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#1 | ||
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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FOFC GroupThink 2025: We take over the Chicago Bears
Fresh off our GRAND SUCCESSES of recent years:
FOFC GroupThink 2022: We take over the NY Football Giants FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions FOFC GroupThink 2024: We take over the Arizona Cardinals ...we now set our sights on a goal, to, uhh, idano, what do we do over here in the windy city anyway? Let's fire up some Sufjan, bone up on architecture, and work through an offseason with yet another somewhat cursed franchise. |
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#2 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Here's a file with the P/F/F grades for the current roster, available for the next week for free.
Last edited by QuikSand : 01-02-2025 at 04:03 PM. |
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#3 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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#4 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Quote:
I have a nephew who lives there if we need any information though he's not a football fan at all lol
__________________
Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! 6/15/25-Coastal Baseball ends the season #2 afterlosing in the Finals of the College World Series! |
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#5 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2013
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So first order of business is ordering a deep-dish pizza?
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I tried, it worked! |
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#6 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
Think this is the wrong link unless I'm missing it in the thread somewhere.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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#7 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Here's my reco, which I just picked up for new years eve. The big talk is "tavern pizza" which Chicagoans will tell you is what real people get when they're not welcoming tourists. Problem is, it sucks. So for us, it's Domino's, or My Pie if we're craving it enough to spend the extra money. My Pi & Li'l Guys Anyway, oh, the Bears. From everything I've read, first step is to figure out management. Seems like there's currently a power struggle between Ryan Poles and Kevin Warren. I guess that fits the GroupThink model pretty well. The choice of coach will be a big step. Lions OC Ben Johnson is the hottest name in the coaching carousel, and word is he wants to coach the Bears because he really likes Caleb Williams. Johnson wants his own personnel guy, and Poles wants to choose it instead. So if Johnson gets the gig, it probably means Poles is out. But if it's someone else, Poles is still in charge. In my opinion, it's a no brainer to get Johnson and get rid of Poles. |
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#8 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
Warren has done a lot to update the front office structure but he was hired essentially so the McCaskeys could go hands off and that's the problem, as crazy as it is to say the McCaskeys being hands off is a problem. GMs prefer to report to ownership and everything goes through Warren right now. Warren also likes to speak to the media and get in front of a mic. That's going to turn off a lot of GM candidates. The problem with firing Poles is they're going to have to move quickly on a head coach and hiring a GM is a longer process. When Poles was hired he was essentially handed a choice between Eberflus or Caldwell by the search committee (Bill Polian) they had hired. I think any GM would be happy with Johnson but I doubt he'd take the job not being able to speak to the GM and if they miss out on Johnson you're back to sticking a GM with a coach you didn't pick and missed out on your top choice. In short, not a good situation all the way around. |
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#9 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
corrected link above and here: Please read |
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#10 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Is there an option to send ownership on a submarine to view the Titanic?
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#11 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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#12 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Should be in a good place draft wise to get a DE or DT.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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#13 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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From the PFF grades:
No surprises at the skill positions, really: they see QB Williams as still a project, the receivers grade out okay but not stellar, they grade RB RO Johnson a shade better than Swift but neither as elite, TE Kmet as a passable starter OL gets better base grades than I would have guessed, given the chatter (I have heard more about this team than I have seen, I will confess). PFF grades suggest that C Shelton and G Pryor are modestly above-average, while G Jenkens is basically elite (graded 13th of 75 qualifying guards). Tackles Wright and Jones also both grade out around 20th overall among tackles. PFF seems to think this is a very capable unit, which seems to suggest some coaching/scheme problems? Big asterisk here for me, I fully expected we'd be debating a first round OL here. PFF grades suggest the 1-2 punch of Johnson and Gordon at CB 1/2 is well above average. Veteran S Byard played well, and the other three guys who rotated in (Hicks, Brisker, Owens) were all okay at least, and Brisker is still a rising young player. Off-ball LBs Edwards and Edmunds are making money, but not really earning it with elite performances, though to be fair both had relatively down years in '24. Along the front a lot of forgettable middle tier guys, with young Gervon Dexter looking like he has legit promise. Edge is... a weakness. Sweat got his bag and is the build-around guy but he's not tearing it up. DeMarcus Walker looked roughly as effective, and is far cheaper. I don't have access to deep metrics but am used to targeting players going up against Chicago this year in DFS as a positive assignment. Likely starts with the anemic pass rush. |
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#14 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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#15 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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IMO the top needs are a tackle (then kick Darnell Wright inside), a Center, across the DLine, and an inside receiver.
