WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[hoopsguy]

I would suggest looking hard at both the D1 and D2 votes, since we have near complete information in terms of analysis - the three main candidates in those votes (NTN, PB, EF) are all dead and factions revealed.

There is not as much to work with for D3 just yet, but don't discount D1 completely when looking at D2. This is not only for my benefit, but also potentially that of other players who are on the wrong side of a D2 vote that may have done better on the D1 vote.

[Danny]

Not enough action, I'm bringing PurdueBrad back to life!

[hoopsguy]

I'm all for bringing villagers back to life.

Seriously, the conversation has been a little sluggish today and I would love to see it get going again. We should have a pretty lively discussion about where to go today.

One thing that has fallen completely off the radar - the "no kill" on Night 1. I'm thinking that the more time that passes without an explanation, the more likely it is that this was not good for the villagers. I had hoped we had a BG block (still might, but with no reveal of info either way) or some power that blocked the night kill wolf from acting. But if someone had an action that prevented a wolf from initiating the kill I think it would have come up by now. So at some point, I think we have to assume conversion.

The only reason I'm not there already is that N1 is a lousy time to convert someone. You get no benefit from potential seer scans working for you later in the game in terms of trust lists.

[DaddyTorgo]

maybe the wolves blew it and forgot to submit an action?

[claphamsa]

ha

[DaddyTorgo]

idk - i'm with you in that i don't see the value of a N1 conversion.
I think we assume it was a BG-block (maybe with no info revealed as to who was blocked?) until such a time as we have evidence otherwise.

[Passacaglia]

Maybe the conversion only happens if they attack a certain player, and they just got lucky N1? I dunno. I hate conversions, so I'd rather not think about it and assume it's not in the game unless mentioned.

[claphamsa]

There is alaways value in any conversion, just not as much night 1 vs night 5.

[Telle]

If it was a Night 1 conversion, then the only thing to really be concerned about is an additional wolf, right? It's not like when you're in the middle of a game and a conversion happens to somebody on the trusted list. So I really don't think it's worth worrying about either way. Yeah it may affect some math, but that's about it.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Maybe the conversion only happens if they attack a certain player, and they just got lucky N1? I dunno. I hate conversions, so I'd rather not think about it and assume it's not in the game unless mentioned.

This would be my thought as well.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

maybe the wolves blew it and forgot to submit an action?

didn't you mess up the deadline time N1 and not vote?

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Maybe the conversion only happens if they attack a certain player, and they just got lucky N1? I dunno. I hate conversions, so I'd rather not think about it and assume it's not in the game unless mentioned.

That or a block and the BG just hasn't spoke up. I'm guessing like last game that the BG doesn't know who he blocked...just that he did. Therefore it would be senseless to say, "Hey, I'm the BG and performed a block on ... someone.

The only reason it worked out well for me last game was because I felt compelled to reveal (thanks a lot you magnifcent bastage, Pass). Follow that with a successful block, there really was no reason for me to keep that information to myself.

Son of a gun, I think I just talked my way into figuring out who the BG *may* be.

[Danny]

While I enjoy the analysis, I will clear this up. There are no conversions in this game.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Telle

If it was a Night 1 conversion, then the only thing to really be concerned about is an additional wolf, right? It's not like when you're in the middle of a game and a conversion happens to somebody on the trusted list. So I really don't think it's worth worrying about either way. Yeah it may affect some math, but that's about it.

If it was a conversion, we're certainly hating life. 12/4 without a sympathizer...but it's more like 11/5. A conversion puts us at 10/6.

Good odds for us to find one of them. Good odds for them to finish off this game, though.

I really hope it wasn't a conversion. I really hope there isn't a conversion possibility. 7 wolves (including sympathizer) out of 21? That's borderline retarded.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Danny

While I enjoy the analysis, I will clear this up. There are no conversions in this game.

Whew. All I had to do is throw out the "retarded" word.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

While I enjoy the analysis, I will clear this up. There are no conversions in this game.

Perfect - so there seems to have been some kind of profitable N1 event for us that has not made its way into the analysis yet.

[Poli]

Hoops, I don't have much analysis to give outside of what I've already shared. I'm not much of a mudslinger, no offense to you. I never have been. Sure, I've been all over someone's cheese in the past...right and wrong.

