sox soon to sign Santana?

[Galaril]

This is being reported that the Sox and Twins are ready to announce a deal for Santana in exchange for Lester, Masterson, Crisp. If this goes through just give next years trophy to the Sox now.

[Sublime 2]

Don't have to give up Bucholz or Ellsbury....Wow!

[albionmoonlight]

If this is true, I am really suprised that the Yankees did not overpay for him. Strange to see the Yankees thinking long term rather than just picking up every big name guy who comes up in trade talks.

[molson]

It's bizarre to me how light the offers have been.

"Prospects" have really increased in trade value over the last 10 years. The Yankees and Red Sox used to think nothing of throwing in tons of prospects for middle relievers.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

Don't have to give up Bucholz or Ellsbury....Wow!

Yeah sounds like they may have to give Hansen instead of Mastersen no prob.

[CleBrownsfan]

I still think the Yankees are going to give the Twins "an offer they can't refuse"... we'll see

[molson]

More specifically, Boston.com reports that the Red Sox have exchanged "medical information" on Santana and Lester.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by CleBrownsfan

I still think the Yankees are going to give the Twins "an offer they can't refuse"... we'll see

It is being reported the Yankees negoitiations ave broken off over their reluctnace to give up Hughes AND Kenneddy. They are now looking at Dan Harren. Good luck with that

[Anthony]

if the Yankees go back and send in another offer after their self-imposed trade deadline has passed, Hank Steinbrenner will have thrown away all credibility. he's already on shaky ground with me after saying "if Arod opts out - we're not going to make an offer". yeah right. you can only make so many hollow promises.

[highfiveoh]

That proposal in the first post is missing Lowrie.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by Galaril

It is being reported the Yankees negoitiations ave broken off over their reluctnace to give up Hughes AND Kenneddy. They are now looking at Dan Harren. Good luck with that

I don't understand why the Twins are demanding both Hughes and Kennedy from the Yankees when they're willing to accept so little from the Red Sox. This deal is practically giving Santana away. I hope this report is wrong.

[SirFozzie]

From MLBTradeRumors.com with their link

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 8:34am: LENIII is hearing the four players are Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, and Masterson - same as Gordon Edes said.

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=285

[highfiveoh]

I still think there is a possibility that the Sox will have to part with both Lester and Ellsbury.

[DaddyTorgo]

that's about the only deal i'd be happy with. if they can get santana and keep ellsbury+bucholz i'd be OKAY with it. still not thrilled, as i stated in the offseason thread i'd rather see them think proactively and down the road towards replacing manny+mike lowell with the cash instead of locking up a 29 y/o starting pitcher for 6 years at huge cash (irregardless of whether he's the best in the game or not, what's the win-shares provided by him versus the win shares provided by manny+lowell say...in his best year versus their years last year)

[Izulde]

Damn it, specify what color!

I was thinking this was the White Sox for a minute and was giddy.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

that's about the only deal i'd be happy with. if they can get santana and keep ellsbury+bucholz i'd be OKAY with it. still not thrilled, as i stated in the offseason thread i'd rather see them think proactively and down the road towards replacing manny+mike lowell with the cash instead of locking up a 29 y/o starting pitcher for 6 years at huge cash (irregardless of whether he's the best in the game or not, what's the win-shares provided by him versus the win shares provided by manny+lowell say...in his best year versus their years last year)

Yeah, same here. I am ot worried about Lowell for the next three years and if they kept Chadd Spann out of the triple a or Jed Lowrie they will be all set a t infield. But the two areas I am concerned with is finding a replacement for Manny after 08? I am thinking Holiday out of Colorado in trade after 08 forexample and finding catching prospect to take over for Varitek in acouple of years. Statring pitching is set for awhile even without Santana-Beckett,Dice-K,Buckholtz, Lester and a solid number 2 guy. If they give up Ellsbury they fucking stupid.

[mckerney]

This had better not happen.

