Primary Predictions

[larrymcg421]

Iowa caucuses are just around the corner. Who do you guys think will win?

Here are my thoughts:

Democrats

1) Clinton
2) Obama
3) Edwards

Clinton's campaign had some stumbles and Obama briefly took the lead in polls. However, she seems to have recovered from those gaffes and is now headed to victory. The margin is still narrow over Obama (except in ARG poll which has her with a 15 pt. lead), but I think Clinton's superior organization will help and she'll grab a good amount of the less than 15% voters. I wouldn't be surprised if Edwards surprises Obama for 2nd place, but I'll leave Obama here for now.

Republicans

1) Romney
2) McCain
3) Huckabee
4) Giuliani

Huckabee is fading fast. his lead in the polls has all but disappeared and I expect him to continue to sink due to lack of money, while Romney can keep spending and spending. McCain is on the rise and has been able to stay away from most of the mudslinging. Romney seems to be the only one that goes after him. I think some Republicans realize McCain is their best shot to win and this will catapult him to 2nd place. Huckabee will fizzle due to money issues and a weaker organization (very key in the caucus format). Giuliani could possiblt overtake him, but I don't think Huckabee will fall quite that far. The real gaffe is Giuliani deciding to ignore Iowa. There's no reason he couldn't have won this state the way things have gone down. Paul's poll numbers are rising but I doubt he gets many delegates (if any), because he's attracting mostly newer voters and they can't be trusted to show up in strong numbers (see Dean). Thompson's campaign is over.

[digamma]

Someone posed this bet to me the other day:

McCain + Romney in the New Hampshire Primar vs. Total points scored by AFC team in the Super Bowl

[larrymcg421]

I definitely like the McCain/Romney side of that action.

LA Times/Bloomberg poll of NH has Romney at 34 and McCain at 20. Those numbers will probably increase with all the undecideds still out there. Barring a major scandal by either candidate, I think the number you're looking at will be at least 60. The Pats ain't getting that even if Aaron Rodgers slips them the playbook as revenge for Favre's refusal to retire.

[larrymcg421]

dola

I assumed you meant percentages and not delegates. New Hampshire only has 27 delegates so that would make the bet similarly easy going the other way.

[molson]

I'll play, and take it one state further.

IOWA DEMS

Clinton 42%
Obama 17%
Edwards 15%
Biden 8%
Richardson 5%
Dodd 3%
Kucinich 2%

IOWA REPUB

Huckabee 24%
Romney 23%
Guilliani 17%
McCain 14%
Paul 12%
Thompson 5%

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMS

Clinton 38%
Obama 23%
Edwards 13%
Richardson 10%
Biden 5%
Kucinich 4%
Dodd 1%

NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUB

Romney 30%
McCain 21%
Giuiliani 17%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 6%
Thompson 6%

-I think Clinton's going to run away with it early
-Romney has positioned himself well in the first two states, but I think Huckabee will make things interesting with a "surprise" win in Iowa, with McCain and Guiliani doing well enough to stick around - a much more interesting race then the dems side of things.

[rowech]

On a side note...has there been a bigger dud than Thompson? When he joined the race, it was like a second coming. Now, he's a non-factor.

[Greyroofoo]

I'm thinking I'm from Michigan and my vote doesn't count.

[larrymcg421]

The problem with %'s in Iowa is the caucus format makes it unlikely that someone like Dodd or Kucinich will end up with any %, because if they're less than 15% at any precint, their voters have to find another candidate. Richardson and Biden might pick up a delegate here or there, but alot of their voters will be going elsewhere.

As for New Hampshire, I'll go:

Democrat

Clinton 45
Obama 19
Edwards 15

Republican

Romney 32
McCain 25
Giuliani 17
Paul 12
Huckabee 9

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

I'm thinking I'm from Michigan and my vote doesn't count.

Not really true. Michigan will still be influential as far as momentum/money, etc. Giuliani will certainly be looking to it making a difference maker for him. The delegate race usually becomes meaningless anyways, as most of the competitiors drop out before the majority of delegates are even won.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I definitely like the McCain/Romney side of that action.

LA Times/Bloomberg poll of NH has Romney at 34 and McCain at 20. Those numbers will probably increase with all the undecideds still out there. Barring a major scandal by either candidate, I think the number you're looking at will be at least 60. The Pats ain't getting that even if Aaron Rodgers slips them the playbook as revenge for Favre's refusal to retire.

