WW XCIII - Mine Wars - Battle of Blair Mountain - SYMPATHIZERS WIN!!!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i'd like to go on the mission, because if i find something in particular it will help us.

on the other hand - things can be passed with impunity, so i am okay with not going on the mission - but i wonder if the people that do, when they come back, if they found something, would be willing to pass it around to others if it's not useful to them? that way maybe we could get the potential benefits of more of us going without actually going...

I've thought about this and what's to prevent a wolf from passing it to another wolf? Or, worse, a villager passing to a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm not sure that my specialty matters, but I think it may be more useful in patrolling than the others. There's a possibility that it will give me a 2x edge. So, I will do that.

I'm very suspicious of anyone who's signed up for the mission at this point. We have no idea if we can manage to squeak out these camp jobs at this point. That smells of Sympathizers eager to get their hands on something.

WORK ON PATROLLING

Autumn you are a searcher, correct? If so I think you, like Poli, actually have a good reason to go on the mission. We have no indication that your bonus applies to the camp work at all and seems much more likely to be mission friendly.

[Passacaglia]

Gladhandling 3
Searching 3
Patrolling 2
Food Distribution 3
Hunting 2
Oratory 2
Treasury 1 of 2
Organizing 0
No Reveal 3

Here's what we've got so far. We don't have a reveal from path, but he indicated that he was either food distribution or treasury -- since we have three food distributors, I figure he was treasury. I'm not even sure there's an organizing skill, but I'm assuming there is, since everything else we've have to do has had a skill associated with it, and we have one skill missing. With only three who haven't revealed, it's still possible we have three organizers in that bunch (maybe the wording of the skill made it seem really powerful, and they didn't want to reveal it), but it seems unlikely. So I'll assume (for now) two organizers.

Patrolling is covered by CR and USFLTecmo. Obviously a third with patrolling skill would be nice. Do we think it's worth it to go from 6 to 7 here? I'm leaning toward no, since the extra person we put there wouldn't help cover us if CR or USFL are lying, and it would just add an extra person into the mix of possible liars if we fail.

Food Distribution is the huge one, and will be difficult. We need 15, and should have 9 from Danny, EagleFan, and Lathum. So we'll need six more to finish the job. Backup thoughts? Might be useful here, since with this many people on it, faking seems very likely. Would love to get 18 units of work here, but that takes 12 people, and seems unlikely.

Organizing is the tricky one. If we have all three 'no reveal' folks on it, then they could help out, and still not reveal if they don't want to. But we'd still have to act as if only two of them are organizers. Let's assume we only have two anyway, so we'll need four here (assuming organizers can do x3).

Patrolling -- 2
Food Distribution -- 9
Organizing -- 4

So that's 15 people out of 19. We still need to find out about organizing before I feel comfy with that number, though.
Organizing --

[Passacaglia]

Autumn is a hunter like me.

[quote]
1. Poli Searching
2. Lathum Food Distribution
3. Passacaglia Hunting
4. dubb Gladhandling
5. claphamsa Gladhandling
6. ntndeacon x3
7. USFLTecmo Patrolling
8. TheNorm
9. EagleFan Food Distribution
10. Schmidty
11. Chief Rum Patrolling
12. DaddyTorgo Oratory
13. Danny Food Distribution
14. PurdueBrad Oratory
15. Autumn Hunting
[dead]16. path Treasury[/dead]
17. The Jackal Searching
18. RendeR Searching
19. Barkeep Treasury
20. jeheinz Gladhandling

[Barkeep49]

Ahh thanks. I hadn't loaded up my list when I asked that.

[Passacaglia]

Sticking with the 15 of 19 theory, that means we can afford four people to go on the mission. That's the three searchers and...PB, I guess. This means we'll have NO backup. And if organizing is a x2 skill, and if we only have two of them, we'll actually need 17 of 19. On the other hand, if it's a x3 skill, and we have three of them, we'll only need 14. So that's something.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm not sure that my specialty matters, but I think it may be more useful in patrolling than the others. There's a possibility that it will give me a 2x edge. So, I will do that.

