POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Biden needs to stay in the White House and STFU until after November 5. For the better part of the last five months, he's been the gift that keeps on giving to the Trump campaign. It's almost like he's become an accidental surrogate for Trump every time he shuffles up to a podium and opens his mouth.

Agreed. I dont know what Joe was even doing with Voto Latino on the night of Harris's big speech. Just watch the speech and relax on the beach until the election. He completely ruined her big night.

[RainMaker]

The guy has said "we beat Medicare" and that he saw videos of beheaded babies. He's called Zelensky Putin and called Harris Trump. It's sad the state he is in but the people running covered that up for years and they sort of have to suffer the consequences for their actions now.

[GrantDawg]

Yes. But it doesn't change what he said here, which is the discussion.

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[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Why does it matter? Trunp says 10 things worse than this every single day. It pissed his supporters off, but who cares? A significant portion of his supporters are trash and dems act like MAGA is some boogeyman they're afraid will be summoned.

I think it matters because there is overlap between the people who think Biden is referring to them and ones who were apathetic enough they are unlikely to make the low effort to vote. Won't change anyone's vote but could slightly help R turnout.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I think it matters because there is overlap between the people who think Biden is referring to them and ones who were apathetic enough they are unlikely to make the low effort to vote. Won't change anyone's vote but could slightly help R turnout.

It's a group that lives in a perpetual state of anger. If it wasn't this, it would be something else. The people that are pissed their M&Ms aren't sexy anymore, that Mr. Potato head is just Potato head, that Star Wars was going to have a female director, claimed LEGO was grooming kids, that Starbucks holiday cups weren't Christmas enough, tan suits, ice cream, bicycles, etc.

Dems need to stop walking on eggshells and fearing MAGA. They're not scary. If Trump wins this election this won't be one of the top 100 reasons why it happened.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I get the demographic piece, but I just checked, and only 16ish% of black people smoke, and while a huge percentage DO smoke menthols, we're still talking about a pretty tiny demographic that would care. (And now I'm gonna go check my Pandora profile to figure out if they even know I'm black....)

In the correct State, a relatively small number of votes (even 10K) could easily determine the entire election.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

You talk a lot of shit for a nutjob behind a keyboard. Wish you'd give that a try around people that are actually worth a damn some time. Some of that "trash" might give you a badly needed education.

Oh man, there you go projecting again, Jon.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by dubb93

hxxps://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cj3me0r0pldo

This is a video of Biden's comments. He rambles but he does say "Donald Trump......The only garbage I see floating out there are his supporters."

But that's not what he actually says, even in the video you posted. He says "is" and not "are." Now, the comments are full of stumbles and stuff, so nothing is ironclad, but... it makes a difference. You cannot hear a difference between "supporter's" and "supporters" but there is an audible difference between "is" and "are" that structurally should settle which word it was.

I recognize it's already over, and it's been grabbed by the zeitgeist. But what really happened does feel like it ought to count for something.

Scott Adams has been really big on this, calling certain things a "hoax" in a specific way - when the story doesn't match the underlying action/statement, for political reasons. And in my view, he's right on a couple high profile examples:

-the video of Trump "mocking a disabled reporter" was him making a crude gesture that he used to do regularly, mocking stupid/indecisive people in general... pretty low class for a high office aspirant, but it honestly wasn't mean-spirited toward the disabled

-the quote about "very fine people on both sides" has been absorbed as pro-Nazi but it was spoken (by Trump) in reference to the people pre-demonstration who were in C'Ville to debate whether a confederate statue should remain on display, not on the race-tinged demonstrations that happened in the days afterward

Adams is, presumably, too deeply red-pilled to call balls and strikes fairly at this point, as he has recognized how powerful and lucrative the MAGA grift is for articulate and shifty people. But given the full evidence, and without the potential to affect a close election, and I think he'd see it the same way.

It was an unwise choice of words, delivered poorly, but Biden was genuinely saying that the only garbage was Trump's supporter's garbage. Not the Trump supporters.

