2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Ben E Lou]

Cooper (D) wins NC Gov.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

Serious question: could corruption and collusion have infiltrated and drilled and become pitted so far down into our Democratic system that election results are actually not accurate? It’s either that or Nate Silver and the like are so so terrible at their job and wrong.

That occurred to me, but I'm trying really hard to not be jaded and conspiracy minded. If it's happened, and that's what it is, we'll never actually know, and there won't be anything we can do about it and nothing will matter going forward, because it's ended.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Billy Madison

Serious question: could corruption and collusion have infiltrated and drilled and become pitted so far down into our Democratic system that election results are actually not accurate? It’s either that or Nate Silver and the like are so so terrible at their job and wrong.

Couldn't happen that fast with the outstanding historical track record that modern polling has. This is definitely an event that will be studied long and hard to figure out why it was so far off - if it stays as far off as it appears.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

Serious question: could corruption and collusion have infiltrated and drilled and become pitted so far down into our Democratic system that election results are actually not accurate? It’s either that or Nate Silver and the like are so so terrible at their job and wrong.

I don't think so. I think the attempts at voter suppression and fucking around with mail-in ballots are brazen and horrible and some of them might succeed, but what you're suggesting as far as internal efforts to fuck with the actual will of the people I think at this point I would put on the level of the right talking about mass voter fraud amongst the left as far as my assumption of what's currently happening.

[bhlloy]

I don't think as bad as things get you could possibly rig a vote large scale enough for it to matter. There are too many incredibly qualified people with eyes on it.

It's far more likely to be that polls continue to get worse (at least in elections where people are highly motivated), things like high turnout got interpreted to mean one thing when they quite simply could (and probably should looking at 2016) have been interpreted as another, and people are still really bad at judging error bars and sample size.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

So is this the point where I come in and revisit the fact that I predicted that the same thing that happened in 2016 would happen in 2020? It's not over yet, but the pollsters really have some explaining to do because they aren't even close AGAIN. When Nate Silver and his crew are openly questioning their techniques on their live election blog, there's some big issues.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - the really interesting thing will be to see how many of these states fell within the margin of error and how many didn't. If we have another one where it's significantly out of the margin of error, stick a fork in traditional polling. It's done.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Of course Michigan and Pennsylvania are saying they probably won't count all of their votes (and mostly mail in) until later this week. That's going to be fun.

So basically we are now virtually guaranteed the chaos.

I want to cry now. But I think it's time for me to just go to sleep instead.

[PilotMan]

I never had a feeling that Biden was never going to win FL, OH, TX, or PA. Having said that, MI and WI, AZ and NC are where the real battle is and looks like it will be. Those were places where the biggest chances were for Biden, and he will need to bang them in.

[Brian Swartz]

Ohio union voters 56-42 in Trump's favor. Another example of a group where the CW was they'll abandon Trump because of everything he's done to them. Or perhaps they knew who they were voting for the first time, and meant it. What others thought should be important them isn't what they saw.

[Ksyrup]

My brother pretty much nailed it. Even down to the margins in FL and OH.

Biden is done. AZ means nothing without a PA/GA/NC/FL/OH to go with it, even if you assume he gets MN/WI/MI.

I guess that would make NV the state he needs to go with AZ as his only path.

[Radii]

With North Carolina up to 93% reporting I don't think there's enough left in the blue counties to catch them up anymore.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Ohio union voters 56-42 in Trump's favor. Another example of a group where the CW was they'll abandon Trump because of everything he's done to them. Or perhaps they knew who they were voting for the first time, and meant it. What others thought should be important them isn't what they saw.

Where's my post from weeks ago where the two blue collar guys explained why they were voting for Trump, and it was a list of 6-8 things they claimed Trump did and all of them were 100% wrong. It was crazy.

[Swaggs]

On top of pollsters taking it on the chin, we also have to question why the conventional wisdom has always been high vote turnout is better for democrats.

[ISiddiqui]

In PA looks like most of the missing votes are in Philly and the suburbs (30% in for all those counties).

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[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

My brother pretty much nailed it. Even down to the margins in FL and OH.

Biden is done. AZ means nothing without a PA/GA/NC/FL/OH to go with it, even if you assume he gets MN/WI/MI.

You can get to 270 with the one vote from NE if he gets AZ, WI, and MI. Without NE, it could be 269-269.

He's still got a decent chance. But after 2016, I think we all expect it to go to Trump.

[BillyMadison]

Yikes

[Radii]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

He's still got a decent chance. But after 2016, I think we all expect it to go to Trump.

Yup

[Butter]

Speaking of raw vote numbers, I don't think the Republicans can win AZ. All he needs is MI, WI, AZ and the 2 congressional districts in ME and NE to win. Wouldn't even need PA.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

You can get to 270 with the one vote from NE if he gets AZ, WI, and MI. Without NE, it could be 269-269.

He's still got a decent chance. But after 2016, I think we all expect it to go to Trump.

ABC already called all three Nebraska electoral college votes for Trump.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm not nearly there yet. NC is still in play. So is PA. We don't know nearly enough about the mail-in ballots.

I didn't want it come down to that obviously and clearly I was dead wrong about the margin, about Texas, etc. But this is a long way from over and I still don't favor Trump yet.

[Ironhead]

Can someone speak to how things are looking in MI so far?

[ISiddiqui]

I know we have whiplash from 2016, but in 2018 everyone thought the Dems lost big. This board had a number of people angry at the Dems and then a couple days later it turned out the Dems won massively. So... Probably should wait.. esp with so many mail in ballots.

