If you're on the fence about the war, look at this...

astralhaze · 03-26-2003, 03:43 AM

http://www.dear_raed.blogspot.com/

CamEdwards · 03-26-2003, 05:54 AM

I've been reading this blog for some time now. It's pretty interesting, but as is the case with most blogs, it's like listening to a monlogue and not being able to ask questions.

For instance, at one point he says "Today before noon I went out with my cousin to take a look at the city. Two things. 1) the attacks are precise. 2) they are attacking targets which are just too close to civilian areas in Baghdad. Looked at the Salam palace and the houses around it. Quite scary near it and you can see widows with broken glass till very far off."

No mention of the fact that Hussein has placed these military targets in the middle of civilian areas. No mention of the fact that broken windows are a hell of a lot better than broken people.

And then, of course, there's the whole matter of is this real? Despite news stories to the contrary, there's been no definitive evidence to show that this guy is really in Iraq.

It's interesting reading, but as with everything on the internet, take it with a handful of salt grains.

astralhaze · 03-26-2003, 06:01 AM

Certainly, it could be fake, but it reads like it is legit. If it is the real thing, it is certainly a very different view of the Iraqi people than the one presented by most of the media and the administration. The writer is intelligent, quite Westernized, and very much in favor of democracy. However, he is also against the war.

CamEdwards · 03-26-2003, 06:24 AM

and you could read several news stories of Iraqi civilians who don't have access to the internet that seem to be in favor of the war.

I'm just not sure what this proves. After all, on the internet no one knows you're a dog.

astralhaze · 03-26-2003, 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by CamEdwards
and you could read several news stories of Iraqi civilians who don't have access to the internet that seem to be in favor of the war.

I'm just not sure what this proves. After all, on the internet no one knows you're a dog.

It proves, if it is true, that there are Iraqi's outside of Hussein's cronies who are not in favor of being "liberated", even if it means Saddam remains in power.

CamEdwards · 03-26-2003, 06:40 AM

I think that's overstating your case by quite a bit. And again, if the best evidence for massive amounts of anti-Saddam/anti-war Iraqi civilians is a blog that may or may not be true... I'd say your case isn't all that strong.

astralhaze · 03-26-2003, 06:58 AM

The only news we get on the opinion of the Iraqi civilians is from interviews with expatriots, which are naturaly going to be in favor of the war since they chose to leave the country. By the same token, I am sure there are Cubans who support Castro but we only hear the views of Cuban-American who left the country. Almost universaly they call for his ouster. (note to far righters, that is simply a comparasin, I am in no way promoting Fidel Castro, or his beard).

Additionaly, this is not just any Iraqi. This writer is well educated, in favor of democracy, quite fond of western culture, and clearly able to spot PR. If this man is not in favor of the war, I'm not sure what that says about the future of Iraq after the war is over. This should be exactly the type of person that the U.S. should want to be favoring the war, assuming that it really is an operation for Iraqi freedom. Again, this is assuming that is the real deal.

The validity of the blog, of course, cannot be verified, but there are details that make it seem very convincing. He frequently misspells English words, types fluently in Arabic (or so I have read as I certainly don't speak it), mentions details about Iraq that few people outside of the country would seem likely to know (even details that he mentioned before they became known to the world at large), and is quite obviously young and very "hip" with Western culture. I guess the question I would have is who would fake it and why? If it is a fake, the writer has very good connections for information and is also exceptionaly intelligent. It is either a very meticulous and convincing cointel job by some group or intelligence agency or it is the real deal. My personal bias leads me to the latter.

astralhaze · 03-26-2003, 07:06 AM

dola* - I realize that the Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north are very much in favor of the war. I would be as well if I were in their shoes.

* copright FOFC long-termers

CamEdwards · 03-26-2003, 08:12 PM

You know, I've been doing more thinking on this.

