cartman's FOFC College Football Top 25, Week 4 open for voting

[cartman]

Another weekend of the games has completed. Time to open up this week's poll for voting. Submissions are due by kickoff of the South Florida-Pitt game on Thursday, Sept. 29th. Here's how last week's poll fared:

Team			Rec.	Weekend Result
1. Oklahoma 		3-0	beat Missouri 38-28
T2. LSU 		4-0	beat #13 West Virginia 47-21
T2. Alabama 		4-0	beat #15 Arkansas 38-14
4. Oklahoma State 	4-0	beat #8 Texas A&M 30-29
5. Wisconsin		4-0	beat South Dakota 59-10
6. Stanford		3-0	Bye
7. Boise State		3-0	beat Tulsa 41-21
8. Texas A&M		2-1	lost to #4 Oklahoma State 30-29
9. South Carolina	4-0	beat Vanderbilt 21-3
10. Nebraska		4-0	beat Wyoming 38-14
11. Virginia Tech	4-0	beat Marshall 30-10
12. Oregon		3-1	brat Arizona 56-31
13. West Virginia	3-1	lost to #2 LSU 47-21
14. Florida State	2-2	lost to #23 Clemson 35-30
15. Arkansas		3-1	lost to #2 Alabama 38-14
16. Florida		4-0	beat Kentucky 48-10
17. Michigan 		4-0	beat San Diego State 28-7
18. Texas		3-0	Bye
19. USC			3-1	lost to Arizona State 43-22
20. South Florida	4-0	beat UTEP 52-24
21. Baylor		3-0	beat Rice 56-31
22. TCU			3-1	beat Portland State 55-13
23. Clemson		4-0	beat #14 Florida State 35-30
T24. Georgia Tech	4-0	beat North Carolina 35-28
T24. Illinois		4-0	beat Western Michigan 23-20

For reference, here is last week's voting thread: cartman's FOFC Top 25 poll, Week 3 open for voting - Front Office Football Central

[britrock88]

1. Michigan
2. Texas A&M
3. Louisiana State
4. Alabama
5. Boise State
6. Notre Dame
7. Stanford
8. Oklahoma
9. Oklahoma State
10. South Carolina
11. Nebraska
12. Texas Christian
13. Georgia Tech
14. Tennessee
15. Florida
16. Wisconsin
17. Arizona State
18. Rutgers
19. South Florida
20. Illinois
21. Penn State
22. North Carolina
23. Clemson
24. Texas
25. Florida International

Bye-bye, non-AQs.

[Young Drachma]

Week 4 of the 2011 Omnivore Rankings

1 LSU
2 Oklahoma
3 Alabama
4 Oklahoma State
5 Clemson
6 South Carolina
7 Boise State
8 Nebraska
9 Stanford
10 South Florida
11 Baylor
12 Florida
13 Wisconsin
14 Washington
15 Michigan
16 Virginia Tech
17 Arizona State
18 Texas
19 TCU
20 Notre Dame
21 Iowa State
22 Kansas State
23 Illinois
24 Georgia Tech
25 Oregon

[JonInMiddleGA]

from Jon's Three Cents | Because two cents worth isn't always enough
1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. LSU
4. Stanford
5. Wisconsin
6. Boise State
7. Oklahoma State
8. Nebraksa
9. Oregon
10. Virginia Tech
11. South Carolina
12. Baylor
13. Texas A&M
14. Florida
15. Clemson
16. South Florida
17. Texas
18. Arkansas
19. West Virginia
20. Michigan
21. Florida State
22. Michigan State
23. TCU
24. Illinois
25. Iowa State

[Cuckoo]

1. Oklahoma (1)
2. Alabama (2)
3. LSU (4)
4. Stanford (3)
5. Oklahoma State (6)
6. Boise State (5)
7. Wisconsin (7)
8. Nebraska (8)
9. Oregon (9)
10. South Carolina (12)
11. Florida (14)
12. Virginia Tech (15)
13. Clemson (20)
14. Baylor (17)
15. Texas A&M (10)
16. TCU (18)
17. South Florida (21)
18. Georgia Tech (22)
19. Michigan (23)
20. Arkansas (13)
21. West Virginia (16)
22. Texas (24)
23. Michigan State (25)
24. Arizona State (NR)
25. Florida State (11)

With last week's ranking. Dropped out: USC

[Suicane75]

