The Official NBA 2016 Offseason Thread

[murrayyyyy]

So if you are Ainge, are you on the phone with OKC checking if they are in blow up mode yet offering those 1st round picks (both Nets and maybe the Memphis or LAC one) for Westbrook?

[Chief Rum]

Going out on a limb... the Warriors will not win the championship next year.

No reason other than whenever this stuff happens, it almost never happens the first season. Celtics in 2008 the only one I can immediately recall.

Taking my talents to South Beach failed the first year. Payton and Malone to the Lakers failed. The Spurs talent stack of 2016 failed. Cavs 2014 failed.

I think in the space of two years it is much more likely the Warriors win a championship...except KD will exercise his option and no one will have a Birds Rights advantage to sign him, meaning he could very well leave in just one year (which is what the Clips were selling him on, although I don't know why you would leave the Warriors younger big three for the Clips big three).

[nol]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

So if you are Ainge, are you on the phone with OKC checking if they are in blow up mode yet offering those 1st round picks (both Nets and maybe the Memphis or LAC one) for Westbrook?

Definitely, but unlike Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook is a legitimate MVP-level player who could dominate a playoff series by himself or singlehandedly take a bad team to the playoffs. The same old "it's too much to give up Jae Crowder and a first round pick for an All-NBA player" mentality is not likely to get anything done.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Taking my talents to South Beach failed the first year. Payton and Malone to the Lakers failed. The Spurs talent stack of 2016 failed. Cavs 2014 failed.

That failed because the teams weren't good. Payton and Malone to the Lakers failed because Kobe thought he was the best player on a championship team when he wasn't even close (22.6 ppg on 38% shooting in the finals). Gary Payton and Karl Malone were certainly much better than what you could expect for the average players who make as much as they did. Hell, Karl Malone had a much better season at age 40 than what Julius Randle did at 21, and there seem to be a lot of people who think Randle is some essential building block for the future.

Miami would have easily won the title if the Heat weren't stuck on the whole idea that your shortest player, regardless of basketball playing ability, should bring the ball up the court. As a result, over-the-hill Mike Bibby got torched by J.J. Barea while contributing less than nothing on offense when LeBron James or Dwyane Wade could have been facilitating things. Even then, you're considering a team that loses in the finals while not even being above the luxury tax to be a "failure." There's a pretty big difference between having 3 of the top 15 players and 4 of the top 12 players assuming everyone's healthy.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not saying there aren't very good reasons for me to be wrong. That's why they call it going out on a limb.

I'm just looking at what seems to happen in these situations, and quite often, it doesn't all work out the way everyone assumes it will. In fact, very often.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm not saying there aren't very good reasons for me to be wrong. That's why they call it going out on a limb.

I'm just looking at what seems to happen in these situations, and quite often, it doesn't all work out the way everyone assumes it will. In fact, very often.

They could lose because people get injured. Beyond that, this is a team that won a record number of regular season games, lost the finals in 7 games because LeBron James had the best individual performance of all time, and is replacing an average player with one of the 2-3 best players in the league. Certainly a pretty big difference between the Lakers (coming off back-to-back second round exits that weren't even close) trading Andrew Bynum and all their future-first round picks to acquire 38-year-old Steve Nash and Dwight Howard coming off back surgery and the 73-win Warriors signing Kevin Durant in his prime.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

They drafted Damian Jones, but Speights is really the only big veteran they still have.

Actually, it looks like Speights is also a free agent. So they have Damian Jones and that's it in terms of big men.

[Vince, Pt. II]

With regard to the Warriors and their performance next year - I'd imagine there will be far fewer wins in the regular season, and lots of talk about how the team is worse off for getting Durant, all largely because of a much, much weaker bench. Once the playoffs start, and rotations get shorter and minutes get longer for the starters, however, the team will start to look unbeatable again.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

With regard to the Warriors and their performance next year - I'd imagine there will be far fewer wins in the regular season, and lots of talk about how the team is worse off for getting Durant, all largely because of a much, much weaker bench. Once the playoffs start, and rotations get shorter and minutes get longer for the starters, however, the team will start to look unbeatable again.

