2023 NFL Regular Season Thread

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think there's a very good chance Travis will retire. Didn't he flirt with retirement last off-season?

He had been alluding to retiring earlier in the season, but I think he came out and said he was going to come back for one more season a couple months ago.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think there's a very good chance Travis will retire. Didn't he flirt with retirement last off-season?

I was of that opinion but after last night I'm not so sure. Going out on top is great, but I feel like he and Reid want to see if they can three-peat.

[Swaggs]

How close is Andy Reid to getting on the Mt. Rushmore of NFL Head Coaches?

[cuervo72]

SB era, I'd say he's already on it. 4th all-time in wins with 3 SB.

[Jon]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Andy Reid is the guy everyone thinks Shanahan is or wants him to be. The offensive gameplan in overtime with the game on the line was… chefs kiss. After struggling all game and then adjusting and pulling out that drive in OT, just really impressive and of course he has the perfect QB to pull it off as well.

Maybe it’s a sign of great coaching or a great team, but it’s incredible to me the Chiefs have now played the two biggest games of the season against teams and managed to take them completely out of their gameplan. Last week making the Ravens turn Lamar into a pocket passer has been discussed to death, but it felt like the Niners finally had what they wanted with the running game late on to ice it and decided to drop Purdy with the game on the line and run for his life because reasons?

Shanahan IS Andy Reid- of 20 years ago.

[GrantDawg]

Now I think we can see the plan that Arthur Smith gave the Falcons that got him fired:

#Steelers expected to pursue QB Ryan Tannehillhttps://t.co/tafSzg51aN

— Behind the Steel Curtain (@btsteelcurtain) February 11, 2024

[Atocep]

Tik Tok really comes through after major events. The videos on Usher, JJ Watt's hair, and everything else are absolute gold.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Jon

Shanahan IS Andy Reid- of 20 years ago.

I though I was the only one making this comparison. All of the criticism of Shanahan now is the same criticism that was made of Reid when he was with Philly. People were bitching about Reid staying with the running too long last night whereas Shanahan got crushed for abandoning the running game too soon just like Reid was years ago. I have definitely been going back and reading some of the critiques of Reid today.

My other notes from last night

- Brock Purdy impressed me last night. I don't think he is a guy that will allow the 49ers to trade McCaffery, Deebo and Kittle and sub in the Mecole Hardmans of the world and still make/win Super Bowls. But that guy can be if he is not currently a top ten QB in the NFL.

- What the hell was up with the KC center's snaps? It felt like he was rolling the ball back to Mahomes the entire second half.

- Our Super Bowl party gave up on the commercials after the 1st quarter.

- She does not need to run for President or anything like that, but Reba had a 100% approval rating among our guests. Not just for her rendition of the anthem but everything else. 68 years old?! I don't care if there has been work done.

- As far as the halftime show, I guess it was a Two America situation. Most guests went for bathroom breaks, fresh air break, food and drinks refills either before or after the show. I learned after the one in LA that a dancing area would be useful for these types of shows. It was definitely needed yesterday.

[Kodos]

I did my traditional thing that I do when I watch the game alone: I let the game go for forty minutes before starting it. Then I skipped through whatever commercials didn't quickly catch my interest, and I fast-forwarded through the entire oversize halftime show. I caught up to live sometime during the 4th quarter. Perfect!

[Jstraub]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Andy Reid is the guy everyone thinks Shanahan is or wants him to be. The offensive gameplan in overtime with the game on the line was… chefs kiss. After struggling all game and then adjusting and pulling out that drive in OT, just really impressive and of course he has the perfect QB to pull it off as well.

Maybe it’s a sign of great coaching or a great team, but it’s incredible to me the Chiefs have now played the two biggest games of the season against teams and managed to take them completely out of their gameplan. Last week making the Ravens turn Lamar into a pocket passer has been discussed to death, but it felt like the Niners finally had what they wanted with the running game late on to ice it and decided to drop Purdy with the game on the line and run for his life because reasons?

