NFL Week 17

[Kodos]

Yeah. L.A. had their shot, and didn't really support their teams. Why give them another shot at another city's expense?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Actually the way that the NFL is handling this whole thing it kind of makes me sick. Like it's going to be some kind of celebration that (possibly) two cities are going to lose their teams.

To get LA back, I imagine there will be a celebration. And the league wouldn't much care who it cost them (unless it was NY or CHI) to do it.

Roughly 50% of the U.S. population is contained in the top 25 TV markets.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

...2003 - We sign Matthew Hatchette...

This part I remember, it was right after he spent all spring playing for the Amsterdam Admirals.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

This part I remember, it was right after he spent all spring playing for the Amsterdam Admirals.

And a few years before he played a bartender in a "How I Met Your Mother" episode.

[Radii]

Panthers CB Charles Tillman tore the ACL in his right knee during Carolina's season finale and will miss the postseason.

Well crap. That's two CB's lost for the year in the final month of the season.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I haven't seen anything even remotely resembling a #1 defense over the last few weeks. A lot of that was from the first half of the season.

Seriously, are you out of your F'n mind?

Here is the Denver defense from the KC game on: (KC was our 9th game)

Kansas City - The Chiefs starting field possession was the Denver 40. I wish I was exaggerating. KC forced 5 turnovers. Despite this, they found the end zone one time in the first three quarters of the game. Here are the Chiefs "scoring" drives from that game:

31 yards for a TD
43 yards for a FG
19 yards for a FG
8 yards for a FG
44 yards for a FG
9 yards for a FG
80 yards for a TD (after the 5th Denver TO and most of the D was pulled in the fourth quarter)
8 yards and a missed FG

That defense SHOULD have given up 40 points. To have KC start 5 times in our own territory and only get one TD? That was a stunning outing.


Chicago - 347 yards given up and only a single TD at the end of the game.

NE - 301 total yards, 2-13 on third downs, 7 of the 24 points coming after a turnover at the Broncos 15 yards line.

San Diego - 272 total yards, 3 points and a defensive TD

Oakland - 126 total yards. No, that isn't a misprint. 126 total yards. To put that into perspective, as dominant as the Chiefs were yesterday, they gave up 205. yards.

Pittsburgh - 377 yards given up. Denver played without both of their starting safties. We should probably also keep in mind that the Steelers average over 395 yards a game on the season and more than that when Big Ben is heatlhy. The defense played fine that day. The story was the Denver offense falling apart in the second half.

Here is the Denver offense from the time the game was 27-10 to when the Steelers went up 34-27: 7 drives - 24 plays - 48 yards You want the story of that game? The defense was exhausted due to a completely inept offense.

Cincinnati - 294 total yards against. Cincy scored on their first two possessions. Look at their possession chart afterwards. It looks very similar to the Broncos second half above. The defense simply destroyed Cincy in the second half. They couldn't move the ball at all.

San Diego - 317 yards (San Diego, by the way, aveaged over 370 yards a game this year) Despite FIVE Denver turnovers, the Chargers couldn't score over 20 points. The Chargers had one drive over 50 yards the entire game. (a one play drive with the blown coverage)

You'll note I haven't said anything about KC. KC has played terrific football and they do one thing Denver doesn't. They keep care of the football. It makes it much easier on your defense when you aren't constantly backed up in your own territory. It makes it easier when your offense may not be great, but is good enough to grind out a first down or two each drive.

If Denver turns the ball over at the same clip, they won't last in the postseason. The only way they have lasted is with that defense. I'd be willing to bet money that no other defense in this league would be as dominant with such a pathetic offense behind it.

Lets put this into perspective: The best three defenses in the NFL after Denver would be Seattle, Houston and Kansas City. Seattle and KC COMBINED to have the same amount of giveaways as the Broncos. (16 and 15 while Denver had 31) The Texans had 11 less than Denver at 20. Over 1/3 of the total points given up by Denver this year is through turnovers. That is simply unreal.