I think Pass's game last time was a mudslinger type...trying to fling it on Render and me. I got frustrated to the point where I revealed...which was both good and bad. I don't confuse you with Pass, he's much better looking (posted because Danny told me I had to say that), but I feel that you're doing the same thing. You don't put on near the amount of pressure, I'll give you that, thankfully.

Truth is, I think between Telle, Jackal, and well, you I think there is a wolf or two.

There is one other person in the game that I can't get a read on, but he's someone I always have problems reading anyhow.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Perfect - so there seems to have been some kind of profitable N1 event for us that has not made its way into the analysis yet.

Yup.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Poli

Son of a gun, I think I just talked my way into figuring out who the BG *may* be.

I think I also figured it out

[Poli]

I have more maintenance to do, back in about an hour.

[Autumn]

Is Poli the only vote so far?

I'm going between Telle and Lerriuqs at this point. Since we have one on Telle, I think, I'll introduce a second canddiate and hopefully scare Lerriuqs out of the wood work.

vote lerriuqs

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think I also figured it out

I didn't.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Is Poli the only vote so far?

I'm going between Telle and Lerriuqs at this point. Since we have one on Telle, I think, I'll introduce a second canddiate and hopefully scare Lerriuqs out of the wood work.

vote lerriuqs

common sense and the lists of those posted indicates that we should prolly make it between telle and jackal i thought?

i have yet to do my analysis - it'll prolly have to wait till my 1pm lunchtime

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

didn't you mess up the deadline time N1 and not vote?

yep

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Is Poli the only vote so far?

I'm going between Telle and Lerriuqs at this point. Since we have one on Telle, I think, I'll introduce a second canddiate and hopefully scare Lerriuqs out of the wood work.

vote lerriuqs

I was going to go with Lerriuqs, because I think it's time to start looking at the under-the-radar guys. But I'm not sure his voting record warrants it, from my perspective. On Day 1 he voted early and didn't come back to the game.. so it was your typical random Day 1 vote. On Day 2 he voted the same way I did, so I can't fault him there. And then on Day 3 he voted how I wanted to vote (had to vote in self-defense instead), so I can't fault him on that either. Then again, I was wrong about my Day 2 vote, so so was he. So basically, I just don't see him jumping out as being bad.. although that doesn't mean he's anywhere near being cleared either.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

common sense and the lists of those posted indicates that we should prolly make it between telle and jackal i thought?

i have yet to do my analysis - it'll prolly have to wait till my 1pm lunchtime

WEll, my list was Telle, Jackal and Lerriuqs. I'd like at least two of these to get significant votes today. I posted earlier that I think Jackal may be an independent, but count as a villager, so I'm going to focus on the other two.

[Lathum]

I'm not a fan of Autumns voting record or his trust list, or his explination for why I'm not on it.

[Danny]

GAME EVENT - The Happy Birthday Poli!!!!!!!!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I didn't.

me either, but thats not a surprie

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm not a fan of Autumns voting record or his trust list, or his explination for why I'm not on it.

His Day 2 vote was pretty good, helping create the PB/EF race early in the day after you started the voting on PB and others (including me) followed your lead.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm always the last to figure out those subtle clues...just an FYI for anyone ever trying to leave me a breadcrumb - I'm dense...I'll miss it 99 times out of 100.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Telle

I was going to go with Lerriuqs, because I think it's time to start looking at the under-the-radar guys. But I'm not sure his voting record warrants it, from my perspective. On Day 1 he voted early and didn't come back to the game.. so it was your typical random Day 1 vote. On Day 2 he voted the same way I did, so I can't fault him there. And then on Day 3 he voted how I wanted to vote (had to vote in self-defense instead), so I can't fault him on that either. Then again, I was wrong about my Day 2 vote, so so was he. So basically, I just don't see him jumping out as being bad.. although that doesn't mean he's anywhere near being cleared either.

Telle, so who do you see jumping out as bad? And what metric are you using beyond voting records to help guide you towards a vote?

Part of the reason that people are on both you and Lerriuqs is because you have "bad" voting records. So you saying that he doesn't look bad to you because he voted the way you wanted to - when you don't exactly have a stellar voting record - is a curious semi-defense.

The voting records are what they are; you can't change them at this point. I'm not asking for any kind of an apology for how you voted or anything of the sort. But if looking at votes is not your primary tool for looking at people right now, then what is?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

His Day 2 vote was pretty good, helping create the PB/EF race early in the day after you started the voting on PB and others (including me) followed your lead.

really?