Yes, McCain has surged and it looks like a no brainer now. When we were discussing it, McCain was in the low teens, so it was looking like a low 40ish number for the two of them. Odds still favor the politicians even at that number, but it made for interesting discussion.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by digamma

Yes, McCain has surged and it looks like a no brainer now. When we were discussing it, McCain was in the low teens, so it was looking like a low 40ish number for the two of them. Odds still favor the politicians even at that number, but it made for interesting discussion.

How about Giuliani's Iowa/NH total vs. AFC Superbowl score?

[Young Drachma]

Obama will either surge early or completely flop. I just can't see Hillary running away with this thing and if she does, I feel like whoever the GOP picks will continue to gain momentum and that the race will be like '04 when everyone figured it'd be a slam dunk for the Dems and they found a way to flub it up in every way possible.

[larrymcg421]

Zogby Iowa polls

Clinton 30, Obama 26, Edwards 26, Biden 5, Richardson 5
Huckabee 29, Romney 27, McCain 13, Thompson 8, Giuliani 7, Paul 7

ARG's NH polls:

Clinton 31, Obama 27, Edwards 21, Richardson 5, Biden 3
Romney 30, McCain 30, Huckabee 11, Giuliani 9, Paul 7, Thompson 3

[Cringer]

Ron Paul takes Texas I say.

[Jas_lov]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/app...EWS09/71231044

Latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.

Democrats: Hillary will win Iowa and the nomination. It's inevitable and unfortunate. Obama 2nd, Edwards 3rd, and who cares about the rest.

Republicans: This race seems a lot more interesting and wide open. The DM poll shows:

Huckabee 32%
Romney 26%
McCain 12%
Paul 9%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 5%

I expect Romney and Huckabee to finish 1-2. Some of the above predictions are good, but seem to have Giuliani too high. He's free falling faster than Tom Petty right now. I expect a 5th-6th place for him in Iowa. The race for 3rd is between Thompson, Paul, and McCain. Thompson is going nowhere so he's out. Paul vs. McCain for 3rd place will be big heading into NH where both of them see a big chance to appeal to the independents there. I'm gonna go with the biased pick and go with Paul 3rd. McCain will get 4th, Giuliani 5th, Thompson 6th. I'll probably be completely wrong, but I think it's kinda hard to guess whether or not Paul's support will show up and how big or small it really is. Will McCain do well in Iowa despite supporting the amnesty bill? How far have Giluiani and Thompson fallen? Should be interesting.

[larrymcg421]

There were polls suggesting Giuliani was making a move in Iowa. He was actually up to 14% at one point, but he has obviously dipped quite a bit. Similarly, McCain had hit a high of 20% and was only 6 points behind Huckabee at one point. Now his momentum seems to be confined to New Hampshire and he's giving Romney all he can take there. If Romney has to fight for New Hampshire, then it's going to be a tough road for him.

[larrymcg421]

Most recent Iowa polling info. Some pretty wide disparities on the Dem side...

Dems

ARG: Clinton 34, Obama 25, Edwards 21, Biden 8, Richardson 6
Zogby: Obama 31, Edwards 27, Clinton 24, Richardson 7, Biden 5

GOP

ARG: Huckabee 29, Romney 24, Thompson 13, McCain 11, Giuliani 8, Paul 6
Zogby: Huckabee 31, Romney 25, Thompson 11, McCain 10, Paul 10, Giuliani 6

[Galaxy]

The primary voting system is, well, interesting to say the least.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

I'm thinking I'm from Michigan and my vote doesn't count.

Vote Paul. Ron Paul.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Vote Paul. Ron Paul.

Please don't.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Vote Paul. Ron Paul.

Please do! I am tonight!

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Vote Paul. Ron Paul.

I'm not sure i even have enough time left since i would have to vote by absentee ballot.

[Coffee Warlord]

Vote Paul. Early and often, the Chicago way.

[Jas_lov]

http://www.billingsgazette.net/artic...wyo-caucus.txt

Do we have any Wyomingians here? There's supposedly a caucus/convention out there on Saturday and it's not getting any press. They have 12 delegates. I'm guessing Romney wins with strong showings by Paul and Thompson.

