WW LXXXIV -- Life Contingencies (GAME OVER) - Page 6

RendeR · 11-06-2008, 08:22 PM

So as I see it that leaves the percentages 60/20/20 packer/Lathum/Me?

hoopsguy · 11-06-2008, 08:48 PM

Hmm - not sure whether to leave it on PF or switch over to Lathum.

RendeR · 11-06-2008, 08:54 PM

At what benefit? 40/40/20?

hoopsguy · 11-06-2008, 08:56 PM

UNVOTE PACKERFANATIC
VOTE LATHUM

hoopsguy · 11-06-2008, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR

At what benefit? 40/40/20?

Yeah, and because I think that PF is telling the truth. I honestly don't like the "no defense, minimal posting" strategy, so I'm kind of tempted to leave the vote on him just out of spite.

But I'm still going to play for the win, so I'll instead vote for the guy that I think is the more likely of the candidates to be a wolf.

In the end, I'm just tilting the odds on random.org, but isn't that the whole point of this ruleset? To try and give yourself the best odds, hoping that you get the result you deserve?

RendeR · 11-06-2008, 09:13 PM

True enough. Someone go wake up Pass

hoopsguy · 11-06-2008, 09:17 PM

I would be very pleased if this game ends tonight. I'm not wild about my chances of being around tomorrow.

RendeR · 11-06-2008, 09:26 PM

It would be nice to be on the winning side and ALIVE for a change.

Passacaglia · 11-06-2008, 09:59 PM

The village get together and lynches Lathum. Lathum was a villager!

hoopsguy · 11-06-2008, 10:02 PM

Hmm - will be interested to learn after the game if:
1.) PF was a wolf
2.) My change made a difference in the result

Sorry Lathum.

PackerFanatic · 11-06-2008, 10:12 PM

PF is not and never was a wolf.

RendeR · 11-06-2008, 10:18 PM

Hrm.....that narrows it down a bit, so based on Hoops being good, that leaves path and Packer...P or not to P that is our question.

Lathum · 11-06-2008, 10:23 PM

RendeR · 11-06-2008, 11:01 PM

I think this means your dead dear friend. Sorry bout that.

hoopsguy · 11-06-2008, 11:29 PM

I guess there is a 60% likelihood that I'll be around tomorrow, which is nice. Vote will go in early, because I do not expect to have much site access tomorrow.

So if people have any really deep thoughts on why they should not be getting a vote, I would love to see them when I wake up in the morning. Similarly, if people have questions for me I'll try to respond to them early.

Passacaglia · 11-07-2008, 07:24 AM

You wake up to find that path12 has gone missing. Path12 was a villager!

hoopsguy · 11-07-2008, 08:22 AM

K, that was a surprise. Guess this is pretty much my game call, since you two are going to vote for each other.

I would hope that the two of you will offer up some conversation to help this process along. If not, I may just end up abstaining and hope that we get the right random.org result. My vote will end up either giving us 16% or losing us 16% - if I don't have some measure of confidence in the choice I'll just sit on the 50% and hope for the best.

So, ball is in your court - if you are a villager you should want the 66% chance of winning, not the 50% (or 33% if the other person is more convincing). Let's make today at least a little more fun than yesterday.

PackerFanatic · 11-07-2008, 08:51 AM

That really does surprise me...and it takes down the trust on you a little bit, hoops. Which is probably exactly what Render wanted.

I went back and read the thread, and there isn't a whole lot to go on. His day 1 vote for Lathum was a random vote (and we know Lathum was a villager), his next 2 votes were following the pack (Jackal, once he was outed - a wolf would have to make this play anyway, knowing that he is toast to begin with) and then a vote on me, with nothing else to really go on. He revealed last out of the group, following the only logical group (since the roled group already had 4) I think Render made a good play not killing Hoops, since Hoops started the run on me yesterday and he probably figured he would be able to get him on his side again, helping his chances of winning today. I have no choice but to trust Hoops right now and go with my gut.

