WW LXXXVII Terror at the University :Game over, Wolves win!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

So hoops, any idea why Claps chared his list with you in private versus in the thread? Not really putting any suspicion on you. Your pretty chatty in general and I am sure you would chat it up with any PM scenario allowed.

Just in all honesty, since this list is his and did not get posted from him, it really doesn't hold much weight.

Claps? It was Jonathan's list who is now dead. I could easily see someone sending like this in PM, putting this list in public could have drawn backlack to him for the people that were not high on his trust list.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

So hoops, any idea why Claps chared his list with you in private versus in the thread? Not really putting any suspicion on you. Your pretty chatty in general and I am sure you would chat it up with any PM scenario allowed.

Just in all honesty, since this list is his and did not get posted from him, it really doesn't hold much weight.

Well, it was Jonathan's list (not Claps). And I had started a conversation with him in PMs about who came out looking good/bad from the D1 vote, baed on assumption that EF = bad and Jackal = good. Basically picking up on the vote listing that I compiled in the thread and asked other people to comment about.

From there, I sent him about five names that I thought came out looking good/bad, some of which I have already discussed in the thread (Heinz, you, Jeff) and some of which I have not mentioned publicly.

I did not put together the entire trust/distrust matrix yet because I only had JE at the middle of my trust list. He had put a vote on Jackal on D1. My reading of the deadline events had JE seeming very confident that EF was lying, something that I thought could be wolf/wolf scheming although that was obviously just an overly active imagination on my part. But I was looking to share some ideas with him in the interests of cultivating discussion.

For what it is worth, we probably swapped about ten PMs each back and forth over the two days. I'll miss chatting with him, as I thought we had some pretty good discussion going. JE isn't a guy that plays all the time, so it was fun getting a chance to talk with him.

Going back to the list, you can either believe it is his list or not. It does not really matter all that much to me either way. I shared it with the intent of providing insight from a guy who was clearly a villager, nothing more and nothing less.

[Grammaticus]

Sorry about that, I got it mixed up. For some reason I thought Jonathan had used the claphamsa name. I did mean Jonathan.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I used to be claphamsa :P

[Hannibal Lecter]

Then I ate him

[Grammaticus]

indigestion?

[The Jackal]

how bout them eagles.. i'm a redskins fan so i find it hard rooting for the eagles.. but screw the giants

on a more relevant note, is the only vote of the day so far heinz's?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

...on a more relevant note, is the only vote of the day so far heinz's?

yes

[Grammaticus]

At this point the deadline will be 10pm every day, right?

[Chief Rum]

Okay, after work and most of a weekend away, I am back and checking things out. Glad to see Danny's move was on the mark, and we got a wolf. As noted, EF's reveal did have an odd feel to it, although I can emphathize with the decision to reveal early if it were true--given how many times I have seen late reveals by actual roled players come too late to save them.

Looking through the various theories at the moment...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Pulling this up, shrinking the deceased or very very trusted

6 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135), DT (189), Hoops (196)
6 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164), Danny (194) Hannibal (229)
1 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51),
1 - Danny - Chief Rum (46)
no vote - Gramm

I'm not inclined to vote for anyone who voted for EF. Each vote was a "good" vote in terms of being at a pretty crucial time in the vote or early enough that it could've easily been switched to Jackal if they were a wolf.

That gives me a pool of

BK
Telle
Hannibal
RPI
CR
Gramm

As I've said before, I'm casting an eye towards Telle, but I can see a good honest villager motivation for her vote. Hannibal just seems too damn obvious. You'd have to be a Grade A dumbass wolf to switch there. CR I give a pass to as he stated his vote was locked from the get-go.

That leaves Gramm, RPI, BK.

I'm less inclined to vote Gramm. I just don't think it was that we had 2 outta 3 there. And if we did, and was on, wouldn't he just vote Jackal?

RPI or BK. I don't recall either being around much while I was on yesterday (I think I got 1-2 PM's from RPI all day). I hate to look like I'm favoring my roomate, I'm really not, because BK was there near the end and didn't change his vote when he's good enough to know that was a transparent wolf reveal by EF.

Okay, I would say this isn't a bad start. The only read I really disagree with (other than myself) is that I don't think we should so readily throw out Hannibal's vote as too obvious. I have seen that tactic--and even used it myself--to earn more trust than I deserved.

I'm not ready to go the UTR route, which is how I view RPI at the moment. That says nothing about his guilt or innocence, just that I think we have better targets.