In Iowa, I'm sick of all of the commercials and I'll be glad when it's all over. I'm voting for Paul tonight and hoping he can beat McCain for 3rd. I don't expect the voter turnout to be good for the Republicans. I'm gonna change my Hillary pick in Iowa and go with John Edwards. It's tougher to predict the Democrat one because their process is so complicated and fucked up. Who knows which candidate the Biden and Richardson folks will go for when their candidate doesn't reach the 15% threshold.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

In Iowa, I'm sick of all of the commercials and I'll be glad when it's all over. I'm voting for Paul tonight and hoping he can beat McCain for 3rd. I don't expect the voter turnout to be good for the Republicans.

Out of curiousity, who are you going for if Paul doesn't get 15% in your caucus?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

http://www.billingsgazette.net/artic...wyo-caucus.txt

Do we have any Wyomingites here? There's supposedly a caucus/convention out there on Saturday and it's not getting any press. They have 12 delegates. I'm guessing Romney wins with strong showings by Paul and Thompson.

I switched my party affiliation from Republican to Libertarian last year. But only because I'm here, I'll change it back before May, since the Libs are so unorganized here and there isn't really a point in doing that.

The caucus is getting attention here, because they moved the date up. This thing is supposed to get Wyoming some "clout" in the system, but the GOP chastised them for moving it up and so, rather than offering up all of their delegates at this event this weekend, they will save the rest of their delegates (17 I think I heard on NPR yesterday) for May when the regularly scheduled caucus is.

So I don't know that it'll have a ton of influence. I do think Romney will do well here, because he actually bothered to show up in the state, as will Ron Paul. But if Huckabee does well in Iowa, he might gain a few more supporters here too.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by path12

Out of curiousity, who are you going for if Paul doesn't get 15% in your caucus?

Nobody. The Republicans do a straight secret ballot straw vote. None of this breaking into groups or 15% threshold crap. If the Republicans did the caucus like the Democrats, I probably wouldn't even go. I bet it takes them hours upon hours to vote, debate, convince others to join them, debate, vote, blah blah blah. The Democratic Iowa Caucus is a sham!

[Jas_lov]

Here's the Republican process:

How They Work – Caucuses start in Iowa at 7:00 p.m. Because it is already 8:00 p.m. on the East Coast, party leaders have opted to conduct the presidential preference polling early in the caucuses to accommodate the national radio and television networks who are trying to get results on the air during primetime. On caucus night, Iowans gather by party preference in designated schools, public buildings, or often even in private homes to elect delegates to the 99 county conventions. Presidential preference selection on the Republican side is done with a straw vote of those attending the caucuses. Democratic caucus-goers express their presidential preference through a show of hands, a sign-in sheet or by dividing themselves into groups according to candidates. A “third-party” may hold a convention to nominate one candidate for president and one for vice-president as well. The results of this caucus activity on both the Republican and Democratic sides are not binding on the elected delegates, but the delegates usually feel obligated to follow the wishes expressed by the caucus-goers. Thus the initial caucus results provide a good barometer of the composition of Iowa’s national delegation, keeping in mind the effect that candidates’ withdrawals can have right up to convention voting time.

http://www.iowagop.net/inner.asp?z=4

The Democratic caucus is explained here:

http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/pdfs/...ucus_Guide.pdf

It's much more complicated than it needs to be. Anyway, Obama is leading the polls, but will his young supporters come out to vote in this complicating and intimidating process? I'm skeptical and that's why I'm going with Edwards to win.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Obama will either surge early or completely flop. I just can't see Hillary running away with this thing and if she does, I feel like whoever the GOP picks will continue to gain momentum and that the race will be like '04 when everyone figured it'd be a slam dunk for the Dems and they found a way to flub it up in every way possible.

I agree with this 100%. I'm not even thinking flubbing will play a part. I don't think any candidate is superiors to any other candidate. I think Hillary will win and I think that's the best thing for the Republicans. Even Republicans sick of Bush are going to be anti Hillary. The Republican base will be as unified as ever.

I think Hillary wins the dem nomination. I think Romney wins the Rep nomination. I think Romney has a very, very good chance of winnning it all.

Me? I'm a registered independant. I'll be sitting the primary season out.

[path12]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I think Hillary wins the dem nomination. I think Romney wins the Rep nomination. I think Romney has a very, very good chance of winnning it all.

I'm not positive that Hillary will win the nomination yet, but I absolutely think that Republican nominee = NFC in Super Bowl.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by TroyF

The Republican base will be as unified as ever.

Explain to me how any one of the Republican candidates unifies the Republican party. As far as I can tell, each one has attributes or policy positions that alienate significant sections of the party. If you're arguing that all that will be forgotten if Hillary gets the Dem nomination then, well, you're welcome to that line of argument.