Let's say that this is for real. Here you have an Iraqi who can afford not just a personal computer but internet access. He's someone who is obviously not one of the millions who cannot even afford food to eat. Since we know there's not much of a middle class in Iraq, the chances are good that this individual is on the good side of the Iraqi regime. In fact, I'd say if this website is not a fake, there's a chance that this individual might be a part of the Ministry of Information.

Even if he's not, even if he's just one of the few Iraqis lucky enough to be able to afford these things, of course he's not going to support military action against Saddam Hussein. Things aren't bad enough for him to want change at any cost.

You mentioned the expatriates, but I was speaking earlier about the Iraqis who've been able to speak their mind once they feel safe. To a man, woman, and child they've said thank you to the troops.

You also say you realize that the Kurds in the north and the Shia in the south support the war. Do you not realize that those two groups make up a vast majority of the population of Iraq?

CamEdwards · 03-28-2003, 04:49 PM

just wanted to bump this... I just read an article in the NY Times that mentioned 60 percent of Iraqis are 100% dependent on aid for food. I'm guessing they don't have internet access and home computers, which just makes me more and more curious as to what Salam Pax does for a living.

Maple Leafs · 03-28-2003, 05:08 PM

I expect this is real. I believe this war will be in the ultimate best interest of Iraqis, but I don't think it's realistic to expect them to be 100% in agreement about that. It's interesting to read the thoughts of an anti-war Iraqi, just like it is to hear the pro-war side.

I admit I find a lot of what he writes to be strange... so much suffering in Iraq, and it's the destruction of a building that brings him to tears? But I guess I'm not in his shoes.

dawgfan · 03-28-2003, 06:23 PM

This thread, and the blog astralhaze linked to, reminds of the old adage about "the devil you know vs. the devil you don't".

Consider this - ever since the original Gulf War, if not before, Iraqis have undoubtably been exposed to a tremendous amount of anti-U.S. propoganda; you could also make a pretty convincing argument that the same thing has happened in mirrored form in this country, but I digress. For over a decade Iraqis have had the U.S. and the West in general presented to them as evil, imperialist countries with a hatred for arabs.

While I have no doubts that Saddam runs a viscious and brutal regime that is extremely intolerant of dissent, I think many in this country, including our current President and his advisors, has overestimated the extent to which the Iraqi people are willing to greet the U.S.-led forces with open arms.

Saddam and his government may be brutal thugs, but they're still Iraqis, of similar ethnicity and cultural background to the majority of citizens of that country. Contrasted to that you have these westerners that are invading their country, ostensibly to "liberate" the Iraqi people by removing Saddam from power, eliminating WoMD (if they in fact exist) and cease Iraqi governmental support of Al Qaeda and other anti-Western terrorist groups (if any such connection ever existed). This of course is not the reasoning that Iraqi television/radio and other regional Arabic media are presenting for the invasion; in their view, this is an unprovoked, illegal act of aggression against a sovereign country with imperialist and anti-Arab values driving it.

I have no doubt that some Iraqi citizens will welcome the coalition forces. At doubt though is how many - I fear a significant portion may be prone to weighing the benefits of the devil you know (Saddam) vs. the devil you don't (the West). For many, pride in their country and their culture are undoubtably weighing heavily in their hearts as they decide whether to be happy to see these westerners invading their country and killing their brothers. Add in the focus Iraq has placed on civilian casualties from coalition attacks (acknowledging that the numbers, severity and intent have likely been fudged by Iraqi and arab media) and you have a recipe for a populace that is unlikely to be as welcoming as Rumsfeld and his cronies expected/hoped when planning this war.

I'm sure Cam will pipe in with his talk of Iraqi ex-nationals in this country that condemn Saddam and his regime. My response: while I appreciate their opinions, they are in fact a self-selected group that cannot be claimed as representative of the country as a whole.