[Front Office Midget]

Neo-Fash rally at Madison Square Garden with plenty of objectionable content?

That's the type of low-hanging fruit that the Dems can't help but screw up by carting out Biden and have him say something worse.

Hopefully people will still remember to vote for Kamala Harris due to the Bush and Cheney endorsements (lol). Rough campaign they've run.

It's a shame because I think she would turn out to be a decent President but it's hard to overcome themselves to get elected.

[JPhillips]

Kamala has run a better campaign than any other incumbent party in the developed world.

[JPhillips]

dola

I know I've said it before, but it's just shocking how quickly the GOP has become anti-vax.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dola

I know I've said it before, but it's just shocking how quickly the GOP has become anti-vax.

My father being one of them. I was just visiting and multiple times they scoffed at anything Moderna. When I asked it was just "we don't like Moderna" and "they put stuff they shouldn't in vaccines" and bragged about how many vaccines they aren't planning to take and how they've managed to get this far in life without them (in spite of being vaccinated for everything in the air force). I asked he and his wife if they were vaccinated for small pox when they were young? They were both like 'yeah'. Then asked, 'were you?" "Nope." "Why not, you don't hear about it?" "Because it had been eradicated with vaccines." "Oh. Well, good."



Of course, it doesn't change anything. They need to keep their 'cred' up.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Kamala has run a better campaign than any other incumbent party in the developed world.

lol

[Atocep]

Take a shot every time Trump calls Americans who don't support him “garbage." pic.twitter.com/4yp9O4JUSQ

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 31, 2024

[Edward64]

Who would the Israelis and Palestinians prefer? For the MI progressives, in this vote for one or the other, vote with the Palestinians.

How the US election could impact the Middle East

As America prepares to vote, the Israeli leader has not hidden his appreciation for the Republican candidate - and polls suggest he’s not alone.

Around two-thirds of Israelis would prefer to see Trump back in the White House, according to recent surveys.

Less than 20% appear to want Kamala Harris to win. According to one poll, that drops to just 1% among Mr Netanyahu’s own supporters.

But many Palestinians see little hope in either candidate.

“The overall estimation is that the Democrats are bad, but if Trump is elected it’ll be even worse,” said Mustafa Barghouti, a respected Palestinian analyst and politician in the occupied West Bank.

“The main difference is that Kamala Harris will be more sensitive to the shift in American public opinion, and that means more in favour of a ceasefire.”

[GrantDawg]

Georgia turnout in early voting is record high. Sounds great, till you hear the highest turnouts have been in the rural counties that are going to go 85-90% Trump. It has always been likely that Georgia is going Red, but it looks like it might be solid red. It is a bad sign if that trend continues in the other swing states.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

lol

What incumbent party has performed better?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Georgia turnout in early voting is record high. Sounds great, till you hear the highest turnouts have been in the rural counties that are going to go 85-90% Trump. It has always been likely that Georgia is going Red, but it looks like it might be solid red. It is a bad sign if that trend continues in the other swing states.

Trumps support has a hard ceiling. I suspect these aren’t new voters but people who are voting early instead of Election Day. This election has always been about turn out for the dems.

[Ben E Lou]

I don’t think anyone can read much in either direction regarding R early-vote turnout. Clearly they were told to vote early this time, when in the past they were told to vote on Election Day. And it’s next to impossible to quantify how many will not listen to the call to vote early this time. There’s definitely a contingent that believes—no matter what Trump or anyone else says—the only right way to vote is in person on Election Day.

[Ksyrup]

I know the campaign can't make this direct appeal, but all of these peripheral third-party organizations surely could - why hasn't anyone appealed to the middle of the country dissatisfied with both candidates and afraid/unwilling to vote for Harris for whatever reason by pointing out the GOP's Congressional advantage and that the best way to ensure that very little happens is a split government?

