2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Jas_lov]

Trafalgar, Susqueanna, Insider Advantage and Rasmussen are all right wing pollsters and they're all included in the PA average to make it look close.

[miami_fan]

Any initiatives down the ballot that you guys are keeping an eye on? Florida has three for me.

Amendment 1 wants to change the state constitution to say that ONLY citizens who are 18 years old can vote in Florida as opposed to the current EVERY citizen. I have no idea why we need to make this change. The Governor has no idea why we need to make this change. This allows me to jump to Amendment 4.

Amendment 4 will require voter approved constitutional amendments to be approved by voters in two general elections instead of one. Supporters say this is to prevent frivolous amendments from becoming law. The opposition see this as an attempt to make it harder for initiatives such as the restoring of felon voting rights and the legalization of medical marijuana to become law.

Amendment 3 is to move from closed primaries to top two primaries. Of course, the R's and D's are opposing this amendment,

[albionmoonlight]

Trump says "we have a very solid chance of winning," then immediately says, "I don't know what the chances are."

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) November 3, 2020

He HATES being President. He just wants to watch Fox News and shitpost and grift and have crowds worship him without all of these boring responsibilities. I think that he gets that he can have everything he likes about the job and none of the bad stuff as the head of Trump TV.

But he is incapable of admitting defeat.

[Lathum]

Recreational weed on the ballot here in Jersey. It is so funny to read comments on social media about how this will be the destruction of the free world as we know it if it passes.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

My map prediction.

That's where I've been for a while, but I'm - tenatively - leaning to the side where it's going be more one-sided. I.e. Georgia, Texas, flipping and Biden getting to around 400 EV. The turnout numbers just look so large that I don't think there's going to be enough Republican votes to even make it competitive. If there's more Trump support on election day than I expect, then I think you're right on the money here.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Any initiatives down the ballot that you guys are keeping an eye on? Florida has three for me.

Amendment 1 wants to change the state constitution to say that ONLY citizens who are 18 years old can vote in Florida as opposed to the current EVERY citizen. I have no idea why we need to make this change. The Governor has no idea why we need to make this change. This allows me to jump to Amendment 4.

Amendment 4 will require voter approved constitutional amendments to be approved by voters in two general elections instead of one. Supporters say this is to prevent frivolous amendments from becoming law. The opposition see this as an attempt to make it harder for initiatives such as the restoring of felon voting rights and the legalization of medical marijuana to become law.

Amendment 3 is to move from closed primaries to top two primaries. Of course, the R's and D's are opposing this amendment,

Colorado 115 is a 22 week abortion ban with no exceptions. It is interesting as this will b the most liberal state to take up that so far. I expect to go down in flames pretty easily.

[Ben E Lou]

For reference later, 538's numbers at shutdown time:
OVL: 89/10


Here are the states where the favorite is under 90%
AK: 85/15 Trump
AZ: 68/32 Biden
FL: 69/31 Biden
GA: 58/42 Biden
IA: 60/40 Trump
MT: 82/18 Trump
NC: 64/36 Biden
NH: 89/11 Biden
NV: 88/12 Biden
OH: 55/45 Trump
PA: 84/16 Biden
TX: 62/38 Trump

NOTABLES MISSING FROM ABOVE
WI: 94/6
MI: 95/5

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

For reference later, 538's numbers at shutdown time:
OVL: 89/10


Here are the states where the favorite is under 90%
AZ: 68/32 Biden
FL: 69/31 Biden
GA: 58/42 Biden
IA: 60/40 Trump
MT: 82/18 Trump
NC: 64/36 Biden
NH: 89/11 Biden
NV: 88/12 Biden
OH: 55/45 Trump
PA: 84/16 Biden
TX: 62/38 Trump

Alaska is 85/15 Trump

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Kodos

On Morning Joe, they seemed to think Texas is really in play for Democrats. We’ll see.

I think it's close but I think it'll fall short by about 2%. I don't see the math there.

I'm ok being wrong, though.

SI

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Racer

Alaska is 85/15 Trump

Heh. Stupid states not on the main map!

[Ben E Lou]

Fixed, and added WI/MI as "notables missing," as they are well over 90%.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

RCP has always been right leaning but credible.

That has apparently changed.

If you click this tweet, he goes on to explain

One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020

Interesting. That would probably explain it.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think it's close but I think it'll fall short by about 2%. I don't see the math there.

I'm ok being wrong, though.

