second year in a row, and ultimately John Hart won his first Masters as a 7-seed, with Kaspar again the runner-up. Another close SF loss for Hamal Sbai, to Hart ... and Chalerm Prachuab, seeded 11th, made a surprise run. In Rome, His Karlness broke through to beat Hart in the semis and Chiba in the final, with former RG champ (10)Gilberto Chinaglia the oddball there.

So heading into RG, it looked like Kaspar was the favorite as the most consistent, but then there was Chiba and Hart who'd each beaten him. The steady but unspectacular and underachieving Sbai couldn't be counted out either.

Brian Swartz

09-04-2018, 03:04 PM

2061 Roland Garros

Young Frenchman (26)Willy Bochette was a surprise as the only seed to exit in the first round, in four sets to Sorel. I would have figured home court advantage to guarantee him at least a couple of wins here. Three more fell in the second round, including Edleman and Stachovsky, both of whom will be quite disappointed in such an early exit. The next couple of rounds held a surprise here and there but nothing major. (12)Brian Meikeljohn and (8)Chalerm Prachuab contested the most epic match of the tournament to date in the fourth round, with Meikeljohn eventually prevailing 8-6 in the 5th.

One of the most significant factors was who was not here, as Mateo Kaspar had abandoned singles play completely months ago in pursuit of his doubles goals. (6)Stuart Pargeter lost in the first week, largely due to his doubles work as Kaspar's partner, but still most of the top players made it through to the quarterfinals.

The first match was a stunning one, with Karl Kaspar's bit for a 3-peat here prematurely derailed by American Hugo Cordova, an 11-seed considered past his prime. 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 was the final, and it was a match that Karl should have won. He was the more consistent player but managed not to find many break chances despite that, and it was close in terms of quality. Just a really stunning result. Cordova was a semifinalist here two years ago but aside form that has done nothing at RG. Hamal Sbai lost as well, a four-set match to Hart that was not as much of a shock. For the second straight round, Meikeljohn won 8-6 in the 5th as Ritwik Dudwadkar waved goodbye, and Seamus Hughes was the only player not to win a set, against Chiba.

None of the top four players in the world rankings made the semifinals. This was truly to be a bizarre end to the tournament. Cordova worked his magic again, winning another match in which he was slightly outplayed over John Hart, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3. In the end, Hugo was more steady here over the majority of play, but had that one terrible set in the 4th. A surprisingly easy win over Meikeljohn for Sushant Chiba set up an unexpected finale. This time his US foe had no surprises up his sleeve, and a trio of 6-3 sets later it was over. Chiba claims his first Slam title, and with it moves up to #3(effectively #2 with Mateo gone) in the world! It's rare to see somebody win this event without losing a set. He had a couple of tiebreakers earlier on(Chinaglia and Hughes) but neither of them were close. So for this year at least, Sushant is overall the best on the dirt.

thehitcat

11-05-2018, 09:25 AM

WTC Finals should be fun this year. May the best team win :)

Brian Swartz

11-07-2018, 01:03 AM

Hope not … it'll be Ireland if that's the case :popcorn:

thehitcat

11-07-2018, 07:17 AM

Competitive then? But yes it should be fun to watch :popcorn:

Brian Swartz

12-10-2018, 03:18 AM

Haven't posted on this in a while, but congratulations to John Hart, who ascended to world #1 recently after winning Roland Garros - his third Slam title. I knew he'd make it eventually. And Hughes is up to #4 as well, having beaten Chiba in a coin-flip QF there (blasted fourth-set tiebreaker!).

thehitcat

12-10-2018, 09:55 AM

Thanks Brian. All down to you and this thread. I look forward to our continued duels in the coming years. For now I just want to ride this wave with my Irishmen.

Brian Swartz

12-26-2018, 01:11 AM

So Ireland beat Sri Lanka 4-1 in the World Team Cup again, this time in the SF. That's not a surprise, but I was annoyed at the way it came, with two 5-set losses by Sushant Chiba. Both were epics, 8-6 in the final stanza against Hart and 11-9 against Hughes. Should have won one of them.

I'm sure a 'luck of the Irish' joke is appropriate here, I'm just not sure how to word it.

thehitcat

12-27-2018, 07:24 AM

Lucky indeed as my guys aren't great on the mental side and in my experience that's where long tiebreakers/sets tend to get decided.

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12-28-2018, 04:03 AM

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Brian Swartz

01-05-2019, 03:27 AM

Ireland wins its second straight WTC championship. Over the last five years, every since they re-entered the competition following a ten-year hiatus, they have played 33 WTC ties. And won all of them. This makes Sri Lanka's rise through the WTC ranks many years earlier look like bumbling efforts of a small child; we ran into Hammerstein's Austria early on and didn't even make it to the top level right away, then had rivalries with Benda's Germans and Iglar's Czech Republic to keep us from any such run of success.

Sri Lanka still holds a narrow lead in national rankings, 2535 points to 2484. That will assuredly go away next year.

Brian Swartz

01-11-2019, 05:42 PM

Now I'll toot my own horn briefly. Sushant Chiba, after I didn't even have him in the AO last year due to an oversight, proceeded to run the table including an 11-9 5th-set win over #3 Meikeljohn in the quarterfinals. A four-set SF win over clear #1 Hart and then a straight-sets victory over a cinderella foe in the final gave him his fourth Slam title - vaulting him back up from #5 in the rankings to #3, and nearly 2nd as Kaspar is only a few hundred points ahead. Chiba will be my first major player never to reach #1, but he's still up to 4th in the Sri Lanka legends rundown now ahead of Dudwadkar and it's a great title for him being a little past his prime now at nearly 28 years old. Cool to get a word in edgewise and move back into the Top 4 with him.

On the other hand, for the first time nearly in memory Sri Lanka isn't #1 in the national rankings - a group loss to India started off the year and put our chances of even getting out of that stage in serious jeopardy. It was also enough for Ireland to claim the top spot.

Brian Swartz

01-13-2019, 03:06 AM

More bad news for Sri Lanka as we drop another group tie in the WTC, 3-2 again, to the United States. In this group Mexico - which entered the year 15th or worse overall and has never really done anything - has two wins and will make it to the knockout rounds, while India and the USA are fighting for that second spot. As the standings sit now two Top-5 nations (us and the Americans) would both not make it. I've never seen anything remotely like this. Chiba won his two matches but got no help.

The last time Sri Lanka failed to make it out of group play was … wait for it … 2041. It is currently 2064. Almost a quarter-century. And that's literally the only other time, because the year before was the season we promoted up from Level 2. This stuff just doesn't happen to us.

Brian Swartz

01-29-2019, 04:10 PM

More interesting news from the life and times of Sushant Chiba. We at Roland Garros in the schedule, and while the clay season didn't start well for him - QF at Monte Carlo, embarrassing third-round loss at Madrid - it has improved. Made the final at Rome, coming up just short in a third-set TB against Molyneaux. Heading into the SF, Chiba has guaranteed himself to surpass Prince Karl 'First of His Name' Kaspar for the first time and get back to #2 in the world. Kaspar suffered an early loss in the round of 16, and I've been hovering just behind him for months. Karl may have 12 more Masters than Sushant (19-7), 3 WTF crowns to my 0, and double the Slam count (8-4), but my prediction that I could surpass him for a time late-career is finally coming to fruition when it seemed it wouldn't.

And that's not all. Next up is defending champion and world #1 John Hart. Hart holds a 12-8 edge in the H2H, but in two meetings on clay Chiba has won both times. The last one was a Rome SF this year, a gross travesty of a match in which Chiba won all his BP, scattered 8 of 11 chances against, and basically performed highway robbery to win in three sets. If he can muster up another win against the pride of Ireland on this larger stage and claim a second RG title against whoever comes out of the other side - won here three years ago - he would be less than 600 points out of the top spot when next week's rankings come out. There's a chance, albeit not a very good one, that he could somehow find his way to #1 in the world before the sun sets on his time in tennis.

Brian Swartz

01-29-2019, 08:39 PM

None of that matters now as Hart looks on track to repeat after a 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win in the semifinal. My Irish foil was a little better, and a little luckier each in this match. Chiba played well enough to give himself a chance, but the right player won. Still, getting back to #2 at age 28 is a very nice thing in and of itself.

thehitcat

02-08-2019, 08:23 AM

Sushant Chiba just chopped through both my Irishmen at the Canada Masters. 6/7(12) 6/4 7/6 (3) in a tight match over Seamus Hughes in the Quarters and then in another squeaker 6/4 5/7 7/6(9) over Little Johnny Hart in the Semis. Best of luck in the Finals against Brian Meikeljohn.

Christy

02-11-2019, 09:21 AM

thehitcat

02-13-2019, 06:09 AM

No. 1 in the world doesn't seem that tough! Beaten by some upstart who has been playing mostly on the challenger circuit. Need to get my boasting in quick before any potential rematch when he is not out of form!

First time since he first made a QF 4 years ago that Hart has not been involved in a slam second week.

Sorry I didn't get on earlier to congratulate you. Nothing like having one of your up and comers knock off a top seed or in this case the #1 player in the world. Good luck in the future (against everyone else :) )

Christy

02-14-2019, 12:06 PM

Thank you.

In the end Solberg was a bit too tough but took him to 5 sets (looking back at the US there appears to be a lot of 5 setters actually).

Still it is a good omen going forward. I had some passable careers in gw3 testing things out and Perez seems to be tracking ahead of them so far.

Good to see some Irish doing well. Created some myself but all my created players so far have been below par.

Brian Swartz

02-15-2019, 04:48 PM

Perez is a good one. Not a challenger player anymore - and he's going to kick Kasaravalli's arse.

Christy

02-16-2019, 12:19 PM

He is. And kicked on well from the US with a 250 final and a 500 victory! Had hoped for all this in a years time. Goals have changed to see if he can make a serious dent in the top 10 next season. Seeding will be important for him. He is defending 325 points before the Australian Open so will likely not make much ground before then but during and after the Open some ground could be made.

Kasaravalli is definitely one of your academy's weaker prospects over recent years but that is not saying much.

Brian Swartz

02-17-2019, 02:15 AM

My tracking has him as THE worst - previous players were emerging from Challengers by now, he's got another year. So he'll merely be like Top 5 or something. #EntitledManagerProblems. Just beat the #2 seed at CH2 Tiburon in the QF in a 3-tiebreak match, a Top-50 scalp . .. and then got beat by an unseeded player in the semis. There's been a lot of that kind of inconsistent crap coming out of his results.

I'd say your goals for Perez are quite reasonable. I currently grade him out at 8.32, which is usually good enough for the 5th-8th range. Comparatively, Hart is 8.86, or a hair better than any of my players have ever reached. And it doesn't hurt any of us to have stuff like Meikeljohn's manager criminally overplaying him a lot of the time. The main problem you'll have I think is the strong 'in-their-prime' group that is currently in place. Chiba, ex-Prince Karl, and Andrejova are the only ones who are over-the-hill at all right now. So might have to be a bit patient. World Tour Finals next year would personally be my goal.

.02

Christy

02-20-2019, 12:33 PM

I would argue Rodriguez is a serious banana skin at that level due to automatic competition scheduling keeping his ranking down. I would say it is just take the results as they come and not worry about ranking till Kasavaralli is a bit better.

You are probably right on Perez. Getting to top 16 early would be a big help. He should have plenty of improvement in him anyway so probably won't push the schedule to far just yet.

Rodriguez was one of my before actually!

Brian Swartz

02-22-2019, 11:15 PM

Chiba is now 0-for-5 in getting past the round-robin stage of the World Tour Finals. Won a close 3-setter against Kaspar, then got beat down by Meikeljohn … and lost to Harald Balzer 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4 to decide it. Meikeljohn wins all three, Kaspar advances among three 1-win guys for second place on the tiebreaker. So the one guy Chiba beat, goes through anyway. I've lost four of five to Balzer now after winning the first five matches against him, but three of the four losses were indoors. Overall played better than he did but a 19-7 disparity in aces did me in.

I just wanted one semi. Ah well. Congrats to those dorks from Ireland, who both advanced out of Group 1.

britrock88

02-25-2019, 09:16 AM

The very productive Pargeter-M. Kaspar partnership has concluded as of the recent WTFs, as the Kaspar manager has now paired Mateo with Karl for the doubles circuit. I went down the doubles ranking list to find a new partner for Pargeter and landed on Christian Castelgali, currently ranked 18th. Stuart and Christian should land as the #2 or #3 ranked pair in the early going next season.

britrock88

02-25-2019, 09:18 AM

FTR, Pargeter/Mateo landed 8 GS wins and 10 Masters titles in 4 seasons.

From my end, I just wish Pargeter had notched a singles GS win--a crushing 5-set final defeat to Karl at Roland Garros comes to mind--so that he could rank among the American legends.

Brian Swartz

02-28-2019, 12:42 AM

That's one heck of a doubles career. Pretty sound choice in partners ;)

Brian Swartz

02-28-2019, 03:23 AM

National Rankings

1. Ireland - 2604
2. Argentina - 2372
3. Sri Lanka - 2219
4. France - 2195
5. Spain - 2038
6. Sweden - 2037
7. United States - 2012
8. Thailand - 2000
9. Italy - 1876
10. The Netherlands - 1869

Look how far we've fallen; Ireland remains a dominant force, and we were thrown into the once-unthinkable position of being in a relegation playoff. Kasaravalli made his WTC singles debut, and we beat Morocco 3-2 ... but have started the new year off wrong with an indoors loss to Russia (3-1 pending the final rubber). Russia is ranked 15th, and we also have #6 Sweden and #8 Thailand in our group. We could very easily fail to escape the group round again. Sri Lanka is only a shadow of our former selves. We will rise again, but man is this ugly.

Also, the Americans are definitely down a lot further than I'm used to seeing them; always a Top-4 or 5 nation most of the time.

Brian Swartz

02-28-2019, 04:08 AM

Not sure how far I'll go with it in the coming year, but with my two youngsters coming out of juniors I want to try to do some proper end/start-of-year update stuff.

2065 Player Rankings

1. John Hart(IRE, 27) - 14,330

At midseason there was some question as to whether Hart would retain the top spot. That doubt is long-gone. The world's best player is in his prime and has won 90+ singles matches three years running, with a personal-best 97-6 mark this past season. 5 Masters, 2 Slams, and the WTF - a blind bet on him to win any big event would do better than 50/50.

2. Sushant Chiba(SRI, 28) - 9,880

Finally did ascend past Prince Karl this year, aided mightily by the 'second Kaspar' deciding to go doubles. I predicted this would happen eventually - but I thought it'd carry Chiba to a brief stay at #1. It happened far too late for that. One Slam (Australia) was his only big success, but six more runner-up appearances make him the clear #2 and help ease the pain of yet another crap showing at the WTF. 77 singles match wins is a personal high ... but 18 defeats is the most in the last four years. The nation's struggles in the WTC have a lot to do with those facts.

3. Barry Molyneaux(USA, 26) - 7,355

The American standard-bearer is an enigma, champion at the USO and Rome but had early exits at RG and half of the Masters events. If he can find more consistency, he could be the top challenger to Hart's throne.

4. Brian Meikeljohn(IND, 26) - 6,035

The top player in Indian history - and it's not close, nobody else has cracked the Top 10 - Meikeljohn's speed is legendary. Unfortunately, the mismanagement of his schedule and training is a close second in notability. The Canada Masters was his only big title this year, and we're still waiting for that breakout season that may well never come.

5. Karl Kaspar(FRA, 30) - 5,550

An All-Kaspar doubles pairing of King and Prince was inevitable, and will be the bane of the pairs tour. It also will leave a hole, as Prince Karl 'First of His Name' has won 8 Slams, 3 WTFs, and 19 Masters shields in a sparkling career in which he spent almost three full years as the #1 singles player on the planet.

6. Harald Balzer(SUI, 25) - 4,850

Balzer is the highest-ranking Swiss since the first decade of the international tour, and Harald hopes to become just the second from his country to win a singles major. Or Masters, for that matter. He made the second week of three Slams including runner-up at RG ... but exited by round of 16 in every last Masters he played. Something's gotta give there.

7. Seamus Hughes(IRE, 27) - 4,820

The 'other Irishman' was once ranked as high as 4th, and it's not too late for him to get back there. This season was his worst in the last four years, but it was mostly just bad luck I think. He's not quite over the hill yet.

8. Ali Solberg(SWE, 25) - 4,780

6-8 are all jockeying for position here, and almost withing striking range of 4th-ranked Meikeljohn. Things could get very interesting. Solberg was inconsistent, but reached the Wimbledon final and had three other big semis to his credit. He's becoming an increasingly feared name in the draw.

9. Valery Stachovsky(RUS, 26) - 3,880

AO finalist ... and third-round loser at the other three Slams. A trio of Masters quarterfinals ... and he skipped two mandatory events there as well. Stachovsky could do something, or nothing. He's got stuff to figure out here.

10. Isa Solheim(25, DEN) - 3,360

Do not adjust your reception, we have a Top-10 player from Denmark. Solheim's ranking is twice as good as that of Jens Petersen, who flourished a generation ago and was the previous standard-bearer. Former doubles no. 1 Egon Bengtsson is the only bigger name in Danish tennis history. A handful of strong results include the highlight of a Monte Carlo runner-up showing, but it's another mixed bag here.

11. Mike Rhodes(26, PHI)

Somebody tell Rhodes that you have to do more than win 250s at this level. Seven of them last year. Only five counted towards his ranking. And that doesn't include the crapton he didn't win. Meanwhile, 4th round or worse at the Slams. He can break into the Top 10 without even working at it if he schedules better.

14. Jorge Campos(26, MEX)

A semifinalist at Wimbledon ... and that's it. Is he going up or down?

15. Fabrizio Abinati(26, ARG)

Same thing here. QF at RG was his one good result.

16. Srba Dogic(23, CRO)

Just turned 23, and had deep runs at the USO and Cincinatti. Likes the summer hard-courts apparently. At this age one would expected greater things are ahead.

17. Tim de Jong(23, NLD)

A Challenger player at this point last year, de Jong is on the rise. How far is an open question though.

19. Nicolas Perez(22, ARG)

Youngest player in the Top-32 by almost a full year, Perez likewise is up from the Challengers. QF at the USO and champion at the Japan Open (500), he broke through late in the year and big things are expected. Timing is the only question.

20. Constantino Gonzoles(24, ARG)

Argentina is swimming in rising youngsters these days. Gonzoles can point to multiple 250-level successes and a QF run at Roland Garros.

21. Samuel Aas(24, SWE)

Consistent at the 250/500 level, Aas still has time to show he can aim higher.

22. Clavet Moniotte(23, FRA)

Another guy transitioning from the challenger circuit. Jury's still out.

26. Patrick Sanchez(26, ARG)

Hey Argentina - how many of these guys do you NEED?!?

27. Stefan Baloch(25, ITA)

A weird batch of results - didn't win a title at any level last year. Looks like a guy who tried to make the jump to the big time too early and kind of floundered around.

30. Matteus Ameen(30, SWE)

13 Challenger titles just last year. Never got by the second round in three Slam appearances. That's stupefying, but the others floating around the Top-50 level will be glad to get a word in edgewise with Ameen presumptively joining the elite group.

32. Guillermo Valturri(25, MEX)

Limited 250 success, CH+ Helsinki a few weeks ago was his biggest trophy. We'll see if he sticks.

Overview

Looks like a decent mix with a little above-average group pushing up, and a bunch of in-their-prime guys set to start declining in a year or two. A good year to be patient ... and then make your move in '66. Of course, patience is not something most players enjoy, even when it's required.

Brian Swartz

02-28-2019, 06:16 AM

2065 Preview

1. John Hart - 91%, 8.84

Athletically only a little above-average, Hart has no peers technically. He's an elite player from the back and I don't often see a better serve (5.3/4.3). No reason he shouldn't continue to easily stay on top.

2. Sushant Chiba - 87%, 8.61

The elite mental game allows Chiba to still be better than almost everyone else, but he's just hanging on technically and what modest athleticism he did have is quickly going away. If he can avoid an early AO loss, he could well retain the #2 spot just by virtue of being competitive with the rest of the pack and having favorable draws.

3. Barry Molyneaux - 90%, 8.61

Elite strength and even better mentality than Chiba, Molyneaux is missing only consistency and, critically, ability to hang in the rallies. He's fast, but not fast enough to make up for that against the better-serving players. That's really his biggest weakness and it probably keeps him about where he is.

4. Brian Meikeljohn - 90%, 8.89

Meikeljohn has excellent mental skill, and I've still not seen anyone close to matching his incredible footspeed. Technique is now typical top-player fare, and that combination should make him a serious competitor for Hart. As I said years ago. Without the mismanagement, we wouldn't being talking about Irish ascendancy in such unqualified terms. But it appears he'd rather play on both tours - Brian is ranked 34th in doubles as well - and so the world's best player on paper continues to sabotage his chances of becoming that on the court.

5. Karl Kaspar - 84%, 8.27

The doubles diversion has sapped his ability to maintain his level, clearly. It's remarkable he continued to play as well as he has, but Karl is now leaving the singles fight to others.

6. Harald Balzer - 91%, 8.46

Balzer is a quality athlete with fairly good mental habits, and you seriously don't want to mess with him if the crowd favors his fortunes. A subpar serve is what holds him back at the top level, and he's a meteoric talent who won't be around long. All of that adds up to him never going any higher than 5th most likely.

7. Seamus Hughes - 90%, 8.57

Second only to his countryman in technique, Hughes unfortunately has cement feet even moreso than Chiba. Still, he's arguably the guy who should take Kaspar's spot behind the Top 4.

8. Ali Solberg - 93%, 8.60

The highest-ranked player who still has his best tennis ahead of him, at least in theory, Solberg is also a serious competitor for that #5 spot. The draw system is really the only thing keeping him from aiming higher this year, but a Top-4 berth in the future certainly seems like a strong possibility. Speed and mental game are quite good, and Ali isn't all-time great material but he checks all the important boxes. Rally skill is just a hair low ... but again he's a year away from his prime so that may well come.

9. Valery Stachovsky - 92%, 8.41

A gifted player whose serve is the envy of almost anyone from not-Ireland, Stachovsky isn't much of an athlete. He's focused on the indoor courts, which could make him a real WTF threat if he can slide up a spot. Relative to other top players though he has a real weakness on hard courts, and doesn't have the game to make up for it.

10. Isa Solheim - 93%, 8.47

Quite good in pressure situations, solid technique, reasonably mobile ... but the power game just isn't there for Solheim. Close to the full package, but not quite the whole thing. Still, Solheim should be a fixture in the lower reaches of the Top-10 for a few years. And for a Dane, that's rarefied air.

11. Mike Rhodes - 91%, 8.29

Mismanagement kills, and you have to do more than serve. Mike's first-strike weapon is the best in the game, and he still has quite impressive physical power. He's slow, mentally weak, and never bothered to figure out how to rally effectively enough to hang with the best. Ultimately those weaknesses count for qutie a bit more than the strengths, but he's nobody's idea of a safe opponent.

14. Jorge Campos - 91%, 8.01

Slow and technically subpar, I'm going with overrated here. Campos shouldn't be a threat to the Top 10.