My dream draft scenario would probably be one of the two scenarios: Draft Graham in round 1, and Millum in round 2 to kick him inside as a guard, and someone like Emeka in round 2 to play the inside receiver role as a strong route runner with solid size and good speed. The other would be draft Banks (kick Wright inside) but then it's gets riskier trying to land quality DE/DT help in the 2nd. Milum is a guy that will probably see his stock go up as the draft process plays out. I don't think he's a NFL tackle but he could be elite inside as a guard. |
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#16 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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In the (very early) mock drafts I am seeing Emeka Egbuka going mid to late 1st, right in the dead zone between the CHE top ten pick and the two early 2nds.
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#17 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Not sure Fannin makes it to the second round, but he'd be a good TE fit with one of those second round picks.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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#18 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
Jenkins is good when he plays but can't stay on the field for more than 2 full games. He's always dealing with an injury. Shelton was god awful to start the year but has steadily improved. Pryor is a guy. Darnell Wright is their best lineman and Braxton is ok as a LT but is prone to getting bullrushed. Receivers: Odunze has flashed enough that I think he can be a high end 2. DJ Moore is good but has been frustrated with the offense and playcalling. Keenan Allen hasn't been used properly at all. Neither has Kmet, honestly. The secondary can be elite. The Dline needs work. IMO, a good DT would help across the line but another edge is needed as well. Booker is promising but very, very raw. Linebackers are kind of a mess. Edwards is solid and Edmunds feels misused. |
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#19 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
Before the season there seemed to be a consensus that the OL was going to be competent at worse, really good at best. Given what we know now about how poorly this team was coached, it seems to me coaching & scheme was more the problem than talent. |
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#20 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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I think Wright is fine at RT. He's been pretty good from what I've seen. Jones at LT is meh. He isn't the first priority on the line but they should be scouting for an upgrade or see if a good one is available in the 1st.
The issue is the interior which has been a disaster. I'd go hard after Drew Dalman. Bears need an anchor at Center. If not, you have to grab a top guard like Trey Smith or Will Fries who are still young. You need to get one elite interior lineman this offseason. Then I'd use one of the 2nd round picks on a Guard or Center. As for the draft, it's mostly BPA. A good LT would be great. Same for an EDGE since Sweat has fallen off a cliff. Not opposed to trading back a few spots either for some day 2 help. |
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#21 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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What do you do about Tyrique Stevenson? I haven't looked at the PFF numbers, but do you just have to get rid of him?
Also, Cairo Santos has been the Bears kicker for a long time, but couldn't be trusted to hit a 57 yard FG to tie the game. Feels like a kicker needs to be a guy where hitting a 57 yard FG gives you a better shot than 4th and 10. Maybe that's a coaching problem though (sorry Dat Boy). Speaking of, anyone want to keep Dat Boy? |
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#22 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Not sure on Santos contract (believe he recently got an extension). If it doesn't cost a bunch of dead cap, I think you can safely look for an upgrade with more leg.
Stevenson is tricky. I don't think he has much trade value and you'd be better off seeing if a new coach can get his head on straight. He does have a lot of raw talent. I'd probably just keep him but he'd be competing in camp for a roster spot. |
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#23 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
Stevenson has a lot of talent but takes far too many risks in coverage and gets torched. Also, he's good for a 15 yard penalty for talking shit every couple games. There may be some trade value there but I'd prefer not to deal with his shit anymore. For Thomas Brown, I just don't see a fit. He's been bad as a HC (in an impossible situation) and as an OC the playcalling did improve while he was in the booth but he was still running the Waldron version of the McVay offense with some tweaks that should have been obvious to everyone. I'd rather just bring in a top offensive HC and let him do his own thing. |
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#24 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Cutting Santos is a 2 million cap hit (with another 2 million saved). Manageable if there's another quality kicker available, or you want to roll the dice on a late draft pick.