Denver might lose to KC again. They could lose to the Steelers or Cincy or even the hated Patriots. To say this defense is living off the first half or hasn't shown itself as a #1 defense? Please. Get real.

[jeff061]

I don't know why people seem to be confident with NE after all the eggs they've laid recently. Who knows what's going to show in a couple weeks.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Seriously, are you out of your F'n mind?

Here is the Denver defense from the KC game on: (KC was our 9th game)

Kansas City - The Chiefs starting field possession was the Denver 40. I wish I was exaggerating. KC forced 5 turnovers. Despite this, they found the end zone one time in the first three quarters of the game. Here are the Chiefs "scoring" drives from that game:

31 yards for a TD
43 yards for a FG
19 yards for a FG
8 yards for a FG
44 yards for a FG
9 yards for a FG
80 yards for a TD (after the 5th Denver TO and most of the D was pulled in the fourth quarter)
8 yards and a missed FG

That defense SHOULD have given up 40 points. To have KC start 5 times in our own territory and only get one TD? That was a stunning outing.


Chicago - 347 yards given up and only a single TD at the end of the game.

NE - 301 total yards, 2-13 on third downs, 7 of the 24 points coming after a turnover at the Broncos 15 yards line.

San Diego - 272 total yards, 3 points and a defensive TD

Oakland - 126 total yards. No, that isn't a misprint. 126 total yards. To put that into perspective, as dominant as the Chiefs were yesterday, they gave up 205. yards.

Pittsburgh - 377 yards given up. Denver played without both of their starting safties. We should probably also keep in mind that the Steelers average over 395 yards a game on the season and more than that when Big Ben is heatlhy. The defense played fine that day. The story was the Denver offense falling apart in the second half.

Here is the Denver offense from the time the game was 27-10 to when the Steelers went up 34-27: 7 drives - 24 plays - 48 yards You want the story of that game? The defense was exhausted due to a completely inept offense.

Cincinnati - 294 total yards against. Cincy scored on their first two possessions. Look at their possession chart afterwards. It looks very similar to the Broncos second half above. The defense simply destroyed Cincy in the second half. They couldn't move the ball at all.

San Diego - 317 yards (San Diego, by the way, aveaged over 370 yards a game this year) Despite FIVE Denver turnovers, the Chargers couldn't score over 20 points. The Chargers had one drive over 50 yards the entire game. (a one play drive with the blown coverage)

You'll note I haven't said anything about KC. KC has played terrific football and they do one thing Denver doesn't. They keep care of the football. It makes it much easier on your defense when you aren't constantly backed up in your own territory. It makes it easier when your offense may not be great, but is good enough to grind out a first down or two each drive.

If Denver turns the ball over at the same clip, they won't last in the postseason. The only way they have lasted is with that defense. I'd be willing to bet money that no other defense in this league would be as dominant with such a pathetic offense behind it.

Lets put this into perspective: The best three defenses in the NFL after Denver would be Seattle, Houston and Kansas City. Seattle and KC COMBINED to have the same amount of giveaways as the Broncos. (16 and 15 while Denver had 31) The Texans had 11 less than Denver at 20. Over 1/3 of the total points given up by Denver this year is through turnovers. That is simply unreal.

Denver might lose to KC again. They could lose to the Steelers or Cincy or even the hated Patriots. To say this defense is living off the first half or hasn't shown itself as a #1 defense? Please. Get real.

Defense is tough to measure. That said, I'd take the Bengals defense over each one you mentioned after Denver.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I don't know why people seem to be confident with NE after all the eggs they've laid recently. Who knows what's going to show in a couple weeks.

Who's being confident? I'm a NE fan and I'm pretty much expecting one-and-done unless they can get most everyone back from injury.

[jeff061]

I think people talking about Cincinnati and Denvers lack of chances. And the odds makers. Pretty much everyone outside of New England, ironically enough.

[jeff061]

Even if they get everyone back, there's been enough turmoil where it will be hard to get the necessary level of cohesion back in 1 game.

[Radii]

When everyone seems flawed, bet on Brady and Belichick. I think its as simple as that for many.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by rowech

Defense is tough to measure. That said, I'd take the Bengals defense over each one you mentioned after Denver.