15. Fabrizio Abinati - 92%, 8.32

Abinati is a solid athlete, just isn't quite there technically. Still could improve some and should be ranked a bit higher. Close ... but it's getting a bit late for him to make the improvements he needs to. Probably will sneak onto the first page for perhaps a year.

16. Srba Dogic - 96%, 8.26

Good power and better mental focus, Dogic is lacking significantly in baseline play but still has time. Dedication isn't all that impressive but it's good enough - Croatia's first Top-10 player since the decline of Svajnovic would appear to be in the near future here.

17. Tim de Jong - 96%, 8.23

de Jong is a natural (5.0 talent), his serve is at least good enough right now, and he has pretty good power. The rally skill is lacking, however. Another guy that should get on the top page eventually. It'll be interesting to see whether Tim or Srba ends up with the better career. From this vantage point it could go either way.

19. Nicolas Perez - 98%, 8.41

Hard work overcomes many obstacles. Perez is proof, as he's nothing special as an athlete but dedication to his craft (4.7 endurance) has him playing at a Top-10 level right now, just past his 22nd birthday. The success he found at the end of last year is no fluke, but he's not enough better than those ahead of him to make immediate further progress a gimme. Still, Nicolas seems primed to eventually give Argentina a serious run at having the next #1 after Hart. I don't see any serious rival at the moment.

20. Constantino Gonzoles - 95%, 8.49

Gonzoles is the flip side of that coin. He has fine physical gifts, and is a mental powerhouse. Constantino is also lazy, which shows in his technique. Probably slightly the better player right now, and he figures to have a fine career, but he won't hold a candle to Perez in the long run.

21. Samuel Aas - 93%, 8.24

A weak mind holds Aas back, but technique is strong and athleticism adequate. Still looking like an odd man out in this generation, just not quite as good as the others.

22. Clavet Moniotte - 97%, 8.10

Abysmal baseline play, partly due to too much time spent on doubles concepts, spoils an otherwhise fine French package. Moniotte already has a good serve, so how far he goes depends largely on how much he concentrates effort on that one glaring weakness.

** Note: This is a really good group overall, lots of 8+ improving players. Impressive generation.

26. Patrick Sanchez - 94%, 8.25

Best athlete in a generation that has some quite good ones. Too much doubles though, and the technical abilities just aren't there. Sanchez is an interesting curiosity, but too much ground to make up.

27. Stefan Baloch - 93%, 8.14

Baloch has been very well-developed, but lacks the endurance or athleticism to really threaten the best competition. It's rare that I see a player who doesn't have elite gifting but has been pretty much optimized - Baloch has quality technique from a somewhat limited skillset. That deserves a round of applause, and I'll be rooting for him to do well. A bit of a clay specialist who does well at home, so Rome could be a big event for him.

30. Matteus Ameen - 97%, 8.15

Solid across the board really. Ameen is missing only some technique improvements, and very average endurance is to blame for that I think. Another player who won't be a pushover at his peak and has been well-handled.

32. Guillermo Valturri - 94%, 7.94

Weak baseline play, solid serve with some power, but definitely a cut below the others.

69. Amrik Kasaravalli - 98%, 8.07

True to what Christy mentioned, Kasaravalli isn't as bad as his late-developing ranking would indicate. He's still behind the pace in terms of abilities compared to my other players, but the quality of competition plays a part here as well. That's a serious pack of players to fight through ahead, in terms of depth and variety probably the best I've seen. The lot of you in this thread have a good deal to do with it. As the lagging technique improves, Amrik will be making a push to break out of the Challengers around the end of this year or beginning of the next. Among the players his age, from what I've seen so far Perez is clearly a couple of cuts above but we're in the same ballpark as the others here.

1495. Nasir Chittoor - 87%, 5.64

Just slightly ahead of the pace of Dudwadkar(+1 raw skill at the same age), my best player from a technical training point of view, Chittoor has won both amateur events he entered. Only finished about 30th in juniors, but he was younger than most of the others on purpose and that played a role. Partering with Guha really bolstered him as they made it deep in many doubles events; on the other hand I screwed up a lot of weeks his first couple of years to slow him down. A power outage just this past week didn't help things either.

NR, 2212(D). Satyajit Guha - 89%, 4.92

If that looks like a big gap between two players who are basically the same age ... well, it is. Guha, as shown by his early singles exits, isn't quite ready for even amateur events. He's close though. The big elephant in the room is the fact that he's at 3.7 in doubles ability as he leaves the junior ranks. Scheduling will be interesting at times - so far the pairing has won both amateur events in doubles. I'll have to stagger some what events they enter, at times Chittoor's singles will push us to bigger events and Guha won't be ready for them, etc. Overall though, Guha's presence allows Chittoor to get experience more efficiently, and I continue to be intrigued by just how high I can get the 'lesser' player in singles, what his doubles career will look like, and so on. Eventually I'll need a proper higher-ranking partner for him.

Many questions to sort out, but for now we're progressing smoothly towards jumping into futures. If anyone wants me to look at any of the younger players you are training, I'll add a blurb on them as well.

thehitcat

02-28-2019, 11:15 AM

Tommy Fitzpatrick? :) Wouldn't want you to have the top ten to yourself... :) Oh and that Morroco you took out was the last gasp of Hamal Sbai keeping his country in the top flight more or less by himself for 3 years.

Brian Swartz

02-28-2019, 03:07 PM

NR. Tommy Fitzpatrick - 91%, 5.98

Fitzpatrick made several SF his last year in juniors, and has now progressed to the senior tour. Decent but unimpressive athleticism and mental game, he has excellent endurance and won't be unranked for long - he's playing his first amateur event at press time. Same age class as Guha/Chittoor, but a little bit older with corresponding development.

Morocco definitely deserved an easier matchup. Usually a player as good as Sbai is enough to keep a nation up.

thehitcat

02-28-2019, 03:25 PM

"Decent but unimpressive athleticism and mental game" is the hallmark of my players...with as much Endurance as I can get :) Thanks!

And don't cry for Hamal yet, he just won 3 matches against China himself more or less. He and Morocco may bounce back up.

Brian Swartz

03-01-2019, 01:31 AM

I decided to just go ahead and add the other players, at least those who are relevant, from the other people who post in this thread whether they asked me to or not, want me to or not. Then I'll use these are part of the reference for future reports, should I make any.

84. Joao Narcisco - 99%, 7.30

Looks like he was picked up after about a four-year spell on AI control. Impressive that it didn't totally ruin him. Narcisco is a good athlete who has Doubles Diversion Disease and is behind technically, though not as much as you might think. He won't be a star, but he'll at least rise far enough to be worth mentioning in his own right if well-handled.

NR. Ritwik Intodia - 88%, 5.78

One of a couple of my cast-offs, Intodia's junior high was 41st. Still, he's a little ahead of Chittoor at the moment and appears to be off to a good start. Good mentality, above-average athleticism.

NR. Rakesh Kayeeda - 88%, 5.54

Slower and not as good in pressure moments, Kayeeda doesn't look as promising. Still, if both of these plus Fitzpatrick keep getting developed, it'll be quite the competitive generation. I've got others out there under the control of unknown management - we'll see if they prove themselves relevant down the line.

Christy

03-01-2019, 03:48 AM

Thanks for all the work on these! Including on the (now ex) juniors.

If you ever need any help with them just ask.

Rhodes showed you were right in your analysis. Took two tie break sets on hard courts which he doesn't like for Perez to take him out. Winning more points only helps so much when you can't get breaks. Will probably end up 2nd to Hart but the form was the main goal of the competition (and likely the year) which I already have by making the final.

I had to look back at previous generations to get an idea of this one is doing and it definitely comes in swings.

I reckon De Jong over Dogic BTW as de Jong has managed to keep up with him so far and Dogic is meteoric.

Brian Swartz

03-01-2019, 04:50 PM

If you ever need any help with them just ask.

I want Chittoor to have 5.5 strength and speed. Oh, not what you meant? :D Probably a good pick with De Jong, we'll see what happens there.

Nasir Chittoor and the Quest for 8.9
Juniors Overview

By 8.9 of course I refer to my 'overall rating'. All of my players have hit around 8.75, and Dudwadkar had the highest - although a bit brief - peak AFAIK at 8.83. So if I can get to 8.90 or better, that would definitely make Chittoor my best ever, and I think it's achievable. I also wanted to do a bit of a walkthrough through his career and show how it compares to other players of mine around the way - and what I've changed in my approach over time.

Raw Training Comparison

The raw skill/service/doubles numbers from my previous players. I didn't start tracking Girsh till age 21, and Mehul till age 24, so this isn't complete. But at age 18, here's how the others fared:

** Moojee 72/46/1
** Dudwadkar 67/54/0
** Chiba 69/48/2
** Kasaravalli 64/51/0
** Chittoor 68/54/0
** Guha 51/40/71

We can see how much including the doubles is affecting Guha, and also that I used to do skill a lot more early on. Now I keep it more even between skill/service at first, and gradually 'tilt' the balance to the desired ratio by the time they hit 4.0 service, as I've previously discussed. Among the others, Chiba and Kasaravalli were definitely the ones lagging behind at this age. Chittoor is just a hair ahead of the pace set by Mooljee and Dudwadkar here.

Juniors Results

This is the7th 'generation' of Sri Lanka talents I've raised and trained. They are listed in chronological order here. As you might imagine, what was once a matter of literally being alive and able to draw breath to get into the national Legends roll now takes a bit more doing. Kasaravalli just debuted at #10 - you've got to be well inside the Top 100 now to make it, so my latest proteges have some work to do before that happens.

** Anil Mehul - 9 titles, 15y 14w to 18y 32w, peaked at #15
** Girish Girsh - 10, 15y 19w to 18y 16w, #6
** Prakash Mooljee - 17, 14y 46w to 17y 43w, #11
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 8 , 15y 6w to 18y 9w, #8
** Sushant Chiba - 19, 15y 1w to 17y 44w, #3
** Amrik Kasaravalli - 10, 15y 33 w to 18y 5w, #6
** Nasir Chittoor - 11, 15y 29w to 16y 38w, #13
** Satyajit Guha - 4, 15y 51w to 17y 28w, #68

I've made this point before, but the biggest thing to get from all this is that juniors results don't tell you much of anything about how good as a pro a prospect will be. Chiba was my finest junior, and my first player never to make it to #1 as a senior thanks to the Kaspars and Irish. Aside from Guha, Mehul was among the worst and is recognized as the nation's finest ever player, justifiably. He was an 'old' junior on the opposite end as Chittoor, but also had a rock-bottom aging factor of 95%. And then there's Mooljee, who found success early but his later development years were not so kind. find these measures a lot more useful though as we go through the higher levels of competition. Along with the raw training comparisons, they provide a useful yardstick or framework to measure whether a player is progressing more quickly or slowly than my previous attempts. While I'm only going to include my own players here, those of you who have others of similar age like Fitzpatrick or Intodia may wish to see how your results compare as well.

As a general rule, it's been mentioned you want a good doubles partner in this stage. First year(age 14-15) is about establishing the player as JG5 and you'll lose a lot the first few months. Second year at JG4, third year at JG3, final year at JGS/JGA/JG1s primarily, the big events. And of course any JTC apperances you can make will help a lot. I continue to favor, at all levels, the idea of playing the biggest event you can confidently be a Top-4 seed at. Sometimes you can find a favorable spot in the schedule with a busy week to 'play up' a level above what you'd normally be able to do.

Brian Swartz

03-01-2019, 04:52 PM

Amateur Results

** Anil Mehul - 3, 19y 4w to 19y 16w
** Girish Girsh - 3, 18y 38w to 19y 5w
** Prakash Mooljee - 4, 18y 9w to 18y 45w
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 3, 18y 44w to 19y 10w
** Sushant Chiba - 3, 18y 41w to 18y 51w
** Amrik Kasaravalli - 3, 18y 33w to 18y 41w
** Nasir Chittoor - 1, 17y 51w to 17y 51w
** Satyajit Guha - 0, NA

Amateur tournaments are for anyone ranked outside the top 1000. This doesn't last long, and generally requires players rated approximately 5.0-5.25 to succeed in. Strong players will be at this easily upon turning pro and leaving the junior ranks, which is why none of my prospects stayed here long. It takes four tournaments to get through at 6 points for a win; 20-21 points are required to get you to 1000th in the rankings. Of course you can skip them entirely, but as 64-draw events both singles and doubles they are worth the matches you can get, unless you are too good for practicing against players of this level. That would require a particularly prodigious talent (i.e., Kaspar/Gorritepe level pretty much) or a high aging factor. I'm getting pretty good practice results even with Chittoor. And you can see that only Mooljee actually won four tournaments at this level, meaning the others lost at least once.

Contrary to what I said before, Chittoor actually lost a close final in his second try, so he's already joined the well-stocked 'didn't sweep the amateurs' club. It was the usual deal against a high-skill, no-serve player who had 24 doubled faults but won over half of Chittoor's serve points. That kind of match is annoying and we'll see them for a while. Mehul being a late starter in terms of age is also seen here - but he plowed his way through in little time. With the later players I started doing, as I have with my latest pair, a tournament or two late in their final juniors year after the USO(J). Mooljee is the only one who seems to have sort of stalled a bit here, taking a lot longer between first and last amateur titles.

Chittoor got his first amateur win 10 weeks faster than Mooljee and a lot faster than anyone else - it'll be interesting to see how long it takes him to get through. You can pretty much count on Guha to have not won any events by that time; he'll sort of just get dragged up to futures 'before his time'. The other factor at play here is that Nasir, due to getting all the way through the doubles draw with having a top-quality partner for that and all, will be able to take more practice weeks in-between events. This is beneficial in terms of training efficiently, but will also serve to keep him at the Amateur level longer than otherwhise due to tournaments being more spaced-out.

Christy

03-02-2019, 07:00 AM

Figured I would add my own for comparison. This is any player I kept long enough to get to the top 32.

GW1:
Samuel Aas (17yr 47wk ) 5.95 73/50/4 Junior: 21 (Inc. 4 JGS)
15Yr*9wk 18Yr*22wk
Amateur: 1
18Yr*14wk 18Yr*14wk

Nicolas Perez (17yr 43wk ) 5.82 75/51/0 Junior: 14(Inc. 1 JGS)
14Yr*47wk 18Yr*5wk
Amateur: 1
18Yr*14wk 18Yr*14wk

Ritwik Intodia (17yr 50wk) 5.46 69/46/0 Junior: 11
15Yr*28wk 17Yr*3wk
Rakesh Kayeeda (17yr 49wk ) 5.29 71/48/0 Junior: 7
15Yr*7wk 16Yr*44wk

GW3:
Bruno Corbolan (18yr 1wk) 5.38 67/44/4 Junior: 7
15Yr*23wk 18Yr*13wk
Amateur: 3
18Yr*30wk 19Yr*1wk

Natalio Arvizu 17yr 49wk 5.79 71/48/9 Junior: 18 (inc 2 JGS)
14Yr*30wk 18Yr*9wk
Amateur: 2
18Yr*39wk 18Yr*43wk

Stevan Cason 5.88 18yr 7wk 73/48/3 Junior: 11
15Yr*0wk 18Yr*7wk
Amateur: 4
18Yr*20wk 18Yr*38wk

Santa Claus 5.68 (I didn't name him) 18yr 17wk 72/45/5 Junior: 10
15Yr*26wk 17Yr*16wk
Amateur 3
18Yr*29wk 18Yr*40wk

Shows your junior point to be true. Aas dominated at that level far more than any other player I have had.

Comparing to you I might be too timid putting them into high level competitions. I suspect my junior wins are inflated by the lower levels (except Aas who was great then).

For the GW3 players. Cason went nowhere. Generally around Aas' current level.
Bruno was a decent teens player. Made a masters final. Arvizu was about the same level but clay specialisation brought him to 3rd. Two Masters and Two GS to his name (all clay). Did make two WTF finals but lost them both.
Santa Claus was incredible. Reached 8.68.
And achieved nothing. Reached 2 GS Finals and a Masters final. Lost 9-7 in the final set in Wimbledon and massacred twice. In the end he was around at the same time as two all time greats and couldn't get by them. He reached 14 GS quarter finals in 4 years and couldn't bring home a trophy.

Shows timing and specialisation can make a difference. For all the speed of the game there are still some really good GW3 players somehow.

Brian Swartz

03-02-2019, 01:00 PM

January

It was a month to forget for us. After losing to Russia 3-2 in the WTC, though Amrik Kasaravalli did manage a five-set win on the final day to make that pill a bit easier to swallow, we proceeded to other matters. Kasaravalli managed a 3-seed at CH1 Sao Paolo, where he lost in three sets in the quarterfinals. To an unseeded player who would win just four games against the 2-seed in the semis. Sushant Chiba did even worse, losing to unseeded players in the QFs of back-to-back 250s; local WC William Todhunter in Brisbane, and eventual finalist Harald Wentz in Sydney. So undistinguished is that pair that it's entirely possible I'll never have cause to mention their names again. .

Both youngsters took the time to train - Chittoor isn't due for another tournament until early March. Chiba, the world no. 2, enters the Australian Open at 3-3 on the young season. Either he pulls his head out of his arse, or the defending champion will be fortunate to so much as make the second week this year.

Christy

03-03-2019, 09:42 AM

That was frustrating. Perez had beaten Stachovsky in the US Open and thought he could do it again. He proved he could though but also simply didn't. In position to win all 5 sets, only managed 2 of them. The draw was very nice to Perez here though it has to be said. He might sneak into a top 16 berth after that. Gains 135 points and a few ahead of him are not moving or falling backwards. Should get to 17th and Kaspar seems to have given up all singles matches.

A match that bodes well for the future but definitely would have been nice to get through. Especially as Solheim would have been a winnable quarter final. Need to figure out scheduling before IW now, a win might have kept me out of competition till then. Now might dip into the Argentine Open to keep up form.

You had me worried as my round 1 match was vs William Todhunter and I read your post right before the match! We also had a rematch against Il Sung Jung who was a rival when they were both juniors (Ollie Haas being the number 1 at the time).

Aas pushed Balzer (who also struggled vs an unseeded opponent in the 4th round).

Chiba is doing well though had a bit of an armchair ride to the quarter finals. Now he gets some serious tests to keep going to defend his title.

I expected Kasaravalli to lose vs Solberg. He returned fine against him (28% is not bad in that match up) but his serve seemed to go to pieces and Solberg ate him up badly.

We also had De Jong beat Dogic though the latter will remain ahead in the rankings.

Brian Swartz

03-03-2019, 03:01 PM

It was Kasaravalli's first-ever Slam victory, so I'll definitely take the good draw I got in the first round for him. Also managed to luck out with a blast from the past, Ruben Piazzola, as his doubles partner and won a round there. He was never going to beat Solberg so definitely a good tournament for him. Chiba continues to have epic matches with Seamus Hughes, this time rallying from two sets down to win in five. Five consecutive best-of-five matches between the two have gone the distance. That's just wacko. Solberg's won the last two HC matchups so it'll be a tough semi, but either way Sushant has done enough to keep a solid grip on the #2 spot which is good enough for me.

Christy

03-03-2019, 04:29 PM

Indeed. It was good to get a win and I never expected a win there in the second round. Just expected a different game. I think he could have taken a few of the weaker seeds but getting one of them in round 2 might have been asking a bit much.

A good win for Chiba against Hughes. This is a big moment for Solberg to kick on or wait in the wings for a while longer.

I think a lot would have needed for Chiba to lose the number 2 spot. A host of strong Masters performances and another runner up Grand Slam spot last year means he was not too reliant on one result. The fact that he is kept up a good showing here probably means he can also afford slip ups in future competitions and still keep number 2. Going down in ability he may be but there are still few who will match him (from a technical point of view I think it is just the Irish)

2 other random points.

I was checking back on last years results and noticed how much Mateo Kaspar's name kept coming up. With my players in the lower leagues I had not realised his dominance. Especially in Australia with 11 in a row!!! He didn't fade either, he left the GS scene on a win. Looking at his history is incredible.

I have been checking up on how many experience points my players get over time. I took away any of the experience that was down to talent and just focused on matches/training. I worked out that each 0.1 of experience gives you about 7.3 extra experience per week. Roughly. Obviously this will go up if you are in Grand Slams and WTC matches a lot near the top of the rankings or down if a player is mismanaged/competing in lower level competitions/getting one sided matches. The trend from my various players looks pretty linear so I am happy that is how it is done.

Brian Swartz

03-05-2019, 12:56 AM

Re: Chiba and the #2 - I'd already lost 200 points with the 250 results, and if I'd gone out in even the QFs, I would have lost most of the cushion I had on the 3-5 spots.

As it is, things worked out pretty well. After a bad first set, he rallied to beat Ali Solberg in four despite getting severely out-aced. 2nd and 4th sets were tiebreaks, so the mental game came up big there to get the win. Then it was John Hart in the final. He hadn't lost a set all tournament - and still didn't, claiming a 7-6(5), 6-1, 6-4 victory. I think Hart is going to rip the tour a new one for the next couple of years and potentially post a couple of historically great seasons. That's partly because he's an excellent player, and partly because nobody else is better than 'very good'. The Irish champion holds four of the five big titles right now, last year's early USO loss being the lone exception. And, one would think, a rare one. I don't see him going unbeaten or anything like that, but he's going to be tough to defeat in a 5-set format, regardless of surface.

thehitcat

03-05-2019, 07:30 AM

From your lips to god's ears. EdIT I thought the Australian completed Hart's career Grand Slam which would have been pretty exciting having raised him up from his 14 year old days, but it turns out he's still never won the US Open :) Whoops!. Hughes is an interesting case to me. He's just slightly worse than Hart but he's never won anything bigger than a 250. A 3-15 record against Chiba doesn't help but with the new generation starting to make its mark I'm not sure he'll ever get over the hump.

Brian Swartz

03-05-2019, 05:13 PM

World Team Cup, Group 4, Round 2
Sri Lanka(3rd) vs. Sweden(4th)

Before Russia threw a wrench into things, one would have thought this would be the pair who would tussle for the group's top spot. An unceremonious loss in doubles put us down 2-1 with Sushant Chiba grabbing the only win. Chiba had a second 4-set victory in as many weeks over Ali Solberg to level the tie, and then a stunning turn of events as Amrik Kasaravalli upset 19th-ranked Jorgen Henriksson, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 to give Sri Lanka an unlikely and much-needed 3-2 win!

I thought we'd be facing Thailand in the final group round to avoid going back to the relegation playoff. We still rank behind Sweden on tiebreakers despite having beaten them though. If they defeat Russia, we could still find ourselves not getting through even if we beat Thailand. They have two Top-30 players so they are no pushovers, and yet are likely to find themselves in the relegation playoff.

Basically, Group 4 is just plain stupid.

Brian Swartz

03-05-2019, 05:29 PM

Hughes is an interesting case to me. He's just slightly worse than Hart but he's never won anything bigger than a 250. A 3-15 record against Chiba doesn't help but with the new generation starting to make its mark I'm not sure he'll ever get over the hump.

I don't think the gap between them is that small. 8.84 compared to 8.57. Hughes has definitely gotten unlucky, but basically Hart is good enough that he doesn't have to be lucky. Hughes is merely one of several very good players: Chiba, Solberg, Molyneaux all very comparable, Meikeljohn quite a bit better. He does seem to be missing that 'something extra' that champions have, but in most generations I think he's be peaking at #2 or #3 and not for all that long.