[Buccaneer]

It's amazing to me that I have never voted in primaries (that's going back to 1980). I believe in all of the states I have lived in only allowed non-independents to vote.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Explain to me how any one of the Republican candidates unifies the Republican party. As far as I can tell, each one has attributes or policy positions that alienate significant sections of the party. If you're arguing that all that will be forgotten if Hillary gets the Dem nomination then, well, you're welcome to that line of argument.

Know your recent history. There have been a sizable number of anti votes (either way) going back to 1992, and perhaps back to 1980. There is no such thing as major voting bloc alienation when the alternative is worse. You can argue that it affects turnouts but those "holding their noses to vote" still is greater than not voting (that otherwise would vote, not counting those that never voted much). One cannot underestimate the anti-Clinton feelings, from both parties, even if you don't understand where that is coming from.

[Crapshoot]

Prediction:

Dems

Obama - 38
Hillary - 32
Edwards -30

Reps

Huckabee - 29
Romney - 28
McCain - 16
Thompson - 15
Guliani - 8
Hunter - 4

[Big Fo]

Watching MSNBC, Obama is winning on entrance polls with Edwards and Clinton roughly tied in second. Hopefully it continues.

[molson]

CNN projects a win for Huckabee.

3-Way dead heat on the other side.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Nobody. The Republicans do a straight secret ballot straw vote. None of this breaking into groups or 15% threshold crap. If the Republicans did the caucus like the Democrats, I probably wouldn't even go. I bet it takes them hours upon hours to vote, debate, convince others to join them, debate, vote, blah blah blah. The Democratic Iowa Caucus is a sham!

It's a very strange way to vote, the whole process.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by molson

CNN projects a win for Huckabee.

3-Way dead heat on the other side.

Huckabee 35%, Roomney 24%. McCain with only 12%. I wonder how much of a boost Huckabee got from last night's Leno apperance.

[Galaxy]

How many "delegates" does each state provide?

[Buccaneer]

I hope you guys that are thinking/hoping for Huckabee will remember 1996 where the only other true recent social conservative, Pat Buchanan, won NH and I believe, almost won Iowa.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

How many "delegates" does each state provide?

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Huckabee 35%, Roomney 24%. McCain with only 12%.

Through 25% counted, Thompson sitting 3rd ahead of McCain 14% - 12%.
Paul fifth with 11%, Guiliani sixth with 4%, Hunter & Tancredo combined have less than 1%.

As (I guess) expected for the GOP at least, looks like there's more than three tickets out of Iowa but they're only good for travel to New Hampshire.

After next Tuesday, either Guiliani or McCain would seem to be finished unless they get a top three finish. And if Huckabee & Romney happened to finish 1 & 2 again (although I don't think they will) then wouldn't it seem that it's down to a two horse race?

edit to add: And while I was typing, things tightened up a little as it gets to 40% counted.
Same running order except that Rudy passed Ron, but it's just 31-23-13-12-11-10-<1 x2

[Buccaneer]

Interesting to read about the very high turnout.

[Galaxy]

NBC reports Obama wins Iowa.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Through 25% counted, Thompson sitting 3rd ahead of McCain 14% - 12%.
Paul fifth with 11%, Guiliani sixth with 4%, Hunter & Tancredo combined have less than 1%.

As (I guess) expected for the GOP at least, looks like there's more than three tickets out of Iowa but they're only good for travel to New Hampshire.

After next Tuesday, either Guiliani or McCain would seem to be finished unless they get a top three finish. And if Huckabee & Romney happened to finish 1 & 2 again (although I don't think they will) then wouldn't it seem that it's down to a two horse race?

edit to add: And while I was typing, things tightened up a little as it gets to 40% counted.
Same running order except that Rudy passed Ron, but it's just 31-23-13-12-11-10-<1 x2

Huckabee = Buchanan. An initial spurt but the wad has been shot. You know better than most it's all about organization. I look beyond the first two states and see a very different race, as what happened in 1996.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

NBC reports Obama wins Iowa.

Wrong. Hillary is supposed to win big.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Wrong. Hillary is supposed to win big.

Huh?

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Huh?

Look at some of the predictions here and what they had been saying up until a month or two ago.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Look at some of the predictions here and what they had been saying up until a month or two ago.

Ah, thanks. I really haven't been following the news until the last few days of the race.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Ah, thanks. I really haven't been following the news until the last few days of the race.

Welcome to 2008.