WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[ntndeacon]

I scanned Olie and she came back as a villager. For what it is worth.

[ntndeacon]

Mike, be fair. I voted for one of the leading people in day one. I did not then nor have I changed my mind that the day one non lynch was a good thing.

night 2 I will grant you.

[jeheinz72]

Just need scans from Jackal and Mr. W

[MikeVic]

I don't mean it to be attacking you or anything, I'm just looking at the votes to see if there's anything there. After so many days and knowing one wolf and many villagers, the votes should help us out I would think, somehow.

[ntndeacon]

I know, just clarifying a point more than anything else, Mike.

[jeheinz72]

Here are the results of people's scans, note, this discounts n0

Scanner - ConfirmedTrue - Confirmed False - Unknown

BK - 1-2-1
CR - 0-2-2
jeheinz - 2-0-1
Mau - 1-1-1
MikeV - 0-1-3
Mr.W - 1-1-1
Olie - 1-0-3
Pumpy - 1-1-2
RendeR - 2-2-0
SnDvls - 0-0-4
Jackal - 1-0-2

That means

Teachers Pet is me, Olie, SnDvls, Jackal
Class Clown is CR, MikeV or SnDvls

[jeheinz72]

Vote RendeR

I looked at the numbers, and while I don't want to give away how I figured this out, it's a lead-pipe-lock folks. Vote early, vote often.

[jeheinz72]

Bah
Vote RendeR

[jeheinz72]

Looks like Cronin voted RendeR on Day One as well, classic wolf move there. But even aside from that, I'm 100% confident that RendeR is a wolf.

[mauchow]

Okay for now. I'll bite only because I work again tonight. I'll have access I'm sure, but as of right now, I'm home til 1:00 or so. Another two hours.

vote render

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by path12

Damnit, I had a nice description typed up and lost the goddamn thing. OK. Flavor tomorrow.

Pieces of claphamsa were found through the school this morning. Bsak16 was also found dead in his bed, a look of terror on his face.

CLAPHAMSA, STUDENT AND EMPATH, HAS BEEN KILLED. HIS FELLOW EMPATH, BSAK16, ALSO DIED. Bsak16 was also a Math Whiz, instead of scanning he was able to read another players accuracy rate.

woo hoo!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

woo hoo!

jerk!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

jerk!

[ntndeacon]

ANyone have a ghost trap?

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Vote RendeR

I looked at the numbers, and while I don't want to give away how I figured this out, it's a lead-pipe-lock folks. Vote early, vote often.

Why do you not want to tell us how you figured this out?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Why do you not want to tell us how you figured this out?

Because I'd rather not give the wolves additional information about what I've deduced.

I will say that my vote cast on RendeR is 100% based on fact. I made no assumptions. No "theory" of mine led me to the conclusion. It's fact.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Because I'd rather not give the wolves additional information about what I've deduced.

I will say that my vote cast on RendeR is 100% based on fact. I made no assumptions. No "theory" of mine led me to the conclusion. It's fact.

OK...but, given the ruleset for this game, where we as villagers don't really know anything about roles - how am I to know that you weren't converted last night b/c you had earned our trust by killing Cronin so the wolves figured you as the best target for a conversion? I'm inclined to believe you, but would like something to go on other than "b/c I said so and it's based on fact"...does anyone think I'm crazy for thinking this?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

OK...but, given the ruleset for this game, where we as villagers don't really know anything about roles - how am I to know that you weren't converted last night b/c you had earned our trust by killing Cronin so the wolves figured you as the best target for a conversion? I'm inclined to believe you, but would like something to go on other than "b/c I said so and it's based on fact"...does anyone think I'm crazy for thinking this?

Well...

1. A conversion and a kill at night, much less a double. That seems pushing it. In addition, isn't this true of anyone? I mean using that leap of faith to discount me means you might as well never listen to anyone if you're going to go that far.

2. No, you're not crazy but, no offense Olie, you're on my shortlist for the remaining two wolves (not based on fact, admiteddly), so I"m not all that surprised you aren't climbing board with this. I figure you're trying to make me spill my beans.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

OK...but, given the ruleset for this game, where we as villagers don't really know anything about roles - how am I to know that you weren't converted last night b/c you had earned our trust by killing Cronin so the wolves figured you as the best target for a conversion? I'm inclined to believe you, but would like something to go on other than "b/c I said so and it's based on fact"...does anyone think I'm crazy for thinking this?

No I agree with you.