.02

Christy

03-06-2019, 10:38 AM

Question on trainers:

It says in the help section that they retire at 60 but you still seem to have Manohar at 62. What is the retirement age as I have just realised my own is getting on in years.

Brian Swartz

03-06-2019, 11:45 AM

I'm not certain but I think it's 65. That help statement is an artifact from when the playing age limit was 40; I think they were upped from 40/60 to 45/65. We'll find out in a few years.

Christy

03-06-2019, 03:15 PM

Thank you. A quick look at the market shows that I have a lot options for potential trainers. I think I will leave it about 3 more years and make a decision on Aas/Kayeeda as to which will make room for a new potential trainer.

Christy

03-07-2019, 06:01 PM

Interestingly Rhodes is now 1 250 title away from making the top 10 list for most 250 titles. Largely due to over playing.

Should get a few places up that list due high strength/clay speciality.

Noticed that the players with the most 250 doubles titles are from the same manager as well.

Brian Swartz

03-08-2019, 01:09 PM

Some of that, for other players, was probably accumulated in the early days before form was a thing. That's one reason why Martin Prieto, the gold standard at that point, made so much money and won so many small ones.

Brian Swartz

03-10-2019, 11:43 PM

February/March

** Sushant Chiba usually plays a 500 before the IW/Miami swing, but didn't do so this time because it didn't occur to me. A mistake, although a minor one.

** Amrik Kasaravalli needed rest and training, and got it. Form is still high but it's down from where it was in the upper 20s.

** Satyajit Guha and Nasir Chittoor played another amateur event (clay, Munich) in late February. I'd planned on waiting to get Chittoor out there but he was having a bit too easy a time of it in practice events. I was toying with the idea of having him jump to futures. That was clearly putting the cart well before the horse, as he lost in the final for the second straight tournament. It did boost his ranking from about 1500th to 1300th, and results have been better since so I think he's ranked closer to his playing level now. The pairing won in doubles for the third straight amateur, while Guha was knocked out in the first round of singles.

Christy

03-13-2019, 10:26 AM

So I starter tracking how a few players have been doing since the start of the year (I was avoiding housework at the weekend...). While it will track the scores for the wtf it is too early for that. It was more to get a fairer rep on how Perez is doing on a full professional schedule against the rest.

I think I remember that you once said about 5000 is a good safe line for the wtf. Well Hart is on 4950 with WTC matches to come this week!!!

It also shows how well Solheim has been doing. He is still in 8th as I write this but has nearly half of his points not set to run out till next year.

Perez has been doing OK. He is far above what he managed this time last year. Still he has not been able to break seeding this year. Some runner up finishes in the minor ones and round of 16 in the big ones.

He nearly took advantage of Chiba not playing that 500 before IW. Made a mess of Chiba's serve entirely winning 35% off of it. Couldn't make it count as Chiba's mental strength led him to win with 3/3 on break points vs Perez having 2/5.
He did also manage 10 break points vs Hart in Miami but only converted 1. To be fair Hart did play better overall. Definitely some missed opportunities sticking him around 11th so far this season in a dog fight with Dogic and Balzar (who needs improved results to keep his place). There are 1 or 2 ahead of him that he is likely to catch, being there through a heavy schedule as opposed to doing well at the big events.

Brian Swartz

03-13-2019, 03:15 PM

Thanks for not beating Sushant Chiba as that would have made his life even worse. As it is he nearly fell out of the #2 spot after losing the QFs at both Masters, to Solberg and Hughes. Got drilled in IW frankly, and despite winning the total points 101-98 against Hughes in Miami it was still the proper result.

Amrik Kasaravalli lost badly in the semis of CH2 Santiago, 6-3 6-1 to top-seed Giona Angloma. He then won CH2 Marrakech thanks to the top seed there being badly overplayed. The slow climb continues for him.

Nasir Chittoor played another amateur and lost in the semis this time. So he's got at least one more to go and is still working his way through this level for sure. Satyajit Guha played a couple, losing early in the one he entered without his normal partner, and then they won the doubles title again in the last one. Guha still has yet to make it past the second round of an amateur as a singles player. Looks like one more for Nasir will be coming up but not for several weeks as he's really getting some good practice results now so I'm in no hurry.

Brian Swartz

03-18-2019, 03:24 PM

April

I missed Q1, but I'm hoping to the usual normal and race rankings stuff after Wimbledon - if somebody doesn't beat me to it first :lol:

Short version is the bottom has fallen out for Sushant Chiba. Aside from the Australian, this entire year has been a disaster for him. Not only is he slowly declining, but he's also in a serious slump. Early losses at Monte Carlo - eventually won by third-ranked Brian Meikeljohn and then at the Barcelona 500 the week after drop him to 20-8 on the season. That's a .714 winning pct, which would be the worst of his career. At ANY level. The last couple of years he's won about 81% of his matches. As we head into the meat of the clay season, he has a chance to make some hay at Madrid where he lost early last time. If he can't do that, and keeps playing the way he has been, Chiba will soon start falling. As it is, Meikeljohn and Molyneaux are only a few hundred points behind.

Amrik Kasaravalli lost both his matches, both of them competitive, in a 3-2 loss against Thailand that ensured we'd once again lose in WTC group play. Russia won the group with three victories, everyone else won once, so Sweden advances, Thailand is in the relegation playoff, and we are just done. The final match against veteran Chalerm Prachuab, ranked 39th, is one I won't soon forget. Kasaravalli led 6-4, 7-6(3), then won only eight combined games in a total choke job the rest of the way to lose in five. One more set from him and we were in the quarters. His serve ... wasn't there, with as many double faults as aces (8 apiece). Guh. After that he took a few weeks off to rest, and is back out there next week for another challenger.

Nasir Chittoor has just been training - this is his last week of that before what I hope will be his final amateur. Satyagit Guha played another solo amateur in Rosario last week and proved once again he can't do it without his buddy. Upset loss in the third round in doubles, was unlucky to be matched against the top seed in singles, bowing out at the first hurdle there. He's good enough now to make a modest run in amateurs given the right draw, but still needs luck for that to happen. Maybe next week.

Christy

03-19-2019, 04:27 AM

Chiba definitely seems to be trying to give up the no. 2 spot. Madrid was not a disaster for him but hardly great. He will be pushed to keep it past Rome.

I think Chiba's best asset is that I am not sure if Molyneaux is able to go grab his spot or is just waiting for China to drift by. Meikeljohn may well be able to go for that spot though.

Clay seems interesting at the moment with none of the top players being clay specialists. It gave Perez a chance as Molyneaux was not a bad draw for the 3rd round which he took well. He may well be overplayed by the time Rome/the French rolls around as he best Solberg as well even managing a better ratio on his breakpoints (the Molyneaux game was won via sheer weight of break points). Hindsight is 20/20 and I may not have managed to make it this far if I didn't have the form.

Still should bring him up to the front page and looking for a top 8 spot.

Balzar I reckon will drop but I don't know if Perez or Dogic will take his spot. Balzar manager the interesting technique of losing his first matches in Madrid/Rome and getting to the French Open final. I am not sure how that works but he has a lot of points to defend. He went out in 1 in Madrid again.

The expected loss to Hart came but he gave him a run for his money. The lack of clay specialists is helping Perez here a lot. And a few of the top players will be tired by next week so should be more chaos.

Christy

03-20-2019, 06:29 AM

!!!!! That was chaos with 0 of the top 4 in the semi finals and an unseeded finalist!

I have never seen a draw open up for someone like it did for Aas. The will against Solheim was good but then it opened entirely with Choba and Meiklejohn having bad tournaments leaving him against the overplayed 11th seed and the 16th seed to make the final! He may be a few lines of data in their system but I am happy he has gotten his story for the grandkids moment. Whatever happens for him in the final it has been an outstanding success. Incredible for him.

Perez's route was much different. He managed to get Hughes as he was still warming up and Hart when he was tired from Madrid and the first few Rome matches (that was an epic match). A good performance against Solberg while he was tired was also appreciated. He beat Solberg in sets but at one point in he was 1 point away from going 0-4 in the first set. Definitely a close one. He will be wrecked for Rolland Barros but definitely worth it. Hopefully Balzer drops a bit and he can snatch that 8th seed which would be invaluable going forward. Either way he should be able to skip the grass season outside of Wimbledon itself.

I feel bad for Chiba's start to the year. However he does somehow cling onto no. 2 if my maths is right. Hopefully he turns it around in two weeks time (and in a different side of the draw to Perez).

thehitcat

03-20-2019, 07:57 AM

Congrats on crashing through both of my Irishmen. Good luck in the final :)

Christy

03-20-2019, 12:40 PM

Congrats on crashing through both of my Irishmen. Good luck in the final :)

Both finalists were mine so not sure luck was required. A good close game for a few points of xp wasn't bad and Aas gets his Cinderella ending. Perez will rue a missed opportunity for some serious silverware but I doubt this will be his last shot. It does mean getting into the top 8 is out of reach for a while at least.

I don't see Aas getting another shot like that so it is good from that perspective that he took it. My first masters title in gw1 so I am pretty happy.

Brian Swartz

03-22-2019, 12:59 AM

I think Perez will be able to recover fine - a little tired for RG but it shouldn't hurt him too much. I've always been of the mindset that you have to plan for the expected result - if you make it further then that's just a bonus and being a bit out-of-form for a bit is a minor headache in comparison. As far as Aas is concerned - one doesn't just win Masters as an unseeded player. That's amazing! He won't be able to do it again - because he'll be seeded now. Making the QFs from that position is noteworthy, semis is rare … actually winning just doesn't happen. That motivated me to look up some history. Here's the last time somebody won the big events without being seeded:

** AO - 1999 (Prieto)
** RG - 1990 (A qualifier in the inaugural year of the tour)
** WIM - Never, although the 32-seed did win it the first year.
** USO - Never, it's been a Top-8 seed without exception.

Masters records only go back 40 years. Cheap beauracracy I guess. Still, within that time-frame:

** IW - Never
** Miami - Never
** MC - Never
** Madrid - Never, but that Chiba dork was the closest as a 15-seed champ in '59. Not that I'm tooting my own horn here or anything.
** Rome - Never before this year. You may remember meteoric Canadian Luc Janin, who took the title as a 14-seed in '50.
** Canada - Never. Ritwik Dudwadkar was seeded 14th in '53.
** Cincinatti - Never. In '39, Antonin Iglar came from the 11th spot as one of his coming-out parties.
** Shanghai -- Never. In fact, only once was the champion not seeded in the Top 3!
** Paris -- Never. Zourab Andronikov of Georgia, who you don't remember because he was never higher than 7th, won it as the final seed(16th) in '48. Ending a string of three straight titles by Girsh. Grrr. Soon afterwards, Mateo Kaspar's stupid run of 11 in a row would begin.

So take a bow, Samuel Aas. You just pulled off the biggest tournament upset win in modern tennis history. Now go sit over in the corner and give us back our sport please ;)

In all seriousness, I think this points up the parity in the game right now. Hart's real good - but if he loses then who the heck knows.

Brian Swartz

03-22-2019, 01:11 AM

May

The clay Masters personified the year Sushant Chiba is having. He lost a 7-5 final-set tiebreak to Hughes, the kind he used to pull out on a regular basis, in the Madrid QF. Had he won that, he'd probably have made the final. I can't exactly feel bad about this given how many times he's beaten the Irish no. 2 when he should have lost. Then in Rome, an Italian beat him at the first hurdle. Santino Belmon would go on to lose his next match after a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 success in this encounter. It was a typical Chiba loss this year - vastly inferior opponent but they have the fans of their side, close match but Sushant outplays them slightly, yet still finding a way to lose. Belmon is one of dozens of players who are just good enough to give him a match on his worst day. He's just finding a way to have that worst day repeatedly this year. I've seen it before - but not on this scale. It's actually kind of amusing when you think about it. In related news, I'm down to 13th in the manager rankings btw.

So going into RG, Chiba basically needs to go at least far as #3 Meikeljohn to retain his ranking. Fittingly, they are both on the same side of the bracket, so if neither chokes - which will probably happen - they'll meet in the semis with the #2 explicitly on the line. Unless Molyneaux makes the final, which is unlikely as he's yet to get past the quarters there.

Amrik Kasaravalli lost at CH1 Busan in the semis to one of the top challenger players right now, Sweden's Matteus Ameen. A competitive but clear defeat, 7-5, 3-6, 6-3. He's getting closer. My tracking shows him nearly a year behind my other players in terms of his training, which is rather disheartening if not entirely surprising. Top-seeded William Todhunter at CH2 Fergana was one of his biggest conquests to date the next week, and he continues to float in the low-mid 60s ranking-wise.

Nasir Chittoor escaped from the amateur ranks by taking the title in Warsaw, both singles and doubles. He beat Satyajit Guha in the SFs. Winning that wasn't surprising, but rather that Guha got there. It happened by virtue of long, tough matches over middling seeds. So now that my doubles specialist is finally ready for his current singles tier … I've got to haul him up further and throw him in the deep end of the pool again. :D

Brian Swartz

03-22-2019, 01:23 AM

Futures Comparison

** Anil Mehul - 32, 19y 22w to 44y 18w
** Girish Girsh - 3, 19y 12w to 19y 36w
** Prakash Mooljee - 8, 18y 51w to 19y 37w
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 8, 19y 16w to 20y 10w
** Sushant Chiba - 6, 19y 8w to 19y 39w
** Amrik Kasaravalli - 12, 18y 51w to 20y 40w

Futures are for players ranked 201st through 1000th. You can play them when you are lower than that, but you'll get more matches by going into the Amateurs so I think overall it's not typically a good idea. Usually the dime-a-dozen journeyman vets that you can pick up whenever you like will be stuck at this level. My first player and soon-to-retire trainer Anil Manohar was one of those. Anyone even half-good though won't stay here, and a quick progression through is expected for those of world-class talent.

Mehul is obviously an exception, as a lot of his futures events took place during his trainer training stage well after his prime. So his total and last title you can pretty much throw out. Girsh I didn't schedule the way I do now - I think I moved him up to Challengers before he was really ready. Typically my players have escaped futures well before turning 20, though Dudwadkar took a little longer. This is where Kasaravalli's inferiority really starts to show up as well - he required pretty much a full two years in this stage and was 6-12 months behind the other Sri Lanka Legends(tm) by the time it was over. A situation that hasn't improved since.

Nasir Chittoor spent a little more time in the amateurs than the others, and won only two events there. Still, he enters the futures with a headwind of several months over the contingent above - 16 to 42 weeks depending on who the comparison is. I'm interested to see if that gap narrows more at this point, or if he can make his way smoothly through. Satyagit Guha just had his first decent run, and now he'll once again be in over his head in singles - though I expect continued successes for the pairing in doubles.

Brian Swartz

03-22-2019, 02:01 AM

The Master's Wheel

This title is shamelessly stolen from the 1998 move The Mask of Zorro. Explanation given by Zorro, as played by the incomparable Anthony Hopkins:

https://i.imgur.com/0lyZPcS.png

This is called a training circle, a Master's Wheel. This circle will be your world, your whole life. Until I tell you otherwhise there is nothing outside of it. ... As your skill with the sword improves, you will progress to a smaller circle. With each circle your world contracts, bringing you that much closer to your adversary, that much closer to retribution.

Over time I've described the progression in this game as well, with a racket not a sword of course, in similar terms of a series of concentric circles. I think it's a useful word picture, and in competitive world here the part of bringing you closer to your adversary is very true as well. In the current struggle, Nasir Chittoor is leveling up through the various ranks of the game but his true targets are not really visible. If I do my job reasonably well, Chittoor-Fitzpatrick, Chittoor-Intodia, and so on will be matchups that are quite important at the top of the game in about five years' time. Yet for the moment it is only rarely if ever that these encounters will occur between the lines, so many and varied are the venues available to them for tournaments at this level, and so spread out that one week on the calendar is as useful as the next.

If a picture is truly worth a thousand words, that perhaps even my haphazard MS Paint skills are worth more than that paragraph you just wasted enough of your life to read, showing decidedly questionable judgement in the process. A visual representation may be better.

https://i.imgur.com/PqSvXTi.png

At press time there were 2,778 players with at least one ranking point on the pro tour. Additionally there will generally be 100-150 more participating in practise events that are unranked, and more beyond that who are unranked and playing amateurs - those that haven't gotten far enough to actually gain a point and get a ranking. Add all that up, and the outer black circle serves as our baseline, the largest circle. It represents an even 3000 players, a nice round even estimation. The size of the other circles are displayed relative to that full amount.

Then we come to second circle, here shown in red. This represents everybody who has graduated Amateur play, or the Futures-and-above range. That's the area that Chittoor has just entered. Our next goal is to reach the Top 200, and the Challenger Circuit. That's the yellow circle. As you can see, at that point I'm going to soon need a 'zoomed-in' graphic to even be able to see much of anything. Futures and up represents the top third, Challenger and up the best <7%. So even here, we're aiming for a pretty select group.

Brian Swartz

03-22-2019, 03:27 AM

So Chiba just pulled one completely out of his arse. Roland Garros third round, first real chance to blow this tournament, facing off against (23) Clavette Moniotte of France. So home crowd against us again, and I also debated between playing a 250 the week before and decided to just play doubles here. Wrong choice, losing quickly in the first round to get just one match out of it, and I needed more than that.

Score was 7-5, 1-6 after two and down a break at 3-5 in the third, Chiba holds and breaks to love as Moniotte serves for the set. We go to a tiebreak. Down an early minibreak, Sushant rallies to even it up, and then takes the narrow 7-5 decision at the first set point chance. Fourth set is pretty even, another tiebreak. Chiba loses the first three points, and also trailed 5-2, a pair of minibreaks with the Frenchman serving. So naturally we're going to five … but somehow Sushant reels off the next five points to win this match in four, 7-5, 1-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(5). Match stats dead-even for the most part, 136 points apiece. This could very easily have ended here … but he lives to play another day. Stachovsky, not the best clay-courter to put it charitably, is up next. If we get by that, it's probably Hughes in the QFs and that would a tough one at best.

thehitcat

03-22-2019, 01:17 PM

Quarterfinal date with Mr. Perez on his favored Clay again. Let's see what happens this time around. :)

Christy

03-22-2019, 01:28 PM

Quarterfinal date with Mr. Perez on his favored Clay again. Let's see what happens this time around. :)

Including the US Open (which largely marks the start of Perez' time as a full time pro as he went from 41st to 29th) this is Perez' 13th competition (excluding WTC) since the first meeting between Hart and him there.

This will be their 7th match in those 13 competitions which is crazy in such a short space of time. Not like they have been meeting in finals, just the one 250 final.

Should be interesting as always. Both are a little tired from the clay masters. Hart is still the better player but Perez is improving at a faster rate and likes the clay.

thehitcat

03-22-2019, 03:08 PM

During the match my Rocking Rackets site died. Don't really know how it went but it looks pretty tidy on the scoreboard for Monsieur Hart. I'm certain we'll meet again soon Monsieur Perez.

Brian Swartz

03-22-2019, 03:33 PM

Welp, our new #2 is Brian Meikeljohn, who just beat last year's finalist Balzer in straight sets. Mike Rhodes was a bit of a surprise as Chiba's QF opponent - and then crushed him 6-2, 6-3, 6-2. Lost almost half his service points against a guy with an impotent baseline game. Rhodes's weird combo of big serving (4.5 is the best I've ever seen there) and being a clay specialist hasn't generally served him well over the years. It's working so far here though.

And Hart did fine, Perez out in the quarters in a routine but competitive result.

Christy

03-22-2019, 05:26 PM

The match that knocked Chiba down a place brought Perez up to no. 8 with Balzer losing 800 points from his final appearance last year.

Aas ended up in the Swedish section with 3 Swedes going for same spot in the last 16 with a likely match vs Solberg then. He gave the fans their money's worth with two 4 setters and a 5 setter vs Henriksson but he grinded his way forward. Solberg was the predicted r16 match. Aas going onto the board of legends as the first Swede to win a singles masters (there is one player with a wtf for them) must be annoying Solberg who is used to the plaudits back home. He let loose in set 1 as Aas was 2 breaks down before winning a point and didn't win a game. Sets 2 and 3 were fairer but no repeat of the Cinderella story.

Perez had an easy route till r3 when he faced Abinati. A quality clay courter. I had hoped he would stay in the top 16 to avoid this but mysteriously lost his first game in both clay masters. He also beat Perez a few weeks ago in a clay 250 final in straight sets. A banana skin covered in oil for me. Perez went a break down in both the first two sets but managed to split them, winning a tie break. In the 3rd set he won in a period both players abandoned the serve with 6 breaks. Perez got the edge there and forced it in the 4th for the win. Solheim had a rocket start to the year but clay has slower him down a bit. Perez again went a break down early but fought back for the set. Again he showed his ability to win a dirty set in the second with a mass of broken serves before closing out the 3rd in a more usual fashion. A match with a combined 37 break points. Solheim served 15 games and only won 8.

Then for the 3rd time in 4 weeks he played Hart. For the third time in a row Perez' serve was a mess but now he was against Hart and couldn't make up for it with his return game. Not sure if it is his strength or just a bad week for his serve. Certainly clay slows down the play a lot but he could use some consistency there. Still overall a good week thanks to his return game.

Elsewhere Mpakati pushed Hughes all the way. Definitely a big threat going forward. Hughes then fell to Rhodes. A very capable clay courter who is going to doe from exhaustion. Rhodes then brushed aside Chiba and I am unsure if he will be able to stand up at all vs Meiklejohn given how overplayed he is.

Molyneaux was beaten early by Tim de Jong who is starting to make good on some talent after a poor start to the season. He was also driven to 5 sets in the 3rd round by Aviles who could play spoiler on clay in a few years. With proper management could even start to dominate the surface.

Brian Swartz

03-22-2019, 05:33 PM

My math says Perez will be just behind Balzer for the moment and still in 9th …

7. Solheim - 4450
8. Balzer - 3845
9. Perez - 3790

Not that it really matters much, it won't take long to move up that little bit and get the spot.

ETA: yeah my math sucks, that's why. Perez should be at 3970, so you're right. I'll just let myself out.

Christy

03-23-2019, 02:05 PM

Balzer will get a chance to get back 8th before Wimbledon at Halle. It will be him vs Hughes by the looks of things. Annoying to have an important seed on the line Perez off the court. Rhodes will likely lose ranking points in terms of the race at Halle. It will be his 4th 500 and overtake a 250 win! I am curious as to how you will describe that situation. He will likely be higher than some of the probables after Wimbledon (if my own maths is right) but can he be described as probable in his own right when he is likely to not pick up many more points?

Going for a change of strategy (that many are likely doing) and chasing xp with practise sessions. Before it was all about the court surface which is probably a decent technique till they hit the top level. Now Perez won't get much from them without some more top 10 players there. I reckon I have wasted a few points on this but not too many I hope/reckon.

Until a few hours ago I had been thinking of Perez training indoor. He lost out last Christmas when he couldn't do challengers but couldn't get many matches at the end of year indoor matches. This year seeding/ability should get him further (and hopefully the wtf) which should see him through the off season.

Solberg looks to be the next one eyeing up Chiba but with a finals finish to defend in Wimbledon he will likely need to wait a few months. As an aside I overtook one of the game's greats in the manager rankings. Though he will likely grab it back as soon as Mr. 8.9 gets up to full speed.

