10-28-2020, 12:08 PM | #5201 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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I'm thinking NC ends up stronger for Biden than anticipated. Some of the right may be shy about their backing of Trump here, but NOT SO for Forest for governor. However, all three polls in the last 10 days have increased Cooper's lead into the doubt digits. It's a quite passionate race because of COVID-19. NC has taken significantly stronger measures than nearly all nearby states, which has the right up in arms and the left determined to keep him in office over Forest, who has been vocal about wanting to open everything up full-blast. I think Biden gets a boost from COVID and Cooper here, especially with cases rising again.
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10-28-2020, 12:10 PM | #5202 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
The interactive map, when blank, is showing 63% Biden. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 10-28-2020 at 12:11 PM. |
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10-28-2020, 12:11 PM | #5203 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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dola: and it might not grow blue.
I am actually pretty confident this year b/c a lot of the swing voters are educated suburban types. And those are breaking for Biden. Hell, think of Ben voting against Trump. But if you had a Jeb vs. Warren or Bernie, I think it would be easily GOP. |
10-28-2020, 12:12 PM | #5204 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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We're talking about different projections. I should have clarified - I was looking at projected vote total, you're talking likelihood to win (which is the question that was asked, so boo on me there).
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10-28-2020, 12:13 PM | #5205 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Ah. Makes sense.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
10-28-2020, 12:13 PM | #5206 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Sure, while maybe not as fast, it has been growing by picking up migrants from the north, which would slowly cause it to turn. And most people are moving into the cities there, Charlotte and the Triangle.
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10-28-2020, 12:15 PM | #5207 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Perhaps. But they have a Democratic governor who is getting re-elected, and likely about to turn a Senate seat blue. And not one of those Doug Jones blue seats either.
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10-28-2020, 12:18 PM | #5208 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: May 2003
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This is my election night prediction. I think Trump takes FL, PA, OH, and N.C., and Biden still wins. Narrowly.
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10-28-2020, 12:27 PM | #5209 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
If that's how it ends up, there will be more RNC attorneys in the Upper Midwest than residents in November. |
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10-28-2020, 12:30 PM | #5210 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Just need one of those EVs in Maine or Nebraska to flip then so we can get to 269-all and have ourselves a real crisis. But, unfortunately for that theory, I don't see it being anywhere near that close.
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10-28-2020, 12:36 PM | #5211 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: The scorched Desert
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I just can't see PA going for Trump again, it is obviously the key state, but I think Trump's recent surge will flatten out by election day.
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10-28-2020, 12:41 PM | #5212 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Oh, and irritating personal story regarding our governor's race from this weekend...
Wife To Her Mother On The Phone: "Man, remote learning with {2nd grader} has been tough. We're thinking about putting her in private school earlier than anticipated because we're not sure we can handle much more of this. We doubt public schools are going to return to in-person learning any time soon here." MIL: "OMG YES COOPER HAS GOT TO GO!!!! HE IS SOOOOOO OPPRESSIVE!!! KIDS NEED TO GO TO SCHOOL!!!!111" SWMBO: "Uh, mom. Cooper said schools could open back in the summer. Public schools are doing in-person in many parts of the state. This is a Guilford County School System decision." Proud of my wife for setting her straight, but good gracious.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
10-28-2020, 12:55 PM | #5213 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Some Hamilton County early voting stats through 10/27:
Total votes cast: 200,967 In-person votes cast: 56,961 Absentee ballots returned: 144,006 Absentee ballots requested but not yet returned: 36,258 Party affiliation breakdown of in-person: Dem: 19,927 Rep: 6,893 Other/Unaffiliated: 30,141 Party affiliation breakdown of absentee: Dem: 51,658 Rep: 23,527 Other/Unaffiliated: 68,821 Party affiliation breakdown of unreturned absentee: Dem: 5,114 Rep: 3,201 Other/Unaffiliated: 27,943 Daily in-person totals continue to climb. 4,619 people vote yesterday. The first day (10/6) saw 3,058 voters. Of the 18 days of in-person voting so far, 10/6 is now only the 11th highest total. This past Sunday was the first day since 10/15 that vote totals didn't exceed those of 10/6. and there are 600199 registered voters in the county Last edited by CrimsonFox : 10-28-2020 at 12:58 PM. |
10-28-2020, 01:02 PM | #5214 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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I wonder what the odds are that Trump doesn't win a single state with more than 11 EC's. If Biden wins TX, OH, PA, and NC, along with the others where he's expected to win, that's what we're looking at.
