2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

What scares me the most about Trump, and really most of the Republican candidates, is they type into type of leadership that people (incorrectly, I feel) see as great, but is really problematic.

There are two times in the past year where Obama has been faced with a situation and his responses to both are what elevates him from good to great in my mind. Those two situations are the ebola crisis and the syrian refugee situation. Instead of going off the rails with nonsense (OMG TRAVEL BOYCOTT NOW, PUT NURSES IN TENTS, BLOCK EVERYONE WHO WENT ANYWHERE NEAR EBOLA or OMG SYRIANS ARE COMING TO KILL US JUST LIKE THEY DID IN FRANCE, SEND THEM AWAY NOW!!!!!!!), he took the smart, compassionate road in each situation. What really scares me is that kind of leadership is what people love. They eat it up. There's a reason why Halsey is a more revered WW2 admiral than Spruance, when the latter was far more effective. If a Republican was in charge during either of those situations, they would've taken the wrong approach in both situations and sadly the public probably would've lauded them for it. And that response would guide future politicians on how to handle similar situations.

Are there specific examples you are thinking of where a Republican president went off the rails (via executive order I'm assuming)?

I just assume (naively I guess) the gravity of the office makes reactionary decrees pretty rare.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

Are there specific examples you are thinking of where a Republican president went off the rails (via executive order I'm assuming)?

I just assume (naively I guess) the gravity of the office makes reactionary decrees pretty rare.

I'm not talking about what Republicans did in the past or even Republicans in general. For instance, Democratic Governors like Andrew Cuomo also took the wrong stance in the Ebola situation. I would heavily oppose him for the same reason. The current candidates (even Kasich) have supported a ban on refugees and I believe they'd have issued a travel ban.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Yeah, we definitely disagree about who "the base" is.

I think so.

My definition of "the base" is those Republicans who have consistently voted Republican for years, who attend the county conventions, staff the phones, rally the troops, become activists. Some of those are establishment types, but most are the conservative wing. These are the people that vote in closed primaries, show up for closes caucuses, etc. These people have been much more likely to go with a conservative, ala Cruz, or an establishment type, ala Kasich, and these are those whom polls and primary results have shown have a highly negative view of Trump.

Now, many Republicans of the base have grown so frustrated over the establishment's control of the GOP that they have left the "base" to pursue independents, Constitution Party folks, or just stayed home in recent elections. Many of these are now Trump supporters.

This all reflects the war in the GOP over the last 20 years. Who even is the "base" anymore is tough to discern.

[BishopMVP]

Not sure if this was posted, but a worthwhile look at Romney's thinking regardless of your feelings on him/Trump - Mitt Romney spoke out against Donald Trump after months of rising frustration - The Boston Globe

It could probably be twisted and used to support 7 or 8 different narratives, but the parallels to his father's failed campaign do add some interesting color.

In 1964, a 17-year-old Mitt Romney joined his father, George, at Republican National Convention. George Romney urged the party to adopt a platform rejecting “extremists,” but he failed, Barry Goldwater became the party’s nominee, and Romney was furious.

As he wrote later in a letter to Goldwater, George Romney feared those who were “preaching and practicing hate and bearing false witness on the basis of guilt by association.”

“With such extremists rising to positions of leadership in the Republican Party, we cannot recapture the respect of the nation and lead it to its necessary spiritual, moral, and political rebirth if we hide our heads in the sand and decline to even recognize in our platform that the nation is again beset by modern ‘know nothings,’ ” Romney wrote.

[molson]

Speaking of Goldwater, I saw this one floating around a lot today. If this sentiment exists to any degree in 2016 it would be great for Clinton in opposing Trump.

[IMG][/IMG]

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

My turn to vote in the primary tomorrow. Do I vote for the Republican I want to win or vote for Bernie to hopefully kick Hillary out of the race?

[ISiddiqui]

If you think Sanders is going to "kick Hillary out of the race" then you have reached interesting levels of delusion . So vote for the person you want to win.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

My turn to vote in the primary tomorrow. Do I vote for the Republican I want to win or vote for Bernie to hopefully kick Hillary out of the race?

It would take the entire Republican electorate crossing over to support Sanders to make that happen at this point. Hillary's lead is huge and losing a handful of Missouri delegates in a proportional contest is meaningless. Her lead will probably grow tomorrow, even assuming a shift has begun in Sanders' favor.

However, on the Republican side, all Missouri districts are individually WTA, so if you care about the Trump/Cruz thing, your vote actually could mean something.

[tarcone]

Looking forward to tomorrow. Hoping the good guy wins.

