11-02-2020, 09:18 AM | #5501 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Around a 5 or 6. I can live with a Trump win assuming Senate flips to Democrat which will greatly control Trump. The odds right now are both will go Democrat, 538 has Senate flipping at around 75%. If the Senate picture was more of a toss up, my anxiety will go up another +2. Right now I'm reassured with the odds. I know there will be more drama from Trump if he loses but believe it'll work itself out eventually before inauguration day. And then we can move on with moderate Joe. Last edited by Edward64 : 11-02-2020 at 09:20 AM. |
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11-02-2020, 09:18 AM | #5502 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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11-02-2020, 09:20 AM | #5503 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Will they though? He has shown a propensity for passing legislature through EO. |
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11-02-2020, 09:23 AM | #5504 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Burke, VA
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12
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11-02-2020, 09:24 AM | #5505 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere More Familiar
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Compared to a normal election? Like a 15. Overall actual anxiety level? About a 5-6. Almost all of my anxiety stems from people in the general public doing stupid things because of results, rather than the election itself. I have concerns about the election, but not anxiety.
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11-02-2020, 09:26 AM | #5506 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Land O Lakes FL
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Can someone explain to me who this was supposed to be directed to? Was this supposed to energize his supporters? Was it to demoralize his detractors?
__________________
"The blind soldier fought for me in this war. The least I can do now is fight for him. I have eyes. He hasn’t. I have a voice on the radio, he hasn’t. I was born a white man. And until a colored man is a full citizen, like me, I haven’t the leisure to enjoy the freedom that colored man risked his life to maintain for me. I don’t own what I have until he owns an equal share of it. Until somebody beats me and blinds me, I am in his debt."- Orson Welles August 11, 1946 Last edited by miami_fan : 11-02-2020 at 09:30 AM. |
11-02-2020, 09:28 AM | #5507 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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1. Thankfully, my mindset has been pretty much 100% Romans 8:28 this time around. What happens, happens.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
11-02-2020, 09:34 AM | #5508 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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I saw a nonsensical interview with one of them. They mentioned "making a statement" by blocking up traffic or something like that. But really, the bottom line is this: anyone who thinks that anything they do is going to win NJ or NY for DJT isn't making rational decisions anyway, so trying to parse out the "logic" involved is an exercise in futility.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
11-02-2020, 09:36 AM | #5509 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I think those two are intertwined, though. The Senate is 75% flipping /because/ Biden is at 90%. If Trump wins the Presidency, it's because he won in Iowa (Ernst), North Carolina (Tillis), Arizona (McSally), and Georgia (both seats) and his coattails will deliver contested seats in places like Maine, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Arkansas, and maybe even Colorado and Michigan. If Trump wins, the Senate won't be a check on him, it will be even more red and even more of an enabler. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 11-02-2020 at 09:38 AM. |
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11-02-2020, 09:37 AM | #5510 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
It's the "show your Trump support" for those who don't own boats I guess. It also feels like a childish reaction to the Floyd protests where they gummed up traffic and caused inconvenience to the "all lives matter" crowd.
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11-02-2020, 09:49 AM | #5511 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I agree, I don't think it was directed at anyone per se, more just wanting to make a statement in a way that would be noticed.
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11-02-2020, 09:50 AM | #5512 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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They're the SILENT MAJORITY! (albeit not very good at being either)
SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
11-02-2020, 10:05 AM | #5513 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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All I know is a lot of Halloween chocolate is disappearing today.
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11-02-2020, 10:25 AM | #5514 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
9, but I have issues with Anxiety already :P For me it spirals out of control. The unknown of what happens tomorrow, what happens over the next week or month, thinking about how difficult it's been for me to manage my mental health over the last four years and empathy/concern for other humans in America as it relates to Trump and his ghouls being a huge part of that spiraling into "how would I handle the next 4 years". Ugh. Lets just get a blowout tomorrow. Then I can return to my average day to day anxiety of 5 or 6 that comes from just existing |
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11-02-2020, 10:40 AM | #5515 |
College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2002
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Been lurking here since back when it looked like Bernie might be the Dem nominee. The recent discussion of anxiety levels brings me out of the woodwork. Anxiety is my specialty.