Last edited by Coffee Warlord : 01-02-2025 at 05:31 PM. |
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#25 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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As far as Stevenson goes, I keep him if our coach is no-bullshit enough to deal with him. There's talent there if he gets his head out of his ass.
He's at best competing for his job in camp, though. |
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#26 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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It’s hard to put into words how good good deep dish can be and how bad bad deep dish can be. I’d also add that regardless of quality it’s all so damn expensive that it’s impossible to enjoy with any sort of regularity. Last time I had some was in Porter Indiana and we spent well over $100 for a pizza, some breadsticks, one pasta dish, and some drinks (of which only 1 was alcoholic.) It was not good deep dish.
__________________
Quote:
Last edited by dubb93 : 01-02-2025 at 05:55 PM. |
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#27 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
PFF numbers suggest a standard roster-filler young guy, ratings each of two seasons around 60 which puts him in the bottom third of guys with enough starts to count. Some guys like that put it together, most guys with low-round equity don't really get the chance - that sort of production you can replace with a 4th round rookie in any given year for pennies on the dollar. I don't think he's a priority. |
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#28 |
General Manager
Join Date: Dec 2009
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woooooooooo take ius home,quik!
DA BEARS! so the first qiuestion is....how do youi stop bears from being bears when Bears gonna Bear |
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#29 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2006
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For the record I don't look at PFF ratings. I probably know the Bears better than the guy(s) doing the ratings. Subjective anyway. Just some comments about the players mentioned so far:
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln |
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#30 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Stevenson - No way you get anything more than like a 6th for him. Keep him, see if a new coach can fix his head.
Kmet - Yeah, in the right system, he's a very good TE. Bears don't need a TE, they need to use the one they have correctly. Wright - Agree. He's a perfectly acceptable RT. Also agree on basically the rest of the line. Jenkins - Agree, his time is over. When he's healthy, he's a good guard, but he's NEVER healthy. Edmunds & Edwards - Agree. Edwards is a definite keeper, Edmunds is just overpaid and not very good, but can't dump him or trade him. Byard - Maybe he's okay, but it's hard to grade our entire secondary, because we have ZERO pressure on the QB. Hard to cover forever. Santos - Unless there's some hot shit kicker in the draft we want to burn a 6 or 7 on, I'm in agreement there. |
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#31 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Concord, MA/UMass
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I generally like PFF and understand how hard it is to judge O Linemen in particular without knowing the scheme, but checking the Pats weekly the IOL stuff was really weird - Ben Brown would bounce from an 81.8% one week to a literal 0.0 others. Tl;dr there is a 0.0% chance the Bears Center isn't terrible based off the limited samples I saw, dude was getting immediately overrun at the point of attack repeatedly. (And no QB's can look good being on their back foot that early, even TB12 sucked vs pressure up the middle.)