[molson]

I think Red Sox fans are over-thinking this thing.

What is Jacob Ellsbury's upside, really? When you have a chance at an elite pitcher you go after him.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by molson

I think Red Sox fans are over-thinking this thing.

What is Jacob Ellsbury's upside, really? When you have a chance at an elite pitcher you go after him.

they should erect statues of theo around fenway if he gets this done. even including ellsbury.

[molson]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

they should erect statues of theo around fenway if he gets this done. even including ellsbury.

Yup.

Theo has done an incredible job building up a farm system - that's something the Sox have never had in my lifetime. It's time to cash in.

[SirFozzie]

One of the two sports talk radio stations in Boston (the smaller one, 1510 The Zone), is reporting that a deal has been struck, and that the Sox have been given 72 hours to negotiate a contract extension with Santana.

I'm gonna put a huge grain of salt on this (it's not on the major Boston station, WEEI, yet, nor ESPN.com).. but it's interesting.

[Anthony]

there is no scenario in which Ellsbury should hold up a deal to get a pitcher, who, still under 30 years old, has won a Cy Young and is a perennial Cy Young candidate. right now Ellsbury (and i'll admit i haven't watched him play) is just a kid with a lot of hyped-up upside. Santana is Santana, who can be as dominant, if not more dominant, than Beckett. to have Santana, who's bad season by his standard was in large part due to poor run support, and Beckett in the same rotation is a guaranteed World Series championship. they'd basically be a younger version of Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling of the Dbacks championship winning rotation.

[molson]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

One of the two sports talk radio stations in Boston (the smaller one, 1510 The Zone), is reporting that a deal has been struck, and that the Sox have been given 72 hours to negotiate a contract extension with Santana.

I thought 1510 was just running national syndication shows now? Who's their "baseball insider" that would get such a scoop over say, Peter Gammons?

[SirFozzie]

they still have andelman, I think.. they still have one or two local shows

[EagleFan]

That should make for some very entertaining National Anthems in Fenway, maybe he'll do the 7th inning stretch too?

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

they still have andelman, I think.. they still have one or two local shows

I think andelmen has been long gone from there for a while. I think they have a local guy do mornings. Not sure of the afternoon. Maybe Felger. He has a show somewhere.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

they still have andelman, I think.. they still have one or two local shows

Is Andelman that senile old guy who used to be on WEEI but was completely unlistenable due to never being impartial about anything? (Not that anyone on WEEI ever was unbiased though). I guess I didn't even know 1510 existed, is it available in central mass, or the signal boston only? These days I just flip between WEEI and 890 (ESPN Radio), depending on who is on. Mornings and mid-day I usually listen to ESPN, but afternoons I flip to WEEI because at least the big show is entertaining

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

I think andelmen has been long gone from there for a while. I think they have a local guy do mornings. Not sure of the afternoon. Maybe Felger. He has a show somewhere.

Felger is on ESPN Radio 890 in the afternoons.. and is still as annoying as always.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=285

I am amused by all the Red Sox fans descending on this blog to extoll the virtues of Coco Crisp to apoplectic Twins fans.

[JPhillips]

Why do the Twins want to trade Santana now? Isn't he likely to have more value to whoever is in second in the AL East come July?

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Why do the Twins want to trade Santana now? Isn't he likely to have more value to whoever is in second in the AL East come July?

he has a no trade and said f-you to the twins trading him during the season.

at least I think that's the case

[JPhillips]

I'd then be tempted to ride it out and get the two draft picks. The prospects they'll get from the Red Sox have so little value IMO that I'd go the route of the Nats and take my chances with the draft picks.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

he has a no trade and said f-you to the twins trading him during the season.

at least I think that's the case

He denied ever saying that and was apparently "furious" about it. Just saying...