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10-28-2020, 01:08 PM | #5215 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Last edited by CrimsonFox : 10-28-2020 at 01:10 PM. |
10-28-2020, 01:34 PM | #5216 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
Wife's parents have drank the Kool-Aid and call him "Comrade Cooper" (that may be even more of a stretch than calling Biden a Communist). And all their friends in Fayetteville can't stand him either. They are going to be shocked when Cooper wins by 10.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 10-28-2020 at 01:34 PM. |
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10-28-2020, 01:37 PM | #5217 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
I agree with all this. I lived in NC for 5-years and we spent last week there (since kids can be in school from anywhere anyway). Anecdotal, but I was surprised by the number of Biden signs that I saw in the eastern part of the state where it is more rural and there are a lot of settled and retired military families. There were definitely more Trump signs (and more fanatical Trump houses with giant flags and/or multiple signs), but I'd say it was something like 3-2 or 2-1. I would have expected the parts we went through to be more like rural WV and PA around here, where it is typically more like 10-1 or 15-1. I was also amazed at the number of Cunningham/Tillis commercials - I have never seen anything like it. My 11-year old knows more about them than our own senators at this point. I have to think nearly 100% of voters know who they both are. Between the signs, tone of the commercials, and fact that there is less chance of shenanigans (with the election being administered by a Dem executive branch), I think NC is more likely to go to Biden than FL. |
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10-28-2020, 01:48 PM | #5218 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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I'm getting the feeling that many swing states are going to be bigger Biden than the polls currently show. I think there's a chance that some of the changes pollsters made in reaction to 2016 may have been overcorrecting. There's no reason Biden would be a worse EC candidate than Clinton (he appeals far more to swing state voters than she did), so I'm not buying the huge difference in national polls and the tipping point state (PA) polls.
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10-28-2020, 02:28 PM | #5219 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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You guys know there's a prediction thread, right? It's got like words and everything: 2020 Election Prediction Contest - Front Office Football Central SI
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10-28-2020, 02:31 PM | #5220 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I've wondered this as well SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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10-28-2020, 03:07 PM | #5221 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
stop oppressing me with your fascist threads |
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10-28-2020, 03:22 PM | #5222 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
i just looked myself on the registered voter list. And I call bullshit. It has me for a Dem this year but in previous elections it has me as NOn...which is total BS. I've only ever voted Dem. |
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10-28-2020, 03:23 PM | #5223 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Here's Amy Poehler rallying for NC
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=847613432673187 Happy Days Gang was for Wisconsin I love all the reunion fundraisers |
10-28-2020, 03:31 PM | #5224 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: PDX
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I've been waiting on/dreading this election that's seemingly been in the far future for so long and now that it's only a week away my brain doesn't know how to process it so good.
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Last edited by thesloppy : Today at 05:35 PM. |
10-28-2020, 03:33 PM | #5225 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
Do you have to register by party in NC? They don't announce based on voting records (that's private), but based on voter registration.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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10-28-2020, 03:36 PM | #5226 | |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Quote:
They have $100 more in the coffers now. Thanks, Amy! Say hi to L'il Sebastian for me! Last edited by Kodos : 10-28-2020 at 03:37 PM. |
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10-28-2020, 03:48 PM | #5227 |
Head Coach
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10-28-2020, 03:48 PM | #5228 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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GO KODOS! BEAT KANG!
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10-28-2020, 04:03 PM | #5229 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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If he just would have taken the virus seriously, he might be winning.
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10-28-2020, 04:06 PM | #5230 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
This is interesting to me because I'm reading from some sources that are bullish on Trump winning NC fairly easily due to the fact that there and in a couple of other close states Republicans are strongly favored in new voter registrations right now. I have no idea who is right and have spent probably two days of my entire life in North Carolina, just passing through for all of it, but I always find fascinating the number of people who take the same facts and draw opposite conclusions. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 10-28-2020 at 04:06 PM. |
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10-28-2020, 04:17 PM | #5231 |
Resident Alien
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10-28-2020, 04:19 PM | #5232 | |
Head Coach
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Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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Quote:
I can confirm, we do not have special eating masks in CA.