[EagleFan]

Vote for the only candidate that could help the country, Kasich.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by revrew

I think so.

My definition of "the base" is those Republicans who have consistently voted Republican for years, who attend the county conventions, staff the phones, rally the troops, become activists. Some of those are establishment types, but most are the conservative wing. These are the people that vote in closed primaries, show up for closes caucuses, etc.

Yes, we definitely do have a different working definition. I use the term with regard to a considerably larger number of voters, those that define the direction of the party by sheer voting weight.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

My turn to vote in the primary tomorrow. Do I vote for the Republican I want to win or vote for Bernie to hopefully kick Hillary out of the race?

This may be a scenario where Hillary's only hurdle may be her supporters voting for Trump in open states to give her the easy win in November.

I would not recommend taking the vote Sanders approach. He is the absolute worst choice and shouldn't be anywhere near the general election (we don't need turned into the USSA with bread lines). Trump is only slightly better than him and should also not be anywhere near the general election (we don't need to relive 1930's Germany).

[JPhillips]

Oh, come on. He's not calling for nationalization of industry and confiscation of property. The country will live through single payer healthcare and higher marginal tax rates.

[cuervo72]

And the whole college thing - he's not even calling for free college for everyone, everywhere. Just public institutions. Like he said in one of the debates - he doesn't think the Clintons would send their grandkids to a public school to take advantage of such a perk, but if she wanted to, sure. "All college is free!" is a mischaracterization.

(Not that free is necessarily feasible, but it does at least attempt to steer the land grant style institutions back to what they were established for, rather than having students pay fees to support sports programs, etc.)

[ISiddiqui]

We'll live through Trump's demagoguery as well. He was purposefully engaging in hyperbole.

[miked]

What is the USSA? Do we really believe if Sanders is elected people will be waiting in 3 miles lines for oranges and toothpaste? I mean, this is a message board for people who like data, right?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

We'll live through Trump's demagoguery as well. He was purposefully engaging in hyperbole.

This is my thought as well.

[Solecismic]

Today's "Mega Tuesday" or "Super Tuesday II" or whatever you want to call it...

Current Standings:

Trump: 15 wins, 464 delegates
Cruz: 7 wins, 372 delegates
Rubio: 3 wins, 166 delegates
Kasich: 0 wins, 63 delegates
Unbound: 3 wins, 74 delegates

Today's Votes:

Florida: Closed Primary, 99 delegates, winner-takes-all. RCP average - Trump 43, Rubio 24, Cruz 19, Kasich 9.

Illinois: Open Primary, 69 delegates, of which 15 are state-wide winner-takes-all. Illinois is one of the two states (Pennsylvania is the other) where all district delegates are individually elected. They call these "loophole" delegates. This rewards candidates with "grass-roots" ability. RCP average - Trump 36, Cruz 30, Kasich 19, Rubio 14.

Missouri: Open Primary, 52 delegates, of which 12 are state-wide winner-takes-all. The other 40 are divided into eight districts. Each district is winner-takes-all. Polling is largely absent here, but one would suspect it's a two-man race between Trump and Cruz.

North Carolina: Open Primary, 72 delegates, assigned proportionally with no threshold. RCP average is Trump 41, Cruz 29, Kasich 11, Rubio 9.

Northern Marianas: Caucus, 9 delegates, winner-takes-all. These are located east of the Philippines and north of Guam. The northern-most island is called Farallon de Pajaros. Little known fact: Trump thinks Obama was born there.

Ohio: Open Primary, 99 delegates, winner-takes-all. RCP average is Kasich 38, Trump 34, Cruz 18, Rubio 5.

A total of 367 delegates are on the line, which is 28% of the remaining total. We've been bewaring the Ides of March for a long time now.

Here's my guess...

Florida gives 99 to Trump. He's popular there, the polls give him a yuuge lead. Rubio's collapse came at a bad time. I'm hardly going out on a limb here.

North Carolina goes fairly close to where the polls show things, Trump getting 35, Cruz getting 29, Kasich 5 and Rubio 3.

In Illinois, Trump's organization has been weak. Cruz surprises people by winning 47 delegates to Trump's 22, including the at-large prize.

Cruz wins the Marianas because he is the only one who found them on a map.

Missouri goes down to the wire, with Cruz taking a slim victory. He gets 32 and Trump gets 20.

Ohio gives its 66 delegates to Kasich.

Total: Trump 176, Cruz 117, Kasich 71, Rubio 3. This knocks Trump a little further from the path he needs to win outright. Rubio drops out. And Arizona becomes very, very important next week.

Contest for today...