Honestly, if this is all Minnesota is getting, I'll go back to my original stance that they should be contracted. Let's ignore the fact that the owner is a billionaire and could pay him if he really wanted to...you don't trade your stud pitcher, who's 29 years old and will be signed to a long-term deal, to a powerhouse team in your own league for anything short of a king's ransom that will significantly even the playing field.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

he has a no trade and said f-you to the twins trading him during the season.

at least I think that's the case

exacttly. He doesn't want to throw 1 pitch without his new contract.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Logan

He denied ever saying that and was apparently "furious" about it. Just saying...

Honestly, if this is all Minnesota is getting, I'll go back to my original stance that they should be contracted. Let's ignore the fact that the owner is a billionaire and could pay him if he really wanted to...you don't trade your stud pitcher, who's 29 years old and will be signed to a long-term deal, to a powerhouse team in your own league for anything short of a king's ransom that will significantly even the playing field.

Except they have two options. 1 - Get a first round draft pick when Santana leaves next year, and he WILL leave, it's been made clear. Risk having even that compensation being taken away (there are folks who want to get rid of picks for leaving Free Agents, since the Yanks and BoSox have been playing that game for a while now). 2- Get what you can, while you can. Especially if you think there's good reason that your pitcher WON'T allow you to trade him during the year.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Except they have two options. 1 - Get a first round draft pick when Santana leaves next year, and he WILL leave, it's been made clear. Risk having even that compensation being taken away (there are folks who want to get rid of picks for leaving Free Agents, since the Yanks and BoSox have been playing that game for a while now). 2- Get what you can, while you can. Especially if you think there's good reason that your pitcher WON'T allow you to trade him during the year.

They would get 2 first round picks if they lost him to free agency (the Sox pick assuming it falls in the bottom half of the first round and a sandwich pick at the end of the round) and any changes to compensation would have to wait until the next collective bargaining agreement.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by molson

Yup.

Theo has done an incredible job building up a farm system - that's something the Sox have never had in my lifetime. It's time to cash in.

I think the Sox have always been known for a solid farm system. I know in the 70s they had a super farm system.

[JPhillips]

No way they get rid of draft pick compensation this year. And it's a first rounder(or second, but realistically those bottom feeders won't get Santana) and a sandwich pick.

There's a grea post here, http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/20/let...e-for-nothing/ ,that shows the odds are probably better that the draft picks will outplay the prospects. Admittedly this is a mid-season trade study, but I'd argue the results apply here.

[DaddyTorgo]

out of the latest ESPN article

"If the Red Sox get Santana," said an executive of one NL team that's grateful to be in the other league, "they might be the best team in the history of the frigging universe."

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by molson

I think Red Sox fans are over-thinking this thing.

What is Jacob Ellsbury's upside, really? When you have a chance at an elite pitcher you go after him.

an elite pitcher who wants a $150 million dollar 6 year contract extension?

idk...that's pretty rich for my blood (and given it's just John Henry's money, and he may have given Theo the okay and already committed in his mind to paying the luxury tax at some point in the future - when he has to replace Manny and Lowell), but seems to me that giving up Lester AND Ellsbury AND Lowrie would be...seriously depleting the farm. Those are you two best positional prospects (one of whom performed on the sport's biggest stage and hit very well (small sample size) late in the season), and a young lefty with great stuff who's already won the clinching game of the WS.

of all those players tbh, lester is the one i'm least attached to. love the kid's potential, but given the whole cancer-thing that could flare back up at any point i'm willing to concede that. I don't want to see Lowrie AND Ellsbury go. I think you need to keep at least one of them.

[molson]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

idk...that's pretty rich for my blood (and given it's just John Henry's money, and he may have given Theo the okay and already committed in his mind to paying the luxury tax at some point in the future - when he has to replace Manny and Lowell), but seems to me that giving up Lester AND Ellsbury AND Lowrie would be...seriously depleting the farm.

But what's the value of the "farm" if not for a trade like this? In the unlikely event that Ellsbury became a super-elite player on the level of Santana, you'd have to pay him a billion dollars anyway.

