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#5451 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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#5452 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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#5453 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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#5454 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
But also the suburbs around them so who knows what that means. The crazy thing is that almost all of the most populous counties in Texas are over 100% voting of 2016 and Election Day hasn't even happened yet. Now, Texas has pretty robust early voting so in my county, like 80% of people did early voting in 2016. So don't expect to see like another 50% of votes cast on Election Day. But that a number of these counties are running over well over 100% of 2016 already probably is good news for the Dems. SI
__________________
Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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#5455 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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#5456 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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#5457 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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#5458 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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That's a really confusing graphic since O'Rourke and Obama are both Democrats. SI
__________________
Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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#5459 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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#5460 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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#5461 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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I wish. Puyallup has exploded over the past decade. I think total population is up over 50k and traffic is absolutely awful because the roads here are still built to support traffic for when it was mostly cows and sheep. |
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#5462 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Great question, Fox News!
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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#5463 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
you should try going to a concert at white river amphitheater in auburn. holy shit. getting off 405 or 5 takes forever....and then it's a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG ride on fricking 1 lane joe's road through auburn to the amphitheater. Because they won't let them widen it because....yokels.... made me missed the first 4 songs of Rush in 2007 ![]() |
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#5464 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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I'm okay with Hillary staying quiet.
everybody is mental about hating her |
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#5465 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Anyone know where John Kerry is?
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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#5466 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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![]() Hamilton COunty ohio (cincy) |
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#5467 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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#5468 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Where is Joe Lieberman?
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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#5469 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I saw Paramore/No Doubt there. It literally took us 3 hours to get out of the parking lot. Worst set up I even saw. Getting in wasn't much better but we got there early and got lucky. |
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#5470 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Where is Jimmy Hoffa?
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#5471 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Barnegat, NJ
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Seriously though, all of the "Where is ....." jokes made me wonder if John McCain would have had any impact on the election if he were still alive. For Trump's base I would say no. Maybe for some independents if McCain was being a very vocal reminder of how badly Trump has spoken about veterans?
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#5472 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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It's unfortunate Dubya has stayed silent.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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#5473 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
I read that McCain polls real high with folks in the suburbs. It was a reason Biden played up the family endorsement so much. |
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#5474 |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
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#5475 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Where's Waldo?
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
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#5476 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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#5477 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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#5478 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
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#5479 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Ok, so I did a back of the napkin (Excel spreadsheet) run of the early voting data in Texas. Really simple variables here and linear equations - nothing fancy. Steps:
And... nothing. The numbers are very similar to the 2016 (52-43-5) and 2018 (51-48-1) race. The Dems have grabbed about a half percentage point from the GOP. So while a number of the most Democratic urban counties are showing really strong numbers, so are some suburban ones that typically lean more Republican. That said, I can't take into account a couple of things and that's what you would need a political consultant and access into a party voter database:
I have no idea what this means for Election Day turnout. I don't know how many more votes are out there. Of the 40 most populous counties in Texas, only 4(!) are under 100% of turnout in 2016. So where is the enthusiasm and where are the votes left for Election Day? Also, it feels like this just comes down to the suburbs - are they more blue this time around or do they stay just red enough for Trump and Cornyn. Using the 2018 numbers, the GOP only has a 50.5-48.7 advantage with the early voting turnout (Cruz beat Beto 50.9-48.3). Lastly, a huge deal here is that the Texas House could be flipped, which means redistricting would have to be a lot more bipartisan for the next decade. SI
__________________
Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 11-01-2020 at 10:56 PM. |
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#5480 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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I did your same experiment with the GA numbers and found much more encouraging info. It came out with Biden ahead 52-48 (using the Trump/Clinton totals from 2016).
__________________
Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner |
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#5481 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Again!
