Predicting Movies

[TazFTW]

What a crappy weekend.

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Flightplan	BV	$15,038,000	-38.9%	3,424	-	$4,391	$46,145,000	-	2
2	N	Serenity	Uni.	$10,141,000	-	2,188	-	$4,634	$10,141,000	$39	1
3	2	Tim Burton's Corpse Bride	WB	$9,755,000	-49.0%	3,204	-	$3,044	$32,910,000	-	3
4	18	A History of Violence	NL	$8,200,000	+1,489.2%	1,340	+1,326	$6,119	$8,969,000	-	2
5	N	Into the Blue	Sony	$7,000,000	-	2,789	-	$2,509	$7,000,000	-	1

[Pyser]

how bout that. i guess you can stop jessica alba.

and the flight attendant boycott of flighplan seems to be going well, too...

[Pyser]

RELEASE SCHEDULE
Oct. 7 Theaters
The Gospel 900
In Her Shoes 2,800+
Two for the Money 2,300+
Waiting 1,500+
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit 3,000

[TazFTW]

Newer theatre count.

1	122	Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit	DreamWorks	3,645	0	1
2	2	Flightplan	Buena Vista	3,323	-101	3
3	3	Tim Burton's Corpse Bride	Warner Bros.	3,004	-200	4
4	20	In Her Shoes	Fox	2,808	+2,308	1
5	5	Into the Blue	Sony	2,789	0	2
6	-	Two for the Money	Universal	2,388	-	1
7	1	Just Like Heaven	DreamWorks	2,307	-1,236	4
8	6	Serenity	Universal	2,189	+1	2

I don't know. Even with the excellent reviews and the large screen count, I just don't see a lot of people seeing Wallace and Gromit.
However, I have to pick Wallace and Gromit because Flightplan is in its 3rd week and there's nothing else to see. I'll go with Wallace and Gromit making $22 million.

[Pyser]

oops, forgot to post my prediction.

i reluctantly completely afgree. W&G, 18m.

[Pyser]

WEEKEND ACTUALS
1. Wallace & Gromit $16,025,987
2. Flightplan $10,764,440



opening this week:
Domino 2,000
Elizabethtown 2,500
The Fog 2,700+


my gut says the fog, even though i personally will probably see the first 2 listed, and have no interest in the third. as great as cameron crowe is, i still dont think he can open a movie...plus, its almost halloween time...which helps any horror movie, as im sure we'll see in the next week or 2.

[TazFTW]

Domino and Elizabethtown are getting shelled at RottenTomatoes.

The Fog doesn't have any reviews listed, which usually means that it was not shown for reviewers. Not a good sign. However, I had heard some good buzz about it on the 'net. Add in the Halloween factor and I'll go with The Fog winning at $20 million.

[Pyser]

people have to see something, i suppose, so ill go bigger. fog at 23m.

[Pyser]

yowza. turns out people dont need to see anything!

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. The Fog $12,200,000
2. Wallace & Gromit $11,700,000
3. Elizabethtown $11,000,000

[Pyser]

opening this week:

Doom 3,044
Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story 2,007
North Country 2,555
Stay 1,684

just based on theater count, ill go doom. 17m.

[TazFTW]

Doom with $22 million.

[Pyser]

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Doom $15,382,000
2. Dreamer $9,300,000

[TazFTW]

Zorro has a big theatre count and it is PG. Saw II has a pretty good theatre count and it has the weekend before Halloween helping it.

I'll go with Zorro with $25 million.

[Pyser]

RELEASE SCHEDULE
Oct. 28 Theaters
The Legend of Zorro 3,520
Prime 1,831
Saw II 2,949
The Weather Man 1,510


zorro looks very family oriented..the exact opposite of saw 2. but i dont think this will be a big movie weekend for either film. ill take saw in the upset, at only 17m.

[TazFTW]

Damnnnnnnnm, I seem to have underestimated the Halloween effect.

Rank*	Title (Click to view chart)	Friday 10/28 (Estimates)	Saturday 10/29	Sunday 10/30	Monday 10/31
1	SAW II 2,949	$12,050,000 -- / $4,086 $12,050,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	THE LEGEND OF ZORRO 3,520	$5,400,000 -- / $1,534 $5,400,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A

[Pyser]

right horse, wrong total

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Saw II $30,500,000
2. The Legend of Zorro $16,500,000

[TazFTW]

Chicken Little should be able to win the weekend. I would say $29 million.

[Pyser]

RELEASE SCHEDULE
Nov. 4 Theaters
Chicken Little 3654
Jarhead 2410


chicken litte, 32m.

jarhead, with a great advertising, should pull 23m or so, id guess.

[TazFTW]

This could get interesting.

Rank*	Title (Click to view chart)	Friday 11/4 (Estimates)	Saturday 11/5	Sunday 11/6	Monday 11/7
1	CHICKEN LITTLE 3,654	$10,730,000 -- / $2,937 $10,730,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	JARHEAD 2,411	$10,470,000 -- / $4,343 $10,470,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A

[Pyser]

well, it didnt get interesting...probably because most kids dont see movies on friday nights. chicken little was definitely for the day crowd.

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Chicken Little $40,086,000
2. Jarhead $28,751,000
3. Saw II $17,200,000

[Pyser]

RELEASE SCHEDULE
Nov. 9 Theaters
Get Rich or Die Tryin' 1,652
Nov. 11 Theaters
Derailed 2,441
Zathura 3,223
Pride and Prejudice 215


Tough to call. Get Rich Or Die Tryin has the 2 day lead, but i dont think it will be 8-mile big, and the screen count isnt high.

which allows zathura to step up....but that seems to be in pretty direct competition with chicken little, which should still get 17-20mil pretty easily.

then add in the aniston movie, which is totally anti-kids, and its a weird weekend.

i think its zathura or chicken little...and while im tempted to go zathura, ill chicken little in a repeat for no real reason, at 22m.