Not even sure if I'd go that far. The Warriors would have 4/5ths of team USA's starting lineup this summer if everyone played, and it's 100 percent guaranteed that after this year the team would rather rest guys throughout the season than go for 73-74 regular season wins. Hard see how the team winning fewer regular season games could be interpreted as anything bad given how much retrospective analysis there was regarding the Warriors going for 73 even when Steph Curry got injured by slipping on a sweat puddle that had come into existence two seconds prior.

But as I've been saying from the start, the players they have to get rid of in order to bring in Durant are good enought that the team would have been significantly worse with Nic Batum or anyone else besides LeBron in Durant's place.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

With regard to the Warriors and their performance next year - I'd imagine there will be far fewer wins in the regular season, and lots of talk about how the team is worse off for getting Durant, all largely because of a much, much weaker bench. Once the playoffs start, and rotations get shorter and minutes get longer for the starters, however, the team will start to look unbeatable again.

Their win total was only 60 I think this last year with respect to gambling. I'll be interested in what number pops up this year (guessing 64).

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Their win total was only 60 I think this last year with respect to gambling. I'll be interested in what number pops up this year (guessing 64).

Pelton's RPM projection for them last year was 60 and assuming they fill the roster with replacement level players they're sitting at 66 right now.

I seriously doubt they top 73, but somewhere in the 68-70 range seems about right.

[nilodor]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Actually, it looks like Speights is also a free agent. So they have Damian Jones and that's it in terms of big men.

Kinda seems like a big deal. I get that if KD is interested that you get him and sort the rest out later, but the rest seems kinda interesting. I don't think you want to roll 82 games with Green at C and Durant at the 4. That's a lot of wear and tear on those guys. I guess you could play Iggy at the 4, but again, that's a pretty big load for a guy with a bad back who you'll need to take the top wings in the playoffs. Maybe you just say, each guy is taking less of an offensive burden so they can deliver more on defense?

Not like it's going to break them, but could be an interesting subplot.

[Kodos]

Disappointed that Durant didn't stay in OKC. Would've been fun to watch him, Westbrook, and Oladipo together.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Going out on a limb... the Warriors will not win the championship next year.

No reason other than whenever this stuff happens, it almost never happens the first season. Celtics in 2008 the only one I can immediately recall.

Taking my talents to South Beach failed the first year. Payton and Malone to the Lakers failed. The Spurs talent stack of 2016 failed. Cavs 2014 failed.

I think in the space of two years it is much more likely the Warriors win a championship...except KD will exercise his option and no one will have a Birds Rights advantage to sign him, meaning he could very well leave in just one year (which is what the Clips were selling him on, although I don't know why you would leave the Warriors younger big three for the Clips big three).

Anything that involves the Warriors you can just disregard history and precedent. That stuff just goes out the window.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Warriors will either nearly sweep the playoffs or Lebron beats them again in the finals cementing his status over MJ.

[nol]

Originally Posted by nilodor

Kinda seems like a big deal. I get that if KD is interested that you get him and sort the rest out later, but the rest seems kinda interesting. I don't think you want to roll 82 games with Green at C and Durant at the 4. That's a lot of wear and tear on those guys. I guess you could play Iggy at the 4, but again, that's a pretty big load for a guy with a bad back who you'll need to take the top wings in the playoffs. Maybe you just say, each guy is taking less of an offensive burden so they can deliver more on defense?

Not like it's going to break them, but could be an interesting subplot.

I'm pretty sure the idea is that you could roll out some minimum-salary center and still do pretty well during the regular season, and that at that point whether or not you have home-court advantage is essentially meaningless if your 4 best players are that much better than the opposition's.

