Legends of Sri Lanka

[Brian Swartz]

For a little over a year now in real-life time, I have been playing an online tennis manager game known as Rocking Racquets. When I began, I decided to take a unique approach and try to raise the tiny country of Sri Lanka, then at dead-last in the world(86th) in the rankings, as high as I could. The more traditional way of playing is raising the best young players of any nation that you can find, but this is somewhat of a lottery. It's really a matter of luck and timing, as you have to find them and hire them before anyone else can right after they are generated. The story of my Sri Lankan players has reached a historically important point, and so I have chosen today to begin this story.

Once I get the history out of the way it will be a slow-burning tale. The game world I am involved in is the slowest, as I did not wish for this to become a huge time sink but I love tennis and it gave me an outlet for that. 1 week per game day, which means almost two real-life months per year. The ultimate goal is to get Sri Lanka to #1 in the world, winning or doing as well as is possible in the World Team Cup(based loosely on the real-life Davis Cup). Individual achievements for my players are secondary.

[Brian Swartz]

Tour History

The game world I'm involved in is now in the final stages of Year 47. It actually began in Year 0, not Year 1. Generally truly modern tennis is dated from 1990, you can pick other dates but improvements in the rankings, standardization of various procedures, etc. demonstrate IMO that to be the best date. I like to think of this game world as having Year 0 = 1990, so that we are now at the end of the year 2037.

Top Players

There are really four players who, in this nearly half a decade of history, have truly distinguished themselves. All have won double-digit Slams, nobody else has won more than 7. As a quick-and-dirty comparison, that works well to identify the best.

4. Oliver Haresign(USA). Haresign flourished from 2022-2029, winning 11 Slams(4th) and two tour finals(T-5th). He is not nearly as accomplished as the three above him on this list, but far better than anyone not on it. In 2026 he won the first three Slams and lost in the final at the USO, nearly sweeping the season. Countryman Jason Coxetter, himself a fine player and ranking third at the time, stopped him in straight sets. Haresign has 23 Masters titles(also 4th all-time) though he did not do much at smaller events.

3. Nicholas Sullivan(IRE). This is the one controversial spot on the list. Sullivan's 17 Slams place him second all-time, prompting some to think he should be up a spot. There are good reasons to place him here though as shall be seen. No question he was a great, great player though. Sullivan was making appearances in the second week of Slams from 2016-2026, an impressive period of longevity. He came even closer than Haresign to the CYGS but did not quite make it in 2019. After dropping the Australian final in four sets, to Carl Hamilton, the longtime #2 during his reign and also from Ireland, Sullivan swept the remaining three Slams and the tour finals, taking the last four Masters titles for good measure. He is second in all-time Masters with 32, but like Haresign did not do much at the smaller events.

2. Martin Prieto(ESP). In the early years of the tour, there was Prieto and then there was everyone else. He also was a force for an 11-year period, 1995-2005. For decades it looked as if nobody would touch him. Twice he had three Slams, the tour finals, and a semifinal Slam loss as the only blemish on the big events. Overall he took home 16 Slams, one fewer than Sullivan. 30 Masters also ranks him third, just behind the Irishman, but Martin's 36 titles in 500 events put him over the top in my estimation, along with his 5 tour finals which is also second-best. No other player has won more than half that many. You can make an argument either way, but I place Prieto here.

1. Eric Gorritepe(ESP). Gorritepe knows no rival, contemporary or historic. He combines the durability and competitiveness of a Davydenko or Nadal with the skill of a Federer, the best of all possible combinations. His reign of terror only recently abated: currently ranked #6 in the world, it was only this last year that he ceased being a major threat at every event. This has allowed us to finally put his career in it's proper perspective. 2027-2037 looks like his era spread, with the last great ride being a final at the Australian just this past season. While nobody before him actually achieved the CYGS, he did it four times('29, '30, '32, and '33) and came one match short at the '31 Wimbledon. American Johnny Napier beat him in a five-set classic, coming from down 2-1 to provide the only major blemish in a five-year run the likes of which tennis has never seen before and will likely never see again. On both sides of that loss, Gorritepe won 10 straight Slams and won all five tour finals in those years as well. The final numbers for his unmatched career:

Slams: 23(1st, six more than Sullivan)
Tour Finals: 6(1st, one more than Prieto)
Masters: 52(1st, 20!! more than Sullivan)
500: 18(2nd, though only half of Prieto's number)

Present-Day Top Ten

1. Gabriel Alastra(ARG, 28) -- 10,060 pts.
It remains to be seen where Alastra will end up. He won three of his five slams last year, usurping Gorritepe at that time who was still his top challenger at age 31. This year he only won one, but did enough to stay just ahead of the competition.

2. David Almagro(ESP, 27) -- 9,960
Almagro won both of his Slam titles this year, emerging as a genuine threat to the #1 ranking.

3. David Prieto(ESP, 27) -- 9,580
His initial Slam win came at this year's Australian. Prieto is the third of a trio of players who can legitimately go into any tournament with the expectation of winning, providing a lot of drama and jockeying for position at the top of the rankings right now.

4. Oliver Challenger(USA, 28) -- 7,670
Challenger is good, just not quite as good as the Big Three.

5. Mick Elder(USA, 26) -- 7,580
Still improving, Elder has designs on challening the Big Three in '38.

6. Eric Gorritepe(ESP, 32) -- 5,750
The man who needs no introduction.

7. Spasoje Kucerovic(SRB, 27) -- 5,295

8. Perry Hogue(USA, 23) -- 4,925
The best of the next generation. The wise champion will watch out for him the next couple of years. His time is coming soon.

9. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 23) -- 4,450
A clay-court specialist who should have a lot more longevity than Hogue.

10. Jens Oberg(SWE, 23) -- 4,160

As can be seen in the bottom three here, the next wave of the youth movement is about to be served. Two years from now, Hogue/Benda/Oberg might well be forming their own 'Big Three'. Three more young names to watch are Antonin Iglar, Andrea Pirlo, and John Condon. All are in the Top 50 and have not yet reached their 22nd birthday.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Tennis History

Sri Lanka stands alone in it's ineptitude, hence the reason for me selecting them as my nation to experiment with. For 10 years, from 1998-2007, they participated in Level 5 of the World Team Cup, the lowest level in the competition. Mostly they lost in the group stage, but four times they made it to the quarterfinals, including 2007. Each time they lost 3-2, one match short of the semis. All of the semifinalists qualify for a playoff to reach the next level up, so being one match short of that four times and never making it was particularly heartbreaking.

In 2008, due to a lack of interest from some of the world's most irrelevant tennis nations, Level 5 was disbanded. Admission to Level 4 for inactive teams was now based on the ranking of their top players as well as the nations' achievement history. For 30 years, Sri Lanka was never once invited.

Eight years ago in 2039, I entered the game with the goal of training up Sri Lanka's best. The first major goal was obviously to get back in the World Team Cup, and this last year I finally achieved it.


Current Players

I dropped a couple of players over the first couple years, but the following 'stable' of four players has been with me for at least four and some longer.

Anil Manohar -- At 35 years old, he's the elder statesman of the group. Manohar developed above-average skills, but was never more than average athletically even during his peak and is presently ranked 442nd. He had a career high of 238th a few years ago, but never made it beyond the level of a high futures/low challenger level player. Semi-pro, if you will. He was chosen as the player I could most quickly get to be a decent trainer. A dedicated trainer can improve a younger one a little faster than generic practice matches can, and the cutoff is age 40. Manohar has a few years yet left to increase his skills(the more skilled, the better a trainer he will become) and then he'll be 'put out to pasture' for use in his true value.

Anil Mehul -- A little short of age 22, Mehul is my top player, ranked 80th in the world. He hung around the edge of the Top 100 for a couple years, but has multiple Top 50 wins this year and is moving up again. He'll probably make the Top 30 eventually but I don't know if he'll go any higher than that. The lack of a trainer and some relatively minor mistakes I've made in training didn't help of course, but he has the talent and dedication. Athletically he's pretty good but not great, there are more gifted players out there but not that many.

Amrik Chittoor -- I was fortunate to snag Chittoor about a year after Mehul was created. He's not much of an athlete but every bit Mehul's equal other than that in talent and commitment. He's nearly 21 now, and has just cracked the Top 100 at #99.

Girish Girsh -- Girsh, 18, is just finishing up the best junior career I've ever had a player have. He'll be in Mehul's class eventually, or at least close to it. He's 7th in juniors with 10 titles at that level, and will be making the jump to pro tour next year.

[Brian Swartz]

All of this leads up to present events. With both Mehul and Chittoor placing in the Top 200 at the start of the year, Sri Lanka was admitted back into the World Team Cup. After 7 years of working up to it, the first major goal was achieved! The pair served as #1 and #2 singles respectively, with Mehul teaming alongside veteran Prakash Nilima in doubles. They smashed their way through the group stage with a mark of 13-2 in matches, 42-8 in sets, best of any Level 4 competitor!

The quarterfinals, bane of Sri Lanka four times in the past, were no different. Ecuador fell 4-1, then Lithuania in the semifinals and Egypt in the final by the same count. Nobody at this bottom level could compete with the two high-powered rising stars. Most of the matches lost were in the doubles.

This week, the 51st week of 2037, Sri Lanka is drawn against Lithuania again. Pairings are based on overall world rankings, and in this case it is their loss. Sri Lanka has risen from 86th to 69th with the successes this year but is still the lowest-ranked team in the playoff, while Lithuania at 31st is the highest-ranked. I have high confidence that we will stomp them again, allowing us to move up for the 2038 season.

[Grover]

Andrea Pirlo

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Football/Pix/pictures/2013/9/25/1380096264417/Andrea-Pirlo-008.jpg

Awesome.

Looking forward to following this. Very interesting premise.

[Brian Swartz]

Excellent!

Another bit of history was made. As expected, Sri Lanka dominated Lithuania for a second time, winning 4-1 again to move up to Level 3 for the 2038 season. Anil Mehul dropped only a single game in his two matchs(combined), Chittoor five in each of his but never came close to losing a set, while once again the doubles were a competitive loss.

Monday: A. Chittoor d. D. Gedgaudas, 6-3, 6-2, 6-0
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. J. Smimov, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Wednesday: J. Smimov/D. Gedgaudas d. A. Mehul/P. Nilima, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. D. Gedgaudas, 6-0, 6-0, 6-1
Friday: A. Chittoor d. J. Smimov, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1

An impressive six bagel sets. This was never a contest. Sri Lanka is now up two spots to 67th in the world. We are now in the final week of 2037. Next week the first group matches get under way for the new year.

Each tier or level consists of 16 nations, divided into 4 groups. A round-robin schedule has a tie contested with each of the other three nations in a group, after which the top two nations from each group advance to the quarterfinals. As mentioned, making the semifinals ensures a spot in the playoff with a chance to move up to the next level/tier. As far as going into the playoffs having to win to stay up, I hadn't looked at that yet since it never concerned Sri Lanka before -- this is the first time we have competed at anything above the lowest level! It appears that the four lowest-ranking nations that don't make it out of the group stage are sent. Not the four lowest-ranking in the group performance, but in terms of their world ranking. So basically making it out of the group will ensure at least staying on the same level next year.

Sri Lanka has been drawn in Group 1 of Level 3. The opponents will be China(48th), Nigeria(39th), and Ukraine(47th). Ukraine has a veteran who was Top 50 until recently(Yevgeni Tupikov, 56th) so they will certainly not be as much of a pushover as most of last year's opponents. China should be very beatable, both of their singles players were in the 150 range. Nigeria made the L3 final last year, losing narrowly to India 3-2 in a playoff to move up. Their best player, Guillame Vittoz, is ranked 86th in the world at the moment and could give either one of our players problems.

I think Sri Lanka will make it out of Group 1 but it will not be a walk-over and a third-place finish is not out of the question. There will be a lot more tense moments this season in the World Team Cup.

[Brian Swartz]

The 2038 World Team Cup has begun!

We began facing off in a must-win against China, which as I mentioned is the weakest member of our group. Here's how the week unfolded:

Monday: A. Mehul d. W. Cheung, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3
Tuesday: A. Chittoor d. L. Chen, 7-6(4), 7-5, 6-2
Wednesday: Z. Hou/W. Cheung d. Mehul/Nilima, 1-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3
Thursday: A. Mehul d. L. Chen, 6-0, 6-2, 6-3
Friday: A. Chittoor d. W. Cheung, 7-6(10), 6-2, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats China, 4-1!

The overall result was the same as most of our ties but it was much more competitive, particularly in Chittoor's matches. The first one against Chen was especially tense, but he pulled through. In the other tie, Nigeria blanked Ukraine 5-0. This was quite a surprise to me. Yevgeny Tupikov's decline must be steeper than I thought, he won just one set in his two matches combined. Nigeria now leads the group ahead of us on tiebreakers. After the Australian Open at the end of the month, we will face them in the second round of group play. That will be a vital tie, and the winner of it will essentially have booked their place in the quarterfinals.

The latest rankings have us up one spot to a new high of 66th.

[Brian Swartz]

2038 Australian Open

In doubles, Mehul and Chittoor won a pair of qualifying matches, then lost to 15-seeds Barros/Fue in the first round of the main draw. The final scoreline was 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-0.

This was Amrik Chittoor's first appearance in any Slam event. He played like it, losing to world no. 47 Vito Bonamoni(CHE) 6-2, 6-1, 6-0. Anil Mehul lost in the first round of every Slam last year except Wimbledon, where he made the third round. His first AO win came over world no. 51 Ruben Vega of Thailand, a competitive 6-3, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 victory. Unfortunately he met up with American Mick Elder, the 5th-ranked player in the world, in the second round. Elder won the world tour finals last year and a pair of 250 events leading up to this. He's mentally better, has a better serve, and is physically more powerful than Mehul. There aren't many who Anil is outclassed again but this was one of those opponents. The match was barely competitive, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4.

Attention now turns to the pivotal WTC tie against Nigeria, coming up in a couple more weeks. Coming up next week will be Girish Girsh's first professional tournament, an amateur-level event in Singapore.

[Brian Swartz]

Amateurs

First up, a word about these events. They are a lot different than anything else a player sees in their ascent through the game. The amateur tournament class is a bridge of sorts between juniors and the semi-pro levels(futures and challengers). Most of the players here stink and will never amount to anything. Those who are even decent don't play here very long at all: the Top 1000 are barred from participating. Rankings and seedings don't really matter much or tell you anything.

Girish Girish had his first amateur event last week and ran through it quickly. He did not come close to losing a set, dropping no more than six games in any match. 6 points is his reward for this, moving him up from unranked to #1838. He'll need to play at least three more of these, spending several weeks training in between them.


2038 World Team Cup: Third Level Round Robin Stage, Second Tie

Sri Lanka faced Nigeria with the winner all but assured a place in the quarterfinals. This was the most dangerous matchup for us.

Monday: A. Mehul d. Y. Bozza, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3

** The easiest singles match for us, so it wasn't really a surprise.

Tuesday: G. Vittoz d. A. Chittoor, 4-6, 6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3

** This was the most epic match any of my players have been involved in, the first one to go five sets for sure and a back-and-forth struggle. Vittoz was better(156-135 total points in the match) but also more inconsistent and Chittoor pushed him to five before suffering the first WTC singles loss Sri Lanka has endured in my tenure. This was a moment of concern because it was feasible though unlikely either player could lose their second singles rubber, and if we lost the doubles like we always do we would drop the tie if they didn't both win.

Wednesday: A. Mehul/P. Nilima d. T. Labbe/B. Dia, 6-3, 6-1, 6-1

** Or they could just annihilate the Nigerian doubles representatives. That works too. This made it all but certain Sri Lanka would prevail. It was shocking though -- I still have a hard time believing they pulled this off.

Thursday: A. Mehul d. G. Vittoz, 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-2

** A nice straight-sets win after the first-set escape, and we clinch the tie!

Friday: A. Chittoor d. Y. Bozza, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0

** Bozza obviously wasn't motivated in the dead rubber here.

Group 1 Results

Just as surprising as the ease of our win over Nigeria was the fact that China blanked Ukraine 5-0 without the loss of a set! This leaves Sri Lanka with a 100% clinched spot in the quarterfinals and first place in Group 1! Nigeria will face China in the final round robin round, and the winner will be tied with us but Sri Lanka will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. The loser will have only one win while we have two, even if we lose to winless Ukraine which seems highly unlikely.

The next round is a couple of months away after the hard-court masters in Indian Wells and Miami. Mehul and Chittoor will participate in those events, maybe a challenger for each if needed before then. and Girsh will played another amateur event as well.

[Brian Swartz]

A couple notes that happened before this week's event first. Anil Manohar, who has all he can do to stay in the Top 500 these days, made the final at an F2(Tier 2 Futures) event in Lithuania, while Amrik Chittoor lost in the QF at a CH2(Tier 2 Challenger) tournament to Perry Mockler(USA, 88th).

This week, while the Masters was going on, Girish Girsh was in his second amateur tournament which ended up not faring as well. He was the 14-seed this time, and waltzed through to the semifinals where he met up with American Joseph Skirrow, an 18-year-old at basically the same point in his career. Skirrow defeated him there in a competitive three-setter, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3.

2038 Indian Wells Masters

This was the debut in terms of Masters events for Amrik Chittoor, while Anil Mehul played here last year, losing in the first round. Chittoor played his way through three rounds of qualifying successfully, only to be defeated in the first round of the main draw by 82nd-ranked Slovakian Cestmir Dsiadosz, 6-3, 7-6(3).

Mehul fared better this year. He not only won his first Masters match, but handed out a bagel in doing so. In the second round, Loke Borrman(SWE, 27th) was one of the biggest scalps he's ever taken in a 6-4, 6-4 win. Next up was Spasoje Kucerovic of Serbia, the 7th-ranked player in the world. Anil has been winning more and more against players outside of the Top 20 and gradually sliding up the rankings to 69th going into this week, but against the very best of the Top 10 he's still winless. Kucerovic has a better serve and is much stronger physically, though he's not particularly adept at hard-court play. After a dominant first set by the Serbian it was a tough battle the rest of the way with the favorite eventually triumphing 6-1, 7-6(4), 6-7(6). 8-6 in a final-set tiebreak is about as close as you can come to winning without actually doing it. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Anil Mehul get a Top 10 victory before the year is out the way he's been going.

After a week off, Mehul and Chittoor will head to Miami for the second of early US Masters events.

[Brian Swartz]

2038 Miami Masters

For Amrik Chittoor it was a repeat of Indian Wells. A good run through qualifying, then a quick beatdown in the first round of the main draw. Argentinian veteran Patrick Rafter surrendered just four games.
It was similar for Mehul as well. New Zealand's Arsenio Antuofermo(world no. 37) was beaten 6-3, 6-4 in the first. That brought up a matchup with a beatable seed, another fairly kind draw.

Tihomir Hreglic(CRO, 21st) was the obstacle. Hreglic is not quite as good from the baseline as Mehul nor as comfortable on the hard courts, but he has a much better serve and is a very mentally tough player, always doing his best in the key moments. Anil gave it a run but Tihomir prevailed 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2. The Croatian saved all three break points he faced and his first serve was impregnable(14 aces, 67% won). If he hadn't been having a great day in terms of accuracy -- he only missed 12 of his first serves, 12% of the total -- Mehul would have had a real chance to pull off the upset.

The final round of group play in the WTC is a bit anticlimactic for Sri Lanka. That's coming up next week, and we'll find out who we face in the quarterfinals.

Long-range Outlook

Anil Mehul turned 22 the first week of the Miami Masters, which seemed a good time to take a look at how his career is progressing. He's been moving steadily upwards this year, these last couple weeks playing at the level of probably a Top 30 player though his ranking is still in the 60s. There are only five players ranked ahead of him who are shy of their 21st birthday, an indicator that many bigger things are ahead of him.

Amrik Chittoor's days in my stable of players are numbered. He's not as good of an athlete, though skill wise he's not far behind Mehul and a year younger. I don't think he has the ability to rise too much further than he has, and I'll be surprised if he ever cracks the Top 50.

Girish Girsh is the future. He's very similar in talent to Mehul, not quite as dedicated, a little more mentally tough, physically very similar though probably a shade behind. Girsh is a little ahead of the pace though in developing his skills and it's not out of the question that he'll become the best player of the group. In a year or two, Chittoor will be jettisoned in favor of a new junior player and Girsh will eventually take his place on the national WTC team. It's a question of when, not if.

[Brian Swartz]

Rankings Update

Before I get to the WTC, the first quarter of 2038 is in the books now and here's what's changed at the top of the sport.

1. David Almagro(ESP) -- 10,520

Overtook Alastra with a runner-up finish at the AO and hasn't given up the top ranking since. He won a 500 event in Rotterdam and went out in the semis at Indian Wells and Miami, good enough to maintain his #1 status but not good enough to open a gap on the field.

2. Gabriel Alastra(ARG) -- 9,770

A shocking quarterfinal exit at the AO to Jens Oberg dropped him to third, and his results since were underwhelming until a runner-up finish last week in Miami.

3. David Prieto(ESP) -- 9,640

Prieto has been the best player so far this year, champion at the AO and Miami, with a couple of 250 titles to go with it. He hasn't added all that much to last year's results though, largely due to an early fourth-round exit in Indian Wells.

4. Mick Elder(USA) -- 8,670

Elder is making good on his goal of challenging the Big Three, already having added more than a thousand points to his total and nearing striking distance. It didn't help that he lost early at the AO(4th round) but he's got three smaller titles to his credit(Brisbane, Auckland, and Memphis). He also won at Indian Wells and made the semis in Miami. Last year's clay results were pretty good, so he'll be hard pressed to improve too much on them.

5. Oliver Challenger(USA) -- 6,960

A casualty of Elder's rise to make the Big Three now the Big Four or at least about to be, Challenger is down to 5th and no longer the top US player.

6. Bjorn Benda(DEU) -- 5,370

Up from 9th and about 900 points added, Benda continues to be the top hope of the next generation. The future for him is very, very soon after a run to the IW finals.

7. Spasoje Kucerovic(SRB) -- 5,040

8. Jens Oberg(SWE) -- 4,695

A signature upset over Alastra at the AO was impressive -- it's not often that a 23-year-old knocks off the reigning king at a Slam event. Like Benda, Oberg is on the rise and he's several months younger. He's up two spots from 8th over the first quarter.

9. Perry Hogue(USA) -- 4,685

At the beginning of the year I called him 'the best of the next generation'. He didn't make any progress though, so maybe I was wrong. Is he a flash in the pan that has peaked already? He's been consistent, but hasn't been able to break through by getting past the semis in any of the big events. I'd say the jury's still out here.

10. Eric Gorritepe(ESP) -- 4,360

How the mighty have fallen. It would appear the unquestioned GOAT has reached the point of irrelevance this year. It happens to everyone eventually, and he's closer to 33 now than 32, no longer a major threat on the biggest stages.

[Brian Swartz]

As for my Sri Lankan quartet, here's their progression:

** Anil Mehul -- 73rd to 62nd singles, 206th to 192nd doubles. He continues to move up steadily. Already Mehul is the only Top 200 doubles player the nation has ever had, and the singles mark, set over 30 years ago at world no. 58 by Prakash Manohari, looks like it will go soon.

** Amrik Chittoor -- 93rd to 92nd singles, 1113th to 850th doubles. Chittoor is pretty much stuck where he is, and I don't expect huge strides upwards anytime soon. For a player of his subpar athleticism to reach the Top 100 is really pretty good.

** Anil Manohar -- 436th to 490th singles, 659th to 712th doubles. It's hit and miss whether Manohar makes it to the business end of even mid-level futures tournaments now. He's in full trainer preparation mode now.

** Girish Girsh -- Unranked at the start of the year as he'd just finished a 7th-place finish among juniors, Girsh is 1571st in singles, 3335th in doubles.


2038 WTC Group Play, Round 3, Level 3
Sri Lanka vs. Ukraine

It was an anticlimactic tie as Sri Lanka was already going to make the quarterfinals, but was important for getting a relatively favorable draw and of course continuing to move up the rankings.

Monday: A. Chittoor d. Y. Tupikov, 6-3, 6-3, 6-1
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. I. Piaskovsky, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0
Wednesday: Mehul/Nilima d. Preobrazhensky/Chichelnitsky, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0
Thursday: A. Mehul d. Y. Tupikov, 6-1, 6-0, 6-1
Friday: A. Chittoor d. I. Piaskovsky, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1

Yawn. I expected us to win, but I didn't expect this kind of crushing. Nowhere did we come close to losing a set, four bagels and eight breadsticks served up!

Sri Lanka advances to the knockout stage every bit as convincingly as we did last year in Level 4. I thought it would be a bit more difficult this year. Our opponent in the vital quarterfinals has been drawn as Canada. I don't expect them to be able to offer major resistance. There are two other nations that could be tough: Austria, who we could face in the semis, and Poland who is on the other side of the bracket and we wouldn't see until the finals. Assuming we get by Canada, we'll have the chance to be in the playoffs for another promotion at the end of the year.

After the strong undefeated run through group play Sri Lanka has risen to a new high of 55th in the rankings. Upward and onwards! The WTC takes a break now, as the quarterfinals don't come up until after the USO in the fall. It will be a relatively quiet period for the next several weeks. Girsh will be looking to get a couple more amateur wins, while Chittoor and Mehul will be playing only as much as needed to stay sharp. Challengers in Chittoor's case, it's possible Mehul may enter a 250 but clay is not our forte and with the masters events limited to a field of 56 it'd be a reach to have either of them enter those. The next big event is of course Roland Garros coming up in a little under two months time. The daily grind of training will cover most of this period for my contingent of players.

[Tellistto]

I'll follow along!

Good start!

Tell

[Brian Swartz]

Danke muy mucho. The clay season is now mostly in the books.

Anil Mehul played in his first 250 event in Bucharest. His first-round opponent was Chilean veteran Florentino Grasa, now 32 years old but he was once a Top 10 player. At this point in their respective careers, Mehul would be a modest favorite anywhere but clay. On this surface the odds were flipped. Grasa's serve is still a little better, the only significant skill advantadge he has, and that proved the difference. He converted half his break chances, while Mehul had a few more of them but only won 5 of 17 in a tough loss. The final score was 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(2), three tough, tight sets and only five total points separating the players.

After a week off, a final tuneup event at a large Challenger in Bordeaux was next. Unfortunately, Mehul ran into Grasa there as well in the quarterfinals after a couple of testy early-round wins against lower-ranking clay specialists. Again he pushed through to a deciding tiebreaker, but again he lost, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3).

Amrik Chittoor played only one event in the lead-up, a small Challenger event in Ostrava. He was pushed but won in a couple of straight-sets wins, then fell to American Radek Smitala(100th) in the quarters.

Girish Girsh continued his assault on the amateurs by cruising to the title in Bergamo, Italy. He never lost more than five games in a match or three in a set.


2038 French Open

All of that work led up to the year's second Slam tournament. Chittoor made his debut here as well. He had a pretty unkind draw, facing off with 14-seed Issac Malpica(ESP). It was over quickly: 6-2, 6-0, 6-1. Yuck. In doubles, the pair managed to reach the final round of qualifying before losing, a bit better than in Australia and the hardcourt masters but still not enough to get to the main draw.

Mehul, on the other hand, had good fortune in his first-round opponent. Last year he'd taken just three games off of Mick Elder, but this time it was aging local wild card Samuel Michon(257th). Mehul completely dominated the match, handing out a bagel and a pair of breadsticks for his first career win at Roland Garros. The next obstacle was far more substantial: 13-seed Evgeni Topoloski(RUS). Topoloski mainly had the advantage of a better serve and greater skill on clay. After a good fight, Mehul succumbed 6-4, 7-5, 6-4. He played well enough to take at least a set but eight double faults really hurt. The Russian was able to get just enough easy points on his serve to keep Anil at bay.

Three of the players will be in action in smaller events next week while the titans of the tour battle it out in the second week of the FO. Challenger events are in store for Mehul and Chittoor, while Girsh enters what will hopefully be his final amateur event -- but only if he wins again. A month from now Wimbledon will be upon us, and I'll report back in then. Mehul will continue to work on his clay game as there is a historic opportunity upcoming after that. In August, the summer Olympics beckon in Belgium. No Sri Lankan has ever attempted to qualify for the field of 64 there. Mehul will probably have to go through the qualifying draw to make it, but the chance to represent our nation in the Olympics is definitely worth it. Until then, getting every possible edge on the dirt is his top priority.

[Brian Swartz]

2038 Wimbledon

Amrik Chittoor first faced off against Pamel Bestiavanov(RUS, 108th), roughly same age and skills. Bestianov is a little more gifted physically and more familiar with grass-court tennis. A tight match, but Chittoor failed to break through and get his first Slam win, losing 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-7(1), 7-5. This was about as good a chance as Chittoor is likely to get to win a match, it's pretty clear he just isn't quite good enough at this point.

Anil Mehul had a good draw against Arvid Hjoch(SWE, 59th). Could have been better but also could have been a good deal worse. On paper it looked like a very even match, little to choose between them. Mehul has the better baseline game and more grass familiarity, a surface that Hjoch basically completely ignores: the Swede is the better server as always seems to be the case and a hair faster around the court. It was an epic match and could have gone either way. In the end, Mehul prevailed in his first five-setter, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(7), 3-6, 10-8!! Only one point separated them, 178-177 in total. On this day, Mehul was a little better on the big points especially the break chances, and that was the(very narrow) difference.

In the second round, 11-seed Viktor Goncharenko of Russia waited. In this case the athletic gap between the players was simply too much to overcome. Goncharenko cruised to a comprehensive 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 stroll of a win. The loss hurt Mehul a bit in the rankings as he made it to the third round last year, but it is a third straight second-round showing at the Slams which is a pretty good indicator of where he is right now. Last year he caught a really low seed in the first round, which is the kind of fortuitious draw it would take to have a real chance of getting further. He's still getting better though, and that should continue for a few more years so it's still uncertain what his ceiling is.

Rankings Update

A little over halfway through the year now. Here's how the picture has changed in the last few months:

Anil Mehul -- 62nd to 67th singles, 192nd to 182nd doubles. Basically stagnant overall, but the clay season will never be much of a strong point for him. Whether or not he moves up much this year will be determined by the North American hardcourt swing coming up in a few weeks.

Amrik Chittoor -- 92nd to 83rd singles, 850th to 549th doubles. Continues to move up steadily. I think the gap between the two here is greater than the rankings show.

Anil Manohar -- 490th to 534th singles, 712th to 1034th doubles. Continuing to fall off the cliff, even the better futures events are now beyond
him. Right now Manohar is working on his doubles game in view of becoming a well-rounded trainer in a few years time.

Girish Girsh -- 1571st to 958th singles, 3335th to 2434th doubles. Girish will take his first plunge into low-level futures play in a couple of weeks. I fully expect him to catch Manohar in the rankings by the end of the year.

Top Ten

1. Gabriel Alastra(28, ARG) -- 10,280

Alastra won Wimbledon for his sixth Grand Slam title, making him 10th all time in that category.

2. David Prieto(27, ESP) -- 9,990

A four-set loss to Alastra at Wimbledon prevented him from taking the top spot. Nonetheless, these two have separated themselves a bit from the other challengers recently.

3. Mick Elder(27, USA) -- 8,710

4. David Prieto(27, ESP) -- 8,530

5. Bjorn Benda(24, DEU) -- 7,100

Benda, a clay specialist, broke through with a win at the French Open for his first Slam crown. This cements his place of the most accomplished player of the 'next generation'.

6. Oliver Challenger(28, USA) -- 6,300

7. Jens Oberg(23, SWE) -- 4,470

8. Eric Gorritepe(32, ESP) -- 4,450

Up a couple spots in the last few months, he refuses to go away completely.

9. Perry Hogue(24, USA) -- 4,270

10. Spasoje Kucerovic(27, SRB) -- 4,070

There's a big gap between 6th-7th and also between 10th and 11th. This could very well be the same group of ten players straight through the end of the year. After a semifinal run at Wimbledon, 24-year-old Evgeni Topolski of Russia looks like the only player capable of crashing the party.

Next up is the Olympics in Belgium in a few weeks, and then after that in short succession will come the hard-court masters in Canada and Cincinatti, followed almost immediately by the US Open.

[Brian Swartz]

The week before the Olympic event, Girish Girsh played in his first futures event(third tier). It was on hardcourt in China, and he benefited from the fact that it was a busy week schedule-wise in garnering the fourth seed. Girsh faced only wild cards and qualifiers en route to the final, stomping all of them with ease. Once there, he faced Russian Felix Demidenko, and won a tighter match but still in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4 to claim the title! Girsh moved up to the low 700s in the rankings after this, and will probably move up to a second-tier futures in his next event.

The week prior to that, there had been an interesting situation as Mehul was entered into a big challenger event in Sopot, Poland. After a couple of wins against low-ranking players, he again met Swede Arvid Hjoch, the same player he had beaten in the epic five-setter in the first round at Wimbledon less than a month prior. Hjoch would normally be the favorite as an extreme clay-court specialist, and probably would have won had he not been mismanaged. In the second week of Wimbledon, just two weeks prior, he had played in and won another big challenger event, taking the crown in both singles and doubles. A job well done, but he needed more time off to play at his best. A player who over-commits will soon find themselves not just suffering in terms of performance but also not learning as much as they otherwhise would from the match. That's exactly what happened as Mehul upset him for the second time, 6-4, 6-4. Hjoch's manager, who goes by the handle of Karma -- I swear I didn't make that up -- is presently ranked 19th, while I am 30th and have pretty much stagnated there for the last several months. I was a little surprised that such a fairly high-ranking manager(there are 124 with a positive score, i.e. more points than you start with by default) made a mistake like this.

Irish veteran James Fenney fell in the semis, and Mehul came up just short of what would have been the biggest title of his career. World no. 36 Cestmir Marcek of Czechoslovakia ended that bid 4-6, 6-4, 7-5. A little disappointing, but it was still huge for Mehul to reach the final of a big clay challenger like this.

2038 Olympics

The day arrived, and history was made as Anil Mehul became the first Sri Lankan to ever participate in the tennis Olympics. In doubles he teamed with usual partner Prakash Nilima and lost a close match in the first round, but that was not unexpected. In singles, his first matchup wasn't a bad one at all, defeating American Pierce Gaskell fairly easily. Australian Arsenio Antuofermo was next, whom Mehul had beaten in a competitive first-rounder at the Miami Masters last spring. This one was tougher, but he eventually prevailed again 6-7(4), 7-5, 6-3 for a comeback win.

Suddenly he found himself in the last 16 of the tournament! This was much more than he had expected coming in, winning one match would have been a success. Croatian (11) Strahina Kecic raced through a quick first set and survived a tight tiebreak to end the fun there, 6-0, 7-6(6). As important and historic as this run was, it will also have far-reaching consequences in Mehul's career. He moved up to a Sri Lanka record 48th after the tournament, the first player ever to crack the Top 50. It also forced him into making a scheduling decision. Continuing to play singles and doubles consistently will put him in a situation like Hjoch where he is overplaying and getting suboptimal results. From the time he entered the tour as a junior, tournaments have primarily served the function of getting him match experience, with the scheduling focus on training to improve.

That will continue to happen, but at this point he has reached the elite of tennis and the most important factor now is results. Anil Mehul will be entering in all the big singles events from here on out throughout at least the rest of his prime, only playing doubles as warranted during 'slow' parts of the season. His next major goal is to reach the Top 30, a ranking which allows for being seeded in Slams and the larger Masters, with the bonus of avoiding the top players until much later in the tournament. Big things are ahead for him if these last couple of events are any proper indication.

[Brian Swartz]

I decided to combine both Masters events into one report, since they are back-to-back and there wasn't a whole lot else going on.

Canada Masters

First up for our hero was dynamic Argentinian qualifier Robert Garcia. After surviving a first-set tiebreak, it was a quick finish. Then awaited the greatest of them all, Eric Gorritepe. At this point in his career he's still more than Mehul's equal, probably the only player in the world that is better from the baselilne. A little surprisingly, Mehul saved 11 of 13 break points in scoring his first top ten win in a very tight struggle, 7-6(8), 7-6(7). It could have gone either way, and any time you beat the GOAT, even at 32, it's a huge feather to put in your cap. Topoloski was up next, and it was the same story: close, but not close enough. The Russian won it 6-4, 6-4, going on to win the tournament with only Mick Elder able to give him a tougher match. With the victory, his first masters title, Topoloski crashes the party now at #9 in the rankings.

With back-to-back showings in the round of 16 and the win over Gorritepe, Mehul is seriously starting to move up in the world.

Cincinatti Masters

31-year-old Arnaldo Barranco(PER, 29th) is the kind of player that has become almost routine, and while he slipped in the second set Mehul was clearly the better player and advanced in three to face world no. 3 Mick Elder for the second time. The last meeting was the French Open over a year ago, when Elder surrendered just three games in as many sets. Time to see how far he's come. It was closer this time, but the titans of the sport are beyond Mehul's grasp yet, and he lost in the second round here 6-3, 6-4. With probably the best serve in the game and a partisan crowd behind him, the result was virtually foregone for Elder but it was a competitive match at least. Total points were 66-56; Mehul belongs on the court with the top guys now, but still has work to do in order to catch them.

Our hero is set to go into the US Open around 40th in the world, still a little bit out of the seeded positions. After that, the WTC picks up again with Sri Lanka looking to extend their win streak and continue to move up in the pecking order.

[britrock88]

I've jumped in (to Game World 2) and am working with a couple young'ns myself! We'll see if I can get the hang of this...

[Brian Swartz]

Cool, let me know if you have any questions. One piece of advice is that I would make sure you have one older player.

[britrock88]

I jumped in with a 14yo and a 16yo. Have them in AMAs and JG4s currently, and getting a lot of practice in on clay.

I do have another world left to play in, where I can jigger up my set-up. Why specifically do you recommend an older guy?

[Brian Swartz]

If you want to get the most out of your younger players over the course of their career, you need a trainer. Why? Because you get more experience for matches with a trainer than you do from friendly matches. As a talented player develops, they eventually reach the point(when your endurance gets over 3 you will probably start to notice this) where even if you have them constantly playing in practice tournaments in between real events you still need to supplement that with friendly matches to keep them from wasting days(i.e., running out of fatigue which is always a bad thing because it means they lost training time and gained less experience than they could have).

Anil Mehul will not be as good as he could have been, because he's never had a trainer(Manohar is still a little over 4 game-years from being ready to hang 'em up and take on that role, and even then he'll be a good-not-great one). I've also screwed up maybe a dozen or so weeks over the course of his career and not entered him in events :(. But you know, you live and learn, and that's why I play in the slow time control.

Essentially this is what I recommend for starting out:

** Best 14-year-old you can find. Be prepared to fire them if you find a better one. New players join the pool every few game weeks on Monday.
** Best prime player(i.e. around 25) you can find with the rest of your available points. Their purpose is to gain you points so you can buy a better one.
** As soon as you have enough points, get the best prime player available. You won't be able to get a good one, but I think in my game world it was around 700 points or so that the best ones went for. You are looking for the player with the best potential as a trainer.
** Once you get that first trainer, you can train new young players better.

There's a certain 'build-up' involved and I'm not all the way there yet. But the bottom-line idea is this: you can't make a player the 'best they can be' until you have a top trainer, so getting the best trainer you can as soon as you can is IMO a key priority. Then you can use that trainer to better work on a next-gen player, giving them better skills and they will eventually become a better trainer than the first guy ... and so on until you've got a truly elite trainer going and then you just need to keep the system humming. That's why I hang on to Anil Manohar even though he's struggling to stay in the Top 500 and declining all the time. I need to max out his abilities for training so that the next young prodigy I bring up can benefit from his skills. When I do that(I think it's going to be at the end of 2039, or a little over a game year from now) I'll post something about the results, practice vs. training matches, to give an idea of how much of a difference it makes. All the top managers have top trainers(usually 5.0). There's a formula on the site for how the trainer ability is determined. Right now Manohar would be a 3.8 on the 5-point scale, I should be able to get him into the low 4s.

I probably should also point out here that while I'm sure you'll develop your own system for what events to enter players in when(I'm still working on mine), pay attention to their form(look at the documentation for where the penalties and bonuses kick in if you don't know) so that you aren't overplaying or underplaying them, and also keep in mind you get more experience from losing than winning. If you are winning the title at almost every event, you aren't playing the right ones(unless of course you are the #1 player in the world) :).

[Izulde]

Y'all are wanting to hook me in.

[Brian Swartz]

Nah, I'd much rather read you swearing about your latest FM club :P

2038 US OPEN

The final Slam of the year arrived with the luck of the draw a paramount consideration. There are two kinds of players for whom it is particularly important, both represented here. At the lower end, Amrik Chittoor is among the lower-ranked players in the draw and, absent a favorable draw, has basically no real chance of advancing. On the other end of the scale, Anil Mehul is one of the best unseeded players and has the potential to win a few matches or go out immediately depending on who he gets. It's important to avoid the titans for as long as possible, as in last year's straight-set beatdown by Alastra in his opening match.

As it happened, the draw was fairly kind for both players this time, though it could also have been better in either case. Chittor was paired with Egon Bengtsson(FIN, 79th), a clay-court specialist who is more powerful but not adept at hard-court tennis and a player who has been known to choke away matches in the key moments. It's still unlikely he'll avoid another loss but there's a chance for a mild upset.

Mehul was set to face off against Pavel Bestemianov(RUS, 100th), a young player that he should slightly outclass across the board and who slightly overplayed coming into the event, so he won't quite be at his best. A win there, and he'd meet at worst the lowest seed in the tournament, Switzerland's Vito Bonamoni, against whom he'd also have good chances. The bad news was that if that went well, the gravy train was expected to end there with a third-round date against world No. 4 David Prieto of Spain.

First Round

Chittoor not only broke his perfect 0-3 Slam record come in, but he did in a grand style with a fairly shocking victory over Bengtsson, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4. I hadn't bothered to look further ahead in his section, but he'll next be a sacrifical lamb for 5-seed Oliver Challenger(USA). Mehul handed out a bagel to start and cruised through the next two sets for an easy straight-sets win, surrendering only five total games. A great start for both players.

Second Round

Chittoor was handed two breadsticks and a final-set bagel, winning only 38 of 124 points against Challenger. A predictable beat-down, but for him of course the event was made by advancing past the first round. The first set between Mehul and Bonamoni went down to the wire, with a break in the 10th game the only difference. Anil was able to put more and more pressure on his opponent's serve as the match went on, and scored a fairly tough 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win to advance to the third round without the loss of a set. Unfortunately, Prieto is there as expected, and has surrendered just five games all tournament.

Third Round

The expected straight-set defeat happened, but Mehul took another step in giving Prieto some serious competition. The final line was 7-6(1), 6-2, 7-5, a very credible effort against the fourth-ranked player in the world. He's inching closer all the time.

[Brian Swartz]

Rankings Update -- 2038 3Q

The third quarter is in the books, and there have been some surprises in the last few months for my Sri Lankan quartet.

Anil Mehul -- 67th to 35th singles, 182nd to 294th doubles. He's obviously really turned the corner here in singles, and it's an interesting and open question whether Mehul will be seeded at the AO to begin 2039. A couple of Tier 1 Challenger titles from last year will come off the slate in the next couple of months, and it's possible but probably unlikely he'll be able to replace those points in the Shanghai and Paris Masters, the two big events left in the year that he'll be playing. More likely a no than a yes, but there's still a lot of tennis to be played and he might need to throw a 250 event or a big challenger in there to stay match-fresh ... we'll see. Either way, there's no question Mehul should be positioned for a serious assault against the best in the world next year.

Amrik Chittoor -- 83rd to 87th singles, 549th to 259th doubles. A nice rise in doubles but pretty much still hanging out in the journeyman ranks. Whether he can build on his USO win remains to be seen.

Anil Manohar -- 534th to 376th singles, 1034th to 1337th doubles. A surprising crown at a recent Tier 2 futures event reversed his gradual decline for the moment, but it's a temporary stay.

Girish Girsh -- 958th to 525th singles, 2434th to 2006th doubles. Since turning pro, Girsh has lost just the one amateur match. Just last week, during the second half of the US Open, he moved up to a Tier 2 futures and promptly ran the table there as well. A quarterfinal match proved testy as he didn't show up early, dropping four straight games and eventually the first set before rallying for a fairly easy win. In the final, he met top seed Jesper Fine of Norway, a good test as Fine is ranked 212th in the world. Girsh prevailed in a tough three-set match that could have gone either way. Beating a player like Fine means he is probably going to settle in as a big futures/small challenger kind of tweener player for a while once his ranking gets up there. Right now he's blazing a trail upwards, and will give one of the big futures events a shot next time out.


World Top Ten

1. Mick Elder(USA) -- 10,930

Elder took the top spot for the first time after a thrilling conclusion to the US Open saw him beat Prieto and then Benda, both matches going the full five sets.

2. Gabriel Alastra(ARG) -- 10,660

A semifinal loss to Benda at the USO lost him the top spot, but he's still a major threat anywhere.

3. David Almagro(ESP) -- 8,340

Almagro did not show up to defend his title, which cost him dearly. One wonders if his manager has for some reason gone MIA. It happens sometimes.

4. David Prieto(ESP) -- 8,140

5. Bjorn Benda(DEU) -- 7,880

The next generation is no longer a thing that's coming: it's here. Benda may well take over the #1 spot by early next year at the rate he's going. A semi-final win over Alastra proved he's got the game to win not just on the dirt but across multiple surfaces.

6. Oliver Challenger(USA) -- 5,335

7. Eric Gorritepe(ESP) -- 4,665

8. Perry Hogue(USA) -- 4,300

9. Evgeni Topolski(RUS) -- 4,135

The other top player in the same stable as Almagro, Topolski missed the USO as well and the top ten's newest member a chance to move up.

10. Spasoje Kucerovic(SRB) -- 3,670

Kucerovic's slot may change hands quite a bit. Oberg, Goncharenko, and rising Spaniard David Alvarez are all one big tournament from taking it. Oberg appears to have peaked early though and the other two probably aren't going to get all that much better than they are right now, so none of them are going to be the next big star of tennis or anything.

[Brian Swartz]

2038 WTC -- Level 3 Quarterfinals

The matchup with Canada figured to be another romp for Sri Lanka. Their best singles player, Joshua Tepest, is barely a Top 200 guy and i thought maybe at best he might be able to upset Chittoor, but we'd still get at least three wins minimum from the other singles matches. The one surprise was the selection of Chittoor/Nilima as the doubles team. Mehul is actually only the third-highest ranking doubles player -- barely, literally one spot below Nilima -- but for him to have more rest from match play to focus on his singles career is really a blessing at this point for him personally. Not so much for the nation but it's only a small handicap.

Monday: A. Mehul d. P. Baudoin, 6-2, 6-0, 6-1
Tuesday: A. Chittoor d. J. Tepest, 6-4, 6-1, 6-0
Wednesday: A. Chittoor/P. Nilima d. M. Foy/P. Baudoin, 6-3, 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
Thursday: A. Mehul d. J. Tepest, 6-0, 6-1, 6-3
Friday: A. Chittoor d. P. Baudoin, 6-1, 6-0, 6-1

A 5-0 blanking as Sri Lanka moves on to the semifinals, confirming our place in the promotion playoffs at the end of the year! There was plenty of drama in the doubles match, which the Canadians lost via 19 double faults and only 8 of 25 BP converted more than we won it. The singles matches were all dominated. Sri Lanka is up another 5 spots to 50th in the world rankings.

Next up is Austria, who defeated Romania 4-1 for their part and is the top competition. On paper, they have a very similar lineup to ours. Everyone will need to be at their best. In order for that to happen, Mehul needs to get at least a couple more matches in, so he'll be in St. Petersburg for a 250-level event next week with the semis coming up the week after that. Everyone else has the week off for training.

[law90026]

Signed up for an account because of this dynasty!

[Brian Swartz]

That's a great compliment, and more than I expected. Thanks!

The story continues, with some pretty high drama ...

In St. Petersburg, Mehul did a little better than expected. He was seeded 8th, and blasted through the first two rounds, meeting 4-seed Falk Gries(DEU) in the quarters. Gries had overplayed badly coming in and while he pushed the second set to a tiebreak, he fell pretty meekly as well. The semis brought a rematch with Viktor Goncharenko, the top seed and world no. 12. He had beaten Anil in straight sets to end his Wimbledon bid in the second round. This time he was not quite as sharp, and the surface was more to Mehul's liking. It didn't really seem to matter though. The gap in athleticism led to a similar result ... or it least it appeared to be. Down 6-3, 4-1, Mehul just kept fighting and fighting. He made his way to a tiebreak, then trailed 3-0 and 5-2 there before rattling off the last five points to take the set and force a decisive third!

He had to fight harder than his higher-ranked opponent to hold, but he held his nerve and the decider remained on serve until the ninth game. Anil raced out to a 0-40 lead, missed the first two break chances but snagged the third to serve for the match. And that's when the wheels came off. He just couldn't finish, dropping the last three games for a heartbreaking 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-5 defeat. He was literally at the finish line and couldn't just serve it out. Still a very good result, good enough to nearly replace one of those challenger titles he'll be losing the points from, but that close to beating an athlete like Goncharenko, it's a tough loss to swallow and he won't soon forget it. He'd have had great chances to take his first pro title had he been able to finish off that last game. Sucks.

2038 WTC -- Level 3 Semifinals

There was no time to cry over the loss. One thing it did do was ensure he'd be match-fresh for what looked to be Sri Lanka's toughest WTC test. 21st-ranked Austria had won the luck of the draw when it came to surfaces, as this tie would be played on clay. Led by world No. 37 Julian Hammerstein, one of the physically strongest players in the world and very mentally tough, they also had a solid #2 singles in 89th-ranked Hannes Frankl. Both are far more adept on the dirt than Mehul & Chittoor, and objectively Sri Lanka are probably slight underdogs here. Since our re-entry into the WTC nearly two years ago, the national streak stands at a fantastic 11 straight victories, with no more than a single match lost in any of them. But none of those tests have been as stern as this one. This is the sixth straight year for Austria at Level 3, having been bounced down from Level 2 in 2032. Like us, they are getting better all the time and in a perfect world, both would promote up as we're clearly the class of Level 3 this year. That's to be determined in the playoffs down the road, but the winner here will improve their matchup and ranking when it comes time for that.

Monday: A. Mehul d. H. Frankl, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2

The pressure was on Mehul here as it was really a must-win match. He brought it home as expected, winning as many points on Frankl's serve as the Austrian did.

Tuesday: J. Hammerstein d. A. Chittoor, 6-1, 6-2, 6-1

This was also expected. I hoped it would be closer, but it was never a contest. Both of the reverse singles matchups could go either way, so tied at 1-all Sri Lanka went into the doubles match knowing it could well decide the outcome.

Wednesday: P. Nilima/A. Mehul d. T. Weidman/H. Frankl, 6-4, 7-5, 6-1

I have no idea why Mehul was moved back into the doubles team in place of Chittoor this time, but they got the job done with a vital win to move us one rubber away from advancing.

Thursday: J. Hammerstein d. A. Mehul, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4

The marquee clash of the week offered Mehul a chance to clinch the tie, but it didn't get off to a good start. Hammerstein's power was too much to deal with in the first set, but he quickly bounced back in the second by taking the first three games. He couldn't hold the lead, including blowing triple break point with a chance to get even again as the Austrian was trying to serve it out. That was pretty much the match. Hammerstein just bludgeoned him around the court, handing Mehul his first WTC singles defeat after 25 straight victories these past two years.

So for the first time, Sri Lanka has lost two matches in the same WTC tie and they are forced into a decisive fifth rubber. Going into it, Nigeria had already eliminated New Zealand in the other semifinal with a stunning upset by Vittoz over Anutofermo providing a 3-1 edge on Thursday. Frankl is the stronger player and much more proficient on clay, so he was holding most of the cards here. Chittoor has a slight advantadge in his baseline game and is also a little better mentally, so the one hope was that if Frankl had an off day and Amrik could prevail in the big moments of the match, he could pull off the upset and we would advance. The smart money though was on Hannes Frankl and team Austria.

Friday: H. Frankl d. A. Chittoor, 7-5, 6-1, 6-1

Yeah that was pretty disappointing. After putting up a good fight in the first set it was pretty obvious that Chittoor just plain gave up. Austria wins 3-2, moving on the finals while we can only wait for the playoffs. Sri Lanka drops a single spot to 51st in the rankings. Taking a look at the nations we might face then, I think we're basically a shoo-in for promotion, though if we've learned one thing this week it's never count your chickens before ,... you know.

The playoff tie won't arrive until the last week of the year, over two months from now. We've got an off week coming up next, to be followed by the Shanghai Masters and then the Paris Masters three weeks after that. During Shanghai Girsh will be in action in his next futures event, while Chittoor will be hitting the challenger circuit for the rest of the year. Both now have some points to make up, especially since they won't be participating in the WTC Finals.

[Brian Swartz]

During the unpleasantness of our WTC loss to Austria, I noticed that Anil Mehul had crossed a threshold for the first time. He's now entered the third of the five career stages in Rocking Rackets(as defined by me). This seemed a good time to describe these stages as it's the first time I'm going through the process with a strong player.

First Stage: Rapid Improvement The skills of a young player increase as does his physical maturity, allowing him to access more and more of his potential. From entering the junior tour at age 14, and of course even before that really, all players spend several years in this stage.

Second Stage: Seasoning, with Modest Improvement Once full physical maturity hits, the age varies depending on the player but with the long-term view and late-bloomers like Mehul and Girsh that make the best professionals, it's usually sometime around age 20 that this begins. The technical skillset continues to improve, but the physical aspect won't get any better. This is the point when the most training can be done, and therefore at which it is most important to have a trainer since professional and practice tournaments are not enough to keep them fully busy and engaged. This is the stage where Mehul has been until the last week or two.

Third Stage: Beginnings of physical decline, slow improvement. This stage, which usually lasts another several years and is basically the player's prime, is defined by the beginnings of decline in the physical skills. Endurance, which governs how tired a player gets from training, is affected at double the rate so eventually there will be a significant effect on how much the body recovers after training, further retarding development. It's very gradual at this stage and continued experience and progression of the player's understanding of the game, consistency in shotmaking, etc. are able to more than overcome the effects of Father Time. The player will continue to get better, but not as quickly as before since the better one gets the more effort is required to improve that little bit more, and erosion due to the fact that athletic ability is just starting to wane bit by tiny bit means that more and more it is the technical skills that must be relied upon.

Most reach this sooner than Mehul, but by age 23(he's 22 and a half) it has caught up with everyone. He has 635 career matches, 331 as a junior and nearly as many with 304 as a pro, and the miles you put on your body catch up with everyone. Manohar, by comparison, even though a far less successful player, has over a thousand matches now and this doesn't include all the practice and training, just official tournaments. Nobody is immune to the ticking clock, you can only achieve what you can while the body allows it. Usually this runs until some point in the late 20s.

As an idea of the numbers, entering the tie against Austria Mehul was at a career-high 31st. Only two players(18th-ranked Antonin Iglar and 27th-ranked John Condon) above him were younger. Meanwhile, just over half(16 of 30) of those above him are 28 or older, definitely on the decline phase of their career or at the very least about to embark on it. Several have passed 30 years of age. At this point, he'll continue to move up for a while merely by holding off the younger players after him, and just letting the vets slide on by during their twilight. Speaking of which, that brings up:

Fourth Stage: Increasing decline. Eventually, the body's athletic ability decreases to the point where technical improvements can no longer compensate. At this point, the downside of a player's career has been reached and all that can be done is to minimize the rate of decline. Generally speaking it's a process that accelerates over time. Manohar of course is nearing the end of his fall. A world-class player can still remain relevant for a few years -- Gorritepe as an extreme example is still Top 10 and a threat at the smaller 500 and 250-level professional events some 5 years or more after reaching his peak -- but nobody can reverse or stall he process entirely. By the time a player reaches the mid-30s, no matter how good they once were they are no longer relevant at the highest levels of the international stage. This will last until age 40, when all players auto-retire if they haven't chosen to so sooner.

Fifth Stage: Training others. A considerable amount of experience must be built up to become a trainer(I tested this out with Manohar and it took him half of year of not investing in any other improvement to acquire the necessary amount), which as mentioned above must be done prior to turning 40. A player who becomes a trainer can remain in that role until age 60, and is invaluable to the development of strong players in particular during the latter part of their first stage as well as the second and third stages. Eventually, by the later parts of the fourth stage, endurance will decline enough that trainers are no longer needed but for most of a top player's career they are beneficial. Lesser players, who often simply don't have the physical durability i.e. endurance to train as much, don't need the tutelage to nearly the same degree.

This may be of use to those of you who've signed up: I find the process of discovery interesting.

[Young Drachma]

Oh this is super interesting! Never heard of this game but this sounds fascinating. I can't imagine having time for it, but...I'm gonna check it out and follow along too.

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

Anil Mehul's draw really illustrated where he is in the tennis world right now. He could lose in the first round, or go deep, with each round presented the promise of a closely-fought challenge for him to navigate. First up was a rematch with Gries, who he'd beaten in the St. Petersburg QF. This was the German's best surface though, and he wasn't as worn as he had been then. Each set was decided by an early break, with Gries taking the first and Mehul coming back to take the second and an early lead in the third. The next two service games for him decided the matter, he had to fight off a break chance in each but pulled through, 3-6,6-3, 6-3.

Another player trying to move up waited in the second round, 13-seeded David Alvarez of Spain. He's one of a group of four players fighting to be in the Top 10 and separated by just 105 out of about 3500 points each. At this point of their respective careers it's pretty much a dead heat between these two. The main difference is, Alvarez would be highly favored on clay as he's a specialist on the dirt, but hardcourt or indoor and Mehul probably has the upper hand. That's the way it played out, with a tight 7-5, 6-4 win moving him on to the third round.

It's the third time in the last few months(Olympics, Canada Masters) that he's reached the final 16 at a big event. He lost on both of those occasions. Providing the obstacle here was world no. 6 Oliver Challenger, who had recently annihilated Chittoor in the second round at the USO. Mehul had never played him before. For the past couple of years, Challenger has been the best of the players who didn't quite have enough to challenge the Big 3, then Big 4, and now Big 5 with Benda joining the top tier of those competing for #1. Nearing his 29th birthday now, Challenger is starting to show his age and slide down towards the rest of the pack. He still figured to have a modest edge in strength and mental toughness to get him through, but an upset was not out of the question.

A slow start dropped the first three games, and while Mehul pushed hard a couple times he only had one break chance in the first set, missing it. After having to save a pair himself in the third game of the second set, he finally broke through and got Challenger's serve in the fourth game, though it took four more chances to do it. The American veteran found another gear at that point, rattling off four straight and eventually taking the match 6-3, 6-4. Challenger is still clearly the better player.

It was another solid result that should keep Mehul solidly in the mid-30s or thereabouts heading into the final big event of his personal season in Paris three weeks from now. There's a logjam right now with spots 28-37 separated by only 105 points, and the situation is very fluid. Three chances to make the quarters, and all denied so far.

The tournament as a whole showed how topsy-turvy things are at the top of the sport. Many of the top players lost sets early, including no. 5 Bjorn Benda, the closet thing there is right now to a player ready to subject the tour. World no. 1 Mick Elder was sent packing in the third round with surprising ease by Goncharenko, 6-2, 6-3. The post-Gorritepe era is defined more by chaos than any one dominant player. For a year or so Alastra was that guy, but no more. Any one of several players has a chance at winning the big events -- or going out early. In the end another blow was struck for the old guard, with no. 3 Almagro topping second-ranked Alastra in the final. Mehul temporarily cracked the Top 30 at a career-high 29th -- I say temporarily because next week the first of the two challenger titles from last year will drop off and he'll be back down to the mid-30s or so again.

In England, Girsh finally met his match -- barely -- in the final of his tier 1 futures event when he lost to fatigued American Joseph Skirrow in a tight third-set tiebreak. Skirrow is a player to remember, as he's 2-3 months younger than Girsh and looks like he may well prove a potential rival and foil years down the road. Girsh will have another futures event next, and probably his first challenger before the year is out.

[britrock88]

I have my now 17yo to #60 in juniors and climbing. Won both the singles and doubles title at a JG4 hardcourt event in Miami. A couple months later, he won a JG2 tourney on hardcourt at Sfax. Now, to manage his match fatigue while also getting him into the premier junior-level tournaments in the months before he turns 18.

[Brian Swartz]

Sounds like good progress! FYI he can still enter tournaments up until the end of the calendar year in which he turns 18, not just until the birthdate. In other words, if he turns 18 in the spring, he can still participate until the end of the year. Whether it's a good idea for him to do that or not is another matter and will depend on the player.