SI

Yeah, that tweet with Biden's own internal numbers yesterday had them losing the early vote in TX by 2%. I don't know how that jibes with a win today, but it doesn't seem like it to me.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Butter

Yeah, that tweet with Biden's own internal numbers yesterday had them losing the early vote in TX by 2%. I don't know how that jibes with a win today, but it doesn't seem like it to me.

I'm just going on my own simple math from yesterday or two days ago, whenever that was based on early voter turnout.

That said, if people shift their preferences from Beto/Cruz just a point or two, Texas is in play. I think that's possible but unlikely - there are probably some Trump voters who would vote against Cruz and by 2018, you probably knew if you hated Trumpism already, and turnout was a bit lower. However, the increased turnout of young people and the pandemic/economic downturn could prove me wrong.

SI

[Ben E Lou]

Speaking of those little states at the bottom, there's something I can't recall. I know there have been brouhahas in the past when Presidential elections were called before polls close in some states. What if Biden takes FL/NC by, say, 10:30pm? The west coast closes at 11. Do the networks have an obligation to hold the obvious calls of Cali/Wash/Oregon--the ones that would put Biden over 270 in that scenario--until Hawaii closes their polls?

[Ksyrup]

In all seriousness, who waited to vote today? Yes, your procrastinators and your "today is election day and I'm voting today because I've always done it this way" people, but my greatest fear is it's mostly MAGA people left to vote. I don't have any idea why on earth someone would willingly wait until today to vote.

[Kodos]

My wife and I waited to vote in person today. We want our votes to be counted as early as possible. Plus, coronavirus isn't too bad here at the moment.

And as you might guess, they won't be MAGA votes.

[NobodyHere]

I am going to need a lot of rum and a big bucket of KFC to get through tonight.

[henry296]

Voting today. Too hard to get to county election place and didn’t feel need to mail in given those concerns. Live in relative small suburb and don’t think lines will be too bad. I’ll let you know about the lines in about 2 hours. Company also lets us take time off to vote no questions asked.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I am going to need a lot of rum and a big bucket of KFC to get through tonight.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by KSyrup

In all seriousness, who waited to vote today? Yes, your procrastinators and your "today is election day and I'm voting today because I've always done it this way" people, but my greatest fear is it's mostly MAGA people left to vote. I don't have any idea why on earth someone would willingly wait until today to vote.

Me - I always vote in person, I like it doing it that way, and my polling place is a well-oiled machine which rarely has a line so - why wouldn't I?

Speaking of which ... just voted, and today there was a line. This is anecdotal, but we're definitely in Trump country here. Democrats don't even waste their time running for county offices, so if you win the Republican primary you're in. Busiest I've seen this poll location going back several election cycles and most of the others there agreed with that assessment; one worker said it wasn't much different than '16. Still, this was a big surprise to me given now much this area did not turn out in the '18 midterms. I'm seeing it as evidence of the polarizing effect the last year's events have had.

If this ends up being a general trend, maybe Biden just has a solid victory here instead of a blowout, but I still see no way - even extrapolating - that it's likely to overcome all the early voting going the other way. There's just more numbers on that side.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

In all seriousness, who waited to vote today? Yes, your procrastinators and your "today is election day and I'm voting today because I've always done it this way" people, but my greatest fear is it's mostly MAGA people left to vote. I don't have any idea why on earth someone would willingly wait until today to vote.

In Texas, you don't have much of an excuse. Early voting is fairly plentiful and lines are much shorter than Election Day - it's just easier. There's a reason why people had done it before

But I know a lot of states don't have that robust of an Early Voting system and The President has definitely sewed as many seeds of doubt about vote by mail as possible. Even with a pandemic, I can see where "vote in person on Election Day" has the best chance of your vote being counted.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Speaking of those little states at the bottom, there's something I can't recall. I know there have been brouhahas in the past when Presidential elections were called before polls close in some states. What if Biden takes FL/NC by, say, 10:30pm? The west coast closes at 11. Do the networks have an obligation to hold the obvious calls of Cali/Wash/Oregon--the ones that would put Biden over 270 in that scenario--until Hawaii closes their polls?

I remember that they called Obama over McCain when California closed.

So I think that a state needs to close to call it, but if a candidate is >270 with called states, they call the whole thing

[Ksyrup]

I guess it depends on whether your state has early in-person voting. Certainly I understand voting today versus absentee ballot if those were your only choices. We've had 3 weeks here in KY to vote (including Saturdays) - I don't know why a single person would vote today.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Me - I always vote in person, I like it doing it that way, and my polling place is a well-oiled machine which rarely has a line so - why wouldn't I?