And of course even bigger than that is the idea that Steph Curry or Draymond Green could have been injured last year, which would have led to a second-round playoff exit. At this point, they could lose one of the three best players in the league and still be favored to reach the NBA Finals.

[JPhillips]

I was hoping KD would pick Boston, but OMG are Boston fans losing their shit. How dare KD go to a good organization with excellent co-workers. It's like giving a person shit because they took a job at Google rather than Myspace.

[nol]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I was hoping KD would pick Boston, but OMG are Boston fans losing their shit. How dare KD go to a good organization with excellent co-workers. It's like giving a person shit because they took a job at Google rather than Myspace.

Yep, and then imagine what Cleveland fans thought of LeBron in 2010 even though he led them to more team success despite significantly more incompetent front office management.

[Sublime 2]

For the Celtics, getting a seat at the table and having a legitimate shot at KD this weekend was pretty freakin awesome. I think it speaks to the anti-tank process that they a) got Horford and b) were a player in the KD sweepstakes.

Not sure where they go from here, whether it's fill the remaining roster with 1+1 contracts like Amir last year or re-acquainting themselves with the trade market.

Guys who I think could help and may still be attainable:
Gallo
Noel
Either Gasol
Ezeli

Not saying any of them are game-changers, but helpful pieces to progress. If I had my druthers, swing for the fences again to try and get Cousins/Griffin/Butler...Westbrook too (just don't see it happening).

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by nol

Yep, and then imagine what Cleveland fans thought of LeBron in 2010 even though he led them to more team success despite significantly more incompetent front office management.

I actually just went back and read the 2010 offseason thread again for entertainment.

The amount of hate Lebron got for doing what KD just did was hilarious.


EDIT: Durant's tweet taking a shot at Lebron and others joining "superteams" is hilarious in hindsight as well.

Now everybody wanna play for the heat and the Lakers? Let's go back to being competitive and going at these peoples!

— Kevin Durant (@KDTrey5) July 16, 2010

[nol]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I actually just went back and read the 2010 offseason thread again for entertainment.

The amount of hate Lebron got for doing what KD just did was hilarious.

Exactly, and even in 2014 just the fact that he didn't sign his deal at the earliest possible date was reason for him being the devil. How dare he make other free agents take another day or two to make their decision?

[nol]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

For the Celtics, getting a seat at the table and having a legitimate shot at KD this weekend was pretty freakin awesome. I think it speaks to the anti-tank process that they a) got Horford and b) were a player in the KD sweepstakes.

Just like how the Phoenix Suns' meetings with Tyson Chandler and LaMarcus Aldridge spoke to their willingnesss to not tank?

[wustin]

It would be funny if Mark Cuban's plan was try to put Golden State in a pinch by giving that offer sheet to Barnes and didn't want Barnes on the team.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by wustin

Mahinmi is like 29-30 years old, never averaged double figure scoring in his career and they gave him a 4-year deal. I would be pissed if I was Wall.

Wall wanted a rim protector, he got a rim protector.

[wustin]

Teams are paying 8 figures to bring in centers. GSW paid less than 3M to bring in a center who was almost an all-star.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by wustin

It would be funny if Mark Cuban's plan was try to put Golden State in a pinch by giving that offer sheet to Barnes and didn't want Barnes on the team.

If that were the case it would be strange if they took on Bogut to help GSW.

Warriors should obviously win a handful of titles, but they lose some versatility... lack of scoring wasn't exactly their big weakness last season, and although Durant/Curry/Klay/Green will power them through just about anything, certain matchups could give them problems.... but I'd say they win 3 of the next 5 titles, if they avoid injuries.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

You mean like this?

Exactly like that.

I think this is going to prove a bit of a gold mine for good teams that want to boost their benches with rotation-quality guys, to be honest. EU teams won't be able to compete financially with some of the money that's floating around.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Kevin Durant and Zaza Pachulia? What a day. That's insane to get Pachulia for $2.9 million with the money that is being thrown around. This is absurd.