Looking at the offshore betting markets makes me nervous. I've been tracking the state by state odds on Pinnacle, widely considered the sharpest book. The good news for Biden is that he has 259 electoral votes that look very secure, ie greater than 75% implied odds per the money line in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all of which have moved strongly in his favor in recent weeks. That means he only needs to win one of these states (and I'm not attempting to factor in the juice with these implied percentages): Pennsylvania -189 (65.4%) Arizona -131 (56.7%) North Carolina -115 (53.5%) Florida +122 (45.0%) Georgia +134 (42.7%) Ohio +205 (38.2%) Biden to win Presidency -190 (65.5%) Since I started tracking on 10/20, Pennsylvania has gone from -285 (74%) to as high as -325 (76.5%) before crashing the other way to its current -189 (65.4%). Iowa also crashed hard toward Trump this weekend, going from +120 (45.5%) to +242 (29.2%) in a matter of a couple days. Are the betting markets more accurate than projections like 538? I don't know. In 2016, Hillary was a -300 favorite (75%). I'd put my anxiety at a 9. I know that Biden only needs to pick off one of the above states. But if he loses Pennsylvania, and -189 favorites lose daily in baseball, it all rests on hitting one out of five coin flips, more or less, though Ohio starts to veer outside of coin flip range. Nerve-wracking for me, even if it should happen. |
11-02-2020, 11:00 AM | #5516 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
At this point? A 2. I can't do anything about it right now. I'll reassess on Tuesday night/Wed morning. I have faith that the poll numbers will be more accurate - in a lot of battleground states, Biden is polling above MOE. And yeah, Trump is going to try shenanigans. But how those shenanigans will upset things will depend on how close PA or AZ actually end up being. So I choose to not worry until tomorrow evening.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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11-02-2020, 11:01 AM | #5517 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Quote:
7 or 8 today, more tomorrow. It looks really good for Biden today, but 2016 looms. More tomorrow when we see what Trump is going to do if he loses.
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
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11-02-2020, 11:08 AM | #5518 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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I'm a 2 when I'm playing disc golf and out doing my thing, and about a 5 to 6 when I think about it. I'm sure that tomorrow it'll be higher. I'd rather not live through my feelings on election night 2016 again.
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11-02-2020, 11:20 AM | #5519 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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A good example of what pollsters are doing to try to avoid a repeat of 2016.
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11-02-2020, 11:23 AM | #5520 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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I'd say a 3.5 right now. And the only reason it's not a 1 is because of how awful it would be if the very small chance came through. If Romney or McCain were the other options, I'd be at a 1 right now with the numbers where they are. Trump makes it a 3.
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11-02-2020, 11:28 AM | #5521 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
This is the other side of the house that I just don't know about. There are some big blue warning lights that there could totally be a blue wave. The polling weights have all changed to fight the last war, the district polls are sounding good, the early voting numbers are favorable to Dems in a lot of places, and there are so many incumbent headwinds from COVID to the economy If 2016 hadn't been the most recent election and we didn't know Trump and the GOP were going to amp their election theft game up to 11 (legal challenges galore, openly welcoming voter intimidation and a police force that spent much of the summer looking the other way, removal of the consent decree, a biased Supreme Court), we'd already have this as fait accompli. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 11-02-2020 at 11:29 AM. |
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11-02-2020, 11:30 AM | #5522 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
It's definitely interesting seeing the difference in betting markets like this and PredictIt compared to 538 or any other site that estimates these kinds of things. Of course a betting market just needs to set the odds to get even money on both sides, is there big money coming in on Trump from MAGA idiots - or is that really a more accurate picture. Also, -190? Woo, makes me happy already to have gotten my $$ in at -160. |
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11-02-2020, 11:31 AM | #5523 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I would be very cautious using betting markets to estimate someones chances of winning a particular state/ office. The books goal is to have as much money on both sides and mitigate their exposure. While some books take a position on an event, it is much more common for them to adjust the lines to factor in their risk. So if Biden is at -200 to win the election and Trump +180, and the line moves from Biden -185 Trump +155 it doesn't change the likelihood of the outcome, it just means money came in on one side or the other and the book is balancing its risk by changing the odds to get more money on both sides. |
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11-02-2020, 11:33 AM | #5524 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I listen to a lot of betting shows/podcasts. I don't think it is MAGA idiots per se, it is people betting Trump at plus odds because they think there is value there. |
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11-02-2020, 12:11 PM | #5525 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Trafalgar's chief pollster went on Hannity and said he has Trump up 1 in Pennsylvania but the Dems will try to steal it and that's the only way they're winning the state.