Predict Ohio percentages. Then the overall winners of Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina.

My Entry:

Trump: Florida, North Carolina.
Cruz: Illinois, Missouri.

Ohio: Kasich 45, Trump 37, Cruz 15, Rubio 3.

[GrantDawg]

Trump: Florida (ugh), and North Carolina (very closely, maybe toss-up)
Cruz: Illinois, Missouri

Ohio: Kasich 40, Trump 38, Cruz 18, Rubio 4

[Dutch]

I'm really regretting that this wasn't a race between Rubio and Kasich. What an interesting race that would've been. Really could have brought a lot of people back into the Conservative fold.

[stevew]

I wouldn't be shocked if Ohio went for Trump. It's definitely a weird state.

[PilotMan]

It seems to me that the Republicans are quickly closing in on a lose/lose situation. Talk as much as you want about shifting support from Trump or Cruz if the field is winnowed, but what you're about to see is situation where the loyalty is tested.

Loyalty seems to be one of the hallmarks of Republican voters. Vote what you believe all the time and let the cards fall where they may is the result. The problem is that Trump and Cruz have now accumulated enough loyal followers that any challenge at a contested convention is going to suck so many people out of the polls in November that by mere numbers alone, the party will struggle to even keep it close.

Hillary could help bring those people back, but in my estimation, the Dems do a much better job of making pragmatic choices and are willing to move toward the the party candidate more than the Republicans this election cycle.

[Coffee Warlord]

Appears the only Republican doing anything in the way of spending here in Illinois is Cruz. I've heard several radio ads for him the last couple of days. I've heard one for Rubio, and nothing from anyone else (on the GOP side).

Doesn't really surprise me. Why pour resources into Illinois if you're a Republican when you know the state isn't going your way come November.

[cuervo72]

Regarding the Marianas, I read (probably at 538) that the Governor (or whatever they have) had been in the Carson campaign and endorsed Trump after Carson closed up shop. I don't know what local politics there look like, but possibly worth noting.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Doesn't really surprise me. Why pour resources into Illinois if you're a Republican when you know the state isn't going your way come November.

I dunno. It still has 69 delegates.

There have been 6 Illinois polls since mid-February (before which there wasn't a poll since last July). All show a comfortable, though declining, Trump lead. The last one showed him at +4 over Cruz.

My guess is the lack of resources is a combination of:

1. Focusing on Ohio
2. Only Cruz has a real shot of beating Trump in IL.
3. Besides Trump, only Cruz has plenty of money left/coming in

As an aside, on #3, there's this article from 3 weeks ago with data, but anything more up-to-date would be appreciated. But, as the aside, this seems correct in that a) I don't suspect Kasich has seen an uptick in contributions to anywhere approach Cruz and b) while I wouldn't be surprised if Rubio's incomings have been healthy, I would imagine he was spending heavily to try and win Florida.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Regarding the Marianas, I read (probably at 538) that the Governor (or whatever they have) had been in the Carson campaign and endorsed Trump after Carson closed up shop. I don't know what local politics there look like, but possibly worth noting.

Apparently it worked, because Trump won 73%-24% over Cruz. So that's 9 delegates for the orange one.

[digamma]

I'm sort of fascinated by the Northern Marianas because I took a weird trip to Rota once. The governor said he "was informed" that Trump had adopted Carson's plan to appoint a special assistant in DC with direct responsibility for the territories. And that the governor didn't hear from anyone else.

Given the precious delegate math, one might have thought trusTED would lob in a call to the Guv'na.

[tarcone]

Polliing in MO had it Trump 36 Cruz 30 with a +/- 7

[Solecismic]

Early returns in Ohio (8%) show an absolute blood-bath in favor of Kasich. So ABT remains alive. This makes Illinois/Missouri much more interesting.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I'm really regretting that this wasn't a race between Rubio and Kasich. What an interesting race that would've been. Really could have brought a lot of people back into the Conservative fold.

You ARE kidding, right? Dem lite vs Dem lite? Who is it bringing in, more f'n liberals? That's a pair that should have been kicked out of any party claiming to be "conservative" long ago.

Neither is worth the cost of the rope it'd take to hang them.

But you did say "interesting", so I suppose having the Ds run against D-lite could be "interesting" ... except we've seen that for the past 8 years already, how "interesting" were those debacles?

[Ben E Lou]

Rubio officially suspends campaign.

[ISiddiqui]

And then there were 3.

[tarcone]

Cruz/Rubio is on the docket.

Will it be enough?

[cuervo72]

I keep finding Rubio as liberal amusing.