Brian Swartz

03-23-2019, 04:38 PM

I am curious as to how you will describe that situation. He will likely be higher than some of the probables after Wimbledon (if my own maths is right) but can he be described as probable in his own right when he is likely to not pick up many more points?

I've always based that breakdown on the math at the time. Not all the players end up filling out all of their 500/250 spots optimally anyway, so it's not specifically as big a deal as it may appear to be.

Going for a change of strategy (that many are likely doing) and chasing xp with practise sessions. Before it was all about the court surface which is probably a decent technique till they hit the top level.

I always end up doing that at some point. That's why my players end up being better on clay at the start of their career than the end, because they do more HC training later to stay with the horde of top players. It also usually ends up with me having a suboptimal court distribution though, so it's a tough balance to strike and is one of those things that I don't think I have 'just right' yet.

he will likely grab it back as soon as Mr. 8.9 gets up to full speed.

I hope so, but we'll see. I'm a shadow of my former self in the manager rolls.

2nd through 5th being seperated by less than 800 points means there's lots of opportunity to go either direction for Chiba right now. If he wasn't playing like crap, I'd be in glass is half full camp noting that he's got a chance to get an improved 500-event result next week, and only made the QF at Wimbledon so maybe he can improve that as well. Playing like he is though, I don't have much confidence in all that.

Brian Swartz

03-25-2019, 02:37 PM

June

Not much activity for me as the three youngest players all went to work on the practice courts. Sushant Chiba was top seed at Halle though, where he got a ringside seat to the Irish Power Duo sweeping both grass 500 titles. Chiba met up with Seamus Hughes in the semis after squeaking by Stachovsky in two tiebreaks, and Hughes notched a third straight win in their series 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-3. None have been in straight-sets, but it's still a trend. At least RG and here is back-to-back non-humiliating tournaments, and that's something new this year.

Also, Brian Meikeljohn has gone MIA. No events of any kind since Roland Garros, and that allowed Chiba to back his way into the #2 spot again. Everybody will be playing next week during Wimbledon - it's always a great chance to pick up challenger points at CH+ Braunschweig, so that's where Kasaravalli will be. Chittoor and Guha will make their futures debut as well, so there'll be new information there heading into the summer.

Christy

03-26-2019, 03:07 PM

Brian Meikeljohn is back and looking for his no. 2 spot again by the looks of things. Evidently had an alarm set for SW19.

Aas got upset in round 1 to another Swede. A grass specialist admittedly but I had been hoping he could chain enough good events just for a year after Rome. Aas should be decent on grass too. Not a big deal. I reckon a player of his mentality just couldn't handle all of the media pressure after his big win, poor chap.

The big reason I bring up his match is because of how it went. He faced a high mentality player and saved all 15 break points against him (and didn't convert any of his 6). 21 break points and 0 breaks. Grass is weird.

Brian Swartz

03-28-2019, 02:13 AM

Sure as heck did have that alarm set. Hughes - Meikeljohn for the Wimbledon title. Neither has won a Slam before. Anybody who was here last year has to be shocked, as both players lost in the third round. I don't wanna hear no complaining out of Hart either. I'll have more on this with the Race stuff hopefully in a day or two, but Meikeljohn is going back to #2 and Hughes could be as high as #3. Basically the 2-6 spots are going to be wacky for most of the rest of year I think.

Brian Swartz

03-29-2019, 01:34 AM

Q3 Rankings Update

1. John Hart(27, IRE) - 14,790

Emergency alert - Hart has lost twice in the span of two months after a SF defeat at Wimbledon to countryman Hughes. That drops him to merely 62-3 on the year. The group of players not-really-chasing him have all lost 7-14 matches though, so he just might be ok. I guess John will have to settle for only winning most of the big events this year.

2. Brian Meikeljohn(27, IND) - 8,845

After claiming his first Slam title at Wimbledon - the last place I expected his legendary footspeed to give him a breakthrough - there is no more debate about the top challenger spot. Consistency and whether he can close the gap at all with Hart (pretty doubtful) are now the only questions here. Meikeljohn is the best of the rest.

3. Sushant Chiba(29, SRI) - 6,890

Punctuating the worst year of his top-flight professional career, Chiba lost yet another match to an inferior opponent in the 4th round of Wimbledon. In straight sets. Having nearly-completely squandered the opportunity afforded by Prince Kaspar's early exit to doubles, Sushant may well drop further. He'll probably snap out of it and start playing somewhat better eventually - but it's already too late for that to matter much. Frankly the main goal now is just to stay in the Top 4 and stop losing to journeymen.

4. Seamus Hughes(27, IRE) - 6,400

After a disappointing year had him in 7th at the start of the year, Hughes made it to the final of Wimbledon, surprising his more well-known comrade from Ireland, and came up just short of getting a Slam title of his own. That has him up to a career-best of 4th, with Chiba in his sights next.

5. Barry Molyneaux(27, USA) - 6,190

Last year's USO champ has only a runner-up at Monte Carlo to show for this year, and hasn't really taken advantadge of that title. First-week exits at both RG and Wimbledon have him still in the weeds, and if lightning doesn't strike a second time at Flushing Meadows, the top American will no longer be a threat to move up at all.

6. Ali Solberg(25, SWE) - 5,760

A finalist at last year's Wimbledon, Solberg was somewhat less successful with a QF exit this time around. He's still the youngest of the scrum of players ranked 3rd-6th, and has made the final eight of almost every big event in the last 12 months. Ali is going to continue to be a force, but the challenge is to beat the other top players more consistently.

7. Isa Solheim(26, DEN) - 4,450

4th-round exits in the last two Slams didn't back up that SF run at the Australian very well, and Madrid/Rome were no better. Solheim is kind of sputtering right now.

8. Nicolas Perez(22, ARG) - 4,005

Perez has next whenever Hart decides to slow down, but the Rome finalist is not consistently good yet. He is also just 22, so merely being in the Top 10 is quite newsworthy. Even adequate showings at the rest of the Masters events this year will having him breathing on the necks of that 3rd-6th grouping if not fully joining them. Next year, he figures to leave them in the dust.

9. Mike Rhodes(27, PHI) - 3,710

The Walking Serve was runner-up at RG and has the Barcelona 500 title to his credit ... and little else. Good news is he's up from 11th last year, his first journey into the Top 10. Bad news is that with the clay season over, quality results will be hard to come by for a while.

10. Valery Stachovsky(26, RUS) - 3,445

Russia's top player exited in the first round at Wimbledon four straight years - until a breakthrough SF this season (l. Meikeljohn). IF he makes it to the WTF, his excellence on indoor courts will make him a major threat there. Catch is he has to do well enough on other surfaces to qualify.

11. Harald Balzer(26, SWE)

We may have seen the last of the meteoric Swede on the first page. He's a rare player who splits the court surfaces fairly evenly, meaning that clay and grass success are at a premium. He exited both channel Slams two rounds earlier this season than last, falling from 6th at the start of the year.

12. Srba Dogic(26, CRO)

Steady progress, up from 16th, as Dogic was a QF finisher at Indian Wells and claimed the Dubai 500. Disappointing third-round exits at the recent Slams though are holding him back.

13. Samuel Aas(25, SWE)

The shocking unseeded champion at the Rome Masters, Aas proceeded to lay an egg at Wimbledon in a first-round straight-set loss ... all tiebreaks! Still, that works out to a big move up from 21st. Hopefully will enough cracks at more beneficial draws he will continue that progression.

15. Tim de Jong(24, NLD)

Only up two spots this year, with a QF at RG and SF at Rome the key moments. He's really done nothing elsewhere, but that gets into the Top 16 seeded-everwhere group so it'll be interesting to see what that translates into over the second half of the campaign.

16. Fabrizio Abinati(26, ARG)

Abinati needed to make a big move on clay this year if he's was going to be more than he is. Instead he didn't get past the third round anywhere, and is down a spot from 15th at the start of the year. You gotta figure we've seen what we're going to see from his career.

17. Ollie Haas(23, NLD)

A close win over countryman de Jong got Haas to the 4th round of Wimbledon, where he eventually pushed Hart to four sets in the QFs. That pair is going to be rough in the WTC for the next few years. Ollie didn't even make the start-of-the-year rundown, because he was only ranked 34th. You might want to get used to his name.

20. Constantino Gonzoles(24, ARG)

QF results at MC and Rome, but Gonzoles is looking like one of those guys who is ever-dangerous but never quite gets there. He needs a breakthrough soon.

21. Clavet Moniotte(24, FRA)

Also just kind of hanging out.

22. Santino Belmon(23, ITA)

A clay-focused player and one of many who decided Chiba was too big for his britches this year. Belmon is up from 35th ... despite a QF showing at Canada last year. We'll see if he somehow duplicates that, but he got to the final eight at Wimbledon. Overall though, most of his best results came towards the end of last year, which isn't encouraging.

23. Chisulo Mpakati(21, ZIM)

Mpakati joins us from the ranks of the unknown, placing just 44th at the start of the year. Now he's the youngest player of elite standing, still having much of his points from challenges but also a Dubai(500) SF and Istanbul(250) title. I'm likely to be taking a closer look at the end of the year, by which time we'll get a better picture of just what kind of package he brings. Chisulo is already the highest-ranking Zimbabwian(??) in over a half-century.

25. Jose Luis Robredo(25, USA)

Robredo is listed here because he beat Chiba at Wimbledon, making the second week. Also just beat Balzer in a tournament taking place at press time, so that's a thing. 40th at the start of the year, so he's a late-developing American. Limited results at the 250s and none elsewhere, so I'm skeptical.

26. Emilien Mathou(24, FRA)

Up from 33rd, mostly on the strength of QF showings at MC and Queen's Club(500). Also made the Wimbledon 4th round, so there's a bit of momentum here. We'll see.

27. Guillermo Valturri(25, MEX)

32nd last year, was up to 21st, then fell a bit again. What's going on here? Well, the current Mexican no. 2 behind Campos(19th) continued success in 250s begun late last year, then made the SF at Acapulco (500). It hasn't translated into the big events though yet.

28. Patrick Sanchez(25, ARG)

Treading water it would seem.

31. Stefan Baloch(26, ITA)

Started the year 27th ... yeah there's nothing to see here right now.

34th-39th are all 22-24 years old. I don't see any reason to profile them yet, but just know there is a group of youngsters chomping at the bit right now. For the moment though, they are still Challenger players. And getting in the way of ...

70. Fabigo Cagide(19, ESP)

These guys often don't amount to much. Take Henriksson, who I think was the last teenage Top 100, at least that I bothered to notice. He peaked at 18th and is now struggling to stay out of the challenger ranks (32nd). Cagide turns 20 in two weeks, but I don't know that I've ever seen a teenager this high up. 134th is the next-highest-ranked U20. So let's just file away this Spaniard's name for mental safe-keeping.

61. Amrik Kasaravalli(23, SRI)

Been floating in the low-mid 60s all year with a high of 59th. At Braunschweig, the big CH+ that takes place during Wimbledon, he lost a year ago to Sweden's Algot Hakanson in the SF. This year the field was stronger, and that meeting took place a round sooner. Bad news is he lost again; good news is he pushed it to three sets instead of winning just four total games. In general Amrik is pushing closer to the bevy of strong top Challenger players. I think he's playing at about a Top-50 level right now and I'm beginning the schedule him accordingly; mostly singles-only, hitting the bigger challenger events, etc. It's time for him to try to make his move, but there's a lot of traffic.

71. Joao Narcisco(21, BRA)

Playing a mix of big events and Challengers, Narcisco has seen the business end of a number of CH2s. No titles yet, but a lot of QFs and a few betters. Gradual progress, up from 84th at the start of the year. A win over a qualifier at RG (l. 20th-seeded Geng in the next match) is a highlight.

775. Tommy Fitzpatrick(19, IRE)

Two futures events under his belt - one runner-up, one first-round exit - and a third currently underway. He continues to be somewhat ahead of Chittoor's pace, and ranks 2161st in doubles.

896. Rakesh Kayeeda(18, SRI)

Like Intodia, awaiting his first futures action.

917. Nasir Chittoor(18, SRI)

That first futures tournament ... well, it didn't go as planned. First qualifying hurdle in doubles? Failed, the first defeat for the Chittoor/Guha combo since juniors. I'm sure it won't be the last. Meanwhile Nasir also lost in the first-round, matched up against a 4-seed from China. Semi-competitive and it went three sets, but he won't be taking the futures level by storm.

935. Ritwik Intodia(18, SRI)

Out of the amateur ranks, but Intodia has yet to dib his toe into the futures waters.

1359(D). Satyajit Guha(18, SRI)

Nearing his 19th birthday, Guha continues to ascend doubles faster than singles - where he is ranked 2153rd. For his part, he won a single game in his first futures qualifying match. I need to get those doubles results going so these guys actually get a decent amount of experience and matches from their futures weeks. Gonna be a bit rough until that happens.

Brian Swartz

03-29-2019, 02:04 AM

Race To the World Tour Finals
Post-Wimbledon Edition

In

John Hart - 10,110
Brian Meikeljohn - 6,150

I'll be shocked if these two don't stay 1-2 through the year's end. Neither did jack at the USO last year, and I wouldn't bet on that continuing. I'm hoping against hope that our new second fiddle manages things well - I'd like to see what he can do with this position.

Probable

Ali Solberg - 4095
Seamus Hughes - 4065
Isa Solheim - 3290
Mike Rhodes - 3220

Right now, Solberg and Hughes are the clear choices to fill out the Top 4. The pride of Sweden is the tour's most consistent performer, while the brilliant grass results of Ireland's no. 2 gave him a Wimbledon final and the title in Halle to bolster his resume. That could be a very close race.

The second quartet to reach the WTF have a lot more work remaining for themselves. Solheim and Rhodes have the edge right now, but neither has particularly great prospects for adding to their totals, as both rely significantly on clay. Esp. Rhodes.

Contenders

Sushant Chiba - 2945
Barry Molyneaux - 2820
---------------------------
Nicolas Perez - 2760
Valery Stachovsky - 2575

Look at all this! Lest you think I've exaggerated Chiba's struggles, the player who has spent most of the year at #2 is in serious danger of not even qualifying. That would be a horrifying, humiliating turn of events, but it's far from out of the question. Rising young Perez will have plenty of chances to gain ground, Stachovsky's serve always makes him a threat and he could finish strong at Paris, while Molyneaux will have a partisan fan advantage at Cincinatti and the USO to make use of. You can make an argument for any two of this quartet to make it for sure.

I'm picking Perez and flip a coin between Molyneaux/Chiba. He is way too good not to make it ... but once again this stuff is going to happen if he doesn't pick up the pace, and now. He's still got seeding/draw preference to the rest of the group, which gives him the advantage for now. Obviously I'll try to grind it out for him with points from the smaller events - but he's got to not faceplant on those opportunities.

Long Shots

Harald Balzer - 2135
Tim de Jong - 2075
Ollie Haas - 1975
Samuel Aas - 1865

I have a hard time seeing any of these players break through the logjam ahead of them; the real drama is taking place between the contender quartet I expect.

Christy

03-29-2019, 05:56 AM

My pick is that Rhodes gets dragged back down into contender status by the US Open and eventually loses out.

Chiba, Molyneaux and Perez all make it in in some order.

I think Solheim will fix himself up a bit. He has a lot of points from the early year hard courts and so could slip back into that groove.

As for pushing up next year. Perez should manage that a bit through people falling off. He is still improving and getting a ton of xp (620-640 a week on average) but those skill jumps get pretty pricy fast.

Christy

03-29-2019, 09:19 AM

Not sure if you get notifications for this thread but if you do. Or happen to check it. Go schedule competitions for your players! Looks like you have forgotten

Christy

03-31-2019, 10:25 AM

So we have a bit more info before the Two Masters/ US Open.

Chiba/ Perez and Molyneaux all only managed semi final results. Not a disaster for any of them but not enough to really stick their hands up again. Feels tough for Perez, another match he deserved to win and indeed was serving for it at 1 point. Stachovsky was a little behind with a final appearance and makes up that ground. Balzar takes a step towards being relevant with a win in Germany. Still off the pace of the other contenders but potentially within striking distance of reaching with a good hard court season. I think the 4 contenders all missed a good chance in the 500s to really stick their necks out.

One other point is that your scores seem to include the points from the later rounds of the World Cup from last year. Out of the group in contention for spots Balzar is defending 50 points that won't happen. Molyneaux is defending 150 which he will probably make up most of. Perez and Stachovsky are not defending anything and can get some free points though Perez is probably more likely here to pick up a few with both sets of matches happening on clay. Chiba is not defending anything but won't be scoring more points that way.

On the lower probables:
Solheim was absent during the warm ups and stayed in practice. Surprising and may struggle for form if he gets a bad draw in Canada. Rhodes is also out of sorts having played 3 weeks in a row and wrecked although only 250s so does not add anything to his total. Even with another win. Going off the above calculations 5th - 10th are within about 500 hundred points of each other.

Brian Swartz

03-31-2019, 03:00 PM

Thanks for the warning - on the week I missed, it was just one of those brain fart things. I thought I had the tournaments set up, and had even done a couple training sessions in preparation for it. Happens to me a couple times a year usually - it's easy to miss stuff once in a while. As far as the WTC points, I don't worry about subtracting those out going in and checking all the players for when they lost the previous year, etc. That will all take care of itself as the calendar progresses this season.

August

Sushant Chiba played in the Washington 500 and lost in the semis as mentioned. He was lucky to get that far, needing a third-set TB in the quarters against Wentz who had beaten him early in the year. I went back and recalculated his rating to make sure nothing weird has happened. It's still up there at 8.57, a small decline from the 8.61 the start of the year. He's just not playing like it. Losing to Srba Dogic on a hard court is not a crime, but it's the first time he's lost in their matchups.

Amrik Kasaravalli got his first-ever big challenger win at CH+ Bogota, beating a couple of Top-50 players in the last rounds in close matches. He should be Top 50 himself by the time the next ratings supplement is released after the USO.

The younger players have mostly tripped and fallen over themselves. In two more futures outings they have yet to go anywhere in doubles, and Satyagit Guha is still winless in futures qualifying singles. Nasir Chittoor had a second straight bad-luck draw in his second attempt, drawing an American #1 seed at a tournament in the United States. Lost in three sets. The most recent try went better for him, as he won a few matches to reach the semifinals. Remarkably, Chittoor lost the first set in all four matches he played there, but came back three matchups in a row to win until his luck finally ran out. At least it was a decent tournament week for him, and he finally got a result to start moving up again. We're not really going to be happy about things until they start winning doubles matches again, but its a start.

Brian Swartz

03-31-2019, 11:53 PM

Chiba continues to do his darndest to achieve the greatest single-season collapse in modern pro tennis history, losing in the third round of Canada to unseeded Jorgen Henriksson, 7-6(8), 2-6, 7-5. Slightly better on the key match stats but didn't play well enough at the most important times. That's a disturbing pattern when your calling card is having a 4.4 mentality. This is frankly quite comical at this point. The door is not only being held open for the other contenders, but there's a big flashing neon sign displaying TAKE MY SPOT above the door as well. Meikeljohn, Hughes, and Solberg all out as well so there's quite a bit of chaos in the draw.

thehitcat

04-01-2019, 01:24 PM

Any Interest in creating a club amongst our Operations Sports brethren? Between Zorromorph, Christy, Britrock and me we have some pretty awesome firepower and other than Christy none of us are currently in a club. Perhaps we could even field a tourney for the dead period post-tour championship. Thoughts?

Brian Swartz

04-02-2019, 01:16 AM

My main question would be, since I've never done it, what do clubs do? I.e., what would be the reason for making one, what good does it do us if we decide to, etc?

Congratulations to the managers whose players aren't stinking it up: Hart beat Perez in three sets for the Canada title! Then it was off to Cincinatti … where Sushant Chiba lost in the third round to an unseeded player. AGAIN. Gonzoles this time, in dual tiebreaks. This one I just flat-out deserved to lose. The other players have done better the last couple of weeks and I'll get to that tomorrow, but egads. Chiba is now below 70% on the season.

Christy

04-02-2019, 03:55 AM

Perez has now faced players now ranked 1-7 14 times this season. Hart has accounted for 7 of them!
Still he has started running him closer on hard courts which is a good sign.

I get the feeling Chiba booked a holiday for the same week as the wtf and wants it off. He is sending out invites to other players at this point. Still he may be saved as no one wants that last spot. Stachovsky has gone out in r1 the last two weeks. None of the players in your long shot list took advantage of the chaos in Canada, generally going out to lower ranked players. Dogic was the exception and probably shouldn't be too harsh on himself going out to Hart!

That still leaves Chiba around 9th since Molyneaux and Perez have both done well but Rhodes has certainly not driven home his advantage and will likely slip further.

Perez did well in Canada alright. He got lucky with Jung upsetting Meiklejohn and being wrecked from a decent doubles run. Still Perez struggled against him and Rhodes when he shouldn't have before picking up a great performance vs Molyneaux.

Cincinnati was fine. Not much he can do about meeting Hart in the quarters. He tried anyway and came close but didn't manage it.

I have no idea what happens in a club. I joined one to find out and am none the wiser.

thehitcat

04-02-2019, 05:45 PM

law90026

04-02-2019, 05:56 PM

The one club I was in hosted a tourney at the end of the year (in the dead(er) period between the WTF and the first week of the new year. Other than that, and that's what I was suggesting as it would give us a place to play if we wanted to when others were idle. I don't know that there is much to do. Just a thought, if folks are interested I'll create it and we can join. If not no biggie :)

Yup pretty much what happened at one of the worlds I was in when I still played. It’s useful to maintain that match form during that dead period and it’s best of 5 sets so decent for experience. Especially helpful if some of the best players are in the club.

Brian Swartz

04-03-2019, 04:00 AM

Guh, I didn't know you could do that. I should have made a club and played my own players against each other. I'd be up for it if the others want.

Christy

04-03-2019, 04:48 AM

Indeed. I had presumed such competitions were just for fun with no form/exp benefit.

thehitcat

04-03-2019, 09:17 AM

What do we want to call the club. Ops Sports? Sri Lankan Devotees? Swartzhalle? No wait I've got it Anilophiles. The man who brought us all into this. I'll start it and then I'll put up the numbers here and two other folks need to put in the numbers. The three of us will then be founders and anyone else here can join.

thehitcat

04-03-2019, 09:18 AM

Here's the numeric code for Club Anilophiles. First two to add it are founders the rest can just join at that point.

6A4QKE

Christy

04-03-2019, 09:56 AM

I am in.

Interesting with the top 2 having little to no points to defend we could see a big shake up lower down with other players defending a lot of points across the board. Including Perez's biggest points defense yet.

I am also hoping his ranking bug goes away. It is in his favour (an extra competition is being counted) which I think is the game bugging out on his last challenger and counting it when it shouldn't.

