Taiwanese president shot!!!!

[Galaril]

Here in Korea we just got this report in!Holy F' Shit.Stand by for more info once I get it.

link:
Taiwan prez shot

[Suicane75]

I'm not very cultured, but is this a huge world wide story?

[SackAttack]

It has some fairly large ramifications.

The Taiwanese president, if I'm not mistaken, has been one of the most outspoken supporters of Taiwanese independence and democracy, neither of which make Beijing very happy at all. China has threatened war if Taiwan tries to separate itself further from the mainland than it has already, and if the United States gets involved in Taiwan's defense, things could get downright ugly in a hurry.

So, insofar as this could seriously impact, one way or another, Taiwanese/Chinese diplomatic relations, then yeah, it's a huge worldwide story. No telling where this is gonna go, depending on who's responsible for the shooting.

[Galaril]

It is if china (likely)did it.Imagine if they could be implicated.It could precipitate nuclear war.(unlikely)

[yabanci]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3548893.stm

Taiwan's President Chen wounded
Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian has been wounded during campaigning in Tainan in southern Taiwan.

Initial reports said the president may have been injured by a firecracker but a legislator from Mr Chen's party was quoted as saying he had been shot.

Mr Chen was taken to hospital with a stomach wound while Vice-President Annette Lu was said to have hurt her leg. Neither injury is thought serious.

Taiwan is holding its presidential election on Saturday.

[SackAttack]

Dola,

Does anybody else think it's absolutely ridiculous just how many missiles China has pointed at Taiwan (to say nothing of their repeated efforts to influence Taiwanese elections)?

I mean, this would be like if, say, Guam was thinking it didn't want to be a US protectorate anymore, and we decided it was necessary to point several hundred ICBMs at them to 'persuade' them against that course of action. It's like using a sledgehammer to swat a fly.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Galaril

It is if china (likely)did it.Imagine if they could be implicated.It could precipitate nuclear war.(unlikely)

Depends on how far the conflict spreads. If the US stays out of it, then it'd probably be a localized conflict, and China would overrun Taiwan pretty quickly. If the US gets involved, then whether or not it goes nuclear depends upon a whole host of factors - primarily whether or not China would enjoy any sort of international support for their position.

If any sort of embargo was slapped on them, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them resort to the nuclear option to win the conflict. When you have a billion mouths to feed, you tend to react just a little more strongly to perceived threats to your survival.

[BishopMVP]

Maybe the French will back China since they've already been conducting joint naval exercises off Taiwan's coast the last few days.

If China does seriously threaten Taiwan, the US will probably announce their full support for Taiwan. If China invades, who knows what we'll do.

I don't know much about the election, but it seems this will almost certainly ensure a Chen victory.

[stevew]

Isnt protection of Taiwan one of the tenants of our foreign policy?
As in an act of aggression against Taiwan, is essentially the same as an act of agression against the US.

This could suck bad(not likely).

[BishopMVP]

We've always unofficially supported Taiwan, but I think Bush or someone in his administration annouced our full support for Taiwanese soveriegnty or something...too lazy to look up details but China and some Americans were pissed off about that.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by stevew

Isnt protection of Taiwan one of the tenants of our foreign policy?
As in an act of aggression against Taiwan, is essentially the same as an act of aggression against the US.

This could suck bad(not likely).

Well, yes and no. Our official policy for years has been a support of democracy wherever it may spring up. There's some Sino/American friction over Hong Kong for that same reason, actually.

Thing is...for the longest time, there was a 'one China' policy. Y'see, China's "official" name is the People's Republic of China (which is the single biggest misnomer I've ever seen). Taiwan styles itself the "Republic of China," but we simply referred to them as Taiwan. It wasn't, I think, until the Bush Administration that there was any sort of change in that policy. It didn't make the Chinese too happy, and there were quite a few Americans who felt like that was an unnecessary provocation of a country that, in addition to being one of our largest trading partners, is also the home of one of the world's largest standing militaries (I think North Korea actually holds the dubious honor of having THE largest standing army).

The thing is...I'm not sure Taiwan enjoys the same level of support that, say, Israel does. If Israel were attacked, I'm fairly sure the US would back the Israelis in a heartbeat.

Taiwan? I'm not so sure our leadership would be eager (or willing) to pick a fight in a region that essentially has four nuclear powers - one of which was for much of the 20th century an enemy (and remains an uneasy ally), and another that really doesn't think much of us.

The other troubling thing is just the general instability of the entire region. Let's say China does assault Taiwan. Do we move to their defense? If not, then does that embolden India to move on Kashmir, or North Korea to go after South Korea? The rationalist in me wants to say that India wouldn't do anything rash, but I'm not as certain of Pakistan, and both of those nations have nukes (and probably wouldn't hesitate to use them on each other if the perceived need arose).

It's just a house of cards waiting to fall, and I think that's part of the reason the Bush administration hasn't been as eager to topple Kim Il Jong as they were to remove Saddam. yeah, Iraq is unstable right now, but nothing like the mess you'd see in eastern Asia if the shit hit the fan.