JH: You're about as close to a trusted villager as we have at the moment. But I can easily construct a situation where the wolves feel cronin is going down and decide to use a random bonus kill they received in order to earn some trust. And that's on top of a possible conversion. I really want to support you with Render, but as of now I just can't pull the trigger.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

No I agree with you.

JH: You're about as close to a trusted villager as we have at the moment. But I can easily construct a situation where the wolves feel cronin is going down and decide to use a random bonus kill they received in order to earn some trust. And that's on top of a possible conversion. I really want to support you with Render, but as of now I just can't pull the trigger.

I'm very surprised at this BK, it means either

A) You're a wolf, which I really haven't believed/thought much of other than a few jab-like notes for you or

B) You're significantly overthinking this. Occam's razor and all.

[Barkeep49]

Let me add that I think JH IS a villager. But I just can't get behind his "I know what I'm doing bit" unless he's become confident that he's the TP in which case then perhaps he lied about his latest scan and found Render to be a wolf? But JH if what you've done really is based on analysis I implore you to share it, in case it's faulty in some way you didn't think of or is good so the rest of us can build off of it and join you in lynching Render.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'm very surprised at this BK, it means either

A) You're a wolf, which I really haven't believed/thought much of other than a few jab-like notes for you or

B) You're significantly overthinking this. Occam's razor and all.

Yeah that's why I added to it in 1721. I think the idea of you being a wolf is pretty silly. But that doesn't reassure me to vote for Render.

[jeheinz72]

I guess let's put it another way here.

We don't have much (well I have a wolf in my sights, 100%), so what are our options here

1. We can piddle around and take a hunch here, a hunch there and hope we can fend off wolfish manipulation enough to possibly make the right call, provided we're even lucky enough to create even a Wolf vs Villager situation or...

2. We can take the deduced fact of someone who has done the most villager-proving thing so far in this game and just trust that I'm not out to screw people and give me the benefit of the doubt as someone who has shown so far I'm working for the village (moreso than anyone else here who is still alive can say)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Let me add that I think JH IS a villager. But I just can't get behind his "I know what I'm doing bit" unless he's become confident that he's the TP in which case then perhaps he lied about his latest scan and found Render to be a wolf? But JH if what you've done really is based on analysis I implore you to share it, in case it's faulty in some way you didn't think of or is good so the rest of us can build off of it and join you in lynching Render.

My call on RendeR has nothing to do with me, my scanning abilities or if I'm the TP. It just took me looking at my spreadsheet and seeing what was in front of me.

BK, I think you're a villager, you seem to think I am. I can share what I've deduced, but it's not in the best interest of the village for me to do so. It's not faulty. It's not, 100%. There's nothing to be built off of it, it is what it is, RendeR is a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

I'm not going to push for JH to reveal anymore. I respect what he's doing even if I don't agree with it. I'm curious to see if anyone else has any thoughts about today. If something more compelling doesn't come along I will be joining him on Render. JH deserves the benefit of the doubt. If I have time I'm also going to try and do a post analysis for Render (haven't done one of those in a few games and perhaps it'll be helpful).

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

My call on RendeR has nothing to do with me, my scanning abilities or if I'm the TP. It just took me looking at my spreadsheet and seeing what was in front of me.

BK, I think you're a villager, you seem to think I am. I can share what I've deduced, but it's not in the best interest of the village for me to do so. It's not faulty. It's not, 100%. There's nothing to be built off of it, it is what it is, RendeR is a wolf.

We keep cross posting with each other.

I get what you're saying now. I'm going to try and double check this myself now that I think I understand what you're saying, but it's going to take some work to replicate what you've done.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm not going to push for JH to reveal anymore. I respect what he's doing even if I don't agree with it. I'm curious to see if anyone else has any thoughts about today. If something more compelling doesn't come along I will be joining him on Render. JH deserves the benefit of the doubt. If I have time I'm also going to try and do a post analysis for Render (haven't done one of those in a few games and perhaps it'll be helpful).

Good plan BK, I'll peek as well. Once I found this, I did some thinking on it myself, quickly (admiteddly), and the first two things that I noticed/popped into my head were

A) Cronin voting for him Day One. We both/all know that's a wolf move.

B) RendeR, a guy who trumps his disdain for runaway votes and someone I read as someone who thinks for himself being all too happy to just follow my vote yesterday. It pinged me yesterday even, but I was one foot out the door.