His last challenger win times out this week so hopefully it will fix itself then.

britrock88

04-03-2019, 10:19 AM

Great idea, and thanks for extending the offer.

britrock88

04-03-2019, 10:21 AM

Re: Brian's summary on Narciso's progress above (I always appreciate the objective perspective), I'm probably being a bit too aggressive in trying to get Narciso some opportunities at 250s on clay. That said, there's a fair number of Brazilian challengers later in the calendar that will help buoy Joao's place going into next season, where perhaps a top 50-to-top 32 push will be in order.

britrock88

04-03-2019, 10:23 AM

A note on Pargeter while I'm here: while the Kaspar doubles duo is excelling as anticipated, I'm having trouble convincing Castegeli's manager, kirchoff, to play 500s. That has accelerated the points dropoff for Pargeter, though it seems likely that the partnership should still settle at 4th-ranked (if not 3rd with some good results) by season's end.

thehitcat

04-03-2019, 10:58 AM

And we have a club :) Here's the bit on club tournaments. Figure we'll plan it for sometime around Week 50-52 based on how people want to do it on here.

Club Tournaments
Here you can find the tournaments organised by your club. Only players from your club are allowed to enter club tournaments. They do not count for the ranking, but your players do get experience from playing in these tournaments. If a tournament gets less than 50% of the required number of participants it is cancelled. Players who registered for this tournament can then join another tournaments if they had multiple registrations. Senior tournaments with 16 or 32 participants play best of 5 sets.

Brian Swartz

04-03-2019, 03:30 PM

Summer Masters

Sushant Chiba is down to his last chance here basically. After tripping and faceplanting in Canada and Cincinatti, he is down to the 4th seed for the US Open, where he was runner-up last year. Solberg and Hughes, despite not playing as well lately themselves, are close behind. Chiba will not be a Top 4 player anymore if he doesn't make a big run here, and maybe even if he does. It'll matter little at that point if he makes the WTF by the skin of his teeth, because he won't accomplish much there, never has. So this is pretty much it if he wants to remain relevant at the top of the game - which, by all appearances, he couldn't care less about.

Amrik Kasaravalli is starting to make his move. Lost a fairly close final in CH1 Beijing to Matteus Ameen, who is become a bit of a rival and has become a long-term top Challenger player … but will he ever ascend above that? Anyway, Kasaravalli then won CH1 San Marino in the next week, his second-biggest title ever after the CH+ he won a few weeks ago. He's working his way into that elite challenger class, now firmly into the Top 50 at #46. It's hyper-competitive to get into the Top 32 right now with over 1500 pts required; just over 1k at the moment so there's still a lot of work to do and further progression will be very slow. He should definitely be among that best of the Challengers group in the Top 40 by year's end though if he keeps playing well. He'll be defending last year's title at CH2 Como during the USO.

Satyagit Guha had a tournament week without Nasir Chittoor, due to Chittoor having actually done something in that last futures event. So Guha won an Amateur for the first time. Then it was Nasir's turn, blasting his playing partner 6-1, 6-2 in an unfortunate first-round meeting at FT3 Ghana. He would go on to get his first futures title, 12 weeks earlier than any of my other players so he remains ahead of schedule despite the growing pains. There were a couple of fairly close matches, but he was able to get through them. We got a doubles win before losing in the quarters, so gradual progress there. Another win or so at this level will have Chittoor, who gains almost 200 spots in the rankings with this one, ready to move up a tier. Both players will get a few weeks off now.

Christy

04-04-2019, 03:59 PM

So the top 4 performing players of this year move onto the semi finals. Another frustrating loss for Perez. 3/4 slam losses this year he was the better returner than his opponent. I get his mentality is bad but 5/5 break points for Meiklejohn and 3/23 for Perez is just hard to look at. I really wonder how far it will hold him back. Still a missed opportunity but a solid result for now.

The missing generation is impressive in its absense. Still the only player to have won a masters or better under 27 years of age is Aas and I am not sure if he will manage to be in the top 32 after his Rome score times out. Solberg could still prove me wrong but so far it has been a victory for experience. A lot of really good players (and even going down the rankings there are good young players) but no one great standing up just yet.

Brian Swartz

04-05-2019, 02:51 AM

US Open

WTF hopefuls Stachovsky and Rhodes crashed out in the third round, basically proving Christy right and me wrong :P. Good call there. It looks like the Top 8 are going to stay who they are through the end of the year, though there's lots still to play. In fact, that group all made it to the quarterfinals. And then things got interesting.

Hart over countryman Seamus Hughes in a competitive but routine straight-sets affair; we've seen that movie before. Wimbledon was the only time in the last two years it's been a different result. Defending champ Molyneaux was down two sets to Isa Solheim, and then it was choke time. That would have been huge for the Dane who was already making his first appearance ever in the second week here. Just his third Slam QF ever, but he couldn't finish. Then it was Meikeljohn outlasting Nicolas Perez in the afore-mentioned catastrophe of BPs for the rising Argentine star. Perez actually does have average mentality, but Meikeljohn is very good in that category. Still, this is one of the more significant miscarriages of justice I've seen. The better player by a significant margin did not win on this day. I think speed has a lot to do with this result as well. The nigh-unaceable world no. 2 won that exchange 20-6, and that plays into the results on key points also. Makes him even tougher than the mental stats would suggest.

And then there was Sushant Chiba, going up against Ali Solberg. Could easily have lost in the previous round, where Chiba beat Srba Dogic, a semifinalist last year who he'd lost to recently, in four sets. It started off well, up a set and on serve midway through the 2nd set. And then Sushant remembered that he wasn't who he used to be. His serve went to shambles, and so did the match. A one-sided third set and a quick break to start the 4th had him all but dead. He attempted to rally at the end, staving off two match points with the Swede serving for the match and getting a break point of his own to get back on serve and try to force a 5th ... but from deuce Solberg finished off the match with back-to-back aces. 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4. And the overall numbers were not close at all. 44 to 24 in terms of return points won. After that first set and a half it was domination. Chiba waves goodbye to the top contenders.

In the semis, the expected coronation of John Hart, looking for the career grand slam, was once again derailed. Molyneaux shockingly straight-setted him, with two close tiebreaks. Clearly the partisan crowd was the difference-maker. The second one was an epic, Meikeljohn defeating Solberg 7-5 in the 5th of a match that could have gone to either player. In the final, he crushed the hopes of the Flushing Meadows faithful. The pride of India, Brian Meikeljohn has now won the last two Slam titles with a 7-5, 6-4, 7-6(1) decision, a year after being dismissed in round two if you can believe that. Pushed to five in the previous two rounds, this has to have Perez spitting fire at what could have been.

There'll be a big shakeup in the Top 10 when we look at the rankings, but the bottom line is that Chiba continues plummeting, Stachovsky and Rhodes are pretenders ... and Meikeljohn takes a big step closer to being a serious rival to Hart for the #1 spot. He's still got a long ways to go to close that gap, but this makes it SF or better at 10 of the 13 big events currently in his rankings. One of the outliers is the Australian Open, so if he starts next year off well we could potentially have a real fight on our hands at the top.

ETA: I'm kind of reaching for drama there a bit. Meikeljohn is aging faster than Hart, and it's a real long-shot that he ever truly gets close to #1. But when you've had the same guy on top for over two years, you look for what possibilities there are, and back-to-back Slams isn't nothing. NVM that he should have lost at least once along the way :).

Brian Swartz

04-05-2019, 04:09 PM

Race Rankings update will come later today. For now, there's this.

Q3 Rankings

1. John Hart(27, IRE) - 15,440

For a guy who's lost the last two Slam events, Hart is quite comfortable and still has an iron grip on the top spot. He has four Masters this year as well, and hasn't failed to reach QFs or better at any of the top tournaments. Not quite as dominant as I predicted, but there's no question who the best is. Early next year he'll start making his way into the Top 10 of players who have had the longest stay at the pinnacle of the sport. For all of my successes, I only have one player on that list - Prakash Mooljee is tied for 8th with Prince Karl 'First of his Name' Kaspar, and Hart is likely to surpass them. Sort of puts his excellence over the last couple of years into perspective. He's tied for 10th all-time right now with 10 Slam titles, ranks 8th in Masters shields, etc. John's already a third-tier great as he begins the decline phase of his career.

2. Brian Meikeljohn(27, IND) - 10,160

Also on the way down in terms of raw ability, but somebody forgot to tell him that. Or more accurately, he's been managed better this year than he was before. First two Slams of his career despite being on the downslope a bit. Meikeljohn now has put almost as distance between himself and the rest of the field as there is between himself and Hart. He's going to be #2 for a while, and the chance is there for him to close the gap and makes things more interesting.

3. Barry Molyneaux(27, USA) - 6,330

Didn't repeat at the USO, but beat the world no. 1 and got to the final so that's not nothing. Molyneaux has been consistently very good but no more than that for 3-4 years now. That puts him just ahead of a bevy of others.

4. Ali Solberg(26, SWE) - 5,750

Mr. Consistency takes advantadge of the struggles of others to sneak into the Top 4 for the first time. No big titles yet, but unlike the players still above him, he should still improve a bit more. Solberg should eventually make it even higher.

5. Seamus Hughes(28, IRE) - 5,640

Hanging out just behind Solberg, Hughes is poised to put pressure on him and take advantage of any slip-ups.

6. Isa Solheim(26, DEN) - 5,400

It was a good USO for Solheim who is now less than a thousand points out of the #3 spot. It could have been great without the collapse vs. Molyneaux, a win that would have eliminated that gap. Like Solberg, he has not yet reached his peak. Both of them continue to prepare for what could be a breakthrough, career-defining year next season.

7. Sushant Chiba(29, SRI) - 5,270

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Chiba may mount a rally at some point, but his ranking has finally caught up to the marginal Top-10 player he's been showing himself to be all year. It's just as likely that he keeps slipping.

8. Nicolas Perez(22, ARG) - 4,775

Fans have gotten disappointed by some of the close losses lately, but it's worth remembering that this phenom is over three years younger then the rest of the Top 10. He's close, and should start next year in the scrum of those ranked 3rd-8th, all of whom are going to be pretty close together it appears. Won't take much more for Nicolas to emerge from that group.

9. Mike Rhodes(27, PHI) - 3,710

The exact same point total as he had when last we looked.

10. Valery Stachovsky(27, RUS) - 3,575

Stachovsky has added a bit, but not enough to move up. Neither of them has impressed in the summer. .

12. Srba Dogic(23, CRO)

Made it as high as 9th, but was unable to recreate last year's breakthrough successes on his favored hardcourts. Still has a chance to re-insert himself in Shanghai, and is up from 16th last year but the surge appears to have stalled.

13. Samuel Aas(25, SWE)

Holding steady since that Rome success.

14. Tim de Jong(24, NLD)

15. Ollie Haas(23, NLD)

This Dutch pairing continues slow upward movement.

17. Chisulo Mpakati(22, ZIM)

Pushed Andrejova to five sets at the USO just after his first 250 title at Winston-Salem. He'd been close multiple times previously. Mpakati has not played any of the Masters, which I think is a mistake. We'll see if that changes whey become 'mandatory' for him next year.

18. Constantino Gonzoles(25, ARG)

Another slow riser.

20. Emilien Mathious(24, FRA)

Up a few more spots the last few months. Made the QFs in Canada, but also stopped at that same stage in a couple of 250s.

21. Guillermo Valturri(25, MEX)

Also continuing to move up. Finalist at the Los Cabos 250, and got through to the 4th round at the USO.

24. Jose Luis Robredo(24, USA)

25. Il-Sung Jung(23, KOR)

Making his first appearance in our rundown thanks to a pair of strong recent results. QF in Canada adds to the one he had in Miami earlier in the year, and beat Rhodes to reach the fourth round at the US Open. Looks like he'll be worth watching.

26. Patrick Sanchez(25, ARG)

Treading water along with Robredo and others.

27. Clavet Moniotte(24, FRA)

Moniotte on the other hand is headed the wrong direction, and in danger of dropping back to the Challengers.

28. Santino Belmon(23, ITA)

Also diving after a promising spring.

29. William Todhunter(24, AUS)

Ameen's doubles partner, and recently up from the Challenger ranks. Todhunter was just 58th at the start of the year, so his rise hasn't been subtle - he's cut the number of players above him in half in less than a year.

32. Stefan Baloch(26, ITA)

Just barely hanging on here, and eventually even that will be too much for him.

46. Amrik Kasaravalli(23, SRI)

Kasaravalli is about 450-500 points shy of what he needs to move up, so he's now searching out the biggest Challenger events regardless of competition. He's close enough to give him a chance against anybody who hasn't yet made the jump. Sometime next year it'll happen for him - the question is just when, and that depends on how consistently he's able to be the last man standing.

70. Joao Narcisco(21, BRA)

Won CH3 Brasilia, and reached the QFs at three big ones. Overall, Narcisco is treading water right now. CH2 Campinas, in his home country next week, might provide another opportunity for a boost ...

101. Claudio Altichiero(19, ITA)

Cagide has now turned 20 and is up slightly to 64th. But this guy here ... he's not even halfway to turning 20 and knocking on the door. The top youngsters just keep on coming. Feels to me like the tour is getting more competitive.

513. Tommy Fitzpatrick(19, IRE)

Fitz continues to lead the pack of ex-juniors. His futures results now include one title, two runner-up finishes, and a SF. He's kept himself busy, but now seems to be taking a breather for practice.

655. Nasir Chittoor(18, SRI)

One futures event under his belt, he'll take a crack at another soon. Might be ready to move up to FT2 soon, but Guha is not and the pairing isn't ready in doubles yet either. So for now, he'll take another tournament or two in FT3. There's no harm in being patient so long as practice continues to be profitable, and Chittoor is taking his medicine at least as often as not right now. If anything, he's slightly overranked - seems to be playing at a level of around 700th-800th.

842. Ritwik Intodia(18, SRI)

Made it to a futures semi recently, and is the 2-seed in another event this week. I expect Intodia to grab his first title at this level soon.

865. Rakesh Kayeeda(18, SRI)

One futures QF to his credit so far. Also gradually working his way up.

1309(D). Satyajit Guha(19, SRI)

Guha's singles ranking is climbing, but still in the 1500s so it's somewhat behind his doubles yet. That boost is due to him getting his first Amateur title.

Brian Swartz

04-05-2019, 06:05 PM

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-USO Edition

In

John Hart - 12,190
Brian Meikeljohn - 8,600

These two are still the only sure things, having split the year's Slams between them.

Probable

Barry Molyneaux - 5540
Ali Solberg - 5255
Seamus Hughes - 5145
Isa Solheim - 4610
Nicolas Perez - 4080

Molyneaux, Solberg, and Hughes are all going to qualify. I could have put them as 'In', but I wait until a player hits 6k points or is mathematically certain to do that ... and they aren't quite there yet. They will be though. Solheim is nearly as certain, and Perez now has a cushion between himself and the bubble. I'd be very surprised if this group didn't all qualify. That leaves only one spot. More interesting though is 3-6 being within a thousand points. The question of reshuffling that group is probably the most compelling for the rest of the year.

Contenders

Sushant Chiba - 3655
--------------------
Mike Rhodes - 3605

Only a decent USO run has Chiba, who it must be said again was #2 at the start of the year, narrowly ahead here. He's definitely got the edge over Rhodes, but could still lose it if he doesn't get one more acceptable showing out of either Shanghai or Paris. I don't see anyone other than Rhodes, and probably not even him, upsetting things at this point though. Despite how close this comparison is, the Top 8 seem set.

Long Shots

Valery Stachovsky - 2895
Harald Balzer - 2815

Stachovsky should do well in Paris, but is too far back for that to matter if he doesn't manage something good between now and then.

Christy

04-06-2019, 04:56 PM

Stachovsky seemed to go out of his way to prove me right with first round exits in both summer masters.

Some frustrating losses but it is good to be in this position. Especially as Perez is up from 19th at the start of the year and 76th at the start of the year before. He has a good chance to finish 7th at the expense of Chiba. It is looking like he might not bother play a final 500. 7th/8th doesn't make a massive difference so he won't push it if he has no real need.

He is still getting the benefit of the ranking bug but won't have enough competitions to help by the end of the year.

You got Intodia's first futures title coming soon right.

Chiba might rally but you feel it has to happen before the Australian open points go away unfortunately.

20,000 points down from the top club so it will take a bit of work to climb up.

Brian Swartz

04-09-2019, 02:42 AM

Should have a more sensible overview of how my players did during the last month tomorrow, but Chiba just won four matches or more in back-to-back tournaments for the first time all year, as he's made the China Open final. It was just the second time this year that he even won three matches in back-to-back tournaments. It was courtesy of some upsets - there've been a lot this week in both 500s - but so what. I'm taking it as a sign of not sucking as much.

Brian Swartz

04-09-2019, 05:13 PM

October

Sushant Chiba won his first tournament in nearly a year, defeating Molyneaux 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(3) to take the China Open(500). That should go a long way towards cementing him for the WTF. It'll take a strong performance at the Shanghai Masters this week to keep him in contact with those above him though, as he was a finalist last year. Japan was won by Isa Solheim, who moves up to career-best 4th. We'll see if that lasts … I have my doubts.

Amrik Kasaravalli took several weeks in a row off to train. While the top players are dueling in the final hardcourt masters of the year, he's beginning the big year-end Challenger push. For the next seven weeks he'll be playing more often than not, hoping to close the points gap and get closer to the Top 32. How well he does in this stretch will determine how much more remains to be done next year.

Nasir Chittoor won both singles and, more narrowly, doubles in a FT3 event in the Ukraine a couple of weeks back. Last week's practice wasn't stellar, so if that continues he'll be back on the court sooner than later and moving up to the FT2 level. Satyagit Guha lost in the second qualifying round in that event, but the doubles title moved both players into the Top 1000 in the pairs competition. They're looking good enough now that, over the course of the coming months, I expect them to move up enough to be Sri Lanka's standard bearers for doubles in the WTC. Right now they are 6th and 7th nationally, but there's nobody ranked within the Top 300 in doubles and only two better than 500th. Continued futures success would make that happen probably by the end of group play next season.

3rd-7th are separated by just 440 points going into Shanghai. Of course those players have varying amounts of points to defend, but there's quite a bit of potential for another shakeup. And afterwards I'll take another look at the Race as well.

Christy

04-10-2019, 10:10 AM

Well that went alright. Made a mistake with Aas. Had not realised I had him signed up for another 500. Ah well, nice to see him show signs of life with that 250 win after some pretty poor results.

Perez was saving himself for Shanghai and really showed a powerful serve. He had a comfortable enough win against Haas and managed to deny Molyneaux a single break point in the quarter final! Dominated on his own serve and decent on the return.

His match vs Hart have all gone the distance recently and this one was no different. Well it was finally a little different in that Perez managed to sneak out the win on the other side to reach his 3rd masters final of the year.

There he met another surprise finalist in Dogic making a late (probably too late push). Again Perez was dominant on serve. He won 5 service games to love in the opening set, losing 2 in the final game. He only managed to break once but it was enough.

The second set things were a bit more even but he managed to win enough return points for his first masters shield and second professional title!

Dogic had a great competition as well going through Meiklejohn, Solberg and Solheim in a tough route to the final. I noticed in the final set tie break Solberg had 3 match points against him and still lost (Solberg managing to double fault on the only match point on his own serve).

Chiba sent notice to Brian that the last few weeks were not a sign of revitalisation with a second round loss to another aging player.

Brian Swartz

04-10-2019, 02:34 PM

Shanghai

Not only did Chiba lose his first match, he got flat-out embarassed by Jacek Andrejova. Who was the top unseeded player in the draw, but still. 6-2, 6-3, and it was every inch that ugly. So yeah.

Amrik Kasaravalli had to go three sets in the last two rounds, but won another challenger in CH1 Rennes. He'll look to take advantadge of the incompetence around him in CH+ Orleans this week, seeded 4th ... but the top 3 are all overplayed and will not be close to their best by the time he would meet them. I think the odds are strong for another trophy.

With Perez breaking through for his first Shield, 3rd-7th are still close together. They just don't involve the same players.

Brian Swartz

04-10-2019, 03:09 PM

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-Shanghai Edition

In - 5020 points required to qualify

John Hart - 12,550
Brian Meikeljohn - 8,780
Barry Molyneaux - 5,920
Isa Solheim - 5,340
Ali Solberg - 5,330
Nicolas Perez - 5,280

Four more players join the field, leaving just two remaining outstanding. Your guess is as good as mine how 4-6 finish. The Shanghai title leaves open the possibility that Nicolas Perez could be Top 4 going into next year - that would be huge for accelerating his climb. It's more than close enough to make the chance of a ranking calculation bug screwing things up a live concern.

Probable

Seamus Hughes - 4925
Sushant Chiba - 4120

Hughes is all but certain, and even if Chiba returns to full-time throwing up all over himself the rest of the way, which is entirely possible, he's still a strong favorite for that final spot.

Contenders

none

Long Shots

Mike Rhodes - 3490
Srba Dogic - 3340
Valery Stachovsky - 3305

Stachovsky's status as an indoor specialist gives him the best chance, but it's still very much a remote one esp. given how he has played lately. Anybody here would pretty much need to win one of the 500s and then go deep at Paris. Possible, but highly unlikely.

Brian Swartz

04-11-2019, 12:49 AM

Ok so, Orleans CH+ has the top four seeds in the semifinals. I find this situation amusing:

1) Harald Wentz - AUS, 22. Wentz is a monster at this level. He's kind of scary period. 4.5 skill, 4.2 serve, 4.1 talent, 4.6 endur, 3.6 str, 4.0 spd, 2.8 mentality. Won't peak for like three years. Normally he'd crush

4) Amrik Kasaravalli - me - like a bug. Except that his form is 34.7. Mine is in the sweet spot. That works out to an advantage of 0.6/0.6, or 0.88 on the rating scale, which is MASSIVE. If Wentz wasn't being overscheduled to the point of felonious misconduct, he wouldn't be a challenge player anymore. I want to scream and slap his manager - who is 13th, just ahead of me - into the middle of next week. But instead I'm a nearly prohibitive favorite to steal this tournament instead of the odds being the other way around. Thanks for the cheap 125 points, assuming I don't blow this.

2) Bruno Niedzwicki - 28, POL. Well past his prime but a talented player with elite strength. And 31.2 form for the semis. He'd be favored over Amrik if he wasn't tired.

3) Kamil Smok - 27, POL. 4.5 talent, slightly better technique than my charge and slightly worse athleticism - woudl be a good match. Except he'll be at 31.4 form. So whoever makes it to the final is going to be even more fatigued.

These guys just shot themselves in the foot with a double-barreled shotgun, then reloaded and fired again.

Brian Swartz

04-12-2019, 06:54 PM

Sushant Chiba did everything he could to avoid qualifying for the WTF, losing in the first round of the Swiss Indoors 500 to Spaniard Calisto Aviles - ranked all of 48th - by a 6-3, 6-4 count. The only player to take advantage of this was Srba Dogic, who made the final but was thankfully beaten there by Balzer.

Race Standings

So Seamus Hughes is in. One more spot to fill, and here's how that looks going into Paris.

Sushant Chiba - 4120
--------------------------------
Srba Dogic - 3640
Mike Rhodes - 3490
Harald Balzer - 3175

If Dogic had won the Swiss Indoors, he would be just 280 points behind. Which probably would still have been too much.