Why Aren’t Republican Leaders Rallying Behind Marco Rubio? | FiveThirtyEight

Kasich, sure.

John Kasich: A Jeb Bush In Jon Huntsman Clothing | FiveThirtyEight

[Solecismic]

Rubio gives great speeches. I can't help but like him when he sounds the right notes, expresses exactly why we shouldn't support Trump.

If he had a record behind him, it would be another story. But he doesn't.

Trump, meanwhile... he's hurt. The road to 1,237 is starting to look quite rocky. We'll know more from Illinois in particular, but I think North Carolina is a state he would have won by 15 a month ago and Cruz is hanging in there. As people drop out, their support is mostly going to Cruz and Kasich.

What happens in a contested convention, then? The landscape will be quite different after June 7 (the last primaries) and if Trump has his 40% of the delegates, but not momentum, what do the Republicans do? Probably lose to Hillary, but there's a lot of time left to come up with a strategy.

[NobodyHere]

Rubio's speech tonight was probably the best one I've heard him give all campaign.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

What happens in a contested convention, then? The landscape will be quite different after June 7 (the last primaries) and if Trump has his 40% of the delegates, but not momentum, what do the Republicans do? Probably lose to Hillary, but there's a lot of time left to come up with a strategy.

I mentioned it earlier in the thread, but it bears repeating: they have absolutely no choice if Trump has the most delegates. His base isn't savvy enough to understand that when you hitch your wagon to a Party, you have to play by that Party's rules. They'll go absolutely nutso if he has the most delegates and doesn't get the nomination, even if it's completely within the rules, and will never forgive the Party.

The convention is going to be an absolute zoo.

[SirFozzie]

I guess that not being able to win his home state was the step that Rubio made that irrecoverably knocked him out of the primaries.

You might say... (puts on sunglasses)..

Today.. he crossed.. the Rubio-con

(yeaaaaahhhhhh!)

(Hey, give me a break, been a long time since I've made this bad a pun, and I did it with ancient roman history, that deserves bonus points, right?)

[GrantDawg]

I have to agree with the sentiment that Rubio gives a great speech. I knew he was stepping out when his family came out with him. I will say, about half way through, I thought he might pull a shocker and endorse Cruz on the spot. What he was describing as what the party needs sounded very much like Cruz.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Rubio officially suspends campaign.

See ya Marco. I bet Hilary is breathing a sigh of relief as he would have taken some of the Hispanic and black vote from her.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Rubio officially suspends campaign.

Sad day for me, now I have to back my team, for better or for worse.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Rubio gives great speeches.

And Kasich doezzzzzzzzzzn't. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Trump, meanwhile... he's hurt. The road to 1,237 is starting to look quite rocky. We'll know more from Illinois in particular, but I think North Carolina is a state he would have won by 15 a month ago and Cruz is hanging in there.

Well, CNN's called Florida, Illinois and North Carolina for Trump, and he looks good in Missouri. That's 99, 69 (3 more than Ohio, btw) and some proportion of 72, respectively. And 52 if he can pick up Missouri. That's 725 if he gets Missouri and let's say half of North Carolina.

He'd need 512 of the remaining 946. Seems do-able.

[vex]

Trump knows his Physics...

[flere-imsaho]

By way of comparison, by the time Illinois voted on March 20th in 2012, Romney had accumulated 628 delegates.

[Jas_lov]

How does Trump get 725? I think he'll be more around 640 but the map does not set up well for Cruz. A lot of NE states that Trump will win.

[JPhillips]

If Trump gets nominated, what happens to all the Koch money? I can't imagine they drop 750 mil on Donald. Do they repurpose it towards Senate and Governor races?

[PilotMan]

Without a doubt. There are already rumors that it's already a done deal. They have no intention of backing Trump in any way.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Without a doubt. There are already rumors that it's already a done deal. They have no intention of backing Trump in any way.

And that's another huge positive for him. He doesn't need their money and the fact that these people continue to say they won't support him only makes him more attractive to a lot of voters who feel that the Republican Party doesn't look out for their best interests.

[Solecismic]

Missouri is showing 99% reported, with all counties except Jackson (Kansas City and SE suburbs) showing 100%. Jackson is also showing 99%, which may mean only one precinct is out.

However, new votes are often reported from areas that are supposedly 100% in.

On the Republican side, Trump holds a 1,726-vote lead, and Jackson came in 28,661-26,714 for Cruz.

On the Democratic side, Clinton holds a 1,531-vote lead, and Jackson came in 48,860-42,823 for Clinton.

If this were purely about one precinct, my guess is that both leads hold. But nobody has called these races because when the margin is this small, things could change.