In considering my players the last few days, I've come to a decision which I'll mention now partly because it provides a good opportunity to mention some research that goes along with it, as it may be useful to the others who have decided to join other game worlds.

Current ages of my players, as I type this:

Anil Manohar -- 35 years, 45 weeks
Anil Mehul -- 22 years, 30 weeks
Amrik Chittoor -- 21 years, 35 weeks
Girish Girsh -- 19 years, 24 weeks

Obviously Mehul-Chittoor-Girsh are bunched very closely together. In about three years game time, Mehul+Girsh will be a very potent combo, but what of the next generation? There is one other quality young player, which another manager snatched up before I could get to them -- Shreya Ujjaval, presently 15 years old. I can't depend on him for a number of reasons -- the manager may keep them out of the WTC(though this is unwise, more on this in a moment) and they are presently being poorly managed, entered in tournaments Ujjaval isn't ready for yet. Should still probably become a Top 100 player but not much more. Ujjaval has a bit above-average mental toughness, good but not great athlete similar to Mehul, and excellent but not elite in terms of durability. Definitely has an elite feel for the game, a little better than even any of my current players. So I wish I'd have been able to grab him, but it didn't happen.

In terms of getting a next-generation player myself, the question is timing. At the end of this year a newcomer would be 5 years, maybe a bit more, younger than Girsh. I don't really want to go any more than that, otherwhise it's too big of a gap to have two players close to their prime. Also, with Manohar having about four years left before he becomes a trainer, that's nearly a perfect window for having the new player be ready for a trainer about the time he's ready to start doing that job, and then there would be another decent gap there with that same four years back to another youngster -- it just seems like the right time. It will hurt Sri Lanka a bit in the WTC since I won't be able to control Chittoor's readiness or training anymore at that point, though he'll still be playing for us until he is surpassed by Girsh in the rankings. That's one reason why I want to wait until the end of the year, so that I can have some control over what happens in the WTC Promotion Playoff.

All of that leads into me really wanting to pool all the knowledge I've acquired about how to train players well, since with the next youngster getting training assistance I'll be able to get them closer to their maximum potential. I took a look at the experience my players were getting from different kinds of matches, and came up with some numbers.

** Doubled tire out a player less, but give less experience as well, ending up at the same basic ratios so doubles/singles is not a consideration.

** Having close matches is important. In all categories, any match in which both players win at least 40% of the points gives the full amount of experience. If there is a greater split than that(i.e. 70-30 or whatever) a sliding scale diminishes the amount a player learns from it.

Practice Tournaments -- I used these as the baseline. They certainly are and should be the most common for players coming up. So I gave this baseline a 100% score. 250-level events train at the same rate. Experience is given based on points played in all cases.

Friendly Matches -- The court of last resort as I've mentioned previously when practice/regular tournaments don't use up all of a player's energy for a week. These only tire a player out at two-thirds the standard rate, but unfortunately they only provide one-third of the experience for a 50% overall training efficiency. Worse, once a player reaches about the Top 50 as Mehul has, it becomes more difficult to find a quality opponent for these. Lower-level friendly match partners are often drawn, resulting in even worse efficiency as they are often blowout matches. This underlines the importance of ...

Training Sessions -- These are not matches per se, all that you get is experience gained and fatigue used. I'm still checking on these by looking at high-level players in my game world, but from what I'm seeing so far as a rough guideline, a good(4.0) trainer gives about 65% of a good practice match on average, with an elite(5.0) trainer at about 80-85%. I don't think it is possible to have a trainer over 5.0, as I've seen several at that level but none above it. I've spotted trainers as low as 3.1, but this is rare. After all even a career journeyman-at-best like Manohar now sits at what would be a 3.9, and I'm still working on him.

Amateurs/Low Juniors(JG1-JG5) -- These are strange, and present a mystery. Most are just below a practice match at a 93% score, but some of them gave less experience at 81% and I couldn't figure out why. There didn't seem to be a pattern between them, my only guess is that the lower-yield ones had really high levels of double faults. Regardless, in terms of gaining experience and getting better, a junior player will do better in practice tournaments than actual junior events. So unless they are a junior-focused players playing in the big tournaments, they should only be playing enough to keep form decent.

Futures/Challengers/500s/Qualifying/WTF Round Robin -- Don't ask me why the 500s were lumped in here, it's probably an unresolved bug. Anyway, any matches from these events all came in at the 93% rate. The round-robin matches from the elite World Tour Finals is even more of a head-scratcher, but it seems the game treats them as qualifying. All qualifying(Grand Slam on all the way down) is treated the same in terms of efficiency of training from the experience.

Masters Series/WTF SF and F/JGA -- Here's where it starts getting better. Once a player can compete at this level they gain 140% of the experience an identical practice tournament match would produce.

Grand Slam/WTC/JTC/JGS -- The world team events, professional and junior, and the slams at both levels are as one would expect them to be the pinnacle here. These produce 185% of the per-point experience, and when you add in the fact that at the pro level they are best-of-5 not best-of-3 sets, putting in competitive matches in these prestigious tournaments can really rack up the experience. In a situation such as my game world is in with a number of top players and a lot of late-round Slam matches going the distance, the top competitors are essentially constantly pushing each other to get just that little bit better.

At this point I think I've learned about 95% of what I can learn in terms of training players up better, and I'm ready to hit the ground running with the next stud. I hope.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters

The last Masters event of the year is unique in several aspects, and relatively speaking fairly chaotic -- especially for player in Mehul's ranking range. It is the only Masters event played on the indoor/carpet surface, and advantage as he's fairly strong in that area. It also has the smallest field, just 48 entries. 16 of these are seeded, the next 16 are direct entry but four of those are wild cards. Then there are also 16 qualifiers, and Mehul found himself as one of the best in this group. In reality all that really meant was an extra, nearly-free 25 point for going through against much weaker players in qualifying.

Since all of the seeds get first-round byes though, after a double-bagel win in qualifying he had good chances for a fairly easy match to start the main draw. What he got though was French wild-card Roman Iraugui(41st), a player who is on his way up and near the peak of his powers. In overall physicality he's one of the best out there and frankly should be a higher-ranked player. Especially with the home crowd behind him, it looked likely Mehul would be exiting after this match. Iraugui has probably been mismanaged, and he's overplayed some coming into this event but not overly so.

It was not that Mehul didn't have his plusses(better baseline game, more indoor familiarity, perfect preparation coming in), but it with a considerable gap in athleticism and also a smaller one in mental toughness, the Frenchman did appear to be a definite favorite. There may be no surface on which the athletic element means less than lightning-fast indoor, but I was still pretty shocked by the scoreline. Mehul trounced Iraugui, 6-1, 6-1, a pair of breadsticks! The result would have been quite frustrating were I on the other end of it, but in this case of course I was quite pleased.

Up next was 13-seed Jens Oberg of Sweden, a flash-in-the-pan or phoenix type of player who was already on the decline just past his 24th birthday. Oberg had been ranked as high as 7th in the world within the past year. Overall it figured to be a pretty even match with Mehul a slight underdog. Unfortunately this one was a surprise in the other direction with Oberg waltzing through a 6-3, 6-3 win. A late rally by Mehul in the second set was cut short as a double-fault set up match point, and that was it.

With the loss, it is more likely than not that he will not make into the seeds for next year's AO but fall a bit short, though much has yet to be determined. Meanwhile, Amrik Chittoor was in action, entered in a mid-level challenger in Eckental, Germany. He was upset in the quarterfinals in three sets by American Ralph Kippen, a match neither player played well in but one he should have won.

There will now be a break of several weeks leading up to the WTC playoffs, which will once again launch a busy period heading into the next year regardless of what happens there. In the interim there won't be anything bigger than Challengers for any of the players to participate in, so I'll once again recap the results once that important tie arrives.

[britrock88]

Basic questions so that I could maybe peek in to what you're doing. Which game world are you in? And do you actually control WTC setup? If so, is that by virtue of being the #1 manager of Sri Lankan nationality? And do you gain that nationality by managing strictly Sri Lankan players?

[britrock88]

Also, surprising to see that about practice tournaments. With a 15yo and 17yo with relatively low skill, it seems like they would get waxed by whomever they might be paired up with. Would that really be a better option than the JG and AMA tournaments for players that inexperienced?

[Brian Swartz]

** I'm in Game World 1.
** No, I don't control WTC setup. I can only manage the players I can find. For example, I don't manage Prakash Nilima, who has been a fixture on the doubles.
** Practice tournaments pair you off in groups with players of the same basic ranking. They are in groups of usually 6-10, so the highest-ranking 6-10 juniors would play against each other that week, then the next half-dozen or so, etc. Usually this ends up in fairly competitive matchups. Plus, if you are playing JG/AMA's all the time, your form is going to go through the roof, meaning you A) will get penalties to how well you play, and B) won't gain as much experience.

[britrock88]

** I'm in Game World 1.
** No, I don't control WTC setup. I can only manage the players I can find. For example, I don't manage Prakash Nilima, who has been a fixture on the doubles.
** Practice tournaments pair you off in groups with players of the same basic ranking. They are in groups of usually 6-10, so the highest-ranking 6-10 juniors would play against each other that week, then the next half-dozen or so, etc. Usually this ends up in fairly competitive matchups. Plus, if you are playing JG/AMA's all the time, your form is going to go through the roof, meaning you A) will get penalties to how well you play, and B) won't gain as much experience.

Thanks, and good to know about practice tourneys. I've experienced the same thing with the 17yo (Delacave, a Frenchman) and thus far have dealt with it by having him not play back-to-back tourneys frequently. I'll certainly look into the practice tourneys now!

[Brian Swartz]

The brief 'offseason' is now over. The WTC Playoffs are upon us, but first there are other goings-on to get caught up on.

World Tour Finals

This year's final has a couple of interesting things to note, and provides an opportunity to look at the current situation with respect to the 'changing of the guard' Involved in this are essentially three generations of players.

The Greatest

Eric Gorritepe's string of 11 straight WTF events ends this year, though not by much. Sullivan and Prieto each managed 10 appearances, so once again Gorritepe has the top spot in the record books here. He hasn't won a major event in two years now and lost in the round-robin-stage each of the past two seasons, but still finished just 90 points out of the final spot -- not bad for a guy more than four years older than anyone in the field.

Alastra & Co.

Gabriel Alastra comes in with the best chance of taking the year-end #1 for the third straight year. If he makes the final, that spot will be assured, yet for all his success he has never won tennis's 'fifth pillar'. Mick Elder, who took the #1 for several weeks late in the year, was the undefeated champion last year in his debut and will need to do that again to have any realistic chance of getting that perch back. David Almagro, David Prieto, and Oliver Challenger are all making at least their fourth straight appearance. It looks likely to be the last go-round for Challenger, and indeed it could be the final time that this generation of contenders dominates the field. Despite a shocking run to the Paris title a few weeks ago, Spasoje Kucerovic will not be back.

Generation Next

The next-gen players are approximately three years younger than Alastra et al, and only one has been here before: Perry Hogue lost in the round-robin stage last season, upsetting Gorritepe in his final match to keep the legend from making it any further. Bjorn Benda and Evgeni Topolski make their first appearances this time around. All three hope to use this as a springboard to greater success next year.

There are others in the same age group that could make a push next year -- Jens Oberg, David Alvarez, and Viktor Goncharenko, who is particularly noteworthy as he's the best athlete of the bunch. The parity in the top 12-15 right now is extreme, and the difference in those who succeed and those who don't is miniscule. Often proper management and optimal preparation for the big events, or frankly just plain luck is what will matter most over the next year or two.

Round-Robin Stage

Alastra plowed through without losing a match in the first group, not a huge surprise. More surprising was that Bjorn Benda failed to win a set against either the word no. 1 or Oliver Challenger, ending his first WTF as a group play loser. In the second group, the story was Perry Hogue who also went through unbeaten, while defending champion Mick Elder was eliminated on tiebreakers. This assured that Alastra would retain the year-end #1 position.

Elimination Stage

The semifinals were anticlimactic straight-set affairs, and Alastra met Hogue in the final, both men having won all four of their matches to reach this point. Days before his 29th birthday, the Argentine claimed the one big trophy that has eluded him, barely outlasting the American challenger 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(4). He actually lost more points than he won(99-103) but was stronger in the big moments, saving 8 of 10 break points.

Not that there was much doubt about it as it was, but this cements Gabriel Alastra's place as this era's premier player. It also provides him with a considerable cushion in the rankings. Everyone else will be chasing him for a good part of next year at a minimum. Hogue is clearly on the rise after making the final here and in Paris, and wih Topolski also reaching the semifinals that meant two of the three participants of the younger generation acquitted themselves well. Next year, they could well be in the majority here.

[Brian Swartz]

As for my players, Anil Mehul was a victim of a quirk of the ranking system. He was ineligible to play any singles events since he was too highly ranked to play any challengers(top 32 are forbidden). He dropped below that after the last of his challenger titles dropped off, but that was the last week of challengers for the year. To keep himself in proper match shape for the WTC he was forced to play a couple of futures doubles events.

Amrik Chittoor won the mid-level challenger in Toyota, Japan for a second straight year, while Girsh Girsh made another futures final before heading off to his first challenger event in Salzburg. It didn't go well -- he lost in the first round of qualifying. He's at a, well, challenging stage of his career that everyone has to go through. Futures tournaments are a little beneath him, but he's not good enough to move up. Until that changes, he'll be playing mostly futures which at least allow for keeping him in match shape, then doing as many practice weeks as possible in between and throwing in a challenger every once in a while until he can make his breakthrough at that level.

WTC Results & Draw

It was a surprise to nobody to see Austria beat Nigeria 4-1 in the Level 3 championship tie. That set the stage for the playoff draw, which appears to be completely random from everything I can determine. The four nations finishing last in their Level 2 groups and the four semifinalists from Level 3 are thrown into a hopper and paired off. Winners will play Level 2 next year, losers Level 3.

I was very confident of our chances so long as we didn't draw Austria again. The odds were with us, but stranger things have happened. As it ended up, we will face Nigeria. That's very bad luck for them -- we handled them easily earlier in the year and should do so again. They have now made the Level 3 Final two years in a row only to apparently have unfavorable draws in the playoffs essentially wipe out that effort.

[Brian Swartz]

2038 WTC Level 2-3 Playoffs
Sri Lanka vs. Nigeria

Grass, not the favorite surface for either nation, was selected for this tie. I didn't expect it to matter much.

Monday: A. Mehul d. Y. Bozza, 6-3, 6-1, 6-1
Tuesday: A. Chittoor d. G. Vittoz, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2
Wednesday: G. Vittoz/D. Labbe d. A. Chittoor/P. Nilima, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. G. Vittoz, 7-5, 6-1, 6-2
Friday: A. Chittoor d. Y. Bozza, 6-0, 6-2, 6-4

Another 4-1 win means more disappointment for the Nigerians while we gain another promotion, joining Level 2 for the 2039 season! Only one step away from the prestigious top tier now. Vittoz gave his best effort in the first set against both of our players, but was worn down after that. A typical tie for us, impregnable in singles but the doubles was a match to forget for us.

After moving up from 86th to 67th a year ago, in 2038 Sri Lanka makes a similar upward move to 51st at year's end. As is always the case this time of year the turnaround is quick. Objectively I think we are better than most in Level 2 but not as good as most of the nations in the elite top level, so there is a significant chance a third straight promotion might not come -- or if it does, that we won't be able to hold it.

First things first, of course. Chinese Taipei(25th), Italy(10th), and Japan(36th) are our competitors in Group 3 for the new year. Despite their ranking Italy is a power in decline: this will be their fifth straight year at this level. Actually has been a power in decline would be more accurate. A narrow 3-2 loss to tiny Monaco and their rising star Veniard is all that kept them from rejoining the best for this year. I would put us as co-favorites with the Italians to win the group, Taipei is a sinking ship with aging star Dou-wan Chou their only threat but Japan has a couple of decent players and should probably finish third. I think we have very good chances to make it out of group play once again. We'll first meet Japan, and a win there should all but guarantee it.

[Brian Swartz]

2038 Final Rankings -- Top Ten

While there is technically another week yet to go, there are no events in which the top players can participate, only futures and below, so these are set.

1. Gabriel Alastra(29, ARG) -- 11,280

It's very unlikely he'll lose the top spot before the summer with a 2,000-point cushion. He'll enter the year with 62 weeks spent as #1, while Elder/Prieto/Almagro have 47 combined. If this is the year for age to catch up with the four-time defending Wimbledon champion, there's little evidence of it right now.

2. Mick Elder(27, USA) -- 9,210

Despite a poor end to the year, this was by far the best season to date for the youngest of his generation's quartet of challengers. He was 5th a year ago with more than 1600 fewer points to his name including eight titles. Three of those were in Masters events, yet he was unimpressive at the Slams prior to taking the US Open title. He'll need to be more consistent if he wants to add to the two months he spent at the top of the rankings towards the end of the year.

3. David Almagro(28, ESP) -- 8,320

Almagro had a title on all four surfaces this year, and could well be in the mix again providing his manager doesn't go AWOL during a slam like during the US Open this past year.

4. Bjorn Benda(24, DEU) -- 8,210

Benda became the best in the world on clay, taking four of his five titles on the dirt including a maiden Slam title at the French Open. Too many early exits in Masters events contributed to an uneven showing on other surfaces though, a flaw which will need to be addressed if he is to reach the summit of the sport.

5. David Prieto(28, ESP) -- 7,370

After a lightning-fast start produced four titles in the first quarter(Chennai, Sydney, Australian Open, Miami Masters), Prieto added just two more the rest of the season, including a second straight winless effort at the tour finals. If he doesn't repeat in Australia, a tumble from the ranks of the contenders seems very likely.

6. Perry Hogue(24, USA) -- 6,240

For most of the year it looked like the meteoric American had peaked, but a great finish indicates otherwhise. He made the quarters of only one Slam(Australia) and won nothing larger than two 500-level events in the fall. If he can follow up his WTF run with better performances on the big stages early in the year, Hogue might well become a legitimate member of the group chasing Alastra.

7. Evgeni Topolski(25, RUS) -- 4,845

Missing the US Open wasn't a great moment, but all three of his tournament titles came after that(Canada Masters, Kremlin Cup, China Open). Add a semifinal run at the tour finals and there's no question that the one new member of this year's Top 10 is a hot commodity.

8. Oliver Challenger(29, USA) -- 4,425

Down from fourth last year, it's clear he no longer has what it takes to compete at the highest level. He's still got his moments, as he showed in a semifinal appearance at the tour finals.

9. Eric Gorritepe(33, ESP) -- 3,935

The ageless wonder actually moved up a spot. At this rate he might never retire.

10. Spasoje Kucerovic(28, SRB) -- 3,850

A stunning win at the Paris Masters put him back in this group, but he didn't do much elsewhere.


Parity and competition are definitely on the rise right now. The Top 10 players last year combined for about 10% more points than this year's group. Particularly from Topolski(7th) down through about the Top 15-18 spots there is expected to be a lot of shuffling and shifting. Declining veterans like Challenger and Kucerovic could find it increasingly difficult to maintain relevance.

[Brian Swartz]

A New Star on the Horizon

As I mentioned a bit ago, it was now time for a new youngster in my Sri Lanka stable, as it were. After seven and a half years, I pulled the trigger and fired Amrik Chittoor, presently considered the third-best player the country has ever had. He's going nowhere in singles right now(actually slid a couple spots from 91st to 93rd this year) but more importantly of course there was the need to have another top player coming up to follow Girsh.

It's been long enough that I had a couple cracks at it, which is a good thing since the first player I found wasn't very good. The second was better though. Prakash Mooljee is the latest young stud, and he looks to be the best athlete I've ever managed, a hair stronger and faster than Mehul, and also has a bit more natural talent than any of the others, even Chittoor. He's not quite as strong mentally but is between Girsh and Mehul in terms of dedication to the practice courts. The biggest flaw is that he's pretty raw, a little behind in his development comparatively speaking. Still, I think he should definitely be able to reach the Top 20 at some point. He'll also develop a little faster and decline a little sooner than the others, but definitely is still a pro-focused player instead of junior-focused, which is what I'm looking for.

I'm altering my approach with Mooljee a bit compared to the others. First, I'm going for an even familiarity across all four surfaces. This is probably suboptimal for his personal achievement -- specialists tend to do somewhat better by getting a lot of points on their favored surface -- but I want to eventually be able to avoid situations like the recent loss against Austria in which they had a sizable advantage due to our weakness on clay. I also may mix in amateur events while he's still a junior from time to time, something I've never done before. I think they are a better fit for younger players, I'll probably just skip them and go straight to futures once he turns pro. Most of the events still need to be juniors though to keep him at an appropriate ranking -- otherwhise the competition for practice tournaments won't be good enough.

[Brian Swartz]

2039

I've now journeyed through just over a full year in this thread, and we have come full circle back to the beginning of a new season.

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

All comparisons here at to last year's status.

Anil Mehul -- 73rd to 36th singles, 206th to 291st doubles. In terms of getting into seeded territory for the Slams, he's still on the outside looking in. This week we have the first round of the WTC against Japan, and he'll be playing in the Chennai(India) 250 the week after. Chances of moving up are slim, since the 'warmup' small events ahead of the Australian Open have a lot more top players than similar tournaments later in the year. This is simply a function of the schedule -- with the off-season over, everyone wants to get in optimal match condition for the first major of the year and start the season off well.

Girish Girsh -- 357th singles, 1557th doubles. A very solid first year on tour for Girsh, who still has a few months left of his teenage years. He's surpassed Manohar now and with Chittoor's termination he is my #2 player. In a couple years time he'll probably be playing in the WTC. Last week Girsh had a competitive QF loss in a big clay futures event, a decent result for a surface he's weak on.

Girsh is consistently soundly beating the players he's matched up with in practice weeks, so I'm going to be increasing his tournament frequency some until that is no longer the case. He needs more consistent quality competition right now. Physically he's almost at his peak, which he'll reach later this year it appears.

Anil Manohar -- 436th to 442nd singles, 659th to 1472nd doubles. Manohar worked on doubles almost exclusively this year, getting his projected trainer level up to excellent(4.0, or 3.998 to be precise). I discovered an undocumented change from some while back -- players don't have to retire until 45, trainers run from retirement to 65, both 5 years above the original limit. So I've got more time to build him up than I thought.

Paradoxically, he nearly stalled Father Time in singles with his best results in years for a few weeks in the fall, but then returned to planet earth with some early exits to finish the year. He's purely a low-level futures player at this point, Tier 3s mostly. I expect a significant fall in his ranking this year.

Prakash Mooljee -- Unranked. He's getting practice time in and balancing out his surface proficiencies right now, with an eye on his first junior event in probably about a month.

Manager Ranking -- As for me, I'm pretty much where I've been most of the year, hovering around 10k points and 29th(high is 27th). I'm hoping to start slowly moving up at some point this year again, though I have no real goals attach to where I am ranked, it's more just an overall measurement of how well everything else is going.


Stars of Tomorrow

In the WTF update I mentioned the three(now two) generations making an impact at the very top of the sport. This seems a good time to also get into the next couple of waves of players.

The Stars of Tomorrow are those players who are around 22 years old right now, Mehul included. As a group they are generally a little less than two years younger than Bjorn Benda. It's a sizable group, which I would divide into the following hierarchy:

** Antonin Iglar. He's the youngest of the group, with an elite(5th in the rankings) manager and a 5.0 trainer, former world No. 4 Anthony Williams. Iglar is also the best all-around athlete of the group, possessing excellent speed and strength both. His only weakness is that he's doesn't have quite the dedication to the game that some others do. Presently ranked 16th, he's far ahead of the curve and it's not out of the question that he could be a participant in this year's WTF. I think Iglar will surpass Alastra and become the best player since Gorritepe. Everyone in this generation of players is chasing him and probably fighting for second best.

** Julian Hammerstein & Anil Mehul. This is a natural rivalry in a lot of ways. Hammerstein is a mere two weeks older, and has Austria rising through the WTC ranks just as Sri Lanka does, as we saw last year with his straight-set win in the first meeting. I expect there will be many more of them. Hammerstein is slow for a top player and is a little behind Mehul in baseline skills, but his power is an overwhelming asset. He's got a solid trainer and a definite edge in the mental game, though dedication is once again a bit suspect. I expect him to have the advantage over Mehul, though on the faster surfaces Anil should have chances. Hammerstein is presently ranked 26th, second in this generation.

** The field. There's a lot of others who will push them. Perry Mockler(USA, 27th) has a big server but not much athleticism to back it up; John Condon(PHI, 29th) is a poor man's Hammerstein, a powerful clay specialist; Chad Dring(USA, 33rd) is tough and very fast, but spent too much time on the doubles court for a player of only good dedication; Siobhan O'Doherty(IRE, 35th) is a flake: supremely talented but he simply refuses to take being a professional athlete seriously(think Ernests Gulbis here); and Mikaiala Groeneveldt(LUX, 38th), another player without enough of a work ethic but don't sleep on him too much: he's a fabulous athlete, almost as fast as Dring and almost as strong as Hammerstein. That's wont carry him to the top, but it's more than enough to make him dangerous(Gael Monfils, anyone?).

Outlook

It looks like Mehul should be able to make it to the Top 5 at some point, but beyond that is anyone's guess. He's spending more time on the practice courts than any of the competitors here, but that won't completely make up for the lack of a trainer. Some of the players in 'the field' are definitely not managed optimally, so there's a lot of things still yet to be seen.


Young Guns

Here I'll take a quick look at the prospects for Girish Girsh, another roughly three years down the road. I should mention here that there are another seven Top 100 players who are about a year behind Mehul et al., so depending on how they pan out there could be an absolute logjam at the top when Girsh's generation rises up.

In his general age group a couple years younger, the leader right now is Matias Cortecedo(157th), extending Spain's seemingly unenending supply of talent. There is an absolute epidemic of 20-year-old 'burnouts'(i.e., players who both develop and age quickly) and probably a few of those will be relevant in a few years but most will not. There are only two other players in the under-20 age group currently ranked above Girsh: former junior #1 Mugur Kinczllers and previously mentioned American Joseph Skirrow.

The overall sense of things is that starting with Mehul's generation, the talent level and competition seems to be hitting a high point. I'd peg Girsh as a probable Top 10 player right now but trying to predict things this far out is a fool's errand for the most part. He's got a promising future, and will definitely be a successful pro, but how good remains to be seen.

[Brian Swartz]

2039 World Team Cup First Round-Robin Round -- Level 2, Group 3
Sri Lanka vs. Japan

Indoor was selected for this tie, the best surface for us.

Monday: A. Chittoor d. S. Hotate, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. S. Ko, 6-0, 6-2, 6-1
Wednesday: H. Hayuata/A. Ota d. A. Chittoor/P. Nilima, 6-1, 7-6(2), 6-4
Thursday: A. Mehul d. S. Hotate, 6-0, 6-2, 6-2
Friday: A. Chittoor d. S. Ko, 6-2, 6-2, 3-6, 6-2

Another 4-1 win. Chittoor was pushed to four sets in both of his wins and we drop the doubles per usual. Italy did not lose a set against hapless Chinese Taipei, who we will face in our next tie while they take on Japan. It appears to be all but certain that the group's top spot will be determined by the final-round matchup against Italy.

Sri Lanka moves up three spots to a new high of 48th, once again off to a good start. At this level each win is worth 35 points instead of 25 to the players individually, and Mehul moves up to 32nd, right on the bubble for seeding. Due to a number of top players entering in Chennai, he switches to the Brisbane event instead, another 250-level tournament but in Australia.

After a couple of weeks off, I'll report on events there and at the Australian Open.

[Brian Swartz]

The last couple of weeks have been unexpectedly fantastic. First up, Mehul entered the 250 event in Brisbane, Australia instead of Chennai where so many top players entered that he wouldn't even have been seeded. He needed to get a few matches in and try to get enough points to move up some if possible. The early rounds went as expected and Mick Elder awaited in the quarterfinals. That was enough to prepare him for the AO, and figured to be the end of the road. Instead, Mehul stunned the world no. 2, 6-4, 7-6(3) and it could have been more decisive. It was his first win in four meetings with Elder, and any win over a player of that stature is huge. At least for the day, he had arrived as a player that could hang with the best in the sport.

Next up was none other than Julian Hammerstein, who had benefited by the way from Chittoor knocking off unprepared no. 18 Kecic to clear the way. Unable to utilize his power nearly as effectively as he did last year in the WTC matchup on clay, Hammerstein's slowness of foot allowed Mehul to dictate from the baseline more often than not and another tough two-set win, 7-5, 7-5, put him in the final! There waiting was the hottest player in the world, Perry Hogue, and he fairly easily took the title but it was still a fantastic start to the year, vaulting Mehul to 29th in the world for the third time.

The next week, Girish Girsh was in action in the only non-clay top-tier futures event of the first month of the season, in Metz, France. It was a very strong field due to this fact, and he was the 7th-seed but felt good about his chances on an indoor court. Only one of his first three matches was remotely competitive, but things got tougher at the business end of the tournament. A pair of Frenchmen, strongly supported by the partisan crowd, got their shot. In the final, having knocked off regular foe Jesper Fine in the semifinals, Paul-Mathieu Bergerat gave Girsh a real run. It wasn't enough though, he pushed through 7-6(4), 6-4 and claimed his maiden first-tier futures crown after losing twice in the final and once in the quarters in three previous attempts. Ranked up to a new best of 275th afterwards, he will now take several weeks off before taking another shot at breaking into the challenger level of competition.


2039 Australian Open

And so it was that Anil Mehul entered the AO equaling his career-best rank at 29th, and seeded 28th. The difference was accounted for by the fact that 13th-ranked Jens Oberg, who is fairly well if imperfectly managed by the #13 manager by ranking, decided to play only doubles as did the other player under his tutelage. Quite a strange decision considering Oberg was a semifinalist here last year and will now take a zero-pointer, dropping him down to around 17th and opening the door a little wider. It must be an oversight, but a pretty costly one.

It's worth noting in a brief aside that In four of the five 250s in the two weeks leading up to the Australian Open, at least half of the top seeds were knocked off prior to reaching the semifinals. Among the titlists was rising star Antonin Iglar who I mentioned at the outset of this year, the first pro title for anyone of his generation(the 'Stars of Tomorrow'). Undoubtedly the first of many in his case. Things are so fluid and highly unpredictable at the top right now -- everybody has to take advantage of any opportunity given.

At any rate, Mehul had a draw that looked to offer him good chances to make this a very successful event. The farthest he's previously made it here was the second round last year, and never past the third in any Slam. Going into the tournament it felt like he was now turning a corner, finally ready to fully enter his assault on the shrinking number of players ahead of him. With the big wins a couple of weeks ago, he feels he has at least a chance against almost anyone, almost anywhere.

American Tommy Day, two years removed from being the junior no. 1, took just five games in the first round. The second match was more competitive but another straight-sets win. The third round brought #10 Spasoje Kucerovic, who won their lone previous meeting in a third-set tiebreak at Indian Wells last year. On clay he'd be the better player but hardcourt is Kucerovic's weakest surface, making this a pretty favorable matchup for this stage of the tournament. It wasn't easy, but Mehul advanced to the last 16 for the first time at a slam, 7-6(4), 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4. He was able to keep Spasoje guessing just enough to blunt his power, and already it's a second win against the Top 10.

Standing in the way of a quarterfinal berth was a first encounter with no. 4 Bjorn Benda. The German had already bettered an early exit here last year, and has not dropped a set this year with only one set in the last two rounds even competitive. Once again Anil had the advantage of going up against a player that is not at their best on the hardcourts, but Bjorn is probably the only player in the world that can hang with him from the baseline along with having a better serve and all-around athleticism. It's a much different matchup than Kucerovic was. Unfortunately Mehul just came out and stunk it up -- everybody has bad days but this was just embarassing. 6-0, 6-3, 6-3 was the final, and other than a brief period in the second set he just wasn't nearly good enough, losing just over the half the points on his own serve and getting broken seven times. At this stage of his career, a beatdown like this, no matter the opponent or situation, is pretty much just inexcusable.

While his generational rivals Iglar and Hammerstein also made it to the fourth round, they likewise lost in straight sets. Mehul could also take some solace in the fact that he was the lowest-ranked player to make it that far. 7 of the top 8 seeds made it to the quarterfinals, making a convincing statement with their play that there is certainly a limit to the cries of parity, and they aren't about to surrender their lofty positions easily. The eighth is worth mentioning as well, #11 David Alvarez, who reached that stage without the loss of a single set and handed out a ridiculous triple-bagel to worn-out Tihomir Hreglic, allowing just 22 points! Hreglic, ranked 22nd coming in here, had been fresh enough to rally from behind to knock out Challenger in the previous match, and generally speaking routs of that severity just don't happen to players of his stature. All together it set up what looked to be a fantastic second week with the elite players all looking like they were close to the top of their games.

[Brian Swartz]

The Australian Open came down to defending champion David Prieto against Perry Hogue who is on a real tear to start the year. Prieto made it three straight with a straight-sets win, dropping only one set in the tournament, a semi-final tiebreak to Alastra. Meanwhile, David Alvarez's strong showing bumped him into the Top 10 while Challenger dropped all the way down to 11th.

At the same time, Prakash Moojee was in Poland for a Tier 5 junior event, the lowest level of tournament with only 16 in the main draw. He'd managed to nearly double his meager technical skills going in and won a couple matches in singles and doubles each before going out in the quarters and semis respectively. Fatigue was as much a cause of the loss as anything else. Low-level junior matches are essentially a roll of the dice and they tend to be very long. Without developed technique, errors are very common and the advantage of the serve is virtually nil, leading to a lot more long games. He debuted at 1121st in the rankings but will move up from there fairly quickly. Right now that's really almost irrelevant, getting the match experience is what matters.

2039 WTC Level 2 Group 3, Second Round-Robin Round
Chinese Taipei vs. Sri Lanka

This tie was played on grass, but it could have been played on the moon for all that it mattered.

Monday: A. Chittoor d. D. Chow, 6-0, 6-1, 6-0
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. B. Bi, 6-0, 6-0, 6-2
Wednesday: A. Chittoor/P. Nilima d. T. Ang/T. Si-Ma, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. D. Chow, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Friday: A. Chitoor d. B. Bi, 6-1, 6-4, 6-2

Other than doubles, it really wasn't worth watching -- a total bloodbath. Italy beat Japan as expected, but only 3-2 on account of their second-best player retiring early at age 33 to become a trainer. A short-sighted move by the manager there, and for team Italy they lack a similar replacement. This changes the look of things considerably. We are now near-prohibitive favorites to win our final group tie against them and take the top spot in Group 3. Even should an upset occur, our spot in the quarterfinals is booked and the entrance exam in Level 2 has been passed. Looking down the road, New Caledonia and Denmark could be tough, but the top competition appears once again to be Austria. It's more likely than not that our budding rivalry with them with have another chapter added, and I wouldn't mind avenging what is to date our only WTC defeat one bit.

Sri Lanka edges up a spot to 47th, while Anil Mehul moves up to his latest career-best at 23rd. It's a full month now of relative quiet coming up, leading up to the big American hardcourt masters and what will be a busy clay season this year following that as Mehul will be playing all of the Masters tournaments there as well for the first time.

[britrock88]

Question for ya: I now have a couple of 18-year-olds. What's the process for working them up through the ranks of Futures and Challenger tournaments? As of now, I'm putting the guys in enough FT3s to keep their form in the low yellow and getting them as many PRAs as I can fit in among those.

[Brian Swartz]

You've pretty much got it. Going from futures to challengers is the toughest part in my opinion, because players can get stuck for a while in being 'too good' for futures but not good enough for challengers. In general, I think they should play at a level that they can be fairly successful at, but not to the point of there being no competition. If they are consistently winning FT3s, I'd move them up. Generally speaking I want my players to be losing in the QF and SF to have the best balance of improving their ranking and training up their skills. Winning the tournament is better than going out in the first round, but neither is optimal for development.

[Brian Swartz]

February - March 2039

The American Masters are upon us. Here's what my players have been up to the last few weeks:

Anil Mehul -- Rotterdam(500, Indoor) was chosen as the in-between event, his first 500-level tournament. Memphis was another indoor 500 the following week, but he wanted to make sure he was able to be seeded and others might join that one at last minute if they didn't do well here. Mehul was the 7th seed and had the easiest possible route through the opening rounds, a qualifier and then the winner of a matchup of qualifiers.

In the quarters, he got his second chance at #1 Gabriel Alastra, having lost in straight-sets in the opening round of the USO two years ago. This is Alastra's worst surface, and it was a back-and-forth battle with neither player able to sustain an advantage for long. After a pair of tiebreaks were split, Mehul got the decisive break in the 10th game of the final set for a 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 win despite actually taking two fewer points in the match. In the semifinals, he had a second meeting with Gorritepe. The last time they'd met, Mehul had surprisingly prevailed in two tough tiebreaks in last year's Canada Masters a few months back. It was another extremely tight one here, with the legend prevailing 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-6(7) in a final-set tiebreak that could have gone either way. This time it was Mehul taking more points(112-106) yet losing the match. He did not break Gorritepe once despite 10 opportunities, while dropping the only chance on his serve. It's hard not to be very disappointed in a defeat like this, when he really should have been able to squeak it out, but the run here could have ended in the last round. In any case, he's now beaten the top two players in the world within the first two months of the year!


Girish Girsh -- The somewhat accelerated tournament schedule continues. He appears to be playing somewhere around the level of a 150-ranked player but moving up through the challenger ranks is difficult. He has managed to establish himself as a solid challenger-level player now though. At a Tier 3 event in Caloundra he made it to the semifinals, losing to Siobhan Doherty(IRE, 41st) who has no real business playing an event this small, but technically still qualifies for it. A few weeks later in Cherbourg, France, he entered a Tier 2 event as there were no smaller ones available in the timeframe except on clay.

Girsh expected to be seeded but a couple of late and unexpected entries had him as an at-large entry and facing the eighth-seed in the first round, who he beat easily. In the quarters he faced anticipated rival and junior #1 from his class Mugur Kinczllers -- and dispatched him in straight sets, a pretty significant upset. Next up was Robert Jerrold, a few weeks older and the junior #4 from the previous year. He wasn't quite as good but Girsh couldn't repeat the magic, falling 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3. Still, back to back semifinal appearances is a good start to moving up the ladder. He'll have a few weeks off now.


Prakash Mooljee -- A second junior event didn't go as well as his first, he won only one singles match and was bounced in the doubles qualifying. This week he's in Noumea(France) for a third tournament.

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells Masters

All of the seeds get a bye here and at Miami, and as the 20th among them this is the first time Mehul will benefit from that. Last year's result here was the third round.

R2 -- South Africa's Alex Beamer is one of the better unseeded players, and steamrolled a qualifier in the first round. One previous meeting was a tight three-set win in a challenger at the end of '37. He's a complete hardcourt specialist, but doesn't quite have the all-around game. Mehul jumped on him early with a bagel before seeing the match out in straight sets.

R3 -- Having equaled last year's performance, everything from here on would add to his points total. American Pierce Gaskell is a potential generational rival, with Mehul leading the head-to-head 2-0, both in straight sets. The first was way back in 2034 in a mid-level juniors match, the second last year in the first round of the Olympics. Gaskell has plummeted to 63rd in the rankings, but that's temporary due to some big challenger wins from last year dropping off. It was a much tougher win than the 6-3, 6-2 scoreline indicated. The normally clutch Gaskell may be suffering from confidence issues, as he dropped 11 of 13 break chances. Anil is returning fantastically well so far here, winning more than half of the points on his opponents' serve in both matches so far.

R4 -- Here he was again, a fifth appearance in the round of 16 at a big event in the last few months. Once again the odds were against him, with no. 3 Bjorn Benda waiting. This is of course a reprise of the AO beatdown a couple months ago, and at the same stage. The match started off similarly but Mehul rallied to make a match of it before losing, 6-2, 3-6, 6-2. Benda was best in the important moments(4 of 8 break points versus 1 of 8) but it was more competitive this time around.

As with the Australian, only Hammerstein and Iglar made it to the fourth round among generational rivals, with the Austrian already having upset Topolski in a tight three-set match. Iglar was knocked out in a close match against Alastra(7-5 in the third), while Hammerstein faced the other top Russian, Goncharenko. He was absolutely crushed, taking only three games. So once again, the Iglar/Mehul/Hammerstein trio are bounced at the same stage, none gaining an advantadge.

Elder defeated Prieto in a tight third-set tiebreak to defend his title from last year in the final.


Miami Masters

Mehul is only defending a second-round result this time around, and had an easy match there to at least exceed it.

R3 -- Tough draw for this stage with no. 1 Alastra here. The win against him a few weeks ago indoors was one thing, beating him on the hardcourt was a different matter. Surprisingly, Anil pulled it off again 4-6, 6-2, 7-6(7)! The really surprising part of the match was how well he was able to return against one of the best servers in the sport. This set up a great opportunity ...

R4 -- Back in the round of 16 again with Argentina veteran Gael Graff(31, 16th) awaiting. Graff is a former world no. 2, one of the best to never reach the top spot but he was unfortunate enough to flourish in the latter part of Gorritepe's reign. Still, at his age Mehul was a modest favorite This time out though, Mehul was a little off and didn't return nearly as well, losing 6-4, 6-4. If they played 10 times he's probably win 6 or 7 of them; this is the only real upset he's endured this year and it cost a good opportunity. Incredibly, that's six trips to this stage in large events now without a single win, all in about seven months going back to the Olympics.

Hammerstein had an even more crushing result. He faced off against Hogue in the third round and after dropping the first set led 5-2 in the second, only to lose meekly in a tiebreak after failing to convert eight ... that's right, eight match points! It's pretty much the stuff nightmares are made of. One game from winning a big upset and he couldn't serve it out. The Stars of Tomorrow had more success elsewhere though. Iglar upset Prieto and Almagro in back-to-back matches before losing in the semifinals, while unseeded no. 63 Pierce Gaskell knocked out three seeded players, including no. 10 Alvarez and no. 8 Kucerovic on route to the quarterfinals. Gaskell could well become relevant again now as he moves into the Top 50 again.


Sri Lanka Roundup

With no smaller event available in the needed window, during the second week of Miami Girish Girsh entered his first Tier-1 Challenger in Guadeloupe. He was unseeded again but made it to the quarters before getting flattened by top seed Jens Petersen(Denmark, 56th). He was part of the champion doubles team, getting a total of nine matches in over a few days so he'll have several weeks off now. Mooljee continues to muddle through with his third junior event, getting one singles win and a pair in doubles.

[Brian Swartz]

RANKINGS UPDATE

Top Ten

1. Gabriel Alastra(ARG, 29) -- 11,045

Losing to Mehul in the Miami third round took a big chunk out of the cushion he'd built up. Alastra is at his best on the clay though -- how well he does the next couple of months will be a huge factor in whether he stays at the top for a fourth year.

2. Mick Elder(USA, 27) -- 9,825

After closing in on Alastra with back-to-back Masters crowns in Indian Wells and Miami, giving him five for his career, Elder appears to be back in form.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 24) -- 7,880

This is a big stretch upcoming for Benda. His coming-out party was at Roland Garros last year, but overall he was not as successful as Alastra or Elder in the clay season as a whole. If he wants to put his name at the top of the list, the first thing he needs to do is establish himself as the preeminent clay-court player in the world.

4. Perry Hogue(USA, 25) -- 7,500

Hogue is definitely on the rise, but he's not nearly as good on the clay. On the other hand, he doesn't have much in the way of points to defend their either. A fine spring has him in the thick of the second tier behind Alastra and Elder.

5. David Almagro(ESP, 28) -- 7,360

6. David Prieto(ESP, 28) -- 7,200

7. Evgeni Topolski(RUS, 25) -- 5,465

Topolski continues to improve his standing slowly, but is clearly a step behind the top six players still. Since his semifinal run at the Australian Open, he's been fairly unimpressive.

8. Spasoje Kucerovic(SRB, 28) -- 4,120

9. Eric Gorritepe(ESP, 33) -- 3,935

10. David Alvarez(ESP, 26) -- 3,830

Alvarez has been inconsistent since breaking into the Top 10 after Australia, and was knocked out in his first match at Miami. He's an extreme clay-court specialist who will move up significantly if he can avoid such lapses in the coming months.


There will be a ton of competition for the premier clay-court events, with a lot of specialists among the top players and nearly all of them at least seeing this part of the season as a secondary priority. If Benda does well, there could easily be a dogfight for the top spot by the time Wimbledon arrives.


Anil Mehul -- 36th to 20th singles, 291st to 295th doubles. Overall it was a fantastic spring, 18-5 which is almost halfway to last year's 37 wins, some of those coming on the Challenger circuit. The final WTC group play tie against Italy is up next, and then the clay season which will be his first in the bigger events there. Between now and the French Open Mehul only has three events to worry about defending -- and two of them he lost in the first round, getting no points from them. His results won't be as good on the dirt, but he still should be able to add a modest amount to his total and continue to move up a bit. The big question right now is Monte Carlo, the first of the clay masters and the only one which is not mandatory. After wavering back and forth on whether to enter there, he has decided to play only if he is going to be seeded which is still an open question: as of right now he'd be the last seed. If he doesn't play there, it will most likely be Barcelona, a 500 the following week, that serves as a 'bridge' event to stay in match shape before Madrid/Rome leading into the summer slams.

Girish Girsh -- 357th to 207th singles, 1557th to 490th doubles. The story of the spring for Girsh was establishing himself as a challenger player and trying to get his ranking high enough so that practice events stay competitive enough to be useful. He's aiming to qualify at the US Open for his first Slam event in the fall, but until then it'll probably be a steady diet of challengers with the better players at this level still more than a match for him. His development has become even more important with Amrik Chittoor having been picked up by another manager. Unfortunately they are overplaying him, and while he will probably be ok for the upcoming WTC tie he's already a little fatigued, a problem that could well get a lot worse. Sri Lanka's WTC fortunes could suffer for a bit untill Girsh manages to surpass him in the rankings and take his place on the national team. As of now, Chittoor is around his career high at 75th, so it will be some time before that happens. I'm hoping by the end of the year so that 2040 can be entered with a full head of steam.

Anil Manohar -- 442nd to 491st singles, 1417th to 1312th doubles. Results have started to 'even out' for him between singles and doubles a little bit, and that should continue for a while.

Prakash Mooljee -- unranked to 1028th juniors. So far he's winning against the bottom of the barrell competition just a little more often than he's losing, 6-4 in both singles and doubles after three tournaments. Work on the basic fundamentals of baseline play continues, and serve training will follow shortly. At this stage of course training is more important than anything else, tournaments serve mostly to give him a chance to put into practice what he's learning every once in a while so that he's fresh and motivated to continue improving.

Manager Ranking -- As hoped I've seen a small increase in my status, 29th to 25th and 10k to 10.8k in the points.

[Brian Swartz]

WTC Level 2 Group 3 Third Round Robin Round
Sri Lanka vs. Italy

Hardcourt was set as the ground for this.

Monday: A. Mehul d. X. Jue, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Tuesday: A. Chittoor d. A. El Brazi, 6-0, 6-2, 6-4
Wednesday: X. Jue/A. Lepore d. A. Chittoor/P. Nilima, 6-3, 6-0, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. A. El Brazi, 6-1, 6-0, 6-2
Friday: A. Chittoor d. X. Jue, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0

Sri Lanka wins 4-1!

Another typical victory, and we move up to a tie for 41st with our larger neighbors across of the Bay of Ceylon, India. All of that was fantastic stuff ... and then we looked at the quarterfinal draw.

Courtesy of a 3-2 loss to Denmark in their last tie, we draw our good friends Austria. Not only that, it's on clay. Again. Any of the other possibilities would have been better. Any other surface would have been better as well. Arglebarglezorz!!!

This time it's actually worse than before, for two reasons. Chittoor's mismanagement means we probably won't be as well prepared for the clash. Also, unlike last year, if we lose it means we don't make the promotion playoffs since it's a quarterfinal tie, not a semifinal. So yeah, it was nice to win the group but as things turned out, we probably would have been better off losing it.

[korme]

This is great Brian.

Are you a VIP member? Have you ever created your own guy?

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks!

Yes, I am VIP(otherwhise I'd only have two players). Mehul, Girsh, and Mooljee are all created players. It's really the only way to build up a nation like Sri Lanka. There are occasional decent players(Chittoor, one of the upcoming juniors that I mentioned in passing) but not nearly enough to challenge the top nations even if they were all managed to perfection.

[Brian Swartz]

I forgot to mention one notable milestone. At Indian Wells, Anil Mehul went over the $1 million mark in career earnings at about the time he turned 23. He became the top Sri Lankan in that category earlier in the year, with Prakash Manohari the previous holder at $913k and change. Manohari still holds the mark for wins(660 singles, 287 doubles). Jiten Dhatri has 390 in doubles which is at the top of that list. Mehul is at 319 and 167 but has a similar winning percentage of about .769 -- he's got a couple decades to go so the wins mark will fall in time. A couple of other journeyman-type players are around 400, including Manohar(388).

In terms of titles, nobody really has much to say yet. Mehul is still pursuing his first pro-level(meaning, everything above Challenger, 250s and above) championship. You'd have to go down to the Challengers where Mehul and Chittoor both have three victories. In terms of juniors, Chittoor(15 titles), Girsh(10), and Mehul(9) lead the way, though none of them won any of the big events.

[Brian Swartz]

April - May 2039

The first half of the clay season is in the books and the Madrid/Rome Masters are upon us, signifying the beginning of the ramp-up heading into Roland Garros.

Anil Mehul ended up skipping Monte Carlo, which was eventually won by Benda as he beat Elder in the semis and then Alastra in the finals, both in three sets. That trio looks set to be the top powers on clay once again. Mehul entered Barcelona as a 6-seed the following week, losing in the third round in three to no. 36 Cestmir Marcek, the kind of specialist who is only a threat to him on the dirt.

Girish Girsh spent the whole time training, a nearly two-month stretch as he's just outside of the Top 200, around 210-220 most weeks, and he's reached the point where the practice matchups are good enough that I think it's best for him to go back to a minimal tournament schedule. At this point mid-level Challengers(Tier 2) are his sweet spot, but the challenger events are sparse enough that he'll take what he can get. There's a couple of Tier 2s on hardcourt in a couple of weeks so that'll be his next foray.

Prakash Mooljee did not have to qualify for his fifth junior event which was just last week, and compounded that milestone by surprisingly winning the title as the 4-seed! This has propelled him to 746th in the junior rankings, good enough that I'll need to move him into the Tier 4 events now which have the standard 32-draw; the Tier 5's he's been playing have one less round, a 16-draw. I looked into the possibility of amateur events, but even the first-round losers in qualifying are generally far more advanced in their training. He probably won't be ready for those until he is 16 or 17, a couple of years from now if not longer. Going up to the Tier-4s is a modest jump, but the next step to the Tier-3s is much more difficult so he'll probably be staying at this level for a while. He's also reached the point where he has a basic grasp of the fundamentals involved in the different types of rallies that can come up, and will begin to take on developing some semblance of a serve now, the most difficult and important single shot in tennis.

[Brian Swartz]

Madrid

Anil Mehul's maiden clay-court Masters was definitely one to forget. He had probably the worst first-round matchup possible, 10-seed Eric Gorritepe. Anywhere else he'd have a decent chance at winning, but not on clay. A competitive but clear straight-set loss sent him packing. It was the first time he'd lost in the first round of anything in nearly a year, but there's nothing to be embarrassed about in losing to the GOAT on their best surface.

Rome

The script flipped here. Mehul won easily against a qualifier, and then had a fairly favorable matchup in the next round against Giorgio Becerril(ARG, no. 14). Becerril is another player that he could probably beat anywhere else, but he's also a clay specialist. Another straight-set loss resulted, 6-4, 6-4. Anil played well enough to have a chance at stealing it, but didn't take any of the five break chances he got and a close defeat resulted. Becerril did go on to make the semifinals, which made him feel a bit better about things.

Despite only winning one match and actually seeing a small net loss in points, Mehul moved up a spot to 19th due to Oberg finally sliding past him on his way down. There was some high drama at the top in Rome. Bjorn Benda won in Monte Carlo and Madrid, but Gabriel Alastra stopped him in an epic final, 7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(3). It was Alastra's third match of the week to go the distance, and second straight final-set tiebreak after outlasting Elder in the semis. Benda led 5-1 in the first-set breaker, only to drop the next six points and the set, ultimately costing him the match. Despite losing the total points 118-122, Alastra took his 8th Masters shield, but more importantly assured that he'd stay in the #1 position until at least Wimbledon. The heart of the champion was on full display here, staving off the changing of the guard for a little while longer.

Girish Girsh knocked off a couple of seeds in a challenger tournament in Uzbekistan, but it had a disappointing end as he played inexplicably poorly in his last match. A semifinal defeat with only four games won against a player he should have beaten leaves a bad taste in his mouth, but it was enough to crack the Top 200 for the first time.

A week off now, and then it's off to Roland Garros.

[Brian Swartz]

Girish Girsh had another challenger, a small one in Luzern, during the interim. He entered there for a second tournament in a row because there is a several-week break beginning with RG where there are no hardcourt challengers until after Wimbledon. This was a tough call, one of those darned-if-you-do, darned-if-you-don't kinds of things where there really isn't a particularly good option. Many other players had the same idea as it had a strong field, but even so he knocked off some higher-ranked guys and made it to the final, where he was stopped short of his first challenger crown by Henry Healey(99th, USA) in one-sided fashion. Still, a strong showing that moved him up to 175th, firmly in the Top 200 to stay.


Roland Garros

Anil Mehul hopes of rescuing an unimpressive clay season were not helped by a relatively unkind draw. He entered as the 17-seed, a bit higher than expected since #6 David Almagro and #7 Evegeni Topolski inexplicably didn't show up. For Topolski, that's two out of three slams missed during what should be the heyday of his career! Criminal mismanagement there. Back to Mehul though:

R1 -- American Chris Kellogg, around 130th in the world, seemed a good draw for the first round until you looked at his resume. Naturally, he was a clay-court specialist though not an extreme one as a fairly balanced player, but certainly a guy who could still be a threat and there are a lot of players who would be easier here. Thankfully there wasn't a lot of drama in a straight-sets win, 6-1, 6-4, 6-2. Meanwhile, Amrik Chittoor nearly got his first win here before losing in five sets to familar WTC foil Guillame Vittoz(Nigeria).

R2 -- Next up was possibly the most dangerous unseeded player in the draw. Also from the US, generational rival Chad Dring, ranked 41st and a complete clay aficianado, had been every bit as impressive in cruising through his first match. Coming into the tournament, Mehul's goal was to defend his position(i.e. make the third round), at which point he would have gone one round better than last year and at least salvaged a decent clay performance on the year. Dring's appearance in his path threatened to throw a wrench in that plan. It was close, but Mehul continued to return very well and after taking a close third he had broken the American's will. The final was 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, 6-1, a fine and important win.

R3 -- And then there was Becerril again. Another step up in competition and they'd just played a couple weeks ago in Rome. This time Anil started better and took the first set, but from there on out the Argentine just got stronger and stronger as it went on. 4-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-1 was the final, a game effort but on clay there's no question who the better player is.

The top 8 seeds made the quarters, top four made the semis, top two made the final in a rematch of Gabriel Alastra and Bjorn Benda. You can't get much more topheavy than that. There were some close matches in there to be sure, but the powers that be once again defended their territory. Alastra started well in the final, leading by a set and 3-1 before Benda rallied to claim the championship again in four sets. His reward for his second Slam title was to be demoted to #3 in the rankings, as Mick Elder surpassed him by a bit after making the semifinals. The top 5 all equalled or surpassed last year's results, making it a crowded bunch at the top.

All of that makes Wimbledon very interesting in three weeks. Alastra, the four-time defending champion, pretty much needs to repeat again if he wants to retain the top spot for long. With the grass season lasting only a few weeks, there is virtually no such thing as a grass specialist, particularly not to the degree that there is on clay. That makes it a much different playing field and the big servers have a little bit more advantadge there: speed can be a bigger factor as well.

As with most of the top players, Mehul will have one tuneup 250 going in. The big news for the Sri Lanka players though is that it will probably be Girsh's first Slam instead of waiting for the USO. During Roland Garros, he had a difficult time finding quality practice partners -- he's reached a point where many of them were trying to qualify there. It's sort of a catch-22, but he's probably better off trying to do that himself than hitting with guys who can't really challenge him much. Mooljee played his first tier-4 juniors during RG, which was also a mistake: he's high enough to make most of them but this one happened to have a more crowded field and he lost in qualifying. Lesson learned -- it's been a while since I coached up a junior, but I need to get him close to the top 500(around 750th now) before jumping to that level. A couple more good Tier 5 results at least will be needed, which shouldn't take long.

[Brian Swartz]

June

Mehul played the UNICEF Open(250) in the Netherlands the week before Wimbledon, and going in as the 2-seed he had hopes for snagging his first title on the main pro tour. Vito Bonamoni of Switzerland, who he'd won a close match against last fall in their own only meeting stopped him in the quarterfinals instead via third-set tiebreak. It was only a moderate upset, but probably his worst loss of the year so far.

Prakash Mooljee was also in action, taking part in a Tier 5 in Prague(singles finalist, doubles quarterfinalist). He'll need another of those before moving up.

[Brian Swartz]

WIMBLEDON

Girish Girsh got his introduction to Grand Slam competition as anticipated. He was bounced in the first round of doubles qualifying, but did better in the singles. The biggest obstacle was in the second round, a match he should have lost, but he took advantage of a brief dip by his opponent and pulled through 6-3, 7-6(2). In the main draw, he was matched up against world no. 2 Mick Elder in a hilarious mismatch. The predictable beatdown was by a final of 6-0, 6-2, 6-1, with only five points won on Elder's serve. The success was in reaching the main draw itself though.

Anil Mehul had a qualifier himself first, winning with the loss of only five games. In the second round, Peruvian Arnaldo Barranco waited. They'd played once last year with Mehul winning a close match -- Barranco is a veteran who is still hanging around as a competitive Top 50 player. He was tough early, winning the second and third sets before Mehul rallied to not beat him so much as outlast him, 7-6(2), 4-6, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2. It was Mehul's first five-set match in his career, and allowed him to best last year's result here.

The third round brought a clash with Antonin Iglar, a chance to see how he matched up with the best player of his generation. It was close, but Iglar won it 7-5 in the fifth after another long, epic match. Iglar would go on to beat Julian Hammerstein in five again in the next round, demonstrating how closely matched the three of them are. There will be many more meetings to come, but Antonin won this round.

There were many surprises to come, none greater than four-time defending champion Gabriel Alastra being knocked out in the fourth round by no. 9 Viktor Goncharenko. At the same stage, Elder was also sent home by no. 14 Andres Blanco, while unseeded veteran Jean-Luc Veniard of Monaco joined the quarterfinals as well. After the established powers had impressively flexed their muscles all year long, here at Wimbledon the applecart was completely overturned.

Goncharenko went on to beat Benda in four to reach the final, where he outlasted David Prieto in a classic, ultimately prevailing 8-6 in the fifth. Prior to this event he had never gone further than a quarterfinal at a Slam, and Wimbledon had been his worst of the four the last three years running! He'll have fond memories of this to be sure, his maiden Slam crown at the most prestigious of them all. It certainly sets the stage for what promises to be a fascinating second half of 2039.

[Brian Swartz]

TOP TEN RANKINGS UPDATE

1. Bjorn Benda(25, DEU) -- 10,150

Alastra's early exit at Wimbledon allowed Benda, who managed the best of the top players in reaching the semifinals, to claim the #1 spot for the first time just a month after his 25th birthday. His hold on the crown is tenuous, but for now he's reached the top of the mountain.

2. Mick Elder(28, USA) -- 9,785

Elder has been almost but not quite there most of his career and that continues. He won one of the upcoming Masters and the US Open last year, so the best he can realistically aim for is to hold onto his position even if he plays fabulously the next couple of months.

3. Gabriel Alastra(29, ARG) -- 9,385

The question here is can the champ rebound from this disappointment? Is he done at the top, or can he make a surge in the late summer and autumn? He ranks tied for 10th all-time in Slam titles(6) and 9th all-time in weeks at #1(89), and is assured of going into the record books as a second-tier great even if he does nothing else.

4. David Prieto(29, ESP) -- 8,290

Prieto may be inconsistent on the whole, but he's brought his best at the Slams this year(AO champion, FO semifinalist, Wimbledon finalist). Those kind of results ensure that he is not about to fade into the sunset just yet.