Stachovsky is at 3125, meaning even if he won the title - he made the QF last year, his only Masters appearance that far on record - Chiba would get 10 pts for merely showing up and that would keep him five points ahead. Rhodes and Balzer would each need to win the tournament in order to catch Chiba, a remote possibility. Dogic would only have to reach the final. On his end, Sushant needs to reach the final in order to guarantee the final spot. If he loses in the semi, Dogic could win the trophy and still beat him. All of which boils down to basically waiting for our three technically-still-alive longshots to lose. As soon as they do, my embarassing vet backs his way in for one last hurrah. His impressive record of futility at the WTF - five straight appearances, all ending in a round-robin exit - has I'd say over a 99% chance of being extended.

Elsewhere ...

Orleans did indeed go to Amrik Kasaravalli, who edged Wentz and then had an easier time in the final. He took a week off, and then entered CH2 Charlottesville, which has by far the weakest field for some reason of this week's four CH2 events. Only one other player in the Top 100, so he should be able to waltz through. Nasir Chittoor and Satyagit Guha took more time to train, but that's about to end. Chittoor was getting 'meh' results from practice, and I thought about throwing him back out into a tournament early. I decided against it because that would mean moving up a level and then possibly reaching the final in suboptimal form, resulting in more chance of losing. So instead I put him out for more practice on his weaker surfaces. Results that way have been better, but not great. Both of my youngsters are now facing a problem of being underranked and need to get more points and boost their competition. Guha is playing an amateur this week to do that - singles only as his doubles ranking is too high, but he's not good enough to handle futures-level singles opponents. Then we'll make the jump to a FT2 event the following week, and see what shakes out after that.

I'll track the Paris results today as long as it is relevant to the Race.

Brian Swartz

04-12-2019, 07:44 PM

So Chiba now has a four-match losing streak. Qualifier Algot Hakanson(SWE) bumped him out at the first hurdle, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-4. I suppose I should be happy he even bothered to put up a fight. Meanwhile, Srba Dogic lost to Abinati, 6-3, 7-6(6). That should all but seal it.

Balzer and Rhodes both won, and are technically still alive. Rhodes will likely be playing Perez which should be the end of that, but Balzer goes up against Hakanson so he could well advance to the quarters, dragging this out.

Brian Swartz

04-13-2019, 12:48 AM

The plot stinkens in the third round of Paris. Rhodes upset Nicolas Perez, 1-6, 6-3, 6-4, while Balzer defeated Hakanson in straight sets. Both are still highly unlikely to prevail, but this book is far from closed. Esp. with the upsets elsewhere. Rhodes will face (13) de Jong and Balzer goes up against (15) Samuel Aas, who beat Meikeljohn and is trying to go for a repeat of his Rome shocker. It would get tougher after that if either of them keep going, but while four of the top six seeds made the QFs the rest is a hodgepodge and another round would start to be too close for comfort.

Brian Swartz

04-13-2019, 04:50 AM

The quarterfinals ended all chance of drama, and put Chiba officially in the WTF field. The last four are Hart(big surprise there), Molyneaux … and also de Jong and Aas. That last pair beat Rhodes/Balzer by nearly identical 6-4, 7-6 scorelines.

Brian Swartz

04-16-2019, 12:02 AM

Somebody snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. AGAIN. I'll give you three guesses who, but you'll only need one.

At the World Tour Finals in San Jose, California, USA, where they would never hold an indoor tennis tournament except under pain of death, this happened. Sushant Chiba got that win he didn't expect right away in the opener, defeating world no. 2 Meikeljohn 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-6(5). Had his chances to blow it, but didn't. Made up for it by losing to Perez 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3) in the next match, and then straight-setted by Molyneaux. So once again he loses out in the round-robin. This group also featured a cross-table with two BMs. There are two jokes there.

In any case, the two Irish twits, Perez, and Molyneaux are your semifinalists. My math says Perez needs to beat Hart - GL with that - in his matchup to get into the year-end Top 4. Otherwhise he'll still be behind Solberg. 4-7 could still finish in multiple orders, 1-3 is going to be Hart/Meikeljohn/Molyneaux barring something weird, and Chiba at 8 is set in stone.

Sushant Chiba: The Lost Year

Let's play 'what in the name of the bouncy yellow ball just happened'. Win-loss records since he went full-time pro:

'58: 58-15
'59: 59-19
'60: 62-23
'61: 72-15
'62: 75-14
'63: 67-16
'64: 77-18
'65: 46-22

The year after his best year, he has his worst. By, like a mile. He didn't just lose a step, he took a freaking header off a cliff, accelerating himself into the ground with a jetpack. This difference is almost completely not to be found in his ratings. He just sucked.

Ahh well.

Christy

04-16-2019, 08:04 AM

Ran Hart closer than I expected. Plus getting to the semi final of an indoor court competition is a surprise. Next year the goal is obviously top 4 and put as much pressure on the top guys as possible. Make them beat Perez. He is 12-10 vs the rest of the current top 8 this year which is even better when you consider 2-7 of that is vs Hart ). He can beat the rest and he can steal the odd match off of Hart.

Aas could well get fired after this season. I want to give him a chance to defend his points but I will need a new trainer eventually.

On the one hand it is hard to see Chiba staying in the top 8 for long past the Australian Open. However he still ends up being one hell of a banana skin to have lying around the top 16.

Brian Swartz

04-16-2019, 04:17 PM

I'm going to go with third as my prediction for Perez next year. Wouldn't shock me to see him be #2, probably depends on how the draws work out and how often he ends up on Hart's side. I figure you're due for some better luck on that front. And you're right about Chiba, who figures to be reduced to the role of gatekeeper, esp. after the AO.

4. Solberg - 5870
5. Perez - 5620
6. Solheim - 5480
7. Hughes - 5460

We've decided nothing here yet, but I think Perez's first big success next year gives him the #4 and the other three are milling about in 5-7. At that point it won't really matter who is there. Molyneaux reaching the WTF Final ensured he'll be a significant part of next season, and makes him harder for these guys to catch. Meanwhile Meikeljohn doing jack diddly squat means the pack caught up to him some, and he missed a chance to close that big gap on Hart.

Amrik Kasaravalli lost to a blast from the past, Uglesa Svajnovic, in the QFs of one of the year-end Challengers. Two tiebreak sets, close match. Then he finished it up with the title at CH+ Helsinki. Needed a final-set breaker against an unseeded opponent in the final, but got it done. All of that ends up with him being one good tournament away from graduating. 31-33 are all about 50 points ahead, with Amrik 34th.

Changed my mind and sent Chittoor/Guha out for another FT3, due to the fact that he could still gain almost 100 spots by winning. Nasir Chittoor took the dual titles, but is still having poorish practice results so I've got him out there again this week - without Guha - in a singles-only FT2. I'll keep playing him in only singles until his ranking catches up with his skills. It's a weird dance at this point of futures, as due to AI scheduling there are a lot of players down here who are rather wildly over-ranked and more who are underranked, so you can't really tell by that how good they are. Satyagit Guha's last two singles outings were underwhelming - lost in the first round of the futures, and QFs of an amateur. So he's creeping along but that's about it. And the amateur doubles points are starting to come off the rankings, complicating the duo's efforts to rise up to join the national team.

Coming Up ...

Won't be a whole lot else to say until the Anil Cup and the year-end rankings come around.

thehitcat

04-17-2019, 07:02 AM

Hey Brian, sign your guys up for the Anilcup :) Our lonely eyes turn to you.

Your pal,
Boss of the Irish Twits :lol: :D

Brian Swartz

04-18-2019, 12:34 AM

I'll sign up … when I'm darned good and ready. And not a second before. :D

Brian Swartz

04-18-2019, 03:13 AM

The Quest for 8.9 Continues
Age 19 Comparison

Forgot about this. Our hero - well mine really, ya'll have a vested interest in him failing in a number of cases - recently turned 19 years of age.

** Prakash Mooljee - 80/53/1
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 79/55/0
** Sushant Chiba - 78/56/2
** Amrik Kasaravalli - 73/57/0
** Satyagit Guha - 59/47/79
** Nasir Chittoor - 77/60/0

Satyagit Guha probably takes 2-3 years more to max out his doubles, and will continue to fall behind further in the meantime. Also, by this point in Kasaravalli's career it was really starting to become clear that he wasn't going to be able to keep up the normal pace. The top three are closer, with Dudwadkar slightly ahead of Mooljee/Chiba.

Nasir Chittoor is where he was at 18 - a nose in front but not by that much. I figure him to be 1.5k to 2k points of experience better than Dudwadkar, an amount that is very slowly increasing. It's not a huge difference, and the next couple years or so will be telling in whether he can extend that at all. My best guess is that it slowly grows and he stays about one skill train ahead, but it depends on a lot of things not all of which are in my control. I'll need to do a little better to reach 8.9.

I'm also looking forward to future battles with Tommy Fitzpatrick in particular. That's nothing against anyone else's players but Fitzpatrick is superior to Chittoor but also 7 months older. If neither of us massively screws up, there could be the best high-level #1 vs. #2 battle between those two that I've seen in this game when they reach their peak 7-8 years from now. A lot of time and there may well be other rivals I don't know about … but both should reach the 8.85 range or higher. Being so close in age, they wouldn't just be passing each other by like Perez and Hart will be doing soon, one ascending and the other descending. Unlike Iglar-Mehul or Kaspar-Chiba, it would likely be close enough not to be completely one-sided. So I'm definitely really looking forward to that rivalry materializing. Won't be much of a thing until we get to at least the upper Challenger echelons, so it's more of a long-distance thing ATM.

Also, I'm going to be using the list of players in our growing club - a good use of the thing even if it ends up being good for nothing else - as a supplement in the 'make sure you mention these players' when I do the regular ranking lists. Already some new names in their to look at, so for those among the Anilophiles, I'll make sure all of your players that aren't clearly over the hill end up featuring.

Chas in Cinti

04-18-2019, 10:29 AM

Still following and enjoying... interested to see the next wave...

Brian Swartz

04-19-2019, 04:50 PM

2066 National Rankings

1. Ireland - 2718
2. Argentina - 2244
3. France - 2134
4. Sri Lanka - 2128
5. Italy - 2089
6. Spain - 2033
7. United States - 2024
8. Spain - 1974
9. Sweden - 1969
10. Thailand - 1956

Ireland is the world champion four years running, tying Sri Lanka's record. Not that I'm bitter or anything, but somebody better beat them next year (unlikely). Sri Lanka is on the verge of becoming Just Another Nation.

Playoff Results

** Mexico beat Croatia 3-2 to keep both nations right where they were.
** L2 runner-up Poland lucked into a match with Great Britain another L2 country, and won 4-1. With a pair of singles players at around 40th, they have a chance of staying up this time.
** 8th-ranked Czech Republic stays up, relegating Serbia 3-2.
** Thailand is relegated 5-0 by Morocco, as the two of them switch places and Hamal Sbai gets to play in the top tier again next year. Both are in the too good for L2, not good enough for L1 category.

Group 3 next year along with Sweden(9th), Poland(19th), and India(22nd). Sweden's probably an automatic loss and we have them first. Poland should be an easy win, so it figures to come down to India. To beat them, we need to sweep the matches, including doubles which we suck at, that Meikeljohn isn't involved in. I think we probably finish third ahead of Poland but behind the other two, and once again fail to get out of the group.

Brian Swartz

04-20-2019, 05:33 AM

Inaugural Anil Cup

Shocking absolutely no-one, John Hart is the champion of our club in addition to the world at large after a 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(6) win over Nicolas Perez. Sushant Chiba actually gave him the closest match in the semis, but still lost in three. 2-seeds Sbai/Brunn won the doubles over #1s Pargeter/Aas. And so another year is completed.

Brian Swartz

04-20-2019, 06:40 AM

2066 Player Rankings

Technically there are a couple days left in '65 as I write this. However, the weekend isn't a real good point for me time-wise, and the rankings won't change at all so here we go.

1. John Hart(28, IRE) - 14,800

Hart didn't do quite as well as I thought, having 'merely' a typical dominant #1 season with six losses again, 2 Slams, the WTF, and 5 more Masters. Depending on how the next couple of years go, he seems destined to be either the best of the tier-3 or the worst of the tier-2 all-time greats in terms of career accomplishments. Either way, probably 7th overall in the history of the sport or a once-a-decade at worst kind of player. Maybe he took advantadge of a weak era, but timing matters as much as anything so we're not holding that against him.

2. Brian Meikeljohn(27, IND) - 8,870

The oft-mismanaged lighting bolt had only a single WTF crown and no Slams in the spring, having lost in the first week of three consecutive Slams. Then he made the RG semis, and claimed the trophy at Wimbledon and the USO. These successes vaulted Meikeljohn into the top challenge spot, and ensured that he wouldn't be remembered as a total flake. It's anybody's guess how well he follows those up in the new year though. This season's flop at the tour finals wasn't encouraging.

3. Barry Molyneaux(27, USA) - 7,100

Head of the weakest crop of American players possibly ever, Molyneaux was a solid, dependable #3 almost all year.

4. Ali Solberg(26, SWE) - 5,860

A bit younger than the other top players, Solberg has earned a reputation as Mr. Consistency. This is a career high ranking for him, but I don't think he'll hold it long.

5. Nicolas Perez(23, ARG) - 5,620

It's no longer a secret that Perez is to be the next #1 after Hart. This year he figures to continue that upward push, and will be favored against the other contenders most of the time instead of just being one of them. Nicolas has probably three more years of improving ahead of him. Athleticism is only average at best, but he's already got a quality serve and a baseline game the equal of some of the best to ever play. Rising sharply from 19th a year ago, there's no reason to think he won't keep moving up. I'm picking him for #3 next season.

6. Isa Solheim(26, DEN) - 5,540

A brief stint at #4, but slipping to a very competitive 6th isn't bad at all when you began the year at 10th. The pride of Denmark figures to stay about here, maybe a spot higher, maybe one lower.

7. Seamus Hughes(28, IRE) - 5,510

690 points better than a year ago, and a bounce-back year overall to roughly equal his best from '73; he was 62-19. Still, Hughes stays ... barely ... at the same spot in the pecking order. Due to age, I have to figure he remains here. Getting past the younger Solberg/Solheim is far from impossible, but probably unlikely. He's still a fine player though who can be a threat to anyone on his best day.

8. Sushant Chiba(29, SRI) - 4,250

Winner of the Golden Turd Award for the greatest single-season collapse by a top player. I have no reason to replace him so he'll just keep soldiering on, but Chiba looks ripe to slip out of the Top 8 early and just make a general nuisance of himself now. He'll pull off some upsets I'm sure, but definitely more spoiler than favorite. Four career Slams ties him for third with Girsh among Sri Lanka players, but 7 Masters titles is the lowest among my five. Add it up and he ranks 4th on the Legends listing, above Dudwadkar but behind the rest. Most notably, he's the first one never to reach #1.

9. Mike Rhodes(27, PHI) - 3,680

The Walking Serve slid up a couple spots from 11th mostly by not being mismanaged as much. Emphasis on the 'as much'. He's still a one-trick pony who is hard pressed to succeed off of his favored clay.

10. Srba Dogic(24, CRO) - 3,630

Right now, Dogic is the closest thing Perez has to a generational rival. And he's not close at all, but a steady rise continued with him up from 16th a year ago. Should at least be able to be the last member of the Tour Finals group, replacing Chiba.

11. Harald Balzer(26, SWE)

Balzer was 6th last year, his career best. A meteoric player now over the hill, I mention him here only because the decline of a former solid Top-10 player is worthy of note. Wave to him as he fades away.

13. Tim de Jong(24, NLD)

de Jong is best positioned if you are looking for a new face to crack the first page. QF at RG, two Masters semis for him. Per usual for improving youngish players, he needs more consistent results.

14. Samuel Aas(25, SWE)

Two first-round defeats in Slams, and first-week exits at all of them. Also won Rome and made the Paris final. If you can explain that, you're a better man than I.

15. Ollie Haas(23, NLD)

Haas is the surprise player of the year. A season ago he was trying to break out of Challengers. He succeeded, to put it mildly, and now is another maturing force to be reckoned with.

17. Gullermo Valturri(25, MEX)

Last year, as he was 32nd, I said 'we'll see if he sticks'. I, uh, missed the boat here a little. Valturri is a late-developer, but probably has at least a couple of years to give in the teens.

18. Emilien Mathou(24, FRA)

Yet another guy who was Challenger last year and virtually halved his ranking.

19. Chisulo Mpakati(22, ZIM)

44th a year ago. This swath of new Top-20 faces will be interesting to watch. Even moreso when they are as young as Mpakati.

20. Constantino Gonzoles(25, ARG)

Treading water.

21. Clavet Moniotte(24, FRA)

Ditto.

22. Jose Luis Robredo(25, USA)

Looked like he might be something most of the year ... but hasn't played since the US Open. Likely to be another abandoned player.

25. Acke Kjaerstad(22, SWE)

Kjaerstad wasn't even a particuarly good Challenger player - ranked 60th - at this time last year. That level of increase makes him one to watch. Fairly credible 250/500 results, but nothing to note in the big events. Yet.

26. Il-Sung Jung(23, KOR)

A more modest rise from 36th. QF showings in Miami/Canada were pretty much all of that, so ... we'll see.

27. Santino Belmon(24, ITA)

35th last year, so another gradually improving newbie.

30. Algot Hakanson(24, SWE)

A foil to Kasaravalli in the Challengers, so he wasn't sad to see this Swede 'promote'.

31. William Todhunter(24, AU)

NOT 'AUS' as I often mistake it. Todhunter is from Australia, not Austria. Up from 58th, so he's newcomer number umpteen.

A couple of others, including the previously mentioned Matteus Ameen, fell just back out after the WTC Playoffs. Five of the next six spots in the rankings are players 25 and younger. There's a truly STUPID amount of good improving players right now - but as has been noted, we're still short on high-end prodigies.

37. Amrik Kasaravalli(23, SRI)

Spent most of the year in the 60s before a late surge. An early event or two will be absolutely vital in his push to be seeded at the Australian Open. If not though, it will almost certainly happen by spring for IW/Miami. Amrik is coming up. Finally.

70. Joao Narciso(21, BRA)

That hoped-for late-season surge didn't happen. Narciso, a clay-heavy player, is still somewhat up from last year's 89th placing, and is young enough to still be at his physical peak. Just needs more time.

203. Marcel Bonner(24, DEU)

Bonner is under-ranked due to entering tournaments above his class - masters and 250s for a good amount of them. He's also a guy who doesn't seem to value the serve, or know whether he wants to be singles or doubles. As such, it's difficult to predict much aside from the unpredictable.

283. Tommy Fitzpatrick(19, IRE)

Three futures titles now, two at the middle tier. All of our batch of late-teens budding stars are pushing upwards towards the Challenger ranks, but Fitzpatrick is definitely ahead of the rest.

384. Nasir Chittoor(19, SRI)

Last time out, Chittoor faced two of the elite-skill, no-serve types so prevalent in futures. He beat one of them, but lost to the other in his first FT2 final. It still boosted him enough to where his practice results are better - even the wins are usually very competitive so I can relax his schedule again. There's a constant tension there. He's in the 'good futures player' class, but still very much a futures player.

437. Ritwik Intodia(19, SRI)

A pair of FT3 titles but, like Chittoor, is still searching for his first FT2 crown.

553. Rakesh Kayeeda(19, SRI)

Got his first futures tournament win a few weeks ago.

817. Mark Smith(18, GBR)

Finished #2 in juniors and managed to already get his first futures win. That gives him a head start - this should be an interesting year for Smith.

1128. Mike Ferry(18, GBR)

Not as successful as Smith, Ferry was 9th in the junior ranks. Still managed a FT2 final though a few months back.

1182. Satyagit Guha(19, SRI)

Oh there you are. Latest amateur foray ended the semis, so Guha is taking his sweet time clearing that hurdle.

1981. George Petrov(22, MAL)

A recent acquisition who really, really needs tournament matches. Career high is just above 1500th.

Brian Swartz

04-20-2019, 08:31 AM

2067 Preview

As ever, the same list but more of an evaluation/projection; a look forward, whereas the ranking list is more of a look back at the year that was.

1. John Hart - 89% 8.73, -0.11

Father Time has come for the Irish. Hart's margins aren't what they were, but he's still the clear champion. .

2. Brian Meikeljohn - 88%, 8.86, -0.03

I never look at Meikeljohn without sniffling over what could have been had he been managed better, not wasted points in doubles, etc. He's still objectively the best player on the planet. Has been for 2-3 years. And will almost certainly never be at the top in spite of it.

3. Barry Molyneaux - 88%, 8.53, -0.08

Continues to mask inadequate baseline play by being good to outstanding everywhere else.

4. Ali Solberg - 92%, 8.61, +0.01

Still another year of improvement, but it appears Solberg's progression has stalled. It shouldn't have. Even so, he ought to be more competitive with the players ahead of him simply by virtue of them coming back to the pack.

5. Nicolas Perez - 97%, 8.52, +0.11

A more sober analysis based on this rating might indicate that Perez won't advance much this year. We'll see - proper management is an important factor and I think purely based on better draws he should continue to advance. He would appear to be a couple years away yet from being the man though.

6. Isa Solheim - 92%, 8.50, +0.03

Like Solberg, though not quite as good, Solheim continues to slowly improve and has another season in which to peak.

7. Seamus Hughes - 88%, 8.46, -0.11

Confirming that Hughes' best tennis is behind him, but he will be no pushover.

8. Sushant Chiba - 84%, 8.48, -0.13

Should have been able to stay in the Top 4, really. *sigh*.

9. Mike Rhodes - 89%, 8.25, -0.04

Amusingly, Rhodes now has higher skill than serve for the first time ever. I'm pretty sure that's not a choice - his serve is maxed out.

10. Srba Dogic - 94%, 8.38, +0.12

Baseline game is still underwater, but everything else is there. The meteoric Dogic doesn't have a lot of time to sort that, but hey strike while the iron is hot and all that. Next couple of years are when he'll do whatever it is he's going to do.

Top 10 Average

I thought it might be useful to compare the overall strength of the Top 10 year to year as an era comparison. Could do it for the whole Top 32 but that would be too much effort for me :P.

'65 - 8.573
'66 - 8.532(-0.041)

This is just an average of the ratings for the players, it doesn't take into account mismanagement, etc. Think of it as a 'raw playing strength' comparison. I would expect last year's number to be really quite high historically. With a number of stars declining, we're definitely heading towards a transition eventually to the Age of Perez. The notable thing of recent years to me is that the middle - Solheim/Hughes/Solberg - is somewhat stronger than usual, and then you throw in the generally underachieving Meikeljohn.

13. Tim de Jong - 94%, 8.33, +0.10

de Jong already has the technique of a Top-10 player, but he's a guy who relies more than most on it so he needs a little more to get himself there. I'm confident it will happen though at some point.

14. Samuel Aas- 91%, 8.25, +0.01

Same style of player as de Jong, but has the mentality of a crushed flower and also not the potential that comes with youth.

15. Ollie Haas - 95%, 8.41, ??

Looking at Haas, I wonder why he didn't break through maybe a year earlier. Highly talented, standard technique for a top player, and above-average athleticism. He is a bit on the fast-aging side of things, but you can make a good argument that he might beat de Jong to the first page. The two of them should make the Netherlands (currently 11th) a considerable WTC force.

17. Gullermo Valturri - 92%, 7.96, +0.02

There are Challenger players better than Valturri. I manage one of them myself. It's a bit mystifying to see him up this high.

