CFP Scenario (11.24 Ranking)

[Comey]

The rankings are out.

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
5. Michigan State
6. Notre Dame
7. Baylor
8. Stanford

For all intents and purposes, this is all that matters here.

Here is the scenario #1:

Clemson wins out, wins the ACC
Alabama wins out, wins the SEC
OU wins out, wins the Big XII.
Iowa wins out, wins the Big Ten.
Notre Dame wins out.

Which four do you take?

Scenario 2:

Clemson, Alabama, OU, Iowa win out. Stanford wins out, beating ND in the process.

Who do you take?

[bob]

Originally Posted by Comey

The rankings are out.

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
5. Michigan State
6. Notre Dame
7. Baylor
8. Stanford

For all intents and purposes, this is all that matters here.

Here is the scenario #1:

Clemson wins out, wins the ACC
Alabama wins out, wins the SEC
OU wins out, wins the Big XII.
Iowa wins out, wins the Big Ten.
Notre Dame wins out.

Which four do you take?

Scenario 2:

Clemson, Alabama, OU, Iowa win out. Stanford wins out, beating ND in the process.

Who do you take?

How did OU jump that much for winning when the other team could have easily just gone to overtime by kicking the extra point. Seems odd to me. Especially given TCU missing their best 2 players on offense.

Their loss is also terrible.

[Butter]

Not Notre Dame.

[bob]

Agreed not Notre Dame. I just think Oklahoma is getting too much credit for beating Baylor and TCU without their QB.

But maybe there just isnt another choice.

[tarcone]

This season has been one of my favorite seasons ever. It ranks up there with 1981 and 1985.

[tarcone]

And these ranking guarantee the B1G is in the playoffs. Unless they both lose this weekend.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Comey

The rankings are out.

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
5. Michigan State
6. Notre Dame
7. Baylor
8. Stanford

For all intents and purposes, this is all that matters here.

Here is the scenario #1:

Clemson wins out, wins the ACC
Alabama wins out, wins the SEC
OU wins out, wins the Big XII.
Iowa wins out, wins the Big Ten.
Notre Dame wins out.

Which four do you take?

Scenario 2:

Clemson, Alabama, OU, Iowa win out. Stanford wins out, beating ND in the process.

Who do you take?

Scenario 1: I can't answer yet, have to see how Iowa & Notre Dame look in in the process of winning out. And I probably want to know whether OU has a healthy starting QB or not.

Scenario 2: You didn't tell me what OU did. If they won I'm taking then over Stanford in that scenario.

[albionmoonlight]

Homer question here. If Clemson is #1, then why wouldn't a 1 loss UNC team that beats them in the ACC Championship be in the discussion?

[Butter]

Originally Posted by tarcone

And these ranking guarantee the B1G is in the playoffs. Unless they both lose this weekend.

Everyone thought the Big XII winner was in last year based on the rankings before championship weekend, then 59-0 happened. You never know.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Homer question here. If Clemson is #1, then why wouldn't a 1 loss UNC team that beats them in the ACC Championship be in the discussion?

I think they would be.
I think they'd land about 6 and miss out but I think they'd be in the discussion.

Then again it all depends on how they win, in that scenario.

[Suicane75]

Scenario #1: I'm already taking Notre Dame as their only loss would be on the road to the #1 team in the country in a tight game. Oklahoma got destroyed by Texas and hasn't blown me away otherwise.

Scenario #2: Can't take Stanford with 2 loses.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Scenario #1: I'm already taking Notre Dame as their only loss would be on the road to the #1 team in the country in a tight game. Oklahoma got destroyed by Texas and hasn't blown me away otherwise.

Scenario #2: Can't take Stanford with 2 loses.

I'm in this camp. The only reason why OK is there right now, if somebody doesn't want the conference "shafted" twice in a row.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

I'm in this camp. The only reason why OK is there right now, if somebody doesn't want the conference "shafted" twice in a row.

