2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, I think Trump makes AZ really close, but Biden takes it with maybe 0.5%. PA looks like it'll be 2% for Biden when it's all done.

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[sterlingice]

And Georgia looks like it'll squeak to Biden, too

Si

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

It's so close that it's hard to justify the call even if it ends up right.

Agreed.

Last night, I was channel surfing between CNN, Fox News, MSNBC and the other networks. One thing that struck me about the Fox News panel was that it seemed they were going overboard on not trying to be biased toward Trump. It was almost like listening to Jay Bilas call a Duke basketball game on ESPN.

[Butter]

The AP has also called AZ for Biden. Not saying they can't be wrong, but it'd be extremely surprising.

Perhaps they are mistaking the nature of the AZ mail in vote versus other states. But I don't believe it's a mistake

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Agreed.

Last night, I was channel surfing between CNN, Fox News, MSNBC and the other networks. One thing that struck me about the Fox News panel was that it seemed they were going overboard on not trying to be biased toward Trump. It was almost like listening to Jay Bilas call a Duke basketball game on ESPN.

I was getting tired of NBC and CNN's dithering so I actually went to Fox more than I usually do

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Looks to be like the overall picture is that there is enough of a margin ... just enough ... to avoid any credible long-term court challenge.

This is the first time I've ever been physically ill the day after an election, '16 included. I may gain more perspective in time, but coupled with other events in recent years I conclude that most of what was once worthy in America from an institutional standpoint is dead. It's much different for me psychologically to consider it dead instead of dying, which has been my POV for decades.

My life personally will be fine, but I think the world needs more from this nation than we will ever be able or even interested in giving in the future.

What do you mean by "institutional standpoint"?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I was getting tired of NBC and CNN's dithering so I actually went to Fox more than I usually do

SI

We tried to a several times and literally every time it was a commercial.

[ISiddiqui]

186k lead in PA. Still 88% counted. Still 70% in Philadelphia County.

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[JPhillips]

I'm seeing projections for a 6-7 million popular vote win for Biden.

And he still might lose.

edit: Don't know why I wrote percent rather than million. Percentage projection is around 4% or a little above.

[ISiddiqui]

Georgia lead is 33k with 95% counted. Down from 372k lead with 78% counted last night.

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[Lathum]

Can you imagine what it is like to be in the same room as Trump right now?

[Vegas Vic]

As we wait for the final results to come in, I've been following up to see what pollster Frank Luntz has to say now that the election is over. He doesn't mince words:

“The biggest one of all is the Washington post that had — as we’re watching in Wisconsin, a one point lead — the Washington post poll just a few days ago had Joe Biden winning by 17 points,” he noted. “That’s not a mistake. That’s not an error. That’s polling malpractice, and you have to go to tremendous lengths to be able to get something that wrong so close to the election.”

Luntz went on to say, “The fact is the published polling was so wrong, and not just for presidents, but for House races, for the Senate races."

[Arles]

Trump needs 57% of the remaining votes in AZ and they are coming from areas that slightly to strongly lean democrat. I think the call is still pretty safe.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

We tried to a several times and literally every time it was a commercial.

That was a problem on a lot of the networks. And they seemed to be sync'd up, too! Like they'd all be going to break at the same time.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

As we wait for the final results to come in, I've been following up to see what pollster Frank Luntz has to say now that the election is over. He doesn't mince words:

“The biggest one of all is the Washington post that had — as we’re watching in Wisconsin, a one point lead — the Washington post poll just a few days ago had Joe Biden winning by 17 points,” he noted. “That’s not a mistake. That’s not an error. That’s polling malpractice, and you have to go to tremendous lengths to be able to get something that wrong so close to the election.”

Luntz went on to say, “The fact is the published polling was so wrong, and not just for presidents, but for House races, for the Senate races."

I don't know if it's malpractice but it's pretty evident the polling didn't work well. Missing in 2016 is somewhat understandable. Missing in 2020 is pretty bad.

In 2024, no one will be trusting the polls.

[Edward64]

Biden winning GA will be sweet.

I'd feel as if I made a difference.

[Brian Swartz]

Good question, Edward. I simply mean that nobody wants key American institutions to function they way they are supposed to. It's one thing when they malfunction and we implement them poorly. It's another when nobody wants them to work.

Most of this board doesn't need to be convinced that Trumpists are fine with undermining our institutions. They won't see the progressive movement in that light, because they generally have never placed the value I have on some American distinctives such as the Senate, EC, certain aspects of checks and balances & separation of powers, 'originalist' constitutionality, and so forth.