Just my late night ramblings.

[Flasch186]

Id love to see where you got the notes on the French/doing joint NAval exercises with the Chinese. Please I beg you to put them on here and change the initial expression on my face of WTF, another lil POC to support the current Admin's stance on the foreign policy side of things.


Abd I stand corrected and am not happy about this from the French. In such sensitive times to have joint military ops. with a country that is threatening to induce civil war I find deplorable. Now I hope the current Admin will let the French know of their dismay.

[Tekneek]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

If any sort of embargo was slapped on them, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them resort to the nuclear option to win the conflict. When you have a billion mouths to feed, you tend to react just a little more strongly to perceived threats to your survival.

Embargo? Walmart would have to close its doors. We would run out of flags pretty quickly. Some IT companies that offshored their work to Chinese companies would go in the tank. An embargo against China would have some effects on our economy.

[KevinNU7]

Anyone else suspect Al Qaeda?

[Tekneek]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

The thing is...I'm not sure Taiwan enjoys the same level of support that, say, Israel does. If Israel were attacked, I'm fairly sure the US would back the Israelis in a heartbeat.

I suspect that the difference here has everything to do with money. There is more money and power in prominent places in America that would demand support for Israel. No such structure exists in support of Taiwan.

Those are just my 'off-the-cuff' thoughts and remarks. I haven't looked up anything.

[Easy Mac]

The US won't do anything unless there is a full scale invasion of Taiwan by China. If Taiwan makes the first move we definitely do nothing.

[JAG]

I read somewhere that China doesn't have the ability to invade Taiwan.

[JPhillips]

First, the One-China policy has not changed. Bush went off the reservation when Chen was in the US and seemed to change the One-China stance, but Powell quickly covered for the President and stated that there was in fact no change of policy. If I remember right Fliescher made a similar correction during the press briefeing the next day.

As to what we would do if China invaded, good question. Either option would cripple the world economy. Something like 90% of the world's microchips are made in Taiwan, while any number of products are made in China. The darkest side of outsourcing is that it has real impact on our foriegn policy. The reason we have to walk the knife edge on China/Taiwan is less about nuclear war and more about economics at this point.

And those of you who are sure of Bush taking a tough stance on China, think again. Over the past year or so we have let China get away with a number of things so that they will help us deal with N. Korea. Because we really have no military option for N. Korea, at least as long as we have 100,000+ troops in Iraq and probably until we are ready to greatly expand the army, we need China to ensure N. Korea doesn't go nuts.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Id love to see where you got the notes on the French/doing joint NAval exercises with the Chinese.

It wasn't my comment, but since you asked ...

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/20...2_137366.shtml
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-break...5917-9489r.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3512088.stm

That was easy

[fantastic flying froggies]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It wasn't my comment, but since you asked ...

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/20...2_137366.shtml
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-break...5917-9489r.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3512088.stm

That was easy

All I can say to that is F@ckin' sh*t ! I can tell you that this is something that is definitely not advertised over here in France, and especially surprising since we''re supposed to be friends with Taiwan, (read, they buy our weapons...) Very surprising indeed...

[cincyreds]

this could get scary in a hurry if we don't watch out.

[Easy Mac]

WHoever asked if China could not invade Taiwan, that is pretty much correct. They currently do not have the acquatic (sp?) ability to attack Taiwan. They don't have the carriers or ships needed to effectively carry out an attack on Taiwan, and it wouldn't do enough to constantly send missiles at tehm. Kind of like why the buildup to Iraq took a while. We could have easily just bombed the heck out of Iraq, but we needed people there to actually do something.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

WHoever asked if China could not invade Taiwan, that is pretty much correct. They currently do not have the acquatic (sp?) ability to attack Taiwan. They don't have the carriers or ships needed to effectively carry out an attack on Taiwan, and it wouldn't do enough to constantly send missiles at tehm. Kind of like why the buildup to Iraq took a while. We could have easily just bombed the heck out of Iraq, but we needed people there to actually do something.

They are in the process of building three carriers and the assocaited groups.The firt one will be out to sea next year.

[Franklinnoble]

I don't think China would invade Taiwan... I can't imagine the USA would be the only nation to object to this course of action.

[jeff061]

But the US would be the only one to do something other than talk.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by jeff061

But the US would be the only one to do something other than talk.

Eh... I dunno... if China got aggressive, I could see Russia getting involved.

[Daimyo]

Just about 50% of the people in Taiwan are totally against Taiwanese independence, so I think its a little quick to jump to the conclusion that China must be responsible for this.

Secondly, at least from my personal experience visiting China, it seems to me there are so many American companies dependent on China right now that there would be a pretty powerful lobby against any sort of US-China conflict or economic sanctions.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by fantastic flying froggies

All I can say to that is F@ckin' sh*t ! I can tell you that this is something that is definitely not advertised over here in France, and especially surprising since we''re supposed to be friends with Taiwan, (read, they buy our weapons...) Very surprising indeed...

Apparently $40 Billion ( http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/fron.../17/2003106520 ) is what it took.

[KevinNU7]