OK has 2 Top 25 wins.
Clemson is the only other team that can claim that, unless I am mistaken.

[cartman]

I think Michigan State has 3, if we are counting the ranking when they played the game.

[CU Tiger]

Coming back to correct my post that yep MSU has 3 also. Good call.

Bama is 0-1 against Top 20 and 1-1 against Top 25.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by cartman

I think Michigan State has 3, if we are counting the ranking when they played the game.

Why would anyone care about the ranking when they played the game, instead of current ranking?

Fwiw, ND would also have 2 top 25 wins under that metric, as Georgia Tech was ranked at the time ND beat them. And they have 2 wins vs current top 25 teams (Temple/Navy), as well as #27 & #32.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Coming back to correct my post that yep MSU has 3 also. Good call.

Bama is 0-1 against Top 20 and 1-1 against Top 25.

Cute metric there. Bama doesn't get credit for unbeaten LSU, an unbeaten Georgia, unbeaten TAMU but mich state does.

Let's try this one. Name the wins by michigan state over 8 wins teams and then do the same for bama. I'll even let you exclude LSU who would had 8 but their cupcake game was cancelled.

[digamma]

Not sure what the questions are, but it obviously seems set up so that if the top four win, they are in. Notre Dame isn't jumping an undefeated Iowa or a one loss Oklahoma who has beaten Baylor, Okie State and TCU in the last few weeks.

In my mind, Alabama would be the most vulnerable of the 1 loss teams, but that's not the committee's mind.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Cute metric there. Bama doesn't get credit for unbeaten LSU, an unbeaten Georgia, unbeaten TAMU

You forgot undefeated Wisconsin, unbeaten MTSU, and 1-loss ULM there.

Let's try this one. Name the wins by michigan state over 8 wins teams and then do the same for bama. I'll even let you exclude LSU who would had 8 but their cupcake game was cancelled.

Using your artificially picked baseline, Michigan State has 4 wins (over Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and Air Force). Alabama has 5 (over Wisconsin, Georgia, A&M, Mississippi State, Charleston Southern)... what point are you trying to prove? Because I think Alabama is better than MSU, but something that relies on counting Charleston Southern as a good win sure isn't the argument I'd use.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

You forgot undefeated Wisconsin, unbeaten MTSU, and 1-loss ULM there.

They were all top 25 teams at the time of the game? MTSU and ULM got a lot of respect early on that I must have missed./s That was the standard set up when he said 3 MSU wins against top 25 and then posted the Bama stat. Just asking why someone would use a standard that changes for teams

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Using your artificially picked baseline,

Not artificial as it is the same for both teams in comparison unlike the example I quoted.

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Michigan State has 4 wins (over Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and Air Force). Alabama has 5 (over Wisconsin, Georgia, A&M, Mississippi State, Charleston Southern)... what point are you trying to prove? Because I think Alabama is better than MSU, but something that relies on counting Charleston Southern as a good win sure isn't the argument I'd use.

And Ole Miss. so 6 to 4 and probably would have been 7 if LSU got to play the game against McNesse or (if they beat TAMU this week).

What metric should I be using to see this tough Michigan State schedule that I keep hearing about?

Western Michigan by 7?
Purdue by 3?
Rutgers by 7?
Nebraska by -1?

If Michigan State gets to the title game they get Iowa but Bama already knows it gets a 10 win Florida team also.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

If Michigan State gets to the title game they get Iowa but Bama already knows it gets a 10 win Florida team also.

A Florida team that barely beat FAU and Vanderbilt.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Homer question here. If Clemson is #1, then why wouldn't a 1 loss UNC team that beats them in the ACC Championship be in the discussion?

Woop woop!

[CU Tiger]

Its not my "cute" metric its the one thrown out by Jeff Long.

MSU has 3 wins over CURRENTLY ranked Top 25 teams and is 3-0 in such games.
Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon.