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10-28-2020, 04:46 PM | #5233 |
Head Coach
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10-28-2020, 05:04 PM | #5234 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
*—Well, other than sending Cynthia home back in the day.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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10-28-2020, 05:11 PM | #5235 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: San Diego via Sausalito via San Jose via San Diego
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Can confirm as well. They are specially configured to work with the paper straws we have and you have to hug a tree every time you take it off.
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10-28-2020, 06:48 PM | #5236 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Good news for Democrats in North Carolina:
https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/st...803713538?s=20 Quote:
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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10-28-2020, 06:51 PM | #5237 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Same with Pennsylvania
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/polit...ett/index.html Quote:
SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 10-28-2020 at 06:52 PM. |
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10-28-2020, 06:53 PM | #5238 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Why would they rule Wisconsin has to be same day it other states don’t. That seems odd to me. I’m assuming it’s something in the specific wording from the states side
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10-28-2020, 07:19 PM | #5239 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Seems like Roberts and Kavanaugh understand the politics. At least in the Pa case they left the door open to invalidate the ballots later if the margin of victory is small. It sure looks to me like they are willing to interfere in the election, but they won't until they know if it will make a difference.
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10-28-2020, 07:23 PM | #5240 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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10-28-2020, 07:30 PM | #5241 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
Yeah. For the reasons Ben explained, it makes sense to be registered with neither party here. I started as unaffiliated. But I did change my registration to Democrat at some point On the very small chance that my career path may have taken me in a direction where I would have worked in some sort of political capacity. It did not. But I am not motivated enough to change back to unaffiliated because, as noted, what’s the point? |
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10-28-2020, 07:46 PM | #5242 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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What are the odds!?!
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-28-2020, 07:47 PM | #5243 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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I think it was Canadian girlfriend.
Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk |
10-28-2020, 07:57 PM | #5244 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
See, this is where I get confused. Everybody was mad that the court nearly overruled a state in Pennsylvania. I agreed that it was good they didn't. Now they're mad that the court won't overrule Wisconsin. So which is it? Should the court overrule states decisions about their own elections, or shouldn't it? Or is it just that they should overrule the ones we want them to overrule? |
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10-28-2020, 09:48 PM | #5245 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
It's about counting the votes that are postmarked by Election Day - not about which state does what. For example imagine if a state said the final count had to be certified 1 hour after the polls close, the SCOTUS would strike it down on Equal Protection and Voting Right Act grounds. Same concept.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 10-28-2020 at 10:03 PM. |
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10-28-2020, 10:05 PM | #5246 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Dear God this will drive Trump crazy.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-28-2020, 10:20 PM | #5247 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: The scorched Desert
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10-28-2020, 10:24 PM | #5248 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
If that was the case then nobody would be talking about whether the court should overrule a state, and yet that was what everyone was talking about with Pennsylvania. The argument instead would have been 'they should be telling all states they must do this' You may know more about this than I do; where does the 'postmarked by Election Day' standard come from? I.e., what federal law does not doing it that way violate? Last edited by Brian Swartz : 10-28-2020 at 10:25 PM. |
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10-28-2020, 10:47 PM | #5249 | ||
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
How exactly do you think these cases come to SCOTUS? Quote:
Like the example in my previous post. If a state demanded voting stopped an hour after polls closed it would be found to violate the Equal Protection Clause (and likely Voting Rights Act considering which precincts normally come in late). People who postmark their ballots on election day are voting on election day. Though I think they may be able to get around it if they said X day is the last day they'll take as a postmark absentee ballots (provided it's not like 3 weeks before Election Day) but they'll count all the ballots. Complicating it of course is that in the Wisconsin primary SCOTUS allowed for all ballots postmarked by Primary Day to be counted even if recieved after Primary Election Day.
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10-28-2020, 10:49 PM | #5250 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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Maybe Jack Nicklaus found the missing Biden documents that never made it to Tucker Carlson.
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