[Groundhog]

I like Zaza and he's probably been underrated/undervalued for years and years, and that's definitely a steal. Don't think he really comes close to replacing what they lose in Bogut, though.

[wustin]

You can't ask for much more if you're paying $7M less than what you would for Bogut.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I agree with all of the things both of you just said.

[whomario]

Zaza might also still be able to get big money next year if he doesnt lay an egg. Seems to be a great teammate as well. Good passer as well.

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

For the Celtics, getting a seat at the table and having a legitimate shot at KD this weekend was pretty freakin awesome. I think it speaks to the anti-tank process that they a) got Horford and b) were a player in the KD sweepstakes.

Not sure where they go from here, whether it's fill the remaining roster with 1+1 contracts like Amir last year or re-acquainting themselves with the trade market.

Guys who I think could help and may still be attainable:
Gallo
Noel
Either Gasol
Ezeli

Not saying any of them are game-changers, but helpful pieces to progress. If I had my druthers, swing for the fences again to try and get Cousins/Griffin/Butler...Westbrook too (just don't see it happening).

I would love to see Gallo in Boston, great fit imo. Pau reportedly signing with the Spurs, no way Memphis trades Marc after going all in with Conleys max, his value would be diminished due to the injury as well.

Zaza would have actually been a decent target ... Ezeli i dont think works offensively the way Stevens wants to play.

Motiejunas could still be worth a look

[wustin]

Seth Curry finalizing deal to go to the Mavs

Mavs starting lineup about to be a poverty GSW team.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by wustin

Mahinmi is like 29-30 years old, never averaged double figure scoring in his career and they gave him a 4-year deal. I would be pissed if I was Wall.

He's one of the best defensive Centers in the league.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Going out on a limb... the Warriors will not win the championship next year.

No reason other than whenever this stuff happens, it almost never happens the first season. Celtics in 2008 the only one I can immediately recall.

Taking my talents to South Beach failed the first year. Payton and Malone to the Lakers failed. The Spurs talent stack of 2016 failed. Cavs 2014 failed.

I think in the space of two years it is much more likely the Warriors win a championship...except KD will exercise his option and no one will have a Birds Rights advantage to sign him, meaning he could very well leave in just one year (which is what the Clips were selling him on, although I don't know why you would leave the Warriors younger big three for the Clips big three).

This team is light years ahead of Miami. And Malone/Payton were washed up/hurt on that Lakers team.

It's the greatest team ever assembled. Honestly should be a cake walk.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by wustin

Seth Curry finalizing deal to go to the Mavs

Mavs starting lineup about to be a poverty GSW team.

They totally should sign Mychel Thompson.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's the greatest team ever assembled. Honestly should be a cake walk.

It should be, yeah. Not as well balanced as last year's team overall I don't think (barring other moves), and it wasn't like it was GSW's lack of firepower that lost them the Finals. Makes them nearly impossible to guard, sure, because you don't just "live" with Durant taking those open shots like you did with Barnes while looking out for Curry/Klay, but on the other end of the court I think it's probably a few steps backwards come playoff time when you need someone like Bogut more than you do in the regular season.

Still, they should be able to out-shoot everybody on their way to multiple titles (assuming they avoid injuries) regardless.

[CU Tiger]

Is it just me or does the "avoid injuries" qualifier seem much larger than many want to accept? Both Curry and Durant have missed time each of the last 2 years with various semi minor injuries. In order to acquire Durant the Warriors just depleted their depth.

I'm certain they are a better 1 or even 7 game team now, b it are they a better 82 game team?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Is it just me or does the "avoid injuries" qualifier seem much larger than many want to accept? Both Curry and Durant have missed time each of the last 2 years with various semi minor injuries. In order to acquire Durant the Warriors just depleted their depth.

I'm certain they are a better 1 or even 7 game team now, b it are they a better 82 game team?