Bama has 1 Mississippi St and is 1-1 in such games (loss to Ole Miss)

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Homer question here. If Clemson is #1, then why wouldn't a 1 loss UNC team that beats them in the ACC Championship be in the discussion?

It gets them into the discussion but still well short of the top 4 in all likelihood. Zero wins over top 25 teams and 2 FCS opponents makes it tough to build an argument.

Didn't Ohio State cancel a game with them this year? That's killing them.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

They were all top 25 teams at the time of the game? MTSU and ULM got a lot of respect early on that I must have missed./s That was the standard set up when he said 3 MSU wins against top 25 and then posted the Bama stat. Just asking why someone would use a standard that changes for teams

No, as CUTiger points out MSU has 3 wins over current top 25 teams, Alabama has 1. I was pointing out the absurdity of talking about undefeated teams or rankings at the time. Or do you really want to argue that LSU's win over Auburn was a quality win AND LSU's win over Auburn was worth more than Alabama's potential win over Auburn because LSU happened to get them first before everyone realized just how overrated they are?

And Ole Miss. so 6 to 4 and probably would have been 7 if LSU got to play the game against McNesse or (if they beat TAMU this week).

Alabama lost to Ole Miss, so no they don't get credit for a win there.

I'm a Notre Dame fan. I think it's a joke that Oklahoma and Iowa jumped us, but have zero problem with Michigan State being ranked ahead of us.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Alabama lost to Ole Miss, so no they don't get credit for a win there.

Actually, they do.

See they lost to an SEC team. SEC teams are part of the hardest conference in America and play with SEC speed in front of SEC fan bases. As a result any win by an SEC team counts as a win for the entire conference. Hence Alabama losing to Ole miss actually counts as 2 wins for Ole miss and 1 win for Bama while no one takes a loss.

Side note the lead publisher of the SCar Rivals.com site posted a thread this morning that SC as clearly a favorite over Clemson since Clemson played a weak ACC schedule. Ok bad enough. He went on to say that SCar would win the ACC, Big 10 or Pac 12 this year but probably finish second in the Big 12.

Unfortunately it had to be pointed out to him that Scar would also finish second in the Southern Conference given their loss last week to The Citadel.

I mean it wont shock me if SC beats Clemson this week, rivalry game, throw the records out the window and all that jazz....but to seriously write that dribble was...shameful.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Actually, they do.

See they lost to an SEC team. SEC teams are part of the hardest conference in America and play with SEC speed in front of SEC fan bases. As a result any win by an SEC team counts as a win for the entire conference. Hence Alabama losing to Ole miss actually counts as 2 wins for Ole miss and 1 win for Bama while no one takes a loss.

Side note the lead publisher of the SCar Rivals.com site posted a thread this morning that SC as clearly a favorite over Clemson since Clemson played a weak ACC schedule. Ok bad enough. He went on to say that SCar would win the ACC, Big 10 or Pac 12 this year but probably finish second in the Big 12.

Unfortunately it had to be pointed out to him that Scar would also finish second in the Southern Conference given their loss last week to The Citadel.

I mean it wont shock me if SC beats Clemson this week, rivalry game, throw the records out the window and all that jazz....but to seriously write that dribble was...shameful.

This is actually on year I don't see a large SEC bias (although I'm sure you see a lot more based on where you live). A 1-loss SEC blue blood is sitting at #12 and there are only 4 SEC teams in the CFP top 25, compared to 7 in the current Sagarin computer rankings.

The Big 12 is actually the one benefiting from perception vs reality this week. TCU has more 1-score wins vs under .500 teams (Minnesota, KSU, Kansas) than they do wins vs. teams above .500 (Texas Tech, West Virginia), was missing their best player and down to a 3rd-string QB. Yet somehow Oklahoma jumped 4 spots by beating them by 1 at home? And now Oklahoma gets to cement their CFP place by beating an Oklahoma State team that has one win vs a 6+ win team - TCU.

