10-29-2020, 11:04 AM | #5301 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
It would make more sense if it's a block of states that are close and similar politically, which is what swung the election for Trump in 2016. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania having polling errors makes sense. Arizona, Iowa, NC, Pennsylvania, and Florida all having the same polling error favoring the same candidate makes little sense. It's definitely within the realm of possibility, but we're talking about things that are in play to give Trump the 11% chance he's sitting at now that likely sits at 7-8% by election day. |
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10-29-2020, 11:09 AM | #5302 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Dec 2002
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This is a related tweet. It shows the difference between current polling and includes a column showing the results adjusted by 2016 errors. Biden still wins this scenario but it's a lot tighter.
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10-29-2020, 11:10 AM | #5303 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
Exactly. If the MoE is the same direction in the max level for every poll, it's a massive polling error.
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10-29-2020, 11:22 AM | #5304 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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The best case scenario for Trump is a narrow win while losing the popular vote by millions more than in 2016(look at the polling differences in safe Red states). That isn't a recipe for stability.
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10-29-2020, 11:45 AM | #5305 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
I still don't get these takes. Maybe I'm missing something, but what is unique about Biden that he would appeal to red states but not to moderates in swing states?
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10-29-2020, 12:10 PM | #5306 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
I think Biden will win. I'm just saying any prediction that Trump will win includes the idea that he'll fair worse in red states than in 2016. He's down 8 to 10 points from 2016 in pretty much every red state. Outside a handful of crazies, nobody thinks Trump can win the popular vote and it's almost certainly going to be way more lopsided than in 2016.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-29-2020, 12:19 PM | #5307 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
Just added it up. Unless I missed something, the "polling errors as bad as 2016" scenario is 335-203 Biden.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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10-29-2020, 12:35 PM | #5308 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
Right, I get that you think Biden will win. I just don't agree with the scenarios of Trump's win. In 2016, Pennsylvania was just under 3 points to the right of the popular vote. If Trump wins the election, but loses the popular vote by more, then Pennsylvania will have moved even more to the right. That doesn't make sense given that 2018 went heavily blue for Dems in PA and all evidence shows that Biden is more popular than Clinton in PA. I guess my point is that in the Trump wins scenarios, i believe the popular vote will heavily shift towards him. He could win PA, but I don't think he wins PA again but loses the popular vote by more. That just doesn't track with what we've seen in 2018 or the 2020 primaries.
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Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner Last edited by larrymcg421 : 10-29-2020 at 12:38 PM. |
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10-29-2020, 01:01 PM | #5309 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
Even if you flip Georgia and Florida, which it has a 1% wins for Biden, it's still a 290-248 win for Biden. Even if he picks up Pennsylvania, it's 270-268 Biden and he has to pick up something like Arizona or Nevada. SI
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10-29-2020, 01:03 PM | #5310 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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My (pessimistic) prediction:
Biden wins, but it is close enough that the GOP files some frivolous lawsuits in a few swing states. Then, the "moderate" GOP Senators propose a "deal" for "the good of the country" in which they agree to accept the election results in exchange for enough Dem Senators to pledge to not reform the House, the Courts, or the Filibuster. The Media JUMPS on this as SO REASONABLE. And all the ancient institutionalist Dem Senators readily agree. The GOP then uses the filibuster to submarine the recovery. They gain control of the House and Senate in 2022 and the Presidency in 2024. At which point they eliminate the filibuster and expand the courts. |
10-29-2020, 01:08 PM | #5311 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
Mitch: "Gawrsh - we're you reading my wish diary?" SI
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10-29-2020, 01:54 PM | #5312 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Biden killing it at his Florida rally which is being broadcast on FOX News. I can't believe they haven't turned away from it, meanwhile Trump is busy at his rally calling Adam Schiff "watermelon" head.