Looks to me like his vote was the second one on EF, thats pretty early.

And you say followed my lead as if I led some kind of charge, which I clearly didn't do. In fact, I was very persistant in saying I don't want people to follow me.

I really don't like the picture you are tying to paint here. There's something about you this game that smells funny.

[DaddyTorgo]

i could see myself easily voting for hoops today.

then again it's also d4 and lathum is still alive...

[Telle]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Telle, so who do you see jumping out as bad? And what metric are you using beyond voting records to help guide you towards a vote?

Part of the reason that people are on both you and Lerriuqs is because you have "bad" voting records. So you saying that he doesn't look bad to you because he voted the way you wanted to - when you don't exactly have a stellar voting record - is a curious semi-defense.

The voting records are what they are; you can't change them at this point. I'm not asking for any kind of an apology for how you voted or anything of the sort. But if looking at votes is not your primary tool for looking at people right now, then what is?

Well I'm trying to look at things that don't necessarily align with my voting record.. since I think it's a little hypocritical to go "Oh look at his awful voting record!" when it's similar to mine. Although I fully realize that I'll probably eventually have to go that way.

One thing I'm taking a look at is Day 2. There were three people who didn't vote for one of the main two contenders. Barkeep is dead and has already been shown to be good. That leaves saldana and clap. Yesterday saldana got a lot of heat but then seems to have fallen by the wayside today for not appearant reason. The clap doesn't seem to be on anybody's trusted nor distrusted lists.. so he's just kind of floating around in the middle, which is a great place for a wolf to hide. On Day 1 clap also had an outlier vote, and on Day 3 he voted for me right off when it was obvious that I had been getting a lot of heat.. so that's an easy vote to make.

So, that's my thoughts on some other voting options. That said, I have the feeling that today may be another self-defense vote for me.

[DaddyTorgo]

could this be hoops+lathum playing us and trying to work up some animosity in-thread while wolving it up behind the scenes and then they're both going to end up backing off each other before any votes get thrown down?

care to put your money where your mouth is lathum?

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i could see myself easily voting for hoops today.

then again it's also d4 and lathum is still alive...

Then vote me. Just don't forget like you did day 1. Did you also forget to submit the night order?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I guess good to have you added to the list that are suspicious of my play so far

Seriously, in terms of trust over the course of the first few days I have Autumn pretty high on the list. I think I've been pretty consistent with this with the trust lists that I've published - he has always been one of the top four guys.

You voted for PB right away on Day 2 and never moved the vote, despite posting multiple times in the thread that you thought EF was a good candidate. I'm pretty sure that you cannot dispute this point.

Is it logical for others to have followed your lead on the vote on Day 2, thinking that you might be playing it somewhat cagily at that point as a seer? Gee, I think so since that is how I responded. No matter what kind of denials you posted in the thread, I figured you were just trying to avoid wolf attention later in the game after busting one of their number.

Now, clearly that was not the case. So at this point I'm of the opinion that you probably have your own set of reasons for voting for PB that day and never moving it. The idea of separate win conditions seems to resonate for me at this point. Which is why I've been listing you as neutral since Friday on my trust lists. I think there are better candidates out there than you to pursue for a lynch, but I'm not sure how much to trust your analysis because I'm not 100% sure that we have the same goals for the outcome of the game.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

could this be hoops+lathum playing us and trying to work up some animosity in-thread while wolving it up behind the scenes and then they're both going to end up backing off each other before any votes get thrown down?

care to put your money where your mouth is lathum?

VOTE HOOPSGUY

umm, I can't. Remember, you criticized me.

OK, I think DT is bad. There are a number of things in this post that scream at me.

1. Saw a chance to get hoops in the forefront and took it.
2. Tried to get me to vote, makes it look like he didn't know I can't, whereas a wolf would for sure know I can't
3. If hoops goes down then he can try to move to me since you know, it's day 4 and I'm still alive.
4. Hoops and I really haven't gone back and forth much at all, and far less then either of us are capable of doing.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

could this be hoops+lathum playing us and trying to work up some animosity in-thread while wolving it up behind the scenes and then they're both going to end up backing off each other before any votes get thrown down?

care to put your money where your mouth is lathum?