I'm very suspicious of anyone who's signed up for the mission at this point. We have no idea if we can manage to squeak out these camp jobs at this point. That smells of Sympathizers eager to get their hands on something.

WORK ON PATROLLING

Originally Posted by Autumn

dola

To further explain, so far unless more specializations are revealed we need 21 people to complete our three jobs. Hopefully we'll see some more specialists, but until we do we can't afford anyone to go on the mission.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sticking with the 15 of 19 theory, that means we can afford four people to go on the mission. That's the three searchers and...PB, I guess. This means we'll have NO backup. And if organizing is a x2 skill, and if we only have two of them, we'll actually need 17 of 19. On the other hand, if it's a x3 skill, and we have three of them, we'll only need 14. So that's something.

Just to put this out there, I find Autumn's push to ignore the mission highly suspect, the numbers do not support ignoring the mission at all. And after seeing how very important the mission was to the day 1 camp win I think there is no excuse to ever totally ignore the mission put before us.

As for who should go, I think perhaps since there are 3 of us with the specific searching skill that only those three should go, allowing the maximum people to work on the camps that have no direct usefulness doing a searching mission.

Thoughts?


RENDER JOINS THE MISSION

[EagleFan]

work on food distribution

I am x3.

I am VERY suspicious of people who would jump out immediately to go on the mission when we have so much manpower needed on tasks today. Not even waiting to see what our numbers look like near the deadline to see if it can be spared but jumping immediately at the task for their own personal gain. That is not very union like at all. We are supposed to be in this for the collective good of the union, not for selfish personal gains.

One of these people is already on a suspicion list by his "I think I am xxxx", as if trying to setup an excuse later in the game. How much remembering is involved, read the PM it's pretty straight forward.

[Abe Sargent]

Unknown to the union, many of the major coal companies began starting their own businesses in WV in order to get a part of the profits. Coal production in WV increases exponentially as more coal will be made in WV than any other state. As late as 1912, the WV mines were paying 25 cents to the ton when other coal companies were paying 90. Then add in company stores, which also turned a nice profit, and the company could easily undersell union coal.

The companies in WV take the other coal companies and union to courts and cry conspiracy several times.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree. Poli to a certain extent is explained. PB? Not as much.

Okay, and it would look less fishy if I patrolled, did food distribution, or organization? My skills are a waste today, so I can put in 1 unit of labor on the camp or, and I agree with Danny on this one, I can go out and try to find something useful to myself or the village. What's fishy? I don't recall the mission saying you had to be good at searching today.

[path12]

Well, that was a quick comeback. Good luck labor!

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Just to put this out there, I find Autumn's push to ignore the mission highly suspect, the numbers do not support ignoring the mission at all. And after seeing how very important the mission was to the day 1 camp win I think there is no excuse to ever totally ignore the mission put before us.

I'm trying to catch up but I want to point out that my thinking was based on the nubmers I have written down in my spreadsheet. They may be wrong and I'll look at what numbers others have, but by my count we needed 21 people at the time.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Just to put this out there, I find Autumn's push to ignore the mission highly suspect, the numbers do not support ignoring the mission at all. And after seeing how very important the mission was to the day 1 camp win I think there is no excuse to ever totally ignore the mission put before us.

As for who should go, I think perhaps since there are 3 of us with the specific searching skill that only those three should go, allowing the maximum people to work on the camps that have no direct usefulness doing a searching mission.

Thoughts?


RENDER JOINS THE MISSION

Did you read what the benefits of joining the mission are?

[PurdueBrad]

And furthermore, I did say if the village chose to do the camp, I would move my action.

I'm not trying to jump at you BK, just a growing frustration over a couple games.

[Autumn]

dola

Okay, having read Pass's post that Render quoted, the difference is that I was not assuming we have any specialists who have not revealed. I made that clear in my original statement. Obivously Pass reached different numbers because he made some educated guesses as to what specialists are left.

What's suspicious to me is people pushing a mission when it will be very, very difficult to get this camp won over today. We don't have 100% information at this point, and we know we have Sympathizers who would gladly fake their work. Pass's numbers show that we, at best, need 15 people to sincerely do their work (and not have lied about their skills). That's cutting it close.

