The Trump Presidency 2.0

[Ksyrup]

And his administration didn't know the country wasn't spelled with a 'u' either.

[Edward64]

Per CNN reporting, sounds like Colombia renege (or someone below Petro approved without his knowledge) ...

3D chess going on? Or just 2 kids in the playground?

Trump issuing ‘emergency 25% tariffs’ against Colombia after country turned back deportation flights | CNN Politics

Rubio said in an earlier Sunday statement that Colombian officials had approved two military flights carrying migrants to Colombia and then revoked the authorization once they were en route. CNN reported earlier, based on a review of documents, that Colombian officials had approved the flights.

“Colombian President Petro had authorized flights and provided all needed authorizations and then canceled his authorization when the planes were in the air. As demonstrated by today’s actions, we are unwavering in our commitment to end illegal immigration and bolster America’s border security,” Rubio said.

Petro disputed that he had given authorization, writing on X after the secretary of state’s statement, “I will never allow Colombians to be brought in handcuffs on flights. Marco, if officials from the Foreign Ministry allowed this, it would never be under my direction.”

CNN had previously reported Trump administration officials were surprised and frustrated when Petro said he was blocking US deportation flights from entering the country. Sources within the Colombian government were also caught by surprise by Petro’s post.

[Ksyrup]

I hope this is just BS, but is it true that Dr. Phil was with Homan in Chicago filming ICE deportation operations for some subscription service Phil runs now?

[Mota]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The alternative is death.

Trump just said they want to pave over Gaza and hopefully other countries will take them. This is death.

[Flasch186]

Colombia caved


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[JPhillips]

Maybe. My guess is they worked out a deal regarding flights on military planes and the WH doesn't want to admit to making any concessions.

[GrantDawg]

The Colombians will now be picking up any Colombian nationals to be deported. No military flights, nor anyone in chains. So yes, Trump caved and claimed victory.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The Colombians will now be picking up any Colombian nationals to be deported. No military flights, nor anyone in chains. So yes, Trump caved and claimed victory.

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The situation still seems to be ... fluid.

Per NYT this morning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/26/w...n-flights.html

Under threats from President Trump that included steep tariffs, President Gustavo Petro of Colombia has relented and will allow U.S. military planes to fly deportees into the country, after turning two transports back in response to what he called inhumane treatment.

If it is US military planes, I cannot imagine the illegals would NOT be restrained. So, the semantics might be what is "handcuffs vs chains". My guess is Colombia is giving Trump the win this time ... and then going to open up for another suitor like China.

If Colombia did renege on the deal per the CNN link above, then frak'em. If Colombia did not renege or the US didn't follow the terms of the deal, then pretty stupid for US to piss off a long-term partner in the region.

I'm upping the odds for some US military action against Colombia these next 4 years especially if they get closer to China ... say from 1% to 10%.

[Atocep]

I remember when disobeying a lawful order meant reduction in rank with a discharge. Now you get reinstated at your previous rank and backpay.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The Colombians will now be picking up any Colombian nationals to be deported. No military flights, nor anyone in chains. So yes, Trump caved and claimed victory.

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So we don't have to pay to ship the vermin back?

We all win.

[Edward64]

Wonder if other companies will follow suit (e.g. Apple Maps).

Google said Monday it will change the name of Gulf of Mexico to “Gulf of America” after the government updates its “official government sources.”

The company also said it will start using Mount McKinley, which is currently called Denali.

Last week, President Donald Trump signed executive actions that included an order to make the name changes on official maps and federal communications.

“We’ve received a few questions about naming within Google Maps,” the company said in an X post. “We have a longstanding practice of applying name changes when they have been updated in official government sources.”

[Atocep]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...uty-rcna189502

An Indiana man who was recently pardoned for his participation in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot was shot and killed during a traffic stop by a sheriff's deputy Sunday.

Matthew Huttle, 42, was involved in a traffic stop at 4:15 p.m. by a Jasper County sheriff’s deputy, authorities said in a news release. It alleged that Huttle resisted arrest and was found to have a firearm on him.

[JPhillips]

So now every President has the power to change the name of any location through EO.