CamEdwards · 03-28-2003, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by dawgfan

I'm sure Cam will pipe in with his talk of Iraqi ex-nationals in this country that condemn Saddam and his regime. My response: while I appreciate their opinions, they are in fact a self-selected group that cannot be claimed as representative of the country as a whole.

I'm not sure what you mean by self selected, but I wasn't going to bring them up anyway. What I was going to say is that there are two groups of people currently living in Iraq who aren't welcoming Americans with open arms.

1-People who are afraid of retribution. We've seen enough credible reports to know that people are afraid of Saddam. They're afraid we're going to leave without finishing the job. They know that the fedayeen and the Special Republican Guards (state secret police) are everywhere. Once they feel safe, they're expressing their happiness and joy that we're there.

2-People who have nothing to gain and much to lose by Saddam losing power. There's a certain amount of the population who will be worse off once Saddam is gone. They're the people who've benefited from his regime. Obviously they're not going to be friendly to our cause.

Again, I'll point out that more than half of the population of Iraq is 100% dependent on handouts for food, much less consumer goods. Salam Pax, whoever he is, has a personal computer and internet access. I'm guessing that his life isn't that bad, relatively speaking. In fact, in Iraq I'm guessing Salam Pax is living the good life. Of course he doesn't want war. Why would he want to risk losing his comfort just to be rid of a dictator who doesn't bother him?

I just think before we lap up his words we need to consider where he's coming from. The real story of Iraq can't be told through a blog, because the real story of Iraq doesn't have a computer.

dawgfan · 03-28-2003, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by CamEdwards
I'm not sure what you mean by self selected, but I wasn't going to bring them up anyway.

It means that those who have fled Iraq for America are highly likely to be the same people who a) don't like Saddam and b) who don't fear America. I don't mean to diminish their feelings, because I'm sure there are more in Iraq that would flee to the West if they could, but by the same token they don't necessarily represent all or even a majority of Iraqis.

Quote:

Originally posted by CamEdwards
What I was going to say is that there are two groups of people currently living in Iraq who aren't welcoming Americans with open arms.

1-People who are afraid of retribution. We've seen enough credible reports to know that people are afraid of Saddam. They're afraid we're going to leave without finishing the job. They know that the fedayeen and the Special Republican Guards (state secret police) are everywhere. Once they feel safe, they're expressing their happiness and joy that we're there.

2-People who have nothing to gain and much to lose by Saddam losing power. There's a certain amount of the population who will be worse off once Saddam is gone. They're the people who've benefited from his regime. Obviously they're not going to be friendly to our cause.

Are these really the only two groups that aren't welcoming the Coalition? I'll paraphrase my original post - due to a multitude of factors, including Iraqi state-run media propoganda, cultural mistrust of America etc. I believe there are a number of people in Iraq that fear the West just as much as they despise Saddam, and given the choice would rather fight the Americans invading their country than stand-up to Saddam.

Quote:

Originally posted by CamEdwards
Again, I'll point out that more than half of the population of Iraq is 100% dependent on handouts for food, much less consumer goods. Salam Pax, whoever he is, has a personal computer and internet access. I'm guessing that his life isn't that bad, relatively speaking. In fact, in Iraq I'm guessing Salam Pax is living the good life. Of course he doesn't want war. Why would he want to risk losing his comfort just to be rid of a dictator who doesn't bother him?

I just think before we lap up his words we need to consider where he's coming from. The real story of Iraq can't be told through a blog, because the real story of Iraq doesn't have a computer.

I make no claims about what Salam's inherent bias may be, or even if his reports are real and truthful. However I'm convinced that many in this country, including those who planned this war, severely overestimated the degree to which the Iraqi population would welcome our invasion into their country, regardless of how horrible life under Saddam may be.