VOTE HOOPSGUY

Honestly, do you really think that I'm the best option for a vote today? Is this some desire to be "right" in the face of long odds, kind of like the people who lose money chasing 50-1 shots every Kentucky Derby so they can be right just that one time on "Mine that Bird"?

Only they end up voting the wrong 50-1 that day as well, so not only are they suckers, but they find themselves lamenting their bad luck after the fact?

Seriously, the voting records suggest that there are at least a half dozen people who are more likely to be wolves than I am this game. All you are doing with a vote like this is generating more scrutiny from me right now and a whole heck of a lot more for yourself later in the game if you actually succeed in getting my lynched.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, I guess good to have you added to the list that are suspicious of my play so far

I'm suspicious of the fact you made it seem like I was the pied piper leading the charge.

I think it's obvious that because of the mechanics of this game I couldn't say to much and I did everything I could to give some sort of explination.

[Lathum]

VOTE MINE THAT BIRD

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

umm, I can't. Remember, you criticized me.

OK, I think DT is bad. There are a number of things in this post that scream at me.

1. Saw a chance to get hoops in the forefront and took it.
2. Tried to get me to vote, makes it look like he didn't know I can't, whereas a wolf would for sure know I can't
3. If hoops goes down then he can try to move to me since you know, it's day 4 and I'm still alive.
4. Hoops and I really haven't gone back and forth much at all, and far less then either of us are capable of doing.

Don't forget that he piled on PB day 2 (second vote on him) when it looked like you were coming out as seer. Then he bailed pretty quickly, moving over to EF and trying to suggest that he was the primary mover and shaker in that vote.

There are enough people out there who have done nothing in terms of voting for a wolf this game that he is not my #1 choice. But his play this game has creeped me out the whole time and if I was Alan T and playing on gut I would put my vote here right now and not even bother checking back in the thread for the rest of the day.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Don't forget that he piled on PB day 2 (second vote on him) when it looked like you were coming out as seer. Then he bailed pretty quickly, moving over to EF and trying to suggest that he was the primary mover and shaker in that vote.

There are enough people out there who have done nothing in terms of voting for a wolf this game that he is not my #1 choice. But his play this game has creeped me out the whole time and if I was Alan T and playing on gut I would put my vote here right now and not even bother checking back in the thread for the rest of the day.

Do it for Me!!!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm suspicious of the fact you made it seem like I was the pied piper leading the charge.

I think it's obvious that because of the mechanics of this game I couldn't say to much and I did everything I could to give some sort of explination.

For better or worse, your early vote led to a number of people following and PB being one of the two main people in the vote that day. You can't say what the reasons were, and I get that.

For better or worse, I followed your lead that day and did not switch. I can comment fully on that vote and I have. So far this game, I have not been restricted by my role in any way, shape, or form when it comes to posting in the thread.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Do it for Me!!!

Does this mean that you like DT as a wolf more than The Jackal at this point? Because earlier you said that you would vote for The Jackal if you had not been squelched today.

[claphamsa]

this is great back and forth

[Autumn]

Lathum, to respond to your comments, I think the best thing in my favor is my day 2 activity. If you go back and read you'll see that I was a force behind getting votes on EagleFan all day, and I think very early revealed what was going on, with the criticism cover for getting heat off of EF and onto PB. While a single vote doesn't mean too too much, if you read back I think you'll see I was the major voice in making a case for EF which would be outrageously stupid for a wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

umm, I can't. Remember, you criticized me.

OK, I think DT is bad. There are a number of things in this post that scream at me.

1. Saw a chance to get hoops in the forefront and took it.
2. Tried to get me to vote, makes it look like he didn't know I can't, whereas a wolf would for sure know I can't
3. If hoops goes down then he can try to move to me since you know, it's day 4 and I'm still alive.
4. Hoops and I really haven't gone back and forth much at all, and far less then either of us are capable of doing.

i criticized you? like i said - i didn't really follow what went on over the weekend...i didn't criticize anyone. Didn't realize you were critcized either.

I am a villager. I have a small role, but it's not very integral to the sucess of the village, so if you want to lynch me, go ahead.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Does this mean that you like DT as a wolf more than The Jackal at this point? Because earlier you said that you would vote for The Jackal if you had not been squelched today.

I think I may actually like DT as a better candidate. I mean, lets face it, there was probably at least one wolf on EF at some point.