'Creepers'

imdashep · 10-25-2010, 04:44 PM

Curious if there are any anecdotes on guys who gain a ton of points from their original drafted rating. Trying to figure out how high of a climb one of my players will make.

Drafted: 30/46
Post TC 1: 40/58
Pre-TC2: 59/59
Post TC2: 63/63
Now: 70/70 (week 4 of year 2)

One interesting aspect is that he had 0/17 in play diag which NEVER got better. All of the other ratings though have gone up.

bighouserulez · 10-25-2010, 06:02 PM

The old chart used to be 4*(future TC growth) would be what your guy would max out around.

That has not been true since the last two patches though.

aston217 · 10-25-2010, 06:24 PM

A bump that big could be a volatility thing...also, play diag probably was always 0 to begin with.

It seems that with 6.3 and 6.4, big jumps and falls in training camps are both less indicative of where they'll end up than before. To be fair I have a small/limited range sample size, so who knows. Makes it harder to be excited about the 17/25 guy who goes +8, though.

bulletsponge · 10-25-2010, 07:39 PM

that guy looks a lot like a WR i drafted.

aston217 · 10-25-2010, 07:58 PM

On a related note, I noticed in a SP game that it SEEMS that players who hold out through training camp, still get the TC bump/fall.

I always sign my rookies in the SP test I'm doing, so this is really based on a sample size of one CPU QB I was looking at. But, he went from 14/46 to 14/50 after TC, without being signed. I'm not sure what else it could be, other than some unmasking going on. At his second year's start he is 22/52, so it looks like he is indeed climbing.

I had always thought that if you didn't go through TC, you wouldn't be able to see if the rookies had a bump or not. Maybe I was just unaware of what everyone else knew already, but it looks like regardless of TC (so, including holdout rookies and unsigned rookie free agents), you can tell who is a creeper and who isn't.

imdashep · 10-25-2010, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bighouserulez

The old chart used to be 4*(future TC growth) would be what your guy would max out around.

That has not been true since the last two patches though.

So he ends up at 94?

Sweet

Rando · 10-26-2010, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdashep

So he ends up at 94?

Sweet

He'll probably end up somewhere in the mid to high 70's.

Here is the thread the rule of thumb comes from.

4*initial camp change if the change is 3-8 points. If more than 8, just use 8. Which would put him at 78.

For some examples my last three players with initial camp changes of more than 8 ended up +28 (+16 initial), +32 (+18 initial) and +30 (+15 initial).

As mentioned above, it doesn't work exactly to formula (notice Ben says "on AVERAGE"). Looking through my OSFL roster for fully developed players for initial changes between 3-8 points I see a +8 (+3 initial), +17 (+7 initial), +19 (+6 initial), +12 (+4 initial), and a -19 (-6 initial).

It might not be perfect, but it is still a safe bet that if a guy has a good first camp (+3 or more) you might want to keep him around, but if he as a bad one (-3 or more) he's going to be a disappointment. Barring a later volatility boom/bust, of course.

Ben E Lou · 10-27-2010, 08:13 AM

Well, and that guy was clearly VSOL, so the formula doesn't apply at all there.

Surtt · 10-27-2010, 04:16 PM

VSOL?

Ben E Lou · 10-27-2010, 04:18 PM

Volatility Stick Of Life

imdashep · 10-30-2010, 02:52 PM

Only 46 in that category, but who knows..

aston217 · 10-30-2010, 02:54 PM

Volatility hits can happen to anyone, of course...it's just more unlikely for a 46 guy than a 99 guy.

10-25-2010, 06:02 PM	#2
bighouserulez H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Michigan	The old chart used to be 4*(future TC growth) would be what your guy would max out around. That has not been true since the last two patches though. __________________ Are you looking for a different MP league? TFL is a league that uses historical rosters and adds in other sport athletes and famous figures from a certain era http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/tfl/ben/index.php GML is a league that is you as a GM and a GM only http://www.fof-gml.com/forum/register.php?do=addmember vNFL and House have the forum that shares knowledge and asks for players to constantly challenge thinking in fof. http://www.bearsruletheworld.com/vnfl/

10-25-2010, 06:24 PM	#3
aston217 College Prospect Join Date: Sep 2010	A bump that big could be a volatility thing...also, play diag probably was always 0 to begin with. It seems that with 6.3 and 6.4, big jumps and falls in training camps are both less indicative of where they'll end up than before. To be fair I have a small/limited range sample size, so who knows. Makes it harder to be excited about the 17/25 guy who goes +8, though. __________________ OSFL (join us!) CFL Float likeabutterflysting likeabee. Last edited by aston217 : 10-25-2010 at 06:26 PM.

10-25-2010, 07:58 PM	#5
aston217 College Prospect Join Date: Sep 2010	On a related note, I noticed in a SP game that it SEEMS that players who hold out through training camp, still get the TC bump/fall. I always sign my rookies in the SP test I'm doing, so this is really based on a sample size of one CPU QB I was looking at. But, he went from 14/46 to 14/50 after TC, without being signed. I'm not sure what else it could be, other than some unmasking going on. At his second year's start he is 22/52, so it looks like he is indeed climbing. I had always thought that if you didn't go through TC, you wouldn't be able to see if the rookies had a bump or not. Maybe I was just unaware of what everyone else knew already, but it looks like regardless of TC (so, including holdout rookies and unsigned rookie free agents), you can tell who is a creeper and who isn't. __________________ OSFL (join us!) CFL Float likeabutterflysting likeabee. Last edited by aston217 : 10-25-2010 at 07:59 PM.

10-27-2010, 08:13 AM	#8
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Well, and that guy was clearly VSOL, so the formula doesn't apply at all there. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

10-27-2010, 04:16 PM	#9
Surtt College Benchwarmer Join Date: Nov 2003	VSOL? __________________ “The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.” United States Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis

10-25-2010, 07:39 PM	#4
bulletsponge Pro Starter Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: TX	that guy looks a lot like a WR i drafted.

10-27-2010, 04:18 PM	#10
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Volatility Stick Of Life __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

10-30-2010, 02:52 PM	#11
imdashep Mascot Join Date: Jan 2002	Only 46 in that category, but who knows..

10-30-2010, 02:54 PM	#12
aston217 College Prospect Join Date: Sep 2010	Volatility hits can happen to anyone, of course...it's just more unlikely for a 46 guy than a 99 guy. __________________ OSFL (join us!) CFL Float likeabutterflysting likeabee.

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