5. Perry Hogue(25, USA) -- 8,140

Dropping a spot despite besting last year's result to reach the Wimbledon quarters, Hogue continues to have a fine year but isn't yet the best on any surface. It's a highly competitive group at the top, but he's got a big cushion on the rest of the field.

6. Viktor Goncharenko(26, RUS) -- 5,450

As the flavor of the month, Goncharenko is a big question mark right now. Over a third of his ranking points come from the Wimbledon title he's fresh off of. If he can bring that level of play consistently over the next few months, he could establish himself with the top group, but he's got a lot of ground to gain first. He should be making his first appearance at the WTF, and that's a good place to start.

7. David Almagro(28, ESP) -- 5,180

Almagro was one of the Wimbledon losers, and he hasn't fallen this far in several years. Assuming he doesn't skip the US Open again, there is hope he could still rally.

8. Evgeni Topolski(25, RUS) -- 4,880

A third-round loss to Hammerstein is a far cry from the previous year's semifinal, and after a big year was expected Topolski is a major disappointment right now.

9. Spasoje Kucerovic(29, SRB) -- 3,930

He simply refuses to go away.

10. David Alvarez(26, ESP) -- 3,550

[Brian Swartz]

Anil Mehul -- 20th to 17th singles, 295th to 383rd doubles. After an 18-5 start to the year, 11-6 during the clay/grass season was not fantastic. Winning the tough second-rounders at the French and Wimbledon kept it from being a disastrous stretch and he did continue to move up a bit, but no question he's happy to be done with it and back to the hard courts.

Girish Girsh -- 207th to 168th singles, 490th to 435th doubles. Similarly, Girsh moved up slowly as well with qualifying at Wimbledon the unquestioned highlight. He'll continue to claw his way up the challenger ranks, inch by inch.

Prakash Mooljee -- 1028th to 626th juniors. Among the better of the tier-5 competitors, he should make the jump to tier-4 in the third quarter.

Manager Ranking -- 25th to 22nd, 10.8k to 11.6k points. Continuing to gradually climb the ladder.

As for Chittoor, he's up to 54th but has also reached the point where he has been significantly overplayed to the point where it is really starting to adversely affect his performance. Assuming this mismanagement continues, at some point this will cause his ranking to fall but as of right now he's in no danger of being kicked out of the WTC roster.

This seemed a good time to show the ranking breakdown for each player as part of a more detailed explanation of how the system works and the kinds of decisions that can come up. The report in the screenshots here are only available to VIPs but with a bit of time could be hammered out fairly easily from a player's tournament history. The basic concept to keep in mind is that tennis operates on a rolling 52-week system, meaning the rankings are based on all points earned over the past year, and also that points are awarded based on what round you reach. So starting from the bottom up to begin with simplicity, here is Prakash Mooljee.

http://i.imgur.com/H39NYvq.png



Most of this is fairly self-explanatory. The column on the left, 'W.L.', stands for 'Weeks Left'. In other words, how long it will be until a result is no longer counted. Naturally this starts at 52 and ends when a full year has passed. Although it isn't stated here, six events each year only count for the junior rankings. Mooljee has gone through the stage of establishing a ranking: at the bottom, one of his results for singles and doubles are listed as 'non-countable' since he's over the six-event limit. Those are disregarded. The best six singles results, and one-quarter of the best-six doubles results, are added together to give his ranking points. 80 + 14 for a total of 94 in this case. At this stage he has to get past the first round in singles(for a JG5) or past the quarterfinals in doubles in order to add to his points total: otherwhise he's just replacing an identical result and his points won't change.


Anil Manohar

http://i.imgur.com/D3NF5Y2.png



On the pro tour, the number of countable results increase from six to what is known as the 'best 18' for singles: 14 for doubles. For most players, like Manohar here, it's simply a matter of adding up all the results from the previous year. Lower-ranking players usually do not play more than 18 tournaments, because practice is more important -- for younger players, developing to become the best they can at peak, and for younger players, working on their skills to become a better trainer since they are no longer good enough to compete at the top anyway.


Girish Girsh

http://i.imgur.com/PEiO0vO.png




Girsh is pretty much the same, except that we can see Wimbledon is separated out at the top. All Slams and Masters are counted first, and then other events added in up to the 18-result limit. He's starting to reach the point where good futures results will be dropped off, i.e. his win in China in a couple weeks time, and this will slow his rise as will the fact that his tournament schedule will be slowing again now that he's in position to have solid practice partners. He'll probably only be playing one challenger between now and the US Open in a couple months.


Anil Mehul

http://i.imgur.com/XfmmSze.png





This, of course, is a lot different. There are a lot more categories, and it looks a lot more complicated, but really isn't overly so. The decisions on what tournaments to play based on this can be however. Every player who finished in the Top 30 the previous year gets a result for all of the Slams and the eight(excluding Monte Carlo) mandatory Masters -- if they don't play, they simply receive 0 points and are additionally banned from one Masters event the following year. So it's basically a really bad idea for a top player not to enter all of them, since they are going to count anyway.

That makes 12 tournaments: the other six are made up of as many as 4 500s and the rest 250s or challengers if the player was low enough to qualify. Anybody in the Top 32 at the time of entry cannot play a challenger event.

The upshot of all of this is that at the elite level, the only way to move up significantly is to do better in the Slams/Masters: there are a lot more points available there than in the smaller events. Mehul has a couple of 'extras' at the bottom: the UNICEF result will probably replace that last challenger in Sopot when it drops off in a couple of weeks. WTC success has been a nice boon, and even more-so earlier in his career: there was a point, when pushing through the lower ranks, when it was 200 of less than 500 points, or nearly half of his total. Continuing the trend towards slightly better and more consistent results this year will help, but the 'wall' that has seemingly been erected against Mehul at the Round of 16 will need to be consistently breached if he is to threaten the Top 10.

At this point his goal is to get securely into the Top 16(for better seeding) as soon as possible, and after that climb as close to the Top 10 as possible by the end of the year. For reference, here's how the spots around him look:

14. Oliver Challenger(29, USA) -- 2495
15. Giorgio Becerril(29, ARG) -- 2455
16. Isaac Malpica(29, ESP) -- 2050
17. Anil Mehul(23, SRL) -- 1905
18. Gael Graff(31, ARG) -- 1885
19. Strahinja Kecic(27, CRO) -- 1880
20. Julian Hammerstein(23, AUT) -- 1840
21. Lubos Nedved(26, CZE) -- 1695

It's very competitive and fluid, and over the last couple months Mehul has moved up more due to players like Kecic and Graff sliding than anything great that he's done. There are four masters left in the year(three hardcourt, one indoor) and getting seeded there will be a major boon in him getting consistently solid or better results. Right now though, he's the first man out which would mean he could face any of the top players in an early round. He'll need to play either Atlanta(250) or Washington(500) and probably both ahead of the Canada Masters a month from now. The uncertainty in whether he'll be in or out of the seeded positions at that time makes planning the tournament schedule a guessing game at best. The situation will be shifting on a weekly basis. In the long view, the upcoming schedule is absolutely vital: those two events followed by Canada/Cincinatti Masters back-to-back, then a week off followed by the US Open, and the week after that the WTC QF tie against Austria. It's a lot to pack in less than two months, which is one reason why he's had a little more rest over the spring and summer. Much will be determined in the coming weeks.

[britrock88]

Somehow I missed that the junior rankings are based on so few tournaments. Now I know why my guys have plateaued around #20 even as they win more JG2s. Thanks!

[Brian Swartz]

You're welcome :). At a certain point due to the small number of events it gets really hard for juniors to move up in the rankings. You pretty much have to go far in the A or Slam events.

[Brian Swartz]

JULY/AUGUST

Mehul started in Atlanta(250) as the top seed, proceeding to get upset in the quarterfinals by Pierce Gaskell 3 and 3, the first time he's lost in four meetings. Overall, it was as bad as any loss this year and continued the trend of slumping that he's been in for a while. The next week in Washington(500) was better at least. He looked good in the early rounds, knocking Mockler aside in the quarters and losing only to champion Perry Hogue in the semis, 6-4, 6-2. The rising world no. 4 beat him by the same score earlier in the year. There's no shame in losing this kind of match, it's losing to lower-ranked players that is problematic. Heading into the first of the two pre-USO Masters, it was touch and go whether he'd be seeded or not but Mehul is ranked 16th, just on the inside at the moment.

Meanwhile, Girish Girsh is preparing for a Tier-1 challenger in Beijing, his first tournament since Wimbledon and a good opportunity to grab some points with four hardcourt challengers in the same week. Prakash Mooljee did not overwhelm in two events in Jerusalem and Sfax. He won only one singles match between the two, did ok in doubles, but is still hovering around the 600 mark in the rankings. Both losses were to better players, unusually good for this level. It's off to Egypt for him next week for his latest foray, still in the junior fifth tier and there he'll stay until he manages another good run.

[Brian Swartz]

CANADA MASTERS

Going in, there was a tie for the 16th seed between Anil Mehul and Julian Hammerstein. Hammerstein had just made the final at Washington to bridge a significant gap. I don't know if it was because of some tiebreaker or if the seedings were determined the week before, but Mehul got the spot -- and it didn't matter at all. Why? Because they were matched up in the first round! Literally, this was the worst possible first-round opponent he could draw. Since Hammerstein had more to gain and less to lose, having not played as many events and not most of the masters the previous year, Mehul needed to win this to have any chance of gaining the upper hand soon.

It was a tough, tense match as they tend to be between these two, and came down to the key moments. As he usually is, Hammerstein was best in those moments and won it 7-5, 6-4. He was 3-for-7 on break chances, Mehul 1-for-8. Having broken back to 5-all to stay in the first set, Mehul dropped the last two games. Later in the second, he had triple break point with Hammerstein serving at 1-2, and failed to convert any of them. Those two moments pretty much sealed this. It's the first time he's lost in the first round of a hard-court masters in almost two years.

The other Sri Lankans did better. Girish Girsh made the semifinals of the Beijing challenger, losing a close match to George Craighead(no. 61), 6-4, 7-6(4). A fine showing for him. Prakash Mooljee got his second tier-5 juniors title, moving him up to just inside the Top 500 and allowing him to finally break free. He'll have about a month off before heading into regular Tier-4 competition.


CINCINATTI MASTERS

Spasoje Kucerovic, the ninth seed, was the first obstacle this week and both of their previous matches have been tight with one going each way. That wasn't the case here, with Mehul dropping just five games in one of his more impressive matches of the year. He'd had a long week to contemplate the disappointment in Canada, and used it well. In the second round, he dropped only a single game in a very impressive display, giving him what was now his 7th chance in the round of 16 at a big event. The foe was certainly worthy of the occasion, Mick Elder. Unfortunately the seventh time was not the charm, Elder flattened him 6-2, 6-3. He's been playing very well lately, unlike early in the year at Brisbane when Mehul defeated him for the first time.

Neither loss was really a bad one, though both a little disappointing especially in not putting up more of a fight against Elder. He lost to better players both times, and got enough matches in to be ready for what will hopefully be a good run at the US Open. The goal of getting inside the Top 16 is still not realized however.

On the larger scene, Cincinatti was a coming-out party for Antonin Iglar. He beat Benda ... and then Goncharenko ... and then Prieto ... and then Elder in the final. The last pair of matches weren't even close. It's one of the most impressive things I've seen in a long time. Iglar's title is of course his first Masters Shield, and he moves up to #9 in the world, a legitimate member of the elite now and candidate for the World Tour Finals in a few months. He is still about three months shy of his 23rd birthday. By comparison, Gabriel Alastra took about another year to reach this level of achievement, though the all-time greats like Gorritepe, Sullivan, etc. got there a year or so quicker. Still, for a 22-year-old to breach the Top 10 is not something that happens often. Once a decade maybe at most. Nobody will be interested in seeing Antonin Iglar in their draw at the US Open, that much is certain.

After a week off, the focus of the tennis world will switch to Flushing Meadows. Girsh will try to back up his qualifying effort at Wimbledon by doing it again, and Mehul will attempt to improve on last year's third-round effort.

[Brian Swartz]

US OPEN

Girish Girsh made the final round of qualifying without incident, then edged past journeyman Jaromir Simunek, 6-2, 1-6, 6-4. Having succeeding in his goal, he met the best, by far, up-and-coming player in the world in the main draw: Spain's Marcel Bahana, already seeded here at 20 years old. He did manage to get one break but still lost in straight sets, 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(3).

Anil Mehul cruised through his first pair of matches, dropping only five games in each. Eric Gorritepe, who has already effectively given up on his singles career and is focused on trainer preparation after dropping out of the Top 10, was next up. Gorritepe held a 2-1 edge including a win earlier in the year, but this time it was all Mehul, a competitive match but straight sets.

Fourth Round -- On to the Round of 16. Again. 8th time in a little over a year. The foe was Mick Elder who is the defending champ and had certainly taught him a lesson a couple weeks ago in Cincinatti. All signs pointed to the same result here; but Mehul won a tense tiebreak in the opener and went on to take the upset in four! A huge, huge win, his second over Elder and finally he has broken through the wall.

Quarterfinals -- Pierce Gaskell was a surprise to see here, but he's on the rise as well and had nearly as impressive a fourth-round win, knocking off Goncharenko. They'd last played a little over a month ago in Atlanta, Mehul's only loss to Gaskell and one of his worst defeats of the year. This one went a little different; Anil dominated the match, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2.

Semifinals -- The last four at a Slam; certainly this was not expected coming in. Opposing him was the flavor of the month, Antonin Iglar. Iglar had knocked Mehul out of Wimbledon at a much earlier stage, then followed up his masters win in Cincinatti by crushing Prieto and then rallying to beat Topolski in a good four-setter. He was the favorite here as well but another upset was not out of the question. Iglar is on a mission though and prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(2). Mehul could take solace in the fact that nobody played him any tougher here.

In the other semifinal, Perry Hogue clinched the #1 spot for the first time by defeating Almagro. He was beaten in straights though in the final by Iglar, who snagged his first Grand Slam title and has now won his last 12 matches to surge past a number of players far more experienced. He's more vulnerable on other surfaces, but there's no doubt that right know Iglar is the best hardcourt player in the world.

As for Mehul this is a mammoth result. He increased his career winnings by over 20% by taking home over 350k, and leapfrogged past Hammerstein to convincingly take his place in the Top 16. The win over Elder was the big one, the others he should have won but did so convincingly, and gave Iglar a fairly tough match as well. This is the breakthrough he's been waiting for over a year now -- can he build on it?

Elsewhere, Mooljee's first Tier-4 event in Boston resulted in second-round exits both in singles and doubles. He'll go back to tier-5 for at least one more tournament, perhaps vacillating back and forth for a bit yet.

[Brian Swartz]

TOP TEN RANKINGS UPDATE

1. Perry Hogue(25, USA) -- 9,060

The derisions of Hogue as a 'slamless #1' have now begun, as he jumps from 5th and a career-best of 4th to the top spot here. As a finalist at the Australian and United States Slams this year, his bona fides are well-established.

2. Bjorn Benda(25, DEU) -- 8,870

A quarterfinal loss knocks him from the perch he earned over the spring and summer, but not by much.

3. Gabriel Alastra(29, ARG) -- 8,775

Don't count him out for the year-end crown just yet. There's a lot of tennis left to be played.

4. David Prieto(29, ESP) -- 8,660

5. Mick Elder(28, USA) -- 7,665

Elder was back at #1 for a week in the late summer, and now tumbles from second to fifth thanks to the loss to Mehul.

6. Antonin Iglar(22, CZE) -- 6,010

You can pencil in Iglar for the World Tour Finals, where he'll attempt to show that the new kid on the block can succeed on other surfaces. For now though, he's unquestionably joined the elite and will be a force to reckon with for years to come.

7. David Almagro(28, ESP) -- 5,600

8. Viktor Goncharenko(26, RUS) -- 5,510

Goncharenko has been decent since winning at Wimbledon, but hasn't done enough in the current topsy-turvy climate and drops a couple of places.

9. Evgeni Topolski(25, RUS) -- 4,695

Topolski needs more consistency to make any kind of serious run at the top places.

10. Spasoje Kucerovic(29, SRB) -- 3,570

Still hanging on by the skin of his teeth.



Any of the Top 5 still has a very legitimate shot at the year-end #1. The first four have barely a sheet of paper between them in the rankings, which will change almost week to week now. Hogue and Benda could have an interesting but very unbalanced rivalry going on, each dominant on their own turf. Iglar is just as big a story, making really all six players involved in compelling stories of their own as the season enters it's final act.

[Brian Swartz]

SRI LANKA RANKINGS UPDATE

Anil Mehul -- 17th to 15th singles, 383rd to 381st doubles. An 11-5 mark brings him to 40 wins, already better than last year's 37 and there's still several events to go. The breakout semifinal at the USO puts him solidly in the Top 16, and the rest of the year will be about getting set up for the offseason and getting as close to the Top 10, the next goal, as he can by the end of the year.

Girish Girsh -- 168th to 152nd singles, 435th to 438th doubles. Nearly stagnant the last couple months, Girsh did qualify for the last two Slams but at this point is essentially replacing 20-25 point results(good futures tournaments from last year) with 35-point results(GS qualifying, semis in challengers). It is still the case that until he starts getting some challenger titles, it'll be slow progress. I think he's close to breaking through, but not quite there yet.

Prakash Mooljee -- 626th to 475th juniors. Right now the limiting factor as much as anything is physical maturation. Mooljee doesn't have the endurance to play a lot of matches in a week. At his age, a more important measuring stick than ranking is looking at how many players younger than him are ranked ahead, which I'll look at in more detail at the end of the year but he's doing pretty good there.

Manager's Ranking -- 22nd to 21st, 11.6k to 12.3k, a lot of that due to Mehul's USO SF.


Being played out as I write this is the WTC quarterfinal tie against Austria. Much will be determined there, and a month after that the asian swing picks up steam with the Shanghai Masters.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Level 2 Quarterfinals
Sri Lanka vs. Austria, Clay

Monday: A. Mehul d. H. Frankl, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3
Tuesday: J. Hammerstein d. A. Chittoor, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1
Wednesday: J. Hammerstein/T. Weidman d. P. NIlima/A. Chittoor, 6-2, 6-1, 6-4
Thursday: J. Hammerstein d. A. Mehul, 7-5, 6-0, 7-6(5)
Friday: H. Frankl d. A. Chittoor, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3

Austria defeats Sri Lanka 4-1. A disappointing but hardly unexpected result. We've now lost twice in 'my' tenure and both of them to Austria, who will be in the playoff to go up to Group 1 next year while we will not. Unlike last year we were defeated in doubles, Chittoor has been mismanaged this year as previously mentioned but also Prakash Nilima, the consistent cog in doubles through all of our WTC runs, is now 31 and not nearly the player he once was. Mehul won his first match but had one disastrous set against Hammerstein and was only 4 of 18 on break chances. It was still better than he managed last year and wouldn't have been enough to salvage the tie anyway, but still a disappointment.

Sri Lanka drops one spot to 42nd in the world. Anil Mehul will have a busy schedule now the next couple of months as with no WTC action until next year, he'll need to get a lot of matches in order to support training during the off-season. For him, the off-season this year will be nearly two months, everything after the Paris Masters. Next year we will try again to fight for promotion, and it's very possible it will be without Austria in our path. That wouldn't bother me one bit.

[Brian Swartz]

September

The first week of the 'big finish' came at the Japan Open(500) for Anil Mehul. In order to sustain training effectiveness over what will now be a seven-week offseason for him due to the unpleasantness in the WTC recently, he'll need to play at least four events in five weeks, possibly five straight depending on how they go. Most will probably involve doubles as well. By the end of the Paris Masters in November, he'll need to have overplayed a fair amount. This will probably hurt his results a bit but that isn't as important as going into next year with a full head of steam.

After a couple of easy rounds, he had competitive wins over Kecic and Gaskell to reach the final. Julian Hammerstein, who had just eked out an upset over Benda in the other semifinal, waited there. Another close one was expected, but in this case Mehul took it to his rival with a surprisingly easy 6-3, 6-4 win that saw him lose just a dozen points on serve and fail to suffer a single break chance! This was the fifth meeting between the two, the first coming just over a year ago, and Mehul has now won two and dropped three, 2-1 on hardcourt, winless in two chances on clay both in the WTC.

With the win, he moved up to 13th ahead of the Shanghai Masters, leaping declining veterans Becceril and the incomparable Gorritepe. More than that, it was the first professional tournament title ever for a player from Sri Lanka, a real piece of history, and will certainly serve to offset the points he's going to lose from last year's WTC run. A fine way to back up his USO run and get back on track -- he's looking good heading into the end of the year.

There were good results elsewhere also. Girsh Girsh was in Recife for a small challenger the same week, and he proceeded to brush aside former conqueror Joseph Skirrow 3 and 3 in the final to claim his first challenger-level title and move up to 125th! Skirrow has not been managed as well, and Girsh has legitimately at least equaled him after it looked a year or so ago as if Skirrow would be a major force in his generation. This is a great example of how talent alone can't win by itself -- the right kind of work and training, intelligently pursued, is also required. Skirrow is still a somewhat better athlete, more on Mehul's level in that regard, but Girsh has clearly surpassed him technically.

Prakash Mooljee seems to have played his last tier-5. Yes, I've said that before, but he rattled off another title, aided no doubt by the fact that the event was played in Colombo. It's rare to have a chance to play in front of a Sri Lankan crowd and pretty much only happens in juniors. With the win he's just inside the Top 400 now in juniors and should be seeded in all tier-4 events, allowing him to consistently progress well into the draws. We'll see how that actually plays out.

Titles for all three of the players that are still developing in the same week, a very fine thing to celebrate as we move towards the end of another season. On to Shanghai, where the big question is: can anyone derail the Antonin Iglar express?

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

Mehul was the 11th-seed here and had a surprisingly tough first pair of matches. In the second round, he barely escaped 40th-ranked Olav Birkeland of Sweden, 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-6(4). Birkeland actually outpointed him 117-112 and he would have had little to complain about had he lost. That set up a match against Viktor Goncharenko, which was close as their last meeting had been but Goncharenko won it 7-5 in the fifth for his third win in as many encounters between the two. Again it could have gone either way.


Normally this would be mildly disappointing, but Mehul has played a lot of matches the last couple of weeks; he qualified in doubles which was unexpected and is a bit overplayed at this point. At his best, maybe he wins that encounter. Regardless, he got enough in that he'll be able to take a week off before the last two tournaments of the season for him, and a third-round finish equals his performance here last year so at least there's nothing lost. There's a two-week gap, then the Paris Masters will end the year for most of the top players.

[britrock88]

I'm having an interesting time with my group of 18-22 year olds--I can get their skill/service developed into 4+/3+ territory, and make them competitive in challenger-level events, but I'm having trouble getting them inside the Top 200. It could be because I enter them in the GSL and Masters events, which take up slots in their rankings formula.

[Brian Swartz]

Multiple things could be going on there. I would advise that it is not best to enter players into Masters or GSL that early. I don't enter Masters until players are at least into the Top 100 and higher than that for most of them; Top 150 approx. for Slams. If a player isn't ranked that high then even if they qualify they aren't getting anywhere in the main draw and it's counterproductive I think.

If you want to post a screenshot or a little more detail on the players(with skill/serve/strength/speed/mentality scores) I can give you a bit of feedback on about where they should be ranked and what events I would be playing them in if I was managing them. It all depends on how good they are, really.

[britrock88]

Here's my stable of guys in two different game worlds.

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks. I think you have a group of good-but-not great players objectively, with endurance being the main limitation. I think endurance is the single most important attribute, as it allows you to train them more. YMMV but as a general rule I don't play them there until they can benefit from it(Top 150 for Slams, Top 100 for Indian Wells/Miami, Top 50-60 for other Masters). If they don't have an excellent chance of making it through qualifying, it's a waste of time in my opinion.

It might be related, but I would also suggest less tournaments and more practice overall. You appear to be doing an excellent job at keeping them out of the 'red zone' in terms of form, but until a player reaches about the Top 50 -- at which point they should be playing all Slams/Masters or at least most of them -- I think this is still overplaying. Development first again. Anybody else, as a general rule, shouldn't be playing in a tournament the following week unless it is necessary to avoid the form penalty by going under 15.0. More specificially, for challenger players:

** The last challenger is in week 48 and the first one in the new year is in week 2. In order to 'bridge the gap', by the end of week 48, you need to be up to about 25 form or just a hair under. This is exactly the situation in which Girsh finds himself in RR1 for my players, he's a bit higher ranked than your guys but not much and still very much a challenger player. Week 44 just ended, he'll need to play in week 46 to stay out of the 'red zone' and at least once more in 47-48, maybe both weeks to get up there where he needs to be. Note that for juniors/futures players this isn't necessary since they have year-round options.

** Since form declines by percentage(8% decrease each week), the higher it is, the faster it goes down. Combine that with the fact that there's always a chance you lose early in a tournament and are forced into practice events to use up your fatigue for the week, and it's best for development to play less tournaments.

** It's always good to look for opportunities where there are a lot of challengers in a week and you can 'play up' a level and still have a chance to go deep in the draw. A couple of your higher-ranked guys might be able to get away with a CH1 once in a great while but only if there are multiple CH+ events that week, etc.

** To stay above the 15-form line, all you need is to have 16.3 or more the previous week. So, if you aren't below 16.3, most of the time you shouldn't be entering another tournament the next week. Practice, practice, practice(with no apologies whatsoever to Allen Iverson)

Player-Specific Suggestions

If I were you(I'm not, have fun with the game whatever you decide), this is what I would personally do.

** All four should be playing CH3's primarily, and on surfaces they are at least decent on(appears to be hardcourts will be best in most circumstances, but again this a week-to-week thing depending on what tournaments are available). You are doing it exactly right by playing both doubles and singles, the idea is to get in as many matches as possible, take whatever points you can get, and then take as long of a break as you can for practice tournaments to build up your abilities -- lather, rinse, repeat.

** I would drop Delacave like a bad habit. Probably about 100th is the best he's going to get. I'd do the same with Bollom, although he's better, and then you have a gap between your two players in each world. Hansell I like the best. He's got almost everything you want except for strength. I'd be surprised if you can't turn him into a Top 30 player. Kazic probably Top 50(just ballpark stuff here, depending on their aging factors, etc.). None of them are Slam-champion guys but you can have a lot of fun with them while replacing the other two. That'd be my call anyway.

Not necessarily immediately, but I'd be scouring the new juniors every Monday looking for a new player. To find them, remember that endurance is far more important than talent. The difference between a below-average(Manohar, 2.0) and elite(Mooljee, 4.7) player in talent is only 11 xp points per week. That works out to less than 10k over the course of their productive career, or 2-3 extra training sessions. It's not nothing, but it's close to it. Endurance is several times more important -- a similar gap there would mean 150-200 xp points a week, roughly 15x as much. Anybody who doesn't have at least a 1.4 endurance when they come in is somebody you want to ignore. I think second-most important is athleticism(strength/speed) and mentality. Since you can't train those abilities, they either have them or they don't.

So looking at the new players, I'd do a quick calculation of their peak endurance/speed/strength, look at mentality/talent which doesn't change, and then if you have players who are close how developed their skills are will also matter. Surfaces/Home Advantage can safely be ignored. Might be useful here to illustrate a couple of RR1 examples:

** Brad Bennett(USA, 14y 29w, 67% aged). Until I decided to do this I hadn't seen him, and my jaw figuratively hit the floor. He's not 'sexy', doesn't have that uber-talent that just makes you amazed, but he has the following:

Skill: 0.6
Service: 0.3
Doubles: 0.1
Talent: 2.8*
Strength: 2.3
Speed: 1.8
Mentality: 2.3
Endurance: 2.1!!!

I don't hire anybody not from Sri Lanka, but if I did I'd be on this guy like yesterday. I want to slap 95% of the managers in RR1 right this very minute, because no way should he be available. Talent is just a bit above average there nothing exciting, mentality a bit below average so he's not particularly clutch. But if we do the math, at peak he will have:

Strength: 3.4(good)
Speed: 2.7(a hair over average)
Endurance: 4.7

That's better endurance than any of my players and I specifically emphasize it when they are created. Athleticism is almost as good as Mehul/Mooljee. Properly trained, he'll have a fairly meteoric career but probably be better at his peak than anybody I have. He'll at least be as good. Should be a Top 10 player, and he's just sitting there waiting to be snapped up :). He's been around for almost six months so some of that potential is already wasted, but still ... you don't get youngsters with that kind of endurance very often.


** Greg Sanderson(AUS, 14y 26w, 64% aged)

3.8 talent, 1.8 endurance, 2.4 strength, 2.2 speed, 1.3 mentality.

Well the mentality sucks here and he's going to lose to anybody close to him in ability, but having said that endurance will end up at a very fine 4.4, 3.8 strength, 3.4 speed which is better athleticism than anyone I've gotten. Again, I'd be snapping him up in a second.

To find these guys, what I did is to simply sort the list of available 14yo by endurance. Then I just looked through to find guys who were high on there and had a decent mix of the other abilities, taking a closer look at any who catch my eye. There's no question you can do at least somewhat better than what you have, it takes some patience to train them up of course.

Any questions?

[britrock88]

Wow. What a masterclass!

I will admit that I went in with my 150 starter points in each world and took this approach: spend 60 on the most talented and well-rounded 14yo I could find (Kazic/Hansell), then spend the other 90 on a ~16yo that would be a little ahead in developmental terms so I had a better idea of how to develop the 14yos. At this point, we both see that the younger guys have essentially caught up to the elder guys and have brighter career arcs.

To this point, I've been chasing XP through practice tournaments and friendlies after early tourney exits. Are either of the older guys worth turning into a trainer, seeing that I have none? I could spend a little time building up their doubles skills (which is very cheap to do) and reap the 1/3 multiplier in the trainer rating formula. In any case, they're in the neighborhood of 3.0 trainers.

I've really enjoyed seeing Kazic progress in the context of other Serbian players. That, combined with this dynasty (thanks again for turning me and others on to this!), is pushing me toward focusing on a smaller nation or two and seeing what I can do there.

I will gladly accept your advice on the importance of endurance. Your post made me dive back into the help section on player info. I see now where you can read between the lines on the relative importance of endurance to talent--endurance allows you to train more, whereas talent is just a relatively small natural boost to the process. And I also can make sense of the progression of a player's athleticism with the aging factor in play--that's a key detail I had missed before.

Thanks again for sharing your wisdom! I'll try to make sure that Kazic and Hansell have bright days ahead of them.

[britrock88]

Uh, better thought. I should probably spend a bunch of the points I have to hire players on a veteran who's very skilled, and make that guy a trainer.

[Brian Swartz]

You're welcome, and I'm glad I was able to help(particular since we aren't competing in the same game world, although I've been toying with the idea of joining a second one ... ).

Anyway, your last post has the best idea. If you want to stick with the game longterm which it certainly appears that you do, yes get a trainer. You can't max a player out in terms of their potential without it. Dump the weaker pair of players, get an experienced one in their place that you can make into a decent trainer quickly, then after you do that you can replace them with a younger talent, etc.

A 3.0 trainer is of minimal benefit, but you should be able to find much better. To do so, if you look at the oldest age bracket(27+) and leave the sort on Cost, look for guys who are at least in their mid-30s on the first couple or few pages of that. That should give you some idea of what kind of players are available. The younger ones who are available are probably not going to be very good, require more work, etc. Anil Manohar is a great example from my game. I don't talk about him much because he's simply training and playing FT3s(exciting stuff, that :P). But his career best ranking is 238th, I didn't pick him up until midway through his career, and he literally didn't play at all in juniors or early in his pro career, was never hired by another manager, so he blew a lot of his potential out the window. And he's over a 4.1 trainer equivalent right now with several more years of training available. The higher you go the harder it gets to improve -- he's near the end of the point where doubles training is best(at about 3.6 there) and will be switching to service/doubles alternating soon, but the point is he'd be a solid trainer right now and has been screwed up/undeveloped for a large part of his career and wasn't that talented to begin with(1.3 endurance right now, a pedestrian 2.9 at his apex).

I found a guy near the top of the list who is 36y28w, 68% aging(on the downslope here of course, basically the same as an early junior but on the opposite end of the career). 4.3 skill, 3.5 serve, 5.0 doubles. By my calculations(remembering that doubles doesn't suffer the aging decline that the others do), if he just saved the xp payment required to be a trainer and cashed it in right away with no more training he'd be a 5.0 trainer right now! It's rare to find players that good, he already has service and doubles maxed out and was dumped a few months ago by a manager who has ... only a 4.7 trainer. Why??? But I digress. Finding players who can be turned into a 4.5 trainer or higher quickly is pretty easy in my game world and so I'd assume probably would be for you as well. The difference between a 4.5 and a 5.0 is still something, but a lot closer than either of us are right now and getting a couple of them in pretty quickly would help Kazic/Tanner develop and give you some experience with the process. Or you could be a little more patient and spend a few years getting a player all the way up to maximum before retiring them as a trainer. Either way you'd be set to max or near-max your next 'youth project', and then now with some more experience with the game would have a much better chance of really making them great.

One more point in this excessively long-winded post about margins at the top. Another thing you could check in your world of course, but here's how my uni sits:

#1(Bjorn Benda) -- 5.0 skill, 4.1 serve, 3.9 str, 3.3 spd, 3.6 ment

#10(David Alvarez) -- 4.9 skill, 4.0 serve, 2.8 str, 3.6 spd, 3.7 ment

#20(Oliver Challenger) -- 4.5 skill, 4.0 serve, 3.7 str, 3.1 spd, 3.9 ment

Challenger actually understates the situation because he's falling like a sinking ship and isn't playing like the #20 player in the world anymore. But look at the difference between Benda and Alvarez. A pretty small athleticism and virtually non-existent technical gap. The difference between 'great' and 'excellent' is miniscule(Benda has won 86% of his matches on the season, Alvarez 80% but the rankings points gap is nearly three to one) -- and by the way the next couple of generations of players look to be even more competitive. Raising a champion is about creating, via proper management, miniscule advantages over your opponent.

I read a study about the recently ended real-life 'reign of terror' by Rafael Nadal at the French Open. While dominating the event for a decade, he proceeded to lose 44% of the points he played(including the early-round matches against players he could thrash with his eyes closed practically). Winning another half-percent of points is an enormous advantage in tennis, and thinking about this as I've developed a strategy for RR over time has really focused me on maximizing. Proper management, the gaining of very small bonuses over time, has a monstrous cumulative effect.

Getting a trainer, followed by a new carefully chosen youth player, would let you reach much greater heights -- no question about it. Good luck!

[Brian Swartz]

On the endurance vs. talent thing: I just realized that I overstated the case, my brain wasn't working properly and I miscalculated with the example I used. I'll post something more accurate when I'm not tired :P. The essential point is still correct, endurance is significantly more important than talent but not to the degree I stated.

*slap self*

Some surprising stuff happening in the Paris Masters as this year winds down in my universe. How is that for a flagrant and completely unjustified cliffhanger?

[Brian Swartz]

Ok, last wall of text post(I think) on the strategy/analytics side:

The difference between a below-average(Manohar, 2.0) and elite(Mooljee, 4.7) player in talent is only 11 xp points per week. That works out to less than 10k over the course of their productive career, or 2-3 extra training sessions. It's not nothing, but it's close to it. Endurance is several times more important -- a similar gap there would mean 150-200 xp points a week, roughly 15x as much. Anybody who doesn't have at least a 1.4 endurance when they come in is somebody you want to ignore.

Bolded is the key. 11xp per day, not per week. That's still not as much as you can get from a high endurance. It should also be noted that talent never changes over the course of your career, while endurance is low for young/old players so you don't get the full advantage of it except for a few years in your early 20s. It's still more important, but maybe 2x or a little less as compared to talent. so I'd prioritize this way in choosing a youngster that will have a bright future:

1. Endurance
2. Talent
3. Mentality(due to the small tolerances between good and great players at the high end)
4. Athleticism(speed/strength)
5. Skill/Service(much less important than the others since there's not all that much variance here and training is quick for a young player).

[Brian Swartz]

October

A couple updates to get caught up on. I forgot to include the conclusion of Shanghai, in which Benda took possession of the driver's seat for year-end #1 by winning tight matches against Almagro and Elder to take his first big title off of clay. Meanwhile, Iglar was a shocking third-round upset, ending his run of hardcourt dominance for the moment.

Mehul headed off to the Valencia Open(500) in Spain the week before Paris, and got himself through a tight final-set tiebreak against Isaac Malpica(10-8) before losing to David Prieto 7-5, 7-6(2) in the semifinals. Objectively he's better than Prieto but he's overplayed to get set up for the offseason as mentioned.

Prakash Mooljee went off to a Tier-4 in Nova Gorica(Slovenia), and I was shocked that he wasn't seeded there! Junior events are so much harder to predict but there were a lot more top players at this one. He was smacked down 6-3, 6-0 in the first round although he did make the semis in doubles. Still, one thing that is becoming obvious is that I still have some to learn about training juniors players and getting them into the right events.


Paris Masters

For Anil Mehul, it was an unexpected and even undesired success here. Singles went as you might expect for a tired player, although he coincidentally had the same matchups as in Shanghai. First-round bye, beat Malpica easily this time(2 & 0!) and then lost to Prieto in the third round, again in straight sets. But in doubles, he qualified ... and just kept winning, knocking out the first and seventh-seeded teams along with partner Hugo Sanchez(MEX) en route to the semifinals! At most I figured a first-round loss, if he got through qualifying. It's better than the alternative of underplaying, but he's now really tired and will suffer a bit for it in his first week of the off-season which begins now. He moves up to a personal and Sri Lanka historical best 100th in doubles, fairly irrelevant but there it is. It looks like he'll finish the year at a career-high 12th in singles, with a 52-20 mark on the year(last season was 37-17 against somewhat diminished competition). He's turned the corner, and will now spend the next several weeks preparing for a determined charge against the best in the world next year.

At the business end of things, Bjorn Benda ran the table once again and you can pretty much pencil him in now as the #1 to end 2039. Iglar in the quarters gave him a battle and Goncharenko in the final pushed him to three sets, but with back-to-back Masters crowns off his favored clay, Benda pushes his total to four Masters shields, all this year, and has shown he has enough of a well-rounded game to be a force anywhere. The gauntlet has been laid down, and from the chaotic competition of the last few months a clear champion has emerged. The German is a step above all comers right now.


World Tour Finals Preview

So in three weeks time the best will meet to confirm Bjorn Benda as champion. He has a lead of well over a thousand points now, and the only way he doesn't finish the year on top is if he loses all his matches and David Prieto wins all of his and takes the title. Prieto has only made it out of group play here once(he won it three years ago) and didn't take a single match last year. That just plain isn't going to happen.

Perry Hogue's moment in the sun appears to have lasted about a year, he's faded the last few months and the general consensus is that it was the best the tennis world will ever see from him. As last year's runner-up, he has to do well to even maintain contact with the other top players. The stakes are even higher for Gabriel Alastra, who after being #1 the last three years and taking the title here last year, will enter play seventh in the field. While his counterparts Prieto, Elder, and Almagro are still here as well, this is the last hurrah for them as a major force. The sun is setting.

Benda and Hogue will be joined by first-timer Viktor Goncharenko as a third member of what is now ostensibly the ruling class, though it'd be more accurate to say Benda rules over a hodgepodge as Goncharenko has been inconsistent since Wimbledon and Hogue is apparently on the decline now. Antonin Iglar, just past his 23rd birthday, will look to make a statement as he represents the next generation that is increasingly making it's presence felt.

The main drama here will be in how 2-4(Prieto/Elder/Hogue) and 5-7(Goncharenko/Iglar/Alastra) shake out. Anybody in the second trio could move up a few spots with a great performance, but it really all boils down to the fact that everyone's chasing Benda.

With Goncharenko and Iglar joining, two players from last year will not be returning. Spasoje Kucerovic has given up the singles game to focus on doubles as of late in the year, tumbling well out of the Top 10. Far more disappointing is the case of Evgeni Topolski. The Russian, barely 26, finishes the year just out of the field and really should be in it -- he's been a major disappointment this season and unquestionably a waste. 2039 and 2040 should be his best two years, the peak of his abilities, and it's clear that without a major recommitment to the game he'll have to be regarded as an underachiever. .

[Izulde]

*steals strategy info*

[Brian Swartz]

Good luck Izulde! I wonder what world(s) you are in if you care to share?

I decided just to be difficult to jump into #2 and compete there -- chose that one because it's the one with the most people. I will say that the fast pace is already driving me nuts and it's also clear that, as would make sense, it's more difficult to find quality players(455 managers in that one, 170 in #1 where I've been at). Having a player like Kazic is more of an achievement that it would be in #1, and it's also a lot harder to manage them well because of the increased speed of the simulation. Got myself a decent youth and an experienced player to get some points, I don't expect much out of either of them, I'll need to bide my time and hopefully eventually find someone better.

[britrock88]

I'm in 2 and 12, FWIW.

[Brian Swartz]

November

Prakash Mooljee tallied another Tier-5 win, this one in Zagreb, and made the final in doubles as well. That his fourth tournament at that level, pushing him to 330th in the junior annals with the year's end coming up, and he'll try to successfully crack the Tier-4 wall once more before the latest crop of 18-year-olds turns pro.

Girish Girsh was very busy getting his late-season rush of matches in. At a Tier-1 challenger in Geneva he figured to have a chance against any of the top seeds, but lost a tough quarterfinal to Slovakian Cestmir Dziadosz, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4. The next week he fared better in Bratislava. Most of the best players there lost early as there was a lot of fatigue going around. A narrow victory in the final over Spain's Eduardo Serrano, 7-5, 7-6(2), got Girsh the biggest title of his career and second challenger, moving him up to just outside the Top 100. In Japan for the Toyota tier-2 event to finish off his season, he moved just inside it by reaching the semis where he was blasted aside by Manne Pascual. The former world no. 12 is a little out of his league, but it was still a fine finish to the year and despite losing both doubles matches he played over the three-week stretch, Girsh is set up perfectly to get through the five-week offseason and be ready to go again in January.


World Tour Finals

Bjorn Benda made this a proper coronation, rambling undefeated through his group and failing to drop a set in sweeping aside all comers. Gabriel Alastra fittingly gave him his toughest match, 7-6(4), 7-6(4) in a razor-thin semifinal, while Almagro was less of a challenge in the championship match. With a nearly three-thousand-point-lead, Benda is head and shoulders ahead of the field at the moment.

Antonin Iglar won one match but failed to get out of group play, Viktor Goncharenko had a solid semifinal run in his debut, and the big loser was Perry Hogue, the only player to go winless for the week. The American, who was #1 for four weeks just a couple of months ago, has clearly hit a poor patch and it's doesn't appear likely he's going to recover from it.

So the month-long offseason is upon us, with final 2039 rankings and 2040 predictions upcoming after that.

[ntndeacon]

I just joined world 1 too

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup

There's a week yet left in the season, but the WTC Playoffs have completed. Our nemesis Austria, having edged Denmark 3-2 in the Level 2 Final, beat South Africa 4-1 to promote to Level 1 for the 2040 season. I have mixed feelings about this. I won't miss having to face them(they are still the only nation to beat us so far) but on the other hand they get to compete against the very best in the world, which is our ultimate goal and they stopped us from achieving it.

Revenge will be served cold if at all in this case.

Denmark is the only other nation to promote, as they defeated New Caledonia 3-2. Serbia and Monaco were relegated to Level 2 and will be among our potential foes. Sri Lanka finishes the year at 43rd in the world, just eight spots up from 51st a year ago. Our rise was definitely slowed by being knocked out earlier than usual. We've been drawn in Group 3 of Level 2 again, and will face Israel(29th), Romania(30th), and the Slovak Republic(26th) with Romania coming up first on an indoor court.

Israel is recently promoted from Level 3, going undefeated until a 3-2 loss to Luxembourg in the semis, but getting past Chinese Taipei easily 4-1 in the playoff. They have no Top 100 players and should be an easy out. Romania is a bit better, they also promoted from Level 3 and were beaten by Luxembourg as well(4-1 in the finals) before blanking Uruguay. They should not pose a serious threat to us either. The Slovak Republic lost two of three group matches last year, getting past only relegated Uruguay. All in all it really is a pretty easy group and we should easily win it with Romania probably second, followed by the Slovak Republic and Israel most likely. Looking around at the other groups, Group 3 seems to me to be by far the weakest. A stroke of luck for us, virtually guaranteeing at least a return to the quarterfinals.

[Brian Swartz]

2039 FINAL TOP TEN RANKINGS

And here we are, the end of a second year in this dynasty(and nearly a decade total for me) in the books. Thanks for joining me on the journey so far!

1. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 25) -- 11,450

Championships in Shanghai, Paris, and at the World Tour Finals in Belgium stamped Benda as the undisputed best player in the world. He hasn't lost an important match since the US Open three months ago, and made the quarters or better in all four slams and five Masters events. He's certainly helped by a weak cadre of contenders in his age bracket, but you can only beat the opponents in front of you. Either at or close to the peak of his powers, Benda is probably headed into a dominant 2040 campaign.

2. David Prieto(ESP, 29) -- 8,850

You can make an argument that despite his age, Prieto just had his finest season. He set a career-best with 74 wins against 17 losses and was only a sliver better in terms of winning percentage once(73-16 in '37, two years ago). The crown jewel was taking the title at the Australian Open and he'll need to repeat there if he wants to sustain this lofty position.

3. Mick Elder(USA, 28) -- 8,390

First-week defeats at the USO and Wimbledon hampered what was a spectacular season in many respects. He made six Masters finals, more than any other player, but walked away with just two crowns. Almost, but not quite in terms of being a consistent #1 threat, Elder is still more than a match for most of the elite.

4. Perry Hogue(USA, 25) -- 7,540

All signs point to a fairly quick decline now for the meteoric Hogue. He snagged the #1 ranking for almost a month in the late summer, but after a fantastic stretch lasting almost exactly one year his fall performances were disappointing, and in Perry's case it looks like a decline in athleticism, not a slump. It might be all he can do to stay in the Top 10 this year.

5. Viktor Goncharenko(RUS, 26) -- 6,420

The man who emphatically broke Alastra's stranglehold on the sport with a stunning run at Wimbledon has been decidedly unimpressive if solid since then. The general consensus is that he's a one-hit wonder who will hang around for a while, but has probably seen his lone brief moment in the sun. He has no Masters and just a single 500 to his credit, bolstering this argument.

6. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 23) -- 6,410

Iglar is the standard-bearer of the next generation, and his time has come. Objectively, he's the only player who has any real chance to unseat Benda. It's almost certain that he will, the only question is when. Probably it will take another year to two years, but if he can replicate the form he showed in crusing through all opposition in Cincinatti and the US Open, that could be sooner rather than later. I still think he'll be remembered as the best player in the post-Gorritepe area, Alastra included, before his time is done. Best guess is he finishes this year as #2 behind the German champion.

7. Gabriel Alastra(ARG, 30) -- 6,155

Flashes such as he showed at the tour finals are now few and far between, making this an opportune time to assess Alastra's place in history. His 6 Grand Slam titles are tied for 10th, 8 Masters Shields are a bit out of the top group(10th is 10 of them), and 92 weeks as #1 puts him 9th. Overall he's a solid second-tier great, bolstered by three consecutive seasons('36-'38) as the year-end #1. Not a transcendent talent, but definitely the best of his age bracket.

8. David Almagro(ESP, 29) -- 5,790

A strong finish to the year, but he's not getting any younger and missing his best event(Roland Garros) really hurt.

9. Evgeni Topolski(RUS, 26) -- 4,515

Toposki is a big, big-time disappointment. He should have been the top challenger to Benda at this point in my opinion. He's been mismanaged and seems to have lacked confidence, killer instinct ... something. The window is nearly closed for him. This past year probably should have been his best, he'll either make a big splash this year(unlikely) or be known to the history books as an underachiever.

10. David Alvarez(ESP, 27) -- 3,650

Alvarez is the current holder of the last spot, which seems to rotate between a series of players who can't make a serious move up. I expect to see him off the top page by year's end.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 36th to 12th singles, 291st to 104th doubles. I'll be looking at his prospects for the coming year in more detail, but it was obviously a fine year, a career-best 52-20 win/loss and he won more prize money this year than he had lifetime coming in.


Girish Girsh -- 357th to 98th singles, 1557th to 424th doubles. Girsh has reached what is, based on Mehul's experienced, the last 'speed bump' in his rise through the rankings. He probably won't move up all that much this year. It will be a year of adjustment and acclimation as he will be playing all the Slams, at least the biggest Masters(Miami/Indian Wells), and a smattering of larger challengers along with probably a 250-level tournament or two. He does not, yet, have the advantage of fattening up his ranking with WTC points that Mehul and Chittoor had on their ascent.

Many of the players in the 50-100 range are still better than Girsh is. 2040 will probably be a year of seasoning, but by the end of it he should be ready to start reaching greater heights again. The more attentive readers may recall that he played a somewhat accelerated tournament schedule at the beginning of this last year; those points will now start to come off but continuing to build his technical abilities is still much more important. There is a solid foundation but he's not yet quite ready to be a top player, and a fair amount of fluctuation in his ranking is expected. When he's ready to move up again, the tournament results will begin to show it, and he continues to be on a strong path long-term.


Prakash Mooljee -- 168th juniors. The first 'establishing' year is in the books for the 15-year-old. Juniors throw a wrench into the works this time of year as the 18-year-olds are removed from the rankings at the start of each year. On the professional tour, veteran players slide down the rankings gradually, making such changes much less abrupt. In this case, Mooljee gained about 100 places almost overnight. He did very well in the last event, reaching a Tier-4 final in singles and winning the tournament in doubles. That will allow him several weeks of practice before he needs to get out there again. He'll slide down the rankings a fair amount in this time, since the bigger events are now more accessible to players who weren't ranked high enough until the 18-year-olds turned pro; it is typical for my juniors to actually gradually decline in their ranking for at least the first few months of the year because these other players are gaining points quickly, and it makes for a chaotic start to the year in which it is difficult to pick well what tournaments to enter.

As a baseline for looking at how Mooljee is doing as a player(good, on the whole), I like to look at how many players are ranked above a junior player that are younger. 168th may not look that impressive on paper but most of those above him are 17 and 16-year-olds, significantly more advanced in their physical maturity. In point of fact he is doing even better than I imagined; there is not a single player who is both younger and higher-ranked! He's just past 15 and a half, and there are only about a half-dozen(all at least several weeks older) who have not reached their 16th birthday yet. Not bad for a guy who I thought was pretty raw when he joined my 'stable' of players. The future's looking very good here.


Anil Manohar -- 442nd to 580th singles, 1472nd to 870th doubles. As expected, Manohar's rankings are 'evening out' as he works toward becoming a trainer. In less than a month he'll reach the point where his doubles skill has 'caught up' with the rest of his abilities and then splitting time between doubles and serving will commence for some while. He made better than expected progress this year, a hair under 4.0 as an expected trainer rating a year ago and now he's at 4.134 with almost eight years left to work on it. Of course, it is harder and harder to improve the better you get, but he should be able to finish as a very good though not quite maximum trainer by the time he retires into that role.


Manager Ranking -- 29th to 20th, 10k to 13.5k points. It's worth noting here that manager of both Benda and Iglar(a wealth of riches!) has taken over the #1 spot for the first time. Only three active players have ever been #1 on the rankings here, and they are current top 3, 7000 points clear of the field with at least 37k points each. I won't be in that stratosphere anytime soon but should be able to continue creeping upwards.

[Brian Swartz]

My minimum goal for Anil Mehul going into the 2040 season is to be one of the Top 8 who make the World Tour Finals. The semifinal run at the USO, specifically knocking off Mick Elder in particular, really showed that his time has now come. Beyond that though, how much can we really expect? I decided to take a more in-depth look at the top players and what to expect from them, working out on overall rating. As I did this, I also thought it might perhaps be useful to explain the various aspects of a player's abilities more, particularly since we have a few who are playing the game reading my musings. This post will detail that breakdown so for anyone interested in the results of my universe but not the technical analysis, feel free to skip the rest of this :). Most of this is in the game documentation but some is either not explained all that well or not synthesized in a way that, at least to me, makes sense.

Aging Factor -- All players have somewhere from 95% to 105% -- the lower end will result in a longer 'prime' as a professional, but players will not be as good as juniors and will not be able to train as much. Overall, less is better in terms of great pros which is what I focus on. Mehul is 95%, Girsh 96%, Mooljee 97% so my players are all on that end of the scale, quite intentionally. Most of the Top 10 is as well. Perry Hogue is a notable exception; he's about to turn 26 which isn't that old at all -- Mehul will probably hit his peak about then -- but I note him as a player in decline because he has a 103%(hence the meteoric label). Generally speaking junior #1 will have a 103% or more. A great example in my universe is a dominant junior between Alastra and Benda in age, Lubos Nedved. He is now almost 27, and basically won everything in juniors as a 17 and 18-year old and terrorized up-and-coming players(including Mehul) for a few years after that. He won the last five junior grand slams he was eligible for, but as a pro he has won just a pair of 250-level events and nothing higher, peaking at 19th and now 28th in the world and declining. Hogue is obviously a better version of this but he was never going to be a top player for long.

Age % -- This can be confused with aging factor but is not the same thing. This describes where a player is in their development, and is a multiplier that determines their actual ability at the time. For example, Mooljee has a raw ability of a little over 2.0 in skill, but because he's a young player, age % is only 68% and so he plays at a level of 1.4 instead. Skill, service, speed, strength, and endurance(twice, i.e. multiplied by 68% or whatever twice instead of once) are all affected by Age %, but the other abilities(mentality, doubles, talent, etc.) are not.

Static Attributes

These do not change throughout a player's career. They do not improve or decline with age, and they cannot be trained. They simply are -- a player is either good at them, or they are not, as a natural ability or lack thereof.

Talent -- Every player gains experience points, to be used in improving trainable skills(below) on a daily basis. It is the same amount every day. Mooljee(4.7) gets 31 xp per day, Manohar(2.0) gets 20 xp per day, etc. For particularly young and old players, this is especially important since they can't practice as much, meaning a higher proportion of their experience comes from their natural affinity or talent for the sport.

Mentality -- 'Clutch' ability that is used on important points, game points, break points, match points, etc.

Home Advantage -- Bonus given to players in front of their home crowd. This is largest in small events, and smallest in bigger ones: it disappears completely as a non-factor in Slams. I note it here only because it's there, but really it has a quite minor impact on the game. All else being equal I will play junior/future events in a player's home country, but of course all else is rarely equal and by the time you reach the level where it's really important to win, this virtually doesn't matter anymore .


Variable Attributes

All other attributes change based on a player's natural development curve(i.e., their age % which depends on the aging factor). The ones listed in this section cannot be trained either.

Endurance -- As I've mentioned, this is in my opinion the single most important attribute of a player. It defines how much a player can practice before become too tired to benefit from it. The formula here is simple: points played divided by endurance equals fatigue. I.e., a match with 100 points(for simplicity) and a player with 2.0 endurance will result in 50 fatigue. Above 500 fatigue performance penalties set in very quickly, so overworking a player beyond a certain point is just counterproductive. Since age % is divided in twice here, endurance both improves and declines much faster than anything else. This makes it doubly important to take advantadge of the 2-3 year 'physical peak' at which a player is at their maximum endurance(Girsh is about in the middle of this right now for me). That period is where trainers really shine, since these players can't play enough practice matches at that point to use up all of their fatigue allotment.

Strength -- Added directly to a player's skill to determine their playing ability in matches, but at a 20% rate(i.e., divided by five).

Speed -- The admin mentioned some years back that speed is a more complicated matter than strength, and never released the formula for it's effect. They said it was probably about the same impact as strength, but a number of players have mentioned they think strength is actually more effective in their players. It is generally thought to have the most impact on return of serve, but this is purely a logic-based conjecture.


Trainable Attributes

I've referred to these as the 'technical abilities/skills' at times. These are what I, as a manager, can improve using the experience points saved up via talent, matches, and training sessions.

Skill -- Basic rally ability of a player. This is used in all points, and is affected by age % as well.

Serve -- A player's serve ability is added to skill when they are the server. I.e, a player with 4.0 skill and 3.0 serve would have a base ability of 4.0 when returning, 7.0 when serving(before adding in speed/strength/mentality/etc. affects). Serve is also affected by age %.

Doubles -- Doubles is added to Skill in doubles matches, and(obviously) not used in singles. Importantly, it is not affected by age %, unlike the other trainable attributes.

Since Skill is always used but Serve only when serving, it is sensible and pretty much universally practiced to train Skill at least somewhat more.

Ok, so that's pretty much everything I know about the player attributes, all of which is a setup for:


Bryan's Overall Player Rating Formula

** Skill +
** 50% of Serve(again, since it's used half the time) +
** 40% of Mentality(a guess on it's importance, this is a matter of personal taste and the magnitude of the effect has not been publicly defined. Based on what I've seen this is a reasonable guess in my opinion. It may be a bit high but I don't think by much if it is) +
** 20% of Strength(official) +
** 20% of Speed(official estimate)

There are other matters such as a player's bonuses on the four surfaces, bonus or penalty depending on their form, and so on but all of these are completely within the control of the manager to properly prepare their player for success. The rating here is meant to simply describe the overall ability of a player at a given point in their career, to which good/mediocre/bad player management will add it's attendant effects.

[Brian Swartz]

2040 Outlook

Here's how the Top 20 shakes out in my universe, Game World 1, as the new year approaches:

1. Benda(9.93, 93%, 0-2)

One thing I like about how this works out is that we can see right away that an even 10.0 would be a pretty darn good estimate for a 'great player'. This provides for easy comparisons further down the list. The % given is each player's current age %, i.e. development stage. A rule of thumb I've seen but never verified is that 92-94% equates a player's peak. If so, then Benda is really at the apex of his career, which would make sense. It will be interesting(at least for a math-nerd such as I am) to track the numbers here over the next couple of years and see whether that is completely accurate or not. I also included Mehul's record against these player's in 2039, as I was curious how close he'd come to playing like a member of the elite the past 12 months.

2. Prieto(9.64, 85%, 0-2)
3. Elder(9.87, 87%, 2-1)
4. Hogue(9.66, 90%, 0-2)

Hogue depended heavily on his athleticism, and as mentioned it's starting to go quickly now. Elder, by contrast, has fabulous mental strength(4.4) which has allowed him to overcome some minor deficiencies ... so far. It ends with everyone eventually.

5. Goncharenko(9.56, 91%, 0-1)
6. Iglar(10.03, 97%, 0-2)

Iglar is a beast. There's just no two ways about that. He's trained up his skills noticeably in the offseason period. I see double-digit slams coming. The only good news for me is that he's aging faster than Mehul. I don't think that will be enough to close the gap though.

7. Alastra(9.52, 83%, 2-0)

It's always a bit painful to watch this part of a great player's career, when they simply don't have it anymore.

8. Almagro(9.89, 86%, 0-0)
9. Topolski(9.82, 92%, 0-0)

You almost don't have to look up the fact that both of these two have the same manager. They should both be Top 5 at a bare minimum, but they've missed Slams and had other mistakes each of the past two seasons. That kind of margin for error just doesn't exist.

10. Alvarez(9.66, 91%, 0-0)

Alvarez is as good as much of the Top 10, but he never got to the point of being better that you need to reach to really break through much higher.

11. Blanco(9.44, 91%, 0-0)
12. Anil Mehul(9.63, 97%, NA)

Ah, there's my hero! More on how his year looks in a bit.

13. Hammerstein(9.80, 97%, 2-2)

No matter how you slice it, his mental game and near-superhuman strength still appear to be a little more than enough to trump Mehul's world's-best baseline skills.

14-16. Becerril, Gorritepe, Kucerovic ... all well past their prime and not really worth delving into here. Total record of 3-4.

17. Gaskell(9.61, 96%, 3-1)
18. Borrman(9.33, 93%, 0-0)
19. Mockler(9.19, 96%, 1-0)
20. Groeneveldt(9.41, 96%, 0-0)

A few other notables:

39. Marcel Bahana(9.69, 99%)

Best of the younger players, just shy of 22 years old, he's powered by the best mental game(4.7) I've yet seen in a big talent. Skill is still not quite there yet but he could be scary good if handled properly. With #3 marsel as his manager, that's quite likely to happen.

64. Chittoor(8.82, 98%)
98. Girish Girsh(8.79, 99%)

Doing well, but as mentioned there's still work to do. Although the ranking gap is still significant, he is very, very close to becoming Sri Lanka's second-best player.

168(J). Prakash Mooljee(4.00, 68%)

Illustration of just how big the gap is to the youngsters.