BK is an interesting choice, and he has not responded to a PM from me yet, despite being my roommate. But he also said he was waylaid in a past game by a wolf roommate, and plus I am still holding out hope he will get in touch with me. So I'm not ready to lynch BK.

I think Gramm comes off as the most suspicious to me, with the non-vote change at the end, but how can I not identify with him not being sure about the deadline, since I myself had the same issue?

All of this leads me to consider voting for HL. Here's my thoughts here. After Day One, HL would be the ideal seer target, with only the seer's roommate being a likely other choice. We have two nights passed now--therefore, I think the seer has scanned HL, and I suspect that seer would come out after EF's wolfishness was revealed, since finding another wolf right away would make it almost impossible to win.

On that basis, the lack of a seer reveal leads me to believe HL gets a pass for now. But I think as the game goes on, that's a question we're going to have to answer (HL's allegiance).

I fall back on Grammaticus, then, since I have to put in a vote now. But if I were able to be around (which I won't be, two job day tomorrow), I would certainly be willing to consider other theories. Gramm is far from a sure thing, but he's just the way I am leaning right now.

VOTE GRAMMATICUS

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

All of this leads me to consider voting for HL. Here's my thoughts here. After Day One, HL would be the ideal seer target, with only the seer's roommate being a likely other choice. We have two nights passed now--therefore, I think the seer has scanned HL, and I suspect that seer would come out after EF's wolfishness was revealed, since finding another wolf right away would make it almost impossible to win.

Re-reading this, I thought I would clarify it. This is based on the hypothetical that HL is a wolf. Meaning if he is a wolf, and I do think he was scanned, then the seer would have come out after EF was lynched. Two days, two wolf lynches, maybe even the end of the game if there are only two wolves (unlikely, but then we also have the janitor...), I would do that if I were the seer. Since the seer has not revealed, I lean to giving HL a break for a day and look elsewhere.

But I do think, as I state above, that there will come a time when we need to address this. HL's move was not a good one at a critical time. It's too easy to build up an impression of innocence and have that hold up following up that line of questioning later on.

[Barkeep49]

FTR I've responded to CR's message. I hadn't because of the reasons I stated in the thread, namely my bad experience with that devil Alan T in the Marvel game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

FTR I've responded to CR's message. I hadn't because of the reasons I stated in the thread, namely my bad experience with that devil Alan T in the Marvel game.

I know BK is trying to clarify something here, so I will add a further clarification, so it doesn't reflect bad on me. He responded after I posted the above posts last night, so I was not being untruthful in stating he had not responded at that time. He has since.

Regardless, BK's reasoning to me, IMO, is entirely consistent with what he stated in his thread, and I have no issue with it, nor do I think anyone else should. As I told him in my PM, I think it's a useful tool for us to use to try to weed out wolves and to run by theories, but there is certainly the chance we're not who we say we are. I don't trust him more than anyone else in the game, nor do would I guess he does me, so the value of roommate PMing is certainly questionable at best.

[DaddyTorgo]

BK my good man - how about your lack of movement on the D1 vote? Do you have some type of commentary on that?

[DaddyTorgo]

i just ask because BK is fairly high-up on my list of people I wanted to dig into a little deeper today

[DaddyTorgo]

Hi Telle!!! (shameless WW post-whoring)

[Hannibal Lecter]

But posts dont count my good man!

[Danny]

Did we get confirmation that the deadline is now 10 eastern? I'd rather not have to rush home from work to get in my vote as I need to go to costco

[DaddyTorgo]

no HL - they do now. ssssh, don't tell the HNIC

[DaddyTorgo]

Danny - that is what's listed on the thread, and it jives with what lathum said the other day about not having adjusted to living on the west coast yet.

If Mr. Lathum can confirm the 10pm EST deadline by adding "EST" to the thread title though, that'd be swell.

[Danny]

Just in case

Vote Telle

I have to go and as long as the deadline is 10pm I will have plenty of time to reconsider later, but just in case.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

BK my good man - how about your lack of movement on the D1 vote? Do you have some type of commentary on that?

Ditto this. (obv.)

[Grammaticus]

CR,

I’m not sure how to read you right now. As for you trying to justify hanging a vote on me because I’m suspicious is weak. I missed the deadline because screwed up the cutoff. You are implying I did it on purpose or it looks wolfish. Why on earth would a wolf miss the vote? If I had been a wolf and entered the thread during an EF vs someone else, I would have hit EF with the lynch vote, giving me the “I killed a wolf” card. Of everyone in the game at this point, I gotta be one of the top 2 or 3 that looks like a student. You would be better off just saying you got nothing but are hanging the vote for not voting and leave it at that.