Put Harris in the WH to ensure sanity and, at worst, some continuity and save us from the craziness of Trump and Project 2025, and when the GOP takes one or both the House and Senate as is predicted, she will effectively be blocked from doing a lot of the things a "radical liberal" would want to do. Bring Admiral Stockdale out of the grave for a VOTE GRIDLOCK! campaign.

And on the flipside, if Trump wins, that is a decent signal the GOP may control all 3, and you people in the middle know that's a bad outcome.

I guess that's too in the weeds and predicated on certain dominoes falling, but the math suggests there's almost no chance the Dems take the WH + House + Senate, so the liberal agenda will be unable to make any real change, but the flipside scenario could happen, and that should scare a lot of centrists, even right-leaning ones.

[Ben E Lou]

A friend of mine from the conservative Evangelical world has been making essentially that exact argument in a micro sense for a while now regarding abortion, telling anyone who’ll listen that it’s ok to vote for Harris (and iirc he was saying this back when Biden was still the candidate) even if you’re pro-life because there’s so little that she can do to implement her beliefs in that arena.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Trumps support has a hard ceiling. I suspect these aren’t new voters but people who are voting early instead of Election Day. This election has always been about turn out for the dems.

I think it's about turnout for both sides. I don't think that hard ceiling is as low as you describe. Remember that more people - by % of eligible voters not just by number - voted Trump in '20 than in '16. Early voting is definitely something that skewed Democrat last time around.

Agree with Ben that we don't really know what it means yet, but I wouldn't dismiss it that readily.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

A friend of mine from the conservative Evangelical world ...

I have an Evangelical friend. We have breakfast 2-3 times a year and talk about life and politics. Booked breakfast next Sat after elections to chat.

Hope we have a declared (and accepted) winner by then

[Ksyrup]

The reason I think we're screwed is that I have been seeing the same types of voters interviewed on national news for months - It's many types of people, but I'm going to focus on the minority voter who looks past all of Trump's issues to focus solely on the economy. It's pretty consistent. Whether it's an A-A voter interviewed shortly after Trump made infammatory comments about "black jobs" or a PR voter interviewed in the aftermatch of this recent rally.

There's two things with this that strike me - the economy is not that bad, especially considering we've come out of a pandemic and when compared to other similar nations. I know people don't want to hear that, but prices rise, and will continue to rise, inflation or not. This is from an Atlantic article in July:

When inflation was at its worst, in late 2021 and 2022, prices were rising too fast for workers’ pay to keep up. Over the course of 2023, however, the rate of inflation plummeted while wages kept rising. According to calculations by the economist Arindrajit Dube, prices rose about 20 percent from the beginning of the pandemic to the end of 2023—but the median worker’s hourly wages had increased by more than 26 percent. In other words, a dollar in 2024 might not go as far as a dollar in 2019, but today the average worker has so many more dollars that they can afford a higher quality of life.

People have short memories and also don't want to see the truth, IMO. Things sucked really bad a couple of years ago, and they were much better 6-8 years ago, but they seem perfectly willing to ignore (a) the pandemic or (b) the reality of the last 18 months or so. It's maddening.

The other issue is this ridiculous idea that Donald Trump is a savvy business genius. I saw some comments from a producer of The Apprentice apologizing for perpetuating Trump's image as a business genius because none of it was true, of course. But time and time again, people being interviewed simply say, "the economy sucks and Trump has the business acumen to fix it." And neither of those things are true!

[cartman]

so Trump said he will protect women, and I quote "Well, I’m going to do it, whether the women like it or not" Sure fits in his pattern of doing things whether the women liked it or not.

[Ksyrup]

On the economy, here's this as well from the WSJ:

With another solid performance in the third quarter, the U.S. has grown 2.7% over the past year. It is outrunning every other major developed economy, not to mention its own historical growth rate. More impressive than the rate of growth is its quality. This growth didn’t come solely from using up finite supplies of labor and other resources, which could fuel inflation. Instead, it came from making people and businesses more productive.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

There's two things with this that strike me - the economy is not that bad, especially considering we've come out of a pandemic and when compared to other similar nations. I know people don't want to hear that, but prices rise, and will continue to rise, inflation or not. This is from an Atlantic article in July:

re: inflation and the quote.