VOTE RENDER

hoopsguy · 11-07-2008, 08:57 AM

But RendeR didn't vote for you at the end yesterday, he instead voted for Lathum. I don't understand why, as a wolf, he would feel the need to go a different direction. All he wants to do is survive another day - does moving the vote to Lathum instead of following the train of votes on you make sense?

Also, Jackal calls him out as the leading guy on D1 when he is only one vote ahead of Lathum - I can't see the wolves doing that. They would be trying to push the Lathum train at that point, since they don't want to see their guy having the highest % on D1.

PackerFanatic · 11-07-2008, 09:41 AM

Those are two great points, and I really can't refute either one. Render has played it well - but all I know right now is what I know about me. And that is that I am not the wolf.

path12 · 11-07-2008, 11:46 AM

Well crap, I even had some analysis from late last night I was saving for this morning.

RendeR · 11-07-2008, 12:58 PM

Well that makes today's vote easy then doesn't it? I know its not ME and I know (or at least trust) that its not Hoops. Its hard to believe the duke could be bad without a conversion and the rules say there is none. So its gotta be Packer.

Vote PACKERFANATIC

Hoops hit the nail on the head, if I were a wolf I certainly wouldn't have thinned out the voting I'd have followed the crowd to make one vote getter the largest possible chance. I didn't, I went where my gut told me to go, granted I was wrong, freely admitted, but that happens. Especially where Lathum is concerned

Your it dude. You have to be at this point. I'm not and Hoops has been cleared all game and I can't argue with that at this point.

basically its up to Hoops, who does he think is the wolf?

hoopsguy · 11-07-2008, 05:09 PM

Hope that I've done my analysis correctly on this one. If not, hope that we get lucky with random.org.

I'll take it a step further, since I don't think there is anymore analysis coming and I don't see changes to self-votes. Pass, wrap this one up.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC
VOTE NIGHTFALL

PackerFanatic · 11-07-2008, 06:53 PM

I certainly hope we get lucky too...

Passacaglia · 11-07-2008, 07:47 PM

Seems a bit unfulfilling to have the game wrapped up by random numbers, eh? The village has put itself in some danger at endgame, giving itself a 2/3 chance of lynching one of its own, and only a 1/3 chance of lynching the final wolf. The random roll comes in...we roll 1 through 100. 1 through 66 lynches the villager, PackerFanatic, 67 through 99 lynches the wolf, RendeR, 100 is a "roll again" for you Trivial Pursuit fans out there. Roll result coming soonish.

Hannibal Lecter · 11-07-2008, 07:51 PM

go go go!

Hannibal Lecter · 11-07-2008, 07:52 PM

wait, you said who the wolf was!

Hannibal Lecter · 11-07-2008, 07:52 PM

RendeR is teh wolfy!

Passacaglia · 11-07-2008, 07:52 PM

Hannibal Lecter · 11-07-2008, 07:59 PM

BOOOOO! Lame!

Hannibal Lecter · 11-07-2008, 07:59 PM

Does not Render need to give a night kill with himself as a possibility as a night kill?

Passacaglia · 11-07-2008, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Rules

The wolves make their kill at night. They will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of dying from the wolves that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

The stuff in bold happened.

hoopsguy · 11-07-2008, 08:38 PM

Oh, well. Sorry that I guessed wrong. See you guys next game.

Danny · 11-07-2008, 08:52 PM

3 wolves in a 9 person game? Wow

The Jackal · 11-07-2008, 11:57 PM

Great success!

RendeR · 11-08-2008, 12:20 PM

So Who WON??? =)
I don't understand the results!!!

YAY!! I finally read page 1 =)

I FINALLY WON A WW GAME!!!!

Woohoooooooo!