I will hang my vote on RPI, for just going UTR. I’ve got nothing else material to go on. But I will consider changing it if other infor comes to light.

VOTE RPI

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

BK my good man - how about your lack of movement on the D1 vote? Do you have some type of commentary on that?

I do have commentary. Pending a believable reveal I don't move my vote D1. I agree that EF's reveal was fishy, but not so fishy as to be overwhelmingly convincing against him. We have certainly hit upon the actual seer D1 who has legitimately revealed. I had already restated earlier in the day that I don't like to move D1 votes. I saw no reason to move my D1 vote in this case, so I didn't.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay. thanks for that Mr. BK sir. I will take that under advisement as i deliberate.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hi Telle!!! (shameless WW post-whoring)

Hi. Btw I might be a bit quiet today as I'm really not feeling very well.

[DaddyTorgo]

awww!!! sorry to hear that.

[hoopsguy]

Add me to the list that are feeling under the weather today. But I'll be in and out of here, as work permits.

Early votes are looking vaguely D1-ish, with four people each with one vote if I'm scoring correctly.

Barkeep - Heinz (427)
Gramm - Chief (462)
Telle - Danny (472)
RPI - Gramm (474)

[jeff061]

I really don't have time to analyze things as much as I like. The arguments for Barkeep are not convincing to me.

CR is a little over the top as well.

I'm still leaning towards Telle, from voting records in day 1 and a relatively active yet cautious play style. But that may just be how she plays or may be for reasons other than wolfdom(wish I knew you people better ).

Despite it being day 3 we don't have much to go on beyond day 1 votes, a lag I feel that is showing up in some thin analysis. I wish we had lynched EF first day, would have made for an interesting second and much more to go on now.

So, if only to get some further conversation:

Telle

I very well may change it.

Also please note I had singled her out before Danny voted . Just to sidestep the piling on/losing a vote accusation..

[Lathum]

10 PM EST Deadline

[Hannibal Lecter]

Refresh me.... what did Telle do?

[Abe Sargent]

YEah, color me curious as well

[Telle]

So what reason do people have for voting for me? My Day 1 vote, which everyone seems to find suspicious, was really pretty straight forward. I wanted to vote for one of the two who already had two votes on them so as to continue to help narrow the field. This meant Grammaticus or The Jackal. I had nothing on Gram, so went with The Jackal since I found it odd that he would put a fourth vote on someone on Day 1 without much reason when the next closest person had only two votes. I admit it wasn't a strong reason for my vote, but we're all pretty much grasping at straws on Day 1.

[DaddyTorgo]

*nods* i'm in the middle of working but that doesn't sound unreasonable off the top of my head telle. fwiw that may change if i get a chance to think about it more than "in passing"

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

CR,

I’m not sure how to read you right now. As for you trying to justify hanging a vote on me because I’m suspicious is weak. I missed the deadline because screwed up the cutoff. You are implying I did it on purpose or it looks wolfish. Why on earth would a wolf miss the vote? If I had been a wolf and entered the thread during an EF vs someone else, I would have hit EF with the lynch vote, giving me the “I killed a wolf” card. Of everyone in the game at this point, I gotta be one of the top 2 or 3 that looks like a student. You would be better off just saying you got nothing but are hanging the vote for not voting and leave it at that.

I will hang my vote on RPI, for just going UTR. I’ve got nothing else material to go on. But I will consider changing it if other infor comes to light.

VOTE RPI

So 8 sentences expounging against CR for voting for you, but only really 1 about why you'd vote.

Why not just vote for CR if his reasoning strikes you as off?

[hoopsguy]

So here are what I think represent data points as we stand today:
1.) Day 1 vote (the huge data point)
2.) Two days worth of seer scans, data which is unknown to all but one of us but may have been alluded to in the thread

So, if you were the seer who would you have scanned at the end of D1? I suppose that would depend, to a large extent, on if you were in the thread at the end of the day. But, assuming complete information, who would you have scanned? If you did not scan him D1 (weren't around, had a higher personal priority, whatever) then would that have been the "for sure" choice at the end of D2?

I think that is part of my hesitation on throwing a vote at Hannibal right now. Well, that and the fact that right now he would represent a 5th candidate when there are already four people attracting votes. But I've more or less talked myself into the idea that he has already been scanned.