For someone such as myself however, I don't see a way back. Nobody's even pretending to defend such key ideas anymore. Extremism is on the rise in many places around the world as well, and the more stable democratic nations around the world have long had a dimmer view of American distinctives than the progressive wing here does.

That's without even getting into the need for someone to take the lead in moving towards the types of global authorities and cooperation we need to deal with the challenges of the future and move away from the nation-state as a whole. There are very few nations who have the clout to do so, and from my point of view they all seem content to have humanity slide into the abyss so long as they aren't the first ones down the vortex. We'll figure this out eventually, but it'll be way too late to avoid disaster by the time we do.

[Brian Swartz]

On the polling, I'm not sure it is malpractice. It might be that polling simply can't reach everyone it needs to reach to be accurate within current techniques. I think what someone said about the Collins race in Maine was revealing - that's not far off from what happened in Wisconsin.

2016 was right on nationally and had a few states off. 2018 was also close. Cycles before that were very close. This one is not - it looks like nationally it will be off by several points and far worse than that in many highly-polled races.

I know I will be a lot less confident in the results of any poll on any subject for years. We can't say we know what the public thinks anymore. That might be a good thing, but saying they support this or that candidate/party on this or that issue ... we just don't know that anymore. There's too much uncertainty.

[JPhillips]

Now protestors in AZ demanding that they stop counting.

I'm not sure these MAGA protests are well thought out.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Now protestors in AZ demanding that they stop counting.

I'm not sure these MAGA protests are well thought out.

LOL, at least they are consistent

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Good question, Edward. I simply mean that nobody wants key American institutions to function they way they are supposed to. It's one thing when they malfunction and we implement them poorly. It's another when nobody wants them to work.

Most of this board doesn't need to be convinced that Trumpists are fine with undermining our institutions. They won't see the progressive movement in that light, because they generally have never placed the value I have on some American distinctives such as the Senate, EC, certain aspects of checks and balances & separation of powers, 'originalist' constitutionality, and so forth.

For someone such as myself however, I don't see a way back. Nobody's even pretending to defend such key ideas anymore. Extremism is on the rise in many places around the world as well, and the more stable democratic nations around the world have long had a dimmer view of American distinctives than the progressive wing here does.

That's without even getting into the need for someone to take the lead in moving towards the types of global authorities and cooperation we need to deal with the challenges of the future and move away from the nation-state as a whole. There are very few nations who have the clout to do so, and from my point of view they all seem content to have humanity slide into the abyss so long as they aren't the first ones down the vortex. We'll figure this out eventually, but it'll be way too late to avoid disaster by the time we do.

The discussion will get lost in this thread. I wouldn't mind participating in a separate thread if you are so inclined.

I messaged Nate at 538 and he said there is a 75% chance it gets to the "racism" angle and/or personal insults which is when I'll excuse myself

[ISiddiqui]

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/sta...433521665?s=19

Lol, who had that on your board?

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[Ksyrup]

Also chanting "count the votes," while in Atlanta and earlier in Detroit it was "stop the count." What a bunch of morans.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

2016 was right on nationally and had a few states off. 2018 was also close. Cycles before that were very close. This one is not - it looks like nationally it will be off by several points and far worse than that in many highly-polled races.

As it turns out, the Presidential polling this year wasn't nearly as horrible as the Senate and House projections, dumpster fires from almost every "reputable" pollster.

[Edward64]

CNN has a pic-in-a-pic during commercials showing people (wearing masks but not quite 6ft apart) processing the ballots in Atlanta at 11pm.

I'm guessing they work in shifts and do this 24 hours a day until it's all done. Appreciate their dedication.

[Ksyrup]

Someone tweeted they estimate being done counting in Atlanta by 3am.

[jbergey22]

Trump considering suing Nevada and Arizona as well!

#Trump2020JustSue

[Coffee Warlord]

Barring a complete massacre on one side or the other, this was always gonna come down to lawyers, no matter who won.

[molson]

Wall street sure likes this probable outcome more than they liked Trump's win in 2016.

[Arles]

There was a lot of Wall Street panic due to the polls showing a “blue wave” of Biden and the senate last week. Now that looks like it won’t happen so Wall Street is happy big cap gains taxes look less likely

[ISiddiqui]

Wow, now 164k lead in PA. 89% counted. Philadelphia County still at 70% counted.