Analysis

One thing that jumps out right away is the number of older, in-decline players at the top. Alastra's generation was packed but they are on their way out. By my count I would expect 13 of the current Top 20 will be less of a factor at this time next year than they are right now, with a few expected to basically free-fall now. Anil Mehul doesn't appear to have much to worry about from below either. The 17-20 spots reveal Gaskell as the only possible threat and he's aging a little faster along with being a player who depends more heavily on his outstanding athleticism. He got Mehul once last year and it may happen again but in the long-term, not a concern.

Benda and Iglar are the top two, period, with Elder/Almagro/Topolski the next tier. Elder and Almagro are going to be fading steadily though and Topolski has been misused. Hammerstein will probably push ahead of Mehul a bit this year, but really it's only the top two that should be able to consistently beat him. He should be competitive with the Austrian and everyone else as he continues to slowly improve and the rest of existing power structure, at varying rates, crumbles around him. Really Anil is set to benefit just as much from a weak era in the game as from the work that has been put in.

I think by the end of the year Bahana will make some real noise but he's got a lot of ground to make up in the rankings before he can be a consistent threat and he's going to have to start contending with his longevity issues soon(101%). It will be interesting to see in the next couple of years to see if any of the players who are roughly Girsh's contemporaries manage to distinguish themselves. Overall it seems so far that there are a lot of them capable of being good, but how many have a chance to be excellent or great, it's a bit too early to tell at right now.

So at the low end I put Mehul as Top 8 by year's end, but I can see him reaching as high as 4th. Still pretty heady territory regardless. If I had to guess right now I'd say at his career apex he can hit #2 in the world at some point when Benda starts to plummet in a few years, which is rather remarkable -- but I don't think he'll surpass Iglar at any juncture. This is of course an educated guesstimate and I can't state that will happen with any certainty, just my best call from here. He's got probably two years or a little more until he hits peak, with marginal improvements in that timeframe. I'll need to continue to make small adjustments and learn the nuances of managing a player at the very top -- every year there have been new wrinkles. After the Paris doubles run jacked up his doubles ranking, he'll be representing Sri Lanka in that category in the WTC.

Looking at the Head-2-Heads mentioned above, he was just 2-8 against the Top 5, both wins coming against Elder. That accounts for almost half of his losses this season. Against the next five(6-10), the combined mark was only 2-2 -- it's rather remarkable that he didn't play Almagro, Topolski, or Alvarez even once in '39, and has never met David Almagro in his entire career! The #11-20 combined total is 9-7, and by elimination then his record against opponents who are now 21 or lower in the rankings was a sparkling 39-3. That last category won't improve a whole lot; he'll still be vulnerable to those kinds of players at least on clay. To really push through this year as he needs to, Mehul will have to more consistently go deep in the Slams and Masters, which will involve beating players in the Top 20 category more often than the 13-17(43%) composite he put together this year. I'd like to see that up to something more like at least two wins for each loss in 2040.

I'll also be closely watching the Girsh/Chittoor developments. I would hazard a guess at this point that sometime between end of group play in the spring, and the knockout rounds in the fall, Girsh will surpass Chittoor and become the second representative for Sri Lanka in the World Team Cup. A lot could happen there either way though and it's far from certain the switch will happen this year. The sooner the better, as far as I'm concerned.

Next up is the WTC tie against Romania, currently underway, with the Australian Open to follow three weeks later.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Level 2 Group 3 First Round
Sri Lanka vs. Romania(Indoor)

Monday: A. Mehul d. H. Prunea, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Tuesday: O. Funar d. A. Chittoor, 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
Wednesday: O.Kammerer/B. Miklos d. A.Mehul/A. Chittoor, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 13-11
Thursday: A. Mehul d. O. Funar, 6-2, 3-6, 6-0, 6-1
Friday: A. Chittoor d. H. Prunea, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats Romania 3-2!

There was a lot more drama here than expected, or for that matter more than I desired as well. After a triple-bagel start by Mehul, Chittoor showed up out of match shape as expected and got himself upset. Then in the doubles, I thought it was over when we were up two sets to none and came back to find us serving for the match at 8-7 in the fifth! After saving three break points and also blowing two match points, we were broken only to break again and serve for it at 9-8. This repeated at 10-9, and 11-10, until finally the Romanians held and took the match in an absurd comeback. When you have four chances to serve for it and can't get it done, you bloody well deserve to lose. How utterly ridiculous, an absolutely absurd loss.

Down 2-1 at that point, it was an open question whether we would even win the tie. Other than the second set Mehul was strong again in his second singles match, and by Friday Chittoor was back to a decent level of play and got a solid win in the decider to put us through. Funar is better than we thought -- Romania might well be good enough to stick in Level 2 now, but frankly we should not have lost either of the rubbers that we did. Chittoor probably still wins if he's ready to play, and the doubles loss is just really beyond words. It probably should have been a 5-0 skunking, but at least we got the victory in the tie which is the most important thing in the final analysis.

Sri Lanka is now bumped up a couple of spots to 41st, tying our high from last year at the end of group competition. Israel also went the distance in edging the Slovak Republic 3-2, and we'll get them next, again on an indoor court. That at least is a nice bit of fortune. The winner of that tie will be assured a place in the quarterfinals no matter what happens in the third round.

Three weeks now until the Australian Open. Mehul has enough matches in that he'll skip the 250s in those weeks; that'll result in the loss of 105 points as he made the Brisbane final last year, but it's the best way to set himself up for a deep run in Australia and that's far more important. Girsh will be heading to a loaded tier-1 challenger in Sao Paolo: there are two tier-1s as the only challengers prior to the AO and he needs to get a few matches in. They have almost as strong a field as the 250s: this time of year is crazy with almost everyone scrambling to get in the right amount of tournament play. He won't be in the seeds so he'll have to hope for a decent draw.

At any rate, Girsh's AO debut will be on the cards and Mehul will be looking to improve on last year's career-best 4th-round finish, while Mooljee will be taking an extended break here to train and let things settle out in the junior ranks.

[Tellistto]

I currently have the #1 junior in the world 11.

Not that he's a superstar but he's been trained well.

I bought VIP and spent one on world 4. Then got a 36yo player after reading your posts and he turned into a 4.7 trainer. Must admit I don't understand the formula for figuring out what a player will be as a trainer.

Anyways, thanks for letting us know about this game.

Tell

[Brian Swartz]

Sounds like you are doing very well!

As far as the trainer formula goes, on the 'Use Experience' screen, look at your skill, service, and doubles abilities. For example, for me Manohar currently has 108 skill, 77 service, 74 doubles.

The formula is 100% of skill, 75% of service, 33% of doubles, then divide that total by 2.3. So in this example:

** Skill: (108 x 1.00) = 108
** Service: (77 x .75) = 57.75
** Doubles: (74 x .33) = 24.42
** Total: (190.17 / 2.3) = 82.683 ...

That's the 'raw' total, to convert it to 'tennis balls', i.e. the 5-point scale, divide by 20. That gives 4.134, so I'd expect him to be a 4.1 if I converted to him to a trainer without any more work.

Hope that helps, but otherwhise glad you found the game enjoyable in any event.

Edit: I should add though that a 4.7 is pretty darn good, and should let you come quite close to maxing out your players. The difference is not likely to be all that important between 4.7 and 5.0.

[Brian Swartz]

January

As mentioned before the only tournament was Girsh playing in the Sao Paolo Tier-1 challenger. It was really quite the fitting microcosm of the current stage in his career: he beat 4th-seeded Ivo Montalvo(ARG, 56th), a clay-court specialist, in a tough first-round match 6-4, 7-6(9). American Tommy Day(87th), beat him easily in the next match 3 & 3 however. These are exactly the kinds of players he'll need to get past to take the next step.

A couple of observations are worth noting heading into the AO, which has now begun. Gabriel Alastra and Spasoje Kucerovic have now removed themselves from singles altogether, which will lead to more opportunities for the younger players. It seems their manager is headed towards making Alastra a trainer as soon as possible, or else he just wants a good veteran doubles team. The former is more likely, he has a 4.5 and a 4.9 but Alastra could be made a 5.0 easily. Regardless of the why, Alastra has now essentially resigned any impact on the singles scene.

Also, Amrik Chittoor has now not played any events aside from the WTC in several months. He's in free-fall, and is probably going to be basically useless in the next round for Sri Lanka. This will cause quite a problem as losing to Israel is actually quite likely since he's almost certainly not going to fall far enough for Girsh to take his place until later. His manager, having never discovered what practice tournaments are for, appears to have abandoned the game and my task is going to be more difficult for it. This is a great time to perhaps trumpet the 'Holiday Mode' option which allows for players to enter tournaments as if they weren't human-managed if the manager wants to leave the game, even temporarily. I suspect a lot of managers aren't aware of the option, esp. new ones(I don't even know where it is, but it's in the documentation somewhere).

At any rate, the AO is next on the docket. Mehul is defending a 4th-round result while Girsh makes his debut.

[Brian Swartz]

2040 Australian Open

Doubles was interesting: Mehul had to qualify and did so, then lost in the first round; Girsh had a better partner and actually made it to the second round. It was rather humorous to see him matched up in singles against world no. 1 Bjorn Benda to open things up: it started ok but got worse with a bagel to finish off a very predicatable straight-sets defeat. Three straight losses in Slams to start his career and probably a fourth to complete the cycle at the French, but Mehul lost 3 of his first 5 first-rounder so this really doesn't mean anything yet.

As for Anil Mehul, he cruised through the first three rounds, allowing no more than five games in any of them. Then the time came to face the music against Perry Hogue in the fourth round. Hogue had soundly beaten him in both of their previous matches, both coming last year during the best period of his career. He was now on the decline and had overplayed just a hair .... and that probably ended up being the difference as otherwhise he would still be slightly favored on hardcourt. After taking a pair of tiebreaks, Mehul played a miserable third set, lost a tiebreak in the fourth, and barely edge out the win 7-6(2), 7-6(7), 1-6, 6-7(3), 7-5. He was actually outpointed 182-179 but that was mostly due to the middle set. Just a little better on the most important points, this was a match that could have gone either way and was as much as anything a victory for being set up properly.

Pierce Gaskell was knocked out in the third round, Hammerstein overplayed as well and was eliminated in the fourth by Evgeni Topolski. The Russian no. 2 would be Mehul's foil in the quarterfinals. The head-to-head wasn't any better in this matchup, 0-3 lifetime, but they hadn't met at all last year. Two were in Slams, one in a Masters, so all on big stages. This time I thought Mehul had a small edge. He started well, but Topolski fought back. After breaking to serve out the match 5-4 in the third, it looked like it was over. He was broken back, and it went to a tiebreak. Mehul went down a minibreak twice early, but fought back himself, and Topolski cracked at 7-all. A double fault handed Mehul his fourth match point, and he took it for a 6-2, 6-4, 7-6(7) win that was more dramatic at the end than it should have been.

In the semis, it was ... guess who? That's right, the force of nature himself, Antonin Iglar. He hadn't lost a set yet, and served up a shocking breadstick to start. Mehul played better after that, but couldn't take advantage of his chances. He dropped nine of 10 break points for the match, and was done in straights 6-1, 6-4, 7-5. It was as tough as any match Iglar would have, as he downed Benda in the final who had survived five-set thrillers over Almagro(8-6 in the fifth!) and Elder(lost the first two sets in tiebreaks before rallying) to get there himself.

Iglar moved up to third, a hair behind Elder and added a second Slam trophy to his case. He simply has no peer on hardcourts right now. If he plays well, he's going to win and that's the end of it. In making the final, Benda -- who had never gone past the quarters at this, his weakest Slam -- extended his lead over the field to an astonishing 4,000 points. It's a gap that is nearly of Gorritepe proportions, and Iglar's chase has begun in earnest. The question is, can the Czech prodigy do enough on clay to significantly narrow the gap?

Mehul is now up to a new career high at 11th, and only 120 points out of 10th. Attention turns back now to the World Team Cup. The second round of group play is now under way, with Chittoor in worse shape to compete than ever ... Getting the two wins over Hogue and Topolski was huge though. Aside from not beating either one before, it's a second straight Slam semifinal, and those are exactly the kinds of matches he needs to win to have a successful year. It was the kind of quality that could see him reach the Top 5 if he can sustain it.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Level 2 Group 3 Second Round
Sri Lanka(1-0) vs. Israel(1-0), Indoor

Monday: A. Mehul d. A. Kuttab, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Tuesday: U. Naybet d. A. Chittoor, 6-3, 7-6(12), 7-5
Wednesday: A. Mehul/A. Chittoor d. A. Kuttab/U. Naybet, 6-3, 6-1, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. U. Naybet, 6-0, 6-1, 6-3
Friday: A. Chittoor d. A. Kuttab, 6-1, 6-1, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats Israel, 4-1!

Well, this tie was quite surprising. Playing indoors was an advantadge but not a huge one against the Israelis. Chittoor losing his first singles match was unsurprising, but he did well to put up a good fight being so out of match shape. When the doubles went our way easily for the 2-1 lead, it was pretty much over because there's no way Mehul was going to lose to anyone Israel has, and Chittoor rebounded by the end of the week for a nice win. Israel really only has one player good enough to play at Level 2 competition, and that did them in.

Romania edged the Slovak Republic 3-2, and we now have nothing to worry about. We are in the quarterfinals and will also finish atop the group no matter what happens. The winner of the Romania-Israel tie could equal us if we somehow lose to the Slovakians, but even in that case we'd own the tiebreaker against either.

Sri Lanka is now up to 35th, easily our best placing to date. It's a big load off my mind to have qualified for the knockout stages. Even if Chittoor hasn't slid far enough to let Girsh in the competition by the last group match, he will assuredly have done so(barring some super-bizarre turn of events) by the fall, and the Mehul/Girsh tandem that will take us through the next several years will finally be formed.

In the meantime, Prakash Mooljee easily rammed his way through a surprisingly weak field to get double titles in his latest Tier-4 event. He's up to 150th now in juniors. I'm in no hurry to move him up to Tier-3's, because he's been getting drilled in practice events lately. He seems to be in that rare 'sweet spot', getting a lot of matches in during tournament weeks, and able to then take a month or even more off for beneficial practice sessions against more advanced players. I'm going to ride that train as long as I can.

Girsh will be heading to a tier-2 challenger in Bergamo in a couple of weeks, it'll be a strong field there most likely but he's set to lose more points than he gains the next few months anyway. Right now that's pretty irrelevant for him; he'll start moving up when he's good enough to beat the better challenger players(33-100 approx. in the rankings) more consistently, and until then it can't be rushed; there's little point in doing anything but maximizing his training. It'll come when it comes. Mehul has about a month off, and will probably play in the Dubai 500 before the Masters in Indian Wells and Miami finish off the first quarter of the year. Overall, it's a pretty dry period coming up the next few weeks in terms of action on the court.

[britrock88]

Aside: I dropped Delacave and picked up a 30yo Peruvian who was ~75th in singles and ~50th in doubles. I enjoy that he's still a choice for WTC matches, so I figured I'll retire him when he slips out of the selection for that. 2 years later, he's ~125th and ~50th, with a trainer potential slightly better than 4.6, and is still a WTC participant, so I'm enjoying his twilight years.

What I'm wondering is this--once I have a trainer in the fold, how does that trainer work in conjuction with practice sessions? I know practice sessions lead to manager points which help to hire players, so that's one advantage there. But trainers yield more consistent results in development, as far as I'm aware. Are trainers the way to maximize practice after getting bounced out of tourneys early? Or are they worth more than that?

[Brian Swartz]

Trainers can be used for that, but the main reason you want them is to replace the use of friendly matches. For a player of even moderately high endurance, tournaments/practice won't use up all your fatigue. Trainers are much better than friendly matches for what's left over.

[britrock88]

Trainers can be used for that, but the main reason you want them is to replace the use of friendly matches. For a player of even moderately high endurance, tournaments/practice won't use up all your fatigue. Trainers are much better than friendly matches for what's left over.

Makes sense. It'd be great if trainers did their stuff automatically. :) That's what I get for playing in 4hr/wk worlds.

[Brian Swartz]

Yeah, I think my stay in rr2 will be short. I've got a trainer candidate who is closing in on 4.9 and I want to see him through, but I might not stick with it after that. It's easy enough to make mistakes as it is. Case in point, work can get crazy for me sometimes and I basically back to full time now(good), but I forgot to sign up three of my players for practice tournaments -- I was sure I had, but obviously wrong and it cost somewhere around 200 or so xp points each. With a fast world, mistakes like that multiply.

Anyway ...

February/March

Girish Girsh had a solid run at the Bergamo challenger(tier 2) in late February. After flattening his first three foes, he lost to eventually champion Nils Mednick(SWE, 55th) 3 & 2, but was on the winning doubles team. That was more than enough matches for him to get through this period.

Anil Mehul played Rotterdam last year but this year skipped it and waited until Dubai. Both are 500-level events. He was not looking good at all in practice during the interim, so I was hoping for a better performance. He was set to meet Prieto in the semifinals but the Spaniard was shockingly beaten in three tough sets by another Swede, Olev Birkeland. Birkeland had nearly beaten Mehul at the end of last year at Shanghai -- it went to a third-set tiebreak, another case of a match being closer than it should. Birkeland managed just two games this time, setting up a final against Topolski who was looking for revenge after his only loss to Mehul, in the Australian quarters.

The Russian had the better of the match most of the way, but time and time again Anil denied him on break chances: 13 of 14 saved for the match. The Dubai title came down to a final-set tiebreak, a more crucial result than one would expect for a 500 event between these two. The way the rankings are looking, Mehul will probably have to surpass Topolski to reach the World Tour Finals, his #1 goal for the year. Another win would help greatly, the winner gets 500 points here and the loser 300, a 400-point swing. Topolski got an early minibreak, but Mehul rang off four straight points to lead 5-2. A little later, a match point on his own serve ... but he blew it and lost the match in a heartbreaker 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(6). Topolski was the better player on the day, more consistent, and he deserved to win -- but when you blow a match point and lose six of the last seven points, that's a tough pill to swallow. It was the only quality opponent he had all week, so it's tough to say for sure where Mehul's at right now.

At least decent form though heading into Indian Wells and Miami. He's defending 4th-round placings at each last year. He would definitely expect to at least equal those, and will need to push to at least one quarterfinal appearance in order to make this swing a success. Girsh will be there as well for his first Masters action, and during the same time period Mooljee will be getting back out there for another juniors event.

In terms of the Chittoor/Girsh watch, Amrik is down to 81st but Girish is sliding as well, currently at 109th.

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells Masters

The defining point of the tournament, at least for me, was this:

Anil Mehul(SRI) d. Bjorn Benda(DEU), 6-2, 6-2

No, that is not a misprint. It's one heck of a shocking result though. Benda had won both previous meetings, the most recent coming at this event last year in three sets. As a clay specialist, beating him on hardcourt is not out of the question. Blowing the head-and-shoulders world no. 1 off the court in this manner though, is something else again entirely.

I took a look through the German's tournament history to see when the last time was that he was beaten like this. It took a while, because it's been a pretty long time. The most recent one that was close was the Rome final nearly two years ago, where he lost 6-0, 6-4 to Almagro. It's definitely not something that happens often.

This match happened in the quarterfinals, with Mehul dispatching Pietro nearly as easily in the fourth round prior. A fine run ended once again with Iglar in the semis, 7-6(3), 6-4. Almagro was beaten by the Czech by a nearly identical count in the final, so once again Mehul played him as tough as anyone -- and lost. It's starting to remind me of the Federer-Roddick 'rivalry', which Roddick half-jokingly insisted really wasn't one because he'd need to win a match once in a while to be considered a true rival. You can make a good argument that Anil Mehul is the closest thing Antonin Iglar has to a foil on hardcourt, but that doesn't mean he has much of a chance at beating him.

At any rate, a fabulous tournament nonetheless and just as he turns 24, Mehul enters to Top 10 for the first time. Only one spot up but psychologically a big boost to be on the 'first page'. Everyone else in that group has at least a Masters title. Four have won the WTF, six have a Slam to their name. It's elite company.

As for Girsh, he got his first Masters win against a similarly-ranked player before losing competitively, 4 & 4 to Gorritepe in the second round. Nothing to be ashamed of there, a solid debut here for him. Mooljee rolled through another tier-4 junior, and went back for another several weeks on the practice courts.

[Brian Swartz]

Miami Masters

A repeat fourth-round matchup with David Prieto was the first challenge, and this one was much closer but Mehul prevailed in three sets. The quarterfinals brought Iglar a round earlier than their last few meetings; he had just outlasted Gaskell in a third-set tiebreak, a surprisingly competitive match. It was clear early on that he'd hit a patch of poor form or was bored or whatever but not his usual dominant self. The match went back and forth but Anil prevailed, his first win on the pro tour against Antonin in five tries, all within the last several months. 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 was the rather unusual scoreline.

This presented an opportunity, a real shot at a Masters title with the presumptive favorite out of the way. Joining him in the semis were the rest of the top four seeds, and Mick Elder was next up. Mehul had won two of the last three after dropping his first three encounters with the veteran American. He was now the better player both technically and athletically, but Elder still has that fantastic mental game which essentially made up most if not all of the difference, and was the reason he hasn't faded as quickly as others of his generation. It was a clear letdown match as Mehul was fed a breadstick in the opening set. He fought back hard in the second, playing as he needed to from the start, and perhaps if he had things might have been different. As it was, Elder took the match 6-1, 7-6(6) after a tight tiebreak. Hogue would go on to beat him in the final for just his second Masters crown.

A disappointing loss, but three semifinals in the big events of the first hardcourt swing is better than Mehul could have hoped for. The year is off to a fine start.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Update

1. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 25) -- 12,130

Benda maintains a big lead at the top, and with Alastra out of the picture he is pretty much unchallenged on clay.

2. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 23) -- 8,960

Despite the early loss in Miami, there can be no doubt now that the chase is on. Benda's supremacy on the dirt notwithstanding, Iglar(like Mehul) has very few points to defend and his lack of proficiency shouldn't stop him from picking up a bit more ground -- but probably not too much in the grand scheme of things.

3. Mick Elder(USA, 28) -- 7,415

Sans Alastra, Elder might well be the top clay challenger in the sport.

4. Perry Hogue(USA, 26) -- 7,110

The Americans play more the spoiler role than anything else right now, most effective on the hardcourts as they reached up and grabbed the spotlight in Miami. It's far more the exception than the rule though at this stage.

5. Viktor Goncharenko(RUS, 27) -- 6,310

As ever, Goncharenko is steady but unspectacular.

6. David Prieto(ESP, 29) -- 6,190

Twin losses to Mehul in the last month knocked him down a notch.

7. David Almagro(ESP, 29) -- 5,960

8. Gabriel Alastra(ARG, 30) -- 5,270

When he fails to defend his Rome title in a month and a half, Alastra will tumble out of the Top 10.

9. Evgeni Topolski(RUS, 26) -- 4,400

10. Anil Mehul(SRI, 24) -- 3,990

Mehul is also on the chase; he will benefit in terms of seeding from surpassing Topolski sooner rather than later. The Russian is a much more accomplished clay-court player than Anil though, and he has an opportunity coming up as he skipped Roland Garros last year ...

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 12th to 10th singles, 104th to 103rd doubles. After starting the year 18-5 last season, Mehul was 21-4 to begin this year. He did not lose a match against anyone outside the Top 10(15-0), and was 6-4 against that elite group, with three wins coming against the Top 5. Overall a brilliant start to the year, and one that has him looking like he'll be challenging for a Top 5 spot himself by the time the World Tour Finals roll around.

The clay season is an opportunity. Not necessarily a big one, but he has only one match win to defend before Roland Garros after a rough go of it last year. Improved seeding well help, and he could pick a couple hundred points or more by just making it to the Round of 16 consistently; one deep run could be a major boon. The more he can accomplish in the next few months, the less pressure will be on him to maintain consistent excellence during the summer and fall.


Girish Girsh -- 98th to 99th singles, 424th to 306th doubles. Girsh is having more and more success against the key 51st-100th rankings bracket, and my sense is he will begin moving up again soon. He had favorable matchups in both of the recent Masters but took advantage and lost in the second round both times credibly. The clay season may delay him a bit, but definitely by the summer I expect Girsh to resume a steady rise.


Prakash Mooljee -- 168th to 150th juniors. He continues to smash opposition in the Tier-4 events and lose badly in most of his practice matches -- too badly right now, actually. Hopefully he'll soon improve enough to find a happy medium, but he's getting plenty of training in which is all I can ask of a youngish junior.


Manager Ranking -- 20th to 18th, 13.5k to 14.2k points. Mehul's consistent excellence is fueling a steady rise.


Chittoor/Girsh Status -- Chittoor is only about 10 spots up in the rankings and less than 100 points. The reversal is almost here.


Coming Up ...

The final WTC group match is now under way, with Chittoor so out of shape by now that a defeat in all three of his matches is very likely, with one win needed for a victory. Thankfully winning doesn't matter all that much in this tie.

Mehul has played a lot of matches and will welcome getting three weeks out of four off after that, the exception being his debut at the Monte Carlo Masters in a couple of weeks. After that, the clay season picks up steam with Madrid, Rome, and then the Summer Slams.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Level 2 Group 3 Third Round
Sri Lanka vs. Slovak Republic

Monday: C. Dziadosz d. A. Chittoor, 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. E. Tomasak, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0
Wednesday: M. Brodsky/E. Tomasak d. A. Mehul/A. Chittoor, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. C. Dziadosz, 6-2, 6-1, 6-4
Friday: E. Tomasak d. A. Chittoor, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4

Slovak Republic defeats Sri Lanka, 3-2!

This was expected if disappointing. Chittoor was a noose around our neck, having declined now to the point of near-uselessness. Sri Lanka drops a couple of spots to 38th with the defeat. Ironically, by failing to defend any of his points Chittoor dropped out of the Top 100 and wouldn't be a singles representative now, sliding just below Girsh in the rankings. Doubles is another story, but we're at least mostly rid of him.

We still win the group on head-to-head tiebreaker with Romania, who defeated Israel 3-2. In a few months, we'll have the vital quarterfinal matchup against New Caledonia. They are the highest-ranked nation in Level 2 at 11th in the world, but a shadow of their former selves. Their best player, Biju Ruchika, was once nearly a Top-20 guy but at nearly 33 is now out of the Top 50. In his heyday, they spent four years in Level 1 from 2034-2037, never getting out of group play, and after being relegated to Level 2 they've lost playoff ties attempting to get back up the last couple of seasons. Assuming we are properly prepared, we should be able to beat them pretty easily, and knock them out of the playoff with the goal of doing better in that spot ourselves.

A week off now for everyone, and then Monte Carlo starts the clay swing.

[britrock88]

Speaking of WTC doubles, have you ever noticed a nation send someone that's not in the Top 2 of its doubles rankings to WTC matchups? That's happening to a couple of my guys currently, and I'm trying to figure out what the rationale might be.

[Brian Swartz]

No, but participation is not mandatory. If the manager of the top players opts out on the tournament scheduling, then they won't go.

[britrock88]

Yeah, I've checked that. What I'm thinking is that there's an executive decision made somewhere in the machinery that might limit a player to just singles if he has a certain fatigue level. Or maybe the time at which the doubles pairing is set is far enough in advance that the rankings might have changed. Whatever it is, it's annoying to be #1 in your nation at doubles and not get to play.

[Brian Swartz]

Fatigue could be it, I've never gone into it very high on that. Otherwhise I don't know :(.

[Brian Swartz]

Monte Carlo Masters

A few of the top players skipped this year, including Benda, the defending champion, and Mick Elder. As a result, Anil Mehul was the fifth seed and had a first-round bye. After an easy win over Birkeland 1 & 1, he had the misfortune to run into the Czech no. 2, Cestmir Marcek. Marcek is 26 and a bit of a late-bloomer, pretty much at his peak right now. He's had a few big upsets in the past year(Iglar once and Hammerstein twice off the top of my head), and while he's only 21st he's better than that and almost certainly a Top-10 player on clay.

Both previous meetings were on clay, with Marcek taking both, notably at Barcelona last year. Both went the distance, but this time it didn't take that long. A 6-4, 6-4 defeat here in the third round. He might have had a chance to steal it if he didn't drop all three break points faced, but it wasn't his day. A credible performance, but it's no more than a warmup: Mehul will not gain in the rankings since Monte Carlo is actually listed as a 500 and he's full up on better results.

More important was what happened at the business end. Both Czechs made the semifinals but it was the Spaniards, Almagro and Alvarez(not Prieto) meeting for the title with David Alvarez prevailing. You may recall, but probably don't, that a little over a year ago in this space I said that Alvarez was a guy who could make some real noise on clay. I thought the window had closed on that, he hung around as the #10 for about a year and was just displaced. Well, now he's back with his first Masters title, bumping Mehul down to 11th and off the front page.

In the last several years that I've been tracking it, this is the most points the 10th-ranked player has had(4325). I've never seen it over 4k before, it's usually in the mid-low 3000s. At 3990, Mehul is more the 700 points clear of the rest of the field and has achieved more than anybody I've ever seen get pushed out. It also complicates his road to the WTF considerably. He'll get back in the Top 10 soon as Alastra plummets, but now he needs to surpass Alvarez and Topolski instead of just the Russian -- or a different combo of two players -- to reach the final 8.

Next up, Mehul takes a couple weeks off before Madrid & Rome, where he won a combined one match last year. Everybody else is in action next week somewhere.

[Brian Swartz]

May

Girish Girsh headed off to Leon for a tier-2 challenger, and all of the seeds made it through the first couple of matches making for some stiff competition at the end. He defeated George Craighead(70th) for the second time in as many meetings, but was easily cut down 6-2, 6-2 by American Eddy Parsons(56th), the best hardcourt player in the draw, in the semifinals. Another solid if unspectacular effort.

Prakash Mooljee ran through to another tier-4 singles title, though he lost in the first round of the doubles. He continues to comfortably hover around 150th in the junior rankings.

[Brian Swartz]

Madrid Masters

Anil Mehul had a scare right away, as he was pushed to three sets in the opening round by journeyman qualifier Pavel Bestemianov(RUS, 58th). Bestiamianov is better than his ranking would indicate, but Mehul controlled the final set 6-2 to avoid losing in the first round for the second year in a row here. He lost just a game against another qualifier, then met with David Almagro, the first-ever meeting between the two. Almagro is one of the best clay players in the world despite being 29, and after a close first set he took the expected 7-5, 6-2 win. The Spaniard went on to reach the final, where he played Benda as well as anyone these days can on clay.

Making the round of 16 on clay is a solid result, so there's nothing to be worried about here. As a side note, Julian Hammerstein, who hasn't done much this year, made his way to the semifinal. I've been very surprised that he's seemed to sort of fall by the wayside: it's partly due to struggling against the best nations in the top level of the WTC, but this might rejuvenate his season.


Rome Masters

Another testy first-rounder brought Mehul a matchup with Perry Mockler(USA, 24th). They've played only twice: a hardcourt match won by Mehul last year, while Mockler handled him easily in their clay meeting but that was six years ago in juniors. Much has changed since then, but the American is good enough to be a threat on this surface. That wasn't an idle concern; he made the most of his chances, pushing through to a first-set tiebreak before Anil took the match 7-6(4), 6-3. Former world no. 4 Fabian Graff was next, fairly easily dispatched as he's now well into his 30s. Mick Elder loomed in the third round, and he laid the smack down 3 & 1. Ah well -- like in Madrid, he couldn't really expect to beat a player of that caliber on clay, and he did make the third round again.

With Alastra not defending his title here last year(the one clay win he had over Benda), he plummets past Mehul and out of the Top 10, allowing Mehul back in. Another big tournament for Alvarez who made the final, with Benda the expected champion to snag his 6th Masters Shield, tops among active players(Elder has 5, Alastra had 8) and maintain his lead over Iglar. Alvarez is becoming a major threat to make the tour finals though, and Mehul needs to keep adding to his total. It was a decent couple of weeks, getting through the tough first-rounders made it a success for him. On to Roland Garros!


Meanwhile, Girish Girsh was in Fergana for a final tier-2 challenger before he goes to France as well. He absolutely flattened all in his path, failing to lose more than two games in any set! There were quality players there, but none of them well-prepared at all going in. Not much competition, but his third challenger title assures him of staying in the Top 100 after a runner-up finish drops off next week -- in the meantime, he's temporarily up to a career-high of 84th.

[Brian Swartz]

2040 French Open

On tap this year, Bjorn Benda is the presumed runaway favorite as two-time defending champion with no real competition. Anil Mehul is looking to improve on a third-round finish last year; a fourth-round result would give him a perfect set of round of 16 finishes at all of the big clay events which would be solid. Meanwhile, Girish Girsh completes his set of debuts at the Slams, still looking for his first win.

Girsh went up against one of the top unseeded players in the tournament, Argentinian veteran Fabian Graff, former world no. 4. He won the first set but couldn't sustain it and lost 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3. It was his first set won in Slam competition, but really he needed a better draw to have a realistic chance of winning. Fabian may be in his 30s but clay is his best surface, and it's too much of an ask with all that experience on his side as well.

As for Mehul, he was the 10th seed as expected. A qualifier went down, then a second-rounder against Ruben Vega was testy briefly before he came through in straights, bringing up Frenchman Roman Iraugui who upset 24th-seeded Jean-Luc Veniard of Morocco in his previous match. Iraugui had lost both career meetings with Mehul but both were one-sided hardcourt affairs. Even so, the result was shocking -- a triple bagel! Anil absolutely crushed him, allowing just 14 points, four against his serve. Never would I have expected such a performance on clay.

In the fourth round, it was Antonin Iglar waiting. Why not. For the fourth time in as many Slams they meet, the first coming at last year's Wimbledon. This is actually a fortuitious matchup, as Iglar is a bit less skilled even than Mehul on the dirt and most of the higher seeds would be more difficult on the surface. Still, the Czech was still favored and would be looking for revenge after dropping their last meeting in Miami. The winner would reach the second week at Roland Garros for the first time, and take another step towards chasing down their rivals. Mehul's serve was not working of him and he ate a quick breadstick to start the match. It wasn't looking good, but he turned it around quickly. The back-and-forth battle turned into an epic, that wasn't decided until the end ... but he pulled through for a second straight win over Iglar after five straight defeats, 1-6, 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 7-5! The fifth set really was the match after the previous four were relatively one-sided. Anil had just five aces against twice as many double faults, and total points were extremely close(144-142), but he did just enough at the end to eke out the win.

On to uncharted territory, the French Open quarters! Mick Elder was there, hoping to repeat his dominant win in Rome two weeks ago. That didn't quite happen but he was unquestionably the better player and eventually swatted Mehul aside, 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-4. A credible, competitive effort.

David Alvarez went on to beat Elder in a five-set comeback semi, but nobody was going to touch Benda here. He didn't lose a game the first two rounds, lost one in the third, and didn't come close to dropping a set en route to his third straight French crown. On clay, he is truly untouchable in this era, the only top clay specialist in his prime at the moment after Alastra's generation was full of them. But those players don't have the spring in their step to challenge him. Perry Hogue was the big loser, dropping from third to fifth after a quarterfinal loss.


Coming Up

After getting in more matches than expected here, Mehul will not be playing a grass-court tuneup for Wimbledon. Girsh has played enough to bridge that gap also, and having won another singles/doubles pair of tier-4 titles the week before the French, Mooljee will be taking a few weeks to train as well. It's going to be a quiet month heading into the most prestigious and oldest of the Slams.

A bit of a preview of coming attractions: at the end of the year I'll do a feature on Girsh's chances for his career; I still like him to do a touch better than Mehul when all is said and done. I've nicknamed the players around his age group Generation Flash, as there are quite a few of them -- 17 in the Top 100 are 21-22 years old -- but most are quite athletic while lacking the dedication to really become top performers. As a result it's hard for me to imagine Girsh not eventually becoming at least 2nd or 3rd in the world at some point. More detail on that at the end of the year.

Also, after Wimbledon I'm going to start a regular feature for the rest of the year, the Race to the World Tour Finals. The real-world event is held in London and I've done a breakdown that has proved reasonably popular on a tennis forum I frequent about the competition for the 8 spots in the elite invitational that ends the year. In this game, it changes every year: Knoxville two years ago, Aachen(Germany) last year, I don't know where it's going to be this year but it should be interesting. With Alvarez's recent emergence the competition is really heating up: unlike the past couple seasons none of the top players have skipped any Slams. I find myself very thankful that Alastra didn't try to prolong his singles career any more.

You might wonder why this matters. What's the big deal if Mehul finishes 9th or 10th, he's still pretty young and will have plenty of chances. There are a few reasons it matters a lot whether he gets in. One, it's indoors which means he would have a great chance for a good result if he gets there. Winning it outright would not be out of the question. It's in the off-season which means along with the WTC it's an opportunity to get top-quality matches that time of year which helps alleviate the pressure on the tail end of the year in terms of getting enough court time to continue improving heading into the next season. Additionally, it's a 'bonus' event that is added in the rankings to the normal 'best 18' tournaments: any points earned there are simply added on, they don't have to compete with other results to 'replace' another one in the ranking system. So getting in is a big deal for Anil Mehul and remains his top goal for the year. We could well have a dramatic finish coming up.

Wimbledon itself is the next item on the calendar, starting in about two weeks now. In the meantime, I've got my first trainer up and running on rr2. I got him to about 4.96, I wanted to check if they round up and they do, he's a 5.0. For the record, it seems the minimum required for that is 122 skill, 98 service, 98 doubles. I won't be able to use him yet, my other player is currently 16 and I'm looking for a new junior player to add just for fun but it will be probably a couple of years until he's needed and I'm able to regularly try out the effectiveness. All kinds of time for that though, I should be well versed in using him long before my rr1 Sri Lankans have Manohar retire as their first trainer.

[Brian Swartz]

Should be some good stuff coming up. I have, in theory, Wed. and Thursday off. That'll be Wimbledon and the Race there. I also just acquired a junior in rr2 that is somewhat better than the one I already have -- he's a castoff from one of the VIPs in that world, so I don't expect to set the world on fire with him but he would be able to make Top 20 I think in rr1. We'll see how well I do with him.

Anyway, this makes the other one who is now 16 expendable, or at least less important. With that in mind, I'm finally going to do some tests on how effective using a max(5.0) trainer is, and I'll post a synopsis here. I'm kind of curious to see how it turns out.

[Brian Swartz]

Trainers Test

Things turned out a little differently than I expected. First off, I used matches from practice tournaments as a baseline(competitive ones). That's the 'default' way to train on weeks off of course. Compared to those:

** Competitive friendly matches(60-40 points split or closer) are 67% as efficient(experience gained compared to xp)
** Training sessions with a 5.0 trainer are at about 74% -- it varies a little but not much.

Now, at first glance this might not look like much. 74% to 67% is not a huge difference. A little better, but is it worth the effort? A couple other things to note here -- first, training sessions are also more convenient. They give 17-20 xp compared to around 12 for a good friendly match, and don't take as long; just over 2 minutes compared to about 4 for the friendly. That makes a big difference in faster game worlds when you're trying to race to get all the training in sometimes, esp. if there is one trainer trying to handle multiple players ... Training is also more consistent. And the biggest factor of all might be that for a top player, it's impossible to find good partners for friendly matches.

Mehul is happy to have one once in a while where he doesn't blow the opponent off the court better than 6-2, 6-2 ... and that's with me handpicking the best opponents. For weeks like the recent French Open, where he had the one singles QF match and that's it, he might need 15 or more low-yield friendly matches. That's the kind of situation where a trainers advantage can be quite significant. Looking for any miniscule edge against other top players, it's definitely worth waiting for a good trainer in my opinion but it definitely is limited in effect.

[Brian Swartz]

2040 Wimbledon

Back for a second round but not needing to qualify this year is Girsh, while Mehul is hoping to exceed last year's third-round exit in an epic against Iglar. With virtually all of the top players spending more effort on grasscourt proficiency, he would be happy with one round further here. The task is made more difficult by the fact that the bigger servers, which he is decidedly not given my strategem of focusing more on baseline play than do most players, do particularly well on the lower bounce of the grass.

In the larger scheme of things, Wimbledon is an open question this year. Viktor Goncharenko has been generally inconsistent since getting his first title last year. He's a contender here but so are many others. Pretty much all of the top seven players in the rankings have a significant chance that I would describe as between 1-in-10 and 1-in-3 for all of them with no overwhelming favorite. My money is on Mick Elder to put together one last big run here, but any of them could be the victor.

Girish Girsh continued his string of bad luck in first-round opponents, drawing #3 David Almagro and winning just four games. He also lost in the first round of doubles qualifying, so it was definitely an unspiring week for him. As for Anil Mehul, he had a routine first-round win, an easy matchup, and then Roman Iraugui, who he had crushed in the French, was next up. Despite three dominating wins in as many matches, I still considered Iraugui more of a threat than those results indicated. Grass would be the worst surface matchup for Mehul. This time the caution proved warranted. The Frenchman took his first set off Mehul to begin, and it was only after a tough four that he advanced 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(2) to reach the third round here for the third time.

Swedish 19th-seed Manfred Borrman looked to be a similar though slightly better opponent. A match Anil should win but could lose. He had to survive tiebreakers in the first two sets, but went on to win in four once again. A pair of testy, competitive wins, but he'd made his goal of the 4th round and everything from here on was a bonus. The shoe was on the other foot against Perry Hogue. Hogue was the favorite, but not an overwhelming one. Another upset as in the French at this stage was possible. After they split the first two sets, the third went to a tiebreak and ended up being the decisive moment. It was close, but the American pulled through and went on to close it out, 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4. Neither played had many chances after a combined 31 aces, but Hogue had more and made more of them, and so ended a decent but unsatisfying run.

The next few rounds would see a number of five-set classics. The fourth round saw defending champ Goncharenko narrowly defeat Marcek, Gaskell stopping a comeback attempt from Prieto, Gorritepe defeating Mexican Hugo Sanchez to reach his first Slam quarterfinal in two years, and Prieto narrowly finishing off Hammerstein. Then in the quarters, Hogue over his younger countryman Gaskell 9-7 in the 5th was the main attraction with the rest of the higher seeds advancing more routinely; Goncharenko was defeated in four by Benda.

The second semifinal featured Iglar and my pick Elder. It went on longer than it should have, with the American rallying from a two-set deficit but ultimately he could not contend with the Czech player's athleticism. The first was a match that will be long remembered, between Benda and Hogue. Benda was the better player but Hogue constantly found ways to stay in it, fighting back time and time again until he was eventually defeated, 12-10 in the final set. Nearly 400 points were required to settle this, bringing up a marquee, historical championship final.

The top two players in the world, Bjorn Benda and Antonin Iglar, clashed on neutral territory -- this being neither's favorite surface -- for the first time with basically everything on the line. The winner would be the probable year-end #1, would win a Slam title for the first time off their favored surface, and would generally enhance their legacy considerably. Benda held a 6-4 lead coming in, with four wins in six matches last year, but had notably been blasted in the AO final earlier in the year. The serve was king, especially for Benda in this matchup. There was only one break in a combined 13 attempts, and he survived a pair of breakers for a straight-sets win, 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-6(5). After this it will be virtually impossible for Iglar to catch him in the rankings this year; he'd basically have to run the table the rest of the season. Benda now has four Slams to his name, more than any other active player. The epic against Hogue in the semis is almost certainly set to be the match of the year, both in terms of the match itself and it's importance. Had he lost, it would likely have been Iglar taking the upper hand.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Bjorn Benda(26, DEU) -- 12,580

After completing the 'channel Slam' with his first major title off of the red clay, Benda's place at the top is all but assured until next year.

2. Antonin Iglar(23, CZE) -- 10,350

Iglar's time is coming -- just not yet, it appears.

3. Mick Elder(29, USA) -- 7,195

With three semifinals in as many Slams this year, Elder is the 'best of the rest'.

4. David Almagro(29, ESP) -- 7,070

5. Perry Hogue(26, USA) -- 6,890

So close to his first Wimbledon final ... it was still unquestionably his best moment of the year so far.

6. David Alvarez(27, ESP) -- 5,495

The third of Spain's 'Trio of Davids' took advantage of Alastra's absence to fill the void as the #2 player right now on clay. Better late than never. For him this moment in the sun will last however long it can, probably until he is unseated by next Spanish clay warrior -- Marcel Bahana -- in a couple of years.

7. David Prieto(30, ESP) -- 4,920

8. Viktor Goncharenko(27, RUS) -- 4,820

Looking like a certain one-slam-wonder, Goncharenko sinks back to where he's spent most of his career; on the edge of elite status, but not quite there.

9. Evgeni Topolski(26, RUS) -- 4,760

10. Anil Mehul(24, SRI) -- 4,430

The big news here is really that Benda and Iglar have completely separated themselves from the pack. They are in class by themselves, with everyone else squabbling over the leftovers.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 10th singles(unchanged), 103rd to 100th doubles. Did a little better than expected, adding over 400 points to his total in his weakest part of the year, but he'll definitely need a big finish to accomplish his goals for the season. 14-5 over the clay/grass season, after basically breaking even last year.


Girish Girsh -- 99th to 98th singles, 306th to 324th doubles. Stagnation defined here. After a quick exit from Wimbledon he's back at it with a Tier-1 challenger in Cordoba. My sense is he's close to a breakthrough, but not quite there yet. More favorable draws in the big events would help, as would getting more finals and titles in the challengers instead of the regular semifinal losses. I'm not sure which is going to come first at this point.


Prakash Mooljee -- 150th to 135th singles. Fresh off his latest Tier-4 crown, though with an early doubles loss, Mooljee continues his holding pattern. He still takes quite a few bad practice losses against players at his ranking bracket, so no changes are anticipated right now. He may well stay at this level through the end of the year when another class of 18-year-olds flies the coop; at that point he'll probably be skilled enough to begin considering amateur events as well.


Manager Ranking -- 18th(changed), 14.2k to 14.6k points. As expected less progress than usual with the clay and grass season.


Chittoor Update -- Out of the Top 200 now in singles which is enough to be out of sight, out of mind. Doubles is a different story; he's still Sri Lanka's #2 at 235th, with Girsh at 324th. I'm hoping those spots reverse by the fall when the WTC starts up again, but it probably won't matter all that much.


Coming Up

As mentioned, Girsh is in Cordoba this week and will hit at least one more challenger after that before the USO. Mehul will have a few weeks off before Washington leading into the Cincinatti & Canada Masters, and the others are doing their usual thing.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals

Here are the current standings, post-Wimbledon. I'll update this several more times throughout the year.

In

Bjorn Benda -- 8590
Antonin Iglar -- 6040

A done deal here, Benda and Iglar are the dominant 1-2 punch of the tour and they'll be a force at the tour finals.


Probable

Mick Elder -- 4750
David Alvarez -- 4495
David Almagro -- 4410
Perry Hogue -- 4130

This quartet pretty much just needs to keep showing up. It usually takes about 5k, sometimes a little less, to ensure a spot. These players have enough of a lead on the field that, barring a complete disaster, they will be in also. Anybody with a 1k lead on the 9th spot in listed here.


On the Bubble

Viktor Goncharenko -- 3010
Evgeni Topolski -- 2860
----------------------------------------
Anil Mehul -- 2795


Here's where it gets interesting. There are essentially three players competing for two spots. As you can see, right now Mehul is on the outside looking in, but he hasn't played many small events yet and will likely pick up points in the WTC relative to the others. I like his chances, but the Russians will be in the fight most of if not all of the way. Anil needs to finish strong; with the WTC and the number of matches he's been playing, there probably aren't going to be a lot of 500s and maybe no 250s for him. I'm going to need him to take advantage of being better prepared in the Masters and at the USO to make a big splash, like he did with that initial Slam SF last year.


Long Shots

David Prieto -- 2320
Julian Hammerstein -- 2290
Giorgio Becerril -- 2150
Cestmir Marcek -- 1915

This is the tier of players currently within 1000 points, but greater than 250 away, from making the cut. As can be seen there's another big gap here. Hammerstein is the only one that I think can legitimately crash the party, and as Austria's gotten ... well, hammered ... in the WTC he's going to lose points there so he'll need a very big finish to year to make up for that. It's a chance, but a small one. Prieto is clearly sliding this year and I don't see him making a run, Becerril is one of those hangers-on that's never really been a Top 10 guy, and Marcek is good but not good enough to make up this much ground.

[Brian Swartz]

July/August

The month following Wimbledon is always a slow time of recuperating for the top players after having two slams in a similar time frame in the late spring/early summer period. For Anil Mehul it picked up again a week later than last year, at the Washington 500. The field was very strong for a 500-level event; too strong, as most of them were overplaying and shouldn't really have entered here. After an easy win, he met up with Mikaila Groeneveldt(NLD, 17th) who he hadn't faced since juniors. Both meetings there were losses on clay, but this time he won a competitive straight-sets encounter. Perry Hogue flattened him 6-3, 6-2 in the quarters, a disappointing showing in that match despite Hogue being one of the guys who had a lot more match practice coming in and probably should have skipped this event. Mehul had hoped to get another match or two in here -- he was a semifinalist last year in a weaker field -- and will play doubles next week in Canada to get himself prepared for hopefully making a decent run there and at Cincinatti.

Girish Girsh had a tier-1 challenger in Cordoba, making the semis before losing in a close one to eventual champion Milan Farkas, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4. It was close enough that it really could have gone either way, and I actually would say Girsh is slightly the better player right now. Farkas hovers around 50th and it was exactly the kind of match he needs to start winning more often than not to take the next step in his career. Close, but not quite there on this day.

That was a couple weeks ago, and next week he'll head to Beijing where he was a semi-finalist last year. It's a great week for challengers as the best players are all at the Canada Masters, while there are four events -- two Tier-1, two Tier-2 -- available for those who don't participate. There's a definite opportunity here to potentially snag a title.

Prakash Mooljee still hasn't lost a singles match this year. It was more of the same for him with a Tier-4 title the second week of Wimbledon which I may have already mentioned, and his next tournament will also be during Canada next week.

[Brian Swartz]

Race Standings(mid-August)

There have been some changes, but nothing huge yet. The next few weeks will determine a lot more. Points change in the Race is in parentheses.

In

Bjorn Benda -- 8590(--)
Antonin Iglar -- 6040(--)

No changes here at all. These guys know where the bread is buttered, and it's not at the mickey-mouse events. As one would expect, they are set up well for the upcoming swing.


Probable

Mick Elder -- 5200(+450)
David Alvarez -- 4795(+300)
Perry Hogue -- 4790(+660)
David Almagro -- 4660(+250)

All of these added to their resumes; Elder is all but in at this point.


Contenders

Viktor Goncharenko -- 3100(+90)
Evgeni Topolski -- 3010(+150)
-------------------------------
Anil Mehul -- 2885(+90)

Topolski lost earlier than the other two here and had the room to play an additional event during the interim. As a result, Mehul's deficit to get in has grown some. All three lost at the QF stage in Washington.


Long Shots

David Prieto -- 2650(+330)
Julian Hammerstein -- 2470(+180)
Cestmir Marcek -- 2325(+410)
Giorgio Becerril -- 2150(--)


Most of these have been busy trying to catch up -- too busy, but we can't ignore that the gap has closed for now. Prieto in particular is on Mehul's heels at the moment. Of immediate interest is that Julian Hammerstein is banned from the Canada Masters -- this happens when a player misses a mandatory Masters event. The one they are banned from is their best result the previous year. His task has become even more desperate now. A big win at the German Open(500) a couple weeks ago has forced everyone to take Cestmir Marcek a bit more seriously ...

[Brian Swartz]

Canada Masters

Mehul was impressive in a 6-4, 6-4 win that was not that close against Perry Mockler, one of the most dangerous 'floaters' in the draw. He wasn't as sharp against Veniard in the second round, leading to a second meeting in as many weeks with Hogue. The turning point was with Hogue serving for the first set at 5-3. Mehul got triple break point to start ... and then lost the next five points to drop the set, got broken immediately to start the second, and the rout was on. 6-3, 6-1. It seems so long right now since that five-set epic he won against Hogue back at the Australian Open, which remains his only win in six meetings.

Hogue would go on to reach the final against Iglar, and then win just two games in a miserable letdown once he got there. Topolski and Goncharenko both lost in the third round as well, so nothing changed in terms of the Race. However, Topolski and David Prieto, last year's champion, both lost points since they didn't do as well as last year; Mehul went up a bit having lost in the first round in '39. The end result was that Anil Mehul moved up to a career-high 8th, earning him a better seeding for the time being ...

Cincinatti Masters

After a first-round bye and an easy win over a qualifier, it was time for the first clash in nearly a year with Julian Hammerstein. All of their hardcourt meetings have been close, and this was no exception, but the Austrian once again proved that, when well-prepared, he's just a bit better with a 6-3, 7-6(4) final. After making the semifinals of the first three big harcourt events of the year, back-to-back third-round exits are not expiring. It is clear that Mehul is not on top of his game right now. He's playing ok, but ok is not nearly good enough.

The tournament ended with a very competitive finish. Benda challenged Iglar's hardcourt hegemony in the final, taking a first-set tiebreak and an early lead in the second, but he couldn't finish. 6-7(5), 7-5, 6-3 was the final with Antonin looking better every set.

The stage is now set for the US Open in two weeks. Mehul is still in 8th, meaning he won't have to face any of the best players until the quarterfinals, should he avoid being knocked out sooner. He's defending a semi-final result though, his first big breakthrough having come at this point last year. If he doesn't make another good run, which will require playing better than he has these last few weeks, he will assuredly drop back down again.

[Brian Swartz]

Race Standings(before US Open)


In

Bjorn Benda -- 9550(+960)
Antonin Iglar -- 8040(+2000)

With a pair of Masters Shields doubling his career total to four, Iglar has closed the gap substantially. Benda is still in the driver's seat, but the year-end #1 could still slip away if this continues. Had he held the early lead in Cincinatti, it would be all but over at this point.


Probable

Mick Elder -- 5570(+370)
Perry Hogue -- 5480(+690)
David Almagro -- 5200(+540)
David Alvarez -- 4895(+100)

Alvarez is falling off the pace a bit here as he's not nearly the threat on the hardcourts as he is on clay. When the official cut line is calculated after the USO, it's quite possible Elder and Hogue will be in already. They probably don't need to win another match to qualify.


Contenders

Viktor Goncharenko -- 3370(+270)
Evgeni Topolski -- 3190(+180)
------------------------------------------------------------
David Prieto -- 3190(+540)
Anil Mehul -- 3065(+180)

The plot has changed quite a bit here. Prieto was a semifinalist in Cincinatti for the second year in a row, leapfrogging Mehul and effectively tying himself with Topolski for the last spot in the tour finals. I honestly don't know which of the two would make it in if the season ended today. There are now four competing for two spots, and Mehul is on the bottom of the pile. Failing to make progress these last couple of weeks was quite damaging; he really needs a strong performance at either the USO or Shanghai, maybe both, to get in. 125 points is not at all a huge gap to overcome, but he can't just keep treading water. Anil needs to make something happen for himself here.


Long Shots

Julian Hammerstein -- 2650(+180)
Cestmir Marcek -- 2595(+275)
Giorgio Becerril -- 2320(+170)
Pierce Gaskell -- 2220(new)

Gaskell was a surprise quarterfinalist in Cincinatti, moving him just into the conversation here. Marcek was as well, and continues to inch closer to contention.

[Brian Swartz]

A lot has happened, and with an explosion of RL busyness I didn't get the update done as soon as I wanted to. Missed a few friendly matches that I would have set up also. Se la vi. In any case, the final Slam of the year is over and the final leg of the season has begun.

Before I get to that, a bit of a strategy note. I chose to skip the USO with Girish Girsh and play a small challenger instead. The reason for this is that it's basically not worth it to him to play it when he's almost certainly going to lose in the first or second round. When he was of a low enough ranking to go through qualifying, he would get at least five matches in so it was definitely worthwhile, but not now that he's good enough to make the main draw as a direct acceptance, but not good enough to go anywhere yet. I find I'm still learning small strategic wrinkles. Girsh played in the tier-3 Bangkok event, and with most of the usual suspects opting for the USO he was the top seed. The other solid players who were there almost universally were badly overplayed coming in, and he won the singles title easily. A good opportunity to get a number of matches in, and add another challenger title to his points.

US Open

Things first started to get a bit dicey for Anil Mehul in the third round, against 27th-seeded Peruvian Thiago Herrera, a good young player. After two close sets, he made it through 7-5, 6-4, 6-1, but it was tense. That brought up a match with noted giant-killer Cestmir Marcek, who had beaten him twice in the past couple of years though both matchups were on clay. A competitive match was expected but Mehul is a little better and is the favorite. He mastered an initial tiebreak and moved through to the quarterfinals without the loss of a set, 7-6(2), 6-3, 7-6(4). Normally this would be enough to ensure that he'd move up in the Race, but Topolski, Goncharenko, and Prieto all joined him. Some of the better players paid the price for overplaying, Elder and Hogue particularly who lost early, but they are out of reach and nearly qualified already.

The quarterfinal opponent was Benda. While Mehul had won their only meeting this year resoundingly back in Indian Wells, he wasn't in that same kind of form and the world no. 1 was playing better on hardcourts these days. The match essentially came down to the first-set tiebreak. Mehul was up a mini-break early, but the German rallied. After fighting off several set points and failing in one chance of his own, Mehul lost the breaker 10-8. He fought back to take the third set but was downed in four, 7-6(8), 6-2, 3-6, 6-3. A credible performance, but a round short of his semifinal run last year and not good enough to make up any ground given the good performance of his rivals.

As it was in Australia, Iglar defeated Benda in the final. This time it went four sets. Mastery of all surfaces is shown in the fact that the #1 reached all four Slam finals this year, which combined with his dominance on clay essentially has made up unreachable even for the Czech phenom. Topolski matched his best performance here with a semifinal finish and tight four-set loss to Benda. Antonin Iglar, meanwhile, has won the last three hardcourt Slams and most of the Masters in that timeframe, and with three Slam titles to his name is second among active singles players to Benda's four.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Level 2 Quarterfinals
Sri Lanka vs. New Caledonia -- Hardcourt

Monday: A. Mehul d. B. Ratnasabapathi, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. B. Ruchika, 6-1, 6-4, 6-2
Wednesday: A. Mehul/G. Girsh d. B. Ruchika/X. Houssaye, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. B. Ruchika, 6-2, 6-2, 6-0
Friday: G. Girsh d. B. Ratnasabapathi, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0

Sri Lanka beats New Caledonia, 5-0!

I expected a fairly easy win coming in, but that was before I remembered that the New Caledonia #2 had been prematurely retired as a trainer. As it turned out, they didn't have a remotely adequate replacement, making the result a foregone conclusion in retrospect. What's that, you've never heard of Biju Ratnasabapathi? Well, neither had I. He was a whopping 995th in the rankings, never a whole lot higher than that, a combination of completely sucking and having been abandoned by his manager a la Chittoor. Won a total of seven points -- not games, points -- against Mehul. When he's your second-best, you have problems, and even Ruchika is sinking now at 33 years old. New Caledonia will be lucky if they are a Level 4 nation in a few years at this rate. They are in free-fall, riding the coattails of a past that no longer is relevant at 11th in the world.

So we're into the semis, +5 to 33rd in the rankings, and assured of our first-ever spot in a playoff to reach the elite status of Level 1! Austria is a possible opponent there, but I put that out of my mind for now. Luxembourg, led by Mikaila Groeneveldt, presently 17th in the world, will be our next obstacle in a couple of weeks. Mehul will have an off week to prepare, while Girsh needs some match practice so he's headed to the big Tashkent challenger. It's a Tier '+' event, the 125-point level, sort of the Masters level of the Challenger circuit.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings

** Note: all of the rankings updates are a week 'late' -- they are based on the week after the WTC QF, not the USO as I normally due them. The difference isn't significant though. **

1. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 26) -- 14,080

14,000 is pretty rare territory -- 10-11k was typical under the Alastra regime. Unless he's playing Iglar on hardcourt, it's not wise to bet against Benda right now.

2. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 23) -- 11,060

Iglar's had the best year of his career, but has made up less than half the distance required to overtake the dominant German despite winning two Slams and nearly doubling his total. It may take longer than previously thought for the switch to take place.

3. David Almagro(ESP, 29) -- 7,440

The best of the deposed veterans, Almagro sits comfortably in a very distant third.

4. Mick Elder(USA, 29) -- 6,820

5. Perry Hogue(USA, 26) -- 6,250

6. David Alvarez(ESP, 27) -- 5,325

7. Viktor Goncharenko(RUS, 27) -- 5,020

8. Evgeni Topolski(RUS, 27) -- 4,660

The Russians performed well at the USO, and continue to do just enough to hang around and be relevant.