Items would be great and I hope we manage to send a few after them, but it's rather early in teh day to be signing up to go get them.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Any player, whatever their allegiance, may go on this mission with a high probability that you will find an item of usefulness. It is not guaranteed, but many can really help your side.

Bolded parts to show why I made the choice I made.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Okay, and it would look less fishy if I patrolled, did food distribution, or organization? My skills are a waste today, so I can put in 1 unit of labor on the camp or, and I agree with Danny on this one, I can go out and try to find something useful to myself or the village. What's fishy? I don't recall the mission saying you had to be good at searching today.

Clearly anyone who doesn't have a specialty can only contribute one unit of labor. But the numbers show we really, really need those units of labor. I think it's fishy to weaken the union's numbers on the camp jobs just because you, or anyone else, doesn't have a specialty.

[Passacaglia]

Thanks for the quote, PB. I think I misread the mission a little -- I thought that only one person who went on the mission would get an item, but it looks like several CAN get one. This really doesn't make me feel better about you, though. If you work on the camps, I know you're helping my side, but if you go on the mission, all I know is that you're helping *your* side. You dig?

[claphamsa]

work on organizineg

someone has to do it!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

dola

Okay, having read Pass's post that Render quoted, the difference is that I was not assuming we have any specialists who have not revealed. I made that clear in my original statement. Obivously Pass reached different numbers because he made some educated guesses as to what specialists are left.

What's suspicious to me is people pushing a mission when it will be very, very difficult to get this camp won over today. We don't have 100% information at this point, and we know we have Sympathizers who would gladly fake their work. Pass's numbers show that we, at best, need 15 people to sincerely do their work (and not have lied about their skills). That's cutting it close.

Items would be great and I hope we manage to send a few after them, but it's rather early in teh day to be signing up to go get them.

Just another note -- our best-case scenario is that we need 14. But that would require ntndeacon, Schmidty, and TheNorm all to be organizers, and all to reveal. That would also mean everyone would have revealed, and I'm not sure if we want that at this point.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I've thought about this and what's to prevent a wolf from passing it to another wolf? Or, worse, a villager passing to a wolf.

i'm not saying people passing stuff around would buy trust, but if someone goes on the mission and finds something that they can't use it'd be nice of them to pass it to me, and if i can use it i will (and then they'll have trust of me at least) and if not i'll pass it back.

presumably then you'd notice if you passed someone something (say a knife) and then somebody got knifed to death - you'd assume they were not exactly on our side.

[USFLTecmo]

I do advocate trying to win the camp over today. I have the suspicion, reading Abe's posts, that if we completely abandon the camp today, it'll have dire consequences.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Autumn

dola

To further explain, so far unless more specializations are revealed we need 21 people to complete our three jobs. Hopefully we'll see some more specialists, but until we do we can't afford anyone to go on the mission.

Agreed. And frankly anyone who just jumped on the mission because they aren't a x3 on one of the things we need is someone I'm looking askance at. 1 point of work is still one point of work here folks, and we need to win camps.

[jeheinz72]

I'm a gladhander but I'm happy to help out at x1 strength for the camp. I'd like to see us make a genuine effort to win it. Items are nice, but I have a feeling we're not coming back with like 10 villager items here folks, be real.

[Autumn]

We've got no one on organization right now, and that's worrisome. I think Pass and I should work on patrolling, as I think our skill descrip suggests there's some chance we'd be more effective. That would give us 6 on patrolling (and possibly 8).

I'm worried about the mission deadline. It gives the Sympathizers a good chance to just go out on it "to make sure someone does" and then leave us understaffed if others don't show up, or don't have the specialties we're planning on.

I'll have to look at the numbers again, but I would think a minimum of maybe the three searchers should go on the mission.

[PurdueBrad]

Fine, I'll switch and go to where we most need people. For the record, I still think Danny's reasoning about the mission isn't necessarily bad.

unvote mission

work on organization

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

We've got no one on organization right now, and that's worrisome. I think Pass and I should work on patrolling, as I think our skill descrip suggests there's some chance we'd be more effective. That would give us 6 on patrolling (and possibly 8).