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[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

On top of pollsters taking it on the chin, we also have to question why the conventional wisdom has always been high vote turnout is better for democrats.

I think Trump breaks a bunch of CW. He's this weird unicorn.

That seems too simple but maybe it's also it.

SI

[Butter]

Originally Posted by henry296

ABC already called all three Nebraska electoral college votes for Trump.

There are still 2 more votes that are tied to the 2 House districts.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I know we have whiplash from 2016, but in 2018 everyone thought the Dems lost big. This board had a number of people angry at the Dems and then a couple days later it turned out the Dems won massively. So... Probably should wait.. esp with so many mail in ballots.

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Yeah, 2018 started off looking pretty bad, then after it was done it was pretty wide for the Dems. Having said that, is this real life? Life for real?

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by henry296

ABC already called all three Nebraska electoral college votes for Trump.

I thought it was 4 out of 5

[tarcone]

Parson wins MO governor.


Not a bad governor. and not one that I am against. Bit one that is tell tale of this presidential election. A rural guy that the country folk LOVE and came out and voted for. Welcome to 2020

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Butter

There are still 2 more votes that are tied to the 2 House districts.

Sorry, I saw they won the 2 statewide and the 3rd district and though that was the all of them.

[ISiddiqui]

So it's looking like we'll have Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania up for Trump tonight with tons of mail in ballots yet to count. And if they all end up Biden, things after going to get reaaaaly messy.

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[PilotMan]

Some of these states are saying that they are not even starting some of the early counts until tomorrow.

Go to bed. There's nothing more to glean tonight.

[stevew]

unsurprisingly the PA law is dumb so they had to let 350k votes build up in Philly and something less in Pitts and they couldn't start counting them until 7am today.

[tarcone]

Parson won most rural counties 80-20 over Galloway in MO

And this is why Trump will win.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Cooper (D) wins NC Gov.

That someone could mark a Cooper-Trump ballot makes no sense to me

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Some of these states are saying that they are not even starting some of the early counts until tomorrow.

Go to bed. There's nothing more to glean tonight.

Dude, it is already over. Go to bed and wake up to 4 more years of crazy

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Parson won most rural counties 80-20 over Galloway in MO

And this is why Trump will win.

Why should rural areas care about city problems? They don't have them. They don't worry about them. It's easy to vote for the guy who says I'll keep you living like you're living now, or better. If that's all you're paying attention to, that's all that matters.

[Arles]

If the one Nebraska vote decides it for Biden, I’m buying a bunch of Omaha Steaks.

[Vegas Vic]

Fox News just called Arizona for Biden.

[Arles]

Trump is down to -161 on the betting market

[Swaggs]

Seems like Nevada may be the only real interesting state left to call for tonight. GA, NC, PA, OH, WI, and MI seem destined to be too close or early to call.

The senate race in Montana seemed like it could be interesting, but Sounds like the dem is underperforming. Maybe Alaska senator will be close. And Iowa senate, possibly (but it doesn’t seem like that type of night).

[larrymcg421]

Can we wait until the election is over before shitting on polling? Polling leads were narrow in FL and NC. The polling did pick up on AZ and the closeness of TX (and probably GA). It picked up on Kelly and Hickenlooper, etc.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

So is this the point where I come in and revisit the fact that I predicted that the same thing that happened in 2016 would happen in 2020? It's not over yet, but the pollsters really have some explaining to do because they aren't even close AGAIN. When Nate Silver and his crew are openly questioning their techniques on their live election blog, there's some big issues.

You also said the same thing in 2008 and 2012.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Arles

Trump is down to -161 on the betting market

Their job is take people's money. Seems weird they take betting odds on something where the actions that decided it have already been taken.

Aside from Hawaii and Alaska, there's literally nothing anyone can do about the results, it's already locked in. It's like watching the Braves on the playoffs, you know what's going to happen and how, just not the exact sequence.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Can we wait until the election is over before shitting on polling? Polling leads were narrow in FL and NC. The polling did pick up on AZ and the closeness of TX (and probably GA). It picked up on Kelly and Hickenlooper, etc.

It’s more that 538 said Biden had an 89% chance. That looks a little silly now.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Arles

It’s more that 538 said Biden had an 89% chance. That looks a little silly now.

Is it? If Biden pulls it out by taking AZ and ME-2 or NE-2, then that's one of the scenarios that made up the 89%. Part of the reason it was 89% is because Biden could lose a ton of swing states and still win.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Why should rural areas care about city problems? They don't have them. They don't worry about them. It's easy to vote for the guy who says I'll keep you living like you're living now, or better. If that's all you're paying attention to, that's all that matters.

Because St louis problems dominate the headlines. Our state government had to deal with the violence in St Louis. The government had to deal with the overwhelming cases of covid int he city and county.

Rural counties do not want to deal with that shit. And they spoke. KC and STL voted for Parson, a rural dude that refused to shut the state down. Who refused to believe Covid was a bad deal, even though he got it.

MO is the country is the country.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Arles

It’s more that 538 said Biden had an 89% chance. That looks a little silly now.

He just said that if Trump wins FL, OH, and NC, but Biden wins AZ, Biden is an 85% favorite. That doesn’t make sense to me.

[Swaggs]

Maine is coming in annoyingly slow for a relatively small state.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

He just said that if Trump wins FL, OH, and NC, but Biden wins AZ, Biden is an 85% favorite. That doesn’t make sense to me.

Because Biden is expected to take MI and WI. If he wins AZ, then he just needs ME-2 or NE-2 (or PA).

[tarcone]

That Fox dial gave Biden AR