"Prospects" are for teams like the Twins and Pirates and Royals that continue to lie to their fans about having a "great future" with all their young talent (most of which won't pan out, and the few that do will be traded away anyway). Prospects have little or no value to the Red Sox or Yankees except as a commodity in trade. (I realize some young players make a big impact on the Sox in '07, but that was a nice surprise based on a limited sample size, and gave them the benefit of improving their trade value).

So in other words, trade the "prospects". If they turn out good, just trade back for them in 5 years for more prospects. Hey, baseball's screwed up, but if you're the Red Sox, take advantage.

[GreenMonster]

Pedro Martinez

November 18, 1997: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later and Carl Pavano. The Boston Red Sox sent Tony Armas (December 18, 1997) to the Montreal Expos to complete the trade.

This trade worked out pretty good. The other "huge" prospect the Expos could choose from was Brian Rose, all three were considered top MLB prospects. If we were making this deal for Dontrelle Willis I would have to think about it, for Johan Santana, how don't you make this move.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by molson

But what's the value of the "farm" if not for a trade like this? In the unlikely event that Ellsbury became a super-elite player on the level of Santana, you'd have to pay him a billion dollars anyway.

"Prospects" are for teams like the Twins and Pirates and Royals that continue to lie to their fans about having a "great future" with all their young talent (most of which won't pan out, and the few that do will be traded away anyway). Prospects have little or no value to the Red Sox or Yankees except as a commodity in trade. (I realize some young players make a big impact on the Sox in '07, but that was a nice surprise based on a limited sample size, and gave them the benefit of improving their trade value).

So in other words, trade the "prospects". If they turn out good, just trade back for them in 5 years for more prospects. Hey, baseball's screwed up, but if you're the Red Sox, take advantage.

I think trading Ellsbury is fucking crazy the guy is going to be the next Ichiro.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I think trading Ellsbury is fucking crazy the guy is going to be the next Ichiro.

This is a key point. Lester and Ellsbury are not your typical "prospect". Both have performed VERY well on the big stage. You can give up one, but not both. And the Sox have been looking for a center fielder and shortstop for quite a while.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I think trading Ellsbury is fucking crazy the guy is going to be the next Ichiro.

poor man's version maybe. great table setter and will score runs but has no arm compared to ichiro.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by molson

Yup.

Theo has done an incredible job building up a farm system - that's something the Sox have never had in my lifetime. It's time to cash in.

The Yankees and Red Sox are also notorious for hyping up their prospects over the past 10 years or so

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by molson

"Prospects" are for teams like the Twins and Pirates and Royals that continue to lie to their fans about having a "great future" with all their young talent (most of which won't pan out, and the few that do will be traded away anyway).

I agree with your overall point, and I realize the Twins' management has had their heads up their ass since the Castillo trade, but just for the record -- the Twins should not be mentioned in the same breath with the Pirates and Royals. They have won four of the last six AL Central titles, largely because their young talent DOES tend to pan out.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by LloydLungs

I agree with your overall point, and I realize the Twins' management has had their heads up their ass since the Castillo trade, but just for the record -- the Twins should not be mentioned in the same breath with the Pirates and Royals. They have won four of the last six AL Central titles, largely because their young talent DOES tend to pan out.

Well, Terry Ryan isn't in charge anymore. Difficult to live up to what Ryan did, but so far I'm not real excited about Bill Smith.

[rkmsuf]

Who cares if they trade prospects. Let the Twins develop them and then Boston can get them back later when they cost more and win with them.


Just get Ellsbury back in a few years if he turns out to be great. Twins won't pay him and they could probably use some additional cheaper prospects then.

[molson]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

The Yankees and Red Sox are also notorious for hyping up their prospects over the past 10 years or so

Hyping them up is just as good (even better), then them actually being good, when we're talking trade.

There's like a 2% chance Ellsbury will become Ichiro. And I'd still take Santana over Ichiro.