Quote:
I think DL will end up being the value play in the first though I wouldn't get the hopes up for Graham too much - possible I'm overrating his impact vs Kenneth Grant's but I have him as one of the 3 non-QB's I'd want the Pats taking if they can trade down with the Giants to 4 (Hunter, Graham, Abdul Carter, with Will Johnson on that tier but not as big a need for us and probably not the Bears with Jaylon Johnson as CB1). C obviously needs to be fixed too, but haven't looked hard at the FA market/draft tiers since Pats OL needs are more T based, does feel like you can get good ones in the 3rd or later if you scout well. Me picking any one of those guys would be a dart throw, I'd rather pay a vet - Spotrac lists a 31 year old Ryan Kelly from Indy and a quartet of 26 year olds in Nick Harris from Cleveland, Trystan Colon-Castillo from Arizona, Josh Myers from Green Bay, and Drew Dalman from Atlanta, can any of those dudes play? |
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#32 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
All of the attention is on Ben Johnson but Liam Coen intrigues me as well. He's another McVay disciple and has had successful stints as an OC at multiple places and it's his offense and playcalling in Tampa that has Baker playing so well. WVU's search committee was really high on him because of his organizational skills and communication. This draft is an odd one. I think we'll see 2 QBs go within the top 3, Travis Hunter will go top 5. Banks, Will Johnson and Abdul Carter will go high as well. That's 6 guys that could easily go before Graham, which could put him play for the Bears in the 7-9 range, depending on how this last week plays out. Graham, Carter, Banks would probably be my wish list at this point, in that order. This offseason needs to be about nailing down both lines and getting more depth at receiver. |
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#33 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Concord, MA/UMass
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Quote:
![]() Interesting to hear that take on Banks, at the Pats forum I frequent where we all agree they desperately need an LT it's mostly been a debate over whether Banks or Campbell is #1 and whether Campbell needs to be kicked inside due to arm length, but the consensus is that neither are worth a top 5 pick. I'm fully sold on Hunter even if he's "just" a WR after seeing some stuff regarding his contested catch % lately, possible Graham falls too due to playing a less sexy position - James Pearce Jr is another really good DE with more sacks - and zero faith in Elliott Wolf if he's still our GM but Graham seems can't miss to me in a fairly shallow draft at the very top. Would take Banks all day over Tet McMillan, that guy gives me way too many N'Keal Harry vibes ![]() |
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#34 |
Solecismic Software
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Canton, OH
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I think they asked too much of Caleb Williams as a rookie. You see the ability there and it's so tempting to give him a couple of good receivers and let him go to town. But he holds on to the ball too long and I don't think he's getting good protection, even though he is to blame for a lot of the scary number of sacks.
You look at the difference between his Air Yards Attempted and Completed and it's about the highest in the league. You look at the yards per carry from the running backs, and it's well below 4. This is not an efficient offense and I don't think it's fair to judge Williams. He seems so much better than Fields and I think he will continue, as he gains confidence in his receivers, to try and push the ball downfield. I see two glaring needs. An upgrade at left tackle and a defensive tackle who can hold his own and keep teams from getting those easy yards on second down. After that, more depth for the DL rotation would help and everyone would like an upgrade in the secondary. I'm sure they'll take a mid-round running back to add to the mix. If they have a shot at Jeanty, it might be tempting, but the OL/DT picks are need picks and you can certainly get a good one with that first-rounder. |
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#35 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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The online mock draft tools all point the same general direction as needs: beefy linemen on both sides. I'm inclined to lean that way and skip past that one-year snapshot from PFF.
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#36 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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No Brainer Cuts
--- TE Gerald Everett (1.0 million hit) (5.5 million saved) G Ryan Bates (0 hit) (4.0 million saved) Back and forth on cutting Byard at a 1.5 million hit with 7.0 million saved. I think we can do better with that money. Just those two cuts puts us at 91 million in cap space. Last edited by Coffee Warlord : 01-03-2025 at 11:45 AM. |
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#37 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Probably not news to anyone, but I think you need to dismantle as much of this team as possible. I was trying to figure out "how good/bad are they?" since they started 4-2. The 4 wins: Titans, Rams, Panthers, Jaguars. The two losses in that span: Colts and Texans. So even when they were "good" they lost to the Colts. Yes, they beat the Rams, but that was before they put it together -- they were 1-4 before the bye week and 8-2 after. So the fact that they seemed "good" for a while was completely a matter of scheduling. They're just bad.
I don't really know what's typical for an NFL roster to keep from year to year, so maybe this is actually standard, but I'm thinking at most 20 players should be kept. Williams and Odunze obviously, some rookies drafted last year you're not sure about (although they only drafted 5 rookies last year, so that's not many more), and a handful of veterans that seem like deals. Probably not what we're looking for in this thread, but I think you ask Caleb. This is his team, more than anyone else's. If he doesn't like a player, get rid of him. Or, given what I said earlier, ask him who he really likes working with, and only keep those guys. Gut the rest. Sign FAs who seem like good deals and guys who seem to have potential instead of chasing the best players in the market. You probably don't win anything in 2025 (but great if you do), but you set yourself up for better cap space in 2026, and have some ideas of who you like from the 2025 roster and what your needs are. Hire Ben Johnson, and tell him no expectations in year 1. As I type it, it seems drastic, but this team is not going anywhere 2025. They're too bad, in way too much of a mess, and in a division with the Lions, Vikings, and Packers. The focus should not be winning, it should be cleanup. |
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#38 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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For as horrible a HC as Dennis Allen has been, he's always been a great DC.