18. Emilien Mathou - 93%, 8.49, ??

I keep asking why these guys didn't move up sooner - and they hyper-competitive nature of challengers right now is I think a big part of the answer. Mathou is another one with solidly Top-10 ability, nothing borderline about it. Invested some in doubles, and his baseline play is short of the standard, but good mental game and a solid athlete.

19. Chisulo Mpakati - 98%, 8.34, ??

A meteoric talent, Mpakati will go as far as his excellent athleticism takes him. You don't often see someone with 4-star speed and power, but Chisulo has both. That means Zimbabwe has a real star on their hands, at least for the next three years.

20. Constantino Gonzoles- 93%, 8.51, +0.02

Far too good to have not risen further last year, even in this environment. And he's not going to get much better, lacking the dedication of a true professional athlete. Just needs to take better advantage of what he has - namely very good athleticism and elite mentality.

21. Clavet Moniotte - 95%, 8.27, ??

Latest in the line of 'I could have been special, but wasted time on doubles' exhibits. Naturally skill took the hit. Solid athlete/mentality with a Top-5 quality serve already. Behind enough others that he's in the 'should get there eventually' rather than 'future is now' category.

22. Jose Luis Robredo - 93%, 8.20, ??

If his manager ever returns to anything, Robredo waits as a player with the usual quality serve, subpar skill combo. Solid athlete and elite mental game so the pieces are there to try to do something. Isn't much time though, and when you don't practice you throw so much away.

25. Acke Kjaerstad - 98%, 8.31, ??

Strong future if he's well-handled. Baseline play needs work, but the serve is there, along with excellent power and elite mental play. Lots of strong mental guys in this generation. Kjaerstad even has a quite extended shelf life. Should be one of the best of this loaded generation. I'm not sure he isn't second-best after Perez.

26. Il-Sung Jung - 97%, 8.60

What the actual ... ok, Jung makes me want to cry. Considerable wasted doubles goes into the mix here, and yet he's good or better across the board. Endurance is good but not great, so he's clearly been expertly handled for the most part. So ... why is he ranked this low?? Basically, because he's still playing a lot of doubles. 55 singles, 48 doubles matches last year.

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! You have the 4th-best singles player in the world, roughly. ACT LIKE IT!!!

Grrr.

27. Santino Belmon - 95%, 8.41, ??

Yet another very strong young player, lost in the weeds of so many others. Excellent mentality (again, seems like everybody is 4+ there),solid athlete, technique not there yet but close, endurance is on the low side which is the only significant flaw.

30. Algot Hakanson - 94%, 8.14, ??

Doubles again for this clay specialist who is further behind in rally play than the others.

31. William Todhunter - 94%, 8.17, ??

Relative laziness is the only real flaw, but he's not particularly special otherwhise. And right now, that's more than enough to be fatal.

37. Amrik Kasaravalli - 97%, 8.18, +0.11

Main difference between Kasaravalli and those who have already made the jump is that his serve isn't as good yet. With the quality ahead of him and the fact that he's the weakest I've had by a significant margin, I think his ceiling is to someday qualify for the WTF at the bottom of the Top 10 if all the others hang around. It's going to be an interesting and much different ride for Amrik.

70. Joao Narciso - 99%, 7.65, +0.35

Had a good surge this year, but needs another just like to even get close to escaping Challengers. I'm going to say it takes two years to make that happen. Pretty good athlete, but lots to do yet on the technique side.

203. Marcel Bonner - 95%, 7.83

As mentioned, a lot better than you'd think by looking at the ranking. Quality from the back, elite mentality (AGAIN!), and very good speed. I'd recommend a steady diet of challengers and serve training to bring that up; right now that weapon is at low-level futures level and attention should be paid. But Bonner can definitely be a guy who is a Top-32 pro despite the doubles diversion somewhere in his history.

283. Tommy Fitzpatrick - 99%, 7.02, +1.04

Growth slows down now for these guys. Fitzpatrick has reached his physical peak, and is just about ready to make the jump to Challengers. Few if any futures players will be a serious threat to him now.

384. Nasir Chittoor - 95%, 6.63, +0.99

As you might expect, Chittoor is on a similar path but not yet maxed-out physically. Wait a few months for that. He still needs more time in futures, but he and others will make the challenger jump at some point this year.

437. Ritwik Intodia - 95%, 6.68, +0.90

Right now, Intodia and Chittoor are very close in both ranking and playing ability. Endurance should make the difference for Nasir over time, but Intodia is no slouch.

553. Rakesh Kayeeda - 95%, 6.42, +0.88

Similar quality improvement from the slower Kayeeda.

817. Mark Smith - 97%, 6.76, ??

Middle of the pack aging for Smith, who has elite power and endurance, incredible talent(5.0), and even plays well in front of his home fans. A little slow, but he's definitely positioned as a major threat. Good example of the kind of player for whom amateurs would simply be a waste of time.

1128. Mike Ferry - 99%, 6.43, ??

Merely 'solid' as an athlete, Ferry is more the meteoric type.

1182. Satyagit Guha - 96%, 5.76, +0.84

As on-court results would indicate, almost actually ready for futures now. But not quite.

1981. George Petrov - 98%, 5.73, ??

Both Petrov and the unranked Timmy Lockhart are in basically the same boat of needing amateur matches to boost their form,and yesterday. Beyond that, Petrov seems a pretty average player who should aim to eventually be successful in futures and earn points there so that he can be replaced with someone better.

Brian Swartz

04-20-2019, 08:41 AM

So we have two Top-100 teenagers. That's definitely a record. Claudio Altichierro(87th) has been mentioned before. And also, Odimos Csollang(96th), who is insanely young at less than 19 and a half. Sure seems that more people are developing strong players these days.

On that subject, I've never seen as many 8.3 and up developing players as we have right now. Usually those slots are more guys in the Hakanson/Todhunter range. Sort of throws the usual calculus out the window. In a couple of years, we could easily have an entire Top 10 full of 8.5 - 8.65 or so players filling out after Perez, which is why I'm so pessimistic on Kasaravalli. In terms of depth of strong players, not necessarily elite ones but a step or two below that, this has a good chance to be the most competitive era the tour has ever seen by a healthy margin. It is not a good time to be breaking through. I'm curious to see whether this trend continues.

Brian Swartz

04-23-2019, 01:24 AM

January

We're still the week before the Australian Open, but the important pieces appear to be set for it. Nicolas Perez won the Qatar Open (250), beating Dogic along the way, which moves him just into that key #4 spot where he'll be able to avoid the perils of Hart/Meikeljohn until the semis. Solberg is playing this week but that shouldn't matter, since he already has a fill of 250-level titles. If he holds that spot, he should improve points significantly this year simply by getting better draws.

For me, Sri Lanka promptly lost their first three against Sweden before rallying for a more respectable 3-2 loss in the first round of WTC group play. Naturally a loss is still a loss. Ali Solberg was responsible for most of the drama. He went five sets with both players, defeating Kasaravalli and then losing to Chiba in a true epic. 9-7 in the 5th and it took several match points to break through.

Then Sushant Chiba had a warmup event in Chennai. He played well, defeating No. 12 Stachovsky in the SF before getting flattened 6-3, 6-1 by Meikeljohn in the final. So that's a pretty good picture of where he is.

Amrik Kasaravalli has high form due to last year's push at the end of the year, the Anil Cup, and the WTC. He headed to CH1 Noumea, his one chance to probably be seeded at the AO if he won. Just ahead of him there was Bruno Niedzweicki. It looked to be a match of those two ... and yet both were dumped in the SF by similar players going in opposite directions. Veteran Argetine Ernest Melingeli, seeded 6th and ranked 60-somethingth, is still a good athlete and has an elite serve, but somewhat weak from the back. Breaks figured to be rare but instead there were several in the first set. Including Amrik being broken to love after getting back on serve at the end of it. From there it was a dogfight, but eventually he fell short 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. It was the proper result, an even matchup on paper with Melingeli the fresher player. On the other side came the champion, German Santino de Jesus, a meteoric riser who is up to 60th with the victory. He's an example of the trend that having an 8.0 or better player used to mean Top 32 or nearly there; now it means little more than comfortably in the Top 100. You might hear Santino's name again, or the sport might swallow him up. In any case, Kasaravalli only gets a small boost and figures to be second or third on the list of spoilers instead of being seeded. A lot will depend on his draw in Australia. He made the second round last year, and could easily be out in the first to a high seed or make a deeper run to the third round depending on how it shakes out. He's right on the edge, the tipping point, in the fight with several others. Getting securely out of Challengers quickly will require some luck and taking advantadge of his opportunities. As an example, William Todhunter, 32nd at the start of the year, is down to 40th. And might very well bounce back up, or keep falling. It's a really fluid, dynamic situation, and now Kasaravalli is smack dab in the middle of it.

Nasir Chittoor and Satyagit Guha have not played any formal events in the new year, electing to train. They'll be out again next week. I thought about qualifying in the AO for Chittoor, but decided he's not quite ready yet. Close - I'd probably do it if I was managing Fitzpatrick, but not there in my case. I also came to a decision. Both players have 4.2 endurance and rising, which means I pretty much need to have them playing doubles and singles every week or else they're wasting fatigue and losing potential XP. Yet the hit-and-miss nature of practice tournaments at the futures level cannot be avoided. So for now, I'm going to give them some HC practice events to hold the line there, no clay, and grass/indoors - the less-used surfaces - for the others. The impact of this will lessen over time but it is helping to get better results from practice, and I can go back into clay when the ranking rises and results become more stable. This is probably pretty much how the next few months will go for them in between the odd futures tournament, and with amateur points dropping off now ranking progression is going to slow a bit.

Coming Up

The first Slam of the year naturally, the Australian Open. All of those good, improving players means a lot of sleepers in the draw. Aside from Hart & Meikeljohn at the top, I really don't think anyone can be certain they'll even make the second week. I expect a lot of early-round chaos all year in the big events. And how far will Sushant Chiba fall? Pretty much needs to make the semis, a tall order, to maintain his place. Earlier, and he could drop as far as the low teens after being in the final last year.

thehitcat

04-24-2019, 10:04 PM

Oh Hai Nic! :)

Christy

04-25-2019, 03:48 AM

Well that was an event.

5 setter against Solberg followed by another with 400 points vs Hart. First 3 sets went to tie breaks and 8-6 in the final set. With Molyneaux dropping off early to an unseeded opponent it should see him into 3rd. With his edge on clay he could well have a big season there too and help him get a bit closer to the number 2 spot and (and further away from dropping down again).

A loss to Solberg over those 5 sets could have seen a very different outcome, he could have been clinging on to 4th or have lost it altogether so incredibly fine margins been played with here.

Elsewhere Chiba drops out with style. Out in the 3rd round while Dogic grabs 8th with a semi final appearance (which I think would have skipped him past Chiba even if Chiba had made the final again!).

Kasaravalli got a decent draw and took full advantage of a decent draw at least. I think only realised the strength of the top 32 when I saw his ranking breakdown. So many challenger wins and still was not in the top 32. He gave Meiklejohn a good match as well.

Aas continues to confuse backing up his Paris final with a first round loss to the previously mentioned Todhunter.

Hughes vs Haas was an interesting look into some battles that will start cropping up as he ages. Hughes has the edge anyway. I wonder if the dutch pair will keep up or could we see a top decided on relatively early?

Brian Swartz

04-25-2019, 04:08 AM

The final was as fine a match as there has ever been. Looking back over the Perez v. Hart series it just looks closer than it should be. On paper Hart is significantly better, but Nicolas seems to have his number a bit or something. Could be that his time will come a little sooner than I think - there'll be plenty of matches between them the next couple of years to determine that I would think. Hart's gotta be kicking himself for that third-set TB, in which he held a 6-3 lead with triple set point ... before losing the last five points in a row. Chances for both players when a match is that close, but that seemed the key moment as I happened to catch it live. You hit on most of the stuff I was going to mention, but also:

** Harald Wentz. Mentioned him a bit last year as a guy who should be ranked higher, esp. if managed better. Well, he was an unseeded QF and is 22. Should definitely make a jump. Dispatched two different mid-ranking seeds in straight sets. Four of the 16 players in R4 were not seeded. Last year same event had one. As expected, land mines all over the draw and I think it's going to take a couple years to sort it all out.

** Kasaravalli was 1-3 in Slam matches before making it to the 4R here. I had him as a modest underdog vs. Balzer, so that win was a surprise to me and was really the 'signature moment' he's been looking for. 9-7 in the 5th no less for lots of juicy XP. Probably shouldn't have won, but superior mentality saved the day. Now he'll be just above the line instead of just below it - and has to try to replace all those points from Challengers at the higher level. I expect a sloooooow ascent here, esp. over the rest of this season.

** Which didn't work out for Chiba. Patrick Sanchez isn't a terrible player, but the kind I'd still expect him to beat 80-90% of the time. And the worst part is how. Chiba has 4.4 mentality, Sanchez right on the average line at 2.5. So Sushant is broken 4 times in 5 chances. He was a bit more steady and consistent on the day but blew it at the key moments. His career was built on NOT doing that. And yeah he's going to be well outside the Top 10 now. Hasta la bye-bye to being relevant.

Christy

04-25-2019, 04:09 AM

Oh and Perez has now won exactly 1 250 level, 1 500 level, 1 masters and 1 grand slam. Weird record but it amuses me.

I think Hart winning everything has hurt him in the Perez head to head. He has generally been mildly tired in terms of form (25-27) by the time they meet while that has rarely been an issue for Perez yet.

Counter intuitively I think depending on mentality decreases the consistency of a player. It affects so few points that you can get unlucky very easily. They are also critical points. It can help cause an upset when you ate getting beaten but if it doesn't fire quite right in a game then a large chunk of your rating is simply not relevant to the match. Obviously more is always better but it is just doesn't always help in a consistent manner (due to only affecting 5-15 points a game).

thehitcat

04-25-2019, 08:26 AM

Epic match. Don't have much to add other than to point out again that sequence at 6-3 in the Third set tiebreak. Was surprised to force the Fifth set after that 5 point collapse.

Brian Swartz

04-26-2019, 12:47 AM

counter intuitively I think depending on mentality decreases the consistency of a player.

I definitely agree with this, and you put it well. Problem with Chiba is he's been plenty consistent - as in, consistently underperforming for 90% of the past year! :lol:

I think only realised the strength of the top 32 when I saw his ranking breakdown. So many challenger wins and still was not in the top 32.

That part of it isn't that unusual. Historically, the points required for #32 are usually 1300-1500 (1518 right now is Kasaravalli on that spot exactly). Last few years were 1425, 1375, 1300, and 1390 at the year-end. So it's a little high but not a huge difference. What I see as being different at the moment is that you'll sometimes get a few really good Challenger players, but then they move up, the points spread out to others and things equalize again. There's a lot more quality depth though now, to the point where there's about an extra 0.2 BS rating points needed to move up than usual, and no sign yet of it abating.

ETA: Interesting factoid: #10-14 in the rankings lost points. #29-37 gained points, except for one that stayed the same. The AO definitely reshuffled the deck significantly, a process I expect to continue. That one was Plushenko, who has the same amount of points he had before … and dropped from 31st to 36th.

Brian Swartz

04-30-2019, 01:33 AM

February/March

Sri Lanka smashed Poland as expected, 4-1, in the second round of WTC Group Play. Lost in doubles, straight-set wins in the others. The points were very welcome for Kasaravalli, who had two singles wins last year and already has three in his four rubbers this season with at least one more round to go. In fact, he would have dropped out of the Top 32 without getting both Ws. More on that later. He's also now out of the national doubles team.

Right now it's Sweden 2, Sri Lanka/Poland 1, and India 0 in the group standings after Sweden edged India 3-2. Basically we need Sweden to pound Poland, who we hold a slight tiebreaker edge on right now, worse than India beats us. That's what'll determine who the second team out is. I like our chances at the moment - I figure us to lose 3-2 to India but that should be good enough ... esp. if we can get a set or two off of Meikeljohn somewhere in there.

Sushant Chiba then had a couple more meh performances. Delray Beach 250 ended in the SFs (l. Mpakati), and Acapulco 500 in the QFs (l. #30 Lucas Perez(ARG), 6-3, 7-6(5)). The first one got him just barely back into the Top 10, he's basically been trading with Balzer for that final first-page spot. I've seen nothing to indicate he won't keep dropping futher. I have decided what to do with Chiba long-term though. Once he falls out of the Top 32, and possibly sooner depending on other events, he'll pair with Guha in doubles whenever it's useful (i.e., whenever it wouldn't be better for Guha to play with Chittoor). Not sure how that'll all work out but it'll be interesting to have a has-been and a young doubles aficianado together for a while. No idea what the ceiling will be on them. We'll just have to see how it goes.

Amrik Kasaravalli tried to find a 250 with decent seeding but none were available. So he was 7th at the Brasil Open this week, where he did what was expected of him but not more. QF loss to (2) Samuel Aas, 6-4, 7-6(5). Return stats were nearly identical; same # of points, 24-22 Aas in terms of points won. But the serve numbers: 8 aces 2 DF for the Swede, 4 aces 7 DF for Amrik, were quite telling. This is his best surface so it likely would have been worse elsewhere. If everything goes at expected in the upcoming Masters, he'll basically stay right where is - on the bubble. It would be nice to pull an upset in one of them and get some breathing room. Right now he has 23 points on Todhunters, with three others within 100.

Nasir Chittoor lost in the final of a second straight FT2 in the UAE, thanks to fellow Reaper Girish Shivakumar. Shivakumar is a few months older, not that much, but is a better athlete with similar technique. And it showed. I expected the same in his most recent outing, but he suprised me last week with a 6-3, 6-2 dismissal of Ireland's Trevor McEvoy. McEvoy, the top seed, is another of those high-skill, low-serve guys at 5.1/1.5. Never know what's going to happen with those, but it went quite well. So I figure Nasir, currently sitting at 298th, is ready to make the jump to to the top FT1 futures tier. He'll still need 3-4 more titles at this level to make it up, and is spending longer than expected here. Part of that is good news though, with the extra doubles matches he gets with Guha. They made it to the final of the same event, falling 11-9 in a super TB to the top seeds. Doesn't get any closer than that. The last couple of futures eventes had not been as kind.

As for Satyagit Guha, he finally said goodbye to the amateur ranks with a second singles title, this one in Morocco three weeks ago. He still sputters mostly in futures, losing in the first round to the 4-seed in the last tournament. For a bit the pairing was almost out of the Top 1000 in doubles, but they've bounced back up into the mid-700s with the stronger showing in Chile. Still need to basically double their points for either to crack the national team, so that's not going to happen unless we get out of group play. Which is another really big reason to hope that happens - if they were able to team up for WTC QF action, it would be great for both the country and for their development.

Coming Up …

The first hardcourt masters, the IW/Miami double. Chiba tries to not fall too much further, Kasaravalli gets what is probably going to be his only Masters action of the year, and the youngsters get more practice before going out for their next futures expedition. We'll take another look at the rankings picture after that, but in general things are not substantively different. Perez getting up to #3 and winning the AO remains the top headline of the year to date. Can he follow it up in the USA?

Brian Swartz

05-02-2019, 02:26 AM

Indian Wells

Shoving my expectations/predictions to the side, IW went almost totally according to form. #1 vs. #2 in the final. Three of the top four in the semis, top 8 all made the quarters, and 15 of the top 16 in the fourth round. In other words, it was the revenge of the status quo. John Hart is your champion, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 over Meikeljohn. He was pushed to three also by Perez in the semis, Harald Wentz - that name keeps popping up - in the third round, and didn't really have a routine outing in between. Third title here in a row for Hart, and he'll try to accomplish the same next week.

Interesting fact: Barry Molyneaux has three masters shields. Only one (Cincy last year) is at any of the home-court, best-surface events. He's only made it past the quarters of IW or Miami once -- that was here, several years ago. He lost to one of the big winners here, Srba Dogic, who continues to impress and gain ground on the pack in the Top 10. Chisulo Mpakati also took advantadge of the opportunity given him, defeating #9 Rhodes and then giving Hart a credible match. Ali Solberg couldn't come close to replicating his only masters final from last year, and slips to being just another one of the guys in the Top 10 pack.

My guys did exactly what was expected and no more. Sushant Chiba escaped (21) Acke Kjaerstad of Sweden 6-4, 7-6(9), then pushed Perez to a tiebreak before losing in straight sets for his fourth-round exit. Amrik Kasaravalli, seeded 30th, ran into Samuel Aas for the second straight week. Aas thumped him 6-2, 6-4. Can't complain about the matchup, it could easily have been someone higher-ranked; Kasaravalli is just hard-pressed to pull off an upset against the guys ahead of him right now. He'll get another shot in Miami.

Christy

05-02-2019, 07:00 AM

Just inside the top 32 can be a tough spot. A lot competitions need you to break seeding to get a decent chunk of points (slams excepted) and you can't fill out with some nice CH+s.

Perez has now gone a year where his only hard court losses have been to Hart and Meiklejohn. Chiba was the last one outside of those two to manage it (IW a year ago they met in the 4th round just like last year).

Brian Swartz

05-03-2019, 01:25 PM

Perez has now gone a year where his only hard court losses have been to Hart and Meiklejohn.

That's impressive! Or should I say, it was impressive. My condolences on being caught up in the return of chaos in Miami.

Christy

05-03-2019, 02:12 PM

That's impressive! Or should I say, it was impressive. My condolences on being caught up in the return of chaos in Miami.

Indeed. Miami was the opposite of the nice stable Indian Wells. Still at least Perez doesn't lose points having met Hart at this point last year.

Brian Swartz

05-05-2019, 02:45 AM

Miami

So it ended up having two things in common with Indian Wells.

** Featured all the best players on a hardcourt in the USA.
** John Hart won.

Elsewhere, while IW had the top 8 players in the quarters, only three of them did it again here. 3-5 didn't, and there were four players seeded 20th or higher. Ali Solberg made the final, exactly replacing the points he failed to defend two weeks ago and all of a sudden he's in the thick of things again.

Sushant Chiba had himself a tense run. Close straight-setter against US WC Cordova in R2, then a close comeback win in three over Hakanson in R3. Then came the surprise, as he knocked off 8th-ranked Srba Dogic, hardcourt specialist, in the fourth round by the stunningly easy count of 6-1, 7-5. I expected a loss there and it was his easiest win of the tournament! Only face one BP. Then (27)Lucas Perez(ARG) took him to a close third-set tiebreak, but Chiba pulled through so that he could get blasted by Hart in the semis. But it's his first SF at this level in over a year. That's the headline.

Amrik Kasaravalli had an easy win over a qualifier, then lost in the third round to 7th-ranked Isa Solheim, 6-3, 7-6(3). That sounds closer than it was, the players combined to go 1-12 on break chances but Amrik was pretty badly beaten. Form holds again, and he can be neither upset nor thrilled, but merely needs to work into a position where he's more competitive in these types of matchups.

Brian Swartz

05-05-2019, 04:25 AM

Q2 Player Rankings

1. John Hart(28, IRE) - 14,250

Hart lost in the Australian Open final, but other than that it's been pretty darned impeccable. He still dominates the sport, and is up to 8th all-time in longevity at the top spot.