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. South Carolina
6. Boise State
7. Nebraska
8. Wisconsin
9. Michigan
10. Stanford
11. Oklahoma State
12. Florida
13. Oregon
14. Virginia Tech
15. Georgia Tech
16. Auburn
17. South Florida
18. Illinois
19. Texas
20. Baylor
21. West Virginia
22. TCU
23. Temple
24. Notre Dame
25. Houston

[SnDvls]

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Boise State
5. Stanford
6. Oregon
7. Oklahoma State
8. Wisconsin
9. Nebraska
10. South Carolina
11. Virginia Tech
12. Florida
13. Clemson
14. USF
15. Arizona State
16. Texas A&M
17. Baylor
18. Texas
19. Arkansas
20. Michigan
21. West Virginia
22. Houston
23. Illinois
24. TCU
25. Iowa State

[mauchow]

I think I just blew some snot bubbles. WIsconsin is going to drop from 5th to about 12th in this week's poll. Ouch.

[tarcone]

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Wisconsin
5. Boise St.
6. Stanford
7. Oklahoma St.
8. Nebraska
9. Clemson
10. South Carolina
11. Virginia Tech
12. Oregon
13. Baylor
14. Florida
15. Michigan
16. USF
17. Texas
18. Georgia Tech
19. Auburn
20. Texas A&M
21. Illinois
22. Arizona St.
23. West Virginia
24. Michigan St.
25. TCU

[cartman]

Top 25 from Solecismic's Football Frontier:

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma State
4. Michigan
5. Stanford
6. Oklahoma
7. South Carolina
8. Illinois
9. Nebraska
10. Boise State
11. South Florida
12. Virginia Tech
13. Texas A&M
14. Texas
15. Wisconsin
16. Georgia Tech
17. Baylor
18. Oregon
19. Clemson
20. Arizona State
21. Penn State
22. Kansas State
23. North Carolina
24. Notre Dame
25. West Virginia

[MacroGuru]

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Oklahoma State
5. Wisconsin
6. Boise State
7. Stanford
8. South Carolina
9. Nebraska
10. Florida
11.Virginia Tech
12. Oregon
13. Michigan
14. Texas
15. Texas A&M
16. Arkansas
17. Baylor
18. Texas
19. South Florida
20. Clemson
21. TCU
22. Illinois
23. Georgia Tech
24. West Virginia
25. Utah

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

1. Michigan
2. Texas A&M
3. Louisiana State
4. Alabama
5. Boise State
6. Notre Dame
7. Stanford
8. Oklahoma
9. Oklahoma State
10. South Carolina
11. Nebraska
12. Texas Christian
13. Georgia Tech
14. Tennessee
15. Florida
16. Wisconsin
17. Arizona State
18. Rutgers
19. South Florida
20. Illinois
21. Penn State
22. North Carolina
23. Clemson
24. Texas
25. Florida International

Bye-bye, non-AQs.

Michigan #1? Notre Dame at 6?



My list:
1) Oklahoma
2) LSU
3) Alabama
4) Oklahoma State
5) Boise State
6) Stanford
7) Wisconsin
8) Nebraska
9) South Carolina
10) Clemson
11) Florida
12) Virginia Tech
13) Oregon
14) South Florida
15) Texas A&M
16) Texas
17) Baylor
18) Georgia Tech
19) West Virginia
20) Michigan
21) Arkansas
22) Illinois
23) Arizona State
24) TCU
25) Iowa State

[cartman]

Bump for tonight's deadline. I'm going to be driving up to Fort Worth this evening, so look for the results to be posted tomorrow morning.

My Top 25:

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Boise State
5. Oklahoma State
6. Stanford
7. Wisconsin
8. South Carolina
9. Virginia Tech
10. Oregon
11. Nebraska
12. Florida
13. Clemson
14. South Florida
15. Texas
16. Baylor
17. Arkansas
18. Texas A&M
19. Michigan
20. Georgia Tech
21. West Virginia
22. Illinois
23. TCU
24. Michigan State
25. Florida State

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by britrock88

1. Michigan
2. Texas A&M
3. Louisiana State
4. Alabama
5. Boise State
6. Notre Dame
7. Stanford
8. Oklahoma
9. Oklahoma State
10. South Carolina
11. Nebraska
12. Texas Christian
13. Georgia Tech
14. Tennessee
15. Florida
16. Wisconsin
17. Arizona State
18. Rutgers
19. South Florida
20. Illinois
21. Penn State
22. North Carolina
23. Clemson
24. Texas
25. Florida International

Bye-bye, non-AQs.