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[Lathum]

CNN just showed these “patriots” outside the counting station in Arizona, but the radical left.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

CNN has a pic-in-a-pic during commercials showing people (wearing masks but not quite 6ft apart) processing the ballots in Atlanta at 11pm.

I'm guessing they work in shifts and do this 24 hours a day until it's all done. Appreciate their dedication.

Yeah not quite the same as these folks dedication but my wife a public school teacher took the day off to be a election voting poll worker. She did a 16 hour day almost on standing up with a 30 minute lunch and a 15 minute break. This is in a heavy R country so she had to some fun stories of having to deal with disruptive MAGAs.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Lathum

CNN just showed these “patriots” outside the counting station in Arizona, but the radical left.

Yeah watching that too.

[bhlloy]

Those patriots outside a counting station threatening the staff inside... in a state and county that Trump is behind and they really need them to keep counting for him to have any chance nationally. Geniuses.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Trump considering suing Nevada and Arizona as well!

#Trump2020JustSue

[kingfc22]

GA down to 28k vote difference

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Those patriots outside a counting station threatening the staff inside... in a state and county that Trump is behind and they really need them to keep counting for him to have any chance nationally. Geniuses.

Weird, where is the tear gas and rubber bullets?

[bhlloy]

The news from Maricopa County continues to be worrying for Biden... just bled about another 11k votes off the latest chunk that was processed. Not sure if that carries through the end of the count (and a decent chunk is from Pima rather than Maricopa) but I can definitely see how the math can be there for Trump to pull ahead in the next 12 hours.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

The news from Maricopa County continues to be worrying for Biden... just bled about another 11k votes off the latest chunk that was processed. Not sure if that carries through the end of the count (and a decent chunk is from Pima rather than Maricopa) but I can definitely see how the math can be there for Trump to pull ahead in the next 12 hours.

Charlie kirk was jumping up and down when last drop was over 55 percent feels last drops are going to be higher than the big city drop they doing now. Plus he said around midnight Georgia had 14k votes left with trump winning by 23k. Should check him out unless he getting bad data from counties.

[whomario]

Can someone explain to me how analysis from Exit Polls (like how many of a certain demographic voted for whome or for what reason) as a tool of analysis make any sense in a year where sooooo many people did not actually visit a polling station and those are by all accounts vastly 'different' from those that did in their preferences, reasoning and maybe even demographic ?

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I wouldn't mind participating in a separate thread if you are so inclined.

I messaged Nate at 538 and he said there is a 75% chance it gets to the "racism" angle and/or personal insults which is when I'll excuse myself

Go for it you wish - I'm not particular on what thread I discuss it in. I always assume that percentage is upwards of 90% myself.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

... but the radical left ...

... taking a well deserved rest in Portland drinking their chai latte with coconut milk.

Good thing the radical right protests are peaceful (so far).

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Go for it you wish - I'm not particular on what thread I discuss it in. I always assume that percentage is upwards of 90% myself.

With recent polling history, quite possible Nate missed some shy members here.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

Charlie kirk was jumping up and down when last drop was over 55 percent feels last drops are going to be higher than the big city drop they doing now. Plus he said around midnight Georgia had 14k votes left with trump winning by 23k. Should check him out unless he getting bad data from counties.

He's literally a Trump troll.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Good question, Edward. I simply mean that nobody wants key American institutions to function they way they are supposed to. It's one thing when they malfunction and we implement them poorly. It's another when nobody wants them to work.

But hasn't a lot of this to do with them being heavily outdated in at least a sizable number of questions/areas ? This rings to me similar to the "let's interpret 200+ year old documents based on what they actually wanted" (never mind it being a "want" for an utterly different time) school of thought re: Law.

[Ben E Lou]

Trump's lead is under under 19K in Georgia now. PA bout 164K. NC will not update again until 11/12.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Trump's lead is under under 19K in Georgia now. PA bout 164K. NC will not update again until 11/12.

Coming down to a photo finish in GA (and NV and AZ).

[bhlloy]

If I'm reading GA right though we are basically done with Atlanta and just general absentee ballots to come, so I'm not sure Biden is still favored there?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If I'm reading GA right though we are basically done with Atlanta and just general absentee ballots to come, so I'm not sure Biden is still favored there?

I think the theory is absentee ballots will favor Biden but uncertainty is how many is left.

I read somewhere (don't know accuracy or timing) there is about 25,000 ballots left to be counted, so there may not be enough for Biden. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised for a GA recount.

Momentum has swung to Trump on AZ so Trump does still have a "better-than-Wed-morning" chance to victory.