Don't have the stats but don't think wages have kept up with housing/rent. And I'm guessing not for autos either (other than for the budget models), nor for colleges.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

re: inflation and the quote.

Don't have the stats but don't think wages have kept up with housing/rent. And I'm guessing not for autos either (other than for the budget models), nor for colleges.

None of which the president controls yet gullible morons will pick Trump despite all the warning signs because he tells them he will end income tax through tariffs and they believe him instead of the 23 nobel prize winning economists.

[Lathum]

Mike Johnson walking back his comments about ending Obamacare. I guess someone told him tens of millio0ns of GOP supporters depend on it. What is going to be funny is when Trump at his next rally says they are going to end it.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Edward64

re: inflation and the quote.

Don't have the stats but don't think wages have kept up with housing/rent. And I'm guessing not for autos either (other than for the budget models), nor for colleges.

So the argument is vote for the slumlord who wants to cut regulation and worker protections, stop the proliferation of American electronic vehicles, and close the Department of Education?

The fact centrists are this dumb is astounding.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

So the argument is vote for the slumlord who wants to cut regulation and worker protections, stop the proliferation of American electronic vehicles, and close the Department of Education?

The fact centrists are this dumb is astounding.

Nope. Just stating the Atlantic quote does not tell the full story re: inflation. Wages may have kept up with some part of the economy, but don't think it has for housing/rent, autos and colleges.

[GrantDawg]

And people do NOT pay attention to politics. People pay attention to there check book. When something affects that negatively, they blame whoever is in charge, whether that is fair or not. People bring home more money and can do less with it. I know. I am people.

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[Kodos]

I am strong
I am invincible

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

What incumbent party has performed better?

Our neighbors to the north and south in recent elections.

[Atocep]

Elon's PAC was subcontracting out his door canvassing operation. The company doing it had people sign NDA's and initially didn't tell people being hired that they would be canvassing for Trump. They also set benchmarks of 1000 doors per week and 17-22% engagement. If those metrics weren't met the employees would have to pay for their own lodging and flights home.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Our neighbors to the north and south in recent elections.

The most recent poll of Canada has the conservatives up 2-1 over the liberals. Everyone is expecting Trudeau to get crushed next year.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Just stating the Atlantic quote does not tell the full story re: inflation. Wages may have kept up with some part of the economy, but don't think it has for housing/rent, autos and colleges.

This. Most of it isn't Biden's/Democrats fault. They're still going to get blamed for it by many voters. That's the way it works, just like the 'fierce urgency of now' when Obama was elected. No Republican ever would have won in 2008, and the main reason for that is the economy was perceived to be bad (it was).

When a sizable minority of voters literally can't name the three branches of government, you can't expect a majority of them to be sophisticated enough to grasp what the true economic picture is, the causes of such, who to blame for it, etc. This is part of the 'price of freedom'. If you want democracy, this is part of the price you pay. Stupid questions, stupid answers, stupid prizes, and all the rest.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

None of which the president controls yet gullible morons will pick Trump despite all the warning signs because he tells them he will end income tax through tariffs and they believe him instead of the 23 nobel prize winning economists.

Trump's plan is comically bad but the idea the President doesn't have any options is silly (even Kamala is running on some vague plans to reduce prices).

Antitrust would be the easiest method to break up all the monopolies which is a big reason why prices have risen. A powerful FTC to target companies colluding to reduce pay and increase prices helps too. No need to make new laws for this method either, just enforce the one's on the books. And if you want to get into laws, restrictions on foreign ownership of property/land and raising the minimum wage are quite popular.

Then you have opening the market up to bring prices down. Chinese companies make incredibly cheap electric cars that would help adoption in this country immensely. But American car companies want to sell big trucks and luxury sedans so we have to ban the cheap stuff in an anti-capitalist move. You can do something similar with prescription drugs and increase the supply of doctors to bring health care costs down dramatically.