9. David Prieto(ESP, 30) -- 4,330

Given up for dead earlier in the year, Prieto is enjoying a brief run of good form, but time is not on his side. Life doesn't really begin at 30, at least not in this sport.

10. Anil Mehul(SRI, 24) -- 4,140

Back down to the bottom of the list after a brief stay at 8th, and it could get worse. With the WTC occupying him, it's unlikely he'll be able to defend his best career title to date, the Japan Open which comes up in a few weeks. He could possibly even drop out of the Top 10 at that point.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 10th singles(still unchanged), 100th to 83rd doubles. Overall a disappointing summer hardcourt phase of the year for him, didn't manage to produce any upsets. More on this in the next post, but it's looking like he might well miss out on the World Tour Finals this year, which was his main goal for the year. On the bright side, the WTC is looking good ...


Girish Girsh -- 98th to 63rd singles, 324th to 257th doubles. It looks like his ascent up the ladder in the Top 100 has finally begun. The next goal is for him to crack into the 250 level of competition, which means being in the Top 50 at a minimum. Right now it appears that he is indeed a bit ahead of Mehul's pace, but the next year or two will tell a lot more about that.


Prakash Mooljee -- 135th to 126th juniors. He really can't improve any more in the rankings until he makes the jump to tier-3 events, and practice results continue to show he's not yet ready to do so. I expect more of the same until the end of the year, when it will get interesting all over again as the next batch of players turn pro.


Manager Ranking -- 18th to 19th(*sniff*), 14.6k to 14.4k points(boo). Looks like I've stalled again for the moment, another plateau perhaps?

[Brian Swartz]

Race Standings(after USO, WTC QF)

In

Bjorn Benda -- 10,650
Antonin Iglar -- 10,090
Perry Hogue -- 6250

The gap in the rankings is not yet reflected here in the Race, where Iglar has almost caught Benda. Perhaps my comments about waiting longer to take the top spot are premature. The difference between the two is that last year Benda won both of the remaining Masters events, along with a perfect run at the tour finals last season. Iglar has lost precisely one match in a big hardcourt event this year(Mehul in Miami), so the chance of repeating the Shanghai title appears unlikely. Paris and the WTF are going to be huge for these guys fighting each other for the top spot. Perry Hogue joins the group, a real example of majoring in the minors as he has racked up near-max points in the 'mickey mouse' 500 & 250 events.

Probable

David Almagro -- 5920
Mick Elder -- 5800
David Alvarez -- 5075

I've decided to wait on finalizing the exact 'cut line' until after the WTC semis are finished in a couple of weeks. That will change the picture a bit and is very time-consuming to pin down possibilities for each player. Almagro and Elder probably join the qualified at that point, but Alvarez is going nowhere fast these days and will likely take longer.


Contenders

Evgeni Topolski -- 3910
Viktor Goncharenko -- 3730

The Russians have separated themselves from the pack here. Topolski's semifinal run at the USO dramatically increased his chances, while it's been more of a steady approach for Goncharenko. They are far from safe, but they've opened a notable gap.


Long Shots

Anil Mehul -- 3460
David Prieto -- 3450
Julian Hammerstein -- 2940
Cestmir Marcek -- 2875

Becerril and Gaskell are far enough off the pace that they have dropped out of contention, at least for now. Prieto will probably lose another 100 points off of his WTC count, leaving Mehul at the head of the class here -- but all that means is that he's the most likely to be named 'best player left out'. Hammerstein and Marcek are still in the 'just good enough to be worth mentioning' category. Both still need a near-miracle, which at this stage basically means shocking the field to win one of the remaining Masters events.

[Brian Swartz]

One thing I forgot to mention is that I've been out of rr2 for some days now. Learned everything I can, and really trying to keep up with a world at that pace is just a time sink for me, one that I didn't think was worth it anymore. The primary story in rr1 continues of course.

Girish Girsh was the fourth seed in Tashkent, and easily made it to the final against Jens Petersen. A year and a half ago Petersen had handled him easily. This one was a different story, the first tight match Girsh has had in some while. After an quick first set it could have gone either way, with Petersen looking the better player at many points, but he pulled through 6-2, 5-7, 6-4, claiming his first 'plus' Challenger title, the biggest he's won so far.

World Team Cup, Level 2 Semifinals
Luxembourg vs. Sri Lanka

Monday: M. Groeneveldt d. G. Girsh, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. A. Zagallo, 6-2, 6-1, 6-0
Wednesday: A. Mehul/G. Girsh d. M. Groeneveldt/L. Helms, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. M. Groeneveldt, 6-3, 6-1, 6-0
Friday: G. Girsh d. A. Zagallo, 6-0, 6-0, 6-1

Sri Lanka defeats Luxembourg, 4-1!!

A win here was expected, but I was surprised at how well Girsh performed. Better resistance than I thought he'd put up against Groeneveldt, though the better player was clear, contributing to another good doubles win for a change, and a dominant win in the final rubber. We'll meet Italy, 4-1 winners over Serbia, for the Level 2 title at the end of the year. They are the toughest opponent on the other side of the draw, no top players but two solid ones. Girsh could either win both or lose both depending on how it goes. If it were held on clay, we might even lose to them, but since an indoor surface has been drawn it should be a pretty easy win.

That's not for over two months though. Sri Lanka moves up four more spots to the latest high of 29th. Girsh has played a lot lately, and he'll be taking probably over a month off now for training. Mehul has Shanghai coming up in a couple of weeks, and is in need of a big result there. Planning his schedule for the end of the year will be dicey, and will hinge on what his chances are in the Race heading into the last few weeks of the season.

[Brian Swartz]

Race Standings Update(prior to Shanghai)

The Shanghai Masters has just begun, with Mehul still at 10th and not by much, Hammerstein and Marcek are breathing down his neck. But now I can add a precise cut line and make things looks clearer in terms of the Race ...


In

Iglar -- 10190
Benda -- 9900

Iglar continues to surge as has taken the lead in the battle for year-end #1!! After Wimbledon, that seemed extremely unlikely. Things did not go well for Germany in the WTC, with a 5-0 skunking by the US in the quarterfinals, and Benda has not yet replaced the points lost there. Looks like the two of them are set up for a fantastic finish.

Almagro -- 5920
Elder -- 5700
Hogue -- 5660

The order might change here, but we are up to five confirmed for the tour finals.


Probable -- 5,350 required to qualify

Alvarez -- 5075

Alvarez will almost certainly get there, probably by next week. Just a matter of time as all he needs is for the players beneath him not to basically run the table.


Contenders

Topolski -- 3960
Goncharenko -- 3730
-------------------------------------------------------
Mehul -- 3530

Back to three fighting for two spots again. All will likely to go into the last week in Paris with work yet to do.


Long Shots

Hammerstein -- 3370
Prieto -- 3350
Marcek -- 3335

Not-so-long shots now really. Hammerstein and Marcek each took another 500 title last week during the Japan and China events that most of the top players ignored, and as a result this trio will be breathing down the necks of the contenders if they aren't careful.

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

The end of the year just gets stranger every week. The main theme this year, which really I totally welcome as I like having to beat the best, is that the top players haven't just upped and not shown up to big events. This is in contrast to previous years. So what happens now?

Almagro, Topolski, and Gonacharenko don't show up, the last pair being stuck in a tight battle for the final WTF spots. Go figure. They're back in action the week after, so it looks like the manager just had another brain fart or whatever. As a result, Mehul gets a first-round bye, loses just one game in the second round, and all he needs to get to the quarters and put himself right back in the thick of things is to get by veteran Spaniard Andres Blanco, ranked 14th. He's never played Blanco, who is a guy who, at 27, is just past his best play. His career-high ranking was 11th, so he just was never quite good enough to be a major factor at the top.

Naturally, Mehul falls behind a set and a break, with break point against to go down even more. He than rallies, only to royally stink it up in the decider. Blanco, who lost in the fourth round at all the majors and made only one Masters QF(Madrid), takes the match in one of Mehul's most disappointing upsets of the year 6-3, 3-6, 6-3. He then proceeds to upset Mick Elder, making this his tournament of the year at Anil's expense. Huge, huge opportunity lost.

It got weirder. On the other side of the draw, Marcek proceeded to upset Hogue and Benda, making the final where Iglar predictably made mincemeat of him as he did every comer in this tournament. This moved him up to 10th in the rankings, knocking Mehul off the first page for the first time in months.

The upshot of all of this was that Anil Mehul only got in a couple of matches, leaving a very difficult scheduling decision. The top goal in the final phase of the season is to set himself up to be at his best in the WTC playoffs: everything else is secondary to that. After running the numbers, the best chance by far was for him to play the final three weeks(250s next week, then 500s, then the Paris Masters). Making the tour finals is becoming quite a long shot -- updated standings coming next -- and that means he needs enough match practice now to stay sharp after a month-long break between Paris and the WTC resuming in December.

Next week he's in Stockholm, the 250 that had the weakest competition. Gonacharenko and Topolski were playing in the Kremlin Cup, while Benda was in Vienna. All are indoor events, a big advantage for Mehul these last three weeks as none of the top players are as skilled as he is on the surface. Only Iglar is close.

[Brian Swartz]

Race Standings -- After Shanghai: just three weeks left!

In

Benda -- 11010
Iglar -- 11010

I double-checked this; I think I miscalculated the points here last week. Obviously this is as close as you can get. Still, Iglar has all the momentum right now, and is the better indoor player. That didn't pan out last year in the tour finals, but this year will probably be different.

Almagro -- 5920
Elder -- 5880
Hogue -- 5840


Probable -- Cut is at 5,325 points

Alvarez -- 5255

Well, the line didn't move much at all here, mostly due to Marcek's run to the Shanghai finals. Alvarez will have to wait another week to qualify it looks like.


Contenders

Topolski -- 3960
Marcek -- 3935
-------------------------
Goncharenko -- 3730

Againt three players fight for two spots, but this time Marcek is in, Goncharenko is for the moment out, and somebody's missing ...


Long Shots

Mehul -- 3620
Prieto -- 3530
Hammerstein -- 3460

Ahh, there he is. Our hero is now 315 points off the pace. He's got a big advantage in indoor events, so it's not over, but every week the odds turn more against him ...

[Brian Swartz]

Of the even dozen candidates remaining in the Race, just five -- less than half -- were active this past week. The rest chose to stay fresh for the bigger events. There was a lot of late-week shuffling between the three 250 events, which doesn't usually happen. The biggest one was Benda pulling out of Vienna and entering Stockholm instead, giving Mehul the #2 seed while Hammerstein was the #1 in Vienna. That promised to make what looked to be an easy romp through the tournament much more difficult.

They met in the final as expected, having never played before on an indoor court but Benda holding a 3-1 edge in the head-to-head, all on hardcourt. It was a close match, but Mehul's indoor expertise gave him the edge and he won 7-5, 6-4 to claim the title anyway. It's just his second pro title, and more than a year removed from his first(Japan Open - 500 last year). Hammerstein won Vienna, while Topolski defeated Goncharenko in the Kremlin Cup final which was the best way for it to work out for Anil Mehul -- Goncharenko needed the title to improve his standing in the Race at all. Mehul also slid back up to #10 in the overall rankings though just above Marcek ... they may easily switch places again.

Next up is a pair of 500 events in Valencia, where Mehul will compete against the three Spaniards taking advantage of home court there. Last year he lost narrowly to Prieto in the semifinals. The Swiss Indoors, in Basel, has a slightly stronger field with Elder, Hogue, Topolski, and Goncharenko the top seeds.


Updated Race Standings -- Two weeks left!

In

Iglar -- 11190
Benda -- 11010
Almagro -- 5920
Elder -- 5880
Hogue -- 5640
Alvarez -- 5255

Probable -- The qualification cut line is down to 4640 points this week.

Alvarez is now in, leaving this section empty. The final pair of spots will likely wait until Paris to be filled.


Contenders

Topolski -- 4060
Marcek -- 3935
------------------
Mehul -- 3870
Goncharenko -- 3730

Lots of things could still happen, but it's looking like a horserace between Mehul and Marcek after the title in Stockholm put Anil right back in the thick of things. Marcek couldn't help himself much this week; even another 500 title would only gain him 140 points, while Mehul plays in Valencia and stands to gain 410 points if he wins. He will pass Marcek if he even makes the semifinals which is extremely likely, but that also means he will go into Paris not nearly as fresh as Cestmir will ...

Topolski and Goncharenko, playing in the Swiss Indoors, could also raise their standing quite a bit. Both are fresher than Mehul & Marcek are, so they have that as an advantage. It would take a fairly dramatic turn of events for Topolski to not claim the seventh spot, but he's still less than 200 points clear. And the last one? Any of the three others could claim it. As expected, this looks like it will go right down to the wire. Nobody can afford to falter at this stage.


Long Shots

Hammerstein -- 3560
Prieto -- 3530

Prieto is in Valencia this week, while Hammerstein, after winning Vienna last week, is a lot more tired. He'll rest, and try to make one final desperate push in Paris.

[Brian Swartz]

The first big news this week came out of Basel, where Viktor Goncharenko lost to a qualifer in the second round in a tight three-set match. Spaniard Eduardo Serrano, a skilled journeyman who usually pays more attention to doubles, was the offending party for a fairly massive upset. The upshot of this was to present an opportunity to all but knock Goncharenko out of the Race. He was already 205 points out, and that number would grow if Mehul had a decent week in Valencia.

That left seven of the current Race participants, including three whose fate has not yet been decided -- Topolski, Mehul, and Prieto -- still active. Mehul was first up, advancing with a routine win to move past Marcek into 8th place. With just a week and a half to go, this marked the first time since I started tracking the Race after Wimbledon that he had made it in the field. Only by 25 points though, and the Czech would be back next week. The others soon followed suit, all seven moving through to take all but one of the semifinal spots.

Mehul next met Alvarez, which was the easiest matchup of the three Spaniards on paper. It was just over two years since their first and only meeting(Shanghai '38), which wasn't really relevant at this point. Anywhere off of clay, Anil was the favorite but an upset was possible here. He won a close first set, but the partisan crowd willed Alvarez to a comeback in another disappointing loss, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3. Topolski and Prieto lost in the semis as well, and the stage was set for Paris. Hogue and Almagro went on to take the titles this week, but that didn't matter all that much.

[Brian Swartz]

So a long work weekend is in the books now, and the Paris Masters is underway. Time to put up or shut up in determining the last two players who will be invited to the tour finals. For Iglar and Benda, the implications for the fight for year-end #1 were just as important. The quartet in the middle was basically jockeying for position as well but nothing enormous on the line for them.

After double-checking the numbers, here where we stand heading into Paris. One caveat -- I've noticed on a few occasions that the game does not always calculate a player's ranking properly. It's rare, and usually just involves a small event, but such miscalculations could play a role here. This is way things *should* be, however ...

Battle For #1

Antonin Iglar -- 11,190
Bjorn Benda -- 11,010

Unchanged since last week of course. Barring some sort of disastrous early loss, both players will go into the tour finals with a chance at the crown. Iglar has not lost since the Wimbledon final, a string of 26 straight matches. I'm not betting that ends before the end of the year.

Race to Belarus

As the title indicates, the location has been revealed for the Finals. Definitely not a sports hotspot, but I don't know how these things are determined.

Evgeni Topolski -- 4150
Anil Mehul -- 3960
------------------------------------------------------
Cestmir Marcek -- 3935
Goncharenko -- 3730
Prieto -- 3620
Hammerstein -- 3560

A pretty close group, and there are still six players mathematically in the hunt. The differences here are quite small, a win or two in a big event or two over the course of the year for any player would have changed the situation considerably. By far the most likely scenario is that Topolski is in, and Mehul is in unless Marcek goes further in Paris, in which case the Czech makes it.

Topolski is in the best position. He clinches by making the Paris final; everyone else needs to win the tournament or get help from others. Goncharenko & Prieto must at least make the semifinals to have any chance no matter what happens elsewhere; Hammerstein must make the final. Obviously the draw will be crucial here.

I'll be posting round-by-round updates as I am able(i.e., awake) given the late-season drama Mehul is involved in.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters -- Second Round

All 16 seeds get a first-round bye so there was little of interest there. In the second round everyone pretty much just wanted to get their teeth into the tournament and avoid an upset. All succeeded, but Goncharenko was in danger against meteoric Argentinian Anton Grimaldo, until the Russian pulled through 7-5, 6-4. This was good news for those in a promising position, and not so good for those chasing. In particular, David Prieto now must make the final to have any chance.

Third-Round Matchups

The men would be separated from the boys in the round of 16;

** Goncharenko faces Hammerstein in an eliminator; the loser is out of the hunt.
** Prieto(vs. Almagro) and Marcek(vs. Iglar) must pull off upsets to keep their hopes alive. This draw particularly sucks for Marcek, the worst opponent he could have drawn -- yes, Benda is still the top seed but not nearly as tough indoors.
** Mehul is smiling broadly as a consequence, and also because he gets a rematch of last week's disappointment against Alvarez, this time without the support of his home crowd. It's important that he turns the tables here; he's probably in anyway but it's far from guaranteed if he loses.
** Topolski meets Groeneveldt, and if he avoids the upset he's all but confirmed as the 7th player.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters -- Third Round

First up was Iglar vs. Marcek. The Czech Republic's top two players were not thrilled about playing each other this early -- they'd much rather play a final as in Shanghai -- but it's hard to imagine Iglar throwing away a chance at #1 to aid another player. Still, Marcek hung tough early, fighting off two break chances late in the first set to force a tiebreak, which quickly went to Iglar. A quick break early in the second looked to be all Antonin needed, and he steamrolled his way to a 7-6(2), 6-0 win. Marcek was beaten mentally after that breaker, and Mehul's chances to qualify were now very good. 28 in a row. And counting.

Almagro and Prieto were on court shortly afterwards. It was a close match at the start and both players had chances to break early. The turning point seemed to be when Prieto failed to break in the sixth game, then lost his serve in the very next game to fall behind. After losing the first set, he had every opportunity to fold but unlike Marcek did not. Rallying from a quick break, he turned the tables and forced a decisive third. Again the sixth game was key; what looked like a routine hold turned into a disaster, Prieto double-faulted on break point and was ultimately undone by his compatriot, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. The list of candidates shrunk again; David Prieto has played the tour finals for five straight years, but he will not see a sixth.

The last important match of the day session was the 'eliminator' between Goncharenko and Hammerstein. The loser was out, the winner had the chance to spoil Mehul's party if they kept going. Goncharenko snagged an early break, and survived triple break point as he served out the first set. Hammerstein had to be kicking himself after that, a perfect chance to get back in the match, and he blew it. The Austrian soon found himself down in the second set, once again missing opportunities to even it up. Not the typical pattern for Julian, normally very tough in the most critical moments. He went from long shot to history in straight sets, 6-4, 6-3, not putting up much of a fight in the process.

And then there were three. Evgeni Topolski was now all but in, but it wasn't over yet. He found himself in more of a fight than he bargained for, barely sneaking past Groeneveldt 7-6(5), 7-6(3). Heck of a fight by the Luxembourg star, who may have enough skill to add to his impressive athleticism to join the elite next year. He's not quite there yet, but nearly pulled off a big upset.

The last important match, in terms of the Race, was Alvarez v. Mehul in the evening. A loss here, and it would only take one Goncharenko upset tomorrow to knock him out of the finals. It started well for Anil -- of course, that had happened in Valencia as well. Up an early break, he came up with some well-timed aces to prevent Alvarez from breaking back in the sixth game. The Spaniard had a loose game midway through the second set, allowing a relatively straight-forward 6-2, 6-4 win, avenging the loss in Valencia. As a result, Goncharenko would need to reach the final, including stopping the Iglar freight train along the way, in order to surpass him. Unlikely, but not impossible. Meanwhile, the only way Topolski fails to qualify now is for both Mehul and Goncharenko to reach the championship match. That possibility is remote at best.

Quarterfinal Matchups

Three of the four impact on the Race:

** Benda vs. Mehul. Anil will be looking to repeat his success two weeks ago in the Stockholm final.
** Iglar vs. Topolski. A Topolski win would leave Goncharenko winning the title as his only path to failing to qualify.
** Elder vs. Goncharenko. If Elder stops the Russian #2, the Race is over and Topolski & Mehul are the final pair. He's the spoiler's last hope, so to speak.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters -- Quarterfinals

First up was Elder attempting to end things against Goncharenko. It was easy to see the Russian was playing for more here, and an up-and-down match eventually led to the most dramatic of conclusions, a deciding-set tiebreak. Both players had points to win it, and it could have gone other way, but Goncharenko pulled out the upset 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7). Elder had the more dominant set of the first two and one more point overall, but didn't finish quite well enough. The role of spoiler was still open.

Iglar had similar problems with Topolski, but when it came time for the third set there, he put on a dominant display. That final came to 6-2, 3-6, 6-1. Really just a letdown there in the second set, but either way Topolski can only wait and hope the odds fall his way.

For the second day in a row, Mehul had the last important match of the day, taking on Benda with the same scenario; he needed to win, or else his fate was in Goncharenko's hands. The German #1 would be a tougher obstacle than yesterday's opponent, and would be looking for a bit of payback after Stockholm. The tone was set right away, with Benda winning the first five points. The first set was quick, and while Mehul put up more of a fight in the second, a one-sided 6-1, 6-3 defeat was not what he had in mind here. With a fresher, champion opponent on the other side of the net, this loss isn't shameful by any measure, but it did take things out of his hands.

Evgeni Topolski qualified as 7th player officially, and the semifinal between Iglar and Viktor Goncharenko would determine the 8th. If Goncharenko won, he was in; otherwhise Mehul would be. The long season had come down to this, as dramatic a finish as one could ask for but he could only sit and watch now for this one.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters -- Final Rounds

Iglar and Goncharenko split a pair of tiebreaks in the critical semifinal match, suggesting that it could go either way. Once again the Czech dominated the final set though, 6-1, handing Mehul the final spot in the tour finals! Barring a clerical error, that is.

The tournament came down another Iglar-Benda final, won by Iglar in three sets. 31 straight wins and counting, and he'll guarantee himself the year-end #1 if he makes the final in Belarus. After the chaotic rush to end the year, there will be a couple of weeks off before the top players convene for that event, which will be followed by even more important events for me: the culmination of the WTC for this season.

[law90026]

Dramatic last week! Congrats

[britrock88]

Whew!

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks gents! It came down to 50 points(4140 vs. 4090). If everybody had played Shanghai Mehul probably wouldn't have made it -- but on the other hand he was fighting uphill against players with better ranking & seeding all year. Luck flowed both ways at different times, and in the end it was really just a coin-flip kind of situation. Could have gone either way, but I'm glad to be in. Hopefully not too tired to have a chance at making a splash in Belarus ...

Tour Finals Preview

Field was announced officially as we are one week away and my calculations were correct. At the top, Antonin Iglar has officially taken the #1 spot from Bjorn Benda a week shy of his 24th birthday. My guess is he'll be there for a good long while. The German held it for over a year, 65 weeks -- by comparison, Alastra had it for 82 weeks before him. He's still the world's best on clay but other than it's hard to see him taking the spot back from the dominant Czech. As it stands now, Iglar needs to win his round-robin matches and the semifinal to guarantee he keeps the top spot for the end of the year. It's not over yet, but with the way he's played the last few months it probably will be soon.

It's a pretty even split of three age brackets at this year's finals. David Almagro is making an impressive seventh straight appearance, while Mick Elder is here for the fourth year. With Prieto having tumbled out of the Top 10 now, it might be the last hurrah for the vestiges of what was once a dominant group of players headed by Alastra. Those two are currently ranked third and fourth, so they aren't being put out to pasture just yet and might have something to say about results here.

Benda, last year's unbeaten champion, returns for a third appearance. Viktor Goncharenko narrowly missed returning, but David Alvarez and Evgeni Topolski, the former a late bloomer and the latter a career underachiever, both make their first appearances here.

Antonin Iglar had just one round-robin last year and is back expecting a lot more, along with Anil Mehul making his first finals. Along with being the youngest players, Iglar & Mehul are also by far the most skilled indoor players. Despite their youth a definite splash by them is expected, although as Antonin found out in '39, first-timers tend to not do all that well.

** OOC Note: The game says I still can't register for the WTF, even though it's next week. I'm hoping that means it just automatically brings in the Top 8 ... Mehul is back up to 8th this week so he should be in the field. I've just never done this before with my own players so I'm not sure how it works. **

Girish Girsh, sort of a forgotten man in all the Race stuff in terms of my updates, has had the last several weeks off and this week he's back in action at the Sao Paulo 'plus' Challenger. There's another week of challengers after that if needed during the Finals themselves, and then the WTC to finish up the year.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals

Anil Mehul was pulled in as expected. Apparently the finals work differently from the other tournaments: the tournament chooses the players, so to speak, instead of the other way around. Top 8 singles and doubles are pulled in whether they want to play or not. At least I know how it works now.

A bit more detail on how the tournament works as well. The eight players are divided into two groups. Half are seeded: #1 and #4 go into one group, #2 and #3 into the second group, and the bottom four get dispersed randomly. In this case, one group had Benda, Almagro, Hogue, and Alvarez, ; the other had Iglar, Elder, Topolski, and Mehul. The round-robin matches are worth 200 apiece, 400 for a semifinal win, and 500 for a finals win, for a total of 1500 possible for an undefeated run such as Benda achieved last year.

Round One

Mick Elder was Mehul's first opponent. The first set was tough, but he played well in the tiebreaker, and Elder basically keeled over in the second set, a shocking bagel. 7-6(2), 6-0. A great start.

Round Two

Iglar had beaten Topolski on Monday, and Elder before today's match started. The upshot of all of that was that Mehul could qualify for the semifinal round by beating Evgeni Topolski today, while the Russian needed to win to keep his chances alive. Fitting for that circumstance, the match was a war from the word go. It took a long, tense tiebreak for Topolski to prevail in the first, while Mehul stole an early break and held onto it in the second. The decisive third set had plenty of chances for both players, with the key moment coming in the 11th game. Tied 5-5 and seemingly heading for another breaker, Anil finally dented the Russian's serve again, then held on to convert his second match point for a 6-7(8), 6-3, 7-5 win!

Surprisingly, the other two semifinalists were booked as well, with Benda and Hogue both winning their first pair of matches. I don't think I've ever seen a Finals where there was nothing to play for other than matchups on the third day.

Round Three

Last up was Antonin Iglar, the reward mostly being a favorable matchup against the second-place finisher in the other group to the winner. Mehul started well, taking a close first set, but the Czech got better as the match went along and won again as expected, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.

Semifinals

Benda and Iglar, to the surprise of nobody, made it through round-robin play unscathed. That left Bjorn Benda as Mehul's foe here. It was a virtual repeat of his last match: he took the first set fairly easily, but couldn't hold the lead. The German moved on to the finals with a 2-6, 6-1, 6-4 score. Perhaps if he was fresher he might have done better, but making the semis is still a notable accomplishment. Mehul will move up a notch to 7th in the rankings now, a new best for him.

Finals

By making it this far, Antonin Iglar assured himself of the year-end #1. For the fourth time in his five matches this week, he dropped a set but still came through the victor over Benda, 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 to extend his streak to an astounding 36 consecutive wins.


Elsewhere, Girish Girsh finished off his season in grand style, winning the + Challenger at Sao Paolo, and then the Tier-2 in Toyota, Japan for his seventh and eighth challenger titles. He's now threatening to break into the Top 50 by the beginning of next year.

After a week off, the WTC Level 2 Finals and then the playoffs to reach Level 1 will commence, with the playoffs especially of obvious vital importance to my goals.

[Brian Swartz]

WTC Level 2 Finals
Sri Lanka vs. Italy, Indoor

Monday: A. Mehul d. T. Alberti, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. A. El Brazi, 6-1, 2-6, 6-2, 6-0
Wednesday: G. Girsh/A. Mehul d. X. Jue/A. Lepore, 6-3, 7-6(2), 6-3
Thursday: A. Mehul d. A. El Brazi, 6-1, 6-1, 6-0
Friday: G. Girsh d. T. Alberti, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-0

Sri Lanka blanks Italy, 5-0!

A fairly easy win was expected, but doubles and Girsh were question marks. We did well on both accounts with my younger player getting a pair of four-set wins. Sri Lanka is the 2040 Level 2 WTC Champion! This victory moves us up another four spots to 26th overall.

And now comes the real test. We were fortunate not to draw Austria in the playoffs next week -- but not that fortunate. Our opponent will be 13th-ranked Peru, which has spent the last four years at Level 1 without once escaping group play; this is the first year in that stretch they've had to defend their position in a playoff though since ascending five years ago. They are rebuilding a bit, with a pair of solid young clay-court specialists, Thiago and Marcelo Herrera. Both are 23 years old, and they are ranked 24th and 50th respectively. Under most circumstances I'd still be fairly confident that we could beat them, but this encounter is on clay, which frankly makes Peru the favorite.

Even if Mehul manages to defeat both of them, Girsh is unlikely to. We'll need a doubles win to have any chance. On any other ground I think we'd have the upper hand, but this will be an uphill battle; and a vital one. If we lose, Sri Lanka will have to toil another year in the 'minors' of Level 2 to earn another chance at reaching the big time. We're good enough to be a Level 1 nation, I think with the current combo we're probably around 10th best in the world. Still have to earn our place though, and in this matchup the deck is stacked heavily against us. I'd say we have perhaps one chance in four of knocking the Peruvians off.

This will be the most important week to date in Sri Lankan tennis: hopefully we can pull something out of the hat.

[britrock88]

I keep loving this dynasty--the site/program it's based on is great, and the thematic approach is excellent. I'd love to chronicle my RR adventures--but the very fast 4hr/wk approach would make it difficult to go into nearly the level of detail that you do.

[Brian Swartz]

Glad you still are enjoying it! After this long that's a great sign. I think I've said this before, but I could have put it up earlier, I honestly didn't think there would be much interest in it. It's funny -- I find the ideas I don't think people will like get a solid following, and the ones I think are great often land with a thud.

Anyway, feel free to chime in with any suggestions on things to report or that are repetitive, whatever. I agree with you on the speed thing, you'd really just have to summarize each season or year. It has strengths and weaknesses, but I find the slower pace adds to suspense at certain moments and accomplishments seem more rewarding because I had to wait for them.

Since you were nice enough to comment, I'll throw in a pretty major spoiler. I went off to work having resigned myself to a probable loss against Peru, and a little bummed about having to play a clay nation on clay. I had a lousy day at work, setting a personal record in the longest time ever having to stay over due to various issues. Then I came home and checked the results so far -- three matches in ... and Sri Lanka has swept them all, clinching a victory and promotion to Level 1! Details probably Sunday, but I was pretty floored. Not complaining though :).

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Level 1 Playoffs
Sri Lanka vs. Peru, Clay

Monday

The first day featured Girish Girsh and the better of Peru's two singles players, Thiago Herrera. What I didn't realize is that Thiago hadn't prepared himself well, coming in somewhat on the rusty side. Girsh seized the opportunity and battled back for a hard-fought, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 7-6(4) win. It was a long tiring match, but one that gave Sri Lanka a fantastic start.

Tuesday

With Anil Mehul going up against their #2, Marcelo Herrera, this figured to be on the gimme in this tie. That's pretty much how it worked out; Mehul won in straights, 6-1, 7-5, 6-1. We were now up 2-0, one win away.

Wednesday

Girsh & Mehul tangled with D. Ciruana/J. Torres in the doubles, and it didn't look good early. Like Girsh had in his singles match on the first day though, they rallied to win it in four. The final was 2-6, 6-4, 6-2, 7-5. Overall it was pretty even, but after the first set we were the better pair. On break chances, Sri Lanka was 8 of 15, Peru just 6 of 18. And that clinched it, an insurmountable 3-0 lead!

Thursday

Mehul completed a perfect WTC singles season, 14 ties won against zero defeats. Today's foe was Thiago Herrera, who was able to make it competitive but that's about it, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4.

Friday

Going for a previously unthinkable clean sweep, Girsh was tripped by Marcelo in the finale. Aside from the second set, it was really quite a disappointing one-sided affair; 6-1, 1-6, 6-1, 6-2. Girsh had a bad day in general, but particularly serving. Fortunately, it didn't cost us.

Sri Lanka defeats Peru, 4-1!

I expect our opponent here will probably return to this point and try to make it back up next year. While the brothers Herrera are overly focused on clay and as we saw this week, not always well-managed, they are talented enough to be a marginal Level 1 nation and should be around for several years. We could well see them again.

More importantly, Sri Lanka has reached the grown-up level. Peru's loss is our gain, and after last year's disappointment we have pushed through with a perfect run through Level 2, which is now in the rear-view mirror.

[Brian Swartz]

2041 World Team Cup Preview

This next couple of weeks is my favorite time of year I think. I'll get to the end-of-year rankings, review of the completed season and what I was right and wrong about, ratings and projections for next year, a first detailed look at Girsh's contemporaries, and so on. But first, a look at what the WTC is likely to bring.

A look back here at how Sri Lanka has risen through the national rankings since regaining admission to the World Team Cup four years ago:

2037 -- +19(86th to 67th)
2038 -- +16(67th to 51st)
2039 -- +9(51st to 42nd) -- QF loss to Austria :(
2040 -- +16(42nd to 26th)

We've still lost only twice, both times to Austria, with no defeats to all others combined. They managed to stay in Level 1, by the way, with a 4-1 defeat of Luxembourg in their playoff. I expect that situation to change this next year.

It's a huge jump up in competition at the elite level we find ourselves at. I'd say it's a bigger jump from Level 2 to Level 1 than it is from not being in the competition all the way up to Level 2. In order to have any real chance at winning the top level, it's pretty much mandatory to have a pair of Top 10 players. There are four nations right now that have that: the US, Spain, Czech Republic, and Russia. Everybody else is pretty much fighting for leftovers. Sri Lanka isn't there yet -- Girsh is still a couple of years away probably. But we are here. From this point we can sniff my ultimate goal, making Sri Lanka the #1 nation in the world and winning the WTC -- the second would have to happen probably multiple times before we reach the first.

I think we're good enough to stick in Level 1. The most likely scenario is being good enough to stay up, but not good enough to make it out of group play. Finishing second in our group and making it to the quarterfinals is possible with a kind draw; so is having to win a playoff to stay up if we get a particularly bad draw like Austria did last year. As it has been through each level so far, we are the lowest-ranked nation at 26th; everyone else up here is in the Top 20.

As it ends up, we are in top-heavy Group 2 with defending champion Spain(1st), last year's runner-up Czech Republic(6th), and over-rated Mexico(10th). It would take a minor miracle to upset the Czechs or Spaniards, so it figures to really come down to our tie with Mexico. The loser figures to be in a playoff. This is the Mexicans 10th straight year at Level 1, and they've made it out of the group stage six times, losing in the quarterfinals every time and almost all of them badly. In that time they've never been subjected to a relegation playoff, but they aren't what they used to be. Girsh has beaten their top player, George Craighead twice in competitive matches recently. Nobody they have can threaten Mehul. So while there could be a surprise, I see everyone beating up on Mexico, Sri Lanka getting thrashed by the top powers as well, and ending up with a win, two losses, and see you next year hopefully with a better draw. . If that's how it works out, it will at least be an education, especially for Girsh, and I'll have a better idea just how far he has to go before we're ready to contend up here.

[Brian Swartz]

The New Year has turned. That means it's time for me to spam this thread with a number of (hopefully useful and/or interesting) update posts.

Top Ten Rankings

1. Antonin Iglar(24, CZE) -- 13,790 points

Iglar finished the year with 38 straight wins. The last time he lost a singles match was the Wimbledon final, nearly six months ago. The game doesn't track streak data, but I can tell you his season was historic enough that I'll be spending a mini-update describing just how good it is. The Czech phenom took the #1 spot from Benda at exactly his 24th birthday, and I expect he'll hold it for a number of years. Simply put, he's the best there is right now and there's no question about it.

2. Bjorn Benda(26, DEU) -- 12,610

The brilliance of Iglar's star means the German champion is done at the top, but he's far from done overall. I don't expect anyone to impinge on his clay kingdom for at least the next year or two, and possibly longer. He's head and shoulders above the rest of the pack, and may well be #2 for a long time. In a year in which he won his first Slam off of clay(Wimbledon) and improved his tour-leading points total of 2039 by more than 1,000 points, Benda isn't even the top story in the game; but it should be noted he had a fantastic year -- just not historically great.

3. David Almagro(30, ESP) -- 6,680

In a very, very distant third, Almagro, like his countryman David Prieto last year, had one of his best seasons at age 30. He's hoping not to fall to pieces the next season and further emulate DP.

4. Perry Hogue(26, USA) -- 6,520

Hogue had a surprising year, rallying from looked like the onset of an early decline in his career. Maybe not quite yet. He's a match for anyone other than Iglar on the hardcourts, and looks like he might hang around a bit longer than anticipated. Hogue did exceptionally well in the smaller events, with a Masters title in Miami and semifinals at the tour finals and Wimbledon to bolster his resume.

5. Mick Elder(29, USA) -- 6,220

Never the hardest-working player, Elder has made up for that to a degree by being extremely tough in close matches. He had just one tournament title this year and none at the big events, but a trio of Slam semifinals certainly kept him very relevant.

6. David Alvarez(28, ESP) -- 5,385

Just as I'd given up on his chances to do so, Alvarez emerged as a new face on the dirt this year. His results were really unremarkable off of clay, but he was the champion in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, with runner-up finishes in Rome and at Roland Garros itself. He'll go as far as his ability to produce similar clay results allows.

7. Anil Mehul(24, SRI) -- 4,690

Mehul continues to be the highest-ranking player without a Masters title or better. One wonders if he will break through against the dominant power structure, fade, or simply continue to see similar success through consistency? Semifinals at the Australian Open, Miami, and Indian Wells saw him get off to a terrific start but the rest of the year was not particularly impressive ... until a late-season run into the World Tour Finals and a semifinal appearance there.

8. Evgeni Topolski(27, RUS) -- 4,530

Ever the underachiever, Topolski doesn't appear that he'll ever make a serious run at the best in the sport.

9. Viktor Goncharenko(27, RUS) -- 4,090

Goncharenko was surprised and miffed to narrowly miss out on the tour finals, culminating a disappointing year for the 2039 Wimbledon champion. Whether he can turn things around remains to be seen.

10. Cestmir Marcek(26, CZE) -- 4,025

Better late than never, they say. For the last year and a half, Marcek has made life miserable for many of the top players. This year he helped the Czech Republic to a close WTC final loss against Spain. For some reason, he had not found significant success in Slams, failing to reach further than the 4th round. A pair of 500 wins in Germany and China, along with a solid set of Masters results including a stunning run to the Shanghai final late in the year certain earned him some very justified notice. All signs indicate that he is a late bloomer who is still getting better.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 12th to 7th singles, 104th to 126th doubles. Mehul is now unquestioningly in his prime, he can still get a bit better but only very marginally. From here on out it's really as much about the players around him as it is what he does, and making the most of his opportunities.


Girish Girsh -- 98th to 40th singles, 424th to 123rd doubles. Girsh really rocketed up the charts the second half of the year, beginning his move to the top and become a fixture in the Sri Lanka WTC team as the #2 singles and a key part of the doubles as well. I've always thought of him as just a bit better than Mehul; well, he's well ahead of Mehul's pace now(73rd in singles at the same age plus 8 weeks). I do schedule players differently now so that impacts it some. Girsh won his first challenger five weeks later than Mehul did, but has 8 challenger and 10 junior titles, while Mehul only recorded 3 and 9 respectively ... I still say Girsh will be slightly better but both in the same ballpark.

At any rate, Girsh is now embarking on what will be his 'King of the Challengers' season. For the most part he'll be playing only the biggest challenger events and looking to get into the 250s at some point when it proves useful. I'll still have some choices to make in terms of what tournaments he plays, but at some point this year he'll transition into the 'elite schedule' -- mostly Slams, Masters, WTC much like Mehul plays. That's always a bit rocky, but it's his time to prove himself among the best in the international tennis scene.


Prakash Mooljee -- 168th to 66th juniors. Mooljee found himself an excellent groove most of the year, amassing a ridiculous 42-2 singles record largely because his practices were going so well so that I didn't want to move him above Tier 4. Now he's midway through his junior (mis)adventures, and he'll be moving up to Tier 3 immediately, and higher probably. There's nobody both younger and higher-ranked, like last year, but there are about 3-4 that are just slightly older and significantly more accomplished. Mooljee is doing well, and looks to be at least a Top 10 juniors player as was Girsh. The task at the beginning of this year is to find a decent rhythm for him in terms of playing the right events so he can continue to have lots of practice time in between.


Anil Manohar -- 580th to 826th singles, 870th to 590th doubles. A rather amusing situation in which the 38-year-old Manohar essentially swapped singles and doubles positions. His trainer level now grades out to 4.211, a change of +.077 from last year. I'll probably keep him going for about 3-4 more years and retire him as about a 4.5 trainer in his early 40s. Finding the right time for that is basically a timing issue in terms of when I want the next junior after Mooljee, and bearing in mind that Mehul will probably be ready to be a max trainer for the player after that in about 10 years, in his mid-30s. Manohar still plays low-level futures, the occasional run to the business end but often losing in the early rounds. He's doing well enough to keep from being pushed down into the amateur ranks, but not by much.

[Brian Swartz]

What Does That Guy Know Anyway?

I thought it might be interesting here to revisit some of the things I said a year go(game-time), and see how they turned out.

Benda is probably headed into a dominant 2040 campaign.

This one is interesting because it is simultaneously almost completely wrong and not that far off. Obviously Iglar had the dominant year but Benda still had his best season and was head and shoulders above the rest of the tour, to the tune of having almost twice the points right now of his next closest rival.

Elder is still more than a match for most of the elite

This is still true. He slid a couple of spots to 5th, but barely.

All signs point to a fairly quick decline now for the meteoric Hogue.

Or not. Did slide a bit in terms of total points, but he was 4th last year, and he's still 4th. Perry Hogue was as big a surprise as anyone, actually reversing the hands of time if only temporarily.

The general consensus is that he's a one-hit wonder who will hang around for a while, but has probably seen his lone brief moment in the sun.

Goncharenko was in view here, and this was definitely true. It looks like he's on his way out.

Best guess is he finishes this year as #2 behind the German champion.

After all the flowery things I said about Iglar, I missed the boat a bit with this call. I thought it would take him a little longer, and I didn't see him going unbeaten for half a year.

A strong finish to the year, but he's not getting any younger

And then Almagro had his second-best season at age 30, finishing third after an eighth-place standing a year ago. Time to eat a little bit more crow here.

I expect to see him off the top page by year's end.

Yeah I was totally off here, in reference to David Alvarez.

So some I was correct about, others ... not so much.

[Tellistto]

Good showings, Brian!

[Brian Swartz]

*bow*

A couple more things to mention here.

Top Managers

Missed this in my rankings rundown, but I moved up from 20th to 18th this year, adding about 1.5k to my points total for just over 15k entering the new year. There are three fairly close to me that I could potentially pass this year in the 15-16k range, and three more in the 17-18k range, with everyone else at 20k or more.

At the top, oprice set a new record high for rr1 this season. He set it at the US Open, then broke it at the World Tour Finals. The new mark is 52,532. Only two other managers have ever made it within 10k of that mark, and nobody else is currently within 20k. In other words, you could add all of my points to the closest competitor and he would still be in first place.

Right now is sort of a perfect storm for oprice, who manages both Iglar and Benda. I've also noticed, in my observation of other managers, that he's the only one that really doesn't do anything I consider a mistake. I've seen a grand total of one error from him: Benda skipping Monte Carlo this past year. That's it. It seems like just about everyone else is prone to overplay their players, esp. the young ones -- Marcel Bahana, run by third-ranked marsel, the previous record holder at just over 51k, is a good example of this. There is also a near-universal tendency to play developing players in events they aren't really ready for -- going for a quick gain of points at the expense of long-term development. Other consistent more minor flaws also exist. From what I've seen, if I play this game long enough I think I'll eventually outpace everyone else, but I don't know if I'd ever surpass oprice. He seems to really have all his ducks in a row, so to speak.

[Brian Swartz]

2041 Preview

This past year, there was quite a clear line of separation between the Top 12 players and everyone else. From 12 to 13 and beyond, a significant dropoff occurred. Here I'll take a look at how things look for the Dazzling Dozen(or whatever) going forward:

1. Antonin Iglar(95%, 10.14) -- +0.11

Nobody is close. Iglar posted a 36-5 record against the Top 12, which as we will see is far better than anyone else did. It goes even deeper than that, as he was 87-6 overall. I took a look back through history, and only Eric Gorritepe managed to lose as few as six matches in an entire year throughout the now-50 years of the tour. He's a category unto himself, having twice lost only two times, three another year, four another year, and also five on one occasion. Looking at the other greats though, Nicholas Sullivan lost at least seven each season, Oliver Haresign eight, and while the environment was a bit different with players playing a lot more events often, Martin Prieto lost at least eight though one year he had an astonishing 160 wins.

When you put all of that together, it can accurately be said that only Gorritepe ever had a better year than what Iglar just did in the 2040 campaign. It really helps put things in perspective, and only one player was responsible for more than one of his defeats. I'm proud to say it was Anil Mehul, who was also the only player to defeat him on his favored hardcourt surface(Indian Wells quarterfinals, in addition to the French Open 4th round later in the year). Iglar is still getting better, while his top rivals are not. He rules the tennis world with an unshakable iron fist, it's just that simple.

2. Bjorn Benda(91%, 9.89) -- -0.04

I'm not yet sold that Benda is on the decline, but he's definitely just about peaked at best. He was the only other player to post a record much above .500 against the top tier, with a sparkling 28-13 mark. Even at that, he lost well over twice as often as Iglar dead against the best. I expect him to continue to fall away into a more distant second place, but remain well ahead of the rest.

3. David Almagro(84%, 9.70) -- -0.19

Almagro looks likely to begin to fade this year as Prieto did last year. He was better than 8th last season, isn't as good as 3rd this season, and will probably end the year somewhere in between those two. Time is unforgiving. Almagro managed a solid 19-15 record against the best this year.

4. Perry Hogue(88%, 9.72) -- +0.06

I figured Hogue was done last year, and he actually improved somewhat! One thing that I'm learning from this is that, in general, I think players are peaking not at 26 but something closer to age 28. Perry won't be able to fight forever the simple fact that he is a quick developing, fast-aging player, and I'll be surprised if he improves again at this point, but his demise will certainly take longer than I expected. His extreme focus on hardcourt will make him a factor on that surface for at least another year or two I imagine. Hogue split his top-level matchups, 17 up and 17 down.

5. Mick Elder(85%, 9.75) -- -0.12

Especially towards the end of the year, the first signs that even his brilliant mental game can't keep Elder at the top of the sport were seen. He was just 14-18 againt the Top 12, although Mehul still had lots of problems with him during their matchups(tour finals excepted). He's still good enough to hang around the Top 5 I think, but continued slight erosion is expected and by next year he may no longer be a major factor.

6. David Alvarez(89%, 9.67) -- +0.01

It appears that Alvarez is pretty much at his peak right now. I'd expect more of what we saw this year; great results on clay, but he's not a factor anywhere else. A solid overall record against the Dazzling Dozen of 16-15 was actually enabled by the fact that he lost eight times against lower-ranked players on other surfaces. This was rare among the elite group; Iglar was beaten only once by the lower reaches and Mehul was 51-0 against them(hard to improve on that!).

7. Anil Mehul(95%, 9.76) -- +0.13

I'm pleased to say that Mehul grades out as the most improved player among the elite(narrowly over Iglar, who nearly overcame lower endurance with max training and equally good strategy). I'm not sure how much more improvement is in store, I think he's approaching the point where it will be difficult to get much better. Unlike last year though, he goes into the year feeling himself at least an equal overall to most of the rest of the best. He'll be looking to improve on a 12-18 record to something around break-even or better.

8. Evgeni Topolski(90%, 9.73) -- -0.09

The Russian underacheiver, generally poorly managed and not all that dedicated to begin with, looks like he's done about all he's going to do. After two tour finals in three years, he may well not be back. An 11-18 mark showed he was competitive this season, and he'll probably do about that again.

9. Viktor Goncharenko(89%, 9.52) -- -0.04

Goncharenko rode the coattails of his Wimbledon win for a while, but once those points disappeared he slid gradually down the rankings. His 5-17 record against the Dazzling Dozen was the worst in the group, and he lost five matches outside of it as well. I don't see him staying in the Top 10 for another year.

10. Cestmir Marcek(91%, 9.58) -- ??

Marcek was enough of a surprise that I didn't even rate him last year. I wasn't yet sold that he was going to bloom into a top player at this point of his career. Obviously I was wrong. My guess is he gets a bit better this year, and that this might well be a peak season for him. At 10-18 against the Top 12, he was just good enough to be a pain.

11. David Prieto(83%, 9.49) -- -0.15

A charmed year in 2039 had Prieto at #3, belying the fact that he was already well into his decline phase. This season he notched a 5-16 mark against the best, including 0-13 against the top half-dozen or so. A couple of early wins against him by Mehul didn't look quite so shiny in retrospect. Briefly #1 for 19 weeks, Prieto's time has come and gone. I doubt he'll appear in this rundown next season.

12. Julian Hammerstein(95%, 9.88) -- +0.08

Hammerstein is an enigma. His management is decent, although not optimal. Still, he should have been better the last year, year and a half than he has been. By all rights he ought to be competing with Benda for the #2 spot this year, but it was just a strange season for him. 10-14 against the top players isn't great but far from an embarassment. The biggest thing for him was that he wasn't able to produce a single notable upset, and he did drop a few, though not many, against players he should beat. A strong rise up the rankings should happen this year, but I'm less certain that it will.

Synopsis

I think Prieto and Goncharenko will cease to be factors, and Marcek hangs around the bottom of this group. Benda & Iglar own the top, but between them is a group of seven players that should be super-competitive. Anil Mehul could wind up anywhere in this group. I can see him rising to third or fourth, or falling a bit and struggling to even make the tour finals again. At a certain point it is just up to the player, and which players seize their opportunities best is really going to be the determining factor I think.

The Pack

There are only really two possibilities that I see out there for players that could join this group and replace what I expect to be the loss of Prieto and possibly Goncharenko. American Pierce Gaskell(14th, 95%, 9.59) is about equal to Marcek in ability but not managed as well -- he was overplayed fairly criminally last year. Still, he's got the potential to do it. The other possibility, again railroaded by mismanagement of various kinds, is Spaniard Marcel Bahana(97%, 9.75). Bahana really should be a Top 10 player by the end of the year, and really is a tragic waste right now. He's still improving, but needs to see results on the court and stop playing so much. I'm not sure how likely that is.

Here's how the rest of my players compare:

40. Girish Girsh(99%, 9.24) -- +0.45

Still at his physical peak though nearing the end of it, Girsh is improving rapidly and could well be in the top players conversation or at least on the edge of it by this time next year. I expect he'll end the year somewhere in the 20-30 range.

826. Anil Manohar(64%, 6.50)

66J. Prakash Mooljee(76%, 5.10) -- +1.10

Mooljee may be ready for amateurs by the end of the year or beginning of next, but for now is just more practice, practice, practice and mid-level junior events.

[Brian Swartz]

Generation Flash

With Girish Girsh on the rise, and Iglar having taken over at the top, it's a reasonable time to take a look at the next generation of players. They aren't ready to hit the big time yet, but will be in a year or two. Girsh is 2-3 years behind Iglar; we're looking at players generally in the 21-23 year old range here.

At the head of the class is the already-mentioned Marcel Bahana(9.75), who will still be the standard-bearer if he gets his act together. Probably the next-best possibility was Swede Nils Mednick, whose manager went AWOL several game months ago, ruining chances there. The highest-ranked player is presently Peru's Thiago Herrera(9.17, 24th), who we met a few weeks back. He will probably be a force on clay, but very slow foot speed holds him back some. Here's how some notable others look so far:

31. Radek Smitala(23, USA) -- 9.26. Smitala is a hard worker, but appears to be the Lubos Nedved of this generation; a meteoric career path that has him already well past his physical peak. Still, he's a good athlete and pretty much an even match for Girsh right now. He will bear watching.
37. Tobia Alberti(21, ITA) -- 8.9. Alberti is a fine athlete but hasn't improved his baseline game nearly enough. I expect this will keep him from rising much further the next couple of years.
44. Johnny Loudermilk(22, USA) -- 9.19. Loudermilk is a fitting poster child, and a representative of why I've termed it 'Generation Flash'. He looks pretty good now, a good athlete and decent skills, but he's not dedicated to putting in the work. As time goes by, Girsh will pull away from this kind of player, even though he's not as athletic, simply through the accumulated fine-tuning of his skills that comes only through consistent hard work. Jacinto Iturren(ESP, 43rd), to a degree Marcelo Herrera(PER, 45th), and Efim Lipovsky(RUS, 47th) are just a few of the highest-ranking of the many young players that could be described in this way.
53. Gustavo Caratti(21, ARG) -- 8.72. A clay-court specialist, not the best mentally and a little behind in terms of skills as well, Caratti is one of those guys like Hammerstein with superhuman strength. He's young enough that he may yet become quite an excellent player.
66. Joseph Skirrow(21, USA) -- 8.9. Girsh has already beaten Skirrow a couple of times, but the American is still good enough to be relevant for a while. An excellent athlete with an underdeveloped baseline game.
74. Garreth McCuskey(20, USA) -- 8.76. McCuskey is younger than the others, but from a physical point of view he's a real phenom. Athletically, he's a little more gifted even than Iglar, probably the best overall athlete I've seen. Properly handled he would be a beast. That isn't happening, but he's the standard-bearer for players coming up at the end of this generation and worth watching.

Summary

It looks to me like Bahana is just too good not to eventually succeed to a certain extent eventually, but I think Girsh easily outpaces the rest of this group. There's still a lot of them out there with decent serves and good athleticism, but the mental attitude and commitment to succeed just isn't there. Many will fall by the wayside over the next couple of years. We're probably looking at a two-year gap here before we find out who will contribute and who won't, with Bahana and Girsh really the only sure things. T. Herrera, Smitala, Loudermilk, and McCuskey are all almost certainly Top 20 at some point, but beyond that it's a big question whether they will progress further.

[Brian Swartz]

The annual reports are now complete. We had quite the first WTC clash to begin 2041 ...

World Team Cup, Level 1 Group 2 First Round
Czech Republic vs. Sri Lanka, Hard

Monday -- Iglar flattened Girsh in the first match, surprising nobody. It was competitive, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4, and a good learning experience which is about all I could ask for.

Tuesday -- Mehul evened up the tie against Marcek, though it didn't look good early. He cruised through the last two sets for a 2-6, 7-6(8), 6-2, 6-2 win to start off his year.

Wednesday -- Girsh/Mehul faced off against Nedved/Marcek, a match we needed to win but I frankly didn't expect to. They continue to be a surprisingly effective doubles pairing despite not working at all on that aspect, and won a competitive 6-2, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 victory. Up 2-1, we just needed one upset in the reverse singles to get a big upset!

Thursday -- This was our best chance, to have Mehul knock off the seeming invincible Iglar. It looked like he might do it as well, taking two of three breakers to begin the match. At the end, he couldn't quite hold off the champion and lost after one heck of an effort in what I think is longest, most epic match any of my players has had. 6-7(4), 7-6(1), 6-7(2), 6-4, 6-4 was the final, both players exhausted by the end of the 392 points required. Iglar was just a little bit stronger those last couple of sets, but it was very close.

Friday -- In the decider, Girsh did not have the day I hoped for and Marcek blasted him off the court, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3. Bit of a downer to have such an anticlimactic end to a fine tie, but we were expected to lose anyway.

Czech Republic defeats Sri Lanka, 3-2.

We will next have Spain, and unless we pull off the upset we aren't making it out of the group stage. They blanked Mexico 5-0 as expected. We will face the Mexicans last in what figures to be a battle to avoid a playoff spot. That will be on clay, but I doubt it will matter -- they are just outclassed right now.

Due to events elsewhere, Sri Lanka moves up one spot to 25th despite the defeat.

[Brian Swartz]

January

There was a bit of rather shocking news during the expected relative quiet of the run-up to the Australian Open. World #5 Mick Elder was dumped by his manager! This kind of thing just doesn't happen; usually when a player is 'fired' they are at least out of the Top 20, declining veterans no longer needed, that sort of thing.

I looked into it and believe it or not, it's not as completely insane as it seems. marsel is the manager in question, currently third in the standings, points record-holder until oprice broke it last year, and a long-running success. He currently has the following players:

** Eric Gorritepe(35 years old)
** David Prieto(30)
** Marcel Bahana(22)
** Rodrigo Rivera(16)

The slide of Gorritepe and Prieto down the rankings has been facilitated by the fact that marsel has been working on doubles for both of them, probably a precursor to replacing his trainers. He has two max trainers, but at age 55 and 53 they would only be around a few more years. Bahana is the next big thing over the horizon, and when Rivera became available he jumped at the chance. All four are Spaniards, as is marsel himself -- which is probably why he dumped Elder, an American, instead of Prieto. Picking up Rivera, giving himself a promising new youngster with nobody coming up for him, makes a lot of sense.

Mick Elder is the kind of player who I would expect someone to pick up soon, as he'd make a great trainer candidate or points-winning vet for somebody, but he's still out there as of the start of the AO.

Prakash Mooljee had his first tier-3 the week before the Slam, and it went smoothly until the semifinals until he ran into marsel's new youngster. Rivera edged him in two tiebreaks, and I think we'll see more of him; there's a gap of just three months between them in terms of age and both look likely to have long, successful careers.

Mooljee will back in action at a Tier-2 in Lima next week while the best players are all in Australia, while Girsh and Mehul descend on the first Slam for the pro tour.

[Brian Swartz]

Australian Open

Girish Girsh came in winless in 5 Slam matches, with some incredibly unlucky draws contributing to that. This time he had a very average first-round draw, with China's Lan-Feng Chen as his opponent. Chen could match him from the baseline, but his weak serve was exposed in a 6-2, 7-6(2), 6-3 straight-sets win as Girsh finally broke his streak of failures.

Next up was 22nd-seeded Manfred Borrman(SWE), who was about as good a matchup as he could hope to have from a seeded player. Borrman is a bit past his peak, and after a tense first-set tiebreak, Girsh eliminated him in three as well! All the fun looked to come to a dead end in the third round, with Perry Hogue waiting. The American was in for a bit of a surprise though. Girsh fought back to take the second set ... and again in the fourth after being blanked in the third ... but in the fifth he wilted again. I don't think I've ever said a player did well after being breadsticked and bageled, but such was the case in this strange match. Hogue won as expected but not without a fight, 6-4, 4-6, 6-0, 4-6, 6-1.

And so it was that in his first Slam that he won a match in, Girsh reached the round of 32, and pushed the world #5 to a fifth set. That's one heck of a way to start the year, and it moves him up to 35th. I don't think he'll move higher for a while, but it pushes him very close to an important threshold. At 32nd, he would be seeded for Slams and the big Masters(IW/Miami), and also ineligible for challengers. That's pretty much the point at which a player switches from 'training' mode to 'elite competitor' status. So that's something that will be watched closely. He's almost there.

As for Anil Mehul, the draw set up very well for him also. From Paris last year on, a lot of things have been breaking his way after they really didn't for a few months leading up to that. Such is the nature of this profession. The first three rounds were yawn-fests as one might expect, even more so than usual as he didn't face a single seed. David Prieto was as good a matchup as you could have in the fourth, still good enough to potentially cause an upset. First set was tense, but it got progressively easier after that: 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-2. A good warmup for the real stage, as it were.

Julian Hammerstein was up next, having survived a five-set epic against Elder; he was the only guy to reach the quarters who was not a Top-8 seed. It looks he's set to make a little more noise this year as expected, but as usual he overplayed coming in, taking the singles title in Sydney the week before. It definitely cost him here as Mehul was the fresher player. The first two sets were a war, but Hammerstein couldn't keep up the pace and Anil advanced to the AO semis for a second year in a row, 7-6(6), 5-7, 6-2, 6-3.