03-26-2003, 05:54 AM	#2
CamEdwards Stadium Announcer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Burke, VA	I've been reading this blog for some time now. It's pretty interesting, but as is the case with most blogs, it's like listening to a monlogue and not being able to ask questions. For instance, at one point he says "Today before noon I went out with my cousin to take a look at the city. Two things. 1) the attacks are precise. 2) they are attacking targets which are just too close to civilian areas in Baghdad. Looked at the Salam palace and the houses around it. Quite scary near it and you can see widows with broken glass till very far off." No mention of the fact that Hussein has placed these military targets in the middle of civilian areas. No mention of the fact that broken windows are a hell of a lot better than broken people. And then, of course, there's the whole matter of is this real? Despite news stories to the contrary, there's been no definitive evidence to show that this guy is really in Iraq. It's interesting reading, but as with everything on the internet, take it with a handful of salt grains. __________________ I don't want the world. I just want your half.

03-26-2003, 06:01 AM	#3
astralhaze College Prospect Join Date: Dec 2002	Certainly, it could be fake, but it reads like it is legit. If it is the real thing, it is certainly a very different view of the Iraqi people than the one presented by most of the media and the administration. The writer is intelligent, quite Westernized, and very much in favor of democracy. However, he is also against the war. __________________ I can understand Brutus at every meaning, but that parahraphy threw me for a loop.

03-26-2003, 06:24 AM	#4
CamEdwards Stadium Announcer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Burke, VA	and you could read several news stories of Iraqi civilians who don't have access to the internet that seem to be in favor of the war. I'm just not sure what this proves. After all, on the internet no one knows you're a dog. __________________ I don't want the world. I just want your half.

03-26-2003, 06:40 AM	#6
CamEdwards Stadium Announcer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Burke, VA	I think that's overstating your case by quite a bit. And again, if the best evidence for massive amounts of anti-Saddam/anti-war Iraqi civilians is a blog that may or may not be true... I'd say your case isn't all that strong. __________________ I don't want the world. I just want your half. Last edited by CamEdwards : 03-26-2003 at 06:41 AM.

03-26-2003, 06:58 AM	#7
astralhaze College Prospect Join Date: Dec 2002	The only news we get on the opinion of the Iraqi civilians is from interviews with expatriots, which are naturaly going to be in favor of the war since they chose to leave the country. By the same token, I am sure there are Cubans who support Castro but we only hear the views of Cuban-American who left the country. Almost universaly they call for his ouster. (note to far righters, that is simply a comparasin, I am in no way promoting Fidel Castro, or his beard). Additionaly, this is not just any Iraqi. This writer is well educated, in favor of democracy, quite fond of western culture, and clearly able to spot PR. If this man is not in favor of the war, I'm not sure what that says about the future of Iraq after the war is over. This should be exactly the type of person that the U.S. should want to be favoring the war, assuming that it really is an operation for Iraqi freedom. Again, this is assuming that is the real deal. The validity of the blog, of course, cannot be verified, but there are details that make it seem very convincing. He frequently misspells English words, types fluently in Arabic (or so I have read as I certainly don't speak it), mentions details about Iraq that few people outside of the country would seem likely to know (even details that he mentioned before they became known to the world at large), and is quite obviously young and very "hip" with Western culture. I guess the question I would have is who would fake it and why? If it is a fake, the writer has very good connections for information and is also exceptionaly intelligent. It is either a very meticulous and convincing cointel job by some group or intelligence agency or it is the real deal. My personal bias leads me to the latter. __________________ I can understand Brutus at every meaning, but that parahraphy threw me for a loop.

03-26-2003, 07:06 AM	#8
astralhaze College Prospect Join Date: Dec 2002	dola* - I realize that the Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north are very much in favor of the war. I would be as well if I were in their shoes. * copright FOFC long-termers __________________ I can understand Brutus at every meaning, but that parahraphy threw me for a loop.