The 49ers have the best players at nearly all the positions. Yet they were outplayed by the Packers for 3 quarters, followed by the lions for 2. They squeaked by those teams. They played well enough in the SB, relative to their 2 previous playoff games, but they were going against the BEST coach and QB in the league. All that to say, with all that talent, and his previous history, I just don't see all the hype around Shanahan. Meanwhile, the Chiefs just wont a Super Bowl without a legitimate #1 wide receiver. Astounding coaching is not hard to see when it actually happens.

[Brian Swartz]

I think there's been in general way too many hot takes. When you have an overtime game in the Super Bowl, any small thing could have switched the outcome. Somebody had to win, and San Francisco never had a big lead.

[Ghost Econ]

The ball doesn't hit a foot on a punt and it's a very different game. That happens to great coaches and Ron Rivera all the same. 3-4 plays go different over 3 Super Bowls and Kyle Shanahan is 3-0 as a coach.

I mean, if a player doesn't drop a ball and players don't get dumb personal fouls last week, John Harbaugh now has as many Super Bowl wins as Andy Reid.

Plus, there were definitely some Andy Reid Eagles teams that had the most talent in the league. Her was a failure until he got Mahomes, just like Belicheck and Brady.

[Jstraub]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

The ball doesn't hit a foot on a punt and it's a very different game. That happens to great coaches and Ron Rivera all the same. 3-4 plays go different over 3 Super Bowls and Kyle Shanahan is 3-0 as a coach.

I mean, if a player doesn't drop a ball and players don't get dumb personal fouls last week, John Harbaugh now has as many Super Bowl wins as Andy Reid.

Plus, there were definitely some Andy Reid Eagles teams that had the most talent in the league. Her was a failure until he got Mahomes, just like Belicheck and Brady.

All fair points; I agree.

But I will point out... last year Shanahan called a play in the NFC championship where the Eagles best pass rusher (I believe it was Reddick) was matched up against a TE in single pass coverage. On top of that, it was a deep dropback. Rather predictable results ensued. Purdy tore a ligament in his arm and the 49ers couldn't pass rest of game. I suppose one might also blame him for the fact they didnt have anyone else left who could pass.

This year, he didn't understand the playoff overtime rules, apparently.

I mean those are some rather egregious errors for a "genius".

[Ksyrup]

I missed the second half and was deplaning/getting baggage during the end of regulation and OT so I missed all of the in-the-moment discussion of the OT rules. But I've received a flurry of articles and other updates from various sports media that tell a clear narrative - debate about 49ers taking the ball first given the different OT rules, Shanahan's explanation, then a few hours later, 49ers players say they didn't know the rules were different until they were flashed up on the screen as OT began, and then the other side - KC players say they were well aware of the rules since training camp and specifically prepared for and were included in strategy discussions in the SB, including going for 2 if SF got the ball first and scored a TD.

Clear implication in the media narrative is that at a minimum, 49er players were largely unaware of the rule change and not involved in strategy discussions, and at worst, Shanahan may not have known the rules or understood how every college team has handled this situation since OT was added to the college game. Granted, the teams aren't being handed the ball at the 25 like in college, but the strategy should still be the same - you want to know what your offense needs to do to win, so you should always want to defer and take the ball after your opponent, even if you're pretty sure because of momentum or a weak D that your opponent might score a TD.

Do we actually know what the real story is?

[miami_fan]

I don't think the players knew the rules but I don't know if that is surprising anymore. History has told us that more than a few NFL players know the OT rules at any moment. I don't think Shanahan would have engaged the players in the strategy sessions as far whether to take the ball or defer. He and his analytics staff went through the information and made the decision himself. The players just need to run the plays he calls as far as he is concerned.

I get his original thinking. Mahomes is going to score a TD so there is no need to wait for that confirmation. Shanahan is going to believe that his offense is a better matchup against the Chiefs D than the Niners defense against Mahomes.

The problem is if you believe that Mahomes is going to score a TD which means you have to score a TD, you can't kick a FG.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

He had been alluding to retiring earlier in the season, but I think he came out and said he was going to come back for one more season a couple months ago.