No silver bullet but there are a lot of little ways to hit it. She can't run on them or implement them because of her corporate donors. Trump's ideas are of a 5th grade understanding of economics, but at least he's offering something to people struggling instead of telling them that they are actually doing good and just don't appreciate it.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The most recent poll of Canada has the conservatives up 2-1 over the liberals. Everyone is expecting Trudeau to get crushed next year.

Canadian, can confirm. Liberal party is about to get obliterated. 3.2% annual population growth (USA is around 1.1%) which is 99% due to immigration is their downfall. Housing crisis, health care crisis, all compounded by about 1.2 million more people in the country per year. 42 mil total population so you can imagine how this can effect things. Youth unemployment is 15% because they are competing against so many newcomers.

[PilotMan]

If anyone is curious as to the direction that the country is heading with the Rs in charge they only need to look to Mexico. A country with a comically weak central government that is held hostage financially by an extremely lucrative drug trade that benefits local politicians and the economy by bringing in tons of cash. The state level reps are bought and paid for my local interests, and they dictate the terms to the central government.

We'll likely see the rise of local 'warlords' and militias in the US to the extent that they lay 'claim' to wide swaths of land. The state will look the other way, and the federal government will fail to both exercise its power and argue about whether or not they can actually do anything to stop it.



Russia will seek to have these separatists declared the true patriots, and have them protected at the international level, while seeking to supply them and act as the propaganda arms. If the US aggressively challenges them, we'll be called 'non-democratic' and no better than any other country that seeks to 'muzzle free speech'.



This will continue to fracture the federal system, state level forces will work in conjunction and try and look out for the bulk of the population, but will lose control if they cannot comply with separatists. The rise of regional skirmishes and border disputes will happen.



This won't seem like a problem for most of the US where status quo will feel almost normal, but it will be very obvious that it's not the world we grew up with, and foreign forces will continue to work to destabilize the country from within.



This feels very possible, and remains my impression, of where the country heads to as the central government continues to weaken and cede power to the states, and leaders take charge who are willingly giving that away.

[JPhillips]

lol

Deb Fischer's closing ad features video of New England, not Nebraska.

Someone googled NE town.

[Edward64]

Interesting take on PA but no idea how valid the conclusion is.

MAGA Bros Are Freaking Out Because So Many Women Are Voting

“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster,” tweeted Mike Cernovich on Wednesday. “Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over.”

Cernovich is a longtime far right gadfly and commentator with a massive online following.

When a follower questioned his assessment, Cernovich pointed out that conservative organizer Charlie Kirk, who he called “one of the most significant [get out the vote] activists in the country,” had also raised the alarm.

“Early vote has been disproportionately female,” tweeted Kirk earlier Wednesday. “If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.”

[Thomkal]

lawyer Ken Cheseboro, architect of the fake electors plot, got his license suspended and likely will be disbarred in NY. Happy Halloween!

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Interesting take on PA but no idea how valid the conclusion is.

MAGA Bros Are Freaking Out Because So Many Women Are Voting

Is there any way we can have like a early Superbowl in between a live lingerie pillow fight broadcast all day on election day?

[Ksyrup]

Since it's coming from the far right social media types, I can only assume it's being done to try to push reticent male voters to vote on Tuesday by planting a potentially false bit of news that Trump is in danger of losing unless men save the day, just to ring as many votes out of a dependable demographic as possible.

It's an easily targetable demographic since it's true that men favor Trump, so arguing women are going to push Harris to victory rings true even if they have no hard evidence to support the claim.

[cuervo72]

It's Going to Take a Constant Fight to Preserve the Historical Record

The National Archives museum, under Biden-appointed U.S. Archivist Colleen Shogan, has been working to reshape its narrative of American history in order to make white conservatives more comfortable. The Journal describes a pattern of efforts over time to shape exhibits to better fit right-wing narratives of U.S. history. The museum has removed references to Martin Luther King Jr., Japanese internment, Native Americans, union organizers, and birth control, because presenting American history honestly would make Republicans upset.

