WW LXXXV -- Life Contingencies II (GAME OVER)

[Passacaglia]

I've got 2 for Alan T, and one for Chief Rum. Yes, the game is over because Alan T is dead and was a villager, but if a wolf had died, the game would not have been over yet.

Thanks for playing, everyone! I'd love to hear comments. I think this type of game allows for a lot of different angles, and was much better with it being the second time most people were playing it, and we had more people in general.

[Danny]

The game would have been over anyway basically since it would have come to a 1 to 1 matchup with each person voting for the other on the next day.

Still, I apologize since I shouldn't have made a post at all.

[Danny]

For anyone interested here were my scan breakdowns

Night 1
Render 40%
Hannibal 40%
AlanT 20%

Night 2
Hannibal 40%
Chief Rum 40%
AlanT 20%

Night 3
Chief Rum 40%
Hoopsguy 40%
AlanT 20%

My biggest mistake was not trying to scan or keep the vote on Path. That said, I suspected Hannibal and then Chief Rum quite a bit and was pretty sure Packer was good. This was my first game as seer and I think I did a good job hiding my role until I scanned Hannibal. Not sure if the wolves had any idea I was the seer or not. I would like to see their breakdowns of kill % as well.

Overall, I had fun, mostly since it was my first game as seer. This could have been a very different game if we killed Path day 1 and I hit the scan on Hannibal night 1 or that matter if any roll went our way through the first three days

[Danny]

Oh and good job wolves

[Chief Rum]

Woohoo!

I enjoyed it, but then, the winners tend to enjoy games. I can certainly understand the randomness getting to people, and we wolves did catch some breaks with the rolls.

Probably the big time key roll was when Danny was killed. He said he was considering scanning me, and I certainly would have been on the list. And I think path would have been on his list, too. Also, that was when we truly only had the 40% shot at him. The previous rolls, it wasn't so much luck, as we already knew two roled players, so had an 80% chance on the first day of grabbing a roled player, and we felt we were pretty comfortable on Day Two as well, because all three options were hurting us, even though we only had a 40% chance of getting a roled player (which we did).

I would also argue that BK buying it on Day One helped the village a little, because it removed a guy who would have been another possible wolf, and that was a pretty unlikely roll (most unliekly of the game, I think).

All that said, yeah, we clearly had some luck. I give us points, really, that we made the right decisions, but that's about it.

I got a lot of leverage out of voting for path on Day Two. It was a calculated risk. Would I trade a 10% chance (or so) of path buying it for increased trust? I think it was a good decision, but then, if he had died, well, not so good.

This sort of game is a little like poker or blackjack. You can improve your chances, but in the end, it's the cards that decide it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

The game would have been over anyway basically since it would have come to a 1 to 1 matchup with each person voting for the other on the next day.

Still, I apologize since I shouldn't have made a post at all.

No, you're right -- I didn't realize it all could have played out at once. No problems with your post.

[Passacaglia]

I got a lot of leverage out of voting for path on Day Two. It was a calculated risk. Would I trade a 10% chance (or so) of path buying it for increased trust? I think it was a good decision, but then, if he had died, well, not so good.

I think this is the key question. It seems like for most people, it depends on what 10% we're increasing. If it's from 10 to 20, it might not be a big deal, if it's from 40 to 50, that might get scary, and if it's from 0 to 10, well, you might want to keep it at 0 to make sure you're okay. IIRC, path was leading or tied for the lead a couple nights, but the majority of votes still were on villagers, so in that sense it was more likely that you'd kill a villager -- but getting to a point where a majority of people are voting for wolves seems like a difficult task.

[Passacaglia]

My bad: Day 1, it was 6 votes for wolves to 5 for villagers. So you got screwed a little there, but that margin makes it pretty much a coin flip.

[PackerFanatic]

Wow, I voted for a wolf day one, nice

No more random games.

[Lathum]

my god how did Path survive. It was so obvious to me he and Hannibel were in cahoots

[The Jackal]

that was some rough random.org, us wolves got lucky last game.. this was plain crazy

[The Jackal]

why the hell am i awake

[Hannibal Lecter]

go us!

[hoopsguy]

I did not have all that much fun this game. Obviously, I was wrong a lot of the time with my guesses but beyond that it gets frustrating when you feel that the majority of the people who are alive are not actively participating in the game.