That Big 12 quad group of OU/OSU/TCU/Baylor is exactly what people complained about the SEC West being for years - a group of teams considered good because they beat each other, but with no real outside input to compare them vs other conferences. (Except Alabama and LSU actually did schedule marquee games OOC.)

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

This is actually on year I don't see a large SEC bias (although I'm sure you see a lot more based on where you live). A 1-loss SEC blue blood is sitting at #12 and there are only 4 SEC teams in the CFP top 25, compared to 7 in the current Sagarin computer rankings.

The Big 12 is actually the one benefiting from perception vs reality this week. TCU has more 1-score wins vs under .500 teams (Minnesota, KSU, Kansas) than they do wins vs. teams above .500 (Texas Tech, West Virginia), was missing their best player and down to a 3rd-string QB. Yet somehow Oklahoma jumped 4 spots by beating them by 1 at home? And now Oklahoma gets to cement their CFP place by beating an Oklahoma State team that has one win vs a 6+ win team - TCU.

That Big 12 quad group of OU/OSU/TCU/Baylor is exactly what people complained about the SEC West being for years - a group of teams considered good because they beat each other, but with no real outside input to compare them vs other conferences. (Except Alabama and LSU actually did schedule marquee games OOC.)

I'll agree that the Selection Committee is doing a good job seeing through the bS. But let's dive into your blue blood" (Florida)
1 - Thrashes New Mexico St
2- 7 Point victory over East Carolina
3 - 5 point win over 6 loss Kentucky
4 - 1 Point win over Tenn at Home. Same Tenn team lost at home by 7 to Oklahoma
5 - 28 Point win over Ole Miss. This is a good (not great) win
6 - 18 point win over 6 loss Mizzou. Again no complaints
7 - Loss to a 3 loss LSU team
8 - 24 point win over UGA
9 - 2 point win over 7 loss Vandy
10 - 10 point win over 8 loss SC
11 - 6 point OT win over FAU


Does that sound like a Blue Blood?

Compare that to UNC's results. (And damn this pains me to say it I hate UNC) You tell me who should be ranked 2 places higher.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Does that sound like a Blue Blood?

Historically, yes. I took that to be how the phrase was used.

Florida's schedule has been better than what UNC has faced to date. And with a MUCH better loss.

The only way anyone could rationally justify ranking UNC ahead of Florida right now is on the eye test. Florida looks like a team that'd be lucky to be above (or even at) .500, week after week after week. UNC has been on a heck of a roll (OT vs VaTech notwithstanding) but haven't played a team better than mediocre all year, the schedule Gods have kinda loved/hated on them.

UNC gets their chance to prove themselves soon enough.

[HomerSimpson98]

After the first 4-6 places in their poll, who gives a fuck?

Yes, Florida should not be there. They suck. Bama will wipe the floor with their asses and make all this a moot point.

I still dont see how OU is ranked that high. The Texas team they lost to is horrid. They beat TCU and Baylor when they were short-handed. I'm really hoping oSu knocks them off this weekend.

Outside of losing to Stanford, I dont see how ND is left out. Unfortunately.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Does that sound like a Blue Blood?

Jon nailed it - I agree 2015 Florida is an average team surviving on smoke and mirrors (and admittedly a good defense), but they're a big name SEC school. That's exactly the type of school that an SEC bias should favor, so seeing them at #12 instead of #6 is good.

Originally Posted by HomerSimpson98

Outside of losing to Stanford, I dont see how ND is left out. Unfortunately.

Huh? If the top 3 win out and undefeated Iowa/MSU meet in the B1G title game, ND will finish #5. I hope I'm wrong, but why would the committee move Iowa and Oklahoma above them this week, then say an ND win over Stanford is any more valuable than an Iowa win over MSU or an OU win over Okie State?

[tarcone]

I think a one loss B1G champ gets in. Delaney wouldn't have signed off on a playoff to be left out.
But Iowa would have to lose a close one to Nebby and beat MSU by a lot v

[tarcone]

Or I'm living in a dream world.