Wonderful.

[Lathum]

Here comes Mt Trumpmore!

[RainMaker]

Sure China just decimated the future of our tech sector with a side project but the real issue is renaming bodies of water.

[JPhillips]

The Treasury Secretary says he wants a 2.5% universal tariff that goes up 2.5% each month.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The Treasury Secretary says he wants a 2.5% universal tariff that goes up 2.5% each month.

Dem messaging on this is just terrible. Trying to explain tariffs to these people is stupid. They should be mocking Trump for embracing a socialist tax.

[JPhillips]

Trump Tax on everything you buy.

[HerRealName]

Has anyone changed their 401K investment mix lately? I'm strongly considering pulling a decent chunk out of the stock market and into bonds.

[JPhillips]

Trump has ordered all federal grants paused. Nobody knows what that includes, but it could impact millions of Americans.

Oh, and it's clearly illegal as defined by the Impoundment Control Act, but they're looking to have SCOTUS declare that unconstitutional.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Has anyone changed their 401K investment mix lately? I'm strongly considering pulling a decent chunk out of the stock market and into bonds.

With the way things are going, do you think treasuries are even safe?

[miked]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump has ordered all federal grants paused. Nobody knows what that includes, but it could impact millions of Americans.

Oh, and it's clearly illegal as defined by the Impoundment Control Act, but they're looking to have SCOTUS declare that unconstitutional.

Well, several colleagues of mine had grants terminated with no notice. We have quite a few grants that support students from underrepresented backgrounds (many 1st gen college grants) that were terminated with no notice because they fall under the DEI ban. I guess we only want white people in science (oh, and tons of J1 people from China, Korea, and India). It's insane, imagine fighting your way through college, getting in to a top PhD program (ours is ranked #2 in the country), getting a grant, making good progress, and suddenly the grant is terminated with no notice.

Of course, the college is going to temporarily cover it, but it will just turn in to tuition increases and more student loans.

I had a grant that was set to be reviewed in 2 weeks, but it looks like the pause will scuttle that.

[RainMaker]

Going out on a limb and guessing farmer welfare won't be part of this.

[GrantDawg]

There are a lot of questions about that. Aid and Grants covers lots of things, including aid to farmers, state block grants for a large variety of things, and almost every DOT road project. I have a feeling that if any of those things are paused, it will be very short-lived.

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[Edward64]

NYT has the actual memo but is behind a paywall. Below has some details of the memo. It also speculates on areas that could be cut.

403 Forbidden

President Donald Trump’s budget office on Monday ordered all federal agencies to temporarily block disbursement of grants and loans — other than for Social Security, Medicare and other programs providing direct aid to individuals.

The memo says the temporary pause, effective starting at 5 p.m. on Tuesday, is intended to ensure agencies are complying with Trump’s executive orders to root out “Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies” from programs within their purview.

I think I understand "green new deal" but what is "green new deal social engineering policies"?

“This memorandum requires Federal agencies to identify and review all Federal financial assistance programs and supporting activities consistent with the President’s policies and requirements.”

$3T is a lot of money. I'm sure there's some waste and wouldn't mind seeing some of that cut out, but doubt it'll come close to even a third of it.

At face value, the memo represents a major halt to the flow of funds from programs that could equal around 20 percent of all federal spending, not including interest on the debt. The memo said total spending on programs meeting the definition of “federal financial assistance” that could be impacted reached $3 trillion in fiscal 2024, though exemptions are likely to reduce that figure.

My guess is this will stir up quite a bit of commotion but ultimately get struck down per below ...

Kogan said the administration is likely to face lawsuits as a result, arguing the OMB pause violates both the the 1974 law restricting presidential impoundment of funds appropriated by Congress as well as various individual appropriations and authorization statutes.

How fast can the lawyers & courts work? I'm thinking this is part of the plan, flood the legal system with his X, Y & Z for the next 4 years when its being "sorted out" in the courts; and during that time period, some of his executive actions/policies will be "de facto" until it's struck down by the courts or (doubtful) Congress.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Has anyone changed their 401K investment mix lately? I'm strongly considering pulling a decent chunk out of the stock market and into bonds.