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10-29-2020, 02:03 PM | #5313 | |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Quote:
Even if we say Trump's 40% drops to 30% post blow-out loss, that will still be somewhere in the neighborhood of 65-75% of the Republican party full-on Trumpian. They are not going away, but hopefully we keep seeing them get weaker and weaker. Last edited by GrantDawg : 10-29-2020 at 02:04 PM. |
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10-29-2020, 02:08 PM | #5314 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Forward this to all your Republican friends to get the word out:
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10-29-2020, 02:46 PM | #5315 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
The best way to moderate the GOP is for the Dems to restore majority rule. The current GOP is only viable nationally because of the counter-majoritarian elements in the system. A conservative party can win in a majority rule system, but this version can't.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-29-2020, 02:49 PM | #5316 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
Yes. The goal should not be to destroy the GOP. The goal should not be one party rule. The goal should be to enact structural reforms that make it impossible for any party to win with a MAGA platform. The goal should be to require each party to present credible solutions for people who live outside of rural areas. If you make those changes, then the GOP will evolve and adapt and start winning elections again. |
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10-29-2020, 02:50 PM | #5317 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
This would be fine, because the extreme centrist Dems are not going to go for the abolishment of the filibuster and any extreme-ish type reforms. I mean, Feinstein was giving Lindsey Graham a hug after the Barrett hearings for fuck's sake, nobody trusts her or those of her ilk to end this ridiculous nightmare.
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My listening habits |
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10-29-2020, 02:50 PM | #5318 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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I mean, one candidate has a 9 point national lead, and we are all sweating the results. If this were happening in any other country, we'd call it a failed state.
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10-29-2020, 03:07 PM | #5319 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
I mean we kind of are a failed state.
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10-29-2020, 03:12 PM | #5320 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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To be frank, I think the sweating the results is irrational. There's always a remote chance of something you don't expect happening, but it's more people being afraid of Trump somehow winning than any rational expectation he would actually lose by 9 points and still win.
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10-29-2020, 03:12 PM | #5321 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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If there's one thing that the Trump presidency has shown us, it's that if a party wants to totally ratfuck the system, they really have no issues in doing so. Checks and balances are only as strong as the will of lawmakers and/or the justice system.
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My listening habits |
10-29-2020, 03:13 PM | #5322 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
I don't think this is true anymore in America. Conservatism is dead. |
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10-29-2020, 03:39 PM | #5323 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Happy to report that my entire voting experience took 14 mins from driveway of the location to back in my car.
Lots of factors contributed to that success I think, including waiting until later in the early voting window, going in the early afternoon after a morning storm, and picking a location that might have a bit older average resident. Plus it's a relatively new building (part of a county complex with fire station, extension office, etc) so I banked on fewer people being sure where it was and going elsewhere.
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10-29-2020, 04:23 PM | #5324 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
Definitions matter, obviously, but a Canadian or Euro conservative party would do well in the U.S.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-29-2020, 04:25 PM | #5325 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
A lot of politicians will lose their jobs, but the party will be fine.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-29-2020, 04:35 PM | #5326 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Maybe, but that would be centrist at best compared to traditional US standards. It would not be palatable to a lot of people on the right in America even now. |
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10-29-2020, 04:36 PM | #5327 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Perdue pulled out of the last debate in Georgia. I don't know who wins this but I've never seen a person get owned this hard in a debate sequence in awhile. More Democrats need to be like this.
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10-29-2020, 04:37 PM | #5328 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Conservatives in Canada are arguably to the left of the Democrats in this country.
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10-29-2020, 04:38 PM | #5329 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Yes, but that's only because the system allows a far-right 45% of voters party to win consistently. If they had to get a majority, the candidates would present more moderate positions and eventually enough people would support them as the better alternative to the more liberal party.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-29-2020, 05:01 PM | #5330 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
They likely wouldn't have the same positions in the US that they would in Europe or Canada though. European and Canadian parties have to deal with that in the aftermath of WW2, liberal parties were able to go MUCH farther than in the US - the NHS in the UK was put in place when Churchill's Tories were swept from power after WW2, and then they couldn't get rid of it because people liked it too much (Churchill was never a fan of the NHS). There is also the issue that in the US, a lot of mass social programs were blocked because it may help the black folk, whereas European countries at the time were far more homogeneous. A lot of these folks would be more than fine in a society that never instituted these systems. I think Boris & Co. in the UK would love to get rid of the NHS and replace it with a more private based system if they thought they could get away with it.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 10-29-2020 at 05:01 PM. |
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10-29-2020, 05:40 PM | #5331 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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I'm SHOCKED! Shocked I tell you!