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#5482 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Looking at the info on when the vote counts will be in, it seems pretty unlikely that we'll have the election called on Tuesday night unless Biden wins Florida, or it's an absolute blowout for him. There are other scenarios that could lead to it getting called for him, but they all call for him to win multiple close states on Tuesday--mainly taking 2 out of three in OH-NC-GA. I don't see any realistic way that Trump gets to 270 on Tuesday. He'd have to win all three mentioned, plus have something like PA-OH-MI all called, or two of those three plus AZ.
If it hasn't been posted here, yet, here's a good breakdown of when states count votes: When To Expect Election Results In Every State | FiveThirtyEight
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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#5483 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Quote:
It's what cult leaders do, test the resolve of their followers.
__________________
“The only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn, burn, burn, like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders across the stars and in the middle you see the blue centerlight pop and everybody goes "Awww!” |
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#5484 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
2020 called and said we aren't getting our election results on Tuesday night.
__________________
Why choose failure when success is an option? |
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#5485 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Yup. Totally on brand.
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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#5486 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Nov 2014
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please just let it be a blowout tuesday so we don't have to go through trump's bullcrap that entire week.
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#5487 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Biden losing NC certainly doesn't mean Trump will win, but Biden winning NC makes it almost impossible that Trump could win.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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#5488 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Back to 90/10.
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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#5489 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Let's get this thing done. Take him down.
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#5490 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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#5491 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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On a scale of 1 to 10, what is everyone's anxiety level for this election?
I would put myself at a 7 today. I think I am being too dramatic, but sometimes you can't control anxiety.
__________________
Why choose failure when success is an option? |
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#5492 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Probably a 7 today. Higher tomorrow. I'm confident Biden wins, we flip the Senate. I worry about Republican shenanigans tomorrow. I will feel better when the networks call it for Biden.
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#5493 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Nov 2014
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i made a bet with a coworker...
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#5494 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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2 or 3. I'm still generally of the opinion that the world will keep turning regardless of who wins, and I don't think either of the candidates have any intention of taking the most important necessary actions for the betterment of the future of the planet and its inhabitants, so it's more or less an acceptance that not all that much will change regardless in the grand scheme.
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#5495 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
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#5496 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
This has been my general position since I was a teen - until the past 4 years, and now this election. I don't know how anyone could look at what Trump has done and think "not all that much will change." He's already done so many things to change the way our government is supposed to work (for the worse) and polarizing the electorate on misinformation and outright lies that another 4 years of it is going to be a disaster for the long-term survival of our country. And spare me the "every politician lies" crap. this goes well beyond the levels we've ever seen before. I will admit that I am not personally feeling any of it as an effect on my family, finances, general living of life (outside of Covid, of course) - but that's the exact point of why he's doing it and how he's getting away with it. The only tangible result of the last 4 years on me is the lack of civility, polarization from people I used to associate with, and fraying of nerves as I am forced to consider the wiping away of things I thought were a given about our country that are under attack. So yeah, the world will keep turning, but I'm not sure I'm going to enjoy the ride from this particular seat.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-02-2020 at 09:06 AM. |
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#5497 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Usually i agree with this, but an unchecked Trump with a second term, a raging pandemic, and ghouls like Stephen Miller running things and we could drastically see out nation weakened. Hell, the brain drain alone from immigration policies is going to set us back generations. |
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#5498 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I would say I am a 7. As an upper middle class white male rationally I know a lot won't change for us. Hell, the Biden tax plan would hurt us as we would be in the bracket where we get taxed more. I just can't stomach that monster running unchecked for 4 years while his supporters scream how they owned the libatards again. It just depresses me where we have gotten to.
My concern is how much he is going to try and ratfuck the whole process and really fracture us as a nation. I have always had the faith that the system will work, and he has deteriorated that faith to the point of I'm not so sure anymore. |
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#5499 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
no ElPaso? Get a rope! |
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#5500 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: The scorched Desert
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Quote:
I have always been low anxiety as well, but I am much more in line with this and have been much more anxious than normal for the last 2-3 weeks. |
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