He'll still need a job once Taylor dumps him. Or maybe he's worried she will if he's not in a uniform anymore. In any case he has a future as a pro wrestler or MTV VJ

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

The problem is if you believe that Mahomes is going to score a TD which means you have to score a TD, you can't kick a FG.

Exactly. I thought they should have given greater consideration to going for it at the end of regulation (I think it was a 4th and 4?) because just a 1st down essentially ends the game, but definitely should have gone for it in OT because praying for a fumble or INT before KC got into FG range at least for the tie was not a good strategy.

[CrimsonFox]

I think what shanahan was thinking was that the chiefs were underplaying the entire game which they were and their D could hold them and they would run out of time.

But then magic happened.

So what is all this talk about the OT rules that changed. What changed and how did it affect things?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Exactly. I thought they should have given greater consideration to going for it at the end of regulation (I think it was a 4th and 4?) because just a 1st down essentially ends the game, but definitely should have gone for it in OT because praying for a fumble or INT before KC got into FG range at least for the tie was not a good strategy.

I was flabbergasted that KC didn't make it in for a TD at the end of regulation. It didn't make sense. And they settled for a FG. I was then worried that SF was going to go back and win it by a simple FG...which they should have. I have no idea why they did not. They had the offense to do it. Just what happened to them at the end there. Play for a FG. Easy

[RainMaker]

Is there some kind of math breakdown on why you'd want the ball 2nd in the new OT? I still feel like having the 3rd possession outweighs the advantages having the ball 2nd. Like if both teams kick field goals or punt, you are in a much better spot.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

The ball doesn't hit a foot on a punt and it's a very different game. That happens to great coaches and Ron Rivera all the same. 3-4 plays go different over 3 Super Bowls and Kyle Shanahan is 3-0 as a coach.

I mean, if a player doesn't drop a ball and players don't get dumb personal fouls last week, John Harbaugh now has as many Super Bowl wins as Andy Reid.

Plus, there were definitely some Andy Reid Eagles teams that had the most talent in the league. Her was a failure until he got Mahomes, just like Belicheck and Brady.

Not to mention a blocked extra point. I know KC is known for special teams but that's still a very unlikely event that cost them dearly.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Okay, the Greenlaw injury is pretty brutal

I recorded the game and watched as live Monday night. The first 49ers D series Greenlaw made two plays and went nuts each time….

I thought he’s too pumped up and KC could maybe take advantage of that: wonder if that had anything to do with it - he was just too intense and put too much stress through the leg pushing off.

[Danny]

That triple scoop of pre workout did him in.

[CrimsonFox]

was greenlaw the guy that tore his achilles running onto the field?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Is there some kind of math breakdown on why you'd want the ball 2nd in the new OT? I still feel like having the 3rd possession outweighs the advantages having the ball 2nd. Like if both teams kick field goals or punt, you are in a much better spot.

I think most teams are not looking to get to a 3rd possession. I don't know what SF would have done in that scenario, but KC said they had already decided to go for 2 on their TD had SF scored a TD on the first possession.

The simple fact is, if your opponent does not score, then you're playing to get to the 30-35 yard line to win. SF had no idea on their 4th down whether kicking a FG was the right decision. Had KC had the ball first and scored the TD, then that decision is made for you - you have to go for it. Had KC kicked a FG, then you know you've got a FG to tie at worst.

Having more information to inform your decision is almost always the right strategic move.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

was greenlaw the guy that tore his achilles running onto the field?

Yup. I’ve done the same injury playing football (soccer) on astroturf, and can kinda see how his intensity could have made it happen - he was very low as if almost powering onto the field

At the same time it might have been weak and strained already, just waiting to snap, and the over-hypedness might just be a coincidence

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Yup. I’ve done the same injury playing football (soccer) on astroturf, and can kinda see how his intensity could have made it happen - he was very low as if almost powering onto the field

At the same time it might have been weak and strained already, just waiting to snap, and the over-hypedness might just be a coincidence

I complertely did a doubletake when it happened....i'm like...did that guy just do that just running onto the field? lol i laughed.

