COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I know I'm naive and foolish in believing that we shouldn't as a society being racking up deficits that will have to be paid by our children that have no vote in the matter.

But I'm still as mad as hell about and I won't take it anymore (albeit the only outlet I have at the moment is minor internet forums)

So, again, why treat anyone that can't pay for it?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

So, again, why treat anyone that can't pay for it?

For even the most self-centered who don't care about anyone else, I have to think they see that there are some ramifications when things like, say, pandemics, hit the full population.

Then again, we have a lot of people that seem to say "if you don't like it, stay home" like the virus cares who the "brave" are.

SI

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

So, again, why treat anyone that can't pay for it?

Well who will be there to treat it? If the doctor will do it for free then good.

[JPhillips]

I don't just mean for COVID. If the objection is money, why treat anyone, of any age, for any illness or injury, if they can't pay? What are the guidelines for who will be saved and who will be left to suffer?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't just mean for COVID. If the objection is money, why treat anyone, of any age, for any illness or injury, if they can't pay? What are the guidelines for who will be saved and who will be left to suffer?

I think these questions are beyond the scope of this thread

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Is 120K (of mostly older people) really that big a blip in a country of over 300,000,000?

As I've generally maintained throughout this pandemic, I'm more worried about the economy than the virus.

Sure I get the mostly older people bit, but a lot of not all that old people are dying too or will be dealing with consequences of this for the remainder of their lives. Sure that's not a high percentage of those who get sick, but we should do what we can to shut this thing down and invest in making the environment that the economy operates inas safe as possible.

I'm with a lot of other folks here, I'm not spending money like I used to because it still seems to me that isolating amongst my family is the right course of action.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well who will be there to treat it? If the doctor will do it for free then good.

Since grandma had a good run and should be left to die if she has covid, why even have hospitals or doctors or medicine? You either live or die based off luck and nature. That should cut costs down.

Why wait until old age, people should just kill themselves to ward off excess debt later.

Is that your argument? I'm just trying to understand what your saying?

[Kodos]

I bet NobodyHere is a big fan of The Expendables.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Is 120K (of mostly older people) really that big a blip in a country of over 300,000,000?

As I've generally maintained throughout this pandemic, I'm more worried about the economy than the virus.

If it was 120K of teens and young adult would that change your calculus? Or women or whites/blacks/hispanics/asians etc.

I'm trying to understand if its truly older people or just raw nos?

Also, it's not just deaths, its 2.3M+ people infected and having to be treated, many of them would have died without the treatments. And many more would have been infected without the extraordinary measures taken.

[PilotMan]

Or if Fargo ND was completely wiped from the map?


...maybe that wasn't the best example for some people.

[cuervo72]

Beginning to think that the problem a lot of people had with 9/11 wasn't the loss of life, but the fact that we lost a few planes, a few buildings, and dammit, those cost money!

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Or if Fargo ND was completely wiped from the map?

...maybe that wasn't the best example for some people.

Take that, NDSU! You've ruled Div II/FCS for far too long and had it coming!

SI

[PilotMan]

I really think that the struggles were looking at in the US with Covid19 is the way that Capitalism responds to pandemics. This is it. This is how Capitalism works. It's survival of the fittest, and if it doesn't mean a profit now, it's not useful. One man's failing is another man's opportunity. This is Capitalism.

[Kodos]

It’s more dead people than a football stadium. But I guess that’s no big deal.

NobodyHere has chosen a strange hill for others to die on.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Kodos

It’s more dead people than a football stadium. But I guess that’s no big deal.

NobodyHere has chosen a strange hill for others to die on.

I'm not sure how fiscal responsibility is a strange hill.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Beginning to think that the problem a lot of people had with 9/11 wasn't the loss of life, but the fact that we lost a few planes, a few buildings, and dammit, those cost money!

No, I think it was the how. Dying in a plane or in a falling tower is scary and unimaginable. Dying of a disease... that happens every day to people we all know. It's easy for some people to just pass it off as the price for living. Getting killed by a terrorist, or just a plain old airplane crash, feels so much more unnatural that we all instantly feel the pain of people who lost years off their lives. Here, it's just "speeding up the process" of dying by yet another disease.

[cuervo72]

Well, in that case the pharmaceutical industry better watch out.

(Dentistry too. I mean, we'll all lose our teeth someday, right?)

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

We probably don't until the virus overwhelms hospitals again.