RendeR · 11-08-2008, 11:29 PM

Ok I'm done, back to sucking wind =)

The Jackal · 11-09-2008, 03:30 AM

Way to finish it off solo RendeR.

jeheinz72 · 11-10-2008, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

3 wolves in a 9 person game? Wow

It really made some sense when you factor in that half the villagers were roled and that we wolves had to actually outnumber the village (as opposed to the 1:1 ratio)

jeheinz72 · 11-10-2008, 09:33 AM

Kudos to my man RendeR for bringing it home. I'll take the W even if I did little to earn it other than being the sacrificial lamb for hoops' (rather brilliant) strategy.

RendeR · 11-10-2008, 02:34 PM

I'd like to say it was my magnificent skill or some cruel twist of fate that simply makes me awesome, but frankly, I suck and got lucky =)

PackerFanatic · 11-10-2008, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR

I'd like to say it was my magnificent skill or some cruel twist of fate that simply makes me awesome, but frankly, I suck and got lucky =)

And you played it well enough where I couldn't talk myself out of it - not that I could anyway, but still

11-06-2008, 10:12 PM	#261
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	PF is not and never was a wolf. __________________ Commissioner of the RNFL

11-06-2008, 10:23 PM	#263
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	WTF

11-07-2008, 08:51 AM	#268
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	That really does surprise me...and it takes down the trust on you a little bit, hoops. Which is probably exactly what Render wanted. I went back and read the thread, and there isn't a whole lot to go on. His day 1 vote for Lathum was a random vote (and we know Lathum was a villager), his next 2 votes were following the pack (Jackal, once he was outed - a wolf would have to make this play anyway, knowing that he is toast to begin with) and then a vote on me, with nothing else to really go on. He revealed last out of the group, following the only logical group (since the roled group already had 4) I think Render made a good play not killing Hoops, since Hoops started the run on me yesterday and he probably figured he would be able to get him on his side again, helping his chances of winning today. I have no choice but to trust Hoops right now and go with my gut. VOTE RENDER __________________ Commissioner of the RNFL

11-07-2008, 09:41 AM	#270
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Those are two great points, and I really can't refute either one. Render has played it well - but all I know right now is what I know about me. And that is that I am not the wolf. __________________ Commissioner of the RNFL

11-07-2008, 11:46 AM	#271
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	Well crap, I even had some analysis from late last night I was saving for this morning. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

11-06-2008, 08:22 PM	#251
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	So as I see it that leaves the percentages 60/20/20 packer/Lathum/Me?

11-06-2008, 08:48 PM	#252
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Hmm - not sure whether to leave it on PF or switch over to Lathum.

11-06-2008, 08:54 PM	#253
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	At what benefit? 40/40/20?

11-06-2008, 08:56 PM	#254
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	UNVOTE PACKERFANATIC VOTE LATHUM

11-06-2008, 09:13 PM	#256
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	True enough. Someone go wake up Pass

11-06-2008, 09:17 PM	#257
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I would be very pleased if this game ends tonight. I'm not wild about my chances of being around tomorrow.

11-06-2008, 09:26 PM	#258
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	It would be nice to be on the winning side and ALIVE for a change.

11-06-2008, 09:59 PM	#259
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	The village get together and lynches Lathum. Lathum was a villager!

11-06-2008, 10:02 PM	#260
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Hmm - will be interested to learn after the game if: 1.) PF was a wolf 2.) My change made a difference in the result Sorry Lathum.

11-06-2008, 10:18 PM	#262
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	Hrm.....that narrows it down a bit, so based on Hoops being good, that leaves path and Packer...P or not to P that is our question.

11-06-2008, 11:01 PM	#264
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	I think this means your dead dear friend. Sorry bout that.

11-06-2008, 11:29 PM	#265
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I guess there is a 60% likelihood that I'll be around tomorrow, which is nice. Vote will go in early, because I do not expect to have much site access tomorrow. So if people have any really deep thoughts on why they should not be getting a vote, I would love to see them when I wake up in the morning. Similarly, if people have questions for me I'll try to respond to them early.