There was more good news. At this level you expect two players to be waiting, and they were: but Iglar was on the other side of the draw. Bjorn Benda was next, definitely the more palatable of the two. Mehul snagged the first set, and it looked like disaster might set in after he failed to serve out the second. He rattled off five straight points to win the breaker and go up two sets to none ... but the German wasn't through. He fought back to take a close third ... and a close fourth ... and the fifth was what it should be at this stage: an all-out struggle. Both players missed chances, but at the end Mehul had a pair of match points, but couldn't break in the 12th game, but he looked the stronger player. It took two more the next time of asking, but he finally survived and moved on to his first Grand Slam final! It was the match of the tournament, 6-3, 7-6(2), 4-6, 4-6, 8-6! Uncharacteristically, Mehul pulled off the upset by having a particularly good serving day.

And of course, that meant the final against Antonin Iglar. There was more than a little hope here after he'd almost knocked him off in the WTC a few weeks ago. Iglar had looked vulnerable against the Russians in this tournament, having to rally from down two sets to one against Goncharenko in the fourth round, then having Topolski do everything but take a second-set tiebreak that he eventually won by an epic 15-13 count. Had that gone the other way, and there were a number of set points on Topolski's serve that could have made it do so, who knows what happens in that much. But he survived.

Unfortunately, it was pretty anticlimactic. No signs of such vulnerability were to be found. To the contrary, Iglar had one of those days. He was in the zone, as they say, and put forward a display of some of the best tennis that has ever been played. I don't think there are five players, if that many, in the history of the game who could have threatened him on this day. Mehul was able to stay with him for about half of the second set, and that was it. The final was 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, with the Czech repeating after converting six of seven break chances(the one miss was among Anil's four aces). A tough fall, but when he plays at that level there's nothing you can do but shake his hand and try again next time. Still, a fantastic run here obviously that gets the year off to a great start, but tough to reach the pinnacle and not get it done. Who knows how many, if any even, more Slam finals he will get a chance at? As for Iglar, he's now matched Benda in Slams(4), Tour Finals(1), and Masters(6); not in weeks at #1 but in another year he'll surpass him in that to. The winning streak now stands at a ridiculous 51 consecutive matches. That seems unlikely to fall before the clay season.

Prakash Mooljee reached the semis in Lima, winning in doubles, and with that will have a prolonged period on the practice courts, probably close to two months. Coming up next is the second round of the WTC against top-ranked and defending world champion Spain.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group 2 Second Round
Spain vs. Sri Lanka, Grass

Monday

It all went according to plan until Girish Girsh decided not to cooperate in the third set, taking a long tiebreak from world no. 3 David Almagro. Order was restored, but it was still a nice shot across the bow that they aren't invulnerable. Spain takes the lead in the opening rubber, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(7), 6-0.

Tuesday

It looked closer than it actually was, but either way Mehul dropped David Alvarez in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6(3), 6-3. He only lost his serve once, but it nearly cost him the middle set.

Wednesday

There's a reason Spain is #1. We met that reason today. There are other countries with top singles players, but none that boast as an ace in the hole the top doubles pairing in the world. Girsh and Mehul have done surprisingly well in doubles since forming up last fall, but they got blasted by M. Serrano/J. Carrera, 6-2, 6-0, 6-1. Ouch.

Thursday

On the brink of elimination, Anil Mehul met up with Almagro in the marquee singles matchup of this tie. it certainly lived up to the expectations. He looked headed for a close loss after winning the first set, but a good tiebreak in the fourth sent the match to a decider. Mehul snatched an early break but couldn't hold it, and momentum swung back and forth a few times. In an ending eerily similar to last week's match against Benda, Anil finally broke through for an epic triumph, 7-5, 5-7, 3-6, 7-6(3), 10-8!! Almagro blasted 23 aces to 15 for Mehul, but the rest of the time he couldn't make the tactics work. Only three points separated them at the end.

An interesting side note here: epic matches like this and the Benda encounter really provide a nice bonus to experience. This match alone was worth as much as a decent practice week(singles and doubles combined). Being in the thick of things for best-of-five struggles against other top players is a big boost: not a huge amount compared to a whole year, but when there's a small margin for improving enough to offset aging, anything that can be added is vital.

Friday

So like the first round against the Czechs, it was tied at 2 heading into the final rubber. Girsh was a monstrous underdog against Alvarez, but taking a set from Almagro in the opener served notice that it wasn't completely a foregone conclusion. If he pulled the upset somehow, we'd be very much alive in this year's top level. Neither player had much of an ace count, but Alvarez had much better placement and variety on his serve and maintained a steady advantage with a focused effort, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4.

Spain defeats Sri Lanka, 3-2!!

So that was that. Spain and the Czech Republic clinch advancement from our group. Mexico will be up next, with the winner avoiding the need to stay up via a relegation playoff, and there will be more focus the rest of the year on individual accomplishments. Interestingly, Sri Lanka still moves up another spot and very slightly in the points to 24th in the world. I'm not sure exactly how it works, but points given are based to some degree on the opponent. Apparently even a close loss against the top-ranked Spaniards was enough to slightly raise our stock.

Coming Up

It's time now for the first significant break of the year. For the next month, all three players I track in terms of tournaments will be on the practice courts. We'll next see them in competition in early March at Indian Wells and Miami.

[Brian Swartz]

February/March

As expected, I have nothing to report here. So basically this is an update to update everyone with the information that there is no update :). This is due to the fact that the last month was a solid training block for everyone.

We are on the cusp of Indian Wells, with Miami and the third round of the WTC to follow as Q1 finishes up. Everybody will be in action somewhere in the next couple of weeks, at all different levels of competition, so there will be actual events and tournaments for me to write about next time.

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells Masters

After cruising through the early rounds, Anil Mehul faced off against Gaskell in the fourth and on this particular occasion, got more resistance than he bargained for. After losing a first-set tiebreak, he had to eke out a narrow three-set win that quite frankly he probably didn't even deserve. The American created more chances but was just 1 of 8 in break points while Mehul converted 4 of his 5. It was his third straight win in their matchups with a total count of six out of seven, but the first meeting in a year and a half. Perhaps the gap has closed some ... but he got through.

In the quarters, Perry Hogue is always a tough out and this match could have gone either was as well. After winning a close first set this time, it was Mehul's time to be comeback victim, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3. Both had 10 break chances, with Hogue converting four and Mehul only two this time.

The biggest story of the week was the continued emergence of Julian Hammerstein, who made the semifinals and knocked Goncharenko out of the Top 10. It does look as if he's progressed enough to make himself a major factor at the top of the sport this year.


Miami Masters

Once again the 4th round was Mehul's first tough match, this one against Hammerstein where he hoped to repeat his success at the Australian Open. This one was, like the encounters with Gaskell and Hogue only even more-so, a razor-close match that was essentially decided in the first set. Mehul was probably the better player on this day by the slightest of margins, but dropped a tense tiebreak and Hammerstein prevailed 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3. Total points were 99-98 and that's about how close it was. Both players were dominant on serve with only five combined break chances, and it was another good example of just how little separates most of the 'Dazzling Dozen' right now.

Overall, a bit of a disappointing few weeks here for Mehul. Drawing Hammerstein in the fourth round is unlucky, but he's had his share of fortune earlier in the year. To make these weeks a success he really needed to come through against either the Austrian or Hogue, but came up a bit short in both cases.


In Other News ...

Girish Girsh played a couple of Tier-2 challengers and won both, in Kyoto and Rimouski, taking the doubles in the latter as well. Fedor Starovoitov provided the only really stiff resistance, taking their Kyoto semifinal to three sets, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3. They met again two weeks later and it was a much more one-sided affair.

Prakash Mooljee had a successful outing at the tier-3 in Osaka, winning in both singles and doubles but it was close. The final against Yenok Abramov was fairly epic and could easily have gone the other way.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 24) -- 14,610

The streak continues. Iglar has now won a truly absurd 70 straight singles matches over the past eight months or so. That will almost certainly come to an end sometime during the clay season, but that doesn't make it any less ridiculous. I'm running out of words to describe his dominance.

2. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 26) -- 12,850

3. David Almagro(ESP, 30) -- 6,850

Almagro knocked off Benda to reach the Miami final, ensuring that he remains in third for at least a while longer.

4. Perry Hogue(USA, 26) -- 6,030

5. David Alvarez(ESP, 28) -- 5,960

6. Mick Elder(USA, 29) -- 4,740

Elder appears to be in relative free-fall. His new management is making a typical new-management kind of mistake, overplaying him criminally. It's a tempting thing to do, but in this environment all it will do is accelerate his decline.

7. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 27) -- 4,300

8. Anil Mehul(SRI, 25) -- 4,270

9. Evgeni Topolski(RUS, 27) -- 4,100

10. Julian Hammerstein(AUT, 25) -- 4,035

With two quarters and a semi in the three big events so far, Julian is showing the consistency that has eluded him the past couple of seasons. Nobody other than Iglar really wants a piece of him right now.


The bottom half of the Top 10 is really bunching up. Another down-to-the-wire fight for WTF positions could be in the offing later in the year.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 7th to 8th singles, 126th to 128th doubles. A strange start to the year: Mehul makes the AO final but drops a spot. He hasn't played badly by any stretch, but skipped Dubai where he made the final last year and couldn't produce any breakthroughs in the IW/Miami Masters as mentioned. I expect he'll stay about where he is over the clay season: last year's results were three rounds of 16 and then a QF at Roland Garros. Repeating those results would be solid for him on the dirt.


Girish Girsh -- 40th to 36th singles, 123rd to 106th doubles. A good start to the year with his first Slam wins at the AO and a pair of recent mid-level Challenger titles added. It's been a lot of matches the last month, and we may not see him on the court at all between the tie with Mexico and Roland Garros. Essentially it'll be a second off-season filled with lots of training. He continues to progress well.


Prakash Mooljee -- 66th to 67th juniors. Treading water at the beginning of the year in juniors is fine, he's had some good results and practice has been mixed. Mooljee will probably stay in Tier-3s for now most tournament weeks, as most of the Tier-2s have a couple players a bit beyond him. That may change later in the year.

Manager Ranking -- 18th to 16th, 15k to 16.5k. I was actually 15th after the AO but there's a couple of people I've been regularly jockeying for position with right about at my ranking. Meanwhile, oprice continues to push his record ever higher ...

Next up, the WTC tie with Mexico is on tap, and two weeks after that the clay season gets going with the Monte Carlo almost-a-Masters.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Level 1 Group 2: Third Round
Sri Lanka vs. Mexico, Clay

Monday: A. Mehul d. J. Gabriel, 6-0, 6-2, 6-3
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. G. Craighead, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4
Wednesday: J. Gabriel/L. Micquel d. G. Girsh/A. Mehul, 6-4, 6-2, 6-1
Thursday: A. Mehul d. G. Craighead, 6-3, 6-4, 6-1
Friday: G. Girsh d. J. Gabriel, 6-2, 6-3, 7-6(4)

Sri Lanka defeats Mexico, 4-1!

Not a lot of drama this week as all of the rubbers were determined in straight sets and all of the matches looked decisive pretty early. Mexico has a very good doubles team(15th and 16th in the world) but their singles tandem is simply not top-level quality. As expected, Sri Lanka avoids a playoff and is now done with the WTC competition until next year. A better draw is hoped for, but just as importantly is continued improvement, esp. from Girsh who hopefully will be a lot more of a threat to the top players by the time 2042 rolls around.

For the moment Sri Lanka is up two more spots to 22nd overall. We will still probably be the lowest-ranked nation in the top tier next year, but the gap continues to narrow. Mehul will be off to Monte Carlo after a week off as the clay season gets started.

[Brian Swartz]

Monte Carlo

First up for Mehul was one of the more dangerous young-ish floaters, Thiago Herrera. Their only clay meeting was at the end of last year in the WTC playoffs. This time it was closer, and he only narrowly avoided an opening upset, 6-7(2), 6-1, 7-5. 20th-ranked Anton Grimaldo of Argentina provided a similar challenge in the next round. It looked like Grimaldo might get the better of him as he served for the first set at 5-4 ... but picked the wrong time to hit a cold stretch and Mehul reeled off a shocking stretch of seven games in a row to take the match!

Then it was 13th seed John Condon(Phillipines), whom Mehul hadn't played since juniors, winning their only meeting there. Condon is an extreme clay specialist, but overplays a lot and was a bit tired coming in. He's got a fine serve, but hasn't spent nearly enough time on his baseline game. After losing a tiebreak, Mehul dominated the last two sets to advance once again.

Suddenly Anil Mehul found himself in the semifinals, a completely stunning turn of events. He was a bit fatigued at this point himself; I didn't expect to make it nearly this far, but with Benda not playing this week and Hogue getting knocked out early, the path was cleared a bit. That fatigue showed against David Almagro, who rallied after a bad first set to win 1-6, 6-2, 6-3. Still, it was a strange and very successful week: any of the the first three matches could easily have been losses, and they were exactly the kinds of wins that are needed for Mehul to have a good clay season. The chances of that are now much higher; this is his best clay result of his career to date, and the points yield is more than he got from all three clay Masters combined last year.

It'll now be a couple of weeks off before Rome & Madrid, where he'll try to at least keep up the trend of taking out the lower-ranked challengers.

[Brian Swartz]

Prakash Mooljee had another successful Tier-3 in May; thought about moving up but it was a light week with only one Tier-2 and one Tier-3 on the schedule. He was the #3 seed but still managed the title in both singles and doubles. Mooljee is hanging around in the lower 60s of the juniors rankings pretty consistently right now, and they've mostly stabilized for the year.

Meanwhile, it was an important time for Girish Girsh who is making his transition to the elite a bit earlier than planned. The intent had been to play in the Busan Challenger(Tier 1) in Korea during the Madrid Masters -- but he was ranked 32nd going in which is last ineligible spot. I.e., the Top 32 are ineligible for challengers, 33 and below can play them.

This left two suboptimal choices: play the Masters events or have cruddy practice weeks. With a 90-point win coming off in a couple weeks at the time(Fergana Tier-2 challenger last year), the Masters option offered the possibility of a chance at staying in that Top 32 and getting seeded at Roland Garros. And so the choice was made: Girsh is ready to attempt to make his move into the elite players status permanently, a move that means a major schedule change, saying good-bye to 'Challenger Hero' status based on training as much as possible, and focusing instead on maximizing performance for the business end of the larger events.

[Brian Swartz]

Madrid Masters

Girsh needed and got a favorable first-round draw against Russian qualifier Efim Lipovsky, brushing him aside easily. Marcek was up in the next round and Girsh did well to take a set before falling, 6-3, 3-6, 6-1. No shame there.

Mehul took three sets to come through against Swede Olav Birkeland in his second-round match; he's dominated that matchup with six wins in as many encounters so it was a little tougher than expected. He then routined Thiago Herrera to make the quarterfinals where David Alvarez waited. Alvarez has clearly established himself as the second-best clay player in the world the last couple of years, and so a competitive 6-4, 7-5 loss -- though it wasn't quite as close as that scoreline would indicate -- was a very credible result.


Rome Masters

It was more of the same, with Girish Girsh astonishingly drawing Lipovsky again, though this time the Russian didn't have to qualify. Switzerland's Roger Federer -- gotta love the originality of some people with the 'idol worship' names -- presently 40th in the world, was a good second-round test and Girsh passed 6-3, 7-6(4). On to the round of 16 ... where it was Marcek again. Guh. He wasn't playful this time, handing out a pair of breadsticks en route to the final as Iglar and Goncharenko would fall in his wake. A fine run for the Czech no. 2 here.

Mehul dusted off Mockler 4 & 4, Blanco in straight sets as well, and had another shot at David Almagro, who'd beaten him in the Monte Carlo semis. Another quarterfinal is a good finish, but after a 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 defeat he left the court frustrated and believing he should have won it. He won 40% of the points on Almagro's serve, but just 3 of 17 break chances and was just edged 95-93 in total points. Probably he should have won this one, but it almost certainly would have meant getting beat by Benda in the next round. The German won both Madrid & Rome to the surprise of nobody, upping his Masters total to 8, equaling Alastra and Iglar among others at that number.

Coming Up ...

Heading into Roland Garros both players are feeling good about themselves. Girsh has tied his career-high at 29th and looks secure. He lost in the first round at RG and Wimbledon last year, has no other points coming off in the interim, and since he'll be seeded this year he has the chance to start making up some ground on those ahead of him. Mehul has had a stellar clay season, by far the best of his career, and moved up a spot to a new high of 6th as Elder's free-fall continues. He'll be looking to at least equal last year's QF finish.

[Brian Swartz]

French Open

Girish Girsh had a very tough match at the outset. The opponent was Argentinian Robert Garcia(36th), one of the toughest if not the toughest unseeded 'floaters' in the draw and a clay specialist. I had Garcia slightly favored actually, which would be a disappointing result for Girsh to lose right away. After an epic first-set tiebreak, he managed to narrowly pull through, 7-6(10), 6-4, 6-4! A huge win, and one that really shows he belongs now if he can beat players like Garcia on clay.

Australia's Robert Minson provided only token resistance, but Girsh met up with Iglar in the third round. A triple-breadstick later, he was on his way home having been thoroughly dismantled by the legendary Czech. He's not near that stratosphere yet, but another third-round finish is a solid result here.

Mehul had virtual walk-overs in his first two matches, and then met up with Eric Gorritepe for the first time in some while during the third round. By this point in time it is no contest. The legend is only a shadow of his former self and took just three games. In the fourth, it was a clash of two players that rolled through their opening matches, with Viktor Goncharenko on the other side of the net. On the whole Mehul has surpassed the Russian but clay is Goncharenko's best surface relatively speaking. Even in a down year last season he made the semis here. I had this pegged as a real 'pick-em' affair that could go either way.

Unfortunately Goncharenko clearly had the upper hand in the first two sets. The third went down to a wild tiebreak with Mehul taking the first two points, then losing four straight only to save triple match point and level it! After that it went back and forth, both players with many chances to take it, eventually Goncharenko prevailing to end it in straight sets. 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(14) in the longest breaker I've yet seen. Goncharenko was much better on 2nd serve points on both ends, using his clay expertise on those occasions, while Mehul converted only 1 of 5 break chances. Overall this is a mildly disappointing result, losing a round earlier than he did last year and falling in the round of 16 after a semifinal and two quarterfinals in the clay Masters leading up to it. But still it's a very successful clay season overall.

The business end of the tournament was a bit unusual, with only three of the top 8 seeds reaching the quarterfinals. Marcel Bahana is indeed sharply on the rise this year and was there, moving up to 17th after a straight-sets loss to Iglar. Julian Hammerstein met the same fate after reaching the first Slam semi of his career, enough to vault him up to a new best of 8th as Elder tumbles out of the Top 10. The most shocking was Argentinian Max Benitez, just 31st coming in to the tournament. The 24-year-old had never surpassed the third round in a Slam before so this is, at least for now, a career-defining moment for him. He's up to 24th after making it to the final 8 and giving Alvarez a surprisingly competitive match once he got there.

During the second week at Roland Garros, Prakash Mooljee had a disappointing tier-3 outing. He exited quickly in doubles and as the 3-seed lost to top-seeded Paul Veal(GBR) in what I considered to be a very slight upset at the semifinal stage.

Coming Up ...

Mooljee will have a few weeks off still before his next event. Mehul once again got enough matches in that he'll be skipping the grass-court warmups, but Girsh will be playing his first 250 the week before Wimbledon. As always it's a short turnaround of a couple weeks in between the Slams here. Mehul slid to 7th just behind Marcek, while Girsh is back at his career-high of 29th. They'll be looking to improve on 4th and 1st-round finishes respectively from a year ago.

[Brian Swartz]

The last week of the break, Girish Girsh headed off to the UNICEF Open(250), his first tournament at that level. As the 4th seed, he expected to go fairly deep ... but was stunned 7-5, 7-6(2) in the opener by Ignacio Ortiz(ARG, 51st). Relative to reasonable expectations, it might well be the worst loss of Girsh's career; certainly it's the worst in the last couple of years. Ortiz is strong both physically and mentally, but not a grass specialist and technically speaking there is a considerable gap between them. It's a match Girsh should win at least 9 out of ten times, but he just really laid an egg here. It's a crummy way to go into the most prestigious tournament in the world, and practically speaking it was worse than just taking a practice week. No points gained, and he had to scramble to find remotely useful friendly matches for preparation.


Wimbledon

And so it was that both Mehul and Girsh needed to enter doubles in order to get their match levels up. They decided to play together -- and actually did a bit too well, not only making it through qualifiying but also winning one match in the main draw before going out in the second. This vaulted both into the Top 100 in doubles, but also swung the pendulum to the other side of being a bit overplayed. It's hard to find the right balance sometimes.

Girsh had himself a nice stroll through the first couple of matches, notably flattening up-and-coming hopeful Garreth McKuskey(USA) in the second round. David Alvarez loomed in the third, and he's really not all that special off of clay. Girsh thought himself to have a real chance, even if still an underdog, going in. Alvarez had his serve going well though, allowing just 13 points against it for a 6-3, 6-3, 7-6(3) decision. Competitive, but still Girsh looks for his first Top 10 win. A third third-round Slam result on the year shows a consistency that will eventually pay bigger dividends.

Anil Mehul had his path cleared with the good fortune to be in the same section as the shell of Mick Elder. In the first week the only seed he faced was Marcelo Herrera, and he surrendered only a half-dozen games. Quickly he moved on to his first-ever quarterfinal appearance here against Evgeni Topolski, feeling good about himself after a bit of an upset against Hogue. The Russian's serve was just good enough to keep him in it, but Mehul was clearly the better and proved it in a pair of closing tiebreaks, 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(4), 7-6(10). Tense, but a clear victor.

The semifinals found him a bit weary, and going up against Iglar. A quick result was feared, but this was not peak Iglar that showed up. The early tiebreaks went against Mehul, but he showed great fight to rally and eventually forced a classic finish. 7-6(1), 7-6(4), 6-7(2), 3-6, 10-8 was the final, an epic match that in fact he probably should have won. He put a little more consistent pressure on the Czech's service games than he himself endured, but at the most vital moments the world no. 1 was just good enough. Both players had identical 2 of 13 conversion rates on break points, leaving plenty of opportunities on the court.

Although he made the final back in Australia, this was the closest Mehul has yet come to a Slam title. The other finalist was Almagro, who he had beaten on grass in another 10-8 5th set earlier in the year. It's one of those frustrating epics where you stare at the scoreboard for a long time after it's over, not quite believing you came up short. Twice Iglar rallied from a set down, and had to go a bit further before stopping Almagro 11-9 in the 5th set of the final. Despite that, it required some 86 fewer points than the 451 in the semifinal. No question that he earned his first Wimbledon title, but Mehul had been so very close to a chance to claim it. How many more chances that good, if any, will he get to a chance at the brass ring?

There were many surprises, beginning with defending champion Bjorn Benda being stunned back in the 4th round by Goncharenko, the titlist here two years ago. Alvarez reached the quarters after failing to ever get past the third round previously, and fast-rising Marcel Bahana had his second Slam quarter on the heels of the first in Roland Garros. Meanwhile, David Almagro turned back the clock to make the final despite being closer to 31 than 30 years old. He's had quite the renaissance these last couple of years.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 24) -- 16,690

Now armed with a 5th Slam title, Iglar has made the last four finals, losing only to Benda at the FO a month ago. He's playing more against the history books right now than any contemporary.

2. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 27) -- 11,030

Benda's days a serious challenger to the #1 spot may well be over after a surprisingly early loss. He appears to be declining faster than expected, but there is still a gulf between him and the rest of the field.

3. David Almagro(ESP, 30) -- 7,370

A run to the Wimbledon final has Almagro once again stamped in a clear if distant third place.

4. Perry Hogue(USA, 27) -- 5,520

5. David Alvarez(ESP, 28) -- 5,400

Alvarez had a less fortunate clay season than the previous year, mostly due to not avoiding Benda's side of the draw as much. However, he's upped his game elsewhere, becoming a bit more versatile and showing no signs of fading.

6. Anil Mehul(SRI, 25) -- 5,110

Back in sixth after his first Wimbledon semi.

7. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 27) -- 4,630

Marcek and Mehul have distanced themselves a fair bit from the pack at the bottom of the Top 10, and are narrowing the gap with Alvarez and Hogue. Whether they can complete that chase remains to be seen.

8. Viktor Goncharenko(RUS, 28) -- 4,110

Unmistakable signs of life at RG and Wimbledon move Goncharenko back above Topolski as the top Russian in the world. It would appear that his obituary was written prematurely.

9. Evgeni Topolski(RUS, 27) -- 4,070

10. Julian Hammerstein(AUT, 25) -- 4,060

Up and down, unfocused and poorly prepared on occasion, Hammerstein has nonetheless been a quarterfinalist in the last four Slams. He remains too talented to be safely ignored.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 8th to 6th singles, 128th to 91st doubles. It was a breakout stretch in what is his worst time of the year, with only the French Open even a minor disappointment. Mehul now sets his aim higher. I expect him to improve on a subpar last year, and if he does, breaking into the Top 4 by year's end is not at all out of the question. On the whole, I believe he has turned a corner and surpassed most of his rivals. The question remains whether he is yet good enough to beat them consistently.


Girsh Girsh -- 36th to 26th singles, 106th to 87th doubles. Girsh is now firmly entrenched as an elite player, despite the disappointing loss at the UNICEF Open. He will need to do very well to even maintain his current position however, as he will be losing the points from five Challenger titles won during the second half of last year. The most immediate goal is to continue moving up to reach the Top 16, carrying with it seeding at all Masters events. Beyond that, there is the chase of Marcel Bahana. The skill gap between them is narrowing, but Bahana has been even more successful this year, already up to 15th. I'll delve more into that comparison at the end of the year.


Prakash Mooljee -- 67th to 68th juniors. Gradually he is losing ground bit by bit to his contemporaries who, while lacking Mooljee's staying power, are pushing forward to reach physical maturity first. In the long run, slow and steady tends to be more rewarding. As always we take the patient view, and more Tier-3 tournaments will likely be in the offing.


Manager Ranking -- 16th to 15th, 16.5k to 17.4k. Meanwhile, the record high of oprice continues to rise, reaching the previously unapproached level of over 57k.


Coming Up ...

The summer break is now upon us. Success has it's price in terms of the smaller events. Girsh will likely play in either Atlanta or Washington, while Mehul will have a full month off until the US hardcourt Masters start the leadup to the US Open.

[Brian Swartz]

2041 Race to the World Tour Finals

Once again we check in with the early report on where things stand:

In

Antonin Iglar -- 9440
Bjorn Benda -- 6910


Probable

David Almagro -- 4890
David Alvarez -- 4700
Anil Mehul -- 3630


Contenders

Perry Hogue -- 3000
Viktor Goncharenko -- 2985
Evgeni Topolski -- 2790
------------------------------
Cestmir Marcek -- 2760
Julian Hammerstein -- 2660


Long Shots

Pierce Gaskell -- 2030
Marcel Bahana -- 1905


Outlook

Compared to last year, much is the same, but much is not. The complete absence of Elder is striking, Prieto as well though that was more anticipated, and there is also the emergence of Bahana. With his hardcourt dominance, Iglar has already wrapped up the Race this year. Instead of being right in the thick of the fight, Mehul is several hundred points clear, although he has much work yet to do to confirm his spot. It seems very unlikely he will participate in any year-end suspense. Marcek and Hammerstein, only late curiosities last season, are very much in contention this time around. Hogue has fallen off badly, but still has a solid chance to qualify, while the Russians are once again on the verge of going either way.

[Brian Swartz]

July/August

Uneventful, except for Girish Girsh entering the Atlanta(250, H) tournament. As the 4th-seed, he got a first-round bye and then a virtual walkover against an American wild card. Then it was Milan Farkas(CZE, 39th), a meteoric player who is pretty much at his peak right now. Farkas is in the just good enough to be dangerous category for Girsh, a player he should definitely beat but couldn't be completely overlooked. After taking the first set, he succumbed to Farkas taking most of the big points and serving out of his mind. The final was 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.

With this, Girsh is unquestionably in a big slump. He hasn't had a good win in about two months, with both of his Wimbledon victories coming against highly inferior competition, and very bad losses both here and at UNICEF. It's not a moment to panic or anything, he'll break out of it eventually I'm sure, but he's certainly squandering some good opportunities right now. Sometime in the last couple of weeks he also hit the point where he is now past physical maturity, seeing the very first barely-noticeable signs of decline, though he'll be able to improve technically enough to still get better for several more years of course. The rate of improvement will now begin to slow, and the gravy train is starting to pull out from the station, as it were.

The Canada Masters is just underway(Sunday qualifying as I write this) with Cincinatti to follow the week after. Girsh and Mehul are both playing of course, with Anil hoping to do better than last year's round of 16 exits in both events while Girish makes his debuts with the goal of getting some points to offset three challenger titles that will be dropping off in the next six weeks. Mooljee is in Sokhumi, Georgia, for his latest Tier-3 outing as well this week.

[Brian Swartz]

Canada Masters

Girsh had a somewhat unlucky draw, going up against 13th-seed David Prieto in the first round. Still, at this stage of their respective careers, it should be an even match, maybe the slightest edge even to Girsh. Didn't work out that way, with a fairly one-sided 6-4, 6-3 defeat with the outcome never really in doubt. His slump continues; he's lost the first match in three of his last four events(Wimbledon the exception).

Mehul fared better, of course, with a first-round bye. It was pretty much a cake early draw with a qualifier and then Swede 16th-seed Vito Bonamoni in the third. He had a hard time getting to the veteran's serve, but was never really threatened despite a tight 7-5, 6-4 scoreline. In the quarters Hogue awaited, having won their last four meetings going back over a year. He took the first set, but Mehul reversed that with a very strong comeback, winning 4-6, 6-1, 6-2! At the same time, Hammerstein shocked Iglar, the no. 1's first hardcourt loss in a year and a half!!

That set up an interesting semifinal with Mehul's Austrian shadow. His spectacular return game reversed the usual result, a pretty quick straight-set win to reach the final against Benda. They hadn't played since their epic semifinal at the Australian, and this one didn't last as long. All week long Anil Mehul has returned and rallied brilliantly, and that continued. After a tight first set he raced home for a 7-5, 6-2 victory, earning a stunning first Masters Shield here!! Throughout the tournament he won at least 42% of his return points, even going up against some of the very best servers in the game.

This is a huge step beyond his 250 in Stockholm last year and the 500 crown in Japan the year before that. At this level all the best are here, so to come through shows he has really arrived at the top. It also launched him to a new career-high of #4 in the rankings. The feeling over the spring clay season that he had really turned a corner was definitely validated here -- but he's a little tired now.


Cincinatti Masters

Girish Girsh pretty much had his fate chosen for him. Qualifier Arnaldo Barranco of Peru took just four games as he managed to avoid another first-round setback at least, but then Hogue was a little too much in a straight-sets second-round loss.

Mehul's first challenge came from Marcek in the quarterfinals. Like the matchup with Hogue the previous week, he dropped the first set only to come back for the win, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4. Already a bit tired, he edged ahead in their H2H matchup, still a perfect 3-0 against the Czech no. 2 on hardcourts but winless on the dirt.

His fine run was unceremoniously ended by Iglar, who was clearly disappointed by having lost the previous week and reminded everyone who is the boss in a comprehensive straight-sets bludgeoning. Hogue took a set off him in the final but was served up a third-set breadstick as a further reminder.


Coming Up ...

The final Slam of the year, the US Open, will see Mehul go in with a full head of steam. There are some strange goings-on with Almagro & Topolski not playing the last couple of weeks. They've missed big events before, but not like this: neither has been seen in the several weeks since Wimbledon. It appears their manager might be MIA. If the pair is gone for good, it'll certainly dilute the competition at the top, which would be a shame -- both still had something to give tennis. If Almagro doesn't play in Flushing Meadows, Mehul is almost certain to rise to the #3 spot, though that certainly wouldn't be the preferred way to do it. That's not a real goal for him anyway. Third or fourth doesn't matter for seeding, and at 30 Almagro's days are numbered. The real next target is catching Benda in the #2 spot, and now that he has a Masters Shield to his name, giving himself as many chances as possible to grasp a Slam champion's trophy.

Girsh meanwhile is simply looking to get out of his current funk. The transition to playing top players week in and week out has proved difficult, maybe because he came to it a bit sooner, I don't know. There's no major danger in terms of his long-term, but the sooner he snaps out of it and finds his A game again the better of he'll be.

Prakash Mooljee lost in the Sokhumi semis in doubles, and in the final to the much higher-ranked top seed Khasan Zhakirvo(UZB). He'll be playing a tier-2 next week, with the top players being at the junior USO there wouldn't be many quality practice partners to be had anyway.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm not sure what it is about the USO that is cursed or something. This is at least the second year in a row that a RL work crisis of some sort has prevented me getting the update up in a timely fashion. Once again it's a week late in game terms, so the World Team Cup QF -- though not as important this year with Sri Lanka not participating -- which take place the week after have already been completed.

US Open

As is my custom we begin with Girsh Girsh, who did not play here last year, electing to take the title in the tier-3 Bangkok Challenger. The year before he lost in the first round, so he comes in seeking his first win at Flushing Meadows. As the 25th-seed, Girsh dropped just a single game against an American wild-card to get started. With John Condon, a clay specialist not expected to do well here anyway, the highest seed to lose in the first round his path was cleared and there were no challenges all the way through to the fourth round, already the furthest progression he's yet made in a Slam event!

There awaited Anil Mehul, whose lone resistance had come from Bonamoni and that only in one tight set. I knew it would happen eventually; Mehul and Girsh in a competitive match. They've played in practice events a few times recently, and contested hundreds of friendly matches, especially over the past year or so as they've become each other's most useful hitting partners. In recent months, Girsh has taken a number of sets and pushed Mehul on many occasions, but he has never won any of these matches. Not once. The gap between the players, at this point, is such that Girsh has a very small chance if everything goes his way, just barely good enough to be a danger.

This was Girsh's first round of 16 appearance at a major event, while Mehul would equal last year's QF finish if he won as expected. The first set went his way easily, but Girsh grabbed an early break in the second and, more surprisingly, held onto it. The third was very competitive as well, but the younger player double-faulted on the first set point against him, and Mehul seized the momentum to finish off the match. 6-2, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 was the final.

In the quarters, a 10th meeting with Julian Hammerstein awaited. In the past couple of years, neither player has won two in a row and Mehul took the last one in the Canada semis just a few weeks ago. That didn't stop him from taking a good first set, and he looked to be in control of the second as well. Serving at 5-4, 30-0, just two points away from a 2-0 sets lead, he completely fell apart. A few minutes later, he'd dropped three straight games and the set to let Hammerstein level the match. A tense third had no breaks and went to a tiebreak. Back and forth it went, Mehul had a set point on Hammerstein's serve but didn't convert, then couldn't hold him off when the tables were flipped. After falling behind an early break in the fourth, he had only one chance to break back and couldn't get it done. Hammerstein advances in a tough loss for Mehul, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(8), 6-4.

Hammerstein's serve was ridiculous -- 33 aces, the most Mehul has ever surrendered -- and he converted 4 of 7 with Mehul only getting 3 breaks despite nearly twice the chances(13). The Austrian had to serve 27 more points as Mehul put more pressure on his serve, winning nearly half of the returns he put in play, but it wasn't enough. As much as it ever has been, the mental edge of the Austrian was definitely shown here. A tight and high-quality match. Iglar awaited regardless, so at least it is not a loss of huge consequence. In their personal rivalry, Mehul and Hammerstein have now split 8 hard-court meetings, with the Austrian holding the overall edge 6-4 due to taking both clay encounters. The overall trend is on Mehul's side, but I don't think he has quite yet made up the gap between them. It's definitely an entertaining matchup to watch as both continue to rise and you never know who will when they match up.

On the other side of the bracket, Goncharenko stunned Benda in straight sets while Alvarez outlasted Hogue in five, setting up a very surprising matchup. Neither had made the semis here before -- not even the quarters for Alvarez -- and one would be an underdog finalist! Antonin Iglar went on to win the title as predicted, never dropping a set though Goncharenko did force him to one tough tiebreak in the final.

In Other News

At the Pancevo Tier-2, Prakash Mooljee did well in taking the doubles crown and making it to the final in singles. Zakirov beat him again there but it was his best result to date.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(24, CZE) -- 15,870

An early loss in Canada was a bit disappointing, but Iglar has clearly righted the ship. His third straight US Open title -- with more definitely anticipated -- gives him 6 Slams, one more than Benda and equalling Alastra. His 9 Masters Shields are one more than either as well, making him as least as accomplished a player as the game has seen since Eric Gorritepe's reign ended. And of course, he's still at least a year, probably somewhat more than that away from even reaching his peak.

2. Bjorn Benda(27, DEU) -- 10,690

He'll be the clear #2 at least well into next year, but the writing is on the wall; off of clay, he's clearly not the force he was a season or two ago.

3. Anil Mehul(25, SRI) -- 6,200

Leapfrogging the absent Almagro, he reaches a new career high -- but moving up from here is a tall order.

4. David Alvarez(28, ESP) -- 6,200

Not sure what the tiebreaker is here. Alvarez continues to surprise, having diversified his game to produce better consistent hardcourt results than I thought he would achieve.

5. David Almagro(30, ESP) -- 5,950

If he comes back to the game he can still be a significant factor, but at his age that window is rapidly closing.

6. Perry Hogue(27, USA) -- 5,630

Hogue's success has always been based on being a good enough hardcourt player to have great results there balance out weaknesses elsewhere. He was a finalist in Cincinatti, proving that he still has what it takes to produce at least on occasion.

7. Viktor Goncharenko(28, RUS) -- 5,040

I had him buried before the season, and here he comes back again. Goncharenko was a USO finalist, along with a semi in Wimbledon and consistent Masters results. A bit of a career renaissance here has once again made him into a player that is not safely overlooked.

8. Cestmir Marcek(27, CZE) -- 4,760

The question here is whether Marcek has peaked. His rise appeared to stall over the summer, but after producting his first-ever Slam quarterfinal he may yet have more to say.

9. Julian Hammerstein(25, AUT) -- 4,600

Two semis and two quarters in the Slams this year: Hammerstein has been more consistent this season, and could yet move up significantly before it ends.

10. Evgeni Topolski(27, RUS) -- 3,170

Ever the underachiever, Topolski's absence has him about to tumble out of the Top 10.


There's not a huge gap right now in the 3rd-9th positions, which have separated themselves by a big margin from those following. Pretty much what I expected early in the year in general, but with specific players Goncharenko moving back up and Elder/Almagro/Topolski essentially surrendering was not expected.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 6th to 3rd singles, 91st to 78th doubles. A strong push continues, and now Mehul has a new target. It will take a while, but the only way he can really improve himself is to unseat Benda at #2. That means consistently making at least the semis at the big events. At a minimum, he needs to fight off close challengers to stay in the Top 4 but I think he should be able to accomplish that with relatively little difficulty. As he approaches his peak, Mehul is running out of realistic targets for improvement with Iglar as ever out of reach. He'll have the entire month off between now and Shanghai as he played more matches than expected, especially at Canada.


Girish Girsh -- 26th to 23rd singles, 87th to 73rd doubles. A career-best run at the USO masks a lot of the summer struggles for Girsh, moving him up to a new personal high. He didn't have to beat anyone good there though, it just sort of opened up for him with a good draw. Nothing wrong with that, but there are still concerns about his recent play at least in the short term. As more challenger and WTC results from last year are lost, I expect him to maintain a spot somewhere in the 20s depending on how he does towards the end of the season, with an eye towards taking another step forward in the new year. He'll have another tournament, probably a 250, between now and Shanghai.


Prakash Mooljee -- 68th to 50th juniors. Pancevo gave him his first significant step forward this year, though he'll be taking several weeks off now to rest and train. He's almost-but-not-quite there in terms of moving up to Tier-2s consistently, and also in terms of being ready to play in some Amateur-level events. Probably by next year.


Manager Ranking -- 15th to 12th, 17.4k to 18.4k. I'm almost 2k behind the next manager above me so the best I can do is really stay here for a while and close the gap. oprice has set another record, up over 59k now, more than his closest two competitors combined.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-USO Edition

With Almagro and Topolski vanishing, the picture has changed somewhat Thankfully, this year Mehul will not need to deal with any drama, and frankly it looks like there may well not be any at all ...

In

Antonin Iglar -- 12,620
Bjorn Benda -- 8,830


Probable

David Alvarez -- 5,780
Anil Mehul -- 5,280
David Almagro -- 5,090
Viktor Goncharenko -- 4,635
Julian Hammerstein -- 3,920
Cestmir Marcek -- 3,750


Long Shots

**None**

Topolski is already completely off the radar, and none of the other hopefuls have kept pace either. Barring some miraculous turnaround somewhere, the field is basically set here, only the final order remains to be determined. Never in my memory has the gap between the haves and have-nots been so obvious and pronounced. Hammerstein and Marcek would be first-timers, and Goncharenko didn't make the field last year either.

[Brian Swartz]

September

Girish Girsh was the only player in action, heading to Kuala Lumpur for the Malaysian Open(250), where he was seeded second. It was a weak field, and he didn't lose a set in crashing through to his first professional title, a full year faster than Mehul managed that feat! It was less impressive than it sounds, however. His final opponent was the only one worth mentioning, 14th-ranked John Condon. Condon is very strong and has an elite serve, but also huge weaknesses in foot speed and baseline play. Both against him and in the semifinal, Girsh's mental strength got him through fairly easily but timing and technique still seemed off. It was a 6-3, 6-4 scoreline against Condon, with the Filipino failing on all eight break chances. Still a good success obviously, moving him back up to his high of 23rd and providing a points buffer against the two end-of-the-year Challengers that he will shortly lose, but there wasn't much to evidence breaking out of his slump.

And so, the tour moves on to Shanghai, the last big hardcourt tournament of the year.

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

Girish Girsh easily stormed through a qualifier in the first round ... and then drew Mehul in the second. They hadn't played a competitive match once, and now a second time in six weeks. Go figure. This time it wasn't as close, 6-1, 6-4.

Anil Mehul's next match was even easier, and then in the quarters he expected Marcek but instead got American Radek Smitala. The unseeded 24-year-old was the surprise quarterfinalist of the tournament. He put up a fight, but Mehul pushed him aside 7-6(2), 6-3. Again his path was cleared as Iglar was supposed to be next, but as in Canada was an upset victim, this time of Perry Hogue in a third-set tiebreak. With his immensely high standards, this fall now has to be a disappointment. They played a strange semi-final that went the distance though none of the sets was close. Mehul advanced 6-1, 2-6, 6-2. It's his second straight win over Hogue on the American's preferred surface: perhaps he's close to mastering him after four straight losses prior.

This time there was no upset on the other side, with Benda waiting and looking very sharp. Mehul was under pressure immediately in the final, but escaped a break point and avoided going down early. There would be only two breaks in the entire match, one each way. A pair of nearly-identical tiebreaks later, he claimed his second Masters Shield with a 7-6(3), 7-6(3) victory, beating Benda for the third time in as many chances this year, though all were on hardcourt. This victory essentially secures the year-end #3 for him, and confirms what his path is now: chasing down the German, bit by bit. With a gap that is still more than four thousand points, it'll be a long chase.

Coming Up ...

Now the hectic finish of the short indoor season is upon us. Mehul will take next week off, while Girsh heads to the Kremlin Cup(250) in Moscow. Both will probably play in one of the 500s the week after, and then the Paris Masters. Girsh needs to get in more matches here, while Mehul has more leeway especially with the tour finals in Finland coming at the end of November. With Sri Lanka having been knocked out of the WTC for the year, the usual scramble to get enough match play for optimal off-season training is a larger goal than any particular points gain.

[Brian Swartz]

Race To Finland
Two weeks Left

I made a rather stunning error with the last Race standings, when I pronounced it over. It seems I somehow didn't include Hogue at all. Ahem. So things are not as simple as they were then reported to be. Here's where we are now, heading into the week before Paris.

In

Antonin Iglar -- 12750
Bjorn Benda -- 9780
Anil Mehul -- 6210
David Alvarez -- 5910

Mehul is still clear at least as mentioned; he booked his spot with the Shanghai title.


Probable

David Almagro -- 5040
Viktor Goncharenko -- 5015
Perry Hogue -- 4860

It would require a disaster for any of these three to make it, but it's not official yet.


Contenders

Cestmir Marcek -- 3960
-------------------------------
Julian Hammerstein -- 3920

It looks like this is the real contest, only it isn't much of one. Hammerstein is focusing on doubles now. He's not even playing singles in Paris and skipped Shanghai as well -- though he's still scheduled to play both in next year's Australian Open. Still, if this holds up, Marcek pretty much gets the final spot by default. Unless ...


Long Shots

Pierce Gaskell -- 3255

Coming out of nowhere, Gaskell won the Japan Open and then made the semis in Shanghai. He still needs a miracle but he's put himself back in the conversation. He's taking this week off, which means he pretty much needs to win Paris to make it happen. Possible, but extremely unlikely.

[Brian Swartz]

October

Only a two-week break between Shanghai and Paris, but boy is there always a lot going on. The first week Mehul was off, but Girsh was off to the Kremlin Cup(250). It was an easy trip for him, with a blast down memory lane as he knocked off Fabian Graff in the quarters, then easily took care of the shell of what used to be Mick Elder in the semis. The final opponent was Viktor Goncharenko, at least an equal to Girsh overall but indoors I thought he had a good chance of the upset. It didn't work out that way, a 6-3, 7-6(4) score that was more one-sided in favor of the Russian than that score would indicate. Fairly disappointing that, but another good result even if he didn't have to beat anybody good to achieve it.

Prakash Mooljee headed off to Tokyo, a Tier-3 during a strange week that didn't have any larger events. Because of that, a tougher field was feared but one of the top players pulled out at the last minute and he ended up the second seed. It was a pretty easy run to a singles title and runner-up in doubles. He'll probably have only one more tournament this year.

The following week, Mehul and Girsh were both in action. The younger player was at the Swiss Indoors(500), while the older played at Valencia(500), both indoor events. Girsh reached the semis against top-seeded Perry Hogue, a better player than Goncharenko but even so the match was closer. It was the first real sign of life from him since the spring, but still a loss, 6-4, 7-6(4). He was just a little short of being able to pull it off ... and then Hogue lost to unseeded Roger Federer in the final. Figures.

Mehul expected to yawn his way through, but was stunned in the final going for his second straight title and 10th straight win. David Alvarez beat him 7-5, 2-6, 6-3. Overall Mehul was better but might have taken it too lightly: on an indoor court Alvarez should not be serious competition for him, but the Spaniard was the more consistent player and won more of the big moments. It was exactly the kind of loss that could derail his push to knock Benda out of the #2 spot, and probably his worst defeat of the year.

Coming Up

Naturally it's the Paris Masters now, with Girsh making his debut and seeded no less, 15th after his last couple weeks have moved him up a bit. It will be his last tournament of the year. Mehul made the semis last year and his goal is at least to make the final. Iglar is the only player who should beat him indoors, but as we have seen all over the place this fall, nobody is invincible if they don't bring their best tennis.

The Race is also not over, it seems. Hammerstein changed his mind and is playing here, so if he goes further than Marcek he should get the last spot. Once again it will come down to the wire.

Real-Time Update:

Both made it through their first matches(second round). In the round of 16 both are favored, with Marcek taking on Groeneveldt, and Hammerstein meeting unseeded David Prieto(how times change for that to happen). Mehul should have a walk against Andres Blanco, while Girsh has a very interesting matchup with Pierce Gaskell, who has not yet been eliminated either but he needs to take the title and have both of the other contenders lose before the semis so his chances are extremely small.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters
The Rest of the Story ...

Round of 16

As I left off yesterday, it was the third round about to commence. Mehul had a lazy service game to force a tiebreak against Blanco, but game through in straight sets. Girsh got off to a great start against Gaskell, but he's pretty match-worn at this point and it showed as the determined American fought back for a 1-6, 6-3, 6-1 final. No shame in losing to a more prepared, desperate 10th-ranked player in three, that's for certain. He'll be in the teens after this and probably drop down to the low 20s by the end of the year, pretty darn good considering the slump. It's nearly two months off for him now, until WTC group play opens after the first of the year. He was 38-18 on the year, the tougher competition showing in the fact that he'd never lost more than 13 matches previously. The long break might be just want he needs to enter the next season roaring. I can only hope.

So with Gaskell advancing that increased the pressure on the other two. I expected them both to win, but Marcek was fairly stunning knocked off by Groeneveldt with a breadstick no less in the decisive set, and that put Hammerstein in the driver's seat if he won. He did so, a competitive straight-sets win over Prieto. That meant if the Austrian upset Benda in the quarters, or if Gaskell didn't win the tournament, he was in. Really good odds those, but not certain yet.


Quarterfinals

Mehul was up against Hogue here, and beat him soundly although he lost a tight second set to extend it to three. Gaskell still wouldn't give up, taking down Alvarez 4 & 4, with Benda putting away Hammerstein by the same score. As a result, the Race was not yet over; Gaskell could still pull off the miracle if he won the title. It was all on his racket.


Semifinals

Both matches were of interest to me with those developments in mind. Gaskell had the monstrous task of trying to beat Iglar to keep his hopes alive, and he played a heck of a first but still lost in a tiebreak. Clearly he broke mentally at that point, meekly surrendering 7-6(4), 6-0. A fine run, but he comes up short.

Mehul then was up against Benda, looking for a fourth straight win against him with the H2H tied at 5-all going in. He was the better player, out-acing one of the game's elite servers 19-9, requiring the German to play 17 more points on his serve, taking the points total 102-98. And still losing, 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4. This was not like the Alvarez match last week; Anil played pretty well. He had more break chances as well(7-2), but didn't save either as both players broke twice and the world no. 2 took the vital middle-set breaker. A bitter pill to swallow, it was really Benda's championship experience and nothing else that allowed him to steal this one; it keeps Mehul that much further away, preventing him from making further gains in the rankings this week.

And so that was that.

Final

Competitive straight sets for Iglar. Naturally. This one is worth noting as it's his 10th Masters Shield, tying him for 10th all-time. He'll doubtless be moving considerably up that list by the end of next year.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to Finland
Final Standings

Here's how it looks with two weeks of preparation left but the field completed:

Antonin Iglar -- 13750

No doubt for some time who'd be #1.

Bjorn Benda -- 10380

Another excellent year, and no drama about the runner-up this season either.

Anil Mehul -- 6870
David Alvarez -- 6290

It's possible, though quite unlikely, that Mehul could lose the #3 spot. He and Alvarez will finish third and fourth though barring something highly unusual, and the difference means little in the grand scheme of things. He'll be stewing on that loss to Benda in the meantime, and will assuredly have a chance to get a bit of payback in Finland. It's a big opportunity to gain ground on the #2 spot, an opportunity that must not be wasted.

Perry Hogue -- 5160
David Almagro -- 5040
Viktor Goncharenko -- 5015

There's still no sign of Almagro's manager, so the Tour Finals may well be the last event he plays other than possible a WTC tie or two next year. He's so out of match shape that he will essentially be a walkover. A shame, sad way to go out for a fine player. Hogue and Goncharenko can jockey for position here but neither is likely to move up or down a whole lot.

Julian Hammerstein -- 4100
--------------------------------
Cestmir Marcek -- 4050
Pierce Gaskell -- 3615

Hammerstein just makes it in due to Marcek's early demise in Paris. Gaskell's late surge comes up short, but he'll be back next year. It's the second year in a row Marcek has been the best player left out, and it appears his career apex has passed. He may not get another chance, and the Austrian, despite highly questionable management, sneaks in for his debut.

However ...

Or so it seems. This may be a case where an intermittent, but just enough to be annoying, bug gums up the works. You see, every once in a while some of the small events are not tallied quite properly, I've made mention of this before. In this case, due to such an occurrence, Marcek is actually still listed as being 200 points ahead of Hammerstein. So, despite everything else that's been mentioned, if that calculation doesn't 'correct' -- I've checked it multiple times and verified my numbers -- we will have some controversy with Marcek making it in incorrectly.

[Brian Swartz]

Breaking News

It is the week before Finland yet, but it has been announced that the 2042 Summer Olympics will be held in the United States. A hardcourt venue has been chosen, though precise details beyond that are not yet publicized. As usual, the event will be held next August, the week before the Canada Masters. Mehul has a legitimate chance at a medal, and both he and Girsh definitely plan to represent Sri Lanka there.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals

Sometimes truth really is stranger than fiction. This year's finale was kind of like that. It definitely didn't follow the script. To begin with, Marcek was indeed given the last spot he really didn't earn, despite the protests of the Austrians on behalf of Hammerstein. As for Anil Mehul, he was unfavorably drawn in Iglar's group, but the other two were the last pair in the field, Marcek and Iglar. The other side had Benda and most of the middling players.

After easily dousing Marcek in his opener, he faced the Czech legend with Benda having won his first two on the other side and looking a cinch to take that group as expected. At the end of a tight first set, Mehul was down 5-2 in the tiebreaker and it looked like the usual result -- a competitive effort but not good enough. He rallied though, even surviving a set point on Iglar's serve to stunningly take the breaker. After losing the second set, he broke him for the first time in eighth game of the final set, cruising home at that point for the upset, 7-6(8), 3-6, 6-3! The match broke a string of five straight defeats dating back almost a year and a half, with his last win in the matchup coming at the 2040 French Open. The overall head-to-head count is still 10-4 against him, but this win essentially guaranteed he would advance.

After dusting off Almagro who, as feared, might as well not have been here -- he scored only four games combined in his three matches here -- Mehul figured to go up against whoever won the Hogue/Alvarez match on the last day of the group stage. He figured wrong. Benda was upset by previously winless Goncharenko, in a third-set tiebreak no less, leaving him and Perry Hogue both tied atop the other group; and Hogue lost fewer sets, giving him the tiebreaker.

It seemed Mehul was destined then to meet Benda in the semis, a shot at revenge for the Paris defeat and a rematch of last year's encounter here as well. This time he made very sure of his victory, dominating the German 6-2, 6-4, and it could have been worse; he was only 3 of 14 on break chances, but didn't surrender a single one. There was no question on this day.

That meant a rematch with Iglar in the final. This time Mehul was not so fortunate. He was competitive and it was close, but while he actually put a little more pressure on the Czech's serve overall, his own serve was less consistent and that cost him especially after going up a break in the second set. In the end it was a close straight-sets loss, 6-4, 6-4; he'd won the first meeting but the championship here goes to Antonin Iglar for the second straight year. Only four players have won it three or more times, but Mehul will hopefully have a lot to say about this event in the future as well.

Still it was a fine run, undefeated until that close loss in the final, and closing the gap a bit more on Benda in the #2 spot. A good finish to the year.

Coming Up

A month off until the start of the year, with the WTC wrapping up. Spain faces the Czech Republic for the second straight year to determine the champion, and then the playoffs the week following that. For my players, it's time to make preparations and train for the year that is to come. It's been another successful season, but many goals remain unreached as of yet ...

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Wrap-Up

Spain and the Czech Republic met for the second straight year in the finals, both of them having to face stern tests. Germany, Russia, and the US all came within a single win of knocking one of them out. This year, it was the Czechs taking home the trophy, 3-2, as Almagro contributed very little. It was the first title ever for them, and puts them just a hair behind the Spaniards in the overall rankings at #2.

The following week, there were some interesting playoff matchups as well:

** Switzerland(21st) vs. Argentina(5th) -- Both nations are looking forward to their past, with Bonamoni on the decline for the Swiss and Alastra no longer a singles competitor for Argentina. The rankings for the singles players are extremely close, and they split their rubbers, but Alastra's doubles team got the job done and Argentina stays while Switzerland is relegated in a tight tie, 3-2.

** Denmark(14th) vs. Italy(7th) -- Denmark has narrowly avoided relegation once already since making it up to Level 1 a couple years ago. Led by Jens Petersen(29th, age 26), they appear to be about at their peak. Despite their stature, the Italians are trying to make a rebound behind a pair of decent borderline players(mid-30s rankings) in Kinczllers and El Brazi. It was just a couple years ago that they barely avoided relegation to the third tier. This was another very competitive tie, with two rubbers going the full five-set distance and Denmark holding off the challengers, 3-2.

** Mexico(17th) vs. Ireland(11th) -- Mexico's been at the top level for a while but has not seen much success, while the Irish are trying to make it back up, having lost a relegation tie 3-2 against Serbia only just last year. In the rankings the Irish players look better, and a 4-1 Mexico win here was pretty surprising.

** New Zealand(24th) vs. Peru(8th) -- After struggling in Level 2 for a while now, this is New Zealand's first attempt to move up, while Peru was knocked down a couple of years ago and only a poor-luck matchup against us kept them down last year. The Herreras are now nearing their best years, and 8th is probably about right for the Peruvians: they are definitely a nation with the quality to be in the top tier. They beat NZ in the Level 2 final, and even easier here, a 5-0 blanking.

2042 Preview

Switzerland goes down while Peru comes up, a bit of tough luck for the former while Peru makes the top level a little better. They definitely should be here.

Sri Lanka did in fact get a better draw as hoped. We're in Group 4, headed by Spain which is certainly no favor after what happened last year. They may not be as good this year with Almagro on his way out, but they still have Alvarez and Bahana is ready to make his presence felt. They should still be more than a match for us. The other two are Peru(8th) and the Phillipines(10th), neither of which figure to cause any major trouble. Mehul should be able to handle anybody they have, with Girsh getting at least one win to clinch matters.

Sri Lanka's WTC involvement should last a little longer this year; we should be able to make it out of the group stage at least. If we do, a lot will depend on the matchups at that point, and how much Girsh has progressed. This year was Sri Lanka's smallest rise so far, from 26th to 22nd overall as we bowed out after the group stage for the first time. Hopefully next year we can at least crack the Top 20.

[Brian Swartz]

2041 Top Ten Rankings(Final)

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 25) -- 15,050

Iglar was merely human last year after a campaign for the record books in 2040. There's no question who is the top dog or king of the hardcourts though. He'll be starting to make his way up the shortlist of most of the individual all-time achievements this year, with 6 Slam titles, 10 Masters, and 58 weeks at #1, there's no end in sight for the near-term and there's little question he adds significantly to those numbers.

2. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 27) -- 10,530

The first signs of decline were seen for the German former champion. His dominance on clay remains intact, but for how much longer? Probably another go at least, but the clock is ticking and he's much less of a reliable force off the dirt than he was even one year previous.

3. Anil Mehul(SRI, 25) -- 7,720

With his first two Masters titles and finals at the WTF and Australian Open, Mehul took another step forward and eventually distanced himself from the rest of the field as a clear if still distant #3. One of the big questions for the new year is how long it will take for him to chase down Benda.

4. David Alvarez(ESP, 29) -- 6,490

Alvarez broadened his impact beyond clay this year, showing much more consistency and potency than before on other surfaces. He briefly reached the #3 spot and was a surprise, but I don't see him having much more to give. We've understimated him before, but it's difficult to see how he rises beyond his current station with everyone in front of him both younger and more talented. He's had a very fine run the last few years though, and should still be a significant force.

5. Perry Hogue(USA, 27) -- 5,560

No longer able to be a consistent threat even on his favored hardcourts to the best players, Hogue is just trying to hold on as long as he can now. He is clearly on the downside of his career.

6. Viktor Goncharenko(RUS, 28) -- 5,365

Goncharenko is a yo-yo. He plays quite well for several months, then disappears largely for a year, then comes back ... I'm not sure how much is left. He could fall out of the Top 10 again, or he could be at the edge of the Top 5 if he can repeat performances like his run this past year to the USO final.

7. David Almagro(ESP, 31) -- 4,900

There is no indication yet that Almagro is anything more than a corpse. He apparently has no plans to return to the court other than token WTC appearances, and even that will probably not last beyond the group stage as Bahana will eventually be taking his spot.

8. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 27) -- 4,300

It appears Marcek has basically peaked; his last several outings were not particularly impressive. He's had a nice surge the last year and a half, but I don't think it will go much further.

9. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 25) -- 3,815

Gaskell is currently at his career-best and still rising. He could well seize the spot of best US player by the end of the year. To make any kind of challenge to the top players though, he will need to improve his performance in Slam events: he has only two quarterfinal appearances to his name, and none of them within the past year. He's been consistently solid, but will need to step it up from that level to make more substantial inroads.

10. Julian Hammerstein(AUT, 25) -- 3,810

Hammerstein has been dividing his time some with doubles efforts, and this is one reason why he has not risen as fast as he should. He's still good enough to be a major threat to anyone other than Iglar when he's properly prepared, but how much he will make of his gift remains an open question.

It's a gap of over a thousand points right now back to Marcel Bahana in 11th; no doubt the Spanish phenom will make his presence felt here by the end of next year, but for now this should be a stable group at the top.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 7th to 3rd singles, 126th to 180th doubles. Mehul did not play quite as many events as last year, due to going further in one of the big ones. His overall record of 59-14(.808) gave him five fewer singles wins, but also four fewer losses. More on the prospects for next year in the 2042 preview.