This. We'll go along like we are at least for a few weeks. There will come a point, and it will probably be later than we reacted for the first wave, where it will become obvious that we screwed up and need to take more aggressive mitigation actions again.

That's where the rubber will meet the road IMO, because opposition to closing down again is likely to be much stronger. If I had to guess, I think we eventually do it anyway ... but too late. As before, there'll also be a lot of state-to-state variance, and even more denial esp. with dealing with things like school/football/etc. coming around the bend.

I'm not looking forward to it.

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

As I've generally maintained throughout this pandemic, I'm more worried about the economy than the virus.

I'm with KSyrup on this. The margins for the economy are so tight - a function of our modern system - that you simply can't have a strong economy without the virus being handled. The two are way too interrelated to have an approach be successful that concerns itself with just one or the other.

[Edward64]

For GA, a couple concerning graphics.

COVID-19 top zip codes in Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb and DeKalb | 11alive.com

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

This. We'll go along like we are at least for a few weeks. There will come a point, and it will probably be later than we reacted for the first wave, where it will become obvious that we screwed up and need to take more aggressive mitigation actions again.

That's where the rubber will meet the road IMO, because opposition to closing down again is likely to be much stronger. If I had to guess, I think we eventually do it anyway ... but too late. As before, there'll also be a lot of state-to-state variance, and even more denial esp. with dealing with things like school/football/etc. coming around the bend.

I'm not looking forward to it.

TBH as an outsider looking in, and from a country that is hardly a paragon of how to react to Covid-19, I think the US is in for an horrific time in autumn.

I take no pleasure in it, but Jesus: Germany’s R rate has just hit 2.8 despite opening up when things were largely ‘under control’, and a good proportion of the US are reopening with increasing rates?

[Mota]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Is 120K (of mostly older people) really that big a blip in a country of over 300,000,000?

As I've generally maintained throughout this pandemic, I'm more worried about the economy than the virus.

So it's 120,000 and it's over now? Seems like things are really just getting started. Look at the numbers, they're growing in many states.

What is the acceptable number of deaths to you?

[whomario]

Originally Posted by AlexB

TBH as an outsider looking in, and from a country that is hardly a paragon of how to react to Covid-19, I think the US is in for an horrific time in autumn.

I take no pleasure in it, but Jesus: Germany’s R rate has just hit 2.8 despite opening up when things were largely ‘under control’, and a good proportion of the US are reopening with increasing rates?

To be fair, R is utterly useless as a single number for 1 day. Basically what happened is Germany had 350-400 cases a day at roughly R = 0.8-1 and then had over 1k cases at a meatpacking plant and surroundings (mostly spouses etc so far) detected in mass testing over a couple days. Technically that means R is 2,8, but really it still is just about 1 everywhere else and astronomical in that cluster.
A decent % of cases have been clusters before that as well (20 here, 100 there, 50 elsewhere) from situations where precautions were not followed (party at a restaurant, big family gatherings, church services without SD measures, a school etc) where the spread has been detected with good Monitoring (in pretty much all clusters the health agency made the connection after the first known case showing up saying where he was the last few days. Then it was contained with agressive mass testing, contact tracing and quarantining.

A good boogeyman is useful, but Germany isn't it more like an example of how quick it could change if you started missing these things (only noticing when people get hospitalised), which is simply way more likely the higher levels are in general. Plus, containment takes huge ressources, that current outbreak is managed with help from a dozen local health departments and social services from all over the state, multiple Organisations like the Red Cross as well as the army.
There is a slight increase in 'community spread' as well, more clusters indicate that as well, but we definitely don't really see a 3-fold increase of transmissions for each cycle (which originally is what R is supposed to indicate).

Tracking/tracing/quarantining as a strategy is much more difficult in the US due to a lack of supporting laws, lack of available data, 'freedom' to not give info etc. I mean, aparently quarantine is voluntary in the US ? That's a problem (over here both employees and employers are bound by law to adhere to it, employee gets paid still and employer gets reimbursed, same as with an actual illness).
Plus, it's really not an easy job that can be expected to be done by anybody immediately, so there are significant limits as to the scale of cases you can effectively manage (like said, for germany the estimate for a single local health department is 35-50 per 100k per week) . You can throw money at the problem and hire loads of people, but there is more to it. Ideally you want medically trained people and/or those with experience with social services etc. You are asking people for sensitive information, you often have scared, worried or angry people.