So that moves us into 2nd-tier candidates. Heinz put together a pretty good list on that earlier, and that seems to have acted as a starting point for a lot of people with their early votes.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not inclined to vote for anyone who voted for EF. Each vote was a "good" vote in terms of being at a pretty crucial time in the vote or early enough that it could've easily been switched to Jackal if they were a wolf.

That gives me a pool of

BK
Telle
Hannibal
RPI
CR
Gramm

This was the Heinz post that I referenced above. I'm pretty sure my vote will come from this list.

BK - zero feel at this point
Telle - will go back to look it up, but timing of vote was troublesome as much as voting for Jackal
Hannibal - vote that looks the worst from D1. Would he do this as a wolf (maybe, not discounting it at all). What are chances he has been scanned by now (50/50?)
RPI - the UTR option on this list so far
CR - I tend to give him some leash based on schedules, but am always nervous about doing so
Gramm - I'm least likely to vote for him out of any of this group, for reasons I have already listed in thread (D1 no-vote suboptimal move)

[hoopsguy]

BK, since you are around in the thread ... what kind of conversations have you had with Chief up to this point? Any reason to feel good/bad about him, either in game or based on PM conversations?

I think (will double-check) you are the only roommate pairing, at the moment, that both have me with some level of unease.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BK, since you are around in the thread ... what kind of conversations have you had with Chief up to this point? Any reason to feel good/bad about him, either in game or based on PM conversations?

I think (will double-check) you are the only roommate pairing, at the moment, that both have me with some level of unease.

Hannibal and I share a room as well.

[jeff061]

She didn't do much. I'm really not swaying a ton towards anyone, we more or less has a single day 1 to go off of, since 1 and 2 accomplished the same.

I guess I really want to force a defense post from someone . Get more info out there. I'll probably switch off.

CR is on the other end of the spectrum, being very overt on seer logic that doesn't quite float with me. I may just not trust the quiet ones, so I put them on the spot .

[hoopsguy]

Yep, correct. Had just gone to Page 1 to look that up and seen the same.

[Hannibal Lecter]

jsut dont tell RendeR

[jeff061]

So, if you were the seer who would you have scanned at the end of D1? I suppose that would depend, to a large extent, on if you were in the thread at the end of the day. But, assuming complete information, who would you have scanned? If you did not scan him D1 (weren't around, had a higher personal priority, whatever) then would that have been the "for sure" choice at the end of D2?

Honestly, my roommate to see if I could share my info. Then I could share my information so it wouldn't die with me.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeff061

She didn't do much. I'm really not swaying a ton towards anyone, we more or less has a single day 1 to go off of, since 1 and 2 accomplished the same.

I guess I really want to force a defense post from someone . Get more info out there. I'll probably switch off.

CR is on the other end of the spectrum, being very overt on seer logic that doesn't quite float with me. I may just not trust the quiet ones, so I put them on the spot .

I actually do buy into CR's logic on the seer, FWIW. I think I've said as much in my last couple of posts. Doesn't mean I trust CR all that much, as wolves spend probably 50+ % of their time trying to figure out who is the seer. But I understand his train of thought pretty well.

[jeff061]

I guess if you buy that announcing the second wolf is a silver bullet(so to speak) in their chances to win. My disagreement may be my lack of experience.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Honestly, my roommate to see if I could share my info. Then I could share my information so it wouldn't die with me.

Cool, so you get your roommate scanned on N1, then where would you go from there? I'm guessing it would be highly driven by the D1 vote. Perhaps it is even a conditional order ("if EF = wolf, then scan Player X otherwise Player Y").

[jeff061]

err, unexperience=disagreement.

Work has my mind all over the place. Which is why I'm probably coming across horribly disjointed.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cool, so you get your roommate scanned on N1, then where would you go from there? I'm guessing it would be highly driven by the D1 vote. Perhaps it is even a conditional order ("if EF = wolf, then scan Player X otherwise Player Y").

Without putting a ton of thought into it, I'd probably scan some of the vocal ones(you for instance) to see if what they are bringing to the table can be trusted and to watch for them getting a following.

At this point you can make a case for nearly anyone based on d1 voting this early in the game. People have been playing this game awhile, they know how to make themselves inconspicuous for at least early came play. And as I said, in my opinion when it comes to information gained we are basically day 2 right now.

[jeheinz72]

Bah, the site ate my post. Boils down to, my scan choices if I were Seer would be in the group of: EF, Jackal,HL, Roomate(s)

I'm also wary of basing my vote on presumed optimal seer play.