I'm worried about the mission deadline. It gives the Sympathizers a good chance to just go out on it "to make sure someone does" and then leave us understaffed if others don't show up, or don't have the specialties we're planning on.

I'll have to look at the numbers again, but I would think a minimum of maybe the three searchers should go on the mission.

Autumn, we've actually got 6 on patrolling already with CR and USFL, and that's all we need. If we can afford to have two people doing backup, I'll do patrolling (even though I'm not convinced I'm x2 for this task exactly). But I figure that we're going to be needed elsewhere.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'm a gladhander but I'm happy to help out at x1 strength for the camp. I'd like to see us make a genuine effort to win it. Items are nice, but I have a feeling we're not coming back with like 10 villager items here folks, be real.

Agreed, but it says "most". So if we send 3 people, most is 2. If we send 10, most would start at 6. Big difference IMO.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Agreed, but it says "most". So if we send 3 people, most is 2. If we send 10, most would start at 6. Big difference IMO.

huh?

[Autumn]

If we do:
Mission: Poli, Render, Jackal (all at 3x)
Patrol(6): Chief, USFL, Autumn, Pass (6-8)
Food(15): Lathum, EagleFan, Danny, Barkeep (10)
Organize: Clap, Purdue, (2)

So of the 6 people left we would have to hope for 11 man-hours out of them. It doesn't seem likely we have any more food distributors, so we would need 5 people on food and hope for 6 out of the last one? What am I missing here?

[Autumn]

Oh USFL is a Patroller? I missed that somehow.

[Autumn]

If we do:
Mission: Poli, Render, Jackal (all at 3x)
Patrol(6): Chief, USFL, Autumn (7-8)
Food(15): Lathum, EagleFan, Danny, Barkeep, Pass, Purdue (12)
Organize(8): Clap (1)

So, we would need three more people on Food. That would leave us three hopefully specialists to go on Organize. If they're all 3x we're set. If they're 2x, we're screwed. If they're not specialists, we're screwed. If they don't show up, we're screwed.

I'm not sure we want to cut it that close.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Agreed, but it says "most". So if we send 3 people, most is 2. If we send 10, most would start at 6. Big difference IMO.

I know what it says and I'd agree that all spare people should go on the mission, keyword: spare.

Let's not fly off half-cocked here so we can get some item that we have no idea the strength of. For all we know we're potentially sacrificing a camp for little benefit (granted the opposite is also true)

[Autumn]

I could switch to Food. That would leave us at just 6 on Patrol but give us an extra person to go on Organize. What do people think?

At this point it's going to be child's play for the Sympathizers to sabotage the day. I think we may have to give up on the mission.

[Autumn]

Sorry for all hte posts, I'm doing a boring project, and thinking outloud here. Food Distribution is probably the one we want to add extra to, since it would be really difficult to figure out who was the Sympathizer among all those one unit people. If we do have organizers we could leave it to the three organizers and two patrollers and at least we'd have suspects if they fake it. I'm not sure if we have enough to be "fake-proof" all around.

[ntndeacon]

Work on Organizing

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

If we do:
Mission: Poli, Render, Jackal (all at 3x)
Patrol(6): Chief, USFL, Autumn (7-8)
Food(15): Lathum, EagleFan, Danny, Barkeep, Pass, Purdue (12)
Organize(8): Clap (1)

So, we would need three more people on Food. That would leave us three hopefully specialists to go on Organize. If they're all 3x we're set. If they're 2x, we're screwed. If they're not specialists, we're screwed. If they don't show up, we're screwed.

I'm not sure we want to cut it that close.

This is confusing -- why did you move PB from organization to food?

So there are 6 people not on your list. Three need to do food, and the rest probably on organization. And yeah, if they're 2x and there's only two of them, we're screwed -- we'd have to bring in a searcher, basically, cuz we would need 17 people on the camps.

[jeheinz72]

I guess here's how I analyze our different possible plans of attack on the day

#1 - We abandon the camp, all-out on the mission. So we a lose a camp (bad), give us no new lead on sympathizers (bad), give sympathizers items (bad), get ourselves items (good).