New York City hired 3,000 workers for contact tracing. It's not going well. | Boston.com

[albionmoonlight]

I'm looking at those AZ numbers. Holy shit.

Y'all stay safe, Okay?

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'm looking at those AZ numbers. Holy shit.

Y'all stay safe, Okay?

BishopMVP says we're fine.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Mota

So it's 120,000 and it's over now? Seems like things are really just getting started. Look at the numbers, they're growing in many states.

What is the acceptable number of deaths to you?

I'm assuming it's grandma and anyone else he doesn't know.

[JAG]

It’s only an old person disease though, so...oh.

Hospitals Seeing Influx of Younger COVID-19 Patients – NBC 6 South Florida

[Qwikshot]

https://twitter.com/Devilstower/stat...22744084643840



There may be a reckoning coming (and yes I know it's from a writer from Daily Kos, so we may need to get more data).

[Lathum]

Florida gonna Florida

Florida changes ICU reporting

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

BishopMVP says we're fine.

No, I say we've made our choice subliminally to accept a higher number of deaths than anyone wants to admit, even to themselves.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

https://twitter.com/Devilstower/stat...22744084643840



There may be a reckoning coming (and yes I know it's from a writer from Daily Kos, so we may need to get more data).

So it's starting to balance out or is the articles implication that really only Clinton supporters should have gotten this virus?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Florida gonna Florida

Florida changes ICU reporting

So, there are certain people in beds in intensive care units who don't need intensive care, or they can double/triple up on patients per bed if the care they need doesn't rise to the level of "intensive"?

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

https://twitter.com/Devilstower/stat...22744084643840



There may be a reckoning coming (and yes I know it's from a writer from Daily Kos, so we may need to get more data).

In fairness, doesn't this make sense? Highly urban areas have more transients than rural areas. They will see the first spike. They are locking down more, but the rural areas are travelling more now, and they bring the virus back to their homes. It then spreads there at a high rate until they adjust behavior to address transmission.

[CU Tiger]

I wonder what the hospitalization rate is in regards to positive tests compared to earlier.

Just in my little extended work circle, Im starting to run into more people who are or know people who are positives. For example talked to a guy this morning where it has ran into their small office and 4 out of 9 employees are positive and isolated. The other 5 are negative as of Friday testing. The natural follow up, "How is everyone doing?"

'Well Larry has a sore throat and Jim said he feels a little tired - the other two dont feel anything'

That's just a today example. I dont know how that reconciles with the NY and other experiences.
I wonder if we are getting a rash of false positives.
Or if we are seeing a quick mutation towards less harmful strains.
Or if we are starting to see the virus become prove much more contagious but less deadly than initially feared.

[Ksyrup]

I don't know if it's less deadly, but it seems clear that it closely correlates to age. So if more people are getting tested, the age of those tested is going to now trend younger and the death rate is going to go down even if the number of new cases goes up. What we don't know yet, I think, is how much of a lag there is in deaths (will deaths trend up in the next 30 days as cases spike?), or if so many younger people get it over the next several months, how much of a spread is there going to be to older people (which should, presumably, kill more of them proportionally)?

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

In fairness, doesn't this make sense? Highly urban areas have more transients than rural areas. They will see the first spike. They are locking down more, but the rural areas are travelling more now, and they bring the virus back to their homes. It then spreads there at a high rate until they adjust behavior to address transmission.

I think it does make sense, the difference is how the areas handle it. I think that's my point off of this was it's now going inward to areas that may have been lukewarm on handling it prior.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I wonder what the hospitalization rate is in regards to positive tests compared to earlier.

Just in my little extended work circle, Im starting to run into more people who are or know people who are positives. For example talked to a guy this morning where it has ran into their small office and 4 out of 9 employees are positive and isolated. The other 5 are negative as of Friday testing. The natural follow up, "How is everyone doing?"

'Well Larry has a sore throat and Jim said he feels a little tired - the other two dont feel anything'

That's just a today example. I dont know how that reconciles with the NY and other experiences.
I wonder if we are getting a rash of false positives.
Or if we are seeing a quick mutation towards less harmful strains.
Or if we are starting to see the virus become prove much more contagious but less deadly than initially feared.

It is such a weird virus. You hear about a ton of people who get the equivalent of a bad cold.

But I have a friend who is now 100 days passed being "cured" and she still has days where she is so tired that she can't get out of bed. Mixed with days where she feels pretty much normal.

Having to deal with this in real time while we keep learning new things about it every day is maddening.