11-07-2008, 07:24 AM	#266
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	You wake up to find that path12 has gone missing. Path12 was a villager!

11-07-2008, 08:22 AM	#267
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	K, that was a surprise. Guess this is pretty much my game call, since you two are going to vote for each other. I would hope that the two of you will offer up some conversation to help this process along. If not, I may just end up abstaining and hope that we get the right random.org result. My vote will end up either giving us 16% or losing us 16% - if I don't have some measure of confidence in the choice I'll just sit on the 50% and hope for the best. So, ball is in your court - if you are a villager you should want the 66% chance of winning, not the 50% (or 33% if the other person is more convincing). Let's make today at least a little more fun than yesterday.

11-07-2008, 08:57 AM	#269
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	But RendeR didn't vote for you at the end yesterday, he instead voted for Lathum. I don't understand why, as a wolf, he would feel the need to go a different direction. All he wants to do is survive another day - does moving the vote to Lathum instead of following the train of votes on you make sense? Also, Jackal calls him out as the leading guy on D1 when he is only one vote ahead of Lathum - I can't see the wolves doing that. They would be trying to push the Lathum train at that point, since they don't want to see their guy having the highest % on D1.

11-07-2008, 12:58 PM	#272
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	Well that makes today's vote easy then doesn't it? I know its not ME and I know (or at least trust) that its not Hoops. Its hard to believe the duke could be bad without a conversion and the rules say there is none. So its gotta be Packer. Vote PACKERFANATIC Hoops hit the nail on the head, if I were a wolf I certainly wouldn't have thinned out the voting I'd have followed the crowd to make one vote getter the largest possible chance. I didn't, I went where my gut told me to go, granted I was wrong, freely admitted, but that happens. Especially where Lathum is concerned Your it dude. You have to be at this point. I'm not and Hoops has been cleared all game and I can't argue with that at this point. basically its up to Hoops, who does he think is the wolf?

11-07-2008, 05:09 PM	#273
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Hope that I've done my analysis correctly on this one. If not, hope that we get lucky with random.org. I'll take it a step further, since I don't think there is anymore analysis coming and I don't see changes to self-votes. Pass, wrap this one up. VOTE PACKERFANATIC VOTE NIGHTFALL

11-07-2008, 06:53 PM	#274
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	I certainly hope we get lucky too... __________________ Commissioner of the RNFL

11-07-2008, 07:47 PM	#275
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Seems a bit unfulfilling to have the game wrapped up by random numbers, eh? The village has put itself in some danger at endgame, giving itself a 2/3 chance of lynching one of its own, and only a 1/3 chance of lynching the final wolf. The random roll comes in...we roll 1 through 100. 1 through 66 lynches the villager, PackerFanatic, 67 through 99 lynches the wolf, RendeR, 100 is a "roll again" for you Trivial Pursuit fans out there. Roll result coming soonish.

11-07-2008, 07:51 PM	#276
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	go go go!

11-07-2008, 07:52 PM	#277
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	wait, you said who the wolf was!

11-07-2008, 07:52 PM	#278
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	RendeR is teh wolfy!

11-07-2008, 07:52 PM	#279
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	66

11-07-2008, 07:59 PM	#280
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	BOOOOO! Lame!

11-07-2008, 07:59 PM	#281
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	Does not Render need to give a night kill with himself as a possibility as a night kill?

11-07-2008, 08:38 PM	#283
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Oh, well. Sorry that I guessed wrong. See you guys next game.

11-07-2008, 08:52 PM	#284
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	3 wolves in a 9 person game? Wow

11-07-2008, 11:57 PM	#285
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Great success!

11-08-2008, 12:20 PM	#286
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	So Who WON??? =) I don't understand the results!!! YAY!! I finally read page 1 =) I FINALLY WON A WW GAME!!!! Woohoooooooo! Last edited by RendeR : 11-08-2008 at 11:29 PM.

11-08-2008, 11:29 PM	#287
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	Ok I'm done, back to sucking wind =)