I think you're right. He was all coked up and spazzy

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I think most teams are not looking to get to a 3rd possession. I don't know what SF would have done in that scenario, but KC said they had already decided to go for 2 on their TD had SF scored a TD on the first possession.

The simple fact is, if your opponent does not score, then you're playing to get to the 30-35 yard line to win. SF had no idea on their 4th down whether kicking a FG was the right decision. Had KC had the ball first and scored the TD, then that decision is made for you - you have to go for it. Had KC kicked a FG, then you know you've got a FG to tie at worst.

Having more information to inform your decision is almost always the right strategic move.

That's what I figure. I was trying to decide what I'd do in the spot. Just curious if any analytics nerds might have done the math and decided what would be most advantageous.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

He'll still need a job once Taylor dumps him. Or maybe he's worried she will if he's not in a uniform anymore. In any case he has a future as a pro wrestler or MTV VJ

Kelce will be on someone's pregame show or on a rotation at the NFL network guaranteed.

[CrimsonFox]

Why didn't anyone tell me that SpongeBob and Patrick announced the game on nickelodeon

[Ksyrup]

I would definitely trade Andrew Whitworth for a Kelse. Or a mildew stain.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I think most teams are not looking to get to a 3rd possession. I don't know what SF would have done in that scenario, but KC said they had already decided to go for 2 on their TD had SF scored a TD on the first possession.

The simple fact is, if your opponent does not score, then you're playing to get to the 30-35 yard line to win. SF had no idea on their 4th down whether kicking a FG was the right decision. Had KC had the ball first and scored the TD, then that decision is made for you - you have to go for it. Had KC kicked a FG, then you know you've got a FG to tie at worst.

Having more information to inform your decision is almost always the right strategic move.

I have to go back to the Shanahan quote again.

Prior to the game, Shanahan said he and his analytics staff discussed overtime possibilities and decided that with Patrick Mahomes on the other side, it would be best to take the ball first because that also would mean the Niners got the ball third in the event both teams matched points on their opening possessions and overtime progressed to sudden death.

Shanahan said he felt good about the game he and his staff coached.

"What I can't live with is when I do stuff that I didn't plan on doing or that I didn't do, and second-guess myself," Shanahan said. "I'm proud of what we did today as a coaching staff and as players in terms of we worked and we did everything we planned on doing. We just didn't get it done."

I missed the with Mahomes on the other sideline part the first time I read it. Those are not the words of a man who was expecting Mahomes to fumble or throw an INT. That is a man who when he was at the Niners' facility coming up with his plans on the off week had zero confidence his defense would stop Mahomes in OT. Why he then decided to trust his defense to hold Mahomes to just a FG during the game is a mystery. Maybe he was influenced by the reaction to Dan Campbell's decisions to go for it on 4th down in the NFC championship and did the opposite.

[Ksyrup]

Yeah I don't get it. The only reason KC didn't win in regulation is because they ran out of time. Yes, they matched FGs, but had KC not wasted 20 seconds with about 40 seconds left (while Romo was yelling at them to spike it, then they ran a play where Mahomes threw it OOB), they would have had enough time to score a TD. It's not like he should have been confident in kicking a FG because his D was likely to hold Mahomes to a FG like he did in regulation. They were lucky to get to OT.

[Jon]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Yup. I’ve done the same injury playing football (soccer) on astroturf, and can kinda see how his intensity could have made it happen - he was very low as if almost powering onto the field

At the same time it might have been weak and strained already, just waiting to snap, and the over-hypedness might just be a coincidence

It was weak and strained already. He had been dealing with achilles issues all season, missing several games in the latter half of the season.

[Ksyrup]

I still can't get over the 3rd possession thing. I read Bill Barnwell saying this: "The value of getting the ball first is to get in position to have the third possession of overtime, where you can win with a field goal."