Girish Girsh -- 40th to 19th singles, 123rd to 85th doubles. A good year for Girsh despite the second-half slump, and he moves into the elite category with his eyes on pushing his way towards the Top 10 now. At the same age plus a few weeks, Mehul was 31st -- Girsh continues to be ahead of that pace. He's not really a match for most Top 10 players yet, but should be by the end of the year.


Prakash Mooljee -- 66th to 11th juniors. Mehul was never better than 15th in the juniors, while Girsh made it as high as 6th. It remains to be seen where Mooljee will finish but he should get valuable experience this year, his final in the preparatory ranks, playing in the big events. In between, he'll probably start going to a few amateurs to prepare for the jump to the senior tour. His eyes are still to be mostly fixed on the future, not the present. Half of the players ahead of him are older; half are not. Either way he's situated well to be a major player in his generation, and that's all you can ask for a seniors-focused junior talent.


Anil Manohar -- 826th to 2351st singles, 590th to 602nd doubles. Manohar is out of his depth now at the futures level in singles, but still doing well enough to hang around in doubles. As a trainer, his evaluation is up to 4.31, almost exactly a 0.1 gain which is surprisingly better than last year. I don't have to decide when to retire him yet, but right now I think it'll be 2-3 years from now. He'll be 41-42 at that point, and while he doesn't have to retire until 45, I'll want another junior before then and the gain in trainer ability will slow down over time; he's not good enough to ever reach max anyway.


Manager Ranking -- 18th to 10th, 15k points to 20.2k. Obviously this was quite a good year for me, with Mehul becoming a major earner and Girsh heading in that direction as well with some good 250-level results. I could well reach as high as possibly third by the end of the year; at over 20k, with 3rd place currently just under 25k, there's a lot of managers bunched together ahead of me that should fall if my top duo continue to succeed.

[Brian Swartz]

2042 Preview

It's been a bigger shakeup this year than expected, with Elder, Topolski, and Almagro(still in progress) plummeting out of the top contenders. This has cleared the way, a bit prematurely, for the next wave. Alastra's generation has been completely swept aside, Benda's is on the way down now, Iglar and his followers are entering their prime while Bahana headlines the next group about to make it's presence felt.

1. Antonin Iglar(94%, 10.15, +0.01)

It would appear that Iglar is close to his peak, although I think he can still get better. He was fairly stagnant this year and had some unexpected setbacks, but there's no question he's the dominant player in the world and can win almost as much as he wants to. I expect at least three more years at the top for the Czech legend. He's not going away, it's just a matter of how impressive his footprint in the record books will be at this point.

2. Bjorn Benda(89%, 9.90, +0.01)

Benda put in some good training work late in the year, but saw a significant decline off clay as has been mentioned. He's on a slow and slowly increasing decline right now, but will still be very much a part of things for at least a couple of years.

3. Anil Mehul(93%, 9.89, +0.13)

Mehul definitely closed the gap this season, and is basically an equal now with anyone not named Iglar. It's becoming harder and harder to improve, and I think he's close to his peak now though maybe not quite there yet. The next two years will probably be his best. He has continued to improve more than anyone else at the top, and it really started showing dividends the second half of this year. His goals for this period of his best play:

1st. Catch Benda for world no. 2. This would seem to be only a matter of time. Late this coming year or early the following year seems to be the most likely timeframe.

2nd. Win the World Tour Finals and a Grand Slam. The WTF he has a good shot at, almost made it this year. Unfortunately there are no indoor Slams; his best chance will likely come at Wimbledon, with clay a weakness and Iglar focusing on the hardcourts those are unlikely as well. I think he's got a solid chance to take one over the next couple of years, but it's far from a sure thing.

3rd. Play Iglar as often as possible. Off clay, Mehul really has no other rivals that are his equal right now. Catching Iglar for the #1 spot will almost certainly be impossible, but his goal will be to beat everyone else and give himself as many chances as he can for upsets, esp. in the big events.


4. David Alvarez(86%, 9.63, -0.04). Alvarez diversified his game well this year, took advantage of fading rivals and is holding off the march of time admirably. He is on the downslope though, no question about it at 29.

5. Perry Hogue(85%, 9.58, -0.14). Now in a steep decline, which I expect will continue this year. He'll probably just be another guy floating around the bottom of the Top 10 by year's end.

6. Viktor Goncharenko(86%, 9.48, -0.04). His second renaissance this last year has more to do with the collapse of others, but the top Russian's game is holding together better than many. Still, the next generation should be booting him soon.

7. David Almagro(82%, 9.56, -0.14) Almagro has done nothing for the past few months, he's over 31, and he's still got the game to hang around in this relatively weak era if his manager was doing their job. It's a tragedy really for him to go out this way.

8. Cestmir Marcek(89%, 9.54, -0.04) Marcek appears to be just a hair over the hill now. He started to slip a few months ago. It's possible he can regain his footing, but more than likely he's done about all that he's going to do.

9. Pierce Gaskell(93%, 9.67, +0.08) Gaskell is the clear 4th best in Iglar's age bracket(after the champion, Mehul, and Hammerstein) and I figure him to be around 5th by year's end. He has outstanding speed and enough mental toughness to make up for a lack of baseline technique and keep moving up, but probably not enough to ever really be a serious threat.

10. Julian Hammerstein(93%, 9.96, +0.08) Hammerstein is the second-best player in the world from where I sit, but he continues to languish due to substandard management and an apparently lack of motivation. His focus wanders from singles to doubles and back again, he pulls out of the WTC then re-enters again to start this year -- you never know whether he's coming or going. Too much doubles and a lack of preparation kept him from being a major threat last year. The door's still open, though not as wide as once it was. Does he want it? With proper preparation, he could still be Iglar's most potent challenger. It's doubtful that will ever come to pass though.


Other Notables

11. Marcel Bahana(95%, 9.88, +0.13) The next Spanish hope rocketed up from the mid-30s to the edge of the Top 10 last year. He's the heir apparent to Benda on clay; the question is when, not if. He's still being overplayed, but not as badly as he was a year or two ago. As impressive as Girsh's rise in the rankings was this year, Bahana's was even better.

19. Girish Girsh(98%, 9.54, +0.31)

Girsh is about to begin the Bahana Chase in earnest, a term that is funnier if you mistake the middle consonant of the Spaniard's name. Ok, it is to me at least. He's younger and better than any of the players between them except Topolski, who doesn't count since he's in unrestrained free-fall. Only Groeneveldt is even close.

However, this is not really what matters; what matters is getting results against the Top 8 players that he will be consistently facing in the big tournaments. After all, you don't get any bonus points for losing closer matches than your less-skilled contemporaries; you've got to win. Against players he's likely to face in those situations, i.e. the round of 16 trying to advance to the quarterfinals, Girsh didn't do well last year. That's really putting it kindly, as he was winless in a dozen opportunities after escaping Challengers a few months into the year.

2042 should be different for him. That assumes facts not in evidence, but I rate him as being right there with Marcek, a bit ahead of Goncharenko and a bit behind Hogue as 9th or 10th best in the world. That's not bad for a guy who is still some months away from his 23rd birthday, but he needs to start pulling the odd upset against the more vulnerable members of the Top 10 soon. He can only rise incrementally until that begins to happen. The older, less durable, eventually vulnerable Spanish phenom will remain out of his reach for at least another year, but time is on Girsh's side.

2351. Anil Manohar(62%, 6.26, -0.24) It's an ugly thing, getting old ...

11(J). Prakash Mooljee(83%, 6.22, +1.12) The flip side of that coin. Mooljee is still a junior and basically an equal to Manohar now.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Level 1 Group 4 Round One
Phillipines vs. Sri Lanka, Indoors

This was a bit anticlimactic. The Phillipines had a couple of players retire over the off-season, resulting in them being unable to field a viable team, and they had to forfeit the tie. It's a rather shocking development for a level 1 nation, ranked 10th in the world as they are, but Manne Pascual has been gone for a couple of years while John Condon(15th) has managed to do just enough to keep them up. It sure doesn't appear that will be good enough anymore.

** OOC Note: What the game actually did here was give Mehul and Girsh a walkover in one of their singles matches. Both beat clay-specialist Condon in their encounters, Girsh in four sets, Mehul in three. In doubles, they apparently entered some sort of VR simulation or alternate universe, playing a pair of Condon clones, and winning in four sets for a 5-0 total. I couldn't even pretend to come up with a realistic way to justify this in-character, it's such an unlikely scenario and one that RR clearly isn't programmed to deal with quite properly in doubles. **

Sri Lanka moves up two spots to 21st, achieving a new high. They'll next face Peru on grass, with the final group tie against top-ranked Spain taking place very favorably indoors as well. If they can defeat the Peruvians again as expected, Sri Lanka will advance from the group stage for the first time.

Coming Up ...

The Australian Open is three weeks away. Both Mehul and Girsh will see some 250-level action in the meantime. It's particularly important for Girsh to do well, in an effort to secure a Top-16 seed at the AO.

[Brian Swartz]

January

The first month of the year starter off with a bit of a surprise, as Sri Lanka is in the Junior Team Cup for the first time. Going up against South Africa, Prakash Mooljee split his pair of matches as we lost 4-1.

Girish Girsh meanwhile was in Chennai, India(250) as the third seed. He did reasonably well, getting a bit of revenge on Milan Farkas to even their matchup at 2-all, then getting blasted by Iglar in the semis. No shame there of course.

The following week in Auckland, both Girsh and Anil Mehul took part. It looked like the best chance as it had the weaker field overall of the two events on the docket. Unfortunately, Girsh was the 5th seed here and was drawn in Mehul's section, getting blasted again in the semifinals. It would have been nice if he'd made one of the matches competitive, but getting beaten by the best two hardcourt players in the world is no shame.

As for Mehul himself, he cruised through to a final against Marcel Bahana. The Spanish prodigy put the tennis world on notice that he is indeed ready to hang with the best in the world, and not just on clay. He stole the first set and it was only by the narrowest of margins that Mehul was able to prevail, 3-6, 7-6(3), 7-6(5). If this is indicative of the kind of performance he'll put forward on a regular basis, Bahana could well be in the Top 5 by the end of the year. Mehul just managed to get by him though, claiming his fifth career professional title and maintaining what is so far a perfect record in the young season.

A quality start for both, and they are ready for the first Slam of the year in Australia.

[Brian Swartz]

2042 Australian Open

We've got three participants this year, starting off with Prakash Mooljee in the junior field. Seeded 10th, he handled his business convincingly until running into top-seeded and second-ranked junior Hugo Jurco(CZE) in the third round. There, he failed to win a game, being convincingly shown his place by a player several months older and more developed. Mooljee took exactly one-quarter of the points played; this was a demolition. I've now got a few weeks to decide whether he's ready for an amateur or whether to put him in another couple of junior events. The next big event on the junior calendar isn't for another couple months, the same week as Indian Wells.

Girish Girsh was seeded 14th in the pro draw. After a pair of easy straight-sets wins, with one tiebreak the only real resistance, he played Swede Olav Birkeland(28th) for the first time. Birkeland is a hardcourt specialist but one that Girsh should be able to handle fairly easily. After taking a pair of tight sets, he had victory a point or two away in a tight third-set tiebreak ... but lost it, and went in the tank afterwards. Girsh suffers a crushing loss here, and is still clearly having confidence issues. The final scoreline was 6-7(5), 5-7, 7-6(7), 6-2, 6-3. Birkeland blasted 27 aces, but through the first three sets Girsh was playing reasonably well, certainly well enough to win ... he just fell apart. Highly disappointing to lose up 2-0 against an inferior opponent, and one wonders whether his confidence will ever recover at this point.

Anil Mehul figured to have his first test in the quarters, but even that didn't materialize. He did drop a set against Perry Mockler, who had the best run of his career, knocking aside Goncharenko the round before. After that set, Mehul restored order with a bagel to advance in four. This set up a repeat of last year's tournament: a meeting with Benda for the right to deal with Iglar in the final. Benda had nearly lost to Gaskell in the quarters, prevailing only 8-6 in the 5th set. The German was stopped by Mehul for the second straight year, a competitive but pretty one-sided semi despite the 6-3, 7-5, 7-6(6) scoreline. Mehul now leads the head-to-head 7-6, but that's only true because he's never been good enough to face clay on Benda; he's always to someone else earlier.

Back in the final for a second straight year, Mehul had another shot at the champion. Iglar came in having not lost a set or really even been pushed, losing his serve only once(to Marcek). Mehul hung in during a rocky start to the first set, but couldn't hold at the end and Iglar broke in the 10th game to take the first. He seized the momentum with another break at the beginning of the second. Anil didn't fall apart here; he pushed the #1 to deuce in his final two service games but couldn't get a sniff. The third set was like unto the first, with Mehul unable to defend his serve at the end for a 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 defeat. It was a little more resistance than anyone else gave the Czech, and quite a bit closer than last year's obliteration, but the result was the same: straight sets, Iglar holding the crown again, his 7th Slam tying him with at least a half-dozen others for 5th all-time.

There were a couple of notable absences here. Almagro and Topolski were of course expected, but Julian Hammerstein has disappointingly decided to 'go doubles', forgoing all singles events so far this year. For reasons unknown, Marcel Bahana also didn't show up, leaving two major challengers on the sidelines. And for those two wastes of talent, all I can say is that you can't make history when you aren't there.

Coming Up ...

The second group tie in the WTC pits Sri Lanka against Peru, who they defeated 4-1 a little over a year ago to seal their promotion to Level 1 originally.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group 4, Round Two
Sri Lanka vs. Peru, Grass

Monday: A. Mehul d. M. Herrera, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5
Tuesday: T. Herrera d. G. Girsh, 6-2, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4
Wednesday: V. Bureba/J. Torres d. G. Girsh/A. Mehul, 7-6(8), 1-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4
Thursday: A. Mehul d. T. Herrera, 7-6(3), 6-3, 6-2
Friday: G. Girsh d. M. Herrera, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-3, 4-6, 6-2

Sri Lanka defeats Peru, 3-2!

Wow. This was a lot more drama than we bargained for, and Girsh's disappointing form continues. He had one key moment against Thiago Herrera in the second match; trailing 5-4 at the end of the third, he had two break points to get even at 15-40 but couldn't convert, and a disappointing loss there was followed by an epic doubles encounter. We actually had more points than the Peruvians(161-154) but they had more of the ones that matter to outlast us.

After Mehul took care of business to keep us in the tie, Girsh faced Marcelo Herrera to decide things once and for all. They went the distance as well, with Herrera converting three of four break chances to keep it close though Girsh was clearly the better player. Still not pleased with his form on the week, and we should have won this tie much easier, but ultimately we did win -- and clinched our first-ever Level 1 quarterfinals berth in the process.

In a couple months, the final group match against Spain will be favorably indoors, and determine the Group 4 first-place spot. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka is up four spots to 17th in the world!

Coming Up ...

Mehul will take all of the season's first significant break off, a full month until Indian Wells. Girsh will take three weeks, then head to Delray Beach(250, Hard) as a warmup. That same week as IW is Copa Gerdau in Brazil, the next big juniors event on the year('A' category, essentially a junior-level masters). So that will be a busy time, but for now it's back to the practice courts.

[Brian Swartz]

February/March

This will be brief, and is overdue. Indian Wells is almost over as of the time of writing. Prakash Mooljee is sliding as is typical at the start of the year, but he did take both titles at a tier-2 event in Montevideo. Playing in the amateurs was considered, but in order to get valuable experience in the big junior events, he really needs to stay in the seedings and that means 'keeping up with the Joneses' a bit in terms of getting some ranking points and not going down to far. He needs to stay about in the Top 20 to do that and so far so good on that front.

Girish Girsh had an outing at the Delray Beach 250 the week before IW. I'd rather not discuss it, but I suppose I have to. He was the 2-seed, and the best player there as the #1 was veteran Andres Blanco of Spain, ranked 12th with a career-high of 11th, one of those players who was never good enough to reach the first page and now at 29 just trying to hang on.

Unfortunately, Girsh was the victim of a truly shocking 6-2, 7-5 upset in the first round by American Eddy Parsons. This is as bad a loss as I've ever heard of, and definitely the worst I've ever seen a player of mine suffer. Parsons has never been higher than 29th and is presently outside the Top 50, a near-30 hardcourt specialist who never developed a credible elite-level baseline game. Girsh just laid an egg here, an absolute egg, and I'm starting to wonder if he's ever going to get it together again. Mehul never suffered the kind of slump he's going through, which has at this point lasted nearly a year. Worse than just the loss itself and wasted opportunity at Delray Beach was the fact that it left him not well prepared at all for the two Masters to follow, where he will be playing doubles now in an attempt to catch up in preparation as much as possible. Just an ugly, ugly, inexcusable loss. No way he should lose to a player like Parsons at this point. Not ever. No way, nohow.

The ironic thing is, he'd just gotten his first-ever practice match win over Mehul a couple days prior. He should have lost it, but just had enough key points go his way, and I thought it might jump-start his confidence. About that ... Right now, I go into every match of his fearing the worst and frankly not expecting him to play well. More often than not, it's exactly what happens. .

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells Masters

Girsh was just high enough to have a bye as the 15th seed. He blasted through his first opponent and then fairly impressively dispatched Marcelo Herrera, who nearly beat him a month ago in the WTC, in straight sets. Following that was No. 7 Pierce Gaskell in the fourth round. Gaskell has really improved himself this year and looks to be continuing to rise. Girsh had a chance here but was a big underdog. Gaskell won it, but he was a given a fight, 7-6(5), 6-3. Girsh played well enough to give himself a chance, and really had a solid bounce-back tournament here even if he still didn't manage to pull off an upset.

Mehul had a good draw, but it almost all came undone for him in the fourth round as well. Matched up with 25th-seed Radek Smitala(USA), who should have been an easy win for him, he managed to escape only by the narrowest of margins in a tough final-set tiebreak. The final count was 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(7), with Smitala blasting 17 aces and while Mehul was a bit better, it could have gone either way.

It was a wake-up call, and one that was heeded. Gaskell fell routinely in the next round, setting up a match with Benda that was not as close as the two-set tiebreak victory which resulted. And so Mehul made it to his first final here, naturally meeting Iglar once again. This time was a bit closer than in Australia, but once again the Czech was a couple steps ahead and took his 11th Masters Shield, 7-6(4), 6-4.

Edit: It's worth noting here I think that Anil Mehul went over the 10 million mark in career earnings with his runner-up placement.

All in all a good tournament, and more ground gained on the German no. 2. That near-disaster against Smitala was the key moment; it was a letdown, and one that very nearly cost him.

Prakash Mooljee was in Copa Gerdau('A') and once again had the misfortune to meet the top seed in the third round. The top-ranked junior player in the world, Croatia's Sava Cirakovic, dismissed him 6-1, 6-2, and that was that. It is a couple months now for him before the next A-tier tournament, the Italian Open at the end of May.

Coming Up

Miami next week will conclude the year's fist quarter.

[Brian Swartz]

Miami Masters

In many ways Miami was just a repeat of Indian Wells, which was not entirely a bad thing. A pretty favorable draw for both players. Girsh looked off in his first match but got through it, then blasted through Arsenio Antuofermo easily to set up a fourth-round clash with Perry Hogue. Hogue is off to a good start this year, but if Girsh played well I thought he should have a real chance. This is the kind of opportunity he needs to take advantage of. He was pretty good, but not good enough and Hogue moved on 6-3, 1-6, 6-3. The American veteran was just more consistent really, while essentially sandbagging the middle set once he got behind and saving his energy for the finish. It worked, and it's another decent tournament but once again no breakthrough.

Mehul had a serious case of deja vu when his fourth-rounder was revealed to be Smitala once again. Neither player was interested in a reprise of their classic at Indian Wells, but thankfully that's not what happened as Anil had to survive a tiebreak but was then through in straight sets. After that he really put on a show, decimating both Marcek and surprise semifinalist Perry Mockler(USA), who knocked Benda out. Mehul lost seven games in those matches combined and went into yet another final against Iglar as the fresher man.

It helped, but not enough. He pushed the Czech much harder than in their previous matches this year, but the result was the same: 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(1). Another very fine run for Anil Mehul, and the opening hardcourt phase of the season is now complete.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(25, CZE) -- 15,050

It's pretty hard to improve on perfection; Iglar is off to an unblemished 32-0 start through the year's first quarter and holds a monstrous lead over the fading Benda. He's now tied for 7th all-time with a full dozen Masters titles, and more accolades are coming.

2. Bjorn Benda(27, DEU) -- 9,860

Benda is increasingly vulnerable off of clay as I've mentioned, but his days as a top player will truly be over when he loses his grip on that kingdom. That probably happens next year, but it's not out of the question that Bahana could begin to depose him this year. More than ever he needs to be strong during the upcoming spring, and surprisingly it looks like he's going to skip Monte Carlo once again. Not a wise choice in my opinion.

3. Anil Mehul(26, SRI) -- 8,700

No major titles this year(Auckland 250 is the only one) but he's done everything but with three finals losses to Iglar. He's now in striking distance of Benda, and should surpass him in the fall if not sooner. It's increasing clear that his ascendance to no. 2 is only a matter of time.

4. David Alvarez(29, ESP) -- 6,530

The latest to wear the title of 'best of the rest', Alvarez has been solid but unspectacular. He's made the quarters of all the hardcourt events, took a clay 500 in Acapulco, and generally has handled his business to maintain his spot.

5. Perry Hogue(28, USA) -- 6,080

With 30 match wins already and semis at all three of the big events so far, Hogue is off to a fine start, refusing to fade away gracefully just yet.

6. Viktor Goncharenko(29, RUS) -- 4,735

The latest top player to leave before he wears out his welcome, Goncharenko skipped Miami and IW and appears to be headed for early retirement. He hasn't been seen in any events of note since a 4th-round exit in Australia. He's still a guy who can be an occasional threat, especially during the upcoming middle of the year on clay and grass, but it looks like that won't be the case.

7. Cestmir Marcek(28, CZE) -- 4,530

Clearly not the player he was a year or so ago, Marcek is just hanging on now and probably not for too much longer.

8. Pierce Gaskell(25, USA) -- 4,035

Gaskell still looks like he's headed for the Top 5 by year's end. He has titles already in San Jose and Sydney, and has been quarterfinalist or better everywhere except Miami, where he had a close loss to a countryman ...

9. Perry Mockler(26, USA) -- 3,210

Say hello to the latest member of the Top 10. Mockler is basically Gaskell without the speed around the court. He's a fine player though and appears to be a late developer a la Marcek a couple of years ago. His run to the Miami semis was a breakout performance of sorts: now it's time to see if he can back it up. He's got the game to add considerably to last year's spring performance.

10. Marcel Bahana(24, ESP) -- 3,000

The latest youth movement, aka 'Generation Flash', is served. I told you it was coming. Bahana has been solid so far and with Hammerstein and Almagro plummeting past he moves up to the first page now. I still think he'll come up short against Benda on clay but he's better than anyone else there if he is prepared. I expect him to knock off some big names in the coming months.

A sleeper to mention here is Peru's Thiago Herrera. He's gradually been on the rise, and is another guy who could be ready to knock off some giants on clay. If he gets the right draws, although only 15th right now, he could be knocking on the door of the Top 10 soon.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 3rd singles(unchanged), 180th to 209th doubles. Mehul got some serious luck in the draws so far, as he was not on Iglar's side in any of the three big tournaments. There was only a 1 in 8 chance of that happening. On the other hand, the official rankings for some reason have ignored his Auckland title -- he should be even closer to Benda than he is. Still, it's been as good a start to the year as he could have reasonably expected. A 24-3 record is even better when you consider that all three losses came against Iglar. Can't ask for more than that. The picture probably won't change a whole lot until after Wimbledon: he may add a bit to last year's clay results, or drop a bit, but for now it's about staying as close as possible and getting ready to make another big push in the fall.


Girish Girsh -- 19th to 17th singles, 85th to 127th doubles. Credible performances in Indian Wells and Miami have helped, but Girsh still hasn't broken through against top competition and there have been a couple of painfully underachieving defeats. His 13-7 record so far is actually a worse winning percentage than he put together last year. Probably he'll make up a little ground with virtually nothing to defend on clay, but Girish hasn't yet joined the main group of Blanco, Federer, T. Herrera, and Condon ahead of him that's pushing to be the next to break into the Top 10. It's a disappointment so far, more was expected and he'll need a big finish to the year now in order to salvage it.


Prakash Mooljee -- 11th to 24th juniors. Most of the top players have been a lot more active; many of them too active. Mooljee is still doing ok, he's just got different long-term priorities. He has a tier-2 coming up next week, then the Italian Open, junior Roland Garros, and junior Wimbledon all in fairly quick succession.

Manager Ranking -- 10th to 9th, 20.2k to 21.4k points.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group Four, Round Three
Sri Lanka(20th) vs. Spain(1st), Indoor

Monday: A. Mehul d. M. Bahana, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. D. Alvarez, 7-6(3), 6-1, 6-2
Wednesday: G. Girsh/A. Mehul d. M. Serrano/J. Carrera, 6-1, 6-1, 6-3
Thursday: A. Mehul d. D. Alvarez, 7-6(4), 7-5, 6-3
Friday: M. Bahana d. G. Girsh, 2-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 12-10

Sri Lanka defeats Spain, 4-1!!

On paper this is a huge upset, but there are a couple of factors that make it less so. Indoors plays to our biggest strength and their biggest weakness. Also, the usual doubles trump guard went away as they have the same manager as V. Goncharenko, awol for some time now. Still, it's one heck of a victory, and we take first place in Group 4! The first meeting ever between Girsh and Bahana sure didn't disappoint; it was such an epic match that I almost didn't even mind losing it. Almost. 202-201 was the final points count in favor of Girsh, an extremely even match and the first one I've ever seen with an xp yield this high(404 for GG, almost as much as an extra practice week). That was pretty much just nuts.

After the second round, we were up to 17th but then dropped to 20th due to events in the junior level. This propels us to a new high of 15th, and Spain drops to 3rd behind the Czech Republic and USA. Towards the end of the year, we'll be matched up with Serbia who we should be able to handle, though it's on clay which means it's far from a sure thing. A probable semifinal against the Americans looming if we win. Uncharted territory here, that's for sure.

Coming Up

Monte Carlo starts up the clay season in a couple of weeks, but none of the Top 3, including Mehul, will be there. He's had three matches a week for five weeks in a row now, and needs time off ahead of the Rome/Madrid double. Either Alvarez or Bahana will probably seize the moment there, and Girsh will be playing as well.

[Brian Swartz]

So I was about two sentences from having this up yesterday, then accidentally erased everything as I am prone to do from time to time, rage-quit and did other things. It's about a week behind now in game time, but here it is.

April

Prakash Mooljee had a pretty easy win at the Alicante Tier-2 in singles, but lost his first match in doubles. That got him back into the Top 20 for the moment, and he took the next three weeks off to train for the Italian Open.

Then, it was time for Monte Carlo. Girish Girsh was seeded 12th, and started off with a win over qualifier Arnaldo Barranco. It was a pretty easy win despite a fairly close scoreline. He then met Italian Mugur Kinczllers(27th). The former junior world no. 1 figured to be more than a match for him on clay, but Girsh battled his way to a tough, deserved 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 victory! It was by far the best win he's had in nearly a year, and a great sign. Bahana was up next in the third round and predictably flattened Girsh on his favored surface, but that didn't dampen a strong week.

After taking a week off to practice, he headed to the Estoril Open(250) as the 2nd seed. John Condon was the big favorite. Girsh handled Barranco again, this time much more one-sided, and then met veteran Swede Vito Bonamoni who figured to be another stern test. Bonamoni is a clay specialist and not a half-bad one, but Girsh got through him 6-4, 6-4. In the semifinals though, he was stopped a step short of meeting Condon for the title by Italian Tobia Alberti. Alberti is not the player Bonamoni is, but was a bit more consistent in a 6-4, 1-6, 6-2 minor upset.

Ups and downs for Sri Lanka's #2 here, but that's much better than the mostly downs that were seen for the last several months. Looks like he's trying and at least partly succeeding in breaking out of his run of poor play.

Coming Up ...

Nearing the end of the Madrid Masters, with Rome to follow it, and the Italian Open in juniors is also ongoing as the clay season heats up now.

[Brian Swartz]

Italian Open(Juniors)

Seems that the third round is a consistent roadblock for Mooljee in the big events. In this case it was unseeded Brazilian specialist Andreas de Sousa who narrowly defeated him, though he did reach the final in doubles.

Madrid Masters

Girish Girsh had a tough first-rounder in Argentine Gustavo Caratti. He started well, taking the first set in a tiebreak after losing a lead initially, but Caratti got better as the match went on to win in three. This is a case where it was just an unfortunate draw; on clay, no shame in losing this. 6-7(2), 6-4, 6-1 was the final.

Mehul had himself a couple of tough matches early on against journeymen, but proven operators on the dirt. German Harald Oncken went down in a tight straight-sets match, followed by a closer one against 16-seed Max Benitez(ARG). After losing the first set, Anil rallied for a 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 win aided by 18 aces.

Alvarez waited in the quarters and Mehul just folded here unfortunately, taking just four games. Not an inspiring effort by any means. The surprise of the tournament was Peru's Thiago Herrera, who edged past Iglar after the no. 1 had barely escaped the clutches of Bahana, and went on to reach the final. The winner was Benda who showed no signs of relinquishing his turf.


Rome Masters

Back at it again, Girsh had a second-round date with Oncken after a competitive win in the first round. I expected him to lose this one, but he came through with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 comeback win. Iglar flattened him in the following round, but it was a credible showing overall with the Oncken victory.

Anil Mehul found his road a bit easier this time. A routine win over Orziz, and a flattening of Federer including a bagel led him to a quarterfinal tilt with Marcel Bahana. This one was a heck of a match, and showcased the rising Spaniard's mental game. Mehul had him but could not put him away in the key moments, and youth was ultimately served 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(4). Benda awaited in the semis and the outcome there was pretty much known but it was still the first match between the king of clay and the heir apparent. The German won 6-2, 6-4, convincing enough that it's clear it will be at least another year. He takes the title here as well, and in both weeks he did not lose a set. Herrera had another good week, this time losing a close one to Iglar in the semis. He's vaulted himself ahead of Bahana and into the Top 10, announcing himself as a serious customer at least on the clay.

Coming Up ...

Junior Roland Garros is next week with the pro version starting the following week. Made a bit of an error in not giving Mehul or Girsh practice tournaments in the off week, so they had to play a lot of sessions against each other. Hate when I miss the chance for better training like that, even though one week doesn't make a huge difference.

In any case, RG is up next and it looks like Girsh has been surpassed by just enough players to knock him out of the Top 16 seeds :(.

[Brian Swartz]

2042 French Open

The FO always holds a few surprises. This year, there were more than a few. We start off in the junior tournament, where Prakash Mooljee was seeded 13th. As in the other big events this year, he proceeded smoothly to the third round. 7th-seeded Blagota Cojanovic was there greeted very rudely. Normally Mooljee loses against a top-ranking player at this stage, or gets upset like at the Italian, but he abused Cojanovic 6-3, 6-0, winning nearly 70% of his points on return to move to the quarters in dominating fashion. There he lost against Jurco, who would go on to lose a tight final, almost as decisively. It was a second straight magical run to the finals in doubles, and the combination of these two successes move Mooljee well into the Top 20 again at 15th. Overall, Roland Garros was his best tournament of the year to date.

The next week, the professional event commenced with Girish Girsh as the 18th seed. Dropping out of the Top 16 was not good for him, but he was unchallenged en route to a third-round match with Spain's veteran Andres Blanco. This was a pretty favorable matchup, and was almost as good as it would have been to keep his higher seeding. It's nice to have things break your way. The match figured to be a toss-up, Blanco a slight favorite if anything but definitely a match either man could win. That's how it played out, with the pair splitting tiebreaks in the first two sets. Girsh took a tight third but really laid an egg in the fourth. The final set eventually went his way, and he claimed his first-ever 4th-round berth here(the USO last year he reached this stage as well), 7-6(5), 6-7(1), 7-5, 1-6, 6-3. He was the best player overall despite the bad fourth set, but only narrowly: he won 40% on return to 38%, out-aced Blanco 20-14, but was actually out-pointed by one, 176-175. Either player could indeed have won, and it was great to see him come through one of these when he could have folded. Girsh may nearly be back from his months-long slump.

He lost in the next match to Iglar in straight sets, but it was competitive esp. in the second set. All in all a good run here for Girsh and there's nothing to complain about in his game from it. Follow-up performances like this will have him well on his way, if he can produce them.

Anil Mehul had a tournament he will not soon forget. In it's own way, it might be on the shortlist of his greatest moments when his time in the sport is done. He gave up only 10 games in his first three matches combined, actually getting better as the rounds progressed. And there was a familiar and completely unexpected foe in his path at that point:

Julian Hammerstein.

No, do not adjust your receivers. It was the first big singles event Hammerstein has played all year, and yet he still has enough skill to make Mehul a small underdog. They had played only twice a few years ago on clay; Mehul had not one a set in those meetings. He took the first here, but the Austrian rallied to take the second and third and it appeared that our hero might fall in the 4th round for the second straight year. I don't know if it was resurgence at that point or if Hammerstein just ran out of gas or what, but Anil turned the tables on him for a 6-4, 4-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 victory. Ironically, the way it was forged was by being better than the normally mentally stout Hammerstein in the key moments. He converted 8 of 15 break chances, compared to 6 of 16 for Julian: not a huge difference but in a tight match it was enough to make the difference. Very possibly he should have lost this, but he's lost plenty in his career he should have won, and either way Mehul moves on. Hammerstein still leads the H2H 6-5, and it has been three years since either player won two in a row. This almost certainly would have ended differently if JH would not have diverted so much effort to doubles; but he did, and so here we are. A big win for Mehul without a doubt.

Gaskell was next in the quarters. This figured to be a tight match with the American not quite as skilled but still improving and considerably better on the clay. Confidence on his part was a big question mark, with Mehul owning a 7-1 edge in their meetings including the last four(all on hard court), along with a decisive win in their only clay matchup back in the '38 Olympics. There were no signs of such struggle though in the first set as Pierce grasped a razor-thin tiebreak. Mehul rallied to take the next two sets, only to struggle at key moments and hand over the fourth without much of a fight. Just when it looked like this might be a reverse of the Hammerstein comeback, he refocused and controlled the fifth set from the start. It still wasn't easy, but for the second straight time he comes through in five to reach his first-ever French Open semifinal, 6-7(7), 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-2. Again it was so very tight, 165-162 in points, 41%-40% in return points, break points nearly even, overall Gaskell put the most pressure on but just a bit better in the most critical moments was Mehul to get through.

So on to the semis it was, two 5-setters that could easily have been defeats in the rearview mirror. And who was here waiting? Bjorn Benda. The Emperor of Clay. Mehul held an 8-6 lifetime edge against him including wins in the last three and six of the last seven, but not a one of those prior to this, their 15th encounter, was on clay. As I've mentioned before, this was because he'd never gotten far enough in a clay tournament to face the world's best on this surface. Those who thought the German would be more vulnerable this year had been proved wrong: he had yet to drop a set in 15 matches this year, extending his clay winning streak to an absurd 61 in a row. The last time he lost on the dirt was against Alastra in the final of the '38 Rome Masters, over four years ago.

At least Mehul was here to be part of this year's coronation. The storyline wrote itself ... except that he refused to co-operate, not just winning the first set but taking it to Benda from the opening toss. In the second, a tiebreak ensued and a very tight one, eventually one by the German. Mehul struck back in the third, shockingly putting Benda one set from ending his streak ... and then either he simply didn't have anything left or the champion upped his level. Probably some of both, as such things usually are. It was time for Anil to be on the receiving end of a comeback, 2-6, 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-3, 6-3. So close, so very close, to ending one of the great runs in recent tennis history. That second-set tiebreak will be something he long remembers. One more big serve, one less error at a key point there, and he would have shocked the world by making it through in straight sets against the seemingly invincible Benda. As it was, on the whole he was outplayed though it was close. On the other side, Iglar and Alvarez staged a classic as well, with the no. 1 escaping only 8-6 in the 5th.

Three straight epic five-setters. And just like Wimbledon last year, he was literally a point or two away from a winnable Slam final, only to fall short. However, this was not even the biggest surprise of the French Open this season. In the final, this semi was proved not to be a fluke. Benda took the first set against Antonin Iglar, but didn't win another; he was dethroned by the Czech legend, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4. Here, perhaps, despite his dominance coming in, is the moment to recognize that Benda's time at the top is either over or nearly so.

More than that though, it was a historic step for Iglar, who not only completes the career Slam but presently holds all five major titles(Four Slams + World Tour Finals). The list of men who have done that, ever, is short. Previously Eric Gorritepe was the only man on it: now, that number is doubled to two, with Iglar joining him.

For Mehul, these events place Benda within his sights, and his ascendance to the no. 2 spot by year's-end seems almost assured. The gap between them in the rankings is now just 430 points.


Coming Up ...

Mehul will have the next couple of weeks off, while Girsh takes only one and then plays a warmup before Wimbledon. Mooljee will be in action there as well of course. It is possible Anil Mehul could take the #2 spot in the world rankings at the oldest championship in tennis; he is also a serious contender for his first title there. It is a particularly big moment for him, full of confidence as he is after an impressive run at Roland Garros. But for now, rest and preparation are in order.

[Tellistto]

So many threads, so hard to keep them straight!

Nice job on the tennis matches, Brian!

Tell

[Brian Swartz]

Roffle, I just realized what I did. Feeling a little stupid at the moment.

Thanks though :).

[Brian Swartz]

I'm a bit behind here again, so time to spam the thread the next couple of days ...

June

Aka the two weeks between the summer slams. Everyone was off for the first week. In the second, Girsh was the third seed at the UNICEF Open(250). He nearly met with disaster like he did last year in the first round, falling a set behind to Frenchman Patric Clerq before rallying to win in three. From there he gradually looked a little better each round before meeting top-seeded Andres Blanco in the final. In a rematch of their French Open classic just three weeks earlier, and just their second overall meeting, Blanco won 7-5, 6-4 in a match that wasn't really that close. Such is the way of grass-court tennis when break chances are often rare. Overall a solid week for him, but it almost ended quickly and badly.

Prakash Mooljee was in action as the 8th-seed at the junior Wimbledon; several of the players ranked ahead of him chose not to participate, more than usual, giving him a better position in the draw. He made smooth progress to the quarterfinals, where he lost to Jurco once again. Doubles went better as it has lately, with a run to the semis. Having played three big events in the past few weeks, Mooljee will now take almost two full months off to train.

[Brian Swartz]

Wimbledon, Part 1

Part 1 because I realized partway through the tournament that there were going to be some momentous events that I wanted to break out into more detail.

Girish Girsh actually started out more impressively than his more accomplished countryman, and cruised through the first three rounds to his best-ever finish here without a hint of a challenge. In the fourth he met with Pierce Gaskell, and the American, a more skilled grass player, figured to have a fairly easy time with him. Girsh had other plans, snagging the first set. After they traded the next two, the match ultimately came down to a very tight fourth-set tiebreak. Gaskell ultimately prevailed there and used the momentum to seize an early break in the 5th, narrowly stopping Girsh's dreams of getting to the second week. 4-6, 6-2, 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-4 was the final. Gaskell was given everything he wanted and then some in this match; it was literally a coin-flip with how close it was(153-151 total pts; 35-34% return points won) and probably only experience got him through. A point or two goes the other way in that tiebreak and Girsh would have made it through.

Even with that though, it was the most impressive tournament I can recall in Girsh's career. He was excellent every time out over his four matches here, equaling his best result in a Slam and very nearly getting to the quarters against a significantly better opponent. He certainly looks primed for a big fall if he can keep up his recent improvements.

Meanwhile, Anil Mehul's charmed draws this year continued. His path to the semifinals looked clear of any major obstacles and he was on the opposite side from Iglar. One couldn't ask for a better situation -- it looked like a semi date with Benda was on the cards unless one of them fell prematurely. He had lapses in each of his first couple of rounds, then a bit of a testy third-rounder in which 21st-seed Mugur Kinczllers was dispatched 6-3, 6-4, 6-3. It looked like Mehul was a little off his game this week, leading to concern as he faced (10) Roger Federer(SUI) in the fourth round. Federer is about a year younger, just coming into his prime, and one of more accomplished grass-courters in the world. He can't compete from the baseline and isn't very fast, but is strong and has a world-class serve, a tough combination on grass.

It looked like a dangerous spot for Mehul, but he rose to the occasion and actually had a bit easier time with this match than the previous one, cruising through in straight sets to meet up with Marcek in the quarters. Like Iglar, Marcek pays little attention to grass and was not expected to be a serious threat here. He pushed the match to one tiebreak, which Mehul won easily and again was through in three sets.

Wimbledon is normally unpredictable, but this set up a semifinal pairing of the four top seeds in the draw: Iglar vs. Hogue on the other side, and for Mehul, it was time for Benda's Last Stand. On grass is the one surface where Mehul and Benda are pretty much evenly matched. If Benda won, he had a chance still to retain the #2 spot in the rankings this year; if not, it would likely be over soon for him. The winner would get another chance to end Iglar's reign of terror on the Czech's most vulnerable surface. Form had held so far ...

[Brian Swartz]

2042 Wimbledon, Part 2(Conclusion)

Surprising pretty much nobody, Iglar handled Hogue in straight sets in the first semifinal. He's lost only one set here, to Gaskell in the quarterfinals. The second was by far the most intriguing matchup. It did not disappoint the build-up and hype.

Benda won the first set, and the second went to a tense tiebreak which Mehul pretty much had to win ... and did. As often happens in those situations, it's hard for the loser to recover mentally and he seized a break early to take the third set. Another tiebreak in the fourth, but this time Benda just barely edged it, putting Mehul in the same situation for a decisive fifth set. He did not fold though, and eventually broke through for a 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-4 win in another epic. It was another one of those that could have gone either way easily. A slight edge in the vital moments was all that separated the two players here.

All of this set the stage for what had to be considered the most important match of Anil Mehul's career. Tennis is mostly about the grind; it is a pattern of results, not any single tournament, that usually determines things. Sometimes, however, singular opportunities present themselves and this was such a time. If Mehul lost here again, as he did in the epic 10-8 5th set against Iglar in last year's semifinals, very little would change. He'd gain a slight bit on Benda in the rankings, another loss against Iglar is nothing to be ashamed of and the #1 would be a modest favorite here of course, and in general the status quo would be continued. If he won however, the obvious immediate impact would be breaking through for his first Grand Slam title, but in addition to that he would interrupt the champion's historic stranglehold on the sport, and also move above Benda finally for the #2 spot in the rankings. At 26 and very near to if not at the peak of his powers, Mehul was not going to get a better chance than this. Iglar is nearly invincible on hardcourts and the obstacles on clay are much more numerous. It very well could be now or never.

First Set

Mehul looked to be the sharper player by a bit at the outset. He missed a break chance at 2-2, but converted a second at 3-3. Serving for the set at 5-4, he picked a bad time for a loose game and faced 15-40. After rallying to even the game, he double-faulted twice at deuce but again was able to fight off the challenge and took the set 6-4! He was very fortunate there not to blow it, and the proper result probably would have been a tiebreak when all bets would have been off. Iglar had not taken any of the four opportunities though, and Mehul was now two sets from the title.

Second Set

A double-fault from Iglar set up an early chance at 1-1, but the Czech saved it and deuce was as close as either player would get. In the eventual tiebreak, Mehul snagged a minibreak on the first point, and it was the only point either player would lose on serve in a taut affair. 7-4 the breaker went his way, and he was up 2-0!!

Third Set

Iglar was clearly the better player at the outset. Perhaps Mehul relaxed a bit, but he had a couple of loose service games. The first was at 2-all, when he saved three break points. Two more were required at 3-all, and it was obvious that the no. 1 was pressing to break through, but it didn't happen. In the following game, a frustrated Iglar allowed one opportunity and Anil grabbed it and closed out the match without much drama.

In a stunning turn of events, Anil Mehul defeats Antonin Iglar 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-3 and is the 2042 Wimbledon Champion!. Winning the match is a bit of a surprise, but winning in straight sets is astonishing. Over the first two sets he was indeed a little better, but in the third there's no question Iglar's level was higher. Uncharacteristically but certainly understandably the champion cracked. After all, he is human as well and it is not often he finds himself down two sets to love! Overall Mehul converted 2 of 4 break points while Iglar was 0-for-9. 107-98 was the points count.

Antonin Iglar's stranglehold is over, at least for the moment -- and Mehul can no longer be regarded, as he was before, as one of the best players to never win the Slam. He's reached the mountaintop here, and whatever else happens, that can never be taken away from him.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 25) -- 14,690

The quest for the CYGS(Calendar Year Grand Slam) is delayed for another year, but Iglar is still king with a spectacular 52-3 record; he seems headed for a third straight year of single-digit losses, at the very least.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 26) -- 10,160

It's been a charmed year so far for Mehul, who ironically has gotten through luck most of the time the main benefit of being #2 before he actually reached this position; being able to avoid Iglar until the final of any tournament.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 28) -- 9,850

With the first cracks in his dominance of clay the last few years showing at RG, Benda is now in the position of hanging onto his spot in the Big Three for as long as he can. That might be some time yet given the relatively poor state of things these days.

4. Perry Hogue(USA, 28) -- 6,840

It's been a surprisingly consistent year for Hogue: he has five semifinals in the seven big events so far, with a quarterfinal in one more(Madrid). He's established himself as a gatekeeper of sorts -- the best of the rest, and the guy would-be challengers must surpass if they wish to assault the top.

5. David Alvarez(ESP, 29) -- 5,940

Hanging around and, for now, still with a cushion on the next generation.

6. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 28) -- 5,020

7. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 26) -- 4,565

Gaskell has been a quarterfinalist at all three Slams so far this year; he reached that stage only twice in all previous seasons combined, but has never gone further. He hasn't done as well in the Masters events though, only one quarter this year. Consistent overplaying has kept him from breaking through so far, and will probably be particularly damaging this fall.

8. Perry Mockler(USA, 26) -- 3,885

It's been some time since the U.S. placed three players in the top eight. They've surpassed Spain as the best singles nation right now.

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 24) -- 3,580

The newest face to grace the first page, Thiago is the most accomplished of the Herrera wave(there's 4-5 notable ones by this point) and while Peru has a storied history, he's the first to reach the Top 10 in nearly 30 years. The last was another Herrera, Alessandro; three were Top 5 and two reached #1. That's an unlikely height for Thiago, but he's become a major force on clay.

10. Viktor Goncharenko(RUS, 29) -- 2,950

Pretty much waiting for someone to pass him at this point.

Although he recently activated again, Marsel Bahana took over a month off after RG, including skipping Wimbledon. This is really unaccountable and continues the trend the last few years of more and more top players not taking their craft seriously. Players like Mehul and Benda, far clear of the field as the clear #2 and #3, would be little better than average Top 10 players at other points in history. Right now though, many challengers have given up or just aren't pulling their weight, which is unfortunate.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 3rd to 2nd singles, 209th to 174th doubles. Breaking through at Wimbledon achieved a number of Mehul's outstanding career goals. Winning the World Tour Finals(and another Slam if possible of course) is still out there, but beyond that the only tangible thing left would be of course to reach #1 which is still almost certainly unrealistic. Continuing to reach as many finals as possible against Iglar and trying to close the gap if he can(currently at a still-massive 4530 pts) is really what remains for this year. He will need to play well to retain the #2 spot, with both his Masters titles from last fall yet to defend.


Girish Girsh -- 17th to 16th singles, 127th to 114th doubles. Girsh appears to finally have fully emerged from his slump, and is presently back at his career-high. In the fall, he did reasonably well last year at Paris and the USO but won only two matches combined in the three hardcourt Masters, so he should be able pick up some more ground and inch closer to the Top 10 if his recent form holds at all.

Prakash Mooljee -- 24th to 20th juniors. It looks as if around 20th is where Mooljee will probably finish, give or take. He still has several more weeks off, and many of his rivals have been more active. Overall he looks to be on a healthy pace in terms of his development, so there are no real concerns here at the moment.

Manager Ranking -- 9th to 6th, 21.4k to 23.3k points. Wimbledon was a huge boon here obviously. I'll probably be up to at least 4th, possibly even 3rd by year's end. Meanwhile oprice has set a new record again despite Mehul's heroics at nearly 61k. Only three others have hit 40k, one other at about 51k at their peaks, so he's miles ahead of everyone else.

[digamma]

Congrats to you and Anil!

[Brian Swartz]

Danke, good sir!

Race to the World Tour Finals

The annual post-Wimbledon tradition, wherein we look at the standings for the calendar year to this point.

IN

Antonin Iglar -- 9,030
Bjorn Benda -- 6,180
Anil Mehul -- 6,030

I'll be watching this closely not because there's any drama in terms of making the field; you can book the spots for these three already. More important is tracking the progress in terms of securing the year-end #2 and the gap with the other two members of the dominant trio.


Probable

Perry Hogue -- 4,360
David Alvarez -- 4,160
Cestmir Marcek -- 3,530
Pierce Gaskell -- 3,210


Contenders

Thiago Herrera -- 2,840
----------------------------
Perry Mockler -- 2,620


Long Shots

Marcel Bahana -- 2,320
Roger Federer -- 2,020

Federer, at the end of last year, was a challenger-level player; now he's 11th in the world. Still, he has a lot of work to do and has yet to reach the second week at a Slam. Bahana would be, at a minimum, probable for the field had he showed up for more than one of the first three Slams of the year I would think. He could still well make it, but he needs to avoid any more lapses. With all the upheaval there are a lot of new names here; Herrera has never been in serious conversation for the WTF before, Mockler as well. There are a couple of others just off the list as well.

[Brian Swartz]

Coming Attractions

Three weeks off now for everybody, but after that it gets crazy and the break will not be as long as would have been preferred. It starts with the Olympics in New Haven, Connecticut in mid-August. Canada and Cincinatti Masters events follow in consecutive weeks, then after one week off the US Open and immediately after that, the WTC Quarterfinals. All in all, six tournament weeks out of seven, and there's now way anybody going deep into these events such as Mehul will assuredly be is going to stay fresh. Fatigue will likely create opportunities for underdogs such as Gaskell, and maybe even as far down the chain as guys like Girsh, to make a little more noise than usual. It'll be a grind of attrition more than anything.

[Brian Swartz]

So about a week before Christmas I decided to get sick(still am). Then, with the thread already behind due to that and the usual hectic nonsense of the food business heading into the holiday including particularly epic fail by a certain employee(now ex-employee) whose work naturally fell to me(who else), a West Michigan windstorm took out power for a significant part of the area for a while. We were pretty average in that we were out for all of Christmas Eve and half of Christmas -- there are some who still won't get it back till later today. Mother Nature* taking revenge on us for an absurdly mild year, including a new record high of nearly 60 on the 23rd?

*No, I don't actually believe in this concept.

In any case, all of this kept me from being able to manage players or check in on things during the climax of the late summer, the US Open. And so, it is now time for me to spam the thread. Again :P. Hold on to your hats, ladies and gentlemen. With no more ado .. .

July

When last I left off, the mid-year report had just finished post-Wimbledon. This part is the easiest, because everyone was off so nothing really happened worth mentioning. At all. Heh.

[Brian Swartz]

2042 Summer Olympic Games
New Haven, Connecticut -- Hardcourt

It was just four years ago that a Sri Lankan made the singles Olympic draw for the first time; Mehul reached the third round, the round of 16 in the 64-draw format, despite being very much still a youngish 22-year-old and the clay surface at the time. Expectations are much higher here as he is in his prime. Due to the hectic schedule I've mentioned, a number of top players including Iglar and Benda chose not to participate here. That will help them in the Masters, USO, etc. to come, but how can you turn your back on your country? Those opportunities come up every year -- the Olympics are forever though and a unique honor. Girsh was here as well for his first shot at the Games.

Doubles didn't go so well, with a first-round loss as Girsh/Mehul were matched up with the 2-seeds from Sweden. This was actually not a bad thing in the overall scheme as it left more energy for singles where there was more chance to make some noise. Girish Girsh was seeded 9th, and had to play probably the toughest matchup for him in the first round. Swede Olav Birkeland, who had ended his Australian Open at the beginning of the year earlier than expected, did it again by a 7-6(7), 4-6, 6-3 final. In a match where Girsh was the better player by a hair, Birkeland needed only five break chances to convert twice, while Girsh could do no better in eight opportunities. A fairly monstrous disappointment here to go out in the first round, with only two lost matches to show for this year's Olympics. This is not the 'big summer push' that he was hoping for.

Anil Mehul was the top seed and prohibitive favorite with the two other legs of the 'Big Three' sitting it out. Having come back from his latest unjustified, extended vacation, Marcel Bahana was a potential threat in the quarterfinals. The price of his inattention this year quickly came due though as Mehul dominated 6-4, 6-1. The joy of advancing to the medal round was tempered by the sight of Julian Hammerstein opposite in the semifinals. Although he's mostly sworn off singles, he was here and still in good condition. The three-year-long trend of no player winning twice in a row was kept intact as Hammerstein was the sharper man in a 6-4, 6-4 result. Seeded only 10th here, the Austrian was the one player that Mehul was not a clear favorite against, and on this day he had the better timing.

In the bronze medal match, Mehul easily dispatched Federer to at least place Sri Lanka on the podium, but this did not take away much of the sting of losing to his old rival. Hammerstein went on to outlast Gaskell in a 5-set final to take the gold and silver respectively.

[Brian Swartz]

Canada Masters

There wasn't time to reflect on the Olympic week for long. Girish Girsh had a bit more trouble than anticipated with Manfred Borrman(SWE) in his second-round match, but got through it 6-4, 7-6(1). Next up was a chance against American 8-seed Perry Mockler, but he couldn't quite get through after a good start and lost, 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-3. Mockler got better as the match went on, and once the second-set tiebreak went against him it was pretty much over.

Anil Mehul cruised through to the quarters, where he was Mockler's next foe. The American seized on his only break chance to force a tiebreak in the first set, but it was still a fairly smooth straight-sets affair for Mehul. Benda was next, the German having the advantage in terms of rest, but it wasn't enough as Mehul kept on going, 7-5, 6-3. That left Iglar v. Mehul XX as the final, and after dropping a tough tiebreak in the opening set it was clear the upset wouldn't happen. 7-6(6), 6-2, a good event for both men but the Czech no. 1 takes the title here and Anil didn't have enough left to defend his crown from a year ago.

Cincinatti Masters

Girsh had the misfortune of having Birkeland in his draw again, this time in the second round. The Swedish hardcourt specialist has been his kryptonite this year, knocking him out both in Australia and the Olympics, but this time Girsh got the better of him, 6-4, 7-6(4). It could have gone either way again, much like before he was the superior player but only by a hair. In this case, he converted 2 of 3 break chances against 1 of 3 for Birkeland in a serve-dominated match.

No. 4 Perry Hogue awaited next. Girsh has come up just short time after time against Top-10 competition, but this time the ever-consistent veteran American didn't have quite enough. The opening set was key, with Girsh taking a tense tiebreaker, then after dropping the second, playing a decisive third well for a 7-6(7), 3-6, 6-2 victory! Hogue was the more consistent player over the course of the match, but some loose service games at the beginning of the third cost him badly and Girsh moved on to the quarterfinals, his first appearance at this stage in a big event. He had a good chance to progress further; his foe was Cestmir Marcek, not as tough an out as Hogue usually, but he was firing on all cylinders and won 7-5, 6-3, out-acing Girsh 13-7 and converting 4 of 5 break chances.

For his part, Mehul had a rough start to his third-round match with Andres Blanco, dropping the first set before coming back to win it 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. The same routine played out against Bahana in the quarterfinals, and then in the semis it was rising American Radek Smitala, fresh off back-to-back upsets of Benda and Mockler, looking it to make it three straight. Those thoughts were snuffed out with a tough, focused effort by Mehul, who made it to another final 6-4, 6-4 despite 11 aces by Smitala. Iglar was there once again, and while Anil stole the first set this time he couldn't keep up the pace, losing 4-6, 6-3, 6-0. Still, to make both finals these last couple weeks with as many matches as he's been playing is an excellent achievement.

During the same week as Cincinatti, Prakash Mooljee took his first shot at an amateur event finally, an indoor tournament in Bergen, Norway. Perhaps he waited too long to take the plunge; it was an easy run for him, blasting aside all comers to take the title in both singles and doubles.

[Brian Swartz]

2042 US OPEN

Prakash Mooljee was seeded 16th, and won a couple of easy matches before running into Jurco in the third round. There he was served a fresh bagel and breadstick in another beatdown. Doubles went better, as he was once again runner-up.

Girish Girsh had an easy time of things for a couple of matches, then met 24th-seed Jens Petersen(DEN) in the third round. They'd met once in a big challenger a few years back with Girsh winning a tight 3-setter. Petersen is now 27 and pretty much at the peak of his game, but Girsh had the advantage and had to go through a couple of tough sets but advanced 6-1, 7-6(6), 7-5. He then had his fourth shot at Pierce Gaskell, all of the previous three coming in Masters or Slams also. For the third time in those four meetings, he took a set off the American but he still has yet to win after a 6-3, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(4) defeat. The frustrating thing about this one is that he was the better player but didn't convert enough of his opportunities. Gaskell had to go through 154 points on his serve, compared to only 124 for Girsh, but the world no. 6 converted a couple more break chances and prevailed in the tiebreaker that clinched the match. Yet another one of those where Girsh was there, played well enough to win, but didn't make the breakthrough when it mattered. He matches last year's 4th-round result, still as good as he's ever done in a Slam.

Anil Mehul was looking to improve on a quarterfinal finish last year, and in the fourth round it was his turn to contend with Olav Birkeland. The Swede gave him all he wanted to handle and then some. Mehul won an epic first-set tiebreak, but still couldn't shake him completely and while he eventually won in straight sets, it was far from easy. 7-6(11), 6-4, 6-3 was the scoreline, no question the better man won but Birkeland's 17 aces made it a real fight despite the fact that he only managed to break Mehul once on the day. David Alvarez, no longer a real threat on this surface, bowed out in straight sets relatively meekly in the quarters. Then it was Bjorn Benda again in the semis; Benda had been forced to rally from two sets down against Gaskell just to get here, showing his championship experience to hold off the advance of time and the rising American one more time at least. He wasn't done either. In this case fatigue still on his side, the German pushed through in another five-setter against Mehul, 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-3 to reach the final, where he was unsurprisingly dumped by Iglar in straights. The semifinal was a very even match, with Benda's serve(21-13 aces) proving the difference in a paper-thin match that could have gone either way. It allows him, at least theoretically, to still have a chance at knocking Mehul out of the year-end #2 spot ...

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Quarterfinals

Matchups

The first quaterfinal looks like a travesty at first glance, with #1 Czech Republic facing off against #2 Spain. But the Spaniards are very much a paper-only #2, as we demonstrated in group play; since they didn't even win their group, they get a tough draw although it could have been easier than this.

#12 Austria against #7 Germany(on clay). Austria, without Hammerstein who has sworn off WTC play for a while now, on Benda's favorite surface? They have no chance.

#3 United States vs. #9 Mexico(indoor). The surface doesn't really matter here; Mexico doesn't have the horses. The US features Hogue(No. 4) and Gaskell(No. 6); their opponent is fortunate to be here as they don't have a Top-50 singles player.

#14 Sri Lanka vs. #19 Serbia(clay). Another talent mismatch; Serbia's singles players are 46th and 87th in the world; even on clay that's not good enough.

Monday: A. Mehul d. R. Mrakovic, 6-1, 6-1, 6-4
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. H. Radisic, 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
Wednesday: S. Kucerovic/S. Kelecevic d. G. Girsh/A. Mehul, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6(6)
Thursday: A. Mehul d. H. Radisic, 6-1, 6-1, 6-0
Friday: G. Girsh d. R. Mrakovic, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1

Sri Lanka defeats Serbia, 4-1!!

A typical win for us, four easy singles win and the loss in doubles. All three of the other ties were just as one-sided; by the end of Thursday, the four semifinalists were determined. There were no surprises, with the Czech Republic defeating Spain 4-1, Germany blanking Austria 5-0, and the US 4-1 over Mexico.