Chief, if the vote on Path was a calculated risk then kudos because it was extremely effective. When I was doing my six potential wolf pairings you/Path would have been the last one I suspected based on that vote.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Without much to go on I think the way to go today is either Hannibal Lechter or Path.

Hannibal is the only person we know who voted on a known villager, was it to protect Path?

I think thats where if nothing else we get the most info from

sigh

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

sigh

I was right there with you. I just did a cruddy job of convincing anyone else.

[hoopsguy]

I just could not fathom why Path, as a wolf, would have any reason to go after the Duke in such a deliberate manner. When a good player makes bad decisions, I'm more inclined to think it is poorly conceived villager play than poorly conceived wolf play.

[jeheinz72]

Good thing they killed me early. I would've surely led the village to victory.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't do well in WW games when I feel frustrated the entire game. It ends up being too much like my first marriage.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

my god how did Path survive. It was so obvious to me he and Hannibel were in cahoots

I was not happy when Hannibal decided to support me on day 1......though I truly thought my play wasn't all as shocking as it seemed to everyone else.

Chief did a hell of a job staying in the game and off the radar for the most part.....of course I was in the crosshairs all game and the rolls just kept going my way so that ended up helping out the wolves, IMO.

Anyway, thanks to Pass for running the game, I'm sorry I didn't put as much into it as it deserved. See you guys in awhile.

[The Jackal]

Chief always stays off the damn radar. :

[The Jackal]

, too

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

I was not happy when Hannibal decided to support me on day 1......though I truly thought my play wasn't all as shocking as it seemed to everyone else.

Chief did a hell of a job staying in the game and off the radar for the most part.....of course I was in the crosshairs all game and the rolls just kept going my way so that ended up helping out the wolves, IMO.

Anyway, thanks to Pass for running the game, I'm sorry I didn't put as much into it as it deserved. See you guys in awhile.

It is not a done deal in my mind when someone supports someone else on day 1 that it must mean they are bad.. but that type of support usually drives me to ask the question Why? Since on day 1, only the wolves know anything about others, why would a villager go out of his way to support someone he supposedly knows nothing about.

I think on day 1, I wasn't as convinced about it as I was in day 2 (when I had said I was going to likely look at voting Hannibal and started looking closely at each of his posts). It wasn't the fact he was supporting you as much as the reasons for it just didn't feel like villager reasons to me. Of course Render also made me feel the same way though, and I still don't understand why he backed you all like he did. As best I could tell he backed you all more because he didn't trust me or understand my argument very well. That is why I feel I just didn't do a very good job of explaining my case in the limited time that i had I guess.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think on day 1, I wasn't as convinced about it as I was in day 2 (when I had said I was going to likely look at voting Hannibal and started looking closely at each of his posts). It wasn't the fact he was supporting you as much as the reasons for it just didn't feel like villager reasons to me. Of course Render also made me feel the same way though, and I still don't understand why he backed you all like he did. As best I could tell he backed you all more because he didn't trust me or understand my argument very well. That is why I feel I just didn't do a very good job of explaining my case in the limited time that i had I guess.

Yeah, I was happy when we were able to convince RendeR. I knew I was in trouble with you early because once you get that bone in your teeth..........the only way to really argue with you in that situation is to play up the "Alan is not looking at the other possibilities" angle, which is not the type of angle I tend to enjoy playing.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

Yeah, I was happy when we were able to convince RendeR. I knew I was in trouble with you early because once you get that bone in your teeth..........the only way to really argue with you in that situation is to play up the "Alan is not looking at the other possibilities" angle, which is not the type of angle I tend to enjoy playing.

For what its worth you never convinced me of anything, what you did was frustrate Alan enough that his poists became more and more confrontational instead of his normally well thought through calm controlled type posts, that got my radar going on him which was to your benefit, but I suspected hannibal from the beginning and you also to some extent.

Chief should always be my day 1 vote. He never sets off my warning signals.

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

For what its worth you never convinced me of anything, what you did was frustrate Alan enough that his poists became more and more confrontational instead of his normally well thought through calm controlled type posts, that got my radar going on him which was to your benefit, but I suspected hannibal from the beginning and you also to some extent.

Fair enough -- got the result I wanted though and guess that's close enough for me!