Speaking of which ... just voted, and today there was a line. This is anecdotal, but we're definitely in Trump country here. Democrats don't even waste their time running for county offices, so if you win the Republican primary you're in. Busiest I've seen this poll location going back several election cycles and most of the others there agreed with that assessment; one worker said it wasn't much different than '16. Still, this was a big surprise to me given now much this area did not turn out in the '18 midterms. I'm seeing it as evidence of the polarizing effect the last year's events have had.

If this ends up being a general trend, maybe Biden just has a solid victory here instead of a blowout, but I still see no way - even extrapolating - that it's likely to overcome all the early voting going the other way. There's just more numbers on that side.

I am still amazed/impressed that the GOP is having such high turnout. Normally, the people in charge get complacent. Their media has done a great job of keeping them engaged.

[Kodos]

CT doesn't have early voting, so it was either voting in person today, or doing the mail-in ballots. We have the mail-in ballots, but like someone mentioned, the best chance of our vote counting seems to be voting in person.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I am still amazed/impressed that the GOP is having such high turnout. Normally, the people in charge get complacent. Their media has done a great job of keeping them enraged.

Fixed that for you.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I guess it depends on whether your state has early in-person voting. Certainly I understand voting today versus absentee ballot if those were your only choices. We've had 3 weeks here in KY to vote (including Saturdays) - I don't know why a single person would vote today.

I really wish a new voting rights act were towards the top of the priorities of the next four years. Move Election Day to a Saturday, mandatory requirements around every voter getting a paper receipt of who they voted for, and mandatory free voter ID cards with a very easy program to get them. Then set up a bunch of rules for counties with populations >100K (or something like that - reasonable number, tho, not like 500K where hardly any counties fall into this): make 2-3 weeks of Early Voting with reasonable hours mandatory, must have a polling place within 3 miles of every house/apartment, must have X polling places for every Y amount of population, etc. Stop making our elections look like a banana republic so people can stop trying to rule it like one.

SI

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I am going to need a lot of rum and a big bucket of KFC to get through tonight.

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

The virus has me strongly considering going on a diet. My BMI is over 33.

Heck, I need to get in better shape regardless of the virus.

[Ghost Econ]

About 500 people in line to vote at one polling place when I dropped my kid off at school at 7. Early voting and mail has been going for quite some time, but I guess people just like cold lines.

Around us in SC, there's a clear delineation of support depending on which side of downtown you live. Our side, it's 20 to 1 Biden to Trump signs with house prices between 300-800k. The other side of downtown, they don't have signs, just million dollar houses.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I guess it depends on whether your state has early in-person voting. Certainly I understand voting today versus absentee ballot if those were your only choices. We've had 3 weeks here in KY to vote (including Saturdays) - I don't know why a single person would vote today.

My company allows for people to take the time to vote on Election Day. Yesterday afternoon, my VP sent out an email to everyone telling them they were excused to go vote today. He has people in 4-5 different locations across the US so polling options vary.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

My company allows for people to take the time to vote on Election Day. Yesterday afternoon, my VP sent out an email to everyone telling them they were excused to go vote today. He has people in 4-5 different locations across the US so polling options vary.

aren't companies legally required to provide people time off to vote?

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Lathum

aren't companies legally required to provide people time off to vote?

Not all states have these laws. Indiana is one of the states that doesn't.

Can I take off time from work to vote? State-by-state guide - Business Insider

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Recreational weed on the ballot here in Jersey. It is so funny to read comments on social media about how this will be the destruction of the free world as we know it if it passes.

As we all know Colorado and Washington state are complete shitholes because of weed .

Originally Posted by Lathum

aren't companies legally required to provide people time off to vote?

Hahahaha... I mean, yes, they are... but no one ever enforces it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

aren't companies legally required to provide people time off to vote?

Yeah, but what is "legally required to do anything" in an "at will" state where they can fire you for any reason? Like they literally can't fire you for voting but they can fire you "just because" and the reason might be because you agitated for time for voting.

SI

[Atocep]

One thing I've seen mentioned in a couple places is how partisan RCP has been as this polling season closed. They've phased out some really strong polls in favor of right wing polls that makes the election look far more competitive than it should be. For example their 2 week tolling average hasn't really been that. They've kept trafalgar polls in the average longer than far more accurate polls.