2. Brian Meikeljohn(28, IND) - 9,110

Added a bit to his total overall, but not as much as you'd like. Could have won a close IW final with Hart, then beaten by Solberg in the Miami QFs. That inconsistency is the difference. It makes him just a gifted player, not a champion like the Irishman well ahead of him.

3. Nicolas Perez(23, ARG) - 8,110

It's rather striking that Perez is five years younger than the two men he's chasing. He has fewer clay points to defend than Meikeljohn, who won Monte Carlo last year. If the Indian doesn't repeat that success, Nicolas could easily see himself taking over the #2 spot by summertime.

4. Barry Molyneaux(28, USA) - 6,580

Looks like he's starting to slide, and has less than a thousand points on Solberg & Hughes. Of course, neither of them are spring chickens either, so this is a battle that will probably play out for a while.

5. Ali Solberg(26, SWE) - 5,770

6. Seamus Hughes(28, IRE) - 5,585

Briefly up to 5th again was Hughes, but then a surprising R3 loss to Jung in Miami upset that upward drive.

7. Isa Solheim(26, DEN) - 4,420

Last year the top Dane made the SFs in each of the first three big events. This year he hasn't done it once. The clay portion of the calendar was a huge disappointment for Solheim last year, so that's his chance to either get back into things, or stay well of the pace.

8. Srba Dogic(24, CRO) - 4,210

Quality start to the year for Dogic, who is staking a claim to a spot at the WTF ... and perhaps more.

9. Mike Rhodes(28, PHI) - 3,685

Just hanging round and playing every clay tournament he can find.

10. Sushant Chiba(29, SRI) - 3,380

Soon to become the only 30-something in the Top 32, so it's something that he had a fine run at Miami to stick his nose back in the Top 10, however momentarily.

12. Tim de Jong(25, NLD)

Slow rise continues. He's playing like a guy who doesn't know for sure if he's ready to join the first page.

13. Samuel Aas(26, SWE)

Continues to be an enigma. Miami/IW were solid, but how do you make two Masters finals and lose in the first round for 3 of 4 Slams?

15. Ollie Haas(24, NLD)

If he's going to make a move this year, you're about to see it. Quality clay player and also focuses more than most on grass, where he made the Wimbledon QF last year.

16. Emilien Mathou(25, FRA)

Made the round of 16 in two of the three big ones, earning himself the right to expect such performances. Will that spur him on to greater breakthroughs?

17. Constantino Gonzoles(25, ARG)

Only has a couple years or so left to do whatever it is he's going to do, and the dirt is crucial to him. QFs in Rome and Monte Carlo last year - can he step it up a notch and/or find more consistency?

18. Chisulo Mpakati(22, ZIM)

Taking advantadge of chances at Miami/IW helped him, but he's still not quite up to the next tier. Appears to be backing off the diet of 250s some ... but possibly not quite enough. Should be able to add some points on clay, esp. if he can break into the seeding. He's close.

20. Clavet Moniotte(24, FRA)

21. Il-Sung Jung(23, KOR)

SF run in Miami got people's attention and backed up what I said about him at the start of the year. Now it's time to see if he can start producing consistently with other players watching out for him.

22. Harald Wentz(22, AUS)

Less than two months older than Mpakati for youngest Top 32 player, and candidate for breakout player of the year. Quarterfinalist in Dubai(500), AO, and Miami already. A hardcourt specialist, but can hold his own on the clay. Might be late summer though before he really makes a splash.

23. Lucas Perez(23, ARG)

Won the Argentina Open(250), SF in Acapulco(500), QF at Miami. That's vaulted him up, similar to Wentz, from 37th at the start of the year. And he's an almost single-minded clay-court specialist, so we're about to see the best part of his game.

25. Acke Kjaerstad(23, SWE)

A lot of just-missing early this year, but then a first-round loss at Miami to Abinati hurt. Overall he hasn't moved.

26. Guillermo Valturri(26, MEX)

27. Santino Belmon(24, ITA)

28. Algot Hakanson(24, SWE)

31. Amrik Kasaravalli(23, SRI)

Just another 23-year-old struggling to make it, and he's still right on the bubble. A clay specialist as my guys are at this point in their careers, he'll be looking carefully at scheduling options and continuing to try to find ways to replace challenger wins with equal or better points.

32. William Todhunter(25, AUS)

Right now the cutoff here is at 1545 points. That's about as high as I've ever seen it, and the competition remains intense.

65. Joao Narcisco(22, BRA)

Recently made the SF at CH2 Barletta and QF at CH2 Rabat. Narcisco is up a few spots to a new career high, but is apparently not ready to break out just yet. It'll come.

138. Marcel Bonner(24, DEU)

A sharp rise from 203rd to start the year, Bonner has decisively entered the Challenger ranks. Continues to mix-and-match singles and doubles at times, while recently making a SF and QF at CH2 events.

213. Tommy Fitzpatrick(19, IRE)

Now at full physical maturity, Fitzpatrick recently decided it was time to enter Challenger play. He made the final at CH3 Florianopolis, but went out in the early rounds at a few others of various tiers.

307. Nasir Chittoor(19, SRI)

Hasn't played since last we reported, though he's in Hungary for his first FT1 this week with Guha. Practice results have been solid but not spectacular - I sense it's the time to push through the upper levels of futures play. 808th in doubles.

364. Rakesh Kayeeda(19, SRI)

Won a FT2 in Romania a month ago, then a QF loss in a FT3 last week. Continued progress upwards.

398. Mark Smith(19, GBR)

Celebrating his 19th birthday this week, Smith has recent SF and champion results in the FT3 tier, and was a finalist at FT2 Ecuador two weeks ago. He's wasting no time, having already cut his start-of-year ranking in less than half.

399. Ritwik Intodia(19, SRI)

A 5th player packed into the 200-400 range for our club. The tour doesn't know what's going to hit it in a few seasons.

413. Mike Ferry(18, GBR)

Almost a sixth. Won Denmark FT3, then made the SF at CH3 Bath. So he's reaching high despite his youth.

797(D). Satyagit Guha(19, SRI)

Escaping amateurs and getting into the Top 1000 was the big news for Guha this year. Has yet to make it past the second round - and that only once - in a singles future event. In doubles though he has two futures titles and a runner-up finish, all with Chittoor of course. 953rd in singles, and the pairing is only slowly rising in doubles right now. The critical mass just isn't quite there yet.

Christy

05-07-2019, 12:56 PM

A loss to Lucas Perez in the 3rd round was unexpected. Not least not generating a break point on clay after the first set. This was after a close rematch against Wentz. Both are 23 and are saying that when it is time for Nicolas he won't have it all his own way once Hart and Meiklejohn fade away.

Hopefully he can rebound in a few weeks but the no. 2 spot is likely put of reach again until Wimbledon with Meiklejohn retaining in Monte Carlo.

Brian Swartz

05-07-2019, 09:05 PM

Clay is definitely weird right now, with a lot of young players being good on it and then higher-ranking players not so much. That's still a tough defeat though :rant:

World Team Cup, Group Play Round 3

Surprisingly Sri Lanka takes down India 3-2, removing any doubt; we escape group play and make it to the quarterfinals for the first time in three years! Used to be an annual assumption, as it had been 23 consecutive seasons, since our second-ever year at level 1 way back in '42, that we made it that far. We have a very winnable match against Mexico in a kind draw, so could make it even further, and are back up a spot to #3 overall.

All that is good news, and yet I'm not sure I don't wish we lost. A strange thing to say, but it was just a weird tie. Brian Meikeljohn beat us in both of his matches as expected, though Chiba gave him more fight than expected and should have won. Took two of the first three sets, losing the other in a close tiebreak, before the world no. 2 rallied for a 5-set victory. He's India's only Top-100 player, so wins by both players against their other singles gave Kasaravalli a very useful 50-point boost. But the real surprise was in doubles, where it was weakness against weakness. Maitreya/Pallavan for us, Neeraj/Sheather for them. If you've ever heard of any of those players before I'm calling you a liar. Both pairings won exactly 161 points in a 7-5, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 win for our guys. A see-saw match in which we spread out our best play over three sets and they concentrated theirs into two, and that was literally the difference in not just the match but the whole tie. Meikeljohn can't rescue India by himself.

Why is this potentially a bad thing? Well, Sweden stomped Poland 5-0, not losing so much as a set. So we would have advanced anyway, and now Maitreya/Pallavan got a huge 100-point boost to their doubles points. That means Guha/Chittoor can pretty much forget about joining the national team this year; they have a third of Pallavan's points total and a quarter of Maitreya's, and that single match got the higher-ranking duo as many points as we'd get from three FT1 titles. The youngsters are up to third and fourth nationally, but have a long way to go to break in. Much longer than it was before. For Pallavan, it was nearly a doubling of his points total - he had 110 before, and 210 after.

The one event for my young players during this stretch also took place during the WTC. A first FT1 title was achieved by Nasir Chittoor in Hungary, and we lost another super TB final in doubles with Satyagit Guha, who once again took an early singles exit. Chittoor is now up to the mid-200s in singles, and Anil Mehul - who recently turned the big 50!!, proving I've been playing this game way too long - is really busy now. Both growing players are approaching physical peak now and they need training most weeks as even practice tournaments don't quite cut it. And that's not even getting into what happens when things don't go well for Kasaravalli. Time for my supertrainer to really earn his keep - this is the last great thing he's going to do in tennis.

In the in-between week, Amrik Kasaravalli entered the Houston Open(250, Clay), and was stunned in the second round by former #10 Nintau Ariyanuntaka, one of those guys for whom I have to check the spelling like four times. It was a close match that went the distance but the proper result based on how it played out. I was surprised though. Ariyanuntaka does still possess an elite serve, but clay's a real weakness for him and I thought that would be more than enough to counterbalance that. It should have been, but I think Amrik just didn't show up for this one and mailed it in.

Monte Carlo

The quarterfinals held four of the top 8 seeds, a few lower ones, and then the previously-mentioned Argentine Lucas Perez. Not only did he beat Nicolas, but he backed it up against 12-seeded de Jong to make the semis where he lost to Hart. The tournament backed up the narrative of Hart, then Meikeljohn, then who the heck knows as the Indian did defend his title from last year in winning the final, and those two do still appear to be the class of the sport. He only had one easy match and was pushed to three on three occasions, including a tiebreak to decided it against Mike Rhodes, but each time the world no.2 pulled through. The Irish standard-bearer didn't have it much easier, and might have won the match of the tournament, a third-round 6-7(4), 7-5, 7-6(7) win over rising Korean Il-Sung Jung who continues to play well and refuse to be left out of the headlines. That could have easily gone either way.

For my guys, Sushant Chiba had a chance to make noise in the third round against Molyneaux, a finalist last year who made the semis (l. Meikeljohn) this time. 72-70 was the points count and that's pretty much how it played out; a couple points decided it in a 6-4, 7-6(6) defeat. Amrik Kasaravalli was in a real tough spot. Almost nobody skips Monte Carlo anymore. That didn't use to be the case. So the choice is basically between a crappy practice week or a masters tournament where he's not going to be seeded and probably bugs out early. With him, and probably going forward in these kinds of situations, I'm opting to play the masters which is not what I used to do. However, he is excellent on clay and at least this way there's a chance of making something happen. The other option ensures it'll be a bad week. All I needed was one win to make it worthwhile. Didn't get it though - lost in the first round of qualifying and then met up with Harald Wentz in singles. Last falls win over an over-played Wentz in the Orleans challenger was avenged here, 6-3, 6-4. Wentz's altheticism and world-class serve more than trumped Kasaravalli's somewhat better baseline play and superior clay proficiency.

Brian Swartz

05-10-2019, 01:02 AM

May

By 'May', I mean the two weeks between Monte Carlo and Madrid. So the first half of May. Or whatever. And by the way, stuff is happening in Madrid, to the tune of the three unseeded quarterfinalists as I speak. But this is about what happened before that.

Amrik Kasaravalli played the Bucharest 250, while Sushant Chiba took time off for practice. Seeded 6th, Kasaravalli got a nice win over 4-seed Jacek Andrejova, one of the falling veterans. That put him in the semifinals, where he lost in three to Moniotte, but that's still a nice 90-point result that's basically able to replace a challenger title. Nasir Chittoor also was off for practice, while Satyagit Guha continues to struggle in singles, but managed to get a decent partner and drag him to the FT3 Russia doubles title. So that made it a useful event for him.

https://i.imgur.com/N79bkM7.png

Rankings the week before Madrid because I've been a bit busy and was too lazy to transcribe it all. Top and bottom one are just for reference to show the 'breaks', but what's interesting to me is 'bubble', 27-36 here. Cutoff for #32 here is 1595, which is the highest I've ever seen it. There's a limit to how far it can go, but we've basically got a glorified game of King of the Hill going on. The ones just outside the Top32 are basically going out and winning Challengers, then they move up and others are pushed down and they go do the same thing, moving back into position, and so on. As Christy mentioned, it's tough esp. with the competition further above to get enough points in 250s and so on to replace those Challenger titles. Normally that's not so much of an issue because if you're good enough to get up, you can usually scrape out some upsets - harder to come by right now.

Worst case for Kasaravalli here is actually that he drops out of the seeding for RG. Now that doesn't look like it'll happen at the moment, but if he loses in the first round at Madrid/Rome like he did in Monte Carlo, that's 10 points for each and he's got 125 points in Challengers going away those two weeks. Very possible he could end up losing 100 points and ending up in the mid-30s again. Could just skip the masters and get crap practice which would allow me to use some lower-level results, but that wouldn't help that much from a points perspective and I don't want to sabotage my own development. So he's hoping for opportunities and something to break his way - dropping out and playing Challengers again for a bit though is definitely not totally out of the question. He'd already be only 5 points above the cut if he hadn't won that QF in Bucharest!

And by the way, it's not just there. Usually 2000-2100 points is enough to get to #16, the next break spot. Right now it's almost 2400. A lot of points are shifting from both the Top 10 and the 33+ brackets into this scrum, and the result is some gloriously intense competition.

Brian Swartz

05-10-2019, 03:20 PM

Madrid

It might have been premature to put Nicolas Perez's move upward on hold. The Argentine phenom bashed his way past the main in front of him, Meikeljohn, in the semis and then edged Hart in another classic between them in the final, 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(5). Neither player did well at all on their break chances - in actuality it shouldn't have had to come down a tiebreaker as Perez firmly controlled the match. He's now in clear striking range of #2, though he's not quite there yet. Second Masters Shield of his career, with many more to come.

Harald Wentz continued his charge as the other semifinalist, easily dismissing Sushant Chiba in the third round, sandwiched around closer straight-set successes against Molyneaux in the second and Stachovsky in the quarters. Chisulo Mpakati and Il-Sung Jung both made the last eight as well. The Mpkati/Jung/Wentz trio now ranks 18th-20th, and it won't take much more of this for them to move up a tier.

Amrik Kasaravalli got a bit of a breakthrough to keep himself inside the Top32 bubble. A 6-3, 7-6(5) victory over the fatigued and overplayed Mike Rhodes in round two earned him a dismissal by Meikeljohn in the third, but also got him another solid 90-point effort to stay afloat.

So now we'll do it all over again in Rome, where Meikeljohn hopes to get some breathing room - last year he was out in R3 while Perez made the final. If Nicolas can repeat his title in Madrid though, he could very will still snag the #2 spot. As for me, my younger guys will be back in action on the futures circuit, while Chiba tries to continue his decent play and Kasaravalli struggles for whatever he can get.

Christy

05-10-2019, 03:39 PM

I watched that final and it was crazy. Twice Hart came back from 0-40 and Perez did it once. So often I would see break point followed by Ace from Hart and they really made it close. The double faults from Perez didn't help either. Still he benefited from the extra rest from his early exit in Monte Carlo.

Perez controlled the first set, Hart the second though Perez nearly stole a tie break chance. Perez broke at 5-5 in the 3rd and saved a break point while serving for it only to give Hart another go with a double fault!

Nearly all their matches are incredible affairs.
I could see Wentz making top 10 this year.

Christy

05-11-2019, 07:08 PM

6 of the top 10 in their first match in Rome with just the top 3 and Rhodes going on. The top 3 made the semis where Perez sneaked an undeserved win this time over Meiklejohn. Then he faced,Perez. His cousin who started outside the top 32 this year and beat him in Monte Carlo. Second year in a row he has faced on unseeded player in the Rome finals. Lucas beat Hart in the semi finals, the first competition this year Hart has not made the finals.

Lucas Perez was very tired from his unexpected success recently and Nicolas Perez was able to grab his 3rdmasters shield! Lucas Perez now has a masters semi final and final on clay(and skipped Madrid due to tiredness and starting the year outside the top 30. Impressive haul.

With Meiklejohn making the semi final he is still 3rd but only by 50 points so it could change in the French. And if not Meiklejohn has a lot of points to defend in Wimbledon.

So going into the French, Hart is the defending champ, Perez has two clay masters this year, Meiklejohn as 1and there are plenty of players playing spoiler so it should be fun.

Molyneaux seems to be on a dip. All the mandatory competitions have been terrible for him (though Monte Carlo was effectively a mandatory this year and he did fine there). Still his ranking may start to drop soon.

Brian Swartz

05-12-2019, 02:16 AM

I could see Wentz making top 10 this year

And then he loses in the first round at Rome :lol: I'm sure he's loving that kiss of death you gave him, but you're still not at all wrong here. On Molyneaux, it seems to me the fact that nobody immediately below him is doing more than tripping over themselves is basically saving him. He's slipping, but so is pretty much anyone else with half his points :P. I thought the Perez-squared final was interesting in a rematch of the Monte Carlo encounter. Second straight year that Rome has had an unseeded finalist, only a different result this time.

As for me, Sushant Chiba had a second straight first-round exit at Rome. A close three-set defeat to Moniotte, I can't fault anything there - just got beat by a better player . Really just a tough matchup against the top unseeded player in the draw. Narrowly holds onto #10 ranking for now. Amrik Kasaravalli was close to the quarterfinals. Beat a qualifier, then a surprise win over Patrick Sanchez who I thought would get him. Third round was Fabrizio Abinati, who had just outlasted Hughes and I thought Amrik was a slight underdog against him. That ended up being right, as he gave him at least as good a match as the world no. 6 did in defeat, 6-2, 5-7, 7-5. Frustrating as he really outplayed the Argentine but was 3/14 on BP, while surrendering 5/10. Had 111 return points to 84, a huge disparity … and it would have been a landmark to get to a Masters quarter. Either way, he looks to be secure above the challenger break for now, with a 200-point gap on the cutoff. Just needs to not choke the first couple rounds at RG.

Nasir Chittoor got another FT1 trophy, though there were a couple matches I thought he might well lose. As it was only one went to a third set, and that was the final in which the decider was a dominant bagel served up by Nasir. Satyagit Guha teamed up for a surprise QF loss for the 3-seeds … again by Super TB, 10-7 … and got himself dismissed by a wildcard in a competitive first-round match. So it wasn't his best week overall.

Brian Swartz

05-14-2019, 02:52 AM

2066 Roland Garros

History. History has been made, ladies and gentlemen. In the very first edition of this tournament 76 years ago, a qualifier won the whole thing. That is not a particularly sensational thing as there were only a few months of rankings to base things on and the tour was new. In the exactly three quarters of a century since, nobody has taken home the trophy who was not in the top quarter of seeded players, 8th or better, coming in. Nobody, that is, until now.

Say hello to Spaniard Calisto Aviles, who defeated #3 Nicolas Perez in the final, 6-2, 7-6(6), 6-4. He also dispatched #8 Dogic, #2 Meikeljohn, and #4 Molyneaux along the way. Tough to say he isn't worthy. At the start of the year, he was barely inside the Top 50 at 47th in the world. Last year he was a mere curiosity, losing to Molyneaux in five sets in the third round while amassing a decidedly unimpressive 43-24 overall record ... and below water in doubles. Just a few weeks ago he won his first professional title of any caliber ... the Istanbul 250. To say he comes out of nowhere is an understatement. And now Aviles the Unannounced hoists the trophy in Paris, and will definitely test whether RR follows the rule that all Slam champions make the tour finals - because by all rights he should be there. He is a total clay specialist so he may have trouble duplicating this success - but his total points were nearly tripled in a week and Aviles figures to be on the edge of the Top 10 when the next rankings are published.

If you needed proof that this is the year of chaos, look no further than this. Other notables:

** Perez is still the overall top performer on clay this year, which definitely bodes well for his future. He'll seize the #2 spot now, and we'll see what he does with it.

** Meikeljohn lost in the QF to Aviles in four sets, a slip for him but nobody did better against the shocking spaniard. He's down to #3.

** Good bounceback semi for Molyneaux after a poor clay season going in, to put it midly. Solidifies his hold on #4.

** World no. 1 John Hart lost a set to Amrik Kasaravalli in the third round, a nice speed-bump performance by my guy which made me happy. But Hart was straight-setted by the guy he beat in last year's final, Mike Rhodes - the toughest possible matchup in the fourth round, and Rhodes eventually got back to the semis in another strong showing despite the fatigue. Hart has clearly been surpassed on clay, the beginning of the end for most top players, but he still has the skills to handle anyone on a hardcourt. The summer swing will be crucial for him. He hasn't been challenged like this in years.

** Sushant Chiba was also out in the 4th round, three close sets including two tiebreaks to Molyneaux. Can't complain there, even if he made the QF last year.

** Hughes, Mathou, and Samuel Aas - who seems to have figured out what to do at a Slam - were the other quarterfinalists. Nice 5-set win over Solberg in the 4th round for him, and his first-ever trip to the second week of a Slam.

** Nearly as shocking is the performance of Russian Andrey Rublev, who made it to the round of 16 despite coming in ranked 72nd. The youngsters just keep on coming.

** Miserable year for #7 Isa Solheim continues with a first-round loss, though it was a very close one.

** A lot of the promising names bit the dust in the third round. Wentz out to Mathou in four, Mpakati to Solberg in four, Jung to Stachovksy in four as well - that last one really a big surprise to me as the Russian is not a top-quality clay-courter by any stretch.

** We must mention Lucas Perez, who is establishing himself as the #2 behind Nicolas in a very strong Argentine contingent, and lost to the eventual champion in four in the fourth round. He has nothing to be ashamed of either.

** I also did a bit of an experiment which ended up validating how strong the competiton is right now. Nasir Chittoor, ranked 224th, entered qualifying. Years ago, around 200th is where the last main draw spot ended up. Here, there were guys in the 150s in qualifying. So the activity even down past the 100 mark in the rankings in terms of seeking out opportunities is so much better than it was when I started this dynasty. Chittoor won two matches but lost a third-set TB in the final qualifying round ... and then the guy who beat him won a main-draw match against another qualifier for a cool 70 ranking points. Would have been nice, but I still get 20 for my three matches which isn't bad at all for a futures player. Satyagit Guha was another part of the experiment. The game lets you do a singles practice event if you are in doubles in the WTC (one match only for that). I tested whether that would work for Slam qualifying ... and it doesn't. So my trainer Mehul got a lot of work in, as Chittoor/Guha were bounced in their first qualifying foray.

Pretty incredible all the stuff we're seeing the last couple of years in terms of history-making that never happened the first 35 years of this tale, which is almost half of the entire history of the tour in this game world at this point. Perez now sets his sights on closing the gap with Hart as we switch focus to Wimbledon, while the rest of the tour just tries to figure out which end is up.