[whomario]

Couple possible reasons for less deaths:

1) Severity varies with age, which is very much an illness-thing and not a covid thing. Young people are the ones getting it now primarily, at least in Arizona.
(Still: Nationwide among 25-44 year olds CDC for mid april reports excess mortality 20+% above any other weeks between 2015 and 2020. Not average or weeks in April, but any other week including the damned bad flu season 17/18. The total is not super high because, duh, younger people rarely die. Still that's not trivial imo)

By now there ought to be regular testing at retirement homes to stop outbreaks early or just locked away effectively (which is an issue as well ...). Same for healthcare workers that have contact with older Folks (doctors and nurses of all kind), which helps keep it out that part of the population same as younger people keeping their distance from older relatives a bit more when meeting and going outside where possible.
They might also on average take more precautions than young folks with less contact with older people.

And PPE likely better available, which again limits transmission from nurses, doctors etc to patients or people living in facilities.

2) 'Summer Infections' might be different due to more happening outside or semi-outside (open doors and windows) and lesser amounts of virus in a transmission leading to less severe cases. Tough to study and quantify, but annecdotal and cluster studies suggest this at least.

3) treatment has improved a lot, even lacking a knockout drug. Early on even experienced doctors basically were flying blind, now you have a better idea of the Ws: What to do when and for whome (and what dosages or oxygen pressure, both normal and ventilation). Experience matters, also for procedures to keep the disease from spreading in hospitals.

4) people get to their doctor or a hospital earlier. For one testing is more accessible and hopefully faster, for another they won't be in denial and try to explain it away as easily with "might just be a cold of the flu" (because those are not really a factor in June).
Also it has now been better established that costs are covered (i think ?).
Early oxygen doses help a lot by all accounts.

There is of course also data blips, like Florida having 75% more excess deaths (30% above average ...) the most recent week counted (2 ago) than explained by their official number.

[RainMaker]

A lot of states like Florida are just going to cover up the numbers.

I did read that the average age of a positive test is down a lot though which is likely helping keep death tolls down a bit. Younger folks are probably the ones who feel safer to go out to bars and restaurants.

[thesloppy]

I had been looking for an updated version of this table of to-date pneumonia deaths from the CDC:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Not-so-hidden in this table you've got the number of deaths that have been reported as pneumonia but NOT related to covid....but to get that number you have to subtract the 'deaths involving pneumonia AND covid (~45K)' from 'deaths involving pneumonia with OR without covid (~115K)'

• Accordingly, as of 6/20 this year 70K deaths have been reported as pneumonia NOT related to covid
• We usually average ~50K pneumonia deaths in the US per year, total.
• As such, 25K penumonia deaths seems like a fair expectation for this time of year, since pneumonia, unlike the cold or flu, is not considered seasonal.

That's just one easily verified instance, direct from the CDC, of nearly 50K deaths that are both above normal levels and also explicitly not being accounted as covid related.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

A lot of states like Florida are just going to cover up the numbers.

Feels like the plotline for Jaws here. Worrying numbers, danger increasing but the government says "safe to swim".

[Senator]

Florida, as you know, means "Friendship".

[Arles]

One thing to think about in Arizona, is the summer is almost the opposite of other states. While people in places like Minnesota and North Carolina may be going outside more, people in AZ starting going inside more in June-August because of the heat. So, people that were walking outside a month ago may be going to an air conditioned gym now. I do a walk/jog every morning between 7:30 and 8:30. I used to run into a bunch of people - I didn't see a soul the past two days. Might be a factor.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Arles

One thing to think about in Arizona, is the summer is almost the opposite of other states. While people in places like Minnesota and North Carolina may be going outside more, people in AZ starting going inside more in June-August because of the heat. So, people that were walking outside a month ago may be going to an air conditioned gym now. I do a walk/jog every morning between 7:30 and 8:30. I used to run into a bunch of people - I didn't see a soul the past two days. Might be a factor.

Texas is similar - our sidewalks are getting a lot less densely populated than they were back in April. I imagine Florida is the same way.

That said, you could not pay me enough to go into a gym right now*, considering that enclosed areas with little ventilation and lots of heavy breathing seem like the perfect environment to spread this bug.