This completely ignores that the value of having the ball second is to get in position ... where you can win with a field goal. I find it hard to believe that you'd make a strategic move that requires both teams to either not score or score the exact same way in the first 2 possessions, when you have 3 different ways to win if you get the ball second - KC doesn't score and you do, KC scores a FG and you score a TD, or KC scores a TD and you score a TD and either go for 2 to win or they missed the XP and you kick an XP to win. Don't those odds trump holding out hope for even getting to a 3rd possession? It's the Super Bowl - this isn't the Giants versus Vikings where neither team might even get a 1st down in OT.

I can't believe the lengths people go to justify bad decision making.

[Danny]

49ers' Kyle Shanahan asked staff to review OT rules with players - ESPN

Thats the problem with analytics. They dont take into account the Tom Brady's or Patrick Mahomes'.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I still can't get over the 3rd possession thing. I read Bill Barnwell saying this: "The value of getting the ball first is to get in position to have the third possession of overtime, where you can win with a field goal."

This completely ignores that the value of having the ball second is to get in position ... where you can win with a field goal. I find it hard to believe that you'd make a strategic move that requires both teams to either not score or score the exact same way in the first 2 possessions, when you have 3 different ways to win if you get the ball second - KC doesn't score and you do, KC scores a FG and you score a TD, or KC scores a TD and you score a TD and either go for 2 to win or they missed the XP and you kick an XP to win. Don't those odds trump holding out hope for even getting to a 3rd possession? It's the Super Bowl - this isn't the Giants versus Vikings where neither team might even get a 1st down in OT.

I can't believe the lengths people go to justify bad decision making.

You could also say that the value of having the ball first is the offense gets to establish what the other team has to do. If they had did anything but give Chris Jones a free path to Purdy. Purdy might have thrown a TD pass on the first possession of OT.

I don't know. We just spent the better part of the last 20 years assuming Brady was going to score whatever he needed to score in those situations and teams need to act accordingly. I assumed Mahomes was going to score a TD every time he got the ball in OT on Sunday whether he was getting the ball first or second. If Shanahan is making that assumption, I understand getting the ball first and counting on the third possession for sudden death. That line of thinking should have compelled him to go for it on 4th down but he thought that was a step too far.

I know Shanahan is now saying this decision was made prior to the playoffs and if it were a more high scoring game, he might have gone second. I don't. I think he goes second if it was Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen on the other sideline. But that Mahomes guy? Yeah the only way he was losing in OT on Sunday was if the Niners scored on that precious third possession and he was on the sidelines.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't buy that it is that straightforward. Yes, the opponents are good teams but they aren't scoring all the time.

- 11 of 24 possessions in the game did not result in points. Only 4 of them, including the final one, resulted in a touchdown. Given that, having the third possession is not nothing, and there's a reasonable expectation for stopping the other team with a field goal at most.

Kansas City had a good final drive of course, but there was a 4th down and a 3rd-and-6 in there. San Francisco definitely had chances. I don't completely buy the 'it's Brady/Mahomes/whoever so they are going to score'. This was not a shootout kind of game - some are, this wasn't. Those players don't always always succeed - nobody always succeeds or close to it. The fact that they succeed more often than most QBs tends to make us forget that they fail to score on late-game drives quite a bit as well. Brady threw late-game picks in close playoff games. It happens.

Examples:

- In the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay, Mahomes' team scored zero touchdowns. That wasn't his fault IMO, but it's still a fact.

From Kansas City losses this year:

- Week 1: last points against Detroit came with 12 minutes left
- Week 8: Didn't score in the second half
- Week 11: Didn't score in the second half again
- Week 13: Last points came at the start of the 4th quarter (bad no-call on PI late, but that stuff happens)
- Week 14: The infamous offensive offsides call, but scoring 17 points at home against a defense with a number of key injuries involves more than that.
- Week 16: A late TD drive did happen, but they were down two scores at that point and had 7 points the whole rest of the game.

