135th Kentucky Derby

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Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

I almost always bet on Borel. Years ago he had one mount at calder. The pick 3's with the 1 to 5 favorite paid 202 and the second favorite borel paid 1219. There were three number 1 horses ( the favorite) that he beat. My uncle told me he didn't come there to ride one race just to lose it before the race started. He says alot stuff after the fact.

I only had twenty dollars bet on the race. It was a 5 dollar oaks double because Borel was on that horse also, with 4 horses. I threw Borel in there just for fun.

So wait a minute, let me make sure I'm reading this right. Did you have Mine That Bird in an Oaks double? Nice! What did that pay?

[Khorium]

Originally Posted by billethius

There's no conspiracy because the owners would never go along with it. Winning the Kentucky Derby is worth something in the range of ~$50m to an owner, so if they were told that Mullins would never be allowed to run the horse in the Derby, they'd just switch trainers.

Furthermore, the owners announced that IWR's best case is returning in the fall for the Breeder's Cup, but that it's more likely that he'll be out until 2010. That's a lot of money for them to intentionally skip out on just for the 'good of the sport' or whatever.

I'm not sure you're getting my "tinfoil hat" theory.

My suspicion is that either Mine That Bird was tested positive, or Mullins was caught with a syringe around the barn, with something he shouldn't have had. I suspect this happened the day before, or even the morning of, the Derby.

Track stewards would normally disqualify the animal and slap the trainer with a ban. Switching trainers at that point isn't an option. My theory is that the stewards got together with the owner, trainer, and Derby officials and said "This will look REALLY bad. Scratch your horse, and avoid a suspension, or we go ahead and ban you and disqualify the horse." Mullins would take the deal because a ban at Churchill right before the Derby would probably put him out of business at just about every track in America for the rest of the year. The owners would take it because if Mine That Bird is doped up, nothing he's done means anything, and the animal's value goes down as a result. They're not running in the Derby either way, so better to scratch and race later than put a stain on the horse. Churchill Downs and the NTRA get to avoid another embarassment that would make Eight Belles and Barbaro look like a picnic.

/tinfoilhat

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The problem with most (read: all) conspiracy theories is that the sheer number of people needed to keep quiet for them to work becomes harder to swallow than the original theory.

This would be my opinion of this one as well. There are too many people who would be willing to toss Mullins under the bus in order to gain his horses for this scenario to be plausible.

Now Roswell on the other hand.......

[billethius]

Originally Posted by Khorium

I'm not sure you're getting my "tinfoil hat" theory.

My suspicion is that either Mine That Bird was tested positive, or Mullins was caught with a syringe around the barn, with something he shouldn't have had. I suspect this happened the day before, or even the morning of, the Derby.

Track stewards would normally disqualify the animal and slap the trainer with a ban. Switching trainers at that point isn't an option. My theory is that the stewards got together with the owner, trainer, and Derby officials and said "This will look REALLY bad. Scratch your horse, and avoid a suspension, or we go ahead and ban you and disqualify the horse." Mullins would take the deal because a ban at Churchill right before the Derby would probably put him out of business at just about every track in America for the rest of the year. The owners would take it because if Mine That Bird is doped up, nothing he's done means anything, and the animal's value goes down as a result. They're not running in the Derby either way, so better to scratch and race later than put a stain on the horse. Churchill Downs and the NTRA get to avoid another embarassment that would make Eight Belles and Barbaro look like a picnic.

/tinfoilhat

Sure - I get that. But after sitting out the Derby, there's no reason to also skip everything else this summer and trying to train up to the Breeder's Cup or sit out the entire year.