03-26-2003, 08:12 PM	#9
CamEdwards Stadium Announcer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Burke, VA	You know, I've been doing more thinking on this. Let's say that this is for real. Here you have an Iraqi who can afford not just a personal computer but internet access. He's someone who is obviously not one of the millions who cannot even afford food to eat. Since we know there's not much of a middle class in Iraq, the chances are good that this individual is on the good side of the Iraqi regime. In fact, I'd say if this website is not a fake, there's a chance that this individual might be a part of the Ministry of Information. Even if he's not, even if he's just one of the few Iraqis lucky enough to be able to afford these things, of course he's not going to support military action against Saddam Hussein. Things aren't bad enough for him to want change at any cost. You mentioned the expatriates, but I was speaking earlier about the Iraqis who've been able to speak their mind once they feel safe. To a man, woman, and child they've said thank you to the troops. You also say you realize that the Kurds in the north and the Shia in the south support the war. Do you not realize that those two groups make up a vast majority of the population of Iraq? __________________ I don't want the world. I just want your half.

03-28-2003, 04:49 PM	#10
CamEdwards Stadium Announcer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Burke, VA	just wanted to bump this... I just read an article in the NY Times that mentioned 60 percent of Iraqis are 100% dependent on aid for food. I'm guessing they don't have internet access and home computers, which just makes me more and more curious as to what Salam Pax does for a living. __________________ I don't want the world. I just want your half.

03-28-2003, 05:08 PM	#11
Maple Leafs Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2002	I expect this is real. I believe this war will be in the ultimate best interest of Iraqis, but I don't think it's realistic to expect them to be 100% in agreement about that. It's interesting to read the thoughts of an anti-war Iraqi, just like it is to hear the pro-war side. I admit I find a lot of what he writes to be strange... so much suffering in Iraq, and it's the destruction of a building that brings him to tears? But I guess I'm not in his shoes.

03-28-2003, 06:23 PM	#12
dawgfan Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Seattle	This thread, and the blog astralhaze linked to, reminds of the old adage about "the devil you know vs. the devil you don't". Consider this - ever since the original Gulf War, if not before, Iraqis have undoubtably been exposed to a tremendous amount of anti-U.S. propoganda; you could also make a pretty convincing argument that the same thing has happened in mirrored form in this country, but I digress. For over a decade Iraqis have had the U.S. and the West in general presented to them as evil, imperialist countries with a hatred for arabs. While I have no doubts that Saddam runs a viscious and brutal regime that is extremely intolerant of dissent, I think many in this country, including our current President and his advisors, has overestimated the extent to which the Iraqi people are willing to greet the U.S.-led forces with open arms. Saddam and his government may be brutal thugs, but they're still Iraqis, of similar ethnicity and cultural background to the majority of citizens of that country. Contrasted to that you have these westerners that are invading their country, ostensibly to "liberate" the Iraqi people by removing Saddam from power, eliminating WoMD (if they in fact exist) and cease Iraqi governmental support of Al Qaeda and other anti-Western terrorist groups (if any such connection ever existed). This of course is not the reasoning that Iraqi television/radio and other regional Arabic media are presenting for the invasion; in their view, this is an unprovoked, illegal act of aggression against a sovereign country with imperialist and anti-Arab values driving it. I have no doubt that some Iraqi citizens will welcome the coalition forces. At doubt though is how many - I fear a significant portion may be prone to weighing the benefits of the devil you know (Saddam) vs. the devil you don't (the West). For many, pride in their country and their culture are undoubtably weighing heavily in their hearts as they decide whether to be happy to see these westerners invading their country and killing their brothers. Add in the focus Iraq has placed on civilian casualties from coalition attacks (acknowledging that the numbers, severity and intent have likely been fudged by Iraqi and arab media) and you have a recipe for a populace that is unlikely to be as welcoming as Rumsfeld and his cronies expected/hoped when planning this war. I'm sure Cam will pipe in with his talk of Iraqi ex-nationals in this country that condemn Saddam and his regime. My response: while I appreciate their opinions, they are in fact a self-selected group that cannot be claimed as representative of the country as a whole.

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