Mahomes was the QB for all of these games. He's an incredible player. He also is nowhere close to infallible - he's a human being and other players on the team matter.

[Danny]

I disagree. Tom Brady is 7-2 in superbowls. Both losses Eli scored with under a minute left to win the game. Id say Brady has never not come through to win or put his team in a position to win. Some guys just have it when it counts. I dont think using regular season games is relevant in regards to Brady and now Mahomes in the biggest games at the end.

[CrimsonFox]

Let me ask this. If the chiefs failed to score at all and failed to get a FG etc or even were forcevd to punt. Would the game have been over? Even if there were like say 3 minutes on the clock?

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Danny

Tom Brady is 7-2 in superbowls. Both losses Eli scored with under a minute left to win the game. Id say Brady has never not come through to win or put his team in a position to win. Some guys just have it when it counts. I dont think using regular season games is relevant in regards to Brady and now Mahomes in the biggest games at the end.

How about games earlier in the playoffs? I think regular-season games are absolutely relevant. Players don't magically become different in the playoffs, but certainly earlier rounds of the playoffs should be relevant as you can't win the Super Bowl if you don't win the earlier rounds, right?

Brady threw multiple interceptions in 11 playoff games. His teams were 7-4 in those games, but at least in some cases (3-1 in 3-INT games) it's basically hero worship IMO to say they won because of Brady. There are of course many, many times that did happen, but there are also times they won in spite of him. This isn't attacking Brady of course - it's just the nature of the sport and could be said about any player.

The losses were 2016 against Denver and 2013 against Baltimore in the AFC Championship, and a couple of earlier rounds. I don't think it makes any sense to give a player credit for their record in Super Bowl games without considering why they didn't get to the Super Bowl some of the time.

Nobody, but nobody has ever always come through. That's a unicorn fantasy type of player. They have never and will never exist; they are all human and they all make mistakes.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Crimson Fox

Let me ask this. If the chiefs failed to score at all and failed to get a FG etc or even were forced to punt. Would the game have been over? Even if there were like say 3 minutes on the clock?

Yes. The game would have been over and Kansas City would have lost.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Yes. The game would have been over and Kansas City would have lost.

THAT'S THE DUMBEST FUCKING SHIT I'VE EVER HEARD!

[Brian Swartz]

The previous version might top it, depending on your perspective; if the first team to get the ball scored a touchdown, the other team never even got the ball, it was just over at that point.

[Brian Swartz]

The number of Lions fans I'm seeing posting stuff roughly 'we're the real NFL champs because we beat the Chiefs in Week 1' is so dumb. People who I know are otherwhise reasonable and sensible.

Sports fandom sometimes makes people very stupid.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Mahomes was the QB for all of these games. He's an incredible player. He also is nowhere close to infallible - he's a human being and other players on the team matter.

I am just going by the words Shanahan said. That is the fascinating point of the discussion. Everything Shanahan has said and did suggest that HE saw Mahomes as infallible despite all evidence to the contrary.

Here is how I envision the process. Prior to the playoffs, Shanahan and his staff go through all the overtime scenarios in a sterile environment where a decision is made based on data and the philosophy of the team. It makes sense to me given what we have seen from him as a HC, Shanahan trusts his playcalling and his offense to score a TD on that first possession of overtime. I don't think he is expecting a FG from his offense and would begrudgingly take the FG as a last resort. He has not shown a great deal of trust in Steve Wilks and the defense all season and does not trust that the defense can stop the opponents' offense on the second possession. I don't think he trusts his defense to hold the offense to a FG but will happily take it if it happens. Finally he trusts his playcalling and his offense to get a TD on the third possession but will settle for a FG to win the game. I can't say for sure if that is the generic decision or one that was opponent specific. The way Shanahan has spoken about it, I get the impression there had to be significant factors on gameday to force him to take the ball second. Suggestions have been made by Shanahan and John Lynch after the game that if it were a more high scoring game that might have qualified as a significant factor.