For me, nope. Depends on your risk profile and how long till retirement. Average S&P is about 8-10%. Using Rule of 72 @9%, that means your $ will double every 8 years.

If it's 2-3 years and you can't sleep well at nights with market turbulence, sure.

If it's 5+ years, probably just leave it in some solid stock ETFs (e.g. VOO for S&P, SCHG for Nasdaq). Good odds that 5+ years will do better than bonds.

If it's 10+ years, I'd definitely leave it in solid stock ETFs.


But one thing to definitely consider is doing more with Roth vs Traditional 401k/IRAs. I've told my kids to take the hit now and just do Roth option.

[Edward64]

For some comic relief re: Greenland. This was during Trump 1.0

Worth watching first half and last couple min.

He's got a whole Greenland series ...

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...bRjSDaLV6Jqx4B

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Edward64

For me, nope. Depends on your risk profile and how long till retirement. Average S&P is about 8-10%. Using Rule of 72 @9%, that means your $ will double every 8 years.

If it's 2-3 years and you can't sleep well at nights with market turbulence, sure.

If it's 5+ years, probably just leave it in some solid stock ETFs (e.g. VOO for S&P, SCHG for Nasdaq). Good odds that 5+ years will do better than bonds.

If it's 10+ years, I'd definitely leave it in solid stock ETFs.


But one thing to definitely consider is doing more with Roth vs Traditional 401k/IRAs. I've told my kids to take the hit now and just do Roth option.

I ended up making the mix a little more conservative but not as much as I was thinking yesterday. Thanks for talking me through it

[Lathum]

Sounds like a federal judge put a stay on the EO not allowing open awards from being frozen

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Sounds like a federal judge put a stay on the EO not allowing open awards from being frozen

Everything was written really vague. It's been like that for several of the EOs and the white house nor anyone else is clarifying much of anything yet so a lot of this stuff is unenforceable until they give details.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Everything was written really vague. It's been like that for several of the EOs and the white house nor anyone else is clarifying much of anything yet so a lot of this stuff is unenforceable until they give details.

Yeah, I have seen a lot of things saying that, which IMO is a good thing. Tie this shit up in the courts as long as possible.

[Ksyrup]

Admin offering 7 months' pay to all federal workers if they leave by February 6th.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Admin offering 7 months' pay to all federal workers if they leave by February 6th.

Yeah this is going to be a mess. The younger, good workers are going to be the ones most likely to take them up on this offer. I'm sure a couple from my department will take it. I could see maybe one from the branch i manage take them up on it but most of my team are around 40 with families. They'd be unlikely candidates.

Compounding the problem is you could see clusters from the same branch or department go for this and cripple them. Lets say our entire networking branch decided to accept this resignation. We're kind of fucked and there's nothing that could be done about it. Do you know how long it takes to hire and onboard a federal employee? Sorry the network went down during your heart transplant. We hope to have someone hired to fix it within the next 6 months.

[Ksyrup]

I think the intent is to cripple the government. I'll be curious how many positions would be back-filled. The purpose is to incentivize people to leave so the administration isn't sued for firing them. But the goal is the same - reduction.

[Ksyrup]

At my old company, they did something similar, but it was targeted at 50+ year olds with at least 10 years' service. You got 2x the number of weeks' severance for each year of service if you took the offer.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I think the intent is to cripple the government.

Considering how crippling it's become, that seems only fair.

And long overdue.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Yeah, I have seen a lot of things saying that, which IMO is a good thing. Tie this shit up in the courts as long as possible.

They're still going to get destroyed in court for sloppy legal work. I've seen multiple attorneys say these EOs appear to be written using ChatGPT or another AI. Spelling, grammar, and formatting issues in a lot of them. One had a numbered list and each one was numbered 1. They're not even proofreading the AI'S work and most judges aren't grandma's on Facebook.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Admin offering 7 months' pay to all federal workers if they leave by February 6th.

I saw an article, target of 10% and same 7 months of pay.