#2 - We overload the camp, virtually abandon mission. We don't get items (bad), neither do sympathizers (good), either win the camp (good) or they have to put more effort into sabotge (bad but good too).

#3 - We go paper thin on the camp (basically just cover the amount needed), everyone else to the mission. We either win the camp (good) or they sabotage and in doing so give us a very small group to pick from with regard to our lynch vote (bad but some good). We get some items, not as many (ok)

I think plan 3 is the best course of action. We cover the 3 camp objectives as efficiently as possible and anyone leftover goes on the mission. This is my problem with people just instantly going on the mission, it's going to make achieving this scenario more challenging.

I'm a gladhander, but maybe it's still best for me to put my 1 unit of work on Food or Organize or whatever rather than to go try and find an item, ya dig?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

huh?

The missions says that not everyone will get an item but "most" will. So if we only send three people, it's two or, at best, three items. If we sent ten (for example), it is 6 or more items we would get (assuming the word most holds up the way I understand it).

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

The missions says that not everyone will get an item but "most" will. So if we only send three people, it's two or, at best, three items. If we sent ten (for example), it is 6 or more items we would get (assuming the word most holds up the way I understand it).

I don't see where it says that.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Any player, whatever their allegiance, may go on this mission with a high probability that you will find an item of usefulness. It is not guaranteed, but many can really help your side.

Sorry, the word most does not appear (dreamed it?) but the plural of items as well as "high probability" implies that there are numerous things available that would be helpful.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

This is confusing -- why did you move PB from organization to food?

I just realized that we have to hold out space for any organizing specialists. We can probably assume there are no more food specialists so we should throw the one unit people at food.

Ntndeacon, you're signed up for organizing now. Are you a specialist?

[PurdueBrad]

Apparently my work has been requested elsewhere. ROTATE.

unwork organizing

work food

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I just realized that we have to hold out space for any organizing specialists. We can probably assume there are no more food specialists so we should throw the one unit people at food.

Ntndeacon, you're signed up for organizing now. Are you a specialist?

Word. I understand wanting to keep some skills secret at this point, but it would have been nice to at least know if he would be good at organizing or not. I get the feeling he's trying to hint that he is by just putting in work on it and not saying anything else, but I think that it needs to be out in the open so we can do some planning around it, cuz if he's not, we're in a much bigger hole (unless TheNorm and Schmidty bail us out).

[Autumn]

Let's assume we have three Organizers (though that seems unlikely).

We could go with

Patrol 6 (2 union members)
Food 15 (9 union members)
Organize 9 (3 union members)

If any one of those 14 members is a Sympathizer they will almost certainly sabotage our efforts and we will lose the day (but maybe gain some items).

What would it take to cover our butts here? Probably an extra three on each mission in order to cover for rotten specialists (though of course that's still not fool proof). With only five other members, we can't do that. We could put three extra on Food (requiring at least two Sympathizers sabotage, including a specialist). The other two would at least give us a very good suspect list if they sabotaged. We'd have two left to go on the mission.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Apparently my work has been requested elsewhere. ROTATE.

unwork organizing

work food

That's just my suggestion. It seems wisest to me but I'm open to counter evidence.

[Abe Sargent]

In 1901, Pennsylvania mines, which had been producing much coal for decades, began to decline in production as coal interests moved south to West Virginia. In that same year, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois all begin to decline in production, just as WV is reaching the beginning of a long apex at the top.

[Autumn]

Another thought that comes to mind is that Path may have been an organizer, in which case we'd have to scrap the mission.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Mine is one that has already been mentioned, though not useful for either converting the camp or searching.

Here's post 205 by path. From that, I had him down as food distribution or treasury, but when I saw that we had three food distributors, I put him down for treasury. Of course, he could be lying. ALSO, we still don't even know that there IS an organizing skill! If there isn't, then we're really screwed.

[The Jackal]

hey just came around and caught up

i think since i'm a searcher i should definitely go on the mission - but i'll be checking in beforehands to make sure it's not necessary for me to stay back and work on the camps

GO ON MISSION