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11-02-2020, 12:40 PM | #5526 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Some of the election news today:
Its a couple days old, but cook report lays out how difficult it's going to be for Trump to win this election. Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up | The Cook Political Report Nate Silver said that their projection is bouncing between 89.9 and 90.1 right now for those watching. He said it could hit 92 or go as low as 88 but where it is now is likely where it's going to remain with the deadline for polls being midnight tonight. Nate Cohn showed a poll that has Pennsylvania supporting fracking 52/27 vs 44/42 nationally. That could be why the race there is tight ing a little while other states have been stable or slightly trending toward Biden. He also said people are sleeping on Biden's chances in Florida. Also Michigan cities with a population over 25k will be given 10 hours today to start processing (but not counting) absentee ballots. And apparently going back to '04 only one presidential candidate lost a state in which he or she polled above 49% going into election day (Romeny Florida 2012). |
11-02-2020, 12:47 PM | #5527 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Biden campaign released some internal numbers.
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11-02-2020, 12:54 PM | #5528 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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I guess no matter which side wins, they stole it.
__________________
Why choose failure when success is an option? |
11-02-2020, 12:54 PM | #5529 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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That seems like a good way to motivate R/demotivate remaining D from showing up to vote over the next 48 hours. Interesting choice.
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11-02-2020, 12:59 PM | #5530 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Anyone else with anxiety feel that if they sneeze wrong they will mess things up?
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11-02-2020, 01:01 PM | #5531 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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One trend Ive seen from my many Dem friends is they are anxious because they don't want to be shocked again. They want to be prepared if it happens again. I really don't get this mindset. If Trump wins, I'm going to feel not one bit better because I "prepared" for it. The country is doomed. We have another 4 years of insane crap to deal with. That's true whether I saw it coming or not. However, if Biden wins as expected, then all I did is worry myself and cause unnecessary stress over an election that was in the bag.
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11-02-2020, 01:05 PM | #5532 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Doesn't say where the early votes are coming from either. So if that remaining 45% that hasn't voted in Iowa, say, is 70% R historically, then you're fucked.
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My listening habits |
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11-02-2020, 01:06 PM | #5533 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
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I'm a little worried about PA because I think the Trump ads are hitting on all of the key points to sway voters. Jobs are at risk and taxes will go up even to the point of taken Biden's words out of context and quoting "experts". Biden seems to be vote for me because I'm not Trump.