What is this? I mean, your poll is your poll and that is fine, but I would love to hear why you ranked some of these teams where you did

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Michigan #1? Notre Dame at 6?

My ranking is: average MOV (3 < MOV < 17) + opponents' average MOV (3 < MOV < 17). Michigan is crushing people, and Notre Dame is hanging with good teams (as defined by MOV). It's not something I expect to hold through November, but it's an appropriate results-based ranking, which I think is as valid as a subjective prediction-based ranking.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

My ranking is: average MOV (3 < MOV < 17) + opponents' average MOV (3 < MOV < 17). Michigan is crushing people, and Notre Dame is hanging with good teams (as defined by MOV). It's not something I expect to hold through November, but it's an appropriate results-based ranking, which I think is as valid as a subjective prediction-based ranking.

So you only consider MOV? Not the quality of competition? Michigan beating Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, and San Diego State equals a team beating tougher, BCS-level teams?

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

So you only consider MOV? Not the quality of competition? Michigan beating Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, and San Diego State equals a team beating tougher, BCS-level teams?

I consider the quality of competition by including opponents' MOV as half of the ranking formula. As Pythagorean record estimators use runs to predict win percentages, so too can including opponents' MOV operate as an analog to the strength of those opponents.

Regardless of how this ranking looks now, conference play will go a long way toward appropriately stratifying better/worse teams and teams in better/worse conferences. Michigan's MOV will go down, though its SOS (as measured by the MOVs of its mostly good Big Ten opponents) will increase in turn, and I imagine the Wolverines will settle to within arm's length of the consensus ranking of subjective pollsters.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I consider the quality of competition by including opponents' MOV as half of the ranking formula. As Pythagorean record estimators use runs to predict win percentages, so too can including opponents' MOV operate as an analog to the strength of those opponents.

Regardless of how this ranking looks now, conference play will go a long way toward appropriately stratifying better/worse teams and teams in better/worse conferences. Michigan's MOV will go down, though its SOS (as measured by the MOVs of its mostly good Big Ten opponents) will increase in turn, and I imagine the Wolverines will settle to within arm's length of the consensus ranking of subjective pollsters.

Notre Dame that high in your polls REGARDLESS of your formula, is wacky. I wouldn't endorse that formula in any way shape or form.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by britrock88

My ranking is: average MOV (3 < MOV < 17) + opponents' average MOV (3 < MOV < 17). Michigan is crushing people, and Notre Dame is hanging with good teams (as defined by MOV). It's not something I expect to hold through November, but it's an appropriate results-based ranking, which I think is as valid as a subjective prediction-based ranking.

I think one beef is limiting the MOV within 17 points if I'm reading this right. Case in point, LSU beating Oregon and then you see Oregon put up scores of 69-20, 56-7, and 56-31. LSU even beat WVU by 26 and that's getting trimmed off.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Notre Dame that high in your polls REGARDLESS of your formula, is wacky. I wouldn't endorse that formula in any way shape or form.

Things will sort out in conference play, believe you me. Right now, the Domers are getting credit for playing South Florida and Michigan tight, both of whom were undefeated as of Thursday afternoon and rolling over average competition; for stomping Michigan State, a quality team; and for beating Pittsburgh, who is also decent. SOS is what is holding Notre Dame up at this point, but as BCS schools start playing each other, Notre Dame's advantage in that category will disappear and they will recede to the pack.

Originally Posted by Matthean

I think one beef is limiting the MOV within 17 points if I'm reading this right. Case in point, LSU beating Oregon and then you see Oregon put up scores of 69-20, 56-7, and 56-31. LSU even beat WVU by 26 and that's getting trimmed off.

You raise a good point. When relying completely on MOV to devise a ranking formula, it's impossible to avoid the question of the point at which MOV is not helpful in separating teams. Capping MOV at 16 points is my way of implementing that idea, since I think it's less helpful (and more statistically noisy) to know that Oregon beats Wossamatta U by 3, 4, 5, or 6 scores than that they beat them by at least 2 full scores and leaving it at that. Reasonable minds will differ on this count, to be sure.

To assuage people who think this ranking will stay crazy all season, here are the final 2010 rankings of a very similar ranking method:

2010 Expanded Standings | College Football at Sports-Reference.com