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
10-29-2020, 05:55 PM | #5332 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
Eventually, a conservative party would take positions to the right of the liberal party, but not so far right that they couldn't win a majority. All I'm really saying is that there is plenty of space between the current Trump cult and the Dems to fit a new, conservative party.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-29-2020, 06:08 PM | #5333 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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McConnell must feel supremely confident of a win because he's pulled out an old Trump ad supporting him that I haven't seen in a long, long time. Most GOP, even in KY, aren't running on the "I love Trump and he loves me" message this time around.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
10-29-2020, 06:15 PM | #5334 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
Actually, I'd say the opposite. If McGrath has a chance, she will have to convince some people to be split ticket voters (Trump/McGrath). Running ads with Trump tells me he's trying to prevent that from happening and may be slightly concerned.
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10-29-2020, 06:22 PM | #5335 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Maybe you're right, given Trump's relative popularity here. McGrath did run one ad with a Trump voter who was anti-McConnell which I didn't find to be all that great. I think her most effective ad was the one Rex Chapman did for her.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
10-29-2020, 08:22 PM | #5336 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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This shit is why Trump might still win.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-29-2020, 09:08 PM | #5337 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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Pa. Secretary Of State Wants All Counties To Start Counting Mail-In Ballots On Election Day – CBS Pittsburgh
refreshing to see "Each Pennsylvania county has a different plan for how to count mail-in ballots" as the sub headline Also they have 5 days to complete count of the mail in ballots, so if it's even close I could see some red areas deliberately dragging all week to put up false hope of a win. Last edited by stevew : 10-29-2020 at 09:09 PM. |
10-29-2020, 10:47 PM | #5338 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Biden looks good in sunglasses, he should just utilize that look all the time.
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10-29-2020, 11:02 PM | #5339 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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The "Weekend at Bernie's" look?
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10-29-2020, 11:17 PM | #5340 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
Yep. There is a reason there is Biden 2020 merch with just Aviators on them.
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10-30-2020, 07:25 AM | #5341 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Maybe this article has been mentioned previously and I missed it, if so, sorry bout that.
I just thought it was a fun read for those who are wired for hypotheticals. It's fivethirtyeight showing how 13 proposed but non-existent states (reconfigurations of existing territory) would have affected the 2016 presidential election. (Note: You have to use the pull down menu in the 2 maps it shows to see the other options, took me a minute to figure that out)
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10-30-2020, 08:23 AM | #5342 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
10-30-2020, 09:15 AM | #5343 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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That's about 11% too low for my liking.
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10-30-2020, 09:40 AM | #5344 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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The Economist has the presidency at 95% Biden, the house guaranteed, and the Senate at 83% probability to go Dem.
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He's just like if Snow White was competitive, horny, and capable of beating the shit out of anyone that called her Pops. Like Steam? Join the FOFC Steam group here: http://steamcommunity.com/groups/FOFConSteam |
10-30-2020, 09:56 AM | #5345 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Number One Reason for Biden Hope:
The pollsters have all corrected for the methodology that got them to underestimate Trump vs. Clinton (i.e. underweighting non-college educated). And even with that correction, Biden still has a larger and more stable lead than Clinton ever did. Number One Reason for Trump Hope: All of the Midwestern states will have him ahead early b/c they (insanely) don't start counting early votes until election day. Because so many Dem voters have voted by mail and b/c it is still pretty close, Trump will be leading most (all?) of those on Wednesday morning with a ton of votes outstanding. At that point, he just needs 5 of the 6 conservative Justices to buy some wrong theory, and he's in. |
10-30-2020, 09:57 AM | #5346 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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dola:
And I am more than ready for NC, GA, and TX to start leaning blue so we can all stop obsessing over PA. Let PA go the way of Missouri and Ohio. Just paint it red and ignore it. |
10-30-2020, 09:59 AM | #5347 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
Sure, PA, but I think you misspelled FL SI
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10-30-2020, 10:00 AM | #5348 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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10-30-2020, 10:18 AM | #5349 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Quote:
Wow that's pretty crazy coming from a conservative magazine.
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10-30-2020, 10:41 AM | #5350 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Well The Economist is far more Classic Liberal Conservative. So they hate everything Trump stands for aside from tax cuts .
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