According to DVOA at Football Outsiders, the final numbers look like this: (lower better)

1) Denver -25.8%
2) Carolina -18.6%
3) Arizona -15.6%
4) Seattle -15.2%
5) New York Jets -13.8%
6) KC -11.4%
10) Cincy -7%


Now lets look at the offensive ranks of those teams: (higher better)

25) Denver -8.8%
8) Carolina +9.9%
4) Arizona +15.8%
2) Seattle +18.5%
14) NY Jets +1.5%
6) Kansas City +11.7%
1) Cincy +18.6%



Again, look at that list and you go ahead and tell me how the Denver Broncos have the #1 seed in the AFC. His assertion the Denver defense hasn't been top quality is beyond ridiculous.

No other top defense has had to deal with this level of ineptitude. none. Denver somehow managed to rack up the 8th best defensive DVOA from 1999 to the current season. that is beyond unreal. By the way extra weight is put into the final 8 games of the season here. Denver still destroys everyone in defense. Meanwhile the favorites for the Super Bowl would be Seattle/Carolina in the NFC and Cincy/KC in the AFC.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Radii

When everyone seems flawed, bet on Brady and Belichick. I think its as simple as that for many.

How can you not? NE is going to be there and they will be a tough out. Actually, I think the AFC playoffs should be pretty damned good all around. It wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers, Chiefs, Bengals, Patriots or Broncos to go to the Super Bowl. You can make a strong case both for and against all of those teams.

In the NFC, I see only 3 teams with a true shot. Carolina, Seattle or Arizona. I just can't see GB, Washington, or Minnesota having a real shot.

[Logan]

Prepare to have your mind blown. Brian Urlacher now has hair:

[jbergey22]

I know everyone is talking about Cam, which is well deserved, as a MVP candidate. It is surprising that more isnt being said about Carson Palmer. Always been an above average QB, 7-15 range but suddenly over the past 2 years(in his mid thirties) has improved into that 1-5 mark that few could ever get into. He has been fantastic this year.

[miked]

Originally Posted by TroyF

According to DVOA at Football Outsiders, the final numbers look like this: (lower better)

1) Denver -25.8%
2) Carolina -18.6%
3) Arizona -15.6%
4) Seattle -15.2%
5) New York Jets -13.8%
6) KC -11.4%
10) Cincy -7%


Now lets look at the offensive ranks of those teams: (higher better)

25) Denver -8.8%
8) Carolina +9.9%
4) Arizona +15.8%
2) Seattle +18.5%
14) NY Jets +1.5%
6) Kansas City +11.7%
1) Cincy +18.6%



Again, look at that list and you go ahead and tell me how the Denver Broncos have the #1 seed in the AFC. His assertion the Denver defense hasn't been top quality is beyond ridiculous.

No other top defense has had to deal with this level of ineptitude. none. Denver somehow managed to rack up the 8th best defensive DVOA from 1999 to the current season. that is beyond unreal. By the way extra weight is put into the final 8 games of the season here. Denver still destroys everyone in defense. Meanwhile the favorites for the Super Bowl would be Seattle/Carolina in the NFC and Cincy/KC in the AFC.

While I'm in general agreement, let's not get to hyperbolic here. Each year there is a playoff team in a similar predicament as the Broncos, what they are doing is not THAT historic. Looking back at ARI for example, they ranked in the top 5 defenses for 2013 and 2014 despite having inept offenses. Perhaps it was not as extreme, but not that far off. Looking at 2012, the Bears were the same with the top defense and one of the worst offenses with a 10-6 record.