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"It's a great day for hockey" - "Badger" Bob Johnson |
11-02-2020, 01:12 PM | #5534 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
another thing that could be happening, and I would have to go back and look at Bidens odds, is we could be seeing a buyback on Trump at plus money. If people were able to get Biden at plus money say, six months ago, they can now buy back Trump at plus money and guarantee a profit. So I just checked, on 3/30 Biden was +125 to win. So if you bet him then and Trump now you are guaranteed a profit. If you got him say, after the early primaries you may have gotten him at monster odds. Last edited by Lathum : 11-02-2020 at 01:14 PM. |
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11-02-2020, 01:13 PM | #5535 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Yup. This is why I think at least some level of civil unrest is unavoidable no matter who wins.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
11-02-2020, 01:27 PM | #5536 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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Quote:
Yeah “50K” plus people at a rally in the shitty Butler airport other night. Dropped some people off there and it was mayhem |
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11-02-2020, 01:36 PM | #5537 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
Those numbers don't scream encouraging to me, honestly. Vermont, Colorado, and Virginia were never really toss-ups. Upper Midwest (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) looking promising. That gets Biden to 253. Arizona (11) and North Carolina (15) looking strong. That would be 26 EV and the ballgame. Georgia (16 EV) at +4 with only 21% to go also looks better than I'd expect while Nevada (6) at +4 with 20% to go is a little scary (tho at 80%, there's not a lot of votes out there to make up ground). Maybe all of those fall the way they are looking right now and it doesn't matter. That's 299 but some of those are a bit tenuous. But then the news gets a lot iffier. On the other hand, Texas looks mostly done unless there's some gotv magic that I'm not seeing. Florida (+2/20% left), Ohio (+4/47%), NE-2 (+6/40%), Iowa (+10/56%), and Pennsylvania (+big/64%) are some combination of too close and/or too much left to count. This does seem to bode well for Dems in the Senate, looking at where they are polling better than expected. SI
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11-02-2020, 01:43 PM | #5538 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
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For Nevada I always follow Jon Ralston for the election. He said Biden has already built up a bigger margin in Clark County than Hillary and he predicted Biden would win by about 4.
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11-02-2020, 01:49 PM | #5539 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-02-2020, 02:16 PM | #5540 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
I'm very confident that NV stays blue as long as Harry Reid is still alive. He's got one of the last machines in politics.
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11-02-2020, 02:22 PM | #5541 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Our mailbox has never been as full as it has been in the last 2-3 weeks. Today's highlights were four mailers from Cunningham, two from Tillis, three on the state treasurer's race, and several other single ones.
RE: the polls here--Cunningham and Cooper are still enjoying a larger lead than Biden. Cooper's is still consistently double digits.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 11-02-2020 at 02:23 PM. |
11-02-2020, 02:26 PM | #5542 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
My wife's parents are going to be flabbergasted.. or, more likely, think "Comrade Cooper" stole the election.
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11-02-2020, 02:27 PM | #5543 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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I think I get the same mailer from Victoria Spartz every day.
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Why choose failure when success is an option? |
11-02-2020, 02:29 PM | #5544 | ||
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Republicans suffer a loss in federal court on the Harris County, TX drive in ballots:
https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status...60800497672197 Quote:
Judge Hanen was also skeptical of why this complaint was brought to her today, the day before election day, when people had been voting this way for weeks. And earlier in the hearing: https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status...13435896066048 Quote:
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 11-02-2020 at 02:32 PM. |
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11-02-2020, 02:45 PM | #5545 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2004
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So feel free to tell me if I’m wrong but I keep seeing these arguments:
1. Rural areas shouldn’t be allowed to control cities, and conversely 2. Big cities shouldn’t be allowed to control the whole country. So aren’t both sides arguing for more local control and that the federal govt is too big? |
11-02-2020, 02:50 PM | #5546 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Quote:
Amazingly enough, we got none here today
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11-02-2020, 02:54 PM | #5547 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Quote:
Or just arguing that who 'controls' the country should be determined in a fair and balanced way that's not skewed by default/tradition to one of them based on a procedure/system from a past that has less and less in common with today in terms of the factors influencing the results under that system ? But then again the whole 'angst' about too big (an impact from) a federal government in the US seems very strange to me given the power that states actually have and how granular and 'local' certain institutions (like say Police/Sheriffs office, courts etc) actually are compared to elsewhere.
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11-02-2020, 02:54 PM | #5548 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Woohoo for the Federal Court rejecting the Texas lawsuit! I had seen that they were already geared up to locate those voters today if judge had thrown out the votes. Glad they don't have to do it now.
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
11-02-2020, 03:00 PM | #5549 |
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Spoiler: that's only because the USPS didn't deliver any of your mail SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
11-02-2020, 03:03 PM | #5550 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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I mean, this one looks like it may get called at 7:31ish.
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