However, based on what he said after the game, Mahomes being on the other sideline was the significant factor that made Shanahan stick with the decision made prior to the playoffs in this game. Despite all of the game day evidence to the contrary, IMO he decided that Mahomes was going to be infallible in the overtime which is why that third possession was so important for him. He wanted two possesions to Mahomes's one. I don't think Allen, Jackson Jordan Love, or Jared Goff are going to be the overriding factor in that same way.

[Ksyrup]

The problem with that line of reasoning is that he didn't follow through on the strategy as it regards his offense. If he really thought Mahomes is so great that he wasn't stopping him from scoring a TD in OT, then there is absolutely no excuse for kicking a FG on 4th and 4 from the 9. It's not like it was 4th and 9 from the 30 and you have to scrap the original plan and just take the FG - 4th and 4 from the 9 is a pretty good set up if you want to go for it to ensure you score a TD.

So, he completely eviscerated the entire strategy of taking the ball first by kicking a FG in a manageable 4th down situation. Presumably because he was scared that if they failed, got no points, and then KC ended up kicking a 47 yarder to win because his D actually was able to hold KC, he'd be roasted in the media. That's what it looks like to me. And if that's the case, then he mismanaged OT, either way you look at it.

[QuikSand]

I'm fine with the decision and the reasoning. Not saying they're flawless, just that I think it's sound reasoning.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The problem with that line of reasoning is that he didn't follow through on the strategy as it regards his offense. If he really thought Mahomes is so great that he wasn't stopping him from scoring a TD in OT, then there is absolutely no excuse for kicking a FG on 4th and 4 from the 9. It's not like it was 4th and 9 from the 30 and you have to scrap the original plan and just take the FG - 4th and 4 from the 9 is a pretty good set up if you want to go for it to ensure you score a TD.

So, he completely eviscerated the entire strategy of taking the ball first by kicking a FG in a manageable 4th down situation. Presumably because he was scared that if they failed, got no points, and then KC ended up kicking a 47 yarder to win because his D actually was able to hold KC, he'd be roasted in the media. That's what it looks like to me. And if that's the case, then he mismanaged OT, either way you look at it.

I agree. He became just like 99.9 percent of NFL head coaches in history in that moment. He was not going willing to be ridiculed like his opposite number in the NFC championship game or the guy that just got fired from the Chargers for not just taking the points and/or being overly aggressive going for it on 4th down because it is the Super Bowl and not some random regular season game. But if we are going with all the ifs, we also have to consider that if Chris Jones is not left unblocked, Purdy hits the wide open receiver and everything else plays out the same once the Chiefs have the ball, then Shanahan gets his dream scenario. I know Andy Reid the Chiefs would have gone for two, maybe the Niners would have done the same.

Hopefully we get a ton of overtime playoff games to get a larger data set of what NFL coaches would and should do under these new rules. Hopefully it is not just limited to games in domes so that the weather conditions, etc are also factors that have to be considered. My initial inclination would be to play defense first. I would like to know what I actually need as opposed being the one to set the requirement. However, if you told me I had Mahomes with Andy Reid calling plays or prime Brady with prime McDaniels calling plays combo on offense along with a Spagnuolo led or Belichick led defense, I might take the ball first and challenge the other team to keep up.

[Ksyrup]

That's certainly fair, and I'm guessing the Chris Jones scheme weighed heavily on Shanahan's decision. I'll admit I didn't watch SF closely enough this year to understand what level of control he gave Purdy - I mean, I'm assuming he didn't (or maybe can't) have the level of knowledge that Manning/Brady had and the authority to call his own audibles. So maybe it came down to Shanahan just not trusting Purdy as much as he needed to so that the 3rd down play wasn't repeated. But I think it also suggests (to me, anyway) that Shanahan wasn't confident enough in his own playcalling to think he could out-scheme Spagnuolo when it mattered.

Maybe both of those things are true. But then, you should factor that in when determining your strategy. And I keep coming back to... 4th and 4 from the 9. That's a pretty good set-up for a "do or die" 4th down attempt in line with your overall OT strategy.