In the commercial world, buyouts typically have different buyout packages of pay, health, benefits etc. based on years of service (and level). I didn't see this mentioned in the article.

If it truly is just 7 months pay for everyone, the ones with less years (and already thinking about leaving) will make out like a bandit and the more senior ones screwed (relatively speaking).

I'd think it can't be as simple as that? Fun times ...

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Access Denied

But he had one glorious week before he was shot dead!

I do feel for the poor cop who ran into him.

[JPhillips]

The terms of the buyout look like it just allows people to stay remote but doesn't actually say they leave employment.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The terms of the buyout look like it just allows people to stay remote but doesn't actually say they leave employment.

I have the email. If you choose to resign you're getting paid until September 30th 2025 no matter what. You can choose to accelerate that resignation date, are open to be put on administrative leave, etc. Whatever. You're still choosing to resign with pay guaranteed through September 30th.

It's worded really weirdly and kind of vague so I'm already getting questions from other federal employees that aren't fully grasping what this email says.

[Atocep]

And as Tim Kaine just pointed out, anyone accepting this will likely be stiffed on the severance pay because this is an offer without congressional authority.

[Atocep]

https://newrepublic.com/post/190784/...kers-elon-musk

There was an anonymous post that went out yesterday on social media from someone that claimed to work at OPM HQ. He hinted at what was about to happen and named names of those involved. One of the names he dropped was someone named Amanda Scales, who he said worked for Elon and was running the OPM email account from a shady server Doge had installed to send these mass emails from.

We now have a lawsuit accusing the Trump administration of sending every federal employee's personal information to Amanda Scales, who is an employee of Elon Musk, not the federal government.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

And as Tim Kaine just pointed out, anyone accepting this will likely be stiffed on the severance pay because this is an offer without congressional authority.

I'm so old I remember the GOP freaking out over Biden forgiving student loans without congressional approval.

[cuervo72]

Yeah, that’s not a great thing to have out there from a security standpoint. If most hacks are a result of fishing and a nice handy list of every Federal email address gets out…

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

https://newrepublic.com/post/190784/...kers-elon-musk

There was an anonymous post that went out yesterday on social media from someone that claimed to work at OPM HQ. He hinted at what was about to happen and named names of those involved. One of the names he dropped was someone named Amanda Scales, who he said worked for Elon and was running the OPM email account from a shady server Doge had installed to send these mass emails from.

We now have a lawsuit accusing the Trump administration of sending every federal employee's personal information to Amanda Scales, who is an employee of Elon Musk, not the federal government.

But Hillary!!!

[JPhillips]

Crazy how Dems are now the high propensity voter party. They just won an Iowa senate district that was Trump +21.

[Edward64]

The actual text of the buyout letter here. Always good to read the actual text ...

Fork in the Road

Please accept this letter as my formal resignation from employment with my employing agency, effective September 30, 2025.

Given my impending resignation, I understand I will be exempt from any “Return to Office” requirements pursuant to recent directives and that I will maintain my current compensation and retain all existing benefits (including but not limited to retirement accruals) until my final resignation date.

I don't know how the word "buyout" originated but this doesn't seem like any buyout that I've seen.

It's more ... you can continue to work remotely if you want through Sep 30 but then you're likely going to be released. There's no "severance" just the right to work remotely through Sep 30.

e.g. if I resign in Mar, I'm gone and don't get any pay through Sep 30

[Lathum]

Thank God they are focusing on the important things

Access to this page has been denied

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The actual text of the buyout letter here. Always good to read the actual text ...

Fork in the Road




I don't know how the word "buyout" originated but this doesn't seem like any buyout that I've seen.

It's more ... you can continue to work remotely if you want through Sep 30 but then you're likely going to be released. There's no "severance" just the right to work remotely through Sep 30.

e.g. if I resign in Mar, I'm gone and don't get any pay through Sep 30

Apart from the text of the letter, I think the key consideration is what is the expectation for work. I know how it reads, but then there's the reality.

I suppose this could just be a limited-effect attempt to secure some downsizing from people who care more about remote work than their jobs, or who probably see the writing on the wall anyway and see this as an 8 month headstart on finding new employment.