Denver's defense has been amazing this year considering the offense has turned the ball over at will. They are -4 in turnovers and still have the #1 defense which is pretty awesome.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm not sure where this goes, but Week 17 seems like the best place for it:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Final 2015 DVOA Ratings

Defense is where we ended up with the extremes. Denver drops a bit with its final game, and ends up No. 8 on the all-time defense list. New Orleans made things really close by somehow playing a close defensive game against Atlanta with a 20-17 final, but in the end the Saints are narrowly worse than the 2000 Vikings to establish themselves as the worst defense in DVOA history. Good job, Saints! Things were particular horrible when it came to the passing game, where the Saints pretty much lapped every team we've ever measured with 48.1% pass defense DVOA. Only two other teams had ever allowed over 40% passing on defense, the 1999 San Francisco 49ers (41.7%) and the funhouse-mirror, great-offense and terrible-defense 1996 Ravens in Ray Lewis' rookie year (42.0%).

Even more impressive -- or, I guess, the opposite of impressive -- is the colossal gap in suckitude between the Saints and every other bad defense in the league. There has never been anything like it. Despite the best efforts of defensive-minded new head coach John Fox, the Chicago Bears finished 31st in defensive DVOA. But the Bears finished 31st with a rating of 11.3%. So the gap between the Saints and Bears was a mind-boggling 14.8%. In other words, the difference between the Bears and league average was smaller than the difference between the Bears and the Saints. The gap between the Saints and every other defense was over twice as large as the gap between the last-place and next-to-last-place defenses in any other season. The previous record belonged to the 1992 Atlanta Falcons, who had 21.3% defensive DVOA while the Los Angeles Rams were 27th (in a 28-team league) at 14.4%. The only other year where the gap was over five percentage points was 2000, with a 6.7% gap between the Vikings and the No. 30 Arizona Cardinals.

Drew Brees dragged this defense to 7 wins. As a Saints fan, I, of course, am unspeakably happy that he ended up with my team. As a Brees fan, I feel bad that he probably missed out on a couple more Super Bowls (and certainly a lot of playoff appearances) by being stuck on a team that has set several "worst ever in the history of professional football" records during his time there.

[Kodos]

So starting the Saints defense all year in FF was a mistake? Crap!

[jeff061]

Don't care if I get accused of being overly defensive for revisiting this. A lot of people on this board belittled me as a homer for rightfully shitting all over the fumble analysis with the Pats.

After Deflategate, Patriots still lead NFL with fewest fumbles | The MMQB with Peter King

Long story short, 2015 they had one of their best fumble rates they've had in a decade, leading the league.

[Kodos]

Stickem on gloves. Magnetized balls.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'm not sure where this goes, but Week 17 seems like the best place for it:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Final 2015 DVOA Ratings



Drew Brees dragged this defense to 7 wins. As a Saints fan, I, of course, am unspeakably happy that he ended up with my team. As a Brees fan, I feel bad that he probably missed out on a couple more Super Bowls (and certainly a lot of playoff appearances) by being stuck on a team that has set several "worst ever in the history of professional football" records during his time there.

Wow! Thinking back didnt the 2000 Vikings make the NFC Championship game before getting dismantled by the Giants? Or was that 2001?

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by miked

While I'm in general agreement, let's not get to hyperbolic here. Each year there is a playoff team in a similar predicament as the Broncos, what they are doing is not THAT historic. Looking back at ARI for example, they ranked in the top 5 defenses for 2013 and 2014 despite having inept offenses. Perhaps it was not as extreme, but not that far off. Looking at 2012, the Bears were the same with the top defense and one of the worst offenses with a 10-6 record.

Denver's defense has been amazing this year considering the offense has turned the ball over at will. They are -4 in turnovers and still have the #1 defense which is pretty awesome.

I don't think any of the offenses you mentioned were within 7 turnovers of what Denver gave away this year. It was a truly horrific effort from start to finish this year and the Denver defense constantly had to pay for the offenses mistakes.

I'm not overprotective of this team, because I haven't thought they were a Super Bowl team at any point this year. I'm very protective of some moronic statement about the defense.

This is the best defense in the NFL by a long shot. It wasn't a defense that resembled anything other than a dominant defense for the entire year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Wow! Thinking back didnt the 2000 Vikings make the NFC Championship game before getting dismantled by the Giants? Or was that 2001?

And the #5 offense (by total yards)

Their last winning season until 2008.