If they both go down at the same time then, yeah, I see more problems over 82 games than they had last year. If only one at a time though, honestly, in this instance I don't think it changes things much.

Durant is such an upgrade that I believe it should more than wash out the loss of some depth even over 82 games.

Now, that said, I think they'll lose quite a few more regular season games than they did last year regardless of injury. I figure they'll manage minutes differently throughout the season,not get quite the insane career year from Curry, etc etc.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Here's the other thing - let's say they are a worse 82 game team. How much worse? 10 games worse? That's 63 wins. Which is in the playoffs. And if you're better in a 7 game series than before, that's an upgrade.

[jbergey22]

Warriors will probably win less games just because of regression to the mean. In order for them to have broken the win record last year so many variables went their way(injuries, luck, schedule, etc...) that will likely flip the other direction this year. They overshot their Pythagorean Wins by 8 games this past year. If the addition of Durant adds a couple wins to their Pythagorean Wins they would still have to have another season of surpassing Pythagorean Wins by a high rate.

[CU Tiger]

Oh I agree, they improved their team.
I dont think they are unbeatable, however.

Prohibitive favorite today?
Sure.

And I don think BOTH have to go down. Just look at these finals. Take Curry out and construct your new lineup with this new roster. Now with the old. Starting 5 is better. But are Thompson, Green and Durant all playing 45= minutes?

[jbergey22]

Come playoff time Durant is going to be crucial. The way he can breakdown the defense and kick to Curry/Thompson will make that team a nightmare to guard. Teams arent going to be able to overplay Curry/Thompson like they did this past playoffs.

[Vince, Pt. II]

How accurate is the Pythagorean record though? Curry sat out the entire fourth quarter of nearly 20 games, not to mention the rest other starters had.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

How accurate is the Pythagorean record though? Curry sat out the entire fourth quarter of nearly 20 games, not to mention the rest other starters had.

Certainly not as accurate as it is for baseball. And yes the starters sitting out the 4th will effect the bottom line. You will see a larger variance with Pythagorean Wins in the NBA with a smaller schedule over MLB with a larger schedule.

Still though it did seem like Golden State caught a nice break this past season with scheduling(not too many tough games on the back ends of back to back games) and facing teams that were missing key players with injuries. Not taking anything away from them cause they still had to go out and get it done but hard to catch them breaks two straight years.

[miami_fan]

So Wade to the Nuggets and then trade to Cleveland is a thing now?

[wustin]

Westgate in Vegas is projecting 68.5 wins

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

So Wade to the Nuggets and then trade to Cleveland is a thing now?

They wouldn't be able to trade him until December 15th. I also don't know why Cleveland wants Wade. He ruins their spacing and is a worse offensive player than both Kyrie and LeBron but will want the ball in his hands as much as them.

[Arles]

I'll be fascinated to watch this Warriors team. I think they have some advantages over the 2008 Celtic and big 3 in Miami. They aren't adding 2-3 big pieces and changing their style. They are just upgrading a spot - although going from Barnes to KD as a small-ball 4 is akin to going from a ground chuck steak to filet mignon.

So, in theory, they should be where the Celtics and Heat were in years 2 and 3 of their progression. At this point, it just comes down to health and egos. As long as Steph and KD (not exactly the pictures of perfect health) can avoid injury, while Klay and Draymond are OK sharing the limelight - the sky is the limit.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by wustin

Westgate in Vegas is projecting 68.5 wins

only 66.5 @ William Hill.

73.5 is +450 with under that -600.

Durant is -175 for higher regular season scoring avg to Curry (interesting)

Warriors -150 vs Field +130 to win the title.

My phone hates the last Superbook mobile update so no clue there so I'll take RJ's word.

[murrayyyyy]

So Wade turns down 2/40 from Miami and cancels meetings with Bucks and others now. Banana boat going to Cleveland?

[miami_fan]

So what are owners more worried about when their players go on international duty? Injuries or the relationships that are formed that might rip apart their team later on?