We move up a spot to 14th. The semifinals in two weeks will feature #1 Czech Republic against #7 Germany, and #3 United States against us, both on ... clay. This is a definite advantage for Germany who has a real chance for the upset now over the defending champions. For us, it's a small disadvantage. Hogue isn't much of a clay-courter but neither are we; Gaskell has some skill on the dirt and will be a tougher customer. The US figures to have doubles locked up, so to win, we need Mehul to take both his matches and Girsh to upset one of the Americans, probably Hogue is the most likely. This is not an impossibility but we are definitely underdogs at this stage. Probably 2:1 in favor of the United States. We'll see how it goes.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 25) -- 15,510

The latest career achievement lists have Iglar up to 8th in weeks at #1(97, 8 more than Alastra), 5th in Slam titles(9), and tied for 5th in Masters Shields with Runer(at 14). His strategy this year has to been to focus on dominating hardcourts, and he's done just that. This does leave the door somewhat open for others to prevent him from becoming just the fifth man to win three World Tour Finals however ... Iglar's record this year is a ridiculous 71-3, and he looks set to finish another historically dominant year after a small hiccup(by his standards) last season.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 26) -- 10,800

Mehul is 1-5 against Iglar this year, 60-5 against everyone else. That, and the '1' which was the Wimbledon title of course, are pretty much the story of his successful rise to best, if still very distant, challenger to Iglar's throne.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 28) -- 10,180

The inspired run to the USO final and continued clay dominance showed that Benda is not done being a major force yet.

4. Perry Hogue(USA, 28) -- 6,280

Hogue looks to be fading again after an outstanding first half of the year. Yet nobody is coming to take his place ... yet.

5. David Alvarez(ESP, 29) -- 5,370

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 26) -- 5,290

I said at the outset of the year he should be Top-5 by the end, and Gaskell is nearly there. It's only a matter of time before he replaces Hogue as the #1 American. The collapse against Benda in the USO quarterfinals was a major missed opportunity. He also lost an epic 5-setter to the German in the AO, a five-setter to Mehul at the French, and in four to Iglar at Wimbledon, all four Slam quarterfinals. You have to think he'll smash through that wall soon, he's overdue at this point.

7. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 28) -- 5,020

Still just good enough to hang around. Tick tock.

8. Perry Mockler(USA, 26) -- 4,850

Mockler has been better than I expected this year. Nowhere was this clearer than at the USO where he knocked off Hogue in straight sets, then was the only player to take a set off Iglar in the semifinals.

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 25) -- 3,375

Progress really stalled for Herrera after the clay season.

10. Roger Federer(SUI, 25) -- 3,230

With Bahana floundering, Federer stepped into the opening created. I don't see him doing a whole lot more however.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles(unchanged), 174th to 238th doubles. Mehul has only 7 doubles matches this year, down from 18 last year, and most of those are in the WTC. He's already on 61 wins which is two more than last year, and needs just four more to surpass the 64 from two years ago which was a personal best. With two Masters, the WTC semis at least, and the WTF yet to go he should easily make it into the 70s. Paris and the WTF are places where, if he plays his cards right, he should have a real chance to take home the title. It'll be a disappointing finish if he doesn't snag at least one, and closing the gap with Iglar means he needs to take advantage of all non-hardcourt opportunities.


Girish Girsh -- 16th to 15th singles, 114th to 159th doubles. Stagnation still here. The Olympics were disappointing but he did well, if not great, afterwards. Breaking through against the top players, esp. when he's played well enough to win, is still the goal here. He's knocked on the door but hasn't opened it yet except for the win over Hogue in Cincinatti. He should be able to improve on his Shanghai result last year(second round), but will need a strong finish between there and Paris to make any ground on the Top 10 heading into the new year.


Prakash Mooljee -- 20th to 25th juniors, first 'senior' rankings of 1828th singles, 2853rd doubles. There are three more 'A' junior tournaments left, but aside from that it's almost time for Mooljee to make the jump to the professional ranks. The Bergen result indicates that he's ready. I thought he'd finish higher in the juniors but frankly that doesn't matter much at all.


Manager Ranking -- 6th to 5th, 23.3k to 24.3k points. 4th-7th are tightly packed, only about 400 points separate them. I was 4th briefly, and will probably get back there by the end of the year. oprice's record continues to rise, up to over 63k after the USO. Insane.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Updated Standings

In

Antonin Iglar -- 13,030
Anil Mehul -- 8,390
Bjorn Benda -- 8,330

Iglar has YE#1 sewn up as can obviously be seen, but the battle for #2 is very much still a thing and Mehul could easily lose it if he slips up over the final month or so. If he plays as he can in the indoor events at Paris and the WTF though, the inside track is definitely his.


Probable

Perry Hogue -- 5,130
David Alvarez -- 4,610
Cestmir Marcek -- 4,520
Pierce Gaskell -- 4,250
Perry Mockler -- 4,200


Long Shots

Thiago Herrera -- 3,275

It appears extremely unlikely that there will be any controversy this year; the field appears to be set. The final order of finish for much of the Top 8 is likely to come down to who does well at the Tour Finals.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Semifinals

And then there were four. It is heady territory for Sri Lanka, having truly made it to the battle of the titans. Only the elite nations make it this far; and here we are, underdogs of course but just two ties, six match victories from a once-unreachable goal of becoming world champions. At this stage, there are few gimmes and most of the opposition are elite players. You've got to be
good to have a chance, but luck plays it's part as well.

That luck appeared to have Germany on it's side more than anyone else in their matchup with the Czech Republic . The Germans have a roster full of clay-court specialists, which is a double-edged sword but this was to be their third tie contested on the dirt in a row. On any other surface, the Czechs would have an almost guaranteed victory. For the USA and Sri Lanka, it favored the Americans somewhat but wouldn't be a major changer either way.

Monday

Antonin Iglar(CZE, 1st) vs. Harald Oncken(DEU, 29th)

Doesn't matter what the surface is here, Iglar figured to be a shoo-in. He backed that up by surrendering just three games to the German #2 as the Czech Republic took a 1-0 lead over Germany.

Perry Hogue(USA, 4th) vs. Girish Girsh(SRI, 15th)

This was the singles match where an upset was most possible for us. Girsh had beaten Hogue in Cincinatti under conditions more favorable to the American, and he had to steal one if we were to have a realistic chance. The first two sets were competitive and split, but Girsh dominated the third and went on to a 6-3, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 win! Hogue had 15 aces, but lost nearly half of the rest of his service points. A fine display of returning and patient baseline maneuvering here gives Girsh a second straight win in this matchup, and with a 1-0 lead we have put the pressure on the US right away.


Tuesday

Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 7th) vs. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 3rd)

Benda might be the one player Marcek has no chance against on clay. There were a couple of tight sets, but as expected the tie was leveled at 1-all with Bjorn's, 6-4, 6-0, 7-6(4) triumph in straights.

Pierce Gaskell(USA, 6th) vs. Anil Mehul(SRI, 2nd)

A commanding lead could now be had if Mehul could hold off Gaskell, far from a sure thing as he's unquestionably the Americans' best clay player. Gaskell had 17 aces, but even that was not enough to hold off a strong, focused effort. Mehul prevails 7-6(3), 6-2, 7-6(4) in a match that was competitive enough to go a while longer.


Wednesday

L. Nedved/J. Simunek(CZE, 16th/103rd) vs. H. Arendt/R. Ahlmann(DEU, 30th/80th)

Mastery of the dirt was the key here. The Germans had it, and cruised to relatively easy straight-sets win. They lead now 2-1, with the defending champions one defeat away from elimination.

O. Challenger/C. Dring(USA, 7th/13th) vs. G. Girsh/A.Mehul(SRI, 174th/234th)

This was the one matchup where the Americans held all the cards. A 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 scoreline showed that to increasingly be the case as the match went on. The lead was cut in half to 2-1, and the US stayed alive.


Thursday

Antonin Iglar(CZE, 1st) vs. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 3rd

The critical moment comes at a rematch of the RG final, in which Iglar snatched away Benda's crown. If he could repeat that performance, Marcek would be a near shoo-in on the final day against Oncken and the Czechs would escape. He took the first set, but in a reversal of the matchup at the French that would be all he would get. Benda delivered the clinching rubber here, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, and Germany moves on to the final!

Perry Hogue(USA, 4th) vs. Anil Mehul(SRI, 2nd)

Given Hogue's flagging form of late, Mehul was a substantial favorite here. He needed to take care of business, as Girsh-Gaskell would be a tough ask tomorrow. For such an occasion it was a stunningly one-sided match. Anil smashed the American who had once beaten him in six of their first seven meetings, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3. It was a comprehensive and frankly humiliating display -- and Sri Lanka pulls off the upset! They will meet Germany in the WTC Final!


Friday

A bit anticlimactic now with two dead rubbers was the final day. Marcek cruised by Oncken as expected, making the final count in the first semi 3-2 in favor of Germany. Meanwhile, Gaskell and Girsh staged a true classic. 19 aces came from the Americans racquet to just 4 for Girsh(with an equal number of double faults), but despite that it was as even as could be overall. Someone had to win, and at the end it was Girsh prevailing 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(2), 2-6, 6-4 to put the exclamation point on a 4-1 victory! It was also a huge moment for Girish Girsh as this week he had his second and third top-10 scalps of the year, including a first win over Gaskell in five meetings, all in the past 12 months.

Final Preview

Sri Lanka moves up another couple spots to 12th, but more importantly was the all-important choice of ground for the matchup with Germany. If they got their favored clay again it would be all but hopeless; if not, I liked our chances. In the middle of December, we will meet for the year's championship ... on clay. I'd really like to know who they paid off. This is four straight ties now for them on their favored surface, and all three of the knockout rounds. My prediction is unfortunately for a 3-2 loss. We should handle Oncken twice, but we'd have to either win doubles or have somebody beat Benda in singles to have a chance. On the dirt, that's a near-impossibility. We'll give it our best of course, and Mehul did push him to five sets at the French Open, but the chances of Benda having another off day like that are not good -- and it still wasn't quite enough. It seems that the powers that be have decided to virtually gift-wrap the title to Germany this year, but we're still going to have our shot.

Coming Up

One week off, then we head to Shanghai before finishing the year with the run-up to Paris and the Tour Finals.

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

Girish Girsh had a couple of fairly easy matches against a qualifier and a journeyman before running into 5-seed David Alvarez, a player he should beat most of the time by this point. His recent impressive form didn't carry over though in a 7-6(1), 6-3 loss. It was pretty close, really the difference was in the key moments. Not a horrible setback but fairly disappointing, even if he did still go one round further than last year. It looked a little better when the in-form Alvarez upset Benda in the quarterfinals though ...

Anil Mehul easily dispatched Federer again in the third round, but had a tougher time than expected with Blanco after that. 7-5, 7-5 he advanced in straight sets, but it looked like the fatigue was beginning to show again. Had he not come up big in saving all six break points against him he could easily have lost. In the semis though he crushed Alvarez easily, including a first-set bagel, and once again reached the final against Iglar. After taking a long tiebreak, he didn't have quite enough left and lost one of those matches where the legend was off his game a bit vulnerable. 6-7(9), 6-4, 6-4 was the count, a good effort considering how much he's been playing but short of the mark once again and the second of his two Masters titles last year goes back to the normal owner.

[Brian Swartz]

October/November

Mehul continues to rest at every opportunity, able to get two weeks off in a row here. Girsh however needs the matches at this point to get ready for the off-season. First up for him was the Stockhom Open(250, Indoor), where he proceeded to blast through the first three rounds without losing a game! Grimaldo was a routine win in the semis, leaving Olav Birkeland to spoil his dreams once again, 6-7(5), 7-5, 6-3. This loss was particularly dispiriting since on an indoor surface Girsh should be far the better player. Once again he outplayed the Swede, but had to deal with 21 aces and did nothing with 8 break points despite winning nearly a third of his return points overall.

Back at it again the next week, he was in Valencia(500, Indoor). Here he was the third seed, meeting up with Alvarez again in the semifinals. It didn't look good at first, but Girsh rallied for a big 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(2) win in which he was clearly better over the last couple of sets. An important victory after disappointments the last couple of weeks. Another top-ten foe, Thiago Herrera, proved less of a problem in the final, and Girsh claims his first 500-level title! At 23 and a half, he does so just three weeks younger than Mehul got his first(and only) 500 crown, another example of the uncanny similarity of their career tracks. This win also gives him 51 singles match victories on the year, a new high for him; Mehul set his personal mark in Shanghai, so both are just adding to the best years of their careers now as the season winds down.

Next up ... the Paris Masters.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters

Girish Girsh got through his first match easily, leaving the success of the final Masters for him up to a third-round encounter with Perry Mockler. Mockler had disappointingly come back from a set down against him just a few months ago in Canada which was their first-ever meeting. Girsh settled that score here 6-4, 6-3, in a surprisingly dominant showing without a single break point allowed. Advancing to his second big quarterfinal of the year, he was sure to see it ended against Benda. He managed to push the first set to a tiebreak though, and won it surprisingly easily to upend the script. Two sets later, he'd claimed a solid but close win, a huge upset over the world no. 3 and definitely the biggest win of his career to date, 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-3! The German former no. 1 is definitely not at his best indoors but he was much the fresher player and still is more skilled and athletic even at his age. Iglar was up next in the semifinals, and while he dispatched Girsh in straight sets for the sixth time in as many meetings, it was their closest match yet. A fine way to close out the season for Girsh!

Anil Mehul basically yawned his way through the draw; he is now far better than almost all competition on this surface. T. Herrera, Alvarez, and shocking semifinalist John Condon all went down easily. Condon won only a single game after having dumped both Gaskell and Hogue in a pair of massive upsets for him -- the Phillipine star had never in his career made the quarterfinals of any big event off of clay up to this point. And so it was yet another final against Iglar. He didn't play badly at all but was the more fatigued player and his serve deserted him too often in a 6-3, 5-7, 6-2 loss. New chapter, same script.

[Brian Swartz]

Final Race Standings

Antonin Iglar -- 14,780
Anil Mehul -- 9,440
Bjorn Benda -- 8,940
Perry Hogue -- 5,700
David Alvarez -- 5,350
Cestmir Marcek -- 4,890
Pierce Gaskell -- 4,840
Perry Mockler -- 4,590

The field is split from those of Benda's generation(Hogue, Alvarez, Marcek) and Iglar's(Mehul, Gaskell, Mockler). With Bahana's disappointing often-disappearing act, Generation Flash has yet to make an appearance at the tour finals. Iglar will of course finish #1 again, but anything could happen with the players in the 4-8 spots. In between, Anil Mehul needs to win to guarantee the #2 spot at the end of the year, but in all reality finishing first in his group will almost certainly do it . That would mean Benda would, at best, go up against Iglar in the semifinals. It will be a huge upset if another Iglar-Mehul doesn't happen here, and once again Anil doesn't quite have enough time to get the rest needed to really be fresh. The Olympics this year are still having their effects felt: he's just won too much since then to get enough rest to get back to his best tennis.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals
Helsinki, Finland


Group Stage

There was one surprise in the initial draw, with Benda being placed in the B Group along with Iglar. Mehul's foes were to be Hogue(4th), Alvarez(5th), and Gaskell(7th). As the round-robin matches played out, there were few surprises. He crushed Alvarez, got through a fairly tough one against Hogue 7-5, 6-4, and took a routine victory over Gaskell for a perfect mark. On the other side, Iglar was perfect as well and Benda beat the other two(Marcek and Mockler). None of this surprised anyone a whole lot.


Semifinals

Anil Mehul met Benda in the first match, and the year-end #2 ranking was to be finally determined. There was a slight chance that Benda could still take it, but he'd need to win the title here. Mehul dominated the first set, and was good enough to handle a tiebreak in the second for a 6-1, 7-6(3) victory. Iglar was also successful against Gaskell on the other side in straight sets.


Final

And so it was that the two titans met for the 10th time this year. Antonin Iglar was bidding to become the fourth man to win the tour finals three times; Mehul going for his first, is somewhat the better indoor player but of course Iglar's overall resume is well known and he was fresher also. As always, he had achieved his goal by giving himself a chance. And like at Wimbledon, he was rewarded here. Mehul returned exceptionally well today, and saved 8 of 9 break points in a 6-4, 6-4 victory that broke the usual mold of serve domination on the indoor courts. He broke the Czech three times; it was an uneven match with both players having loose games at times. Mehul takes a second of the five great pillars of tennis; there's no question who the best is, but he's had one heck of a year as the clear #2 now with this title. Given how many matches he's played over the last three months, it's really a pretty amazing accomplishment.


Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee reached the third round in both singles and doubles at the Orange Bowl('A' Tier). Another rough draw ensured he ended his participation there.


Coming Up

In two weeks, the WTC Final awaits. My projection hasn't changed -- Germany is a considerable favorite to win a close tie on their favored clay. But we've got a chance, as happened this last week. The following week, Mooljee's final junior event at the Casablanca Cup will be played, and that will do it for 2042.

[Brian Swartz]

2042 World Team Cup Finals
Germany vs. Sri Lanka, Clay

So leading up to this, I thought for a while about what possibilities there might be for us to come up with an upset. I didn't think of anything realistic. 3-2 Germany seemed almost certain. But you know, that's why they play the matches ...


Monday -- Bjorn Benda(3rd) vs. Girish Girsh(11th)

Benda's not losing to a second-tier player on clay. This was Germany's most favorable rubber of the whole thing. After a 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 drubbing, they led 1-0.


Tuesday -- Harald Oncken(29th) vs. Anil Mehul(2nd)

This was even more one-sided, with Mehul handing out at triple-bagel. No break points faced, total points were 72-17. Yowzer. Even more one-sided than expected. 1-all.


Wednesday -- H.Arendt/R. Wagel vs. G. Girsh/A. Mehul

This was one rubber that had just the slightest smidgeon of doubt attached. We were still really up against it here, but just maybe .... nope. 7-6(6), 6-2, 6-2. Winning that tiebreak would have helped, but 19 double faults are the only reason it wasn't even worse. Once the rallies started it was no contest. 2-1 Germany.


Thursday -- Bjorn Benda(3rd) vs. Anil Mehul(2nd)

The marquee matchup, and one that would have given me a glimmer of potential hope -- Mehul did lead 2-0 at RG -- if not for the fatigue factor. Benda was also the fresher player, which meant hopeless again. He's still the world's dominant clay player. Sometimes I hate being right. 7-6(3), 6-1, 6-2. Would have been nice to put up a little more resistance after the first set, but the ending was written. With this, Germany clinches the 2042 World Team Cup Championship, and we are runners-up. Sigh.


Friday -- Harald Oncken(29th) vs. Girsh Girsh(11th)

The final-day rubber is dead. It was actually the best match of the week, closer than expected. But once again the expected result came about, Girsh prevailing 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5. The blip of the second half of the match notwithstanding, he gets the win.

Germany defeats Sri Lanka, 3-2!

So we are literally one rubber short of the goal. This was just our second year in Level 1, and our first past the group stage though. Given that, it is one heck of a year. And beating the Germans on clay -- not going to happen with Benda around, unfortunately. We dip a spot to 13th, and wait to see who our opponents will be next year.

In just three weeks time, 2053 will be upon us with the first round of group play. A brief respite, and we'll be right back at it hoping to get back to this point again.

[Brian Swartz]

WTC Playoffs

With the completion of this year's playoffs, the Level 1 field is set for next year and it's time to start the annual data dump.

** Ireland(11th) vs. Croatia(15th) -- Led by Siobhan O'Doherty(41st), the best player for either nation, Ireland is one of those marginal nations that is a little too good for Level 2, not good enough for Level 1. They went down two years ago, and lost to Mexico in an attempt to get back up last year. Croatia has been at the top level for almost 15 years straight, but they've only made it out of the group stage once in the past four years and appear to be on the decline. They had just enough to skate by here, staying up 3-2 and Ireland will have to try again.

** Italy(6th) vs. Phillipines(16th) -- This was a walk-over, as the Phillipines has yet to find a second player to go with Condon. They fall to Level 2 and it will probably be just the beginning of their decline. Italy suffered a humiliating 5-0 loss to France two years ago, then was beaten by Denmark last year in what has been a long road for them to get back up to Level 1 after nearly suffering the insult of being demoted to Level 3 just five years ago. With two Top-30 players now in Mugur Kinczllers and Tobia Alberti, they are more than deserving and should be one of the better nations the next few years. Both players are shy of their 24th birthday, right in Girsh's age range, and should continue to get even somewhat better.

** Luxembourg(20th) vs. Switzerland(14th) -- Luxembourg has been on the rise the last few years, falling 3-2 to Austria in a playoff last year to prevent making it to Level 1. They've been fueled by the efforts of Mikaila Groeneveldt, but his decision to focus on doubles weakens their prospects considerably. The Swiss have recent Top-10 addition Roger Federer and fading veteran Vito Bonamoni(42nd), more than enough to get them by 4-1. After a narrow loss to Argentina last year sent them down, they bounce right back up and hope to stick around this time. It seems unlikely that Luxembourg will have enough to mount another meaningful challenge ...

** Russia(7th) vs. Sweden(21st) -- Russia is a sinking ship with the Topolski/Goncharenko pair now gone, while the Swedes are on the rise behind Olav Birkeland(18th), well familiar to us unfortunately, and Elias Trulsen(71st), a decent 23-year-old on the rise. That wasn't quite enough, with Russia winning 3-2 to stay up behind veteran Pavel Bestemianov and a youngster to watch, Afasny Bereznity(41st). Bereznity is just shy of his 21st birthday, and is making a name for himself already. Russia is not nearly what they were, but they hang around narrowly -- Sweden is more than good enough to be in the top tier, but they'll have to spend next year trying to bounce back up. I think their chances of doing so are excellent.

Italy and Switzerland move up, the Phillipines and Sweden drop down. Overall this is an improvement but Sweden is better than a number of Tier-1 nations; they will be missed.


2043 World Team Cup Preview

Sri Lanka ends 2042 at 13th, a fine rise of nine spots from 22nd. We have another favorable draw, sitting in Group 1 with Denmark(14th), Italy(6th), and Mexico(9th). Mexico is the weakest, with Denmark and Italy just good enough to sport a challenge if everything goes wrong. Italy will be up first on grass, and they are definitely the toughest opponent so we'll know where we stand right away. I expect a perfect run through group play and for us to easily take first; I can't imagine a non-disastrous scenario in which we don't advance to the knockout rounds again. The USA and Czech Republic figure to be the two nations that pose the biggest threat at the business end, unless of course Germany gets absurdly lucky again. We really should be able to handle anyone else, and anything short of making the semifinals will be a total failure. By the end of the year, Sri Lanka should crack the Top 10 for the first time.

[Brian Swartz]

2042 Final Top Ten Rankings

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 26) -- 15,680

I ran out of superlatives to describe Iglar's play a while back. This was his best year ever, an 86-5 overall record which is slightly better than his best two years ago in which he lost six times. It's roughly the 5th-best season ever, and the only man he's looking up to in that regard is Gorritepe. He did not lose a single hardcourt match all year long. In the record-book chase, he's 7th in weeks at #1(110), 5th in Slam titles(9), tied for 5th in WTF titles(2), and 5th as well in Masters Shields(16). He's in his prime, at the peak of his powers, and he's not even going to begin to go anywhere for at least a couple of years. He's got a ways to go before he can think about cracking the money list, but that too is just a matter of time.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 26) -- 10,990

A fabulous year without question: Mehul has emerged as the only significant thorn in Iglar's side as he won Wimbledon and the Tour Finals. Those are the only two times that the Czech legend lost off of clay this year. His previous high of 64 singles victories was annihilated with a 77-13 mark this year, and the record was 75-5 against other players.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 28) -- 9,440

The only significant flaw in another good year for Benda was losing the RG final to Iglar. Aside from that, he led Germany to the WTC crown and kept his clay kingdom intact. His gradual decline will continue, but it doesn't look like there anyone who can take away the #3 spot from him.

4. Perry Hogue(USA, 28) -- 5,700

It's another big gap down to here. Hogue faded the second half of the year, but his career has been full of rises and falls. It looks like he's finally done and the slide will continue, but it's not yet certain.

5. David Alvarez(ESP, 30) -- 5,550

Alvarez has done better than I thought for longer than I thought. Having said that, life on the far side of 30 is never kind to a tennis player.

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 26) -- 5,240

I picked Gaskell to be Top-5 by the end of the year; well, I was a little off the mark, but not much. He continues to overplay, but flattened all previous achievements in an 80-win season. Pierce is the only vaguely viable threat to Mehul and Benda, and he should bypass Hogue and Alvarez fairly easily.

7. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 28) -- 5,040

Marcek actually posted his best year this season at 61-19, just a hair better than the last two. The lack of many compelling upcoming threats has made him just good enough to forestall the advance of time, but he's no longer a thorn for the top players.

8. Perry Mockler(USA, 26) -- 4,590

Mockler could replace Hogue on the US WTC squad this season. Either way he's had himself a banner year, highlighted by his first Tour Finals and a semifinal appearance at the US Open.

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 25) -- 3,445

I'm not sure what Herrera's ceiling will be. He was the surprise #2 on clay this year, bumping Alvarez out of that position, and will look to continue his assault on the top players. Results elsewhere were very underwhelming though, he's a one-trick pony at the moment.

10. Roger Federer(SUI, 26) -- 3,355

Federer did very well in the small events, but failed to make a single quarterfinal in either Masters or Slam play. Unless he does better on the bigger stages, he won't be taken seriously by the top players.

11. Girish Girsh(SRI, 23) -- 2,975

A little '+1' here to show that he's closing in on the Top 10. A big finish to the year at the Paris Masters in reaching the semifinals and knocking off Benda has him aiming for big things next year.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Annual Rankings Review

Anil Mehul -- 3rd to 2nd singles, 180th to 246th doubles. 2042 could hardly have gone better. Mehul didn't defend either of his Masters titles but upgraded to a Wimbledon and Tour Finals. There are 10 big events not played on clay; he was in the final of nine of them, winning two. The one exception was the US Open, where he lost in five sets to Benda in the semifinals. He's at his peak, and his goal for '43 is really very simple:

Do it again. It would be unrealistic to improve on this season, which will likely end up the best of his career.


Girish Girsh -- 19th to 11th singles, 85th to 247th doubles. As the year went on, Girsh had an increasingly good second half. He's still a little too inconsistent, but he pulled himself out of the funk he'd been in. Overall, he's still tracking a hair better than Mehul at the same age(he was ranked 13th). His record was 55-23, vs. 52-20 for the senior player three years ago. Girsh was just 1-6 against the top three but 7-8 against the 4th-8th place players; he's good enough to hang with that group but to get to their level you need to be a little better. He should be ready to take that step.

The minimum goal this year is to make the World Tour Finals.


Prakash Mooljee -- 11th to 27th juniors, initial senior rankings at 1828th singles, 2873rd doubles. Mooljee is ranked higher in singles after one amateur win than Manohar. He'll have to play probably three more of those but will definitely move into futures as soon as he escapes(Top 1000 ranking). At present my best projections are that he's done well as a junior and will end up roughly in Girsh's territory in terms of his achievements as a player. Too early to tell more than that. Given that he started off 'behind', i.e. a little rawer coming in, that's a fine place to be. In a couple year we'll have a lot better sense of things. Train, train, and train some more will continue to be the mantra in the meantime.


Anil Manohar -- 2351st to 2324th singles, 602nd to 574th doubles. It appears he's hit rock bottom for the time being. The trainer evaluation is up to 4.38, up 0.07. A pretty firm decision has been made to keep the 40-year-old active for two more years and then retire him to trainer duty. By that point he should be close to 4.5, and he can't realistically get a whole lot higher than that. That will leave a six-year gap for the next upcoming player behind Mooljee, which is about the right amount as 6-7 years after that, Mehul should be ready to go out as a 5-point trainer.


Manager Ranking -- 10th to 4th, 20.2k points to 25.6k. Another good year especially at the end. I expect to move up to 2nd place behind only oprice by the end of this season. And under best-case scenarios, it would take close to a decade to make up the ground to him, if it's even possible.

[Brian Swartz]

2043 Preview

1. Antonin Iglar(92%, 10.25, +0.1)

Well that's a little scary ... Iglar's put in enough work to improve his baseline game a bit more lately. I would have said he's at his peak but apparently not quite yet. Bad news for everybody else, but I don't see how he can do much more than he's already doing.

2. Anil Mehul(92%, 9.87, -0.02)

Mehul's at the point where he's just trying to maintain his level. Despite the miniscule negative number here I think he's still getting just a hair better, but will probably begin the earliest stages of decline by the end of the year.

3. Bjorn Benda(86%, 9.81, -0.09)

For the first time we can see significant erosion in the abilites of the German former champion. I think he's still #1 on clay for another year, but after that things will probably go south for him more quickly.

4. Perry Hogue(83%, 9.47, -0.11)

Hogue outperformed his skills for the first half of this year, but he's reached the point where all the mental toughness in the world doesn't seem to be enough anymore. I expect a significant slide in '53 ... but I've underestimated him multiple times before.

5. David Alvarez(84%, 9.46, -0.17)

That's just an ugly eval there. It's been nice knowing ya, Mr. Alvarez. There are too many who have surpassed him on clay now. It wouldn't surprise if he fell out of the Tour Finals field completely.

6. Pierce Gaskell(91%, 9.73, +0.06)

Gaskell still has some life in him to be sure, although he seemed to lose focus the second half of the year. It's a travesty though if he finishes the next year lower than 4th. He's too good to be kept down any longer. This should be his best season.

7. Cestmir Marcek(87%, 9.52, -0.02)

Still fighting hard to hang on to what he's got. With Hogue and Alvarez potentially crashing, he could be relevant for at least another year.

8. Perry Mockler(90%, 9.33, ??)

Mockler snuck up on me this year. He had some good moments but I'm still not all that impressed with him. We'll see if he can hang around, but it's hard to see him moving up much.

9. Thiago Herrera(93%, 9.28, ??)

He's got the focus and strength to be a force on clay, but not the rally technique or speed to diversify. I don't see Thiago pushing his way up the charts the way Alvarez did.

10. Roger Federer(92%, 8.81, ??)

Federer has a fine serve, but frankly it's an insult to the current state of the tour that he's in the Top 10.

11. Girsh Girsh(97%, 9.75, +0.21)

There are no more legitimate excuses now; after a good training off-season Girsh should be an equal to Gaskell this year and better than anyone else outside the Top 3. If he's not pushing close to a Top 5 spot by the end of the year, it'll be a major disappointment.

12. Marcel Bahana(94%, 9.74, -0.14)

Yikes. It seems the time for him to get his act together has come and passed. Bahana can still be a factor, but doesn't appear to care enough to make it happen.

1828. Prakash Mooljee(91%, 7.27, +1.05)

A long way to climb, but off to a fine start.

2324. Anil Manohar(60%, 6.14, -0.08)

The end is visible from here.


There will probably be a couple of more surprises this year. Radek Smitala and Olav Birkeland cracked the Top 20 and may push higher; perhaps one of the youngsters will make a push. Italy's Mugur Kinczllers(23, 96%, 9.16) could make things interesting if he continues to improve but doesn't have the mental strength to really scare anyone. France's Davide Poilblan(22, ranked 21st) isn't quite ready yet, and neither seem to be any of the others. The depth at the top continues to weaken, which should open the door some for Girsh to rise. In fact, though it's some way off, I'm ready to make a bold prediction:

I'm calling Girish Girsh to be Sri Lanka's first #1 singles player. I think that sometime around 3 years from now, he will be the one who eventually takes the mantle from Antonin Iglar whenever his time comes to an end. I could be wrong, but I don't see anyone challenging in time to prevent this. Time will tell.

[Brian Swartz]

WTC Group Phase Round One
Group I: Italy vs. Sri Lanka, Grass

Monday: G. Girsh d. M. Kinczllers, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. T. Alberti, 6-0, 7-6(2), 7-6(5)
Wednesday: A.Mehul/G.Girsh d. X.Jue/A.Lepore, 6-4, 7-5, 6-4
Thursday: A. Mehul d. M. Kinczllers, 6-0, 6-1, 6-4
Friday: G. Girsh d. T. Alberti, 6-4, 6-0, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats Italy, 5-0!!

There were some tense moments on the second and third days, but when all was said and done we pulled through and smashed Italy without the loss of so much as a set. Kinczllers was low on recent matches which helped as he was rusty, but I doubt that changed things all that much. It's pleasing to crush our biggest group threat so convincingly. I'd expect more of the same basically in our remaining group ties; with two of the top five players in the world now by my evaluation, there are few who should be able to challenge us.

After the Australian Open, next up will be Mexico who beat Denmark 4-0. A win there will guarantee our spot atop Group 1. The latest rankings have us up to 12th again, just a hair behind Austria and Peru.

[Brian Swartz]

Looks like breaks for a few days and then thread-spamming shall be the way of things this winter. Such is the nature of the busy season. Strangely, I have Fri/Sat as my days off this week, which is just bizarre. But here's what's happened recently ...

January

Mehul took a couple of weeks off to rest, Mooljee did likewise, while Girish Girsh headed to the Auckland 250 in New Zealand. He was a semifinalist last year, while Mehul won it. As the third seed, he was favored over Federer and Herrera, both of him lost disappointingly early making the path even clearer.

An interesting semifinal matchup was against Mick Elder. The old war-horse is now 31, but has stabilized with his manager sticking with the game and learning a few things it appears; he doesn't overplay his guys as much. Elder is currently ranked a very credible 25th. He pushed it to three sets but Girsh outclassed him to make the final against Gustavo Caratti(ARG). Caratti had won both previous meetings, both on clay which is his specialty, but he's a credible hard-courter as well and gave Girsh more of a fight than he wanted. In reality, the Argentine played more than well enough to take the match in what would have been a fairly seismic upset for the 7-seed, but Girsh managed to split a pair of long tiebreaks before winning the third to take the title, 7-6(8), 6-7(10), 6-3. He saved 9 of 10 break points, and needed to as his serve was constantly under pressure. Overall a good debut for both players, and I expect the 23rd-ranked challenger to move up the rankings this year a la Smitala and Birkeland last season. He's only 23 and still getting better, definitely one of the leaders of the weak Generation Flash.

[Brian Swartz]

2043 Australian Open

Last year Mehul reached his second straight final here, while Girsh lost in the third round to Birkeland. It would be his worst Slam result of the '52 campaign, and he's hoping for better.

Both players got through their first few rounds easily; Girsh lost a tiebreak to rising American Gareth McCuskey but controlled the rest of the match, while Mehul was on cruise control. In the fourth round, he smacked down Birkeland in straight sets. Girsh Girsh, however, had a date with Bjorn Benda. At this stage in their respective careers, Girsh has reason to be optimistic on hardcourt. An opportunity here to prove last year's Paris QF win was no fluke.

Benda asserted his will right away as Girsh came out flat, and the first set was over quickly. Down a break in the second, he fought back but crumbled at the end. When he went down again in the third set, it looked over. He got back to even again at 4-4 though, and this time he wouldn't give it up, breaking again in the 12th game to take the set and stay alive. From there it was a matter of Benda's experience and big serve going up against Girsh's superior shotmaking from the baseline. He forced a 5th set fairly easily, and in the decider both players had chances early, particularly the German veteran. The tide slowly turned and things went Girsh's way at the end. He was held off for a while, but eventually pulled through 1-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 8-6. A fantastic, and potentially season-defining 'changing of the guard' moment here as he pulls off a dramatic comeback after trailing by two sets and a break to the 5-time Slam champion and former no. 1. It is just the second time in the last 5 years that Benda failed to reach the second week of a Slam(Wimbledon two years ago, l. Goncharenko was the other). And for Girsh, it is his first trip that far.

Anil Mehul had his first potential test of the tournament in the quarters, but he's dominated Pierce Gaskell, winning 10 of 11 career meetings including the past seven over a period of more than three years. Many have been in straight sets. After a quick opening-set bagel, it looked like more of the same. And then Gaskell had other ideas, quickly evening the match and then eking out the third to move one set from what would be a very disappointing defeat for Mehul. The fourth went to a tiebreak, and it was close but Anil pulled through, eventually prevailing 6-0, 2-6, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-4. That was tight. Too tight, but Gaskell is the kind of player who, despite what is now an 11-1 count in the head-to-head, does have the game to beat him on the right day. Major bullet dodged. The American blasted 23 aces and Mehul only got 6 -- he was still the better player but not by much. Need to tune up that serve, that's for sure.

Girsh faced another American ... no, not Hogue, it was the continually impressing Radek Smitala. A tough four-set win later, he joined Mehul in the semis. But they were on opposite sides of the bracket. The junior player met Iglar, and when the dust cleared he'd acquitted himself credibly but still looks for his first set against the legend, losing all three frames 6-4. His countryman went up against the other Czech, Cestmir Marcek. You know, the guy who I've been saying for a year is washed up and on the decline? Yeah, that guy. In his first Slam semifinal. So what do I know? Well, I know enough that he didn't have much chance against Mehul. A let-down in the third set didn't stop that.

So guess what. It's a Slam final, which means Mehul vs. Iglar. Unless it's on clay. Third year in a row for this matchup at the Australian. This time it has a different flavor. Iglar is a tad overplayed and starting to feel the fatigue, whereas in a reversal of how last year ended up, Mehul is now fresh again, finally having caught up in rest. Did this mean he had a chance to pull the upset? Yes, but after splitting a pair of sets, the next two went to tiebreaks. Competitive ones. Both taken by the champion. 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(5) is the final. Well played, but he takes his 10th Slam crown and Mehul's mantra of 'make it to Iglar' is once again his result.

Girish Girsh could not have asked for a better start to the year, he's 11-1 with Iglar his only defeat and moves up to 9th now, into the Top 10 just ahead of Herrera as Federer is knocked off the first page. It's still a ways to Mockler who holds the final WTF spot and is the gatekeeper to Top-8 seeding, but the year's just started. There's plenty of time.


In other news, Prakash Mooljee rammed his way to another amateur title, though he lost in the doubles quarterfinals. He'll need to play two more, but there's no indication anyone else at this level can challenge him right now. Should be a smooth transition to futures later on in the year.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group Phase, Second Round
Group 1, Mexico vs. Sri Lanka, Hardcourt

Monday: A. Mehul d. J. Gabriel, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. G. Craighead, 6-2, 6-1, 6-4
Wednesday: J. Gabriel/L. Miquel d. G. Girsh/A. Mehul, 6-4, 6-0, 6-1
Thursday: A. Mehul d. G. Craighead, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Friday: G. Girsh d. J. Gabriel, 6-2, 6-4, 6-2

Sri Lanka defeats Mexico, 4-1!!

Mexico has a strong doubles team, presently they are the 7th-ranked duo in the world. But aside from that, this was a pretty easy win. It also clinched first place in the group and a spot in the knockout rounds, since Sri Lanka now has two wins. Mexico and Italy both have one each, but we've beaten both of them. So no matter what happens in what should be another easy victory against Denmark, we're through.

We've moved up to 10th now. Starting to get to some heady territory. A little behind Mexico still. We're actually not all that far behind third place, it's pretty bunched up after the Czechs and Americans at the top. Some other dominoes will fall as the year rolls on.

Coming Up ...

And now we're back up to current events. The break leading up to the IW/Miami Masters is upon us. Girsh and Mehul will both be playing a 500-level event in the interim but it will still be a month of mostly down time.

[Brian Swartz]

February/March

As things ended up, Mehul took the whole four weeks off. Playing another event would have ended with him running the risk of being pretty tired by the end of Miami. For Girish Girsh, this was not as big an issue as he was expected to lose a round or so earlier. He headed off in early March to Memphis(500, Indoor). Seeded second behind Mockler, he was the runaway favorite here. After a bit more resistance than expected against Oncken in the semis, it was indeed Perry Mockler, last year's runner-up here, who met him in the finals. An easy win was expected, but that isn't what he got; just barely did he sneak through for his second title of the young season, 6-7(3), 7-6(3), 7-6(5). It doesn't get much closer than that! Not the most impressive display by Girsh, but it was narrowly enough to get the job done.

His goal now is to break past Mockler and into the Top 8 by the time the clay season rolls around. That's less than 200 points in the rankings away, and doable with strong efforts in the upcoming Masters events.

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells Masters

Girish Girsh had a chance to show young Russian phenom Afasny Bereznity the door in the third round, and did so in rather routine fashion. That meant a matchup with Marcek, the 5-seed, and a good chance for another strong result. He looked good for the win after taking the first set by breaking in the final game, but fell apart after getting behind in the second. In the third set both players had a lot of chances, more than enough for either to take the match by the throat but neither did. Both would rue their missed opportunities, and it was one of those days that would have no real winner, merely a loser and a survivor. Eventually Girsh did get it done in a decisive breaker, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(3). He was the better player on the day, but only narrowly. Survive and advance as they say though.

Gaskell was expected to be waiting in the quarters, but he was upset by Thiago Herrera. Girsh saves all three break chances he faced in a quite one-sided straight-sets win, and all of a sudden he was in the semis ... against Iglar again. Gave him a fine first set, but after losing the tiebreak, the closest he's come against the legend, it all fell apart in the second. Still another fine run, and he moves past Mockler into a tie for 7th with the plummeting Perry Hogue.

On the other side of the draw, Anil Mehul ensured that rise with a much-tougher-than-expected three-set win over Mockler to reach the semifinals. Once there, he was stunned 7-6(8), 2-6, 6-4 by Bjorn Benda. This wasn't just because Benda is now an inferior player at this point and on hardcourt Mehul should basically own him -- in the underlying numbers he controlled the match. 92-81 in points won, 37% to 26% in total return points ... it was one-sided enough that one would expect a straight-sets win. And yet he lost, now his third out of four and second straight on hardcourt to the supposedly(and actually) declining German. He still edges the head-to-head though, 11-10. Another factor here is that Benda played a lot more coming in, Mehul is not quite up to his best tennis yet -- but if he played a warmup he would indeed risk fatigue, and there's no way Benda will be at his best for Miami now. So it's a situation with no perfect solution really.

Shockingly, Benda went on to upset Iglar, the first hardcourt loss in over a year for the #1, and take his 11th Masters Shield!! He came back from a set down to take a decisive tiebreak, 10-8 in the third set. A better final one could not ask for. It seems he's on a definite resurgence here, now definitely in striking distance to take the #2 spot back from Mehul which seemed totally safe just weeks ago. The next few months just got a lot more complicated ...


Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee bashed through his third amateur tournament, once again without meaningful resistance. He needs only one more to 'graduate' to futures play.

[Brian Swartz]

Miami Masters

Girish Girsh had the advantage of being a top-8 seed for the first time. He used it well, though a fourth-round encounter with Condon was a bit testier than expected he came through in straights for another quarterfinal. This time he had a chance to back up his earlier win at the Australian Open against Bjorn Benda. He put forth a thoroughly disappointing showing, esp. on serve, in losing 6-2, 7-6(4), dropping nearly half of his service points. Losing to Benda on hardcourt occasionally is no shame, but he expected to play better esp. with the older German more fatigued coming in.

Anil Mehul cruised through to the quarters himself ... and then was shocked by Cestmir Marcek, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. It's Mehul's worst result in a big hardcourt tournament in about two years, and he had beaten the Czech no. 2 in seven straight encounters going back almost three seasons. There are a couple of extenuating circumstances: Marcek has been on a hot streak lately(he would go on to knock off Benda and reach his second Masters final), and like the loss to Benda in Indian Wells, Mehul played more than well enough to win here. He held a 33-29% edge in return points, forcing Marcek to serve 21 more points in his games ... but dropped four of six break points and that was that.

Mehul's reputation as the undisputed #2 is reeling ... and as we shall see, so is his position in the rankings. The thing about it is, his last two losses here are both matches he should have won. In the past he's certainly had a charmed existence from time to time -- perhaps it's a moment to pay the piper here? The obvious narrative is that he's losing his grip but I still think his game is actually slightly better than last year, though the results right now are not quite following and confidence going forward is a serious issue. I think some of his best play is still yet to come, but he'll need to be tough-minded about things over the next few months to make that happen. He's taken a hit this last month, no doubt about it.

Iglar won to claim a third straight Miami title, surprising nobody of course.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 26) -- 15,280

The surprisingly loss to Benda at Indian Wells is his only blemish so far this year.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 27) -- 10,330

Mehul retains the #2 spot only narrowly ahead of the stunningly charging German veteran who was said to be finished as a challenger. It is very possible, in fact even probable, that he will lose the spot now over the spring.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 28) -- 10,220

Benda sits poised to snatch the #2 spot back, and his upset win at Indian Wells moved him into a tie for 9th all-time with 11 Masters Shields, likely a couple more to come in the clay season. Clearly he is not close to done yet.

4. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 29) -- 5,570

A surprising resurgence by Marcek has the Czechs the clear favorites for the WTC at this point, and at 29 he's reached a new career apex. If he continues his current level of play, it will be tough to stop them.

5. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 26) -- 5,470

Gaskell now has a surprising challenger in Marcek for the title of 'best of the rest'. It will be interesting to see how he handles this new, unexpected reality.

6. David Alvarez(ESP, 30) -- 4,885

Steadily if slowly slipping, Alvarez will need to make considerable noise in the clay season if he wants to retain his current status.

7. Girish Girsh(SRI, 23) -- 4,610

Still a little inconsistent, Girsh is nonetheless on the rise with a fine first quarter to the year overall. Alvarez is next on his plate, but after that it will get more difficult to progress ...

8. Perry Hogue(USA, 29) -- 4,340

Right now it looks like Hogue is in the last gasps of his career, and he could be out of the Top 10 by year's end.

9. Perry Mockler(USA, 27) -- 4,200

Mockler looks ready to assume Hogue's place on the US WTC roster. He's had some very close losses to top players, but hasn't been quite good enough to break through and I'm not sure he can play any better than he has been.

10. Thiago Herrera(PER, 25) -- 3,925

Last year he looked like the #2 clay player in the world. Can he repeat that performance?

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles(unchanged), 246th to 259th doubles. The Miami and Indian Wells losses made it a disappointing start to the year by Mehul's admittedly lofty standards that leave little margin for error. The clay season is the only part of the year where's there's really room at all for improvement in the rankings, and for that to happen things will need to fall into line fairly neatly as he made at least the quarters in all three of the big events last year.


Girish Girsh -- 11th to 7th singles, 247th to 260th singles. This year was supposed to be about getting into the World Tour Finals, but that's all but assured now. The new goal at this point is to surpass Marcek and Gaskell, getting to the 'best of the rest' #4 spot. If the results so far are any indication, he has a good chance of getting there. Two titles already, along with a pair of SF and one QF in the big events. Two losses to Iglar and one to Benda. Overall, an outstanding start to the year, and more opportunities ahead.


Prakash Mooljee -- 1828th to 1071st singles, 2873rd to 2098th doubles. One more amateur awaits in a few weeks, but there have been no threats on that level and that should be the end of it. The more hazardous climb up the futures ladder will commence by the time summer arrives.


Manager Ranking -- 4th(unchanged), 25.6k to 26.1k points. The rate of gain has definitely slowed, another case of a very narrow margin. If Girsh continues to excel though, that will change.


Coming Up ...

The final group round of the WTC is underway. It's a foregone conclusion at this point in terms of Sri Lanka, but we will get to see how the knockout round draw works out -- and who makes it through from the other groups. It appears that it will be a reversal of last year, with Girsh skipping Monte Carlo while Mehul participates due to the unexpectedly early defeats the last few weeks. It's an unusually important clay season for both players.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Group Phase Third Round
Group 1, Sri Lanka vs. Denmark, Hardcourt

Monday: A. Mehul d. C. Daamsgard, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. J. Petersen, 6-1, 7-6(3), 6-7(5), 6-4
Wednesday: A. Mehul/G. Girsh d. E. Bengtsson/S. Binzer, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1
Thursday: A. Mehul d. J. Petersen, 6-3, 6-3, 6-1
Friday: G. Girsh d. C. Daamsgard, 6-1, 6-3, 6-0

Sri Lanka defeats Denmark, 5-0!!

Girsh's first match, against Petersen(World no. 40) was more than a bit shaky. He eventually made it through and was solid in his second match, and there was no other drama as Sri Lanka clinched first place in the group. It was enough to edge them just ahead of Mexico into 9th overall in the latest rankings.

The quarterfinal matchups are set, and -- well, sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. Austria has Hammerstein back and is very dangerous again, they'll meet Peru and will have the upper hand most likely. The Czech Republic should handle Italy, ditto for the US with France ... and Sri Lanka gets defending champion Germany who finished second in their own group(to Austria) after taking the title last year. Even worse, it's on clay. Again. No, this is not a joke, though I wish it was. It is literally the worst possible matchup.

The German team is the same and I don't expect that to change. There is a chance that the gradual aging process, which is on Sri Lanka's side, will move the needle enough to give us a better chance at an upset than we had in last year's final. After all, this tie won't be contested for about five months. But it's a disheartening result. Any other second-place team from the other groups, or Germany or any other surface, and it would be a near-certain win. There needs to be an investigation into the defending champions' having now a fourth straight knockout tie on their favored surface. Seriously.

At any rate, a week off and Monte Carlo resumes the regular schedule and kicks off the clay season. No time to dwell on this disgusting, unfair, unpleasantness.

[Brian Swartz]

Monte Carlo

Anil Mehul was the only one of the top three players here, as usual. The third round was his first potential test, John Condon. Condon is about at his peak, a true clay specialist and while he's not developed his baseline game much, the focus on his serve has made it the best in the world. A tough combination, but Mehul went in having taken all six career meetings, including two years ago in the quarterfinals here, where he lost a tiebreak, then dominated the rest of the match. After winning the first set, he lost a close second and a tense third went to a tiebreak. Annoyed that it had come down to this, Mehul led 3-0 and 5-3 ... and lost the last four points to blow the match, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(5) the scoreline. Condon earned it too, just slightly the better player on the whole, his first win now in seven meetings. Condon proved his mettle by sneaking past Herrera and reaching the final where he lost to Marcek; the Czech claimed his second Masters, continuing what is looking like it might be a career year.

Three is a trend they say ... three disappointing tournament results in a row now. There is still time to save it, but the year is turning south quickly for Mehul.

Two weeks before the Madrid/Rome back-to-back Masters starts up.

[Brian Swartz]

May

There's actually still a week left before Madrid, but it's a training week for everyone so there won't be anything new there. Prakash Mooljee just finished his fourth and final amateur singles title, though he did face his lone challenge in the stretch. Croatian Blajota Covanovic, a contemporary of his, pushed him to the toughest two sets he's faced at the amateur level before succumbing 7-5, 7-5. They'll probably meet again down the road.

Mooljee is now well into the Top 1000 at 908th in the singles rankings, and after another month off he'll take his first ventures into futures play as he steps up to the next rung in the professional ladder.

[Brian Swartz]

Madrid Masters

After both of Sri Lanka's top players got through a bye and their first matches easily, Girish Girsh had a spot of trouble in dropping a set to French qualifier Hugo Dealavallade before coming through. His reward was a topsy-turvy quaterfinal in which he took a set from Iglar for the first time but still lost badly, 6-3, 4-6, 6-1. But still, a quarterfinal on clay -- not bad, and he moves up to 6th ahead of the fading Alvarez.

Anil Mehul had a smoother journey than in Monte Carlo, and was surprised to see Perry Mockler in his quarterfinal matchup. Even more surprising, despite returning quite well on the day, he nearly lost before prevailing 6-3, 3-6, 6-4. Cestmir Marcek was up next, looking strong this year and winner of both of their previous clay encounters ... though both were at least three years ago. This one went the distance and it was Mehul's serve that bailed him up, quite uncharacteristically. He hit 11 aces, saved all but one of a dozen break points, and got through to the final 6-3, 5-7, 6-2.

Then it was time to face the music against Benda, who would certainly assert himself here. The success was in getting here. Mehul played well enough to keep it close, still outplayed but kept himself in it ... and after dropping the first set managed a most improbable upset, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(5), claiming his first Masters Shield in over a year, breaking the German's four-year stranglehold on the Madrid tournament, and his first win in just the third clay meeting between the two. It also firmly established him as the world #2 again, a spot he nearly lost a few months ago. Not quite a deserved win but he did enough to give himself a chance, and then seized the opportunity. A stunning upset to be sure.


Rome Masters

Mehul was made to work in his first match by Dealavallade, who validated his good performance the previous week with a good fight before departing 7-5, 6-4. In the third round, Italian 13th-seed Mugur Kinczllers delighted the hometown partisans with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 victory over Girsh, his first in three meeting on the senior tour. Kinczllers, a dominant junior player, had dismantled him four straight times during their younger days. At this point he's probably the top generational rival with Bahana having gone the way of all flesh. He's at home, and a player on the rise, but it's still a somewhat disappointing loss.

The crowd was not enough to get him past Sri Lanka's alpha representative though. In the quarters Mehul sent him packing with the loss of just five games. Marcek again in the semis, and this one wasn't close; 2 & 2 was all the Czech no. 2 could muster. Very impressive back-to-back performances, which led up to Benda's Revenge.

The German had outlasted Iglar for the second straight time in the other semi, and was defending three straight titles here. He came out firing on all cylinders, but partly due to fatigue and partly due to perhaps a hangover from the previous week, and partly due perhaps to karma, Mehul rallied again for an inconceivable 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 win. This was even slightly more one-sided than his loss to Benda back in Indian Wells. 105-92 in total points, Benda won nearly half of his return points overall, but he had seven double faults, many of them at bad times.

I'm not sure I believe what has just happened. Anil Mehul has just won both of the mandatory clay Masters in back to back weeks over the presumptive favorite, doubling his Masters total to four Shields, reversing the narrative on his season from disappointing to even better than last year at this point, reaching a new ranking high at over 12k points, and -- incomprehensibly -- anointing himself as the clay player of the 2053 season to date. In the third set at Rome, he went down an early break but didn't allow Benda to consolidate, fought off three match points at 4-5, then broke again to take the title. He had every opportunity to lose, and his opponent every opportunity to win -- yet somehow it didn't happen.

Looking Ahead

This leaves things wide-open heading into the French Open. Who's the favorite? Bjorn Benda is still clearly the best claycourter in the world on paper, but he's now lost three straight big events on the surface, all in the final. Antonin Iglar is the defending champion. And Anil Mehul must be taken seriously as a contender after the last couple of weeks. Meanwhile last year's darling, Thiago Herrera, has bowed out quickly the last couple times out and dropped out of the Top 10.

Don't look now, but the gap between Iglar and Mehul is now just over 3000 points. That's still a lot, but if Iglar doesn't defend at the French and Mehul does at Wimbledon(two enormous ifs, but it's a scenario that's quite possible), the legend's spot at the top may become far less comfortable than presumed, and far less comfortable than it's been in years.

In a final leadup event, Girsh headed off to Nice. The French city, not the English adjective of the same name. A 250 event, and he lost in the semis to German Harald Oncken, who he'd beaten twice previously on clay. It was a close three-setter, and disappointing -- but it did set him up perfectly in terms of focus and number of matches needed. Rising French star Davide Poilblan took his first title, proceeding to bagel Oncken in the first set.

Fatigue is one thing, but the question right now is whether Girsh will bring his game to Roland Garros. And in the second week, there will another event of minor interest, as Prakash Mooljee enters his first futures event nearby ...

[Brian Swartz]

2043 French Open

Girish Girsh had surprisingly testy first-rounder, which can happen on clay, this one against Portuguese veteran Xavier Caminha. He had to survive a tiebreak before moving on 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-3. Mehul had no such issues, and both players advanced through the next couple of rounds very easily and routinely.

Girsh met up with 9th-seeded Hogue, a phrase which by itself shows how far the American has fallen. The match did as well, with a final-set bagel ending his dismissal in straight sets. There were three epic five-setters in the round, and one of them involved Mehul. After leading by a set twice, he was shocked by Peru's Marcelo Herrera in the upset of the tournament, 3-6, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, 6-2. It was, as the score indicates, an up-and-down match, and a stunning one as the 15th-seeded Herrera had shown no signs previously. For the first time, Girsh advanced further than Mehul. It was also the first time Anil had failed to reach the quarterfinal stage of a Slam in exactly two years; last year he made the semis here.
It was a close match, but the proper result; he just got out-grinded. Rather shocking really considering how well he'd played coming in and the first three rounds.

Girsh went on to another meeting with Iglar, who unceremoniously dumped him aside 6-4, 6-1, 6-1, clearly reaching his best claycourt tennis at the right stage and winning over half of his return points. So that was that, but still a round further than Girsh had made it last year.

Benda went on to beat Iglar in straight sets and reached the final without losing one. On the other side, Herrera continued through, straight-setting Gaskell and nearly taking out Marcek who reached his first final, 7-5 in the fifth over the upstart Peruvian. It was a career-making event for both players. And there would be more surprises in the final. Bjorn Benda's championship mettle was on display and he needed every bit of it, rallying from a two-set deficit to take a pair of tough tiebreaks and pull out the title, 6-7(5), 2-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(6), 6-2. A really tough moment for Marcek, one I can identify with as Mehul suffered a similar comeback last year here against the German. Benda was objectively probably outplayed slightly, but really turned it around after the second set and would not be denied.


In other News ...

While all of that was playing out, Prakash Mooljee was surprisingly seeded 8th in his first futures event(Tier-3), but had a tough 7-5, 6-4 match that he survived in the first round. From there it was a relative cruise, knocking off the third and second seeds en route to a final against unseeded Hungarian Laszlo Fazekas. Fazekas is one of those players who is all rally and no serve, which lended itself to a very unusual, unbalanced match. Mooljee had 22 aces, Fazekas not a one and 18 double faults ... yet he almost pulled it off, since he had the upper hand by far whenever the serve didn't decide the point. Mooljee prevailed though, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(4), taking his first futures title at the first time of asking. It's just days shy of his 19th birthday, a few months ahead of Girsh and several ahead of Mehul in getting to that point. He's up now to 709th, just about exactly a 200-spot rise, and more will definitely be coming. He may in fact move up a tier but will have several weeks to consider that. So far it's nothing but smooth progress since turning pro.

Coming Up ...

Everybody is off until at least Wimbledon, starting in three weeks.

[Brian Swartz]

Wimbledon 2043

For the first time, Anil Mehul was in the position of defending a Slam title, a unique position which gives him everything to lose and nothing to gain from a ranking point of view, and one of considerably more pressure. Certainly he's got the game to have a chance at repeating.

Both of our heroes eased into the tournament and then had their first competitive matches in the third round, with Mehul stopping Mick Elder and Girsh coming through against Agustin Herrera, both in straight sets. The next round was actually easier, with Girsh getting some more payback against former nemesis Milan Farkas, who he crushed including an opening-set bagel.

So both made it through to the quarterfinals without the loss of a set or any real challenge so far. A fantastic start. Girish Girsh met Benda who he figured to have a pretty good chance against, and it was one of those matches that absolutely didn't go according to script. It was the younger player, known as a grinder, who was the better server(20-7 in ace count) but he still was defeated in three straight 6-4 sets. Unusual, and surprising for him to be beaten in rally play, but Benda played the part of the wily veteran to perfection.

It was a disappointing loss but would later becomes less of one. It soon became clear that the German world no. 3 was really playing some of his best tennis, which there had of course been evidence again last month when he reclaimed his RG crown. As for Anil Mehul, his quarterfinal came against Pierce Gaskell, their 13th meeting though just the first on grass. This went more the expected route: the American had the better of it on serve but didn't do well in the rallies, and failed all three break chances. A close match, but still straight-sets for Mehul after a nervy tiebreak to open things.

Cestmir Marcek was the obstacle to making the final, and it should have been pretty one-sided but the Czech no. 2 has been on fire this year and this match was no exception. Straight sets again for our defending champion but at 7-6(5), 7-6, 6-4, it was no cakewalk. The other semi was where the real surprise was, Benda upsetting Iglar in three straight breakers. This is really a pretty shocking result, but continues a pattern of the world no.1 not quite living up to his lofty results last year.

This led to a final that had a quite a bit on the line. Aside from what would Benda's 7th or Mehul's 2nd overall Slam trophy, the winner would hold the #2 spot in the rankings and have the inside track on the year-end runner-up position. Both players served very well, trading close sets and then going to tight, tense tiebreaks in the next two. Break points were dead-even as well, with both converting just 2 of 10 in a serve-dominated match very appropriate to the grasscourt. Benda held a slim 26-22 edge in aces, but despite this Mehul was able to put somewhat more consistent pressure on him than he received, and pulled through narrowly, 7-5, 5-7, 7-6(6), 7-6(7)!

Anil Mehul successfully defends his Wimbledon title, and he will no longer be known as a possible 'one-slam wonder'. His place in history, a relatively minor place but a notable one nonetheless, is secured as a player worth remembering. The list of those who have won back-to-back titles at the world's oldest and most prestigious championships is a fairly short one, and his name has now been added.