Originally Posted by RendeR

I'm gonna get my vote in now. Heiney is the hero of the day, if he says lynch DC then I'm gonna sheep it and vote DC:

Vote DodgerChick

Now I do think I earned that kind of trust yesterday, but I was wrong (though we learned some value from her death). But that struck me then.

I'll look for more as well.

[oliegirl]

OK - as I said before, I suck with number and analysis (I'm a English/History person - NOT a math/science person), but I am a villager so I'm willing to put my trust in Heinz today as he did get Cronin for us yesterday.

VOTE RENDER

[jeheinz72]

Good call Olie!

[oliegirl]

My gut says so...but if you turn out to be wrong, consider yourself lynched tomorrow

[jeheinz72]

Hey Path, what's the plan for the weekend. I know I 100% won't be around. I have my grandmothers wake on Saturday and my sons 1st birthday on Sunday, so any slim chance I'd have of making it online anyhow is officially nil.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

My gut says so...but if you turn out to be wrong, consider yourself lynched tomorrow

I'm not worried. Not one bit (well outside of some crazy game construct). I'll gladly take a lynch if this is wrong.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Hey Path, what's the plan for the weekend. I know I 100% won't be around. I have my grandmothers wake on Saturday and my sons 1st birthday on Sunday, so any slim chance I'd have of making it online anyhow is officially nil.

Sorry to hear about your grandmother, but 1st b'day parties are awesome! Have fun!!!!

Path, my availability is totally dependant on the weather...my son has a soccer tournament schedule but it's been raining for about 24 hours and isn't supposed to stop until sometime tomorrow so there is a good chance it's going to be rained out. I'm fine with an extended day 6 (I think 6 - you didn't update the thread title) and a deadline on Sunday evening...

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Sorry to hear about your grandmother, but 1st b'day parties are awesome! Have fun!!!!

Thanks! It wasn't out of the blue, so it's not as traumatic as it likely sounds.

And yeah, I can't wait. My daughters was a blast, I'm sure this will too. Always fun to watch a 1-year-old plow into their first piece of cake.

[RendeR]

Ok, so looking at the scans? and the votes? you've got a drop dead lock that I'm a wolf?

If you're going to shanghai MY ass buster you had best bring some facts.

Either lay it out plainly with some sort of facts to back it up or back off. I've been doing whatever I can thus far. Scans can't be trusted as we don't know the TP or CC yet, so the reliability of ANY scan result is suspect.

We have a shit night and you suddenly jump in here spouting off that You KNOW I'm a wolf? WTF dude?

Yes I think for myself but this game doesn't leave a lot of room for following a trail of any kind. You throw my vote for DC out as evidence? You were the man of the hour yesterday, you earned that trust by your actions, but like BK mentioned above, its not unheard of for the wolves to throw someone under the bus to buy that sort of thing.

So lets have it, what's your evidence, seriously. lay it out. Otherwise I have to assume you're in kahoots with the rest of the wolves or have been one all along.

[RendeR]

And yes I'm pissed off. I've tried to do my best for the students in this convoluted fracking game and all I get for the effort is JH spouting nonsense when he's got nothing better to froth at the mouth over.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Thanks! It wasn't out of the blue, so it's not as traumatic as it likely sounds.

And yeah, I can't wait. My daughters was a blast, I'm sure this will too. Always fun to watch a 1-year-old plow into their first piece of cake.

Hehe. Plow.

[The Jackal]

Hey guys just got caught up, can't think of a much crappier night kill result than that, especially since bsak gave us nothing.. Did any of his posts even hint at people?

Mr w came up student for me

I'm going to do a little more reading before I hop into any voting

Also, the next deadline being monday after tonight would be fine with me

[jeheinz72]

Haha, I was waiting for the RendeR comeback and you didn't disappoint!

Some points

A) I'm sure you'd like nothing more than for me to spell out exactly how I arrived at this conclusion. I"m not going to do that though. It'd play right into your friends (the other wolves') hands.

B) Your DC vote in and of itself isn't evidence. It's supporting information, if you will.

But sorry, I'm not stating my facts. At least not at *your* request. Since you're a wolf.

[MikeVic]

I'm listening to heinz right now, but just don't want to stick a vote out yet.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Haha, I was waiting for the RendeR comeback and you didn't disappoint!

Some points

A) I'm sure you'd like nothing more than for me to spell out exactly how I arrived at this conclusion. I"m not going to do that though. It'd play right into your friends (the other wolves') hands.

B) Your DC vote in and of itself isn't evidence. It's supporting information, if you will.