The changes are remarkable. A photo of King was replaced with one of Richard Nixon meeting Elvis Presley. A “proposed exhibit exploring changes to the Constitution since 1787,” including “amendments abolishing slavery and expanding the right to vote,” was reduced in size, and employees were told that “focusing on the amendments portrayed the Founding Fathers in a negative light.” Shogan “told employees to remove Dorothea Lange’s photos of Japanese-American incarceration camps from a planned exhibit because the images were too negative and controversial, according to documents and current and former employees” and her aides “also asked staff to eliminate references about the wartime incarceration from some educational material.” An exhibit on coal communities “cut references to the environmental hazards caused by the mining industry.” Shogan’s aides “also ordered the removal of labor-union pioneer Dolores Huerta and Minnie Spotted-Wolf, the first Native American woman to join the Marine Corps, from the photo booth, according to current and former employees and agency documents.” A photo of Betty Ford wearing an Equal Rights Amendment pin was removed, and in an exhibit of “patents that changed the world,” the birth control pill was replaced with, of all things, the bump stock.

The explicit justification here was that the facts would hurt the feelings of guests who didn’t want to hear about union organizers and Native Americans. Visitors shouldn’t “feel confronted,” the Archivist said, but rather “welcomed.” Of course, Japanese Americans or Native Americans are unlikely to feel “confronted” by exhibits on their history, so the archivist was clearly referring to making white conservatives feel more at ease. In fact, an employee was specifically “told to look for success stories about white people.” And, looking over an exhibit about westward expansion, Shogan asked a staffer “Why is it so much about Indians?”

"Facts would hurt the feelings of guests."

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Is there any way we can have like a early Superbowl in between a live lingerie pillow fight broadcast all day on election day?

How about just declare voting day a public holiday and have college football all day long?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

If anyone is curious as to the direction that the country is heading with the Rs in charge they only need to look to Mexico. A country with a comically weak central government that is held hostage financially by an extremely lucrative drug trade that benefits local politicians and the economy by bringing in tons of cash. The state level reps are bought and paid for my local interests, and they dictate the terms to the central government.

We'll likely see the rise of local 'warlords' and militias in the US to the extent that they lay 'claim' to wide swaths of land. The state will look the other way, and the federal government will fail to both exercise its power and argue about whether or not they can actually do anything to stop it.

Russia will seek to have these separatists declared the true patriots, and have them protected at the international level, while seeking to supply them and act as the propaganda arms. If the US aggressively challenges them, we'll be called 'non-democratic' and no better than any other country that seeks to 'muzzle free speech'.

This will continue to fracture the federal system, state level forces will work in conjunction and try and look out for the bulk of the population, but will lose control if they cannot comply with separatists. The rise of regional skirmishes and border disputes will happen.

This won't seem like a problem for most of the US where status quo will feel almost normal, but it will be very obvious that it's not the world we grew up with, and foreign forces will continue to work to destabilize the country from within.

This feels very possible, and remains my impression, of where the country heads to as the central government continues to weaken and cede power to the states, and leaders take charge who are willingly giving that away.

QAnon for libs

[RainMaker]

hxxps://www.ettingermentum.news/p/why-the-polls-may-be-underestimating

Substack seems to cause issues on the forum but I think that link is interesting and sort of feel that way. I just don't see the effects of Dobbs going away after 2 years. I think there are some polling issues and too many outlets either herding or changing their methods to account for previous misses. Maybe Trump changes that landscape as opposed to a midterm, but the consensus from media poll watchers was way off in 2022.

I think it's impossible to call the race. My gut says she pulls out the PA, MI, WI trifecta to win. Although I think Michigan is a huge wildcard since they have a very large youth and Arab vote that Biden relied on in 2020. It was an enormous risk to abandon them in hopes you could lure enough neocons over but maybe they have the data showing that'll work. Pretty much any result with any of the swing states wouldn't surprise me at this point. Almost any scenario would make sense.