SI

*ok, you could probably come up with some fanciful number like $50M where I'd have to weigh the risk of death or permanent injury vs life changing wealth for not only me but future generations. However, I was meaning realistically - not something where you have to ask yourself meaning-of-life questions like "how much is my life really worth to me and those I love" or "how much money would significantly alter my lifestyle and life expectancy beyond the one time risk I'd be taking". As opposed to "hey, I could go outside and have a very minimal risk of contracting the virus and some uncomfortable weather elements" vs "hey, let's go chug some COVID air for an hour to get some A/C".

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Texas is similar - our sidewalks are getting a lot less densely populated than they were back in April. I imagine Florida is the same way.

That said, you could not pay me enough to go into a gym right now*, considering that enclosed areas with little ventilation and lots of heavy breathing seem like the perfect environment to spread this bug.

SI

*ok, you could probably come up with some fanciful number like $50M where I'd have to weigh the risk of death or permanent injury vs life changing wealth for not only me but future generations. However, I was meaning realistically - not something where you have to ask yourself meaning-of-life questions like "how much is my life really worth to me and those I love" or "how much money would significantly alter my lifestyle and life expectancy beyond the one time risk I'd be taking". As opposed to "hey, I could go outside and have a very minimal risk of contracting the virus and some uncomfortable weather elements" vs "hey, let's go chug some COVID air for an hour to get some A/C".

FWIW - SC allowed Gyms to re-open 3 weeks ago yesterday.
I've been every weekday morning since.

There is a notable disconnect between rural areas and more populous ares around here though.

This weekend I had to make a couple trips to the local wal mart, lowes and grocery store. (I guess had to is too strong -chose to would be better) I encountered 3 people that I recall total wearing masks.
Its just not soemthing that has been accepted/practiced.

Contrast that with earlier today I was on a job site in Charlotte and had to run into a Lowes to grab supplies and I was one of maybe 5 people in the store NOT wearing a mask.

Just found it interesting. The local feel isnt one of defiance or spite...its one of more ?obliviousness? maybe? Blissful ignorance? I dont know the proper label.

[JAG]

Study: Asymptomatic Cases Of COVID-19 Might Have Temporary Lung Damage : Goats and Soda : NPR

A new paper in Nature Medicine, published June 18, documents the clinical patterns of asymptomatic infections. It finds that many of the people studied developed signs of minor lung inflammation — akin to walking pneumonia — while exhibiting no other symptoms of the coronavirus.

The study shows that being asymptomatic doesn't always mean that no damage has occurred in someone's body; follow-up studies will help researchers assess for potential long-term impacts.

Hopefully no long term impacts of having this considering how many people have already been infected.

[Thomkal]

Looks like there may be no tennis this year when they couldn't even get through an exhibition event organized by Novak Djokivic without several of the players testing positive for the virus including Djokivic and his wife. Sounds like a few athletes in Serbia and Croatia have caught the virus:

https://apnews.com/a05bd74bc4c43bc13...&utm_medium=AP

[bhlloy]

To be fair when you are dancing shirtless in a nightclub and playing basketball before the the event, that greatly increases the risk of infection. I think Tennis with sensible precautions would have been be fine, and it's a shame that this shitshow has put that at risk.

[whomario]

Yeah, "even ... organised by Novak Djokovic" sound wrong, considering he quite clearly seems to have used this as a "fuck this i am declaring this over". To be fair in that part of the world it never really took hold so far (again, this needs to be transported by people), but still a really bad example set and reeks of privileged entitlement to fun,fun,fun.

Bound to be a few fans as well considering the countless photo ops of the players in crowds of them and may be coincidence (don't know) but croatia went from like 1 case every couple days to 100 in 5.

Also, Mexico City basically is NYC bad since early May looking at excess mortality ... (4000 a week instead of 1,4, only 650/700 officially covid). Since they account for 'only' 20-25 % of official deaths, country as a whole might really be closer to 2k than 500-600 a day ...

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Looks like there may be no tennis this year when they couldn't even get through an exhibition event organized by Novak Djokivic without several of the players testing positive for the virus including Djokivic and his wife. Sounds like a few athletes in Serbia and Croatia have caught the virus:

https://apnews.com/a05bd74bc4c43bc13...&utm_medium=AP

I don't think this will threaten tennis, it's an individual sport that can be safely played with proper protocol. It does hopefully show Djokovic, a notorious anti-vaxxer that this isn't some made up BS.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

That said, you could not pay me enough to go into a gym right now*, considering that enclosed areas with little ventilation and lots of heavy breathing seem like the perfect environment to spread this bug.

I also have been avoiding the gym because of virus reasons and not because I'm lazy or anything.