It's like they're trying to hedge their bets in the event Trump wins so they can claim their model was better than 538 and others.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I guess it depends on whether your state has early in-person voting. Certainly I understand voting today versus absentee ballot if those were your only choices. We've had 3 weeks here in KY to vote (including Saturdays) - I don't know why a single person would vote today.

7 days a week for 2 1/2 weeks in NC, including 3 full Sat/Sun weekends, polls opening at 8am all 7 days. Same-day registration allowed throughout that period. Unless you're incapacitated for the entire time, there's really no excuse whatsoever not to vote here, and no good reason to wait until today.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Atocep

One thing I've seen mentioned in a couple places is how partisan RCP has been as this polling season closed. They've phased out some really strong polls in favor of right wing polls that makes the election look far more competitive than it should be. For example their 2 week tolling average hasn't really been that. They've kept trafalgar polls in the average longer than far more accurate polls.

It's like they're trying to hedge their bets in the event Trump wins so they can claim their model was better than 538 and others.

I think so. If Trump wins, then they were "right."

And, if Trump loses, then they can say that they were just averaging other's polls. And they can become part of the right-wing media ecosystem, which seems like a pretty profitable place to be regardless of whether they were "right" or not.

[Kodos]

Lines are longer than I’ve ever seen, even at 10:30.

[Ghost Econ]

The right leaning polls are trying to factor in shy Trump voters. Those people probably existed, but that shame died a long time ago. Shy Trump voters don't exist anymore.

[Vegas Vic]

I don’t think Trump has any chance in Michigan or Wisconsin. This election will be decided by Pennsylvania. Whoever wins this state will win the election. I don’t see anyone winning Pennsylvania without also carrying the other battleground states.

In the unlikely event Trump wins Pennsylvania, the deciding factor won’t be taxes, race relations or COVID policy. It will be because of energy policy.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

In all seriousness, who waited to vote today? Yes, your procrastinators and your "today is election day and I'm voting today because I've always done it this way" people, but my greatest fear is it's mostly MAGA people left to vote. I don't have any idea why on earth someone would willingly wait until today to vote.

people in high populated areas that don't want to travel away from home to vote I'm guessing.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

Shy Trump voters don't exist anymore.

I don't believe this for a second. I admit to overestimating how many of them there are. To say they don't exist ignores what the shy Trump voter has been saying the entire election cycle. They will vote for him because he will speak for them and take the arrows that they have no desire to take.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Atocep

One thing I've seen mentioned in a couple places is how partisan RCP has been as this polling season closed. They've phased out some really strong polls in favor of right wing polls that makes the election look far more competitive than it should be. For example their 2 week tolling average hasn't really been that. They've kept trafalgar polls in the average longer than far more accurate polls.

It's like they're trying to hedge their bets in the event Trump wins so they can claim their model was better than 538 and others.

I really don't understand what RCP is doing. I think there's a business model in being Trafalgar and just flat out rigging polls to say what right-wing media wants to hear. There's also a business model in trying to be as accurate as possible regardless of what that says. I don't understand the model where the goal is only to be slightly skewed to one side. It seems like that's most likely to piss everyone off eventually.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I don't believe this for a second. I admit to overestimating how many of them there are. To say they don't exist ignores what the shy Trump voter has been saying the entire election cycle. They will vote for him because he will speak for them and take the arrows that they have no desire to take.

Ok, but last election there were 12% undecided voters late that overwhelmingly broke for Trump. This time undecideds are more like 2%. Wouldn't that further the narrative that the shy Trump voter is dead?

[kingfc22]

It's funny watching the voting lines on TV.

Mask = Biden vote
No Mask = Trump vote

I mean it really is that simple and ridiculous that we are at this point.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

It's funny watching the voting lines on TV.

Mask = Biden vote
No Mask = Trump vote

I mean it really is that simple and ridiculous that we are at this point.

So who's winning then-Masks or No Masks?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Well now you have insight as to why I'm fat.

[henry296]

Just voted. Line was 30 minutes long. Almost everyone had a mask on waiting in line but that is consistent with normal life in my town. Unlike kingfc22, I'm sure the majority were voting for Trump given the demographics of my town. I saw 1 husband/wife without a mask while waiting in line outside, but had her mask in while voting. No surprise she was wearing a MAGA hat.

One interesting note, is that we signed with a q-tip to prevent sharing the electronic pen which we could then throw away.

[Butter]

I'm looking forward to getting way fewer texts and targeted FB posts about voting, encouraging others to vote, and donating to whoever's campaign.