Assuming that we end up getting one of the bright young offensive minds to pair with our OC, it would be smart (I think) to get a vet DC like Allen who can just lock down that side of the ball and let the HC focus on the offense. |
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#39 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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dola:
And in terms of players, we go for O-Line, O-Line, O-Line. I trust the posters on this board who watch the team. If they say that the line needs to improve, then that's what we do. The Panthers overpaid guards last offseason to protect Young. I don't think that they've regretted that for a second. |
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#40 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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I cannot help myself...
![]() Via https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft Most later picks are complete stabs at positions, ofc. But I tend to learn about the draft class through mocks, so might as well get to it. |
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#41 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
I guess that means they'll draft a quarterback first |
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#42 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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I like Donovan Jackson a lot given his positional versatility and his outstanding play after moving to LT.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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#43 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
Agree on your other points but I think Kmet is pretty good. He's a really good run blocker and an above average receiver. For some reason the Waldron offense just didn't use the tight end at all in the passing game. When they are using him, he does well and opens up routes for other receivers. I think you can make a case that they shouldn't have extended him and grabbed Bowers in the draft. But I don't see any scenario where they can upgrade from Kmet this offseason. |
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#44 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
I don't know many of these players but I'm all aboard drafting in the trenches as much as possible unless some elite player at another position falls far in the draft. Basically take BPA at DL or OL for the first 4 picks. |
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#45 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
My take on this is that Williams attempted to play a lot of hero ball and that's how you end up with these stats. He appears to care about winning, and he was under pressure a lot, and he didn't appear to have an OC or HC who had the experience/nous to coach him on what not to do, so he went full hero-ball. So, if we assume that the goal of the new coaching hires is to get an OC or HC-who-playcalls to convince Williams to stick with the program and stop playing hero ball, then, building in RM's post, drafting for the line (perhaps balanced with the D-line) is the way to go. Some fresh talent plus someone who knows how to get an O-Line to play well, would then allow Williams to settle down and work with the system more. |
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#46 |
General Manager
Join Date: Dec 2009
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so like i am wondering just how good high ranking Oline and DLine are. Do they usually perform that much better than guys low in the draft at those slots?
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#47 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2006
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Williams is hard to evaluate considering the poor o-line play and a bad offensive scheme/coaches. Projecting, I think he will be an excellent QB but not generational. His ceiling is probably Goff-like in the right system. He won't be a Lamar or Mahomes or Burrow. He'll be better than Lawrence, Mayfield, Hurts, Murray, and the like, assuming that the Bears get the HC/OC combination correct. If they don't then he might travel the same path as a guy like Darnold or Geno Smith -- late bloomers who fit in a particular system.
I would love him to be the next Drew Brees, but I don't think he's got the football smarts for that. as flere- wrote, he plays too much hero ball and I am not sure that will ever be coached out of him. Thankfully the INTs are at a minimum but he also misses open guys looking for the big play.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln Last edited by weegeebored : 01-04-2025 at 02:05 PM. |
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#48 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Williams holding onto the ball is somewhat overblown because the offensive scheme has been bad and inconsistent. Fix the offense and it won't be a problem.
Williams is at 2.91 on the year. Josh Allen 2.88, Bo Nix 2.91, CJ Stroud 2.93. Darnold 3.08, Hurts 3.13, and Lamar 3.14. |
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#49 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2013
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We forgot to tell the Bears that they were suppose to tank this game.
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I tried, it worked! |
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#50 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Bears are locked in at 10 in the draft, which likely puts Graham and Carter out of play. They should be looking OL or trade back now. Maybe a Nic Scourton, his analytics were really strong this year even though his sacks dropped.
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