But sorry, I'm not stating my facts. At least not at *your* request. Since you're a wolf.

Then it would appear that you HAVE no evidence, so why the attack on me? This is ridiculous heiney, you should know as well as anyone that a baseless accusation and a flat refusal to lay out your reasonings makes you look like a wolf more than anyone.

What gives?

You say you KNOW I'm a wolf, then explain it. If you can't then seriously, you're full of it as far as I'm concerned.

*takes a deep breath* look, I'm not gonna spiral out of control here. I'm done with that. You think you have something, bring it and let EVERYONE decide for themselves. Don't lead a blind man's bluff charge and expect us to fall for it..AGAIN.

[The Jackal]

For now I'm going to go with heinz because he's really the only one I fully trust

Thing is, render wasn't at the top of my suspicion list so I'm going to see what he and others have to say, maybe someone else can throw out a person they think is wolfy so we have some side discussion to heinz/render?

I can't remember the color coding and I'm still doing all this from my phone so hopefully bold will be enough

vote render

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Then it would appear that you HAVE no evidence, so why the attack on me? This is ridiculous heiney, you should know as well as anyone that a baseless accusation and a flat refusal to lay out your reasonings makes you look like a wolf more than anyone.

What gives?

You say you KNOW I'm a wolf, then explain it. If you can't then seriously, you're full of it as far as I'm concerned.

*takes a deep breath* look, I'm not gonna spiral out of control here. I'm done with that. You think you have something, bring it and let EVERYONE decide for themselves. Don't lead a blind man's bluff charge and expect us to fall for it..AGAIN.

You can word your request for my information 1000 different ways, but I'm not giving it up for you. So save your keyboard mate

I'll lay it out like this.

I've tracked every scan
I've looked at who scanned who
I've looked at who got scanned
I've looked at whether scans ended up correct, incorrect or unknown
I've looked, and looked, and looked.
I have practically friggin memorized who everyone has scanned

This morning, I saw it. It was the clear path of logic, in the scans. *Not unknown scans, so it's not wolf trickery. *I didn't fudge any numbers on accuracy or any of that. I saw it. It's a clear route which leads to you being a wolf. Crystal.

That's all I'm saying.

[The Jackal]

One thing I do remember is that clap was going after mau for at least a day before he got killed

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Hey Path, what's the plan for the weekend. I know I 100% won't be around. I have my grandmothers wake on Saturday and my sons 1st birthday on Sunday, so any slim chance I'd have of making it online anyhow is officially nil.

Sorry for your loss heinz

[jeheinz72]

It's like those logic word puzzles some of you may have seen when you're a kid. Ya know those whole ones where you get:

"The green car finished behind the blue car, but ahead of the red car"
"Timmy didn't drive the red or green car, and didn't finish last"
"The yellow car has a number higher than that of the blue car, but lower than the green car"

And then you take those clues with the little grid and you figure out that Billy drove the Blue car with the number 3 and finished first and all that? Ya know those.

Yeah, it's like that.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Sorry for your loss heinz

No worries, and thanks DC. Sorry for uh gettin' ya voted out. Yeah, that's my bad.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

It's like those logic word puzzles some of you may have seen when you're a kid. Ya know those whole ones where you get:

"The green car finished behind the blue car, but ahead of the red car"
"Timmy didn't drive the red or green car, and didn't finish last"
"The yellow car has a number higher than that of the blue car, but lower than the green car"

And then you take those clues with the little grid and you figure out that Billy drove the Blue car with the number 3 and finished first and all that? Ya know those.

Yeah, it's like that.

Let me send your message back at you:

You can say you KNOW something in as many ways and naalogies as you want heinz, but until you PRODUCE the evidence, you're playing a dangerous game of pure conjecture.

You're unwilling to provide facts because you have nothing beyond your guts to go on and you don't have another suitable target, so you're picking one at random.

I don't buy it. ANd neither should anyone else.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

You're unwilling to provide facts because you have nothing beyond your guts to go on and you don't have another suitable target, so you're picking one at random.

I don't buy it. ANd neither should anyone else.

No, I'm not going on guts.

And I don't expect *you* to buy it.

Everyone else should, and seems to be making the right call.

[The Jackal]

Well render, at this point, I'm inclined to trust heinz even though he won't fully reveal his thoughts because for once I actually know he's a good guy, unless a wolf found the gun and took out another wolf to give them full game immunity

But I would also like to say I don't want to see this turn into a runaway, render has made a couple of decent points, but when heinz is 100% he rarely backs down