[TazFTW]

Hmm, tough choice. Chicken Little will see a 2nd week fall but will Zathura pull in enough families to surpass it. I'll go with Zathura making $25 million.

[Pyser]

um. where was the drop-off. WOW.

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Chicken Little $32,026,000
2. Zathura $14,000,000
3. Derailed $12,800,000
4. Get Rich or Die Tryin' $12,500,000
5. Jarhead $12,264,000

[TazFTW]

Harry Potter will win with $92 million.

[JeffNights]

The Potterheads come in BIG, 139 million.

[Pyser]

ill go with 101m.

[Buccaneer]

$36m on Friday (and midnight showings) alone. Looks like it might go huge.

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by Pyser

ill go with 101m.

Nice guess.

[Pyser]

RELEASE SCHEDULE**
Nov. 23

The Ice Harvest 1,400
In the Mix 1,400+
Just Friends 2,000+
Rent 2,100+
Yours, Mine and Ours 3,000
Pride and Prejudice 1,100



i guess studios are banking on people seeing more than 1 movie over thanksgiving break. and what a weird mix.

i mean, who the hell decided to hold "just friends" for an end of year run? seems like a january movie, or august, to me. it's gonna die a fiery death post-potter.

speaking of which....yours, mine and ours? are they banking on young kids seeing this? another odd release time....but i guess they are following the "cheaper by the dozen" release last year. just dont know who'll see it (but then, i dont know who saw cheaper by the dozen, and thats got a sequel out this year, so what do i know).

rent may make some money, though...and has an entirely different demographic than potter.

but i will not go against potter. no way. my 4 day weekend guess: 52m.

just for fun, ill predict 2nd place...and say rent. 31m.

[TazFTW]

Potter with $45 million.

[Pyser]

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter / Goblet of Fire $54,905,000
2. Walk the Line $19,700,000
3. Yours, Mine and Ours $17,475,000
4. Chicken Little $12,421,000
5. Rent $10,700,000

add another 12 or so to potter for the 4 day total.

so i was way under for potter, and WAY over on rent. goodness. i should stick to just the top spot...thats tough enough.

[TazFTW]

Potter wins by default. The only film going wide is Aeon Flux and I don't see it having a big box office. I'll go with Harry Potter for $30 million.

[Pyser]

well, i fogot to predict. little embarassing. anyway, good guess, taz. bit high though.

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter / Goblet of Fire $20,450,000
2. Aeon Flux $13,100,000
3. Walk the Line $10,000,000



this week, ill go narnia at 47m.

[SFL Cat]

1. Narnia
2. Harry Potter

[TazFTW]

Narnia wins with $40 million.

[sterlingice]

Wow, I wanted to guess $55M but thought it too high, but I guess not:

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - "Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe" scored a much-needed box office hit for Walt Disney Co, taking in $67 million for the second-biggest debut ever in a weekend in December.

1	-	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe	Buena Vista Pictures Distribution	$67,064,000	$67,064,000	1	3616
2	19	Syriana	Warner Bros. Pictures Distribution	$12,030,000	$13,529,000	3	1752
3	1	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	Warner Bros. Pictures International, Warner Bros. Pictures Distribution	$10,315,000	$244,119,000	4	3728

SI

[Pyser]

kong:
1 - wed pred
2 - 3 day weekend prediction
3 - 5 day prediction
4 - overall prediction (domestic)


ill go first:
1 - $28m
2 - $87m
3 - $135m
4 - $490m

[Karlifornia]

$490? holy shit would that be some sort of all-time record?

[Karlifornia]

1-$23m
2-$77m
3-$100m
4-$288m

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by RadioFriendlyUnitShifter

$490? holy shit would that be some sort of all-time record?

Titanic made $600 million.

[TazFTW]

1. $30 million
2. $80 million
3. $123 million
4. $420 million

[Karlifornia]

Hmm...ok..I'm thinking I'll adjust my original estimates. I'm trying to compare this to the most recent blockbuster, Harry Potter. I suppose Kong could do around $100 mil this weekend. I'll decide tomorrow morning.

[TazFTW]

Kong made $9.755 million on Wednesday. Eject! Eject!

[Pyser]

so kong only made 50.1 on the 3 day weekend. oops!

on to christmas weekend:

RELEASE SCHEDULE
Dec. 21 Theaters
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 3,100
Fun with Dick and Jane 3,056
Dec. 23 Theaters
The Ringer 1,829
Munich 532
Memoirs of a Geisha 1,547
Brokeback Mountain 217
Dec. 25 Theaters
Rumor Has It 2,815
Wolf Creek 1,749
Casanova 37
The Producers 975


im sticking with kong. 40m.

[Pyser]

wow. good showing from narnia. guess the jesus plotline helped.

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. King Kong $31,433,000
2. The Chronicles of Narnia $30,102,000
3. Fun with Dick and Jane $23,500,000
4. Cheaper by the Dozen 2 $14,775,000
5. The Family Stone $10,850,000

[Pyser]

i dont think anything new opened this week.

i really want to stick with kong, but narnia worries me.

all the same, im routing for kong, so may as well go down swinging.

kong - 23m.

[Pyser]

narnia beat kong this week. nice comeback. 33-31 i think. interesting.